SPONSOR | Is silver's sudden surge just the beginning?
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Summary
In this episode of the Real Money Show, Jeremy Wiseman and Jerry Karayay discuss the dramatic price action in silver and gold over the past month and a half. They discuss what they believe is the cause of the price action and why they believe it is a structural issue.
Transcript
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Welcome to another edition of the Real Money Show. My name is Jeremy Wiseman. I'm joined by Jerry
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Karaya. Today's date is January 22. And as we're recording the show today, silver is up 34%. We're
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only a couple weeks, just over a couple weeks into the year, gold is up 13%. And you want to stick
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with us because we're going to bring some information to you that show you that this run
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is far from over. Jerry, should we just get into it? Let's get right into it. All right, let's let's
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jump into it. So first, I was doing some research going through all of the people we follow on X
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that are tracking all of the deliveries out of both the COMEX and the LBMA. Now COMEX is easier. LBMA
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doesn't do the type of reporting that's specific. So you have to track movements and such. But
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ultimately, the numbers are starting to look like over the last month and a half, over $2 billion
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worth of silver has come off the exchanges. Now what that means in the big picture is that the paper
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market that has been controlling the price of silver for decades is collapsing. It's now being
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trumped by physical precious metals, and it's becoming a structural issue.
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comments, Jerry. This is just what we're seeing. We've commented before about this is the removal
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away from the London, you know, the London pricing mechanism that has controlled the precious metals
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space for decades and centuries. And they've known one thing that gold and silver are the world's
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collateral that they can do many things with collateral gold and silver. This is the theme going
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forward. For me, in the next two years, that word of the of the next two years, it's a very popular one is a
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very powerful one is the word collateral. Now I want to add to this that if you think about silver, and gold,
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gold being taken off the standard in 1971. And what we believe, the op began, the psyop to get people out of
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holding physical gold and, and silver, you know, saying it's a relic, it doesn't pay a dividend, what
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are you a gold bug? All of these, it's a pet rock, all of these things to get people to not own it. And
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my own personal belief is because you can't steal money through inflation. If it's held in gold,
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right? I think Greenspan said that, right? The only thing that can protect you against it
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is physical gold, they create so many financials off of the one ounce of gold, the ratio today is
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about 135. If you go to usdebtclock.org, which I checked out before we started recording. If you
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look at that, it's a very, very exciting US debt clock, all of the data that you get all of the
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metrics, specifically the gold to M2 money supply different ratios. And one of those is looking at the
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ratio between how many paper derivatives of gold are there out there versus every one physical ounce
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available. And look at how many financials London created over 134 fake paper ounces versus that one
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ounce of gold in existence. And there's about, about 400 to one silver ounces, fictitious, artificial
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supply created out of thin air. And now that this is the reason why if I want to know if you have it,
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if I lost, if I lose confidence in new London, I want to take delivery off of that contract that
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I bought. Well, that's exactly it. That if you have all of this paper, and you're using it to push the
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price down, you're getting a compression in the price of silver. And so for decades, we didn't really
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know what the actual price of silver should be. And it was obviously undervalued. That was highlighted
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by the fact that the ratio had gone up to 80 to one, that's 80 ounces of silver for every ounce of gold.
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And it even got to one point to 101 and a little bit past. And so we're starting to see that ratio come
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down as physical product as being is being taken delivery of. And so the question becomes, well, what's
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going to keep that going? And one of the things that I'm finding with some people here and there, because
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we have to adapt to the changing markets, as you said, if the paper market is collapsing, because there's all
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these deliveries, then where should the actual price go? And I talked to some some people and they
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think, well, you know, once it gets to 35, I'll sell my silver at a low ratio. And I'm thinking, what's
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the expectation that the prices that it's going to go snap back to 80? How does it snap back to 80, Jerry,
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if the paper is being if it's being deleveraged? Right, there is no I mean, we're well supported
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when, you know, with the ratios. And when we look at the participation coming into who is demanding
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the gold, who's demanding the silver, these are countries now remonetizing gold and silver,
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introducing, reintroducing gold and silver for the for the reasons why they are considered money to be in
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the first place. These are intrinsic assets that have monetary attributes, and they have
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industrial attributes. And we're moving away from as we are now, you know, days into the World Economic
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Forum, meeting these this meeting in Davos, globalization has failed. And we're moving away
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from that big, one world style, one world government back to mercantilism, building of things. So the
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reshoring of physical gold and silver is happening, it's underway there, it's unstoppable.
