SHNEAKO - March 11, 2026


Professor Jiangļ¼š Why Iran is WINNING this War!


Episode Stats

Length

52 minutes

Words per Minute

173.84453

Word Count

9,046

Sentence Count

293

Misogynist Sentences

3

Hate Speech Sentences

74


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 the united states would have to institute a national draft where a young man as young as 18
00:00:05.220 be forced to join the army and be sent to fight in iran okay you already know what to do they
00:00:12.600 show up at those draft papers hello sir are you ready to die for israel no you know what to do
00:00:19.120 don't listen uh what's his name lindsey graham saying your sons and daughters need to die
00:00:22.860 senator of south carolina nope and we might find ourselves in a nuclear apocalypse okay
00:00:27.020 So that's a great concern that everyone has right now.
00:00:30.280 And the third question is the Al-Aqsaq Mosque.
00:00:34.660 This is the third holiest site in the Islamic world.
00:00:39.720 There's Mecca, there's Medina, and there's the Al-Aqsaq Mosque.
00:00:42.420 If the religious Jews, the extremists, destroy the Al-Aqsaq Mosque,
00:00:47.540 then the two billion Muslims in this world would be religiously obligated to go to war against Israel.
00:00:54.960 Okay?
00:00:55.200 so now i want you to understand something which is that for my theory to be valid for my analysis
00:01:05.640 to be valid i have to be i have to correct on all three okay if i miss one then all my theory is
00:01:12.500 wrong i know there's a concern from around the world that nukes will be used and i'm 100 percent
00:01:18.180 parkland that i don't think so either well obviously not 100 but i don't think nukes are
00:01:22.960 going to be used. The threat of Putin, just too much going on. Too many players involved. I think
00:01:27.220 Trump's tempted to do, but he won't do it. But I agree. Al-Aqsa Mosque, they are rubbing their
00:01:32.180 hands together, ready to get that done. So this is a new Jeng lecture on the Iran war. It's called
00:01:37.080 The Law of Escalation. We have another Jeng collab coming in a month. Look forward to it.
00:01:42.440 The last one was great. Let's see if he gets more predictions correct. Predictive history.
00:01:46.420 We continue our analysis of the U.S.-Iran war.
00:01:50.520 And in this war, there are three major questions that will determine the outcome of this war, as well as the world afterwards.
00:01:59.620 These three questions are, number one, will the U.S. launch a ground invasion?
00:02:07.340 Probably.
00:02:07.680 So right now, the United States and Israel are primarily focused on an air war, striking Iran from a distance.
00:02:17.460 In the past, we would call this siege warfare.
00:02:20.380 And as long as it remains an air war, the United States can choose to de-escalate and withdraw from the Middle East.
00:02:27.260 They would lose this war, but the laws would not be catastrophic.
00:02:31.820 Whereas if they choose to launch a ground invasion, it would escalate very quickly and they would be trapped in Iran for the next 5-10 years.
00:02:41.820 It would be a catastrophe whether or not they win or lose.
00:02:45.820 Because in order to fight a ground war, the United States would have to institute a national draft.
00:02:51.820 Where a young man, as young as 18, would be forced to join the army and be sent to fight in Iran.
00:03:01.540 you already know what to do they show up at those draft papers hello sir are you ready to die for
00:03:06.260 israel no you know what to do don't listen uh what's his name lindsey graham saying your sons
00:03:12.340 and daughters need to die senator of south carolina nope no so that's the first big question for us
00:03:18.660 will the united states send in ground troops remember this there's the idea of mission creep
00:03:23.540 where maybe in the beginning you're like i'll send a thousand troops to do a small mission
00:03:28.420 but then it doesn't go well so you said in 2000 okay it slowly creeps up it's what we call mission
00:03:34.020 creep and that's how the united states embroiled itself in vietnam all right so that's the first
00:03:39.160 big question second big question is will nukes be used there's a lot of concern online that israel
00:03:50.020 is repairing a nuclear strike on iran because this really don't like how the war how the war
00:03:55.880 going and they want to reclaim the initiative nukes are a taboo in geopolitics the americans
00:04:05.800 used them at the end of world war ii and no one's used them ever since if israel were to use tactical
00:04:12.280 nuclear weapons they would whoa trisnico thank you for the 50 gifted 50 gifted bang bang bang
00:04:18.520 let's go i appreciate it dawg this universal taboo and we might find ourselves in a nuclear
00:04:24.680 apocalypse okay so that's a great concern that everyone has right now and the third question
00:04:30.520 is the al-Aqsaq mosque this is the third holiest site in the islamic world there's mecca there's
00:04:38.840 medina and there's an al-Aqsaq mosque the muslims believe that it is from the al-Aqsaq mosque in
00:04:44.360 jerusalem where muhammad ascended to heaven and the jews is that true did you get that wrong
00:04:52.040 someone fact check it thank you for the 10 gifted anonymous i appreciate it is that where you said it
00:04:57.400 thank you anonymous yes okay booze believe that the electric mosque sits on the site of their
00:05:04.440 temple which is the house of god so religious Jews extremists want to destroy the electric mosque
00:05:11.400 to rebuild the third temple and if the religious Jews the extremists destroy the asset mosque
00:05:21.960 then the two billion muslims in this world would be
00:05:25.880 religionally obligated to go to war against ishbiel
00:05:29.400 okay so
00:05:41.240 these are the three big questions that um uh will determine how this war will determine
00:05:49.720 the future of the world okay so um in this class i teach you game theory to make predictions about
00:05:57.800 the future so right now i'm going to make three predictions um and then i'm i will show you my
00:06:04.600 analysis as to how i make these predictions okay now what's important to understand is that these
00:06:08.680 are only my guesses based on my analysis and whether or not they try to be correct will
00:06:14.280 determine the validity of my analysis i don't have inside information i don't know more than you do
00:06:19.400 okay i'm just working out of public knowledge yes we knew we know you're a ccp spy who's
00:06:24.360 communicating with demons in order to brainwash the western people to be doomsday cultists we
00:06:30.560 know i'm joking let's see though and doing game theory analysis so according to game theory this
00:06:35.720 is yes the united states will send in ground troops according to game theory this is no
00:06:39.280 and number three is yes okay so what i'm going to do is my next two classes explaining to you
00:06:46.620 my game theory analysis as to how i come to these conclusions and we can watch how world events
00:06:52.740 unfold now i want you to understand something which is that for my theory to be valid for my
00:06:57.800 analysis to be valid i have to be i have to correct on all three okay if i miss one then all my theory
