SPONSOR ｜ Tether’s gold grab is a no-brainer for crypto giant
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Summary
In this episode of the Real Money Show, Jeremy Wiseman and Jerry Karasay discuss the direction of the market and the impact of Tether, the world's largest stable coin, on the gold and silver markets.
Transcript
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Welcome to another edition of The Real Money Show. My name is Jeremy Wiseman. I'm joined
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by Jerry Karaya. And at Guildhall Wealth, we deal in only physical gold and silver,
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which is what we're going to be talking about today. Of course, it's making waves into different
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markets, specifically crypto markets, as well as AI, which we're going to talk about as well.
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For those that want to hold physical gold and silver as part of your portfolio, one of the
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things that we focus on at Guildhall is helping people to hold actual physical gold and silver
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in registered accounts where you own it directly. This is not a pool account. This is not a certificate.
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This is not an ETF. This is actual real ownership of your products held in a vault facility outside
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the banking system. So we have a motto, if you can't hold it, you don't own it. And this definitely
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passes the sniff test in that regard. You can even go to the vault and personally audit your holdings,
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which is still, to me, one of the coolest things. Proof in the pudding. Exactly. It still is a great
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thing for me. And we've been doing this for almost 10 years in registered accounts. So today is the
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27th. Silver's trading at 53.37. Gold's trading at 41.58. Pretty nice move up in silver today.
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Is this the start of something, a line of trajectory we should get used to?
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Absolutely. We had a good pullback the last couple of weeks where silver tested in the
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upper 40s. Now we're clearing 50 and we're going to retest the 54 mark. So that was the all-time
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high that we tested about a month and a half ago. We're not far away. Yeah, we're not far away at
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all. But overall in the year, it's a good year. So far, silver's up about 80% year to date and gold's
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up about 55, 60%. So a lot of the things that we've been having conversations with clients at the office
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is, is it over, right? New potential people getting involved in the market. A lot of our clients,
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people are wondering, okay, it's at all-time highs. Is it over? And of course, when you start to look
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at all the fundamentals and all of the things that are going on in the world, you realize, no, no,
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we're nowhere close. And there's a lot of different things we can get into on that topic alone.
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However, let's start with the cryptoverse because this week, actually in the last couple of days,
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one of the world's largest stable coins made headlines for something that would probably make
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most crypto people kind of upset, which is that Tether is now holding more gold than some small
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central banks like Hungary and Korea, not North Korea, but Korea. That's how much gold they're
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holding. Before we get into this, so people can understand the importance of this and what it can
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mean to the potential of gold going forward. What is Tether exactly? So Tether is the world's
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largest stable coin and it's used as a bridge between when you trade cryptocurrencies, whether
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it be Ethereum or Bitcoin, you would jump into USDT, which is the Tether. It's supposed to represent
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the US dollar, a cash, a cash position, and it's supposed to be backed one-to-one with US Treasuries.
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And that was an issue. It's never been audited. Now it's a large market, larger than the US Treasury
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market. So, you know, there was a lot of issue regarding that, the transparency behind it.
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In fact, it actually made news in July of this year where Besson passed the Genius Act to ensure
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that this thing is back one-to-one. And that's when they went scrambling to start buying some real
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collateral to back up the stable coin. The treasury is, you know, it's all fiat. So having this large
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stable coin now acquiring gold is a huge signal and this is the demand. You know, demand coming into
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gold and silver is a big sign that entities, countries are looking to boost that side of the
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balance sheet. So here are the numbers. We've got the Tether market size is $150 billion.
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They're holding $135 billion in US Treasuries. They're holding $14 billion in gold or 116 tons.
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And they're holding $8.8 billion in Bitcoin. So in terms of the debate for, you know, you think
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about Bitcoin people, they're often telling you to sell all your gold. Of course.
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And now here's Tether holding more gold than Bitcoin. What does this say for the cryptoverse
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that you have a company wanting to be stable, that they need to be, but that their choice for
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stability isn't necessarily Bitcoin. It's actual gold. That's right. You have to back this asset,
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this currency with something. It needs to be backed by something, what they called a relic
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or a tradition with the very, you know, what money is. Money is gold. Gold has survived for
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thousands of years as the most liquid asset class and the most solid. It's beyond language,
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beyond borders. Every single country is acquiring gold at an insatiable pace. And if you look at the
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demand coming from Tether, now acquiring about $300 million this year, buying into precious metals,
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buying into gold. It's the largest gold buyer right now in the world, passing Kazakhstan.
