What's your prediction for the election?
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Summary
Join me for the final edition of the roundup in which I am joined by three wonderful panelists to break down the campaign events of the week. In this special edition of , I am once again joined by Evan Menzies at Crestview Strategies, Erica Baroudi s on the UCP campaign, and Chris Sims at the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.
Transcript
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hey everyone welcome back to the alberta roundup i'm your host rachel emanuel i hope that you guys
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are having a great week so far thank you for joining me for the final episode of election
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watch that's our special edition of the alberta roundup in which i am joined by three wonderful
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panelists to break down the campaign events of the week we're going to head to them now i am once
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again joined by evan menzies at crestview strategies erica baroudi's on the ucp campaign
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and chris sims she's the alberta director of the canadian taxpayers federation we'll head to them
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now hey everyone welcome back to the show and to the final edition of election watch it's certainly
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been very fun having you all here with me one thing i wanted to start off if i felt like the last week
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of the campaign has been a little bit quiet erica i know i've talked to some people on the ucp campaign
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who said it was intentional that they tried not to over announce not to over promise during the
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election campaign do you think this perhaps quiet week has been a symptom of that absolutely you know
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we're looking at a lot of people paid attention to the debate a lot of stuff early on that showcases you
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know the things that you've heard from the ucp the entire time economy affordability public safety and
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so you know we've also seen the the turning of tides i guess or as i like to call the tsn turning
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point which is when the um ndp brought in their you know business tax and we really saw people getting
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angry um really mad and pushing back so we kind of just let it let that happen and focused on again
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being positive for the remainder of of the campaign i mean i wouldn't say quiet was yesterday's rally but
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i think we'll be talking about that too when we talk about a turning point in the campaign i know
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last week we talked about how danielle smith had a very strong debate performance there was a huge
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ucp rally in calgary yesterday we'll get to that a little bit later on but some of the people i've
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talked to have said they really felt like that debate performance was a turning point for the party
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at that point the mood really changed at the doors and just among people who are working on the
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campaign evan do you think that is really a response to the fact that danielle smith did have a strong
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performance and did kind of exactly what she needed to do by staying positive and delivering her message
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during last week's debate yeah listen she she crushed it she did exactly what she needed to do
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i think it's worth taking just a minute here to sort of reflect about where the ucp has been over the
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last few years the party's been fractured there's been a lot of contentious debates uh premier danielle
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smith has only been premier for seven months uh there's been a need to sort of consolidate uh the
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conservative vote in the province uh i'm i'm i'm definitely hopeful and thinking that that is
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occurring and with the performance uh danielle had at the debate last week it sent the signal that uh
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conservatives let's get this done uh let's all come home together and we've seen that this week as
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well we saw some endorsements of course from uh federal leader pierre polyev steven harper has been
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on the campaign trail as well and i think this is sending the signal conservatives let's come together
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let's uh repair any of the wounds from the battles from the last couple years and let's get this done
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uh on election day on monday sure and when we talk about that endorsement from pierre polyev as you
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mentioned we did also have one from steven harper i felt that polyevs was a little bit stronger he did
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mentioned daniel smith by name his was a little bit longer more specific as to what a ucp government
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would mean for canada and for the province and a lot of people say oh well you know of course a
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conservative is going to endorse another conservative well not always conservatives
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across canada have often not been united it's actually a really rare sign to see them unite in
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this way because there's so many fractures within the party and within the movement at times
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one of the other things that i would say is that i don't think polyev would have given
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this endorsement if he wasn't pretty sure that daniel smith is going to form government on monday
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erica what's your take well i definitely love to see you know former leader um ronna ambrose
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steven harper pierre polyev come out supporting us um i don't know if it's out yet but there might be
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another one coming from steven harper that gives a little bit more uh clarification on exactly what
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that means both for canada and um alberta um you know everyone's kind of talking about how we've
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seen this shift you know we still will work hard act like you're four votes behind but um having an
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endorsement from pierre you're right i think a lot of us live through pc and wild rose days where um
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we we were fractured within our federal uh family and i think that it is impactful to have pierre come
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out i think it's definitely a sign that you know we are performing and the momentum is there we just
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have to get this across the finish line and and be a re-elected government so i quickly wanted to
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move to one of the announcements the ucp did make this week daniel smith made this announcement on
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wednesday in calgary she said that a re-elected united conservative party government would force a
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referendum on a future government that tried to increase personal taxes or taxes on job creators
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i did try to get her to commit to adding the carbon tax to this referendum she didn't commit
