The Alberta Roundup with Isaac Lamoureux - February 14, 2024


Correcting the record about an Alberta Pension Plan

Topics
unfunded liabilities Alberta pension plan independence
Hosted by
Isaac Lamoureux
Guests
Nadine Wellwood
Mentioned
Livingston McLeod Danielle Smith Rachel Emanuel Justin Trudeau Rachel Notley Pierre Poilievre Jason Kenney Trevor Toome Ofsee Czar
Poilievre stands with Smith Smith mocks Guilbeault’s bid to ban roads

Episode Stats


Length

15 minutes

Words per minute

173.13

Word count

2,745

Sentence count

142

Harmful content

Misogyny

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this midweek episode, we are joined by Nadine Wellwood to talk about what an Alberta Pension Plan would look like. Nadine is no stranger to politics, having previously run for the People s Party of Canada and the United Conservative Party. She has also worked as a chartered investment manager and has been involved in finance for the past 20 years. In this episode, Nadine talks about her experience running for the PPC and how she got disqualified from running for leadership of the UCP. She also talks about why she's dedicated to holding a referendum to see if Alberta should leave the Canadian Pension Plan.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Hey everyone, welcome back to the Alberta Roundup. I'm your host, Rachel Emanuel.
00:00:14.020 Today for our midweek episode, we are joined by Nadine Wellwood. She's going to talk to us
00:00:19.200 a little bit about what an Alberta pension plan would look like. For those of you who are familiar
00:00:24.640 with the name, Nadine is no stranger to politics. Actually, fun fact for you guys, I talked to her 0.63
00:00:29.460 a couple of years ago when I was still working in the mainstream media at a little outlet called
00:00:33.940 iPolitics. At the time, she was running for the PPC. She also has a little bit of history with
00:00:39.380 the United Conservative Party. I know that she had sought to be a candidate for them in Livingston
00:00:44.420 McLeod and was disqualified. Nadine, maybe you just want to touch on that for a second just to let
00:00:49.240 people know what happened there and a little bit about who you are. Sure. Well, I'm a chartered
00:00:54.660 investment manager and have been working in finance for the last two decades before I got involved
00:00:59.080 in politics. And, of course, as you mentioned, I ran with the People's Party of Canada in 2019 and
00:01:05.880 2021 just because I liked Maxime's platform that was based very much on principles and the need,
00:01:13.320 I think, politically for change. And, of course, when Danielle Smith won the leadership race for
00:01:20.040 the UCP, I did run for Livingston McLeod. And I actually did win the nomination. I did have the
00:01:26.760 CA constituency association put my name forward to be their candidate on the ballot. And it was the
00:01:33.780 executive, I still think, strongly under a lot of influence from the previous Jason Kenney
00:01:39.940 administration that just made sure I was disqualified. Yeah, well, I'm sure a lot of my viewers remember
00:01:47.860 when that happened. So just that was a little more information about that. But today, we really want to
00:01:51.220 talk about, you know, the Alberta pension plan. I'm glad to see that despite, you know, some of your past
00:01:55.400 experience in politics, you're still organizing and doing important work. So I know that currently
00:01:59.800 you're working on something really big right now. You're going around the province. You have all
00:02:03.240 these different meetings where you're talking about what an Alberta pension plan would look like. Back
00:02:07.940 in October, the premier announced that at some point in the future, she is going to hold a referendum
00:02:12.780 to see if Alberta wants to pull out of the Canadian pension plan. She hasn't announced a date yet.
00:02:18.660 I know she has said that Alberta is owed a certain amount of money and she's waiting for the federal
00:02:23.040 government to get back to the province and say, this is what we think Alberta's assets in the
00:02:27.660 Canadian pension plan are. So why don't you just start by explaining to our viewers today,
00:02:31.660 what would an Alberta pension plan look like? How much money do you think the province is owed?
00:02:37.460 Sure. So I think one of the key things about what we're doing is we are planning on going
00:02:42.320 across the entire province from north to south, east to west. And I think it's important to hold the
