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SHNEAKO
- March 03, 2026
Professor Jiang Predicts Iran War Victory
Episode Stats
Length
53 minutes
Words per Minute
156.89847
Word Count
8,438
Sentence Count
370
Misogynist Sentences
4
Hate Speech Sentences
97
Summary
Summaries generated with
gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ
.
Transcript
Transcript generated with
Whisper
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turbo
).
Misogyny classifications generated with
MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny
.
Hate speech classifications generated with
facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target
.
00:00:00.000
so water is a huge issue it doesn't matter if iran kills american soldiers destroys american
00:00:04.880
military it doesn't have to do that all it has to do is destroy the desalination plants and then
00:00:08.800
the gcc is destroyed okay imagine the people who have all this dubai real estate how they're feeling
00:00:14.480
right now that makes sense the war is going to be over in 24 hours top boy saying boy it's just a
00:00:20.160
clout chase yeah if you have a bunch of property there i can understand but i did not know this
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about the water supply so the first strategy is to create a international global jihad of the
00:00:31.280
shia against the american empire it's already happening and it has and we need to get there
00:00:35.840
to people like oh this suny shia like bro shut up shut up israel or the great satan they want
00:00:42.800
you to be divided right now unification right now is crucial crucial ignore the differences
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oh he just dropped oh okay we have to watch this we have to 15 minutes ago
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okay oh we have to 15 minutes ago game theory the u.s iran war so he's back
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oh he just said this lecture today hey varus what's going on
00:01:08.080
i hope everyone had a nice break and welcome back to the end of the world so as you know
00:01:13.840
world war iii has started there's not going to be captions this is so new that the captions
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haven't even generated yet.
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The United States and Israel have started to attack Iran.
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And we are now in the fourth day of this war.
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And we can expect this war to last for many weeks, possibly also for many years.
00:01:33.600
But I promise you that after this war is done, the world will never be the same again.
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so what we will do these next few weeks is use game theory and understand and
00:01:45.740
analyze the geopolitical situation and so I'm going to teach you the ideas the
00:01:50.360
theories the techniques to understand the world around you and make predictions
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and we can know if our analysis is correct because all this is happening in
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real time and so we can test it against reality all right so let's go over some
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basic facts about what's happened so far. So in the early morning of Saturday in
00:02:12.260
Tehran, the Israelis and Americans launched a decapitation strike against
00:02:17.360
the Al-Atona Khamenei who is the supreme leader of Iran. Now there are arguments
00:02:26.240
and disputes about as to what happened. The Americans and Israelis said that they
00:02:31.100
had real intelligence about where the leader was and so they sent airplanes to just bomb the crap
00:02:37.980
out of the place they also had a spy who was able to record the body of the dead atatola
00:02:44.700
i think jang prediction this is predictive history i think he's going to agree with my take
00:02:49.580
that khameini allowed this to unite and then this was announced through getting martyred the iranians
00:02:56.220
denied this and the iranians insisted he was still alive but eventually state media admitted that he
00:03:02.540
did die in the airstrike but then what they also said is that the atola he's 86 years old and he
00:03:08.780
chose to die he could have gone to moscow but instead he chose to stay in torah and die for his
00:03:15.160
people but not only that but he died along many of his relatives he died along with his daughter
00:03:22.020
his son-in-law his grandchildren so the entire so many of the family died in this assault
00:03:29.300
also there's been reporting that he had prostate cancer okay so he was going to die fairly soon as
00:03:35.220
well so what you need to understand first about the war is that even though the americans and
00:03:40.980
israelis claim great success in decapitating the leadership of the iranians from the iranian
00:03:47.540
perspective this is a martyrdom martyrdom okay i think i got it right immediately did i
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and so the religion of the iranians is called shia um muslim and this is different from sunni
00:04:03.940
okay so here's he's going to go into the difference between well about the shias and
00:04:07.780
how much they care about martyrdom how important this is to them and their warrior spirit and he's
00:04:12.420
going to talk about the differentiation about the epsi regime they don't have that about how
00:04:16.420
the public is not on their side now even though iran is outnumbered even though iran does not
00:04:21.380
have the same financial capabilities the fact that they have the warrior spirit is going to be a major
00:04:25.300
advantage well what did vera say i didn't see it so uh sunnis are majority about nine percent of
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all muslims in the world the shia have always been the minority and as such they've always been
00:04:37.380
persecuted so in a shia faith the core value the force that binds everyone together and gives them
00:04:45.140
purpose and meaning in life that galvanizes them into action is the idea of martyrdom which forces
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jihad you sacrifice yourself for your religion sacrifice yourself for the common good so think
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of the death of khamenei as a sacrifice a self-sacrifice in order to motivate the iranians
00:05:04.020
in this war okay so that's the first thing you need to understand that for the iranians this is
00:05:09.860
not a typical war this is not an economic war this is not a war of resistance this is a jihad
00:05:15.300
okay so war against the great satan to avenge their leader they will fight to the death all
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right that's number one number two is this also that morning when um the atollah was killed
00:05:28.900
there's really struck a school in the south of toran killing about 150 school children
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107 miles in primary school and again there's not debate and argument as to what happened
00:05:41.220
this really said that first of all the school was next to a military base we're targeting the
00:05:45.460
military base and second of all it wasn't us which struck the school it was a air defense
00:05:51.300
missile that went off course okay and the irradiance insisted no the israelis purposefully
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attacked the school to kill the school children and then you're like why would this really do that
00:06:04.740
within these few years what we've seen what they've done in gaza they love killing kids this is what
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they are this is who they are this is what they do they love to kill children it's their favorite
00:06:14.340
activity palestine to the palestinians and it's pretty embarrassed i did not see mecca footage
00:06:18.740
mashallah assistant what the israelis have been doing all right so this action against the israelis
00:06:24.740
it's meant to show to themselves in the world that we are now all in okay we've made the sacrifice
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we are now committed to this war to winning this war at all costs and this action has also
00:06:38.420
provoked the iranian people to resist with their full might okay so i want you to keep this in
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mind and again we don't have complete evidence that it's the israelis who did this but given
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past actions from the israelis this is fairly consistent with what they've done killing kids
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okay so we can assume that this is something that's really do did why they did this what the
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purpose is something we will discuss as we move on okay it's very complicated is professional jang
00:07:03.460
saying that yids kill kids jang next i want to show you this this is dubai and dubai is considered
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one of the wealthiest safest cities in the world there are thousands tens of thousands of westerners
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who move to dubai because it's clean you don't pay taxes you make a lot of money and you there
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There are great restaurants.
