SHNEAKO - March 11, 2026


Professor Jiang： Why Iran is WINNING this War!

Topics
Iranian escalation strategy
Hosted by
Nicolas Kenn De Balinthazy
Mentioned
Donald Trump Hank Shuck Hormuz Jeng Destroy Saudi Arabia Lindsey Graham American Mark Rubio Pete Hegseth Nathan Hubris Putin John Alan
SNEAKO Interviews Glenn Greenwald： World War Iran Donald Trump Endorses Jake Paul for President

Episode Stats


Length

52 minutes

Words per minute

173.84

Word count

9,046

Sentence count

293

Harmful content

Misogyny

3

sentences flagged

Toxicity

48

sentences flagged

Hate speech

74

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode, we continue our analysis of the U.S. and Iran war, and focus on the three questions that will determine the outcome of this war: Will the United States launch a ground invasion, will Iran use nuclear weapons, and will they destroy the Al-Aqsaq Mosque?

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 the united states would have to institute a national draft where a young man as young as 18
00:00:05.220 be forced to join the army and be sent to fight in iran okay you already know what to do they
00:00:12.600 show up at those draft papers hello sir are you ready to die for israel no you know what to do 0.98
00:00:19.120 don't listen uh what's his name lindsey graham saying your sons and daughters need to die 0.99
00:00:22.860 senator of south carolina nope and we might find ourselves in a nuclear apocalypse okay 0.85
00:00:27.020 So that's a great concern that everyone has right now.
00:00:30.280 And the third question is the Al-Aqsaq Mosque.
00:00:34.660 This is the third holiest site in the Islamic world.
00:00:39.720 There's Mecca, there's Medina, and there's the Al-Aqsaq Mosque. 0.81
00:00:42.420 If the religious Jews, the extremists, destroy the Al-Aqsaq Mosque, 0.95
00:00:47.540 then the two billion Muslims in this world would be religiously obligated to go to war against Israel. 0.73
00:00:54.960 Okay?
00:00:55.200 so now i want you to understand something which is that for my theory to be valid for my analysis
00:01:05.640 to be valid i have to be i have to correct on all three okay if i miss one then all my theory is
00:01:12.500 wrong i know there's a concern from around the world that nukes will be used and i'm 100 percent
00:01:18.180 parkland that i don't think so either well obviously not 100 but i don't think nukes are
00:01:22.960 going to be used. The threat of Putin, just too much going on. Too many players involved. I think
00:01:27.220 Trump's tempted to do, but he won't do it. But I agree. Al-Aqsa Mosque, they are rubbing their 1.00
00:01:32.180 hands together, ready to get that done. So this is a new Jeng lecture on the Iran war. It's called
00:01:37.080 The Law of Escalation. We have another Jeng collab coming in a month. Look forward to it.
00:01:42.440 The last one was great. Let's see if he gets more predictions correct. Predictive history.
00:01:46.420 We continue our analysis of the U.S.-Iran war.
00:01:50.520 And in this war, there are three major questions that will determine the outcome of this war, as well as the world afterwards.
00:01:59.620 These three questions are, number one, will the U.S. launch a ground invasion?
00:02:07.340 Probably.
00:02:07.680 So right now, the United States and Israel are primarily focused on an air war, striking Iran from a distance.
00:02:17.460 In the past, we would call this siege warfare.
00:02:20.380 And as long as it remains an air war, the United States can choose to de-escalate and withdraw from the Middle East.
00:02:27.260 They would lose this war, but the laws would not be catastrophic.
00:02:31.820 Whereas if they choose to launch a ground invasion, it would escalate very quickly and they would be trapped in Iran for the next 5-10 years. 0.74
00:02:41.820 It would be a catastrophe whether or not they win or lose.
00:02:45.820 Because in order to fight a ground war, the United States would have to institute a national draft.
00:02:51.820 Where a young man, as young as 18, would be forced to join the army and be sent to fight in Iran.
00:03:01.540 you already know what to do they show up at those draft papers hello sir are you ready to die for
00:03:06.260 israel no you know what to do don't listen uh what's his name lindsey graham saying your sons 0.96
00:03:12.340 and daughters need to die senator of south carolina nope no so that's the first big question for us
00:03:18.660 will the united states send in ground troops remember this there's the idea of mission creep 0.93
00:03:23.540 where maybe in the beginning you're like i'll send a thousand troops to do a small mission
00:03:28.420 but then it doesn't go well so you said in 2000 okay it slowly creeps up it's what we call mission
00:03:34.020 creep and that's how the united states embroiled itself in vietnam all right so that's the first
00:03:39.160 big question second big question is will nukes be used there's a lot of concern online that israel
00:03:50.020 is repairing a nuclear strike on iran because this really don't like how the war how the war
00:03:55.880 going and they want to reclaim the initiative nukes are a taboo in geopolitics the americans
00:04:05.800 used them at the end of world war ii and no one's used them ever since if israel were to use tactical
00:04:12.280 nuclear weapons they would whoa trisnico thank you for the 50 gifted 50 gifted bang bang bang
00:04:18.520 let's go i appreciate it dawg this universal taboo and we might find ourselves in a nuclear
00:04:24.680 apocalypse okay so that's a great concern that everyone has right now and the third question
00:04:30.520 is the al-Aqsaq mosque this is the third holiest site in the islamic world there's mecca there's
00:04:38.840 medina and there's an al-Aqsaq mosque the muslims believe that it is from the al-Aqsaq mosque in
00:04:44.360 jerusalem where muhammad ascended to heaven and the jews is that true did you get that wrong 0.79
00:04:52.040 someone fact check it thank you for the 10 gifted anonymous i appreciate it is that where you said it
00:04:57.400 thank you anonymous yes okay booze believe that the electric mosque sits on the site of their 0.86
00:05:04.440 temple which is the house of god so religious Jews extremists want to destroy the electric mosque
00:05:11.400 to rebuild the third temple and if the religious Jews the extremists destroy the asset mosque
00:05:21.960 then the two billion muslims in this world would be 0.58
00:05:25.880 religionally obligated to go to war against ishbiel 0.99
00:05:29.400 okay so
00:05:41.240 these are the three big questions that um uh will determine how this war will determine
00:05:49.720 the future of the world okay so um in this class i teach you game theory to make predictions about
00:05:57.800 the future so right now i'm going to make three predictions um and then i'm i will show you my
00:06:04.600 analysis as to how i make these predictions okay now what's important to understand is that these
00:06:08.680 are only my guesses based on my analysis and whether or not they try to be correct will
00:06:14.280 determine the validity of my analysis i don't have inside information i don't know more than you do
00:06:19.400 okay i'm just working out of public knowledge yes we knew we know you're a ccp spy who's 0.87
00:06:24.360 communicating with demons in order to brainwash the western people to be doomsday cultists we 0.88
