The Alberta Roundup with Isaac Lamoureux - Correcting the record about an Alberta Pension Plan

00:00:00.000 Hey everyone, welcome back to the Alberta Roundup. I'm your host, Rachel Emanuel.

00:00:14.020 Today for our midweek episode, we are joined by Nadine Wellwood. She's going to talk to us

00:00:19.200 a little bit about what an Alberta pension plan would look like. For those of you who are familiar

00:00:24.640 with the name, Nadine is no stranger to politics. Actually, fun fact for you guys, I talked to her 0.63

00:00:29.460 a couple of years ago when I was still working in the mainstream media at a little outlet called

00:00:33.940 iPolitics. At the time, she was running for the PPC. She also has a little bit of history with

00:00:39.380 the United Conservative Party. I know that she had sought to be a candidate for them in Livingston

00:00:44.420 McLeod and was disqualified. Nadine, maybe you just want to touch on that for a second just to let

00:00:49.240 people know what happened there and a little bit about who you are. Sure. Well, I'm a chartered

00:00:54.660 investment manager and have been working in finance for the last two decades before I got involved

00:00:59.080 in politics. And, of course, as you mentioned, I ran with the People's Party of Canada in 2019 and

00:01:05.880 2021 just because I liked Maxime's platform that was based very much on principles and the need,

00:01:13.320 I think, politically for change. And, of course, when Danielle Smith won the leadership race for

00:01:20.040 the UCP, I did run for Livingston McLeod. And I actually did win the nomination. I did have the

00:01:26.760 CA constituency association put my name forward to be their candidate on the ballot. And it was the

00:01:33.780 executive, I still think, strongly under a lot of influence from the previous Jason Kenney

00:01:39.940 administration that just made sure I was disqualified. Yeah, well, I'm sure a lot of my viewers remember

00:01:47.860 when that happened. So just that was a little more information about that. But today, we really want to

00:01:51.220 talk about, you know, the Alberta pension plan. I'm glad to see that despite, you know, some of your past

00:01:55.400 experience in politics, you're still organizing and doing important work. So I know that currently

00:01:59.800 you're working on something really big right now. You're going around the province. You have all

00:02:03.240 these different meetings where you're talking about what an Alberta pension plan would look like. Back

00:02:07.940 in October, the premier announced that at some point in the future, she is going to hold a referendum

00:02:12.780 to see if Alberta wants to pull out of the Canadian pension plan. She hasn't announced a date yet.

00:02:18.660 I know she has said that Alberta is owed a certain amount of money and she's waiting for the federal

00:02:23.040 government to get back to the province and say, this is what we think Alberta's assets in the

00:02:27.660 Canadian pension plan are. So why don't you just start by explaining to our viewers today,

00:02:31.660 what would an Alberta pension plan look like? How much money do you think the province is owed?

00:02:37.460 Sure. So I think one of the key things about what we're doing is we are planning on going

00:02:42.320 across the entire province from north to south, east to west. And I think it's important to hold the

00:02:49.340 referendum first and foremost. So whether you're for or against an Alberta pension plan, I think it's

00:02:53.680 very important for Albertans to get involved and partake in the process. But it's also more important

00:02:59.780 to make an informed decision. And for so many people, they actually lack, I think, the knowledge

00:03:04.720 necessary to actually assess whether this is a good thing or a bad thing for Alberta. And so one of the

00:03:11.760 primary functions and purpose for this is to actually provide them with facts, data, but not just the

00:03:18.960 facts and the data and then send you on your way. It's about making it relevant to you and to your

00:03:25.020 family and to the future of Albertans. So what does that look like? So from an education standpoint,

00:03:30.160 I think it's important to know not only the economics, the demographics, the issues around the CPP

00:03:37.960 and the numbers, because I actually honestly believe the numbers are somewhat irrelevant. So we've seen

00:03:43.920 numbers as high as 334 billion. That's according to the LifeWorks report. And then we've seen numbers

00:03:49.980 as low as 120 to 150 billion. If you look at Trevor Thome, for example, the UFC professor. So that's still

00:04:00.120 a significant amount of assets. And especially if you consider somebody like AIMCO, who only has 164

00:04:06.440 billion in assets to manage. To me, the number is actually somewhat irrelevant because there are so

00:04:14.040 many reasons to do this when you actually understand the economics, the demographics and the immigration.

00:04:19.800 Those are the key drivers of the pension plan and the biggest risks to the Canada pension plan in

00:04:26.040 particular. And in those three areas that even the chief actuary for the CPP acknowledges as being

00:04:33.080 their biggest risks, Alberta actually outperforms the rest of Canada on all of those.

00:04:41.720 So for those people, you know, I'm especially hearing a lot of concern from people who are

00:04:45.400 close to retirement age. And I think that's really especially where the mainstream media is fear

00:04:49.560 mongering saying this would be a very bad thing. You know, the government's going to steal your pension.

