From Plane Crashes to Terrorist Attacks — Who Survives, and Why
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Summary
Amanda Ripley spent years researching how humans actually respond in emergencies, interviewing their survivors, and interviewing leading researchers in her book The Unthinkable: Who survives when disaster strikes? She uncovers the myths and realities of survival psychology and explores the individual and structural factors that shape people s outcomes in unexpected crises. Today, Amanda explains why the biggest threat during an emergency isn t panic, but passivity, and how to overcome the tendency to be overly complacent and compliant.
Transcript
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brett mckay here and welcome to another edition of the art of manliness podcast
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you're on an airplane that crash lands smoke fills the cabin and you only got seconds to react
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how would you respond would you immediately take action or freeze in place while you might think
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you know how a scene like this would play out from watching movies the reality of what occurs
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in the aftermath of a disaster is quite a bit different and that knowledge gap could prove
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deadly my guest amanda ripley spent years researching how humans actually respond in
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emergencies interviewing their survivors as well as leading researchers in her book the unthinkable
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who survives when disaster strikes and why she uncovers the myths and realities of survival
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psychology and explores the individual and structural factors that shape people's outcomes
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and unexpected crises today amanda explains why the biggest threat during an emergency isn't panic
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but passivity and how to overcome the tendency to be overly complacent and compliant we discuss why
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you might actually want to read the airplane safety card what we can learn from the surprising calm that
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prevailed in the world trade center towers on 9-11 how to improve your risk assessment what influences
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if you'll act heroically in an emergency and much more this episode will give you plenty to think about
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it could even make the difference in how you respond if you're ever faced with the unthinkable
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after the show's over check out our show notes at aom.is slash disaster
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all right amanda ripley welcome to the show thanks for having me brett good to be here
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so back in 2008 you put out a book called the unthinkable and it's all about the psychology
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and sociology of disasters and survivals how humans behave in a disaster situation
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what was the original spark behind the book the unthinkable well way back for the original version of the book
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i had been covering disaster after disaster after disaster for time magazine at the time
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from 9-11 in manhattan to hurricanes katrina and rita in new orleans to european heat wave that
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it's easy to forget killed 50 000 people in europe one summer um so it just seemed like we were doing
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a lot of stories about loss and grief and blame but there was one kind of story that we didn't do as
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much which was what can we learn from the survivors of these things like what did actually feel like
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physically mentally even socially to survive a disaster and what i had noticed interviewing
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survivors is that every single one had things they wish they had known things that they wanted
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the rest of us to know so that's what led me to write the book and then you recently came out with
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an updated version why updated nearly 20 years later well it's funny it wasn't my idea i wish i could
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say it was but basically during the pandemic the publisher noticed an uptick in sales and they reached
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out to me to say hey this book could probably use an update i mean it's actually kind of astounding how
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much had changed since 2008 i mean you know that was before smartphones social media uh before like the
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level political polarization we have before so many things that have changed since then and of course
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the pandemic itself being a massive global disaster made it feel like yeah we we gotta update this thing
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before you began researching and writing this book way way back how did you think people typically
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responded in disasters and emergency situations it's a good question i mean i think i thought it was
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like in the movies you know i mean i thought like that people would kind of panic and freak out and you
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know just behave terribly and it was really it was really the interviews with probably starting with the
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survivors of the world trade center after 9-11 who piqued my curiosity because they said actually it was
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like really quiet and calm in the stairwells and people were moving really slowly so it wasn't
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the kind of mayhem that i had expected and that was kind of one of the first things where i was like
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huh there's more here that i don't understand yeah and something you the argument you make in the book
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is that our erroneous understanding of how humans behave in disasters i think people have that typical
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idea that you had like oh but there's a disaster everyone just freaks out um but that erroneous
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understanding actually contributes to us not being prepared for them yeah it's much more insidious than it
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seems like probably one of the biggest threats to our civilization is the low expectations that
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the people in charge have for us and that we have for each other in disaster so it sounds dramatic the
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way i'm saying it but again and again and again in my reporting i saw examples of people in positions of
