Ep 601 | Food Shortages & Supply Chains: What’s Coming? | Guest: Ross Kennedy
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Summary
Ross Kennedy, an expert in logistics and supply chains, joins us today to talk about the current state of our supply chains and what we can do about it. We also talk about a story about a Chinese company building a plant in Grand Forks, North Dakota that is strategically located near an Air Force base and what does that mean for our national security?
Transcript
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Hey guys, welcome to Relatable. Happy Monday. This episode is brought to you by our friends
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at Good Ranchers. American meat delivered right to your front door. Go to goodranchers.com
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slash Allie. That's goodranchers.com slash Allie. All right, guys, today we are talking to our
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friend Ross Kennedy. He is an expert in logistics and supply chains. We talked to him last year in
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October to tell us why the heck we are not getting the supplies and the food that we need,
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why are there food shortages, all that kinds of scary stuff. And he really walked us back from the
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ledge and explained why everything is going on, but that it's going to be okay. And so go listen
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to that episode if you haven't. It's actually one of my most popular episodes ever. You guys loved
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it because he is so good at explaining complex things in a way that the average person can
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understand. So he's going to do that again today. We're going to talk about the state of supply chains,
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why we are still unable to get the things that we want to get, but also need to get. And how is
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Russia and Ukraine affecting that? But also how is China and their current actions in places like
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Shanghai affecting that? We're also going to talk about this fascinating story that's happening in
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Grand Forks, North Dakota, where a Chinese company is trying to build a plant there that is strategically
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close to an Air Force base. And what is happening there? Is that project going to go forward? What
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does that mean for our national security? And it's not just happening there. That kind of thing is
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actually happening in strategic places across the country. What? That's crazy. So we're going to talk
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about that. We're going to talk about what we can do as an average citizen. And he's going to kind of
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paint a picture of worst and best case scenarios for just kind of the state of the world, geopolitics
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in general, but also specifically supply chains, what he thinks we can expect over the next couple
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of years. He is a great guest. You're going to learn a lot from this. It's probably going to blow
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your mind at points. And so I'm excited for you to hear it. But before we get into the conversation,
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just on a little bit of a lighter note, I hope that you guys had a wonderful Easter.
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We had a bonus Easter episode on Saturday. It was just a little mini episode just talking about the
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gospel and why the resurrection matters and why we care about Easter. I tweeted about Easter this
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week in a few times, and most of them were received how I wanted them to be received. They
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were well received. But I sent one tweet that caused controversy among Christians that I didn't
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mean for it to. I guess I should have communicated it more clearly. But I said something along the
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lines of, you know, the fact that Google doesn't do a little doodle for Easter if they do a doodle
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for so many other, so many other holidays, including other religious holidays, but they don't do one
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for Easter. And a lot of a lot of Christians are upset about that, or they point out the bias,
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which I totally understand. I'm not knocking them for pointing out that bias. However, I'm kind of
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glad that they don't. Like, let's not allow Easter to be more commercialized than it already
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is. A lot of people celebrate Christmas, whether they're Christians or not. But the resurrection
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is different. It's different. And of course, Christmas is just as sacred for Christians. But
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the resurrection is less commercialized than Christmas is. And I think that that's a good
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thing. Like, it can't be boiled down to this like trite little doodle on Google. It is offensive.
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The resurrection is offensive. The resurrection is controversial. The resurrection is polarizing.
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And I don't mean it's controversial among Christians. Like, we don't know whether it
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happened or not, which is what some people strangely thought that I was saying. I mean,
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there were literally people who follow me underneath saying, wow, you hate Christianity. You're calling
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the resurrection controversial. You hate Christians. Try to hate other religions. I'm like, oh my gosh,
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can we just take a little fraction of a second to put our thinking caps on for one second and realize
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that when I say the resurrection is controversial and polarizing and that it's okay that Google doesn't
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use a doodle, I am not saying that it's bad. I'm saying that that's what Christianity is. It's always
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been controversial to the world. It has always been polarizing to the world. It has always been
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the receiver of scorn of the world. It's always been the, it's always been a victim, although I
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don't really like to use that, use that term, I don't know, recipient of persecution in the world
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since its very beginning. The cross is controversial and offensive. The gospel is controversial and
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offensive. Genesis 1.1 is controversial and offensive. That God made the world and he is the
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authority over all of it. If you believe that, then you can believe the rest of the Bible.
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If you don't believe that, then the rest of the Bible is going to be really hard to understand and
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most of the world does not believe Genesis 1.1 and they sure as heck don't believe John 14.6,
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that Jesus is the way, the truth, and the life and that no one can come to the Father except through
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him. The fact that our God or that our God, that he became flesh and that he rose from the dead,
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that is what sets Christianity apart. That is the controversial part of it and that's what I was saying.
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I don't care if Google likes Easter. Let them be offended by Easter. Let them hate Christianity.
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I really think it's more of like an anti-West, pro-CCP bent that they have than like truly
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disagreeing with the resurrection or Christian theology. But it is a spiritual problem and I'm
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okay with that. I'm okay with Google who I think really operates in some ways in an evil way,
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understanding the gravity and the seriousness and the controversy surrounding Easter and not
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celebrating it. I don't need them. I don't need them. We're going to celebrate the resurrection as we
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have for the past 2,000 years and we are going to embrace whatever rejection or criticism or hate or
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hostility comes from that. That's what I was saying. Also, over the weekends, I ate healthy, as I said,
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on my Instagram story. I did. I'll just be perfectly honest because we're holding each other accountable.
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I did eat some like candy Easter egg, the small little candy Easter eggs on Saturday. If you don't
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know, I'm doing like a 30-day healthy eating plan and working out for at least 10 minutes a day every
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day for 30 days with my husband who has been doing that and more for 75 days. But anyway, and so I did
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cheat over the weekend on Saturday, but it's okay. On Sunday, I really wanted to, okay? And so I'm just
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gonna pat myself on the back here. I really wanted to. I really wanted one of those like Reese's
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bunnies. I really did. And one of those, it's like an Oreo bunny or no, sorry, the Reese's eggs. And then
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like the little Oreo bunny. I really, really wanted that on Saturday. And when I was sitting there in the
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afternoon on the couch and my husband was playing golf, I was like, it would be okay. It would be
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fine. I could just have a couple. And guys, instead, instead what I did was go work out. I went outside
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and worked out instead of eating the chocolate that I wanted to eat. And then what did I do? I made
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myself some guacamole and a turkey patty. That is not what I wanted to do. But let me tell you,
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just on like a serious note, is that I do think, and those of you who are super disciplined in that,
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you know this, like making those little decisions, it does, it does build something up. Like it builds
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up discipline so that the next day you say, you know what? I went the whole day yesterday without
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giving in to that temptation or whatever it was. I'm not talking about like sin temptation,
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but temptation to break the rules on your healthy eating plan. And I didn't do it. I resisted it.
