SPONSOR ｜ What the silver selloff really means
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Summary
Jeremy Wiseman and Jerry Kariah discuss the direction of the market and the implications of the pullback in the silver and gold markets. Gold and silver have taken the headlines and are leading the headlines, but is there any truth behind it?
Transcript
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Okay, welcome to The Real Money Show. My name is Jeremy Wiseman. I'm joined by Jerry Kariah,
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and we're recording today on February 5th. Before we get out the gate here, Jerry, I'd just like to
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mention your side of the table is very messy. Can't help it, Jeremy. I'm just full of information.
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So there's a lot happening in the market. We've seen a big run-up in silver over the last couple
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weeks and also a big pullback in the market over the last couple weeks. I think the word of the day
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should be dislocation. There's clearly a difference between what's happening in the paper markets and
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what's happening in the actual physical market. Before we get into those discrepancies and what
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we're experiencing and how we feel this is going to play out, I just want to talk a little bit about
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some of the psychology that we've been witnessing in the market for the last week and a half,
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which is we noticed that once silver broke over $100, we saw more buying coming into the market.
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People were very excited about the gains that were occurring. Last Friday, again, we're recording
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today on Thursday, February 5th. Last Friday, the market started to come down. There were some
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people who were some buyers that were or some holders of metals that were eager to sell into that
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falling market. And I'm happy we were able to accommodate them. And it was great to get some
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physical products back into the inventories. And then this week, we've seen the price of silver move
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into the $85 and $75 range, basically bringing us back to where we were in the beginning of January.
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And you're starting to see massive buying again. People very excited to buy the dip. And I just think
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that this has always been the case that when there's action in the market, people get excited by the
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action and it propels them to do something. And I think ultimately, as our listeners and viewers are
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checking out this show today, I hope that they get a sense of excitement and positivity. Because in my
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mind, I think it's great. Whether you're buying it at $100 plus, whether you're buying it at $80 an
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ounce in silver, I think you're going to be happy that you have the physical product. What's your take
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Very relevant today. Gold and silver have taken the headlines. It's leading the headlines as far as
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asset allocation models are concerned and the demand for precious metals has increased with new
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fundamentals. It's a paradigm shift away from the old, hedging from risks to now growing, growing the
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industries, growing your portfolio with real assets, with real stuff that not just protect against inflation
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and the loss of your currency's purchasing power, which is the reason why. But you have a lot of buyers
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coming in excited. Congratulations for securing your product, even at $120,000 where we peaked last
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week, a slight pullback. Again, we talk at length on The Real Money Show about the cycles. We have to
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use these cycles. And it's important to know that we are currently still in the third cycle. The cycle
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has not been broken whatsoever. So having a pullback, it's reminiscent from the 70s and 2000s where we had
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30, 50% pullbacks. Rick Rule reminded us that there were three 50% pullbacks during the 70s where gold
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ended up in the average price performance in both cycles. We ended up at over 1,400%. So where we're
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headed, the forecasts are much higher. Nobody's selling the physical. All of this is paper carnage.
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And we have to be reminded that this is the end of financialization or the limiting of
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financialization and the elimination of a lot of leverage. Leverage is being unwound. We're seeing that
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happen. A lot of financial companies during the pullback last Friday where we had that 30%, 40% drop in
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silver. It wasn't physical, but it was all the paper smashed that was in gold and silver futures
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that were sold because gold and silver are liquid. Even the paper stuff is liquid to raise cash to
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pay for the margin, pay for margin calls. But two banks in the States succumbed. There was the Metro
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Cap Bank and Trust. There was another bank called First Independence Bank. And there was also the Chinese
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ETF. Right. There was an exchange and apparently they had a vehicle that you could only go forward,
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future forward on, and it was all derivative on derivative. And there was no way to balance out
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your portfolio. You couldn't short it. So they got completely busted out from it. Actually, I also heard
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that on the Shanghai exchange that the regulators on the exchange caught some of the entities
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participating in this and stopped it. They said, no, we're not going to let you concentrate and short
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this market to this extent. So their regulators stepped in. We don't know where the regulators
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are for the comics, but the deliveries have been immense. The amount of paper that's being sold is
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immense. And ultimately, this is all about paper, not about your physical metal. So let's jump into
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what we're seeing on the physical side of things, which can inform what's happening on the paper side.