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authority assuming that the public was going to panic and freak out and so then not sharing facts
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with them and not helping them make informed decisions because of that distrust for the public
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which of course then runs both ways right the public distrusts authority figures and that distrust
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is a major feature of the updated version of the book because it's gotten so much worse
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since the book first came out and it's unto itself a significant threat yeah a point you make is that
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because people in authority mistrust the public that oh these are a bunch of just crazy people who just
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they've lost their minds we can't trust them instead of dealing with the people problem dealing with
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the humans what they typically resort to is well how can we use technology or how can we manipulate
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the environment to get people to do what we want for them disasters are technology issue not a human
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issue exactly and i think that's i mean we see that a lot right in education and other fields where we
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think if we can just invest enough gear then we can save ourselves and and it really wildly
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underestimates i and i speak for myself i wildly underestimated the human factor as you say you know
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it's we have a lot of incredible tools now to help us get out of harm's way the thing we are not doing
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is incorporating psychology into how to use those tools because it doesn't matter how good your
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forecasting is or how incredible your vaccines are if people don't trust you and you don't trust them
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yes i know we'll talk about special forces guys today because that's some of the people you talk to
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in researching this book but i know they have a maxim that's it's humans over hardware so when
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they're planning a mission they don't worry about the tool so much those can come in handy but you got
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to think about the human element first yeah and that's one of the interesting things is that you'll see
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a lot of the research and reporting in the book comes from two categories which are military research
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u.s military research but also other places and then also plane crash analyses and and the reason
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for that is that those are two areas in which researchers have really been investing in
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trying to understand human psychology under duress and in other places there's much less of that so even
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though plane crashes are not likely to happen we can learn a lot about human behavior under duress
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because you know psychologists and sociologists have looked really closely at these disasters
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so you organize the book along what you call the survival arc it's this process that we all go
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through whenever we encounter a disaster the three parts of the arc are denial deliberation and decisive
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action let's talk about denial first you mentioned you talked to survivors of the world trade
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center attacks and the thing that surprised you was just like how slow people were and then survivors
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describing how people kind of acted like nothing was wrong initially so tell us more about that like
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what was the typical response of someone like they felt the building kind of rock and shake they heard a
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loud explosion what did people do because i would think oh man get out of there as soon as possible that
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didn't happen right no so there is a kind of immediate return to normalcy so your brain tries to fit what's
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happening into everything that's happened before which makes total sense and works 99 of the time
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right and if you haven't been in a disaster like that or trained for it in a realistic way then your
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brain will try to just put it away and carry on so in this case you know i talk about elia zedeno who
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was a survivor from the world trade center and she said you know the building just rocked i mean in a way
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it had never before when that first plane hit and she remembers grabbing onto her desk at her cubicle
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to port authority and lifting her feet up off the ground and yelling what is going on because it
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really felt like it was going to fall over so it was not a normal or subtle experience but yet she said
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later everything in her body wanted someone to yell back nothing it's fine and kind of return to
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normalcy and so she felt herself not wanting to evacuate but luckily in her case somebody yelled
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back get out of the building which is a great example of how like assertive commands can break
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through that initial denial but even then she found herself sort of walking in circles looking for
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things to take with her which is very normal we see this on plane crashes as well like people want to
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you know they're delaying they're delaying the evacuation for different reasons including let me just
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note that in the world trade center in certain parts of that complex people heard official
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commands to stay in place which was the protocol for skyscraper disasters so literally they're being
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told not to evacuate in some cases in other cases we just procrastinate leaving even when there's smoke
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filling the ceiling and there are good reasons for this but it can be really dangerous so it's something
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to kind of expect and notice i yeah i can notice it in myself now i'll notice that i'm kind of not
