The Anchormen Show with Matt Gaetz ｜ U.S. Supporting Israel： Robert Spencer & Dave Smith
Summary
Should the United States support Israel in taking out Iran's leadership? Guest: Robert Spencer, Director of Jihad Watch. Dave Smith, Host of the Part of the Problem Podcast. Dan Ball, host of the Zero Hedge Debates.
Transcript
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Now, it's time for the Anchorman Podcast with Matt Gaetz and Dan Ball.
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Good evening and welcome to the Anchorman Podcast powered by One America News. I'm Matt Gaetz,
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host of the Matt Gaetz Show. We're every weeknight, 9 Eastern, 6 Pacific, and today we're doing
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something a little bit different. We've partnered with Zero Hedge, a great website for their Zero
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Hedge Debates. Zero Hedge Debates brings smart folks together to challenge conventional wisdom
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and discuss the major policy questions of the day on digital platforms. Tonight, we ask this
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question. Should the U.S. support Israel in taking out Iran's leadership? Taking the affirmative in
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this debate is Robert Spencer, director of Jihad Watch. Taking the negative is Dave Smith, host of
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Part of the Problem podcast. I'm former Congressman Matt Gaetz. I'll be your moderator. The Zero Hedge
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Debates begin now. Each side is afforded a four-minute opening statement, and we begin with
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Robert Spencer. Thanks, Matt. You know, obviously nobody wants to go to war with Iran. The problem
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is, in all of these discussions that I'm seeing about this issue, nobody is actually talking about
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the fact that not just one side gets to decide whether the war will begin or not. And it may well
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be that Iran will attack the United States, and it won't be up to anyone whether we go in to fight
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Iran or not. At the same time, nobody is envisioning the kind of quagmire that we had in Iraq and
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Afghanistan. Nobody is talking about boots on the ground. There is talk about regime change,
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but that's become a very charged term. It doesn't necessarily mean some sort of wrongheaded,
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misguided, unfocused project to bring a political system to a people that doesn't want it or understand
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it. And so what we have in this situation is quite different. The president, as a matter of fact,
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just today said that he was talking to Tucker Carlson, and he said, are you okay with nuclear
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weapons being in the hands of Iran? And Trump went on to say, and he sort of didn't like that.
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And of course, nobody really likes that. And Trump said, if that's okay with you, you and I have a
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difference. It's not just Israel that has said that the Islamic Republic of Iran is working on nuclear
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weapons. This is something that has been abundantly established by investigations of the International
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Atomic Energy Agency, which is, of course, an arm of the UN, works closely with several UN agencies.
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And the UN is no friend of Israel. The UN, as a matter of fact, has a standing item. The UN Human Rights
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Council has item seven on its agenda every time it meets to condemn alleged human rights abuses of
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Israel. So the IAEA, working closely with the UN, is not likely to exaggerate an Iranian nuclear threat.
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But the IAEA says that the Iranians are enriching uranium at a rate that is far beyond peaceful
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purposes, and that this is indeed an imminent threat. And so I hope that the president doesn't have to strike in
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Iran. I hope that it doesn't come to that. He's still talking today about bringing Iranians to Washington to
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talk with him at the White House. And he's the great dealmaker. Maybe he can do it again. At the same time, it may
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become, unfortunately, necessary for the real peace of the world to strike Iran's nuclear program in
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tandem with Israel, and to take it out so that this regime cannot endanger the life of the world as it
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has thus far in numerous ways. Now, this doesn't necessarily mean regime change. But if it did come
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about, the first people who would welcome it would be the Iranians themselves, who have made it
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abundantly clear that they hate this regime. In Afghanistan, they love the Taliban. In Iraq,
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they couldn't wait to establish Sharia. In Iran, it's different. Thank you. Thank you very much,
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Mr. Spencer. Dave Smith, take it away. I just, I'm honestly almost just in disbelief, almost over this
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entire debate. I can't even believe that we're here in 2025, after just electing Donald Trump,
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winning every swing state and the popular vote, that we're actually having 2003 all over again,
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and with all of the same characteristics, just blatant lies, complete misrepresentation of the
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evidence, a bunch of different fabricated justifications for the war that aren't even
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coherent. The truth is that the many people, no one wants war with Iran are the first words we
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hear. No one wants war with Iran. You sure about that? Iran has been on America's list of countries
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to overthrow since at least 2001. We have a four-star general on the record who told us that he saw these
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plans. George W. Bush put Iran on the axis of evil after 9-11, even though they had absolutely nothing
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going to do with 9-11, he then invaded the two countries that touch it and destroyed the two
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countries. And you're going to sit here and say no one desires war in Iran? If anybody who knows
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anything about D.C. knows that there are very powerful forces, not a single honest Trumper,
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MAGA person in America would say that there aren't powerful forces that have wanted war with Iran for
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years. And the fact of the matter is that Iran does not have nuclear weapons. The director of
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National Intelligence released her annual threat assessment two months ago. She reaffirmed it very
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recently. There's just no evidence of it. And even as you quote the IAE, they came out and said
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that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons. They have a latent nuclear deterrent. It was in no way
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something that justified a first strike from Israel. And the idea that this regime change is going to be
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different, well, why does it feel so similar already? It's based on a lie of a nuclear threat.
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We're talking about liberating the people. I mean, I guess maybe one of the differences I spot,
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Matt, I bet you would find this kind of funny, but the Israelis are posting pictures with the son of
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the Shah. So I guess we're making the world safe for monarchy now. I guess we're in the business of
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spreading monarchy to the Middle East. Well, I don't see any indication that that's going to work out
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any better than spreading democracy worked. And either way, it's not America's business. We have to
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appreciate, look, as you even mentioned there in your opening, it's like you lay out the argument.
