SHNEAKO - This is the end of the world.

00:00:00.000 If Trump does maintain his arrogance, if Trump follows hubris and puts a land invasion or invades

00:00:06.220 Iran with 100,000 troops, they're essentially hostages. And when he can't extract the 100,000

00:00:09.880 troops, he will just nuke it because Iran's not going to let the troops leave. Russia says that

00:00:13.680 if U.S. nukes Iran, Russia will use nukes. Putin says that you cannot use nuclear weapons. He does

00:00:18.820 not want nukes involved. So U.S. is kind of facing a checkmate right here because if the U.S. nukes

00:00:23.460 Iran because they can't extract the troops, Russia's already told them, if you use nukes,

00:00:26.800 we're going to nuke and remember for every one ship that usa can build china can build 232 ships

00:00:31.620 this is from the pentagon so basically it's inevitable world war three happens and you can

00:00:36.600 see how the chess move plays out but this is a great video to understand how this is going to

00:00:39.500 happen bro you know what i really want to watch like what's calling my name the most there's lots

00:00:43.100 of great videos from today dude especially now that we see netanyahu's visiting i kind of want

00:00:47.100 to start with the iran trap go out of order and then progress into the this later yeah i think

00:00:53.000 let's start with here okay let's start with here let's go see why and this is uploaded in 2024

00:00:59.120 may 2024 this is before a year before trump bombed iran for the first time and now for preamble

00:01:07.140 netanyahu has just stepped off of his private jet and is meeting with donald trump

00:01:11.880 and i think that the war in iran is imminent i think this is the this is the final crux right

00:01:17.620 here this is the this is what's going to happen next so let's go see why it is inevitable and

00:01:22.200 There's not much we can do. There's nothing really important in protesting or raising your cortisol.

00:01:27.160 This is what was always going to happen.

00:01:29.060 It goes deeper than just modern geopolitics to Trump or Netanyahu.

00:01:32.620 This is part of a greater plan and a destiny that has been following steps for hundreds, maybe thousands of years.

00:01:41.960 Okay, let's start class.

00:01:44.100 So let us summarize.

00:01:46.740 Geo strategy number eight, the Iran trap. This is Professor Zhang.

00:01:48.840 and review where we are so far in the story so um there are three major interest forces that are

00:01:59.480 pushing the united states towards war with iran um the first is the israel lobby nick is cringe

00:02:07.960 he never defends you remember why do you glaze him when he pushes pdf epstein

00:02:12.440 It's called Jewish interest as well as Christian interest, right?

00:02:16.900 Representing the Jewish interest is something called AIPAC.

00:02:22.380 And they have a membership of about 100,000.

00:02:27.980 But they're very wealthy.

00:02:30.460 There are many billionaires in this group.

00:02:33.180 So this group has financial power.

00:02:35.140 In fact, AIPAC is considered the second most powerful lobbying organization in the United States.

00:02:44.440 The first is the Pensioners, okay?

00:02:47.740 There's about 30 million of them, and their lobbying organization is the most powerful.

00:02:52.800 But AIPAC is second.

00:02:54.680 But also in Asia, a lot of these are the prisoners, right?

00:02:57.660 So, for example, the organization Christians United for Israel has 7 million people in its membership.

00:03:09.200 So, together, the Christian Zionists and AIPAC are an extremely powerful force in government,

00:03:16.540 and they want a war in the Middle East in order to advance Israel's interests.

00:03:21.940 Also remember that America is now addicted to empire

00:03:30.620 Because empire represents easy money

00:03:34.000 Venezuela is the perfect example of that

00:03:38.080 Which now we saw today

00:03:39.080 A post in Brick shows that 2-3 billion of that oil money

00:03:42.960 Stolen from Venezuela went right to Israel

00:03:44.960 And the justification for invading Venezuela and kidnapping Maduro

00:03:49.320 was American Empire, Monroe Doctrine, Monroe Doctrine.

00:03:52.520 To be channeled through the U.S.

00:03:56.180 And so there are many people in the U.S.

00:03:58.980 who just basically make their money by speculating on money, okay?

00:04:02.540 So, for example, Wall Street.

00:04:04.520 And that has made Wall Street extremely powerful right now in U.S. policy.

00:04:09.520 Mia Khalifa getting blacked in corner, please.

00:04:11.980 And the third force is Saudi Arabia.

00:04:15.080 Remember that in our discussion of Saudi Arabia, we learned that the major conflict in the Middle East is actually not between Israel and Iran, but between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

00:04:31.940 For Israel, Iran is a security threat because it supports Hezbollah and Hamas.

00:04:39.240 But for Saudi Arabia, Iran represents a threat to its very existence.

00:04:46.200 So Saudi Arabia must resolve the Iran problem soon.

00:04:51.860 Wait, sorry, whose existence?

00:04:54.320 Iran represents a threat to Saudi Arabia, okay.

00:04:56.940 Now, how these three forces manifest themselves is through Trump, okay?

00:05:03.880 So basically, Trump is their champion.

00:05:05.480 And privately, there's a man named Jared Kushner, who is Trump's son-in-law.

00:05:17.460 He's married to Trump's very daughter, Ivanka Trump.

00:05:22.780 And Ivanka Trump literally converted to Judaism in that marriage, right?

00:05:26.280 Because Jews are not supposed to, they're not supposed to betray the intermarriage.

00:05:31.240 But obviously that one was probably looked over by rich Jewish Zionists.

00:05:33.900 They saw how profitable that was.

00:05:35.120 keep a christ-like mindset this is not home these worldly concepts and things hold no worth shut up

00:05:40.480 dork and leave thank you though they probably looked away for that one because of how strategically

00:05:45.440 beneficial that was but yeah ivanka trump did convert to judaism so trump literally has a

00:05:49.680 jewish daughter okay and charl jerry kushner happens to be very good friends with both

00:05:58.320 Benjamin Netanyahu, who is the leader of Israel, as well as Mohammed bin Salman, who is the leader

00:06:05.780 of Saudi Arabia. Now, Jared Kushner's father, Charles Kushner, was a very prominent sponsor

00:06:15.100 of AIPAC. In fact, when Benjamin Netanyahu comes to stay in the United States...

00:06:21.800 Also, you know, it's funny to look back on. Do you know when Trump was saying that he wishes,

00:06:24.920 you know like the weird stuff trump said about ivanka about wanting to sleep with her and stuff

00:06:28.900 like that people did move on from that very very quickly huh he lives with the kushner family

00:06:35.840 so one night uh benjamin nathan yahoo had to stay in jerry kushner's bedroom and jerry kushner had

00:06:42.640 to sleep in the in the uh basement okay that's how close they are what the fuck why and you know

00:06:47.780 that just shows who's in charge like when you say the guest of the house nanyahu stays in the master

00:06:52.720 bedroom and fucking Kushner stayed in the basement holy fuck bro what a power move

00:07:01.440 i know some Arabs would be like okay that is a sign of respect but yeah i don't know

00:07:06.160 it's friendly with MBS the leader of Saudi Arabia so friendly that when Jared Kushner started a

00:07:12.880 private equity fund Saudi Arabia invested two billion dollars okay so for Jared Kushner

00:07:21.620 these three forces are able to exert influence on Trump.

00:07:24.960 As we also discussed, it's very likely that Trump will become President of the United States again in November,

00:07:32.260 and he will pick Nikki Haley as his VP.

00:07:39.640 And that means that Nikki Haley will be the one in the Trump White House pushing for war against...

00:07:45.560 Well, he probably chose J.D. Vance because of the Peter Thiel connections,

00:07:47.860 but Nikki Haley still has a very prominent role in the administration.

00:07:50.960 Iran. As we discussed, Nikki Haley makes most of her money from the Israel lobby, the anti-Iran lobby.

00:08:03.820 We know from the first Trump administration that these forces are able to exert tremendous influence on Trump.

00:08:12.220 And the evidence is, one, Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal that would have secured peace between the United States and Iran.

00:08:22.620 Trump moved the United States embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in Israel, which caused major friction in the Middle East.

00:08:38.540 okay we also know that um trump ignore the fact that mbs killed a journalist okay so i don't know

00:08:50.620 we also know that trump uh a lot of that stuff like i love going to saudi it's like i literally

00:08:55.340 don't even write that now what are we learning today i love to know jake we're learning about

00:09:03.260 iran and trump and what's going on with the war jake has been very friendly with saudi arabia

00:09:07.260 We also know that Trump sponsored the Abraham Accords, which is trying to bring peace between Israel and other Arab countries and unite them against Iran.

00:09:19.380 The last thing that Trump did, which is the most important, is that in January 2020, Trump ordered the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani, who is the leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

00:09:37.260 So from all of this, we can suspect that in a second Trump term, war with Iran will be

00:09:46.320 a major priority.

00:09:47.380 Well, he's right.

00:09:49.500 So is this clear so far?

00:09:51.020 All right.

00:09:52.020 Did I spell it right?

00:09:53.020 We also discussed that, okay, even though there are these forces that want war with

00:09:58.780 Iran, ultimately it is the U.S. military that must implement this war.

00:10:05.380 And if the U.S. military refuses to go to war, then the war can't happen.

00:10:10.560 So we discussed that.

00:10:12.560 Unfortunately, the U.S. military is very different from what it was 30 years ago.

00:10:17.760 30 years ago, the U.S. military maintained very standard military doctrine.

00:10:25.340 They maintained three very important principles that all militaries must maintain in a time

00:10:30.160 of war.

00:10:31.160 The first is mass forces.

00:10:36.100 B is avoid encirclement, right?

00:10:41.760 And the third is protect supply lines.

00:10:46.600 The notes are so hard to read.

00:10:50.100 Now, the important idea is that when you...

00:10:52.500 What did he say?

00:10:53.500 He said avoid...

00:10:54.500 I can't even read this.

00:10:55.500 What did he say?

00:10:57.500 Protect...

00:10:58.500 Avoid encirclement and protect supply lines?

00:11:00.500 warfare you must have the consent of the public okay because it is if we bury epstein files

00:11:07.700 wouldn't it take away the power netanyahu has over trump slash you scoff they have power even

00:11:12.740 without obscene there's overwhelming blackmail it's it's clear that they control regardless

00:11:18.500 that's just like another level sends soldiers that provides money that gives you political support

00:11:23.620 But in 2003, the U.S. military changed its military doctrine to one of shock and awe.

00:11:34.100 And what shock and awe means is that you don't have to follow these three principles anymore.

00:11:40.440 You can use air supremacy.

00:11:44.660 You also have technological omniscience.

00:11:48.720 And you also have special forces.

00:11:50.100 and this allows you to fight war cheaply quickly and decisively so that we no longer need

00:11:59.160 public political support you know exactly nobody voted for venezuela nobody supported that he didn't

00:12:04.920 even get it betrayed international law and then he didn't even need to get it passed by congress

00:12:09.380 so he just did it because he wanted to it's more about intelligence and getting it

00:12:12.640 Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

00:12:21.640 OK.

