Why Silver’s Next Move Could Redefine Money, Markets, and National Security | SPONSOR
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Summary
In the first episode of 2020, Jeremy Wiseman and Jerry Karayla discuss why you may not want to sell silver and gold just yet. They discuss the reasons why it may not be a bad idea to hold on to those precious metals.
Transcript
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Welcome to The Real Money Show, the 2026 first edition of the show. My name is Jeremy Wiseman.
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I am joined by Jerry Karaya. How are you doing, Jerry?
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Very good, Jeremy. How are you? Happy New Year, everyone.
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I'm doing great. Last year, let's just jump right into it, okay? Last year,
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silver was up over 160%. Gold was up 66%. You may not want to sell just yet. You may
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want to keep holding on to those metals. We'll tell you why. Basically, right now, Jerry,
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we're seeing two things happening at once, a convergence of two major things in the market,
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specifically related to the silver market, which is, one is you have a new manufacturing superpower
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coming online in the United States, and they have signaled their intention. They are building
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factories, and you're going to need stuff. So you no longer have just Asia, specifically China,
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building everything and absorbing all that silver, but you now have another powerhouse doing that. So
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you have tremendous demand for this product, this commodity that is already in deficit. We have a
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five-year deficit in silver coming out of the ground versus the demand. Demand, obviously,
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is going to continue. On the other end, we'll get more into detail on that. On the other side,
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converging with that demand industrially is a de-financialization of the silver market and other
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markets in general, meaning the paper market can no longer control the physical market. As
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the whistleblower Andrew McGuire used to say, the tail can't wag the dog anymore because you have
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sovereign wealth funds and nations going in and saying, I'll take delivery. And so the paper
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trades who have had no product behind their paper have to scramble to somehow find it.
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Price versus value. So now this isn't just new in the silver market. This is happening
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on a much grander scale as well. We'll get into the yen carry trade as an example of this sort of
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unwinding of financialization that's affected these markets for decades. And in the silver market,
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we have had five decades of basically price suppression. Same thing with the price of gold.
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When you lift the gold standard, why are you doing that? Because in my opinion, it's because you want
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to rob people through inflation. So the first thing you got to do is you got to take away their gold.
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You got to tell them it's a relic. It doesn't pay a dividend. It's volatile. You're crazy. Are you
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a gold bug? You know, the worst case, like you can't when all this fails, can't eat it. Yeah. When
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all this fails, start insulting them. But once you've gotten, once nobody has it, then you get
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inflation going, you call it 2% when it's probably more like six and you're robbing people without them
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really knowing. So people don't know the value of the dollar. And after 50 years, they don't even know
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the value of silver. So here we are today, we're getting price discovery in the silver market. And
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we're going to go into details about all this, but you're getting price discovery in silver and people
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aren't sure what that actually looks like. We are definitely witnessing. This is the most
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exciting story. I think it is a new price discovery and the process involving this discovery. We're going
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to see some volatility, ups and downs. You're going to see a lot of that happening, especially when you
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do have that yen carry trade unwinding. But we're seeing a moving away, talking about the price
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discovery, it's moving away from London's old mirage. And they were the factory of financialization
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because they understood that gold and silver are money. You know, what is money? It's portable,
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divisible, durable, scarce and recognizable. Once you have the gold, you make the rules.
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And a store of value. All of that to encompass Aristotle's store of value money. And when London
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had it, they can create financials off of it. And when we create financials, you have about 100 to 1,
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100 paper contracts for every one ounce of gold that is in existence. And for silver, a whopping 400
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for every one ounce of physical gold available. Eventually, door comes knocking, people want to
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take delivery because people want to build stuff. They need that demand because these are converging
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assets. These are gold stepping into the industrial side of things. You have silver stepping back into
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the monetary re-monetization, not just in industries. And look how quickly we're just advancing into this
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AI and chat TBT. The advance for physical, it's very refreshing. We've moved away so quickly from
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this move away into not owning anything. Own the NFT. You don't want to own the real thing.
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Just own something that looks like it. No. Eventually, people look for the value. People
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need collateral. And that is the whole point of the yen carry trade unwind.
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Well, we'll get into the yen carry trade in just a moment. But let's start with some forecasts for this
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year. And then we can back it up with what's happening in the world to why we think those forecasts are
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pretty accurate. The first was probably a big surprise from Bank of America, Michael Winmer.