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Now we don't know what's going to happen. Look, America, the Israelis will sit here and say that
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Iran attacked them on October 7th because it was their proxy that came and attacked them. Well,
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by that same logic, is Israel not our proxy? I mean, that's exactly the relationship, but we
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certainly fund and arm them. We're giving them intelligence cover. Evidently, Trump was negotiating
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to distract them from this attack coming in. And yet we don't know now. We have, at least as of
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2007, the Pentagon told George W. Bush that we do not have escalation dominance in a war with Iran,
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meaning they can hit so many of our bases and our embassies in the region. It's a huge risk. And
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what's going to happen then? You know, it's easy. They all start off, oh, there won't be troops on the
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ground. It won't be one of the bad regime changes. It'll be a good one. What happens when a few
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Americans get killed in this? You think Donald Trump's going to take that and not start bombing
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the hell out of this country? This is so incredibly risky. And just to be clear here, and I'll end on
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this, I just can't overstate this. When I say this is so incredibly risky, what we're risking is the
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United States of America. And I don't just mean like because Iran could beat us in a conflict,
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but honestly, ask yourself, let's say you're wrong. You know, I don't know where you stood on
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all these last regime change wars, but I know that almost everybody who's trying to sell this
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one was catastrophically wrong about all the last ones. What's the chance you're wrong here?
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And when I say you're wrong, I mean that regime change doesn't work out well,
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that actually it becomes a disaster, that actually, even though the people didn't like the government,
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I don't know, this radical government that has ruled since 1979, with all of the most powerful
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governments. Okay, I'll wrap up real quick. With all of the most powerful governments in the world
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trying to overthrow them, they've still hung on. Who's to say that another radical group doesn't go
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out there. And we're not in the position we were in 2003. We're $37 trillion in debt. Our country is
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completely divided in a way we haven't been before. Donald Trump needs all the political
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capital he can right now to get his immigration issues through, and that's all.
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Okay, so Mr. Spencer, I want to pin you down on precisely the position you're taking here.
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Do you believe that there is a basis right now? In your opening statement, you made a lot of
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the characterizations about what could happen and predictions about potential developments
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in the conflict. But right now, do you believe the United States should support Israel in taking
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out Iran's leadership? And can you give me just a quick answer to that question?
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Well, it depends on what you mean by support. You know, in World War II, Franklin Roosevelt did not
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get the United States involved in the war until after Pearl Harbor. But he did everything he could
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to help the British before that. There was the Lend-Lease program. There was the propaganda war.
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There were all kinds of ways in which he was aiding the side of freedom against the Nazis before
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Pearl Harbor. But he didn't get involved until Pearl Harbor. I think that's a perfectly...
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So is that where you think the U.S. should be today? I just want to understand that for clarity,
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the sake of your position, are you saying we should be in a Lend-Lease, provide weapons to Israel,
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or do you believe the United States should directly be involved in striking assets in Iran?
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Exactly what I'm saying. Okay. The idea that this is some sort of betrayal of MAGA,
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as Dave was suggesting, is ignorant of the fact that Trump, in his escalator speech,
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his first political speech announcing he was going to run for president in 2015, he says,
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I'm not going to allow Iran to get nuclear weapons. Now, I don't know what people thought he meant by
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that. He reiterated that many times over the years, and now he's saying the same thing. And you've got a
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regime that actually has ordered its people every Friday in the mosques all over Iran, they have to
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chant death to America as well as death to Israel. And it's important to note, this is not just
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braggadocio or sloganeering. The Ayatollah Khamenei actually said not long ago that the situation
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between America and Iran is this. This is November 1st, 2023. When you chant death to America, it's not
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just a slogan, it's a policy. And it's a longstanding policy, in fact, because it goes back to 1979,
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to the seizure of the embassy, the taking of the hostages, the taking of the CIA agent,
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William F. Buckley, not the National Review guy, another one, who was-
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Yeah, well, you probably got a point there. But in any case, he was brutally tortured and murdered by
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the Iranian regime in the 80s. Hezbollah is a wholly owned and operated subsidiary of the Islamic
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Republic of Iran created by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. 1983, they killed 241
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Marines in the barracks in Beirut. You've got just a couple of years ago, Tom Cotton asked Defense
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Secretary Lloyd Austin, has Iran attacked any American interests, American bases in the last couple of
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years. And if so, how many times? And Austin says, 83 times. And Cotton says, okay, how many times did the
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U.S. respond? And he said four. So that's 79 unanswered attacks from a power that is chanting death to
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America, saying it's a policy, not just a slogan. And that projects weakness. If you just let that keep
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happening and never respond, then you are exactly the same thing that Dave is saying is going to
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happen, but not in the way he envisions. You're going to lose the United States.
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We're going to lose the United States. You're telling me that militarily Iran is going to take
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out the United States of America? The idea is so preposterous. This is a country that does not
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have an air force capable of delivering weapons to us. We're the most powerful country in the
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history of the world. And this is a puny third world country, although compared to the other
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puny third world countries we've been picking on, they're much, much tougher. But just think about
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this, man. Everybody, the war fever and the drums are beating. Let calmer heads prevail for a second.
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I just told you that after 9-11, the war, the war hungry George W. Bush put Iran on the list of axis of evil
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and then invaded and destroyed their two next door neighboring countries. And your response was the kids
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yell some chance. Therefore, they're threatening us. I mean, let's get real here.
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Well, I want to talk about that threat real quick, Dave Smith, because we saw the house chairman of the
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Foreign Affairs Committee say in an interview recently that however we confront Iran today,
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it is at least confronting an Iran without a nuclear weapon. And as messy and as bad as all
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those rough outcomes you described, the argument just that I'm presenting to you is, well, we eventually
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have to confront Iran. So better to do it now than later. Your response, and then we'll go to Mr. Spencer.
