RFK Jr. The Defender - July 02, 2023


Violence In France and Ukraine with Col Douglas Macgregor


Episode Stats

Length

16 minutes

Words per Minute

165.96631

Word Count

2,791

Sentence Count

183

Hate Speech Sentences

5


Summary

Colonel Doug McGregor is a decorated combat veteran, the author of five books, a PhD, and a defense and foreign policy consultant who was commissioned in the regular army in 1976. After a year at the Virginia Military Institute and four years at West Point, Colonel McGregor retired in 2004. In 2020, the President appointed Colonel McGregor to serve as Senior Advisor to the Secretary of Defense. He holds an MA in Comparative Politics and a PhD in International Relations from the University of Virginia and is a regular contributor to publications such as The New York Times, The Huffington Post, and The Daily Beast. He is married to the former First Lady, Anne Hathaway, and they have a son, a daughter and a son-in-law, all of whom are members of the First Lady s security team. He is also a frequent guest on CNN and other media outlets, and served as the Vice President of the French Foreign Legion from 2007-2009. He has served as an adviser to the French President, Emmanuel Macron, and has been a member of the Legion of Honor, the French National Guard, and the French Intelligence Service, among other things. This episode was produced in response to the ongoing unrest in France, and features Colonel McGregor s updates from his holiday in Marseilles, France. It was edited and produced by David Axelrod and Sarah Abdurrahmaneau, with additional help from Peter Kuchta, a contributing editor at The Daily Mail and The New Statesman, and additional reporting by Matthew Boll, a former British correspondent for The Telegraph, and Alex Blumberg, a freelance journalist for The Independent, and an editor at the Daily Mail, and his wife, Natalie Barbier, a friend of the New York Post and The Telegraph. Thank you for joining us on our holiday. We really appreciate it. -- Thank you so much for your support, and we really appreciate the support you're listening to us, too, we really really do appreciate it, too much of it, really appreciate you, really really really means it, we appreciate you. -- -- -- and we'll see you back next week, bye, bye bye. -- Yours Truly, Rory Mcgregor, -- Cheers, John Murog -- RIP, Rory Bruenig -- EJ McCARTHY -- MURDERER -- THE PODCAST AND KELLY PENARDO -- VOTER MODE -- AND KAVAN CHEERTER


