SHNEAKO - March 11, 2026Professor Jiangļ¼ Why Iran is WINNING this War!
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Summary
In this episode, we continue our analysis of the U.S. and Iran war, and focus on the three questions that will determine the outcome of this war: Will the United States launch a ground invasion, will Iran use nuclear weapons, and will they destroy the Al-Aqsaq Mosque?
Transcript
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the united states would have to institute a national draft where a young man as young as 18
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be forced to join the army and be sent to fight in iran okay you already know what to do they
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show up at those draft papers hello sir are you ready to die for israel no you know what to do
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don't listen uh what's his name lindsey graham saying your sons and daughters need to die
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senator of south carolina nope and we might find ourselves in a nuclear apocalypse okay
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So that's a great concern that everyone has right now.
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This is the third holiest site in the Islamic world.
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There's Mecca, there's Medina, and there's the Al-Aqsaq Mosque.
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If the religious Jews, the extremists, destroy the Al-Aqsaq Mosque,
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then the two billion Muslims in this world would be religiously obligated to go to war against Israel.
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so now i want you to understand something which is that for my theory to be valid for my analysis
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to be valid i have to be i have to correct on all three okay if i miss one then all my theory is
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wrong i know there's a concern from around the world that nukes will be used and i'm 100 percent
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parkland that i don't think so either well obviously not 100 but i don't think nukes are
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going to be used. The threat of Putin, just too much going on. Too many players involved. I think
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Trump's tempted to do, but he won't do it. But I agree. Al-Aqsa Mosque, they are rubbing their
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hands together, ready to get that done. So this is a new Jeng lecture on the Iran war. It's called
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The Law of Escalation. We have another Jeng collab coming in a month. Look forward to it.
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The last one was great. Let's see if he gets more predictions correct. Predictive history.
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And in this war, there are three major questions that will determine the outcome of this war, as well as the world afterwards.
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These three questions are, number one, will the U.S. launch a ground invasion?
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So right now, the United States and Israel are primarily focused on an air war, striking Iran from a distance.
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And as long as it remains an air war, the United States can choose to de-escalate and withdraw from the Middle East.
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They would lose this war, but the laws would not be catastrophic.
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Whereas if they choose to launch a ground invasion, it would escalate very quickly and they would be trapped in Iran for the next 5-10 years.
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It would be a catastrophe whether or not they win or lose.
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Because in order to fight a ground war, the United States would have to institute a national draft.
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Where a young man, as young as 18, would be forced to join the army and be sent to fight in Iran.
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you already know what to do they show up at those draft papers hello sir are you ready to die for
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israel no you know what to do don't listen uh what's his name lindsey graham saying your sons
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and daughters need to die senator of south carolina nope no so that's the first big question for us
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will the united states send in ground troops remember this there's the idea of mission creep
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where maybe in the beginning you're like i'll send a thousand troops to do a small mission
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but then it doesn't go well so you said in 2000 okay it slowly creeps up it's what we call mission
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creep and that's how the united states embroiled itself in vietnam all right so that's the first
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big question second big question is will nukes be used there's a lot of concern online that israel
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is repairing a nuclear strike on iran because this really don't like how the war how the war
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going and they want to reclaim the initiative nukes are a taboo in geopolitics the americans
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used them at the end of world war ii and no one's used them ever since if israel were to use tactical
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nuclear weapons they would whoa trisnico thank you for the 50 gifted 50 gifted bang bang bang
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let's go i appreciate it dawg this universal taboo and we might find ourselves in a nuclear
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apocalypse okay so that's a great concern that everyone has right now and the third question
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is the al-Aqsaq mosque this is the third holiest site in the islamic world there's mecca there's
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medina and there's an al-Aqsaq mosque the muslims believe that it is from the al-Aqsaq mosque in
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jerusalem where muhammad ascended to heaven and the jews is that true did you get that wrong
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someone fact check it thank you for the 10 gifted anonymous i appreciate it is that where you said it
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thank you anonymous yes okay booze believe that the electric mosque sits on the site of their
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temple which is the house of god so religious Jews extremists want to destroy the electric mosque
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to rebuild the third temple and if the religious Jews the extremists destroy the asset mosque
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then the two billion muslims in this world would be
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religionally obligated to go to war against ishbiel
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these are the three big questions that um uh will determine how this war will determine
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the future of the world okay so um in this class i teach you game theory to make predictions about
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the future so right now i'm going to make three predictions um and then i'm i will show you my
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analysis as to how i make these predictions okay now what's important to understand is that these
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are only my guesses based on my analysis and whether or not they try to be correct will
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determine the validity of my analysis i don't have inside information i don't know more than you do
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okay i'm just working out of public knowledge yes we knew we know you're a ccp spy who's
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communicating with demons in order to brainwash the western people to be doomsday cultists we
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know i'm joking let's see though and doing game theory analysis so according to game theory this
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is yes the united states will send in ground troops according to game theory this is no
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and number three is yes okay so what i'm going to do is my next two classes explaining to you
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my game theory analysis as to how i come to these conclusions and we can watch how world events