00:12:22.640 Intelligence agencies fighting wars.

00:12:27.640 And as we also discussed, this created the idea of hubris in the American military.

00:12:36.640 So the American military, because of the Johnson III War in Iraq,

00:12:40.640 Iraq are causing that they can win any war, any place,

00:12:44.360 against any enemy.

00:12:46.540 We know that this doctrine is actually not true.

00:12:52.300 And we know because of something called Operation Prosperity

00:12:56.280 Guardian.

00:12:58.400 So a few months ago, the Houthis, which are a rebel group

00:13:03.580 in Yemen, they started to attack ships in the Red Sea.

00:13:09.760 Okay? And a lot of trade goes through the Red Sea.

00:13:14.500 So the American military dispatched a massive naval force against the Houthis.

00:13:21.560 Were the Americans able to defeat the Houthis?

00:13:25.120 No, they were not.

00:13:28.000 And so what are the Americans going to do about it?

00:13:32.200 What can they do about the Houthis?

00:13:37.820 What's the solution to this problem?

00:13:39.580 You have these pirates, the Houthis, going around and attacking these ships, which is affecting international commerce.

00:13:47.160 And that's why inflation is such a huge problem right now in the world.

00:13:50.920 So what's the American military going to do about this?

00:13:54.120 Sanctions.

00:13:55.320 What can they do about this?

00:13:59.020 The answer is nothing.

00:14:00.300 Oh, shit.

00:14:00.880 Okay?

00:14:01.520 The American military has no solution.

00:14:03.940 Why?

00:14:04.180 Because they don't have the forces necessary in order to...

00:14:09.180 to undertake an operation against the Houthis.

00:14:11.640 They have special forces, they have air supremacy,

00:14:14.380 and they have technological omniscience, satellites,

00:14:17.840 but they don't have infantry.

00:14:19.740 They don't have lots and lots of ships.

00:14:22.420 Therefore, they cannot stop the Houthis.

00:14:25.640 Okay?

00:14:26.620 And what's really important is that Joe Biden has come out

00:14:29.960 and said that, yes, we know we are losing the war in the Red Sea,

00:14:35.500 And yes, we know that we cannot stop the Houthis, but we are going to continue on this path.

00:14:44.100 Okay?

00:14:44.660 Does that make sense?

00:14:45.640 This is the idea of hubris.

00:14:49.160 What's the idea of hubris?

00:14:50.500 Not knowing your limitations.

00:14:53.020 Chad, he's been saying this is the most amount of jam-packed information in any lecture so far.

00:14:57.560 And when you are faced with your limitations, you refuse to accept your limitations.

00:15:03.720 Okay?

00:15:03.960 And that's why when the U.S. military is given the order to invade Iran, they'll probably go along with it

00:15:10.620 because they cannot imagine the possibility that they could be defeated in Iran.

00:15:17.340 And then you have the Iran Revolutionary.

00:15:26.540 I remember when the Iran nuclear deal, Trump was so anti-Iran nuclear deal.

00:15:30.560 So looking back now, you see how much that was demonized.

00:15:34.480 I think I even did fall for that before.

00:15:36.720 It's like, why are we making a deal with these terrorists and stuff?

00:15:39.840 It's like, well, what's the alternative?

00:15:42.440 World War III?

00:15:43.220 Core, okay?

00:15:44.980 The Revolutionary Guard.

00:15:46.880 And as we discussed last class, they want war with the United States

00:15:50.480 because they're very angry about U.S. interference in Iran, right?

00:15:56.580 So during the Shah regime, which was a brutal police state from 1953 and then 1979,

00:16:03.140 the Americans were the ones who were backing this police state.

00:16:07.160 So there are many who are angry about this.

00:16:10.780 They're also angry about the fact that the U.S. continues to protect Israel and Saudi Arabia.

00:16:19.660 And they're also angry about the fact that Trump killed General Soleimani.

00:16:26.580 And as we discussed, it's possible that the Revolutionary Guard Corps killed last week the president of Iran,

00:16:35.520 Ibrahim Raisi, because he was preventing war.

00:16:42.500 So they want war with the United States.

00:16:46.400 So you see the map, right?

00:16:47.940 You see the logic of this, where there are powerful forces in the United States pushing the United States towards war.

00:16:55.260 You have Trump, who has basically agreed in his first term to raise or increase escalation with Iran.

00:17:06.720 Within the Trump White House, there will be Derek Kushner and Nikki Haley to push this war, both privately and publicly.

00:17:13.460 The U.S. military has so much hubris that they think they can win this war,

00:17:18.320 and Iran wants to provoke the United States into invading it.

00:17:22.220 Okay, and Iran can have many, so Iran has many, many strategies in order to provoke the United States into war, okay?

00:17:32.400 Basically, the United States is looking for a reason, and Iran wants to give them a reason.

00:17:35.560 And that's why I think war between the United States and Iran is very likely in the next two to four years.

00:17:42.920 Okay, any questions so far?

00:17:44.060 Are we clear about where we are so far?

00:17:45.920 I'll go over all the notes after this.

00:17:47.720 I'll try to speed on it, because last time I looked back, it was 40 minutes.

00:17:50.060 Any questions?

00:17:50.900 I should do it quicker.

00:17:52.220 So now let's talk about the actual war.

00:17:55.260 Define hubris.

00:17:56.220 Yeah, actually, that is a good definition.

00:17:57.940 You keep saying this.

00:17:58.720 Hubris definition is excessive pride or self-confidence.

00:18:04.420 So even though, okay, so even though the U.S. lost against the Houthis and they couldn't do anything, they still have hubris.

00:18:13.400 Bro, you cannot read anything he's writing on this whiteboard.

00:18:17.220 It might as well be blank.

00:18:18.280 Here, most of it is speculation, okay?

00:18:20.240 But I'm using speculation in order to help us better understand what a war would look like.

00:18:28.420 So let's pretend that it's March 2027.

00:18:34.820 And Trump goes on TV.

00:18:38.400 He announces Operation Iranian Freedom, a full-scale U.S. invasion of Iran.

00:18:46.180 that's coming along with israel saudi arabia as its main partners but the united united kingdom

00:18:53.400 uk will be involved australia will be involved uae will be involved poland will be involved

00:18:58.620 okay so you have many countries attacking um iran together and trump goes on tv and explains

00:19:06.900 american public why the united states is fighting this war okay and this is what trump says he's

00:19:11.800 getting the call. First he says that for the past year there have been violent

00:19:17.260 protests in Iran. You have religious protests, you have political protests,

00:19:22.060 you have ethnic protests. Dude he got it right. Right now they're, you see the

00:19:26.260 Mossad CA, they're firebombing mosques. Everyone's saying, oh my god look how bad

00:19:30.160 these protests are. That just happened like two weeks ago, last week. The

00:19:34.420 Iranian people are sick of the Ayatollah. They are sick of

00:19:39.240 medicatorship. They want democracy.

00:19:41.660 They want freedom. In response,

00:19:44.100 the Russian Guard are killing

00:19:45.540 thousands of protesters.

00:19:48.860 Iran is

00:19:49.540 on the brink of civil war. Therefore,

00:19:51.680 the United States has an obligation

00:19:52.800 to protect the

00:19:55.500 people of Iran.

00:19:56.040 That's exactly what's happening right now.

00:19:59.380 The people of Iran are

00:20:01.580 praying. Marco Rubio is

00:20:03.440 tweeting that we stand with the freedom

00:20:05.560 fighters in Iran. We want to protect

00:20:07.680 the people of iran god bless the freedom fighters in iran democracy democracy democracy for freedom

00:20:13.380 and democracy in the united states the world's greatest democracy must give them democracy me

00:20:18.800 and be sent okay so the first three agents to your little apartment good luck what the chest

00:20:23.800 freedom and democracy

00:20:25.560 second u.s intelligence again once again the former cia director said that the protesters

00:20:34.840 were walking side by side with CIA

00:20:36.700 Mossad agents, former

00:20:38.620 CIA director under Trump's first administration.

00:20:41.340 So I don't know what else, what other

00:20:42.860 proof you need for the fact that

00:20:44.880 intelligence agencies are controlling

00:20:46.980 these protests.

00:20:48.100 Along with Israeli intelligence have discovered

00:20:50.660 that

00:20:51.300 US intelligence, along with

00:20:54.700 Israeli intelligence, have discovered that

00:20:56.940 for the past two years

00:20:58.800 Iran has been working

00:21:00.520 very, very hard

00:21:03.020 on developing a nuclear bomb.

00:21:05.420 In fact, Iran is only one month away from having three nuclear bombs.

00:21:13.360 Right.

00:21:13.920 So that...

00:21:14.560 And the narrative is Iran should not have access to nukes and Iran should not have access to nukes.

00:21:18.680 Why the fuck does Israel have nukes?

00:21:20.540 America has nukes.

00:21:21.380 Why are we dictating who's allowed to have nukes?

00:21:24.560 And so why can Israel have a nuke but Iran can't?

00:21:27.860 New York City, San Francisco, and Los Angeles could all be destroyed.

00:21:33.440 Okay?

00:21:33.640 OK, so to prevent this, we must strike first to stop Iran's nuclear program.

00:21:40.400 OK. Third.

00:21:47.740 Iranian proxies, the Houthis, Hezbollah, many groups have been disrupting shipping in the Middle East.

00:21:56.060 Your name is Sneeko. Get a life faggot.

00:21:59.960 Good boy.

00:22:00.300 40% in the Middle East

00:22:02.600 In both the Red Sea and the Shirt of Hormuz

00:22:04.900 40%

00:22:06.760 Of the world's oil passes through

00:22:08.900 That region, mainly to East Asia

00:22:10.820 China, Japan, South Korea

00:22:12.380 Okay

00:22:13.780 So Iran, again, he's going to mention

00:22:16.840 The oil and Venezuela

00:22:18.180 So Iran connects

00:22:20.640 Oil

00:22:22.760 Trade to China

00:22:24.740 Japan, South Korea

00:22:26.340 I thought it was mostly Europe, I didn't know it was Asia as well

00:22:28.940 Our global prosperity is at stake.

00:22:34.060 We must go to war to protect these shipping lanes and ensure that the oil goes to China, Japan, and South Korea

00:22:40.000 so that they can continue their economic prosperity.

00:22:44.240 So, the United States has the world hedge fund.

00:22:47.920 Paul, being an agent in the Bible is good.

00:22:50.620 Dr. Roy Casagranda, good.

00:22:52.480 We'll get to that.

00:22:53.040 To protect global prosperity.

00:22:57.480 Okay.

00:22:58.940 Four, Iran has been launching attacks against our allies, Saudi Arabia and Israel.

00:23:10.040 Even though Israel just bombed Qatar, they just bombed Doha, which is our ally.