00:06:30.560 know i'm joking let's see though and doing game theory analysis so according to game theory this
00:06:35.720 is yes the united states will send in ground troops according to game theory this is no
00:06:39.280 and number three is yes okay so what i'm going to do is my next two classes explaining to you
00:06:46.620 my game theory analysis as to how i come to these conclusions and we can watch how world events
00:06:52.740 unfold now i want you to understand something which is that for my theory to be valid for my
00:06:57.800 analysis to be valid i have to be i have to correct on all three okay if i miss one then all my theory
00:07:04.760 is wrong um i know there's a concern from around the world that nukes will be used and i'm 100%
00:07:12.640 parkland that i don't think so either well obviously not 100 but i don't think nukes are
00:07:17.420 going to be used uh threat of putin just too much going on too many players involved i think trump's
00:07:23.220 tempted to but he won't do it but i agree alaksa mosque they are rubbing their hands together ready
00:07:28.860 to get that done nukes will not be used at this time in this war and if i'm wrong i apologize to
00:07:36.900 the world okay but at the same time we'll all be dead anyway so it doesn't really matter all right
00:07:41.440 okay all right so let me explain my analysis okay so remember today what i'm going to do is do number
00:07:48.720 one and number two explain to you why israel will not use nuclear weapons and why there will be a
00:07:52.240 ground invasion and then next class i'll explain number three to you okay that's a plan for this
00:07:58.480 week all right so to understand what's going on i need to i need to teach some basic geopolitical
00:08:06.000 theory okay so in military uh affairs in geopolitics there's a concept called escalation ladder
00:08:11.900 escalation ladder
00:08:13.960 escalation ladder
00:08:18.780 the haters that started to do a coordinated attack on jang they're like he just writes
00:08:27.460 random stuff on the board and then says it so iran is muslim muslim it doesn't do that he writes
00:08:34.480 subjects and it's important the information that's not important although it can be a little messy
00:08:38.260 sometimes it is important the dominant theory is that whoever has estrogen dominance has the most
00:08:45.620 advantage okay so so what this means is let's say you and i get in a fight okay i have a knife you
00:08:50.840 have a gun well gun is more dominant than a knife therefore you have a greater advantage over me
00:08:56.840 and therefore you should win in theory okay and apply to this war in the middle east israel and
00:09:03.500 The United States have exclusion dominance because they have nuclear weapons, and Iran doesn't. 0.97
00:09:08.520 Therefore, the United States and Israel have a huge advantage. 0.91
00:09:11.760 Wait, but Lindsey Graham told me that Iran had nukes.
00:09:15.700 What?
00:09:16.540 Mark Rubio and Pete Hexat, they said that we can't allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.
00:09:21.420 What? 0.94
00:09:21.680 I thought that the Muslims were going to bomb me. 1.00
00:09:24.340 What? 1.00
00:09:25.700 Over Iran. 0.91
00:09:27.640 Okay?
00:09:27.860 But what I will show you today is that this theory is incorrect.
00:09:31.500 It actually doesn't work that way.
00:09:33.220 Right?
00:09:33.500 So let's start off with a very simple example.
00:09:38.380 Let's just say that two people get into a fight, okay?
00:09:40.700 A and B.
00:09:42.640 And how the escalation ladder will work is that maybe A and B run into each other, okay?
00:09:48.560 And then A says, hey man, say sorry.
00:09:50.740 And then B is like, it's not my fault.
00:09:52.400 You say sorry, okay?
00:09:54.160 Professor John is too smart and too late to joke with, and honestly, I think he's the most accurate.
00:10:00.080 Yeah, I joked around with him.
00:10:01.480 He's funny.
00:10:01.800 small conflict no one knows uh why and no one knows who's at fault okay so they start
00:10:06.500 cursing each other okay so the first step is a conflict chad who does this remind you of 0.98
00:10:11.220 second step is they start cursing each other right screw you yeah screw you and then they might start 0.88
00:10:18.940 pushing each other right push push and then they hit each other okay punch punch and then they start 0.98
00:10:28.960 the fight and then one pulls out a knife and the other pulls out a gun all right and then b shoots
00:10:35.780 dead a fight over right okay so there are certain things that we need to keep in mind about this
00:10:42.980 example first of all the fight is not contained in its yo it's easy to go is that drake what the
00:10:48.460 whoa think of it 50 gifted bang 50 gifted holy moly back to back bro appreciate it big time let's go
00:10:55.940 nice because you never i really don't get that many gifted in the chat i appreciate you big time
00:11:01.340 thank you about this example first of all the fight is not contained in itself okay you cannot
00:11:09.720 perceive this game as just one between a and b who's physically stronger there are other players
00:11:15.460 involved as well okay so for example there are spectators or friends there's a crowd watching
00:11:22.700 you okay it's important because there's also the police right eventually the police will come
00:11:29.100 um the government and they'll ask people hey what happened man whose fault was it
00:11:32.700 right and also for people who are religious there's also god right if you die you have
00:11:37.660 to go up to god heaven and god's gonna ask you hey man how did you die so you have to explain
00:11:42.540 how you died all right so in other words in this escalation ladder there are three factors that
00:11:48.380 you have to consider that drive people up this escalation ladder okay can you guys let me lock
00:11:52.940 in on the lecture oh my god thank you thank you keep on gifting thank you so much anonymous thank
00:11:59.100 you these three factors are of course emotions second uh is power and the third is reason or
00:12:09.260 logic okay and what drives people up is adrenaline in other words it's impossible to go to skip
00:12:18.300 escalation ladder right you don't go from like hey screw you to like the guy pulling out a gun
00:12:21.900 and shooting you okay you have to go step by step by step because adrenaline is rushing in your
00:12:26.540 system and this adrenaline it's making you more angry but it's also making you stronger and more
00:12:31.660 resolved and it's also telling you how to fight this battle okay and the thing to remember about
00:12:38.780 this is this is really important is that it's not about how fast you climb up the escalation ladder
00:12:44.780 okay if you get too angry and you over react then you are at fault right what you want to do is
00:12:51.180 climb it up straight you can't spike cortisol first so everyone is going to think that you
00:12:55.100 got frame mauled by iran strategically and that means you have to remain calm and controlled
00:13:00.300 because if you remain calm controlled you have three advantages over your opponent the first is
00:13:06.780 um focus second is who's going to win the gift war anonymous or trizzy the goat
00:13:12.060 Who's going to win?
00:13:15.060 The third is focus, you're clear and resolve.
00:13:22.060 Sorry, resolve.
00:13:23.060 What this means is that you know what you're doing.
00:13:26.060 You have a strategy.
