The Art of Manliness - #637： What Poker Can Teach You About Luck, Skill, and Mastering Yourself

00:00:00.000 Brett McKay here and welcome to another edition of the Art of Manliness podcast.

00:00:11.140 Maria Konnikova, who has her PhD in psychology and studies human behavior,

00:00:14.820 had never played poker when she approached Eric Seidel,

00:00:17.580 renowned player of the game, asking him to show her the ropes.

00:00:20.320 Eric agreed to be her coach and Maria spent a year working towards the World Series of poker,

00:00:23.880 playing in numerous tournaments and winning a major title and hundreds of thousands of dollars along the way.

00:00:28.200 But the real prize she was after in this experimental endeavor wasn't money,

00:00:31.880 but insight into the intersection between skill and luck and how much control we humans have over our fate.

00:00:36.980 She got those insights in spades and shares them in her latest book,

00:00:40.000 The Biggest Bluff, How I Learned to Pay Attention, Master Myself and Win.

00:00:43.700 Today on the show, Maria explains why the poker table may be the best place to learn about the balance between chance and skill

00:00:48.560 and why we have such trouble untangling those two forces.

00:00:51.300 We then get into how gambling has long been an interest to philosophers and led to advancements in probability theory,

00:00:56.000 as well as why understanding the dynamics of betting allows us to improve ourselves.

00:00:59.400 Maria then shares how she learned to detach herself from the outcomes of hands and contrary only on what she could control

00:01:03.840 and how liberating it is to separate process from results.

00:01:06.860 She then describes the connection between poker and Sherlock Holmes and how the game helped her not just see things,

00:01:11.500 but observe them.

00:01:12.400 We then delve into the bias that you off track with your goals and the simple technique you can use to overcome them.

00:01:16.800 We enter a conversation with Maria's conclusions on the respective roles, luck and skill play in our lives.

00:01:21.400 After the show's over, check out our show notes at aom.is slash poker.

00:01:24.600 Maria Konnikova, welcome back to the show.

00:01:35.760 Thank you so much for having me.

00:01:37.200 So we had you on last time to talk about your book, The Confidence Game, which is about the psychology of con men.

00:01:42.460 You got a new book out called The Biggest Bluff, and it's about your experience of taking a year of your life

00:01:48.940 to learn how to play professional poker.

00:01:51.180 And you study psychology, what you do for a living, how you can apply psychology.

00:01:55.840 What made you decide, I'm going to take a year of my life, I'm going to learn to play poker?

00:01:59.800 It's not a love of poker, or at least it wasn't initially.

00:02:02.620 I had zero interest in the game, didn't know anything about it really, and don't like games in general.

00:02:11.560 Everyone's like, oh, well, you must have played chess when you were growing up.

00:02:14.620 Actually, no, not all Russian girls play chess when they're growing up.

00:02:19.880 I wanted to write about luck and the role that luck plays in our lives.

00:02:23.960 And I wanted to write something that would help me learn more about the line between skill and chance,

00:02:34.340 the things we control, the things we don't control, and to try to figure out how we can learn to tell the difference

00:02:40.600 and how we can maximize our skill and minimize bad luck, which is inevitable.

00:02:46.300 I mean, bad luck is going to happen to everyone at some point.

00:02:49.160 And I needed a way into the topic.

00:02:53.640 And so I was reading anything I could find that had to do with luck and came across John von Neumann's theory of games.

00:03:01.080 Learned that von Neumann, who's the father of game theory, was a huge poker player,

00:03:06.480 and that poker was actually the inspiration for game theory.

00:03:10.280 And the way he wrote about poker was really interesting to me.

00:03:13.320 He wrote that it was the game that best mirrored decision-making in real life,

00:03:19.560 because it was a game of incomplete information, of things that I know, things that you know, things we both know.

00:03:26.540 And the goal is to make the best decision we possibly can, given this limited information,

00:03:34.100 knowing that we're not going to know everything,

00:03:36.980 knowing that our decision is going to inherently be probabilistic.

00:03:40.920 Like, there's no such thing as 100%, that it's not like chess,

00:03:45.780 where you can always find the right move, because all the moves are available.

00:03:49.360 You can see everything, and theoretically, you can calculate it.

00:03:52.220 In poker, that's not the case.

00:03:54.000 He said, that's life, and if I solve this,

00:03:56.320 I'll have the key to some of the most complex decisions in the world.

00:04:01.180 And this really intrigued me.

00:04:02.780 And so I thought, well, this poker thing sounds interesting.

00:04:06.300 Let me read about it.

00:04:07.400 And when I started reading about it, everything just fell into place.

00:04:11.060 I thought, this is it.

00:04:12.220 This is my book.

00:04:13.520 Why don't I take up von Neumann's challenge, so to speak?

00:04:16.920 Why don't I learn to play the game, get someone really, really good to teach me,

00:04:20.480 start from scratch, and use my journey in this new world

00:04:24.760 as a way of answering those questions

00:04:28.320 that had brought me to von Neumann and to game theory to begin with?

00:04:31.960 So let's talk about this question about skill and luck.

00:04:37.480 What makes it hard to distangle what we can attribute to our own skill

00:04:43.340 and what we can attribute to just dumb luck?

00:04:47.460 Because I think oftentimes we confuse the two.

00:04:50.460 Absolutely.

00:04:51.340 And in real life, it's really, really difficult to tell the difference

00:04:54.820 because life is noisy.

00:04:57.280 It's messy.

00:04:57.860 There are so many variables that you can almost always find something to blame

00:05:02.800 if things go wrong.

00:05:03.940 Say, oh, it's not my fault.

00:05:05.080 You know, this happened or that happened.

00:05:06.760 I couldn't have predicted that.

00:05:08.780 And when things go right, we can almost always find a way to take credit

00:05:12.620 and say, yeah, you know, I did that.

00:05:14.800 I'm so good.

00:05:15.520 I'm brilliant.

00:05:16.560 I'm talented.

00:05:17.640 I deserve this.

00:05:18.420 This is great.

00:05:18.960 And that's what makes this question so incredibly challenging

00:05:24.420 because in many ways, improving yourself, improving your decisions,

00:05:30.840 becoming someone who is more thoughtful and more self-aware requires you to be honest

00:05:37.300 and to actually learn to tell the difference

00:05:39.760 and learn to take credit for the things you should take credit for,

00:05:43.460 but also take blame for the things you should take blame for

00:05:46.160 and not take credit for things when you just get lucky.

00:05:50.020 And that's really, really hard.

00:05:52.480 A lot of people who are very successful say, oh, you know,

00:05:56.600 sure, maybe I got lucky here and there, but I worked really hard.

00:05:59.840 And it's all my skill.

00:06:01.420 Actually, one of the things that I learned early on

00:06:04.200 when I was starting to work on this book that really pissed me off

00:06:09.260 was this interview that Oprah gave one day

00:06:13.480 and she said that luck had nothing to do with her success,

00:06:17.200 that it was a lot of hard work, a lot of other things,

00:06:20.980 but that luck had absolutely zero to do with it

00:06:24.140 and that she thought the word luck should be taken out of people's vocabulary,

00:06:27.840 that it was a word that shouldn't exist.

00:06:29.360 And that really pissed me off

00:06:30.420 because you have to acknowledge how lucky you have to be

00:06:35.240 to get anywhere in life and how important of a factor it is.

00:06:40.160 And in poker, it's much more clear cut.

00:06:46.560 There's instant feedback.

00:06:49.240 It's a game.

00:06:50.400 So you're in a circumscribed environment.

00:06:52.500 So there are fewer variables.

00:06:54.600 And you can really start parsing,

00:06:57.420 okay, well, these things were the result of my decision.

00:06:59.860 This is something I did.

00:07:00.880 This is what I thought.

00:07:02.080 These were the variables I took into consideration.

00:07:03.980 And here's what happened.

00:07:05.900 What do I control?

00:07:07.160 I control my thought process.

00:07:08.840 I control what I choose to do,

00:07:10.960 how I choose to play my hand,

00:07:12.600 how I choose to react,

00:07:14.280 how I choose to act.

00:07:15.480 I don't control the cards.

00:07:17.600 I don't control what's dealt to anyone.

00:07:19.700 I don't control the cards that are coming from the deck.

00:07:21.980 That's luck.

00:07:23.260 And so it becomes a way of clarifying the difference

00:07:27.800 and of being able to separate

00:07:30.360 if you want to improve and become a good player.

00:07:32.440 And if you don't,

00:07:34.280 you're going to lose all your money.

00:07:35.620 So it's actually,

00:07:36.420 you're very incentivized to think clearly.

00:07:38.940 It becomes a way of separating the process,

00:07:41.400 which is skill,

00:07:42.520 from the outcome,

00:07:43.600 which is chance,

00:07:44.440 which is luck.

00:07:45.280 And the two things are not one and the same.

00:07:47.980 In real life,

00:07:48.780 we tend to look at the outcome

00:07:50.280 and use it as a proxy for process.

00:07:52.920 If the outcome is good,

00:07:53.740 we're like,

00:07:54.000 oh yeah, great.

00:07:54.620 I made the right decision.

00:07:55.560 If it's bad,

00:07:56.000 we say,

00:07:56.320 oh, okay,

00:07:57.240 something went wrong.

00:07:58.740 But that's not true.

00:07:59.580 You can make the right decision.

00:08:01.480 You can think clearly,

00:08:02.440 do everything correctly,

00:08:03.300 and get unlucky.

00:08:04.860 And vice versa,

00:08:05.520 you can be absolutely wrong,

00:08:08.060 act for all the wrong reasons,

00:08:10.100 and really luck out

00:08:11.660 and have a good outcome.

00:08:13.280 Poker teaches you the difference

00:08:14.880 between the two

00:08:15.820 and teaches you that,

00:08:17.460 yes,

00:08:17.860 you have to be very,

00:08:18.960 very skilled.

00:08:19.960 And over time,

00:08:20.940 the most skilled players will win.

00:08:23.520 But in the short term,

00:08:24.820 luck is huge.

00:08:25.860 And you also have to get lucky

00:08:27.240 if you're going to win immediately.

00:08:30.060 So, I mean,

00:08:30.400 your PhD in psychology

00:08:32.840 was bringing this in.

00:08:33.540 Isn't this idea that

00:08:34.340 whenever we misattribute something

00:08:36.960 to our skill or luck,

00:08:38.680 is that part of the fundamental

00:08:40.420 attribution error?

00:08:42.220 That can be, yeah,

00:08:43.640 because the fundamental attribution error

00:08:45.400 deals with attributing something

00:08:47.580 to environment versus person

00:08:49.180 or the other way around.

00:08:51.000 And it turns out that

00:08:52.380 depending on what society

00:08:54.300 you grow up in,

00:08:55.280 you have people tend to

00:08:57.720 judge other people incorrectly.

00:09:00.660 So, in the U.S.,

00:09:01.820 we often blame the person

00:09:03.260 for something

00:09:04.400 that's really the environment

00:09:05.720 because we live in a country

00:09:07.260 where it's the American dream

00:09:09.220 and individualism

00:09:10.400 and all this stuff.

00:09:11.760 But in Eastern cultures,

00:09:13.700 a lot of the cultures

00:09:15.400 that are more community-based,

00:09:17.440 people actually often

00:09:18.200 misattribute things

00:09:18.980 to the environment

00:09:19.600 rather than the person.

00:09:21.020 So, originally,

00:09:21.860 the original work

00:09:22.620 on the fundamental attribution error

00:09:24.340 was all about

00:09:25.380 misattributing to the person,

00:09:27.040 but it's only because

00:09:28.140 it was only done

00:09:29.000 in the United States.

00:09:30.100 And then people realized

00:09:31.220 that it actually had

00:09:32.420 much more to do

00:09:33.220 with cultural biases

00:09:35.180 and cultural ways of thinking

00:09:38.300 than it did

00:09:38.940 with a fundamental thing

00:09:40.440 that the human mind did.

00:09:41.560 So, it's something

00:09:42.020 that we're really socialized to do,

00:09:44.340 but it is a bias

00:09:45.400 and it's something

00:09:46.040 that happens

00:09:46.900 very automatically,

00:09:48.780 especially when

00:09:49.280 we're judging others.

00:09:50.600 Now, when it comes

00:09:51.200 to ourselves,

00:09:51.920 it's no longer

00:09:52.840 the fundamental attribution error.

00:09:54.820 That's really about

00:09:55.480 perceiving other people.

00:09:57.700 It's about something

00:09:58.640 that is known

00:10:00.020 as locus of control,

00:10:01.780 which is work

00:10:02.720 that was done

00:10:03.240 by Julian Rotter

00:10:04.260 in the 50s.

00:10:05.900 And he found

00:10:08.020 that people differ

00:10:09.500 in how they describe

00:10:11.800 what's happening to them.

00:10:14.340 Some people

00:10:15.120 who have an internal locus,

00:10:17.040 they think

00:10:17.740 that they have agency

00:10:19.040 and that they're

00:10:19.860 the ones in control

00:10:20.860 and so they're the ones

00:10:21.960 who are actually doing things.

00:10:24.560 And then,

00:10:25.100 if you have an external locus,

00:10:26.520 you see the world

00:10:27.340 and things that's happening

00:10:28.300 to you.

00:10:29.520 So, things are happening

00:10:31.360 and they're outside

00:10:32.540 of your control.

00:10:33.480 They're in the environment.

00:10:35.540 And we don't always

00:10:37.220 have an internal

00:10:37.920 or an external locus.

00:10:39.140 He found that people

00:10:39.760 switch their loci

00:10:40.760 depending on what's happening.