00:02:49.340 referendum first and foremost. So whether you're for or against an Alberta pension plan, I think it's
00:02:53.680 very important for Albertans to get involved and partake in the process. But it's also more important
00:02:59.780 to make an informed decision. And for so many people, they actually lack, I think, the knowledge
00:03:04.720 necessary to actually assess whether this is a good thing or a bad thing for Alberta. And so one of the
00:03:11.760 primary functions and purpose for this is to actually provide them with facts, data, but not just the
00:03:18.960 facts and the data and then send you on your way. It's about making it relevant to you and to your
00:03:25.020 family and to the future of Albertans. So what does that look like? So from an education standpoint,
00:03:30.160 I think it's important to know not only the economics, the demographics, the issues around the CPP
00:03:37.960 and the numbers, because I actually honestly believe the numbers are somewhat irrelevant. So we've seen
00:03:43.920 numbers as high as 334 billion. That's according to the LifeWorks report. And then we've seen numbers
00:03:49.980 as low as 120 to 150 billion. If you look at Trevor Thome, for example, the UFC professor. So that's still
00:04:00.120 a significant amount of assets. And especially if you consider somebody like AIMCO, who only has 164
00:04:06.440 billion in assets to manage. To me, the number is actually somewhat irrelevant because there are so
00:04:14.040 many reasons to do this when you actually understand the economics, the demographics and the immigration.
00:04:19.800 Those are the key drivers of the pension plan and the biggest risks to the Canada pension plan in
00:04:26.040 particular. And in those three areas that even the chief actuary for the CPP acknowledges as being
00:04:33.080 their biggest risks, Alberta actually outperforms the rest of Canada on all of those.
00:04:41.720 So for those people, you know, I'm especially hearing a lot of concern from people who are
00:04:45.400 close to retirement age. And I think that's really especially where the mainstream media is fear
00:04:49.560 mongering saying this would be a very bad thing. You know, the government's going to steal your pension.
00:04:54.040 What would your response be to that? I think it's a little impossible for the government to steal
00:04:59.240 your pension. So the only way that this could happen, A, we need a referendum. People need to
00:05:06.040 speak as to whether or not this is something they want to do or they don't want to do. My hope is that
00:05:10.840 we do it based upon reliable information and informed consent and informed decision. And with respect to
00:05:18.760 stealing it, I mean, it's very clear that in order for Alberta to leave the Canada pension plan,
00:05:26.040 it has to have at a minimum, an infrastructure and a plan that provides at least the same or better
00:05:35.560 benefits to Albertans. So this is not something that, you know, I laugh because Rachel Notley and
00:05:41.800 the NDP have been really fear mongering, in my opinion, that, you know, we're putting the pensions of
00:05:48.280 Albertans at risk. We are actually, in my opinion, at far greater risk staying with the Canada pension
00:05:57.160 plan than we are starting our own. Why is that? The reason for that comes back to, I'll give you an
00:06:04.600 example. So there's a false sense of security, I think, around the Canada pension plan. I think there's
00:06:11.640 also a lack of confidence and trust in the government, which is a bad combination for the UCP
00:06:18.600 at this particular time because, you know, people believe that the CPP is this untouchable best in
00:06:25.160 the world, which is not true. It has its faults. For example, unfunded liabilities to the tune of $1.14
00:06:33.160 trillion. Now that number is not getting smaller. It's getting larger by the year. Back in 2019,
00:06:40.760 that was $884 billion. As of 2021, that was $1.14 trillion and it will grow again. In 2026,
00:06:51.400 for example, expenditures for the first time in the history of the Canada pension plan and Canada,
00:06:59.080 the expenditures will actually exceed the contributions. So you can only then imagine how
00:07:08.200 large those unfunded liabilities are actually going to become. Economically, there's some assumptions
00:07:14.360 that are being made to prop up the Canada pension plan and economically Canada is not in a strong
00:07:21.640 place. So Alberta, however, is very much in a much stronger position economically. Demographics,
