00:00:00.000I think as the United States has now launched Operation Economic Outcast as of Monday, the 24th of August, the war is not over.
00:00:08.640The Operation Epic Fury ending in a memorandum to Congress to get the president through the loophole of the War Powers Resolution or the War Powers Act, then into the brief period of the escorting Operation Freedom or Project Freedom, excuse me.
00:00:28.460And then now going into an additional round of kinetic warfare that was more kinetic than it was in the beginning in terms of U.S. losses and in terms of munitions expended on all sides.
00:00:40.740And then now we went into a period of what is the other side going to do?
00:00:45.660And now we're going into another phase or another aspect of this war, economic warfare, but it's still part of the same kinetic hot war.
00:00:55.500The Department of War under Pete Hexeth is falling apart. The cabinet under Donald Trump is falling apart. So as much as anyone says that there's stress on the Iranian government, that's true. The United States is also under that same type of condition.
00:01:10.220The true strategy board game in checkers is Chinese checkers. And it's the reason it's called that. And that's what they play. Trump is still trying to figure out how to open up the little plastic discs in his Walmart Game Center checker game that you play on the airplane to keep a toddler from throwing a fit.
00:01:30.720And China is already in their advanced stage of Chinese checkers and they figured this out already. I can assure you that China, as soon as February 28 kicked off, China sat back with their popcorn and said, yep, this is going to end beautifully for us in terms of China.
00:01:49.160The war hasn't ended. Economic warfare can be just as devastating as Germany after World War I. If you look at that in terms of where we're going back to a kinetic war, we are. That is going to happen.
00:02:02.280The question is, or the debate, if you will, is will it be based on the United States going back to it as the initiator of reemergence of hot war because this is not working?
00:02:18.600Or will Iran strike knowing that dragging the U.S. back into a kinetic war is bad for Donald Trump politically?
00:02:28.000So if I'm Iran, I'm waiting. I'm waiting until right before the Israeli elections. I'm waiting
00:02:36.820until like the 25th of October. Right after Starbucks comes out with their pumpkin spice,
00:02:42.240I'm ready to go. To hit before the Israeli elections, it's a double take. You drag Israel
00:02:49.080and the United States back into Connecticut. It looks bad for Donald Trump. You wait until that
00:02:54.380point, the sweet spot. And I guarantee you any, any, and now any analyst or joint planner in the
00:03:01.180Pentagon worth their salt are looking at those two dates. Real time, uncensored, unstoppable,
00:03:09.920alexjoneslive.com. Take a stand, share the link.
00:03:19.620Back in the powerful fourth hour of the Alex Jones show. I'm your host, Rex Jones,
00:03:23.900joined by Colonel Anthony Aguilar, Green Beret and geopolitical expert, leading geopolitical
00:03:28.640expert, I should say. We're talking about Operation Economic Outcast, total isolation of the Iranian
00:03:34.720regime. That's what the Trump administration is claiming. I'll read you a brief description here,
00:03:39.080Anthony, and then I want to get your take on this. You prepared some information, some facts for us
00:03:42.380as well. This is what the Trump administration is saying. Today, the administration unleashed
00:03:47.700Operation Economic Outlast, an unprecedented campaign to sever every remaining economic
00:03:52.960lifeline sustaining the islamic republic of iran this is what they claim i don't agree after
00:03:58.320president trump and the overwhelming might of the u.s military dismantled come on iran's military
00:04:03.540capabilities and crippled its nuclear program america is entering the end game with the single
00:04:08.220greatest financial offensive ever mounted against an adversary anthony uh what's your take on all
00:04:13.280that uh well that press release is simply hyperbole and bluster if you consider the nuclear program
00:04:22.320If we obliterated it in Operation Midnight Hammer in June, and yet it was not obliterated, which was pretense to why this war started on February 28th, we have done nothing to minimize or reduce what capability that was.