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He says that silver could peak between $135 to $309 per ounce. And what was really interesting about
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that is a couple of things. One, he's looking at the ratios, which is looking at value, not necessarily
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the price. He's saying, look, if silver reverts to the mean historically of $16 to $1, then at $16 to $1,
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you would see $300 an ounce silver. If it reverted to a little higher of a ratio, then you'd be looking
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at $135. But here's what's interesting. Not only that he used that, because that's not looking at
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charts. That's saying, how much should silver buy me? How many ounces of silver should it take to buy
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an ounce of gold? How many ounces of gold should it take to buy a house, right? That's not price
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related. That's ounces. So gold and silver become the measuring tool. But what I found interesting
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about this is he's only basing this off of gold going to $5,000. That's what I thought.
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Right? So I mean, you don't want to go too far ahead of yourself because you say, well, what if gold
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went to $8,000? What does that number look like there? Well, that's what we do. We try to stay as
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conservative as possible. If it breaks that, great. Yeah. A lot of this is, of course, digesting
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those prices. Because it's not about the price specifically. It's about what that metal should
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buy you, right? And then there's other things that come into play. So is the demand and supply
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resolved? Right now, we're sitting at $75,000 as we record the show today on Thursday the 8th.
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So retail has been decimated. There's no product out there.
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Shortages abound. Shortages abound. And the price is $75 an ounce. There's still a deficit from the
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mining side. So supply demand hasn't been resolved. And the expectation, as we said at the top of the
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show here, is that the US is going to be building a lot of factories and making a lot of stuff. So
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the demand is only set to go higher from here. So that has not been resolved. No. Inflation hasn't
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been resolved. And the supply and demand only set up the silver being included in the critical
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minerals list with the Department of the Interior in the US. Having that designation as a critical
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mineral means that it is not just a national security issue, but they have to hoard it and
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stockpile it regardless of price. And this is a necessity in order to scale out your military
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advancements if you're thinking of expanding military, which I think we're moving in the
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opposite direction. But AI, technology, we're seeing some leaps and bounds, moves in technology
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that I could, you know, thinking back, I would have never thought we would have had this chat,
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GPT. People are just talking to this machine. They're having a relationship. It's crazy. But
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this is the importance. And it's directly related to US security, industrial supply chains and
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Well, and to extrapolate on that, you now have the Department of Defense in conjunction with JP
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Morgan, who have sold all their paper, they are buying physical, they're no longer shorting the
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market. They're so far not shorting the market, Jerry, that they are involved in helping create
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a smelting facility in the United States to process silver that comes in. Less than 24 hours after the
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US military escalation in Venezuela, they secured a strategic silver smelter deal designed to process
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up to $1 trillion in Latin American metals, including Venezuelan supply. I've always thought,
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okay, there will be an argument for the reason why they went in was for oil. I thought the US is
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self-sufficient in oil with Louisiana and the whole basin in Houston. But the silver, knowing that a few
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days before the invasion or going into Venezuela, China strategically halted exports of their silver.
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And that was a straight US national security attack. And they needed to secure the silver. It was a
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tit for tat. As soon as they got into Venezuela, they inked this deal, financed jointly backed by
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captured JP Morgan, go get this deal done. And it's backed 40% backed by the Department of Defense,
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the Department of War. So silver, I think, right now is on the is on the lead, I think the charge for in my
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opinion, how important and how critical it is, not just to the US, but it's important for us, you want
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to get something that is going to be relevant, not just for yourself, but your portfolio, it's all about
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keeping yourself relevant. I mean, your job could be in a way eventually by AI, you may have to evolve
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and learn how to work with AI. But when you have the stuff that is required to make AI, like silver,
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tens of thousands of kilos, I don't know if you can imagine that, but that's filling a Amazon size
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warehouse full of mainframe computers and all that tech stuff filled with silver, you need to have the
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silver first to build out the AI. But you know, you're talking about AI, and then you're saying,
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well, there's the extraction side of it as well. And you know, one of the things that we've talked a lot
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about is mercantilism, and as opposed to financial, financialization of the world,
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which is more about extraction. And I think that's where as well, some narratives get lost.
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And there's a lot of people who will want to put narratives on top of what we're seeing here.