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And this is really the economic model of Dubai.
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It's one of the Gulf, the GCC countries,
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the Gulf coastal countries.
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And for the longest time, Dubai had a really good deal
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because they were under the protection
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of the American military.
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So they didn't have to pay for defense.
00:07:48.280
And then they were in the Middle East, which
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is the oil producing center of the world.
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And so they focused on aviation.
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They focused on logistics, they focused on finance,
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on tourism, and they were extremely wealthy, right?
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I'm not sure if you've taken Emirates,
00:08:00.280
one of the best airlines in the world.
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So their airport, Dubai airport, is the busiest in the world.
00:08:05.940
And Dubai, for the longest time,
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was flourishing under American protection.
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And Dubai said to the world, listen,
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we're like Switzerland, we're neutral.
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We don't want any involvement in any wars.
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We're here just to take care of our citizens,
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to make sure everyone has a good time, to make money.
00:08:23.280
And then right after the war started, the Iranians attacked the GCC, okay?
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Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Buran, Qatar, Kuwait, they attacked these places.
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And these were like, what's going on?
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We're neutral, man.
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We're not involved in this war.
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And the airport was shut down in Dubai.
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At one point, the rich people in Dubai were willing to pay about $25,000 US dollars.
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just get on a plane and get out of there. Okay? So, um, the reality is this for the longest time,
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Dubai had a reputation for being safe. And that's why people move their money there.
00:09:04.220
Guess what? I wrote that exactly before you even said it, Dubai, the reputation of being the safest
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city in the world. And unfortunately I like Dubai. This is going to be a major, major downside
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to its reputation. I don't think people can confidently say it's the safest city in the
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world again and i'm wondering if jang is going to say it but so many influencers there this war
00:09:25.460
around cloud chasing they got a lot of the dubai influencers to do damage control and try to fix
00:09:31.980
that reputation and i saw a post i'm not sure if it's true saying that you are not allowed to film
00:09:39.620
the attacks don't film the attacks and you can understand why if it's a tourist economy and the
00:09:44.320
The airport's the busiest in the world.
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How important it is for them to maintain their reputation
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by not filming the destruction.
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After what the Iranians did, it's dead.
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Dubai is a city in the long term.
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It is dead.
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Because you're a wealthy Westerner,
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you're not going to move to a place
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where it could be attacked any time by the Iranians.
00:10:00.740
You might move to Singapore.
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You might move to Hong Kong, Japan, South America,
00:10:04.960
but you're not moving to Dubai, okay?
00:10:06.880
So the big question for us is,
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why do the Iranians do this?
00:10:10.980
It was the Israelis and Americans who attacked you.
00:10:12.700
why go after the GCC, all right, and not only that, but they're escalating the attacks against
00:10:18.440
the GCC, so this is something that we will look at very closely today. Well, the short answer is
00:10:23.840
because these places, even though they pretend to be neutral, they house the American military.
00:10:30.680
They allow the Israelis and the Americans to use their airspace to attack Iran from, all right,
00:10:35.900
so this is Bahrain. Now, Bahrain is interesting, okay, because I want you guys to remember this,
00:10:40.540
But Bahrain will probably be one of the major centers of this conflict because, first of all, this is the American Fifth Fleet, right?
00:10:48.380
This is their naval base in the Middle East, and as you can see, the Iranians are attacking it with missiles, and it's being blown up.
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Bahrain is interesting because it has about 50% or even more, okay, Shia, which is the religion of the Iranians.
00:11:07.540
But the people in charge are the Sunnis.
00:11:10.540
And so what makes this strike really important from our perspective is,
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first of all, not only are the Iranians attacking U.S. military assets,
00:11:20.540
not only are they destroying the economies of the GCC,
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they're also trying to ignite a religious war, right?
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Because if you're Shia, you're loyal to the Atatollah.
00:11:31.540
And if he's dead, then you must, as a religious obligation, now commit jihad against your enemies.
00:11:38.020
And it's no different in other religions where, listen, if you want to kill the Pope,
00:11:42.100
the Catholics would be really angry at you and they would want to kill you.
00:11:44.260
Yeah, I totally like the Pope.
00:11:45.240
So now you have the Shia who will probably eventually arise, creating a revolution in Buran.
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So I think Buran will be the first to fall.
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Dubai will probably go bankrupt.
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But in the long term, we can expect the entire GCC area.
00:12:00.480
Dubai going bankrupt?
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including Saudi Arabia, to eventually collapse, okay?
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And this is something we'll use game theory to understand.
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All right, let's continue.
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So, we will know how this war develops
00:12:13.620
just based on geography, okay?
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So this is a map.
00:12:16.200
And this map, even if you don't really know the war,
00:12:19.480
even if you don't know the participants,
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even if you don't know the weaponry,
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this map will tell you exactly how this war will progress.
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All right, so some certain things
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to keep in mind about this map.
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This is what we call this area, okay?
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Really small, but it's 33 kilometers wide, okay?
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33.
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It's really, really narrow, okay?
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This small area, guys, it's called the Strait of Hormuz.
00:12:43.340
All right?
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Hormuz is closed.
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It's important because it's really the center of the world.
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This one area is the nexus, the pivot of the world.
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Let me explain why.
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First of all, from the GCC, you have 20% of all the world's oil flowing through this narrow strait.
00:13:05.780
Where does it go, guys?
00:13:06.820
It goes to Asia, India, Pakistan, South Korea, China, Japan.
00:13:13.820
India depends on 60% of its oil from this area.
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China depends on 40%.
00:13:19.660
Japan, 75%.