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, we have Colonel Doug McGregor back.
00:00:02.000 Colonel McGregor is a decorated combat veteran, the author of five books, a PhD, and a defense and foreign policy consultant who was commissioned in the regular army in 1976 after a year at the Virginia Military Institute and four years at West Point.
00:00:18.000 In 2004, Colonel McGregor retired.
00:00:21.000 In 2020, the President appointed McGregor to serve as Senior Advisor to the Secretary of Defense.
00:00:27.000 He holds an MA in Comparative Politics and a PhD in International Relations from the University of Virginia.
00:00:33.000 And thanks so much for joining us on the holiday.
00:00:37.000 But I wanted to get a couple of quick updates from you, Colonel McGregor.
00:00:41.000 First of all, can we talk for a minute about what's happening in France?
00:00:45.000 Yes, sir.
00:00:46.000 Can you describe it?
00:00:47.000 Well, the last count that I heard was unrest in 40 cities, with the worst unrest in Marseille.
00:00:54.000 And Marseille, of course, as a city, has a much higher population of North Africans, Africans, Muslims, if you will, than almost any other city in Europe.
00:01:06.000 So that's not entirely surprising.
00:01:08.000 But we don't have too much information.
00:01:11.000 President Macron, other than committing additional policemen to contain the violence, really hasn't said very much or made any sweeping decisions.
00:01:18.000 And I think everyone is waiting for some sort of definitive statement from the President of the Republic about what he plans to do.
00:01:26.000 And the rioting began with a young man who was killed, I believe, at a traffic stop.
00:01:34.000 Yes.
00:01:34.000 And, you know, the circumstances are not clear.
00:01:37.000 The policeman apologized, but, you know, that doesn't mean a great deal.
00:01:42.000 It doesn't necessarily mean he did anything wrong.
00:01:44.000 And it's one of these situations where the single action became a catalyst for apparently violence that was waiting to happen.
00:01:53.000 I mean, the level of destruction and the degree of violence aimed at Frenchmen, France, the French society, the French Republic is really quite enormous.
00:02:04.000 And so one has to ask, were they waiting for something like this to happen?
00:02:08.000 Or is this just a spontaneous outburst of anger and frustration and violence against France?
00:02:16.000 I don't know.
00:02:18.000 And one of the things that we've seen is that President Macron is blaming the social media sites, which is likely to sort of lead to greater censorship probably in Europe, I would imagine.
00:02:33.000 I think you're probably right.
00:02:35.000 At this point, probably the next step is for him to declare a state of emergency, which he has not done.
00:02:42.000 Yes, and we also haven't heard anything from the French military.
00:02:45.000 And remember, a couple of years ago, you had a thousand French officers, including a substantial number of retired general officers, sign a document imploring him to recognize the danger inside France of the kinds of things we're seeing today.
00:03:01.000 And then it was kind of put to bed again.
00:03:04.000 Remember, since 1968, we've had several bouts of this kind of thing.
00:03:08.000 But this is arguably the worst, with more damage than we've seen before and more danger to people.
00:03:14.000 But no, he hasn't said anything.
00:03:16.000 But I think the French army is waiting for some sort of direction from him, because I think their view is that this cannot be solved without their participation.
00:03:25.000 And what do you think his hesitation is about declaring a state of emergency?
00:03:31.000 I think he doesn't want to face the reality that he has a very divided nation.
00:03:35.000 That's an ugly truth.
00:03:37.000 This is just something that the French have to face.
00:03:39.000 Until you face that truth, you're not going to find any solutions.
00:03:43.000 Doing what you've done in the past is not going to work for the future.
00:03:47.000 I don't think he's sorted through that.
00:03:49.000 I don't think he has an answer.
00:03:51.000 Let's talk about the Ukraine.
00:03:53.000 I haven't spoken to you since the insurgency by the Wagner group.
00:04:00.000 Can you give us your take on that?
00:04:04.000 I think the whole Wagner incident is being largely misinterpreted in the West.
00:04:10.000 I think there were lots of wishful thinkers in Washington and London in particular that hoped that this was some sort of direct challenge to Vladimir Putin.
00:04:19.000 It wasn't.
00:04:20.000 I think we need to establish a few facts right up front.
00:04:24.000 Assuming that this was an uprising or a challenge to Putin, nobody joined it.
00:04:30.000 No one inside Russia saw it that way.
00:04:32.000 No single Russian military commander, no serious politician in the country supported any kind of uprising.
00:04:40.000 So I'm not sure it was an uprising.
00:04:43.000 Secondly, Wagner is an organization that under Russian law was only supposed to be employed beyond Russia's borders.
00:04:52.000 In other words, it was not to be used inside Russia.
00:04:54.000 This man, Purgosian, has obviously become very wealthy as a result of it.
00:04:58.000 Incidentally, Colonel McGregor, as the audience knows, the Russian Constitution actually prohibits the presence of mercenary forces on Russian soil.
00:05:11.000 Yeah, you know, my view is I don't like to use the word mercenary.
00:05:15.000 I think they're analogous to the French Foreign Legion.
00:05:18.000 And of course, the French Foreign Legion is always external to France, except under special circumstances.
00:05:25.000 So as soon as World War I began, they brought the French Foreign Legion back to help fight.
00:05:29.000 As soon as the war ended, the French Foreign Legion returned to North Africa.
00:05:33.000 Same thing was true in World War II. So I think that's a better analog because everyone in the Wagner Group It's not going to happen.
00:05:50.000 But this issue had really concerned, particularly the Minister of Defense, Shoigu.