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So meeting those ratios, I think we're well supported, especially for silver. It's on the
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critical minerals list. Yeah, okay. So you just critical, you just took Yeah, let's let's keep
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let's keep pushing this forward. Because ultimately, we've seen some great gains in silver over the last
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year. And the question becomes, does this still have legs? And so I want to bring some facts to the
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table. And we started with this idea of, well, they're taking all this delivery, $2 billion worth of
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silver being taken delivery. Let's add to that fact. We now also have that in November, the US added
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silver to the critical minerals list. And what that means is, is you now have to secure supply lines for
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silver, that you need to make sure that you're importing it, and that you have enough to produce
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what you want to produce. Now, I believe that in the States, and you can see a lot of evidence of this,
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they're building, they want to bring manufacturing back. And that's what Howard Lutnick was talking
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about, right? So you're going to need stuff to build all that. And you're going to be producing
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stuff when you have all these factories. And so you need to start securing a lot of silver. And that
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means you're now competing with China for the world of manufacturing. Interestingly enough, Canada does
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not have silver on the critical minerals list, although they were a bunch of miners did get together to
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say we we petitioned to put it on the list. Canada does not have it on the list. So we have silver
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now on the critical minerals list. And to add to that, China has now restricted exports on physical
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silver as of January 1. There's 44 companies that can export, but they have tightened control on that,
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you need to go to the government to see if they'll let you do it. And so they're not. And last year,
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I think they exported something like 5000 tons, which was a record, I don't know if it was five or
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eight, but it was a record at the time gone, that's no longer coming to global markets, it's going to
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stay domestically in China, which means supplies just got that much tighter in the physical market.
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So when you just start to look together, you have physical demand off the exchanges, you have
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critical mineral list in the United States, you have exports being restricted out of China. And let's add
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to the fact that last one, and then we can discuss is that the US with Korea zinc is funding a $7.4
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billion smelting facility for critical minerals in Tennessee. So you know that they have an issue of
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refining is another is another big problem. And that's not really going to be up and running until
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2030. Yeah, you can't just not it's not a, you know, you know, flip the switch. Yeah, of, you know,
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getting supply out of the ground, it's going to take a lot of time, especially here in Canada, cutting
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the red tape and getting getting out of the way and putting Canada back on the map with with silver
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mining. Remember back in the 80s, if you can recall, Canada was number one in silver mining, Jeremy,
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and we were still number four for gold mining and number four in oil. So as we're there's a push for
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resource, resources, and reshoring and protecting your infrastructure for the furtherance of, you know,
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building out technology, because the future of the economy involves technology, but you have to build
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it and it requires a lot of silver. Most of the industries require silver. If you look to the
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demand from Samsung, for example, they've secured directly from a mine two years worth of silver to
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meet their demands. So this totally goes against that. The AI Asian guy who says Samsung does not need
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silver. They're going to replace it with graphene. That's not the case. That's been debunked, by the
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way. Be careful of what you're taking in from the real this AI guy. Take it from these real guys over
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here that have been doing this since 2008 with the Real Money Show. And now you could see us on Rebel
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News. Yeah, I think, you know, you one thing I'm glad you bring him up because or it up because it's AI and
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we don't know who's behind it. But there is a lot of misinformation out there. There's a lot of
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various narratives coming into play in the precious metals market. You could stick with
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the regular fundamentals. I was just listening to an interview with Daniela Cambon with our
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favorite Michael Oliver, one of our favorites. And he was very much signaling an alert, his concern
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about the US dollar. And that's always been part of the fundamental reason to own physical gold and
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silver is the fact that the dollar is being made worthless every single day. If the government
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can print it, if the government can go into further debt, and you can feel it, we know Canadians can
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feel it because they can see it in prices have risen everywhere. And so how do you protect against
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that? Well, gold's up over 800%, I believe in the last 20 years. And you can see silver is starting to
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make some pretty big gains again, because it's no longer being suppressed by paper. And so it's a
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tremendous opportunity in that respect, it should be, you should be really excited where things can go.