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Prime Minister Takeichi of Japan has said that,
00:13:25.100
Listen, if the shortfall moves closes,
00:13:27.820
we'll run out of oil in about eight, nine months.
00:13:30.320
The entire Japanese economy would collapse
00:13:32.260
in eight, nine months,
00:13:33.640
if the shortfall moves were to close.
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And guess what?
00:13:37.040
The ratings have closed the shortfall moves, okay?
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So we can expect that the entire global economy
00:13:42.900
will suffer greatly over the next few months, all right?
00:13:47.020
So that's point number one.
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Point number two is, okay,
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so the GCC sends oil across the shortfall moves,
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And what do they get back in return?
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Food, guys.
00:13:57.800
All right, so, people don't appreciate the GCC,
00:14:02.660
but it is really the linchpin of the American empire.
00:14:05.800
Because what is the American empire?
00:14:06.960
The American empire is the petrodollar, all right?
00:14:09.920
The idea of the petrodollar is this.
00:14:11.160
The US dollar is worth nothing.
00:14:12.800
It's only valued when people want it.
00:14:15.200
But the GCC says that if you want oil from us,
00:14:17.280
you have to pay us in US dollars, okay?
00:14:19.280
Then that is the basis of the value of the US dollar.
00:14:22.700
So, if the GCC collapses, the American economy
00:14:26.600
and the American empire both collapse at the same time.
00:14:31.320
The problem though is that GCC is an artificial
00:14:34.480
construct of empire.
00:14:36.220
It does not exist naturally.
00:14:39.120
Why?
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Because that's no food, that's no water.
00:14:43.760
Okay guys, no food, no water.
00:14:46.580
So these cities are able to grow in the millions
00:14:48.700
because all these petrol dollars flowing in.
00:14:50.940
If you close off the surface of a mousse,
00:14:52.860
there's no food coming in, right?
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They're all gonna starve.
00:14:58.040
How much food does the GCC get from overseas?
00:15:01.040
80%.
00:15:03.480
80% of all the food it consumes comes from overseas.
00:15:07.980
That it imports.
00:15:08.820
It doesn't grow by itself, it imports.
00:15:12.440
All right?
00:15:13.880
So the surface of a mousse is really key.
00:15:16.440
And again, the Iranians will close it
00:15:18.460
in order to strangle the global economy
00:15:21.040
and therefore bankrupt the American empire, all right?
00:15:24.980
Second thing you will notice is these mountains.
00:15:27.900
These mountains is what we call Iran, all right?
00:15:30.280
This is Iran.
00:15:31.120
Mountainous region, they need to deploy troops.
00:15:32.440
This is GCC.
00:15:33.360
American empire will not know how to invade.
00:15:34.800
This is not a fair matchup, right?
00:15:36.140
Because these are mountains.
00:15:37.140
And what can you do in mountains?
00:15:38.060
We can hide rocket bases.
00:15:39.940
You can hide drone bases.
00:15:41.120
You can hide missiles.
00:15:42.540
And that's the entire Iranian offensive strategy, all right?
00:15:47.160
From here, they can hide missiles and drones
00:15:50.120
from which to attack the GCC.
00:15:52.840
And what are they attacking?
00:15:53.940
They're attacking three things, right?
00:15:58.100
They're attacking American military bases.
00:16:01.260
American military bases.
00:16:06.440
That's number one.
00:16:08.580
Is it possible for the Americans to defend against these attacks?
00:16:10.700
The answer is no.
00:16:12.900
No, it's not.
00:16:13.980
It's the silliest thing in the world.
00:16:15.180
You have all these bases in the Middle East,
00:16:16.720
but you cannot defend them against the Iranians.
00:16:18.820
That's kind of strange, okay, but that's number one.
00:16:21.160
Number two is oil and energy.
00:16:26.680
How hard is it to blow up an oil field with a drone?
00:16:30.020
Not hard at all.
00:16:30.900
Can you defend these oil fields?
00:16:32.560
No, you cannot, all right?
00:16:35.440
Number three, and it's most important, is water, okay?
00:16:39.380
You guys don't know this,
00:16:40.260
but the GCC has little access to fresh water.
00:16:47.380
So the only way that it can produce water
00:16:49.000
is what we call desalination plants, okay?
00:16:51.760
These factories that take salt water
00:16:54.500
and then through electrical chemical process
00:16:56.340
turn it into fresh water for the population to use.
00:17:00.080
60% of the water supply in the GCC
00:17:03.380
comes from desalination plants, okay, 60%.
00:17:07.780
Is it hard to blow up a desalination plant
00:17:09.940
a drone the answer is it's very easy you understand okay so you have this absurd situation where iran
00:17:16.020
is a mountain fortress where it can hide its offensive capacity and the gcc it's just this
00:17:23.860
desert this flat desert and it is exposed to attack and there's nothing it can do about it
00:17:29.380
okay oh my god so at any point in this war the iranians can choose to just destroy
00:17:36.020
the entire gcc and there's nothing that anyone can do about it okay but iran also has a weakness
00:17:45.780
okay and this is fundamental so iran also has a water problem okay so for the longest time
00:17:51.700
they saw they started a drought issue okay just climate change and so what the plan
00:17:59.140
of the Israelis and Americans is, is destroy the water supply of the Iranians. Because the fortress,
00:18:07.220
it is a mountain fortress, but it can also be a mountain prison as well, where people are trapped
00:18:12.980
inside with no access to water. So what we're going to see right now, we're already seeing
00:18:17.940
attacks on civilian infrastructure, hospitals. In the future, you'll see attacks on water supply,
00:18:24.660
on dams, on reservoirs, on power plants. The point, the idea is to make Iran so inhabitable
00:18:34.180
that the people will have to rebel against the people, or there'll be a refugee crisis in Iran.