00:05:56.000 Shoigu had said, look, this can't go on.
00:05:59.000 We have to make some provisions, arrangements.
00:06:02.000 And then I think Garazimov, who doesn't like Prigozhin, said, you know, that's right.
00:06:07.000 Let's disband Wagner.
00:06:09.000 And of course, Prigozhin felt that that was unfair to the men that had done so much to fight for Russia.
00:06:14.000 They deserve something better.
00:06:16.000 And I think he was also quite angry with what he perceives to be the slow, deliberate approach to everything that the Russian high command has taken.
00:06:25.000 And so his effort was to alert Putin to his displeasure, make that clear, and then also to try and get Putin's ear about the generals in the Russian army, that he doesn't think they're doing what they should.
00:06:37.000 Now, it all ended rather quickly.
00:06:39.000 There were some casualties.
00:06:41.000 We know that Wagner, at least a small contingent of approximately 4,000, 5,000 that approached Moscow, was stopped by helicopters and aircraft.
00:06:52.000 We also know that that was not ordered by Putin.
00:06:55.000 That was done independent of his orders.
00:06:58.000 So once this occurred, Prigozhin immediately halted everything.
00:07:02.000 It turns out, the contrary to popular belief, he actually did speak to Putin over the quote-unquote phone, agreed to stop it immediately.
00:07:10.000 Everyone returned to barracks.
00:07:12.000 And then this deal was cut to send him and some number of Wagner soldiers to I don't think there was a genuine uprising.
00:07:31.000 Putin is stronger than he's ever been.
00:07:35.000 If you believe the polls that we can take in Russia through various sources, his approval rating is about 89%, which is certainly infinitely better than the 30% we give to President Biden.
00:07:47.000 So I think that is over.
00:07:49.000 Now, what will happen in the future?
00:07:51.000 I think today, Russians are waiting for President Putin to make some decisions.
00:07:56.000 Is he going to follow up this failed counterattack or failed counteroffensive from the Ukrainians with an aggressive offensive of his own?
00:08:05.000 Or is he going to continue to wait behind these defenses to see if anything else is left and then make a decision?
00:08:11.000 We don't know.
00:08:12.000 I have no idea, but we do know a new commander in the theater is supposed to take over.
00:08:17.000 That man is the commander of Russian Airborne Forces.
00:08:20.000 I know nothing about him, and I've seen no official confirmation of it, but there are numerous outlets that continue to insist there's going to be a new commander and that General Gerasimov is going to go back to doing what he did before and act as the chief of the general staff.
00:08:35.000 And was Gerasimov the cause of the slow movement or the defensive posture of the Russian forces?
00:08:45.000 You know, we really don't know.
00:08:47.000 The truth of the matter is that President Putin, from the very beginning of this operation, was very reluctant to commit large forces.
00:08:54.000 He thought he would have a negotiating partner.
00:08:57.000 It took several months for him to finally conclude no one would talk to him.
00:09:02.000 And then he agreed with the general officers that were in command that they would need a larger force.
00:09:06.000 Remember, this place is the size of Texas.
00:09:09.000 And they simply said, look, we don't have enough forces.
00:09:11.000 If you want to seize this place and secure it at all, we need more troops.
00:09:15.000 And so we've had this buildup.
00:09:17.000 Now we've got about 750,000 troops in Western Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, Russian troops.
00:09:25.000 They're trained, they're ready, they can move, they can attack.
00:09:28.000 Will he attack or is he going to continue to sit?
00:09:32.000 Now, clearly, Putin is watching what's happening in the West.
00:09:36.000 Seeing what's happening in France has definitely had an impact.
00:09:40.000 I think he knows that we have our own problems and that we are much weaker internally than he is.
00:09:47.000 Russian cohesion is at an all-time high.
00:09:49.000 He has no trouble with support inside Russia whatsoever.
00:09:53.000 But I think we have serious questions now in the European electorates, much more so than in the United States, about the wisdom of continuing this policy.
00:10:02.000 So I think he's waiting to see as well whether or not there's any change in any of the governments in Europe.
00:10:08.000 I mean, do you see any link?
00:10:11.000 I'm not suggesting that there is one, but do you see any link between the discontent on the street in France and what's happening in the Ukraine, or are they completely disconnected from each other?
00:10:24.000 No, sir.
00:10:25.000 I don't think they're completely disconnected.
00:10:27.000 I think there are multiple complaints in France.
00:10:30.000 And I think the one in France right now is the significant truth.
00:10:34.000 I mean, you've got millions of people who don't necessarily sign on for French law, French legal institutions, the French police, the French military.
00:10:44.000 How do you handle that?
00:10:45.000 What are you going to do about it?
00:10:47.000 So I think in that sense, Putin sees France as maybe a bellwether for what could happen in many other parts of Europe.
00:10:54.000 The situation in Italy is not good.
00:10:56.000 The situation in Germany is not good.
00:10:58.000 Those are the two biggest economies in the European Union.
00:11:01.000 So I think all of these things are on Putin's mind, and that may have some impact on him.
00:11:07.000 Now, as far as the war is concerned, I don't see much evidence, to be perfectly blunt, that anyone in Western Europe is interested in fighting in Eastern Ukraine.
00:11:17.000 So I just don't see it.
00:11:18.000 And I think most Americans, if they were challenged, you think we should support the Ukrainians.
00:11:23.000 Oh, yeah, we should help them.
00:11:25.000 Well, why don't we send 150,000 troops into Ukraine?
00:11:28.000 I think you're going to get it.
00:11:29.000 What?
00:11:30.000 What?
