Red Ice TV - Living in Moscow & The Ukrainian Russian Conflict 101 - Anatoly Karlin

00:00:00.000 welcome anatolia a slavic journalist living in moscow thanks for being here uh hello latin

00:00:20.360 very nice to be with you you know i was joking around before we started that these kinds of

00:00:24.480 conversations you know me as an american living in it i'm also living in an occupied country

00:00:29.220 this might be illegal soon to talk to russians in america i'm serious

00:00:34.760 uh well i mean why make it illegal when you can just kick people out of uber than uh from a

00:00:42.560 airbnb so just deprive them of their ability to make a living and seems to seems to be more

00:00:48.400 efficient that way frankly yeah it's true it's true well i of course i want to talk all about

00:00:53.200 the ukraine russia situation what it's actually like to live in russia today because

00:00:58.040 it's a total media blackout for us we don't hear from russians or russian journalists

00:01:02.420 but let's get a little bit into your uh background story as your parents i know they left russia but

00:01:07.960 then you repatriated so tell us a little bit about that and that experience okay yeah sure um so i

00:01:15.680 left russia in 1994 when i was six years old i spent about a decade in the uk then about a decade in the

00:01:23.300 u.s and repatriated to russia in 2016. well i mean i enjoyed my time in the world broadly speaking

00:01:33.140 uh but uh at the end of the day i identified as a dushan and uh it ultimately seemed to me incongruent

00:01:41.060 uh to some extent uh cringe to uh maintain that identity uh while uh living on foreign soil

00:01:48.520 essentially uh so uh yeah i mean that was the the primary ultimately impulse for me to the patriot

00:01:55.320 now where were you living when you left russia i'm sorry i didn't catch that

00:01:59.480 uh when i was uh in the bay area in the u.s okay oh yeah san francisco yeah yeah lots of russians

00:02:08.160 there too i still have lots of family there my parents grew up in the avenues there in the 50s

00:02:12.240 before there was a syringe and poop on the streets uh now now in your view is living in america i know

00:02:19.180 you were still young but um younger uh versus russia do you like russia better do you think it has more

00:02:25.640 to offer uh well i mean what i would say is that uh basically all the amenities uh and the societies

00:02:34.860 that you have in uh in uh something like the bay area i mean they're accessible in moscow people do

00:02:40.920 seem to have very um very much out of date impressions i mean there's uh things like uh food

00:02:46.300 malls if you want to ski you can well a flight to sochi is uh is uh more expensive and a bit longer

00:02:53.220 than uh driving to uh to tahoe or whatever uh but it's not not not ultimately a big deal uh so um

00:03:00.720 if you're talking about just quality of life issues uh frankly there's everything in moscow that you

00:03:06.840 have in the bay area probably frankly like even if you're talking about various uh fringe communities

00:03:12.260 like transhumanists for instance i mean the silicon valley is obviously the primary hope for them but 0.99

00:03:17.440 moscow has tons of them as well uh so yeah i mean if you're if you're looking to have uh people

00:03:23.560 have interesting conversations with or uh to um to various uh hobbies or like pursue like sweeply

00:03:32.840 things like stuff white people like uh then yeah i mean i mean uh moscow isn't any worse for that in

00:03:38.900 my opinion than uh than the bay area and of course considerably cheaper as well although of course that's

00:03:45.360 mitigated by local salaries uh being correspondingly lower uh as well so it's not all sunshine and

00:03:52.460 those is obviously i mean obviously a uh 70 years of uh of communist economics uh still making itself

00:03:59.580 felt to a large extent uh so i mean that's inevitable yeah uh but overall overall i'm uh i'm positive

00:04:07.180 on russians prospects uh and it is a good feeling to have all these uh all these amenities and

00:04:14.740 entertainments accessible to myself while being amongst people i consider to be my own yeah exactly

00:04:21.780 now do you think you're in the big city do you think that russia is going to be more susceptible

00:04:25.620 to global homo i know you know that term in the coming years because some people on this side

00:04:30.360 on our side of the world speculate that oh well russia is probably just 20 years behind or so what's

00:04:37.080 your opinion on that uh well my opinion on that is that there was a substantial risk and some

00:04:44.120 indications that this was happening amongst uh sort of uh young university university students in

00:04:49.840 particular uh at the more prestigious universities but i mean that's how it always works right it starts

00:04:55.780 to seep in into the demographic cohorts which are most integrated with uh with the west and spread for

00:05:03.500 there essentially uh of course uh the uh distancing that russia has been doing from the west uh which

00:05:10.180 has the lakes are elevated for obvious reasons uh since uh february uh 22nd um that's going to put

00:05:18.980 a major clip on that uh so i'm uh relatively white pilled about that this is uh the uh i mean i mean

00:05:26.120 yeah i i do i do agree with it with this that uh those stats do exist uh but um like even now it's

00:05:34.080 if to a country like poland uh russia is sort of like less advanced in that process

00:05:38.760 yeah now putin's on the screen now do you like putin do the majority of people like putin i know

00:05:47.020 there's some uh nationalists you know in other countries that say well he he might also be controlled

00:05:51.680 by foreign interests namely uh zionists what's your thought on that i mean i think there's a lot

00:05:58.880 of uh schizophrenia about yeah and a lot of sort of conspiracy uh theories um i mean i could sort of

00:06:05.620 see that point why nationalists might have a problem with putin because yes i mean if you're talking

00:06:10.220 about the mid to late 2010s in particular he was uh the russian state was undoubtedly repressing

00:06:17.740 nationalists and organizations under the article took on and dated to hate speech laws and uh there

00:06:23.580 was also very strong feelings of the rather uh that's a betrayal uh well it's sort of like a common

00:06:30.060 term uh in one section national is borrowed from the ukrainians uh in in regards to uh the then pass

00:06:35.900 for instance a lot of suspicions that uh putin uh was sort of like um planning to abandon that entire

00:06:42.380 project uh project uh so there was uh like uh increasing immigration uh labor migration from

00:06:49.340 central asia which again is a sort of sensitive issue amongst nationalists uh but since uh since

00:06:56.220 the late 2010s uh uh life has become a lot better for russian nationals because uh at that point putin

00:07:04.140 has started uh sort of fulfilling most of the core demands of of russian nationalism uh mainstream

00:07:10.700 national nationalism i'm not talking about like marginal wick nuts and 1448 type of people yeah

00:07:15.980 but but mainstream nationalism so i discussed that at considerable length in my article one of my last

00:07:21.980 articles for the review it's called russians nationalists uh but to briefly summarize uh uh on all those

00:07:29.420 points which i just mentioned there was a change for the better so uh article 282 uh the hate speech law

00:07:37.020 was decriminalized uh three four years ago a few years ago uh the immigration laws were progressively uh

00:07:46.620 reoriented uh towards towards privileging uh russian speakers and uh people with uh russian uh sort of

00:07:54.620 family backgrounds and uh uh uh the um uh the constitution was the the written to de facto define

00:08:04.220 russians as the uh uh the nation forming the state the state forming uh uh uh people of the russian

00:08:11.340 federation uh so why is this significant uh well because uh uh i mean a lot of actually eastern

00:08:18.620 east central european countries do have a clause in their constitution which which defines which says