00:18:40.340
So as you can see from this map, this war, it is the end of the world. Both sides have the
00:18:48.100
to pretend to destroy each other it's really a question of how far do they want to go all right
00:18:54.820
we can also say this is almost a game of chicken okay
00:19:00.420
we can blow we can blow each other up how far do you want to go
00:19:06.500
and the problem is this the problem is that the iranians are shia here we go which believes in
00:19:14.260
martyrdom and you've killed the religious leader that khamenei so they're willing to go very very
00:19:19.460
far the disease the gcc countries are muslim but they're materialistic they love money and also
00:19:26.660
most of the population foreigners dubai are foreigners guess what's gonna happen if they
00:19:32.580
suffer they're gonna run away okay so this is not a fear matchup the big question that people have
00:19:42.420
is first of all are the americans going to use ground troops because the only way that you can
00:19:49.620
defeat iran is by using ground troops okay that's a big question we will look at in the next few
00:19:53.620
weeks will america send its army half million two million soldiers to topple the government okay
00:20:00.020
that's question number one question number two nuclear weapons
00:20:03.300
if you lose a war would you choose to use nuclear weapons okay that's another big question that i
00:20:13.940
don't think so i don't think the question that we have because of russia who gets involved
00:20:17.700
because this situation is so dire is that europe okay specifically germany france and the uk are
00:20:26.980
talking about entering this war yeah that's what uk has if that happens it is possible that russia
00:20:33.940
and china will retaliate and join into war on the side of the iranians look at all the key players
00:20:39.380
okay because of the importance of the certain moves because of the importance of the middle east
00:20:46.260
everyone has to get involved at some point and we're going to use scheme theory to really try
00:20:51.540
trying to understand what's happening on the ground
00:20:54.680
and where this could lead us, OK?
00:20:58.660
All right, you guys understand?
00:21:00.720
All right.
00:21:01.500
All right, let's continue.
00:21:03.780
So again, there are American bases all over the Middle East.
00:21:10.320
And originally, these bases were established
00:21:13.860
to protect them from basically their own people, OK?
00:21:17.700
These are monarchies that were imposed on these nations
00:21:21.840
by the Anglo-American empire, the British first,
00:21:24.480
and then Americans came to support these monarchies.
00:21:28.580
And so they provide defense.
00:21:31.260
But then you're like, wait a minute here.
00:21:33.420
I mean, didn't you just say that these American bases can't
00:21:35.380
actually defend these people, that they're exposed?
00:21:37.920
And the answer is, yes, that's true.
00:21:40.460
But remember that the American military was built
00:21:42.840
during the Cold War.
00:21:44.820
OK?
00:21:45.900
And the Cold War was a war between the Soviet Union
00:21:49.740
and America.
00:21:52.140
And so the Cold War was defined by something called MAD,
00:21:55.380
Mutually Assured Destruction, because both had
00:21:57.720
nuclear weapons.
00:21:58.620
So they didn't really go to war against each other.
00:22:00.580
And so in other words, these bases aren't really
00:22:02.820
meant to defend these nations from other enemies.
00:22:07.260
They're really meant to impose American authority
00:22:10.700
in the Middle East.
00:22:12.820
And it's the idea of this.
00:22:14.520
It's the idea that empire, it is really an image.
00:22:21.440
It is a hallucination.
00:22:22.560
It's just an idea.
00:22:23.860
Empire is an aura of invisibility and inviability, OK?
00:22:28.360
If you fear it, then you obey it.
00:22:31.080
But it's not really designed to fight a war, OK?
00:22:33.880
And so that's why we have this absurd situation.
00:22:36.860
And because there are so many bases in the GCC,
00:22:39.240
that gives the Iranians the perfect pretext to attack them
00:22:42.020
in order to destroy the GCC economy, which
00:22:44.460
will destroy the American empire, right?
00:22:46.960
All right, so this is how the war should bring up, OK?
00:22:49.520
So the red is the Israelis and the Americans.
00:22:52.560
The yellow are the Iranians.
00:22:56.240
And as you can see, the Iranians are attacking everywhere,
00:22:59.900
primarily Israel, OK?
00:23:03.100
But also, as you can see, a lot of focus on Bahrain and Qatar.
00:23:07.260
And again, the intention is to destabilize the economy
00:23:12.600
and the government.
00:23:13.760
It's to try to get as much instability as possible.
00:23:21.000
And as you can see, the Americans and the Israelis
00:23:23.700
are focused on Tehran.
00:23:28.300
And so the Americans and the Israelis
00:23:30.400
use something we call shock and awe.
00:23:32.500
and the very idea of shock and awe is you decapitate the enemy you cut off the head
00:23:42.260
the body will fall down okay what did you say shock and awe was last time it was the strategy
00:23:47.320
used it was developed around the war on terror right shock and awe he said last time yeah 2003
00:23:53.360
u.s changed military action to shock and awe no longer following the old principles using air
00:23:58.420
supremacy intelligence agencies and with hubris and arrogance and American
00:24:04.120
military so I would say just really brutal warfare the problem though is
00:24:12.580
again the Iranians see this as a religious war and so the Iranians have
00:24:16.660
announced total war okay and so what this means is that right now command and
00:24:24.820
control in Iran is decentralized.
00:24:28.820
There's no one person telling everyone what to do.
00:24:31.180
Every region has its own orders, has its own strategy.
00:24:35.260
And so if you knock out Iran, everyone else keeps on going.
00:24:39.160
So if you take off the head, it doesn't change anything.
00:24:43.200
But unfortunately, the Israelis and Americans
00:24:47.740
use this as a military doctrine.