00:07:04.760 is wrong um i know there's a concern from around the world that nukes will be used and i'm 100%
00:07:12.640 parkland that i don't think so either well obviously not 100 but i don't think nukes are
00:07:17.420 going to be used uh threat of putin just too much going on too many players involved i think trump's
00:07:23.220 tempted to but he won't do it but i agree alaksa mosque they are rubbing their hands together ready
00:07:28.860 to get that done nukes will not be used at this time in this war and if i'm wrong i apologize to
00:07:36.900 the world okay but at the same time we'll all be dead anyway so it doesn't really matter all right
00:07:41.440 okay all right so let me explain my analysis okay so remember today what i'm going to do is do number
00:07:48.720 one and number two explain to you why israel will not use nuclear weapons and why there will be a
00:07:52.240 ground invasion and then next class i'll explain number three to you okay that's a plan for this
00:07:58.480 week all right so to understand what's going on i need to i need to teach some basic geopolitical
00:08:06.000 theory okay so in military uh affairs in geopolitics there's a concept called escalation ladder
00:08:11.900 escalation ladder
00:08:13.960 escalation ladder
00:08:18.780 the haters that started to do a coordinated attack on jang they're like he just writes
00:08:27.460 random stuff on the board and then says it so iran is muslim muslim it doesn't do that he writes
00:08:34.480 subjects and it's important the information that's not important although it can be a little messy
00:08:38.260 sometimes it is important the dominant theory is that whoever has estrogen dominance has the most
00:08:45.620 advantage okay so so what this means is let's say you and i get in a fight okay i have a knife you
00:08:50.840 have a gun well gun is more dominant than a knife therefore you have a greater advantage over me
00:08:56.840 and therefore you should win in theory okay and apply to this war in the middle east israel and
00:09:03.500 The United States have exclusion dominance because they have nuclear weapons, and Iran doesn't.
00:09:08.520 Therefore, the United States and Israel have a huge advantage.
00:09:11.760 Wait, but Lindsey Graham told me that Iran had nukes.
00:09:15.700 What?
00:09:16.540 Mark Rubio and Pete Hexat, they said that we can't allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.
00:09:21.420 What?
00:09:21.680 I thought that the Muslims were going to bomb me.
00:09:24.340 What?
00:09:25.700 Over Iran.
00:09:27.640 Okay?
00:09:27.860 But what I will show you today is that this theory is incorrect.
00:09:31.500 It actually doesn't work that way.
00:09:33.220 Right?
00:09:33.500 So let's start off with a very simple example.
00:09:38.380 Let's just say that two people get into a fight, okay?
00:09:40.700 A and B.
00:09:42.640 And how the escalation ladder will work is that maybe A and B run into each other, okay?
00:09:48.560 And then A says, hey man, say sorry.
00:09:50.740 And then B is like, it's not my fault.
00:09:52.400 You say sorry, okay?
00:09:54.160 Professor John is too smart and too late to joke with, and honestly, I think he's the most accurate.
00:10:00.080 Yeah, I joked around with him.
00:10:01.480 He's funny.
00:10:01.800 small conflict no one knows uh why and no one knows who's at fault okay so they start
00:10:06.500 cursing each other okay so the first step is a conflict chad who does this remind you of
00:10:11.220 second step is they start cursing each other right screw you yeah screw you and then they might start
00:10:18.940 pushing each other right push push and then they hit each other okay punch punch and then they start
00:10:28.960 the fight and then one pulls out a knife and the other pulls out a gun all right and then b shoots
00:10:35.780 dead a fight over right okay so there are certain things that we need to keep in mind about this
00:10:42.980 example first of all the fight is not contained in its yo it's easy to go is that drake what the
00:10:48.460 whoa think of it 50 gifted bang 50 gifted holy moly back to back bro appreciate it big time let's go
00:10:55.940 nice because you never i really don't get that many gifted in the chat i appreciate you big time
00:11:01.340 thank you about this example first of all the fight is not contained in itself okay you cannot
00:11:09.720 perceive this game as just one between a and b who's physically stronger there are other players
00:11:15.460 involved as well okay so for example there are spectators or friends there's a crowd watching
00:11:22.700 you okay it's important because there's also the police right eventually the police will come
00:11:29.100 um the government and they'll ask people hey what happened man whose fault was it
00:11:32.700 right and also for people who are religious there's also god right if you die you have
00:11:37.660 to go up to god heaven and god's gonna ask you hey man how did you die so you have to explain
00:11:42.540 how you died all right so in other words in this escalation ladder there are three factors that
00:11:48.380 you have to consider that drive people up this escalation ladder okay can you guys let me lock
00:11:52.940 in on the lecture oh my god thank you thank you keep on gifting thank you so much anonymous thank
00:11:59.100 you these three factors are of course emotions second uh is power and the third is reason or
00:12:09.260 logic okay and what drives people up is adrenaline in other words it's impossible to go to skip
00:12:18.300 escalation ladder right you don't go from like hey screw you to like the guy pulling out a gun
00:12:21.900 and shooting you okay you have to go step by step by step because adrenaline is rushing in your
00:12:26.540 system and this adrenaline it's making you more angry but it's also making you stronger and more
00:12:31.660 resolved and it's also telling you how to fight this battle okay and the thing to remember about
00:12:38.780 this is this is really important is that it's not about how fast you climb up the escalation ladder
00:12:44.780 okay if you get too angry and you over react then you are at fault right what you want to do is
00:12:51.180 climb it up straight you can't spike cortisol first so everyone is going to think that you
00:12:55.100 got frame mauled by iran strategically and that means you have to remain calm and controlled
00:13:00.300 because if you remain calm controlled you have three advantages over your opponent the first is
00:13:06.780 um focus second is who's going to win the gift war anonymous or trizzy the goat
00:13:12.060 Who's going to win?
00:13:15.060 The third is focus, you're clear and resolve.
00:13:22.060 Sorry, resolve.
00:13:23.060 What this means is that you know what you're doing.
00:13:26.060 You have a strategy.
00:13:27.060 You're clear about how to achieve your strategy and your goal.
00:13:30.060 And you're determined to achieve it.
00:13:32.060 But in order to have all three, you have to remain calm.
00:13:35.060 And therefore, you need to control yourself as you climb up this escalation ladder.
00:13:40.060 Remember, it's just not about being your opponent.
00:13:42.180 It's about justifying yourself to your friends, to the police, and to God as well.