00:13:27.060 You're clear about how to achieve your strategy and your goal.
00:13:30.060 And you're determined to achieve it.
00:13:32.060 But in order to have all three, you have to remain calm.
00:13:35.060 And therefore, you need to control yourself as you climb up this escalation ladder.
00:13:40.060 Remember, it's just not about being your opponent.
00:13:42.180 It's about justifying yourself to your friends, to the police, and to God as well.
00:13:47.800 Because you might hit that person, he might go to the hospital, and you've won the fight,
00:13:51.100 but then you go to prison for 10 years, in which case, you've lost the fight.
00:13:55.260 Thank you again for the fire.
00:13:56.380 Thank you.
00:13:57.440 Thank you.
00:13:57.660 Thank you.
00:13:57.880 Thank you.
00:13:57.900 Thank you.
00:13:57.920 Thank you.
00:13:57.940 Okay.
00:13:59.400 All right.
00:13:59.940 Thank you so much, brother.
00:14:00.540 So, the main idea I want you to remember is this, and this is the law of escalation.
00:14:04.140 I'm Nathan.
00:14:04.480 and this is a very important idea in my game theory model control is more important than
00:14:14.480 dominance okay control is more important than dominance why because control is the idea of
00:14:22.780 calibration calibration means that you time or you structure or you strategize your response
00:14:31.180 in a way that helps you achieve your strategic objective okay you're not just throwing punches
00:14:36.540 you're throwing a punch in a certain way that allows you to defend yourself that strikes fear
00:14:42.380 an opponent and also allows you to seem as the good guy among spectators okay and then when the
00:14:50.300 police come you can justify why you threw that punch in a certain way to the police so that you
00:14:53.900 don't go to jail okay thanks you're right all right so another way of saying this is that
00:14:58.060 calibration is ultimately about strategic flexibility and the idea of strategic flexibility
00:15:05.660 is in a fight the person who has the most options the person who has the most special strategy will
00:15:15.100 usually win the fight okay there's a lot of escalation and i'll explain to you how this
00:15:19.740 applies to the u.s iran war okay okay all right so before i actually talk about the war what i
00:15:26.700 what i want to do is do is what i want to do is do a thought experiment to examine how we can
00:15:31.900 understand what's going on between united states and iran okay so let's do a thought experiment
00:15:35.980 and the thought experiment is this all right jang let's just say that there's a bully okay
00:15:40.300 and he's the biggest guy in the school and he has a gang okay these are his friends
00:15:47.500 and there's like uh maybe four of them and so what they do is they basically prey on
00:15:55.340 everyone at the school okay and there's gonna be a hundred people at the school
00:15:58.640 all right and so what they do is they make everyone in the cafeteria pay a tax
00:16:08.480 okay go in the cafeteria and eat you have to pay a tax
00:16:11.720 maybe a dollar who knows okay Chad this school is called Hustlers University
00:16:15.780 the friends of a bully go collect a tax and then give him all the money okay and
00:16:21.620 and that is the structure of the school,
00:16:24.160 where if you want to eat lunch in the cafeteria,
00:16:26.600 you have to pay a tax,
00:16:28.100 and the bully's friends collect the money,
00:16:29.780 and the bully shares the money amongst his gang, okay?
00:16:33.960 Now, at first, people are okay with the system
00:16:36.500 because they think that it's actually beneficial
00:16:38.420 because the bully is keeping the peace and order
00:16:41.140 in the cafeteria, right?
00:16:42.240 He's keeping everyone safe.
00:16:43.240 So yeah, I pay a dollar, but it's not that much money,
00:16:45.900 and we're all safe so that we can all enjoy our lunch
00:16:49.080 in peace in the cafeteria, okay?
00:16:50.780 But no.
00:16:51.300 But then what happens over time is that the bully gets more and more arrogant because he feels invincible.
00:16:58.400 Everyone just obeys him.
00:16:59.520 So he develops the idea of hubris.
00:17:01.780 Hubris.
00:17:02.580 And the idea of hubris is that no one has the courage to challenge me.
00:17:07.660 Everyone's afraid of me, and therefore I can do what I want.
00:17:09.920 So what does he do?
00:17:10.440 Well, the first thing he does is that he charges more money from everyone, okay?
00:17:16.020 So the tax goes up.
00:17:17.440 And so people are disgruntled about this.
00:17:20.780 They don't understand why they're paying more to the bully, okay?
00:17:25.020 But knowing that, what he will also do is pay less money to his friends
00:17:29.820 so that he can have more money because he wants to buy a car
00:17:31.740 or he wants to go to Paris for the summer, okay?
00:17:34.340 Does that make sense?
00:17:35.340 Okay, so everyone's not happy about this,
00:17:39.000 but this is the reality that they live in,
00:17:41.560 and there's nothing they can do about it.
00:17:43.120 And so people just put up with it.
00:17:44.860 One day, a new kid comes into school, okay?
00:17:47.980 The new kid.
00:17:48.500 I feel like I've seen this movie.
00:17:50.780 and he doesn't really understand the rules of the game it's like star wars and he doesn't know
00:17:56.700 he's supposed to pay a tax right so the bully's friend comes over and says hey man where's the
00:18:01.200 dollar and he's like what dollar i just got here and he refuses to pay and so what they decide to
00:18:06.340 do is teach him a lesson by ostracizing him by making him sit alone by himself in the couch
00:18:10.880 this is the plot of godfather 2 where vito corleone is in little italy in new york city
00:18:16.080 and there's a mob boss who wants to take tax from everybody and he's harassing deli owners
00:18:22.480 and getting people fired so that he can employ his own nephew at the store
00:18:25.800 and then actually vito corleone says enough is enough and he tracks down that mob boss
00:18:31.120 and he makes him sleep with the fishes terrier okay you have no friends because you don't know
00:18:38.240 the rules and you refuse to play along and the new kid is like i don't care i'm happy not having
00:18:42.420 and his friends, okay?
00:18:44.040 And so then the bully and his friends start to discuss,
00:18:47.240 how can we get this new kid to play along?
00:18:51.220 And so they decide what they're gonna do is
00:18:53.400 they're going to curse him, they're gonna bully him, okay?
00:18:56.220 So the new kid goes to lunch and he's eating his lunch
00:18:59.060 and the friends come down and start to curse him. 0.99
00:19:00.760 He says, you're a wimp, do you wanna fight us? 0.98
00:19:02.880 And what the new kid does is he just ignores these guys. 0.98
00:19:06.980 And these guys are like, what's going on, man?
00:19:08.700 Why is he afraid of us?
00:19:09.860 and slowly what happens is that the other people the other kids recognize that wow maybe it is 1.00
00:19:16.740 possible to rebel against the bully maybe it is possible these stupid taxes and so they start 0.99
00:19:24.260 talking to him secretly okay they give him presents they start to say smile at him and say hi to him 1.00
00:19:30.340 okay but the new kid just ignores everything right and then the friends are like you know what we