00:24:49.960
Military doctrine just means how to design your military
00:24:53.920
what purpose and so the even though the americans seem like an invincible army they are not equipped
00:25:00.400
to fight a 21st century war against drones against civilization against religious fanatics
00:25:05.600
they're just not but unfortunately because of military doctrine they're going to keep on
00:25:11.760
attacking torrent now the great irony of all this is that the iranians who will be most supportive
00:25:18.000
of you of regime change actually in the if you assassinate khameini so all it does is strengthen
00:25:22.960
the people cities because they were educated they're progressive the people who are most
00:25:27.800
fundamentally against you will fight you to the death are religious fanatics the shia militants
00:25:32.180
living in the rural areas okay updates on the war have happened today also everyone read what
00:25:39.300
updates on the war i've just been doing it what a six-hour stream on it what do you mean what
00:25:43.440
updates on the war you came in now and you want me to stop everything and explain it to you watch
00:25:46.560
the bot a really silly thing where you are actually destroying those who will most likely
00:25:52.440
support you and you're leaving alone those who are most likely to commit jihad against you all right
00:25:59.640
any questions so far guys are you clear all right so another idea that i want you guys to understand
00:26:05.800
is the idea of asymmetry asymmetry all right so what is asymmetry asymmetry means that the two
00:26:14.400
sides are choosing to fight different wars using different techniques because one is much stronger
00:26:21.080
than the other okay america has a great empire it has unlimited resources it has a usd it has
00:26:26.520
it controls the world right iran uh iran is a country that has been under economic sanctions
00:26:31.560
for the past 45 years it's poor its technology is very limited okay but as we learn in this class
00:26:39.160
actually those nations that are poor actually have more energy they're more open and they're
00:26:44.440
more cohesive all right so let me give an example this is what we call the shahad drones shahad drones
00:26:49.800
Each of these drones cost $50,000 at most, okay?
00:26:53.800
At most.
00:26:54.800
It can go as cheap as $35,000 US dollars.
00:26:56.800
But one of them is $50,000.
00:26:58.800
As you can see, you can fit a lot of these drones to a truck that can go anywhere in
00:27:04.800
Iran.
00:27:05.800
And they can hide anywhere.
00:27:06.800
Alright?
00:27:07.800
So the thing to understand is, first of all, these drones are cheap.
00:27:11.800
They're easy to make.
00:27:13.800
They make about $500 a day.
00:27:16.800
okay and that's about there's 80 000 um right now that the iranians have so they've gone for a long
00:27:23.040
long time okay and one of these drones again can knock out a desalination plant it can knock out
00:27:27.760
an oil field it can knock out a hotel it can do a lot of damage okay and it's easily transportable
00:27:35.600
you can hide it anywhere you can you can use it from anywhere okay and that's what the iranians
00:27:40.880
are using as an offensive weapon and how do americans defend against this they use something
00:27:45.600
It's something called a FAD, right?
00:27:49.340
Right guys, this is what they use, FAD.
00:27:52.960
FAD stands for Thermal High Altitude Ear Defense.
00:27:56.480
And they also have like Patriot Systems,
00:27:58.160
there's a lot, okay?
00:27:59.260
The thing that you need to know about the system is,
00:28:02.480
it's really expensive.
00:28:04.180
This missile guys cost one million dollars.
00:28:11.520
One million dollars.
00:28:12.880
So, there's this $50,000 drone coming your way and you throw a million dollar missile
00:28:17.720
at it, okay?
00:28:18.720
And often these missiles miss, so you have to throw two or three missiles at it, okay?
00:28:21.940
So you're spending two to three million dollars on each $50,000 that the Iranians spent.
00:28:27.820
That's kind of silly.
00:28:28.820
Second thing you'll notice is that this thing is really big and really slow.
00:28:35.940
And therefore, you can't really move it around.
00:28:38.880
Therefore, it's pretty easy for the Iranians to spot where this is and attack it.
00:28:43.680
And when these things blow up, that's a lot of money, guys.
00:28:46.880
Okay?
00:28:47.880
Then you're like, but this makes no sense.
00:28:51.880
You know the Iranians have drones.
00:28:53.880
They've had drones for like 10 years.
00:28:55.880
You've also seen drones used in the Russia-Ukraine war to devastating effect.
00:29:00.880
Why don't the Americans know this?
00:29:03.880
Why did they prepare?
00:29:04.880
And again, it has to do with military doctrine.
00:29:07.880
Because military doctrine determines how you fight a war, it determines on your bureaucracy,
00:29:13.200
and it determines how you spend your resources, okay?
00:29:16.200
And unfortunately, the Americans are used to fighting something called the Cold War, right?
00:29:21.800
And the Cold War, you can actually fight the war.
00:29:24.440
You can actually kill each other because then people use nuclear weapons.
00:29:28.740
The Cold War was about flexing.
00:29:33.480
Flexing, okay?
00:29:34.580
You see how big and powerful I am?
00:29:36.940
okay that's all it was these weapon systems are designed to scare the crap
00:29:43.700
out of you they were designed to impress you and as a result they cost a lot of
00:29:48.400
money and they don't do anything all right so that's the entire American
00:29:52.420
military it costs a lot and it doesn't really do anything and it's not resilient
00:29:57.280
it's not innovative it's not open all right also the other thing I have to say
00:30:02.260
this okay is if you look at the military it's corrupt so this is really about
00:30:08.080
corruption so the Americans don't really care about winning a war what they care
00:30:13.320
about is spending as much money as possible because then they get it cut it
00:30:17.260
doesn't make sense right and that's why the Americans are in situation as they
00:30:20.760
are all right let's continue all right so um something that people don't really
00:30:26.260
talk about but you need to understand it's a water issue in the GCC in the
00:30:31.720
the Middle East, in Iraq, all right?
00:30:33.440
So this is a map of the world.
00:30:38.120
And if you are light blue, Brazil, Canada,
00:30:41.300
you have nothing to worry about because you have a lot of water,
00:30:43.620
a lot of fresh water, very little population, all right?
00:30:46.780
There's a lot of people in Brazil.
00:30:48.960
100% water stress just means that you drink as much water
00:30:56.840
as the environment produces, OK?
00:30:59.780
So you want to be below 100% to be sustainable.
00:31:02.960
Ideally, you want to be at 10%, OK?
00:31:06.080
If it goes above 100%, it means that you
00:31:08.600
are drinking more water, using more water,
00:31:10.600
than the environment actually produces.
00:31:12.740
So you're putting stress on the environment.
00:31:16.180
So 200% is really bad, because you're
00:31:20.180
using twice as much water as the environment produces.
00:31:24.220
Guess what, guys?
00:31:25.300
Look at the Middle East, Egypt.
00:31:28.500
6,420 percent.
00:31:32.160
Saudi Arabia, 883 percent.