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Actually, before we get back into the AI guy, and the multiple narratives, you know, you should be
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excited because, you know, it's funny, a lot of the banks are calling for $5,000 gold this year,
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their forecast was $5,000 gold, we're already at $4,900 on gold. And even Poland has approved their
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central bank to take delivery to accumulate 150 tons of gold. And just so you know, we're saying
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$2 billion ounce, $2 billion of silver off the exchanges, their gold acquisition approval is worth
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$23 billion. Oh, well, there you go. So at this point, they could probably buy all of the silver off
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the exchanges, I wonder what's stopping them in that case, they could become a titan in the silver
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market. But if you know, if you look at where gold's headed, because of dollar devaluation,
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people don't, you know, countries don't want to hold the US dollar anymore. This could push gold to
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$8,000. And if you were to add 15% a year for the next five years, you're actually get to $10,000.
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I digress, we can talk about projections, we can talk about bull markets and how many, you know,
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what the gains look like in past bull markets. But just at $8,000 an ounce, if silver were to
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maintain 35 to 1 ratio, that puts it to 228. And if it were to go to its historic ratio of 16 to 1,
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you're looking at $500 an ounce. Now, I'm not going to hang my hat on a ratio, it's part of
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other criteria. But it's just interesting sometimes to play with that math.
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Yeah, you have to. And I think it's very important to do that. We use ratios,
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we use cycles, because bottom line, as Canadians, you and I know, you can't trust that CPI,
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the CP lie at two, 3%. And it begs the question, do we really want to settle with yield? Does the
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yield of three and a half really cut it? When you're decreasing purchasing power by double digits,
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I suggest maybe it's around 12 to 13% inflation, decreasing your purchasing power, decreasing your
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portfolio. The word of the for the next two years, and going back to Michael Oliver, if I may,
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you know, looking ahead his forecast, he called about $200 to $300 silver within a few months.
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After that, that interview, he upped his projections even higher because of the T bond issue.
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The US Treasury, which is the very fabric of the United States financial system is under fire.
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Many countries have already began dumping massive amounts of treasuries to acquire gold and to acquire
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real things. And this is what we're what we're expecting with the move towards recattle, bringing
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back collateral to the words the US Treasury to collateral bring the collateral back to the US
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dollar. Because remember, what is the best collateral right now the US Treasury is backed by
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paper and paper backing paper will eventually like Voltaire says, go back to its intrinsic value of
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zero, it loses its complete purchasing power. And that's what we're witnessing as Canadians.
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So you need to convert out of fiat paper currencies that can go to zero and roll into and convert into
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ounces in and of itself valued in ratios and cycles. And this begs to question, you know,
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when will this happen? So what's going to happen? What's going to be that that that pinprick?
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In in past, maybe the yen carry trade markets, how many times over does does the price of gold and
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silver rise? I understand gold something like eight times and the low in in what was it 2016 2015 was
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around just over $1,000. Yeah, so that would put it somewhere into the 8,000 range, right?
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For silver, I would think it's in the two to $300 range, I believe.
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No, but what is the amount of times it goes up?
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Throughout the for the 50 year period? Yeah, I think it's about seven times.
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Caught me off guard with that one. Okay, we'll have to get it for the next show.
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Let's go back to some of these other narratives. Because one of the things, you know, I took a
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phone call this morning, someone who's looking to get into the market. And she said, you know,
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I was ready to get in last week, I wanted to do this and do it this way. And started talking to
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friends or reading articles. And there it cast a lot of doubt into the market. And we mentioned
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this AI guy. Because what we've noticed with him, for example, is putting out tons of content,
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which is very expensive to put out that quickly. And it seems to have some facts wrapped in with
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some misinformation, funding and just enough to kind of give people pause. What are some of the
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concerns that people are having right now in terms of what's giving them pause? And what kind of
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narratives are you seeing? And how they they may or may not be correct? Yeah, so John Rubino put out
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is this guy really a false false flag. And you know, really, we have to analyze what's the real motive
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behind here, because he's talking a lot about silver truths. So silver is the main focus. And if you look at
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the overall pie of who uses silver from the Silver Institute, you know, out of the 100% pie, 10% is
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you and I investors that stack precious metals to preserve our purchasing power. 95% is industries,
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countries that are remonetizing their systems back with gold and silver. So what's the real deal? Why
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are they why is he talking to the to us, the people, you know, he's using things like, you know,
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there is going to be a crash, the flash crash sign teleports to 84, then $10 smash triggers,
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triggers Monday manic, and silver crashes, he's using all of these headlines. But we know and
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throughout this time, that silver is very buoyant, we're supported. So what gives why I believe Jeremy
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throughout all of his headlines, he's talking to you, he doesn't want you to take your money out of
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the banks. Similarly, this is the reason why the World Economic Forum and institutions, they require
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your money in the bank, because it's a fractional reserve banking system, they need your money in
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the to be pledged in the banking system, your money is their collateral, I don't think so. Your money is
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your own collateral. And when you roll out of these banking systems, and you roll into outside of the
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banking system, with physical gold and gold and silver that cannot be hacked, it cannot be bailed
00:17:25.300
in, it's outside of the banking system. This is what people do, they want to move out and hedge
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themselves firstly in position for the topside potential with what's happening. A lot of individuals
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like Daniel Galley, he wants pledged that, you know, he pledged support for silver that you can
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participate in the silver stock out that there's silver is going to be running out, and that you want
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to participate on BNN. He's the TD Bank strategist for commodities, he said that he was on board.