00:19:36.820 don't actually benefit this much from this relationship anyway maybe if we appoint this
00:19:41.700 new kid as the new bully the new boss he'll treat us better and then you have other friends who are 0.99
00:19:48.020 like you know what this bully he's he's fat he's ugly maybe i should be the boss okay so just you 0.97
00:19:55.220 guys think this is a jang therapy session this is not his origin story because the new kid comes in 0.98
00:20:00.580 doesn't know the rules and he's willing to challenge the reality challenge the assumptions
00:20:05.620 the values of this cafeteria now there's dissent now there's rebellion going on okay and different
00:20:11.460 people are talking to him and um trying to form alliances with him but what he does and it's
00:20:19.060 really interesting is that he just ignores everyone and keeps focused okay and then one day
00:20:25.060 um the police friend comes over and says you know what you're a whip and the new kid finally says
00:20:30.740 i'm not afraid of you okay and this friend goes back and tells his boss hey this new kid said he's
00:20:35.540 not afraid of you man what do you do about it now nope and the bully gets really angry and says i'm
00:20:39.380 going to go punch his face okay so the bully goes in front of new kid and says if you don't apologize 0.98
00:20:46.740 i'm going to punch you in the face and the kid's like what did i do wrong what should i apologize 0.99
00:20:51.220 for and the bully's kind of confused so he goes away comes out next day and says you're apologizing 0.99
00:20:55.220 What's happening now, man?
00:20:56.380 And the kid's like, okay, for what?
00:20:59.000 Tell me to apologize for what?
00:21:00.460 And this goes on for a long time, okay?
00:21:02.240 And then eventually, the bully gets so pissed off
00:21:04.760 that he punches the new kid in the face, okay?
00:21:07.040 So he started it.
00:21:07.880 The new kid, he's hurt, but he decided to punch 0.96
00:21:11.800 the bully back in the face, okay? 0.83
00:21:13.200 And the bully's stronger, so he beats the bully up.
00:21:15.220 He beats up the new kid.
00:21:17.060 But what's happened now is that everyone in the school
00:21:20.140 has seen that the bully is not that strong.
00:21:23.460 seen that the bully is actually pretty weak and so they recognize that hey if we stand alongside
00:21:30.180 the new kid we can beat the bully all right and eventually what happens is the bully is defeated
00:21:39.380 doesn't make sense to you guys all right so certain things to understand is that yes
00:21:45.780 the bully has escalation dominance because he's stronger in the school he can beat up everyone
00:21:50.740 but what wins the fight is control what wins the fight is collaboration sorry
00:21:56.260 calibration should you flexibility the fact that the new kid has many different
00:22:01.600 options and he's picking the option that is most strategic advantage to him okay
00:22:07.020 now what you will notice from this example is the bully doesn't have that
00:22:11.060 many options actually because this sounds very familiar oh it sounds very
00:22:17.680 very familiar don't you think i'm just gonna say i didn't do it i'm just gonna say that i didn't
00:22:22.140 play the song i don't find the song funny i didn't think it was appropriate to do you gotta
00:22:26.200 sacrifice that title and this will tard it this is not funny this is horrible guess you're not 0.98
00:22:29.940 top g anymore stole that shit i'm top g nigga i talk facts 0.99
00:22:33.100 he needs to maintain the idea of face or credibility right stole it 0.99
00:22:47.680 this is the essence of his power his power lies on the fact that if you don't listen to him
00:22:55.300 if you don't obey him he will come and beat the crap out of you right that's credibility
00:22:59.620 but the moment that you show that it's actually it's actually not that big of a deal to be
00:23:04.920 punched by him he's not that strong then he loses all credibility okay which means that he either
00:23:10.240 retreats or he's forced to strike harder to kill you okay to maintain his credibility so another
00:23:16.500 saying this is that um by calibrating your movements strategically you can manipulate the
00:23:25.140 bully into self-destruction doesn't make sense you guys all right any questions okay so that's
00:23:34.020 a theory all right so now what we're gonna do is we're gonna apply this theory the law of escalation
00:23:40.660 to what's happening in the middle east okay we're gonna do why are you guys saying pre-watch dude
00:23:45.220 shut up like when when would i have any time to pre-watch this when i'm live literally almost 0.62
00:23:49.860 every waking moment of every day do that by looking at the escalation ladders of both iran 0.98
00:23:54.740 and the united states yes shooby he has students there you don't know amber okay
00:24:03.780 this is the u.s this is iran okay so let's look at the escalation ladder so the first thing the
00:24:10.260 united states does of course is something called decapitation what is decapitation 0.99
00:24:14.100 decapitation is like I just kill your leaders you don't have any more leaders 0.98
00:24:17.220 and therefore you don't know what to do and therefore you surrender okay that's 0.96
00:24:21.180 the first thing the US did it didn't work so now the United States is doing is
00:24:24.660 attacking military target air defense and military bases okay that's the second
00:24:32.460 second step and the idea is that you beat the crap out of the military so they
00:24:37.320 surrender but that didn't work either okay so then what you do next of course
00:24:41.580 is economic embargo where you basically prevent Iran from trading with the world
00:24:50.640 right prevent Iran from selling oil to China basically by blockading the seas
00:24:55.460 and the idea here is that if the government doesn't have any money paid
00:24:59.100 soldiers its soldiers will just not fight okay but that didn't but that's not
00:25:03.840 working either so then what you do of course is you attack civilian
00:25:08.540 infrastructure okay which is probably water and oil and desalination so you
00:25:14.640 may have seen the news that this release attacked an oil depot in Tehran and now
00:25:19.580 you look if you look at a picture of Tehran it's all black okay and this is a 1.00
00:25:22.760 war crime or this goes against international law because you're attacking civilians
00:25:26.060 but that's what you do when you feel as though you need to apply more pressure to
00:25:30.660 win this war okay and so you can keep on escalating and then what you do is that
00:25:38.100 Now that you've attacked the civilians and they still refuse to surrender, what you do now is you use secret weapons.
00:25:47.100 The boy beam.
00:25:48.100 Secret weapons might be advanced missiles that no one's ever seen before.
00:25:51.100 Boy beam.
00:25:52.100 And the point of these secret weapons is to scare the crowd out of people and say, you see how dominant we are?
00:25:57.100 If that doesn't work, then what you do next is use biological and chemical weapons.
00:26:02.100 Biochemical weapons.
00:26:04.100 doesn't work either then guys nuclear weapons all right so what's really important for us to
00:26:13.540 understand is that you must follow this escalation ladder if you are to use nuclear weapons and the
00:26:19.240 reality is that first of all we have not seen secret weapons we have not seen biochemical weapons and