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And so today I can do the same thing. It's the same thing. Like when I was talking about training
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for the half marathon every week, you know, that all you have to do is run one or one and a half
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miles more than you did last week. And you can handle that because you've already prepared.
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You've already prepared so much before this moment. It's the same thing, I think, with healthy eating
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or with any really hard decision. I actually found that's true in my career too. And I didn't mean to
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go off on this tangent, but maybe it'll help some of you that whenever I was nervous, I remember the
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first time that I came to The Blaze in 2017 and I was like doing a Facebook live and they wanted me
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to do a Facebook live and I was so nervous and I didn't know if I could do it, but then I did it
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and it was good and it was fine. And then everything after that was like, well, I did that and I was
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nervous and it was fine. And then the first time I was on Fox News or whatever, I'm like, well,
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I did that and I was nervous and it was fine. And every moment kind of builds on the last moment.
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And that's why preparation and discipline and doing scary things and doing hard things
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is so important because it helps you for whatever moment God is going to bring you to.
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And God is so strategic and he's so providential that he plans those moments and those risks that
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you take in your life so that you can be prepared and have the practice to face whatever challenge
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is coming. All right. That's the beginning of this. Kind of went a lot of different places,
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doesn't have anything to do with what we are about to talk about, but I hope it encouraged you.
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Ross, thank you so much for joining us. You joined our show in October, but could you just
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remind everyone who you are and what you do? Yeah. So I'm the founder of a company called Fortis
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Analysis. And amongst the many things that we get up to, primarily a strategic consulting firm dealing
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with logistics supply chain and national security issues. I have numerous different stakeholders
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around the U.S., around the world, and a finger in a lot of pies as far as data and information and
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seeing how these things are, you know, these complex systems are. Sometimes they work. Sometimes they are
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in the midst of a cascading failure like we are right now. And so it's been useful, I guess, to data feed
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and to be able to explain to people kind of what's going on in the world in a way that helps them
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understand. So it wasn't the initial intention of Fortis, but it's certainly become part of what
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we're doing now. Well, logistics is typically behind the scenes. As we talked about last time,
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most people today don't really think about how our orders get from point A to point B,
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how our food gets in our grocery store. We start to order it when the thing that we want is
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unavailable. Either the service that we want is unavailable, or the item that we want is unavailable,
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or the renovation is going to take longer than usual, or we can't buy a used car or even a new car.
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And really, for the first time, just your average person has really started thinking about supply
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chains. In October, we talked because there were many news stories about these shipping containers
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off the port of Los Angeles and in different parts of the country and the world that were unable
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to unload and were stuck in some cases. And people didn't really know why. And we kind of blamed it.
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A lot of Republicans just blamed it on Joe Biden or blamed it on Gavin Newsom. But you really kind of
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walked us through how the whole supply chain catastrophe that really started to bubble up
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for the average person at the end of last year, the average person started to notice it. It really goes
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back before Joe Biden a lot longer than just in the past few months. It's not the fault of any one
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politician. Can you tell us what has happened since October when it comes to supply chains? Because yes,
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people still notice this, but I think people have gotten used to it. I don't know. Tell us what has
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been going on behind the scenes and what we should still be paying attention to and looking out for.
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Yeah, of course. You know, you made a really good point there that, you know, even as recently as
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October, people were still wondering what's going on and why are these containers stuck and what's in the
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containers and why are my shelves empty? And, you know, that's normalcy bias, right? They want to get
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back to what they had, you know, understood or had known for the longest time. And now I think, you
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know, we're six months on from that and we've sort of, you know, whether it's good or bad, I'd say we've
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certainly established something of a new normal with regard to we're just kind of used to not having
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the availability of product and kind of spoiled for choice the way we were. The newer and interesting
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developments are really kind of happening. They're twofold. First is the Russia-Ukraine invasion,
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which has been discussed once or twice in a couple of different forums, right? And the significance of
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that has really been the disruption to major sources of energy that Europe and the rest of the world rely
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on, which is, you know, Russian natural gas and crude oil. You're talking about Ukrainian wheat and
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corn and industrial chemicals and products that are also made in Ukraine that are not able to
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really get out. And that whole Black Sea region, I think, has been very overlooked for most people,
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just like the, you know, container sitting off the coast of California had been a months-long issue
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before people really picked up on it, I would say at a normal, you know, normal observer level.
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And it's the same for the Black Sea. And the Black Sea is one of the most heavily watched regions of
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the world for commodities traders. What happens there has an enormous, you know, like a butterfly
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effect on different markets around the world. And so we're seeing some really significant fears of
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lack of grain being able to get to the global market out of Ukraine and Russia, some constrictions
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on energy trade. We're also seeing the impact of sanctions and how that's forcing various nations that
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trade, you know, primarily China and India, that trade with Russia. They're now denominating their
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trades and different currencies in order to get around sanctions. And so there's this
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major global trade realignment that's happening as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war.
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Yeah, and I just want to pause, I just want to pause right there and dig a little bit into that.
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And then if you could pick up the thought that you were about, that you were about to explain,
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because you tweeted, it was at the end of February, and we originally talked about having you on to
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talk about this. So I'm hoping that you can still recall and explain this. So you tweeted at the
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end of February, what happens when Russia calls the West Bluff and begins transacting business
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outside of SWIFT using Yuan and CIPS as clearing houses for trade? The bifurcation is here, I think.
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Can you explain what you mean by that? Does that have to do with what you're talking about right now?