00:10:42.820 Some people,

00:10:43.320 when it's good,

00:10:44.260 have an internal locus.

00:10:45.320 When it's bad,

00:10:45.880 have an external locus.

00:10:47.060 Some people,

00:10:47.600 it's flipped.

00:10:49.580 And it's a really,

00:10:51.280 really interesting way

00:10:52.540 of learning

00:10:54.060 about how someone

00:10:55.280 views the world,

00:10:56.600 how someone

00:10:57.020 views themselves,

00:10:58.120 how they view chance,

00:10:59.460 how they view skill,

00:11:00.980 how they view the role

00:11:02.220 that they have

00:11:03.020 in their own success

00:11:04.240 and in their own decisions.

00:11:07.900 So, when you decided

00:11:08.500 to learn poker,

00:11:10.180 the first decision

00:11:10.960 you had to make

00:11:11.360 was what kind of poker

00:11:12.320 you're going to play.

00:11:12.760 Because there's different

00:11:13.140 types of poker out there.

00:11:14.140 There's stud.

00:11:14.980 You went with

00:11:15.600 No Limit Texas Hold'em.

00:11:17.780 Why do you think

00:11:18.380 that's a great

00:11:19.500 type of poker

00:11:20.580 to explore this

00:11:21.380 intersection between

00:11:22.100 skill and luck?

00:11:23.560 Well, first of all,

00:11:25.200 Hold'em has

00:11:26.240 a really precise balance

00:11:27.760 of known

00:11:29.260 to unknown

00:11:30.280 information.

00:11:30.920 And this wasn't

00:11:31.980 an insight that I came

00:11:33.120 to on my own.

00:11:34.040 This was game theory

00:11:35.320 teaching me

00:11:36.020 that you need to

00:11:37.440 really create

00:11:38.300 an environment

00:11:38.860 that mirrors

00:11:40.240 how we normally

00:11:41.820 make decisions.

00:11:42.640 And in some forms

00:11:44.100 of poker,

00:11:44.860 there are way

00:11:46.100 too many

00:11:46.720 unknown variables.

00:11:47.580 So, you have

00:11:48.040 like five cards

00:11:49.120 or six cards

00:11:50.360 or however many cards

00:11:51.400 that are known

00:11:52.660 only to the person

00:11:53.620 holding them.

00:11:54.640 And then it becomes

00:11:55.200 too much of a guessing game.

00:11:56.380 It becomes too much

00:11:57.360 about luck

00:11:58.140 because there's

00:11:59.240 way too much

00:12:00.000 unknown

00:12:00.440 and it's very difficult

00:12:01.620 to parse

00:12:02.940 all of those variables.

00:12:04.560 On the flip side,

00:12:05.460 you have variants

00:12:06.420 of poker

00:12:06.760 where there's

00:12:07.160 just one whole card

00:12:08.100 which is the private

00:12:08.860 information

00:12:09.420 that only the player knows.

00:12:10.760 And that becomes

00:12:12.320 too much like chess

00:12:13.220 because there's

00:12:13.920 too little

00:12:14.800 unknown information.

00:12:16.400 So, that becomes

00:12:16.960 much more solvable

00:12:18.200 and so also

00:12:19.600 not as useful.

00:12:20.920 And then in Hold'em,

00:12:21.700 there are two

00:12:22.340 whole cards,

00:12:23.860 the private cards.

00:12:25.580 And von Neumann

00:12:26.840 and his followers

00:12:27.820 found that that

00:12:28.960 seemed to best

00:12:30.300 mimic the balance

00:12:31.620 of known

00:12:32.520 and unknowns

00:12:33.320 that we experience

00:12:35.200 in most strategic

00:12:36.120 decisions in life.

00:12:37.820 And then the element

00:12:39.140 of no limit

00:12:40.040 versus limit

00:12:40.760 is very important

00:12:42.580 because in a limit game

00:12:44.160 you are limited

00:12:45.440 as the name implies

00:12:46.720 in how much

00:12:47.520 you can wager

00:12:48.200 at any given point.

00:12:49.860 And that's not life.

00:12:50.940 In life,

00:12:51.340 there are never limits.

00:12:52.380 You can always do

00:12:53.120 what you want

00:12:53.760 theoretically.

00:12:55.000 Sure,

00:12:55.300 you know,

00:12:55.500 there are laws,

00:12:56.220 there are norms

00:12:56.660 of behavior,

00:12:57.240 but nothing's stopping

00:12:58.360 you from risking

00:12:59.160 anything and everything

00:13:00.720 on any given decision.

00:13:02.460 And so,

00:13:02.900 no limit

00:13:03.380 is the variant

00:13:04.460 that best mirrors

00:13:05.680 that element

00:13:06.360 in life

00:13:07.320 because in no limit,

00:13:08.560 there's no limit

00:13:09.580 placed on what

00:13:10.280 you can wager.

00:13:11.160 You can wager

00:13:11.680 all of your money,

00:13:13.100 you can wager

00:13:13.540 everything

00:13:14.180 at any given

00:13:15.280 point in time.

00:13:16.680 And so,

00:13:17.060 when you're looking

00:13:17.640 at decision making

00:13:18.580 that you want

00:13:20.060 to use

00:13:20.940 as a proxy

00:13:23.280 or a model

00:13:24.900 or a laboratory

00:13:25.880 environment

00:13:26.580 for making

00:13:27.380 decisions in life,

00:13:29.100 no limit

00:13:29.460 is a really good way

00:13:30.740 of looking at it

00:13:31.720 because life

00:13:33.320 really is a game

00:13:34.000 of no limit.

00:13:34.580 And there's also

00:13:35.620 types of Texas Hold'em

00:13:36.820 that you talk about

00:13:37.380 there's a distinction

00:13:37.980 between cash games

00:13:38.960 and tournament games.

00:13:41.260 For sure.

00:13:42.140 And that probably

00:13:42.880 revealed my bias

00:13:44.160 in the book.

00:13:45.160 Right.

00:13:45.860 But what's the difference

00:13:47.260 and how do you think

00:13:47.880 it influences

00:13:48.600 how people

00:13:49.700 play the game?

00:13:51.800 Yeah,

00:13:52.200 it's actually

00:13:53.140 a very different game.

00:13:54.240 And at the beginning

00:13:54.760 when I was just starting out,

00:13:55.880 my coach,

00:13:56.360 Eric Seidel,

00:13:57.100 said that I needed

00:13:58.300 to choose one

00:13:59.180 because

00:13:59.500 if I was going

00:14:01.320 to really focus

00:14:02.460 on playing well

00:14:04.340 and on being

00:14:06.000 really,

00:14:06.520 really good

00:14:06.960 at one thing,

00:14:08.940 I couldn't

00:14:09.620 both do tournaments

00:14:10.820 and cash games

00:14:11.940 because the strategy

00:14:13.240 was so different.

00:14:14.680 The main difference

00:14:15.820 is that

00:14:16.380 in a cash game,

00:14:17.740 so when you think

00:14:18.620 of poker

00:14:18.980 that you see

00:14:19.620 on TV

00:14:20.320 in movies

00:14:21.580 and, you know,

00:14:22.860 the James Bond films,

00:14:24.180 Rounders,

00:14:24.700 that's all cash games.

00:14:26.400 And what that means

00:14:27.400 is that

00:14:27.720 every single chip

00:14:29.020 has an actual

00:14:30.200 dollar value.

00:14:31.500 So say you sit down

00:14:32.420 at the table

00:14:32.880 and you buy in

00:14:34.240 for $100,

00:14:35.260 you put $100

00:14:36.080 on the table

00:14:36.740 and you say,

00:14:37.340 I want to play,

00:14:38.060 you'll get $100

00:14:39.280 worth of chips

00:14:40.580 and each chip

00:14:41.860 will be worth

00:14:42.540 some exact amount

00:14:44.080 and that amount

00:14:45.880 will never change.

00:14:47.640 And if you lose

00:14:48.560 that $100,

00:14:49.440 you can say,

00:14:49.880 I want more,

00:14:50.640 you know,

00:14:51.000 bring me more money,

00:14:52.100 I want more chips.

00:14:53.480 And you can get up

00:14:54.840 at any point you want,

00:14:55.840 you can stop playing

00:14:56.620 at any point you want

00:14:57.580 and the bet sizes

00:14:59.960 are always going

00:15:00.860 to be the same.

00:15:01.840 The blinds,

00:15:02.920 which are the blind bets

00:15:03.900 that people have to make

00:15:05.100 just to force action

00:15:06.760 so that you're not

00:15:08.000 sitting at a table

00:15:08.680 where everyone

00:15:09.160 is just folding

00:15:09.780 every single hand.

00:15:11.020 It's just kind of

00:15:11.560 the minimum table stakes.

00:15:13.300 Those are always

00:15:13.920 going to be the same.

00:15:15.000 So if you sit down

00:15:15.940 at a game

00:15:16.500 of 1-2,

00:15:17.840 which means

00:15:18.260 the small blind

00:15:19.040 is $1

00:15:19.480 and the big blind

00:15:20.160 is $2,

00:15:20.780 that's what it's always

00:15:21.780 going to be

00:15:22.440 the entire time

00:15:23.560 you're there.

00:15:25.100 Tournaments

00:15:25.460 are completely different.

00:15:27.920 The chips

00:15:28.320 have zero cash value.

00:15:30.320 They're only there

00:15:31.760 as a way

00:15:32.500 of keeping score

00:15:33.540 and your goal

00:15:34.880 is actually

00:15:35.440 to win the tournament

00:15:36.740 and that means

00:15:37.620 to gather

00:15:38.080 all of the chips

00:15:38.920 and play.

00:15:39.800 So say you buy in

00:15:40.660 for that same $100.

00:15:42.520 In the traditional

00:15:43.500 tournament format,

00:15:44.380 which is called

00:15:44.780 a freeze-out,

00:15:45.920 if you lose,

00:15:46.820 you're out.

00:15:47.620 If you lose

00:15:48.160 that $100 buy-in,

00:15:50.580 you can't buy back,

00:15:51.660 you can't do anything,

00:15:53.260 you walk away,

00:15:54.160 you've busted

00:15:54.780 in poker terms

00:15:56.120 and you might

00:15:57.360 get 100 chips,

00:15:58.720 you might get

00:15:59.020 1,000 chips,

00:15:59.780 you might get

00:16:00.080 10,000 chips

00:16:00.800 for that $100.

00:16:02.040 It doesn't really matter.

00:16:03.040 Every single person

00:16:03.780 gets the exact

00:16:04.740 same amount

00:16:05.820 of chips

00:16:06.380 and then the people

00:16:07.800 who end up

00:16:08.260 accumulating more chips

00:16:09.440 are doing better

00:16:10.700 than the ones

00:16:11.260 who are losing chips

00:16:12.160 but it's just

00:16:12.860 a way of keeping score

00:16:14.000 and you can't

00:16:15.000 walk away

00:16:15.500 at any given

00:16:16.060 point in time.

00:16:16.880 You can't top up,

00:16:17.960 you can't stop playing,

00:16:19.380 you have to just

00:16:20.220 keep going

00:16:20.920 and the stakes

00:16:22.180 keep rising.

00:16:23.300 So if at the beginning

00:16:23.940 you sat down

00:16:24.560 and it was 1,2

00:16:25.540 in half an hour

00:16:27.020 it's going to be

00:16:27.560 5,10

00:16:28.420 and then it's going

00:16:29.020 to be 10,20

00:16:29.800 and your chips

00:16:30.760 become less

00:16:31.760 and less valuable

00:16:32.580 as that happens

00:16:33.480 because their

00:16:34.580 betting power

00:16:36.160 diminishes

00:16:37.020 as the blinds go up

00:16:38.700 and so it's much

00:16:39.600 more dynamic,

00:16:40.500 it's much more

00:16:41.260 of a drama,

00:16:42.040 there's a beginning,

00:16:42.900 there's a middle,

00:16:43.580 there's an end,

00:16:44.660 the strategy changes

00:16:45.900 as the different

00:16:46.580 parts of the tournament

00:16:47.640 progress

00:16:48.280 and it's much

00:16:49.520 more lifelike

00:16:50.760 in that

00:16:51.280 it puts you

00:16:52.560 in so many

00:16:53.300 different

00:16:53.860 emotional situations,

00:16:55.280 it puts you

00:16:56.380 to so many

00:16:57.980 different tests

00:16:58.860 that you're

00:16:59.880 not going

00:17:00.280 to necessarily

00:17:00.980 experience

00:17:01.800 in a cash game.

00:17:03.880 So one thing

00:17:04.820 you talk about,

00:17:06.120 well we've already

00:17:06.720 talked about it

00:17:07.160 a little bit,

00:17:08.060 poker,

00:17:08.560 gambling,

00:17:09.620 it's very

00:17:10.560 like philosophers

00:17:12.140 or economists

00:17:13.340 or game theorists

00:17:14.520 have used this

00:17:15.020 to explore

00:17:15.580 decision making

00:17:16.360 but you see

00:17:17.160 this intersection

00:17:18.640 of philosophy

00:17:19.500 and gambling

00:17:21.280 going back

00:17:22.160 centuries.

00:17:23.120 I mean you can

00:17:23.700 even make the

00:17:24.100 case that

00:17:24.520 poker was

00:17:25.200 invented by

00:17:25.880 a philosopher

00:17:26.440 trying to

00:17:26.980 explore

00:17:27.420 probability.

00:17:29.500 I mean and

00:17:29.980 even Kant,

00:17:30.800 like the guy

00:17:31.500 who came up

00:17:32.980 with his

00:17:33.420 Kantian duty

00:17:34.140 stuff,

00:17:34.980 he talked about

00:17:35.760 like that

00:17:36.280 betting,

00:17:37.220 adding stakes

00:17:37.900 can actually

00:17:38.540 help us

00:17:38.940 make better

00:17:39.640 decisions.