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reacting and that i'm hoping it goes away and i'll try to push through that phase yeah that was one of
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the biggest takeaways from the book and i think about it all the time that normalcy bias like we all have
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it i have to remind myself if something crazy happens in my day-to-day life like a disaster an emergency
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i have to remind myself my initial reaction is gonna be like oh yeah this is i'll try to figure out a
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way like how everything is normal i'll try to convince myself that everything's okay yeah when
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it's not and i think about this a lot my wife and i think about this a lot and we get on an airplane
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because you talk about one of the things they found in airplane crashes whenever there's an accident
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and people are able to get out well that's another myth that people have about airplane crashes
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most of them are actually pretty survivable except for the we always see the really catastrophic ones
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but a lot of ones you have a chance to get out before the plane goes up in flames but one thing
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that happens is people just kind of sit there even though the plane's on fire and they're just acting
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like nothing's going on yeah it was a real mystery for a while when there were more plane crashes
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happening like in the 70s and researchers and forensics teams would find people just sitting in their seats
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you know they just died from the smoke but they were on the ground they just had to get out of the
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plane and they hadn't gotten out fast enough but before we talk about that let me go back to your
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other point which is that actually most serious plane accidents are survivable which is fairly
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shocking right and but the statistics are very clear that of all passengers involved in serious
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accidents between 1983 and 2017 i think it is 59 percent survived 59 percent survived and serious is
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defined there by the national transportation safety board as accidents involving fire severe injury and
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substantial aircraft damage so you know that is serious and yet 59 percent of people survive but
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survival depends often on the behavior of the passengers and so that's what these researchers have learned
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from these different plane crashes is that people will especially if they've been trained to become
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passive victims which i think we probably have by the time you get on an airplane right if you make it
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through tsa and everything else you're kind of beaten down and you're not in charge and you know that
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right and so that influences our behavior and so when something goes wrong it's very easy to kind of fall into
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this strange sort of lethargy which researchers call negative panic interestingly so it's not that we
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start you know punching each other out and and i mean that can happen but it's very rare much more likely is
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we just don't move okay what else is going on psychologically so there's the normalcy bias
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there's this negative panic anything else going on that causes that sort of just we're not doing
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anything taking action whenever we see a disaster happen yeah this is an interesting one because the
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research on this is that like pretty much every mammal that's ever been tested freezes if it faces what
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it perceives to be a serious threat and doesn't know how to get out right so they feel trapped
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and they're frightened so the animal research on this kind of coincides with the human research which is
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that we do kind of shut down under an extreme threat especially when we feel trapped and
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there could be good evolutionary reasons for that right like you know you always hear that old like
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playing dead that you know if you're being attacked by a predator and the predator thinks you're dead
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then you're less appealing it's hard to sort out right what is causing what here and what is adaptive
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and what is not except that we know in many modern catastrophes where you need to evacuate out of a
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city or a plane or whatever it is that response doesn't serve you well typically so how do you overcome
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those biases of inaction whenever you encounter a disaster there are at least two good answers to
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that and probably many more but the first is assertive commands really help so if you are in a situation
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where you know something is not right and you are very uh kind of clear sometimes yelling to other
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people that they need to get out they will often kind of snap out of it and move people often become
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really compliant in disasters because evolutionarily it's in our interest to stick with the group
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and so leadership can be really effective and kind of piercing that lethargy um the other thing and of
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course you know you're counting on the leader to know what they're doing right because you could be
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led poorly in the wrong direction but this is how they now train flight attendants is if there is an
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emergency evacuation they really do scream at you and i did go through some training with them they
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scream at you to not take your bags to unbuckle your seatbelt to get off the plane and it does kind
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of focus the mind so that is the good news the other thing that really helps is any kind of training or
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even just situational awareness so if you've counted the number of rows between you and the closest