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Yes, absolutely. So CIPS is sort of the Chinese version of SWIFT. And SWIFT is a Western, a European,
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U.S. payment transaction system that allows for companies that are operating in different
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countries to be able to safely conduct business with one another and know that the documents are
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going to be secure and that the money, it will be transacted properly. And so we use the SWIFT system
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as a way of transmitting money from bank to bank worldwide for international trade. And it's really
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been since it emerged, it's really been the dominant way that global trade gets done is denominated in
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the major currencies, the euro and the dollar primarily. And that includes for things like oil,
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that's where we have the petrodollar, where the crude price of crude oil is denominated in U.S.
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dollars. And so what China is now trying to do is utilize this opportunity and has been for some
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time planning to try to disrupt or disintermediate the Western system or SWIFT as the way of settling
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trades by using their CIPS system and denominating trades against the Yuan, the Chinese currency.
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So what I was saying in there is that in order for these countries to really break away from Western
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control and the threat of sanctions being such an impactful way to be able to modify behavior,
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Russia kind of thumbed their nose at the whole thing and said, we don't really care about your
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sanctions. We're just going to start turning the gas off to Europe. We're going to start turning off
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the tap of crude oil unless you want to, you know, we'll figure out some mechanism to do these deals
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outside of the Western system. And so you're seeing, you know, a rupee and ruble, what we call swap or
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a transaction in those two currencies. You're seeing a ruble one swap. You're seeing, you know,
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rupees in one. You're seeing these other, you know, major currencies begin to emerge that don't
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utilize the dollar, don't utilize the euro to facilitate these transactions. And that's really a
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change. It's taken away an enormous amount of influence and capacity that Europe and the U.S.
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have to kind of try to keep a lid on some of the more aggressive behaviors of countries like China
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or Russia. And so that bifurcation, the world now is sort of starting to split into two big spheres of
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commerce and trade, which is the BRICS countries, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, kind of
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leading the charge in that way. And then Western countries, which is primarily, you know, what we would
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call the transatlantic relationship between North America and Europe is really beginning to split
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apart and become two totally separate things. Whereas before, you know, the BRICS, you know,
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kind of had to be a bit, you know, tied to the U.S. and Europe.
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So tell me what you think some of the consequences are, because obviously we still rely on China for most
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things. And so there's it's not that like we can just split, at least not very easily between kind
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of I guess it's not necessarily the East and the West, but kind of how we would understand it.
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What are the long term consequences of that? If we rely on China, not just for the goods and supplies
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that you buy in Target, but we're talking about like medical equipment, we're talking about medication.
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We rely on them for so much. What is it going to look like if we are bifurcating in this way for
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the United States? Well, short term, it means a lot of pain. We don't make a lot of the things for
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ourselves that we need to that we would consider critical technologies or critical goods, for
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example, like pharmaceuticals. So we're going to have to figure out pretty quickly, you know, do we want
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to be a democracy in decline, so to speak, or a global power in decline where we're sort of
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subservient to whatever the wishes are of China and their allies and partners because we don't feel
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like making those things for ourselves? Are we going to sort of take the bull by the horns and
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understand that, you know, the short term pain also is an opportunity for us to reclaim some of
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our manufacturing and economic sovereignty and reshore or nearshore, bring these plants, bring this
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production back to the US, back to the Western Hemisphere, or to Europe, where we, you know, have
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more traditional stable allies, and then say, okay, what can we bring back for ourselves? And then what
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do we need, you know, because we can't make the materials here, we don't have access to them,
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whatever, where do we need to facilitate better trade relationships in order to balance the scales? So
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if we do those things, we're going to be okay on an intermediate or long term basis. On the short term
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basis, though, we certainly have some major strategic vulnerabilities that we do need to be aware of,
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and that we do need to be addressing, you know, yesterday.
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It seems like there are people on both sides of the aisle that are opposed to the self-reliance
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in manufacturing that we're talking about, who just seem to be more interested in the interests of
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the CCP than they are in the United States. I mean, there are many ways that we could go through
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that it seems like the United States acquiesces to the CCP. And so I'm a little concerned that
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they're not going to take your advice, the people who are in charge in trying to re-up the manufacturing
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here and try to stave off or try to help some of the pain that you're talking about feeling. And so I
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just really, I wonder, like, if we don't take that route, if we don't decide to try to move
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towards self-reliance, and we do continue to rely on China for the things that we need to literally
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survive, what that will look like, I guess it'll just look like China solidifying its place as the
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global world power and us truly just doing whatever they want to do. Now, if there were a lot of
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conversations just a couple months ago, and as we just kind of mentioned about, I think it was Saudi
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Arabia starting to use the, what was it? Was it like purchasing oil or the purchases of oil in Saudi
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Arabia no longer being in the US currency, but in Chinese currency? And what that would mean for
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the US dollar? Am I getting that right? Yeah, so for a long time, you know, like I said earlier,
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the dollar was really the currency that global commodities are denominated in. And that's a
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function of us being the global reserve currency of the world, where pretty much every currency can
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be pegged against the dollar. And so the stability of our economy, the stability of our governance,
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the stability of, you know, our fiscal policy has always been sort of the benchmark, or at least for
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quite a long time has been the benchmark that all of the other global economies kind of measure
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themselves against and use as a supporter, a stabilizing mechanism. So what Saudi Arabia was
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proposing was to no longer just exclusively transact in dollars, they were, you know, the proposition was,
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well, if the dollar is not going to be stable, the US is no longer going to be sort of this great
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stabilizing force for trade and for, you know, global economics, then we need to consider utilizing
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other currencies as well, and maybe doing some of these deals and the currencies of other large
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countries. In this particular case, it was suggested that it would be a China and you'd have a PetroJuan.
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We haven't seen that happen yet, to my knowledge, but certainly plans are underway. And a lot of
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people are beginning to hedge their bets against the US and towards China. That carries some real risks
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for everybody. China in no way is a stable, stable economy or a stable actor. But the US also,
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we have to keep our house clean, and do everything we can to begin to reassure allies and reassure the
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world that we're not a basket case, and that we're going to be able to stabilize ourselves and make sure
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that we, you know, push through the next couple of years without causing any additional issues.
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I'm not super optimistic about that as much as I do love this country. I'm not sure if under our
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current leadership, we scream stable. Okay, speaking of the CCP, I want to get in a little bit more to
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what we had messaged about what is happening in North Dakota with something called the Fufeng Group.
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I'm really interested to hear what this is and to hear you just kind of dig into it. What the heck
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is this? Why should we care? How is this connected to what we're talking about?