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But mercantilism is basically about saying, if you're Venezuela, for instance, that you should get
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to partake in the extractions of your commodities, and partake in the value chain of those
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commodities reaching other nations. You know, if you ever, I don't know if you ever read the book,
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Confessions of an Economic Hitman. But these are the things that they talked about in that book that
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he was confessing to that they would basically go in, you know, lumber these nations with debt,
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and then you would extract their resources, and they wouldn't get to have any of the money,
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right? And if all else fails, you know, you bring out the jackals, and you get rid of their
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leader, and you install someone else, right? This was like, what neocons would say, like,
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we're bringing democracy to the world. Yes, yeah, exactly. This is not that. This is what we're
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seeing around the world is the idea of mercantilism, which is we're going to, we're going to make the
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money off of it. Like in Canada, we don't have a smelting. We don't refine silver or gold, we just we
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take it out of the ground, and we ship it somewhere else. Well, shouldn't you control that? What about
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lumber? Shouldn't you be able to create things out of your lumber, not just ship the raw material,
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these sorts of things. And that's really what we believe is happening around the world is a return
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to mercantilism, which brings value and wealth back to people. So, you know, look, there are people as
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well, I just want to say one other thing on that. There are pundits out there talking about precious
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metals, and they'll say, well, it's because there's a collapse of the financial system. We're not exactly
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negative in that way. We're looking at a more at more positive changes in the world. And when you
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do think about growth in industrial for silver technology, etc, the demand on it, the repricing
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of it, right, revaluing it, these are very positive things to happen. And that's a really great reason
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to be owning something versus negative reasons. Yeah, there's gonna be a lash out because there's
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what's happening. It's a replacement of what didn't work. We are being this is a new system, which has
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been kind of catapulted to the world with the BRICS formation, the Brazil, Russia, India, China, South
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Africa, Union. Now you're, you're bringing in hundreds of other countries. And they've created this
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corridor across Africa, all the way to East Asia, that is built on not just technology, we're talking
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to blockchain, gold, fairness and mercantilism, countries that were once subservient to IMF loans
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in Africa. You would never be able to pay off these debts. Now, with this initiative, the BRICS
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corridor, you can now use the resources that you were blessed with, and put them into the vault, and
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get a loan off of your own resources, get a loan off of gold that is collateral. Why not silver as
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collateral? Like India is introduced. It's being reintroduced as the best collateral once again,
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because that's the big problem. We're seeing this happen with the yen carry trade right now.
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Collateral stress is increasing. And the US has to stabilize their treasury. Ultimately, we're seeing
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a de-dollarization because you don't trust paper. And the very collateral that backed the treasury
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was paper. And therefore, evolving away just fiat from fiat notes, backed solely by promises and fiat
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back towards tier one capital. What tier one capital is, zero risk, the best collateral. It used to be
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treasuries or gold. Well, the treasuries are bunk because the treasuries are being dumped around the
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world. So it's gold. The best collateral always remains gold, which points towards a revaluation as
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well. So once you back up the treasury, and this is the issue with the yen carry trade,
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collateral, what's backing all of this? Yeah. So I wanted to get into the yen carry trade. So
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we discussed this quickly before we jumped on air, talking about what the unwinding of the carry trade
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is really signaling to the market. So I want to kind of connect the dots between unwinding of the paper
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markets in the silver markets in the LBMA and the demand for the real metal, right? So now you have
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less financialization in the silver market, which means you get to find out what things are really
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worth. Right. And I think that that's sort of happening in the yen carry trade, right? So talk to
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us about how unwinding that is helping to definancialize the world in that respect as well.
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So the yen carry trade, so my background being in currencies, the biggest currency pair
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would be the dollar yen. The yen for decades have had their interest rates subpar, so into negative
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territory. And imagine that. You get paid to borrow their money. Imagine that. You could borrow the yen,
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whether it be the US, Britain, Korea, you could borrow and go invest it elsewhere. Imagine all of the
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bubbles that were created, real estate bubbles, stock bubbles. You could junk bonds. You could buy
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whatever you wanted to. It financed literally. If you could think of a bubble, that's what the yen
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carry trade allowed. Could you borrow the yen to just borrow it and end up using it to pay off people
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who wanted to buy their silver? You know what? It just opens the door to that. You're starting to get
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into areas of corruption, funding things that are nefarious. So we're really getting into the
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grounds of corruption. So this really cleans that up. You know, a good client of mine came in this week,
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Alex, and he's an accountant and financial planner, and he likened it to just restitution
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after World War II. Japan was forced to do this. Listen, you're going to be this Godzilla bank.
