00:03:29.320I mean, to be honest, it's a straight up simple way to put it.
00:03:31.760And the fact is, you have to get these voters to vote early because they're very, very difficult to get out on Election Day.
00:03:38.820We saw Democrats do that with their side of it.
00:03:41.860But plus, I mean, the truth is they shouldn't really have had that many low propensity voters.
00:03:46.380There was just no real target out in the population for them.
00:03:50.280So where were they getting them from, folks?
00:03:52.140I mean, obviously, they were getting some of them from us.
00:03:54.800And then ours, what concerned me is that the low propensity vote on the right in 24 was an early vote.
00:04:02.200Yes, of course, we got some out on Election Day.
00:04:04.660But a big part of the low propensity vote was in the early vote.
00:04:08.100And we could see it clear as day in the last week of early voting.
00:04:11.360that didn't materialize so it left republicans with the bigger heavier lift of getting out to
00:04:17.300vote on election day and getting them to vote and in florida i'm seeing a lot of people saying look
00:04:22.080at the gangbuster republican turnout you got moderate turnout the best vote in in republican
00:04:28.280circles is in the morning i've been doing florida elections for a very long time this is when old
00:04:35.500folks vote and they are the most maga as the day goes on by like noon to two republicans have to
00:04:41.300bank as much as they can. Trump was almost R plus 14 at this point. You have to bank as much as you
00:04:47.380can because Democrats will later start to vote and it'll be a younger, less white vote, and they'll
00:04:53.020claw back a little bit of your advantage. We don't know how MPAs are breaking in Florida, so that
00:04:57.920really is the wild card. If they break 60 to 40, then Byron could be in trouble. If they break 55
00:05:03.980to 45, he'll leak it out like DeSantis did, maybe a little bit even more. We still have Byron up,
00:05:10.040But it's close and it really shouldn't be close. And it tells you, you know, what we can possibly expect from the rest of the country. And for people who think, again, because there's a lot of misinformation out there, you know, right now we're at an electorate that looks a little bit like R plus 74, R plus 75. I really wanted Byron at like R plus 11. Byron's own team wanted him at R plus 11.
00:05:31.880So this isn't the people's pundit talking.
00:07:17.220I know you're just going off hard facts for people as kind of a tactician scientist,
00:07:20.920but just as a citizen, an American, about what you expect to see, just gut level, and then what the aftermath is.
00:07:27.860look alex a couple of weeks ago i thought okay i feel like maybe republicans stem the bleeding
00:07:35.740it's a lot of money maga inc had you know yet elon musk throwing literally hundreds of millions
00:07:40.940of dollars in states like texas and elsewhere and i thought okay it feels like we blunted the
00:07:46.540democratic momentum but unfortunately when polls are close and you know sometimes some say something
00:07:53.740Some say the other. I mean, I think that the polls generally had a consensus this time and it was outside of the average era.
00:08:01.380You know, everyone wants to believe that polls were under again, understating Republican support.
00:08:06.500But there also was always the potential, the very real potential that polls were understating Democrat support.
00:08:13.080We saw it in twenty five and we saw it in twenty six and the off cycles in the special elections from Georgia to Pennsylvania to New Jersey to Virginia.
00:08:21.260So it was a real possibility. At the end there, it just looked to me, it felt, I'm just being real with everybody, it felt like it was slipping away again because Republicans needed a few things to happen.
00:08:34.760They needed the people who were frustrated and were disaffected and upset to see Democrats in such a bad light, a poor light, that they would ignore how angry they were with the president or with the party and just go out and vote anyway.
00:08:51.980You know, Barack Obama managed to come across this as well, and it didn't happen for him in the midterms.
00:08:56.520And we also needed to see independents pull a bit of a head fake.
00:09:00.700What we saw in 22 with Democrats, which was when Democrats looked like they were getting killed with independents.
00:09:06.340But then come Election Day, the exit polls, by the way, I'd caution people not to read too much into them when they come out.
00:09:11.900They shifted from R plus 11, and they were adjusted at the end of the night all the way to D plus 1.
00:09:17.620So exit polls can be a little bit flawed.
00:09:19.140But what happened there? Why did that happen? Because Republicans are the party of low prop voters. And what is working or what worked in favor of Democrats in 22, which is that they just have a more reliable coalition, what worked in their favor and helped them stem the bleeding is working against Republicans and making it more difficult to stem their bleeding.
00:09:39.080And you add disaffection to that. And, you know, people are reading in all these partisan numbers while we're inferring these are Republicans. Guys, I hate to tell you, we have no idea how the NPAs are breaking. And in an election like this, it's probably it's almost like those fundamentals are going against Republicans.
00:09:55.960And, you know, we went over this a couple of hours last night, Alex, about what are the fundamentals? What causes a wave election? Republicans have every single one of those indicators working against them this cycle. So it would truly be remarkable if they if they were to buck history and buck those fundamentals.
00:10:13.080And I always tell people it's not impossible. That's what I deal with probabilities. It's not likely, but it's not impossible. And if you're a fighter, fight till the end. But I think at the end of the day, we're going to be looking around the map. And because even if they outperform the bloodbath scenario, like the total tsunami scenario, losing by less is still losing. And the conversation after tonight needs to be, why did you put yourselves here? Why did you do this to yourselves?