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Yeah. There's a lot of news this week that came down the pike that involved critical minerals.
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That was a major headline to close out the year, which helped propel gold higher 60% to the end of the
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year of 2025. And it was 160% up last year for silver. Silver being included in the Department of the
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Interior's critical minerals list. The last two minerals that were added to the list were uranium
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and lithium, and those minerals multiplied. So we anticipate the demand. This means the US can't sell.
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Now they're building this out now. So two things happened this week. The first was the announcement
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of Project Vault. Now Project Vault. This is a massive addition for the United States. A lot of news this
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week came out and it had to do with the critical minerals list. Last year, when we closed out the
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year, silver was included in the critical minerals list. This list is published by the Department of the
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Interior, and it highlights the minerals that are crucial for national security in the States. And
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silver was added. The last two minerals that were added were lithium and uranium, which multiplied in
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prices afterwards. So this tells us where we're headed. But they're securing it, and now they're
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building this out. So this week, the United States just launched, the Trump administration launched
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Project Vault. This initiative announced just a couple days ago, it's a $12 billion strategic stockpile
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for critical minerals right here in the US, right here in North America, including silver and other
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minerals, other metals as well. And it's aimed at securing the supply chains for the US manufacturing,
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their build out of industries, and reducing their reliance on imports.
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I think it's more than that. Let's roll the clip of Scott Besson discussing it at the launch of the
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And a country does not have sovereignty. If we don't have control of our critical minerals,
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don't have control of our steel production, and our industrial base, and thanks to the work of
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everyone here through your leadership, this was a public-private partnership that only you could
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have assembled. And we are taking back our sovereignty, and we are going to have this vault project,
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a strategic mineral reserve. And I can't tell you how innovative and exciting this is,
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and the level of security it is going to give us going forward is phenomenal.
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So right there, Scott Besson mentions sovereignty. And I think it's important at this point to point
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out that the idea is you have to have physical commodities running your economy. And the next
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day, Scott Besson, not Scott Besson, excuse me, no, J.D. Vance had a speech. And in the speech,
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he was talking about the vault and the critical mineral stockpile. And he said,
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assets and commodity prices are persistently depressed, driven downward by forces beyond
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any individual country's control. So at the conference for critical minerals,
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they were discussing basically the idea of coming together to make sure that there's a floor
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under the critical mineral prices. So when we put it together, you have that they want this stockpile
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that has nothing to do with the military, that it's just about industry, that they have this
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stockpile that they admit, as Scott Besson said, or sorry, as J.D. Vance said, that has been
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controlled and manipulated. The prices have been controlled and manipulated. And that they want
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to work to make sure that there's a floor under the pricing. So for me, as someone who's been in
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the markets and watched the manipulation of the paper, and we're watching it right now, which
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let's call a spade a spade here, that looks like massive panic. Because what the administration
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is signaling here is that physical rules and industry. And when the paper markets are controlling
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and manipulating prices downward, it's not contributing to the health of the economy.
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And you can see that in the sense of the difference between Wall Street and Main Street. And as we've
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discussed for years, this idea of distortions in markets, and it just creates a lot of distortions.
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And so they're saying, look, we're not going to let you manipulate things anymore.
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They're calling out the financiers. And this seems to me that it's, okay, guys, we got to
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get out of this because they're going to come in and put floors under this. They're raising
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the white flag. So what a tremendous opportunity in the market when the paper slams are happening.
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And the last time this happened, back in 2020, we saw the price of silver go from about $21
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an ounce, I believe, or $22, maybe slightly higher, down to $11 on paper.
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But you couldn't actually buy physical metal for that price.
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And that was in March of 2020. And by August, we were trading at $31 an ounce.
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So imagine what this could be like when the moves are much, we're at higher prices and
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Exactly. And we actually did see this type of closure. The Perth Mint decided to shut
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down on Friday. They shut down their sales. They're like, you know, we have the product,
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but at these paper prices, we're not going to honor these prices. We're going to hold on
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Well, that's assuming that they have it. We don't even know if they have it. So what we're
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seeing around the world is we've seen Perth Mint shut down, Australian bullion dealers shut
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down. We saw premiums in Dubai go through the roof. We've seen a big bullion dealer in
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Switzerland completely out of stock. The market's basically going unobtainium here. So it's either
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the premiums are going through the roof as the prices or paper prices are coming down
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or there's no product available. So why is it, okay, for anyone who's still worried about
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it, why is it that the price is coming down, but there's no product available?