00:23:13.880 Israel just bombed Doha and Qatar last month, and we didn't do anything or mention that at all.

00:23:19.520 Has been violently attacking Israel, killing dozens of Israelis, innocent Israelis.

00:23:25.920 Bang.

00:23:26.260 The Houthis have an attack on Saudi Arabia oil fields, damaging the economy.

00:23:32.140 We have an obligation to protect our allies, our friends in the Middle East.

00:23:38.600 And the last reason is, we know for a fact that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is a sponsor of terrorism.

00:23:48.500 Last week, in a mall, there were gunmen who went and killed 107 people.

00:23:57.720 You were a cute kid, me, and Jeffrey would have tag-teamed the fuck out of you.

00:24:01.360 It was definitely an Iranian operation.

00:24:05.300 Okay?

00:24:05.940 So for these five reasons, we have decided to invade Iran.

00:24:13.040 How you manage to maintain 5K viewers with these educational segments is beyond me.

00:24:18.600 Get mad then, Yahoo.

00:24:20.140 But don't worry.

00:24:22.260 This invasion will be successful because we have a lot of allies.

00:24:29.040 The UK, Israel, Saudi Arabia.

00:24:31.040 You should check out S.H. Cameron.

00:24:32.680 It's Iran's version of A.V.

00:24:33.980 Shut up, TTS.

00:24:34.860 Put it in $20.

00:24:35.840 Shut up, dude.

00:24:37.020 Can I focus on this before you?

00:24:38.220 Oh, you should check this out.

00:24:39.720 Okay, cool.

00:24:40.840 Sick, dude.

00:24:41.560 Sick.

00:24:41.980 Great suggestion.

00:24:42.760 Thank you for interrupting.

00:24:43.420 Our friend, we're part of this operation.

00:24:45.300 Put it up now.

00:24:46.200 Our special forces are already in the country looking for their air bases and their missiles.

00:24:53.540 We can knock them out at the beginning of the war.

00:24:56.080 Also, we have been in contact with Iranian opposition groups.

00:25:00.940 They want to overthrow the regime.

00:25:02.560 And when we help them, they will install democracy in the country.

00:25:08.440 Our American military is the greatest in the world.

00:25:12.600 In 1991, our military defeated Saddam Hussein in 100 hours.

00:25:19.500 In 2003, our military defeated Saddam Hussein in less than three weeks.

00:25:24.680 To prove that we are the greatest in the world, we will defeat Iran in only two weeks.

00:25:33.300 So do not worry.

00:25:35.620 We will be strong in protecting democracy, freedom, and global prosperity.

00:25:42.600 So that's what Donald Trump will say to the people of the United States

00:25:48.560 Just like he was bragging about how quickly they were able to topple Venezuela

00:25:51.700 And of course, you're going to have large-scale protests throughout the country opposing this war

00:25:57.440 But most people in the country will support this war

00:26:02.220 So after the speech, the operation is launched

00:26:07.280 and on tv we'll watch this on tv and the internet together on youtube together okay

00:26:13.160 and we'll be so impressed it actually might be tonight it literally might be tonight

00:26:18.420 now that netanyahu is a mar-a-lago over almost two years since this drops wow is he gonna go

00:26:24.240 live tonight and react by the power of the u.s military um this is iran this is the strait of

00:26:32.780 You put me onto this professor, thank you.

00:26:36.540 Stream W content, ignore the noise my nigga.

00:26:40.400 Thank you bro, I appreciate it,

00:26:41.260 but you literally are the noise right now.

00:26:42.880 Arabia, Israel is here, Red Sea is here,

00:26:50.400 Iraq is here, okay?

00:26:52.500 So, in the stream of Hormuz comes the USS Gerald R. Ford.

00:26:58.160 It's a 13 billion dollar super carrier, okay?

00:27:02.780 This thing is designed to destroy countries.

00:27:05.860 It is now prowling the Strait of Hormuz.

00:27:09.800 What is this? It's a ship?

00:27:12.140 So patrolling the Strait of Hormuz is a USS...

00:27:14.540 ...quite countries. Supercarrier.

00:27:16.600 The USS Gerald R. Ford.

00:27:19.720 A $13 billion...

00:27:21.640 Of course it's $13 billion.

00:27:23.620 $13 billion supercarrier ship.

00:27:27.760 is patrolling

00:27:33.460 wait let's look this up

00:27:36.200 hold on

00:27:36.540 he's giving so much

00:27:37.880 information quickly

00:27:38.620 USS

00:27:39.360 shut up Jake

00:27:41.720 this is the USS

00:27:47.720 Gerald Ford

00:27:48.480 USS Gerald R. Ford

00:27:51.460 this is big ass

00:27:56.120 13 billion dollar ship

00:27:57.580 oh i've seen videos of the houthis invading this wait a second this looks like that ship that the

00:28:04.800 the houthis got on right houthis gerald is that when uh you saw the pirates invade

00:28:10.500 or is that a different ship houthis invade ship right this one

00:28:20.020 this this video remember these are the houthis on it right

00:28:25.260 uh it's not the best footage i have it in my in my stream intro the little dark age yeah this one

00:28:35.420 yemen houthis release video hijack oh it's not the gerald r ford but

00:28:39.780 something it's like a same concept it seems the gerald r ford is bigger yeah this footage here

00:28:44.260 look at that you guys ever see what ship was this

00:28:47.000 what ship is this you guys said it's um oh that was just a ship oh okay

00:28:54.280 damn

00:28:57.600 you said it's like little kids taking over

00:28:59.680 dude you look at this you're like

00:29:10.340 who

00:29:10.820 who are you rooting for

00:29:13.040 okay this thing is designed

00:29:16.360 to destroy countries

00:29:17.560 it is now prowling

00:29:19.840 the surgical moves to ensure

00:29:22.520 that shipping is safe

00:29:23.960 America establishes air supremacy very quickly okay meaning it has complete

00:29:29.720 control over the skies nothing can move in the skies without America detection

00:29:36.420 okay and then a massive invasion force is sent to Iran in the south hundred

00:29:46.280 thousand US troops land maybe 200,000 Saudi Arabia troops land okay maybe you

00:29:53.160 have 300 000 to half a million troops in iran and they are about to strike to ram in the north okay

00:30:02.200 so in the south the united states and its allies have established a foothold they have a huge

00:30:07.240 presence in the country and they're i was on the ford in the navy they are out on deployment right

00:30:12.680 now this guy is right okay yeah i know i saw that they there's also flight logs they're saying that

00:30:18.040 That any Americans that are in Iran right now, be careful about the airport.

00:30:23.000 And you're saying, oh, shout out to you, man.

00:30:24.300 A real soldier saying that you're, okay, so this is, it's about to happen, huh?

00:30:29.260 All right.

00:30:30.520 Do you understand what has happened?

00:30:33.680 Okay.

00:30:34.760 Now I want to ask you this question.

00:30:36.620 At this point, I think the war has been decided.

00:30:40.580 Who has won the war?

00:30:42.860 America is real.

00:30:45.240 America has established air supremacy.

00:30:47.140 It controls the skies.

00:30:49.560 U.S. Navy controls the seas.

00:30:52.320 You have 100,000 U.S. troops in-country ready to strike Tehran.

00:30:57.060 The war hasn't been decided.

00:30:58.300 Who has won the war?

00:31:03.760 Okay, obviously this is a trick question.

00:31:05.820 Obviously Iran has won the war.

00:31:07.520 Why?

00:31:08.600 Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.

00:31:10.520 Why?

00:31:11.300 What?

00:31:14.920 What's the problem with this plan?

00:31:16.360 Okay.

00:31:17.140 This is typical American doctrine, shock and awe.

00:31:19.340 This is how they fight wars.

00:31:20.580 But there's a problem with this plan.

00:31:21.840 What is it?

00:31:27.540 I don't know.

00:31:29.640 Why would the Iranians want this?

00:31:31.780 Sorry, it was a question of my fault.

00:31:35.240 Why would the Iranians want this?

00:31:42.040 Speak up.

00:31:42.760 Okay, let's go back to traditional military doctrine, okay?

00:31:47.680 In traditional military doctrine, you have three principles, right?

00:31:50.740 Mass forces, avoid encirclement, protect supply lines, okay?

00:31:55.500 These are three things you must absolutely obey if you are going to war, okay?

00:32:01.540 So using traditional military doctrine, explain to me why the United States has lost the war right now.

00:32:06.760 I'm in the Navy. I'm in ABH. My job in Puerto Rico right now. Wait for a flight to the Ford.

00:32:11.440 what god bless you and i hope you're safe so they're ready to do why would you sign up for

00:32:19.980 the navy so that you could die for jews bro i don't get why you would do that we're all blessings

00:32:24.660 to you and good luck if you get deployed and good luck on the ford exactly first of all they're in

00:32:32.540 circle okay you know why because iran are all mountains it's a fortress okay meaning that to

00:32:39.800 get these troops into the country you have to air drop them right but guys

00:32:48.020 once you're in the country you can't get them out of the country you understand

00:32:52.760 okay so that's the first part they've been in circle right what's the second

00:32:56.840 They can't actually go worse.

00:33:03.840 Why not?

00:33:06.840 That's right. And why else?

00:33:13.840 Yeah, that's right. So they failed to mass forces.

00:33:17.840 Iran is a population of 90 million people.

00:33:20.840 You will need at least 3 to 4 million soldiers to even think about conquering the country.

00:33:25.840 They've got 100,000 in this country, okay?

00:33:27.760 And as Jack says, you can't move tanks through mountains.

00:33:30.740 They're not designed for mountain warfare.

00:33:33.080 What are you going to do?

00:33:34.880 Okay?

00:33:35.780 So they can't mass forces, and they've been encircled, and what else is the problem?

00:33:42.960 And this is the biggest problem.

00:33:44.040 I don't know.

00:33:47.080 Exactly.

00:33:47.620 They cannot be resupplied, okay?

00:33:49.080 They have no supply lines.

00:33:50.500 For them to be resupplied, airplanes have to drop ammunition, food, into the country.

00:33:55.840 But again, Iran is all mountains.

00:33:58.400 So it's very easy for Iranians to shoot down the airplanes.

00:34:02.640 Does that make sense?

00:34:03.460 When you pass through mountains, you can't see what's on the ground.

00:34:06.040 A random guy with a rocket launcher can just shoot down the helicopter, okay?

00:34:09.720 Which is what the Afghans did against the Soviets in the Afghanistan war.

00:34:14.420 And that's why the Soviets lost the war.

00:34:17.180 A drone can take down any airplanes, okay?

00:34:20.540 So, in other words...

00:34:23.840 Everyone's saying I'm capping I'm not God bless you, Sneeko.

00:34:26.760 I'm an Abhan in the Navy.

00:34:28.360 God bless you, bro.

00:34:29.380 Be safe, bro.

00:34:31.360 They you've been to soldiers, but they're not.