00:04:37.460And if anything, in the realm of nuclear ambition, we've only empowered and emboldened Iran to want to pursue a nuclear capability in defense, like every other nation that has them doesn't get invaded by the United States.
00:04:53.340So when you consider that aspect, that's just a bold-faced lie.
00:04:56.840When you consider the crippling economic sanctions, that's an important part to discuss.
00:05:03.660it's deeper than just the nuance of what the press release says. It has a shell of truth in
00:05:11.640terms of surface deep. But as soon as you pick over the first layer of paint, it falls apart,
00:05:19.760that argument. So I think as the United States has now launched Operation Economic Outcast as
00:05:26.360of Monday, the 24th of August, the war is not over. The Operation Epic Fury ending in a memorandum
00:05:34.200to Congress to get the president through the loophole of the War Powers Resolution or the
00:05:38.340War Powers Act, then into the brief period of the escorting Operation Freedom or Project Freedom,
00:05:49.380excuse me, and then now going into an additional round of kinetic warfare that was more kinetic
00:05:55.100than it was in the beginning in terms of U.S. losses and in terms of munitions expended on all
00:06:01.220sides. And then now we went into a period of what is the other side going to do? And now we're going
00:06:08.300into another phase or another aspect of this war, economic warfare, but it's still part of the same
00:06:15.420kinetic hot war. So this war is not over. There is no end in sight. And I think Donald Trump is
00:06:23.020simply digging himself a deeper hole in attempting to end this war via sanctions alone. And I want
00:06:31.140to make a statement. I'll make this as a fact. Economic sanctions alone have never won an active
00:06:39.960ongoing kinetic war. And the reasons for that are that there's hard limits that sanctions cannot
00:06:46.660force a major power. And Iran is a major power. They are considered, even in the national mission
00:06:53.400strategy or military strategy of the United States, a near-peer threat. Adaptation. Nations
00:07:01.060that are targeted by sanctions adapt. And that really is the story of the day in terms of Iran.
00:07:07.160Yes. And then support systems. Large nations have other means of circumventing the impact
00:07:14.880of such sanctions. And I provided you something that I put together in looking at this problem
00:07:21.180set through the week. Yeah, I think really tells the story of this and that I think people can
00:07:27.040look at that and say, well, you know what? That does make some sense. And it's my analysis.
00:07:32.040It's not gospel, but I think it does make some sense in terms of numbers and history.
00:07:36.860Yes, absolutely. I'll go ahead and read some of that now. Overhead shot, please, crew. The past
00:07:40.800as prologue operation economic outcast sanctions and what this really is how i see it anthony i
00:07:46.320want to see what you say after i read this is more like we're doing gain-of-function research
00:07:50.120on a country to make it more dangerous and resistant to our attacks in 1979 president
00:07:55.120carter freezes 12 billion 55 billion today and iranian assets bans nearly all the imports
00:08:00.5801984 president reagan officially designates as iran as a state sponsor of terror more restrictions
00:08:06.1201995 President Clinton issues executive orders banning U.S. trade investment petroleum with Iran
00:08:11.2601996 also under Clinton U.S. Congress passes the Iran and Libya Sanctions Act
00:08:16.320penalizing non-U.S. companies that invest in Iran's energy sector
00:08:22.040George W. Bush and Obama presidency's nuclear compliance focused sanctions
00:08:26.9602012 President Obama's severe secondary sanctions
00:08:30.620Biden bragged about this actually I remember on foreign central banks and financial institutions
00:08:34.880trading with iran 2015 2018 obama and trump jcpoa lifted sanctions related to nuclear
00:08:40.880reimposed under trump that was the real preamble in my view 2019 2020 trump irgc designated a
00:08:47.580foreign terrorist threat group sanctions target iran shipping metal and petrochemicals and now
00:08:52.680the big 2025 2026 trump renewed reinforcement of sanctions operation economic outlet outcast
00:08:59.180digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, shipping. Your take.
