#610: Who Lives in Survival Situations, Who Dies, and Why
Episode Stats
Words per Minute
181.58707
Summary
In disasters or accidents, why do some people survive and others perish? In exploring this question, my guest has uncovered psychological and philosophical insights into not only dealing with life-threatening crises, but strategically navigating any situation that involves risk and decision-making. His name is Lawrence Gonzalez, a pilot, a journalist, and the author of several books, including the focus of today s conversation, Deep Survival, Who Lives, Who Dies, and Why. Today, we discuss how the story of his father being shot out of the sky during World War II set Lawrence on a journey to explore the mysterious underpinnings of survival.
Transcript
00:00:00.000
Brett McKay here, and welcome to another edition of the Art of Manliness podcast.
00:00:11.180
In disasters or accidents, why do some people survive and others perish?
00:00:15.480
In exploring this question, my guest has uncovered psychological and philosophical insights into
00:00:19.700
not only dealing with life-threatening crises, but strategically navigating any situation
00:00:26.780
He's a pilot, a journalist, and the author of several books, including the focus of today's
00:00:30.740
conversation, Deep Survival, Who Lives, Who Dies, and Why.
00:00:34.360
Today on the show, we discuss how the story of his father being shot out of the sky during
00:00:37.720
World War II set Lawrence on a journey to explore the mysterious underpinnings of survival.
00:00:42.220
Lawrence then explains what happens to us mentally and emotionally in a disaster situation that
00:00:46.040
causes us to make poor decisions, how our mental models can get us in trouble, and why rule
00:00:50.340
breakers are more likely to survive than rule followers.
00:00:53.460
Lawrence then walks us through complexity theory, and how trying to make things safer can
00:00:59.220
We then talk about why the frequency with which you yell at your kids correlates to your
00:01:02.540
chances of surviving a life-threatening emergency, before ending our conversation with a discussion
00:01:06.420
of the paradoxes would-be survivors must grapple with, including being both realistic and hopeful
00:01:12.320
After the show is over, check out our show notes at awim.is slash deepsurvival.
00:01:33.940
So you wrote a book, we're coming up on almost 20 years ago, Deep Survival, Who Lives, Who
00:01:41.060
This is a book about the psychology of survival, where you go and you look at accidents that
00:01:45.280
happen in the wilderness, mountain disasters, people getting lost, people drowning in rivers.
00:01:51.240
But this is also a very personal book, because throughout it, we have a story of your own
00:01:58.180
The story of your father sort of began this search of why people survive in dire situations.
00:02:05.020
Can you tell us about that story and how it sort of kick-started this journey of yours?
00:02:20.600
And on January 23, 1945, he was doing a bombing raid on Dusseldorf, where there's a big railroad
00:02:30.040
And before he got to the target, he had his left wing shot off by anti-aircraft fire.
00:02:35.120
Now, this was one of those gigantic raids near the end of the war, where they would put
00:02:45.000
This particular mission was 700 planes, approximately.
00:02:48.780
And my dad was the very first plane, and he was the pilot.
00:02:57.060
And his left wing was shot off, which meant his right wing was still flying.
00:03:01.660
So it rolled upside down and started spinning, and it spun so fast that the G-forces pulled
00:03:09.180
And my father was in a little fragment of the cockpit that had torn off, and he fell 27,000
00:03:17.960
He never got his parachute, which was under his seat.
00:03:23.140
And so essentially, with the aerodynamics of a bathtub, he fell 27,000 feet and survived.
00:03:31.740
And in fact, he was very badly injured, but the Germans took him to a prison camp.
00:03:36.840
It was a prison camp hospital, and there was a French surgeon who put him back together
00:03:49.160
I was born a couple of years later, and I grew up with these stories, which to me sounded
00:03:55.680
But I grew up also with the sense that, hey, I might not have been here.
00:04:00.320
You know, if my father, everybody else in his crew was killed except him.
00:04:04.180
And if my father had somehow not survived that fall, I wouldn't be here.
00:04:07.960
And that was a very existential kind of thought for a little kid to have.
00:04:13.240
And it was also a very big deal in my growing up, because every January 23rd, my mother would
00:04:19.620
have a special meal and make a cake and celebrate my father's survival.
00:04:26.420
And it began my quest to find out who lives, who dies, and why, and ultimately led me to
00:04:34.460
And what's interesting, your father never flew after that, but then you went on yourself to
00:04:42.080
So I grew up with the idea that flying an airplane was the coolest thing in the world,
00:04:46.800
and that even cooler would be to fly upside down with smoke.