00:34:33.440 I mean, well, I think we're trying to do the right thing.

00:34:35.940 They are hostages.

00:34:38.400 Okay.

00:34:40.680 What?

00:34:41.560 Say that one more time.

00:34:42.840 They're not hostages.

00:34:44.980 They you've been to soldiers, but they're not.

00:34:47.220 What they really are, hostages.

00:34:48.960 Iranian soldiers are hostages?

00:34:50.240 Okay.

00:34:50.840 Or American soldiers?

00:34:51.600 Does that make sense?

00:34:54.640 You have too many people in the country, so you can't get them out of the country, but

00:34:58.160 you don't have enough people to actually launch a strike against Taurab.

00:35:01.540 You can't resupply them, and they've been encircled by Iranian forces.

00:35:05.840 Alright?

00:35:06.840 Does that make sense?

00:35:08.840 Okay.

00:35:09.840 Okay?

00:35:10.840 Okay.

00:35:11.840 Okay.

00:35:12.840 Okay.

00:35:13.840 But the logic of having 100,000 U.S. troops in the country is that once in the country, all the resistance to the regime will rise up and strike against Iraq.

00:35:27.440 There's a lot.

00:35:27.940 The Iranian army will mutiny against the country.

00:35:31.240 Okay?

00:35:31.600 That's the hope.

00:35:32.960 Why do we think this won't happen?

00:35:36.080 I don't know.

00:35:39.240 Why won't the Iranians revolt against their government?

00:35:44.840 Why don't they want to revolt?

00:35:49.580 That's right.

00:35:50.580 Okay, so Iranians hate Americans, okay?

00:35:52.280 Remember that Iranians remember the Shah.

00:35:55.680 From 1953 until 1979, the Shah, the American-supported Shah was running a brutal police state.

00:36:02.400 So brutal that everyone in Iran revolted against the regime, okay?

00:36:06.380 That's number one.

00:36:07.760 Why else would the Iranians not support the Americans?

00:36:13.840 Why? That's the first reason. Iran has a bad history of America. What else?

00:36:27.120 Guys, which country is next door? What happened in Iraq?

00:36:32.680 They saw.

00:36:34.320 America destroyed Iraq, right?

00:36:36.260 A million civilians.

00:36:36.780 In 2003 and 2011, America was there destroying the country.

00:36:41.140 America said that it would bring freedom and democracy.

00:36:44.480 It would bring prosperity.

00:36:45.520 It would bring wealth.

00:36:46.640 But instead, it just destroyed the country.

00:36:48.260 How did that work out?

00:36:48.840 American soldiers were running into houses every night.

00:36:52.380 Killing civilians.

00:36:53.060 Putting guns at children, destroying homes, and arresting men for no reason.

00:37:00.580 Iranians saw all this on TV.

00:37:04.280 They heard about all this from neighbors.

00:37:07.040 So they know that if America comes, it's destroying the country.

00:37:10.300 Not to bring freedom to democracy, not to bring prosperity, it's to destroy the country.

00:37:14.340 That's why they're going to fight.

00:37:18.120 And another reason is...

00:37:19.600 So much as I said, I'm in Iran, we have four or five million troops ready to fight, by the way.

00:37:23.720 Fucking hell.

00:37:24.620 That Iranians think that they belong to a great civilization.

00:37:29.760 So they value their freedom and independence.

00:37:31.860 Does that make sense?

00:37:32.580 They're not going to submit to a foreign conqueror.

00:37:34.300 so why else would the Iranians resist also religion right loyal to Allah the

00:37:48.860 Iranians are religious they believe that that say America is Satan they have a

00:37:56.020 duty a religious obligation to fight Satan okay so for many reasons no way

00:38:00.820 that even people are gonna stand with America you might have a minority but

00:38:06.060 most are gonna resist okay okay so does that make sense okay any questions so

00:38:12.100 far okay so that's a great question why would the Americans think that the

00:38:22.760 Iranian people will rise up and the answer is that they need to justify the

00:38:27.940 the invasion. Does that make sense? They have to have

00:38:32.100 a logical explanation for why this invasion

00:38:35.860 will succeed. Because one of the criticisms against them will be like

00:38:39.280 you need 4 million people to invade Iran. They don't have 4 million soldiers. They have at most

00:38:43.900 1 million soldiers, total throughout the world. They have about

00:38:47.700 60,000 in the Middle East. So they can't get 1 million soldiers. So the only explanation

00:38:51.720 is, okay, well we're going to pretend that once we invade, the people of Iran will support us.

00:38:56.020 you understand so it's not based on truth but but it's a explanation for why

00:39:02.180 the nation will succeed does that make sense not really someone in the chat

00:39:07.840 explain yeah amber speak up oh you know that's a great question okay so that's

00:39:14.680 the propaganda but do they actually believe this and the answer is hubris

00:39:20.180 okay they do believe this because they have hubris and again um it's hard because we're not

00:39:27.760 in their position but once you're in that position where you have access to nuclear weapons when you

00:39:34.100 can kill anyone in the world when you can see everything in the world um it makes you think

00:39:38.000 you're god okay and we we remember like last semester we were reading the greeks the greeks

00:39:44.240 believe the worst thing is hubris because it makes you think you're a god but you're not god

00:39:49.460 And you're going to get into a lot of trouble if you think you're God, okay?

00:39:52.240 Does that make sense?

00:39:53.580 Okay, all right, any more questions?

00:40:00.860 Dude, could Amber speak up?

00:40:03.960 Okay, so Trump says that Iran is one month from developing a nuclear bomb, right?

00:40:13.620 America's been saying this for the past 10 years, okay?

00:40:16.720 Just Google this.

00:40:17.680 And America's like, oh, Iran is only one month away from a nuclear bomb.

00:40:20.840 They already have it.

00:40:21.200 They've been doing this for the past 10 years.

00:40:22.340 They already have it.

00:40:23.140 So do you understand?

00:40:24.260 When Trump gives his speech, there's actually no evidence that any of this is true.

00:40:28.140 Okay?

00:40:28.500 But this is how you explain the invasion.

00:40:32.140 Okay?

00:40:32.880 All right?

00:40:34.020 And chances are that even if Iran possesses a nuclear bomb, they won't use it.

00:40:40.000 Why not?

00:40:41.240 Because they're not evil.

00:40:44.460 That's right.

00:40:44.960 The reality is that

00:40:47.260 The reality is that Israel will

00:40:48.440 Israel has a Samson option, Iran doesn't

00:40:50.400 There's only one way that America can win this war against Iran

00:40:53.020 They can just nuke the country

00:40:54.460 And America will do that

00:40:55.920 If it has a pre-tax

00:40:59.160 Pearl Harbor, perfect example

00:41:01.880 Japan is the perfect example

00:41:03.620 It's something that Iran is very afraid of

00:41:06.960 Okay, so

00:41:07.640 Does it make sense?

00:41:09.700 Alright, so

00:41:11.120 This becomes

00:41:13.320 so American soldiers are trapped in this country okay so now the question then is

00:41:19.300 wait a minute here why would America do something so stupid as send 100,000

00:41:25.440 soldiers into the country for no reason and get them trapped okay so that's a

00:41:31.680 question and what I want to do now is make you the argument that there are two

00:41:37.640 ways that we can prove or provide evidence that this is true okay the

00:41:42.680 first is historical analysis historical analysis means that are there historical examples like this

00:41:49.000 japan okay historical analog hiroshima nagasaki am i a genius if there are then this could be true

00:41:57.160 okay the second method is for game theory analysis why would the actors who are rational do something

00:42:04.360 as stupid as trap 100 000 american soldiers in iran all right so we'll first do historical

00:42:12.040 analysis to find historical analog examples sort of similar similar to this

00:42:16.300 Hiroshima and then we'll look at game theory just to try to reason out the

00:42:21.260 motivation of the actors okay so let's first look at game theory oh sorry sorry

00:42:28.420 let's first look at historical analysis okay okay so let's see there is 415 BC

00:42:36.220 okay in Athens remember that we studied facilities the Pelopidion War last

00:42:42.700 semester okay so so we will now discuss the Pelopidion War the war is for the

00:42:48.160 years for 15 BCE and for the past 17 years Athens have been fighting a brutal

00:42:55.480 war against Sparta okay it's a stalemate and then for whatever reason a man named

00:43:01.860 Alcabaides

00:43:04.300 has a suggestion.

00:43:07.080 His suggestion is, to win

00:43:08.760 the war against Sparta,

00:43:10.720 let's go invade Sicily.

00:43:14.780 And

00:43:14.820 Nicaeus,

00:43:16.720 his opponent,

00:43:19.540 is like,

00:43:20.400 why the hell would we want to invade Sicily?

00:43:23.140 It's far away.

00:43:24.920 And Alcabaides is like, well,

00:43:26.900 because it has a lot of money.

00:43:28.100 And if we invade the country, we can take their money.

00:43:30.040 and it turned out by making this argument

00:43:34.160 the people of Athens really support this argument

00:43:36.900 because the reason why is war was costing them a lot of money

00:43:41.180 and they become addicted to the easy money of empire

00:43:44.260 so they wanted to fight this war

00:43:45.500 so Nicias has this great idea of how to convince people not to go to war

00:43:50.920 and what he says to the people is

00:43:52.840 okay guys, I know you want to fight this war

00:43:55.640 I know that you think this war is a good idea

00:43:58.520 but Sicily is a huge place it has a navy therefore we need a massive expedition

00:44:06.920 force against sir he said historical analysis I thought he said circle

00:44:10.880 analysis oops that's his pronunciation is hard sometimes

00:44:15.080 so an analysis circle analysis in Sicily okay we need at least 5,000

00:44:19.460 soldiers that's a lot okay because a total Athenian population is about 50,000

00:44:23.960 people okay five thousand soldiers is a lot for Athens and we need about a

00:44:29.200 hundred ships and the idea is this is trying to scare people into not agreeing

00:44:36.500 to not fight okay that's the idea the Athenians say that's a great idea let's

00:44:43.220 send a massive force against Sicily and Syracuse so the war can be can be won

00:44:48.500 just like that okay shock and all shock and all so they so the problem though

00:44:55.620 is that never before in its history has Athens sent a large expedition force

00:45:01.220 against another power okay does that make sense 15 the Persians invaded they

00:45:06.800 were invading Athens Athens didn't go invade Persia so when you have sent a

00:45:12.500 massive expedition force against in the country what is your number one problem

00:45:16.280 I don't know.

00:45:18.280 What is the thing that you must resolve?

00:45:20.280 The Athenians didn't really think about it because they had actually no experience in fighting a foreign war.

00:45:33.280 The enemy knows the terrain better than you do.

00:45:35.280 But there's actually a much bigger problem than that.

00:45:37.280 And it is what?

00:45:42.280 The biggest problem is resupply.