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And, you know, this is the demand that we're talking about, why this market will continue
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to rise. The gold market and the silver market are not rising because of speculation, because of data,
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because of inflation. Those things are going to be there. The gold and silver market is a scarce
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market, especially silver. But the gold market is being introduced, reintroduced to the system.
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And then we're going to see a bridging. You know, the old SWIFT system where money flows and
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people can get locked out and accounts frozen and countries can get sanctioned because they're on
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the SWIFT system. So this is an alternative. It's much faster. So we're leveling up and we're now
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seeing emerging. Emerging with money, with technology and the treasury. So we're seeing a bridging
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happening here. So we have to follow this amazing trend. Do you think that them tether holding gold
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can help bring people into the crypto sphere or equally, do you think it's like, does it upset
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people, upset the crypto sphere that they're holding gold? I think it makes sense in terms of what I
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thought was interesting, by the way, sorry to derail my own question. But this idea that they want to peg
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tethered to the US dollar, but the dollar has no peg. So how do you know what the value of the dollar
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is? Right. So their choice to do that is to say, we're going to hold bonds, we're going to hold
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crypto, and we're also going to hold gold. And if we hold all of these three things, we'll have these
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three pillars that give us stability in the market. So I found that very interesting that it's, well,
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you can't get quite a peg unless the US was pegged to something, which it's not. So their idea of
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making, you can't peg something that's completely free floating as of right now. But do you think
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that having gold brings people to the crypto verse? Equally, do you think it makes people who are in the
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crypto verse? Think a little bit about the advantages of having gold? Well, I think, you know,
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the debate, I think it's over regarding where it gets its value from, where these cryptos get its
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value from. And with tether, calling it a stable coin without a true and proper measurement or backing
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of something, that was the risk. So I think it does introduce to the crypto space, the importance
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of holding something that is actually tangible and scarce, so that we can measure up and actually find
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value for your cryptos, for your gold reserves, for your paper. Because the problem initially was the
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paper markets and the currency printing that has been going on for decades in the US, QE1, QE2,
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the Federal Reserve just printed another round of an injection of $130 billion. So they're just
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printing the currency. We have to measure it. Well, gold has measurements. We measure it to the M2
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money supply. So we have a measurement of where we should be going and how much of that debt, how much
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of that tether needs to be backed up. So it's going to bridge, I think it's going to help with the
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understanding of what money is. So on the demand side, this has been a pretty
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good quarter for tether buying physical gold. Are there signs that this has stopped? Or are they
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going to continue to grow? And if the crypto market and industry is going to continue to grow, then
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demand for tether is going to continue to grow. So they're going to have to continue to grow their
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gold holdings as well, unless the price doubles or triples and keeps up in that regard.
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Yeah, exactly. Now, here was a here was an interesting quote from Vince Lancey this week,
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if China owns, and we have to keep an eye on China, because there's a race for gold. And there's a race
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for, I guess, you know, global dominance, you know, there's a race for stuff these days, there is a race
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for economic dominance. So China has been hoarding gold, they stopped the exports of silver. And he wrote,
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China owns its gold gold through its people. And the US is now investing in corpse, it's deemed are
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important to the US existing, including tether. So this is what is being used by the US to bolster
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their reserves, not just in tether, but gold, because it's directly related, you're now backing
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your tether with gold, you're pegging it to gold eventually. And then I think the next step would be
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introducing it to the Treasury market, and then US adoption. Yeah, you know, I know China does
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encourage its citizens to own physical gold. We're going to talk about this right now regarding the
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US and how they could be encouraging corporations to hold gold. I think for Canadians, we don't have
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as much gold in our reserves as tether does, but we can buy it ourselves, right? And so the idea,
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of course, is that you, as the individual can own physical gold, and not just paper gold,
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not just have exposure to physical gold, but to actually own the physical gold. And that's what
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we help people do at Guildhall. So you can go to guildhallwealth.com and you can buy the product
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personally, you can come to the office, schedule an appointment and purchase it direct, or you can
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use our e-store to do it, you can use our depository services so that you have ease of liquidity,
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whether you're traveling anywhere around the world, or maybe you're a snowboard thinking this time
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of year, let's, let's go away. But you might want some liquidity, it's easy to sell on a phone call.
