RFK Jr. The Defender - May 31, 2023


How To Fix the Economy with David Stockman


Episode Stats

Length

55 minutes

Words per Minute

144.99245

Word Count

8,006

Sentence Count

511

Hate Speech Sentences

18


Summary

David Stockman was a key architect of the Reagan administration in the late 1980s and early 1990s. He served as the budget director for President Reagan s administration, and was one of the key architects of his plan to reduce taxes, cut spending, and shrink the role of government. David Stockman is the author of three bestselling books: The Triumph of Politics, Why the Reagan Revolution Failed, The Great Deformation, The Corruption of Capitalism in America in 1985, and How to Bring It Back: A Nation on the Brink of Ruin, 2016, and The Undrainable Swamp in the Fantasy of MAGA, 2019. He is currently the publisher of Contra Corner, a place where the mainstream delusions and can't about the warfare state, the bailout state, and the beltway banditry are ripped, refuted and rebuked. He is also the editor-in-chief of the Contra Corner blog, and a regular contributor to the New York Times, The New Republic, The Weekly Standard, The Daily Beast, and other publications. He was a member of the anti-war movement in the 1960s and 70s, and served as an early supporter of John Kennedy s campaign in the presidential campaign in 1968 and later in the campaign of John F. Kennedy s 1968 presidential campaign. David Stockton was a Harvard Divinity School, a Harvard Law School graduate, and an early advocate of anti-Vietnam War and anti-colonialism in the Vietnam War movement. and was a founding partner at the Blackstone Group. in the 1970s and 1980s, when he was elected to the House of the Democratic National Committee. . and later served as a House of Representatives in the Reagan's campaign for President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s. The Reagan White House in the 1984 election campaign in 1984. He was the first black man to run for president in 1984, and later became a leading voice against the Democratic Party in the 1988 primary campaign in a primary challenge to John McCain in the primary against John Kennedy in 1988, which John McCain was running for re-election in the Democratic primary in 1988 and in 1992. What s more, he served as John McCain s running for President in the second place in 1988. against John McCain John Stockton s campaign a man who was an antiwar hero in the 1968 Democratic primary in 1968, and in the early days of Watergate, in the mid-term election, in 1968.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, I'm really looking forward to today's podcast.
00:00:03.000 My guest is really a titan, somebody who I spent a lot of my youth regarding as the kind of Darth Vader of cutting social programs and Environmental programs for the Reagan White House, but I now regard him, the more and more that I see him recently, it's very strange.
00:00:24.000 I remember reading, I think it was C.S. Lewis, who talked about people of one generation who are great enemies actually find themselves very aligned in the face of subsequent generations.
00:00:36.000 I feel that we have reached this kind of weird alignment where every time I hear David Stockman I'm a voice on TV or read an article about him.
00:00:46.000 I find myself nodding my head and he's talking about the same kind of things I'm talking about.
00:00:51.000 This outrageous debt that is destroying the middle class, that is threatening American democracy, the decline of America into a warfare state abroad, an imperium abroad, a surveillance state at home.
00:01:04.000 These huge gaps in wealth between the middle class and the rich that I think Democracy makes democracy unsustainable.
00:01:14.000 By every kind of political science that's been done in history, you cannot have a democracy when there are these huge aggregations of wealth above and then widespread poverty below.
00:01:26.000 I really am looking forward to this talk.
00:01:29.000 Let me give a little biography.
00:01:30.000 David Stockton was elected.
00:01:32.000 As a Michigan congressman in 1976 and joined the Reagan White House in 1981, serving as budget director.
00:01:39.000 He was one of the key architects of the Reagan Revolution plan to reduce taxes, cut spending, and shrink the role of government.
00:01:45.000 He joined Solomon Brothers in 1985 and later became one of the early partners of the Blackstone Group.
00:01:51.000 During nearly two decades at Blackstone and at a firm he founded Heartland Industrial Partners, Stockman was a private equity investor.
00:02:00.000 He is the author of three bestselling books, The Triumph of Politics, Why the Reagan Revolution Failed.
00:02:06.000 And that's 1986, The Great Deformation, The Corruption of Capitalism in America in 2013.
00:02:13.000 Trump, A Nation on the Brink of Ruin and How to Bring It Back, 2016.
00:02:19.000 And Pete Trump, the undrainable swamp in the fantasy of MAGA, 2019.
00:02:23.000 He is currently the publisher of a daily blog, Contra Corner, the place where the mainstream delusions and can't about the warfare state, the bailout state, the bubble finance and the beltway banditry are ripped, refuted and rebuked.
00:02:38.000 Born in Fort Hood, Texas, graduated from Michigan State University and attended the Harvard Divinity School and then went on to Washington as a congressional aide in 1970.
00:02:51.000 David, I can't tell you how happy I am to have this conversation.
00:02:56.000 Let me begin by just asking you about the Harvard Divinity School.
00:03:00.000 What was your career track trajectory at that point?
00:03:03.000 I'm glad you asked that question because it goes right to your observations.
00:03:08.000 That a lot happens in 50 years.
00:03:11.000 And I was in Harvard Divinity School in 1968 because I didn't want to get drafted to go to McNamara's War.
00:03:19.000 And if you were a prospective clergy, you got a deferment.
00:03:25.000 So I went to Harvard, got a job as a lived-in house man, and the family happened to be the Daniel Patrick Moynihan family.
00:03:34.000 So the next thing I knew, I was sort of connected to a political system.
00:03:38.000 Pat Moynihan had been part of your family during the 1960s, during the John Kennedy administration.
00:03:45.000 He got me a job on Capitol Hill.
00:03:47.000 Next thing I knew, I was running for Congress from my own district.
00:03:51.000 But the key thing was, I was at Harvard because I was anti-war.
00:03:56.000 The Vietnam War was just an awful, terrible, you know, stain on our history.
00:04:04.000 We were all proven right.
00:04:05.000 And the first campaign, that's why this discussion is so interesting.
