00:03:52.34030% of the oil and gas, same thing, roughly 30% of the world's fertilizer,
00:03:57.940and something like half the world's helium,
00:04:00.280and hundreds of other special elements and special rare earth minerals
00:04:06.460that come out of that area and that are fed through that area,
00:04:10.000that are used in microchips, that are used in batteries, that are used in cars.
00:04:20.500I mean, Kirk Elliott was on before this war started and said this is the only thing that
00:04:23.360could derail Trump. And he said that a year ago, is Israel sucking us into a war?
00:04:29.840Foyntes said that three years ago, and it happened.
00:04:35.420And, you know, we were saying, oh, wow, this will really hurt Africa if you look at who gets
00:04:38.860most are fertilizers from there, but because everybody else then has to buy up what's there,
00:04:43.440you can pull the headlines up. Orders for fertilizer so far in the growing season this
00:04:48.880year have been cut by almost 50% in the U.S. Just type in fertilizer shortages U.S. Half of farmers
00:04:54.160not even ordering fertilizer because it's too expensive. You see, it's not just that you can't
00:05:00.000get it because it's not there. When there's a third less or more, then it jacks up prices.
00:05:06.260Then they got to ship fertilizer from further away places, and it gets delayed, and then you have inflation because of the oil and gas not being there for the ships, and it has an amplification, a magnification effect.
00:05:22.600So if anything, Kirk Elliott, a year ago, people marveled at the clubs, said, you know, this will cause a serious problem if it's just a few months, but if it's six months or longer, devastating.
00:05:33.540But when we said, you know, maybe shortages in Africa and the third world and new migrant flows, which they're now predicting to be huge, and the U.N. will help exacerbate that, this is worse than we thought.1.00
00:05:44.180So I like to say we're basically almost always right.0.57
00:05:47.060Well, I'm wrong a lot when it's that I'm right in general, but it's almost always worse than I said, because we try to mitigate.
00:05:56.460And so that kind of throws a blanket on what I really think.
00:05:59.420I need to just start saying what I really think.
00:06:01.600Because you cut off a third of all this stuff on average, it has devastating effects.
00:06:06.420Kirk Elliott is an amazing economist, also a degree theologian.
00:06:10.400He also has the largest, most successful gold and silver brokerage company in North America with the highest ratings.
00:06:15.240And he is our sponsor at KPM.com forward slash gold, where you can buy wholesale gold and silver delivered right to your door or to any of the depositories that you wish.
00:06:28.120You call up. There it is. There's nothing magic about it. It's so clear. It's so easy
00:06:33.220to understand. Anybody giving you an hour-long pitch about how they got the best deal on gold
00:06:36.960or silver is talking to you like you're an idiot, and something's going on. And so there's a pitch1.00
00:06:42.200right there. You can also roll over a lot of financial instruments and things like that.
00:06:45.800If I was going to get gold and silver anywhere, I'd get it from Dr. Kirk Elliott right now,
00:06:49.180kpm.com forward slash gold, or 720-605-3900, one of the smartest things you'd ever do.
00:06:55.120And now all the indicators are with what's happening in the economy, at least I'd say midterm, guaranteed long-term, gold and silver will only go up if any of the laws of finance and industry and business and the economy and industrial systems, that's the main driver, are there, particularly with silver.
00:07:12.360But I don't really have words to quantify how big this is that we're 131 days in.
00:07:19.440And then Trump said two days ago at NATO, he already played it twice in the last few days, I'm not going to play it again.
00:07:23.400And he said, it's over. We're never going to have a deal. Just total war. We'll just keep bombing them.
00:07:27.300Well, the Pentagon believes they'll hold on for years, probably, if forever.
00:07:31.860And so if the strait stays closed, they've got workarounds in the next year.
00:07:37.560They're trying to build those canals, build those pipelines.0.99
00:07:39.700But the Iranians can just hit those ships, which they've shown, or those pipelines.1.00
00:07:43.760So that's not a complete fix. So, Dr. Elliott, looking at this, Trump continues to get frustrated.