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So at its most basic level, Fufeng Group is a Chinese producer of human food and animal feed
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ingredients. They do this via wet corn milling. So we have wet corn milling operations, numerous of
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them in the U.S. They make different products. You can make almost 30 different products just from
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corn. Starches, sweeteners, texturizers among them as well are things like lysine or phalene,
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diomethionine, threonine. These are all things that go into animal feed and help keep the animals
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healthy and increase their productivity, whether it's, you know, eggs or milk or their meat, you know,
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the quality of their meat. And so these are very kind of unknown but critical things. If you look on the
00:24:11.840
back of any bag of pet food, for example, you'll see almost all of those ingredients named and they're
00:24:17.740
all made from, you know, in some way, they're derived from corn processing. So Fufeng is a very large and
00:24:23.880
prominent and politically connected company in China. And they want to come to the U.S. and build a wet corn
00:24:30.920
mill in Grand Forks, North Dakota. And they started that process in the middle of 2020.
00:24:35.820
Just to make money? Or is there a bigger goal there?
00:24:40.720
I would not put a wet corn mill in Grand Forks, North Dakota if I had other options available to
00:24:46.200
me. There's a lot of reasons for that. Availability of the feedstock, which is corn,
00:24:51.340
water concerns as well. But there is something in Grand Forks that continues to seem to be a target
00:24:58.020
of interest for what you would call like subnational Chinese influence campaigns, which is trying to work
00:25:05.480
directly with local or city and state leaders without the involvement of the United States
00:25:11.080
government. So these subnational campaigns continue to target Grand Forks, North Dakota,
00:25:16.320
mainly because they have a little known but very important air force base there called Grand Forks
00:25:23.480
I'm already, I'm frightened. I'm frightened by this already. But okay, continue.
00:25:28.820
Yeah. So it's, like I said, from an economic standpoint, there are a lot of places that,
00:25:35.180
you know, Fufang allegedly considered in Nebraska or Iowa or Illinois, where it would make a lot more
00:25:40.840
sense to put a wet corn mill. But, you know, they downselected to Grand Forks and the city officials,
00:25:47.640
by and large, of Grand Forks, North Dakota are looking at this purely on its economic merits,
00:25:52.880
whatever they may or may not be. And, you know, really disclaiming or disregarding any sort of
00:25:58.920
potential risks to U.S. national security for a CCP-linked company, establishing itself, you know,
00:26:04.880
13, 14 miles from this air force base. There are bigger economic interests at work in the community
00:26:10.840
and in the state that you're seeing the state level push for this as well. It's somewhat complex,
00:26:17.020
and I certainly don't want to bore the listeners, but the Fufang project is sort of looked at as a
00:26:23.140
phase one to dramatically increasing natural gas transmission through the state, allowing the
00:26:29.640
state of North Dakota to drill more, you know, to frack and pull more oil out of the ground so that
00:26:35.180
they don't have, you know, they have caps on how much methane or natural gas they can flare off for
00:26:39.780
their oil production. So utilizing that and piping that natural gas allows them to drill for more oil.
00:26:46.040
And it also unlocks a much larger economic project, even in the Fufang one, which is the
00:26:51.160
Northern Plains nitrogen project in Grand Forks. So you're seeing a lot of these interests on the
00:26:57.940
economic and political side come together and then be, you know, harnessed and weaponized and
00:27:03.300
taken advantage of by China's subnational campaign apparatus and really getting American political and
00:27:11.220
economic officials to ultimately do the bidding of what the CCP wants, which is to put one of
00:27:16.800
their own companies right there next door to an Air Force base. But what do they plan to do with the
00:27:22.820
Air Force base? Well, the Air Force base, you know, there are aspects of the base that are not publicly
00:27:28.860
disclosed in terms of mission sets or things that they do there. There is certainly a role that the
00:27:35.800
base plays from a surveillance and reconnaissance standpoint. It's the primary home for the RQ4
00:27:42.160
Global Hawk Fleet that, you know, which is our long loiter surveillance drones that, and those are
00:27:47.620
publicly acknowledged, you know, not revealing anything that's not out there. So those are based
00:27:51.880
out of Grand Forks. It has a major mission set, both from a Space Force side and an Air Force side for
00:27:57.600
management and monitoring of things that go on in the skies above, whether, you know, a little bit
00:28:03.760
closer to Earth or in outer space. And so you're talking about something that's sending a lot of
00:28:08.600
data up and down and around the world to various U.S. installations and allies. And so being able to
00:28:15.620
co-locate a very low visibility monitoring or even signals capture capability on, you know, the
00:28:25.060
infrastructure of a cornmeal, for example, there's a lot of metal, there's a lot of towers, and there's a
00:28:31.040
lot of, you know, just physical things that would be very easy to sort of lose some low visibility
00:28:37.520
technology and be able to, you know, intercept or monitor some of those signals. So it's really not
00:28:45.480
a wise move. And given the push that the company has on for Grand Forks when they had much better
00:28:54.980
options available to them economically, it really kind of begins to show us how China and U.S. officials
00:29:03.120
sort of work hand in hand for their own interests, instead of the interests of the United States
00:29:09.320
citizens. Wow. Is this happening in other parts of the country? Because I've heard things like this
00:29:15.240
before that there are other Air Force bases where suspiciously Chinese groups, companies have decided
00:29:25.420
to build or they've bought land. I think in Texas, this has actually happened. Do you know of this
00:29:31.740
happening in other parts of the country? Yeah, Texas is the most famous. And, you know, God love Kyle
00:29:36.940
Bass and his team and people that he works with for really blowing the whistle on that and turning it
00:29:42.040
into a major national issue because it needed to be. You had a PLA, People's Liberation Army, which is
00:29:48.740
the military arm of the CCP in China. You had one of their former high-level officer in the PLA come to
00:29:56.480
the U.S., establish residency here and begin purchasing. I think by the end of it, he had accrued
00:30:02.280
almost 50,000 acres of land in Texas that was allegedly for a wind farm. But the property was directly in the
00:30:08.700
flight path of and very close to Laughlin Air Force Base in South Texas, which is where we do a lot of our,
00:30:15.220
you know, combat pilot training for the Air Force. So all of the major platforms that the U.S. Air Force
00:30:22.360
operates from a fighter jet standpoint, the F-35, the F-22, F-16, F-15, all of those have a presence there at Laughlin
00:30:29.100
because it's a major training installation. And so we had 50,000 acres of Chinese-owned land that was right, you know,
00:30:36.700
right adjacent to those properties. So again, a very clear and deliberate, you know, pattern of
00:30:44.540
purchases and commercial deals, you know, that are disguised to mask Chinese involvement or Chinese
00:30:50.400
interest close to our military installations. Wow, this is insane. I mean, there's so much that
00:30:55.940
goes on with the CCP and our government and even academia. And I remember being very disturbed when it
00:31:02.620
was announced at the end of February that the Biden DOJ is ending a national security initiative aimed
00:31:07.380
at countering China amid complaints about bias. There was this Trump-era program that I guess was
00:31:12.900
investigating Chinese espionage. And because, I don't know, there were some people who complained
00:31:19.380
that it was targeting people within the program or it was unfair or it was biased against Asian
00:31:28.640
Americans. The Biden administration ended it all. Of course, there is this story, which we won't get
00:31:35.360
into with you right now, but we've talked about before with the possible ties between the Biden
00:31:39.320
family and the CCP. And I don't really think this is just a Democrat issue. It also seems like this is
00:31:45.240
a Republican issue as well. And it's just amazing to me that we've allowed this to happen. Republicans
00:31:50.380
and Democrats have not just allowed our manufacturing to be outsourced to China, but we're actually
00:31:55.340
allowing Chinese groups that are, I'm sure, under the direction of the CCP to do things here on our
00:32:06.280
land that is threatening our national security. And I'm just wondering, like, what is being done
00:32:11.520
about it? We're talking about it, but what is actually being done about it? Like, do you have
00:32:14.860
any optimism there on any of the fronts that we're talking about, whether it comes to manufacturing or
00:32:19.260
whether it comes to actually protecting our national security and not just looking at economic
00:32:23.380
interest when a company from China comes in and says they want to build something or buy something?