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And then of course, the registered accounts that I mentioned at the top of the show, let's talk
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about AI, because we now have an executive order about the Genesis mission. What is the Genesis
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mission, so that we can see just exactly how much silver is going to be used over the next several
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years and what that could potentially mean for higher prices?
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Yeah, so it just got passed this week. Breaking news, President Trump just signed an executive
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order akin to the Manhattan Project. We talked about it last time we were here on the show,
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how the US for the nuclear bomb needed so much silver. The news is talking about this build out
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of AI, which is understandable. Everyone's really using it. It's replacing a lot of jobs. It's a big
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worry for people. Or creating jobs. Or creating jobs. That's what your perspective is. Whatever
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your stance is, exactly. But the US, they just launched the Genesis project, and it was an
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executive order by President Trump yesterday. And he said basically that America is in a race for
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global technology dominance in the development of artificial intelligence, AI, an important frontier
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of scientific discovery and growth. To that end, my administration has taken a number of actions to win
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that race. So we have to remember, we're talking about usages here. We're talking about building
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out something that requires material to build in the first place. And we talked about it before.
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We're talking about AI and ChatGPT and the data centers that are required to engine and power
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the processing of this intelligence. Every single data center that is open, you need tens of thousands
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of kilos of silver. Can you believe that? It's the demand coming out from AI. Now, we're not even
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talking about the other usages. We're talking about- Like the factories. The factories, semiconductors,
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power distribution, automotive, photography, all of these things. If you have a light switch
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in your house, there's silver in that light switch. But we're talking about scaling out something
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that is going to be a massive push to build out. A lot of economic analysts are wondering,
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how are they going to build this out economically? How are you going to finance this? Well, my question
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is, where are you going to get the silver from to scale out this AI project?
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That's one of the reasons why they probably titled it a critical mineral, right? You can start to see
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this trend. The signposts there were, we're going to get to this stage and we have to put things in
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place. We're going to need silver. It is critical to this. Rare Earths. You can see the deals that
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have been made around the world to go after Rare Earths. I think it's an important mission. I think
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it's a noble one. I think it will bring a lot of jobs. I do hope that Canada gets in on the race and
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in on the success of it. I think we have a lot to offer to the United States in that mission. But of
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course, it is going to need a lot of precious metals. And it's not just in the United States,
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but it is a race around the world for it. So we know that the demand on silver right now,
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I was watching a video with Keith Neumeier from First Majestic, and he ran the numbers. He's really
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good at all of those things. He said, they're mining $800 million a year. They're using about
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$1.1, $1.2 billion a year. That deficit's been running for about five years. So they're a billion
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ounces short already. And he was mentioning that, yeah, you can create a bigger mill. You can build a
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bigger mill. You can do more refining, but that's going to take money. And you need higher prices to
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do that. One thing I was struck this week regarding was in Canada, I was kind of shocked
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to hear this. We don't really refine anything here. No. We mine it and we ship it. Just like
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oil. Lumber. Lumber. And I thought, wow, how come we're not part of that process? You know,
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we follow Vince Lancey, a great analyst in the market, always talking about mercantilism and how
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these countries around the world are saying, look, we want part of the value chain. We don't want to
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just dig it and ship it, which is a very kind of British Empire colonial thing. We want to build
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it, produce something, and then ship it. Jobs. And be part of it, right? Create more jobs,
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et cetera. So I was kind of shocked that we don't even, you know, we're the third largest,
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fifth or fifth largest gold, seventh largest silver.
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We don't really refine it, except for the Royal Canadian Mint, I guess. Maybe some small
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mints, but we're small refiners. We're not refining. That's a lot of jobs that are missing.
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And a lot of demand that we could be fulfilling by doing that. I digress.
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We're going to need a lot of silver. There's a deficit. We have the cup and handle from a
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technical standpoint. What kind of prices are people considering for where silver could be going
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in this type of AI mission and new version of a space race?
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Well, now that we're seeing, you know, the trend moving from China stopping the exports of silver,
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hoarding gold, to the designation of silver being on the critical minerals list, to the move of this,
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this launch of the project, this mission, we're supported. So I think on the downside,
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we're very supported. You cannot sell a critical mineral. It's a mandate. It's a law now you have
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to acquire and stockpile as much silver as possible. So we're supported in that regard.