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And all of a sudden, he capitulated and said, well, silver is going to crash. And there's no silver
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stock out guys don't nothing to look over here. And then he launched a short position, calling for $40
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silver, shocking everybody guys, and maybe I'm gonna hesitate here, Jerry, I don't think I should buy
00:18:06.600
silver, because it's gonna drop says Daniel Galley. Well, he had a stop loss at $92, which he got
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stopped out. So not a very good call. And the forecasts are much higher for so, you know, you
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know, filter the news, speak to gentlemen, speak to individuals and professionals like Jeremy and
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myself, who, you know, we, we, you know, we put try to poke holes in as much, much data that we get
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and trying to filter through the noise. Well, I think, look, it's not about trying to come up with
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a narrative. It's here, here are the facts. We had $2 billion, $2 billion worth of silver taken off
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the exchanges that we can see the paper is collapsing, which means the market is now moving
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towards if you you either have it or you don't. And we have a motto, if you can't hold it, you don't
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own it. And it seems that a lot of entities, whether it's countries, industry, maybe part of the
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investment, they're saying, Look, we need the product, it's not good enough for just to roll over
00:19:02.720
futures contracts, we want that physical, and you're gonna have to figure out how to get it to us.
00:19:06.920
So that's a huge part. And then when you add to them the facts of the China isn't going to export
00:19:13.640
it, that it's on the critical mineral list, that they're building that they're building a $7 billion
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smelting facility for critical minerals. I was actually just talking to a client before before
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we came here. She lives in Mexico. And she's all up on the on the market, which was amazing,
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because I said to her, I said, Whoa, the student has become the master because she was schooling me
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on on everything that's going on in Mexico, because apparently, they are not making it easy to get the
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permits to actually mine the stuff, right? So you still have a lot of pushback in the in the industry. And I
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was listening to an interview with Keith Neumeier, who's is it CEO or head of First Majestic
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Mining. And he was saying, Look, we're overflowing with cash, but we need to see silver at $70 for a
00:20:02.740
prolonged period before we start investing and putting a lot of money into it. And the irony, of
00:20:08.300
course, of that is that yes, he probably will see $70 sustained. The price of silver may be 120 by the
00:20:14.740
time they decide to start expanding. So there's a lot of real things happening in the world. And I find
00:20:23.080
personally, from a psychological standpoint, a lot of people don't like it when their friends do
00:20:29.220
something different. Very true. They they don't they want you in a in a box, they want you to do what
00:20:36.340
they are used to doing the old and and at the end of the day, look, a lot of a lot of precious metals
00:20:42.180
owners are independent thinkers. It takes a lot to say, Look, you can call me a gold bug, and I'm still
00:20:47.580
going to own this stuff. You know, and so it's been a great ride. And we do think when we put all
00:20:53.860
the fundamentals together, and including the dollar, etc, that we're in for a much a much bigger ride
00:21:00.580
from here. Yeah, absolutely. You know, we're we have the reasons why this is could this market is
00:21:06.640
going to continue much higher. The fundamentals remain with the old fundamentals. And there are
00:21:11.200
new fundamentals at play, the converging between, you know, gold being monetary, silver being industrial,
00:21:17.220
they're converging, they're they're going back into different roles. And with the US introducing,
00:21:22.720
you know, certain bills, that introduced the gold standard again, and they're talking about this
00:21:28.320
table bills that repeals income tax, we're moving back towards a place where, you know, building things
00:21:34.460