00:17:40.620 Can you

00:17:40.820 talk a little

00:17:41.420 bit about

00:17:41.600 the intersection

00:17:42.140 of philosophy

00:17:42.800 and game

00:17:43.180 because I

00:17:43.380 thought that

00:17:43.560 was really

00:17:43.880 interesting.

00:17:44.300 I found it

00:17:45.740 absolutely

00:17:46.240 fascinating as

00:17:47.140 well that

00:17:48.060 so many

00:17:48.840 great minds

00:17:49.560 were drawn

00:17:50.280 to poker

00:17:50.780 and the

00:17:51.620 first person

00:17:52.200 you mentioned

00:17:52.800 Cardano,

00:17:54.380 he was

00:17:55.220 this

00:17:55.860 fascinating

00:17:57.080 Italian

00:17:57.680 character

00:17:58.520 who was

00:17:59.580 a philosopher,

00:18:00.600 he was

00:18:01.480 an economist,

00:18:02.280 he had all

00:18:02.840 sorts of

00:18:03.200 interesting

00:18:03.540 theories and

00:18:04.280 he had

00:18:04.780 what may

00:18:05.880 be the

00:18:06.460 earliest

00:18:06.840 description

00:18:07.360 of the

00:18:07.740 game that

00:18:08.140 would become

00:18:08.760 poker and

00:18:10.080 he's also

00:18:10.680 in some

00:18:11.080 ways the

00:18:11.480 father of

00:18:11.940 probability

00:18:12.400 theory

00:18:12.880 because

00:18:13.660 in playing

00:18:14.780 poker he

00:18:15.580 realized that

00:18:17.380 the way to

00:18:18.540 win wasn't

00:18:19.760 to consult

00:18:20.700 the stars

00:18:21.480 or the

00:18:22.060 soil and

00:18:23.280 he was

00:18:23.880 living at

00:18:24.240 a time

00:18:24.540 where this

00:18:25.200 was the

00:18:25.740 way to

00:18:26.200 go,

00:18:26.880 where

00:18:27.300 astrology

00:18:28.040 was the

00:18:28.900 science of

00:18:29.760 the day

00:18:30.200 and people

00:18:31.460 really did

00:18:32.120 make decisions

00:18:33.440 based on

00:18:34.000 just consulting

00:18:35.160 that and

00:18:35.780 that was the

00:18:36.640 way to play

00:18:37.260 anything,

00:18:38.200 that was the

00:18:38.500 way to play

00:18:38.880 life.

00:18:39.840 And he

00:18:40.340 realized after

00:18:41.840 he started

00:18:42.320 losing money

00:18:43.020 and after

00:18:43.480 someone

00:18:43.800 cheated

00:18:44.180 him out

00:18:44.600 of a

00:18:44.800 lot of

00:18:45.080 money,

00:18:45.920 that hey,

00:18:47.220 there's a

00:18:47.780 way to

00:18:48.160 actually beat

00:18:49.060 these guys

00:18:49.820 and it

00:18:51.320 has to do

00:18:51.940 with cards,

00:18:53.260 the number

00:18:53.720 of cards,

00:18:54.400 it has to

00:18:54.840 do with

00:18:55.200 the probabilities,

00:18:56.140 it has to

00:18:56.600 do with

00:18:56.900 the math,

00:18:57.880 it has to

00:18:58.420 do with

00:18:58.800 the information

00:18:59.380 that you

00:18:59.840 can actually

00:19:00.420 use that's

00:19:01.760 concrete.

00:19:03.120 And so

00:19:03.420 he started,

00:19:04.560 basically he

00:19:05.100 invented

00:19:05.520 probability in

00:19:06.920 order to win

00:19:07.760 at a game

00:19:08.240 of cards.

00:19:09.340 And he

00:19:10.120 was incentivized

00:19:11.020 to do

00:19:11.320 it because

00:19:11.700 he'd lost

00:19:12.440 so much

00:19:13.060 money.

00:19:14.360 And so

00:19:14.640 this really,

00:19:16.580 this formed

00:19:17.920 not just an

00:19:19.220 incentive,

00:19:20.660 but kind of

00:19:21.260 this eye-opening

00:19:22.660 epiphany for

00:19:23.660 him.

00:19:24.540 Obviously,

00:19:25.160 you know,

00:19:25.340 I'm putting

00:19:25.940 moments in

00:19:27.280 his mind that

00:19:27.920 I don't know

00:19:28.340 if they actually

00:19:28.840 existed,

00:19:29.380 but that's the

00:19:30.200 sense that I

00:19:30.840 got,

00:19:31.500 that he all

00:19:32.460 of a sudden

00:19:32.840 realized,

00:19:33.920 wow,

00:19:34.520 there's a

00:19:35.700 whole new

00:19:36.100 way of

00:19:36.480 looking at

00:19:36.840 the world.

00:19:37.560 There's a

00:19:37.840 whole new

00:19:38.240 way of

00:19:38.580 making

00:19:38.820 decisions.

00:19:40.180 And the

00:19:40.560 reason that

00:19:41.220 I'm coming

00:19:41.660 to this

00:19:42.060 conclusion is

00:19:43.100 because of

00:19:43.600 this game.

00:19:44.720 And I

00:19:45.260 see this

00:19:45.880 because I'm

00:19:46.580 losing,

00:19:47.120 because I'm

00:19:48.080 losing money,

00:19:49.120 because I

00:19:49.460 lost my

00:19:49.920 clothes,

00:19:50.400 because this

00:19:50.880 guy completely

00:19:52.240 obliterated

00:19:53.120 me.

00:19:53.860 And so

00:19:54.120 now I'm

00:19:55.340 actually very

00:19:56.660 motivated to

00:19:57.900 figure out how

00:19:59.180 I can

00:19:59.660 consistently win.

00:20:01.020 And he

00:20:01.560 did.

00:20:02.280 And it was

00:20:02.840 very funny

00:20:03.340 though.

00:20:03.780 He lamented

00:20:05.280 that the

00:20:05.580 only way to

00:20:06.100 really win

00:20:06.660 consistently was

00:20:07.420 to cheat.

00:20:08.800 And then he

00:20:09.420 has this

00:20:09.820 whole big

00:20:10.580 part of his

00:20:11.080 book about

00:20:11.480 cheating and

00:20:12.080 about how

00:20:12.600 to mark

00:20:13.640 cards and

00:20:14.500 figure out if

00:20:15.360 someone is

00:20:15.840 marking decks

00:20:16.660 and dice and

00:20:17.480 all of these

00:20:18.020 things.

00:20:18.720 And that's

00:20:19.180 true.

00:20:19.560 And that's

00:20:19.900 such a

00:20:20.480 profound insight

00:20:21.360 in both

00:20:21.740 probability and

00:20:22.800 philosophy and

00:20:23.800 life that the

00:20:25.860 only way to

00:20:26.600 get certainty is

00:20:27.660 to rig the

00:20:28.120 deck, is to

00:20:28.780 actually cheat.

00:20:29.840 Because otherwise

00:20:30.700 life is

00:20:31.620 probabilistic.

00:20:32.800 Decision-making

00:20:33.520 is probabilistic.

00:20:35.460 We can never

00:20:36.380 know with 100%

00:20:37.820 certainty that

00:20:38.780 we're going to

00:20:39.420 win.

00:20:39.960 All we can

00:20:40.600 do is make

00:20:41.420 the probabilistically

00:20:42.520 best decision to

00:20:43.940 put ourselves in

00:20:45.320 a position to

00:20:46.160 win.

00:20:46.820 And that's a

00:20:48.040 statement that

00:20:48.500 can really be the

00:20:49.340 foundation of a

00:20:50.600 lot of

00:20:50.900 philosophical

00:20:51.400 thought.

00:20:52.420 And it

00:20:52.620 really makes

00:20:54.280 you realize

00:20:55.020 that, yeah, we

00:20:55.640 do have a

00:20:56.760 great amount of

00:20:57.380 agency, much

00:20:58.020 greater than we

00:20:58.720 thought.

00:20:59.340 You don't have to

00:21:00.080 trust in the

00:21:00.600 stars.

00:21:00.960 You can actually

00:21:01.380 start figuring

00:21:02.000 things out and

00:21:02.760 figuring out how

00:21:03.760 you can use

00:21:04.300 information that's

00:21:05.100 available to make

00:21:05.940 better decisions.

00:21:07.480 And yet, there's

00:21:08.960 going to be the

00:21:10.200 stuff that you

00:21:10.700 can't control.

00:21:12.040 And unless you're

00:21:12.640 willing to cheat,

00:21:13.700 you're never going

00:21:14.480 to be in a

00:21:14.960 situation where you

00:21:15.860 are guaranteed a

00:21:17.380 certain outcome,

00:21:18.100 where you're

00:21:18.480 guaranteed to

00:21:19.720 win.

00:21:20.020 And I was

00:21:21.900 really struck by

00:21:24.380 the fact that

00:21:25.240 this thread

00:21:26.500 seemed to

00:21:27.120 continue throughout

00:21:27.920 philosophy.

00:21:28.680 As you say,

00:21:29.620 Kant also

00:21:30.840 played cards and

00:21:32.100 was a gambler.

00:21:33.420 And he has

00:21:35.160 this really

00:21:36.160 amazing passage

00:21:37.920 where he talks

00:21:39.400 about betting

00:21:40.740 and this thing

00:21:42.140 that people

00:21:42.740 really shudder,

00:21:44.640 the reason why

00:21:45.340 my Russian

00:21:45.820 grandmother hated

00:21:46.720 what I was doing

00:21:47.540 when I decided to

00:21:48.760 play poker,

00:21:49.380 because I'm

00:21:50.120 wagering money

00:21:50.900 and this is

00:21:51.440 sinful,

00:21:51.900 this is terrible.

00:21:52.680 Kant said,

00:21:53.020 no, this isn't

00:21:53.540 sinful, this is

00:21:54.300 the best teaching

00:21:55.000 tool I have

00:21:55.580 ever found.

00:21:56.660 And this

00:21:56.940 actually rights

00:21:57.820 a lot of the

00:21:58.520 wrongs that you

00:21:59.180 see in the

00:21:59.620 world, where

00:22:01.040 people are way

00:22:01.820 too overconfident,

00:22:03.040 overstate their

00:22:03.660 opinions, and

00:22:05.080 just spout BS

00:22:06.920 without pausing

00:22:08.200 to consider,

00:22:09.440 should I really

00:22:10.900 be saying this?

00:22:11.820 How certain

00:22:12.500 am I?

00:22:12.980 How right am

00:22:13.640 I?

00:22:13.840 What he added

00:22:16.080 to this

00:22:16.660 conversation was

00:22:17.700 that betting

00:22:19.180 is the key

00:22:19.920 reason why

00:22:21.300 we're able

00:22:21.840 to improve.

00:22:23.480 And he has

00:22:24.520 this wonderful

00:22:25.040 example of a

00:22:25.800 doctor who's

00:22:26.880 making a

00:22:27.300 diagnosis.

00:22:28.220 And you have

00:22:28.500 to remember

00:22:28.880 that medicine

00:22:29.960 even to this

00:22:30.660 day is certainly

00:22:31.760 not a precise

00:22:32.640 science.

00:22:33.940 There's a lot

00:22:34.400 more science

00:22:34.940 to it than

00:22:35.420 in Kant's

00:22:35.940 day, but

00:22:36.740 there's never

00:22:37.660 certainty.

00:22:38.660 And back then

00:22:39.320 there was much

00:22:40.160 less certainty

00:22:40.880 and we knew

00:22:41.840 a lot less

00:22:42.360 about the

00:22:42.720 human body.

00:22:43.900 So a lot

00:22:44.220 of diagnoses

00:22:44.940 weren't

00:22:45.860 necessarily

00:22:46.540 definitive.

00:22:47.960 And he said,

00:22:48.400 well, if you

00:22:49.280 go to a

00:22:50.200 doctor's office

00:22:51.040 and the

00:22:51.880 doctor gives

00:22:52.480 you a

00:22:52.740 diagnosis,

00:22:53.380 they don't

00:22:53.680 say, I'm

00:22:54.160 not sure,

00:22:55.300 usually.

00:22:56.460 They'll just

00:22:57.120 say, this is

00:22:57.760 what's wrong,

00:22:58.420 this is what

00:22:58.840 you should

00:22:59.160 do.

00:22:59.920 He said, so

00:23:00.440 why don't

00:23:01.220 we force

00:23:02.060 doctors to

00:23:03.080 actually put

00:23:03.960 money on

00:23:04.920 their diagnoses,

00:23:06.100 put money

00:23:06.580 behind their

00:23:07.400 opinions?

00:23:08.500 How much

00:23:08.920 are you willing

00:23:09.360 to bet that

00:23:09.900 your diagnosis

00:23:10.460 is correct?

00:23:11.820 $10, I'll

00:23:13.080 put it into

00:23:14.240 our currency,

00:23:15.260 $100,000,

00:23:16.240 $10,000.

00:23:17.680 And what he

00:23:19.080 notices is that

00:23:20.260 when you start

00:23:21.060 forcing people to

00:23:22.120 put real money

00:23:23.340 on what they're

00:23:24.480 saying, suddenly

00:23:26.180 they start

00:23:27.160 recalibrating

00:23:28.300 their certainty.

00:23:29.560 Suddenly, they're

00:23:30.640 willing to admit

00:23:31.580 that they might

00:23:32.300 be wrong, that

00:23:33.480 they're not

00:23:34.080 100% certain.