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unfold now i want you to understand something which is that for my theory to be valid for my
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analysis to be valid i have to be i have to correct on all three okay if i miss one then all my theory
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is wrong um i know there's a concern from around the world that nukes will be used and i'm 100%
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parkland that i don't think so either well obviously not 100 but i don't think nukes are
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going to be used uh threat of putin just too much going on too many players involved i think trump's
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tempted to but he won't do it but i agree alaksa mosque they are rubbing their hands together ready
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to get that done nukes will not be used at this time in this war and if i'm wrong i apologize to
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the world okay but at the same time we'll all be dead anyway so it doesn't really matter all right
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okay all right so let me explain my analysis okay so remember today what i'm going to do is do number
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one and number two explain to you why israel will not use nuclear weapons and why there will be a
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ground invasion and then next class i'll explain number three to you okay that's a plan for this
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week all right so to understand what's going on i need to i need to teach some basic geopolitical
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theory okay so in military uh affairs in geopolitics there's a concept called escalation ladder
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the haters that started to do a coordinated attack on jang they're like he just writes
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random stuff on the board and then says it so iran is muslim muslim it doesn't do that he writes
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subjects and it's important the information that's not important although it can be a little messy
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sometimes it is important the dominant theory is that whoever has estrogen dominance has the most
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advantage okay so so what this means is let's say you and i get in a fight okay i have a knife you
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have a gun well gun is more dominant than a knife therefore you have a greater advantage over me
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and therefore you should win in theory okay and apply to this war in the middle east israel and
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The United States have exclusion dominance because they have nuclear weapons, and Iran doesn't.
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Therefore, the United States and Israel have a huge advantage.
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Wait, but Lindsey Graham told me that Iran had nukes.
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Mark Rubio and Pete Hexat, they said that we can't allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.
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I thought that the Muslims were going to bomb me.
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But what I will show you today is that this theory is incorrect.
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Let's just say that two people get into a fight, okay?
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And how the escalation ladder will work is that maybe A and B run into each other, okay?
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Professor John is too smart and too late to joke with, and honestly, I think he's the most accurate.
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small conflict no one knows uh why and no one knows who's at fault okay so they start
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cursing each other okay so the first step is a conflict chad who does this remind you of
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second step is they start cursing each other right screw you yeah screw you and then they might start
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pushing each other right push push and then they hit each other okay punch punch and then they start
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the fight and then one pulls out a knife and the other pulls out a gun all right and then b shoots
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dead a fight over right okay so there are certain things that we need to keep in mind about this
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example first of all the fight is not contained in its yo it's easy to go is that drake what the
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whoa think of it 50 gifted bang 50 gifted holy moly back to back bro appreciate it big time let's go
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nice because you never i really don't get that many gifted in the chat i appreciate you big time
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thank you about this example first of all the fight is not contained in itself okay you cannot
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perceive this game as just one between a and b who's physically stronger there are other players
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involved as well okay so for example there are spectators or friends there's a crowd watching
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you okay it's important because there's also the police right eventually the police will come
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um the government and they'll ask people hey what happened man whose fault was it
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right and also for people who are religious there's also god right if you die you have
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to go up to god heaven and god's gonna ask you hey man how did you die so you have to explain
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how you died all right so in other words in this escalation ladder there are three factors that
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you have to consider that drive people up this escalation ladder okay can you guys let me lock
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in on the lecture oh my god thank you thank you keep on gifting thank you so much anonymous thank
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you these three factors are of course emotions second uh is power and the third is reason or
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logic okay and what drives people up is adrenaline in other words it's impossible to go to skip
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escalation ladder right you don't go from like hey screw you to like the guy pulling out a gun
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and shooting you okay you have to go step by step by step because adrenaline is rushing in your
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system and this adrenaline it's making you more angry but it's also making you stronger and more
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resolved and it's also telling you how to fight this battle okay and the thing to remember about
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this is this is really important is that it's not about how fast you climb up the escalation ladder
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okay if you get too angry and you over react then you are at fault right what you want to do is
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climb it up straight you can't spike cortisol first so everyone is going to think that you
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got frame mauled by iran strategically and that means you have to remain calm and controlled
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because if you remain calm controlled you have three advantages over your opponent the first is
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um focus second is who's going to win the gift war anonymous or trizzy the goat
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What this means is that you know what you're doing.
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You're clear about how to achieve your strategy and your goal.
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But in order to have all three, you have to remain calm.
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And therefore, you need to control yourself as you climb up this escalation ladder.
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Remember, it's just not about being your opponent.
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It's about justifying yourself to your friends, to the police, and to God as well.