were important. And that is taking the lead here for the world, whatever the US adopts, the world adopts,
00:21:40.960
that's always been the case. And right now, the US made it very clear that globalism has failed,
00:21:46.660
it's failed America, and they're moving in a different direction. And we share the largest
00:21:50.840
border with them. So it's going to be very interesting to see what Canada does. And but
00:21:56.160
we as Canadians, we follow the same trajectory. If you see the writing on the wall, you want to roll
00:22:02.360
out and roll into precious metals, because that is going to lead the way for you, you're going to
00:22:06.400
create a relevancy in your portfolio. Gold and silver are very relevant right now. And by adding it in
00:22:12.100
your portfolio, you're just creating a moat around your around your wealth, and you're positioning
00:22:17.260
it for the growth that's that's upcoming. Yeah. And I think this all comes around this idea of
00:22:22.500
there's a new paradigm here. Absolutely. There's a new paradigm of not not financialization, but
00:22:27.780
actual physical and collateral, as you mentioned, and that's what's going to be driving the markets
00:22:33.080
forward. And we're not seeing mass participation in North America, although Josh Philip Fair from
00:22:41.540
um, uh, Arizona metals, Scottsdale's Scottsdale mint. Um, he said that the CEO of the wine,
00:22:49.880
Wyoming, Wyoming reserve, uh, that they just purchased their first physical gold, the state
00:22:56.240
of Wyoming just purchased physical gold. So they're just starting to get into the market. And they're
00:23:03.440
making big moves, right? Uh, we know in the United States that Florida has legalized it for a tender
00:23:10.420
again, that you could pay your taxes with it, for instance. So imagine being able to pay to be able
00:23:15.720
to buy a house with it, right? As, as cause you can't do that here. Right. Right. But maybe in the
00:23:21.340
future, I think as well, what's really something to think about, let your mind go a little bit,
00:23:26.220
um, is if you're going to unleash industry, you're going to unleash entrepreneurialism. And you could only
00:23:34.760
imagine that, you know, in the last 20 years, we got an electric car, we got this, but we could be on the
00:23:43.620
verge of seeing multiple Steve Jobs, multiple Elon Musk's that are going to create all sorts of things
00:23:50.520
that are going to need a whole bunch of silver in them. So I think it's going to be very exciting in
00:23:56.000
that respect. And I think the takeaway, uh, we hope is going to be that this is, this is going to be
00:24:02.040
sustained for many years to come. Yeah. We just don't know exactly how far it can go, but I would
00:24:07.140
say it's great to see the compression being released. We use the, uh, analogy of a beach ball
00:24:13.700
being held underwater for decades. And I don't think we've reached the surface level of the water yet,
00:24:18.860
but I think that it will find our way and then, and then start to look at gold and where gold's
00:24:24.500
at it and where the, where the ratio between silver and gold can be. And along the way,
00:24:29.020
we still have to look at where's inflation, where's the supply demand. Um, what, you know,
00:24:35.060
all of those things that we're looking at, the ratios are one aspect. So it shouldn't just be,
00:24:41.220
where's the price that doesn't tell us a whole lot. We have to look at underlying fundamentals
00:24:45.560
and see, okay, is there more mine supply coming online? Are we still in deficit? Well, what's the
00:24:51.100
demand being like for industry? And it just seems like we're really a long way away and investors
00:24:56.520
are still, haven't quite jumped in. Not at all. I mean, we're handling as much as we can. It's been
00:25:02.100
a hectic pace here at Guildhall with people trying to, you know, get their riff, riff withdrawals
00:25:07.820
underway. We help people to take physical delivery out, um, in kind, in your hands, out of your
00:25:13.000
registered plans. Um, and you know, the, the trend, the transfer period from institution to us,
00:25:19.360
that's taking long, the, the, the pushback that people are getting. So you really have to push
00:25:24.440
back and fight for your money these days. Just to remind you, this is your money, your wealth,
00:25:29.420
your inheritance that you fought for, that you work for, and you don't need to work two or three
00:25:34.520
jobs to, to maintain a good standard of living. We believe very strongly that this is the future,
00:25:39.980
that this is going to be life-changing for yourself, your family members. And we would love
00:25:43.840
for you to, you know, pick up the phone and give us a call. That famous number, as you know, is 1-877-8-SILVER
00:25:49.800
and the website is guildhallwealth.com or, you know, give us a call directly. We're always standing
00:25:54.860
by ready to take your call or just come and pop into the office. Although it has been very busy.