00:04:54.040 What would your response be to that? I think it's a little impossible for the government to steal

00:04:59.240 your pension. So the only way that this could happen, A, we need a referendum. People need to

00:05:06.040 speak as to whether or not this is something they want to do or they don't want to do. My hope is that

00:05:10.840 we do it based upon reliable information and informed consent and informed decision. And with respect to

00:05:18.760 stealing it, I mean, it's very clear that in order for Alberta to leave the Canada pension plan,

00:05:26.040 it has to have at a minimum, an infrastructure and a plan that provides at least the same or better

00:05:35.560 benefits to Albertans. So this is not something that, you know, I laugh because Rachel Notley and

00:05:41.800 the NDP have been really fear mongering, in my opinion, that, you know, we're putting the pensions of

00:05:48.280 Albertans at risk. We are actually, in my opinion, at far greater risk staying with the Canada pension

00:05:57.160 plan than we are starting our own. Why is that? The reason for that comes back to, I'll give you an

00:06:04.600 example. So there's a false sense of security, I think, around the Canada pension plan. I think there's

00:06:11.640 also a lack of confidence and trust in the government, which is a bad combination for the UCP

00:06:18.600 at this particular time because, you know, people believe that the CPP is this untouchable best in

00:06:25.160 the world, which is not true. It has its faults. For example, unfunded liabilities to the tune of $1.14

00:06:33.160 trillion. Now that number is not getting smaller. It's getting larger by the year. Back in 2019,

00:06:40.760 that was $884 billion. As of 2021, that was $1.14 trillion and it will grow again. In 2026,

00:06:51.400 for example, expenditures for the first time in the history of the Canada pension plan and Canada,

00:06:59.080 the expenditures will actually exceed the contributions. So you can only then imagine how

00:07:08.200 large those unfunded liabilities are actually going to become. Economically, there's some assumptions

00:07:14.360 that are being made to prop up the Canada pension plan and economically Canada is not in a strong

00:07:21.640 place. So Alberta, however, is very much in a much stronger position economically. Demographics,

00:07:29.720 again, Canada, you look at birth rates and mortality rates, right? The death rate as well as how many live

00:07:35.480 births we have. And the birth rate is declining and our mortality rate is increasing. Again, that doesn't

00:07:42.360 bode well for Canada as a whole, but Alberta is one of the few provinces that's bucking that trend. We

00:07:49.000 have the youngest, we have more people moving into the province than leaving, and we also have higher

00:07:54.920 incomes. So from a contribution perspective, Alberta is actually propping up the rest of Canada right now.

00:08:02.600 Yeah. I mean, that makes sense to me, even just what you said about us having a lot of young

00:08:06.840 people moving here. I've covered this extensively on my show. My viewers know there's more people

00:08:11.000 moving to Alberta than any other province in Canada. And I think a lot of it is young families

00:08:15.240 who have been priced out of places like BC and Ontario, you know, speaking a little bit from

00:08:20.040 experience there. And, you know, I know a ton of conservatives who have massive, massive families,

00:08:24.840 lots of kids. So all the things that you're saying are very easy to believe. So then if Alberta was to

00:08:31.000 actually leave the Canada Pension Plan, what would that mean for us as a province? What would the

00:08:35.880 benefits of that be? Well, I mean, it's really for us to define. So what if we want to see better

00:08:43.000 benefits, if we want to see lower contribution rates, you know, the numbers make sense. And from

00:08:49.720 an economy perspective, I think it puts us in a fantastic position as far as better leverage also

00:08:55.960 with the federal government and with Ottawa. So one of the biggest concerns I have with the

00:09:00.680 Canada Pension Plan is the political interference. People believe that it is independent and it is

00:09:06.920 on a day-to-day basis. Nobody tells it what to buy or when to trade or when to sell investments,

00:09:13.880 but it is still subject to a lot of political influence from legislature and other government

00:09:19.880 agencies. Ofsee, for example, the Office of Superintendent for Financial Institutions.

00:09:26.600 And right now, most of those policies are very anti-Alberta because they are very anti-oil and gas.

00:09:34.200 And I have an example, and this is we're trying to make things relevant to people. For example,

00:09:39.320 Quebec has its own pension plan. Could you imagine if Quebec came out and said,

00:09:43.960 hey, we're going to stop all hydroelectric production and we're not going to support,

00:09:51.400 we're not going to invest, we're not going to provide any kind of financial security and

00:09:57.480 we're eliminating hydroelectricity. Do you think the Quebec population is going to support that?

00:10:03.480 So for me as an Albertan, I think one of the biggest things is taking back control of the things

00:10:08.840 that we can, especially around our natural resources. And I think this is such a huge

00:10:13.720 opportunity for Albertans in establishing their own Alberta pension plan to do exactly that. I

00:10:20.360 personally do not recommend that Albertans partake in their own demise. And the Canada pension plan

00:10:27.160 is not very Alberta friendly from a policy standpoint. So, you know, when Premier Smith first

00:10:35.640 announced this, there was a lot of pushback. I think some of the polling, the early polling that

00:10:39.800 we saw come out on this wasn't super in favor of pulling out of the Canada pension plan. You're

00:10:44.520 going around to the province, you're having these meetings, trying to really convince people or just

00:10:48.040 lay out the facts and I guess even let them make up their own minds as to this is something that would

00:10:52.040 be a good thing. How successful do you think these meetings are going so far and how, when people show

00:10:58.360 up to them, what are kind of some of the concerns that they initially have?