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But when we look at other analysts, if you look at the silver to the M2 supply, for example,
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we're talking about multiple times higher. I think we were very supported. Next week,
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the US will be cutting interest rates. That's another tailwind for silver. It should push the
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prices of gold and silver higher because they're going to be destroying and devaluing the currency
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even more. We also look at Michael Oliver's, the momentum structural analysts, where he includes
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looking at the technicals regarding momentum. Now, his stuff has been focused on and highlighted
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through the Wall Street Journal. And he says it's not a slow climb. He actually believes a quantum leap
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is coming in silver. It's a permanent shift to new price ranges. He's calling for 100 to 200 silver
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within quarters. We're not talking about years. And gold is entering entirely into a new valuation
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paradigm. Because remember, the gold is we're talking about revaluation here. The US needs to
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take their asset, which is a tier one capital. It's actually high quality liquid asset to China. So
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it's actually better than cash. Gold is that collateral. We're going to be watching this market.
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There's a lot of news about the repo markets in the overnight. It's blowing up, Jeremy. This is the
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stuff that took down the Lehman Brothers. It took down just before COVID when the lockdowns happened.
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There was a lot of price action in the repo market. It's showing signs of illiquidity.
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Liquidity is based on the collateral. What is the good collateral? What is the asset
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on that asset side of your balance sheet versus the mountains of debt? The US has just passed,
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what, $300-some-odd trillion in debt? Or what's it? $37 trillion, I think.
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You know, when you think about the debts that are out there, you know, I think back to when I
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started in 2006. And you're telling people, look, it's undervalued. Silver's undervalued. Gold's
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undervalued. I don't, I don't, I'm starting to fully appreciate just how undervalued they really
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were back then. And also how much more money people had, right, in the markets. I think that
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silver today at $50 is even more undervalued when you think about the amount of money that's been
00:19:00.180
printed out of thin air or currency and debt that's been created out of thin air. And so that's going to
00:19:06.760
have to be dealt with, whether it's defaulting or the rise of gold. You know, it's sometimes,
00:19:12.920
you know, the way I kind of think about it sometimes is they're not, you don't necessarily
00:19:16.560
have to pay down the whole debt. No. You know, if you have a $800,000, $900,000 mortgage on a
00:19:21.720
million dollar property, it's, you got sleepless nights. But if the property goes to one and a half
00:19:26.540
million, it's the equity. The debt is not as much of a concern. In fact, you can now borrow against it,
00:19:33.400
right? Exactly. And I think that that's what they're looking at and central bank
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are looking at when it comes to physical gold. I think silver, you know, we're talking about more
00:19:42.160
from an industrial standpoint. So I think when you start to think about how much debt there is,
00:19:47.580
what it's going to take to level the playing field, because you could have, you're going to
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need 25 years of 4% GDP to be able to get to where you're trying to go here. So you need the assets to
00:20:00.040
grow quickly. And I think that's what central banks are buying gold for. And then the benefit you get
00:20:06.080
from it because it's a high-quality liquid asset is to be able to borrow against it as it's rising
00:20:12.240
and use it as collateral, right? Not the pension plan, but the gold.
00:20:17.820
Yeah. This is just it. You know, the Canadian government just went parabolic with their mission
00:20:23.380
to steal from us. Even further, Carney announcing that they're going to use pensions. So, you know,
00:20:29.080
with money being just Canadian money, just being just digital ones and zeros on your computer when you
00:20:34.700
log in, the time right now is to convert out of this currency of the loonie that has lost over 95%
00:20:41.460
of its purchasing power since 1915. The trajectory is very bad right now in Canada, but there is hope.
00:20:47.980
And I believe that with the resources that we have in Canada, when we unlock, things will change
00:20:52.640
rapidly. However, we have to go through some steps. Gold and silver are being reintroduced into
00:20:59.340
the monetary system. And I think with the US, if they have to boost that side of the balance sheet
00:21:07.100
back to maybe where it was prior to World War II or around World War II time, the gold represented 20%
00:21:18.000
of the debt back then. And right now, the gold that they have in holdings represents 2% of the
00:21:23.820
$38 trillion in debt. So how do we get back to the 20%? We're talking about gold revaluation.