00:07:29.720 again, Canada, you look at birth rates and mortality rates, right? The death rate as well as how many live
00:07:35.480 births we have. And the birth rate is declining and our mortality rate is increasing. Again, that doesn't
00:07:42.360 bode well for Canada as a whole, but Alberta is one of the few provinces that's bucking that trend. We
00:07:49.000 have the youngest, we have more people moving into the province than leaving, and we also have higher
00:07:54.920 incomes. So from a contribution perspective, Alberta is actually propping up the rest of Canada right now.
00:08:02.600 Yeah. I mean, that makes sense to me, even just what you said about us having a lot of young
00:08:06.840 people moving here. I've covered this extensively on my show. My viewers know there's more people
00:08:11.000 moving to Alberta than any other province in Canada. And I think a lot of it is young families
00:08:15.240 who have been priced out of places like BC and Ontario, you know, speaking a little bit from
00:08:20.040 experience there. And, you know, I know a ton of conservatives who have massive, massive families,
00:08:24.840 lots of kids. So all the things that you're saying are very easy to believe. So then if Alberta was to
00:08:31.000 actually leave the Canada Pension Plan, what would that mean for us as a province? What would the
00:08:35.880 benefits of that be? Well, I mean, it's really for us to define. So what if we want to see better
00:08:43.000 benefits, if we want to see lower contribution rates, you know, the numbers make sense. And from
00:08:49.720 an economy perspective, I think it puts us in a fantastic position as far as better leverage also
00:08:55.960 with the federal government and with Ottawa. So one of the biggest concerns I have with the
00:09:00.680 Canada Pension Plan is the political interference. People believe that it is independent and it is
00:09:06.920 on a day-to-day basis. Nobody tells it what to buy or when to trade or when to sell investments,
00:09:13.880 but it is still subject to a lot of political influence from legislature and other government
00:09:19.880 agencies. Ofsee, for example, the Office of Superintendent for Financial Institutions.
00:09:26.600 And right now, most of those policies are very anti-Alberta because they are very anti-oil and gas.
00:09:34.200 And I have an example, and this is we're trying to make things relevant to people. For example,
00:09:39.320 Quebec has its own pension plan. Could you imagine if Quebec came out and said,
00:09:43.960 hey, we're going to stop all hydroelectric production and we're not going to support,
00:09:51.400 we're not going to invest, we're not going to provide any kind of financial security and
00:09:57.480 we're eliminating hydroelectricity. Do you think the Quebec population is going to support that?
00:10:03.480 So for me as an Albertan, I think one of the biggest things is taking back control of the things
00:10:08.840 that we can, especially around our natural resources. And I think this is such a huge
00:10:13.720 opportunity for Albertans in establishing their own Alberta pension plan to do exactly that. I
00:10:20.360 personally do not recommend that Albertans partake in their own demise. And the Canada pension plan
00:10:27.160 is not very Alberta friendly from a policy standpoint. So, you know, when Premier Smith first
00:10:35.640 announced this, there was a lot of pushback. I think some of the polling, the early polling that
00:10:39.800 we saw come out on this wasn't super in favor of pulling out of the Canada pension plan. You're
00:10:44.520 going around to the province, you're having these meetings, trying to really convince people or just
00:10:48.040 lay out the facts and I guess even let them make up their own minds as to this is something that would
00:10:52.040 be a good thing. How successful do you think these meetings are going so far and how, when people show
00:10:58.360 up to them, what are kind of some of the concerns that they initially have?
00:11:01.000 I think the biggest concerns are about mobility, whether or not they can move across provinces or
00:11:08.040 international and still collect their pension. And of course they can, all those agreements
00:11:12.600 are already in place. Those are simple things. The other one, like I pointed out earlier, seems to be
00:11:19.160 a lack of trust or lack of confidence in the government to be able to do this. But again, setting up a
00:11:25.000 pension fund, I know there's a lot of moving parts, but there's a lot of private investment funds out