00:04:10.000 The first campaign I ever worked in, the doorbells I ever rang, were for your father when he declared his candidacy in 1968 because the war had to stop.
00:04:21.000 And as a matter of fact, Despite all the tragedy that followed, the war did stop.
00:04:27.000 You know, Johnson didn't run.
00:04:29.000 And for a while, we had a little peace in the world.
00:04:33.000 You know, the neocons got control of the government during the Reagan administration.
00:04:38.000 They infiltrated the Democratic Party as well as the Republicans.
00:04:43.000 I call it the Uniparty.
00:04:45.000 And, you know, we have been off to the races as a global hegemon with these forever wars, decade after decade, And we have accomplished nothing except to alienate a good part of the world.
00:05:01.000 Unfortunately, kill and name hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people.
00:05:07.000 And we really have to stop this.
00:05:09.000 And that's why I think the issue of 2024, and there are a lot of issues, But the issue of 2024 is we have to stop the war machine.
00:05:21.000 And that's so ironic because that was our slogan back in 1968.
00:05:26.000 And the war machine is still here.
00:05:29.000 In fact, it's bigger.
00:05:30.000 And more powerful than ever before.
00:05:33.000 I've made the point that if you add up everything that we spend on defense, and that's the defense budget proper, International Affairs and all of the AID and State Department National Endowment for Democracy and all of the broadcasting operations.
00:05:52.000 And you also add to that the cost of veterans, the VA, because that's a deferred cost of war.
00:05:58.000 We have millions of men in America that were injured, maimed, disabled for life that we have to support.
00:06:06.000 They shouldn't have been in any of those wars, obviously, but that's More than $300 billion just for veterans.
00:06:14.000 So when you add all that up, it's $1.3 trillion going into this vast war machine.
00:06:21.000 And we really have to stop it because if we don't get...
00:06:25.000 I just want to make it clear that's an annual cost.
00:06:29.000 Yep, absolutely.
00:06:30.000 That's the annual cost.
00:06:32.000 And it's bigger than Social Security.
00:06:35.000 It's two or three times interest payments at the present.
00:06:40.000 It dwarfs everything else.
00:06:42.000 But there's something worse than the pure size or number.
00:06:46.000 And that is that both parties have become addicted to what I call the warfare state.
00:06:52.000 To the forever wars.
00:06:54.000 And so we now have a bipartisan consensus in favor of every kind of really unbelievable mayhem that comes along as a result of the Washington deep state, if you want to call it that, finding another crusade, as John Quincy Adams said, Another monster to destroy abroad.
00:07:16.000 Ukraine is crazy.
00:07:19.000 What are we doing there?
00:07:21.000 Funding, promoting, instigating this slaughter when it's very clear there's a solution here.
00:07:28.000 Ukraine was never a country built to last.
00:07:31.000 It's divided down the middle.
00:07:33.000 It's far worse than red state, blue state between the Russian-speaking provinces in the east and south and the nationalists in the west and center.
00:07:42.000 So the solution would be a peace conference, partition the country, and move along and stop the mayhem.
00:07:51.000 The war machine wants a war.
00:07:53.000 The neocons have so demonized Putin that they can't see straight.
00:07:58.000 And so now we have a government in Washington that should be attending to our domestic affairs, that should be a little concerned about $32 trillion of debt, that should be concerned about this massive disproportion of wealth that has been created as a result of all this money printing.
00:08:19.000 And borrowing that's occurred in the last two or three decades.
00:08:22.000 And yet, the big thing they like to do, you know, is get in the planes and go on their junkets And pretend, you know, that there's some kind of latter-day tribunes taking care of the empire around the globe.
00:08:37.000 This is the big thing.
00:08:38.000 This is the hard matter.
00:08:40.000 Until we break the lock of the warfare state, all these other things that we might actually even disagree about will never be addressed in any productive or proper way.
00:08:52.000 I want to point out a couple of things before I move on to the next question, which is that the people of Donbass, who are predominantly ethnic Russians, actually voted to join Russia prior to the war.
00:09:05.000 And the Russians said, no, we don't want you.
00:09:08.000 We want Ukraine to maintain its integrity as a nation and just, you know, let's make that part of the Donbass region an autonomous region so they can maintain their language so they won't be murdered, killed by government policies.
00:09:22.000 But leave them part of Ukraine.
00:09:24.000 That was the Minsk Accords, and we could have settled it then with no bloodshed.
00:09:31.000 The Russians wanted to do it.
00:09:33.000 This was an agreement that was worked out by France, by Germany.
00:09:37.000 And actually, when Zelensky ran in 2019, he ran on a peace platform and he got 70% of the vote.
00:09:46.000 And his promise was that he would ratify, sign and ratify the Minsk Accords.
00:09:50.000 And something happened when he got in there.
00:09:54.000 He got surrounded by White House neocons and ultranationalists within Ukraine, and something made him change his mind.
00:10:03.000 Yes, I think on that, it's a very important point, and I think you can go right to the heart of it.
00:10:08.000 It was the Azov Battalion, the sort of neo-Nazi forces that became part of the government in 2014, and they basically said to Zelensky, Who was born and lived in the Russian-speaking part of Ukraine, the Donbass.
00:10:26.000 His language is Russian.
00:10:27.000 He's a Russian speaker.
00:10:28.000 And you know, he was famous because he had this great comedy show on Ukrainian TV, but do you know it was in Russian?
00:10:35.000 It had to be translated into Ukraine.
00:10:38.000 That's where he came from.
00:10:40.000 But he was told by the ultra-nationalists, the hardcore, that if you even think about making peace with Russia, you won't live to tell about it.
00:10:50.000 And that's truly what happened.
00:10:52.000 So we need to understand that this is a civil war.
00:10:57.000 You know what Ukraine means in Russian?
00:11:01.000 It means borderlands.
00:11:03.000 The whole territory has been the borderland of Russia for centuries and centuries.
00:11:09.000 Much of it was part of the Russian Empire or it was a vassal state.
00:11:14.000 What we're fighting for today, allegedly, according to Washington, is to protect borders that actually didn't exist until 1922 when they were created by Lenin.