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It's just absolutely ridiculous. And like I said, all of the intelligence indicates that they're not
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trying to get a nuclear weapon anyway. So this is all like, it's all just begging the question.
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It's like, you have to, you have to like demonstrate that they are actually attempting
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to get a nuclear weapon before you can just make that call. But you know, as, as the great Scott
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Horton said the other day, um, you know, uh, um, Truman did not start a war with the Soviets because
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they were developing a nuke and Johnson didn't start a war with the Chinese communists because they
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were developing a nuke. And this idea that therefore it's okay to just launch a war of
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aggression because somebody else is developing a nuke. And the wildest thing about it, Matt,
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as you know, as everybody listening, I imagine knows there is one country in the middle East
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who has secretly developed nuclear weapons and is not a member of the non-proliferation treaty.
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And that's Israel. I mean, the nerve of them to launch a war on these grounds,
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Iran is in the non-proliferation treaty and is not developing nuclear weapons and doesn't have
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nuclear weapons. Israel does and lies to the world about it. And this is their justification
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for, for launching a war that they want to drag America into. I mean, wake up people.
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Robert, is it hypocritical for Israel to try to draw America into a war over a secret nuclear
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weapons program when Israel has a secret nuclear weapons program?
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No, it certainly isn't. But the, we got to cover some other issues here, Dave, you know,
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you're setting up some very big straw men when I list the several, but not all of the attacks by
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the Islamic Republic of Iran on the United States. And you respond by saying, and you say, because
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some kids did something that we should nuke, we should attack them.
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Well, no, no, I will actually, I actually, I want to get Dave's answer to that because that was an
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argument. Here's how the argument is often presented. When has, when has appeasement ever
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worked at deterring Iran? Robert laid out a series of aggressive actions from Iran. They're all
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accurate, by the way. So, so when has appeasement ever made them, them more conciliatory? Because
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we've tried appeasement a few times and we, those events have occurred nonetheless.
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Well, yeah, but what events are we even talking about here? Like I'd highly encourage people to go
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through and read Enough Already by Scott Horton, where he goes through in details with all the sources
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and footnotes there. You can look through them for yourself as I have, that so many of the
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accusations of Iran developing those roadside bombs during the insurgency in Iraq were complete
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nonsense. They were lies, just like all the other lies. What about the launches on our bases that
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Robert mentioned? The launch, what specific attack are you talking about? In Northern Iraq. We had,
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we had American con, we had an American contractor killed without Americans wounded severely because
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right, right, right. So when, so again, though, it's like you frame this as attacking the United States
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of America, when in reality, what you're talking about is the United States of America illegally,
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aggressively invading their neighboring country, handing half the country to them and their
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influence. Huh? I mean, Iran also invaded Iraq, so they can't exactly get it. No, they're the last
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people to get it. No, Saddam Hussein, Saddam Hussein started that war and the U.S. backed him.
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Yeah, no, it was, I mean, look, that was a war of great tragedy. I guess I'll allow Robert to get in
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here. And, you know, Robert, is there a point you want to make about, you know, these, of these events
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of being insufficiently linked to the decisions of the, of the Iranian regime?
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I'm not sure I understand the question. What do you mean these events being insufficiently?
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Well, you list out all these things that you say Iran was involved in. We know that, that a lot of
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those were carried out through Iranian proxy forces. I think the point Dave is making is that-
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Proxy forces? No, see, but this is the thing, Matt. They say, if any Shiite with a rifle shoots
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anyone, that counts as someone that, that Iran attacked America. And it's just nonsense. We don't
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hold this standard. We don't hold this standard with anybody else. We don't say that, like, if
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America sold weapons to some group, that then they are our proxy now. And if they attack someone
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else with those weapons, that's America attacking them. Yes, we invaded Iraq and we
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overthrew the government, which was the minority of the country, right? There was a Sunni minority
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with a Shiite majority. We overthrew the government and forced democracy on them. And then a civil
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war broke out. And yes, the Shiites with guns were shooting at our guys. Robert, your response?
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This is not a matter of some Shiite with a rifle and we say, oh, it's an Iranian proxy. Hamas is a
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Sunni group, as a matter of fact, but it's funded. 93% of its funding, $350 million, comes from the
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Islamic Republic of Iran. Hezbollah was created by the Islamic Republic of Iran. For more than 20 years,
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Bashar al-Assad was a client who depended upon the Shiite clergy in Iran to certify that the Alawites
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were bona fide Muslims so that he could stay in power in Syria. He was totally beholden as a result
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to the Iranian regime. He was a client of the Iranian regime. And, you know, you also say, well,
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the IEAA said that they're not getting nuclear weapons. As a matter of fact, in a May 31st,
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2025 report, which is what? Almost three weeks ago. Oh, this must be outdated. Iran has significantly
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increased production and accumulation of highly enriched uranium, the only non-nuclear weapon
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state to produce such nuclear material. This is a matter of serious concern. And the IAEA also said
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that they've accumulated 881 pounds of uranium, enriched to 60%, which far exceeds what is needed
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for civilian energy production and is close to weapons-grade material. So you've got-
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Yeah, I know. Now read the conclusion. Now read the conclusion of the latest report. Read it.
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Read the whole thing. You want to read it right now, on the air? Let's read the conclusion.
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Oh, the conclusion takes back that they're enriching uranium at 60%? Come on.
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No, no, no. See, this is how they're selling this lie, Matt. Yes, nobody's arguing that they're
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enriching at 60%. They've gone up to the level of having a latent nuclear deterrent. They are not
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the first country who's ever done this. And yes, that is true. It is higher than what they need
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for their civilian energy need. It's not aggressive. Hold on. Do you believe,
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Dave, do you believe that enrichment to that degree ought to be deterred or allowed?