00:09:04.480Yeah. So the reason I wanted to lay out the past is prologue to look at the last 47 years of
00:09:09.320sanctions. Some of them have been very harsh. Carter was Carter and Reagan were more harsh
00:09:15.120on Iran in terms of sanctions or actual limitations to power than Trump can dream of at this point
00:09:24.640because of the limitations of our own economy. So when you consider, and then of course, under
00:09:29.960Clinton, we had a president that brought the national debt back to zero. So we had a lot of
00:09:35.940money to play with. We don't have that money to play with as we sit at debt that we cannot pay
00:09:41.780and a future defense budget that we still haven't figured out how we're going to fund. So the reason
00:09:47.360I lay all that out is to show that each president, from Carter to Reagan to Clinton and Obama and
00:09:54.200Trump and back to Trump and to Biden, back to Trump, is that sanctions alone do not work in
00:10:01.960terms of compelling or in terms of gaining compliance. They are a tool. They are a tool
00:10:07.340of an instrument of national power. Diplomacy, information, the military, and the economy,
00:10:12.060it is a tool. But right now, to Donald Trump, the only thing he has is a hammer. Therefore,
00:10:18.800you're good okay so um the the only thing that that donald trump right now has is a hammer
00:10:27.220so therefore every problem looks like a nail and looking at those where we stand now
00:10:32.900the truth in these sanctions is that um if trump wants to punish iran he needs china
00:10:41.400He needs Xi Jinping to go with this in terms of these sanctions having any impact because what Iran has learned in this war since February is creating new inroads diplomatically.
00:11:01.540Iran has been considered to join the Mecca defense accord with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan.
00:11:08.860Iran will be a part of that alliance in the future.
00:11:11.400That I am confident. So when you look at this in terms of sanctions, the other piece that I laid out there that I think is important to see visually in terms of we just laid all this out, right, the last 47 years.
00:11:23.580Okay, so Iran currency, as it's weakened ahead of economic D-Day, or as Trump called it, economic D-Day.
00:11:36.320So from January into February, the currency was at an all-time high.
00:11:45.260And then throughout this conflict, there's been – it's kind of like the concept of dodgeball, right?
00:11:50.500dip, duck, dive. It's bouncing up and down, but you see that in the trend line going forward that
00:11:57.280though there's that decrease, there's those points where it bounces back, it bounces back.
00:12:01.560So in that time of July 17 to August 17, before declaration of D-Day, initiation of economic D-Day
00:12:08.640on Monday, it is going to have an immediate term impact on Iran. However, it will not lead to Iran
00:12:17.860capitulating or bringing anything different to the table than what the best offer was or the
00:12:25.140best opportunity in the April 14-point MOU. And if you read the comments that have come from
00:12:37.160Scott Besant on Monday when this launched, this is the United States position.
00:12:44.160Any nation who pays a toll to Iran for safe passage through the Strait of Khrmuz will face sanctions or other penalties.
00:12:52.400Okay, well, specifically now scoping that Strait of Khrmuz, well, because Oman and Iran have established this toll system,
00:13:04.160well, nations using the Strait of Khrmuz can pay the passage fee to Oman.
00:13:10.640And then in that agreement, Iran still gets their cut. So Scott Bessent was very careful about how he mentioned that, which is an acknowledgement that Iran still does control and now has further buy-in on the management, which is essentially control, of the Strait of Hormuz.
00:13:34.100And then what did, you know, I think it's interesting to look at what did Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi say in response to this coming?
00:13:43.180Because Trump signaled it over the weekend.
00:13:45.400He said, this is the Iranian deputy foreign minister.
00:13:50.280We remain in a state of war and the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed.
00:13:55.320Why must we, speaking, he's speaking as Iran, why must Iran always wait for an American attack?