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to that seems like it could have been an easy win chris what's your take yeah that's our take exactly
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so just to back up for people who don't know what this is the taxpayer protection act has been in place
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now here in alberta for years it's one of the strongest laws protecting taxpayers in all of north
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america if you enjoy not paying a pst it's because of the taxpayer protection act because any politician
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that wanted to put through a provincial sales tax would have to win a referendum here first
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good luck with that and so what's really great about this promise from the ucp is that they're
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saying okay let's expand it so that any increase to personal income taxes or increase to business
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taxes also has to win a referendum like that's a game changer for taxpayers so we're super happy about
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that and what we're urging them to do is to say hey who knows what the future is going to hold
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someday trudeau's carbon tax could be gone at the federal level let's shield albertans in perpetuity
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from another provincial carbon tax let's just write that in there because we know what's happened before
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rachel notley with her ndp government surprised albertans with one in 2015 it cost people more
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than a billion dollars per year and she had never campaigned on the thing so we think it's a really
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smart thing to put inside the taxpayer protection act i do have to say that i wonder if one of the
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reasons they're not including this in bill one the proposed bill one which would be their first piece
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of legislation if they are re-elected is because they're planning another challenge to the carbon tax
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i guess we'll have to wait a little bit longer to hear about that in future days if they are in fact
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re-elected on monday now i want to move to the campaign rally i would say this was the biggest moment
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of the week this was on thursday night so many people came out the crowd was about 1100 people from
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what i heard we're just going to play our viewers a little video for our viewers who weren't able to
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make it just so you could see a bit of the crowd size and the energy as well in the room
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a ucp spokesperson also told me that they had planned to hold the event inside but too many
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people showed up so they had to move it outside to that tent there you know these types of things
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are always really funny because i attend these events i'm just trying to post some information
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online to make people aware and you get of course the stupidest attacks people just get so angry
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about stuff like this oh the crowd is really not that big oh the crowd's so white oh they all look
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so old it really is so silly and just unbelievably frustrating when you're just trying to do your job
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but erica maybe you can speak to why this type of rally was important i know i talked to some
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people who said oh i really feel like we should be out at the doors right now there was about 35 mlas
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when they were first announced i think a couple came late and of course all the staffers were there
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as well so they weren't doing a lot of active campaigning on the doors but i think sometimes
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it can speak to just rallying the energy and getting people excited for monday's vote maybe you can speak
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to that erica yeah so vitro and i had to stick back to do our broadcast so we we missed going down
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and usually i'm the first person to say no rallies hit the doors to exactly what you're talking about
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and i had fomo last night i i wish that i could have seen seen that crowd um it is coming back to
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what we were talking about about momentum right this is danielle smith being able to speak to our
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supporters show the volume of our supporters i mean the traffic was backed up down the highway it started
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30 40 minutes late uh because they wanted to make sure that everyone could get in um you know i hate
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i hate social media and i hate how people tried to depict it it's i mean it just shows that it worked
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it got people out it got people motivated and what the goal from the campaign is is that we'll transition
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to people getting to advance polls people being able to then volunteer on on e-day so that we can really
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push this over over the edge so i usually am anti uh rally and i think last night was a good tone to
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set for for internal morale but also to get some more resources on e-day yeah absolutely evan i know
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that i saw you in the crowd what was your takeaway from the event personally i felt like danielle smith's
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public speaking while already good has improved strongly during the campaign it was a strong event
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again yesterday and i think she delivered a positive message for for voters but what was your takeaway
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your coupon yeah no for uh definitely i i think one thing that's important to remember too in the
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discussion about why why rallying event like this matters is the ndp and uh and their their pundits
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on on the left they're really pushing hard trying to suppress turnout uh this week trying to present
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this idea in this image that uh no no conservatives uh are coming our direction and i think this event
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showed quite clearly that there is a um definite energy for conservative supporters in the city uh that
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yeah premier danielle smith has been on our a-game this entire election uh whether it's been taking questions
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from the media meeting with uh volunteers uh uh campaign pit stops of course we mentioned the debate
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already and i thought her message was pitch perfect last night uh talking about notley's record in office
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albertans don't want to go back the threat of the sing trudeau notley coalition uh it was uh yeah pitch
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perfect for the audience i think everyone left that feeling good i i do think uh listen the ndp had a
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uh a rally in calgary acadia in a room that had a capacity of 400 people they tried saying it was a
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thousand uh the ucp had their rally and it was outside because they went over capacity inside uh i i