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Listen, I think, again, these questions are, I don't like the spread of nuclear weapons at all.
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And I don't, sure, should they be deterred? I think there would be a great way to deter them
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by making a deal. I think that would be very possible. I think the Iranians have demonstrated
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that they want to make a deal. Donald Trump seemed to be signaling he wanted to make a deal. It's
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kind of unclear now what his true intent was. But then they threw in the idea that you have to get
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rid of all your centrifuges and all your uranium. And then the Iranians weren't going to go along
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with that. And so, yeah, I think a reasonable deal could be struck here where Iran doesn't get
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nuclear weapons. But even if they had them, that doesn't mean we should launch a regime change war
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there now. This is just madness. There's no concrete plan. You have no plan for who the new leader is
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going to be. You have no plan how to avoid it. We're going to get to that. We're going to get
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to that. But I want to stay on the on the nuclear development real quick. Robert, Robert, you said
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in your opening statement, I wrote down the words precisely, that Iran was working on nuclear weapons.
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And that struck me as a broad statement. So I want to pin this down. How close does a country have to
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be a hostile country to nuclear weapons and their ambitions or their hopes or their works to justify a
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regime change war? Well, look, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, president of Iran from 1989 to 1997,
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December 2001, he says that if a day comes when the world of Islam is duly equipped with the arms that
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Israel has in possession, which, of course, he was referring to a nuke, then the application of an
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atomic bomb would not leave anything in Israel. But the same thing would just produce damages in the
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Muslim world. So Rafsanjani was saying, we can destroy Israel completely, and retaliatory fire
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would only harm us to a certain extent, but not completely. So he was obviously thinking about
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an aggressive war of destruction of Israel. As Khamenei said on May 17th, a month ago,
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the Zionist regime, which is the dangerous and lethal cancerous tumor of this region,
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must undoubtedly be removed, and it will be. This cancerous tumor language is a recurring theme
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in Iranian rhetoric. It goes back to Khamenei. So is that rhetoric sufficient? Are you taking
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the position in this debate that one's rhetoric can rise to a point around destruction and nuclear
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annihilation to justify a regime change war? Or do there have to be other actions that bring you there?
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There have to be other actions, and there are. We have the enrichment of uranium beyond the need for,
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but beyond what is needed for civilian purposes. So you already have that.
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So is that it? Is that the answer? Once a country starts enriching uranium beyond civilian purposes,
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if they're a hostile country, that justifies regime change?
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Well, Matt, you didn't get my whole statement, because I didn't say we should go in.
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We should enable Israel in any way that they need. And if a regime change happens,
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we should support it. The crown prince, this is a very different situation from Iraq and Afghanistan.
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In Afghanistan, it was a total mess from the beginning. It was wrongly conceived,
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wrongly executed, wrongly concluded. I wrote a book about it, Who Lost Afghanistan? In Iran,
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it's a very different situation, because you've got people who remember growing up
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in a secular Western-style republic. They remember life outside an Islamic regime.
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I was 17 when the Islamic revolution happened. There are plenty of people who are my age in Iran
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and who have told their kids about what life was like before the Islamic revolution.
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And these people have a leader. The crown prince is ready. He has offered to come in
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and be a caretaker, ruler, and establish a constitutional republic, or whatever the Iranian
00:24:20.820
people decide. There was nobody like that in Iran. What do you think the odds are of a
00:24:24.800
constitutional republic emerging in Iran? Do you think they're better than 50 percent,
00:24:29.140
Robert? What was that? Yeah, and I'll go to Dave with the same question. We're going to ask
00:24:33.340
this question. What do you think the percentage chances that a constitutional republic emerges out of
00:24:38.020
regime change in Iran? Give a number percentage to that, Robert. Probably 30 or 40. I want Dave's
00:24:45.040
response, too. You laid out the argument. Dave Smith got just the opposite situation from Saddam Hussein
00:24:50.720
and the toppling of Saddam, because Saddam was already a secular ruler. And there were a lot of
00:24:56.640
people who thought he is not legitimate because he doesn't rule by Islamic law. And when he was toppled,
00:25:02.480
then they saw their chance, and they established ISIS and implemented Islamic law in the Sunni regions.
00:25:09.160
And in Iran, it's just the opposite. Did you know that there was a survey a couple years ago
00:25:14.780
of the Iranian people who were supposed to be 99 percent... Yeah, okay. We're going to get...
00:25:19.000
Hold on. We're going to get to where the Iranian people are in a moment.
00:25:21.500
Only 40... Hold on. But before we get to the Iranian people, I want to get to this notion of what the
00:25:27.940
government looks like. You've presented this concept that there is a crown prince ready to come in and
00:25:33.320
rule the country, and you say 30, 40 percent that would go well. Dave Smith, I'm guessing you don't
00:25:38.360
agree. Yeah. I mean, look, let me just say, I just want to respond to a couple of things there,
00:25:43.600
and then I will answer that, whatever percentage I would give it. First of all, again, just going to
00:25:49.240
this, like, the idea that you're even going to say the chants or the rhetoric... I mean,
00:25:54.460
how many American politicians have said, like, the craziest things, including John McCain and
00:26:01.080
Hillary Clinton talking about wiping Iran off the face of the map herself, right? I forget her exact
00:26:06.500
words, but it was something like that. John McCain constantly saying it. Donald Trump in tweets and
00:26:11.460
in all types of bravado talk has made all types of comments about violence like you've never seen
00:26:16.360
before, but nobody takes that as a serious policy. Like, we really just... You know what I'm saying?
00:26:21.640
Like, nobody takes that as a serious policy until the other night when he tweeted for everyone to
00:26:25.620
evacuate Tehran. Now, that's, like, a real type threat, but for us to even be talking about,
00:26:30.700
like, they holler this or they chant that is just completely beside the point. Again, this is
00:26:35.320
weapons of mass destruction all over again. All the intelligence says they don't have a bomb.