00:11:27.000 Out of administrative convenience from the parts and pieces of Tsarist Russia that he had taken control of.
00:11:35.000 And a little more was added by Stalin during World War II from Poland and Romania.
00:11:41.000 And then finally, in 1954, when Khrushchev won the struggle for succession, he gave Crimea to the Ukrainians.
00:11:50.000 It was Russian-speaking.
00:11:51.000 It had been purchased by Catherine the Great in 1783, it was purely Russian, but as a reward to his colleagues for helping, you know, his Ukrainian colleagues for helping succeed Stalin, it was a bloody struggle he gave them Ukraine.
00:12:07.000 So we're today fighting a war, a devastating war with the other major Nuclear-armed power in the world.
00:12:17.000 We're destroying a country.
00:12:19.000 We're slaughtering a population so that we can ratify the work of bloody tyrants, Lenin, Stalin, and Khrushchev, that made the current borders of Ukraine, but they have nothing to do With the real history of population.
00:12:38.000 So if we could just see through that, and as you say, go back to 2014.
00:12:44.000 The coup in Kiev was funded by the United States Department of State, the National Endowment for Democracy.
00:12:52.000 The CIA, we overthrew the duly and appropriately elected government.
00:12:58.000 We didn't like the president because he was Russian friendly.
00:13:03.000 Well, it wasn't our business to decide who and how the Ukraine is going to be governed on the border By the way, let me just add to what you're saying.
00:13:18.000 We put $5 billion through the National Endowment for Democracy and through USAID and all these other CIA front groups into those overthrowing Yanukova.
00:13:31.000 So in 2014, it was, as you say, it was the democratically elected government.
00:13:37.000 We, you know, were supposed to represent democracy, actually paid to overthrow that government in 2014.
00:13:45.000 Yes, and you know, I think this goes to a really important point why this is such a tragedy and such a crime, really.
00:13:54.000 And that is, if you look at the last election, which Yakunovic was elected, you look at that electoral map and you would be astounded.
00:14:05.000 The East and South voted 90 to 10, For the Russian-speaking, pro-Russian-speaking candidate.
00:14:14.000 The center and west, you know, historic Ukraine, Voted 90 to 10 for the nationalist candidate.
00:14:23.000 The country was divided right down the middle in ways that you rarely see, and it wasn't an aberration.
00:14:30.000 The same thing happened in several earlier elections.
00:14:33.000 So what I say is the Ukrainian people have already voted for partition.
00:14:39.000 They have said time and time again, we don't necessarily all want to be part of the same state, of the same nation.
00:14:48.000 And why in the world we can't see that and stop the fighting, stop the slaughter, and begin a peace process that could resolve this very quickly is really very hard to understand, except to realize that Washington is so populated with people who think that we need to be running every square inch of the earth And if it doesn't,
00:15:14.000 you know, if it's not run according to Washington specifications, then we need to intervene.
00:15:21.000 And that is so wrong.
00:15:23.000 It is really the opposite of that famous statement that I just quoted from John Quincy Adams that we mean to have peace with all nations.
00:15:34.000 And not to travel the earth seeking monsters to destroy.
00:15:39.000 And unfortunately, that's what our foreign policy has become in modern times.
00:15:45.000 Well, you know, one of the ironies, and I'm taking just from what you said, is that when we were fighting the Kosovo War, we were actually on the side of partitioning.
00:15:57.000 Right, exactly.
00:15:58.000 Two populations that had been kind of artificially loaded into one country through arbitrary drawn borderlines who couldn't get along with each other, who were having trouble getting along.
00:16:10.000 And at that point, we took the position and we were militarily involved.
00:16:15.000 Actually, we bombed Serbia for, I think, 82 straight days.
00:16:21.000 It's part of a campaign to sever Kosovo from the Serbian Republic.
00:16:27.000 But the bigger issue is there have been a lot of partitions in the world, both in older times and more recent times, that proved beneficial to the populations involved.
00:16:38.000 It turned out that Czechoslovakia was an artificial state created by Wilson They eventually parted ways.
00:16:46.000 There are two states there now.
00:16:47.000 They worked just fine.
00:16:49.000 The people were happy.
00:16:50.000 Yugoslavia was composed of eight or nine peoples and nations historically that didn't necessarily want to be together.
00:16:57.000 They were put together by Tito through, you know, the Iron Fist.
00:17:01.000 That has all now been dissolved.
00:17:04.000 It was kind of rough and tumble getting there.
00:17:06.000 But it's a lot better off than it was under one bloody tyrant.
00:17:10.000 So what's wrong with partition?
00:17:13.000 If there is good and substantial reason and historic basis for it, there clearly is here.
00:17:20.000 The war was started by Kiev in 2014 when it decided that the breakaway republics in the east that didn't want to be part of the new government Part of the CIA-sponsored coup had to be punished for their attempts to break away.
00:17:39.000 That's when the war started.
00:17:40.000 And for seven or eight years prior to the current war, Kiev, you know, murdered something like 14,000 people in the Donbass area.
00:17:51.000 And in areas that we're trying to break away.
00:17:54.000 So besides that, and I'm not making any brief for Putin, but he said as early as 2007, do not bring NATO to my doorstep.
00:18:05.000 And this is so interesting.
00:18:06.000 We're talking to you about it.
00:18:07.000 Because to him, putting NATO in the Ukraine and U.S. missile bases within minutes of Moscow was really not much different than what your uncle faced in 1962 when Khrushchev put missiles in Cuba 90 miles away.
00:18:27.000 And we said, this shall not stand.
00:18:29.000 Eventually, it was resolved peacefully.
00:18:32.000 But the principle is the same.
00:18:35.000 And why we expanded NATO to all these former Warsaw Pact nations when we had promised Gorbachev at the time of things breaking up and 1991, that we wouldn't move an inch to the east in return for his acquiescence and the unification of Germany.