00:32:28.600
Yeah, there is some really good work being done on that. Thank goodness. And, you know,
00:32:32.520
you touched on it, but really one of the most powerful quivers in the CCP, you know, arrows in
00:32:37.840
the CCP's quiver, rather, is this conflating of problems with the CCP as being a racial attack that's
00:32:46.760
directed against, you know, Chinese Americans or Chinese nationals.
00:32:49.780
Oh, yeah, they love that. And it couldn't be further from the truth. The CCP does not represent
00:32:57.220
the will of the Chinese people in total. It's a uniparty country. It's a, you know, I think Steve
00:33:03.860
Bannon has somewhat accurately described it as a transnational criminal organization that happens
00:33:09.040
to run, you know, first or second, depending on what metric you use, the first or second largest
00:33:14.280
economy in the world. And it's very mafia-like. There's, you know, there's 90 million members
00:33:19.580
of the Chinese Communist Party in a country that has 150 or 1.5 billion people. So very small
00:33:26.320
percentage, whereas in the U.S., you know, we're a two-party system.
00:33:31.400
It is a huge number of party members, you know, by proportion, much less than, you know,
00:33:36.960
what we have in America as far as registered Republicans or Democrats, but still a vastly
00:33:42.960
powerful political party and, you know, infrastructure at the top of that country.
00:33:48.020
But having issues with the Chinese Communist Party is like saying, well, because I have issues
00:33:53.360
with the Republican Party, you know, I hate all Americans. And that couldn't be further from
00:33:57.540
the truth. It's you have issues with the specific faction or group. But they utilize that very,
00:34:02.860
very effectively as a propaganda tool. And you see that pushed. I mean, there's billions of
00:34:07.380
dollars a year thrown into these influence operations that are part of the United, you
00:34:11.360
know, United Front Work Program, which is this huge web of government-directed or CCP-directed
00:34:17.620
propaganda operations worldwide. Many of them are operating in the U.S. very effectively
00:34:22.200
and influencing the highest levels of our government. So is it a Democrat problem? No. Is it a Republican
00:34:29.280
problem? No, it's an everybody problem, particularly when it comes to D.C. and particularly when it
00:34:33.820
comes to state and local politicians who are, you know, I think easily co-opted by, you know,
00:34:39.180
if I bring this project to town or if I just do this one favor, I just do this one thing,
00:34:43.460
that's going to help my career, help my constituents. It's very easy for us to lie to
00:34:47.780
ourselves and say we're doing the right thing when there's personal interest on the line.
00:34:53.100
You know, on the Republican side, you've got, you know, I can't think of anybody who's been
00:34:56.480
a bigger advocate over the last 20 to 25 years for the interests of the Chinese Communist Party
00:35:01.580
in the U.S. than Mitch McConnell and his wife, Elaine Chao. And I know those are big words.
00:35:05.940
Tell us a little bit more about that. Yeah. Explain that a little bit more.
00:35:09.620
Yeah. So Elaine Chao is the daughter of an individual who owns foremost, you know,
00:35:15.020
founded and owns foremost group. It's one of the more powerful shipping concerns. So they're
00:35:19.500
originally a Taiwanese family, but very, very closely linked to, in particular, Zhang Zemin,
00:35:26.060
former president of China, who's actually a rival faction to Xi Jinping. But so Elaine Chao's family
00:35:33.820
company foremost group is very, very, very large, very, very prominent. Her sister, Angela, was on
00:35:40.220
the board of the Bank of China, is very politically connected. So the McConnells have a very deep and
00:35:46.380
long history of being very soft on China, being very friendly towards Chinese business interests.
00:35:52.900
And that's on the Republican side. On the Democrat side, you know, pretty famously, you've got Dianne
00:35:57.360
Feinstein, who is probably the most co-opted politician in the U.S. from being a captured
00:36:06.100
interest of China. So we have to get our own house clean in a very real way and get serious about
00:36:12.000
understanding that, you know, our greed at the political level, our desire for good stories to
00:36:19.380
tell. All of that is really something that that is used against us very, very effectively by the CCP.