00:08:23.500 that the state belongs to the uh sort of the titular nationality uh of that country and even the

00:08:31.500 is israel israel for instance uh defines itself as a jewish state even though uh israel is only 75 jewish

00:08:39.180 whereas dussia is uh uh almost 85 percent ethnic dussian so why uh should we uh exercise this

00:08:47.180 anti-modesty that relative to the israelis for instance who do not feel at all ashamed that defining

00:08:53.100 themselves as the sort of like that that israel belongs to jews which is okay from their perspective 0.97

00:08:59.180 so why can't we have the same thing so yeah i mean and uh obviously for for obvious reasons uh like in

00:09:05.820 the summer last year in particular integration processes with belarus accelerated and now uh putin has

00:09:12.860 sort of uh started the uh dissolving the ukraine question in force uh so basically all the uh uh

00:09:21.420 political demands of russian nationalism have in effect been fulfilled over the over the three years it was a

00:09:27.500 pretty sudden uh for many unexpected term uh but uh i mean for people who are not obsessed with uh

00:09:35.660 like personal issues they have with putin or with various conspiracy theories about uh how he's a

00:09:41.500 zionist or a finn i mean there's some pretty funny theories about yeah we've heard it all too but you're

00:09:48.300 right he goes back and forth on different things and he said some incredibly great things that we agree

00:09:53.180 with that we've said i mean many times and the way that he's calling out the west for all their

00:09:56.940 garbage you know the way he's uh you know discussed communism in the past and all that so there's a

00:10:02.780 little uh flipping and flopping backing back and forth which i i do want to get into that later about

00:10:08.380 the denazification stuff as well we'll get into that but uh biden claimed recently there there was

00:10:13.420 200 000 russians that were fleeing russia and i even heard that this includes gays who are going to

00:10:20.300 istanbul because i guess it's a safer to go to a muslim country than in russia now is there any truth 0.93

00:10:26.860 to this i mean 200 000 russians leaving and if and if they are it's the russians that you don't want 0.99

00:10:32.780 so go ahead and leave right be doing you a favor honestly i mean yeah i mean 200 000 uh i mean yeah

00:10:39.900 probably two frankly um 145 million people not that relevant to be frank like even if you even if

00:10:46.780 you're talking about young people in particular i mean yes they are uh undeniable that they're more

00:10:52.940 money than the higher skilled than the average uh but uh on the other hand i mean we have to be

00:10:58.700 realistic about these things this is uh like millions of russians left in the 1990s i mean the uh

00:11:05.260 uh even from like a human capital perspective the diaspora from the uh late 80s to 90s was vastly bigger

00:11:12.780 than whatever's happening now uh uh not not even mentioned the white immigration which as i

00:11:18.540 understand as you said you're a part of uh so yeah i mean you're part of the white immigration and i'm

00:11:23.900 part of the uh sort of like the diaspora that's not okay during the yeltsin either uh this is basically

00:11:31.500 an order of magnitude if not uh if not more uh smaller than that uh that's the first thing the second

00:11:37.180 thing frankly i think there's a very high uh chance that many of those people will uh uh sort of spend

00:11:43.260 some time in belisi and tough cat which is where they actually are uh because those are the only

00:11:49.420 countries which which it's easy for russians to sort of like uh go into it's not like the west itself

00:11:55.820 is open to them it's not like they're even giving out visas uh to russians which is appreciated frankly

00:12:01.500 uh that's that's a good thing for the yeah uh at the end of the day but yeah i mean they have limited

00:12:07.260 savings so i mean i don't really know what their game plan is i mean yes some of them will find uh

00:12:12.940 like a job or whatever in germany uh but um uh it's not as if uh the western europe is going to be

00:12:21.180 swimming in jobs anytime soon uh since they're basically creating the the economy by uh diffusing

00:12:27.820 russian gas so i mean you know that that dax is going down like a stone and um so that's the first

00:12:34.860 thing i don't think the sort of western attempts to essentially cut the out of the u.s and out of

00:12:40.620 the world economy uh going to uh like happen without the bouncing on the west itself uh the

00:12:48.380 soaring fertilizer by the prices that's probably another uh big refugee wave uh in another few months 0.99

00:12:55.180 time and actually a look probably a legitimate one as opposed to 2015 because i mean okay like

00:13:01.900 fleeing uh hunger is sort of like a wall is pretty much just a legitimate reason for uh like refugee them 1.00

00:13:08.700 as does it gets uh so uh so yeah i mean that's what i'm asking those uh those positions who have uh

00:13:17.260 uh who are flat i mean where where are they going next i mean uh uh like what was the game plan uh not

00:13:23.100 uh i i i don't think i i think the economic impact on the russian economy per se is going to be

00:13:29.660 uh limited because at the end of the day most of russia's uh export earnings are from oil better

00:13:36.220 chemicals natural gas uh so uh the world economy isn't in a position to sort of block them and even if

00:13:43.660 the west somehow managed to block it i mean it would just sell it to china and things yeah uh so um

00:13:49.340 um no i don't i don't think that it's going to be uh frankly that that big of a deal uh it's by and

00:13:55.900 large it's going to uh to uh stay away long term in my opinion yeah it'll be west it'll be worse for

00:14:02.540 the west and russia will will probably be okay that's what's going to happen uh you know here we're

00:14:08.460 getting major gas hikes and they're blaming everything on putin even biden talking about you

00:14:13.020 know supply was it food shortages putin like everything is putin's fault right now it's crazy even

00:14:18.300 though we know that this is all part of their agenda anyway that they had in the plans before

00:14:22.460 we'll get into that great reset later but i want to ask you what do russians think of all the uh

00:14:27.100 russophobia and the putin bans in the west like it is just insane i i saw even his uh black belt 0.94

00:14:34.140 was pulled right like his his title for that and they're even banning russian blue breeds of cats

00:14:40.460 from competitions like it is just utterly insane we've never seen it this insane what do russians think of

00:14:46.700 it uh well i mean i think ordinary russians don't really care very much because uh now again they

00:14:53.260 don't really have much of a reason to care because uh uh the average russian probably is uh isn't really

00:14:58.700 all that integrated with uh with the west so for for him i mean to the extent that they even like

00:15:03.820 normally russians call it abroad it's usually countries like turkey for instance uh which uh wow which

00:15:10.300 is not cutting cutting like sort of like uh which is not buying russians uh from flying in anyway uh

00:15:17.660 one of the supreme ironies of these of many of these sanctions as i've noted on twitter uh is that it

00:15:24.860 hits precisely the most westernized uh uh classes of russians are the ones uh which have uh like the

00:15:31.500 closest size there so for instance they banned the monetization of twitch steamers well i mean they're

00:15:36.940 probably more important than the average that's that's for sure uh they've banned monetization on

00:15:43.420 only fans for instance and porno those girls certainly don't uh don't have don't uh uh don't vote for 1.00

00:15:50.780 putin um so yeah i mean it's it's one of the supreme ironies that okay uh i in in in great britain uh one

00:15:58.460 of the earliest sanctions was that russian citizens were constrained to uh have a deposit of no more than 50

00:16:06.620 000 uh british pounds of british banks uh uh well again who does this affect it affects russians in