00:45:44.280 And this is something that the Athenians didn't think about because they never thought, they never fought a war like this before, okay?

00:45:52.580 So they sent this huge expedition against Sicily, and Syracuse, which was a naval power, were surprised because they were like, why would the Athenians want to invade us?

00:46:02.920 So for the first year, the Athenians were destroying the Syracuse army, and the Syracuse army had to retreat back into their city, okay?

00:46:12.240 And so the Athenians laid siege to the city.

00:46:16.560 The Athenians, Syracuse is here.

00:46:18.740 The Athenians are here.

00:46:19.940 Major Mal, real quick, this is exactly what we're talking about.

00:46:22.840 We'll go back to the historical analysis.

00:46:24.380 So Nanyahu meets Kushner and Witkoff, the head of Trump's sit-down.

00:46:27.800 The prime minister got a briefing at the Blair House on last Friday's Iran talks.

00:46:30.700 Meanwhile, Trump told reporters he thinks Iran wants a deal on its nuclear and ballistic missile programs,

00:46:34.020 and he would be foolish not to take one.

00:46:35.740 So he wants to take a deal.

00:46:36.640 He doesn't want to go to war.

00:46:37.720 Nanyahu flew in and says, nope, we need war.

00:46:40.020 Regulate it.

00:46:40.540 We don't need it regulated.

00:46:41.520 We need bombs.

00:46:42.240 War, war good.

00:46:43.740 Trump is publicly mentioning missiles again.

00:46:45.840 That's a shift worth watching, SourceTY.

00:46:47.260 So is there a live stream of this?

00:46:48.460 We can get into it now.

00:46:49.160 Look at this.

00:46:49.500 Ooh, man.

00:46:53.440 And the Athenians control the sea, right?

00:46:56.660 Okay?

00:46:57.200 So this situation is very similar to this situation, okay?

00:47:01.560 Do you understand?

00:47:02.700 But then what happened was that the Athenians couldn't resupply themselves.

00:47:07.760 And the reason why is Syracuse had also had a navy, and they could stop the Athenian navy from resupplying the Athenian troops.

00:47:15.740 And therefore, the Athenian army was wiped out in Sicily.

00:47:22.260 And this caused the Athenians to ultimately lose the war against Sparta, and it caused the Athenian empire to collapse.

00:47:28.940 Okay? You understand?

00:47:29.740 And again, historians have been trying to figure out for a long time why the Athenians would do such a stupid thing as to send a huge army against Syracuse.

00:47:40.940 Because the risk of failure was catastrophic.

00:47:45.340 Why are you saying Syracuse instead of Sicily?

00:47:47.500 What's the difference?

00:47:48.200 And the only answer is, well, the Athenians had hubris.

00:47:52.900 They never really lost a war.

00:47:54.320 and they had become addicted to empire

00:47:57.380 which is the same situation

00:47:59.780 that America finds itself in today.

00:48:02.100 Does that make sense, guys?

00:48:03.900 All right?

00:48:06.100 So this has happened before in history.

00:48:07.640 So arrogance caused them the war.

00:48:08.660 When the Athenians invaded Sicily

00:48:10.780 and lost to Syracuse.

00:48:12.140 Their entire army was wiped out in Syracuse.

00:48:14.660 Because they couldn't resupply their army.

00:48:17.360 Does that make sense?

00:48:18.720 All right.

00:48:19.540 The second example we can look at

00:48:22.240 is the Vietnam War.

00:48:24.320 so in the beginning of 1960 okay the beginning of the decade perfect example of hubris but

00:48:31.420 i i think world war ii is a good example vietnam war the arrogance of the vietnam war would have

00:48:35.440 never happened without world war ii most americans have never heard of a country called vietnam

00:48:40.940 what's vietnam noguyen win pho what is that bomb them most americans didn't know what it was

00:48:50.700 didn't know where it was, okay? By the end of the decade, in 1969, half a million American

00:48:59.480 soldiers were in the country, destroying everything, okay, but also getting destroyed themselves.

00:49:06.960 58,000 U.S. soldiers died in Vietnam. How many? 50K? So the question then is, how this

00:49:13.580 happened? Why would this happen? 1960, Vietnam was a distant country no one's ever heard

00:49:19.820 of. By the end of the decade, half a million U.S. soldiers were in-country

00:49:24.320 fighting this war against an enemy they really didn't know. In 1971, the

00:49:32.880 Pentagon Papers came out. The Pentagon Papers was a history of America's

00:49:38.960 involvement in the Vietnam War dating back to the 1950s. And it made three

00:49:43.820 major points the first point is that American leadership military leadership

00:49:51.760 has been expanding the war in Vietnam without public knowledge okay this is

00:49:56.880 what we call mission creep look at Minecraft's cooking what do you say so

00:50:01.520 maybe at first they sent some observers mission to the country then they sent

00:50:06.720 some advisors and trainers and soldiers okay so mission creep slowly over time

00:50:12.400 things escalate and you don't really understand why things escalate but they

00:50:16.400 do okay second point is that American leadership from very early on this is

00:50:24.140 some new the war was unwinnable this was the greatest military in the world they

00:50:30.200 dropped more bombs in Vietnam in the 60s then all bombs were dropped in World

00:50:36.680 war two okay and they cannot okay unwinnable america dropped more bombs in vietnam than in

00:50:46.800 world war ii i didn't know that more bombs on nam back in nam than world war ii damn the war

00:50:55.980 the reason why is to win a war you have to solve three problems okay okay the first problem is

00:51:02.640 clear strategy, okay?

00:51:07.880 What are you trying to accomplish in this country?

00:51:12.120 What are your clear military objectives, okay?

00:51:14.940 There was no one.

00:51:15.760 Second is, you must adapt to the battlefield.

00:51:21.280 They don't know how to fight.

00:51:21.840 That's because all your best plans will...

00:51:23.640 They don't know how to fight no Asians in the forest.

00:51:26.040 ...change over the course of a battle, okay?

00:51:28.020 You can adapt to that.

00:51:29.220 The adversary that is most willing to adapt to the battlefield will win, okay?

00:51:34.980 And the third thing is the will to fight.

00:51:38.180 The Vietnamese are like, why are you running?

00:51:40.080 America, why are you running?

00:51:41.940 The will to fight.

00:51:42.640 They had none of that.

00:51:43.660 Nobody supported this war.

00:51:44.560 If you want to look at a war, who's most likely to win the war, you ask these three questions.

00:51:47.780 One, does this guy have clear military objectives?

00:51:51.000 And this is why it's so important for them to spread propaganda, why it's important to push back against this.

00:51:54.540 Because if they don't have the will to fight, if they don't have the support from the people, then the troops are not going to be fighting the war properly.

00:51:59.720 So this is why we need to call this out when war on Iran and everybody happens.

00:52:04.680 Because if the soldiers don't have morale and if the people aren't supporting it, then they lose their will.

00:52:10.840 And they don't have a, you know, if it's not righteous anymore, you can't win.

00:52:17.660 Well, I'm not saying that I'm not advocating that we lose, but I'm just saying it's like if we understand that this war is false, like we shouldn't support it.

00:52:23.840 Everyone understands.

00:52:24.540 because that will determine strategy, okay?

00:52:27.220 Second is, is this guy adapting to the battlefield?

00:52:32.460 And the third is, does this guy still have the will to fight?

00:52:39.020 If the answer is yes, all three questions,

00:52:41.920 then the person will most likely win the war.

00:52:44.080 But if you don't have that, you lose it.

00:52:44.800 And if you look at the Vietnam War,

00:52:46.520 even though America was killing a lot of people,

00:52:50.080 it killed 3 million Vietnamese during the course of the war.

00:52:52.620 Damn.

00:52:52.920 It was not destroying the enemy's will to fight.

00:52:56.360 In fact, it was making them angrier.

00:52:59.960 And therefore, more people were willing to fight the Americans.

00:53:03.640 Okay?

00:53:04.240 So, from a very...

00:53:05.780 Holy shit.

00:53:06.200 So, very early on, the American political leadership knew the war could not be won.

00:53:11.700 So, another question then is, why did America stay in the war?

00:53:14.860 And the answer is credibility.

00:53:17.500 Okay?

00:53:19.180 Credibility just means they didn't want to lose face.

00:53:21.180 They didn't want to be laughed at by the Chinese and by the Soviets and by the Europeans, okay?

00:53:26.340 Because they lose the world power status.

00:53:27.160 But there's actually another way to understand credibility.

00:53:29.820 And it's what we call the sunk cost fallacy, okay?

00:53:36.580 Have you guys heard of a sunk cost fallacy?

00:53:39.660 And the idea is never, ever go into a casino.

00:53:44.500 The reason why is that...

00:53:46.180 I told you when you go to the casino and you start losing money at some point you cannot

00:53:57.860 leave the casino why not house always exactly you want to you want to reclaim the money

00:54:08.180 you've lost okay you've invested so much that you cannot leave you have to get that

00:54:12.340 money back and that's a problem with war eventually you've invested so much you

00:54:16.960 cannot leave the war and that's what happened in Vietnam America invested so

00:54:20.300 much it can't it didn't want to leave the war because it did not want to admit

00:54:24.620 that all this has been lost okay it's what we call the sunk cost fallacy

00:54:29.960 that's why even though America could not win the war it's still want to fight the

00:54:36.100 war okay does that make sense okay so the vietnam war is another example okay that is similar to to

00:54:44.300 this where america invests enough soldiers sunk i can't hear what he's saying it's hard to hear

00:54:51.640 his words sometimes that it refuses to lead the war and amid defeat okay does it make sense guys

00:54:56.540 all right now let's look at one more example all right you're gonna tell me that he doesn't have

00:55:01.620 a little bit of an accent the most recent example and it's the russian ukraine war now as you know

00:55:08.040 in february 2022 putin ordered a special military operation against ukraine okay we'll see that but

00:55:16.860 look at that they just had a military they had a police escort they blocked off the fucking highway

00:55:21.820 for netanyahu and yahoo just now washington dc

00:55:43.580 which one is he this one

00:55:45.820 Look how much traffic everybody's facing just so that this war criminal can go drive through.

00:56:00.260 Big daddy's in town.

00:56:01.260 Daddy's home.

00:56:02.260 This is Ukraine.

00:56:03.260 Daddy's home.

00:56:04.260 And Russia attacked from three axes, the north to take Kiev, the capital.

00:56:09.880 You have the east to take Donetsk and then you have the south from Crimea to take the

00:56:17.440 south.

00:56:18.440 And as we know, the north failed.

00:56:21.760 The north attack failed and the Russians had to turn back.

00:56:25.100 But the east and the south were successful.

00:56:28.920 Now let's think about this.

00:56:30.820 You have an extremely powerful military attacking your country, the Ukraine.

00:56:35.620 If you were the Ukrainian president, if you were the Ukrainian military, there's really

00:56:40.160 only one way you can fight this war and win.