00:26:40.100
Our own CIA said that since 2007, they've made the political decision not to acquire a bomb.
00:26:46.700
We just got that reaffirmed with more intelligence last week. There was another report that said the
00:26:52.220
same thing. So that's number one. After this, look, I'll concede this. I don't know, by the way,
00:26:57.860
exactly what the percentage would be. I tend... My gut instinct is it's much, much lower than that,
00:27:02.740
and I do find it to be such an unbelievable insult. I just can't even believe we're having this debate
00:27:07.420
that we start the terror war to get al-Qaeda, and then it turns into spread democracy. And at this point
00:27:13.740
in it, Matt, 25 years later, you understand, we got to support the al-Qaeda guy who just took over
00:27:18.760
Syria, and now we got to spread monarchy to Iran. It's just such an insult to the intelligence of
00:27:24.380
the American people. But I will say this. I'll grant you... I'll maybe meet you in the middle here,
00:27:29.060
and I think maybe we could have some agreement on this area. I will grant you that perhaps it is true
00:27:34.720
what you're saying, and some of the other hawks say as well, that Iran is a better candidate
00:27:38.360
for regime change. Perhaps the odds are a little higher that it would work out than it would in
00:27:43.760
Iraq. I'd probably put the odds at like, say, 1% in Iraq and like 5% here, but whatever. Let's say
00:27:49.700
the odds are higher. The flip side to that is that Iran is also tougher. This is a country three times
00:27:55.480
the size of Iraq. This is a government who has maintained power and much more tight control over
00:28:00.140
their country. They're a bigger economy. They have a much more sophisticated military. They have an
00:28:04.960
ability... Look, even what we've just seen in Israel already. See, we're used to picking on real puny
00:28:09.160
third world countries, so we're not used to this. But they just hit Israel back and killed some people
00:28:13.100
there. Now, I don't know how much they have in the tank, but they certainly at least have a little
00:28:17.520
bit more than this, and they can touch perhaps us or Israel. And then the other thing is the terrain
00:28:22.960
there is much harder to fight on. And then the other thing is that if your percentage doesn't work
00:28:27.620
out and one of these maniacs seizes control of the government, and it's a much worse situation than
00:28:32.380
that, you've got to consider the potential that we're getting dragged into something catastrophic
00:28:36.640
here that's going to cost another $2 trillion and get another 500,000 people killed. And so,
00:28:41.860
I don't know. Do you guys, after the last 25 years, not have any sense of concern about this,
00:28:46.840
of taking this risk right now? Well, let me posit the argument, Dave.
00:28:50.200
You made it a 40% chance. Yeah, hold on, hold on, Dave. Dave, I want to push back on this because
00:28:55.400
I've heard this argument as well. Well, us striking Iran doesn't really bring us to that level of
00:29:02.340
entanglement and involvement that mirrors Iraq or Afghanistan or even Libya. This can be more akin
00:29:08.820
to the Soleimani strike. A lot of the people I like and listen to, like Rand Paul, were critical
00:29:14.880
of the Soleimani strike, but it didn't drag us into extended conflict with Iran. It reset deterrence and
00:29:21.580
everyone rolled on their way for a few years. Do you think, Dave Smith, that there's any validity to
00:29:26.980
the argument that this can be a kind of one and done, go strike some nuclear facilities, fly home, and then
00:29:36.360
Well, I certainly hope so. And I certainly hope Donald Trump, President Trump, comes to his senses
00:29:41.060
and, you know what I mean, pulls back from this. I think that hopefully at this point he still could do that.
00:29:47.640
I don't see any signal that that is the case. And I think that we should be honest with ourselves and
00:29:52.260
make no mistake about this, that this is a regime change war already, and that that has been Israel's
00:29:57.840
goal here the entire time. They've admitted it in their own words over and over and over again.
00:30:03.340
Netanyahu has testified before Congress and urged us to go overthrow the government in Iran. This is
00:30:08.880
their goal. They know that they don't have nuclear weapons. This is all the culmination of the clean
00:30:14.000
break strategy. General Wesley Clark told us there were seven countries they wanted to take out, and
00:30:18.720
this is the seventh one. They're going in to take this country out. Like, I don't know how anybody can
00:30:23.260
even argue with this at this point. And so that's why the argument here is, what are we getting
00:30:28.000
ourselves into? And how risky is another regime change war for a country that poses absolutely no
00:30:33.120
threat to us? This is a country that, again, there is no need for us to do this. This is a complete and
00:30:39.100
obvious war of aggression by Israel with American assistance and a war of choice. We simply don't
00:30:45.320
have to. Look, Benjamin Netanyahu has been telling me since I was seven years old that Iran is one to
00:30:52.020
three years away. Hey, guys, do you think he got it wrong when he said that for the last 30 plus years?
00:30:58.660
Or was he lying? Or was he lying so that America would go overthrow the government he wants overthrown?
00:31:05.340
I think we have some of that. I'd like to I'd like to get Robert's response to some of those claims by
00:31:11.120
by the current prime minister who had been in and out of Israel's government for quite some time. Let's go
00:31:16.560
ahead and play that clip. If not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time. It could
00:31:23.180
be a year. It could be within a few months. They have the wherewithal, the stored up preserved knowledge
00:31:30.480
to make a bomb very quickly if they wanted to do it. Iran is so dangerous. Weeks away from having the
00:31:37.680
fissile material for an entire arsenal of nuclear bombs. They're very close. They're six months away
00:31:43.960
from being about 90 percent of having the rich uranium for an atom bomb. Iran is gearing up to have to
00:31:49.880
produce 25 bombs, atomic bombs a year, 250 bombs in a decade. Ladies and gentlemen, time is running out.