00:04:51.460
And just as soon as I could arrange it, I got my pilot's license.
00:04:57.260
And for about eight years in the early 90s, throughout the mid-90s, I flew aerobatics.
00:05:08.380
But I flew a very high-powered aircraft called the Pitt Special, which I probably had no
00:05:18.460
You know, I mean, I think most people, they heard their dad almost died in a plane.
00:05:25.400
I'm going to do some of the most dangerous things you do.
00:05:27.400
I'm actually going to turn upside down and do flips in a plane.
00:05:34.300
So when I was flying competition, they have these aerial routines that you have to do.
00:05:38.660
It's like compulsory set of figures that you do in the sky.
00:05:42.540
So it might be, you know, a spin and a roll and a Cuban 8 and an Immelman and whatever other
00:05:59.340
And we went up and I took him through my sportsman routine in the aerobatics competition.
00:06:06.120
And he didn't say much, you know, we were on headphones together and got back on the
00:06:12.000
And he said, you're a really good pilot, which is like the ultimate, you know, that I've
00:06:20.020
Well, in your book, Deep Survival, you focus primarily on disasters that happen when people
00:06:26.220
are doing recreational activities in the outdoors.
00:06:32.500
So I had been working for National Geographic doing what we would call adventure journalism.
00:06:38.340
National Geographic had a magazine for some years called National Geographic Adventure.
00:06:49.080
It was that he would try to get me killed and I'd try to come back with a story.
00:06:55.060
Like I would go learn rock climbing or I'd go to Glacier National Park and get myself lost.
00:07:00.520
And after a few years of doing this, I came to him one day and said, you know, we glamorize
00:07:07.380
this stuff and we publish these beautiful photographs and people want to go out there
00:07:13.140
And I think we owe it to them to say, hey, you can get killed out there.
00:07:16.580
And here are some things that maybe you should think about before you go.
00:07:24.340
And I kept after him actually for a couple of years before he finally said, okay, go ahead
00:07:30.540
And I did a piece in the magazine called The Rules of Adventure.
00:07:35.600
And it was this stuff about the psychology of like how people make, essentially the meaning
00:07:46.660
And that got me started down the road of doing deep survival in earnest.
00:07:53.320
And this really all began back in the early 70s when I was investigating airline
00:08:01.120
And I would always go to the NTSB and say, you know, this guy who crashed his plane,
00:08:14.880
How come he did this stupid thing and flew his plane into the ground?
00:08:17.700
And they would always say, well, we don't know.
00:08:23.280
And I always thought that's the most interesting question.
00:08:26.360
It's like, why did the smart guy do this stupid thing?
00:08:30.140
And so when I wrote Deep Survival, I did write about all these wilderness accidents and recreational
00:08:36.100
But I tried also to connect them to other things in our lives that involve risk and decision
00:08:41.600
making, such as running a hedge fund, being a cancer doctor, you know, any kind of ordinary
00:08:48.400
activity that involves incomplete information or confusing information where you have to make
00:08:55.940
And the thing about the outdoors, it's you're in a complex environment where you have very
00:09:01.760
I mean, I have actually no control over most of the stuff, the weather, the terrain, and
00:09:07.820
You're living in a complex environment, a business.
00:09:09.820
There's so many decisions you have to make, and you don't have a lot of control over those
00:09:14.820
So yeah, in the first part of your book, you talk about, okay, why do people get in these
00:09:20.200
Why do people get into accidents in the wilderness?
00:09:23.400
And you focus in the first part of the book talking about the role of emotions play that
00:09:27.920
people, sort of, I don't know, cause people to make bad decisions.
00:09:31.760
So what happens to our emotions whenever we face a survival or disaster scenario?
00:09:47.040
We both know that nobody else is here because we're sheltering in place because of the coronavirus.
00:09:52.360
Moreover, we know that there most likely aren't any bears in our house right now.
00:09:58.480
So I come up the stairs and I come around the corner and all of a sudden my wife is right
00:10:02.560
in front of me coming the other way and I grab my chest and I go, oh my gosh, you scared me.
00:10:11.040
But during that moment of getting startled, some interesting things take place because
00:10:15.300
none of my cognitive knowledge that I just told you about makes any difference at all.
00:10:20.200
The emotional response of being startled is full-blown almost instantly.
00:10:26.240
And it means my heart is racing, my steroid levels go up, my bloodstream, my muscles tense,
00:10:33.020
Everything for a fight or flight response is amped up, even though there's absolutely no
00:10:42.840
This tells us, first of all, emotion and reason work like a seesaw for the most part.