00:21:29.400
And scoff at the idea because, you know, to get back to 20%, gold will be around $25,000 roughly.
00:21:37.280
You can't scoff at the idea because I challenge you. I just want to encourage you guys to check
00:21:40.860
out the federalreserve.gov website. Their latest paper is about gold revaluations. They don't talk
00:21:46.560
about gold, but this is the first time ever. The Federal Reserve, the Central Bank of the United
00:21:50.520
States mentions gold, but revaluing gold and how countries use their gold to fix all the fiscal
00:21:57.500
mess that they were in. And no, they didn't have to sell the gold to dump and to raise cash. No,
00:22:04.200
they just simply revalued the price. And it is very interesting. It's very exciting to know this
00:22:09.840
because our clients are going to benefit. Our clients right now are benefiting.
00:22:12.560
Yeah. I think, you know, when we're talking about forecasts, which is where we've taken the whole
00:22:17.780
show to get to this point, which is great. When you're thinking about forecasts, you know, let's
00:22:21.660
say Jim Rickards, he's a great author. He he's done the math on these things as you've talked about
00:22:26.560
just, just a moment ago in terms of percentages. Right. And he'll, he'll throw out a forecast saying,
00:22:33.400
look, like you're going to need $25,000 gold plus to be in a place where you're, you're leveling the
00:22:40.760
balance sheet or balancing the, the, the debts, et cetera. But it's a lot to digest. It's really
00:22:47.300
difficult for someone to conceive of those type of prices. Similarly, when I got into the business
00:22:52.960
and so gold was trading at 400 and I talked to people saying, yeah, you know, they think it's
00:22:58.300
going to go to a thousand, you'd get the hand. It's not going to happen. Right.
00:23:03.180
On the opposite end of the spectrum, you have, um, banks that are forecasting just, just out
00:23:11.680
in front. Yeah. Right. Gold's going to be, I mean, name the bank gold's going to be at
00:23:16.180
4,400 next year. It's 4,200, 41 something. Always conservative, right? Maybe it gets to 5,000,
00:23:22.520
right? Um, that type of thing. So very, very conservative. You don't get too excited. But when
00:23:27.460
you think, when you think about where we are right now at $50 silver, people are digesting
00:23:32.820
that price and they have to kind of let that sink in and say, yeah, it can go to 50. What's
00:23:39.440
because you have to start asking yourself, there's a couple of things that have to happen. One,
00:23:43.700
you have to get over the, the, the, um, double my money bias, right? People have a double. I doubled
00:23:50.980
my money. Take profit. I'll take the profit. I've doubled my money. That's enough. I'll take it
00:23:55.220
off the table. Um, just for its own sake. Listen, I love art for art's sake, but it's also better to
00:24:02.120
have things for a reason. And so when you start to look at reasons, you say, what's been resolved?
00:24:07.980
True. Have these debts been resolved? Has inflation been resolved? Has the dynamic of geopolitics been
00:24:15.060
resolved? Is the middle class being hollowed out still, or is the middle class growing? That would
00:24:19.800
be a resolve for me, right? Seeing, seeing these things, um, you know, are regular everyday people
00:24:26.820
working minimum wage, but able to do something with that minimum wage, right? Where it's not,
00:24:31.700
they're sitting there saying this job isn't paying me enough to care, right? There's a lot of things,
00:24:37.920
right? Anecdotally and statistically to say it's been resolved. So that's the first thing,
00:24:44.440
get over the double bias. And then the second thing is, is what has been resolved? And I think
00:24:49.660
when it's going to be a process, revaluing gold is a process, um, that you're just going to see the
00:24:57.920
prices move higher and higher and just keep asking, has it, what's been resolved? And that's what we're
00:25:03.420
here for to discuss the fundamentals. And from the silver perspective, it's really about the industrial
00:25:08.480
demand. So where's that headed? And what is there an ultimate, like give the audience a crazy price
00:25:15.400
and then we can talk about what the bank's conservative price is. And then it's maybe
00:25:20.500
somewhere in between. You know what, with, uh, with the silver forecasts, um, having silver being
00:25:26.340
designated as a critical mineral, that's huge. We really have to really build that as the foundation
00:25:32.180
here because you're not selling physical. If you do see the prices jump around, it's because of the
00:25:36.980
paper markets and the paper markets are right now about to erupt. Um, the paper markets are
00:25:42.300