00:07:50.620He's been lashing out at Israel, giving him bad advice.
00:07:53.400but then J.D. Vance was against the war.
00:08:14.060Israel might kill him and then say Iran did it.0.93
00:08:16.280Those are very dangerous things for Trump to be saying.0.88
00:08:20.320We know after they tried to kill Trump and Butler,
00:08:22.060they floated that it was Iran. I predicted they would do that. So this is a Trump opening the0.97
00:08:27.340door up for a false flag. But as an economist looking at this, and then the other numbers
00:08:32.380coming in, I know you're optimistic the first month you said if it ends soon, we could still
00:08:37.360pull out of this economy. Then about 100 days in, you said, no, it's too late. It's going to cause
00:08:41.980a major recession, maybe depression. Now we're a month later. As you said, this compounds, it
00:08:46.460lenses. So let's speak about the war, no off ramp, pigheadedness on both sides, Israel driving ground0.95
00:08:53.560invasion, and then look at home house prices hit all time high as sales slow and mortgage rates0.54
00:08:59.220rise. Sounds like stagflation to me in the real estate market. And then all the other big
00:09:03.520developments that have happened. Dr. Kirk Elliott, thanks for being here. Oh, it's great to be with
00:09:07.620you, Alex. I mean, it is stagflation and this conflict, it's like, it's almost like a head
00:09:14.560fake right and basketball it's like you think it's over then it's not then you think it's over
00:09:19.320and then it's not and and this is the problem with with the economy right because everyone's
00:09:25.780looking at what's going to happen to the price of oil and if if the conflict ends the price of oil
00:09:32.860comes down gold and silver should go through the roof stock market should go through the roof
00:09:37.500cryptocurrency should go up a lot right but but now that it keeps lingering it's like is it going
00:09:43.620to end is it not going to end right and so there's all this turbulence and all this turmoil
00:09:47.540i mean even at the fed right so you look at what the fed you know basically their their minutes
00:09:54.500from june came out it's like well we're we're not going to raise rates right now but we're not going
00:10:01.680to lower them either why because they don't know either alex they don't know how long this thing
00:10:07.320is going to go on because it just keeps lingering right so so in the end it all boils down to
00:10:15.620supply and demand for me and with the price of commodities with the price of oil the world needs
00:10:21.780oil ultimately this will end or else prices continue to go up up up up up and we have major
00:10:28.240global stagflation the price of gold and silver will go up because this conflict ultimately will
00:10:35.300end but but in the meantime you've got this transitionary period where it's going to be up
00:10:40.420and down up and down up and down consolidating and people don't know what to do right but here's
00:10:44.680where when you look back um to kevin warsh's first speech when he kind of did a 180 on trump
00:10:53.080and said you know before that when trump was vetting for him he said yeah i'm gonna i'm gonna
00:10:57.740lower interest rates we're gonna stimulate the domestic economy this is great then three days
00:11:01.880after he came in now we're going to keep rates higher for longer then you know if you look at
00:11:06.720things like poly markets right these these predictive type algorithms you know they
00:11:13.440basically are saying you know oil is probably going to come down interest rates are going to
00:11:20.940come down you know so prior to things that were happening right which which last week
00:11:28.640no actually the last few days this this conflict igniting again polymarket said the chance of
00:11:37.540of interest rates going up were 68 percent the chance after you know this this peace deal was
00:11:45.740made and everything else was only 48 well now it's oil is exploding again right because people
00:11:51.600can't get this thing figured out and it's it's really problematic so so here's where i want to
00:11:57.760tell everybody i don't think this is going to end anytime soon whether the conflict ends or not
00:12:03.920it's there has been a shift in demand for oil for iran if the conflict ends tomorrow
00:12:11.360i think we we've got some changes that are happening because this war has been going on
00:12:17.720or conflict has been going on since february right so what's china been doing china is the
00:12:24.220number one exporter of, or actually they receive Iranian oil. They're the number one trading
00:12:29.900partner for Iranian oil. They're the number one purchaser of oil on the planet. So since this
00:12:36.640conflict in the Strait of Hormuz being shut down, what did China do? They did what any other business0.63
00:12:42.940owner would do and said, well, we better find another source for our supply because we're not
00:12:47.820getting it from there right so so they've gone so far as they're they're sharpened their strategic
00:12:55.620focus on and renewed momentum on on green energy right so maybe moving forward they're not going
00:13:02.480to buy as much oil at all so so here's where this conflict is giving us such competing news stories
00:13:09.620competing messaging that people don't know how to navigate through i'm going to try to help you
00:13:13.560navigate through it right because because when there's conflict the price of oil goes up we saw
00:13:19.180this three days ago the price of oil jumped up like six percent in a in a minute right when when
00:13:26.660we when iran decided well we're going to bomb some of these commercial ships and trump retaliates and
00:13:31.680bombs the living daylights out of everything that moves there for a bit well let me interrupt you
00:13:35.760Since you mentioned that, because I should announce this again, 170 airstrikes by the U.S., including the Bashir nuclear power plant, on fire, large parts of it, on fire, huge explosions.