00:13:47.800 Because you might hit that person, he might go to the hospital, and you've won the fight,
00:13:51.100 but then you go to prison for 10 years, in which case, you've lost the fight.
00:13:55.260 Thank you again for the fire.
00:13:56.380 Thank you.
00:13:57.440 Thank you.
00:13:57.660 Thank you.
00:13:57.880 Thank you.
00:13:57.900 Thank you.
00:13:57.920 Thank you.
00:13:57.940 Okay.
00:13:59.400 All right.
00:13:59.940 Thank you so much, brother.
00:14:00.540 So, the main idea I want you to remember is this, and this is the law of escalation.
00:14:04.140 I'm Nathan.
00:14:04.480 and this is a very important idea in my game theory model control is more important than
00:14:14.480 dominance okay control is more important than dominance why because control is the idea of
00:14:22.780 calibration calibration means that you time or you structure or you strategize your response
00:14:31.180 in a way that helps you achieve your strategic objective okay you're not just throwing punches
00:14:36.540 you're throwing a punch in a certain way that allows you to defend yourself that strikes fear
00:14:42.380 an opponent and also allows you to seem as the good guy among spectators okay and then when the
00:14:50.300 police come you can justify why you threw that punch in a certain way to the police so that you
00:14:53.900 don't go to jail okay thanks you're right all right so another way of saying this is that
00:14:58.060 calibration is ultimately about strategic flexibility and the idea of strategic flexibility
00:15:05.660 is in a fight the person who has the most options the person who has the most special strategy will
00:15:15.100 usually win the fight okay there's a lot of escalation and i'll explain to you how this
00:15:19.740 applies to the u.s iran war okay okay all right so before i actually talk about the war what i
00:15:26.700 what i want to do is do is what i want to do is do a thought experiment to examine how we can
00:15:31.900 understand what's going on between united states and iran okay so let's do a thought experiment
00:15:35.980 and the thought experiment is this all right jang let's just say that there's a bully okay
00:15:40.300 and he's the biggest guy in the school and he has a gang okay these are his friends
00:15:47.500 and there's like uh maybe four of them and so what they do is they basically prey on
00:15:55.340 everyone at the school okay and there's gonna be a hundred people at the school
00:15:58.640 all right and so what they do is they make everyone in the cafeteria pay a tax
00:16:08.480 okay go in the cafeteria and eat you have to pay a tax
00:16:11.720 maybe a dollar who knows okay Chad this school is called Hustlers University
00:16:15.780 the friends of a bully go collect a tax and then give him all the money okay and
00:16:21.620 and that is the structure of the school,
00:16:24.160 where if you want to eat lunch in the cafeteria,
00:16:26.600 you have to pay a tax,
00:16:28.100 and the bully's friends collect the money,
00:16:29.780 and the bully shares the money amongst his gang, okay?
00:16:33.960 Now, at first, people are okay with the system
00:16:36.500 because they think that it's actually beneficial
00:16:38.420 because the bully is keeping the peace and order
00:16:41.140 in the cafeteria, right?
00:16:42.240 He's keeping everyone safe.
00:16:43.240 So yeah, I pay a dollar, but it's not that much money,
00:16:45.900 and we're all safe so that we can all enjoy our lunch
00:16:49.080 in peace in the cafeteria, okay?
00:16:50.780 But no.
00:16:51.300 But then what happens over time is that the bully gets more and more arrogant because he feels invincible.
00:16:58.400 Everyone just obeys him.
00:16:59.520 So he develops the idea of hubris.
00:17:01.780 Hubris.
00:17:02.580 And the idea of hubris is that no one has the courage to challenge me.
00:17:07.660 Everyone's afraid of me, and therefore I can do what I want.
00:17:09.920 So what does he do?
00:17:10.440 Well, the first thing he does is that he charges more money from everyone, okay?
00:17:16.020 So the tax goes up.
00:17:17.440 And so people are disgruntled about this.
00:17:20.780 They don't understand why they're paying more to the bully, okay?
00:17:25.020 But knowing that, what he will also do is pay less money to his friends
00:17:29.820 so that he can have more money because he wants to buy a car
00:17:31.740 or he wants to go to Paris for the summer, okay?
00:17:34.340 Does that make sense?
00:17:35.340 Okay, so everyone's not happy about this,
00:17:39.000 but this is the reality that they live in,
00:17:41.560 and there's nothing they can do about it.
00:17:43.120 And so people just put up with it.
00:17:44.860 One day, a new kid comes into school, okay?
00:17:47.980 The new kid.
00:17:48.500 I feel like I've seen this movie.
00:17:50.780 and he doesn't really understand the rules of the game it's like star wars and he doesn't know
00:17:56.700 he's supposed to pay a tax right so the bully's friend comes over and says hey man where's the
00:18:01.200 dollar and he's like what dollar i just got here and he refuses to pay and so what they decide to
00:18:06.340 do is teach him a lesson by ostracizing him by making him sit alone by himself in the couch
00:18:10.880 this is the plot of godfather 2 where vito corleone is in little italy in new york city
00:18:16.080 and there's a mob boss who wants to take tax from everybody and he's harassing deli owners
00:18:22.480 and getting people fired so that he can employ his own nephew at the store
00:18:25.800 and then actually vito corleone says enough is enough and he tracks down that mob boss
00:18:31.120 and he makes him sleep with the fishes terrier okay you have no friends because you don't know
00:18:38.240 the rules and you refuse to play along and the new kid is like i don't care i'm happy not having
00:18:42.420 and his friends, okay?
00:18:44.040 And so then the bully and his friends start to discuss,
00:18:47.240 how can we get this new kid to play along?
00:18:51.220 And so they decide what they're gonna do is
00:18:53.400 they're going to curse him, they're gonna bully him, okay?
00:18:56.220 So the new kid goes to lunch and he's eating his lunch
00:18:59.060 and the friends come down and start to curse him.
00:19:00.760 He says, you're a wimp, do you wanna fight us?
00:19:02.880 And what the new kid does is he just ignores these guys.
00:19:06.980 And these guys are like, what's going on, man?
00:19:08.700 Why is he afraid of us?
00:19:09.860 and slowly what happens is that the other people the other kids recognize that wow maybe it is
00:19:16.740 possible to rebel against the bully maybe it is possible these stupid taxes and so they start
00:19:24.260 talking to him secretly okay they give him presents they start to say smile at him and say hi to him
00:19:30.340 okay but the new kid just ignores everything right and then the friends are like you know what we
00:19:36.820 don't actually benefit this much from this relationship anyway maybe if we appoint this
00:19:41.700 new kid as the new bully the new boss he'll treat us better and then you have other friends who are
00:19:48.020 like you know what this bully he's he's fat he's ugly maybe i should be the boss okay so just you
00:19:55.220 guys think this is a jang therapy session this is not his origin story because the new kid comes in