00:16:14.700 uh in britain in london uh you know which which is the what is probably the world's most uh anti-putin

00:16:21.100 anti-united russia constituency on the entire planet uh it's russians who literally live in london yeah

00:16:28.220 exactly uh so like in a recent like constitutional amendment vote i mean like more than 80 percent of

00:16:35.660 them voted against it which which was sort of like accepted 70 or something like that in dussia uh 80

00:16:42.780 percent of them voted against it uh the uh banning uh of visas for russians well again i mean who who

00:16:51.420 visits sort of western europe for holidays uh again it's the more western leaning russians i mean the

00:16:58.060 normian types again if they go even if they go abroad they go to turkey or therefore for that

00:17:02.620 matter they go to crimey or sochi yeah yeah we were joking around yeah i mean one of the supreme

00:17:07.340 ironies is is that is that the west is uh disproportionately punishing its own people yeah who uh

00:17:15.020 who is sort of finding something in the situation of uh of uh being very unpopular in their own country

00:17:21.820 yeah uh as well as uh getting punished by uh by the western plans that's funny to me we were joking 0.97

00:17:28.540 around oh no they're not going to have you know porn hub and netflix and all this uh degenerate crap you 0.97

00:17:34.540 know that really just ruins nations i was like oh and people were saying how to remove globo homo 0.95

00:17:40.220 overnight i'm joking around invade a country right now so let's talk into let's talk about that um because

00:17:47.740 just some one-on-one stuff about the founding of ukraine because it was important land that was

00:17:52.940 taken uh from the russians divided by the bolsheviks ukraine was basically lenin's idea so not off to

00:17:59.900 a great start right away but maybe you can just quickly summarize that uh one-on-one version for

00:18:04.460 people that might not okay yeah sure my my personal viewpoint and uh i think the viewpoint of many in

00:18:10.300 in uh in uh in russia uh is that uh uh russia ukraine or the territories uh that that sort of constitute

00:18:18.700 them uh have been in a common civilizational space uh since uh the uh since christianity came to

00:18:26.380 to lose uh in uh 1988 so for two and a half centuries for two centuries it existed such as the mongol invasion 0.92

00:18:36.460 the expansion of the of uh uh the duchy of lithuania and the polish kingdom uh sort of split split the

00:18:43.020 russian land up and uh the early russian tsars made their historical mission to gather up the so-called

00:18:50.220 russian the russian lands and they largely achieved that uh over the ensuing centuries uh then came uh and

00:18:58.780 uh and uh and yes obviously uh as as a pre-industrial state uh there was uh there were a lot of regional

00:19:07.260 variations a lot of regional dialects for obvious reasons uh but frankly this was the case in many

00:19:13.820 many countries so uh the northern french and the southern french were mutually unintelligible uh

00:19:21.020 like all throughout the middle ages and early modern period it was really only the spread of uh mass

00:19:26.460 schooling that uh unified the french nation linguistically uh even in uh england uh like

00:19:33.180 there were parts of it like cornwall which sort of like spoke their own uh celtic language and i think

00:19:37.900 it's all the 18th century as well so i'm in this process of uh of standardization linguistic unification

00:19:45.020 nation building that sort of a natural process that many countries uh go through during the uh the

00:19:50.780 era of industrialization mass urbanization uh which uh the russian empire was embarking on by the late uh

00:19:58.380 19th century uh the uh as i see it basically the bolsheviks uh uh artificially uh divided condition nation so

00:20:07.180 the fellow dushan soviet socialist republic uh even though like my fact practically no bill adushan

00:20:13.740 considered themselves uh to be like like bill adushan uh uh in in the in those uh in those periods

00:20:20.700 and uh in in in in the ukraine as well so i mean you could make an argument that the uh areas of uh

00:20:28.300 that galicia which belonged to uh the austro-hungarian empire really was by that point a separate nation

00:20:35.420 something separate from uh from the russian people because yes i mean it had been part of uh of uh

00:20:41.500 the midi of of russi initially but it had spent uh frankly nine nine centuries or so sundered from

00:20:49.420 it so i mean that's a long period uh if you probably realistically yes it uh sort of like built its own

00:20:55.820 identity uh by that point uh but as the gods as the gods uh the the rest of ukraine as the gods especially

00:21:03.900 the territories of novodosia which is uh novodosia which is the southern and eastern ukraine uh which were

00:21:10.780 frankly on the like really only even belonged to ukraine uh because of uh russian arms uh which

00:21:17.340 uh which uh conquered them from the crimean hammer uh in the in the 18th century and allowed its

00:21:23.260 settlement by uh by both russians and uh and the letter russians as ukrainians were called back then

00:21:30.140 uh that's basically the only reason that it exists in ukraine and the fact that those territories were

00:21:36.220 folded into the uh uh the the entity called the ukrainian soviet socialist republic in the soviet union

00:21:43.420 uh which uh promoted uh uh its own sort of separate identity uh during uh the criminalization either

00:21:51.180 as opposed to say the kuban which in demographic terms actually had a pretty similar uh 50 50 type of

00:21:58.700 makeup uh uh the same as southern ukraine um uh the the kuban that's like uh uh krasnodar uh cry and so

00:22:07.340 on that's like sochi uh uh but uh they they were the main part of the uh of of the dussian state

00:22:16.620 uh subdivision uh throughout the soviet era and uh they adopted a fully dussian identity and in fact

00:22:23.420 actually one of the uh irenees is that um uh in one of the is that they are probably more patriotic than

00:22:30.860 average in russia according to various opinion polls so like if uh uh one of the opinion polls uh

00:22:36.700 serving support for the year for the war uh showed that it was the uh dussian south which was most

00:22:43.100 like supportive of it uh which is highly ironic given that uh demographically it was uh like 50 50

00:22:50.220 uh ukrainian essentially essentially go now everyone's talking about this war right now the

00:22:58.540 conflict and as we know it didn't just start right this war has been going ongoing basically

00:23:03.740 for eight years there have been uh russians that have killed in in donbass for the last eight years

00:23:08.860 which no one seems to want to talk about in the west violently killed in certain regions so i

00:23:14.620 want to just back up and where where did this begin where did the conflict really begin with

00:23:18.940 ukraine in russia and why does ukraine and particularly the ukrainian government hate

00:23:25.100 these people so much now we know we can also get into ukraine in all the corruption and skepticism 0.52

00:23:30.460 surrounding their government and all the coups and it's just been it's been bad news or it's

00:23:35.260 basically been a stomping ground for corrupt billionaires to launder money and do shady deals and

00:23:40.300 so you know the ukrainian people have also had a bad deal well yeah i mean i would point out from the

00:23:45.420 very outset that uh like even on the referendum on preserving the soviet union there was um

00:23:52.060 like uh the majority of ukrainians uh like 70 percent of them approximately just like russians and

00:23:57.660 80 percent of bell russians voted in favor of it uh so this is a long-term process of of sundering

00:24:04.860 i mean which a national process to some extent whether you live in separate countries of course over time

00:24:11.020 anything that that sort of begins fakish and in code does uh steadily coalesce into something more real

00:24:19.580 uh so uh but yeah i mean even as late as 2014 according to opinion polls again uh the division