00:36:29.840
When it comes to commentating on this, it does seem like it is almost an exclusively conservative
00:36:37.460
position to point out the problems going on in China with China. It does seem like the left in
00:36:45.500
general. I'm sure that there are many exceptions to this, but in general, really don't want to talk
00:36:50.660
about the problems with the CCP like we saw with the Beijing Olympics. You had NBC and other pundits
00:36:57.560
on other liberal networks basically repeating CCP talking points about how amazing of a job the CCP did or
00:37:04.660
China did in hosting these Olympics and how it was so amazing when a member of
00:37:11.480
now I'm forgetting the Uyghur Muslim like lit the torch at the Olympics and NBC was like, wow, this is
00:37:20.660
such a monumental moment. They seem to be so much more susceptible to CCP propaganda on the left than
00:37:29.540
we are on the right. And it's strange because obviously I think that Putin is an awful dictator and
00:37:36.140
what he's doing in Ukraine is awful. Yes, but it's strange how quickly, especially people on the
00:37:44.020
left, but a lot of people in the United States immediately, corporations included, condemned
00:37:49.520
everything Russia is doing, put Ukrainian flags in their bio and are so quick to highlight the
00:37:57.100
corruption and the depravity that is going on in Russia, which that's fine. But when you ask them
00:38:01.960
about China or what's been going on in China, the kind of corruption and oppression and abuse,
00:38:06.100
even in Shanghai, we're not seeing a whole lot of commentary from the left on that. And I just think
00:38:11.660
that that is odd. I think that that's what is it like a intersectionality thing because Russia is
00:38:17.160
white. They feel like they can criticize them more than they can criticize China. I don't know,
00:38:21.680
but I actually think that it does. It does the United States in our national security and our
00:38:27.400
interests a disservice when only one half of the country is really willing to talk about
00:38:31.820
that. Yeah. Hey, Russia is bad, but look what's been happening over here under the reign of the
00:38:37.340
CCP. And I just happen to think that the CCP is a lot more powerful than Russia. And the strategies
00:38:43.620
that we're talking about them employing in the United States, they're also employing in many
00:38:48.680
different countries and poor countries around the world in much more draconian ways throughout
00:38:53.920
Africa and South America, truly colonizing them. I don't know. It's just strange to me. It's strange
00:38:58.580
to me that this does become a left-right issue when it comes to people giving their opinions about how
00:39:03.220
dangerous the CCP is. Why do you think that is? Why do you think it just tends to be conservatives
00:39:07.760
who are sounding the alarm about this? Well, you're talking about a bit of an unsquarable circle,
00:39:13.300
and it's an important thing to note. So you're right that by and large, the outcry on the left
00:39:19.080
against Russia has been incredibly loud and deservedly so. I mean, you're talking about one country has
00:39:27.280
invaded another country, and war by any measure, regardless of who the actors are involved,
00:39:34.160
is a really horrible, terrible thing. And so war has been visited on Ukraine by Russia.
00:39:38.560
And so that has been condemned loudly by a lot of people who are of the center-left or leftist
00:39:44.920
camps in the U.S. And you're right. At the same time, they do everything they can to fall all over
00:39:50.380
themselves to apologize and run air cover for things that the CCP does in China. And I think a
00:39:58.560
big part of it is that China is still actively a communist country. It has an authoritarian model,
00:40:07.000
and that strain of appreciation for a specific type of authoritarianism that runs through the cultural
00:40:13.720
left of the U.S. There's still very much a strong solidarity that a lot of leftist Americans have
00:40:20.800
and progressives have for Marxist-style authoritarianism. And Putin's particular type
00:40:28.280
of gangster capitalism and totalitarianism is probably more aligned a little bit with the way
00:40:35.780
we would think of historically rightist fascist movements in Europe, like Nazism or the fascist
00:40:43.660
party in Italy. And so there's this, I think, reflexive antagonism towards that from the left,
00:40:50.940
but almost a reflexive desire to defend the interests of the Chinese Communist Party.
00:40:57.240
And at the same time, the third rail of that that nobody wants to acknowledge is the very tight
00:41:02.160
interdependence and cooperation of Russia and China in working against the shared interests of Europe
00:41:10.500
and the U.S. So it is a worldview that's full of internal contradictions. I think it's a lot
00:41:17.080
easier just to say, I'm against corruption and totalitarianism in whatever form it appears in.
00:41:25.020
So if people are being subjugated and harmed and not the natural rights of man not being respected,
00:41:31.220
that life, liberty, and happiness, then we as Americans really do have an obligation to stand
00:41:36.360
against that as well. But like so many other things we've discussed here, and that's discussed
00:41:42.120
elsewhere, these internal contradictions exist largely so that our own political needs and economic
00:41:50.080
needs here in the U.S. can be satisfied in whatever way is most convenient.
00:41:54.320
Yeah, I think even on the most superficial level, people associate wrongly, I think, Russia with
00:42:03.440
Trump. They still believe that there was Russian collusion. And so because that was a narrative
00:42:08.000
that was spun for four years that Trump is in bed with Putin, I think that there are a lot of people
00:42:13.260
on the left who just that's really is as deep as it goes for them. They just think that, you know,
00:42:20.060
Russia is right wing. Russia is Trumpist. Trump likes Russia. Everyone on the right likes Russia,
00:42:24.920
which I think there are some weirdos on the right who think that they do like Putin's authoritarianism,
00:42:29.440
but I think that they are definitely the exception. So I think that's as far as it goes for some people.
00:42:34.900
And just to reiterate, what we're both saying is, yes, we can decry what's happening in Russia,
00:42:38.580
but look, like, let's not turn a blind eye to what's happening in China. And as you mentioned,
00:42:43.760
it's not the Chinese people. It is the CCP. I think there is no greater example of that than
00:42:48.500
what's happening in Shanghai right now. People are locked in their apartments. They're locked in
00:42:52.340
their homes for the past few weeks, many of them without food and water. We're talking about
00:42:56.220
children being separated from their parents if they test positive. If someone in someone's building
00:43:01.160
test positive for COVID, they all have to be quarantined for 14 days. These are people who are
00:43:05.900
stuck in isolation. There's reports of a large number of suicides and, of course, self-harm. And
00:43:13.400
there's been an attempt to protest, but the videos coming out of these police officers just beating
00:43:19.820
these people, taking children away from their parents, beating dogs, putting cats in bags. I mean,
00:43:25.320
it's just awful. And again, I don't think that it's getting the coverage that it should. I mean,
00:43:31.180
we are talking about a humanitarian crisis just as evil, just as wicked as what is happening in Ukraine.