00:11:01.000 I think the biggest concerns are about mobility, whether or not they can move across provinces or

00:11:08.040 international and still collect their pension. And of course they can, all those agreements

00:11:12.600 are already in place. Those are simple things. The other one, like I pointed out earlier, seems to be

00:11:19.160 a lack of trust or lack of confidence in the government to be able to do this. But again, setting up a

00:11:25.000 pension fund, I know there's a lot of moving parts, but there's a lot of private investment funds out

00:11:30.840 there that are large. And once you get past, you know, the billion, five billion, 10 billion mark,

00:11:38.040 you have access to the same quality of investments. They find you, you don't have to go find them.

00:11:44.520 And people in the industry like myself and, you know, my colleagues, this is not a hurdle that can't be

00:11:51.800 overcome. It's just going to take us a little bit of time. And then of course there is going to be a bit of

00:11:56.360 a transition. So I think the fears that people have really just boils down to a lack of information and

00:12:03.320 or the misinformation, um, and some of the fear around making the change that people, some people

00:12:12.120 more than others have been emphasizing and playing upon. So again, really important to get relevant

00:12:18.360 facts. And most people honestly don't even know what questions to actually ask because they don't

00:12:24.760 understand what the key parts, the moving parts of this actually are and where to focus their

00:12:31.080 attention. And that's where somebody like myself having worked in the industry and having, you know,

00:12:36.120 colleagues that are still managing multi-billion dollar funds to rely on as far as numbers and

00:12:41.720 models and getting the actual data, um, and then presenting it in such a way that it makes sense to

00:12:48.200 you. We're not trying to, you know, convince you one way or the other, although it's very obvious

00:12:53.080 which way, uh, I'm leaning, but at the end of the day, you know, we need to have a referendum. We need

00:12:59.560 people to get actively involved, seek out the right information, get informed, and then cast a ballot,

00:13:06.600 a vote one way or the other so that we can, you know, resolve the issue and, uh, then move on to the

00:13:12.520 next, uh, big issue that, you know, we have here in Alberta. When would you like the referendum to happen?

00:13:17.560 Ideally, I think the referendum needs to happen before the federal election. And my reason for

00:13:23.080 that is a little bit political because I think so many people are so reliant on politicians to fix our

00:13:29.960 problems and politicians, as I think most of your viewers will agree are a part of the problem.

00:13:36.200 They're not the solution. And so I think, you know, people will become more laissez-faire. I think if we see

00:13:42.040 a, uh, Pierre Polyev and a conservative government come back into power in the federal, um, jurisdiction,

00:13:49.320 and the problem with that is this problem wasn't just created as a result of Justin Trudeau.

00:13:54.760 I think it's really, he's exposed the majority of the problems, but I think Alberta as a whole needs

00:14:02.200 to take back control of those areas of jurisdiction that belong to it. It's much easier for individuals,

00:14:10.040 for Albertans to influence an Alberta government than it is for us to influence a federal government.

00:14:16.440 I'm sure that some of my viewers will be very interested in what you have to say.

00:14:20.280 And for those who are hoping to maybe come out to one of your meetings and pepper you with some

00:14:23.960 questions, where can they find more information? So we are establishing a website called the Alberta

00:14:30.440 First Pension, and you can go to that website for more information. Currently, we are working with a

00:14:36.440 number of groups, including, um, Alberta Prosperity Project, which has listed the events as well,

00:14:43.240 as I think TBA Taking Back Alberta has listed some events as well for us, and there'll be more.

00:14:49.080 But, um, our next event is actually in Caroline on Saturday at 6pm. It's going to be at the Ag

00:14:55.320 Center. Then there's another event in Calgary at the Riviera on Wednesday evening at 7pm. We're going to

00:15:02.920 be in Beaumont, I think is already scheduled. Czar is already scheduled. Um, Westlock has already been

00:15:09.240 scheduled. And of course, we'll be filling that schedule out and literally doing a hundred stops

00:15:15.480 across the province. So definitely check the Alberta Pension, AlbertaFirstPension.ca.

00:15:22.200 And of course, if you're members of some of the other, uh, groups in here in Alberta,

00:15:26.760 check with them as well. We are trying to reach out to as many

00:15:29.800 and provide a united front to make sure that people get the information that they need.

00:15:35.000 Nadine, thank you so much for your time today. And to the rest of my viewers,

00:15:38.120 I will see you guys all on Saturday. I hope you have a great rest of your week.

00:15:41.800 Wonderful. Thank you so much.

The Alberta Roundup with Isaac Lamoureux - February 14, 2024

Correcting the record about an Alberta Pension Plan

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