00:24:27.580 between ukrainians who wanted to integrate with the eu and the ukrainians who wanted to to instead to

00:24:33.580 join russia's customs union and i mean even that's missed the presentation because actually as we know

00:24:38.780 there was no serious prospect of ukraine joining the eu anytime soon uh but uh yeah i mean even back

00:24:45.340 then it was 50 50 division essentially and uh the uh uh you know my done essentially forced forced them

00:24:53.420 into that direction uh so uh yes and then it was coupled with uh with uh also uh nato integration

00:25:00.300 because uh yeah i mean the uh the americans had uh made a verbal promise uh to gorbachev not to

00:25:06.300 expand nato which was obviously broken uh and obviously a security concern and uh obviously

00:25:12.940 it's especially painful to uh see the security threat growing at the same time as uh uh ukraine

00:25:19.020 uh makes itself into an anti-russian project and i mean it ultimately was an anti-russian project

00:25:24.220 pursued by the uh uh by the political elites in that in that country after you and my dad

00:25:29.260 uh so uh one thing if uh you allow a free debate about uh which direction to go uh but in reality

00:25:36.540 zelensky started doing things like such as banning the uh uh removing the russian language from from

00:25:43.580 schools uh that by the way i'm also the hungarian language this is why our plan isn't uh sort of like

00:25:48.940 very friendly towards uh ukraine either uh they uh shut down pro-russian media they uh attested and

00:25:56.140 in prison for russian politicians so with which uh was wasn't present uh so which is not talked about

00:26:03.580 like like when uh yanukovych in present uh timoshenko so because the west isn't isn't only is only

00:26:10.220 interested in sort of like democracy and uh and procedure when uh when it's sort of like their people

00:26:16.460 getting the test and uh um population activists were were killed occasionally such as august uh

00:26:26.620 so it's not really an atmosphere in which there was a free and fair debate over which they

00:26:32.380 over even over which direction that would go and whether they sort of uh like the direction that the

00:26:40.220 my dynasty leads uh did decide to go uh in this uh sort of uh pursuit to integrate with nato and uh

00:26:49.180 and uh remove uh the russian cultural influence from from ukraine uh like reversing a thousand years

00:26:57.660 of shared culture history religion and so forth i'm sure that ukraine ukrainian statehood would would

00:27:03.500 have uh the main uh uh would would have survived intact like with all of with all of its territories

00:27:09.660 thankfully intact had had this not happened now as a nationalist a lot of people will say well you

00:27:15.580 should support ukraine against uh russian invaders now how do you answer that because i know they've

00:27:21.180 been separate now for what almost a hundred years or something but they're essentially the the same

00:27:26.540 people right and as a as a nationalist wouldn't you also support self-determination if there were russians in

00:27:32.940 these regions and they wanted to have their own republics i support that i support self-determination

00:27:38.140 and i think that that would give the most amount of peace that would be a solution to end the war if

00:27:42.860 ukraine could just concede on certain areas but they just won't let that happen why are these territories

00:27:49.180 so damn important for them why can't they just make peace with russia on this uh well i mean the one

00:27:57.180 thing i would point out is that uh ukraine it's it's an exaggeration to say that ukraine is done by

00:28:03.420 nationalists but russians do but the nationalists do have inordinate political influence over of

00:28:09.900 ukrainian politics so frankly any even back during the 2014 to 22 either uh there were cases basically of

00:28:18.860 ukrainian politicians saying say oh why should why don't we make it ideal on crimea uh for instance uh which is

00:28:26.940 sort of like the midway point like even even like the russian like extreme russian liberals like

00:28:31.900 navalny's like proposed something like a referendum in crimea uh to decide whether crimeans uh who want

00:28:38.140 to uh join ukraine or join join russia i mean i mean much more than the russian society uh but uh even

00:28:46.140 saying that was the vote and so like ukrainian politicians that voice that they had these investigations

00:28:51.820 opened up against them and so forth uh or intimidated by uh by ukrainian nationalists uh so uh to some

00:28:59.660 extent i mean this is uh i mean to large extent i mean i think this was simply unrealistic and another

00:29:07.180 thing i would i would point out is that public opinion frankly is very valuable uh when you have

00:29:13.020 propaganda and uh uh so as i as i said the split amongst ukrainians was 50 50 between between

00:29:19.820 between dussia and the us as late as 2014. yeah i mean i think another another point i would emphasize

00:29:26.300 is that um people people are pretty short termist and the uh uh simply the media atmosphere can make a

00:29:34.940 big uh big impact on how they view things it's not it's not as if most normies have very deeply held

00:29:43.180 political convictions they tend to go with uh uh with whatever's the flavor of the day quite frankly that's

00:29:49.660 true and there are a lot of young people in ukraine are getting hit with so much propaganda they've

00:29:54.940 grown up in that they've grown up in all these uh coups and corruption and then all this uh anti-putin

00:30:00.460 stuff and now you have the west even oscars and hollywood and just like the entire western machine

00:30:06.540 that is like supporting ukraine that is anti-russia so that's affecting a lot of these young kids so

00:30:11.180 they're ready to go pick up arms and and fight fellow slavs i want to talk about the as of these nazis in

00:30:18.060 ukraine because we know that there have also been uh you know jews finding them they're not anti-jewish

00:30:23.420 right even the adl in the u.s is saying basically they get a pass they're they're good nazis because

00:30:28.140 they're not targeting jews uh you know good good slavic nazis kill other slavs basically even uh facebook

00:30:34.780 is allowing the temporary promotion of nazism related to ukraine i mean imagine if we had nazis in 0.78

00:30:41.340 america now they call housewives like me uh nazis just because i don't don't hate myself for being

00:30:46.780 white so i guess it's different terminology when putin says nazi versus when biden says nazi but

00:30:51.500 imagine if there were real nazis in america engaging in uh warfare you know i mean they

00:30:58.380 wouldn't be so supportive it's all very fishy to me oh yeah i mean um i mean as of uh is is doing

00:31:07.740 some sort of publicity efforts to distance themselves away from uh from the uh schwastikas and so forth 1.00

00:31:14.300 though often not very successfully i mean they still can't stop themselves uh from talking about

00:31:20.540 uh uh russian uh you know ubrik mats and so forth uh but uh uh but yeah i mean they've sort of changed

00:31:27.020 their tunes obviously but uh still i don't see in what in what universe you could uh uh you could

00:31:32.700 consider say the uh proud boys to be more nazi than than as of which uh like literally uses uh

00:31:40.140 uh sort of nazi nazi symbols like they both sign up and kill and so forth i mean that but yeah i'm

00:31:49.740 but i mean i mean obviously uh it's sort of like not as uh or objective people who get to determine

00:31:57.180 these things i mean it's just like the modern rebels and uh in syria uh like that like you know that

00:32:05.420 there was that scene of the islamist uh they pick out the heart of a uh uh syrian arab army soldier

00:32:12.380 beating it live on camp so yeah i mean you recall them a rhetoric about those not the jihazis uh well 0.99

00:32:19.020 yeah you've i mean if you're if you're the west's useful idiot then they will uh obviously don't pr for 0.97

00:32:25.420 them uh even uh even camp what they were what they themselves were writing about the nazi problem 0.99