00:20:00.580 doesn't know the rules and he's willing to challenge the reality challenge the assumptions
00:20:05.620 the values of this cafeteria now there's dissent now there's rebellion going on okay and different
00:20:11.460 people are talking to him and um trying to form alliances with him but what he does and it's
00:20:19.060 really interesting is that he just ignores everyone and keeps focused okay and then one day
00:20:25.060 um the police friend comes over and says you know what you're a whip and the new kid finally says
00:20:30.740 i'm not afraid of you okay and this friend goes back and tells his boss hey this new kid said he's
00:20:35.540 not afraid of you man what do you do about it now nope and the bully gets really angry and says i'm
00:20:39.380 going to go punch his face okay so the bully goes in front of new kid and says if you don't apologize
00:20:46.740 i'm going to punch you in the face and the kid's like what did i do wrong what should i apologize
00:20:51.220 for and the bully's kind of confused so he goes away comes out next day and says you're apologizing
00:20:55.220 What's happening now, man?
00:20:56.380 And the kid's like, okay, for what?
00:20:59.000 Tell me to apologize for what?
00:21:00.460 And this goes on for a long time, okay?
00:21:02.240 And then eventually, the bully gets so pissed off
00:21:04.760 that he punches the new kid in the face, okay?
00:21:07.040 So he started it.
00:21:07.880 The new kid, he's hurt, but he decided to punch
00:21:11.800 the bully back in the face, okay?
00:21:13.200 And the bully's stronger, so he beats the bully up.
00:21:15.220 He beats up the new kid.
00:21:17.060 But what's happened now is that everyone in the school
00:21:20.140 has seen that the bully is not that strong.
00:21:23.460 seen that the bully is actually pretty weak and so they recognize that hey if we stand alongside
00:21:30.180 the new kid we can beat the bully all right and eventually what happens is the bully is defeated
00:21:39.380 doesn't make sense to you guys all right so certain things to understand is that yes
00:21:45.780 the bully has escalation dominance because he's stronger in the school he can beat up everyone
00:21:50.740 but what wins the fight is control what wins the fight is collaboration sorry
00:21:56.260 calibration should you flexibility the fact that the new kid has many different
00:22:01.600 options and he's picking the option that is most strategic advantage to him okay
00:22:07.020 now what you will notice from this example is the bully doesn't have that
00:22:11.060 many options actually because this sounds very familiar oh it sounds very
00:22:17.680 very familiar don't you think i'm just gonna say i didn't do it i'm just gonna say that i didn't
00:22:22.140 play the song i don't find the song funny i didn't think it was appropriate to do you gotta
00:22:26.200 sacrifice that title and this will tard it this is not funny this is horrible guess you're not
00:22:29.940 top g anymore stole that shit i'm top g nigga i talk facts
00:22:33.100 he needs to maintain the idea of face or credibility right stole it
00:22:47.680 this is the essence of his power his power lies on the fact that if you don't listen to him
00:22:55.300 if you don't obey him he will come and beat the crap out of you right that's credibility
00:22:59.620 but the moment that you show that it's actually it's actually not that big of a deal to be
00:23:04.920 punched by him he's not that strong then he loses all credibility okay which means that he either
00:23:10.240 retreats or he's forced to strike harder to kill you okay to maintain his credibility so another
00:23:16.500 saying this is that um by calibrating your movements strategically you can manipulate the
00:23:25.140 bully into self-destruction doesn't make sense you guys all right any questions okay so that's
00:23:34.020 a theory all right so now what we're gonna do is we're gonna apply this theory the law of escalation
00:23:40.660 to what's happening in the middle east okay we're gonna do why are you guys saying pre-watch dude
00:23:45.220 shut up like when when would i have any time to pre-watch this when i'm live literally almost
00:23:49.860 every waking moment of every day do that by looking at the escalation ladders of both iran
00:23:54.740 and the united states yes shooby he has students there you don't know amber okay
00:24:03.780 this is the u.s this is iran okay so let's look at the escalation ladder so the first thing the
00:24:10.260 united states does of course is something called decapitation what is decapitation
00:24:14.100 decapitation is like I just kill your leaders you don't have any more leaders
00:24:17.220 and therefore you don't know what to do and therefore you surrender okay that's
00:24:21.180 the first thing the US did it didn't work so now the United States is doing is
00:24:24.660 attacking military target air defense and military bases okay that's the second
00:24:32.460 second step and the idea is that you beat the crap out of the military so they
00:24:37.320 surrender but that didn't work either okay so then what you do next of course
00:24:41.580 is economic embargo where you basically prevent Iran from trading with the world
00:24:50.640 right prevent Iran from selling oil to China basically by blockading the seas
00:24:55.460 and the idea here is that if the government doesn't have any money paid
00:24:59.100 soldiers its soldiers will just not fight okay but that didn't but that's not
00:25:03.840 working either so then what you do of course is you attack civilian
00:25:08.540 infrastructure okay which is probably water and oil and desalination so you
00:25:14.640 may have seen the news that this release attacked an oil depot in Tehran and now
00:25:19.580 you look if you look at a picture of Tehran it's all black okay and this is a
00:25:22.760 war crime or this goes against international law because you're attacking civilians
00:25:26.060 but that's what you do when you feel as though you need to apply more pressure to
00:25:30.660 win this war okay and so you can keep on escalating and then what you do is that
00:25:38.100 Now that you've attacked the civilians and they still refuse to surrender, what you do now is you use secret weapons.
00:25:47.100 The boy beam.
00:25:48.100 Secret weapons might be advanced missiles that no one's ever seen before.
00:25:51.100 Boy beam.
00:25:52.100 And the point of these secret weapons is to scare the crowd out of people and say, you see how dominant we are?
00:25:57.100 If that doesn't work, then what you do next is use biological and chemical weapons.
00:26:02.100 Biochemical weapons.
00:26:04.100 doesn't work either then guys nuclear weapons all right so what's really important for us to
00:26:13.540 understand is that you must follow this escalation ladder if you are to use nuclear weapons and the
00:26:19.240 reality is that first of all we have not seen secret weapons we have not seen biochemical weapons and
00:26:24.700 therefore no no they use the goi beam did they not they use the goi beam weapons comes later okay
00:26:30.340 unless I see our chemical weapons being used I refuse to believe the nuclear
00:26:34.480 weapons is on the table okay all right so I think we are here which is the