00:13:51.300We can show people some footage of that.
00:13:52.920That's just an example of how this is escalating and escalating.
00:13:56.040What is that going to do to the markets here?
00:13:57.980You've got Pakistan saying if Israel ever nukes Iran, they'll nuke Israel.
00:18:15.760Last year and this year at the Davos Group, WF, they said the loss of confidence,
00:18:21.280the public doesn't trust the establishment.
00:18:23.920They try to act like alternative news is what has lied and lost confidence in the world.
00:18:29.380No, it's them and the people getting wise to it.
00:18:32.380But still, the establishment didn't stop lying.
00:18:34.460They doubled down at every level to where now no one believes anything.
00:18:39.200A lot of people think I'm a clone or something.
00:18:41.640I mean, you know, the other super extreme, because you have a general public, it's starting to wake up and a lot of people don't wake a long time.
00:18:49.540And so now they think the earth's flat.
00:18:54.680And so this is a this is a crisis in confidence because confidence in the currencies, confidence in the system, even if it has problems, is what makes civilization.
00:19:06.560And people say, well, you're a status.
00:19:08.000No, I'm not. The problem is every time you have a loss of confidence, things collapse, and within a few weeks you get warlords. Anarchy never even lasts that long, and it's hellish. So it's not that I'm even defending any of these systems, but these systems are what we've got. It's like a lifeboat. It's the best you've got.
00:19:23.720And really, when you look at all that's happening in the world, IQ is dropping, people not living as long, more and more people getting lazy, hard work people getting working harder, but finally breaking their backs.
00:19:34.860When you look at this at the end of a major cycle, the fourth turning, it's here.
00:19:40.820And so we're looking at major, major birth pains going into the new cycle.
00:19:45.800And you add to all of this high energy, low food output, which the U.N. pushed, which the globalists pushed to create a global crisis.
00:19:54.100But they thought they could pose as the saviors and bring in a world government through trust by cutting off resources.