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But now, after a significant meeting with Donald Trump, Japan said, you know what? We're going to
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raise rates. Whoever borrowed, well, we're going to shore up that yen. The yen has to fly back into
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Japan. So what happened overnight? We're recording on Thursday. What happened overnight was the Japanese
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30-year bond skyrocketed to all-time highs. We had global margin calls. So the stock market ravaged.
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Gold and silver fell off as well. So you're going to see some volatility as this aligns. Because if you
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think about it, we're talking about derivatives. This is a derivative play. This financed all of
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the derivatives. And what Warren Buffett says, derivatives are the financial weapons of mass
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destruction. So this has to be cleaned up. But you're going to go through some pains. This is a
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replacement of the old and reinstituting a sound monetary policy. I think we're going to go through
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some black swan type of event. But it will reveal the solution. Where is a good collateral?
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We can't back up the debt with more debt. We can't back up the treasury with more paper.
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What's the best collateral? Do we have a solution? Do we have a bill in Congress? Yes. It's called the
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Gold Standard Restoration Act. It's sitting there. We get that back in. It's immediate. You revalue the
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price. And if you don't take it from me about gold revaluations, I want you to go to the Federal
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Reserve website. Go to federalreserve.gov. And you go to official reserve revaluations. And there you
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will see countries that in the past, about five countries in the past, didn't have to sell their
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gold resources. They revalued that price. The treasury has an account called the gold revaluation
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account. Same with Netherlands. And you could simply do that. We're talking about measuring up
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your assets to the $38.5 trillion in debt. And this kind of, you know, as you're saying this,
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you kind of start to see how it's coming together. You go, you've repressed the price of gold and silver.
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You've financialized everything so people don't really understand how big these bubbles are,
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how big these weapons of mass destruction are. But when you're trying to unwind it, one of the ways
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you unwind it is you help bring the collateral price way, way higher, right? And it helps level
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out some of that volatility in actual fact, even though the price might go up and down. But
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you know, you think about it like you could try to fight to pay down the debt, right? Or the equity
00:19:30.000
goes up, right? And if the collateral is rising significantly, you don't have to worry as much
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about paying off the debt. Yeah, you're managing it. You're more than managing. You're ahead of the
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game. You can let those debts sit there. And you can you have the best collateral in the world. You
00:19:43.660
have nothing to worry about. And just a quick reminder about the gold and silver. When you see
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a sell off, it's not what you think. It's not the physical that's being sold off, ladies and gentlemen.
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They're the ETFs. They're the futures contracts. It's all paper, paper, paper that are sitting.
00:19:59.880
Yes, it's still liquid for now. This is what they've been using for decades to, you know, bail
00:20:06.200
themselves out. Imagine that I can. Let's say I'm in I have debt and I have a lot of debt trouble
00:20:11.120
and financial issues and CRA is coming after me. Imagine I can pay off that with with Canadian
00:20:16.660
tire money. No offense to Canadian tire. I'm a big fan of Canadian tire. But imagine being able to sell
00:20:21.160
to cover a margin call with paper gold. Right. Right. This is what we're talking about here. Right. So
00:20:27.880
the the the the financial, no more spinning of plates, no more juggling. They kick the can down
00:20:33.540
the road. The road came to an end. It's time to fix all these things. And our buddy, buddy,
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David Bateman on the yen carry trade real quick. OK, he goes, what would happen if the value of goods
00:20:43.240
and oil deflated at the same time the currency inflated? So Japanese yen is going up. Oil is going
00:20:49.440
down. We're seeing a little bit of both inflation and deflation at the same time. Everything might seem
00:20:53.700
normal for now, he says. If bricks decrease their usage of the dollar at the same time,
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which is what's happening. OK. You could probably unwind the carry trade without a liquidity collapse.
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The mirage could last for a while, but the tell would be a spike in precious metals,
00:21:10.060
followed by a spike in the prices in broader commodities complex. Very quickly,
00:21:14.460
who's David Bateman for the audience that doesn't know? Oh, he's a tech genius,
00:21:18.820
tech wizard. He founded Entrada, which is one of the world's largest property management softwares.