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emergency exit in advance you know which i just do i'm waiting for the plane to take off because
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of nothing else to do then that's kind of like in your brain and it might help you when you can't see
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which is how so most plane crashes you end up on the ground but you have to get off really quickly and
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smoke fills the plane really fast so you can't really see your hand in front of your face so knowing how
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many rows and whether you should go forward or back is is really helpful and even better is having
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some muscle memory for evacuating let's say you work in a skyscraper if you haven't taken the stairs
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you should do that at least try to take uh you know five or ten sets of stairs so you have the muscle
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memory for doing that okay some things you can do um assertive command so if you see something
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happening you see people kind of just milling about like start yelling at them it's for their good and
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you're good because you know if they don't get out of the way you can't get out either and then also
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practice but if you can't practice just like have a plan when you sit down i do that on the plane too
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when i get on it's kind of morbid but i always i i look at the card and then i always look for the
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exits and then i i kind of i mean i kind of go through a situation like what am i going to do
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if there's an accident and i don't know how much it does but it helps me at least think about it
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so that if that does happen i'll have something to do like i have an action plan right right so
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you're not just become you don't just become a passive recipient of the disaster i think that's
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right and i think even looking at the card is kind of interesting right my husband does that too and he
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i think it it always like makes people around him kind of wonder what's going on you know because no
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one looks at the card the safety briefing card but they are kind of interesting and it is funny how
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different they are one from the next depending on the airline and some of them are really clear and
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effective and some of them are hilarious and some of them are confusing but i do recommend that and
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there is actually research that shows that people who have done that and or paid attention during the
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safety briefing do have a better chance of survival because it's just kind of like you have something
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to work with yeah i like to look at the card just not only for preparation but the illustrations are
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often funny yeah there's this one they had like this baby that looked like bobby hill from
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king of the hill with like the inflatable thing yes yeah some of them are really classic so that's
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that's good fun okay so besides this normalcy bias that causes us to not take action when a disaster
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strikes another thing that contributes to us not taking action is we miscalculate the risk involved
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in the situation and you talk about how that played out during hurricane katrina so what went on there
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yeah i mean in general we don't look at risk as you know a sort of rational assessment we that's not
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how humans are wired right so we we actually use an emotion that is called dread which i think is you know
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well named and we sense how much dread we feel for any given risk and that dread equation is based on a
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bunch of different factors if you break it down in the research and some of those factors are
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how unfair the threat feels like it you know if it feels like particularly unfair for some terrible
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thing to happen like a plane to drop out of the sky like just there's nothing you can do that's very
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scary that's a lot of dread there or if it feels like a at scale right with a bus crash is scarier to
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us than an individual car crash right even if you had 20 of them so scale matters the familiarity
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matters our experiences in the past matter how much pain and suffering we think would be involved
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matter that's why you know cancer seems to feel like more dreadful than maybe a heart attack so it's
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worth just noticing the different variables that go into that i don't think we should expect that we
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would be you know totally rational but it's worth noticing that and noticing if you want to dial down
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the dread factor for a given risk that you just want to get more comfortable with breaking it into
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those pieces can be helpful and seeing if you can lower any one of those variables as opposed to just
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kind of gutting it out yeah i think that was interesting because that dread idea explains like why
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we don't find driving in a car scary like we know that's a that's a good risk to take but airplanes
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like oh man even though the research shows to show that you're more likely to die driving in a car than
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flying in an airplane right and we see this happen after you know major disasters like after 9-11 and
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during the pandemic a lot of people choose to drive instead of flying places because it feels so much
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less dreadful yeah because when you're driving you have control like i'm i'm driving my car when
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you're in a plane like i have no i'm in this tin can and i can't do anything right yeah exactly so
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control is another important piece of it right like how much control do i have and then like the scale
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destruction in an airplane crash just seems bigger than a car crash because you see what a plane crash
