The Alberta Roundup with Isaac Lamoureux - Ottawa already seeking to 'derail' an Alberta pension

00:00:00.000 Hey everyone, welcome back to the Alberta Roundup. I'm your host, Rachel Emanuel.

00:00:14.360 Today, we are once again taking a look at the Alberta pension plan. We know that there has

00:00:18.640 been some people organizing all over the province trying to push this thing through. Today, I am

00:00:23.640 joined by Mitch Sylvester. He's the UCP chair for Bonneville, and he's also the lead on the

00:00:28.560 Alberta First Pension. Mitch, thanks so much for joining us today. Yeah, you're welcome. Nice to

00:00:33.360 be here. So Mitch, why don't you start off by explaining, I know that you've been doing town

00:00:38.560 halls all over the province, informing people about the Alberta pension plan, what that would

00:00:42.580 look like for Albertans. What exactly is your plan here? What are you guys working on right now?

00:00:47.300 Well, what we're trying to do is we're trying to basically educate people and get them to

00:00:50.680 understand why it's such a good idea to move the Alberta pension plan here from the CPP.

00:00:54.380 Um, we're really seeing that it's an absolute no-brainer from our perspective. Um, Albertans

00:01:00.720 will be richer, uh, we'll have a better pension plan in the end. Um, and it'll be a large transfer

00:01:06.440 of a huge asset to the province of Alberta and away from control of the federal government.

00:01:11.940 So you just said it's a no-brainer, you know, what are some of the actual digits that we're

00:01:16.060 looking at? What would be the cost benefit for Albertans if we were to pull ourselves out

00:01:20.120 of the Canadian pension plan? Well, just, just Albertans pay $9 billion a year to the CPP

00:01:25.460 and only collect six. So that'll give us the opportunity to use the difference to give our

00:01:30.660 seniors a large increase in pay. The way we're framing this is that we can give seniors a 40%

00:01:35.640 increase in pay, which comes to about $3,600 a year based on a $750 a month check, which is the

00:01:42.460 average. And the other great benefit of that is, is that, uh, the fund actually owes the province

00:01:49.100 of Alberta $335 billion based on the original formula that set this whole thing in motion.

00:01:54.920 So when Canada Pension was built, it was designed so that people could leave the pension fund

00:01:59.440 and leave with their contributions, their net contributions, even if they had run their own

00:02:04.440 pension plan. So as a consequence to that, Alberta's overpaid or has paid more, uh, than other

00:02:11.160 provinces and accumulated $335 billion. Now that's based on an actuarial report by, uh, LifeWorks,

00:02:19.000 which is formerly Marnot-Chapelle. Now looking at that, we understand that when they came up with

00:02:25.240 that $335 billion number, uh, I'm sure that they looked at it very carefully, fully understanding how

00:02:31.880 big a deal that was going to be if they released that number and how much of a big deal it would be

00:02:36.560 for the province of Alberta to acquire an asset of that size. So one of the things that you just

00:02:42.380 said that caught my attention there was that if we were to pull ourselves out of the Canada pension

00:02:46.320 plan, we would actually be able to give seniors a boost in their pension plan payments. One of the

00:02:50.840 things that the Alberta NDP has been saying time and time again with Alberta Premier Daniel Smith,

00:02:54.980 and looking at this idea of an Alberta pension plan is, you know, they're really fear-mongering.

00:02:58.620 They're saying to seniors, you guys aren't going to have a pension. The Alberta government wants to

00:03:02.720 steal your pension. Sounds like you're saying the exact opposite. What would be the monetary value

00:03:07.540 of this boost to payments for seniors? $3,600 a year, it would be very easy to do without changing

00:03:14.180 anything. So it's based on our contributions, which are $9 billion a year, because we're younger,

00:03:20.240 we work more hours, and we're richer. And that's not going to change for 25 more years. So what we're

00:03:26.940 seeing is that in the very short term, Albertans will be able to get an immediate 40% raise

00:03:32.620 but in order to bring it over it, it has to at least match CPP. But that won't be a problem,

00:03:38.440 we'd still have that $3 billion surplus. So if we decided to give seniors a 40% increase in income,

00:03:47.180 we could actually leave that $335 billion, or whatever that number is that they owe us sitting

00:03:52.640 in one pile. And we could allow it to collect interest. If we allowed that to collect interest

00:03:58.000 at the current rate, in eight years, it would double. So just imagine we'd have $670 billion

00:04:02.820 in a pile there that was also collecting interest. And at the current rate of return,

00:04:09.500 that would give us about 10 times the annual rate of return of what we actually pay

00:04:14.700 into Canada Pension. So the stability of it is unquestioned. There's absolutely no worries

00:04:20.160 about stability. As a matter of fact, I would venture to say that we would be way more stable

00:04:28.000 So Mitch, you've been doing some of these town halls. What are some of the questions

00:04:31.940 that you're getting? How are Albertans feeling about the prospect of having their own pension plan?

00:04:36.560 Well, everybody's very excited about it by the time you leave the building.