00:10:40.560You had a coalition that could have governed for 30 years.
00:10:44.540The governorships are really important.
00:10:46.320The state legislatures are really important.
00:10:49.260In 28, we're going to go through redistricting all over again.
00:11:42.920Alex, you know, if you're mad at Iran, if you're mad at AIPAC and all of this and Republicans and the administration's association, well, I hate to break it to you.
00:12:03.320so the idea that the democrats aren't pro-war look at look at russia yeah and by the way i
00:12:10.200know you're telling the truth about this murphy was the only one who said it was insane and he
00:12:15.020had a stroke all right so that's where we're at ladies and gentlemen um that's it if you think
00:12:20.540you're electing democrats to put the adults back in the room or something or or you're punishing
00:12:25.500them i mean look i'm not i get where you're mad i get why you're disaffected i truly understand
00:12:31.400And by the way, you get criticized as an anti-Trump Qatari agent when you've just been giving him advice to win, just like Mark Mitchell that's coming up.
00:12:39.560Had they listened to us, Alex, they wouldn't be in this situation.
00:12:45.060Had they listened, we'd be coasting right now.
00:12:49.280They would have pushed South Carolina and Indiana to do it, too, because we would have bullied them under my plan.0.99
00:12:54.740And we'd be adding seats to the House right now or at least keeping it with an hour of majority.
00:12:59.840The Senate wouldn't even be a consideration, brother. It wouldn't even be a consideration. Why are these Senate seats in the plain states in the Midwest in jeopardy right now? Because they hate war. Because they hate war. Donald Trump won these states. Republicans can't win these states. He did it because he had an anti-war populist platform.
00:13:20.700And that is what Republicans needed to adopt in order to get away from the Mitt Romney curse and that map which required us to literally play a royal straight flush every single hand just to be able to win the electoral college.
00:13:35.080Donald Trump came along with a totally different message and said, you know what?
00:13:59.060I am seeing, which we haven't gotten to yet because I'm going to wait until the evening goes, election fraud, judges blocking illegals not being able to vote.
00:14:11.600I mean, it looks like the Democrats aren't even hiding it right now.
00:14:14.520So you add Republicans in trouble with baked-in fraud, they could take the Senate as well.
00:14:20.700Oh, Alex, I honestly think they're a favorite. Is it 90 percent? No. But I will tell the audience this who's listening. We expect them to take North Carolina. We expect them to take Georgia. If they take North Carolina, Georgia and Sherrod Brown wins Ohio, the odds that Democrats take the Senate skyrocket from about 65, 66 percent to over 90 percent because it tells us the demographics that we need to know about for the rest of the night.
00:14:47.680And let me just add real quick. And, you know, that Alaska thing is out of this world. It's out. It's outrageous. That's electioneering. And even if Mary Peltola wins, she's going to start her term with a stain of scandal all over her. It was a good article.
00:15:01.820But it goes to the nakedness to openly do it. It's like they don't. They don't care. Yeah, no, they really don't because they play chicken with the right all the time because they know the right is going to swerve.
00:15:16.240Alex, they know it. It's a game of chicken. And that's where the Democrats win is that Trump
00:15:21.800goes, well, Biden gave blanket pardons. I can now. So now Republicans will say, well, we'll just put
00:15:27.060people's of the same name on the ballot. It's like the bottom has fallen out. We keep wondering
00:15:31.880how bad will it get? It just gets worse. Yeah. The tit for tat is the wrong way to go. Accountability
00:15:37.560is the right way to go, Alex. You know, you don't do what they do. You hold them accountable and
00:15:41.860make them afraid to do it again that's how you do it this way you stabilize the system
00:15:46.100top democrats sitting there two weeks ago and going let's find somebody the same name as the
00:15:50.300incumbent who's five points ahead and let's run him to split the vote and they're like yeah let's
00:15:54.500do that like the the arrogance of that that is the it's like let's let's shoot at instagram
00:15:59.660while we rob a bang and say our names and social security numbers yeah but i guess what top blanche
00:16:05.460would top roger stone was on earlier yeah well yeah they're gonna come after us and they're
00:18:31.100The world is more dangerous, says Britain's defense secretary.
00:18:33.640The UK is sending jets to Saudi Arabia, telling families at home to stock up.
00:18:37.660A new doomsday plan called Fortress preps military bases to keep forces operational in the event of a major attack that cripples power grids and other critical infrastructure.
00:18:48.500It's a global war which knocks out power grids, cripple supply chains and cuts off military bases.
00:18:53.960Other allies, including the U.K., have been warning their populations to stockpile 90 days of food and water just in case.
00:19:02.180Every major military installation in the continental U.S. would be expected to operate independently for at least 90 days.
00:19:09.500The Pentagon is preparing every major U.S. military base to survive 90 days without outside support.
00:19:16.880No civilian power grid, no global supply chains, no outside fuel or water.
00:19:21.460Experts agree America's next major war could reach U.S. soil through cyber attacks, drones, and long-range weapons.
00:19:28.340That's a lot of messages about stocking up at home.
00:19:32.280So I don't know if it's next week or next month or next year,
00:19:34.540but when you have the Pentagon gearing up for this for the first time activating the COG systems,