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looks like on tv it's like oh my gosh it leaves a big giant hole in the ground and there's fire
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everywhere a car crash your car just looks smashed up right that's it right yeah right and so we can
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make a lot of mistakes that way right i mean and you know i always try to remind myself and my family
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that driving to the airport is the scariest part of the trip like from a risk perspective and just
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trying to remind ourselves of that so that we're a little more awake and vigilant but it's hard to do
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i mean and we do make a ton of mistakes around i mean we know from the research that after 9-11
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because driving felt safer and many people made that exchange about 2 302 additional americans
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were likely killed because they drove instead of flying somewhere and that's a study by three
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cornell university professors so you know again understandable but that's a good example of how
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our risk perception doesn't always lead us to to safety well going back to hurricane katrina you
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highlight that there's a lot of people who even though they got the warnings to evacuate and there
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was actually like yeah you got to get out it was like a an order like you got to get out of here
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they decided to stay put why did those individuals decide to stay put and how did a miscalculation of
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risk contribute to that yeah so it's interesting i mean one of the frustrating things about disasters is
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that the really good research doesn't come out until like years later when the news cycle has
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totally moved on but we now know uh that age was the most important risk factor for katrina in
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particular people older people i mean obviously other things mattered poverty mattered race mattered but
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age mattered most older people did not evacuate and there were lots of reasons for that or they were
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less likely to evacuate i should say lots of reasons for that but one reason is that they'd experienced a lot
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of really bad hurricanes before so they assumed that this wouldn't be worse and they were right
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which is important like they were not wrong hurricane katrina was not the strongest storm that the gulf
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coast had experienced it's just we had changed the shape of the gulf coast like we had dense vertical
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cities we'd removed a lot of the buffer that used to protect us from those storms from the coastline
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so the storm was not more dangerous but it was we were more vulnerable because of the way we've
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developed these cities so yeah in that case their risk analysis made sense and some and other you know
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in many cases maybe they didn't have a way out in some cases in other cases they just you know didn't
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want to sit in a car with six other people and a dog for 12 hours like they'd had bad evacuation
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experiences which also is very salient right in the mind and the memory so they had different reasons
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but age was a a real clear risk factor there so what do we do about our poor ability to calculate
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risk how do we overcome that well this is where i think we need to do a better job helping each other
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at this point you know we have a lot of data that could help us really rank the risk based on where we
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live and how we live and what's important to us so it's a little frustrating to me that still i don't
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see certainly the federal government has not done a great job of helping us with this there are some
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siloed examples of you know some flood maps and different things that can help you but there's
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not like one place you can go and plug in your information and know okay here's what i should be
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most worried about here's what's most dangerous but least likely here's what's most likely and just
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kind of help you sort out that risk if you want that help and there are lots of reasons for that but one
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of the reasons is that typically the work in this area is very siloed so it's like there's people who
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study floods and then there's people who study earthquakes and they're in separate worlds and so
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even though really they should all be talking to each other and again the public should be part of that
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conversation it's sometimes hard to find but there are some resources out there and i include some in
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the book but it's not as easy to find as i think it should be because you can't just rely on your
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intuition particularly when we live in such a densely populated interdependent world you just
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can't go with your gut i wonder whenever i think about risk and thinking like how to calculate better
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i often wonder if i start like studying probability be like nasim talib we've had on the podcast and you
00:25:14.960
interviewed him for your book like should i study like statistics would that make me better i mean did
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you go down that rabbit hole like i'm going to learn probability so i can yeah be better at risk analysis
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it sort of depends on your personality like my dad's some like computer scientist a mathematician
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like people like that like they can for certain things they can do that you know and just really
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go with the data but even they have huge blind spots like things that they don't that they're more
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frightened of or less frightened of so i think it's i think it's tricky i will say interviewing people
00:25:45.820