00:31:58.200
Iran will be capable of producing alone without importing anything nuclear bombs within three to
00:32:04.440
five years. You're joining us in the zero hedge debates. We're here with Robert Spencer, director
00:32:09.520
of Jihad Watch and Dave Smith, host of Part of the Problem. So the question to you, Robert, does the
00:32:14.340
prime minister have any credibility? Yeah, absolutely. Because the fact is that it's not just either he's
00:32:21.120
right and obviously he was wrong or he's lying. There's a third choice. And the third choice revolves around
00:32:27.360
the fact that there have been numerous strange, mysterious accidents that befell Iranian nuclear
00:32:32.260
scientists, computer foul-ups in Iranian nuclear facilities. A lot of this has been blamed on Mossad.
00:32:39.880
Mossad, of course, has not taken any explicit credit for it. But it is altogether possible that the Iranian
00:32:47.840
nuclear adventure has been stymied at several points by the Israelis, and that is why the
00:33:00.320
I'm sorry. Instead of a regime-change war, why don't we just keep doing those things? Those sound great.
00:33:05.140
That would be great. If it can be handled that way, then I'm all for it.
00:33:21.740
...we have to send American troops to Iran, because that is not what I'm arguing, and that is not...
00:33:31.660
Yeah, I want to clarify your argument, Robert. You're saying that you're not advocating the
00:33:35.720
position that we ought to deploy troops to the streets of Tehran today, but are you sensitive
00:33:40.640
to the argument that our involvement in Syria, where a lot of Americans were mangled, killed,
00:33:48.220
that that began with 40 military advisors? Do you worry about America's history of slow walking
00:33:57.780
Yeah, except for one thing, and that is that Trump is aware of this. Trump, for all the rhetoric
00:34:02.720
that's been going on the last few days, is not George W. Bush. Lessons have been learned
00:34:07.840
from Iraq and Afghanistan. Remember his devastating exchange with Jeb Bush back in 2015, I guess it was.
00:34:15.560
And the fact is that Trump has been consistent all through these years of saying he's not going to
00:34:20.280
allow Iran to get nukes, while at the same time rightly excoriating the Bush administration
00:34:27.000
and Obama as well for engaging in this pointless and fruitless mission creep and nation building.
00:34:33.640
And so why is it impossible to believe that he intends to take out Iran's nuclear program
00:34:40.800
or is willing to do so if it comes to that? But that does not mean that he's going to go in
00:34:46.500
with some Bushian adventure and try to give democracy to the Iranians.
00:34:51.320
Well, Robert, how do we stop Israel from a decapitation campaign if we're bombing nuclear
00:34:57.400
facilities? What's the leverage we have over them at that point?
00:35:01.500
Well, OK, if Israel undertakes a decapitation campaign, you've also got to reckon with the
00:35:07.020
possibility that the Iranian people might undertake a decapitation campaign. You know that it was
00:35:12.900
several years ago now, as a matter of fact, a full soccer stadium, looks like 50,000, 70,000 people
00:35:19.040
in Iran was chanting, long live Reza Shah, who was the father of the deposed Shah of Iran. He was the
00:35:26.000
Shah in the 1930s. And that kind of open defiance of the Islamic regime and disgust with the Islamic
00:35:32.780
regime also combined with the fact that, as I was trying to say before, that so many Iranians,
00:35:39.260
where it's officially 90% Shiite Muslim and 95 to 99% Muslim in general, and actually only 40% of
00:35:48.140
Iranians now identify as Muslims, is an indication of the deep disgust that the Iranian people
00:35:54.060
themselves have for this regime. There was nothing like that in Iraq or Afghanistan. And both of those
00:36:01.320
were wrongheaded and stupid from the beginning. This is a very different situation with a very
00:36:08.260
different president. And the idea that he's just going to blunder into making all the same mistakes
00:36:13.660
that George W. Bush, who he knows was a fool and has said was a fool, made, there's just no reason
00:36:21.580
I certainly hope so. There is the argument that we've heard in other campaigns in Afghanistan and
00:36:29.200
Iraq that we would be greeted as liberators. And it seems Robert's making that argument now. Dave
00:36:37.160
Well, let me just, I got to respond to a bunch of this stuff. But yeah, of course,
00:36:39.960
there's a million challenges with that. But number one, I wasn't straw man in your position.
00:36:44.800
I didn't claim that your position is to send boots on the ground. That's what a straw man would be.
00:36:49.400
What I said is that your position has an unacceptable risk of being dragged into a situation where we
00:36:55.120
have boots on the ground. So it's not a straw man of your issue. But I just can't believe like the
00:36:59.740
hardest pivot I ever saw in my life from you watching that video of Netanyahu to basically saying,
00:37:05.680
a couple of scientists dropped dead. And so I could imagine a world where they would have had
00:37:10.280
nuclear weapons. He said, with certainty, there's six months away from being at 90%, just bald face
00:37:16.160
lies. And then by the way, I mean, just Matt, as basic human beings watching this here, you're
00:37:20.760
telling me that by the, by the 19th time you've gotten it wrong. You don't go now, granted, I have
00:37:26.380
been wrong about this 18 times in a row, but no, with certainty, he says there's six months away.
00:37:32.080
And any, every honest human being knows he was lying to try to lure America into a regime change
00:37:39.620
that he wanted. And why on earth should we do it on behalf of it? It's just so crazy. I just
00:37:45.220
couldn't believe that you completely got away from that. Um, it's, it's like right there in front of
00:37:49.780
you that the lies are being told. It's the same thing over and over again. I'm sorry. What did you,
00:37:54.880
what question did you want me to answer, Matt? Well, I, I think you got somewhere around there.