00:10:47.460
And when emotion is very high, reason goes out the window and it just doesn't function
00:10:54.420
In these situations like this, we don't tend to make up new behaviors.
00:10:59.640
We tend to do what we've done before and we don't tend to get much choice in how we
00:11:05.640
So no matter how many years my wife and I have been married, no matter how many times this
00:11:10.140
has happened in our little house, I can't prevent it from happening.
00:11:13.380
And we have this joke because she'll be coming around the corner and she'll hear me on the
00:11:21.240
Like she knows she's going to startle me and is trying to prevent it.
00:11:24.720
So that's essentially in many of the scenarios I describe in the book, Deep Survival, I'm
00:11:30.980
describing people who are overcome by emotion when if they took the time to sit down and think
00:11:36.040
about what they were doing, they wouldn't do it.
00:11:37.660
Well, and you also talk about this concept of there's primary emotions and there's secondary
00:11:42.400
emotions and people who survive tend to, they've trained up those secondary emotions.
00:11:48.360
So when we're born, we have a set of built-in emotions.
00:11:52.640
Little babies have, you know, they can cry if you hold a baby up, you know, under his arms
00:11:58.980
in front of you, he'll kick his legs rhythmically.
00:12:04.080
In fact, babies have a real powerful startle reaction.
00:12:07.800
If you make a loud noise, the baby will startle and cry.
00:12:10.920
And most animals of our kind, I believe, are born with an innate fear of snakes and shapes
00:12:18.880
But beyond these primary emotions, as they call them, you will develop all kinds of secondary
00:12:29.560
You will learn to like the things that are good for you.
00:12:32.360
And you will learn to dislike the things that are bad for you.
00:12:35.920
And that means you will label those things with either a good emotion or a bad emotion.
00:12:41.260
And it just depends on who you are, what things you're going to be attracted to.
00:12:50.480
We're born with the response to sweet things that we have, which is we like them.
00:12:57.820
But like when my son Jonas was, I don't know, two, maybe two or three, when the garbage truck
00:13:04.180
would come in the alley, he would get all excited and scream, garbage truck, garbage truck.
00:13:09.640
And he would be like quivering with excitement because to him, this was a great, you know,
00:13:18.760
And gradually over time, he got used to the garbage truck and it faded into, you know, the
00:13:24.240
And so this is kind of the course that emotions take.
00:13:28.760
And I mean, those sort of those emotions that we associate with events, you call those
00:13:34.040
So like if something happens, you either bookmark it as good or bookmark it as bad.
00:13:39.380
And then you might even bookmark it with certain actions that you do as a result of experiencing
00:13:45.880
Yeah, so one of the stories I tell in the book is about a group of snowmobilers, and they
00:13:52.840
are actually going out in search of a snowmobiler who didn't come back.
00:13:56.860
And they're told at the beginning of the day, the avalanche danger is very high.
00:14:03.780
And high marking is where you run your snowmobile up the side of the mountain, see how high you
00:14:08.620
And then before you have to turn around and come back down.
00:14:10.800
And the guy who makes the highest mark is the winner.
00:14:15.220
And this is a real fun thing to do with a snowmobile.
00:14:19.460
And so they're puttering along out there in the woods trying to find this guy.
00:14:26.780
And one of the guys suddenly is overcome by emotion and races up the hill.
00:14:39.440
But at that moment, with the smell of the woods and the sound of the engines and the
00:14:48.900
Of course, the reason the story is in the book is because it ends badly.
00:14:55.320
And then everybody stands around and says, well, you know, why did he do it?
00:14:58.800
And the answer is he did it because of the nature of the emotional response.
00:15:03.720
Or something in that scene or a combination of those things in the scene had been embedded in his emotional system time and again until it became automatic.
00:15:14.100
And just the smell of the pine, you know, could have been enough to make him do this without thinking.
00:15:19.860
And so, you know, it's an extremely powerful system.
00:15:24.820
It's meant for our survival and obviously has worked because here we are.
00:15:30.460
He probably, he'd done that lots of times before, had a positive emotional experience with it.
00:15:37.220
He did it thinking it would be like the other times where it'd be a fun experience and it didn't turn out the way.
00:15:47.440
And every time he'd done it before, it had been good.
00:15:51.880
All his time on a snowmobile, he'd had the same experience.
00:15:55.760
And you hear this all the time from people who get dead, as the saying goes.
00:16:01.620
And their friends would say, but we always did it this way.