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Because you might hit that person, he might go to the hospital, and you've won the fight,
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but then you go to prison for 10 years, in which case, you've lost the fight.
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So, the main idea I want you to remember is this, and this is the law of escalation.
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and this is a very important idea in my game theory model control is more important than
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dominance okay control is more important than dominance why because control is the idea of
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calibration calibration means that you time or you structure or you strategize your response
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in a way that helps you achieve your strategic objective okay you're not just throwing punches
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you're throwing a punch in a certain way that allows you to defend yourself that strikes fear
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an opponent and also allows you to seem as the good guy among spectators okay and then when the
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police come you can justify why you threw that punch in a certain way to the police so that you
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don't go to jail okay thanks you're right all right so another way of saying this is that
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calibration is ultimately about strategic flexibility and the idea of strategic flexibility
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is in a fight the person who has the most options the person who has the most special strategy will
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usually win the fight okay there's a lot of escalation and i'll explain to you how this
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applies to the u.s iran war okay okay all right so before i actually talk about the war what i
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what i want to do is do is what i want to do is do a thought experiment to examine how we can
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understand what's going on between united states and iran okay so let's do a thought experiment
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and the thought experiment is this all right jang let's just say that there's a bully okay
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and he's the biggest guy in the school and he has a gang okay these are his friends
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and there's like uh maybe four of them and so what they do is they basically prey on
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everyone at the school okay and there's gonna be a hundred people at the school
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all right and so what they do is they make everyone in the cafeteria pay a tax
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okay go in the cafeteria and eat you have to pay a tax
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maybe a dollar who knows okay Chad this school is called Hustlers University
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the friends of a bully go collect a tax and then give him all the money okay and
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where if you want to eat lunch in the cafeteria,
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and the bully shares the money amongst his gang, okay?
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because they think that it's actually beneficial
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because the bully is keeping the peace and order
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So yeah, I pay a dollar, but it's not that much money,
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and we're all safe so that we can all enjoy our lunch
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But then what happens over time is that the bully gets more and more arrogant because he feels invincible.
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And the idea of hubris is that no one has the courage to challenge me.
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Everyone's afraid of me, and therefore I can do what I want.
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Well, the first thing he does is that he charges more money from everyone, okay?
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They don't understand why they're paying more to the bully, okay?
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But knowing that, what he will also do is pay less money to his friends
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so that he can have more money because he wants to buy a car
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or he wants to go to Paris for the summer, okay?
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and he doesn't really understand the rules of the game it's like star wars and he doesn't know
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he's supposed to pay a tax right so the bully's friend comes over and says hey man where's the
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dollar and he's like what dollar i just got here and he refuses to pay and so what they decide to
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do is teach him a lesson by ostracizing him by making him sit alone by himself in the couch
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this is the plot of godfather 2 where vito corleone is in little italy in new york city
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and there's a mob boss who wants to take tax from everybody and he's harassing deli owners
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and getting people fired so that he can employ his own nephew at the store
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and then actually vito corleone says enough is enough and he tracks down that mob boss
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and he makes him sleep with the fishes terrier okay you have no friends because you don't know
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the rules and you refuse to play along and the new kid is like i don't care i'm happy not having
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And so then the bully and his friends start to discuss,
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they're going to curse him, they're gonna bully him, okay?
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So the new kid goes to lunch and he's eating his lunch
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and the friends come down and start to curse him.
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He says, you're a wimp, do you wanna fight us?
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And what the new kid does is he just ignores these guys.
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and slowly what happens is that the other people the other kids recognize that wow maybe it is
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possible to rebel against the bully maybe it is possible these stupid taxes and so they start
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talking to him secretly okay they give him presents they start to say smile at him and say hi to him
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okay but the new kid just ignores everything right and then the friends are like you know what we
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don't actually benefit this much from this relationship anyway maybe if we appoint this
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new kid as the new bully the new boss he'll treat us better and then you have other friends who are
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like you know what this bully he's he's fat he's ugly maybe i should be the boss okay so just you
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guys think this is a jang therapy session this is not his origin story because the new kid comes in
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doesn't know the rules and he's willing to challenge the reality challenge the assumptions
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the values of this cafeteria now there's dissent now there's rebellion going on okay and different
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people are talking to him and um trying to form alliances with him but what he does and it's
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really interesting is that he just ignores everyone and keeps focused okay and then one day
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um the police friend comes over and says you know what you're a whip and the new kid finally says
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i'm not afraid of you okay and this friend goes back and tells his boss hey this new kid said he's
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not afraid of you man what do you do about it now nope and the bully gets really angry and says i'm
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going to go punch his face okay so the bully goes in front of new kid and says if you don't apologize
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i'm going to punch you in the face and the kid's like what did i do wrong what should i apologize
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for and the bully's kind of confused so he goes away comes out next day and says you're apologizing
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And then eventually, the bully gets so pissed off
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The new kid, he's hurt, but he decided to punch
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And the bully's stronger, so he beats the bully up.