00:18:54.000 All of these things are so well known, and yet you have a population of elected officials and permanent government apparatchiks, as I call them in Washington, who are so committed to the global hegemony,
00:19:10.000 to these forever wars, to The neocon creed that here we are with this sheer madness that you have a democratic president and a democratic majority.
00:19:26.000 That insists must be carried out to the last Ukrainian, which is so ironic, because when I started back in 1968, the Democratic Party was the Peastic Party.
00:19:38.000 You know, that's where all the doves were that we looked to in the battle, the fight on Vietnam.
00:19:45.000 And somehow, over the last five decades, over the last half century, it's turned upside down and switched.
00:19:52.000 And frankly, I think there are more doves in the Republican Party today, not many, but, you know, Rand Paul types.
00:20:00.000 There are more today than in the Democrat Party.
00:20:03.000 And that's really part of what has to change and change in a big way.
00:20:09.000 Yeah, and I agree with you.
00:20:10.000 I think particularly in the rank and file Republicans and the independents, that kind of populist wing is very, very anti-war, the same way that, you know, we were in the 1960s.
00:20:21.000 It's really interesting.
00:20:22.000 But, you know, the rest of the population has succumbed to this kind of comic book narrative that the neocons are so adept at generalizing.
00:20:35.000 We've got to go in there and fix it, like they did in Iraq.
00:20:40.000 They hypnotize people with it, and nobody is looking at the facts.
00:20:45.000 I'll just mention this.
00:20:47.000 As you mentioned, my uncle, his most important speech as president, the 60th anniversary is coming up on June 10th of the American University speech, which was the speech where he turned our nation around on the nuclear test ban treaty and had the first atmospheric test You know, the nuclear age.
00:21:07.000 What he did in that speech is the exact thing that you're doing right now is it was a talk to the American people asking them to put themselves in the shoes of the Russians.
00:21:18.000 And he said, you cannot have peace if you're not able to put yourself in the shoes of your adversary.
00:21:25.000 And he reminded people of something that we never heard.
00:21:28.000 You know, I grew up watching Vic Morrow on combat and, you know, how Americans, we Americans didn't realize that the war was really won by the Russians.
00:21:41.000 And that the Russians made this incredible sacrifice to beat Hitler, including 23 million, you know, you hear numbers up to 70 million Russians were killed, but 23 million people kind of agree on.
00:21:54.000 But it's one out of every seven Russians, 13% of their population died.
00:22:00.000 A third of the country was reduced to rubble.
00:22:02.000 And this is when my uncle said, you have to put yourself in their position and see how they view the world.
00:22:07.000 He said, it's like if all of our country was reduced to rubble from the East Coast to Chicago.
00:22:14.000 And how would we feel about hostile forces lining up on our border then?
00:22:23.000 It developed this great friendship with Khrushchev and they We're corresponding with each other secretly through a Soviet spy, a KGB, GRU spy called Georgi Bolsheko, who used to come to our house and he would hand letters to try to unrun the CIA, unrun the State Department.
00:22:40.000 26 letters of my uncle and Khrushchev.
00:22:43.000 And they found themselves that they were both in the same position.
00:22:48.000 They were both men who had fought in World War II. Khrushchev had seen this incredible brutality at Stalingrad, probably the worst battle, arguably the worst battle in history.
00:22:58.000 And my uncle had been lost and declared dead and seen the brutality of war.
00:23:03.000 And both of them had an abhorrence for war.
00:23:05.000 But they were surrounded by intelligence apparatus and military brass who saw the war not only as inevitable, but, you know, desirable.
00:23:16.000 Right.
00:23:17.000 They knew they had to talk to each other or the whole place was going to be burned down the whole world.
00:23:23.000 And that's why my uncle and Grushchev privately agreed to install the hotlines because they didn't trust their own people because they were surrounded.
00:23:31.000 And one of the things I want to ask you about, because you had a front row of this, because a lot of those neocons and a lot of the philosophy came out of the Reagan White House.
00:23:41.000 And then, you know, they really blew up during George W. Bush's administration.
00:23:46.000 But there was that kind of Zbigniew Brzezinski and the Carter White House was probably the granddaddy of the neocons, arguably.
00:23:54.000 And he actually says in his book, Our strategy should be to draw the Russians into wars in Afghanistan and other places where we can get other people to fight the war and we'll supply them, and that's how we'll bring down Russia.
00:24:10.000 That's been their blueprint from the beginning, and they just rolled it out, the same people.
00:24:16.000 How did you watch that evolution?
00:24:19.000 I'm glad you brought this up, and I want to go back to where you started, because I truly think That John Kennedy's American University speech is one of the greatest speeches, most inspiring speeches by any president at any time, and that people can easily find it on the internet today.
00:24:39.000 They should Click on and listen to it because it was powerful and it was moving and potent.
00:24:47.000 Now, what's interesting about that is that the other great speech given right before that was by Eisenhower, his farewell address.
00:24:57.000 And just as John Kennedy tried to open the door to negotiations and reducing the tensions of the Cold War in the arms race, Eisenhower had also made enormous strides in befriending Khrushchev, and they had several summits which were productive.
00:25:18.000 And as you know, the last summit in the spring of 1960 was going to be the breakthrough.
00:25:24.000 It really would have ended the arms race And on the eve of that summit, Alan Dulles and the CIA sent the U-2 spy planes right over Russia, Gary Powers.
00:25:37.000 It's a very famous episode.
00:25:39.000 They shot down the spy plane, and that was the end of the summit.
00:25:43.000 You know, it was the CIA. So your uncle said after the Bay of Pigs he'd like to smash the CIA into a thousand pieces.
00:25:54.000 And ironically, he was right.
00:25:57.000 And the same thing actually happened to Eisenhower.
00:26:00.000 Now, the key reason I'm bringing this up Is that if you look at 1961, Eisenhower was the president.
00:26:08.000 He was the greatest general we ever had in the White House.
00:26:11.000 And he said, the defense budget we have today is more than enough and we should be alert to the danger that they'll try to make it bigger.
00:26:20.000 Now, I bring this up because in today's dollars, that defense budget that Eisenhower said was...