00:23:35.540 Even though

00:23:35.960 five minutes

00:23:36.440 before, they

00:23:37.060 were going on

00:23:37.800 and on about

00:23:38.360 how, yes, this

00:23:39.120 is definitely

00:23:39.660 it, this is

00:23:40.280 the only

00:23:40.620 thing possible,

00:23:41.840 all of a sudden

00:23:42.340 they're like, okay,

00:23:43.000 well, maybe, you

00:23:43.820 know, I don't

00:23:44.840 know, maybe I

00:23:45.420 won't bet even

00:23:46.260 $100, maybe I'm

00:23:47.940 only $50 certain,

00:23:49.080 maybe I'm only

00:23:49.540 $10 certain, and

00:23:50.820 it forces you to

00:23:52.500 realize that

00:23:54.940 there's a lot

00:23:56.760 of variables,

00:23:58.540 there are a lot

00:23:59.160 of things that

00:23:59.920 you don't know,

00:24:01.280 and you have to

00:24:02.660 actually be willing

00:24:03.500 to literally put

00:24:05.020 your money where

00:24:05.640 your mouth is,

00:24:06.560 and that's a

00:24:07.320 powerful teaching

00:24:08.140 mechanism.

00:24:08.640 It's a powerful

00:24:09.440 mechanism of

00:24:10.720 honing your

00:24:11.740 thought process

00:24:12.660 and of being

00:24:14.240 less hubristic,

00:24:15.380 of actually being

00:24:16.300 humble and

00:24:17.180 realizing that,

00:24:18.160 wow, a lot of

00:24:19.500 the things that

00:24:20.340 I say so

00:24:22.100 confidently, maybe

00:24:23.400 I should be a

00:24:24.040 little less

00:24:24.420 confident in

00:24:25.120 them.

00:24:25.920 Maybe I should

00:24:26.560 actually stop and

00:24:27.760 consider that I

00:24:29.160 might be wrong,

00:24:30.080 and I think that

00:24:31.040 that's a very

00:24:31.620 powerful lesson in

00:24:32.780 the modern world.

00:24:33.640 We're going to

00:24:34.740 take a quick

00:24:35.020 break for your

00:24:35.520 word from our

00:24:35.900 sponsors, and

00:24:38.320 now back to

00:24:39.020 the show.

00:24:40.220 Well, speaking of

00:24:41.140 probabilities, so

00:24:42.060 poker, you're

00:24:42.720 having to calculate

00:24:43.380 probabilities, but

00:24:44.260 the problem with

00:24:44.840 probabilities is the

00:24:45.760 human brain isn't

00:24:47.180 designed to

00:24:48.260 calculate.

00:24:48.840 I mean, it took a

00:24:49.520 guy in the

00:24:50.020 Renaissance to

00:24:51.360 finally develop

00:24:52.240 probabilistic

00:24:52.880 thinking, so

00:24:54.180 we've only been

00:24:54.600 doing it for, I

00:24:55.580 mean, sort of

00:24:56.160 concretely or

00:24:57.500 explicitly for a

00:24:59.220 few centuries.

00:25:01.420 Here's a perfect

00:25:02.100 example of why

00:25:02.720 we're bad at

00:25:03.280 probabilistic

00:25:04.160 thinking.

00:25:04.540 So if someone

00:25:04.960 hears I do

00:25:05.520 this too, it's

00:25:06.040 like, oh, there's

00:25:06.840 a 75% chance this

00:25:08.020 is going to

00:25:08.320 happen.

00:25:09.160 I interpret it

00:25:09.840 as, oh, yeah,

00:25:10.380 it's pretty much

00:25:11.140 going to happen.

00:25:11.980 It's more than

00:25:12.680 50%, so it's

00:25:13.540 going to happen,

00:25:14.100 but that's not

00:25:14.720 the case.

00:25:15.780 Why are we so

00:25:16.520 bad at

00:25:17.460 probabilities, and

00:25:18.260 how did you get

00:25:18.880 better at thinking

00:25:19.680 probabilistically?

00:25:21.780 That's a really

00:25:22.660 important question

00:25:23.480 because it is one

00:25:24.740 of the biggest

00:25:25.240 shortcomings of our

00:25:27.180 decision abilities.

00:25:28.560 The fact that,

00:25:29.180 yeah, we look at

00:25:29.860 75% and we just

00:25:31.440 round it up.

00:25:32.720 Because the

00:25:33.640 human mind really

00:25:34.620 loves certainty and

00:25:36.480 really loves just

00:25:37.360 black and white,

00:25:38.280 clear-cut answers,

00:25:39.380 cause and effect,

00:25:40.160 this is what's

00:25:40.620 going to happen, and

00:25:41.580 doesn't like uncertainty

00:25:42.700 and doesn't like

00:25:43.420 ambiguity and doesn't

00:25:45.020 do well with it.

00:25:46.180 And I think from an

00:25:47.120 evolutionary standpoint,

00:25:48.740 it makes all sorts

00:25:49.860 of sense that we

00:25:50.900 would take drastic

00:25:52.220 conclusions from the

00:25:53.660 environment.

00:25:54.580 It turns out that

00:25:55.520 that's the way that

00:25:56.400 we learn.

00:25:56.920 We learn from

00:25:57.440 doing, we learn

00:25:58.160 from experience, we

00:25:59.460 don't learn from

00:26:00.540 descriptions, from

00:26:01.500 people telling us

00:26:02.340 something, and

00:26:03.400 hearing 75%, that's

00:26:05.440 a description.

00:26:06.460 Whereas, oh, this

00:26:07.760 happened to me, that's

00:26:09.240 experience.

00:26:10.100 But unfortunately, in

00:26:11.780 real life, our

00:26:12.640 experiences are

00:26:13.820 completely skewed.

00:26:14.940 So we never actually

00:26:16.240 get to feel what 75%

00:26:17.820 feels like because it

00:26:18.700 either happened or it

00:26:19.720 didn't.

00:26:20.560 And the distribution

00:26:22.100 isn't a real

00:26:23.840 probabilistic

00:26:24.620 distribution.

00:26:25.540 It's personal and

00:26:26.740 it's personalized.

00:26:27.420 And so if you think

00:26:28.720 about people

00:26:30.580 centuries ago,

00:26:32.360 thousands of years

00:26:33.120 ago, when they

00:26:35.000 encountered, say, a

00:26:36.320 tiger in a certain

00:26:37.320 location and ran

00:26:38.680 away and said, okay,

00:26:39.400 we're never going

00:26:40.040 there again, those

00:26:41.320 are the people who

00:26:41.980 survived, not the

00:26:43.260 people who are like,

00:26:44.060 well, you know, I

00:26:45.580 did the math and it

00:26:46.920 seems like the tiger

00:26:48.120 is probabilistically

00:26:49.740 only going to be

00:26:50.740 there 1% of the

00:26:52.340 time.

00:26:52.860 And so we should

00:26:54.140 really, we're safe,

00:26:55.740 we can go back.

00:26:56.440 Well, that person

00:26:57.040 might have been

00:26:57.580 eaten by a tiger.

00:26:58.680 That's not a very

00:26:59.580 smart, smart way of

00:27:01.200 reacting to the

00:27:02.060 situation in the

00:27:03.780 moment at that

00:27:04.740 time.

00:27:05.620 And so we just

00:27:06.420 never really learned

00:27:08.260 how to make the

00:27:11.060 distinction between

00:27:12.920 what happened to

00:27:13.960 us, what happens to

00:27:15.480 someone we know, and

00:27:16.880 what we just heard.

00:27:18.260 And we don't

00:27:19.840 internalize things

00:27:21.460 unless we've

00:27:22.620 experienced them or

00:27:23.620 unless someone close

00:27:24.680 to us has

00:27:25.600 experienced it.

00:27:26.960 And this is

00:27:27.400 something that has

00:27:29.080 really preoccupied me

00:27:30.440 for a long time.

00:27:31.280 It's actually, it was

00:27:32.000 the, one of the

00:27:33.120 things that I studied

00:27:33.920 when I was in

00:27:34.440 graduate school was

00:27:36.280 making decisions in

00:27:37.660 risky and uncertain

00:27:39.060 conditions.

00:27:40.240 And I really

00:27:42.000 despaired because I

00:27:43.000 saw how bad people

00:27:44.000 were and I couldn't

00:27:45.060 figure out a way

00:27:45.940 around that.

00:27:47.580 Poker is actually a

00:27:49.100 way around that.

00:27:49.940 Had I known what

00:27:50.960 poker was back when I

00:27:52.160 was in grad school, I

00:27:53.160 would have definitely

00:27:53.740 used it in my studies

00:27:55.120 because in poker

00:27:57.100 you're learning

00:27:59.620 probabilities through

00:28:01.380 experience because

00:28:02.700 you're playing and

00:28:03.720 you're actually

00:28:04.220 experiencing it

00:28:05.300 yourself and you're

00:28:07.000 getting immediate

00:28:07.600 feedback on, you

00:28:09.640 know, on what you're

00:28:10.640 doing and whether it

00:28:12.140 seems right or it

00:28:13.480 seems wrong.

00:28:14.300 You're losing money,

00:28:15.420 you're winning money,

00:28:16.300 the feedback is there,

00:28:17.660 the feedback is

00:28:18.440 constant and you're

00:28:19.560 sampling correctly.

00:28:21.620 Unlike in real life

00:28:22.760 where your experiences

00:28:23.760 are skewed and one

00:28:25.100 off, in poker you're

00:28:26.380 playing tens, hundreds,

00:28:27.900 thousands of hands and

00:28:29.400 so you actually start

00:28:30.520 feeling and of course

00:28:32.100 as you say you have to

00:28:33.400 calculate the

00:28:33.920 probabilities so if

00:28:34.880 you're just kind of

00:28:35.380 sitting there unthinkingly

00:28:36.840 you're not going to

00:28:37.400 learn a lot about this

00:28:38.700 but if you're taking it

00:28:39.540 seriously and if you've

00:28:40.740 actually calculated

00:28:41.580 certain probabilities you

00:28:42.680 start feeling what 75%

00:28:44.620 feels like, what 90%

00:28:46.280 feels like, what 98%

00:28:47.780 feels like and you start

00:28:48.700 realizing, well 75% is

00:28:50.880 very, very far from

00:28:52.400 100% because that 25%

00:28:55.800 happens often and I

00:28:57.580 made the right decision

00:28:58.360 and I got my money in as

00:28:59.580 a 75% favorite and I

00:29:01.220 lost and I lost again

00:29:02.580 and I lost again.

00:29:03.460 Wow, I lose an awful

00:29:04.720 lot at 75% favorite and

00:29:07.200 yet it's the right

00:29:08.020 decision and I should

00:29:08.860 keep doing it over and

00:29:09.980 over because I will win

00:29:12.220 more often than I lose

00:29:13.380 but I lose a lot.

00:29:15.040 You start realizing that

00:29:15.940 1% is a lot, that even

00:29:17.480 2% that all these tiny

00:29:20.340 percentages are a huge

00:29:21.860 amount of time because

00:29:23.140 if you play things out

00:29:24.260 many, many, many times

00:29:26.240 it adds up and

00:29:28.660 probability is not

00:29:30.780 evenly distributed.

00:29:32.440 It has no memory.

00:29:33.660 I think in the book I

00:29:34.260 say it has amnesia and

00:29:35.800 I think that that's the

00:29:36.540 way you need to think

00:29:37.320 about it.

00:29:38.120 It doesn't remember what

00:29:39.240 happened last time and

00:29:40.740 so there's no such thing

00:29:41.620 as fairness like, oh,

00:29:42.700 well I should win now.

00:29:44.200 No, sometimes you just

00:29:45.520 keep losing and losing

00:29:46.480 and losing and you

00:29:47.680 learn what that feels

00:29:48.600 like and that's why

00:29:51.040 poker is actually such

00:29:52.440 a powerful teaching

00:29:53.700 tool.

00:29:54.700 It teaches you not

00:29:55.820 only what these

00:29:57.240 percentages feel like

00:29:58.640 but it teaches you that

00:30:00.120 probability isn't

00:30:01.380 normally distributed,

00:30:02.820 that there's no memory

00:30:05.400 in what happens next,

00:30:07.120 that every single event

00:30:08.320 is completely independent

00:30:09.640 and those are two very,

00:30:11.260 very powerful lessons

00:30:12.360 that otherwise our brains

00:30:14.460 just are not very good

00:30:15.800 at taking in.

00:30:17.040 And to learn those

00:30:17.700 lessons about probability

00:30:19.180 through poker,

00:30:20.160 you have to actually,

00:30:20.900 you have to fail a lot

00:30:21.800 in the learning process

00:30:22.900 but failing sucks,

00:30:24.660 like losing,

00:30:25.580 I'm sure a lot of money

00:30:26.520 doesn't feel great.

00:30:28.000 When you make bad

00:30:28.740 decisions in life

00:30:29.420 and they don't turn out

00:30:30.200 or maybe you make

00:30:31.400 a good decision,

00:30:32.300 they don't turn out great,

00:30:33.240 that still hurts.

00:30:34.900 So I mean,

00:30:35.260 how did you learn

00:30:36.520 to detach yourself

00:30:37.920 from the outcome

00:30:39.140 of a hand in poker?

00:30:41.060 I had really,

00:30:42.560 really good teachers

00:30:43.300 and I had people

00:30:44.720 along the way

00:30:46.120 who could help me

00:30:47.320 learn to detach myself.

00:30:49.280 At the beginning,

00:30:50.340 it's not something

00:30:51.260 you do normally.