00:26:24.700 therefore no no they use the goi beam did they not they use the goi beam weapons comes later okay
00:26:30.340 unless I see our chemical weapons being used I refuse to believe the nuclear
00:26:34.480 weapons is on the table okay all right so I think we are here which is the
00:26:38.740 beginning of attacks on civilian infrastructure but already we're seeing
00:26:44.060 arguments in the American political system against the use of weapons
00:26:49.780 against civilians okay the reason why is that if you do this okay if you destroy
00:26:54.580 civil infrastructure you unite the people behind the government because the
00:26:59.320 The idea is that you use airstrikes to split apart the government and the people, and you
00:27:03.780 want people to overthrow the government for you, okay?
00:27:05.560 Didn't work.
00:27:06.560 That's the idea here.
00:27:08.640 So we are at this stage, meaning that we have a long way to go before we hit nuclear weapons,
00:27:13.320 okay?
00:27:14.320 All right.
00:27:15.320 So now let's look at the Iranian escalation ladder.
00:27:19.680 So what's happening is that in the beginning, Iran does two major things, okay? 0.73
00:27:27.720 The first is attack military targets, okay?
00:27:31.720 GCC.
00:27:32.720 And what they're basically targeting are U.S. radar systems and air defenses.
00:27:36.720 Because once these two things go, then Iran can attack whatever it wants, okay? 0.92
00:27:41.840 It's also close to Strait of Hormuz, all right?
00:27:49.520 And by closing Strait of Hormuz, you put pressure on the economies of the GCC, as well as East
00:27:54.720 Asia.
00:27:55.720 that by locating the economies, the GCC, UAE, Saudi Arabia,
00:28:02.000 Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, will put pressure on Donald Trump
00:28:04.320 to end this war as quickly as possible.
00:28:05.960 Also, East Asia receives most of its oil
00:28:09.940 from the GCC, from the Gulf of Hormuz, right?
00:28:11.640 So China gets about 40% of its oil,
00:28:13.400 Japan gets 75%, that's a lot of oil.
00:28:16.220 So the hope is that these countries
00:28:17.580 will put pressure on the United States
00:28:18.940 to end this war as soon as possible, okay?
00:28:20.540 So that is the Iranian strategy. 0.89
00:28:23.160 But if they're forced to go up the escalation ladder,
00:28:25.440 What will happen is this.
00:28:26.460 If you attack... 1.00
00:28:27.280 Someone said straight whore moose, you stupid... 1.00
00:28:30.160 Bro, it's straight whore moose, not whore moose, idiot. 1.00
00:28:33.080 Their economy, they will attack your economy as well, okay? 1.00
00:28:35.780 With missiles.
00:28:36.860 Basically targeting oil fields.
00:28:39.840 If you attack your civilian infrastructure,
00:28:41.540 they will attack your civilian infrastructure as well.
00:28:43.360 And what is the main weakness in these GCC countries?
00:28:45.780 Desalination plants, okay?
00:28:47.220 Desalination plants.
00:28:50.900 And that's it, okay?
00:28:52.000 That's the extent of the Iranian escalation ladder because it doesn't have nuclear weapons.
00:28:58.820 It doesn't have chemical weapons.
00:29:00.780 No, Hank Shuck told me they do.
00:29:02.840 Shuck told me that BB-9 Yahoo, thank you BB, he told me they have a nuclear.
00:29:08.320 They told me they have a nuclear.
00:29:10.220 It doesn't have intercontinental missiles that they can target the United States with.
00:29:14.880 So as you can see, oh, the U.S. and Israel have escalation dominance 0.79
00:29:18.860 because they can go way up higher in the escalation ladder than Iran.
00:29:24.420 But that's the wrong way to understand this, okay?
00:29:28.020 Because if you look at their strategies, Iran has much more flexibility,
00:29:32.620 much more calibration than the United States, okay?
00:29:36.020 When the United States attacks you, it's pretty blunt.
00:29:38.660 But look, by close to the Strait of Hormuz, I can be strategic in how I close to the Strait of Hormuz.
00:29:42.900 For example, if you're a Chinese ship, I'll let you pass. 1.00
00:29:45.840 For example, if you are a GCC nation and you want to bribe me, 0.98
00:29:49.320 if you want to pay me a tax, I'll let you pass as well.
00:29:51.780 If you're a GCC nation and you're like, you know what, forget the United States, 0.85
00:29:54.620 I want to be a friend of Iran, I'll let you pass as well.
00:29:56.720 You understand?
00:29:57.440 So by closing all the straddle moves, it creates a calibration strategy.
00:30:01.500 It allows Iran to selectively and strategically apply pressure 0.89
00:30:05.720 to the friends of the United States so that they become the friends of Iran.
00:30:10.300 okay same thing with these drone strikes against oil fields and military targets right
00:30:18.540 if you attack me i attack you with drones but if you don't attack me then i don't attack you
00:30:23.180 okay so in other words okay this is a really important idea the u.s
00:30:31.100 and iran have different military decision trees
00:30:36.700 okay all right so let me explain how because the united states and israel they're just attacking 0.86
00:30:43.980 iran okay and they attack with air power so that's very blunt right okay so you go from one step to
00:30:50.600 the next to the next to the next okay this is this classic escalation ladder iran is not like this
00:30:56.380 their decision tree is different okay because their strategy is to force the united states to
00:31:02.280 to admit defeat and retreat from the GCC, okay?
00:31:06.380 To close down the military bases in the Middle East
00:31:08.400 so that Iran has control over the certain moves
00:31:10.680 and therefore it can control all world trade, all right?
00:31:13.980 So that's the strategy.
00:31:14.840 So this strategy means that you have different options,
00:31:18.600 all right?
00:31:19.440 Your options are attack Israel, 0.99
00:31:24.520 your military targets, civilian targets, Tel Aviv, okay?
00:31:28.840 All right, so I don't wanna spend too much time on this,
00:31:30.540 But as you can see, if you think about it, Iran can be much more selective in its targeting than the United States and Israel.
00:31:39.340 And therefore, the options that it has, it is much more diverse, which gives Iran escalation control over the situation. 0.70
00:31:50.520 Do you guys understand this?
00:31:51.860 All right. So let's look at why Iran has advantages over the escalation ladder. 0.93
00:31:59.200 Okay?
00:32:00.040 U.S., Iran.
00:32:04.160 The first major difference is that Iran is active,
00:32:10.980 whereas the U.S. is passive, okay?
00:32:14.120 Another thing is, go back to the bully example,
00:32:15.860 where the bully has to maintain credibility.
00:32:18.280 He has to show that he's more powerful
00:32:19.900 than the other kids, right?
00:32:21.760 So if you provoke him, he has no choice in the matter 0.96
00:32:24.340 but to hit you, okay?
00:32:26.100 But you, the new kid, can choose whether or not to provoke him or not.
00:32:31.660 You can choose the timing of when to provoke him.
00:32:33.780 Therefore, you are active, okay?
00:32:36.560 The second big difference is that Iran has a clear strategy.
00:32:41.640 It knows what it wants to accomplish, and it knows how to accomplish what it wants.
00:32:46.980 Remember, what Iran wants is control the struggle moves, and the United States out of the Middle 0.91
00:32:51.520 East.