00:26:26.000 Adequate was $400 billion.
00:26:29.000 Our defense budget in the same purchasing power dollars today is $800 billion going on $900 billion.
00:26:36.000 In 1961, when Eisenhower said our defenses are adequate, the triad nuclear deterrent that we had You know, we were up against Russia at the peak of its industrial might.
00:26:53.000 You know, they had 2,000 warheads.
00:26:55.000 They had 7,000 aircraft.
00:26:59.000 They had 60,000 tanks and on and on.
00:27:02.000 Four million men under arms.
00:27:04.000 But Eisenhower said 400 billion is enough even then.
00:27:09.000 Well, where are we today?
00:27:10.000 The Soviet Union has disappeared from the pages of history.
00:27:14.000 There is no big industrial power that's even threatening our homeland security.
00:27:20.000 And safety, and certainly it's not China, because China is one great big Ponzi scheme that couldn't survive without the export markets, you know, without the 4000 Walmarts in America.
00:27:33.000 The Chinese Communists would be in a hard way to stay in power as well.
00:27:38.000 So why do we have double the defense budget today that Eisenhower said was adequate when we had a real enemy and when he was in the middle of trying to open the door?
00:27:50.000 Now, the last point on your question, what was going on in 1980, is really also highly relevant to where we are today.
00:27:58.000 The case that the neocons were making in 1980, and you probably remember it, is that we were in danger of the Soviet Union developing a nuclear first strike capability, and that it would only be a matter of time, and they would say, you know, game over, surrender.
00:28:19.000 Well, that was complete baloney.
00:28:21.000 There was never a Soviet first strike, either intention or capacity.
00:28:27.000 But here's the thing.
00:28:28.000 They were able to use that fear to take the defense budget that we got handed to us from Jimmy Carter at $140 billion and to take it to $350 billion over a four or five year period.
00:28:42.000 And in today's dollars, it's a lot more than that.
00:28:45.000 What did they buy?
00:28:46.000 Here's the key thing.
00:28:47.000 What did they buy with that doubling, almost tripling of the defense budget?
00:28:52.000 They didn't buy anything that had to do with the so-called first strike threat from Russia because of the Soviet Union.
00:29:00.000 There wasn't one.
00:29:01.000 What they did was create a vast Armada of conventional forces, the 600-ship Navy, thousands of new main battle tanks, thousands of new aircraft, fixed rotary, all kinds of sea lift, airlift capacity, all kinds of missile capability, cruise missile capability.
00:29:24.000 What was all this used for?
00:29:26.000 It was used for wars of invasion and occupation.
00:29:31.000 In the Middle East it's being used in the Ukraine today.
00:29:34.000 In other words, you know, these forever wars We're an accidental outcome of a massive conventional buildup that was unnecessary that happened during the 1980s.
00:29:48.000 Because I'm pretty sure of this, that had not that huge buildup happened under the false guise, threat of a Soviet first strike capacity, it would have been very hard to have the first Gulf War, the second Gulf War, to take...
00:30:07.000 Take the battle to Libya and to Yemen and to all the other places in the world.
00:30:12.000 If presidents had to go to the Congress and ask for huge appropriations, To buy the military capability.
00:30:19.000 They already had it.
00:30:21.000 This is another important part of history that I think is important to lay out because it's why we're in the mess we are today.
00:30:30.000 If we didn't have all these stockpiles of weapons that really came out of that conventional force buildup, we wouldn't be running a genocide, which is really what it is in the Ukraine today.
00:30:44.000 I think it's a key part of understanding what has to change in a very big way.
00:30:49.000 We don't need that conventional force.
00:30:52.000 We need a triad deterrent, nuclear deterrent.
00:30:56.000 We have it.
00:30:57.000 It's bought and paid for.
00:30:59.000 It's relatively cheap.
00:31:00.000 We could get by with a $200 billion to $300 billion defense budget, not an $800 billion one.
00:31:06.000 We would then not be...
00:31:08.000 We could defend the homeland.
00:31:09.000 No one's going to penetrate the Atlantic and the Pacific with a homeland defense.
00:31:14.000 All of that would be possible.
00:31:16.000 And yet, the military-industrial intelligence complex, the neocons, and all of the...
00:31:24.000 I don't want to belabor this, but there's so much loose change in this massive $900 billion defense budget that it's basically like what I call a self-licking ice cream cone.
00:31:36.000 It pays for itself.
00:31:38.000 There is so much money that goes to all these think tanks, all of these NGOs, all of these operations that spend their life coming up with reasons why we should be in the Ukraine or Why liberating Libya was a good idea or why Yemen makes a difference, when none of this is true, but it all comes out of this massive budget.
00:32:02.000 The most dangerous thing in the world is the $900 billion defense budget, to tell you the truth, because there's so much money, so many arms contracts built into that, that it's almost self-perpetuating, very difficult to stop.
00:32:18.000 And you have the media involvement, too.
00:32:20.000 And, you know, you go on CNN and the people you're seeing who are urging us to, you know, increase our commitment to Ukraine are all retired generals who they don't tell you, but they're working for those Lockheed and the military contractors and those think tanks.
00:32:37.000 And their whole function is to try to keep us at this constant state of war.
00:32:41.000 And, you know, you talked about the expenditures.
00:32:44.000 We now spend...
00:32:46.000 40% of the world's budget, the entire global budget for military is coming from the United States.
00:32:54.000 We spend more than the next 10 top nations, including Russia and China combined, Right.
00:33:32.000 I talk often about Paul Kennedy, who's a Yale professor, who wrote this book, this analysis of the last 500 years of how empires rise and fall.
00:33:44.000 And every single empire in that book, every single empire in the last 500 years of history, half a millennium, the death knell has come from overextending its military abroad, and we've just followed that formula.
00:33:58.000 I remember at the end of the Cold War, disentangling, Right.
00:34:03.000 That we were promised a peace dividend.
00:34:06.000 Right.
00:34:06.000 That peace dividend was supposed to cut our budget, I think it was something like $600 billion then.
00:34:12.000 Right.