00:56:43.720 And what is it?

00:56:45.140 Using traditional military doctrine.

00:56:47.620 How much you fight this war?

00:56:49.000 You guys know?

00:56:51.500 Head to head.

00:56:52.500 Let's go back to mass forces, avoid encirclement, protect supply lines.

00:56:55.960 How much you fight this war?

00:56:56.960 There's only one way you can fight this war.

00:56:59.120 Try to starve them out.

00:57:01.120 Train them with supplies.

00:57:03.540 Starve them out.

00:57:04.660 How do you disrupt supply lines?

00:57:07.600 There's only one way you can fight this war and win, and what is it?

00:57:11.160 Starve them.

00:57:12.900 The enemy's attacking you, right?

00:57:14.480 So what must you do?

00:57:17.200 Defend until they run out of supplies.

00:57:19.220 The answer is you must retreat.

00:57:22.880 Why?

00:57:25.540 They run out of supplies.

00:57:26.040 The enemy's attacking, right?

00:57:27.400 So you pull back your forces.

00:57:29.520 Why would you do that?

00:57:31.320 What's the logic of that?

00:57:33.100 Exactly. It's that simple.

00:57:35.900 You want to overextend your enemy.

00:57:38.400 Ukraine is a huge country.

00:57:40.540 And Russia didn't send out that many soldiers.

00:57:43.060 Maybe 160,000.

00:57:44.360 That's not that many soldiers.

00:57:45.860 So if you just give them space, they're going to outrun the supply lines.

00:57:50.140 And then when they outrun the supply lines, you can encircle them and you can disrupt their supply.

00:57:54.980 And that's the only way you can win the war.

00:57:58.380 What did the Ukrainians do instead?

00:57:59.620 that's the only way to win this war but what did the ukrainians do instead which made them lose

00:58:06.480 the war what they kept attacking kept deploying troops yeah so the ukrainians refused to give up

00:58:12.380 give up space okay they didn't want to give up they refused to give up land they want to fight

00:58:16.320 the russians for every inch of territory and eventually because the russians had more forces

00:58:23.640 mass forces they were able to push push through okay yeah that's the first mistake that ukraine

00:58:29.960 made but then last summer ukraine launched something called a counter-offensive right

00:58:36.280 so once russia was able to take space it because and because russia is a land army it started to

00:58:43.480 develop um fortifications defenses okay mainly artillery that three lines of defenses and in the

00:58:50.600 the summer offensive the ukrainian military for whatever reason sent tens of thousands hundreds

00:58:56.920 of thousands of soldiers against this artillery and the russians blew everyone up okay it's not

00:59:03.480 funny sensation now here's a question why are the ukrainians doing this they've lost the war now

00:59:11.720 right they have no more soldiers right now the average age of the ukrainian army is about it's

00:59:16.360 over 40 years old they have guys in their 60s and 70s fighting in the military they don't have

00:59:21.560 enough manpower why would the ukrainians do do this first of all why would they fight for every

00:59:28.360 inch of territory and why would they launch a counteroffensive against a superior enemy

00:59:32.280 the sunk cost fallacy sunk cost fallacy what's the problem sunk cost fallacy okay the first is

00:59:39.800 is the president, Zelensky, the guy's a TV actor.

00:59:47.040 Okay?

00:59:47.880 Which means that he doesn't think strategy,

00:59:50.120 he just thinks what looks good on TV.

00:59:53.380 So for the first two years of the war-

00:59:55.120 Chad, you know who else is a TV actor?

00:59:57.460 Donald Trump.

00:59:59.120 You know who else only knows how to win on TV,

01:00:03.300 went through marketing?

01:00:04.840 You know who else had a reality TV show

01:00:07.360 And who understands it like Zelensky is Donald Trump.

01:00:12.760 No, not Osman, you fucking idiot.

01:00:14.240 Watching this on TV, right?

01:00:15.460 It looked as though the Ukrainians were going to win this war.

01:00:18.520 Spelmenko?

01:00:19.120 Right?

01:00:20.220 I remember like two years ago, people were saying that the Ukrainians are going to march to Moscow and overthrow Putin.

01:00:27.180 People were saying that.

01:00:28.720 And the reason why is that Zelensky is a master of public image manipulation.

01:00:36.060 He was destroying reality.

01:00:37.360 for people through television the problem with that though is it's not reality guys okay yeah

01:00:44.420 reality the reality on the ground is very different from tv okay so who else is like

01:00:51.020 zielinski trump in this world it's trump trump is exactly like uh zielinski okay do you understand

01:00:58.460 trump is also concerned about what looks good on tv he's like i must look strong

01:01:04.580 we must look as though we're winning this war he doesn't really care about strategy okay okay so

01:01:11.800 i got it because of this it's very likely that he orders a land invasion of iran because it would

01:01:19.200 look good on tv okay so the problem with linsky is he cared about what looked good sorry nigga

01:01:26.120 netanyahu is gonna release the tapes if i don't send you to die for satan okay looks good thanks

01:01:32.540 20 what but you also have other problems like you have extremists in the

01:01:40.420 Ukrainian military okay and guys these extremists they're Nazis they're neo

01:01:45.260 Nazis and so the traditional understanding of neo of Nazis are

01:01:51.500 people who kill Jews okay but the Russians don't understand Nazis that way

01:01:55.480 because remember Germany and and the Soviet Union fought this war so the

01:02:02.200 The Russians understood Nazis to be enemies of Russia who want to kill Russians.

01:02:08.620 And there were many neo-Nazis in Ukraine.

01:02:11.880 They hate Russia.

01:02:12.880 They want to kill as many Russians as possible.

01:02:15.940 And they're the ones who are pushing for as much war as possible.

01:02:19.260 So you have these extremists in the Ukrainian military.

01:02:25.020 The last reason is NATO.

01:02:29.380 So it's an open secret that NATO is helping the Ukrainian military against Russia.

01:02:36.460 You have NATO military advisors devising strategy against Russia.

01:02:42.920 So it's most likely that the summer offensive last summer was a NATO plan and not a Ukrainian

01:02:48.980 plan.

01:02:49.980 It's possible.

01:02:50.980 We also know that NATO special forces are in the country directing missile strikes against

01:02:54.860 Russian forces.

01:02:57.860 Which means what?

01:02:58.860 Where do NATO special forces come from?

01:03:00.260 If this is true, and if Ukraine loses the war, meaning that it doesn't have enough soldiers to continue to fight this war, what will NATO do?

01:03:14.400 Yeah, yeah.

01:03:15.440 I mean, according to what happened to Vietnam War and the Athenian expedition against Sicily, it is most likely that the most likely outcome will be that NATO sends its own troops against Russia.

01:03:26.980 Okay, so Macron of France have said that we want to send French soldiers

01:03:32.920 And the British Prime Minister has said that he is considering conscription for British people

01:03:40.100 Okay

01:03:41.080 Which means that young British citizens will be drafted into the army to fight Russia

01:03:47.840 Wow

01:03:48.680 Alright

01:03:50.680 so these are three historical examples that are very similar to what could

01:03:57.400 happen in Iran it doesn't make sense guys why do they hate Russia so right any

01:04:03.640 questions before I continue is it because Russia is independent from

01:04:06.760 Israel all right is this clear so far all right now let's use another mode of

01:04:16.240 analysis called game theory analysis okay and this is what I've been teaching

01:04:19.000 this semester.

01:04:21.000 It's such a fear.

01:04:22.000 It's a game fear.

01:04:23.000 The idea is that society, what happens in the real world, is a game among human beings.

01:04:29.000 Okay?

01:04:30.000 And each person is trying to play this game as to optimize the outcome for that person.

01:04:38.000 Okay?

01:04:39.000 So the question then is, why would the United States...

01:04:42.000 Oh, because they have no central bank in Russia?

01:04:44.000 Is that true?

01:04:45.000 States send 100,000 troops into Iran so let's look at the individual motivations

01:04:51.900 of the individual players okay so you have the United States what does the

01:04:56.880 United States want to do what does it want to do take over the world fuck

01:05:03.480 Israel by doing what get fuck by Israel and accomplishing what it wants to topple

01:05:11.220 the regime in Tehran, right?

01:05:12.980 And you can only do that for an agron invasion, okay?

01:05:15.920 So the United States is trying to…

01:05:16.920 He reminds me of my grandfather.

01:05:18.480 My Filipino grandfather looks and talks just like him.

01:05:21.100 Bopal Iran.

01:05:23.100 But then you also have other actors, okay?

01:05:27.020 So Iran.

01:05:30.520 What does Iran want to do?

01:05:32.520 Like, does he remind you of an Asian guy that walks with his hand?

01:05:36.720 Any Asians in here?

01:05:37.720 You know, like the Asian old man that they walk around like, sorry to get distracted,

01:05:42.680 they walk around like this.

01:05:45.940 This is how, like, smart Asian old.

01:05:51.340 Going on a walk.

01:05:55.480 This.

01:05:57.040 Through the garden, you know.

01:06:01.020 Why are you no doctor yet?

01:06:02.460 What does Iran want to do?

01:06:05.240 Well, basically the revolutionary guard corps.

01:06:07.380 What do they want to do?

01:06:11.340 They want to kill as many Americans as possible.

01:06:12.920 You understand?

01:06:13.620 They want to force an American land invasion.

01:06:16.680 So Iran wants to force a U.S. invasion,

01:06:20.800 knowing that if the U.S. invades, it has to lose the war.

01:06:24.880 It will lose the war.

01:06:27.280 So maybe the Ayatollah is allowing some of the protests to happen

01:06:31.000 because they know that that's going to usher in the land invasion.

01:06:33.280 The Guard can just send suicide bombers against the United States.

01:06:35.520 okay now let's look at Israel if we know that the United States wants to

01:06:40.440 topple Iran we know that Iran wants to force a US invasion to defeat the

01:06:45.000 Americans to humiliate the Americans and exact revenge for what happened in the

01:06:52.700 past okay what does Israel want to do what is is Israel's optimal outcome you

01:06:58.240 guys know? If you're Israel, what do you want to happen? Say it. You want to defeat it, okay?

01:07:15.260 And then what do you want to happen? You want to defeat it, you want the proxies defeated,

01:07:19.100 and then what do you want to happen? Take over the world, greater Israel.

01:07:23.520 Take over the world, greater Israel. Do you want the United States to stay in the Middle East?

01:07:28.240 Yes.

01:07:30.340 Well, temporarily, long-term, no.

01:07:33.820 Temporarily yes, long-term, no.

01:07:35.340 What happens if the United States and Iran both lose the war?

01:07:39.400 Iran is destroyed as a country.

01:07:41.220 The United States is destroyed as a military presence in the Middle East.

01:07:44.280 Israel wins.

01:07:45.020 Israel takes over the Middle East.

01:07:47.040 Global superpower.

01:07:47.580 Israel becomes the top dog in the Middle East.