00:26:38.740 beginning of attacks on civilian infrastructure but already we're seeing
00:26:44.060 arguments in the American political system against the use of weapons
00:26:49.780 against civilians okay the reason why is that if you do this okay if you destroy
00:26:54.580 civil infrastructure you unite the people behind the government because the
00:26:59.320 The idea is that you use airstrikes to split apart the government and the people, and you
00:27:03.780 want people to overthrow the government for you, okay?
00:27:05.560 Didn't work.
00:27:06.560 That's the idea here.
00:27:08.640 So we are at this stage, meaning that we have a long way to go before we hit nuclear weapons,
00:27:13.320 okay?
00:27:14.320 All right.
00:27:15.320 So now let's look at the Iranian escalation ladder.
00:27:19.680 So what's happening is that in the beginning, Iran does two major things, okay?
00:27:27.720 The first is attack military targets, okay?
00:27:31.720 GCC.
00:27:32.720 And what they're basically targeting are U.S. radar systems and air defenses.
00:27:36.720 Because once these two things go, then Iran can attack whatever it wants, okay?
00:27:41.840 It's also close to Strait of Hormuz, all right?
00:27:49.520 And by closing Strait of Hormuz, you put pressure on the economies of the GCC, as well as East
00:27:54.720 Asia.
00:27:55.720 that by locating the economies, the GCC, UAE, Saudi Arabia,
00:28:02.000 Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, will put pressure on Donald Trump
00:28:04.320 to end this war as quickly as possible.
00:28:05.960 Also, East Asia receives most of its oil
00:28:09.940 from the GCC, from the Gulf of Hormuz, right?
00:28:11.640 So China gets about 40% of its oil,
00:28:13.400 Japan gets 75%, that's a lot of oil.
00:28:16.220 So the hope is that these countries
00:28:17.580 will put pressure on the United States
00:28:18.940 to end this war as soon as possible, okay?
00:28:20.540 So that is the Iranian strategy.
00:28:23.160 But if they're forced to go up the escalation ladder,
00:28:25.440 What will happen is this.
00:28:26.460 If you attack...
00:28:27.280 Someone said straight whore moose, you stupid...
00:28:30.160 Bro, it's straight whore moose, not whore moose, idiot.
00:28:33.080 Their economy, they will attack your economy as well, okay?
00:28:35.780 With missiles.
00:28:36.860 Basically targeting oil fields.
00:28:39.840 If you attack your civilian infrastructure,
00:28:41.540 they will attack your civilian infrastructure as well.
00:28:43.360 And what is the main weakness in these GCC countries?
00:28:45.780 Desalination plants, okay?
00:28:47.220 Desalination plants.
00:28:50.900 And that's it, okay?
00:28:52.000 That's the extent of the Iranian escalation ladder because it doesn't have nuclear weapons.
00:28:58.820 It doesn't have chemical weapons.
00:29:00.780 No, Hank Shuck told me they do.
00:29:02.840 Shuck told me that BB-9 Yahoo, thank you BB, he told me they have a nuclear.
00:29:08.320 They told me they have a nuclear.
00:29:10.220 It doesn't have intercontinental missiles that they can target the United States with.
00:29:14.880 So as you can see, oh, the U.S. and Israel have escalation dominance
00:29:18.860 because they can go way up higher in the escalation ladder than Iran.
00:29:24.420 But that's the wrong way to understand this, okay?
00:29:28.020 Because if you look at their strategies, Iran has much more flexibility,
00:29:32.620 much more calibration than the United States, okay?
00:29:36.020 When the United States attacks you, it's pretty blunt.
00:29:38.660 But look, by close to the Strait of Hormuz, I can be strategic in how I close to the Strait of Hormuz.
00:29:42.900 For example, if you're a Chinese ship, I'll let you pass.
00:29:45.840 For example, if you are a GCC nation and you want to bribe me,
00:29:49.320 if you want to pay me a tax, I'll let you pass as well.
00:29:51.780 If you're a GCC nation and you're like, you know what, forget the United States,
00:29:54.620 I want to be a friend of Iran, I'll let you pass as well.
00:29:56.720 You understand?
00:29:57.440 So by closing all the straddle moves, it creates a calibration strategy.
00:30:01.500 It allows Iran to selectively and strategically apply pressure
00:30:05.720 to the friends of the United States so that they become the friends of Iran.
00:30:10.300 okay same thing with these drone strikes against oil fields and military targets right
00:30:18.540 if you attack me i attack you with drones but if you don't attack me then i don't attack you
00:30:23.180 okay so in other words okay this is a really important idea the u.s
00:30:31.100 and iran have different military decision trees
00:30:36.700 okay all right so let me explain how because the united states and israel they're just attacking
00:30:43.980 iran okay and they attack with air power so that's very blunt right okay so you go from one step to
00:30:50.600 the next to the next to the next okay this is this classic escalation ladder iran is not like this
00:30:56.380 their decision tree is different okay because their strategy is to force the united states to
00:31:02.280 to admit defeat and retreat from the GCC, okay?
00:31:06.380 To close down the military bases in the Middle East
00:31:08.400 so that Iran has control over the certain moves
00:31:10.680 and therefore it can control all world trade, all right?
00:31:13.980 So that's the strategy.
00:31:14.840 So this strategy means that you have different options,
00:31:18.600 all right?
00:31:19.440 Your options are attack Israel,
00:31:24.520 your military targets, civilian targets, Tel Aviv, okay?
00:31:28.840 All right, so I don't wanna spend too much time on this,
00:31:30.540 But as you can see, if you think about it, Iran can be much more selective in its targeting than the United States and Israel.
00:31:39.340 And therefore, the options that it has, it is much more diverse, which gives Iran escalation control over the situation.
00:31:50.520 Do you guys understand this?
00:31:51.860 All right. So let's look at why Iran has advantages over the escalation ladder.
00:31:59.200 Okay?
00:32:00.040 U.S., Iran.
00:32:04.160 The first major difference is that Iran is active,
00:32:10.980 whereas the U.S. is passive, okay?
00:32:14.120 Another thing is, go back to the bully example,
00:32:15.860 where the bully has to maintain credibility.
00:32:18.280 He has to show that he's more powerful
00:32:19.900 than the other kids, right?
00:32:21.760 So if you provoke him, he has no choice in the matter
00:32:24.340 but to hit you, okay?
00:32:26.100 But you, the new kid, can choose whether or not to provoke him or not.
00:32:31.660 You can choose the timing of when to provoke him.
00:32:33.780 Therefore, you are active, okay?
00:32:36.560 The second big difference is that Iran has a clear strategy.
00:32:41.640 It knows what it wants to accomplish, and it knows how to accomplish what it wants.
00:32:46.980 Remember, what Iran wants is control the struggle moves, and the United States out of the Middle
00:32:51.520 East.
00:32:52.520 That's what it wants to do.
00:32:53.520 And it's calibrating it.
00:32:54.520 Banju, thank you for the five. What do you name is Banju for, bro? Thank you for the five.