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But what's happened now is that everyone in the school
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seen that the bully is actually pretty weak and so they recognize that hey if we stand alongside
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the new kid we can beat the bully all right and eventually what happens is the bully is defeated
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doesn't make sense to you guys all right so certain things to understand is that yes
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the bully has escalation dominance because he's stronger in the school he can beat up everyone
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but what wins the fight is control what wins the fight is collaboration sorry
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calibration should you flexibility the fact that the new kid has many different
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options and he's picking the option that is most strategic advantage to him okay
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now what you will notice from this example is the bully doesn't have that
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many options actually because this sounds very familiar oh it sounds very
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very familiar don't you think i'm just gonna say i didn't do it i'm just gonna say that i didn't
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play the song i don't find the song funny i didn't think it was appropriate to do you gotta
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sacrifice that title and this will tard it this is not funny this is horrible guess you're not
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top g anymore stole that shit i'm top g nigga i talk facts
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he needs to maintain the idea of face or credibility right stole it
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this is the essence of his power his power lies on the fact that if you don't listen to him
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if you don't obey him he will come and beat the crap out of you right that's credibility
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but the moment that you show that it's actually it's actually not that big of a deal to be
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punched by him he's not that strong then he loses all credibility okay which means that he either
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retreats or he's forced to strike harder to kill you okay to maintain his credibility so another
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saying this is that um by calibrating your movements strategically you can manipulate the
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bully into self-destruction doesn't make sense you guys all right any questions okay so that's
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a theory all right so now what we're gonna do is we're gonna apply this theory the law of escalation
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to what's happening in the middle east okay we're gonna do why are you guys saying pre-watch dude
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shut up like when when would i have any time to pre-watch this when i'm live literally almost
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every waking moment of every day do that by looking at the escalation ladders of both iran
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and the united states yes shooby he has students there you don't know amber okay
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this is the u.s this is iran okay so let's look at the escalation ladder so the first thing the
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united states does of course is something called decapitation what is decapitation
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decapitation is like I just kill your leaders you don't have any more leaders
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and therefore you don't know what to do and therefore you surrender okay that's
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the first thing the US did it didn't work so now the United States is doing is
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attacking military target air defense and military bases okay that's the second
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second step and the idea is that you beat the crap out of the military so they
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surrender but that didn't work either okay so then what you do next of course
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is economic embargo where you basically prevent Iran from trading with the world
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right prevent Iran from selling oil to China basically by blockading the seas
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and the idea here is that if the government doesn't have any money paid
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soldiers its soldiers will just not fight okay but that didn't but that's not
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working either so then what you do of course is you attack civilian
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infrastructure okay which is probably water and oil and desalination so you
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may have seen the news that this release attacked an oil depot in Tehran and now
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you look if you look at a picture of Tehran it's all black okay and this is a
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war crime or this goes against international law because you're attacking civilians
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but that's what you do when you feel as though you need to apply more pressure to
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win this war okay and so you can keep on escalating and then what you do is that
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Now that you've attacked the civilians and they still refuse to surrender, what you do now is you use secret weapons.
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Secret weapons might be advanced missiles that no one's ever seen before.
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And the point of these secret weapons is to scare the crowd out of people and say, you see how dominant we are?
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If that doesn't work, then what you do next is use biological and chemical weapons.
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doesn't work either then guys nuclear weapons all right so what's really important for us to
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understand is that you must follow this escalation ladder if you are to use nuclear weapons and the
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reality is that first of all we have not seen secret weapons we have not seen biochemical weapons and
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therefore no no they use the goi beam did they not they use the goi beam weapons comes later okay
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unless I see our chemical weapons being used I refuse to believe the nuclear
00:26:34.480
weapons is on the table okay all right so I think we are here which is the
00:26:38.740
beginning of attacks on civilian infrastructure but already we're seeing
00:26:44.060
arguments in the American political system against the use of weapons
00:26:49.780
against civilians okay the reason why is that if you do this okay if you destroy
00:26:54.580
civil infrastructure you unite the people behind the government because the
00:26:59.320
The idea is that you use airstrikes to split apart the government and the people, and you
00:27:03.780
want people to overthrow the government for you, okay?
00:27:08.640
So we are at this stage, meaning that we have a long way to go before we hit nuclear weapons,
00:27:15.320
So now let's look at the Iranian escalation ladder.
00:27:19.680
So what's happening is that in the beginning, Iran does two major things, okay?
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And what they're basically targeting are U.S. radar systems and air defenses.
00:27:36.720
Because once these two things go, then Iran can attack whatever it wants, okay?
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It's also close to Strait of Hormuz, all right?