00:30:52.840 My coach,

00:30:54.000 Eric Seidel,

00:30:55.080 one of the first lessons

00:30:56.780 he taught me

00:30:57.660 was that

00:30:58.880 I actually wasn't

00:31:00.680 allowed to tell him

00:31:02.440 what the outcome

00:31:03.640 of a hand was.

00:31:04.660 I remember this so well.

00:31:05.660 So I was in Vegas

00:31:06.400 and I was in a tournament

00:31:09.060 and I ended up

00:31:11.020 busting out of the tournament

00:31:11.960 and I had the absolute

00:31:13.220 best hand

00:31:14.800 when we put all our money

00:31:16.880 in the middle

00:31:17.340 and then this other person

00:31:18.900 ended up beating me

00:31:19.720 because that lucky card

00:31:21.280 came out

00:31:21.880 and I lost

00:31:23.480 and I was out of there

00:31:24.500 and I was so confident

00:31:25.880 that I was going to win

00:31:27.000 but it was really devastating.

00:31:28.460 So I ran to him

00:31:29.340 and I started

00:31:29.920 telling him this story

00:31:31.580 and he just shut me up.

00:31:33.400 He said,

00:31:33.900 I don't want to hear it

00:31:35.000 and I was really upset.

00:31:36.740 I was like,

00:31:36.960 you're my coach,

00:31:37.560 you're supposed to listen to me

00:31:38.780 He said,

00:31:39.440 no,

00:31:40.260 because the outcome

00:31:41.200 does not matter.

00:31:43.140 Do you have a question

00:31:44.180 about how you actually

00:31:45.840 played the hand?

00:31:47.080 Do you have a question

00:31:47.900 about your decision process?

00:31:49.320 Do you have a question

00:31:50.020 about what you did?

00:31:51.360 And I had to acknowledge

00:31:52.640 that the answer was no,

00:31:53.660 that I knew exactly

00:31:54.600 what I was supposed to do

00:31:55.620 and that I did it,

00:31:57.200 that I got my money in

00:31:58.200 as a favorite,

00:31:58.920 that I was going to win

00:32:00.580 more often

00:32:01.060 than I was going to lose

00:32:02.080 and that's all

00:32:03.040 you can hope for.

00:32:04.540 And so I said,

00:32:05.360 well, no,

00:32:05.720 I don't actually have a question

00:32:06.840 and he said,

00:32:07.320 then that's it.

00:32:07.860 That's the end

00:32:08.680 of the conversation

00:32:09.480 because when you focus

00:32:11.640 on the outcome,

00:32:12.560 when you focus on

00:32:13.360 what in poker

00:32:14.020 is known as bad beats,

00:32:16.020 you're doing something

00:32:16.980 that's very detrimental

00:32:18.200 to yourself

00:32:19.960 and to other people.

00:32:21.160 He called it

00:32:21.960 putting your trash

00:32:23.040 or dumping your trash

00:32:24.280 on someone else's lawn

00:32:25.620 because you're just

00:32:26.840 taking this stuff

00:32:28.280 that doesn't matter,

00:32:29.100 this negativity,

00:32:30.200 and you're putting it

00:32:31.080 on other people.

00:32:31.840 But it's even more

00:32:33.720 detrimental to you

00:32:34.800 because it's toxic to you

00:32:36.500 because it means

00:32:37.660 that rather than

00:32:38.500 thinking through the hand,

00:32:39.740 rather than thinking

00:32:40.500 through the decision,

00:32:41.880 rather than thinking

00:32:42.660 through the elements

00:32:43.400 that are within your control,

00:32:45.460 you're thinking about

00:32:46.460 something that's

00:32:47.500 totally outside

00:32:48.220 of your control.

00:32:49.020 You're thinking about outcome.

00:32:50.080 You're thinking about luck

00:32:50.980 and that's weighing you down.

00:32:52.840 That's taking

00:32:53.240 your emotional resources

00:32:54.400 and it's inhibiting

00:32:56.600 you from learning

00:32:57.460 because rather than

00:32:59.300 focusing on the things

00:33:00.280 that you can learn from,

00:33:01.420 you're focusing on

00:33:02.260 the exact wrong part

00:33:03.240 of the equation.

00:33:04.420 And while at the beginning

00:33:05.220 I was really mad at him

00:33:06.300 for not letting me vent,

00:33:08.340 I couldn't be more grateful

00:33:10.320 that he just nipped

00:33:11.900 that habit in the bud

00:33:13.200 because it's incredibly liberating

00:33:16.520 to separate the process

00:33:18.580 from the outcome.

00:33:20.000 When we were talking earlier

00:33:21.260 about internal

00:33:22.200 versus external locus of control,

00:33:24.660 this is kind of

00:33:25.500 the most internal thing

00:33:26.860 you can do.

00:33:28.100 Why don't I spend

00:33:29.060 all of my time

00:33:30.120 thinking about the things

00:33:31.200 that are actually

00:33:32.160 within my power

00:33:33.580 that I have agency over,

00:33:35.780 things that I can change,

00:33:37.180 things that I can work on

00:33:38.480 rather than

00:33:39.760 those external things,

00:33:41.740 the externalities,

00:33:42.800 the noise,

00:33:43.900 the variance,

00:33:44.660 the stuff that's

00:33:45.340 completely outside

00:33:46.640 of my power.

00:33:48.000 And that's just

00:33:48.780 going to bring me down.

00:33:49.960 That's going to

00:33:50.640 mentally bring me down,

00:33:51.820 emotionally bring me down.

00:33:53.480 It's going to

00:33:54.240 make other people

00:33:55.060 not want to be around me

00:33:56.060 because I'm so negative.

00:33:57.560 And then I'm going to be

00:33:58.340 experiencing more

00:33:59.260 and more bad beats

00:34:00.160 because rather than

00:34:01.260 try to analyze

00:34:02.440 my thought process,

00:34:03.660 rather than trying

00:34:04.400 to analyze

00:34:05.060 what I might have done wrong

00:34:06.420 and what I can do next time

00:34:07.780 or what I did right

00:34:08.740 and should keep doing

00:34:10.160 even though I didn't do well,

00:34:12.120 rather than do that,

00:34:13.080 I'm just focusing

00:34:13.800 on what ended up happening.

00:34:16.580 And not only am I not improving,

00:34:18.500 but I'm also

00:34:19.320 putting my trash

00:34:21.100 on other people's lawns.

00:34:22.420 And so that was a very,

00:34:23.560 very powerful lesson.

00:34:25.240 And I needed someone

00:34:26.220 to tell me.

00:34:26.840 It's not like I learned

00:34:27.980 it by myself.

00:34:29.340 So I think

00:34:29.800 throughout this entire journey,

00:34:31.800 I do want to stress

00:34:33.340 that it's important

00:34:34.560 to have guidance.

00:34:36.220 It's important

00:34:36.620 to talk to other people.

00:34:38.860 It's really,

00:34:39.880 really difficult

00:34:40.300 to do anything

00:34:41.180 and to learn anything

00:34:42.460 in a vacuum.

00:34:43.580 I think we need

00:34:44.660 to acknowledge

00:34:45.900 that there are people

00:34:46.980 who are better than us

00:34:48.920 and seek those people out.

00:34:50.620 Seek out the smarter people.

00:34:52.020 Seek out the people

00:34:53.320 who have been doing

00:34:54.840 whatever we want to learn

00:34:56.740 how to do longer

00:34:58.140 and be humble about it.

00:34:59.820 Be willing to acknowledge

00:35:00.840 that, okay,

00:35:01.580 I'm learning.

00:35:02.580 I don't know.

00:35:03.760 I'm going to make

00:35:04.580 lots of mistakes.

00:35:05.420 I'm going to fail a lot

00:35:06.420 and that's okay.

00:35:07.800 Let me talk through it

00:35:09.140 with someone

00:35:09.540 who can help me get better.

00:35:11.600 And have you noticed

00:35:12.360 that this has carried over

00:35:13.360 to other domains

00:35:13.940 of your life?

00:35:14.680 Like you've gotten better

00:35:15.500 about separating process

00:35:16.620 from outcomes?

00:35:17.400 Oh, absolutely.

00:35:18.400 I mean,

00:35:18.620 it's actually become

00:35:19.480 somewhat of a mental habit

00:35:21.160 that I think is potentially

00:35:22.920 a little bit annoying

00:35:23.720 to people

00:35:24.220 because not only

00:35:24.940 do I separate

00:35:25.640 process from outcome

00:35:26.660 but I also calibrate

00:35:28.220 my probabilities

00:35:29.040 as precisely as I can.

00:35:30.920 So I'll often say

00:35:31.560 something like,

00:35:32.480 oh, well, you know,

00:35:33.060 I'm 65% sure of this

00:35:34.640 or I'm 80% sure

00:35:36.300 or something like that.

00:35:37.800 And so I'll actually

00:35:38.820 say how certain I am

00:35:40.040 and I'll actually say

00:35:41.140 what I think

00:35:42.660 in terms of my,

00:35:43.920 you know,

00:35:44.440 Kantian,

00:35:45.260 how much I'm willing

00:35:46.000 to bet on it,

00:35:46.900 so to speak.

00:35:47.780 And yeah,

00:35:48.380 I am much more focused

00:35:49.960 on the process

00:35:50.840 and that's actually

00:35:52.000 been one of the

00:35:53.460 most liberating things

00:35:54.740 that poker has done

00:35:55.540 for me

00:35:56.020 because I never realized

00:35:58.560 how often I dwell

00:35:59.720 on the bad beats

00:36:01.220 and let it get me down,

00:36:02.560 especially these days.

00:36:03.560 There's just

00:36:04.080 so many horrible things

00:36:06.040 going on in the world

00:36:06.940 and it's so easy

00:36:07.860 to lose yourself in it,

00:36:09.560 to lose yourself

00:36:10.260 in the noise,

00:36:11.600 to lose yourself

00:36:12.200 in the news

00:36:12.920 and the very important stuff

00:36:14.520 but stuff that you

00:36:15.520 personally

00:36:16.700 can't do anything about.

00:36:18.840 And what I've started

00:36:20.980 doing instead

00:36:21.740 is flipping it

00:36:23.100 on its head

00:36:23.720 and thinking,

00:36:24.340 okay,

00:36:24.640 well,

00:36:25.780 yeah,

00:36:26.200 there's a lot wrong.

00:36:28.260 What can I control?

00:36:29.680 What can I do?

00:36:31.080 What are the things

00:36:31.900 that I can focus on

00:36:32.880 where I actually

00:36:33.660 have agency,

00:36:34.880 where I can actually

00:36:35.840 make a difference?

00:36:37.320 And that's a very,

00:36:38.760 to me,

00:36:39.200 that's been a very

00:36:39.860 powerful mind shift.

00:36:41.720 So your first book

00:36:42.340 that you wrote

00:36:42.780 was Mastermind,

00:36:44.120 How to Think

00:36:44.600 Like Sherlock Holmes.

00:36:45.680 And one takeaway

00:36:47.580 or one thing

00:36:48.120 that Sherlock Holmes

00:36:49.120 is known for

00:36:49.900 is his keen ability

00:36:51.540 of paying attention

00:36:53.040 and noticing things

00:36:54.940 that other people

00:36:55.540 don't notice.

00:36:56.680 What did you learn

00:36:57.540 about paying attention

00:36:58.860 by playing poker?

00:37:00.980 Yeah,

00:37:01.360 that's,

00:37:01.820 I'm so glad

00:37:03.120 that you drew

00:37:03.960 that connection

00:37:04.640 because I realized

00:37:06.820 partway through the book

00:37:07.760 that there really,

00:37:08.760 partway through writing

00:37:09.600 the book,

00:37:10.400 that there really were

00:37:11.440 a lot of similarities

00:37:13.660 between what

00:37:15.480 Sherlock Holmes does

00:37:16.760 when he's solving crimes

00:37:18.000 and what Eric was trying

00:37:19.000 to teach me to do

00:37:19.820 in playing poker,

00:37:20.880 this paying attention.

00:37:22.260 And by the way,

00:37:22.740 Holmes would be a

00:37:23.580 killer poker player

00:37:25.000 and never sit down

00:37:25.760 at the table with him.

00:37:27.080 But it's,

00:37:27.840 it's this process

00:37:29.380 of constant presence

00:37:31.540 and mindful awareness.

00:37:34.760 Sherlock Holmes,

00:37:35.880 the reason I even

00:37:36.880 wrote my first book

00:37:37.940 was because of

00:37:38.740 one single scene

00:37:40.320 in the Sherlock Holmes books.

00:37:42.020 And it's a scene

00:37:43.260 where Holmes asks Watson

00:37:44.740 how many steps

00:37:45.660 lead up to 221B Baker Street

00:37:47.560 where they live

00:37:48.300 and Watson doesn't know.

00:37:50.320 And Holmes says,

00:37:51.060 that's the difference

00:37:51.880 between us.

00:37:53.020 You only see,

00:37:54.680 I both see and observe.

00:37:56.620 That single quote

00:37:58.380 from Sherlock Holmes

00:37:59.260 was the inspiration

00:38:00.400 for Mastermind,

00:38:01.280 my first book,

00:38:02.280 because I just,

00:38:03.240 I was blown away

00:38:04.360 when I was little

00:38:05.160 and when I revisited it

00:38:06.540 as an adult

00:38:07.240 by that separation

00:38:08.920 between simply seeing

00:38:10.380 and seeing and observing.

00:38:12.660 So just going through life,

00:38:14.300 being kind of mindless,

00:38:17.120 letting things happen

00:38:18.080 and making the active decision

00:38:20.600 to also not just see

00:38:21.980 but observe,

00:38:22.720 to be present,

00:38:23.600 to pay mindful attention.