00:31:38.880
All right, Bahrain, almost 4,000 percent.
00:31:42.340
Dubai, 17,000 percent.
00:31:44.840
What?
00:31:47.040
All right, please.
00:31:50.360
So what is a huge issue?
00:31:52.020
Again, it doesn't matter if Iran kills American soldiers,
00:31:57.180
destroys American military.
00:31:58.080
doesn't have to do that all has to do is destroy the desalination plants and then the gcc is
00:32:02.680
destroyed okay but it's also true that iran imagine the people who have all this dubai real
00:32:09.080
estate how they're feeling right now that makes sense the war is going to be over in 24 hours
00:32:14.500
top core saying 40 it's just a clout chase yeah if you have a bunch of property there i can
00:32:20.400
understand but this is i did not know this about the water supply has water issues 72 percent is
00:32:28.000
pretty bad okay so even though the iranians could destroy maybe my tech
00:32:34.720
teams in israel will save my water supply the gcc much faster than the
00:32:41.140
americans could destroy iran iran is still in trouble okay so so let me give
00:32:45.340
you an example of this this is like i'm sorry sorry so this is another map that
00:32:50.400
shows you uh the issue of water scarcity okay it's just basically the middle east
00:32:54.640
okay their biggest issue in the future is water shia regime are directly responsible for death
00:33:00.880
of millions of muslims they only betray us okay what do you want me to okay what's what's going
00:33:06.680
on right now what's going on right now let's focus on this huh their biggest issue in the future is
00:33:13.020
water okay and that's where the geopolitical tensions will arise in the future over water
00:33:18.540
a lot of people are saying cap you know there could be yeah it's just a separate conversation
00:33:23.980
India is also affected as well, okay?
00:33:26.740
Alright, so let's look at the map, guys.
00:33:31.480
This is called Lake Ermia in northern Iran.
00:33:33.780
It's the sixth largest saltwater lake in the world,
00:33:37.260
or it used to be, okay?
00:33:38.940
This is what it was in 1984.
00:33:41.160
This is the shallow, this is the deep, okay?
00:33:43.760
You guys see that?
00:33:44.680
It's really big, right?
00:33:45.900
20 years later, guys, this is what it looks like.
00:33:51.040
There's no more water here.
00:33:52.340
You can walk from here over to there, okay?
00:33:54.380
There's some water over here, but it's shallow now.
00:33:56.740
That's how serious the water issue is in Iran.
00:33:59.900
And that's the weak point that the Americans
00:34:02.460
and the Israelis will attack, all right?
00:34:04.740
They want to make sure that Iran has no access
00:34:07.380
to fresh water, which will cause devastation
00:34:10.420
in their nation, okay?
00:34:11.940
That's strategy number one.
00:34:12.940
Strategy number two is this.
00:34:15.820
This is a map of the different ethnic minorities
00:34:20.700
in Iran. As you can see, it's a very diverse place. In the center are the Persians, but you also have
00:34:29.200
10 other groups as well. And in the borderlands, it's basically a different country, right?
00:34:35.420
These are basically different countries. And so these places have more common areas with their
00:34:42.400
neighbors than they do with... Oh my God, dude. Okay, well, cry about... I mean, look, if that's true,
00:34:49.040
that's bad but like oh my what do you want me to do you want me to join israel and attack around
00:34:53.280
like what are you talking about iran okay so the second weakness of iran the first of water
00:34:59.440
the second is the ethnic makeup of the country so the strategy of the americans and as you
00:35:04.320
moving forward is destroying iran as a coherent nation state divided into ethnic
00:35:10.480
enclaves fight over water that is the grand plan of the israelis and americans okay
00:35:17.760
all right this is this is this is the vision where persia is limited and then all these other places
00:35:24.080
are sponsored by the americans and the israelis they're giving money they're giving weapons
00:35:28.560
they're giving political support and then this war will wage over water forever okay and this
00:35:35.840
And this is how you destroy Iran
00:35:37.200
and make sure Iran is no longer a viable threat to you.
00:35:40.020
That is the plan of the Americans, okay?
00:35:43.520
As you can see, it's a pretty evil plan.
00:35:46.440
And that's why they have not announced it, right?
00:35:48.820
Because if you announce it, you're like,
00:35:50.600
why are you doing this?
00:35:51.520
What did the Persians, what did they ever do to you
00:35:53.980
to warrant you coming and destroying the civilization?
00:35:56.080
And the answer is nothing, right?
00:35:58.440
So the Americans, Israelis will never admit
00:36:00.120
they're doing this, but if you look at the map
00:36:02.920
of water supply of ethnic tensions,
00:36:06.160
this is the optimal game theory strategy
00:36:08.000
for them to use against Iran.
00:36:09.640
Does that make sense?
00:36:10.480
This is a long-term plan that they have in place.
00:36:13.220
And it's all moving towards this plan.
00:36:15.600
But now the question then is,
00:36:17.660
how can the Iranians respond to this?
00:36:20.060
And the answer is this.
00:36:23.040
This is a map of the Muslim world, okay?
00:36:27.700
So, the light green are the Sunni people, okay?
00:36:34.160
That's 90% of the entire Muslim population,
00:36:36.700
about two billion people, okay?
00:36:38.340
Then you have, in dark green, the Shia.
00:36:42.160
So, as you can see, the main place of the Shia is Iran, okay?
00:36:47.380
Iran is one of the few Shia nations in the world.
00:36:50.640
But you can also see from this map
00:36:52.320
that Shia are spread throughout the world, okay?