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you know they had there was a giant lineup of cars outside folks who were feeling jazzed so i think it
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was an important event and i think it will bear good fruits for the uh uh the last sort of couple
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days of advanced polls and into election day sure so i guess if we're using the ndp standards to
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measure thursday night's crowd size we would peg it at maybe like a hundred thousand people i think
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i have that correct um i know that we've covered public safety a lot on this show for my viewers
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danielle smith did speak to that yesterday she said we are running on public safety and talked about
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some of the rising criminal activity and how that was unacceptable we're going to play a clip for
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for you guys right now on that public safety because albertans need to feel safe in their homes
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and on transit and in their communities we know that calgarians and edmontonians want to be able
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to enjoy a game or a meal or have their kids go downtown without worrying that they're going to be
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randomly insulted or stabbed or have to walk past an open doorway and be exposed to secondhand crystal
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so just a small segment of her speech yesterday of course if you're interested in hearing more
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of it you can definitely find that on my social media but now i want to move to the advanced polls
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that began this week on tuesday and is running till saturday as of the time as filming we have about
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470 000 votes cast in the advanced polls now in 2019 we saw just under 700 000 votes cast in the
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advanced polls in total that was record-breaking numbers so i don't think we're seeing the same
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turnout i think we can expect to see these numbers jump by maybe 100 150 000 before the advanced polls
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close i'm sure a lot of people myself included wait till the absolutely last possible second but evan
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what is your read on these votes does this mean that people aren't excited about a daniel smith
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government does it mean that they're thinking the ucp will stay in government and aren't feeling the
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need to turn out and vote another option is also that some people are really skeptical of the
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tabulators being used the tabulators are being used to count the advanced polls so that there's not a
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delay and people who are typically more conservative would be a little bit nervous of that type of
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technology being used in an election they might wait to show up till election day to vote when their
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ballots are going to be hand counted evan what's your take yeah first of all i tell any conservatives
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worried about that not to worry uh their vote will be counted and they should definitely show up in
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at advanced polls it's traditionally been an advantage for conservatives in this province
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that we show up at advanced polls and i think we are showing up at advanced polls this election
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um but you know as far as uh reading into um what does this all mean on turnout so far i'd expect that
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the turnout might be a little larger than it was last election on the advanced poll count but it's it's
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really hard to read on what it all means i think in the ontario recent ontario election they had
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increased advanced voter turnout voters have just become more comfortable as this this as being the
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format that they uh they used to uh show up with their ballot uh you know in advance of election day
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so uh it's hard hard to say what exactly it all means uh other than at least for me just that people
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are more comfortable with the format but yeah i i would definitely for uh eric you could speak to this too
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but for campaigns every time a conservative voter gets their vote in before election day that just
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means that they've got more resources to uh on election day to get those last people out that
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they need to make sure that the victory happens so if you're still waiting to get your vote out uh
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you know advanced votes uh polls close on saturday so definitely take advantage of it if you can
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yeah that's an interesting perspective i actually hadn't considered that erica you're in
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the war room what are you guys looking for when you're taking a look at these advanced polling numbers
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yeah so i first want to come back to to the tabulator real quick uh if i can because i think
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last week during the show i was at a very robust demonstration of the tabulators and to evan's
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point um they you know i completely have trust and confidence in their process so if that is what's
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holding you back um take my word i guess uh and just realize that that there is quite a robust process
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um and that you know everything we saw was smooth as can be so um but coming back to what we're seeing
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so from from the inside look especially in our target ridings um in calgary in the donut we are
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seeing a large portion of our when we're going doing gotv for advanced polls large portion people being
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like i already voted i already voted which is such a great thing to hear because to evan's point it
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you know relieves you from doing the large outreach on election day um and then you can really focus
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on on getting the folks you need uh for those numbers to get to the door so we have seen a very
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positive uptake i do agree that we'll probably be just slightly under where we were last time in
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advanced polls but if i can reach voters in any way i would say vote as early and as soon as possible
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it does help us from a local campaign perspective it also helps us kind of be able to put our resources
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where we need to on election day yeah and thanks for that bit about the tabulators for my viewers
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who do remain concerned about them i have covered it extensively you can certainly go back and find
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my work on that i know that premier smith has said she feels comfortable with them because the paper
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ballots are going to be retained in case a recount is necessary unlike what we've seen in some other
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elections where the ballots are actually destroyed and a recount is not possible that will not be