00:14:02.880we can take action first we will see continued strikes iran will take the initiative in terms of
00:14:11.260preemptive and or often and that's because this is warfare that we're in a war right now and i've
00:14:18.320heard in a war i've heard professor pape talk about this at length very distinguished everyone's
00:14:22.700heard him talk about the escalation trap and what he said is there's two ways you do it with air
00:14:26.700power with bombing and with sanctions both of which don't work and they're going to see that
00:14:30.320as aggression. What is their response going to be? What do you predict from this?
00:14:35.680So so economically, I do predict that there will be hard times ahead for Iran. However,
00:14:42.920over the last 47 years, as we as I mentioned in the beginning, in terms of economic sanctions
00:14:47.960alone don't work is because Iran has adapted. Right. Over the course of this conflict,
00:14:54.140Iran has hyper-adapted in terms of learning from the 47 years of sanctions what they really need
00:15:03.720and what they can do without. It's kind of like when you're in hard times, you learn
00:15:08.120what matters in terms of what you really need. You don't need the Ferrari. You can walk to work
00:15:14.480if you need to, and you can put food on the table without that. They've learned those things.
00:15:19.480The United States still thinks that we can fight this war with Ferraris and an unlimited budget, which we cannot.
00:15:28.220The Department of War under Pete Hexeth is falling apart.
00:15:32.000The cabinet under Donald Trump is falling apart.
00:15:35.140So as much as anyone says that there's stress on the Iranian government, that's true.
00:15:39.600The United States is also under that same type of condition.
00:15:42.920now looking at you know i i think it's um it's it's kind of a humorous because i was thinking
00:15:49.580the same thing in that next uh uh slide to show in that the world bank in their estimate has
00:15:56.780titled their estimate in that they get knocked down meaning it on and the end to that is well
00:16:03.220they get back up right you know nine 1997 when i was entering my sophomore year of high school
00:16:08.840So Chumbawamba came out with a song called Tub Thumping, I Get Knocked Down and I Get
00:18:37.380I can assure you that China, as soon as February 28 kicked off,
00:18:42.520China sat back with their popcorn and said,
00:18:45.080yep, this is going to end beautifully for us in terms of China.
00:18:50.580So when you look at that and how that plays out,
00:18:53.920To your post, I agree. Well said. Yes, that when you focus on tactical aggression and completely dismiss strategy, or in this case, worse, the United States, when you think that tactical aggression is the strategy, then you're really in a predicament.
00:19:16.480Because what I see is that we have the midterm elections coming up, right? Netanyahu is facing a very critical election on October 27th. So October 27th, Israeli elections, November 3rd, US midterms, almost back to back.
00:19:34.800We have desperate men in power, Netanyahu and Trump, trying to figure out a way to make this look like it's going OK, or how to put it into eighth gear because they need a war to stay in power, certainly for Netanyahu, certainly for Trump to show the economy is not as bad as it looks.
00:19:57.400He wants to fool us all and say that it's not.
00:19:59.340So when you look at that in terms of what's at play, Eidon now controls the strategy because tactical aggression as a strategy petered out. We cannot maintain that as a strategy. Eidon, in terms of, okay, you want to play the who's going to hurt who economically? We've lived under sanctions for 47 years and we've sustained.
00:20:28.260It's a difference in tempo and you don't feel speed. You feel acceleration. And they're just existing in that 47 year state of really being prosecuted economically and through warfare under various time periods, especially now. We're not used to this. We're not built for this like a rich person fighting a homeless person. I'm going to bet on the homeless person every single time because they got a lot less to lose and a lot more reason to fight.
00:20:49.420In a way, when you have someone up against the wall, they either capitulate or they survive, and they just hold until the bell rings.
00:21:03.480That bell, Iran knows when that bell is going to ring.
00:21:06.440It's going to go ding, ding on October 27th, at least for Israel.
00:21:11.440And it's going to go ding, ding again on November 3rd in terms of how those elections play out.