00:37:58.960
I'm going to ask you this question. Some say that the modern nature of warfare, Dave is such that
00:38:04.160
everyone kind of has their proxy forces, right? The, a lot of the Sunni monarchies had their
00:38:09.340
proxy forces in ISIS. Uh, we've heard Robert talk about Iran's proxy forces. And so sometimes the
00:38:15.600
neocons make this argument, well, America needs a proxy force and we've been paying for Israel for so
00:38:20.960
long. Why not just use Israel to do America's dirty work and give us plausible deniability.
00:38:27.020
They get the return rockets instead of us. Actually, America first would mean giving Israel the
00:38:33.380
weapons so that they could execute this campaign with great effectiveness.
00:38:38.020
Well, there's, it's, it's not a war that's in America's interest. So I don't see what the,
00:38:43.020
and, and a belief we've had plenty of proxies. I mean, half the, half the, um, the world is American
00:38:49.360
sock puppets. All right. We're, we, we prop up Jordan and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
00:38:56.200
and Egypt and Israel. And I mean, you know, yeah. Okay. It's the, the common theme amongst
00:39:02.600
the countries that people are always advocating regime change against is that they're the few
00:39:07.240
ones that aren't American sock puppets. So I don't even know what people are talking about,
00:39:11.560
man. And this whole thing, all this whole experiment of America being super involved in
00:39:16.240
the middle East, it is, it, listen, it's like, I can't even believe people can argue for this
00:39:20.240
anymore. What is it brought us? It's bankrupted the country. We got thousands of our bravest young
00:39:25.880
boys who have been, who have been killed tens of thousands of them who have been maimed and injured
00:39:30.620
tens more thousands who have blown their brains out in the aftermath of these wars. And we're sitting
00:39:35.660
here talking about again, what, whether we're going to launch an illegal aggressive war of choice or
00:39:43.340
help the Israelis launch an illegal aggressive war of choice. This is, I don't know. This is absolute
00:39:48.880
madness. There is no, we don't need to do this. And if you want to look there and say, look,
00:39:53.940
you know, the argument that, well, Donald Trump said some good stuff about it back then. So there
00:39:57.920
it's like, yeah, Donald Trump just demanded a complete surrender, dude. I don't know. It's not
00:40:02.720
looking like he's, he's pursuing that policy. And I think we should be trying to do everything in our
00:40:07.160
power to urge him to, to get back to the, you know, his previous position, by the way, that was kind of
00:40:12.840
my point when I said that he was betraying MAGA, whatever MAGA means to you. The point is that he's
00:40:17.940
gotten away from that great stuff he was saying, and now he's demanding a complete surrender. Sir,
00:40:22.200
you demand complete surrenders from nations you are at war with. What are we doing here?
00:40:27.980
Yeah. I want to talk about the cost of that war with Robert. One of the things that has given a lot
00:40:34.440
of millennials resentment over the regime change wars in the Middle East of yesteryear is the cost.
00:40:39.460
And so I wondered if you'd given any thought to like, what's an amount of money that is worth it to
00:40:45.840
the, to the American taxpayer to cause a regime change in Iraq? I'm sorry.
00:40:50.420
Well, there's no doubt that this is a big thing that has been not paid sufficient attention to.
00:40:56.880
The fact is that Osama bin Laden actually launched the 9-11 attacks in order to cripple America
00:41:02.900
economically. And that was why he chose the target of the World Trade Center, thinking that it was the
00:41:08.900
center of the economic activity of the United States. And so there, and there's no doubt that
00:41:15.280
he had tremendous success with this. And the American economy has suffered tremendously in all
00:41:22.080
kinds of ways from the war on terror, so-called, which was wrongly conceived and wrongly pursued from
00:41:31.020
the beginning. But on the other hand, you have to balance economic considerations against considerations
00:41:38.900
of survival. And Dave was saying, are we going to go to war for Israel because Netanyahu wants us to go
00:41:44.860
to war? Even if Netanyahu and Israel didn't exist, you have a regime that, as I showed earlier, has
00:41:52.200
repeatedly attacked the United States, is on a war footing with the United States, has been since 1979,
00:41:58.540
has incredibly hostile stances toward American policies, has kidnapped Americans, tortured
00:42:08.460
Americans, killed Americans. Meanwhile, the rhetoric, yes, is frankly about destroying America.
00:42:17.480
And this is something that the- But how much money, Robert? Is it worth a trillion dollars?
00:42:22.520
...to assassinate Trump? And so- We got it. Oh, come on.
00:42:25.740
We've heard- No, no. We've heard you lay out the list of criticisms. The question is,
00:42:30.860
what is it worth financially to you? Well, survival is worth a lot to me, yeah.
00:42:36.340
Do you think that toppling the Iranian regime is necessary for American survival?
00:42:41.240
If they attack, if they have a nuclear weapon and they are attacking Americans-
00:42:46.620
But just as you find them now, as you find them today, however that is,
00:42:50.260
do you think it's worth a trillion dollars in U.S. spending to change the regime there?
00:42:55.540
To change? You mean just like willy-nilly, out of the blue, with them just minding their own business?
00:42:59.660
That's not the situation that we're in. Well, no, I didn't say that. I said,
00:43:02.820
in the situation you find it now. Not an idyllic situation or not a catastrophic situation.
00:43:08.700
I do not think that the United States should act right now to either attack Iran or change the regime in Iran.
00:43:21.540
Iran could well attack. And if Iran attacks, we should be prepared to defend ourselves.
00:43:27.040
Is there any limit on the amount of money, resources, or material you would give Israel in this battle?
00:43:32.280
Well, you know, the money is very bad because the people in Washington behave as if the money never runs out.
00:43:42.200
And so I'm not really in favor of giving out money in general.