00:21:26.300
He's also heavily involved in natural foods and anti-pharma. So we were a big fan, especially
00:21:34.080
because he's into physical precious metals. He's moving away from all the paper and he's waking
00:21:38.560
people up and not only highlighting the benefits. He bought like half a billion dollars worth.
00:21:44.280
One of the largest crazy amount of silver. And he did that at the beginning of last year. Right. So
00:21:49.160
he's done tremendously well. And so, you know, he can back up his statements because he's put his
00:21:55.260
money where his mouth is. Speaking of putting your money where your mouth is, I want to get to
00:21:59.780
Michael Oliver, because we were talking about at the top of the show, we mentioned a forecast
00:22:04.580
from Bank of America that was just looking at gold, $5,000 an ounce. What would happen if the
00:22:12.040
silver to gold ratio were to revert to a mean, which, by the way, we have been seeing? So the
00:22:18.100
trend is your friend in that respect. But Michael Oliver also has some forecasts. Now, just to remind
00:22:24.880
everyone, you'll give his background, of course, but he called for silver to get to $70 last year
00:22:30.420
in July when I think silver was trading around $30 an ounce. So everyone, including myself,
00:22:37.380
thought he was absolutely nuts. Turns out he wasn't crazy at all. So again, like you might not want to
00:22:43.800
sell your metal. And if you're thinking about getting into the market when you're seeing numbers
00:22:48.440
like two to $300 or where Michael Oliver sees it going, you may still be early.
00:22:54.800
Yeah, exactly. You haven't missed the boat at all. That's probably the number one question. Why should
00:23:00.560
I be buying here? Why should I be buying at all time highs? The major thing, what Michael Oliver
00:23:05.100
talks about or David Bateman talks about, you want to value your wealth right now in ounces because
00:23:09.400
those currencies are being destroyed. The rate of inflation that Jeremy mentioned is 6%. I liken it
00:23:15.460
more to 13% year over year. And that compounds. We're literally in a fight. So you have to get
00:23:21.080
position in an asset that is not only safe, it's tier one, and that's going to grow for you more
00:23:26.460
than the rate of inflation and even grow more than the withholding taxes or any income tax and just
00:23:32.060
maintain your wealth, your standard of living. But we incorporated, you know, Michael Oliver's
00:23:37.500
analysis. He has some tremendous stuff. His stuff has been reported on Wall Street Journal and some
00:23:44.880
other major mainstream outlets. But his stuff is focused primarily on momentum structural analysis.
00:23:51.080
And, you know, when he said 72 by the year end, I mean, we were still in the 30s. We didn't even
00:23:56.180
break out at all time highs, which was at $49. And now he's forecasting for, at this point,
00:24:03.640
he has a reasonable target, he says, of $144 an ounce within the next, he says within the next 55
00:24:11.460
months. I thought it was, he was looking for sooner than that. Yeah, basically he goes, I'm not crazy.
00:24:16.860
Michael says $150 to $200 is not a problem. And if the magnitude slips, it can go anywhere from $300
00:24:25.300
to $400. And he even mentioned $500. His logic is very simple. It's the magnitude of the move that
00:24:31.720
matters. Remember, he's talking about momentum and participation. And we're not talking about mom
00:24:36.760
and pop buying silver. This is countries buying silver companies, Samsung buying silver, a very
00:24:42.640
small little market. That's not getting enough silver out of the ground by from the mines.
00:24:48.060
So it doesn't have to stay here long is what he says. It has to go there for a minute. And this he
00:24:53.140
can happen within the next six months. So three to potentially $500. It's six months. Again,
00:25:00.600
we're going to say he's crazy. But you know what? Last year, we said he was crazy when he called 72
00:25:05.440
by year end. We stuck at 72 by year end. You know, Jerry, sometimes when you aim for the stars,
00:25:11.160
you might just hit the moon. So look, there's a lot of things happening in the markets today. We have
00:25:16.540
the critical mineral designation from the US, they're creating their own smelting capacity,
00:25:22.240
five year deficit in silver. Some of these forecasts sound crazy. Not when you start to put these numbers
00:25:28.460
together as well as looking at, well, what's been resolved? Right? Has the supply demand been
00:25:33.460
resolved? Do you feel like you have money in the bank? Do you feel like you can go out and spend
00:25:37.740
money? Right? Do you feel like your money's going further? Are you getting a raise? These sorts of
00:25:42.720
things like these are telltales as well, that give you a sense that yeah, these have been resolved. Do you
00:25:48.640
feel free to invest in the stock market? I mean, a lot of people that we speak to, they don't feel
00:25:53.040
confident investing in the stock market, perhaps when some of these factories are made,
00:25:57.460
and you can see the numbers, and there's proof in the pudding, maybe they'll decide,
00:26:01.480
yeah, I feel safe to do that, right? We've always believed that people will at some point sell
00:26:06.500
two thirds, three quarters of their metals and still always want to hold some physical.