00:36:57.060
and so the first thing that the iranians want to do is create a jihad to unite all the shia against
00:37:04.020
american empire right how many allowed the attack to happen let's see so what they want to do is
00:37:10.020
create an uprising it's already happening guys um the shia in pakistan stormed the american embassy
00:37:20.260
in pakistan and the americans killed a lot of people okay the shia have attacked the american
00:37:27.220
embassy in iraq the american embassy uh are being attacked in a lot of places right so the first
00:37:36.340
strategy is to create a international global jihad of the shia against the american empire
00:37:42.980
and it's already happening it will continue for a long long term a long time because the americans
00:37:48.100
have killed the other um okay and that requires vengeance the other thing though is that it can
00:37:57.780
unify the muslim world and it has and we need to get there see people like oh there's sunni she
00:38:04.420
ain't like bro shut up shut up shut up israel or the great satan they want you to be divided right
00:38:13.380
now look at the way pakistan has responded even indian muslims have responded people in yemen
00:38:18.420
people in afghanistan these people unification right now is crucial crucial ignore the differences
00:38:28.980
what is israel doing what's their greater plan focus on the great satan this map most of the
00:38:38.400
is actually run by dictatorships that are not popular at all, okay?
00:38:43.400
And they're allowed to exist because of the American empire, right?
00:38:46.400
You go to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Algeria, these places,
00:38:53.400
they're all run by clients of the American empire.
00:38:56.400
Al-Qaeda.
00:38:57.400
Right? So if you run the people who hate their governments
00:39:01.400
and you overthrow them, then that makes Iran the leader of...
00:39:07.400
of you can unite the islamic world that's just life and call her a they don't okay
00:39:12.920
you know these autistic schizos you're not going to do anything just
00:39:17.640
you're okay just like then go join the go join the jewish supremacist bro have fun world but
00:39:24.520
these the leader of the islamic world that's just shia world but the islamic world let's
00:39:30.680
and let's create something called Pax Isanaka.
00:39:35.160
That is the end goal, guys, okay?
00:39:38.380
If you do that, then you don't have to worry
00:39:41.120
about the Americans and the Israelis anymore, all right?
00:39:43.940
So the Israeli game plan, the American game plan,
00:39:46.500
is to fracture Iran into the ethnic class,
00:39:49.540
and they'll fight over water for the rest of their lives,
00:39:51.240
and they'll all die.
00:39:52.860
The Iranian game plan is to create a religious war,
00:39:56.180
a crusade, that unifies the Shia people
00:39:59.320
that overfroze the broken empire and establishes something called the Pax Isamnaqa, all right?
00:40:04.160
All right, establishes something called the Pax Isamnaqa, all right?
00:40:11.800
Jang!
00:40:13.260
Jang the goat!
00:40:15.360
So again, the key is the GCC, all right?
00:40:23.420
So the game plan is this, you have to destroy the GCC.
00:40:26.080
Why?
00:40:27.080
is the linchpin of the American empire.
00:40:31.720
So what the G.C. does is it sells oil,
00:40:36.260
sells oil, and then for U.S. dollars.
00:40:39.700
Where does it put U.S. dollars?
00:40:40.940
It puts U.S. dollars into the American stock market.
00:40:43.900
All right, so this is investments of the UAE, okay?
00:40:47.060
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait into the U.S. financial markets.
00:40:52.060
can see from 2012 up to today it's been exploding oh my all right so this goes against the theory
00:41:01.580
the gcc keeps saying oh we're neutral we're neutral we're neutral we're neutral but if the
00:41:07.500
entire economy is benefiting what people in iran think is the great satan you can completely
00:41:13.340
understand why they think that they're traitors not only traders are not neutral but siding with
00:41:17.340
the enemy and working for them because the u.s finance market is one of the safest places
00:41:22.940
where you can put your money the intention is this the intention is hey if i cut off oil
00:41:29.660
and these countries no longer have access to u.s dollars they're forced to spend whatever
00:41:34.060
resources they have on protecting themselves okay and then guess what happens the stock market
00:41:38.780
collapses the summer collapses the stock market is the real growth engine of the u.s economy
00:41:44.300
the entire u.s economy collapses with it all right there are about maybe seven companies in
00:41:52.380
uh america that counts for about a quarter of stock market growth okay these seven countries
00:41:56.940
these seven uh companies of course are all ai companies nvidia um um others microsoft google
00:42:06.780
apple okay these are the companies but and then these companies are heavily invested in by the
00:42:10.460
GCC nations. So if these nations are longer able to invest in the stock market, these companies
00:42:16.940
will collapse in value. And with that, that would lead to economic depression in America.
00:42:24.220
Does that make sense? All right, so that is the situation for today. Today was just an overview,
00:42:29.020
guys, okay? I know we covered a lot. I know there's a lot to take in. But over the next few weeks,
00:42:34.220
we will explore each issue um in depth and really understand what's really going on okay
00:42:41.420
all right so any questions guys come on did you think how many allowed this to happen
00:42:49.180
any questions about what we've just learned what are the questions amber ask a question
00:42:53.500
we miss you amber okay bro we got the collab in uh six days italy france china or russia they have
00:43:02.380
have also joined this war like what's the cost of they joined the war because of oil or those
00:43:09.420
resources okay a lot of it's about empire right u.s using nukes will establish them as the big
00:43:19.740
daddy of the world like it did after world war ii russia does not want that china does not want
00:43:24.380
that they want expensive okay so i don't spend too much time on this question because we will
00:43:30.620
explore this question as we move along okay so the question is what brings the world into this
00:43:36.220
conflict and the easy answer is um just oil access energy access okay they need to protect their
00:43:43.260
energy supplies because remember uh it's a very complicated situation because europe is not
00:43:48.060
fighting russia so so europe is not buying any oil resources energy resources from russia therefore
00:43:52.700
depends a lot on the on the gcc so the gcc is not providing them energy then europe will go bankrupt
00:43:58.220
okay so europe needs to enter this war on behalf of americans okay and then you have russia which
00:44:04.220
cannot allow iran to fall because if iran falls then they'll come after russia next
00:44:10.140
right china is actually neutral china's okay with either scenario but that's just the way
00:44:15.500
that the chinese system is set up okay so we're going to explore this question as move along
00:44:19.100
it seems like china's leaning towards iran it seems like china's leaning towards iran but
00:44:24.060
But they probably partially want U.S. to war with Iran so that they both lose power.
00:44:32.060
But it's a very complicated issue.
00:44:36.220
And each nation will have its own different strategic interests to consider.
00:44:42.140
And what we need to know, what we need to figure out is that this war in the Middle East is actually connected to the Ukraine war.