00:32:58.380 It attacks in a certain way to achieve this end goal, and it's working out very well for Iran, okay?
00:33:03.440 The United States, on the other hand, doesn't know what it wants. It wants to destroy Iran.
00:33:06.520 What does that mean, okay? Destroy. It could mean regime change. It could mean economy collapses.
00:33:12.900 It could mean the civilian population starves, okay? It could mean anything.
00:33:16.560 But because there's so much ambiguity, so much confusion about what it means, it confuses military strategy, right?
00:33:22.640 And the last thing is, of course, is that Iran is flexible, and the United States is inflexible.
00:33:32.520 Okay?
00:33:33.660 So by studying the escalation ladder, we discover that Iran has far more advantages than the United States.
00:33:41.720 Okay?
00:33:42.540 All right.
00:33:43.060 So what does this mean?
00:33:45.860 All right.
00:33:46.640 It means that Iran will probably win this war, ultimately.
00:33:50.280 But it has to be major changes to a society in order to win this one.
00:33:57.100 So remember, to win a fight, you have to have three things.
00:34:00.680 Focus, clarity, and resolve.
00:34:09.640 All right?
00:34:11.120 You have to know what your purpose is.
00:34:12.640 You have to know how to achieve it.
00:34:14.980 You have to be determined to achieve it, okay?
00:34:16.820 So what does this mean for the Middle East?
00:34:19.640 What does it mean for Iran?
00:34:21.280 First thing is focus means unity.
00:34:23.900 Meaning that you have to unite your population,
00:34:27.420 which means basically crushing all dissent.
00:34:30.420 We can't argue anymore.
00:34:31.460 We have to unify for a purpose, okay?
00:34:35.300 The second thing, clarity, is to censor people.
00:34:39.780 Censorship.
00:34:40.920 And we're already seeing that in Israel
00:34:42.740 where you're not allowed to film military strikes.
00:34:46.820 If a drone comes and attacks Tel Aviv in Israel, you cannot film that and put it on social media.
00:34:51.820 The government will come and arrest you. Same thing in Dubai.
00:34:54.820 You cannot show Dubai being attacked, so massive censorship is going on.
00:34:58.820 And resolve just means militarization, where the Middle East moves towards total war.
00:35:04.820 Total war just means that every citizen now is recruited into the war effort.
00:35:09.820 It just means that the entire economy is geared towards war.
00:35:13.820 Can you move or I can see?
00:35:14.820 and um one last point i'll make is this what we need to understand about the escalation ladder
00:35:19.580 is that as it moves up we have to remember that this war is being fought multi-dimensionally
00:35:25.400 okay really dude you just said total war you racist stupid idiot what does that mean it means
00:35:31.720 that the military is just one dimension but there are four major dimensions there are others but
00:35:37.580 let's focus on four major dimensions okay the first major dimension is narrative narrative
00:35:43.180 is basically world opinion second is political political just means the relationship of nations
00:35:51.740 to each other the relationship of the need of the government to the people okay political
00:35:55.180 the third dimension is economical economic and the fourth is military what's really important
00:36:02.940 to understand is that the military dimension is probably the least important there are other
00:36:06.700 dimensions that are much more important therefore these four factors determine how the united states
00:36:12.700 and iran move up the escalation ladder okay because your purpose is to control the narrative
00:36:18.540 and justify why you're doing what you're doing uh political means you still maintain good
00:36:23.660 relations with other states right so as the united states is fighting this war against iran
00:36:28.380 the united states is still talking to china yes it's still talking to russia yeah so that
00:36:34.220 discussion the political discussion determines the contours of this fight economic means that
00:36:39.820 as this fight is still happening nations are still trading with each other and that factors
00:36:44.220 into how the military is fought okay does that make sense so i know this is very complicated
00:36:49.500 but you need you need to understand how complicated war is it's as simple as saying you know what
00:36:53.420 let's nuke that guy doesn't work that way okay there are a lot of constraints there's a lot of
00:36:57.260 factors a lot of stakeholders involved to constrain the use of nukes okay all right all right so let's
00:37:04.860 now discuss ground troops all right the first question we look at is will ground troops be used
00:37:10.300 and the answer unfortunately is yes they have to be used and it has to do with how the military
00:37:15.740 works okay of how wars are fought basically when you fight a war you have to have a correct
00:37:22.540 cost pyramid okay and the most simple cost pyramid okay is is this infantry soldiers okay
00:37:35.500 all right they're the bottom why because they're the cheapest what about them armor us goyim
00:37:42.300 we're the cheapest of the bunch huh okay artillery tanks
00:37:47.820 they're more expensive to produce you need more resources you need more time
00:37:50.620 then you have naval right then you have ear it doesn't make sense this is the cost pyramid
00:37:58.080 and cost pyramid just is this question like how much energy how much time how much resources do
00:38:03.920 you need to produce a certain product okay it costs you very little to produce a soldier but
00:38:08.460 it costs you a lot to produce an airplane this is important because wars are usually wars of
00:38:12.740 attrition meaning that you have to put all your resources in to win the war okay so this is just
00:38:18.080 production capacity. And this is the most standard model that you have of a class
00:38:25.760 pyramid for a military war. Does that make sense guys? The problem is that the
00:38:30.680 United States have an inverse pyramid, meaning that here is what's
00:38:36.800 dominant, then naval, then armor, then soldiers. You can't fight a war like this.
00:38:45.840 I mean the moment you choose to fight a war like this you've lost the war because you either take
00:38:51.060 out the country in like two days or you scoot over but you cannot replenish your forces now
00:38:56.400 I I know this is hard to understand but 1991 the Persian Gulf War 2003 the Iraq War these are not
00:39:03.000 real wars okay because Americans were so dominant and Iraq was so weak that was basically a video
00:39:08.760 game all right because it's these these pilots flying around is bombing everything okay you look
00:39:13.020 the white house propaganda they're trying to make it the same thing right now showing depictions of
00:39:17.100 literal call of duty memes of them bombing iran and tehran the capital making baseball and football
00:39:23.940 memes they're trying to turn it into a video game the same way the iraq war was fought okay it's
00:39:27.580 like guys in tanks just running over the iraqi army those were just video games but this iran
00:39:33.200 thing is a real war and therefore you cannot fight a war like this if you want to win this war
00:39:39.200 the only thing you can do is return to a realistic cost pyramid.