00:27:49.520
And by closing Strait of Hormuz, you put pressure on the economies of the GCC, as well as East
00:27:55.720
that by locating the economies, the GCC, UAE, Saudi Arabia,
00:28:02.000
Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, will put pressure on Donald Trump
00:28:23.160
But if they're forced to go up the escalation ladder,
00:28:27.280
Someone said straight whore moose, you stupid...
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Bro, it's straight whore moose, not whore moose, idiot.
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Their economy, they will attack your economy as well, okay?
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they will attack your civilian infrastructure as well.
00:28:43.360
And what is the main weakness in these GCC countries?
00:28:52.000
That's the extent of the Iranian escalation ladder because it doesn't have nuclear weapons.
00:29:02.840
Shuck told me that BB-9 Yahoo, thank you BB, he told me they have a nuclear.
00:29:10.220
It doesn't have intercontinental missiles that they can target the United States with.
00:29:14.880
So as you can see, oh, the U.S. and Israel have escalation dominance
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because they can go way up higher in the escalation ladder than Iran.
00:29:24.420
But that's the wrong way to understand this, okay?
00:29:28.020
Because if you look at their strategies, Iran has much more flexibility,
00:29:32.620
much more calibration than the United States, okay?
00:29:36.020
When the United States attacks you, it's pretty blunt.
00:29:38.660
But look, by close to the Strait of Hormuz, I can be strategic in how I close to the Strait of Hormuz.
00:29:42.900
For example, if you're a Chinese ship, I'll let you pass.
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For example, if you are a GCC nation and you want to bribe me,
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if you want to pay me a tax, I'll let you pass as well.
00:29:51.780
If you're a GCC nation and you're like, you know what, forget the United States,
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I want to be a friend of Iran, I'll let you pass as well.
00:29:57.440
So by closing all the straddle moves, it creates a calibration strategy.
00:30:01.500
It allows Iran to selectively and strategically apply pressure
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to the friends of the United States so that they become the friends of Iran.
00:30:10.300
okay same thing with these drone strikes against oil fields and military targets right
00:30:18.540
if you attack me i attack you with drones but if you don't attack me then i don't attack you
00:30:23.180
okay so in other words okay this is a really important idea the u.s
00:30:31.100
and iran have different military decision trees
00:30:36.700
okay all right so let me explain how because the united states and israel they're just attacking
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iran okay and they attack with air power so that's very blunt right okay so you go from one step to
00:30:50.600
the next to the next to the next okay this is this classic escalation ladder iran is not like this
00:30:56.380
their decision tree is different okay because their strategy is to force the united states to
00:31:02.280
to admit defeat and retreat from the GCC, okay?
00:31:06.380
To close down the military bases in the Middle East
00:31:08.400
so that Iran has control over the certain moves
00:31:10.680
and therefore it can control all world trade, all right?
00:31:14.840
So this strategy means that you have different options,
00:31:24.520
your military targets, civilian targets, Tel Aviv, okay?
00:31:28.840
All right, so I don't wanna spend too much time on this,
00:31:30.540
But as you can see, if you think about it, Iran can be much more selective in its targeting than the United States and Israel.
00:31:39.340
And therefore, the options that it has, it is much more diverse, which gives Iran escalation control over the situation.
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All right. So let's look at why Iran has advantages over the escalation ladder.
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The first major difference is that Iran is active,
00:32:14.120
Another thing is, go back to the bully example,
00:32:21.760
So if you provoke him, he has no choice in the matter
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But you, the new kid, can choose whether or not to provoke him or not.
00:32:31.660
You can choose the timing of when to provoke him.
00:32:36.560
The second big difference is that Iran has a clear strategy.
00:32:41.640
It knows what it wants to accomplish, and it knows how to accomplish what it wants.
00:32:46.980
Remember, what Iran wants is control the struggle moves, and the United States out of the Middle
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Banju, thank you for the five. What do you name is Banju for, bro? Thank you for the five.
00:32:58.380
It attacks in a certain way to achieve this end goal, and it's working out very well for Iran, okay?
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The United States, on the other hand, doesn't know what it wants. It wants to destroy Iran.
00:33:06.520
What does that mean, okay? Destroy. It could mean regime change. It could mean economy collapses.
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It could mean the civilian population starves, okay? It could mean anything.
00:33:16.560
But because there's so much ambiguity, so much confusion about what it means, it confuses military strategy, right?
00:33:22.640
And the last thing is, of course, is that Iran is flexible, and the United States is inflexible.
00:33:33.660
So by studying the escalation ladder, we discover that Iran has far more advantages than the United States.
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It means that Iran will probably win this war, ultimately.
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But it has to be major changes to a society in order to win this one.
00:33:57.100
So remember, to win a fight, you have to have three things.
00:34:23.900
Meaning that you have to unite your population,
00:34:35.300
The second thing, clarity, is to censor people.
00:34:42.740
where you're not allowed to film military strikes.
00:34:46.820
If a drone comes and attacks Tel Aviv in Israel, you cannot film that and put it on social media.