00:32:52.520 That's what it wants to do.
00:32:53.520 And it's calibrating it.
00:32:54.520 Banju, thank you for the five. What do you name is Banju for, bro? Thank you for the five.
00:32:58.380 It attacks in a certain way to achieve this end goal, and it's working out very well for Iran, okay? 1.00
00:33:03.440 The United States, on the other hand, doesn't know what it wants. It wants to destroy Iran.
00:33:06.520 What does that mean, okay? Destroy. It could mean regime change. It could mean economy collapses. 0.99
00:33:12.900 It could mean the civilian population starves, okay? It could mean anything.
00:33:16.560 But because there's so much ambiguity, so much confusion about what it means, it confuses military strategy, right?
00:33:22.640 And the last thing is, of course, is that Iran is flexible, and the United States is inflexible.
00:33:32.520 Okay?
00:33:33.660 So by studying the escalation ladder, we discover that Iran has far more advantages than the United States. 0.94
00:33:41.720 Okay?
00:33:42.540 All right.
00:33:43.060 So what does this mean?
00:33:45.860 All right.
00:33:46.640 It means that Iran will probably win this war, ultimately. 0.96
00:33:50.280 But it has to be major changes to a society in order to win this one.
00:33:57.100 So remember, to win a fight, you have to have three things.
00:34:00.680 Focus, clarity, and resolve.
00:34:09.640 All right?
00:34:11.120 You have to know what your purpose is.
00:34:12.640 You have to know how to achieve it.
00:34:14.980 You have to be determined to achieve it, okay?
00:34:16.820 So what does this mean for the Middle East?
00:34:19.640 What does it mean for Iran?
00:34:21.280 First thing is focus means unity.
00:34:23.900 Meaning that you have to unite your population,
00:34:27.420 which means basically crushing all dissent.
00:34:30.420 We can't argue anymore.
00:34:31.460 We have to unify for a purpose, okay?
00:34:35.300 The second thing, clarity, is to censor people.
00:34:39.780 Censorship.
00:34:40.920 And we're already seeing that in Israel
00:34:42.740 where you're not allowed to film military strikes.
00:34:46.820 If a drone comes and attacks Tel Aviv in Israel, you cannot film that and put it on social media.
00:34:51.820 The government will come and arrest you. Same thing in Dubai.
00:34:54.820 You cannot show Dubai being attacked, so massive censorship is going on.
00:34:58.820 And resolve just means militarization, where the Middle East moves towards total war. 0.89
00:35:04.820 Total war just means that every citizen now is recruited into the war effort.
00:35:09.820 It just means that the entire economy is geared towards war.
00:35:13.820 Can you move or I can see?
00:35:14.820 and um one last point i'll make is this what we need to understand about the escalation ladder
00:35:19.580 is that as it moves up we have to remember that this war is being fought multi-dimensionally 1.00
00:35:25.400 okay really dude you just said total war you racist stupid idiot what does that mean it means 1.00
00:35:31.720 that the military is just one dimension but there are four major dimensions there are others but 1.00
00:35:37.580 let's focus on four major dimensions okay the first major dimension is narrative narrative
00:35:43.180 is basically world opinion second is political political just means the relationship of nations
00:35:51.740 to each other the relationship of the need of the government to the people okay political
00:35:55.180 the third dimension is economical economic and the fourth is military what's really important
00:36:02.940 to understand is that the military dimension is probably the least important there are other
00:36:06.700 dimensions that are much more important therefore these four factors determine how the united states
00:36:12.700 and iran move up the escalation ladder okay because your purpose is to control the narrative
00:36:18.540 and justify why you're doing what you're doing uh political means you still maintain good
00:36:23.660 relations with other states right so as the united states is fighting this war against iran
00:36:28.380 the united states is still talking to china yes it's still talking to russia yeah so that
00:36:34.220 discussion the political discussion determines the contours of this fight economic means that
00:36:39.820 as this fight is still happening nations are still trading with each other and that factors
00:36:44.220 into how the military is fought okay does that make sense so i know this is very complicated
00:36:49.500 but you need you need to understand how complicated war is it's as simple as saying you know what
00:36:53.420 let's nuke that guy doesn't work that way okay there are a lot of constraints there's a lot of
00:36:57.260 factors a lot of stakeholders involved to constrain the use of nukes okay all right all right so let's
00:37:04.860 now discuss ground troops all right the first question we look at is will ground troops be used
00:37:10.300 and the answer unfortunately is yes they have to be used and it has to do with how the military
00:37:15.740 works okay of how wars are fought basically when you fight a war you have to have a correct
00:37:22.540 cost pyramid okay and the most simple cost pyramid okay is is this infantry soldiers okay
00:37:35.500 all right they're the bottom why because they're the cheapest what about them armor us goyim 0.85
00:37:42.300 we're the cheapest of the bunch huh okay artillery tanks
00:37:47.820 they're more expensive to produce you need more resources you need more time
00:37:50.620 then you have naval right then you have ear it doesn't make sense this is the cost pyramid
00:37:58.080 and cost pyramid just is this question like how much energy how much time how much resources do
00:38:03.920 you need to produce a certain product okay it costs you very little to produce a soldier but
00:38:08.460 it costs you a lot to produce an airplane this is important because wars are usually wars of
00:38:12.740 attrition meaning that you have to put all your resources in to win the war okay so this is just
00:38:18.080 production capacity. And this is the most standard model that you have of a class
00:38:25.760 pyramid for a military war. Does that make sense guys? The problem is that the
00:38:30.680 United States have an inverse pyramid, meaning that here is what's
00:38:36.800 dominant, then naval, then armor, then soldiers. You can't fight a war like this.
00:38:45.840 I mean the moment you choose to fight a war like this you've lost the war because you either take
00:38:51.060 out the country in like two days or you scoot over but you cannot replenish your forces now
00:38:56.400 I I know this is hard to understand but 1991 the Persian Gulf War 2003 the Iraq War these are not
00:39:03.000 real wars okay because Americans were so dominant and Iraq was so weak that was basically a video
00:39:08.760 game all right because it's these these pilots flying around is bombing everything okay you look
00:39:13.020 the white house propaganda they're trying to make it the same thing right now showing depictions of
00:39:17.100 literal call of duty memes of them bombing iran and tehran the capital making baseball and football
00:39:23.940 memes they're trying to turn it into a video game the same way the iraq war was fought okay it's
00:39:27.580 like guys in tanks just running over the iraqi army those were just video games but this iran
00:39:33.200 thing is a real war and therefore you cannot fight a war like this if you want to win this war