00:34:13.000 And that they were going to cut it to $200 billion.
00:34:15.000 That's what people were talking about.
00:34:18.000 And instead, you know, it's doubled, essentially.
00:34:21.000 It's gone up to, as you say, you know, if you add in everything, it's 1.3.
00:34:25.000 Homeland Security is 1.3.
00:34:28.000 And we wouldn't need all this Homeland Security if we weren't stirring up trouble in the world.
00:34:33.000 The reason we have to go through x-ray machines at the airport is because, you know, the military is not protecting us.
00:34:40.000 It's actually making it more dangerous to live in this country.
00:34:44.000 I would just add that they almost had a peace dividend for a few years.
00:34:49.000 And then, unfortunately, the Clinton administration got taken in by this Republican drum beating about being soft on defense.
00:34:59.000 And they came up with this stupid idea, really bad, and this is important to get into the mix here, of expanding NATO to include the former Warsaw Pact nations and then even some of the republics.
00:35:14.000 That spun out of the Soviet Union itself.
00:35:17.000 And at the time, and this was quite clearly, even then, there was a public debate in the New York Times.
00:35:25.000 George Kennan, the father of the containment doctrine, the intellectual, really, who helped create the whole Cold War containment doctrine, and that led to NATO, and that led to the Marshall Plan and all the others.
00:35:42.000 So this is a folly.
00:35:44.000 This is a wrong thing to do.
00:35:47.000 You're simply going to stir up the bear and sooner or later, the Russians will react.
00:35:55.000 Now, going back to your point earlier, you know, Russia has a case.
00:36:00.000 I mean, they never should have invaded this country.
00:36:02.000 I agree with that.
00:36:04.000 But they have a case that in the last two centuries, they've been invaded by the West three times.
00:36:10.000 Napoleon came in.
00:36:12.000 They were invaded by the Germans in World War I, decimated.
00:36:16.000 They were invaded in World War II in a horrible way and they stopped the invasion.
00:36:23.000 At the Battle of Stalingrad.
00:36:26.000 But after that kind of history, they have a different mentality.
00:36:30.000 And when we said we're bringing NATO to their doorstep, Okay, to Lithuania, to Poland, that we were going to put missiles in NATO in the Ukraine and in Georgia, which is a former republic of the Soviet Union.
00:36:46.000 It became too much.
00:36:47.000 And since 2007 at these international security conferences, Putin had been saying over and over again, that's a red line.
00:36:56.000 You can't put missiles on my doorstep in the Ukraine or in other parts of my neighborhood.
00:37:03.000 And they didn't listen.
00:37:05.000 And finally, there was a negotiation in December 2021.
00:37:10.000 One, it could have led to a breakthrough and an agreement to keep NATO out of Ukraine and some kind of autonomy under Minsk for the eastern and southern provinces.
00:37:21.000 But it was all vetoed, shot down and totally kicked away by the neocons.
00:37:28.000 This happened in a Democrat administration.
00:37:30.000 This happened on Biden's watch.
00:37:33.000 This never should have happened.
00:37:35.000 It shouldn't have happened in any administration, but certainly it shouldn't have happened in the former Peace Party that is part of the War Party now.
00:37:46.000 So the war party is the problem.
00:37:47.000 That's where we started our conversation today.
00:37:51.000 And we've got to do something to break it up, to break it up.
00:37:55.000 Let me add a couple of points.
00:37:57.000 My uncle would have invaded Cuba if they wouldn't, if they didn't remove those missiles.
00:38:02.000 And he got them to remove those missiles in a secret deal with my father and Ambassador Tobren and Right.
00:38:08.000 Where we removed our Jupiter missiles from Turkey, because Khrushchev had gone into Cuba.
00:38:16.000 Yeah.
00:38:16.000 Said, well, you got them at my doorstep.
00:38:18.000 I need to have them at your doorstep.
00:38:20.000 Otherwise, you got the, you know, you got the first strike capability that will destroy us.
00:38:25.000 And so...
00:38:26.000 You know, but can I just throw something in there if I could, because I've sort of studied this too, and it's very interesting that we're into it.
00:38:32.000 When he was suddenly confronted with this crisis, And then was told that Khrushchev was making the point, you got Jupiter missiles in Turkey.
00:38:42.000 They weren't even supposed to be there.
00:38:47.000 He famously said, there's always some bastard that doesn't get the word.
00:38:52.000 And the point was, time and time again, at all these inflection points in history, when people were trying to do the right thing, President Kennedy, President Eisenhower, Jimmy Carter with the arms control agreements.
00:39:08.000 Time after time, you know, they're undermined.
00:39:11.000 I mean, I have no great beef for Donald Trump, but he was actually trying to roll back the empire a little bit, and he tried to get out of Syria.
00:39:20.000 They said, no way, Jose!
00:39:21.000 He tried to, you know, defuse the tensions in Korea and his own people shot him down.
00:39:28.000 So we're up against something that's pretty insidious, pretty powerful, pretty deeply entrenched.
00:39:34.000 That's why the deep state isn't a bad metaphor, even if it's exaggerated.
00:39:40.000 And somehow its lock on the two political parties has to be broken if we're ever going to move into a Yeah, and let me just finish that thought about, you know, putting yourself in the adversary's shoes.
00:39:57.000 In exchange for moving, for reunifying Germany and moving out 400,000 German troops, I mean, Russian troops who were there and moving in NATO, imagine that, you know, what a blow to the pride and to the national security of the Soviets.
00:40:14.000 They got us the promise we would move one inch to the east.
00:40:17.000 We then moved a thousand miles to the east.
00:40:20.000 We took in 14 of their countries.
00:40:22.000 George Kennan and said, why are you treating them like an enemy?
00:40:24.000 They lost the Cold War.
00:40:26.000 The people who are running it now are the people who are on our side during the Cold War.
00:40:31.000 We should be treating them like we treat the Marshall Plan.
00:40:34.000 You know, we should be helping them transition to democracy and making them part of the brotherhood and sisterhood of Europe.