00:16:06.440
And I say in the book, you know, you read in the newspaper about the accident and it says he was a very experienced snowmobiler.
00:16:14.280
And very experienced may simply mean he's done the wrong thing more times than you have.
00:16:22.320
Well, and the other example you gave of someone who had some emotional bookmarks, you know, embedded in him, but it ended up poorly for him was, I guess he was like a former army ranger, special forces guy.
00:16:32.860
And he went whitewater rafting, fell out of the boat, and he actually was pretty calm and relaxed.
00:16:38.920
He's like, oh, yeah, this is, you know, I don't have to worry about this.
00:16:42.100
I've come out good when I've been put in situations like that.
00:16:45.320
And he wasn't thinking and he made a bad choice.
00:16:52.220
And so he was an army ranger and in army ranger training, if you need to be rescued, you're out of the program.
00:17:01.420
You're trained that rescue is not a good thing.
00:17:06.040
So when he fell out of the raft, the guide jumped in the water to rescue him.
00:17:14.460
Pushed the rescuer away and laughed at him like, you know, I'm an army ranger.
00:17:19.260
And moreover, he had a bad emotional bookmark associated with being rescued and a good emotional bookmark for taking care of himself.
00:17:28.660
He just didn't understand the nature of the hazard he was in.
00:17:32.660
And that's often the case with people who get in trouble.
00:17:38.920
And so it's, you know, it's always good to think about your environment and what you don't know about it.
00:17:44.260
When your environment changes, you can't just keep acting the way you've acted all your life.
00:17:49.380
So the big takeaway there, oftentimes when people make decisions that kill them in the wilderness, they're not typically thinking.
00:17:55.800
Their emotions are making the decisions for them.
00:17:57.980
We're going to take a quick break for your words from our sponsors.
00:18:04.480
What I love about your book is you go in deep in this idea of mental models.
00:18:07.800
And we've written about this on the website and had guests talk about mental models with, you know, John Boyd and his OODA loop and whatnot.
00:18:15.180
But what role do mental models play in accidents happening in the wild?
00:18:19.440
So just to, for those of your listeners who aren't sure about this, mental models are something we create all our lives to make ourselves efficient.
00:18:29.820
And if you have little children around, you can watch them doing it.
00:18:32.740
You get a one, one-and-a-half-year-old who's able to say a word or two and walk, and this child encounters a dog, and somebody will say doggy, and the child will immediately learn what a dog is.
00:18:46.280
And it doesn't matter from there on if it's a Great Dane or a Chihuahua.
00:18:50.600
This child is never going to mistake a goat for a dog.
00:18:54.000
They will have a sort of template for what a dog is, and I call this a mental model.
00:19:00.000
And it will free them of the necessity for examining every dog they encounter to see if it's not actually a buffalo or a cat.
00:19:09.640
And we do this with everything in our environment.
00:19:12.020
Anything that we see multiple, you know, if you look at a book,
00:19:15.420
at different books, at different angles, they all give different visual impressions, and yet we know exactly what they are.
00:19:23.420
So we tend to find these big groupings of things.
00:19:26.360
And then once we have them, we figure out things to do with them that I call behavioral scripts.
00:19:31.340
So, for example, you can teach a child to tie his shoe.
00:19:36.240
Teaching someone to tie his shoe is very difficult to do,
00:19:39.180
but it produces this kind of miracle in which something that takes all of his attention and conscious, deliberate thought
00:19:46.220
turns into something that takes none of his attention and is absolutely automatic.
00:19:50.760
So we tend to do this with everything in our lives.
00:19:54.180
If we do something enough, it becomes automatic.
00:19:57.080
We instantly recognize the thing and what we're supposed to do with the thing,
00:20:01.480
and we also label it with emotional valence of some kind, that it's good or that it's bad.
00:20:07.480
Most people will very quickly and early on, if it's not a primary emotion already, learn to, you know, brush an insect off.
00:20:16.020
So if an insect lands on your face, you're going to immediately respond to it.
00:20:21.080
But everything in our life will become that way.
00:20:28.820
But the problem with mental models whenever you're out in the wild is,
00:20:33.640
and you face a situation where things get dangerous,
00:20:36.420
like you might not ever experience that situation that you're finding yourself in,
00:20:40.800
and as a result, you still behave based on prior assumptions or a prior mental model,
00:20:49.880
So we tend, as I think I said this earlier, we tend not to invent new behaviors under stress.
00:20:56.080
If we're in a stressful situation, a high emotional situation, we tend to do what we've done before,
00:21:02.320
and that can lead us into a dangerous place or take our lives.