00:26:11.720
So with that said, speaking of physical, with Guildhall, we do help clients to hold actual physical
00:26:17.420
gold and silver, you can buy it direct with us. We also offer storage, where you hold the product
00:26:24.020
physically in your own sub account at Brinks, the bar numbers are listed, you have get access to the
00:26:30.480
vault to go and personally audit your holdings, you can take delivery anytime. So there's no obligation
00:26:36.260
and there's no question of ownership, there's no counterparty risk, you maintain ownership of that
00:26:42.000
product the whole time. Of course, it's fully secured, insured, and you can buy and sell on a phone
00:26:47.540
call. And then of course, the number one vehicle that we offer is having physical gold and silver
00:26:53.260
in a registered account. This just still blows my mind that we can offer this to people. But
00:27:00.400
effectively, you're holding your own physical gold and silver in a vault facility outside the banking
00:27:05.980
system, but still within your RSP, your TFSA, your Lira, LIF, and RIF. And at this time of year,
00:27:12.140
we have a lot of clients who are taking delivery of their physical product as a withdraw. They're
00:27:16.480
taking in-kind withdraws. So they get to keep their metals as well as part of their 5%, 6%
00:27:22.600
withdraw that they're taking every year. It was a tremendous year last year, just seeing the amount
00:27:28.240
of wealth that was created by holding these assets that were undervalued, and still, in our estimation,
00:27:34.040
continue to be undervalued. So if you want to learn about holding physical gold and silver as part of
00:27:40.660
your registered account or in your TFSA, we'd be happy to show you how. Jerry, you'll walk them
00:27:45.860
through it as well. As we close up the show, any final thoughts? Yeah, just be encouraged. If you
00:27:51.240
haven't bought yet, get in touch. We love to just sit and chat. We're always welcome to the office.
00:27:56.220
Coffee's always on. We love meeting new people. We love meeting people that watch Rebel News. We
00:28:01.200
really support the channel, the team here. It's been a great run so far. We look forward to the growth.
00:28:07.180
You haven't missed the boat. The precious metals market is now getting fired up. We are at the
00:28:12.420
tail end of the third bull cycle. The growth fundamentals are here. It's not really just
00:28:17.900
about protecting your wealth and safeguarding it. Yes. However, we're positioning for a life-changing
00:28:24.900
experience, not just with your lifestyle, but with your portfolio, where you can safely pass on
00:28:32.900
your generational wealth. Pass it on to your kids. This is what it's about, not just living for
00:28:39.560
oneself. It's about your family. I hope you had a great holiday. We thank you for tuning in and
00:28:45.760
supporting us. Reach out and give us a call, 1-877-8-SILVER, and request your investor kit. We
00:28:51.600
have these, which we can email to you digitally. Check out the website, guildhallwealth.com,
00:28:57.740
guildhallpreciousmetals.com, to buy some 10-ounce bars as they are.
00:29:00.900
While they're still available? While they're still available. Set up alerts if you do want
00:29:04.680
to set some targets. Talk to me about some downside targets. 75 was one which we re-dipped
00:29:09.780
today. We're back up to 76. But we look forward to helping you out, and all the best for 2026.
00:29:15.960
And stay with us with The Real Money Show going forward, because we'll give you updates on what's
00:29:20.500
happening in the gold and silver market, so you can stay up to date and know exactly if it's time to
00:29:25.860
continue to hold, or maybe sell some at this point, maybe lighten the load. But we're very excited
00:29:31.920
about 2026. We've got some great forecasts. I'm sure more are going to be coming forward.
00:29:37.360
So stay with us with The Real Money Show, Jerry. Thank you, and I want to thank everyone for joining
00:29:41.500
us this week. We can't wait to speak to you next week here on The Real Money Show.