00:43:38.020
And we should definitely be putting our attention and putting our eyes there. And yet the reaction,
00:43:43.900
unfortunately, for a lot of people here seems to just be disproportionate. Tell me, I guess,
00:43:49.160
just your thoughts on what's happening in Shanghai, but also how is that affecting everything that we're
00:43:53.600
talking about? How is that affecting supply chains? How is that also affecting, I guess, the need of
00:44:00.000
China to present itself, just like America needs to, to present itself as kind of a stable force that
00:44:05.600
this now, their side of the bifurcated world can really rely on, if that makes sense?
00:44:11.820
It does. It's something I've said from the beginning. I think a lot of people bought into
00:44:16.320
the whole narrative that Xi Jinping and the CCP, you know, put out of, you know, zero COVID. And
00:44:23.640
that's the, that's the goal. And some people, you know, bought into and promulgated the whole mandate
00:44:28.440
of heaven thing and the pestilence and disease is a sign that the mandate of heaven has, is no longer upon,
00:44:34.440
you know, you know, Xi Jinping. And it's really not about that. I've said from the beginning that
00:44:39.060
the targeting of Shenzhen, the targeting of Shanghai for these extremely repressive, and in the case of
00:44:48.200
Shanghai, violent and deadly lockdowns is not about COVID. It's not about the CCP having egg on its face as
00:44:57.380
COVID continues to spread. COVID is really no worse there than it has been all along. This is 100%
00:45:05.080
about the fact that in October, the, the party Congress is going to meet again as the, as they do
00:45:10.780
every five years. And Xi Jinping has done everything he can to clear all the roadblocks that, that exist,
00:45:16.660
you know, legislatively and internally in, in, in the Chinese Communist Party. And he's, you know,
00:45:22.580
going to make a run at being elected, you know, essentially president for life.
00:45:27.840
Well, so Shanghai is the base of power for, uh, Jiang Ximing, who is, you know, a former, uh,
00:45:33.660
former president of China, uh, who is himself, uh, you know, still a very, very, you know, that faction,
00:45:39.700
the Shanghai gang or the Ximing faction are still very, very, very prominent, uh, and powerful in China.
00:45:45.840
And increasingly over the last few years have been the target of, uh, corruption probes, uh, the
00:45:51.540
target of anti-businessman probes, uh, because that is the business class and the financial class
00:45:56.380
of, of China, uh, really is, you know, located in and around, uh, Shanghai. Historically, that's been
00:46:02.620
their base of power. And the reason for that is that Shanghai is, is absolutely one of, you know,
00:46:07.060
as a economic region, uh, one of the manufacturing powerhouses of the world. Uh, but it's also the
00:46:13.080
gateway for the Yangtze river, uh, which brings about, I think 20% of the goods in China transit
00:46:18.680
on the Yangtze river and come out at the port of Shanghai, uh, and all the various terminals there.
00:46:23.400
So Shanghai, and it's also a very powerful and important, uh, transshipment point for global
00:46:30.160
cargos, uh, that, you know, smaller ships that may run, you know, throughout Asia and, you know,
00:46:35.340
along the Chinese coastal waterways bring smaller volumes of cargo, and then they get on the huge
00:46:39.740
ships that can load at Shanghai and they come to the U S or go to Europe or,
00:46:43.080
whatever. So you're talking about a city that, you know, financially, uh, economically, uh,
00:46:47.700
from a manufacturing standpoint, geographically and logistically, uh, is really one of the,
00:46:52.640
the linchpin cities and regions of the world. And the whole thing is completely locked down,
00:46:57.340
uh, because the faction that comes from there, that's still, you know, that's its base of financial
00:47:02.620
and political power as a threat to Xi Jinping, uh, and to his faction in the October elections.
00:47:07.860
And, uh, it, it almost baffles, you know, or boggles the mind that, uh, we're seeing such a,
00:47:15.300
a overt, uh, exercise of authoritarian and dictatorial control, uh, over such a massive, uh, you know,
00:47:22.760
economic region and body of people. Uh, but that's exactly what we're seeing is this is,
00:47:27.160
this is an output of, uh, internal, you know, communist politics in China. It's, uh, it has a
00:47:34.220
devastating impact on not only on the residents there in a, in a very real humanitarian way,
00:47:38.560
uh, from a supply chain standpoint, it has a very large impact on the U S you're seeing an awful lot
00:47:43.960
of, uh, what is still being manufactured in China and in regions that aren't locked down can't get
00:47:48.980
out of China because the vessels are stuck there waiting to load or unload. Uh, so it's a, again,
00:47:54.200
just, just like so many other things that we've seen, we've got these massive bottlenecks happening
00:47:58.360
at one end of the Pacific ocean or the other, and, uh, has significant downstream impact to the U S
00:48:03.400
economy because we're not getting the things that we need, whether it's pharmaceuticals or
00:48:07.800
electronics or whatever it may be, because they're stuck in China.
00:48:15.000
If you were to predict how all this is going to unfold over the next year or two, when do things
00:48:22.200
get better? Do they get better? Do they get worse before they get better? Give us a best case and
00:48:27.980
worst case scenario. And then I've got one final question. Sure. Best case scenario. Uh,
00:48:33.400
we start to see this clear up, uh, sometime around the end of, uh, you know, sometime around
00:48:37.740
the end of quarter one, early quarter two, about this time, uh, next year, these are the kinds of
00:48:42.340
delays that take months, uh, to really clear out and, and to, you know, to normalize, uh, the tail
00:48:49.140
of this is, you know, potential disruption to Chinese and American companies that, uh, don't have the
00:48:53.860
cashflow and financial resources to weather this storm. Uh, so you'll see a lot of them go out of
00:48:58.380
business and, and, or get, you know, consolidated into or bought up, uh, by larger competitors that
00:49:03.840
have the ability and resources to do that. Uh, so that's the best case scenario is you see some,
00:49:09.380
uh, you see some companies go away that previously were here, but, but, you know, trade does continue
00:49:15.640
to somewhat flow. Uh, you also see a push towards reshoring, uh, and the U S gets, you know, fairly
00:49:21.120
serious about that as, as a, uh, as an economic and national security matter. The worst case scenario
00:49:27.340
is that we really learn nothing from this. And we put our heads in the sand and say, Hey, we'll just,
00:49:32.440
we'll muddle along the best we possibly can and everything eventually will get better. Uh,
00:49:37.360
but choosing not to act is, is in fact making a decision and, uh, it's the wrong decision.