00:40:41.000 Why are we treating them as enemies?
00:40:43.000 If you treat them as enemies, that's what Kenneth said, it's got to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.
00:40:48.000 They're going to turn eventually.
00:40:49.000 They're going to see this unyielding hostility.
00:40:53.000 They're going to be resentful because they did everything we asked them to do.
00:40:56.000 They dismantled the empire.
00:41:02.000 We put Aegis missile systems in Poland and in Romania, and those missiles can carry Tomahawk missiles, which are nuclear, and Ukraine is 400 miles from Moscow.
00:41:17.000 We have a rule in our hemisphere called the Monroe Doctrine that says nobody can put anything anywhere near us.
00:41:24.000 Including Patagonia.
00:41:27.000 Exactly.
00:41:28.000 Let me ask you this.
00:41:30.000 Assume I get into the White House, okay?
00:41:34.000 I hope you do.
00:41:37.000 I'm going to get your help if I do.
00:41:40.000 Okay.
00:41:41.000 What do I, you know, and I want to close as many as I can to the 800 bases abroad.
00:41:48.000 Bring people home and start unraveling the warfare state.
00:41:53.000 You know, what happens to our economy in this country?
00:41:55.000 Because those are a lot of jobs that are lost.
00:41:58.000 Those are people now who don't have jobs.
00:42:00.000 They're people who are armed, maybe, you know, who could be prone to violence or whatever.
00:42:05.000 And this is always the worry when you dismantle the military.
00:42:09.000 And then there's a, you know, you have a huge cohort of people who are deeply resentful because they want this to continue, the gravy train to continue.
00:42:17.000 Right.
00:42:17.000 And then how do you employ those people and what does it do to our economy?
00:42:22.000 I mean, is there, how do we spend that piece of it and just start reducing debt and start You know, rebuilding our industrial infrastructure at home.
00:42:32.000 Well, I think that's an important point, but we can exaggerate how crucial it is to the economy, because even though we have this monster defense budget of $900 billion, it's actually only about 4% of GDP today.
00:42:46.000 It's not nearly as a share of the economy, not nearly the 7% or 10%.
00:42:51.000 That we had during the 60s and 70s during the peak of the Cold War.
00:42:55.000 That's the first thing.
00:42:56.000 The second thing is we've had successful demobilizations after major wartime spending three or four times in the last century, and we made the adjustment quite rapidly When there was no reason to keep it going.
00:43:12.000 You know, there was a massive number of men under arms and the whole country was mobilized for war in 1917 and 18.
00:43:21.000 We did have a recession in 1920.
00:43:23.000 And by 22, we were booming.
00:43:25.000 It was the roaring 20s.
00:43:27.000 We had the big economy.
00:43:29.000 After 1945, everybody said, This was totally a war economy.
00:43:34.000 You couldn't buy a car.
00:43:35.000 You couldn't buy furniture.
00:43:36.000 Everything was refocused on war production and that when the war ended in 1945, there was going to be a long-lasting depression.
00:43:45.000 That's what some of the Keynesians were saying.
00:43:48.000 It didn't happen by 1947, 1948.
00:43:52.000 The economy was back on its feet as the civilian economy was doing well.
00:43:56.000 Same thing the lesser way after Korea, same thing after Vietnam.
00:44:00.000 So I think what we need to do is recognize that war spending is an economic negative in the long run.
00:44:09.000 It produces no goods or services that are of value to anybody.
00:44:14.000 It is ultimately a form of economic waste.
00:44:18.000 We don't get capital goods.
00:44:19.000 We don't get consumer goods.
00:44:21.000 We just get an arsenal, most of which we don't need.
00:44:25.000 And when you stop spending money on waste, on things that we don't need, either for defense and certainly for civilian life, the economy itself has great powers.
00:44:39.000 of adjustment and regeneration.
00:44:40.000 Maybe we have some kind of federal readjustment programs.
00:44:44.000 We've had those before.
00:44:46.000 I don't think you need much.
00:44:48.000 I think you have to basically say we're going to change the predicate.
00:44:54.000 We're going to have first an international push for new treaties, for arms control and arms reduction treaties.
00:45:04.000 We've mentioned that our $1.2 trillion defense budget is a high share of the world.
00:45:10.000 But there's $4 trillion being spent in the world today on arms that doesn't need to be spent.
00:45:18.000 And at least in 1920, our leaders tried to, you know, there was the famous naval agreement in 1922 that Attempted to reverse the naval arms race.
00:45:31.000 We tried to have agreements obviously in the 60s and 70s and did.
00:45:36.000 Your uncle led that process.
00:45:39.000 So what we need to do is basically let the American people know that we're in the process of making peace with the world and negotiating with the world, reducing the massive expenditures on both sides on arms.
00:45:55.000 And I think a lot of the rest of it will take care of itself if we can just change the fundamental direction.
00:46:03.000 Let me add to this, switching subjects.
00:46:06.000 We're going to reduce expenditures for the military, and that deals with some of this hugest momentous trillion-dollar budget deficits that we have.
00:46:17.000 $32 trillion is so massive compared to GDP. Between rich and poor, can that be remedied?
00:46:32.000 Can those two issues be remedied?
00:46:35.000 And how do you do it?
00:46:36.000 Well, there's big changes we have to make, and I'm glad you brought this up.
00:46:40.000 When I became budget director in 1981, the public debt was $980 billion.
00:46:45.000 It's now $32 trillion.
00:46:47.000 It was 30% of GDP. It's now 130%.
00:46:52.000 That has all happened within one lifetime, you know, in four decades.
00:46:57.000 So that's what we're up against and it has to change.
00:47:00.000 The second reason that we need to focus on is it happened because the Federal Reserve became perverted in its function and started to monetize all of this debt that was being created to fund both a burgeoning welfare state And a big bloated warfare state at the same time.
00:47:24.000 We didn't have enough money or taxpayer willingness to fund both.
00:47:29.000 And so we borrowed like crazy $30 trillion of new debt in a lifetime.