00:21:36.200I think Trump released something today making fun of Bush.
00:21:38.500So when you look at that in terms of the power, actual applicable power, right now Iran has that upper hand. The United States is losing this war on all fronts, diplomatically, militarily, in the information space. That's a sure thing.
00:22:17.740Course of action one, we do nothing because Trump's not going to be able to break this gridlock before the midterms, and he's going to be desperate to do something.
00:22:29.460We hit back, he looks weak. Or we do something, we strike. Therefore, Trump can't let that go
00:22:40.800unanswered. That then brings us back into a very kinetic hot war. And the reason I think that the
00:22:47.240United States is preparing for that Iranian option is because over this past week, the Pentagon
00:22:55.320told the defense industry, you've got 21 days to come up with options to start producing more
00:23:02.660interceptors and missiles. You got 21 days. Make it happen. They're so desperate. So now you've
00:23:07.240got every mom and pop shop from Raytheon to Lockheed to Billy Bob's Missile Surplus
00:23:13.980getting government contracts. They're flying off the shelves. That is bad for the quality
00:23:21.960of a military at war. Wow. So we're getting ready to go back to the full kinetic conflict, war?
00:23:29.340It is coming. Whether Donald Trump realizes the desperation and strikes first
00:23:35.320to demonstrate a position of power, but then that also makes him look weak because his great
00:23:45.700economic D-Day didn't work. It's not going to work anyway. But Americans have a short memory.
00:23:53.540So when you look at that in terms of, will Donald Trump seek something to show that it's over,
00:23:59.120right? In his little treatise there in his economic D-Day, he talks about the nuclear
00:24:07.640piece. Well, that's not... If you're reading that and you're Iran, you're basically from
00:24:12.680across the half the world going nanny nanny boo boo right and russia and iran are now doing like
00:24:18.180i think it's like a 25 billion dollar deal to build civilian nuclear so that is all complete
00:24:23.560like cloud cuckoo land complete kabuki theater because he says oh uh and referencing what you
00:24:28.600said earlier oh uh w didn't do what needed to be done i'm the one that got it done i'm the one that
00:24:33.580invaded iran no it's not that w didn't do what needed to be done he's a horrible president in
00:24:38.040my opinion i think everyone's opinion now no one has been this stupid this callous and in service
00:24:43.260to israel this much to do this conflict you're saying we're going back to war full kinetic well
00:24:48.520again the the war hasn't ended sure economic warfare can be just as devastating as germany
00:24:54.440after world war one uh if you look at that in terms of uh where we're going back to a kinetic
00:25:00.420war. We are. That is going to happen. The question is, or the debate, if you will, is,
00:25:08.140will it be based on the United States going back to it as the initiator of reemergence of hot war
00:25:16.900because this is not working? Or will Iran strike knowing that dragging the U.S. back into a
00:25:25.860kinetic war is bad for Donald Trump politically. So if I'm Iran, I'm waiting. I'm waiting until
00:25:33.020right before the Israeli elections. I'm waiting till like the 25th of October.
00:25:39.760Right after Starbucks comes out with their pumpkin spice, I'm ready to go.
00:25:45.160To hit before the Israeli elections, it's a double take. You drag Israel and the United
00:25:50.340States back into kinetic. It looks bad for Donald Trump. You wait until that point.
00:25:55.860The sweet spot. And I guarantee you any any now, any analyst or joint planner in the Pentagon worth their salt are looking at those two dates.
00:26:06.580Powerful. Guaranteed. Powerful information. Thank you, Anthony Aguilar. Where do people find you?
00:26:12.900Well, you can find me on my congressional site. I'm sticking to my congressional site right now.
00:26:19.720I do maintain a site on TikTok so I can be a panelist for some of the more professional.
00:26:27.520But you'll be on Mario Newfall as well.
00:26:36.420Thank you so much for coming on the show.
00:26:37.920And I'll be on Mario later today, too.
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