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happening in this case now we've talked about the advanced polls i want to move to the polling these
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numbers have been so crazy and so all over the place i don't think anyone knows what's going
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to happen in the election except for of course a main street research ceo keto maggie he is calling
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for an ndp government on monday he said i believe on twitter that he would eat two hats if there's an
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ndp if there's a ucp government rather on monday so he's feeling pretty confident in his numbers
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then we know that i think hq poll for calgary came out showing that the ndp were six points ahead
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again that was just in calgary but then just friday morning we got another poll from the janet brown
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pollster we've talked about on the show before how she's very well respected in this province
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and she's showing a ucp government on monday with 52 points for the ucp and 44 for the ndp
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chris these numbers are so all over the place what's your take uh polling is really difficult to trust
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because of course everybody is obsessed with watching them because there's so much of their lives
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invested right no matter which party you're in uh you've been eating and sleeping in that war room
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now for probably the last six weeks i know what that feels like and so you're always looking for
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indicators what we would say from a taxpayer's perspective at the ctf is we don't endorse a
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party what we do push for our policies and from our people there's thousands of them in alberta
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we keep hearing about lower taxes no carbon tax balanced budgets taxpayer protections so to
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everybody listening right now i would give the same advice that i always do to our people at the ctf
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you already know what you want to do you're already informed tell 10 friends tell 10 friends if you're
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already listening to this podcast you're engaged you're active you know what you want out of this
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province they've got you so to speak tell 10 friends of what you think is important if you're
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opposed to the carbon tax if you think balanced budgets are important if you think fiscal restraint is
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important so that we actually have money to save for a rainy day to pay for things like emergencies
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and schools and hospitals and all those things that people like and we don't want to see massive
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debt piled up and we don't want to see credit downgrades tell 10 friends well i dare say that
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was chris's final pitch for voters before they head to the polls this weekend and on monday evan maybe
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you can give us your take on the polls are you reading a lot into them what's your take some say the
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bubbles in an arrow truffle piece can take 34 seconds to melt in your mouth sometimes the very
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amount you're stuck at the same red light rich creamy chocolatey arrow truffle feel the arrow bubbles melt
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it's mind bubbling yeah i mean i would tell conservative voters that uh you know keto's had a couple misses
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uh before measuring calgary and alberta audiences so if you wanted to see want to see him uh eat two hats
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show up and vote uh go help a campaign out uh they need all hands on deck here and uh i i wouldn't
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i was involved in the 2012 wild rose election campaign and we had good polls right up until
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the day before and you can't um you can't take anything for granted so i i would say that there's
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some good trend lines for the ucp i would say both from a quantitative talking about these polls but also a
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qualitative perspective i've been talking to people at the doors that that there is a real sort of
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stern backbone to the conservative vote and i i would expect strong turnout i would expect the
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conservative vote to outperform uh some of these polls that we've been seeing but uh it's just
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absolutely crucial this weekend that you show up and vote the alberta ndp and it's not talked about
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nearly often enough but they've effectively consolidated and sucked in the entire left-wing
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vote in alberta alberta is um a conservative province and how it thinks and and views issues
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and and uh obviously how it views its relationship with ottawa but it's uh the left-wing's always had
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a 35 to 45 percent vote coalition in the province and they're fully united so you can't take anything
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for granted you got to show up and vote you got to help out uh wherever you can if you want to see
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a ucp government on monday okay guys before i let you go everyone has to give their election
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prediction what do you think is going to happen on monday and what do you think the seat count is
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going to be erica i'm going to go to you first you were going to do that um no i well i'm feeling
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optimistic i think um both chris and evan spoke to it the doors are getting warmer the doors are the
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undecideds are are folding to to conservatives because of the record versus disastrous record um so
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i'm obviously given a ucp win um i don't know if i can should say this i think that i'm going to give
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a range because i'm going to cop out on this uh probably 48 to 52 seats for the ucp well you're
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allowed to cop out because you're on the campaign but the rest of you aren't going to be so lucky
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uh chris what's your prediction i'm pretty terrible at predictions to be honest i think it's going to be
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a very late night and then it's going to be close but i think ultimately i'll put it this way i think
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people vote uh based on their priorities and so far the main priorities that i've heard from ctf people
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are balanced budgets low taxes and fighting the carbon tax so i think it's going to tip that way
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chris you're a number expert more than i did yeah i am a numbers expert but i'm bad at predicting so i
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don't want to go out on a limb or jinx anything so we'll see i hope i'm wrong and it's way higher
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okay evan how about you yeah i uh i i'm pegging it at 50 um they it could be less could be more but
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i think 50 is a safe spot i you we mentioned janet brown's pull earlier she pegged it at 51.