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That people are demanding it and buying it and excited to buy on the dips here, but somehow
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the price is coming down. We call that dislocation.
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Yeah. This is dislocation. This is not weakness in the physical market. This is textbook bull
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market behavior. You have these pullbacks, as I mentioned earlier. In real bull runs, these
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pullbacks are normal before the next leg higher. And that's what's being forecasted. We have
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another... We have a report from Vince Lancey earlier today from Gold Fix. You guys got to
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follow. But there was some news from Sockgen earlier. This is paper getting smashed. The physical
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stays tight. The premiums stay high. The prices start to diverge overseas. The prices are $10,
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$20 higher overseas. Places that actually have the bullion, that actually mine the stuff,
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that actually have exchanges backed with physical. The days of London's, you know, London's and the
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LBMA's longstanding paper control of our spot prices, where we get that paper smash. Coming from London,
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you know, having the US refer to the term sovereignty away from London's longstanding
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control mechanism, this paper price coming from London, things are shifting rapidly. And this vault
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now in the US, it's being built, not on the backs of taxpayers. And it's going to be built. And I
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think the timing of it all, I talked previously in further and earlier episodes of the Golden
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Corridor, which is the bricks founding of this sort of an equator, right across Africa, all the way to
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the Far East. It's gold vaults situated, connected with technology on the blockchain. You pledge your
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goal and you can bank. And I think the timing of it all, the US is now set up to connect potentially.
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And I think this is going to be the new golden age that the Trump administration talks about.
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You know, that brings another point, which is the idea of irrelevancy. It appears as though the idea
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of a lot of these moves that they're making is to make the current construct of the financial world
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irrelevant. You know, you think about the Federal Reserve, and their candidate for running the
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reserve as chairman with Warsh. The idea is, yeah, moving, moving as well, more stuff to the Treasury.
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It's all about making things irrelevant. And, you know, certainly with a lot of the Epstein stuff
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that's coming to light, you're kind of letting everyone work their way through it and find out
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what's real, what's not. But you start to see that a lot of these people are going to become
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irrelevant, right? And that's worse than jail time. That's worse than jail time. So what's happening
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right now, I think the shot across the bow really with this stockpile, with what you're discussing,
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it's sort of coalescing here. And it's really a massive shot across the bow to those who want
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to try to manipulate markets by using paper. When again, JD Vance has made it very clear,
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he gets it, he understands it, the world needs actual goods, actual commodities to build things.
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And when you think about the amount of industry that is occurring, the investment is there,
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the factories are being built, they want to build things, and they want to produce, and that means
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jobs, that means a greater economy. And I think, actually, what's probably going to happen is
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the economic news will be too big to rig. They'll be having a tough time trying to
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convince people that it's bad news. And let's talk about that a little bit.
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Narratives. There's a lot of narratives that get thrown out during these kind of big moves that
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are happening in the markets. One was, well, they want Warsh to be the chairman. That's the reason
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the silver market falling? Get out of here. That is not the reason the price of silver is coming down
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at all. And then you hear these AI-generated channels on YouTube giving absolute, complete
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misinformation. You have everyone going through, going, can't find it. Can't find details on any
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of the things that these people are saying. You really want to stay with people who are real,
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who can corroborate the information. We don't always get it right. Not everyone always gets it right,
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but at least the intention isn't to put out misinformation and you don't know who to trust.
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You know, it's kind of, similarly, you're finding more and more about, potentially about
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cryptocurrencies, again, through the Epstein stuff. We'll see how it pans out, see how it works out,
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but that they've had their hands all over it, controlling it, whether the intention,
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what the intention was originally. Who knows? But, you know, that market's coming down. Is that part of
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what's happening in the precious metals market? Maybe, maybe, you know, they're pulling their
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money out of this to cover margin calls on that. It's always a possibility. It's never just one
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thing. Right. But ultimately, again, if there's no product available, and we've been pretty lucky,
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but listen, kilobars. We spoke to one of our dealers, and they said, in silver, and they said,
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no kilobars till March. That's it. So what are we supposed to do for the next month, month and a half?
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Right. You're just going to see more of these dealers not having any product.
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Yep. Go with 100-ounce bars. Go with silver maples, just as liquid as the smaller stuff.