00:38:25.740 And at the poker table,

00:38:27.380 it's a lesson

00:38:28.620 that's reinforced

00:38:29.740 so strongly

00:38:31.260 that you actually

00:38:32.120 have to internalize it

00:38:33.420 much more

00:38:34.160 than when you learn

00:38:35.360 about it theoretically.

00:38:36.800 So theoretically,

00:38:37.720 you know,

00:38:37.900 I was very well aware

00:38:39.000 of the need

00:38:39.540 to pay attention,

00:38:41.060 mindfulness,

00:38:41.760 all of these things.

00:38:42.960 This brings us,

00:38:44.020 again,

00:38:44.380 back to Kant.

00:38:45.400 If you're not incentivized,

00:38:47.080 if there's no money

00:38:47.860 on the table,

00:38:48.680 if there are no stakes,

00:38:50.480 then you oftentimes

00:38:51.240 don't have to actually

00:38:53.200 take theory

00:38:54.280 and put it into practice

00:38:55.760 because it's hard.

00:38:57.680 It's hard work.

00:38:58.600 Paying attention

00:38:59.080 is hard work.

00:39:00.160 It seems like

00:39:00.660 the easiest advice

00:39:01.520 in the world

00:39:02.020 and yet it's some

00:39:02.640 of the hardest advice

00:39:03.480 to follow

00:39:03.920 because our brains

00:39:04.880 aren't wired

00:39:05.580 to pay attention.

00:39:06.360 And our minds

00:39:07.280 are actually

00:39:07.820 wandering machines.

00:39:10.600 That's what we do.

00:39:11.460 The default mode network,

00:39:12.700 which is the network

00:39:14.180 in our brain

00:39:14.820 that's active

00:39:15.480 when we're not doing anything,

00:39:16.980 it's constantly

00:39:17.800 scanning the environment

00:39:19.080 and looking for threats

00:39:20.320 and looking for changes,

00:39:21.820 looking for anything

00:39:22.580 out there.

00:39:23.540 And so,

00:39:24.400 in the modern environment,

00:39:25.400 that means that

00:39:25.920 we're just constantly

00:39:26.660 flitting from one thing

00:39:27.760 to another

00:39:28.320 and all of these things

00:39:30.380 are vying for our attention

00:39:31.660 and that's the default.

00:39:33.980 It's really,

00:39:34.840 really hard

00:39:35.420 to focus on just one thing,

00:39:37.080 to be present

00:39:38.000 and to not let your mind wander.

00:39:40.500 That takes effort.

00:39:41.620 It takes energy.

00:39:42.600 It takes just a very conscious desire

00:39:45.320 to do that.

00:39:46.760 Poker is the first time

00:39:48.040 where I was actually forced

00:39:49.660 to do that

00:39:50.420 because I realized

00:39:51.420 that if I didn't do it,

00:39:52.820 I'd play much worse

00:39:53.800 and I'd lose money

00:39:54.860 and I actually wouldn't improve.

00:39:56.700 Whereas,

00:39:57.180 if I paid attention,

00:39:58.220 if I actually brought my focus

00:40:00.560 to the table,

00:40:01.520 I would not only

00:40:03.900 improve my decisions

00:40:05.640 but actually see better outcomes

00:40:08.040 because over time,

00:40:09.920 those decisions

00:40:10.540 will translate into outcomes

00:40:12.400 even though

00:40:13.340 in any immediate case,

00:40:15.000 you need to learn

00:40:15.560 to separate the two.

00:40:17.280 And so,

00:40:18.320 I learned

00:40:19.120 because

00:40:20.200 of the poker table,

00:40:22.840 because

00:40:23.140 of

00:40:24.480 how much

00:40:25.580 it mattered

00:40:26.380 whether I was right

00:40:27.340 or wrong,

00:40:27.900 I learned

00:40:28.800 how to really,

00:40:29.900 really focus

00:40:30.840 on people,

00:40:32.040 on what was happening,

00:40:33.200 on what people

00:40:33.800 were telling me

00:40:34.660 in the words

00:40:35.540 they weren't saying

00:40:36.280 but what their bodies

00:40:37.100 were saying,

00:40:38.160 what the dynamics were.

00:40:39.920 I just learned

00:40:40.960 to really

00:40:41.800 be aware

00:40:43.220 of everything

00:40:44.080 and everyone around me

00:40:45.320 and also

00:40:46.060 to be much more aware

00:40:47.160 of myself,

00:40:48.360 my own mind,

00:40:49.540 the thoughts

00:40:50.000 in my head,

00:40:51.380 the emotions

00:40:51.980 I was feeling,

00:40:52.980 what my body

00:40:53.660 was telling me

00:40:54.560 because being aware

00:40:55.760 and paying attention

00:40:56.540 doesn't just mean

00:40:57.280 paying attention

00:40:57.800 to others,

00:40:58.320 it also means

00:40:58.920 paying attention

00:40:59.580 to yourself.

00:41:01.300 And so,

00:41:01.700 the irony,

00:41:02.720 I think,

00:41:03.000 is that

00:41:03.400 the most mindful

00:41:04.900 and kind of

00:41:05.360 zen-like thing

00:41:06.200 I've ever done

00:41:07.000 isn't meditating

00:41:08.840 in all of these habits

00:41:09.880 that I picked up

00:41:10.920 while I was studying

00:41:11.920 mindfulness

00:41:12.400 and writing

00:41:13.640 Metroloch Holmes

00:41:14.520 but at the poker table

00:41:16.300 that it's actually,

00:41:17.440 I think,

00:41:17.820 the greatest exercise

00:41:19.880 in mindfulness

00:41:20.540 that I've ever

00:41:21.360 undertaken.

00:41:23.440 There was a point

00:41:24.160 in your preparations,

00:41:25.600 you're getting ready

00:41:26.100 for this big tournament

00:41:27.420 and there's a point

00:41:29.060 and all throughout this

00:41:29.880 your coaches

00:41:30.300 were telling you

00:41:30.820 don't do this

00:41:32.360 if you don't feel ready

00:41:33.520 but you were like

00:41:35.020 I got a book

00:41:36.200 I gotta write

00:41:36.880 so you had this

00:41:39.540 sort of debate

00:41:40.040 within yourself

00:41:40.800 it's like,

00:41:41.600 well,

00:41:41.940 should I push ahead?

00:41:43.380 Should I hold off?

00:41:45.240 And that brings up

00:41:45.900 some,

00:41:46.280 I think that's something

00:41:47.260 that poker can teach us

00:41:48.240 about our own decision making

00:41:49.800 with status quo bias

00:41:51.260 or goal lock.

00:41:52.900 What did you learn

00:41:53.620 about those human bias

00:41:56.060 when you're grappling

00:41:57.100 with that decision?

00:41:59.160 That they're really,

00:42:00.240 really hard to fight.

00:42:01.540 I made a really big mistake.

00:42:04.480 I didn't listen

00:42:05.760 to my coaches

00:42:06.480 and I actually

00:42:08.020 experienced firsthand

00:42:09.340 how strong

00:42:10.580 those biases are.

00:42:11.520 How strong

00:42:12.700 your status quo bias is.

00:42:15.100 Keep doing

00:42:16.020 what you'd always

00:42:16.780 planned on doing.

00:42:17.760 Don't change course.

00:42:19.080 Changing course

00:42:19.760 is a sign of weakness.

00:42:21.260 How strong

00:42:21.960 the planning fallacy is

00:42:23.380 which is when

00:42:24.200 your plans

00:42:25.500 aren't mapping

00:42:26.180 onto reality

00:42:27.080 and yet rather than

00:42:28.200 change the plans

00:42:29.060 you hold on to them

00:42:29.960 because you're like,

00:42:30.540 no, no,

00:42:30.840 I couldn't have planned

00:42:31.640 wrong to begin with

00:42:32.540 so I'm going to keep going.

00:42:34.260 So in poker

00:42:35.700 you realize

00:42:37.120 how strong

00:42:38.260 a lot of these biases are

00:42:40.100 and

00:42:40.760 how difficult

00:42:41.960 they are

00:42:42.660 to actually change.

00:42:43.840 So here I was,

00:42:44.780 I'm someone who

00:42:45.560 studied

00:42:46.280 all of these

00:42:47.500 decision biases.

00:42:49.420 That's

00:42:49.920 subject of my

00:42:51.320 dissertation was

00:42:52.380 like I said

00:42:53.400 decision making

00:42:54.200 under conditions

00:42:55.120 of risk and uncertainty

00:42:56.300 and I saw

00:42:57.100 all of these things

00:42:58.140 playing out.

00:42:58.820 I knew all about

00:42:59.480 the status quo bias

00:43:00.500 and all about

00:43:01.600 the planning fallacy

00:43:03.700 and all of these things

00:43:05.020 and yet somehow

00:43:06.360 I didn't apply it

00:43:07.940 to myself

00:43:08.520 because

00:43:08.920 I was just so

00:43:10.260 motivated

00:43:10.860 for other reasons

00:43:12.280 to

00:43:13.340 keep going

00:43:14.480 and to stay on course

00:43:15.560 and I didn't

00:43:16.840 listen to what I knew.