00:32:32.220 uh like even as late as last year uh into the memory hole that's right that's right ukraine was

00:32:38.860 talking about that and even mainstream news oh the problem of these nazis in the ukraine

00:32:43.660 and now they're they're practically heroes and i noticed some of them are embracing this hollywood 0.95

00:32:48.940 version of a nazi right like this psychotic you know crazy person just without uh hating jews

00:32:55.820 now and now they're they're being supported everywhere but we know that western forces 0.96

00:32:59.740 that they'll they'll use whatever side they have to to further their agenda i know assad recently said

00:33:04.460 that as well so they really just don't care uh it's just interesting to watch how they they're

00:33:09.260 getting a pass right now and i don't know are they going to be used as a fall guy or is there

00:33:13.420 just different people jumping in there claiming to be nazis so that they can do this stuff and later on

00:33:17.820 they could blame oh well it was actually the nazi groups doing all these atrocities you know 0.52

00:33:21.660 i don't know but putin said he wants the denazification of ukraine but of course they 1.00

00:33:27.020 have no no power right nazis don't have power in ukraine it's a globalist neoliberal communists and

00:33:32.620 of course there's a jewish president that's in charge of the government and being pushed by a lot of 0.66

00:33:37.500 these western neoliberal forces i mean he said he didn't even want war he wanted peace with russia

00:33:43.020 initially and now look at where we're at um but what does putin really mean when he's saying a

00:33:48.540 denazification is he just being kind of cheeky or what do you think well look look i mean putin said

00:33:56.620 a lot of things on ukraine but the one thing that he has been saying since the late 2010s uh late 2000s

00:34:05.260 even uh is that russians and ukrainians are one people and furthermore i would say that even as of

00:34:11.820 a few months ago uh soon after putin wrote that article on the historical unity of russians and

00:34:18.460 ukrainians which i strongly suggest everybody read to get to sort of like get at putin's view of this

00:34:25.260 conflict um according to a poll opinion poll 41 percent of ukrainians for that matter even even uh

00:34:33.180 like literally a few months ago agreed with that statement that ukrainians and russians are one

00:34:37.580 people so it's not some kind of french like all the french uh of the nationalist either dentists

00:34:43.980 manifest it's sort of uh reflects the majority opinion in russian villainous

00:34:49.500 and the opinion of a substantial number of people in ukraine itself

00:34:53.900 uh so uh so as so as regarding uh that's i mean that's the core the core argument in my opinion uh

00:35:03.100 but uh obviously the denazification is a rhetorical tool in that same speech uh the fact where we're here

00:35:09.980 did not the fact to announce the war uh he also said that uh um that he would also become decommunized

00:35:17.660 ukraine so it's basically a denazification and a decommunization and you can sort of uh cherry pick

00:35:25.740 whichever you want uh it's kind of your ideological election so like the communists who are fighting

00:35:32.460 to restore ussr2 uh they can uh like uh go on about the notification uh russian imperialists monarchists

00:35:40.860 and the dentists like ethno-nationalist dentists they can uh uh they can uh sort of uh like um both

00:35:48.860 uh the decommunization uh part of the message so you know putin said like literally oh oh uh you want

00:35:56.060 you want the decommunization well let's not leave a job unfinished i will show you what real the

00:36:01.580 decommunization looks like so well considering that ukraine is literally the successor of the ukrainian 0.98

00:36:07.740 soviet socialist republic uh which was uh which gained a a huge amount of its territories uh present

00:36:14.540 territories uh from from the soviet union that's sort of like um if that's that was a pretty good

00:36:23.580 pretty good throwing on putin's part uh but yeah i mean as as a marker and nazism doesn't really have

00:36:31.100 much to do with uh real historical nazism as such well i mean not not not not the uh ukrainian

00:36:37.100 that version of nazism i mean that nazism on the original uh version is nsdapism so it's a national

00:36:44.140 socialism german workers party so uh i mean obviously doesn't doesn't have any connection with

00:36:50.860 that movement whatsoever uh not nothing not in dussian portrayals of it and not in the way that

00:36:56.700 ukrainians laugh about it uh so yeah i mean my personal opinion is that it is a basically a

00:37:03.820 analytical device by and large okay got it i want to talk about too uh all this footage that's coming

00:37:10.940 out uh in ukraine that it's been a huge propaganda machine we even see hollywood producers that are

00:37:16.300 helping ukraine uh with it with their propaganda and a lot of footage that's coming out we just don't

00:37:22.060 know if it's real is it faked uh as some of it we've known is old some is actually from an old zombie

00:37:27.980 movie we found out a few years ago it's and and it's really now become the fog of war all these

00:37:32.860 different factions that are there fighting all these crazy people are coming to ukraine and picking up

00:37:37.340 guns to kill russians you have all these different interests so it's hard to know what's really 0.86

00:37:42.780 happening but there was some recent footage that came out with captured russian soldiers um who were 0.89

00:37:48.380 castrated they were shot in the balls their their bones were broken and zelensky recently just

00:37:54.700 reminded soldiers to uphold the geneva convention which of course who really does during war war is

00:38:00.540 brutal but of course though they wouldn't uh hold ukraine to this i think ukraine would probably get

00:38:05.100 a pass if russia was doing something like this it would be like nuclear war or something but what do

00:38:09.580 you think about this footage coming out uh you know russian missiles and they're hitting hospitals and

00:38:15.660 and now we see this coming out on the flip side how bad is it really there i mean because i have

00:38:20.700 talked to people in ukraine and they say they see planes there's missiles they're shooting but they

00:38:26.300 can't tell who is doing what because it's just such a mess there

00:38:32.460 oh well i mean uh i mean russia takes uh tries to uh target military personnel to the extent possible

00:38:40.220 uh i mean it's obviously not going to be possible all the time but uh uh if you're occupying a wall

00:38:47.100 for instance then it becomes a valid military target and that's the guys the bombing of that

00:38:52.220 maternity hospital in mariupol well i mean frankly it was publicly announced that it had been

00:38:57.180 vacated uh three or four days ago before the bombing and occupied occupied by uh uh ukrainian

00:39:04.140 military uh so i mean i don't i don't like going down that rabbit hole but i do think that

00:39:10.620 that type of woman woman was shown was like the crisis actor because i mean that the hospital

00:39:15.340 had literally been closed for three days and she later appeared in another photo shoot this time

00:39:19.980 accepting uh food from uh from like a nutrition humanitarian truck uh so pretty skeptical about

00:39:26.700 that um the um i think about uh the uh war crimes uh the shooting in the kneecaps uh that video seems to

00:39:35.180 have been geolocated uh it seems does seem to have uh to have been legitimate uh as in the i'm not

00:39:43.180 fake uh i don't think that it's a very good idea for the ukrainians to do this because like even

00:39:48.860 modality and ethics aside because uh uh i mean russia has a lot more uh ukrainian presence of war than

00:39:55.260 the converse uh so you know that's just not a very good idea from that perspective though i suppose if

00:40:02.700 you're very cynical uh the intention behind this could be to uh uh to uh anger the russians

00:40:09.180 sufficiently so uh sufficiently so that uh ukrainian soldiers would be more afraid of uh deserts or

00:40:16.060 surrendering uh so that's sort of like a there is a kind of logic to that as well well even if a