00:43:47.660
But when you are coming to issues of survival of the United States, then you're going to have to shell out.
00:43:55.280
At the same time, we have tremendous economic problems in the United States that I believe ought to be addressed and foreign aid ought to be stopped.
00:44:04.020
Are you actually making the argument that this is a war of our survival, that we won't survive if Israel doesn't overthrow the Iranian government?
00:44:18.000
If they attack the United States, it's a very different situation.
00:44:21.540
Can I just say, when you say attack the United States, I'm sorry, I don't mean to interrupt, just a clarifying question.
00:44:28.420
I just want to ask you a clarifying question because I just don't.
00:44:30.580
When you say the United States of America, we might be talking about different things.
00:44:33.580
Like I'm talking about the geographic area between Mexico and Canada, like the middle section of North America.
00:44:38.880
When you say they've attacked the United States of America, when has Iran attacked the United States of America?
00:44:42.720
Well, if you limit it to that, then you can talk about the assassination attempt on Maseh al-Najjad, the Iranian dissident in New York a few years back.
00:44:54.080
You can talk about the attack on the, I believe it was a Saudi diplomat in a restaurant in Washington a few years before that.
00:45:04.280
Did they ever even demonstrate that that was Iran?
00:45:12.160
You're telling me Iran was trying to assassinate Donald Trump?
00:45:17.480
You're telling me Donald Trump, they tried to assassinate him, and Donald Trump's response was to negotiate?
00:45:26.380
Manhattan federal prosecutors in November 24 charged Farhad Shaqiri with plotting to kill Trump before the election at the behest of the Iranian government and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
00:45:39.520
They ordered an operative to assassinate Trump.
00:45:47.940
Well, Robert, Robert, Robert, absolutely no proof.
00:45:50.880
Did we also have sort of a revenge plot in the Iraq war on an assassination attempt?
00:45:59.620
As I recall, you know, there was this belief that an individual had motivated an assassination attempt against George H.W. Bush, and that that was something that inspired his son-
00:46:12.480
Saddam was supposed to have done that, and so W. wanted to do it.
00:46:20.800
And so, look, also, there have been the fact that the Iranian leadership has said that they want to assassinate Trump.
00:46:28.320
Not Spencer, not Benjamin Netanyahu, but the Amir Ali Hajizadeh, who was the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Aerospace Force 2023, says,
00:46:39.940
Allah willing, we're looking to kill Trump and Pompeo, and military commanders who issued the order to kill Soleimani should be killed.
00:46:52.040
The Supreme Leader's website posted a photo montage of Trump playing golf under the shadow of a drone with calls to avenge the death of Soleimani.
00:47:02.760
Sir, how are you possibly not advocating that we declare war on Iran right now?
00:47:08.480
How is Donald Trump such a wimp that his response to this, they're trying to murder him, and his response was to negotiate?
00:47:16.020
So how, you should, you should support America declaring war on Iran right now.
00:47:23.080
I don't buy it, because the fact is that Trump is a man who makes deals.
00:47:27.980
He sees, he's, for all the talk about him being a narcissistic, egomaniac, or whatever, he is actually extremely pragmatic.
00:47:37.000
All right, all right, hold on, hold on, hold on, let me get in here for just a moment.
00:47:40.260
And so he understands there are more important considerations at play here.
00:47:45.520
If he can pacify this situation with the deal, he's willing to do it.
00:47:49.540
But I saw the video of Trump being killed by the drone that the Supreme Leader posted.
00:48:00.160
We are out of time, but I do want to get a final word from each of you.
00:48:06.600
I'm going to give you each about a one-minute closing statement.
00:48:11.880
Yeah, I mean, again, as I was getting at there, Iran has never attacked the United States of America.
00:48:20.640
All this war propaganda, I get all these lies will fade away.
00:48:27.180
You remember at the beginning of the Ukraine war when there was the ghost of Kiev and the war was going to be fought with sanctions alone and that was going to drive the Russians out.
00:48:35.620
You remember how the Afghan army was going to hold the country together.
00:48:40.980
You remember when the surge was going to work in 2007 and Dick Cheney said the insurgencies and its final throes.
00:48:47.060
And then it just went on for years and years and years and hundreds of thousands of more people died.
00:48:52.220
You remember when they said mission accomplished.
00:48:53.920
You remember when they said they had weapons of mass destruction.
00:49:00.480
We are choosing to engage in another aggressive war of choice to overthrow another regime in the Middle East.
00:49:10.560
And it is absolute madness for anybody to support this.
00:49:14.340
It's just the last thing that the United States of America needs.
00:49:17.860
And all of this hyperbole about how we will be finished is absurd.
00:49:24.800
Yeah, once again, this is a straw man because this is not what I'm saying.
00:49:29.520
I'm not in favor of a war of choice for regime change in the Middle East.
00:49:38.020
This is abundantly documented by the IAEA and others.
00:49:41.660
The foreign minister of France recently was talking about how Iran poses an imminent threat.
00:49:47.000
He doesn't have any reason to be in the pocket of Israel.
00:49:51.880
As a matter of fact, the French government under Macron has been quite hostile to Israel.
00:49:56.040
And so the idea that this is some kind of war for Israel in a repeat of 2003 is completely out of focus.
00:50:02.880
Trump, above all, has learned the lessons of 2003 and the drastic mistakes of Iraq and Afghanistan.
00:50:14.440
If regime change does come in Iran, it's most likely to come from the Iranian people themselves.
00:50:20.020
And we should be supporting them wholeheartedly in every way that we possibly can.
00:50:28.140
Dave Smith is host of Part of the Problem podcast.
00:50:31.360
Zero Hedge puts on these debates as their Zero Hedge debates.
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I'm Matt Gaetz, host of The Matt Gaetz Show on One America News.
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