00:39:45.520 You don't have a choice in the matter, right?
00:39:47.340 Because, again, your cheapest product are soldiers, right?
00:39:53.940 And the most expensive are airplanes.
00:39:55.620 You cannot afford to use an airplane in order to save the life of a soldier.
00:40:00.700 Eventually, this cost-benefit analysis will blow up on you, okay?
00:40:05.420 Does that make sense, guys?
00:40:06.260 all right so the United States wants to win this war then it has no choice but
00:40:10.700 to use ground troops to use soldiers as the main force of its military any
00:40:17.300 questions so far all right okay now the question then is will the United States
00:40:22.940 use ground troops I already said that if the United States is to win this war
00:40:26.760 that's no choice but to use ground troops but will the United States use ground
00:40:30.800 troops and a lot is determined by the game theory strategies of the different
00:40:34.940 okay so let's look at goyim duty the four major players in this war you have US
00:40:46.760 you have Israel you have Saudi Arabia and you have Iran okay all right so the
00:40:56.000 United States and Iran they're pretty easy to understand what the United States
00:40:58.520 wants to do is destroy Iran okay why he's going to destroy Iran the United States
00:41:08.120 would have complete control over Middle East oil and it'll control global trade
00:41:12.760 for the Strait of Hormuz and therefore the United States can maintain its
00:41:15.320 empire okay so a really simple objective let's destroy Iran we don't care how we
00:41:19.100 don't care why let's just go do it okay Iran has another strategy which is
00:41:23.320 control straight-up moves and destroy CENTCOM. CENTCOM is basically the American
00:41:34.660 military in the Middle East called Central Command. So those are two major
00:41:37.060 military objectives of Iran. And we can understand why. Because if CENTCOM is
00:41:40.900 destroyed, Iran has complete control over the Middle East. Now Dubai, now Oman,
00:41:47.580 Iran, Kuwait, had to pay taxes to Iran.
00:41:51.760 Now Iran, the new kid, is now the bully of the Middle East.
00:41:55.020 That's a hegemon.
00:41:56.100 That is the political objective of this war.
00:42:00.420 Israel is a bit more complicated.
00:42:03.520 For Israel, oh sorry, sorry, sorry,
00:42:05.480 one other thing is humble Israel.
00:42:10.420 That's the other thing, because even if you defeat
00:42:12.220 the United States, you start to deal with Israel.
00:42:13.960 And Israel is a great military power of the Middle East.
00:42:15.940 So you want to humble them, you want to weaken them.
00:42:17.600 You can't destroy Israel,
00:42:18.860 because Israel has nuclear weapons, right?
00:42:21.560 You piss off Israel, those nukes start flying.
00:42:23.520 You don't want that, all right?
00:42:24.540 So those are the three major political objectives for Iran.
00:42:27.660 Control the server moves, destroy CENTCOM,
00:42:29.420 and humble Israel, okay?
00:42:30.640 If you are Israel, actually for you,
00:42:34.840 the strategy is different.
00:42:35.900 What you wanna do is this.
00:42:36.740 You want to destroy CENTCOM,
00:42:41.620 and destroy Iran.
00:42:44.740 Okay?
00:42:45.520 It's funny. Americans don't understand that Israel and Iran actually do have similar
00:42:49.840 objectives. They both want to destroy CENTCOM. Israel does not care about Americans. They don't
00:42:54.720 care about CENTCOM. They don't care about the American presence in the Middle East.
00:42:59.180 In fact, Jeng claims that Israel has a much stronger military than the world knows and that
00:43:04.940 it doesn't actually need the U.S. as much as they claim. And so they're kind of a double agent.
00:43:10.140 They're pretending like they need the U.S., but they really want to destroy the U.S. so they
00:43:13.720 could get the frick out of the Middle East. Why? Because if you destroy both of the United States.
00:43:17.980 What's CENTCOM? CENTCOM is Central Command. It's like the military bases in the Middle East.
00:43:21.860 If you destroy Iran, then you are the sole hegemon in the Middle East, okay? Also destroy the GCC.
00:43:30.560 Another. Destroy Saudi Arabia as well. Why? Because once Saudi Arabia is destroyed,
00:43:35.600 all its resources belong to you, okay? And this creates something called the Greater Israel
00:43:38.980 Project, which is what we'll discuss next class. But as you can see, what's really important is
00:43:43.520 that even though the United States and Israel are allies, their optimal strategy is different.
00:43:49.200 Their objectives are different.
00:43:50.700 In fact, they're in conflict.
00:43:51.700 Okay?
00:43:52.700 Then you have Saudi Arabia.
00:43:53.700 What does Saudi Arabia want to do?
00:43:55.700 Well, destroy Iran, because if you destroy Iran, you have complete control of this sort
00:44:00.700 of moves.
00:44:01.700 Then you can be the bully, okay?
00:44:02.700 But you also want to destroy the U.S. and you want to humble Israel.
00:44:07.280 Alright?
00:44:08.280 Does that make sense?
00:44:11.280 So by understanding how each player perceives the game, we can now understand how they will
00:44:17.940 go about their strategy, right?
00:44:20.120 So the United States just wants to destroy Iran.
00:44:22.420 But as you can see, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran all want to destroy the United States.
00:44:26.140 And how do you do that?
00:44:27.200 You do that by forcing the United States into a long ground war, right?
00:44:34.300 Therefore if you're Israel, you don't want to use nukes.
00:44:38.460 Why?
00:44:39.460 Because nukes would end the war too quickly.
00:44:41.100 You want to drag this war out as long as possible to force the United States to stand in ground
00:44:46.020 troops.
00:44:47.020 And then you're like, well, why doesn't the United States use nuclear weapons?
00:44:49.860 And the answer is, it's already told you, the escalation ladder.
00:44:52.060 It needs to justify itself to the people, okay?
00:44:55.140 When you do anything, all right, when you do anything, sorry, when you do anything, you
00:45:02.980 have to worry about certain factors, okay?
00:45:05.580 That's a great lecture, actually.
00:45:06.580 You have to worry about troop morale.
00:45:09.580 soldiers have to believe that they are fighting for a good cause okay you have
00:45:13.120 to worry about public opinion you have to make sure that the world is on your
00:45:17.740 side you have to worry about politics political will you have to make sure the
00:45:21.220 people are unified and you have to worry about enemy or morale you don't want to
00:45:26.580 piss off the person your enemy so much that they go into an extreme they jump
00:45:31.360 the escalation ladder to extreme beyond your control it doesn't make sense okay
00:45:35.200 so as you can see war is extremely complicated it's not just about
00:45:38.620 weaponry, it's not just about resources, it's ultimately about controlling the
00:45:44.320 narrative, controlling the political landscape, okay?
00:45:47.360 Can you move? Can you move? Can you move? Can you move?
00:45:49.360 That is strategically beneficial. Yeah, can you move?