00:34:51.820
The government will come and arrest you. Same thing in Dubai.
00:34:54.820
You cannot show Dubai being attacked, so massive censorship is going on.
00:34:58.820
And resolve just means militarization, where the Middle East moves towards total war.
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Total war just means that every citizen now is recruited into the war effort.
00:35:09.820
It just means that the entire economy is geared towards war.
00:35:14.820
and um one last point i'll make is this what we need to understand about the escalation ladder
00:35:19.580
is that as it moves up we have to remember that this war is being fought multi-dimensionally
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okay really dude you just said total war you racist stupid idiot what does that mean it means
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that the military is just one dimension but there are four major dimensions there are others but
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let's focus on four major dimensions okay the first major dimension is narrative narrative
00:35:43.180
is basically world opinion second is political political just means the relationship of nations
00:35:51.740
to each other the relationship of the need of the government to the people okay political
00:35:55.180
the third dimension is economical economic and the fourth is military what's really important
00:36:02.940
to understand is that the military dimension is probably the least important there are other
00:36:06.700
dimensions that are much more important therefore these four factors determine how the united states
00:36:12.700
and iran move up the escalation ladder okay because your purpose is to control the narrative
00:36:18.540
and justify why you're doing what you're doing uh political means you still maintain good
00:36:23.660
relations with other states right so as the united states is fighting this war against iran
00:36:28.380
the united states is still talking to china yes it's still talking to russia yeah so that
00:36:34.220
discussion the political discussion determines the contours of this fight economic means that
00:36:39.820
as this fight is still happening nations are still trading with each other and that factors
00:36:44.220
into how the military is fought okay does that make sense so i know this is very complicated
00:36:49.500
but you need you need to understand how complicated war is it's as simple as saying you know what
00:36:53.420
let's nuke that guy doesn't work that way okay there are a lot of constraints there's a lot of
00:36:57.260
factors a lot of stakeholders involved to constrain the use of nukes okay all right all right so let's
00:37:04.860
now discuss ground troops all right the first question we look at is will ground troops be used
00:37:10.300
and the answer unfortunately is yes they have to be used and it has to do with how the military
00:37:15.740
works okay of how wars are fought basically when you fight a war you have to have a correct
00:37:22.540
cost pyramid okay and the most simple cost pyramid okay is is this infantry soldiers okay
00:37:35.500
all right they're the bottom why because they're the cheapest what about them armor us goyim
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we're the cheapest of the bunch huh okay artillery tanks
00:37:47.820
they're more expensive to produce you need more resources you need more time
00:37:50.620
then you have naval right then you have ear it doesn't make sense this is the cost pyramid
00:37:58.080
and cost pyramid just is this question like how much energy how much time how much resources do
00:38:03.920
you need to produce a certain product okay it costs you very little to produce a soldier but
00:38:08.460
it costs you a lot to produce an airplane this is important because wars are usually wars of
00:38:12.740
attrition meaning that you have to put all your resources in to win the war okay so this is just
00:38:18.080
production capacity. And this is the most standard model that you have of a class
00:38:25.760
pyramid for a military war. Does that make sense guys? The problem is that the
00:38:30.680
United States have an inverse pyramid, meaning that here is what's
00:38:36.800
dominant, then naval, then armor, then soldiers. You can't fight a war like this.
00:38:45.840
I mean the moment you choose to fight a war like this you've lost the war because you either take
00:38:51.060
out the country in like two days or you scoot over but you cannot replenish your forces now
00:38:56.400
I I know this is hard to understand but 1991 the Persian Gulf War 2003 the Iraq War these are not
00:39:03.000
real wars okay because Americans were so dominant and Iraq was so weak that was basically a video
00:39:08.760
game all right because it's these these pilots flying around is bombing everything okay you look
00:39:13.020
the white house propaganda they're trying to make it the same thing right now showing depictions of
00:39:17.100
literal call of duty memes of them bombing iran and tehran the capital making baseball and football
00:39:23.940
memes they're trying to turn it into a video game the same way the iraq war was fought okay it's
00:39:27.580
like guys in tanks just running over the iraqi army those were just video games but this iran
00:39:33.200
thing is a real war and therefore you cannot fight a war like this if you want to win this war
00:39:39.200
the only thing you can do is return to a realistic cost pyramid.
00:39:47.340
Because, again, your cheapest product are soldiers, right?
00:39:55.620
You cannot afford to use an airplane in order to save the life of a soldier.
00:40:00.700
Eventually, this cost-benefit analysis will blow up on you, okay?