00:04:40.720 What I'm seeing, the big concern is, is the transportation part of it.

00:04:45.140 But I mean, that's built into every pension plan. The pension would follow you if you decide

00:04:49.580 to move away and you've paid into Alberta pension. It would be just the transportation part of it

00:04:54.680 would be just like CPP. If you move somewhere else, it follows you around. I think that's

00:04:58.620 the biggest worry people have. We haven't really heard much about the fact that people are afraid

00:05:03.640 that the pension wouldn't be there for them. One of the things we know is that the Alberta

00:05:07.700 government commissioned this report and the federal government disputed its findings. And now we're

00:05:12.100 waiting for the federal government to say what they actually believe Alberta is out. I believe that

00:05:15.580 number is expected in the fall. Is this an issue for people saying, well, I'm interested in having

00:05:19.980 an Alberta pension plan, but I don't actually know what we would be getting from the federal

00:05:23.980 government. And so I'm not really keen to make a decision until we hear that number from the feds.

00:05:27.820 Is that something that's coming up?

00:05:30.960 That's only coming up from government. I really haven't heard it from the people. The people

00:05:35.660 are anxious. Everybody understands that there's going to be money coming over. The lowest number

00:05:41.180 we've heard is $120 billion. Even at $120 billion, if you look at the financial position of the province,

00:05:47.200 which is $100 billion in debt with $25 billion in the Heritage Trust Fund, that's still a large

00:05:53.440 windfall. That's a lot of money. But that's also not including the $9 billion a year that we pay

00:06:01.780 into the fund, which makes it very stable for Albertans, much more stable than for probably

00:06:05.780 anywhere else in the country. So even without the number, we have a very stable fund and could give

00:06:11.780 seniors an increase in pay.

00:06:12.780 So, you know, that latter number that you just mentioned, do you think it's still worth it then

00:06:18.180 for Alberta to pull out of the Canada pension plan, have its own, even if the federal government

00:06:21.540 were to say, I disagree with your findings, I'm going to give you, you know, about one third

00:06:24.960 of what the province is asking for, what the province believe it's owed. Is it still worth it

00:06:28.980 to pull out and create our own?

00:06:31.600 Absolutely. It would be, it's still, it's still absolutely worth it. It's, it's, it's more than,

00:06:36.900 it would still be one of the most solid pension plans anywhere in the world. There's absolutely

00:06:42.420 no way that if somebody offers you even $125 billion with the amount that, with the way we pay

00:06:49.660 in, that by the time that our demographics and our population gets to the point where we're

00:06:55.620 collecting more than we're paying, that fund will be a huge amount of money. The other thing that I see

00:07:00.720 here is, is, is that most, most people that we talk to in town halls and everything don't really

00:07:06.960 feel that there's going to be a pension plan there for, for the younger people or for their kids.

00:07:11.460 This way we would assuredly have a pension plan there for everybody.

00:07:16.280 Yeah. When we talk about that $125 billion being on the lower end, I mean, I think you'll agree with

00:07:20.920 me that the current federal level government isn't exactly a big fan of Alberta. Most of us feel we

00:07:25.700 haven't exactly gotten a fair deal. Seems that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau isn't too interested in

00:07:29.560 Albertans. Do you think there's any chance that, I mean, for lack of a better word, the feds would

00:07:33.760 maybe try to screw Alberta over even more than by giving them less than that $125 billion? I just

00:07:38.820 suspect they are going to make this process as difficult as possible and to drag it out as long

00:07:43.520 as possible because it's not in Ottawa's best interest to have Alberta pull out of this plan. 0.56

00:07:49.460 That's absolutely correct. So right now they're already trying to, to derail us. Heather McPherson's an NDP

00:07:56.160 member from Edmonton is putting in legislation that would, that would actually say that they're

00:08:01.960 going to have to change the rules as they go. So, so what they're, what they're proposing is they're

00:08:07.280 proposing to make it like a constitutional thing where you have to have seven out of 10 provinces

00:08:10.980 agree before Alberta could leave the pension plan. Based on the current agreement, it's Alberta's right

00:08:15.980 to leave the pension plan anytime it wants. If they change that, which is such a large asset at stake,

00:08:22.500 I think they're going to do everything they can to keep it. I believe that that would be their best

00:08:27.360 chance to derail this. I think the number's in stone. I really think that, I talked to other

00:08:32.440 actuaries and I asked them literally, how close is this number? And they said, well, you have to

00:08:38.200 understand the fact that these people have done the homework and they've looked really hard at these

00:08:42.120 numbers and they wouldn't publish that and put their name on it if they thought that this number wasn't

00:08:46.340 very accurate. And the other thing that I always bring up at our talks and meetings is that Bill

00:08:51.340 Marneau, who was finance minister for the Liberals up until a very few years ago, it's his firm that

00:08:58.120 wrote this report up. He's very aware of what that number is. He's a Liberal. He totally doesn't,

00:09:03.300 he totally understands the consequences of putting that kind of a number out there.