frothing. They want to, they want another round of money printing, which means nothing has been
00:25:46.100
solved. And the solution before was just print a ton of money, but this time around is not going to
00:25:52.060
work. This is why the gold and silver are the focus for being collateral. Yeah. Silver is industrial,
00:25:56.940
but it's also being used as collateral in places like India. They've reintroduced it to the monetary
00:26:02.120
system. And as we look at cycles, you brought up Jim Rickards. Um, we are actually in the third
00:26:07.380
cycle of the super cycle. We're actually in third super cycle of precious metals, which is very
00:26:12.420
exciting. It's pointing to by next year. Um, according to Jim Rickards, silver should be anywhere
00:26:17.260
around, um, a 490 us per ounce. And what's very interesting here by next year. Um, what's very
00:26:23.380
interesting. That's pretty, uh, out there. Yeah. Well, we have, uh, some cryptos into the 80,000 mark
00:26:29.220
and they really don't do much. What does Michael Oliver say? So, so Rickards is saying multiple
00:26:34.060
hundreds. Oliver saying $200 within a few quarters. So if we continue with that momentum and clearing
00:26:42.720
hurdles of, you know, the support and resistance levels, it becomes very easy to do. Couple that
00:26:49.920
in with the silver stock out. We had Daniel Galley from TD Securities, the head of commodities
00:26:54.780
strategists there. Um, he indicated that this is the one way to buy into the silver, silver space.
00:27:00.100
You want to own that and you want to own that, but you don't want to own the proxy. You don't
00:27:03.380
want to own the certificate or some type of gold or silver scheme. You want to buy the physical
00:27:07.960
precious metals, whether to take home through Guildhall, own it in your RSPs, go to the vault
00:27:13.420
and visit. If you don't believe that they're there, go check them out and audit it yourself.
00:27:17.000
But you want to buy into this because this is a once in a lifetime opportunity. And people are
00:27:21.400
worried about, well, if we're moving up, could it just pull back? Gold and silver, especially
00:27:26.940
gold has to be revalued and held there. And it's not a very new topic for many people to
00:27:32.620
understand. A lot of Canadians today, if you go to betterdwelling.com, great website. Just
00:27:37.380
look at the top five headlines right now. Canadians have to renew. Um, HELOCs are at an all time
00:27:44.620
high. The debt is surging and the home is the collateral. And when people renew, they may
00:27:50.280
have to fork out some more money because that collateral, that down payment is too small.
00:27:54.540
It's too little. So you're going to have to fork up some more cash. But in this case with
00:27:58.160
the U.S., you can't just print more cash to add as an asset on the balance sheet. The
00:28:02.640
cash was the problem in the first place. So we're talking about gold. Gold is there.
00:28:07.280
They have the Gold Standard Restoration Act prepped and ready to go. The U.S. will be introducing
00:28:12.600
this and they have to stabilize that treasury number.
00:28:15.720
Or a version of it. So Jerry, as we, as we wind down here, did we get to some of your
00:28:24.620
Um, well, I mean, we've covered a lot of ground this week and, uh, we'll continue to
00:28:29.080
bring more to the table. There's always lots of new things happening in the market and
00:28:33.440
we like catching all of these wins. A lot of these symptoms and symbols of, or signals
00:28:39.840
rather of the gold revaluation and that the demand for silver and where we see the prices
00:28:46.260
headed that are supporting all of these arguments that you're hearing. So if you like what you're
00:28:50.260
hearing, you can get ahold of us and we can walk you through the markets. We love holding
00:28:54.880
people's hands and teaching them how to get involved in registered accounts, how it works.
00:29:00.240
We help clients open their accounts. We help them with their funding, with their transfers.
00:29:04.320
We're helping them track the whole process. And then their tailor, uh, tailored purchases
00:29:09.600
where we're helping clients figure out what's going to work best for them for today and into
00:29:14.580
the future. So we love helping and having those types of conversations with our clients. And of
00:29:19.340
course it doesn't end there. There's always conversations along the way. Clients will bat
00:29:23.440
ideas. They might, um, see an article and want to discuss it. So we're all, our doors are always
00:29:28.660
open. Our phones are always on, um, ready to take your calls. And, uh, that's it for another
00:29:33.840
episode of the real money show. We want to thank you for joining and we can't wait to speak to you