00:40:06.260
all right so the United States wants to win this war then it has no choice but
00:40:10.700
to use ground troops to use soldiers as the main force of its military any
00:40:17.300
questions so far all right okay now the question then is will the United States
00:40:22.940
use ground troops I already said that if the United States is to win this war
00:40:26.760
that's no choice but to use ground troops but will the United States use ground
00:40:30.800
troops and a lot is determined by the game theory strategies of the different
00:40:34.940
okay so let's look at goyim duty the four major players in this war you have US
00:40:46.760
you have Israel you have Saudi Arabia and you have Iran okay all right so the
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United States and Iran they're pretty easy to understand what the United States
00:40:58.520
wants to do is destroy Iran okay why he's going to destroy Iran the United States
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would have complete control over Middle East oil and it'll control global trade
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for the Strait of Hormuz and therefore the United States can maintain its
00:41:15.320
empire okay so a really simple objective let's destroy Iran we don't care how we
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don't care why let's just go do it okay Iran has another strategy which is
00:41:23.320
control straight-up moves and destroy CENTCOM. CENTCOM is basically the American
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military in the Middle East called Central Command. So those are two major
00:41:37.060
military objectives of Iran. And we can understand why. Because if CENTCOM is
00:41:40.900
destroyed, Iran has complete control over the Middle East. Now Dubai, now Oman,
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Now Iran, the new kid, is now the bully of the Middle East.
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That's the other thing, because even if you defeat
00:42:12.220
the United States, you start to deal with Israel.
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And Israel is a great military power of the Middle East.
00:42:15.940
So you want to humble them, you want to weaken them.
00:42:21.560
You piss off Israel, those nukes start flying.
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So those are the three major political objectives for Iran.
00:42:45.520
It's funny. Americans don't understand that Israel and Iran actually do have similar
00:42:49.840
objectives. They both want to destroy CENTCOM. Israel does not care about Americans. They don't
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care about CENTCOM. They don't care about the American presence in the Middle East.
00:42:59.180
In fact, Jeng claims that Israel has a much stronger military than the world knows and that
00:43:04.940
it doesn't actually need the U.S. as much as they claim. And so they're kind of a double agent.
00:43:10.140
They're pretending like they need the U.S., but they really want to destroy the U.S. so they
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could get the frick out of the Middle East. Why? Because if you destroy both of the United States.
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What's CENTCOM? CENTCOM is Central Command. It's like the military bases in the Middle East.
00:43:21.860
If you destroy Iran, then you are the sole hegemon in the Middle East, okay? Also destroy the GCC.
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Another. Destroy Saudi Arabia as well. Why? Because once Saudi Arabia is destroyed,
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all its resources belong to you, okay? And this creates something called the Greater Israel
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Project, which is what we'll discuss next class. But as you can see, what's really important is
00:43:43.520
that even though the United States and Israel are allies, their optimal strategy is different.
00:43:55.700
Well, destroy Iran, because if you destroy Iran, you have complete control of this sort
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But you also want to destroy the U.S. and you want to humble Israel.
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So by understanding how each player perceives the game, we can now understand how they will
00:44:20.120
So the United States just wants to destroy Iran.
00:44:22.420
But as you can see, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran all want to destroy the United States.
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You do that by forcing the United States into a long ground war, right?
00:44:34.300
Therefore if you're Israel, you don't want to use nukes.
00:44:41.100
You want to drag this war out as long as possible to force the United States to stand in ground
00:44:47.020
And then you're like, well, why doesn't the United States use nuclear weapons?
00:44:49.860
And the answer is, it's already told you, the escalation ladder.
00:44:52.060
It needs to justify itself to the people, okay?
00:44:55.140
When you do anything, all right, when you do anything, sorry, when you do anything, you
00:45:09.580
soldiers have to believe that they are fighting for a good cause okay you have
00:45:13.120
to worry about public opinion you have to make sure that the world is on your
00:45:17.740
side you have to worry about politics political will you have to make sure the
00:45:21.220
people are unified and you have to worry about enemy or morale you don't want to
00:45:26.580
piss off the person your enemy so much that they go into an extreme they jump
00:45:31.360
the escalation ladder to extreme beyond your control it doesn't make sense okay
00:45:35.200
so as you can see war is extremely complicated it's not just about
00:45:38.620
weaponry, it's not just about resources, it's ultimately about controlling the
00:45:44.320
narrative, controlling the political landscape, okay?
00:45:47.360
Can you move? Can you move? Can you move? Can you move?
00:45:49.360
That is strategically beneficial. Yeah, can you move?
00:45:51.620
Alright? Can you move, animate? Does that make sense to you guys? Okay, so, yeah, so we just answered two questions.