00:11:30.000 We didn't sign on for that.
00:11:32.000 So I don't think the support...
00:11:34.000 For a serious Western intervention in what's happening in Ukraine is really very strong.
00:11:39.000 I think it's razor thin.
00:11:41.000 And what about Ukrainian troop strength?
00:11:44.000 I mean, where they've killed a tremendous number of people, are they able to replace those at the front line?
00:11:50.000 I know that there are press gangs operating in Western Ukraine now, even in the Carpathians, in what we call Southern Galicia.
00:11:59.000 And they're trying to forcibly round up people to serve in the Ukrainian army.
00:12:03.000 They're running out of able-bodied men, and more men have left Ukraine.
00:12:08.000 If anybody can get out of Ukraine, they're continuing to leave.
00:12:12.000 The trains are arriving in Germany full of Ukrainians virtually every day.
00:12:17.000 My German friends see lots of single men getting off the trains.
00:12:22.000 I don't think there's any enthusiasm left in Ukraine.
00:12:24.000 They know that the hospitals are full, the death toll.
00:12:28.000 It depends on who you talk to.
00:12:30.000 Probably 300,000 dead, could be 350,000 dead, and we're not even addressing the terrible, terrible wounds that people have sustained and the inability to ever return most of the wounded to active duty.
00:12:43.000 I think they're scraping the bottom of the barrel.
00:12:46.000 And is President Zelenskyy's popularity holding up in the Ukraine, or are people beginning to question some of that leadership?
00:12:55.000 I think his leadership is widely questioned, and I think people are very afraid of the Ukrainian secret police.
00:13:01.000 They're afraid of ending up in jail or much worse.
00:13:05.000 We have all sorts of videos being posted by Ukrainian soldiers showing Ukrainian officers killing Ukrainian soldiers who refuse to fight.
00:13:14.000 We also know that we've had a lot of desertions.
00:13:17.000 Platoon size and company size elements, that's anywhere from 30 up to 150 people, have come across and surrendered to the Russians.
00:13:26.000 And from the very beginning, the Russians have always treated the Ukrainians that surrendered very, very well.
00:13:31.000 So they know they're not going to be mistreated.
00:13:33.000 They know they're going to be fed and cared for.
00:13:35.000 And several times, people have surrendered, saying, I've got a lot of wounded here.
00:13:39.000 My Ukrainian superiors refuse to evacuate these people.
00:13:42.000 They tell me I've got to fight on, but if I do, all of these men will die, and I don't want them to die.
00:13:46.000 So they've been told, well, then come on over.
00:13:49.000 You know, we'll take care of them.
00:13:50.000 So I think this is the end phase.
00:13:52.000 The only thing keeping this...
00:13:54.000 Ukrainian effort on life support, frankly, is the United States.
00:13:58.000 Primarily, we're sending in the cash, we're sending in equipment, we're sending ammunition, whatever we can, and we're pushing our lives to do the same thing.
00:14:05.000 Cut that off and this tragedy will end.
00:14:09.000 You are a warfighter, Colonel McGregor, and probably the greatest hero during the Iraq War.
00:14:15.000 How do they communicate?
00:14:17.000 If a platoon wants to surrender to the Russians, how do they communicate that?
00:14:23.000 Remember, they all speak Russian.
00:14:25.000 Many of the Ukrainians, virtually every Ukrainian speaks Russian.
00:14:29.000 That doesn't mean there aren't Ukrainians that speak Ukrainian.
00:14:32.000 There are.
00:14:33.000 But the bottom line, it's very easy to essentially put up a white flag and then yell across in Russian, look, we want to talk.
00:14:40.000 And the Russians immediately cease fire and then you have an exchange.
00:14:44.000 Sometimes they actually come up on one another's radios.
00:14:47.000 Now, how they get each other's frequency is anybody's guess, but That's also happened.
00:14:52.000 So the communication is there.
00:14:53.000 They go back and forth.
00:14:55.000 Remember, the people that the Russians were most concerned about were always in this Azov regiment, these radical, self-styled neo-Nazis.
00:15:04.000 The vast majority of the soldiers in the Ukrainian army do not fall into that category.
00:15:08.000 They're normal people, most of whom would prefer to be home.
00:15:11.000 And as the Azov Battalion, most of them are now dead or wounded, right?
00:15:16.000 Right.
00:15:17.000 Yeah, I think so, but they seem to have replenished some of their ranks.
00:15:20.000 They went into a long period of raising new manpower and new people.
00:15:26.000 That seems to have happened.
00:15:28.000 How many of them are around and how effective they are, I don't know.
00:15:31.000 I'm told that a group of these radicals surrounds Zelensky and his government, and probably to ensure that no one there considers seriously negotiating with Moscow.
00:15:42.000 And what is your impression or do you have any kind of polling data or intuition or anecdotal data about the attitude towards Zelensky among the expatriate community of Ukrainians in Europe and in the United States?
00:15:59.000 The further away you get from Ukraine, the further away you are from the war zone, the more Ukrainians you will find that support Zelensky.
00:16:08.000 The closer you get to Ukraine, and when you move into the war zone, that's where you begin to discover his support is largely gone.
00:16:16.000 Without the secret police, without the threat of violence against individuals, I don't think he would stay in power for very long.
00:16:23.000 Colonel McGregor, thank you so much for taking some time off from your 4th of July weekend to join us.
00:16:29.000 Keep making your speeches and talking out there.
00:16:31.000 You're having a huge impact.
00:16:33.000 Don't listen to anybody that tells you otherwise.
00:16:35.000 As usual, you really make a huge contribution to our understanding of what's happening over there.
00:16:41.000 So thank you for immersing yourself in that and sharing your knowledge with us.
00:16:46.000 Thank you, sir.
00:16:47.000 And have a great 4th of July.