00:21:08.900
There's one case in the book in which a guy gets lost, and he, people don't tend to backtrack.
00:21:21.260
A bunch of things happen, and he's stopped making good decisions.
00:21:25.860
And so he starts running around in a kind of panic to try to find out where he is,
00:21:31.700
which is a very typical, you know, you run from danger, and it's kind of an automatic thing.
00:21:38.280
Eventually, he gets himself under control and survives.
00:21:40.760
But many times, young kids, not very young, but like teenage kids, will start running,
00:21:49.100
So this automatic response can be quite dangerous.
00:21:52.800
And you also talk about how, you know, our mental models are so embedded in us.
00:21:57.220
You talk about the research that shows whenever people do face a disaster situation,
00:22:02.180
like a fire in a building or like in a plane crash,
00:22:05.480
people, you think the normal response would just be panic,
00:22:09.480
but like a lot of people just sit there and act like everything's normal.
00:22:12.720
Because like the mental model still hasn't updated that,
00:22:15.880
oh, wait, something bad is happening right now.
00:22:18.140
So there are a couple of things I would say about that.
00:22:20.560
The first is there's a case, and I don't know if it's in the book Deep Survival or not,
00:22:28.620
A girl has been in the habit of coming out of her dorm room,
00:22:32.720
going to the left to get to class every day, you know, going to the left in the hallway on,
00:22:39.200
I believe it was the second floor, and there's a fire.
00:22:42.640
And the exit is to the right that's closest to her room,
00:22:45.820
and she goes out her door and runs to the left and dies,
00:22:54.220
yes, it's very common in airline crashes to find people strapped in their seats,
00:22:58.680
otherwise uninjured, but dead from smoke inhalation because they just didn't do anything.
00:23:04.740
This is a very common mammalian reaction to freeze.
00:23:08.940
And if you look at the video, I believe it was 1996 when the Atlanta Olympics were bombed,
00:23:18.220
And when the bomb goes off, everybody drops to one knee.
00:23:25.080
But that first freezing response is very, very typical of mammals,
00:23:33.840
However, under extreme trauma, you can get a very deep freezing response
00:23:38.900
that can actually do damage and in some cases can even kill you.
00:23:43.440
This is a response inherited from our reptilian ancestors
00:23:51.000
And they can lower their metabolism so that they can stay underwater for a long time.
00:23:57.640
and you need a lot of oxygen for the big brain if you're a person.
00:24:01.140
And so if you do this freeze response and lower your own metabolism,
00:24:08.280
I think another example, you just mentioned the Atlanta bombing that happened in the 90s.
00:24:12.180
That jogged my memory, something I remember reading from your book,
00:24:15.200
of a mental model getting people killed was with the world trade attack.
00:24:19.120
And so the example you gave was, first, we all know about the bombing that happened in the 90s.
00:24:25.260
And the thing that people did to help them survive was go up.
00:24:32.240
And so when the World Trade Center attack happened in 2001,
00:24:36.340
when they felt the building shake and they say there's an explosion,
00:24:40.280
like people's mental models, well, last time this happened,
00:24:45.380
But that actually ended up getting people killed.
00:24:49.520
There had been, at the time of the first bombing,
00:24:54.180
but they had somebody who was able to unlock the door to the roof.
00:24:57.200
And they got on the roof of the building and were rescued from there.
00:25:11.960
By the time they realized they couldn't get out on the roof,
00:25:17.020
they started to go down and they could no longer get down.
00:25:24.800
And we have to be aware of, in stressful situations or dangerous situations,
00:25:45.700
that include these pieces of advice of how to manage that.
00:25:55.020
the people that typically survive are rule breakers.
00:26:05.920
And it turns out that in medicine, for example,
00:26:13.460
people who follow the rules tend not to do as well.
00:26:20.820
they die in six months because that's what you told them.
00:27:03.800
I think I'll make my way over there to that spot.
00:27:06.240
And each time he does one thing, he thinks, wow, I'm dead,
00:27:23.500
We oftentimes are using out-of-date mental models
00:27:30.920
But besides human psychology causing accidents,
00:27:39.980
I think people have heard about complexity theory,
00:27:49.040
So complexity theory applies to certain kinds of systems
00:27:55.180
So if you take an example like the stock market,
00:27:59.740
You can buy something or you can sell something.
00:28:01.840
I mean, there's lots of complex schemes in there,
00:28:52.480
I say that if you look at mountaineering accidents,
00:29:01.320
go out there to climb these mountains all the time.