00:39:39.200 the only thing you can do is return to a realistic cost pyramid.
00:39:45.520 You don't have a choice in the matter, right?
00:39:47.340 Because, again, your cheapest product are soldiers, right?
00:39:53.940 And the most expensive are airplanes.
00:39:55.620 You cannot afford to use an airplane in order to save the life of a soldier.
00:40:00.700 Eventually, this cost-benefit analysis will blow up on you, okay?
00:40:05.420 Does that make sense, guys?
00:40:06.260 all right so the United States wants to win this war then it has no choice but
00:40:10.700 to use ground troops to use soldiers as the main force of its military any
00:40:17.300 questions so far all right okay now the question then is will the United States
00:40:22.940 use ground troops I already said that if the United States is to win this war
00:40:26.760 that's no choice but to use ground troops but will the United States use ground
00:40:30.800 troops and a lot is determined by the game theory strategies of the different
00:40:34.940 okay so let's look at goyim duty the four major players in this war you have US
00:40:46.760 you have Israel you have Saudi Arabia and you have Iran okay all right so the 0.94
00:40:56.000 United States and Iran they're pretty easy to understand what the United States
00:40:58.520 wants to do is destroy Iran okay why he's going to destroy Iran the United States 0.84
00:41:08.120 would have complete control over Middle East oil and it'll control global trade 0.57
00:41:12.760 for the Strait of Hormuz and therefore the United States can maintain its
00:41:15.320 empire okay so a really simple objective let's destroy Iran we don't care how we 0.99
00:41:19.100 don't care why let's just go do it okay Iran has another strategy which is
00:41:23.320 control straight-up moves and destroy CENTCOM. CENTCOM is basically the American 0.79
00:41:34.660 military in the Middle East called Central Command. So those are two major
00:41:37.060 military objectives of Iran. And we can understand why. Because if CENTCOM is
00:41:40.900 destroyed, Iran has complete control over the Middle East. Now Dubai, now Oman, 0.97
00:41:47.580 Iran, Kuwait, had to pay taxes to Iran.
00:41:51.760 Now Iran, the new kid, is now the bully of the Middle East. 1.00
00:41:55.020 That's a hegemon. 0.84
00:41:56.100 That is the political objective of this war.
00:42:00.420 Israel is a bit more complicated.
00:42:03.520 For Israel, oh sorry, sorry, sorry, 0.99
00:42:05.480 one other thing is humble Israel.
00:42:10.420 That's the other thing, because even if you defeat
00:42:12.220 the United States, you start to deal with Israel. 0.56
00:42:13.960 And Israel is a great military power of the Middle East.
00:42:15.940 So you want to humble them, you want to weaken them.
00:42:17.600 You can't destroy Israel,
00:42:18.860 because Israel has nuclear weapons, right?
00:42:21.560 You piss off Israel, those nukes start flying. 0.99
00:42:23.520 You don't want that, all right?
00:42:24.540 So those are the three major political objectives for Iran.
00:42:27.660 Control the server moves, destroy CENTCOM,
00:42:29.420 and humble Israel, okay?
00:42:30.640 If you are Israel, actually for you, 0.70
00:42:34.840 the strategy is different.
00:42:35.900 What you wanna do is this.
00:42:36.740 You want to destroy CENTCOM,
00:42:41.620 and destroy Iran. 0.94
00:42:44.740 Okay? 0.88
00:42:45.520 It's funny. Americans don't understand that Israel and Iran actually do have similar
00:42:49.840 objectives. They both want to destroy CENTCOM. Israel does not care about Americans. They don't 0.55
00:42:54.720 care about CENTCOM. They don't care about the American presence in the Middle East.
00:42:59.180 In fact, Jeng claims that Israel has a much stronger military than the world knows and that
00:43:04.940 it doesn't actually need the U.S. as much as they claim. And so they're kind of a double agent.
00:43:10.140 They're pretending like they need the U.S., but they really want to destroy the U.S. so they 0.98
00:43:13.720 could get the frick out of the Middle East. Why? Because if you destroy both of the United States. 0.95
00:43:17.980 What's CENTCOM? CENTCOM is Central Command. It's like the military bases in the Middle East.
00:43:21.860 If you destroy Iran, then you are the sole hegemon in the Middle East, okay? Also destroy the GCC. 0.87
00:43:30.560 Another. Destroy Saudi Arabia as well. Why? Because once Saudi Arabia is destroyed, 0.99
00:43:35.600 all its resources belong to you, okay? And this creates something called the Greater Israel 0.94
00:43:38.980 Project, which is what we'll discuss next class. But as you can see, what's really important is
00:43:43.520 that even though the United States and Israel are allies, their optimal strategy is different.
00:43:49.200 Their objectives are different.
00:43:50.700 In fact, they're in conflict.
00:43:51.700 Okay?
00:43:52.700 Then you have Saudi Arabia.
00:43:53.700 What does Saudi Arabia want to do?
00:43:55.700 Well, destroy Iran, because if you destroy Iran, you have complete control of this sort 0.99
00:44:00.700 of moves. 0.99
00:44:01.700 Then you can be the bully, okay?
00:44:02.700 But you also want to destroy the U.S. and you want to humble Israel. 0.97
00:44:07.280 Alright?
00:44:08.280 Does that make sense?
00:44:11.280 So by understanding how each player perceives the game, we can now understand how they will
00:44:17.940 go about their strategy, right?
00:44:20.120 So the United States just wants to destroy Iran.
00:44:22.420 But as you can see, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran all want to destroy the United States. 0.95
00:44:26.140 And how do you do that?
00:44:27.200 You do that by forcing the United States into a long ground war, right?
00:44:34.300 Therefore if you're Israel, you don't want to use nukes.
00:44:38.460 Why?
00:44:39.460 Because nukes would end the war too quickly.
00:44:41.100 You want to drag this war out as long as possible to force the United States to stand in ground
00:44:46.020 troops.
00:44:47.020 And then you're like, well, why doesn't the United States use nuclear weapons?
00:44:49.860 And the answer is, it's already told you, the escalation ladder.
00:44:52.060 It needs to justify itself to the people, okay?
00:44:55.140 When you do anything, all right, when you do anything, sorry, when you do anything, you
00:45:02.980 have to worry about certain factors, okay?
00:45:05.580 That's a great lecture, actually.
00:45:06.580 You have to worry about troop morale.
00:45:09.580 soldiers have to believe that they are fighting for a good cause okay you have
00:45:13.120 to worry about public opinion you have to make sure that the world is on your
00:45:17.740 side you have to worry about politics political will you have to make sure the
00:45:21.220 people are unified and you have to worry about enemy or morale you don't want to
00:45:26.580 piss off the person your enemy so much that they go into an extreme they jump
00:45:31.360 the escalation ladder to extreme beyond your control it doesn't make sense okay
00:45:35.200 so as you can see war is extremely complicated it's not just about
00:45:38.620 weaponry, it's not just about resources, it's ultimately about controlling the
00:45:44.320 narrative, controlling the political landscape, okay?
00:45:47.360 Can you move? Can you move? Can you move? Can you move?