00:40:22.140 very cynical one i'm just gonna make it worse for them and it's it's horrible for me to see this you

00:40:27.100 know as a russian too like i don't want to see i don't want to see more brotherly wars like i don't

00:40:31.980 want to see any of this and i know that it's just being instigated there's other forces that are

00:40:37.900 stirring the pot right and basically more white people are dying you know and it's it's horrible

00:40:44.060 to see and my question is why is this so important to globalists why is ukraine and getting to russia

00:40:51.180 so important i know some people theorize as part of the great reset and uh and russia stands in the

00:40:57.100 way what is your view i mean uh the uh west has been trying to integrate uh ukraine into its security

00:41:05.180 and uh like geopolitical structures for for decades um and i mean it sort of it does make sense because

00:41:12.220 a dush without ukraine is uh all else equal a weak country uh well i mean it's basically uh used to be 0.89

00:41:20.620 50 million now more like 35 million people uh who share the same culture with russians would be very

00:41:26.620 easy to integrate uh don't have a history outside of galicia of uh resistance uh against russia when

00:41:35.260 they were part of the like even the soviet union uh so obviously this would be a big boom to russia and uh

00:41:42.620 well not not as big of a relative boom to the west uh but uh but still i mean um like this this is a

00:41:50.620 long long running process and uh like even even integration with the eu uh which they were trying

00:41:57.580 to force it i mean if you recall the in 2014 the choice wasn't uh uh they didn't allow a choice of both

00:42:03.420 the eu and the russian customs union they it was the eu which is just the time to be one or the other

00:42:09.260 uh and so uh to that extent substantially forced the uh they call the revolution uh so i think yeah i

00:42:17.980 mean let's say it's uh just for these uh sort of like uh my out of these considerations that a

00:42:24.220 a dush without ukraine would be a weaker version and more it's often more susceptible to uh to western

00:42:31.420 influence over the long run to acknowledge and agree that it is a huge tragedy that it ended up being a

00:42:37.980 war because there were i mean ideally uh russia and ukraine could have integrated under the egos

00:42:44.860 of the uh uh customs union of the like a sort of like a eu-like structure uh the alternative which

00:42:52.940 was pursued after after 2014 was the so-called minsk accords uh in which ukraine was supposed to

00:43:00.300 federalize uh the idea there was that uh the eastern and southern provinces which were more russian

00:43:07.020 leaning could over time naturally naturally drift towards russia simply by weight of their economic

00:43:12.940 and cultural links to russia uh but uh this was made impossible i mean the uh those files were

00:43:19.100 completely purged from the ukrainian government as i said uh russian cultural media influence was

00:43:25.740 forcibly shut down uh without any complaints from the west that i mean it's it's logical from the state of

00:43:32.460 uh from the point of view of uh of ukrainian nation building uh but uh um obviously russia back to

00:43:39.180 different uh so and eventually we came to this uh sort of uh well that tragic crossroads essentially

00:43:48.380 now what do you think is a is a peaceful solution i know russia had some reasonable demands right they

00:43:53.020 wanted for ukraine no nato membership for ukraine and nato shouldn't exist anymore anyway uh no militarization

00:44:00.860 of course the denotification which we talked about and then stop limiting the russian language in

00:44:06.300 ukraine uh that those were their demands uh what do you think is a peaceful solution oh you see here

00:44:14.300 here's the thing i mean i would say from the outset that uh the ukrainians aren't interested

00:44:18.620 aren't interested in this according to opinion polls at least somewhere a week or two ago uh 90 percent

00:44:25.260 of ukrainians literally thought that they were winning uh so why on earth would you uh give concessions

00:44:32.380 to a country that you think you're beating uh that's the first thing and the second thing is i mean i mean

00:44:38.220 okay like even even if zelensky uh like went ahead with this uh the uh he'd frankly get assassinated by the

00:44:47.420 nationalists i mean uh the this this isn't the realistic i mean that these people literally shot one of the

00:44:54.220 the people on the negotiating team because they had suspicions that he was an agent i don't know if

00:44:59.980 that was was uh was correct or not but but uh you know i mean there's some crazy people there uh who

00:45:07.420 have really maximal maximalist demands and would stop at nothing uh short of tradition withdrawal from

00:45:13.900 the bass and even crimea uh to say nothing of all those other points uh so that's the first thing i

00:45:20.220 mean the political class isn't thought to uh maximalist ukrainian nationalists but the second

00:45:26.140 point is that even non-ukrainians believe that they are winning because that's what the tv tells them

00:45:32.140 uh so uh frankly until until at least the ukrainian army uh isn't getting decisively beaten and for

00:45:42.060 that to happen at the minimum i would expect you'd need the full encirclement and the liquidation of the

00:45:48.220 pocket and then pass uh i don't think any any negotiations are realistic any negotiations that

00:45:55.420 lead to a a peace deal at any rate this is why from the beginning i have been saying that all all

00:46:01.180 negotiations are a charade and self-loving otherwise uh that i've been proven correct so far yeah so this

00:46:08.140 could be going on for a long time do you think it's going to be going on a long time because i remember

00:46:11.260 you had some other predictions yeah yeah i mean i got i got most of my predictions right so i was

00:46:18.380 correct on the invasion uh up until even the date uh and i was uh correct on another thing such as

00:46:26.380 uh china supporting uh or at least acquiescing to russia uh on many of the economic notifications uh on

00:46:34.220 the fact that uh need uh that russians would not overthrow putin because of this that the

00:46:39.820 war is relatively popular in russian society that uh the oligarchs have no power the so-called

00:46:44.780 oligarchs in russia contrary to popular opinion in the west have no power over over putin's decision

00:46:51.020 making uh but yes i mean i did sort of uh uh take a big l uh in uh in the modern jargon uh on the

00:47:00.060 legislation of the conflict i thought that it would be wrapped up in a matter of uh several

00:47:04.140 or a few weeks uh much uh much like uh like along the model of uh in reality it now seems that the

00:47:12.540 obvious that is going to take several months yeah because oh i guess you couldn't have anticipated to

00:47:17.820 all the support that they were going to get and just i mean they're talking about it at the oscars

00:47:21.500 for crying out loud it's amazing how all these anti-gun people in america all these annoying liberals 0.98

00:47:25.820 are now like yeah go kill russians and blow them up and tanks and guns and now they support 1.00

00:47:30.940 you know ethnic nationalism for ukrainians and it's just mind-blowing for people like us who have 0.99

00:47:36.540 literally lost bank accounts and been banned and censored everywhere for supporting these things for

00:47:42.300 other people at other times and it is amazing too how biden is accusing russia of everything that

00:47:48.620 he's doing jailing protesters censorship banning ending free speech pushing state propaganda on the

00:47:55.340 news war murder conquest i mean these are globalist american values and all we hear right now is

00:48:01.500 putin putin russia russia russia you know like he's the only guy on the planet that does does these things

00:48:06.700 but uh what is your level of of censorship in russia right now i mean are you being are people being

00:48:14.620 censored and banned and they can't talk about things how bad is it uh well i mean there was a law

00:48:20.780 introduced against uh discrediting the armed forces which i think is is sort of more defensible than uh