00:47:34.000 So what we need to do is basically recognize that Two trillion annual deaths are built in.
00:47:43.000 They're baked in the cake.
00:47:44.000 If we continue with the warfare state that we have today and all the domestic programs we have, and that if we can at least bring this defense budget down dramatically, we can begin to chip away at that and get back to some level of fiscal sanity.
00:48:03.000 But none of it can happen until we bring the Fed back under control.
00:48:08.000 They have printed so much money.
00:48:10.000 They have created such tremendous bubbles, such tremendous imbalances and exaggerations in our economy.
00:48:18.000 And it's not helped, you know, Main Street.
00:48:21.000 It's not helped the average guy.
00:48:23.000 This has all been, as I said in a thing I wrote recently, it wasn't like President John Kennedy said when he You know, introduced his new economics and he said the rising tide lifts all boats.
00:48:36.000 That was the idea.
00:48:37.000 We're going to cut taxes and get investment and the economy is going to perk up and everybody will benefit.
00:48:43.000 The kind that we have today is a rising tide that lifted all yachts.
00:48:48.000 It went to the 1%.
00:48:51.000 In the last 30 years, the net worth of the top 1% has gone from $4 trillion to $44 trillion.
00:48:59.000 If you can imagine that, a $40 trillion gain.
00:49:04.000 The bottom 50% went from 1% to 4%.
00:49:07.000 They've gained $3 trillion.
00:49:09.000 50% of the households in America The top 1% have gained 40.
00:49:14.000 Now, this isn't because of Wild West capitalism.
00:49:18.000 This is because of wild money printing, too much liquidity, too much monetary stimulus in the system.
00:49:28.000 We have a situation today where the top 1% average net worth is $38 million.
00:49:34.000 The bottom 50% average net worth is $56,700 to $1.
00:49:41.000 That's not free market capitalism.
00:49:43.000 That's not the natural order of- Just repeat that so people can hear it because what you're saying is the bottom 50% of the country Yep.
00:49:54.000 That the average net worth is 56,000.
00:49:58.000 56,000.
00:49:59.000 And the top 1% is 38 million, rough ratio 700 to 1, double what it was as recently as 1990.
00:50:12.000 So this is not the natural evolutionary outcome of market capitalism, even though some You know, leftists want to say that.
00:50:21.000 This is because we've had a central bank, both here and around the world, that has put so much liquidity into the markets, and that liquidity has never left the canyons of Wall Street.
00:50:35.000 You know, it didn't cause an acceleration of investment or job growth or living standards.
00:50:42.000 No.
00:50:42.000 Actually, in the 60s and 50s, 60s and 70s, median real family income It grew at 2.5% a year.
00:50:50.000 Since the year 2000, it's grown at 0.5%.
00:50:54.000 In other words, a half a percent, not 2.5%.
00:50:58.000 That's a huge difference if maintained year after year over time.
00:51:03.000 It's 5 to 1.
00:51:05.000 What has happened is that these bad money printing policies of the central banks Have created this massive windfall of financial prosperity to the top 1%, even as the real growth rate and investment rate of the economy has slowed to a crawl, which has left the middle class or main street, as we might want to call it, high and dry.
00:51:31.000 That's another whole part of this syndrome that we really need to correct in a big way.
00:51:38.000 You know, what happens when you try to fix that?
00:51:41.000 I mean, it's, you know, because if they just stop renting the money the way they're doing it, there's a bubble at that point, right?
00:51:49.000 And that breaks.
00:51:53.000 I'm just asking this.
00:51:54.000 The president who tries to mess around with that bubble is, you know, he or she is going to cause the collapse of the entire economy.
00:52:02.000 Anybody who tries to fix it, Yeah.
00:52:06.000 Well, you know, what I would say is the president should stop trying to take credit for an artificial fantasy land economy that can't be sustained and instead come into office telling the people that this is a fantasy.
00:52:24.000 It's not sustainable.
00:52:25.000 We have these massive bubbles.
00:52:27.000 They're unfair.
00:52:28.000 The benefit has gone to a very small fraction of people.
00:52:32.000 So we're going to have to go through a cleansing process.
00:52:36.000 But I think, frankly, a big impact is going to be to the 1% when the bubble is finally and fully punctured by a change at the Fed.
00:52:47.000 So I think anybody that really wants to get a grasp on this needs to go into office We're going to have a house cleaning at the Fed.
00:52:59.000 The stock market is likely to go down.
00:53:02.000 Get your money into something safe, not in these go-go stocks, not in the tech stocks.
00:53:07.000 Not in the NASDAQ 100.
00:53:10.000 Get prepared because we have got to get back to reality, into something that's sustainable and fair, and having our capital go into productive investment, not financial engineering.
00:53:25.000 That's where it's been going, into financial engineering.
00:53:28.000 We've had $25 trillion, a staggering number, of financial engineering, stock buybacks, big M&A deals.
00:53:37.000 Accomplished nothing over the last two decades instead of that money going in.
00:53:43.000 Real investment has been flat for two decades.
00:53:46.000 Real investment after you take the needs for a depreciation out of the equation.
00:53:53.000 And that just tells you this isn't working.
00:53:56.000 And I think someone has to tell the public it's not working.
00:54:00.000 We can change.
00:54:01.000 We used to know how to do it.
00:54:03.000 We had prosperity in the 50s and the 60s and into the 70s.
00:54:08.000 And we weren't printing money like crazy then.
00:54:11.000 We weren't running 3%, 4%, 5% of GDP deficits.
00:54:15.000 We weren't trying to even be the hegemon of the world.
00:54:19.000 And that was in the time of the Cold War.
00:54:22.000 So we go back to basics.
00:54:24.000 I think that's what the theme needs to be.
00:54:26.000 We've done it before.
00:54:27.000 We can do it again.
00:54:29.000 There might be some bumps and grinds between here and there, but we have to make a start and we have to recognize where we are.
00:54:38.000 David Stockman, thank you so much for joining me today.
00:54:41.000 I hope you'll come back.
00:54:43.000 I really, really want to finish this conversation and Thank you,