00:21:04.300They have literally followed a pipe dream of Satan, the mad scientists have, and built
00:21:10.000their own gallows here. I know I'm ranting, but I mean, I cannot quantify for listeners
00:21:16.500all the data. There's so much. It's bad, folks. We are hurtling down a very dangerous road here,
00:21:23.080as you can see around you. And if people think this is bad now, if we don't change course very
00:21:27.740quickly, people are going to look back on 2026 as a time of heaven compared to what the world's
00:21:32.860going to look like. Well, so it's already there. So let's look at some job numbers, right? Because
00:21:39.980this is going to amplify how bad things actually are that are being hidden because you get dual
00:21:45.880messages you get messages from the government for example let's see let's use the job numbers that
00:21:51.160came out at the end of last week employers added 57 000 jobs they're going to put a positive spin
00:21:58.440on that it's like we added 57 000 jobs this is great okay this is a significant slowdown
00:22:06.260from the 172,000 jobs that were added in may right so but what was expected in june the expectation
00:22:14.900was 110,000 jobs added we only got 57,000 so it's like this isn't good but let me add to that picture
00:22:24.120because it's not as even it's even worse than that so what's happening in june and july in america
00:22:32.820the world cup it's big i mean so the estimates are 40 000 temporary jobs were created in june
00:22:43.180because of the world cup so those are temporary those aren't real jobs so if you'd minus those
00:22:50.840out of the 57 000 jobs they say that they created really only 17 000 were created because i don't
00:22:57.920count 40,000 temporary jobs as jobs. They're going to be done in a few weeks when the World Cup is
00:23:03.620over. Right. So so the job numbers are absolutely brutal. And this, you know, take it with a grain
00:23:11.200of salt. This is with Trump being a good business guy. Right. He's doing the best he can with what
00:23:17.560he inherited from Biden. Imagine how bad it would have been with a Biden-Harris administration.
00:23:22.920It would have been absolute bloodbath. And it's not good now. I'm not saying it's good. It's
00:23:27.160actually bad so let's look at the second set of numbers that came out last week the unemployment
00:23:32.680rate which a lot of times economists look at that because it's important it ticked down from 4.3
00:23:38.140percent to 4.2 percent it's kind of a nothing burger right so some people are saying oh this
00:23:43.660is good look at the unemployment rates ticking down it's like nothing but wages this is where
00:23:49.280you're going to get a positive spin from the government hourly average earnings grew 3.5
00:23:55.280percent annually in june pretty good right no it's not not when inflation's at four percent
00:24:02.000so there's this widening chasm that's making things even more unaffordable when inflation
00:24:09.400grew by four four percent and wages grew by three point five percent people are are actually getting
00:24:16.680behind the eight ball more and more every single month and we've gotten 70 percent of people hand
00:24:21.120to mouth in the numbers. So it was only 67 percent like a year ago. So here's the bottom
00:24:27.160line then. It's going to stay closed. The economy is going to get worse. The midterms
00:24:33.360are three and a half months away. We're going to see. I think the Republicans may lose the
00:24:39.220House and Senate. I agree. I think they could lose both because people vote with their wallets.
00:24:47.340Right. So here's where as an economist and you with what you do, it's usually easier to predict what's going to happen tomorrow than what's going to predict a couple of years from now.
00:24:58.180Right. Well, right now, I can say it's really hard to discern what is going to happen tomorrow.
00:25:06.480But it's easier for me to say, I think this is what's going to happen a couple of years from now, because you've got these competing elements happening right now of oil going up.
00:25:18.960But yet these job numbers are terrible.
00:25:21.640OPEC is increasing the supply of oil, which is going to cause oil to actually come down.
00:25:29.000So what is that going to mean for interest rates?
00:25:30.940What's that going to mean for Kevin Warsh?
00:25:32.820well what the fed said we're not going to do anything right now because we don't know what's
00:25:37.240going on but ultimately i think the domestic policy is going to outweigh the reality of
00:25:44.780yeah let's talk about because trump's saying there's 19 trillion has been invested well it
00:25:49.100isn't here yet let's talk about that when we come back for example on infowars one of his most famous0.94
00:25:53.860statements was saying that tap water is turning the frogs gay and will turn you gay too first off
00:25:58.120gay people are awesome i don't think that's a problem at all and secondly if you notice that
00:26:02.700At the end of that video, he advertises water filters.
00:27:38.260And a happy little straight frog that you look up at every morning reminding you that you're not poisoning yourself, your wife, your husband, your children.
00:27:46.560Secure yours now while supplies last at TheAlexShowStore.com.
00:27:51.940We're doing man's work here, fighting for the species as our forebears did.
00:32:06.360And I know with real economists have to put so much into it and also street smarts and understanding and going out and checking things themselves.
00:32:13.960That's why Mark Mitchell is the top pollster.
00:32:15.680He's been a CEO and headed up, you know, Fortune 500 companies.