00:45:59.560
Will the United States use ground troops? Yes, it will, because Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Israel will work together to force a ground invasion, even though the United States
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doesn't want to do so. But unfortunately, the United States doesn't have a clear
00:46:11.280
coherent strategy. It's passive. Therefore, it can be manipulated into sending a
00:46:15.520
ground invasion, okay? And the second question is, will Israel and the United States
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use nuclear weapons? And the answer is no, because it's not in their best interest
00:46:24.600
to use nuclear weapons, okay? Israel wants the United States to lose this war, and so
00:46:29.940
that means a long war that destroys the American political will to fight any more
00:46:34.640
foreign wars if america loses israel becomes a dominant power in the middle east okay
00:46:42.720
i'm wondering how many u.s politicians know this and just don't care because they're blackmailed
00:46:47.040
but so many definitely do that israel has ulterior motives they don't care and there's no evidence
00:46:53.840
at all that shows israel cares about american lives or our country as a whole at all why would
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they they clearly hate jesus they have jesus as ronald mcdonald their museums it's a jewish state
00:47:05.600
and they reject jesus america is a predominantly christian state why would they care why would
00:47:10.880
they have any interests in america there's no specific reason and there's probably an equal
00:47:18.880
amount of politicians in trump's administration right now that know this but the others are just
00:47:25.440
clueless but so many do know this and are just blackmailed so much that they don't care that
00:47:29.200
they're going to send their country to die and so the last question is the al-aqic mosque and
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we'll answer that next class on thursday any questions okay new lesson on thursday
00:47:43.760
will will americans take over iran like what they did to venezuela like they captured their president
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00:47:51.120
Okay, look, the strategy in the beginning was to kill Venezuela and Iran.
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You go in, you kill a leader, a new leader emerges and goes with you and surrender to you because you're too powerful.
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But Venezuela and Iran are two very different countries.
00:48:03.420
The Venezuelan elite is very pro-American, meaning that their wealth, their children, their family is stored in America.
00:48:10.940
Therefore, the Venezuelan elite have a vested interest in negotiating a deal with America to protect their own interests.
00:48:16.100
But for 40-plus years, America has sanctioned the Iranian elite, and Iran has become poor and angry and disgruntled because of that.
00:48:24.520
Therefore, they lose nothing by fighting you, okay?
00:48:28.100
So even though you've killed the supreme leader, and you've killed many other leaders, in fact, the elite themselves are unified in opposing you, okay?
00:48:39.100
So, I've heard a question about the motivation of U.S. to involve in this war.
00:48:44.100
As you said, the U.S. wants to control the oil, so they must destroy Iran.
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But I think this is a little bit confusing, because I think the U.S. know that this war
00:48:50.480
is really highly risked, and it can potentially even destroy the whole systems.
00:48:54.060
So why U.S. risk the risk of whole systems collapsing to control the oil that Iran had?
00:48:59.260
So this is the key question that everyone's arguing about.
00:49:02.340
Quite honestly, we're going to argue this for the rest of eternity, okay?
00:49:04.860
We're going to argue this for eternity because no one knows, and there's never going to be
00:49:08.980
In fact, there are multiple possibilities, okay?
00:49:11.420
What I'm going to do today is offer you the most simple explanation, and in the next class
00:49:15.280
I will offer you a much more complicated explanation, okay?
00:49:19.060
The more complicated one is this blackmail and brainwashing, but the shorter answer is, let's see.
00:49:25.100
This goes back to military doctrine, how the United States military works, okay?
00:49:31.480
And the military doctrine is prevent the heartland from arising, right?
00:49:36.000
So the United States is here, this is Europe, this is Russia, this is Iran, India, China,
00:49:48.780
Japan, this is the Middle East, and this is Africa.
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Alright, so, the American military doctrine is this, the greatest threat to American power
00:50:15.540
Therefore, it requires people to trade by sea, okay?
00:50:25.620
Either by making sure that no great power arises
00:50:28.740
in the heartland, and that's why America went to war
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Because there's a great fear that Germany would conquer the world or Europe and Asia and create the heartland, okay?
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Therefore, America has to stop Germany from rising.
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So you either make sure no great power arises or you create so much conflict that they're always fighting each other.
00:50:56.180
And if they come together, guys, that's a major piece of the heartland.
00:50:59.260
And everybody else, Europe, Middle East, Africa, India would probably follow, okay?
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Because it's easier to trade in the heartland than this trade with America,
00:51:06.500
especially with the U.S. dollar declining, right?
00:51:09.900
So, in other words, the United States has no choice but to fight this war
00:51:14.980
because that's their entire strategy to maintain hegemony in the world,
00:51:18.240
to prevent the heartland from unifying, all right?
00:51:23.240
Because once you destroy Iran, the heartland fractures.
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00:51:29.260
there's no way that they can now trade together anymore they're still reliant somebody just said
00:51:33.100
goy chambers it's quite literally the opposite of that on american um maritime routes okay
00:51:41.580
america maintains a head is still a hegemon because it controls world trade whoever controls
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00:51:46.300
world trade controls the world where there's a heartland controls world trade okay does that
00:51:50.540
make sense okay but this is just one explanation there's actually other explanations i'll go into
00:51:54.940
a more complicated explanation next class all right any more questions all right great lecture