00:09:07.080 Our biggest thing is that it's such a slam dunk no-brainer for us. We're just not understanding

00:09:12.600 why Albertans are not all excited about getting it to come over as fast as they can. Everybody's wary

00:09:17.980 of it, but I think that there's no need to be. I think it's absolutely, it's law. It's something

00:09:25.120 that's been thought out in the 60s when they wrote it up. And the number coming to Alberta is

00:09:31.200 legitimately large. And that's why all the fuss. You said, you know, people seem a bit wary. Usually

00:09:37.840 after the town halls, people sound more excited about it, hearing the benefit to Albertans. Have you

00:09:42.320 noticed a difference at all doing a town hall and say rural Alberta versus somewhere like Edmonton,

00:09:46.140 the response, or is it pretty much the same everywhere you go? It's been pretty much the

00:09:50.960 same everywhere we go. We've had very little opposition, actually, in the town halls we've

00:09:57.020 been at. We bring an expert to answer the questions. That's not me. It's been 10 or 10

00:10:05.860 in a day has been coming with us. He's an economist. So he answers all the hard questions because he has

00:10:11.260 all the answers. That's what he does for a living. And he currently agrees that it would be a very,

00:10:17.200 very good deal for Alberta. And actual Marnot Chappelle's report actually agrees that it would

00:10:22.020 be a very good deal for Alberta. So we're not by ourselves in thinking that it's going to be a

00:10:27.180 very good deal for Alberta. Actually, anybody that talks about it agrees that this is a very good deal

00:10:32.020 for Alberta, not such a good deal for the rest of the country. But you know what? I think that's not

00:10:37.780 our concern. I think the rest of the country votes against Alberta on a regular basis. They bring in

00:10:44.620 governments that try to hurt Alberta and continue to try to hurt Alberta. So I think Alberta in this

00:10:51.520 particular case needs to take care of itself. I was looking at some numbers and it seems like

00:10:56.260 everywhere else from the rest of Canada is trying to move here anyway. So it might be in their best 0.86

00:10:59.160 interest after all. More people are moving to Alberta than any other province in Canada.

00:11:03.520 So Mitch, you know, you're doing these town halls. What exactly is the process? You guys are

00:11:07.040 collecting signatures. Explain to me what are the steps that you're doing before you might actually

00:11:10.960 have a referendum on having an Alberta pension plan? So we need 10% of the electorate to sign

00:11:16.440 on our petition in order to get the referendum triggered. What we need to do is we need to gather

00:11:24.240 the names of the people. We have a 90-day window to do it. So we're going to gather the names ahead of

00:11:30.100 time. And then we're going to go door to door and get the signatures after it's done.

00:11:33.960 Or if failing that, the other thing that's come up lately is we just might do a straight

00:11:40.160 door-to-door campaign after we do the town halls. So you're doing the town halls, collecting signatures

00:11:46.200 now, getting the names. And that way, when you only have that 90-day period, you kind of know who to

00:11:50.220 go back to and get signatures from again. Do I have that correct? Absolutely. That's exactly the plan.

00:11:56.300 So for people who are listening or interested, is there somewhere that you're posting your town halls,

00:12:00.220 people who can know where to go? How can people best get involved? Okay, so we have an Alberta First

00:12:05.860 Pension website. You can sign up directly on the website. You can do it there. And then the other

00:12:11.040 thing is, is our town halls are all going to be posted there. We'll be going all over Alberta again.

00:12:16.160 So we'll have a town hall very close to where you live, no matter where you live. We're going to go

00:12:20.540 back to the peace country and then come back south. We're going to be in Edmonton on Monday night

00:12:25.600 to 27th. And then we'll be starting a whole bunch more meetings in June, back to central

00:12:31.440 southern Alberta, the far south. So yeah, we pretty much got Alberta all covered, already all booked

00:12:37.760 and all covered for the next five, six weeks. Great. Mitch, thanks so much for joining us today.

00:12:43.040 You know, I don't think the Alberta pension plan has gotten much coverage in the legacy media,

00:12:46.880 but it's probably one of the bigger stories unfolding in the province right now. It'll be

00:12:50.160 interesting to see what happens in the next couple of months and certainly to see what that number

00:12:53.740 that the federal government offers us in October is. So thanks very much again for explaining to

00:12:57.940 my audience and just telling us a little bit about what's going on in those efforts.

00:13:01.720 Yeah. Thanks, Rachel. Thanks for the opportunity.

00:13:03.740 All right, everyone. I hope that you guys have a great rest of your week. Don't forget to subscribe

00:13:07.180 to True North so you don't miss any of my content or any of my colleagues' content and to like this

00:13:11.680 video. Let me know if you guys want to hear more about the Alberta pension plan. I'll see you guys

00:13:15.620 on Saturday. Have a great week and God bless.

00:13:23.740 Thank you.

The Alberta Roundup with Isaac Lamoureux - June 05, 2024

Ottawa already seeking to 'derail' an Alberta pension

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