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uh i do take that uh that read with a high level of credibility so yeah we'll wait and see i uh
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it uh elections come down to turnout and uh yeah if conservatives show up uh
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they can expect a good night on election night and i think 50 is a realistic number if folks show up
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and i know a lot of uh ucp candidates have been working hard on the doors i know they've got a
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lot of their folks out to vote already so um yeah i think 50 is uh my magic number great well i'm glad
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that i was able to get a straight answer out of at least one of you so there you guys have it evan
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menzies crestview strategies pegging it at 50. we will know on monday okay guys thank you so much for
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tuning in today i know that my audience has really appreciated your insight over the last
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four weeks i'm hoping that i will be able to catch some of you on monday night for a live hit
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for our audience we are doing a live show down in calgary at the ucp campaign event so you will
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definitely want to tune into that you won't want to miss it to hear everyone's wonderful insight thank
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you so much you guys have a great weekend okay guys and before i let you go i'm going to quickly do
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my weekly comment roundup you guys know that i appreciate your comments so much and there were so
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many under last week's episode so let's take a look at a few of those now brian sen said you guys
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rock the house and thanks for giving us hope thank you brian i'm sure we all really appreciate that
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compliment user glittle said the funniest and saddest thing i've seen in this election cycle is the fact
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that all ndp channels i've been on has the comments turned off so strong and concrete in their position
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that they can't take comments lmao it's sort of like how they won't take questions from reporters
00:23:46.400
they don't like there seems to be a theme here wild bill says rachel i don't think you know how
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much we albertans and westerners appreciate your presence and sincerity with your move west don't
00:23:58.480
worry you will fit right in and albertans will always show you hospitality keep on keeping on
00:24:03.760
thank you wild bill i've seen a bunch of your comments under my show and i appreciate that you
00:24:08.080
seem to be a weekly or at least somewhat regular listener and people here in alberta certainly have been
00:24:13.520
very friendly and finally user beau ottenbrait i apologize if i butchered the pronunciation of your
00:24:18.720
name said this video was a stroke fest it's hard to pretend the ucp message is anything like it should
00:24:24.240
be sure there are way better than the ndp but there are easily versions of the smith led ucp right now
00:24:30.000
that would be much much better when our number one issue should be securing rights and freedoms
00:24:34.400
a focus on mostly urban issue is really poor form when the number one push should be for economy
00:24:39.760
and quality of life the focus instead is on health care and education the playthings of the ndp both
00:24:45.440
horribly flawed systems i do have to say that i disagree the ucp has been focusing quite a bit on
00:24:51.280
jobs in the economy during the election i think they're hoping that that's going to be the ballot
00:24:55.600
box question i don't think that it is but most of their announcements have been about tax cuts for
00:25:00.480
the general population and about building a strong economy i do agree with you however that the focus
00:25:05.680
has mostly been urban issues i'm sure some of you in rural alberta are feeling a little bit left out
00:25:10.640
but i would say the ucp really needs to appeal to moderates in calgary to win this election and so i
00:25:15.680
think they're doing what they need to do to form government on monday whether you like that or not
00:25:21.840
you can have that opinion but i would say they are probably doing exactly what they need to do to
00:25:25.920
give them the best chance to win government okay guys that's all i have for you today a friendly
00:25:29.840
reminder as i mentioned on the panel you can watch our live show covering the election results
00:25:34.640
on monday night i will be joined by my colleagues andrew lawton and william mcbeth
00:25:40.080
so i'll see you guys on monday night enjoy the rest of your weekend and god bless