01:07:49.560 Do you understand?

01:07:50.760 Sensational.

01:07:51.880 Israel can now control the entire Middle East.

01:07:54.540 So the optimal outcome for Israel is Iran and the United States are both destroyed.

01:08:00.940 Wow.

01:08:01.960 Do you understand?

01:08:02.900 How about Saudi Arabia?

01:08:04.540 What is their optimal outcome?

01:08:06.200 Saudi Arabia also gets toppled.

01:08:10.240 Exactly the same as Israel.

01:08:11.180 Exactly.

01:08:11.580 Do you understand?

01:08:12.860 Oh, Saudi Arabia wants that.

01:08:13.840 Which will leave the Middle East to Saudi Arabia and Israel.

01:08:16.600 But Israel is a far superior military than Saudi Arabia.

01:08:20.240 Remember, it's very easy to blow up Saudi Arabia.

01:08:22.600 They have oil fields.

01:08:23.180 okay not that hard not that easy so issue becomes a top dog you understand game theory

01:08:28.660 in other words all the major participants want an invasion of iraq okay but they want different

01:08:38.860 outcomes and so right now israel is tricking and making it seem like the u.s and israel are going

01:08:45.600 to work together and be best friends forever and trump and then yahoo are going to keep their dicks

01:08:49.480 into each other's assets forever, but in reality, Israel does not give a fuck, and they just

01:08:53.920 want to use us. They want to use us as a very easy pawn to just take over the world.

01:09:00.240 Israel most benefit if this situation happens, where you have 100,000 U.S. troops in the

01:09:06.380 country, and they can't get out, okay? Because it becomes some cost policy. The United States

01:09:10.620 can only point more soldiers. Does that make sense? All right.

01:09:15.720 great breakdown so so is this clear to you guys okay you can either use historical analysis

01:09:22.720 to get to this outcome but you can also use game theory to get to this outcome

01:09:26.320 any questions so far

01:09:29.640 okay great okay so celine asked the most pivotal question okay what is it celine the united states

01:09:41.560 has nuclear weapons, which is its ultimate Trump card, right?

01:09:46.480 So what Trump can say to Tehran is, like, I have 100,000 troops in country.

01:09:53.060 You have to let them go, or I will nuke you, okay?

01:09:56.320 You understand?

01:09:56.960 Trump can say that.

01:09:57.960 Listen, I'm Trump.

01:09:59.000 I'm Donald Trump.

01:10:00.520 I need to look strong.

01:10:02.040 I have 100,000 troops in the country.

01:10:04.240 I can't get them out of the country.

01:10:05.260 So he says to Tehran, you either let them go, okay?

01:10:07.940 You either guarantee them safe passage out of the country, or I will nuke you.

01:10:11.560 So that's what will happen.

01:10:16.120 That is what Donald Trump will do.

01:10:18.240 Once the situation arises, the only way for Donald Trump to save face is to threaten

01:10:23.840 Tehran and says, you'll let my guys go or I will nuke the entire country.

01:10:31.360 So how does Tehran get out of this situation?

01:10:36.220 How do the Iranians protect themselves against this possibility?

01:10:39.380 Because you're absolutely right.

01:10:40.760 This is exactly what will happen if this situation will arise.

01:10:43.660 Trump will respond with nuclear weapons, with a threat of nuclear weapons.

01:10:46.800 So what must the Iranians do to protect themselves against this possibility?

01:10:51.640 Who can help the Iranians now?

01:10:53.880 Russia.

01:10:54.880 Okay, do you understand?

01:10:56.200 So before this war happens, Iran and Russia must come to an agreement where Putin says

01:11:01.920 to me out from the onset, no one is allowed to use nuclear weapons, okay?

01:11:07.640 If Iran uses nuclear weapons, I will nuke Iran.

01:11:11.020 If the United States uses nuclear weapons, I will nuke the United States.

01:11:14.140 If you use nukes, I will nuke you use nukes.

01:11:16.840 If Israel uses nuclear weapons, I will nuke Israel.

01:11:19.360 If Putin says that, how will the world react?

01:11:24.720 If Putin says this, you are not allowed to use nuclear weapons, how will the world react?

01:11:29.380 But with nukes.

01:11:30.440 He's a hero, right?

01:11:31.600 He saved humanity.

01:11:33.100 But because he says this, the United States is now trapped.

01:11:37.640 Okay, you understand?

01:11:40.560 And so this becomes a black hole for the United States

01:11:44.220 where they can only send in more troops.

01:11:46.980 They can't get any troops out,

01:11:48.180 they can only send in more troops.

01:11:50.640 What's the problem with this?

01:11:52.700 What's the problem with sending in more troops?

01:11:55.460 They just keep dying.

01:11:56.420 Ukraine problem.

01:11:57.380 No, there's actually a huge problem

01:11:58.620 with this idea of sending in more troops.

01:12:00.160 What is it?

01:12:01.000 Someone explain the Russia,

01:12:02.840 someone explain the Russian involvement a little better

01:12:04.540 so I can write a note for that.

01:12:06.140 So Russia says, if you use nukes, we'll use nukes.

01:12:11.780 If you use nukes on Iran, if you US nukes Iran,

01:12:21.320 Russia will use nukes.

01:12:25.380 Right?

01:12:26.080 OK.

01:12:30.240 OK, no one wants to go fight, you understand?

01:12:33.620 The military cannot recruit soldiers, all right?

01:12:38.880 But even if you did have enough troops, as Jack says,

01:12:43.200 you can't resupply them.

01:12:44.320 Why?

01:12:46.860 Why can't you actually resupply your army?

01:12:48.900 Why not?

01:12:54.960 But there's a bigger problem than the supply lines.

01:12:56.700 What is it?

01:12:57.840 What do you need to create both?

01:12:59.040 Because Russia is separated from Iran alliance.

01:13:00.720 That could have been for optics.

01:13:01.960 could have been uh to just prevent that move just because it's public doesn't mean that they don't

01:13:06.280 still have an alliance it's an ammunition america has no manufacturing capacity because america

01:13:13.800 moved all its capacity to china okay remember this so for every one ship that america can build

01:13:21.240 china can build 232 ships that's what the pentagon says okay do you understand so if this were

01:13:29.160 If this war were to happen, there's actually no way America can win this war.

01:13:36.380 It's just completely trapped inside Iran.

01:13:39.600 And once it becomes trapped, some cost fallacy comes into play,

01:13:43.920 and America just puts in all its resources into the country, but it's a black hole.

01:13:48.900 It cannot use nuclear weapons because Putin, as I said from the onset,

01:13:53.240 you are not allowed to use nuclear weapons.

01:13:54.600 but another question then is

01:13:59.200 why would Putin do that

01:14:00.980 why would Putin involve himself

01:14:03.440 in this war

01:14:04.260 and that's what we'll discuss next class

01:14:07.140 how Putin sees this war

01:14:09.540 and how Putin will react

01:14:11.340 in this war

01:14:11.900 great lecture again from Professor Zhang

01:14:15.840 holy shit that was good

01:14:17.740 very very very good

01:14:19.940 so let's go review

01:14:21.620 these notes quickly

01:14:22.620 before we end are there any questions about

01:14:25.600 problem with iraq is that iraq is an independent country okay there are 10 000 we know about iraq

01:14:36.060 so okay let's briefly look over the notes before we go on to the next video uh we might watch more

01:14:40.040 lectures from from him today but let's go switch it up and not get too much you know okay i could

01:14:45.700 turn off the fucking brain rot for now okay quick review of the notes i'll go real quick

01:14:49.860 real quick i noticed i went back to the vaude it's been too long in them yesterday so

01:14:55.600 let's go start from the top we'll review all the notes like on another day but like it's so much

01:15:01.820 to go through let's just focus on today so this is a lesson about iran trap right aipac is the

01:15:06.360 second most powerful lobby in the usa the number one is the pensioners pensioners the most powerful

01:15:10.860 i don't i've never heard that before about the pensioners america's addicted to empire always

01:15:14.400 has been the main conflict in the middle east between saudi and iran iran supports hezbollah

01:15:18.760 and hamas these are rogue military groups iran represents a threat to saudi's existence again

01:15:23.240 saudi has an alliance with israel in the u.s trump is the champion of israel and saudi he is good

01:15:28.200 friends with jared kusher jared kusher is his son-in-law jared kushner is friends with muhammad

01:15:32.280 bin salman mbs and netanyahu mbs uh king of saudi arabia netanyahu prime minister of israel trump's

01:15:38.040 son-in-law is married to ivanka ivanka is converted to judaism so he has a daughter that's literally

01:15:42.120 a jew netanyahu stays in the master bedroom when he visits kushner and kushar stays in the basement

01:15:47.720 shows who's in charge. Daddy's home. Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, which would

01:15:52.080 have been peace. I think this was in his first term. Trump moved the U.S. embassy from Tel

01:15:56.480 Aviv to Jerusalem. This is highly controversial. People got really upset about that, right? They

01:16:00.120 moved the U.S. embassy from the Capitol to the holy site. Trump ignored the fact that Saudi

01:16:05.740 killed journalists. Didn't matter to him. In January 2020, Trump ordered the assassination

01:16:09.540 of Soleimani. Soleimani, let's get the definition correct. He was Iran's former what?

01:16:15.880 Qasem Soleimani was a high-ranking

01:16:19.080 military general

01:16:19.980 and commander of the Quds Force.

01:16:25.320 Soleimani, military commander.

01:16:31.020 Soleimani, Iran, military commander.

01:16:36.240 Soleimani? Soleimani?

01:16:37.700 Soleiminati? Shut up!

01:16:39.280 U.S. military is very different from 30 years ago, right?

01:16:41.080 Because 2003, U.S. changed military action

01:16:42.920 to shock and awe.

01:16:44.360 They no longer follow old principles.

01:16:45.880 They now have air supremacy, intelligence agencies, and hubris in American military.

01:16:49.920 They operate off of arrogance now.

01:16:52.880 Operation Prosperity Guardian was an operation against the Houthis.

01:16:58.720 The Houthis are a military operation in Yemen, a.k.a. these pirates.

01:17:01.240 The U.S.A. couldn't do anything against the Houthi pirates.

01:17:03.100 America lost the war against Houthis in the Red Sea.

01:17:05.800 They couldn't do nothing about it.

01:17:06.760 Iran wants war with the U.S. out of anger and alliance with Israel.

01:17:10.940 Iran is angry that the U.S. backed Iran police state.

01:17:13.660 Iran is angry that U.S. protects Saudi.

01:17:15.320 Iran is angry that Trump killed General Soleimani.

01:17:18.080 Rightfully, these are valid reasons.

01:17:19.820 Nikki Haley is a Trump admin, also pushing war.

01:17:22.560 What's his name?

01:17:23.280 Professor John thought that Nikki Haley would be VP.

01:17:25.040 She wasn't.