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And with Guildhall, we deliver that to you. You can come pick it up at the office.
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Put that in your RSPs. Put that in your TFSA. Get it while you can, because the rush for collateral
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is on. And with, you know, Bitcoin tanking below $70,000 now, ETFs, things are being sold off.
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Margin calls are going to, you know, rattle the markets. This is collateral stress.
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It's increasing globally. It's beyond the repo markets. It's beyond the Japanese carry trade.
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This is beyond unwind. The move towards real stuff is collateral. And that's the theme. That's
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the key word going forward for the next year, year and a half.
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Because, yeah. Because the U.S. Treasury has to restabilize that U.S. dollar and moves like
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getting the vault set up. We're all leading back towards backing the U.S. Treasury. And it's all
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about securing that dollar. Yes, Warsh is a dollar hawk, but it doesn't mean you have to manipulate
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rates. You can regain credibility of the U.S. dollar. How? What was the best way of regaining
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credibility? What was the best collateral ever in the U.S.'s history? Oh, yeah. It was gold. And
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going back to the gold standard, there are two acts currently sitting at Congress right
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now. First is, you know, going back to a time where there was no Federal Reserve. HR 25 is
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the first one to repeal the income tax. And then there is HR 9145, which is the Gold Standard
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Restoration Act. These are the solutions. This is a solution to temper all of the worry, temper
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all of the collateral stress. This is a solution. You want to have that solution as well for
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your portfolio. But filter through the news. Follow the trends. Don't get dissuaded with
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this $3,000 cash and dealers have to report. That's false and debunked. Many dealers across
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the North America, including us, are debunking it here. Once again, the AI Asian guy is spreading
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false information. So you want to stay tuned. Now, the question is why?
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And a lot of you viewers on Rebel News understand that the trucker convoys, there was freezing
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of bank accounts. And when they froze bank accounts, people wanted to get their money out
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left, right, and center. They were lined up at the office pulling out cash. It revealed
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the type of banking system that we have in North America, probably globally. It's fractional
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reserve banking. When you deposit $100 in that bank account, they take 99% of it, maybe higher
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of your money. And they over and over again, lend it out, lease it out. They use your collateral,
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your deposit over and over again. But when you want to take your money out, they're going
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There was a lot of capital outflow from the banks.
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What would be the MO? What would be his motive as to why? He's not talking to Samsung. Samsung's
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already buying two years out of silver. They need the silver regardless if it tanks or goes
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up. They're not talking to the industries because they're securing vaults. They're securing
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the project vault. They're securing their critical minerals. Silver's on that list. So they're
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not really talking to the industries or countries. He's not really addressing them. He's addressing
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you and I, people who bank at the banks, right?
00:21:03.780
Well, I just think that the only people that I've heard about this guy in particular,
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the only people who are really panicked are people who are watching him because of the
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misinformation. I don't get people who are following Rick Rule, as you mentioned, or Vince
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Lancey or Michael Oliver or anyone, Peter Schiff, whatever. No one's calling us saying,
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he said this, I'm freaking out. It's people who are following. They don't know who they're
00:21:28.340
following. It's some AI guy, right? That they're following. Look, at the end of the day, this
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is what's happening. The exchanges don't have any physical product. They're trying to get
00:21:38.420
out of their paper short positions. JP Morgan already got out of their positions. These are
00:21:43.340
the rest that are trying to get out of their positions. The rest is all machinations of a
00:21:47.640
bull market, but here's what we know. There's eight to 14 week delivery delays for physical
00:21:53.440
product in London. There's more and more physical deliveries coming out of the exchanges or calling
00:21:59.640
for delivery and they don't have the product. So they're going to try to get people out of that
00:22:03.660
as much as possible. Physical demand is through the roof. You've got bullion dealers either just
00:22:08.000
shuttering their doors or just hiking premiums to crazy levels. People ask, how's your inventory?
00:22:15.160
It's hit or miss. It's hit or miss right now with registered accounts. Luckily, we've done a
00:22:20.660
great job of managing our inventory for product at the vault. So people who want to own physical
00:22:27.100
gold and silver in a registered account, we're doing pretty well on the inventory because we've
00:22:32.040
prepared for this exact event. Smaller products, it's difficult. My understanding is that Royal
00:22:38.520
Canadian Mint is moving from 100 ounce bars to 10 ounce bars in most of their production and
00:22:44.040
refinery. But dislocations, collateral, as you mentioned, the physical market is going to rule
00:22:53.400
the day. And we've seen these events before. You should be excited about them. We have a lot of
00:22:59.040
people who have been very excited about them. And we feel going forward, what this means is much,
00:23:06.320
much higher prices. And you have an administration that's saying, we're not going to allow manipulation.