00:43:18.340 I didn't listen

00:43:18.960 to my coaches

00:43:19.640 and when I knew

00:43:21.420 that asking a question

00:43:22.580 would yield an answer

00:43:23.560 I didn't want

00:43:24.320 I didn't ask the question

00:43:26.100 so I just made

00:43:26.720 every single

00:43:28.040 mistake

00:43:28.700 and I ended up

00:43:29.900 playing an event

00:43:30.500 I was not ready for

00:43:31.620 losing a lot of money

00:43:33.020 and

00:43:33.900 actually learning a lot

00:43:35.700 from the experience

00:43:36.740 because

00:43:37.160 I realized

00:43:39.360 that wow

00:43:40.100 you know

00:43:40.740 you knowing

00:43:41.700 theoretically

00:43:42.240 once again

00:43:42.860 about something

00:43:43.520 is not the same thing

00:43:44.400 as being able to

00:43:45.320 execute on it

00:43:46.240 practically

00:43:46.920 and

00:43:48.200 in hindsight

00:43:48.980 and here's

00:43:49.760 hindsight bias

00:43:50.520 it becomes

00:43:51.480 very very clear

00:43:52.520 that I should have

00:43:53.560 changed course

00:43:54.200 I should have

00:43:54.820 done this

00:43:55.480 I should have

00:43:55.880 listened

00:43:56.220 I should have

00:43:56.620 done that

00:43:57.120 but you know

00:43:57.600 hindsight's 20-20

00:43:58.580 and in the moment

00:44:00.100 all of these factors

00:44:01.680 were theoretically

00:44:02.460 available to me

00:44:03.560 it's not like this

00:44:04.420 was hidden information

00:44:05.420 but I rationalized

00:44:06.960 it away

00:44:07.240 I chose

00:44:08.120 not to see it

00:44:09.500 and it just

00:44:10.480 shows

00:44:11.100 how strong

00:44:11.900 our powers

00:44:12.640 of rationalization

00:44:13.640 are

00:44:14.000 and how much

00:44:14.920 we oftentimes

00:44:15.700 believe

00:44:16.360 what we want

00:44:16.920 to believe

00:44:17.300 rather than

00:44:18.020 what the world

00:44:18.880 is telling us

00:44:19.800 and that was

00:44:20.700 a very painful

00:44:21.560 experience

00:44:22.080 because I lost

00:44:22.980 $10,000

00:44:23.740 which is

00:44:24.540 an awful lot

00:44:25.520 of money

00:44:25.920 and

00:44:27.100 because of that

00:44:28.500 though

00:44:28.800 I learned from it

00:44:29.780 and I'd like to

00:44:30.980 think that

00:44:31.660 I'm much

00:44:32.580 less likely

00:44:33.480 to commit

00:44:34.540 these sorts

00:44:35.220 of mistakes

00:44:35.740 in the future

00:44:36.500 and

00:44:37.440 I regrouped

00:44:38.840 I

00:44:39.400 kind of

00:44:40.420 I changed

00:44:41.300 plans

00:44:41.820 I actually

00:44:42.460 sat down

00:44:43.060 and talked

00:44:43.540 to my

00:44:43.840 coach

00:44:44.160 and we

00:44:44.920 made

00:44:45.200 an entirely

00:44:45.820 new game

00:44:46.620 plan

00:44:46.940 I moved

00:44:47.920 down in stakes

00:44:48.820 I started

00:44:49.280 playing

00:44:49.700 much cheaper

00:44:50.880 tournaments

00:44:51.380 that were

00:44:51.780 much more

00:44:52.160 affordable

00:44:52.500 and I

00:44:54.020 basically

00:44:54.700 said okay

00:44:55.360 you know

00:44:55.780 I made

00:44:56.040 a really

00:44:56.320 big mistake

00:44:57.020 let's

00:44:57.860 see what

00:44:58.480 we can

00:44:58.780 do now

00:44:59.140 moving

00:44:59.460 forward

00:44:59.940 because

00:45:00.500 the other

00:45:01.040 bad thing

00:45:02.400 that you

00:45:02.700 can do

00:45:03.160 is

00:45:03.620 something

00:45:04.060 called

00:45:04.420 the sunk

00:45:04.780 cost fallacy

00:45:05.520 which is

00:45:06.100 that

00:45:06.320 you just

00:45:07.540 keep going

00:45:08.080 after you

00:45:08.620 make a

00:45:08.880 mistake

00:45:09.200 you don't

00:45:10.040 acknowledge

00:45:10.400 it

00:45:10.600 and you

00:45:10.920 put good

00:45:11.480 money

00:45:11.700 after bad

00:45:12.340 good

00:45:13.220 emotions

00:45:13.700 after bad

00:45:14.560 good

00:45:15.280 time

00:45:15.720 after bad

00:45:16.400 whatever

00:45:16.800 it is

00:45:17.660 you've

00:45:17.840 already

00:45:18.100 invested

00:45:18.620 and so

00:45:19.760 at least

00:45:20.100 I didn't

00:45:20.460 do that

00:45:21.000 at least

00:45:21.540 I realized

00:45:22.260 that okay

00:45:22.920 yeah

00:45:23.540 these were

00:45:23.940 all sunk

00:45:24.340 costs

00:45:24.740 this was

00:45:25.600 my lesson

00:45:26.160 this was

00:45:26.640 the price

00:45:27.000 I had

00:45:27.280 to pay

00:45:27.720 now let's

00:45:28.680 see

00:45:28.920 how I

00:45:29.500 can

00:45:29.680 really

00:45:30.260 do

00:45:31.280 my best

00:45:31.960 to get

00:45:32.660 past it

00:45:33.220 to improve

00:45:34.180 to work

00:45:34.700 on the

00:45:34.980 things

00:45:35.240 that

00:45:35.540 once again

00:45:36.280 are within

00:45:36.760 me

00:45:36.940 to control

00:45:37.500 so that

00:45:37.960 I can

00:45:38.420 hopefully

00:45:39.320 get to

00:45:39.820 a better

00:45:40.140 outcome

00:45:40.500 in the

00:45:40.780 future

00:45:41.100 and so

00:45:41.880 I kept

00:45:42.140 going

00:45:42.480 I kept

00:45:43.020 going

00:45:43.320 past

00:45:43.780 when my

00:45:45.020 original

00:45:45.360 deadline

00:45:45.660 was for

00:45:46.060 the book

00:45:46.400 I changed

00:45:47.020 the book

00:45:47.360 I told

00:45:47.660 my editor

00:45:48.100 you know

00:45:48.760 what this

00:45:49.200 didn't work

00:45:49.720 out I need

00:45:50.280 to keep

00:45:50.580 going

00:45:50.960 and I was

00:45:51.680 lucky that

00:45:52.080 my editor

00:45:52.420 said yeah

00:45:52.860 whatever

00:45:53.200 you know

00:45:53.480 keep do

00:45:54.000 what you

00:45:54.220 need to

00:45:54.500 do

00:45:54.780 take as

00:45:55.340 much

00:45:55.520 time

00:45:55.760 as you

00:45:56.040 need

00:45:56.340 and so

00:45:57.180 I just

00:45:57.600 regrouped

00:45:58.500 and changed

00:45:59.420 all of my

00:45:59.960 expectations

00:46:00.540 and I think

00:46:01.100 that's one

00:46:01.500 of the smartest

00:46:01.980 things that

00:46:03.500 I could have

00:46:03.880 possibly done

00:46:04.560 I wish

00:46:05.000 I had done

00:46:05.360 it sooner

00:46:05.740 but I don't

00:46:06.220 know that

00:46:06.540 I could

00:46:06.900 have done

00:46:07.280 it sooner

00:46:07.640 sometimes

00:46:08.060 you really

00:46:08.980 do need

00:46:09.360 to learn

00:46:09.680 from your

00:46:10.040 own

00:46:10.200 experience

00:46:10.800 that's one

00:46:11.680 of the

00:46:11.840 frustrating

00:46:12.180 things about

00:46:12.680 biases

00:46:13.400 I've read

00:46:14.320 all these

00:46:14.540 books about

00:46:14.940 I know

00:46:15.460 all the

00:46:15.740 biases

00:46:16.140 but then

00:46:17.240 I still

00:46:17.880 even though

00:46:18.840 I know

00:46:19.180 it

00:46:19.340 I'll catch

00:46:20.420 myself

00:46:20.940 after the

00:46:21.640 fact

00:46:21.820 oh my

00:46:22.160 gosh

00:46:22.520 I just

00:46:23.380 did

00:46:23.520 status quo

00:46:23.960 bias

00:46:24.380 and it's

00:46:25.120 so frustrating

00:46:25.940 and I

00:46:27.120 don't know

00:46:27.680 how you

00:46:28.040 I guess

00:46:28.720 that's where

00:46:29.000 a coach

00:46:29.320 comes in

00:46:29.700 like a

00:46:30.320 third party

00:46:30.940 can let

00:46:31.700 you know

00:46:31.960 hey

00:46:32.380 you're doing

00:46:32.940 this

00:46:33.340 because you're

00:46:34.260 probably not

00:46:34.820 thinking about

00:46:35.420 it while

00:46:36.060 you're in

00:46:36.360 the middle

00:46:36.660 of the

00:46:36.860 decision

00:46:37.240 absolutely

00:46:37.980 I think

00:46:38.560 it's so

00:46:39.200 important

00:46:39.620 to have

00:46:40.040 someone

00:46:40.480 else

00:46:41.120 to talk

00:46:41.740 to

00:46:41.960 because

00:46:42.300 you do

00:46:42.880 not

00:46:43.120 see

00:46:43.380 yourself

00:46:43.860 objectively

00:46:44.520 I mean

00:46:44.900 we can't

00:46:45.720 we see

00:46:46.080 ourselves

00:46:46.420 subjectively

00:46:47.120 we can

00:46:47.840 become

00:46:48.080 better

00:46:48.380 at it

00:46:48.900 and

00:46:49.700 one

00:46:50.220 of the

00:46:50.480 things

00:46:50.720 that's

00:46:50.960 actually

00:46:51.240 really

00:46:51.560 helped

00:46:51.880 me

00:46:52.220 throughout

00:46:52.840 this

00:46:53.080 process

00:46:53.420 and

00:46:53.640 something

00:46:53.860 that

00:46:54.100 I've

00:46:54.300 learned

00:46:54.640 that I

00:46:55.260 now

00:46:55.500 apply

00:46:55.800 to

00:46:56.020 other

00:46:56.260 areas

00:46:56.660 is

00:46:56.960 even

00:46:57.340 if

00:46:57.560 you

00:46:57.720 don't

00:46:58.140 have

00:46:58.340 a

00:46:58.480 coach

00:46:58.800 right

00:46:59.260 even

00:46:59.460 if

00:46:59.640 this

00:46:59.840 is

00:47:00.000 something

00:47:00.280 where

00:47:00.640 you're

00:47:01.320 making

00:47:01.620 a

00:47:01.820 decision

00:47:02.180 in

00:47:02.560 daily

00:47:03.040 life

00:47:03.480 you're

00:47:03.820 choosing

00:47:04.640 to do

00:47:05.320 or not

00:47:05.660 to do

00:47:06.000 something

00:47:06.400 and it's

00:47:07.320 something

00:47:07.540 personal

00:47:08.040 and it's

00:47:08.640 not like

00:47:09.100 you're

00:47:09.400 actually

00:47:09.760 going to

00:47:10.100 be talking

00:47:10.540 through

00:47:10.840 this

00:47:11.120 with

00:47:11.420 a

00:47:11.680 coach

00:47:11.980 who

00:47:12.220 is

00:47:12.460 helping

00:47:12.900 you

00:47:13.280 make

00:47:13.900 better

00:47:14.180 decisions

00:47:14.580 in

00:47:14.860 your

00:47:14.980 life

00:47:15.300 maybe

00:47:15.860 you

00:47:16.020 do

00:47:16.120 have

00:47:16.280 a

00:47:16.380 life

00:47:16.520 coach

00:47:16.780 but

00:47:17.060 a lot

00:47:17.840 of

00:47:17.960 people

00:47:18.160 do

00:47:18.320 not

00:47:18.560 I

00:47:19.040 don't

00:47:19.360 and

00:47:19.920 so

00:47:20.320 what's

00:47:20.880 really

00:47:21.200 helped

00:47:21.620 me

00:47:22.000 is

00:47:22.920 to

00:47:23.720 think

00:47:24.720 as if

00:47:25.620 you're

00:47:25.920 going to

00:47:26.300 have to

00:47:26.840 describe

00:47:27.660 this

00:47:28.060 decision

00:47:28.720 process

00:47:29.160 and

00:47:29.380 explain

00:47:29.760 it

00:47:29.940 to

00:47:30.100 someone

00:47:30.360 else

00:47:30.720 so

00:47:31.260 apart

00:47:31.580 from

00:47:31.800 Eric

00:47:32.020 Seidel

00:47:32.280 I

00:47:32.540 also

00:47:32.820 worked

00:47:33.200 with

00:47:33.500 Phil

00:47:33.700 Galfond

00:47:34.220 who

00:47:34.760 taught

00:47:35.000 me

00:47:35.140 something

00:47:35.440 really

00:47:35.860 really

00:47:36.160 important

00:47:36.600 so

00:47:36.840 Phil

00:47:37.040 Galfond

00:47:37.400 is also

00:47:37.900 an

00:47:38.940 amazing

00:47:39.560 poker

00:47:39.880 player

00:47:40.240 so

00:47:41.220 he

00:47:42.440 taught

00:47:43.640 me

00:47:44.000 to

00:47:44.780 ask

00:47:45.460 a

00:47:45.700 question

00:47:46.160 before

00:47:46.660 any

00:47:47.060 action

00:47:47.580 and

00:47:48.300 that

00:47:48.460 question

00:47:48.880 was

00:47:49.340 why

00:47:50.080 he

00:47:50.540 said

00:47:50.740 always

00:47:51.200 ask

00:47:51.520 why

00:47:51.860 why

00:47:52.320 are

00:47:52.460 other

00:47:52.660 people

00:47:52.940 doing

00:47:53.220 what

00:47:53.400 they're

00:47:53.540 doing

00:47:53.860 if

00:47:54.200 you

00:47:54.320 can

00:47:54.480 figure

00:47:54.700 out

00:47:54.920 the

00:47:55.060 why

00:47:55.360 you

00:47:55.760 can

00:47:56.260 figure

00:47:56.500 out

00:47:56.800 how

00:47:57.360 to

00:47:57.500 react

00:47:57.840 to

00:47:58.000 them

00:47:58.260 and

00:47:58.780 how

00:47:58.980 to

00:47:59.100 beat

00:47:59.280 them

00:47:59.460 if

00:47:59.620 you're

00:47:59.800 at

00:48:00.040 the

00:48:00.160 poker

00:48:00.360 table

00:48:00.740 but

00:48:01.220 also

00:48:01.800 ask

00:48:02.380 yourself

00:48:03.140 the

00:48:03.680 why

00:48:04.060 ask

00:48:04.980 yourself

00:48:05.640 why

00:48:05.960 you're

00:48:06.140 doing

00:48:06.380 something

00:48:06.820 and

00:48:07.620 if

00:48:07.940 you

00:48:08.140 take

00:48:08.560 that

00:48:08.900 to

00:48:09.940 your

00:48:10.160 decision

00:48:10.560 process

00:48:11.100 and

00:48:11.660 take

00:48:11.940 a

00:48:12.120 moment

00:48:12.380 to