00:49:43.580
My sense is, is that we will land somewhere in the middle of the two, probably more towards the,
00:49:49.780
the worst case scenario here. Uh, and that we will, you know, unfortunately see a mix of stagflation,
00:49:56.080
uh, leading eventually into recession in the U S here over the next year to two years. Uh,
00:50:01.760
we're already seeing demand destruction happen in the U S inventories are growing in the U S and
00:50:06.080
ordering from U S manufacturers into China is slowing down. Uh, so we're already starting to see
00:50:11.640
the beginning of that. We're going to see home prices begin to level off and possibly even fall here
00:50:16.200
in the next, you know, next few months where it's been pretty much red hot going all the way back
00:50:20.260
to the beginning of the Trump administration. Uh, so a lot of these things are negative signals for
00:50:24.380
the U S economy. Uh, but I do believe, uh, in America, I do believe in Americans more than I,
00:50:30.200
much more than I believe in our political class. Uh, but I do know some people that are doing,
00:50:34.460
you know, really heroic and amazing things at trying to mitigate and fight back against,
00:50:40.080
uh, CCP propaganda and influence and commercial programs in the U S. Uh, I know some people,
00:50:46.760
you know, commerce and treasury in the white house department of defense and all these other
00:50:50.420
agencies that do take this very seriously. And yeah. And, and so that's, uh, pain for the short
00:50:56.900
to intermediate time, but I think, uh, I hope, and I believe that this will be the time we do learn
00:51:02.900
our lesson and by 2030 and into 2035, you know, certainly my children and everybody else's children
00:51:09.320
who are elementary and junior high and high school age will, will, I think really begin to see the
00:51:14.020
fruits of that and have very, very good and prosperous adult lives as we come out of this
00:51:18.880
period. Wow. I hope so. That is very optimistic. I think that's what we're all thinking. There are so
00:51:24.940
many moms that listen to this podcast and that's what we're most worried about. What is this world?
00:51:29.540
What is this country going to look like by 2030 by 2035? And I hope that your vision is right. And I
00:51:37.440
hope that your optimism is right. We all want to feel that too. What can the average person do?
00:51:42.840
We don't work in logistics. We don't work in politics. We don't work in the white house.
00:51:46.560
What can the average person do to push back against some of the stuff that we're talking about
00:51:50.160
at the local level? And, and, and I have to really give, you know, a shout out as it were to a lot of
00:51:56.680
the amazing people in Grand Forks, North Dakota. They're, uh, with this Fufang project and its impact on the
00:52:02.540
community. Uh, they're really modeling exactly what, uh, I hope every community who runs into
00:52:10.760
these projects, you know, not all of them are going to be as, uh, you know, big on the order of
00:52:14.980
half a billion dollars as, as the Fufang project is in Grand Forks. But, you know, in ways large and
00:52:19.920
small, what we're seeing up there is, as a group of committed and, and resilient and dedicated
00:52:26.660
individuals put their time and money and effort into saying, no, this is wrong. Here's why it's wrong.
00:52:31.540
And they're using every, you know, legal and political and economic means at their disposal
00:52:35.840
to, to push back. And my goodness, that that's just inspiring. It's, it's really the first time.
00:52:41.480
It is working. It is working. I think, I think when we're going to, you know, we look back in a year
00:52:46.300
and that project is, is not going to have moved forward. It's, it's going to be stalled or completely
00:52:50.720
dead in the water. Um, and, and that's, that's 99.9% due to, uh, the efforts of the, you know,
00:52:58.160
of the citizens of Grand Forks that are organizing and rallying. And so in, in, in that way, what's
00:53:03.660
happening there is very much for, in my view, a model for what people can do in their, in their
00:53:08.860
local and county communities. And at the state level is, you know, identifying when these things
00:53:14.140
are, you know, it's sort of the old, if you see something, say something, you know, these sketchy
00:53:17.860
projects are everywhere. And if people just use their common sense and dig a little bit and use
00:53:22.500
the resources that are easily available. And the biggest thing is to not have fear and to ask the
00:53:27.840
questions that make city council members and mayors and economic development people uncomfortable,
00:53:32.660
put them on the spot and make them answer for the ways in which, you know, U S states and
00:53:37.400
communities have, have sort of become these, uh, vectors of Chinese influence against the United
00:53:44.540
Yes. So pay attention, ask questions, dig, organize, raise a respectful ruckus as we like
00:53:52.400
to say on this podcast, hold the people in charge accountable. It doesn't matter. Republican
00:53:56.900
Democrat, Republicans are very susceptible. I think to economic deals because we, you know,
00:54:04.000
I mean, we want a good economy. Of course, everyone wants more money circulating in your
00:54:08.420
economy and that's a good thing, but it's not a good economy at all costs. A good economy
00:54:13.720
has to, has to be defined by more than just more dollars, more than just a transaction. Um, and
00:54:21.520
so I am so encouraged by what you are seeing in North Dakota with that community there. And I do
00:54:27.280
encourage people to look more into it themselves and try to model any efforts, um, in your own
00:54:33.760
community after that. Well, Ross, thank you so much. You left us on a positive note last time,
00:54:38.560
even though we're talking about pretty complex and kind of sometimes depressing things. Um, I do
00:54:43.740
appreciate your optimistic outlook. Thank you so much. Um, how can people follow you and support you?
00:54:49.020
Uh, so really the two main ways are, uh, ones on Twitter, I'm a at man underscore integrated,
00:54:56.100
and then, uh, Fortis analysis.substack.com. The link's also in my Twitter bio and, uh, you know,
00:55:03.020
you'll occasionally see things, you know, reposted on zero hedge and, and a few other places. Uh,
00:55:07.680
epic times is another one that's been a really kind and, and, you know, generous platform as far as,
00:55:12.580
uh, allowing me to help speak on some of these things. So, uh, it's out there and, uh, you know,
00:55:17.780
certainly my, you know, my messages are, are widely open and, and a lot of people, you know,
00:55:22.680
in ways large and small, you know, take advantage of that opportunity. And I try to be as generous
00:55:26.540
as I can with, with my time and information. Certainly this isn't about money. It's just
00:55:30.580
trying to help people, you know, learn and live a little bit better, uh, you know, here as Americans.
00:55:35.060
Yeah. And I appreciate that so much. Thank you, Ross.