00:48:28.460 than western speech codes on the uh uh because at least dussia is he is in a pretty serious war

00:48:34.860 uh so it has that going for it and uh uh but to date it's only uh it's only boiled down to pretty minor fines

00:48:42.380 essentially uh so uh um not not something you'd go to jail for uh whereas in uh czechia in slovakia uh

00:48:53.020 they've actually introduced uh criminal responsibility for making coalition um like uh statements and in uh

00:49:00.300 latvia there was decently a video blogger television video blogger who was arrested because his uh video

00:49:06.780 was supposedly celebrated russian armed forces uh so it seems that relative to those east central

00:49:13.100 european uh countries uh um like uh who are not even at war themselves uh i mean i can sort of i mean

00:49:21.740 i mean objectively i can see why ukraine now would be locking up the russians i mean that sort of to be

00:49:27.100 expected if you're at war yeah and i mean to a less extent that also applies to russia as well because i

00:49:32.620 mean russia itself isn't being formed or whatever but russian troops are involved in a special military

00:49:38.180 operation uh so uh the uh the west world is subjecting russia to unprecedented

00:49:44.260 sanctions so uh at least in those grounds it's at least uh somewhat more defensible in my opinion

00:49:51.860 now with all of this happening russia is basically getting driven into the arms of china more uh

00:50:00.140 no how is that going to change things with a stronger relationship between russia and china

00:50:04.940 if they pull away from the west uh well that's going to be a more trade between russia and china

00:50:10.460 obviously uh the uh i mean one of the points i've been making since the late 2010s again is that there

00:50:16.060 is a great verification uh occurring uh i mean i think the future of the world is a sort of like a

00:50:23.500 like the western sphere the us that's various allies and satellites so mostly western europe

00:50:29.500 um like big one civilization and uh uh the china also having a large sphere of influence called the

00:50:38.300 sinosphere so well i mean obviously russia is going to uh to tell much more towards the sinosphere

00:50:45.340 uh in this uh global rearrangement uh but i wouldn't call it a dependency like many

00:50:51.580 people uh like many western analysts are saying with shadow floyd i mean one thing i would point out is

00:50:58.140 that russia does have 145 million people uh possibly soon to be 180 or 190 million people it's very

00:51:05.660 like like belarus ukraine uh become united uh so and uh who have a lot of level it's really high

00:51:15.660 degree of human capital so i mean i would say that even a country like idam manages to then a pretty

00:51:22.060 modern civilization it even has its own commercial uh airline fleet uh it produces its own cars uh so

00:51:31.500 if uh if iran can do it which has been subject to the very harsh sanctions in that since 1979 i think

00:51:38.620 it's a relative no-brainer that russia will be able to uh given that sort of uh human capital advantages

00:51:44.620 its much larger population uh it's uh like higher iq uh population and uh the fact that uh the west

00:51:52.540 share of global gcp is uh has been decreasing progressively over the past uh the past uh several

00:52:00.700 decades uh relative to china and increasingly to india and so forth uh so uh um i'm pretty don't think

00:52:09.580 this is going to be a uh a uh that big of a deal as many westerners are hoping in terms of socially

00:52:15.580 of pushing back with this frankly many of the uh technologies that russia is going to miss it can

00:52:21.660 either manufacture itself or it uh such as such as uh airplanes for instance so i mean we do have the

00:52:28.860 mc-21 and the superjet uh so these are like airliners which are almost entirely made up of components

00:52:37.820 which are domestically produced and uh uh those uh things that uh those you can't uh produce such as

00:52:45.180 uh uh like the most advanced uh uh microchips uh chip fabs are actually very expensive uh so that's

00:52:52.940 a flight constraint uh but uh yeah i mean that can be made good with uh with uh with chinese imports

00:53:00.140 essentially uh obviously the americans are not going to be happy with this they're going to be talking

00:53:05.020 of sanctioning china but the good thing is that uh chinese-american uh ties as i said are

00:53:11.020 progressively breaking down anyway uh they have been ever since the americans started the sort of uh

00:53:16.700 depressing huawei uh so i think that's going to play a decrease increasingly a small part in chinese

00:53:24.860 decision making on what to provision to russia now after all of this that's been happening do you think

00:53:32.140 would you say russians are more united was my first question and then the second thing would be

00:53:38.220 what else do we need to know in america what else as a russian would you want to say to americans

00:53:43.820 something that's where we're missing or not here okay yeah yeah sure i mean uh the uh uh russian society

00:53:50.620 is united back behind this i said from the outside that i think that something like 60 70 percent of

00:53:56.780 people supported the military operation and now and opinion polls have since confirmed it uh if

00:54:02.220 anything support for it has gone up uh in the weeks since uh frankly i mean yeah i mean if the war

00:54:08.700 dags on for a long time without successes visible successes probably support will go down uh but for

00:54:15.100 now it's very high uh frankly you have to bear in mind that western journalists those who remain in dussia

00:54:21.900 they talk to a very specific subset of russians uh they tend to talk to uh anti-regime russians uh who

00:54:30.860 like dislike putler uh who are based in moscow and saint petersburg uh who are younger so frankly the

00:54:38.460 main division and support for the war in russia as with many other sort of like liberal conservative

00:54:43.820 divides isn't between uh income levels although there's a bit of that but not the main part it's not

00:54:50.220 between men and women it's not between urban and doodle but it's between uh age groups so like the boomers

00:54:57.660 supported much more than the uh like the young so like if it's like 90 support amongst amongst the

00:55:03.900 boomers then it's something like 50 50 amongst the uh the zoomers and millennials oh yeah yeah so uh so 0.98

00:55:13.820 yeah but uh but uh but overall even even amongst that uh even amongst the zoomers that's uh that's 0.98

00:55:19.820 like 50 percent who do support it but obviously if you further narrow it down to like zoomers millennials 1.00

00:55:26.860 in moscow uh the type of people who would be happy to talk to western journalists give interviews and so

00:55:32.460 forth uh well yeah then it's like 20 or 90 percent so uh but uh but not exactly that doesn't

00:55:39.660 representative of the country at large so that's uh that's the thing i would i want to say about

00:55:45.740 about supporting this as it stands uh what i would like to tell americans is that uh well ultimately

00:55:52.620 we do view it as a sort of internal dispute between eastern slavs between uh between one people

00:56:00.540 at the end of the day uh so you're not obligated to uh uh support one side or another for like any

00:56:07.980 like deep ethical or moral reason or whatever uh the one thing that i would i would sort of uh want to

00:56:14.940 mention uh from the perspective of sort of like the alt right or the uh like uh italianism as as as

00:56:24.140 concerns those people uh is that uh ukraine is a country of uh 35 million people and uh uh frankly yes

00:56:33.340 uh as uh as of is currently being lionized by the western media uh you they might think that they

00:56:41.500 have uh like allies within the western elites but all of the this is a very situational affair uh as

00:56:49.500 like in the event that they achieve their dream and uh sort of reconstitute you play within this

00:56:55.980 with within a sort of like take even take back crimea uh like uh i don't see any realistic path to that

00:57:03.340 given the military uh the doctor dominance but okay yeah let's assume that all your dreams come to

00:57:09.580 uh ukraine sort of uh gets back to its own borders gets accepted into nato the eu well what i mean i