00:45:49.360 That is strategically beneficial. Yeah, can you move?
00:45:51.620 Alright? Can you move, animate? Does that make sense to you guys? Okay, so, yeah, so we just answered two questions.
00:45:59.560 Will the United States use ground troops? Yes, it will, because Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Israel will work together to force a ground invasion, even though the United States 0.56
00:46:08.080 doesn't want to do so. But unfortunately, the United States doesn't have a clear
00:46:11.280 coherent strategy. It's passive. Therefore, it can be manipulated into sending a
00:46:15.520 ground invasion, okay? And the second question is, will Israel and the United States 0.64
00:46:20.220 use nuclear weapons? And the answer is no, because it's not in their best interest
00:46:24.600 to use nuclear weapons, okay? Israel wants the United States to lose this war, and so
00:46:29.940 that means a long war that destroys the American political will to fight any more
00:46:34.640 foreign wars if america loses israel becomes a dominant power in the middle east okay
00:46:42.720 i'm wondering how many u.s politicians know this and just don't care because they're blackmailed
00:46:47.040 but so many definitely do that israel has ulterior motives they don't care and there's no evidence
00:46:53.840 at all that shows israel cares about american lives or our country as a whole at all why would 0.50
00:46:59.040 they they clearly hate jesus they have jesus as ronald mcdonald their museums it's a jewish state
00:47:05.600 and they reject jesus america is a predominantly christian state why would they care why would
00:47:10.880 they have any interests in america there's no specific reason and there's probably an equal
00:47:18.880 amount of politicians in trump's administration right now that know this but the others are just
00:47:25.440 clueless but so many do know this and are just blackmailed so much that they don't care that
00:47:29.200 they're going to send their country to die and so the last question is the al-aqic mosque and 0.98
00:47:35.360 we'll answer that next class on thursday any questions okay new lesson on thursday
00:47:43.760 will will americans take over iran like what they did to venezuela like they captured their president 0.57
00:47:51.120 Okay, look, the strategy in the beginning was to kill Venezuela and Iran. 0.97
00:47:55.160 You go in, you kill a leader, a new leader emerges and goes with you and surrender to you because you're too powerful. 0.95
00:47:59.560 But Venezuela and Iran are two very different countries.
00:48:03.420 The Venezuelan elite is very pro-American, meaning that their wealth, their children, their family is stored in America.
00:48:10.940 Therefore, the Venezuelan elite have a vested interest in negotiating a deal with America to protect their own interests.
00:48:16.100 But for 40-plus years, America has sanctioned the Iranian elite, and Iran has become poor and angry and disgruntled because of that.
00:48:24.520 Therefore, they lose nothing by fighting you, okay?
00:48:28.100 So even though you've killed the supreme leader, and you've killed many other leaders, in fact, the elite themselves are unified in opposing you, okay?
00:48:35.100 Does that make sense?
00:48:36.100 Okay, any more questions?
00:48:37.100 Yep.
00:48:38.100 Alan?
00:48:39.100 So, I've heard a question about the motivation of U.S. to involve in this war.
00:48:43.100 involved in this war.
00:48:44.100 As you said, the U.S. wants to control the oil, so they must destroy Iran. 0.96
00:48:47.600 But I think this is a little bit confusing, because I think the U.S. know that this war
00:48:50.480 is really highly risked, and it can potentially even destroy the whole systems.
00:48:54.060 So why U.S. risk the risk of whole systems collapsing to control the oil that Iran had?
00:48:59.260 So this is the key question that everyone's arguing about.
00:49:02.340 Quite honestly, we're going to argue this for the rest of eternity, okay?
00:49:04.860 We're going to argue this for eternity because no one knows, and there's never going to be
00:49:07.980 a clear answer.
00:49:08.980 In fact, there are multiple possibilities, okay?
00:49:11.420 What I'm going to do today is offer you the most simple explanation, and in the next class
00:49:15.280 I will offer you a much more complicated explanation, okay?
00:49:17.560 The simple explanation is this.
00:49:19.060 The more complicated one is this blackmail and brainwashing, but the shorter answer is, let's see.
00:49:25.100 This goes back to military doctrine, how the United States military works, okay?
00:49:31.480 And the military doctrine is prevent the heartland from arising, right?
00:49:36.000 So the United States is here, this is Europe, this is Russia, this is Iran, India, China,
00:49:48.780 Japan, this is the Middle East, and this is Africa. 0.96
00:49:55.280 Alright, so, the American military doctrine is this, the greatest threat to American power
00:50:02.720 is the heartland unifying, okay?
00:50:06.540 Why?
00:50:07.380 Because if the heartland unifies,
00:50:08.340 it can trade by itself through railways.
00:50:12.660 But America is primarily a naval power.
00:50:15.540 Therefore, it requires people to trade by sea, okay?
00:50:19.480 And so its strategy is to make sure
00:50:21.580 there's never any cohesion in the heartland.
00:50:25.620 Either by making sure that no great power arises
00:50:28.740 in the heartland, and that's why America went to war 0.50
00:50:30.720 in World War I and World War II,
00:50:31.900 Because there's a great fear that Germany would conquer the world or Europe and Asia and create the heartland, okay? 0.96
00:50:37.460 Therefore, America has to stop Germany from rising. 0.92
00:50:40.580 No, no, it was about the gas chambers.
00:50:43.280 So you either make sure no great power arises or you create so much conflict that they're always fighting each other.
00:50:48.000 And that used to work before, okay?
00:50:50.320 Now, there's a problem.
00:50:51.720 The problem is the BRICS nations.
00:50:54.320 Russia, Iran, and China are coming together.
00:50:56.180 And if they come together, guys, that's a major piece of the heartland.
00:50:59.260 And everybody else, Europe, Middle East, Africa, India would probably follow, okay? 0.99
00:51:03.440 Because it's easier to trade in the heartland than this trade with America,
00:51:06.500 especially with the U.S. dollar declining, right?
00:51:09.900 So, in other words, the United States has no choice but to fight this war
00:51:14.980 because that's their entire strategy to maintain hegemony in the world,
00:51:18.240 to prevent the heartland from unifying, all right?
00:51:22.660 Does that make sense?
00:51:23.240 Because once you destroy Iran, the heartland fractures. 0.99
00:51:29.260 there's no way that they can now trade together anymore they're still reliant somebody just said
00:51:33.100 goy chambers it's quite literally the opposite of that on american um maritime routes okay
00:51:41.580 america maintains a head is still a hegemon because it controls world trade whoever controls 0.74
00:51:46.300 world trade controls the world where there's a heartland controls world trade okay does that
00:51:50.540 make sense okay but this is just one explanation there's actually other explanations i'll go into
00:51:54.940 a more complicated explanation next class all right any more questions all right great lecture
00:52:00.220 professor jang