00:44:49.560
And as we move along, I'll show you how these two things connect together.
00:44:53.280
Okay.
00:44:54.820
Any other questions, guys?
00:44:56.240
Amber.
00:44:57.700
Amber, speak up.
00:44:58.600
So, we'll continue this discussion on Thursday, okay?
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Great video.
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I think the major lights, let's quickly go over the notes.
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I'm going to post them in the Twitter community.
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Join Love Speech Now.
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The U.S. Iran War.
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I will format this for...
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professor jane game three iranian state media first denied then admitted khamenei dead
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he died along with his family did not hide in moscow he died like a martyr
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i don't need to put that well bb hiding germany
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god doesn't fit
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shia minority of muslim has always been persecuted jihad sacrificing yourself for your religion
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for iranians this is a war against the great satan this is a fight to death israelis struck
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a girl's school and killed 150 i have seen it's been up to 170 that's why the parentheses
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israel's claim was a misfire but no they love killing kids i'll put that
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according to jang he's saying yids kill kids israelis were showing the world that they are all
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in by bombing that school dubai reputation being the safest city in the world the gcc countries
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the gulf coastal countries under protection of american military the tourist economy focused on
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aviation i'll say gcc run by tourist economy uh tourist economy aviation like emirates emirates
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is a great airline uh it has the busiest airport in the world hopefully dubai
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bus busiest airport in the world flourish under u.s protection gcc claims neutrality but heavily
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allied with u.s iran attacks gcc kuwait bahrain ua qatar airport shut down in dubai after attacks
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rich people spending 250 000 to escape dubai john claims dubai is dead and will not contain
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rich immigrants again gcc will collapse and dubai will go bankrupt 20 of world's oil comes from the
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strait of hormuz india gets 60 of its oil from hormuz iranians close the strait of hormuz
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entire world economy will suffer from strait closing that's why again my theory and it seemed
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like i was vindicated was that venezuela regime change was done to get the oil to supplement the
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loss from the oil in the trade of Hormuz. American empire is based on the petrodollar.
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You have to buy oil based on the petrodollar. GCC and American empire
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based on this oil and petrol. The GCC gets 80% of its food from
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overseas. No food is developed in the region. Trade of Hormuz strangles global
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economy. Iran can hide
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missile bases in its mountainous region. U.S. cannot defend against attacks on U.S.
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military bases. Drones can easily attack oil fields. So they can easily
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get rid of, they could easily destroy the U.S. economy, and U.S. can't do nothing about it.
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60% of the GCC water supply comes from plants. It does not develop any natural water at all.
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It's easy for Iran to attack their water supply. GCC cannot do anything about these attacks. They
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can't actually defend themselves. U.S. slash Israel plan to destroy Iran's water supply. This
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is the other game theory. They plan to get Iranians to starve and have them rebel against
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their own government, or against
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people, because, well,
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I'll say government. This war could be the end of the world.
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GCC is a material
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society compared to jihad Shias
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in Iran.
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The only way
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U.S. Israel could destroy Iran is
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with troops
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on the ground.
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Russia, China
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will get involved if the U.S.
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Israel uses nukes.
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So there's a lot of key players right now.
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Also remind yourself that the U.K., France, Germany, all getting involved as well, saying that they're going to join U.S.-Israel.
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U.S. bases were established in the G.C. to protect the people against monarchy.
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American military was built during the Cold War, M.A.D.
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I don't remember what this stands for.
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What does M.A.D. stand for again?
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What does M.A.D. stand for?
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Empire is an illusion, an idea, not designed to fight a war.
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uh militia uh mutually assured destruction is that i don't believe you
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oh yeah you're right mutually assured destruction
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oh it's just not gonna fit
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military was built
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during Cold War
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Empire solution idea not to sign a fight of war
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US slash Israel focused on Tehran
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shock and awe
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developed after Iraq
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also war on terror
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versus Iranian total war.
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Shock and awe,
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take off the head of the enemy.
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The enemy being Tehran slash Khomeini.
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Capital, the top.
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But the problem is
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U.S. military action
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will make them focus on Tehran.
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Attacking Tehran inspires the rest of Iran.
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Taking off the head
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does not actually help you win.
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The idea of asymmetry,
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both sides choosing to fight
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in different ways.
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Iran been under American sanctions
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for 40 years.
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poor countries are more cohesive compared to materialistic countries uh drones are cheap to
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make 50k iran has 80 000 currently thad is uh thermal air force systems really expensive
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um used by us israel
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thad missiles cost one million dollars each iran uses drones much more cost effective
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thad much harder to transfer around uh compared to cheap drones
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They're very heavy
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Cold War was against
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Cold War was
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The Soviets against the U.S.
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The war was flexing power
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War was flexing their power
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Expensive weapons are designed to scare the women
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Expensive weapons are designed to scare the enemy
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not to be effective in actual warfare.
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Wasting money on expensive equipment and boy beams.
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Corruption.
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Americans don't care about winning.
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Ideally, you consume 10% of your water supply.
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Middle East is consuming 800 to 17,000% of their water supply.
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Lake Ermia, North Iran, depleted of water since the 80s.
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This weak point of Lake Ermia will be attacked by U.S.-Israel.
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Iran is separated by many ethnic groups and regions.
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Different groups of Iran will fight each other over water.
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U.S.-Israel strategy.
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Please fit. There we go.
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U.S.-Israel long-term game plan is to destroy the water to get Iran to fight each other.
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They won't admit this.
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won't admit this because it's reprehensible
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iran strategy to establish global jihad against the great state in most of the muslim world run
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by unpopular dictatorships installed by u.s um iran goal is to unify the muslim world against
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u.s regime through jihad pax islamica united under iran gcc sells oil through the u.s
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dollars to benefit wall street well i said wall street said um u.s stock market
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well wall street's another way to say that i'll just say wall street sure
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stock market collapses uh stock market collapsing would destroy u.s economy
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gcc heavily invests in stock market dominated by ai microsoft apple
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perfect i'm going to post these notes right now great video look forward to our collab real soon
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