00:11:30.840 there that are large. And once you get past, you know, the billion, five billion, 10 billion mark,
00:11:38.040 you have access to the same quality of investments. They find you, you don't have to go find them.
00:11:44.520 And people in the industry like myself and, you know, my colleagues, this is not a hurdle that can't be
00:11:51.800 overcome. It's just going to take us a little bit of time. And then of course there is going to be a bit of
00:11:56.360 a transition. So I think the fears that people have really just boils down to a lack of information and
00:12:03.320 or the misinformation, um, and some of the fear around making the change that people, some people
00:12:12.120 more than others have been emphasizing and playing upon. So again, really important to get relevant
00:12:18.360 facts. And most people honestly don't even know what questions to actually ask because they don't
00:12:24.760 understand what the key parts, the moving parts of this actually are and where to focus their
00:12:31.080 attention. And that's where somebody like myself having worked in the industry and having, you know,
00:12:36.120 colleagues that are still managing multi-billion dollar funds to rely on as far as numbers and
00:12:41.720 models and getting the actual data, um, and then presenting it in such a way that it makes sense to
00:12:48.200 you. We're not trying to, you know, convince you one way or the other, although it's very obvious
00:12:53.080 which way, uh, I'm leaning, but at the end of the day, you know, we need to have a referendum. We need
00:12:59.560 people to get actively involved, seek out the right information, get informed, and then cast a ballot,
00:13:06.600 a vote one way or the other so that we can, you know, resolve the issue and, uh, then move on to the
00:13:12.520 next, uh, big issue that, you know, we have here in Alberta. When would you like the referendum to happen?
00:13:17.560 Ideally, I think the referendum needs to happen before the federal election. And my reason for
00:13:23.080 that is a little bit political because I think so many people are so reliant on politicians to fix our
00:13:29.960 problems and politicians, as I think most of your viewers will agree are a part of the problem.
00:13:36.200 They're not the solution. And so I think, you know, people will become more laissez-faire. I think if we see
00:13:42.040 a, uh, Pierre Polyev and a conservative government come back into power in the federal, um, jurisdiction,
00:13:49.320 and the problem with that is this problem wasn't just created as a result of Justin Trudeau.
00:13:54.760 I think it's really, he's exposed the majority of the problems, but I think Alberta as a whole needs
00:14:02.200 to take back control of those areas of jurisdiction that belong to it. It's much easier for individuals,
00:14:10.040 for Albertans to influence an Alberta government than it is for us to influence a federal government.
00:14:16.440 I'm sure that some of my viewers will be very interested in what you have to say.
00:14:20.280 And for those who are hoping to maybe come out to one of your meetings and pepper you with some
00:14:23.960 questions, where can they find more information? So we are establishing a website called the Alberta
00:14:30.440 First Pension, and you can go to that website for more information. Currently, we are working with a
00:14:36.440 number of groups, including, um, Alberta Prosperity Project, which has listed the events as well,
00:14:43.240 as I think TBA Taking Back Alberta has listed some events as well for us, and there'll be more.
00:14:49.080 But, um, our next event is actually in Caroline on Saturday at 6pm. It's going to be at the Ag
00:14:55.320 Center. Then there's another event in Calgary at the Riviera on Wednesday evening at 7pm. We're going to
00:15:02.920 be in Beaumont, I think is already scheduled. Czar is already scheduled. Um, Westlock has already been
00:15:09.240 scheduled. And of course, we'll be filling that schedule out and literally doing a hundred stops
00:15:15.480 across the province. So definitely check the Alberta Pension, AlbertaFirstPension.ca.
00:15:22.200 And of course, if you're members of some of the other, uh, groups in here in Alberta,
00:15:26.760 check with them as well. We are trying to reach out to as many
00:15:29.800 and provide a united front to make sure that people get the information that they need.
00:15:35.000 Nadine, thank you so much for your time today. And to the rest of my viewers,
00:15:38.120 I will see you guys all on Saturday. I hope you have a great rest of your week.
00:15:41.800 Wonderful. Thank you so much.