00:48:12.660 reflect

00:48:13.120 before

00:48:13.520 you

00:48:13.720 do

00:48:13.900 anything

00:48:14.300 and

00:48:14.500 say

00:48:14.640 why

00:48:14.960 why

00:48:15.900 am

00:48:16.080 I

00:48:16.200 doing

00:48:16.440 this

00:48:16.740 what

00:48:17.020 are

00:48:17.160 the

00:48:17.340 options

00:48:17.740 why

00:48:18.000 am

00:48:18.120 I

00:48:18.220 choosing

00:48:18.480 this

00:48:18.880 option

00:48:19.240 why

00:48:19.500 is

00:48:19.660 this

00:48:19.840 option

00:48:20.160 better

00:48:20.400 than

00:48:20.600 the

00:48:20.740 other

00:48:20.940 options

00:48:21.360 and

00:48:21.980 in

00:48:22.200 my

00:48:22.400 mind

00:48:22.880 if

00:48:23.480 I

00:48:23.900 knew

00:48:24.380 that

00:48:24.580 I

00:48:24.700 was

00:48:24.820 actually

00:48:25.140 going

00:48:25.380 to

00:48:25.520 have

00:48:25.680 to

00:48:25.800 explain

00:48:26.160 a

00:48:26.300 decision

00:48:26.620 to

00:48:26.860 Eric

00:48:27.140 or

00:48:27.380 to

00:48:27.600 Phil

00:48:27.920 I

00:48:28.760 ended

00:48:29.080 up

00:48:29.300 making

00:48:29.580 better

00:48:29.960 decisions

00:48:30.580 because

00:48:30.980 it

00:48:31.780 stopped

00:48:32.300 me

00:48:32.540 from

00:48:32.760 doing

00:48:33.040 things

00:48:33.380 just

00:48:33.620 because

00:48:34.080 I

00:48:34.560 knew

00:48:34.840 that

00:48:35.040 they

00:48:35.240 wouldn't

00:48:35.540 buy

00:48:35.760 that

00:48:35.960 that's

00:48:36.200 a

00:48:36.300 bad

00:48:36.500 reason

00:48:37.860 and

00:48:38.500 so

00:48:38.680 if

00:48:39.060 you

00:48:39.260 think

00:48:39.620 before

00:48:39.940 you

00:48:40.140 act

00:48:40.500 and

00:48:40.640 think

00:48:40.840 okay

00:48:41.120 I'm

00:48:41.780 going

00:48:41.880 to

00:48:41.980 explain

00:48:42.720 this

00:48:42.920 to

00:48:43.080 someone

00:48:43.380 so

00:48:50.160 why

00:48:50.700 you're

00:48:50.880 doing

00:48:51.160 something

00:48:51.660 all

00:48:52.760 of a

00:48:53.060 sudden

00:48:53.380 a

00:48:54.160 lot

00:48:54.380 of

00:48:54.500 the

00:48:54.640 biases

00:48:55.060 that

00:48:55.540 you

00:48:55.680 didn't

00:48:55.940 realize

00:48:56.520 you

00:48:57.300 were

00:48:57.480 using

00:48:57.920 are

00:48:58.540 going

00:48:58.780 to

00:48:58.980 come

00:48:59.160 out

00:48:59.360 you'll

00:48:59.560 realize

00:48:59.820 oh

00:49:00.120 wow

00:49:00.400 I

00:49:00.560 was

00:49:00.700 just

00:49:00.860 doing

00:49:01.100 this

00:49:01.280 because

00:49:01.500 I

00:49:01.640 always

00:49:01.880 do

00:49:02.040 it

00:49:02.140 I

00:49:02.220 was

00:49:02.300 just

00:49:02.420 going

00:49:02.620 with

00:49:02.840 a

00:49:02.960 default

00:49:03.320 effect

00:49:03.700 status

00:49:04.280 quo

00:49:04.580 whatever

00:49:04.880 it

00:49:05.140 was

00:49:05.440 that's

00:49:06.540 not

00:49:06.660 a

00:49:06.760 good

00:49:06.880 reason

00:49:07.220 because

00:49:07.720 I

00:49:07.920 know

00:49:08.100 about

00:49:08.320 these

00:49:08.540 biases

00:49:08.880 and

00:49:09.100 I

00:49:09.200 know

00:49:09.340 that's

00:49:09.580 not

00:49:09.720 a

00:49:09.820 good

00:49:09.940 reason

00:49:10.280 do

00:49:10.740 I

00:49:20.160 picturing

00:49:20.720 and

00:49:20.980 projecting

00:49:21.540 what

00:49:22.200 you

00:49:22.380 would

00:49:22.560 say

00:49:23.020 to

00:49:23.740 another

00:49:24.060 person

00:49:24.480 that

00:49:24.660 you

00:49:24.780 trust

00:49:25.240 that

00:49:25.520 you

00:49:25.680 respect

00:49:26.260 whose

00:49:26.900 opinion

00:49:27.260 you

00:49:27.540 care

00:49:27.840 about

00:49:28.160 I

00:49:28.580 think

00:49:28.740 that

00:49:28.880 that's

00:49:29.160 a

00:49:29.280 way

00:49:29.460 that

00:49:29.660 you

00:49:29.820 can

00:49:30.180 help

00:49:30.920 yourself

00:49:31.760 improve

00:49:32.360 even

00:49:32.920 when

00:49:33.340 you're

00:49:33.540 not

00:49:33.740 actually

00:49:34.300 working

00:49:34.740 with

00:49:34.960 a

00:49:35.080 coach

00:49:35.440 so

00:49:36.400 do

00:49:36.660 you

00:49:36.780 think

00:49:37.020 you've

00:49:37.300 gotten

00:49:37.480 a

00:49:37.600 better

00:49:37.720 grasp

00:49:38.180 of

00:49:38.320 the

00:49:38.500 skill

00:49:38.800 luck

00:49:39.040 question

00:49:39.420 now

00:49:39.740 that

00:49:39.820 you've

00:49:39.940 become

00:49:40.160 an

00:49:40.420 international

00:49:40.900 poker

00:49:41.240 tournament

00:49:41.620 champion

00:49:42.060 I

00:49:43.680 do

00:49:44.160 I do

00:49:44.880 and

00:49:45.920 I

00:49:46.480 think

00:49:46.700 it's

00:49:46.960 both

00:49:47.300 I

00:49:48.280 mean

00:49:48.400 I

00:49:48.540 like

00:49:48.720 to

00:49:48.840 think

00:49:49.020 that

00:49:49.260 it's

00:49:49.560 an

00:49:50.100 optimistic

00:49:50.520 answer

00:49:51.120 even

00:49:51.480 though

00:49:51.840 some

00:49:52.620 people

00:49:52.920 might

00:49:53.280 disagree

00:49:53.720 because

00:49:54.320 you

00:49:55.120 realize

00:49:55.800 that

00:49:56.260 a lot

00:49:57.140 of

00:49:57.300 life

00:49:57.580 is

00:49:57.840 luck

00:49:58.140 and

00:49:58.780 that

00:49:58.940 in

00:49:59.100 the

00:49:59.260 immediate

00:49:59.540 term

00:50:00.040 in

00:50:00.420 any

00:50:00.760 given

00:50:01.040 situation

00:50:01.680 in

00:50:02.000 any

00:50:02.320 given

00:50:02.580 interaction

00:50:03.180 in

00:50:03.440 any

00:50:03.700 given

00:50:03.920 decision

00:50:04.400 luck

00:50:05.440 is

00:50:05.720 king

00:50:06.040 I

00:50:06.440 mean

00:50:06.580 that's

00:50:07.140 that's

00:50:07.960 the

00:50:08.100 truth

00:50:08.440 and

00:50:09.040 you

00:50:09.160 have

00:50:09.360 to

00:50:09.480 get

00:50:09.640 lucky

00:50:09.940 and

00:50:10.220 there

00:50:10.340 are

00:50:10.460 things

00:50:10.740 that

00:50:10.900 are

00:50:11.020 totally

00:50:11.540 outside

00:50:12.040 your

00:50:12.360 control

00:50:12.840 however

00:50:13.720 there

00:50:14.840 are

00:50:15.020 so

00:50:15.300 many

00:50:15.500 things

00:50:15.820 that

00:50:15.980 are

00:50:16.180 within

00:50:16.520 us

00:50:16.720 to

00:50:16.880 control

00:50:17.240 and

00:50:17.420 there

00:50:17.520 are

00:50:17.620 so

00:50:17.740 many

00:50:17.900 things

00:50:18.160 that

00:50:18.300 we

00:50:18.460 can

00:50:18.600 focus

00:50:18.940 on

00:50:19.160 and

00:50:19.280 over

00:50:19.460 the

00:50:19.660 long

00:50:19.900 term

00:50:20.200 skill

00:50:21.220 will

00:50:22.220 be

00:50:22.500 ascendant

00:50:23.180 if

00:50:23.500 you

00:50:23.820 can

00:50:24.320 make

00:50:24.580 it

00:50:24.760 to

00:50:25.040 the

00:50:25.180 long

00:50:25.420 term

00:50:25.700 and

00:50:26.280 so

00:50:26.560 it's

00:50:28.040 taught

00:50:28.380 me

00:50:28.640 to

00:50:29.240 let

00:50:30.280 go

00:50:30.540 of

00:50:30.700 the

00:50:30.840 things

00:50:31.100 that

00:50:31.440 are

00:50:31.800 outside

00:50:32.220 of

00:50:32.400 me

00:50:32.520 and

00:50:32.640 to

00:50:32.760 accept

00:50:33.080 them

00:50:33.260 to

00:50:33.440 accept

00:50:33.740 that

00:50:33.900 they're

00:50:34.060 always

00:50:34.340 going

00:50:34.540 to

00:50:34.720 exist

00:50:35.120 and

00:50:35.940 to

00:50:36.080 try

00:50:36.380 to

00:50:36.560 just

00:50:43.720 actually

00:50:43.980 do

00:50:44.380 and

00:50:45.100 that

00:50:45.520 means

00:50:45.980 working

00:50:46.320 much

00:50:46.560 more

00:50:46.740 on

00:50:46.860 myself

00:50:47.280 on

00:50:47.620 my

00:50:47.800 own

00:50:47.960 decisions

00:50:48.380 on

00:50:48.640 my

00:50:48.780 own

00:50:49.120 emotions

00:50:49.560 on

00:50:49.880 what

00:50:50.040 I

00:50:50.200 choose

00:50:50.640 and

00:50:50.880 don't

00:50:51.160 choose

00:50:51.460 to

00:50:51.660 do

00:50:51.960 and

00:50:52.700 also

00:50:53.200 I

00:50:53.640 think

00:50:53.840 understanding

00:50:54.580 how

00:50:55.280 big a

00:50:55.840 role

00:50:56.020 luck

00:50:56.260 plays

00:50:56.560 in

00:50:56.720 lives

00:50:57.060 makes

00:50:58.580 you

00:50:58.900 a

00:50:59.200 better

00:50:59.380 person

00:50:59.920 and

00:51:00.260 a

00:51:00.380 less

00:51:00.540 judgmental

00:51:01.160 person

00:51:01.480 you

00:51:01.740 realize

00:51:02.380 how

00:51:03.160 lucky

00:51:03.440 you

00:51:03.680 are

00:51:04.040 and

00:51:04.840 that

00:51:06.460 you

00:51:06.620 should

00:51:06.840 use

00:51:07.100 that

00:51:07.380 luck

00:51:07.700 to

00:51:08.180 help

00:51:08.460 other

00:51:08.700 people

00:51:09.080 who

00:51:09.580 aren't

00:51:10.200 as

00:51:10.400 lucky

00:51:10.680 who

00:51:11.300 weren't

00:51:11.600 born

00:51:11.880 in

00:51:12.040 the

00:51:12.140 right

00:51:12.280 place

00:51:12.580 at

00:51:12.740 the

00:51:12.840 right

00:51:13.000 time

00:51:13.420 who

00:51:14.120 weren't

00:51:15.340 born

00:51:15.600 to

00:51:15.820 the

00:51:15.980 parents

00:51:16.240 you

00:51:16.440 were

00:51:16.580 born

00:51:16.840 to

00:51:17.100 who

00:51:17.360 weren't

00:51:17.620 born

00:51:17.840 in

00:51:17.960 the

00:51:18.060 country

00:51:18.380 you

00:51:18.580 were

00:51:18.700 born

00:51:18.920 to

00:51:19.140 there's

00:51:20.460 so

00:51:20.740 much

00:51:21.040 luck

00:51:21.420 in

00:51:21.720 birth

00:51:22.060 and

00:51:22.840 that's

00:51:23.540 not

00:51:23.720 something

00:51:24.020 that you

00:51:24.300 have

00:51:24.460 any

00:51:24.640 control

00:51:25.040 over

00:51:25.400 and

00:51:25.860 that's

00:51:26.080 something

00:51:26.320 that

00:51:26.520 determines

00:51:26.880 the

00:51:27.140 course

00:51:27.340 of

00:51:27.480 your

00:51:27.600 entire

00:51:27.920 life

00:51:28.380 so

00:51:29.000 I

00:51:29.120 think

00:51:29.300 that

00:51:29.500 it's

00:51:29.820 a

00:51:30.020 powerful

00:51:30.380 lesson

00:51:30.920 in

00:51:31.660 using

00:51:32.180 luck

00:51:32.800 when

00:51:33.060 you

00:51:33.180 have

00:51:33.480 it

00:51:33.640 spreading

00:51:34.400 it

00:51:34.620 out

00:51:34.840 and

00:51:35.060 trying

00:51:35.300 your

00:51:35.500 best

00:51:35.860 to

00:51:36.360 help

00:51:37.300 people

00:51:37.620 who

00:51:37.840 weren't

00:51:38.140 as

00:51:38.280 lucky

00:51:38.500 as

00:51:38.720 you

00:51:38.880 were

00:51:39.120 well

00:51:39.760 maria

00:51:40.000 where can

00:51:40.280 people go

00:51:40.660 to learn

00:51:40.940 more about

00:51:41.440 the book

00:51:41.980 and the rest

00:51:42.320 of your

00:51:42.500 work

00:51:42.780 i have a

00:51:43.940 website

00:51:44.360 maria

00:51:44.740 konnikova.com

00:51:45.780 i don't upload

00:51:46.660 it or update

00:51:47.700 nearly as often

00:51:49.060 as i should

00:51:49.660 but i do

00:51:50.620 tweet a lot

00:51:51.500 so on twitter

00:51:52.180 i'm at

00:51:52.800 mkonnikova

00:51:53.620 and i'm also

00:51:54.420 on instagram

00:51:55.220 as girl named

00:51:56.680 maria but

00:51:57.280 girl doesn't

00:51:57.840 have an i

00:51:58.420 in it

00:51:58.800 it's just

00:51:59.220 g-r-l

00:51:59.740 because someone

00:52:00.400 else stole

00:52:00.940 the username

00:52:02.080 that i

00:52:02.460 wanted

00:52:02.820 that happens

00:52:04.240 sometimes

00:52:04.600 well maria

00:52:05.080 konnikova

00:52:05.480 thanks so much

00:52:05.900 for your time

00:52:06.080 it's been a

00:52:06.420 pleasure

00:52:06.660 thank you so

00:52:07.700 much for

00:52:08.000 having me

00:52:08.620 my guest

00:52:09.340 today was

00:52:09.560 maria

00:52:09.800 konnikova

00:52:10.300 she's the

00:52:10.700 author of

00:52:11.080 the book

00:52:11.360 the biggest

00:52:11.840 bluff

00:52:12.260 it's available

00:52:12.640 on amazon.com

00:52:13.520 and bookstores

00:52:13.960 everywhere

00:52:14.320 you can find

00:52:14.900 out more

00:52:15.140 information

00:52:15.400 about her

00:52:15.640 work at

00:52:15.980 our website

00:52:16.480 maria

00:52:16.940 konnikova.com

00:52:18.320 also check

00:52:18.980 out our

00:52:19.180 show notes

00:52:19.500 at

00:52:19.660 aom.is

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The Art of Manliness - July 31, 2025

#637： What Poker Can Teach You About Luck, Skill, and Mastering Yourself

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