00:23:11.120
We're going to set a floor for these things. So you guys can't do what you're doing because clearly
00:23:15.940
the regulators aren't doing anything about it. Right. Final thoughts here, Jay.
00:23:20.740
How can you allow paper, you smash paper, silver and gold contracts to pay your margin calls? That's
00:23:27.140
like, that's fake money that you're throwing to pay off a real world debt.
00:23:31.620
Well, meanwhile, central banks are using fiat currency, printing fiat currency to buy gold,
00:23:36.380
left, right and center. Right. No. But where do they get the money for it?
00:23:40.580
Yeah. The shenanigans will end. And, you know, it, this is why gold and silver are,
00:23:45.520
you know, disliked by dishonest men. We're going back to a world where we're building trust once
00:23:51.480
again, through mercantilism on, with, on technology that is transparent and we're leveling the playing
00:23:58.060
fields. It's phenomenal to see. We're very excited about the future. And you know, who's excited about
00:24:03.240
the future of this bank, JP Morgan, soft gen society general, they just noted a massive in a note to
00:24:09.740
their clients. This came out today. They noted a massive interest that just showed up on the desks
00:24:17.300
up at deferred high strike calls, an option that shows a $2,000 gold price within a year,
00:24:26.620
a one year, uh, deferred high strike call. So the last time this is coming from gold fix, the last
00:24:34.280
time a, uh, an option with expiry out of one year was launched in gold was July of 2025 last year,
00:24:43.800
summer, just one month before the August breakout of last year. So be very excited when these precursors
00:24:51.460
are, are found. And you, we have the information. We subscribe to gold fix to give you this information.
00:24:57.280
We want to share this information with you. The market is very supported. So be encouraged. Even
00:25:02.620
if you bought a little higher, we have to know, and we ground ourselves with our why, why are we
00:25:08.860
converting out of fiat currencies? Because as Voltaire said, all fiat currencies go back to their intrinsic
00:25:15.620
value of zero. And you don't want, you do not want to be a, have an asset that is denominated in a
00:25:23.000
currency that is going down the Canadian dollar. If we go back to the way that they measured the CP lie
00:25:28.740
back in seventies to 1980, the average rate of inflation was 8% as high as 12. If we go back to
00:25:35.160
the way that they calculated inflation, we're around 13% today. So understand that your currency is dying
00:25:40.820
13% year over year. The best way to get out of that is by converting out and into ounces.
00:25:47.720
And look, the, the banks for, for all this chicanery are still very positive on the metals.
00:25:53.120
You've got JP Morgan is calling for higher prices. What did they see here? JP Morgan's calling between
00:26:00.180
6,300 and 6,900 this year. UBS 6,200. Sogen, which would just had the, that you were just talking
00:26:07.900
about 6,000. And look, these banks are always going to be conservative in their numbers. Now,
00:26:12.640
if you have the market going to over $6,000 an ounce on gold, and you're looking somewhere between a 40,
00:26:19.560
35 to one ratio, silver to gold to silver ratio, that puts silver back into the 160 range or higher.
00:26:26.100
So Michael Oliver might be bang on with some exciting fireworks for the rest of the year. So
00:26:31.340
it's only been a month. It's been, it's been crazy. Stick with us. We will, we threw all the crazy in
00:26:41.360
the market, but ultimately our goal is to help you to own physical gold and silver. We're, we're not
00:26:47.840
advisors. We just, we're telling you what we're doing with our portfolios and we're telling you
00:26:52.360
what's happening in the gold and silver market. However, if you want to own physical gold and
00:26:56.580
silver in a registered account, feel free to touch base with us at guildhallwealth.com. We'll show
00:27:01.900
you how to do it. And it's always going to be fully allocated, segregated. It's always your product and
00:27:06.500
you can go and touch it. Cause remember, if you can't hold it, you don't own it. Thank you so much
00:27:10.960
for joining us this week on The Real Money Show. Can't wait to speak to you soon.