00:25:59.140
So please be patient with us. Leave a message. We will get back to you. We are working overtime,
00:26:04.140
but ultimately with Guildhall, we have a motto. If you can't hold it, you don't own it. And within the
00:26:09.200
registered accounts, which we love, it allows you to hold actual physical gold and silver. It's
00:26:14.920
stored in a Brinks depository, fully allocated, fully segregated. You maintain complete ownership
00:26:21.300
and it's held in a vault outside the banking system. And on that, there's been some crazy,
00:26:27.360
you know, fake news on that saying, oh, somehow Brinks is stealing from people's accounts. Listen,
00:26:33.060
Brinks don't care. They, they are union workers. They do their job. They put the product
00:26:38.980
into the safety deposit box or they put it into the sub account. They put it up on the thing and
00:26:44.300
they are, that's it. They take, they have massive amounts of insurance on their business. Yes. Okay.
00:26:50.660
And every person who works there has to make sure that they're on the right, all the policies are
00:26:55.320
in place so that they're not on the wrong side of that insurance. So it's such, it, it, it's just
00:27:00.200
unbelievable the type of information that's coming out, trying to stop people from getting into the
00:27:05.080
market, but it does feel sort of like the type of desperation that we're seeing at Davos and how
00:27:12.320
the globalists are just, it just all smacks of desperation. So the messages is, is don't fall for
00:27:19.340
it. Talk to experts, look at, do your own research. Yes. And you'll see the facts we've, we've presented
00:27:25.620
them today. So if you want to hold some physical gold and silver, you can buy it direct with Guildhall.
00:27:30.740
You can store it in a depository. We started about 500 ounces of silver. And what's great about that
00:27:36.680
is it means your product is secure. It's insured. It's there for ease of liquidity. You can always
00:27:42.600
take delivery of it. If you'd like, it's always yours. That was nice. And, and then within the
00:27:49.700
registered accounts, again, if it's a TFSA, you decide you want to take delivery, no problem. There's
00:27:54.480
very little red tape with that in a, in a RSP TFS, uh, RSP or, um, a riff, a lift, uh, you can take
00:28:02.600
delivery. You just have to be willing to pay the withholding taxes or the income tax on the new fund
00:28:08.700
months, the new funds that you've made. Right. We should definitely get into the whole income tax
00:28:16.540
withholding tax issue in the next show because, um, it's something not to be feared.
00:28:23.780
But I do want to highlight, you know, for the last 20 years, plus, you know, Guildhall has been
00:28:28.080
providing the, the, the means for Canadians and, and, and people from around the world to get into
00:28:33.020
physical precious metals and sit, you know, from the very beginning since 2002, my hats off to Jeremy
00:28:38.000
because him and his father were the architects or the first and the pioneers to be able to hear from
00:28:43.680
the people. First of all, I have these RSPs and he'd want to use them, want to protect them.
00:28:47.320
They were the ones that were the architect, the city, this whole, uh, solution of bridging the
00:28:51.900
gap. How do we get physical precious metals within RSPs? Guildhall became the pioneers of this in 2015
00:28:57.960
and it was Jeremy's vision with Paul. So my hats off to you guys to bringing this to the,
00:29:02.700
for the Canadian, uh, landscape. And it's been an honor to help Canadians realize what they have to do
00:29:08.240
roll out of the RSPs. It's a lateral transfer. Yeah. There was no taxation at that time,
00:29:12.720
but we'll get into the tax part in the next episode. Yeah. It's, it's definitely not to be
00:29:16.520
feared and, and the type of money that's being made, you can definitely overcome it. Uh, if you
00:29:21.460
like what you hear, get in touch with us. We'll show you how to get involved in the market. We
00:29:25.540
want to thank everyone for joining us this week and Jerry, thank you for answering some great
00:29:30.080
questions and bringing good discussion to the show. Uh, that's it for another edition of the Real
00:29:35.140
Money Show. We can't wait to speak to you next week. Feel free to reach out to us at
00:29:39.220
guildhallwealth.com and please be patient. We are doing our best, but we will, we will return your
00:29:44.300
call and answer all of your questions and help you get into the physical gold and silver market.