00:57:15.580 mean what happens next uh uh the uh do you think do you seriously think that uh as always will end up

00:57:22.460 ruling ukraine well nobody's obviously not i think that's that i mean they they can't even stop gay 1.00

00:57:28.460 pride parades in kiev uh but at the time when they sort of like have uh uh like like this uh like

00:57:34.860 they they have a a license to kill population activists like essentially assassinate people like

00:57:39.820 what is pushing and so forth uh but uh they they can't even um even like like you know do anything

00:57:47.180 about this very outside expression of global horror in their own capital so uh i think what happens when

00:57:54.540 when uh when your dreams come through and uh yeah i mean somehow ukraine uh like they the ukrainians

00:58:02.140 the europeans uh look uh look away from the fact that ukraine has uh wages uh like a gcp per capita

00:58:09.340 equivalent to that of almost equivalent to that of uzbekistan and uh like except except ukraine into

00:58:16.940 uh into the eu the day after it reclames crimea okay let's let's assume this fantasy comes to what happens

00:58:23.100 though well uh i mean ukraine has that family people now uh it's got a tiny hdp uh people are you're

00:58:33.180 not going to be sort of like uh reading uh white europe into like a promise like a white wakanda after

00:58:40.220 this uh you're going to be criminalized progressively and people will very rapidly uh stop uh by caring about

00:58:51.420 about what you did in the war whatever uh you'll uh you'll simply be sidelined politically as uh

00:58:57.900 as nationalists that are nationalists white nationalists have been uh pretty much everywhere in the eu

00:59:05.420 and this is inevitable simply because uh you're not like by yourself or even in a in a putative alliance with

00:59:14.380 poland and the d4 it's not a viable uh block uh you use western social networks to communicate with 1.00

00:59:22.700 each other which are going to be shut down uh you're not energy dependent uh your population

00:59:29.100 is uh less than 100 million even in total even if you could get past your very big internal

00:59:35.100 differences between each other uh so um i mean poland and ukraine yes they're currently united uh

00:59:42.380 because uh the the polish uh would prefer that uh that uh that ukraine was literally ruled by by uh

00:59:51.180 uh i don't know like uh chaos cultists uh over russia having a border there and i mean okay that's not

00:59:58.540 even not even that unreasonable for for polls i suppose from some perspective but they do have

01:00:03.980 their historical issues themselves so where the national hero of ukraine uh but then the uh his uh

01:00:11.900 like partisans killed uh almost 100 000 polls uh during world war ii uh so that issue is going to

01:00:20.140 come to a head in the event that uh that uh polls and ukrainians sort of have to like start

01:00:28.540 integrating with each other oh i think there's going to be a lot of like cementing themselves

01:00:32.940 together even if like even if like russia like vanished like this moment they'd still have to

01:00:38.780 resolve that issue before before um they could uh um like uh provision their conditions to to to the eu

01:00:47.180 uh uh same thing with hungary hungary and ukraine also have their disputes over the hungary status of the

01:00:52.780 hungarian minority in ukraine and their language rights and so forth

01:00:56.460 so i don't really see how that's going to be realistic especially given that uh in practice

01:01:03.420 the uh eu has generally pushed the polls around quite successfully i mean they do depend on the

01:01:09.580 eu subsidies to a considerable degree uh so whenever those uh you know the those lgbt free zones that

01:01:18.620 you have in poland uh so yeah i mean they uh declare those stones which are really just for sure they

01:01:25.820 don't really mean anything yeah they're not as hardcore as we think unfortunately to trigger to

01:01:30.780 trigger the lips right uh then the eu comes around and says uh yeah well you know if you're going to

01:01:36.940 be a evil homophobes then we're not obligated to fund you you know those progressive uh dutch people uh

01:01:44.460 come around and uh yeah i mean uh not a popular viewpoint uh in the in in the uh

01:01:52.460 you know the sort of like nationalist viewpoint in the progressive uh western europe uh so yeah

01:01:57.580 they started to cut out their gifts uh very soon afterwards the those polish mayors uh say oh 1.00

01:02:03.980 we're very very very lgbt friendly and uh and uh and uh cancel those zones as soon as the eu 0.80

01:02:11.660 funding is is started yeah they were also crazy on the vaccine i'm just trying to get like from a

01:02:17.180 practical perspective and very difficult to see how uh how a country like how how like poland or the v4

01:02:24.860 block even if you putatively uh ukraine wants to join them how it's supposed to be of the audience here

01:02:33.100 the european world towards its values given that those countries are relatively poor and

01:02:39.580 no prestige in the western hierarchy yeah i think we're going to see some negative aspects too of the

01:02:46.300 of you know millions of ukrainians flooding into poland right because i mean they're they're similar

01:02:51.740 but they're different right i know there's lots of polls that are pouring into the uk but it's a lot of

01:02:56.860 people that are coming in there really fast and it is a different culture you know so we'll see

01:03:00.860 we'll see how that works i mean on the plus side at least they're european so at least they're slavs 1.00

01:03:06.060 they have that you know it's not like millions of people coming from africa or wherever um but yeah

01:03:10.860 i think that we'll see some some problems well i mean i think i think ukrainians will integrate into

01:03:17.180 poland those who stay there without much problems because yeah i mean they are a property uh pretty is

01:03:23.660 like genetically identical just like russians and uh i mean you can learn the polish language as a as an instance

01:03:30.860 laugh in like three months essentially uh yes so i don't think that's going to be a big deal

01:03:36.460 specifically but i'm really talking more about uh how their states would manage sort of to maintain

01:03:44.220 ideological uh consistency like sort of like the conservative sort of quasi nationalism that uh that

01:03:52.780 they want to promote yeah uh and how they would coordinate that between themselves at the state

01:03:58.780 level you know locked up i was more guessing towards that but yeah i mean like uh even uh ukrainian

01:04:05.980 frankly i mean poland has been i i think will benefit a huge deal in relative terms like all the polls

01:04:11.580 which i think they get to britain and uh germany and so forth they've uh basically been replaced in that

01:04:17.580 so uh thanks for this uh uh recent wave well anatolia this has been very informative i know

01:04:24.700 that we can uh speak for hours it's getting late over there in uh ruski land moscow it's been yeah very

01:04:30.940 good to have you on and hear your perspective and it's great that we can reach out and you know one of

01:04:35.260 the big things for me is is been the language barrier you know my russian is is very uh child it's on a

01:04:42.140 child level but trying to find russians to speak to an english audience is is very difficult and you

01:04:48.140 can't even find stuff online anymore just blocked out and stuff so it's great having you on uh and

01:04:54.220 sharing your perspective and i know you have some powerful takes on substack where people can go tell

01:04:59.100 us about yes yeah yep uh so yeah i mean i'm primarily blogging at substack uh thanks for showing

01:05:05.100 the page and you can follow me on twitter at katlin zero all right well thank you we'll have to do

01:05:10.860 this again sometime soon all right uh thank you thank you lana and it's been great uh being on that

01:05:17.500 ice tv speak only not i should say

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01:06:17.180 you

Red Ice TV - April 09, 2022

Living in Moscow & The Ukrainian Russian Conflict 101 - Anatoly Karlin

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