00:45:51.620 Alright? Can you move, animate? Does that make sense to you guys? Okay, so, yeah, so we just answered two questions.
00:45:59.560 Will the United States use ground troops? Yes, it will, because Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Israel will work together to force a ground invasion, even though the United States
00:46:08.080 doesn't want to do so. But unfortunately, the United States doesn't have a clear
00:46:11.280 coherent strategy. It's passive. Therefore, it can be manipulated into sending a
00:46:15.520 ground invasion, okay? And the second question is, will Israel and the United States
00:46:20.220 use nuclear weapons? And the answer is no, because it's not in their best interest
00:46:24.600 to use nuclear weapons, okay? Israel wants the United States to lose this war, and so
00:46:29.940 that means a long war that destroys the American political will to fight any more
00:46:34.640 foreign wars if america loses israel becomes a dominant power in the middle east okay
00:46:42.720 i'm wondering how many u.s politicians know this and just don't care because they're blackmailed
00:46:47.040 but so many definitely do that israel has ulterior motives they don't care and there's no evidence
00:46:53.840 at all that shows israel cares about american lives or our country as a whole at all why would
00:46:59.040 they they clearly hate jesus they have jesus as ronald mcdonald their museums it's a jewish state
00:47:05.600 and they reject jesus america is a predominantly christian state why would they care why would
00:47:10.880 they have any interests in america there's no specific reason and there's probably an equal
00:47:18.880 amount of politicians in trump's administration right now that know this but the others are just
00:47:25.440 clueless but so many do know this and are just blackmailed so much that they don't care that
00:47:29.200 they're going to send their country to die and so the last question is the al-aqic mosque and
00:47:35.360 we'll answer that next class on thursday any questions okay new lesson on thursday
00:47:43.760 will will americans take over iran like what they did to venezuela like they captured their president
00:47:51.120 Okay, look, the strategy in the beginning was to kill Venezuela and Iran.
00:47:55.160 You go in, you kill a leader, a new leader emerges and goes with you and surrender to you because you're too powerful.
00:47:59.560 But Venezuela and Iran are two very different countries.
00:48:03.420 The Venezuelan elite is very pro-American, meaning that their wealth, their children, their family is stored in America.
00:48:10.940 Therefore, the Venezuelan elite have a vested interest in negotiating a deal with America to protect their own interests.
00:48:16.100 But for 40-plus years, America has sanctioned the Iranian elite, and Iran has become poor and angry and disgruntled because of that.
00:48:24.520 Therefore, they lose nothing by fighting you, okay?
00:48:28.100 So even though you've killed the supreme leader, and you've killed many other leaders, in fact, the elite themselves are unified in opposing you, okay?
00:48:35.100 Does that make sense?
00:48:36.100 Okay, any more questions?
00:48:37.100 Yep.
00:48:38.100 Alan?
00:48:39.100 So, I've heard a question about the motivation of U.S. to involve in this war.
00:48:43.100 involved in this war.
00:48:44.100 As you said, the U.S. wants to control the oil, so they must destroy Iran.
00:48:47.600 But I think this is a little bit confusing, because I think the U.S. know that this war
00:48:50.480 is really highly risked, and it can potentially even destroy the whole systems.
00:48:54.060 So why U.S. risk the risk of whole systems collapsing to control the oil that Iran had?
00:48:59.260 So this is the key question that everyone's arguing about.
00:49:02.340 Quite honestly, we're going to argue this for the rest of eternity, okay?
00:49:04.860 We're going to argue this for eternity because no one knows, and there's never going to be
00:49:07.980 a clear answer.
00:49:08.980 In fact, there are multiple possibilities, okay?
00:49:11.420 What I'm going to do today is offer you the most simple explanation, and in the next class
00:49:15.280 I will offer you a much more complicated explanation, okay?
00:49:17.560 The simple explanation is this.
00:49:19.060 The more complicated one is this blackmail and brainwashing, but the shorter answer is, let's see.
00:49:25.100 This goes back to military doctrine, how the United States military works, okay?
00:49:31.480 And the military doctrine is prevent the heartland from arising, right?
00:49:36.000 So the United States is here, this is Europe, this is Russia, this is Iran, India, China,
00:49:48.780 Japan, this is the Middle East, and this is Africa.
00:49:55.280 Alright, so, the American military doctrine is this, the greatest threat to American power
00:50:02.720 is the heartland unifying, okay?
00:50:06.540 Why?
00:50:07.380 Because if the heartland unifies,
00:50:08.340 it can trade by itself through railways.
00:50:12.660 But America is primarily a naval power.
00:50:15.540 Therefore, it requires people to trade by sea, okay?
00:50:19.480 And so its strategy is to make sure
00:50:21.580 there's never any cohesion in the heartland.
00:50:25.620 Either by making sure that no great power arises
00:50:28.740 in the heartland, and that's why America went to war
00:50:30.720 in World War I and World War II,
00:50:31.900 Because there's a great fear that Germany would conquer the world or Europe and Asia and create the heartland, okay?
00:50:37.460 Therefore, America has to stop Germany from rising.
00:50:40.580 No, no, it was about the gas chambers.
00:50:43.280 So you either make sure no great power arises or you create so much conflict that they're always fighting each other.
00:50:48.000 And that used to work before, okay?
00:50:50.320 Now, there's a problem.
00:50:51.720 The problem is the BRICS nations.
00:50:54.320 Russia, Iran, and China are coming together.
00:50:56.180 And if they come together, guys, that's a major piece of the heartland.
00:50:59.260 And everybody else, Europe, Middle East, Africa, India would probably follow, okay?
00:51:03.440 Because it's easier to trade in the heartland than this trade with America,
00:51:06.500 especially with the U.S. dollar declining, right?
00:51:09.900 So, in other words, the United States has no choice but to fight this war
00:51:14.980 because that's their entire strategy to maintain hegemony in the world,
00:51:18.240 to prevent the heartland from unifying, all right?
00:51:22.660 Does that make sense?
00:51:23.240 Because once you destroy Iran, the heartland fractures.
00:51:29.260 there's no way that they can now trade together anymore they're still reliant somebody just said
00:51:33.100 goy chambers it's quite literally the opposite of that on american um maritime routes okay
00:51:41.580 america maintains a head is still a hegemon because it controls world trade whoever controls
00:51:46.300 world trade controls the world where there's a heartland controls world trade okay does that
00:51:50.540 make sense okay but this is just one explanation there's actually other explanations i'll go into
00:51:54.940 a more complicated explanation next class all right any more questions all right great lecture
00:52:00.220 professor jang