01:17:25.460 It would end up being J.D. Vance, but same shit.

01:17:27.680 She's still very influential in the Trump admin.

01:17:29.860 Nikki Haley.

01:17:30.400 Did I spell her name right?

01:17:31.140 Is it Nikki like Minaj or Nikki?

01:17:32.320 I think it's Nikki with two Ks, isn't it?

01:17:34.560 Oh, Nikki.

01:17:35.080 Yeah, my bad.

01:17:35.700 Governor of South Carolina.

01:17:37.000 Oof.

01:17:38.040 Look here.

01:17:38.440 Let's see.

01:17:40.740 There you are.

01:17:42.020 Nikki Haley.

01:17:42.460 iran iran wants to provoke u.s into evading iran

01:17:49.700 the hubris definition is excessive confidence having a god complex iranian people want

01:17:56.600 democracy and they're sick of this is the narrative the u.s running with the u.s narrative

01:18:00.960 is that the iranian people want democracy and they're sick of the ayatollah u.s must protect

01:18:06.120 the protesters with democracy and i'll write my note proven by former cia claiming iran protests

01:18:16.460 were run by cia massad bombing firebombing moss and all this stuff iran is working on developing

01:18:28.120 a nuclear bomb this is what they say they've been saying this for 10 years

01:18:31.720 narrative for 10 years hezbollah is disrupting trade in oil right and that is connected by the

01:18:42.200 strait of hormuz iran connects oil trade to china japan south korea and i also saw it was also most

01:18:50.000 of europe this is my note everything in parentheses is my note and this is not from jang

01:18:53.920 the american narrative is that we must go to war to protect global prosperity

01:18:58.800 aka oil that's my note american narrative is that we have an obligation to protect our

01:19:06.640 middle eastern allies like saudi even though we don't protect qatar we ignore doha qatar

01:19:13.700 that just happened israel bombed qatar we did nothing about it which is our ally

01:19:21.320 u.s supporting rogue military groups to destroy iranian regime

01:19:24.960 like uh yeah the rogue military groups within iran um and so looking back and defending uh the

01:19:33.300 idea of hubris is that the u.s defeated saddam hussein in 2003 in three weeks they brag about

01:19:37.460 this all the time and to prove that the u.s military is the greatest military in the world

01:19:40.840 u.s will defeat iran in two weeks this is a dick swinging contest between the u.s and china and

01:19:44.420 russia the trade of mousse is patrolled by the uss general r ford a 13 billion dollar supercarrier

01:19:51.080 ship it ensures that oil shipping is safe it ensures that the iranians don't disrupt this oil

01:19:55.720 oil money america also controls the sky they have complete air supremacy

01:20:01.080 they can but there's 300 000 troops ready in iran some of you in the chat are saying four

01:20:05.240 to five million trade of hormones wait how do you pronounce it correctly i'm sorry

01:20:12.200 how do you pronounce it i said it wrong

01:20:14.360 poor moose i said it right dumbass wait did i say straight instead of straight

01:20:22.920 where where where where where where's the straight uh it's all uh yeah i said it right uh to prove

01:20:32.680 you uh uh us 100 000 u.s troops are ready to strike iran uh surrounding iran though is all

01:20:37.940 mountains so john's thesis is that iran wins this war he thinks iran wins to deploy utas

01:20:44.140 troops you need to airdrop them go go go go they got to hop out of a helicopter and also there's

01:20:48.920 no resupply lines so this is once they're in there they're basically hostages right there's

01:20:53.240 90 million Iranians which means you need an equivalent to three to four million troops to

01:20:57.320 conquer these 90 million people it's easy for Iran to shoot down the airplanes because of the

01:21:01.660 Iranian mountains they have all these drones they could easily shoot down the planes he says

01:21:06.100 American troops would essentially be hostages in Iran America's hated by well I should write

01:21:12.220 on that it's a philosophy.

01:21:19.240 Zhang believes

01:21:20.360 Iran

01:21:21.280 defeats

01:21:22.720 the U.S.

01:21:25.160 Which Israel would be okay with,

01:21:26.520 to be honest.

01:21:28.220 So, why?

01:21:29.100 Why would Iran win?

01:21:30.080 So, these are the reasons why.

01:21:32.680 I should...

01:21:34.960 Reasons Zhang

01:21:37.380 argues Iran

01:21:38.900 defeats

01:21:39.600 the U.S.

01:21:41.440 Let's see why.

01:21:49.160 90 million Iranians need 3-4 million troops to conquer.

01:21:51.380 Easy to shoot on planes.

01:21:52.200 American troops would essentially be hostages.

01:21:53.520 America is hated by Iran because Americans supported the Shah.

01:21:56.860 The Shah killed a lot of people.

01:21:57.980 I'm not going to get into that right now.

01:21:59.080 Iran hates America because of what happened to Iraq.

01:22:01.440 3 million civilians.

01:22:02.860 Iraq, all these people in homes where they put guns to children's heads.

01:22:06.640 Iraq was a disaster.

01:22:08.180 Iran won't submit to a foreign conqueror.

01:22:09.940 Allahu Akbar that's what I'm talking about

01:22:12.300 Allahu Akbar! Iran believes

01:22:14.100 America is the great Satan and they are loyal to

01:22:15.960 Allah. The Greeks

01:22:17.900 believe the worst thing is hubris

01:22:19.580 this is a historical analysis

01:22:21.820 right? Hubris is the arrogance of God

01:22:23.580 thinking that you're God-like that you can control the world

01:22:26.040 Trump says Iran is one month from developing

01:22:28.040 a nuke without any proof he's been saying this for 10 years

01:22:29.800 USA will just simply nuke Iran

01:22:31.960 i.e. Pearl Harbor

01:22:33.840 as an example this is my note but Iran won't

01:22:35.900 Iran simply won't just nuke

01:22:37.340 here's the historical analysis in 14 in 415 BCE in Athens there was a brutal war between Athens

01:22:42.700 and Sparta to win against Sparta Athens wants to simply invade Sicily but it would cost 500,000

01:22:47.380 troops and 100 ships Athenians didn't think about the resupply they would need they never fought a

01:22:51.620 war of that magnitude they were arrogant because they won every other war the Athenian army was

01:22:55.400 wiped out in Sicily it caused the end of the Athenian army Athenians were I could even say

01:23:00.560 empire. I'll put that as mine because that was my addition, not Chiang's. Athenians were addicted

01:23:09.120 to empire and had hubris, arrogance, right? In Vietnam, here's another historical analysis,

01:23:14.120 500,000 soldiers in Vietnam destroying everything, say U.S. soldiers,

01:23:19.520 but they were also getting destroyed. They were destroying all of Vietnam and their soldiers

01:23:24.500 also getting died. 50,000 American troops died. In 1971, the Pentagon Papers were released,

01:23:28.820 revealing, most importantly, that

01:23:31.220 American leadership understood this war

01:23:33.380 was unwinnable early on. They knew

01:23:35.360 from the get-go, we are going to fucking lose.

01:23:37.640 I'm going to bold this. This is the most important takeaway from that.

01:23:44.180 The mission creep that war

01:23:45.400 was slowly escalating over time since the 1950s.

01:23:47.560 America had involvement in Vietnam since the 50s.

01:23:49.480 Americans stayed for credibility. They didn't want to

01:23:51.360 look like little bitches.

01:23:53.380 America dropped more bombs in Vietnam than in World War II.

01:23:55.680 Incredible stat right here.

01:23:56.680 i'm going to italicize that i love that stat three ways to win a war according to john

01:24:01.940 there you have to have clear strategy adaptation and a will to fight they had none of this in

01:24:07.380 vietnam three million vietnamese civilians killed in the war i'll note this as well

01:24:12.160 it was highly protested everybody well i mean they called it a hippie movement it was it was

01:24:20.740 an extremely unpopular war what did uh muhammad ali say ain't no vietcong ever call me nigga

01:24:25.640 and here's the sunk cost fallacy

01:24:28.120 a sunk cost fallacy is the same reason that you should never go to the casino

01:24:33.580 told you sensational the same reason the house always wins because once you start losing you

01:24:37.740 can't leave you got to win back your losses and even when you start to go up again you're just

01:24:40.800 going to keep on losing the ukraine's only method of success versus russia was is retreat they could

01:24:45.240 not win troop wise they were never going to win against russia their strategy should be to outrun

01:24:49.540 russia supply lines but zelensky fell to the sunk cost fallacy because he was an actor he only knew

01:24:55.520 about appearances uh actually i could i don't need to put that right season let's ski only

01:25:03.020 understood television appearances he didn't want to look weak

01:25:07.020 please fit yes trump is like zelinski and only cares about optics trump is a television actor

01:25:15.240 crazy trump ordered the land evasion of iran because it looks good on tv or trump will order

01:25:25.520 will order the land evasion of iran because it looks good on tv makes him look like a big guy

01:25:29.440 he has hubris nato was helping ukrainian military against russia nato special forces directing

01:25:34.240 military strikes against russia uk and france talked about conscription mandatory conscription

01:25:37.760 getting young soldiers to fight against russia all this still lost game theory

01:25:43.040 this was probably going to happen here's the chessboard the u.s wants to topple iran

01:25:47.360 iran wants to kill americans iran wants to force u.s land invasion the israel israel's optimal

01:25:52.400 outcome is that u.s and iran lose and israel controls the middle east they don't need law

01:25:57.680 they no longer need that alliance with americans they just get to control the middle east alone

01:26:02.060 without our without americans meddling little hands getting involved right in saudi arabia

01:26:08.180 ally of israel in the u.s it's very easy to topple because of all the oil fields like if

01:26:11.960 they get nuked there's just a lot more nukes it all sets up on fire so they don't really pose a

01:26:16.700 threat. Trump will respond with nukes if they can't extract 100,000 troops. So if Trump does

01:26:22.360 maintain his arrogance, if Trump follows hubris and puts a land invasion or invades Iran with

01:26:30.140 100,000 troops, they're essentially hostages. And when he can't extract the 100,000 troops,

01:26:33.740 he will just nuke it because Iran's not going to let the troops leave.

01:26:37.720 Russia says that if U.S. nukes Iran, Russia will use nukes. Putin says that you cannot use nuclear

01:26:43.800 weapons he does not want nukes involved so u.s is kind of facing a checkmate right here

01:26:47.700 because if the u.s nukes iran because they can't attract the troops russia's already told them if

01:26:53.640 you use nukes we're going to nuke and remember for every one ship that usa can build china can

01:26:59.180 build 232 ships this is from the pentagon so basically it's inevitable world war three happens

01:27:05.900 and you can see how the chess move plays out but this is a great video to understand how this is

01:27:08.900 going to happen. So again, a lot of this speculation stuff, but Giang has been all right

01:27:15.140 about a lot of this stuff. And I really enjoyed this breakdown.

SHNEAKO - February 12, 2026

This is the end of the world.

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