who study risk analysis did help me a little with that because you just start to notice like i would
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just ask every single one of them like given what you know what do you worry most about and the answers
00:25:57.260
were often aligned you know with their actual risk so you know what is most dangerous for most people
00:26:04.100
well it's pretty clear you know it's like car accident stroke heart attack cancer or suicide
00:26:12.140
like those are the things you know and then what about like quote-unquote natural hazards floods
00:26:17.080
are a huge huge problem extreme weather extreme storms so those are the things and they're not
00:26:23.940
always the same things that haunt us the same things that occupy our imagination but those are
00:26:29.220
the things that they tend to worry about most and i will say those interviews left me much more
00:26:33.600
anxious about driving regular driving in a car than i was before so i'm not sure it's great but i'm
00:26:39.880
more aware of that threat whether that's translated into you know a better behavior i don't know because
00:26:46.080
if you're more nervous about something that can lead to worse performance we're gonna take a quick
00:26:50.520
break for your word from our sponsors and now back to the show so that's the denial part of this
00:26:58.280
survival arc so we have a tendency whenever we see a disaster or part of a disaster to resort to a
00:27:04.860
normalcy bias we're just like oh everything's fine i want everything to be fine we act like everything's
00:27:09.220
fine we're bad at miscalculating risks so that can also lead to an action let's move to the
00:27:14.700
deliberation phase of the survival arc and you start the section talking about the fear response we
00:27:21.060
kind of talked about a little bit earlier how you know all mammals have this fear response what's going
00:27:27.020
on physiologically in our body in our brain when we experience the fear response yeah so for that part
00:27:34.760
of the book i kind of tried to do a slow motion analysis of a shooting hostage taking event at an
00:27:43.840
embassy because i was able to talk to people on both sides of it like the hostage takers and the
00:27:51.080
hostages because it happened a while ago and kind of help piece together what they experienced because
00:27:56.660
you know it turns out the experience is very similar even though you're on opposite sides of that fight i
00:28:02.020
mean the human fear response is very primal so the first thing that happened in this case is that
00:28:08.520
one of the diplomats who was taken hostage she's at this party you know and it's a fancy event and
00:28:12.920
all of a sudden he hears gunshots and so when he detects that sound even before he realizes what's
00:28:20.100
happening a signal travels to his brain and the signal reaches his brainstem and passes on this
00:28:25.960
information to his amygdala which we've probably all heard about at this point which is sort of
00:28:30.140
central to managing threats and the amygdala then sets off a bunch of changes throughout your body
00:28:36.020
like you kind of transform into survival mode without any conscious decision making and there
00:28:43.240
are pros and cons to everything that happens next so you get certain superpowers and you lose certain
00:28:49.080
powers so you probably don't feel fear at this point he doesn't remember feeling afraid yet but your body is
00:28:55.980
subconsciously responding to this threat and that means the chemistry of your blood literally changes so
00:29:02.200
that it's able to coagulate more easily if need be your blood vessels constrict so you'll bleed less if
00:29:07.160
you get hurt your blood pressure your heart rate shoot up you get a bunch of hormones like a cocktail of
00:29:13.280
of hormones particularly cortisol and adrenaline that surge through your system and give your gross
00:29:19.360
motor muscles a sort of boost so that's important but again for every gift your brain gives you
00:29:25.900
in danger it takes one away you know you have limited resources so yes your muscles become
00:29:33.380
taught and ready and your body is creating its own natural painkillers but you lose the ability to reason
00:29:40.060
and perceive your surroundings so you just cannot think cortisol interferes with the part of the brain
00:29:46.640
that handles complex thinking and by complex i mean basically any thinking so we suddenly have trouble
00:29:51.980
solving problems like how to put on a life jacket or unbuckle a seat belt often survivors would tell
00:29:57.980
me about losing certain they lose peripheral vision that's almost guaranteed but sometimes they lose all
00:30:04.140
vision like they go temporarily blind or they lose their sense of hearing so it's it's a really mixed bag
00:30:11.280
but all these things are happening without your control but it's a it's a way to keep you alive
00:30:17.340
yeah the tunnel vision that's one thing that happens everything your focus narrows uh sometimes
00:30:22.340
people like they don't hear things they can't even hear loud bangs like guns that are fired right by
00:30:27.040
the ear they don't hear it which is wild because we don't think of hearing as something you can turn
00:30:32.420
off i mean you can't close your ears right but it turns out your brain can if it's motivated so yeah and
00:30:39.520
then complex motor skills go out the like so like i know this is a problem with uh soldiers or law
00:30:45.840
enforcement officers once they get into that sort of uh freeze mode they have a hard time manipulating
00:30:52.860
their gun and things like that and that can cause problems yeah like i talk in the book about a police
00:30:58.340
officer who was um running from someone with a gun and he actually dropped his weapon you know he's no
00:31:03.840
memory of him it's it's just you lose eye hand coordination so there was a study of 115 police officers
00:31:09.580
involved in a serious shooting and 90 reported having some kind of dissociative symptom like
00:31:16.240
numbing or loss of awareness or memory problems sometimes it feels like you're having an out-of-body
00:31:21.860
experience and again there's understandable reasons for that but um it's sort of your brain's
00:31:27.820
last line of defense and it's trying to help you survive but sometimes it it can be a liability
00:31:33.020
is there any variability in demographics and how people respond to highly stressful situations are
00:31:39.000
some people more prone to have the freeze response than others yeah i mean there's some research on this
00:31:47.040
and not a ton but from what we can tell there are some people who are just like weirdly immune
00:31:55.740
it's not that they don't get afraid it's not that their heart rate doesn't go up they still get those
00:31:59.560
things but they're able to recover more quickly and they don't go as far down that path so a little
00:32:07.920
bit of stress we know is good for you wakes you up gets you like going but too much and then you start
00:32:13.680
to get those negative side effects right where you can't think you can't operate so there's kind of
00:32:18.840
this green zone you want to be in that's somewhere in the middle and the military has found that there
00:32:24.580
are certain people especially people who end up in special operator roles who seem to be able to get
00:32:31.940
into that zone even under really extreme situations and there's a lot of like speculation about why and
00:32:39.380
how and but at the end of the day for most of us what we need to know is that relevant experience and
00:32:47.940
training can really help you get into that green zone you don't need to be a you know navy seal but
00:32:55.540
if you have a little bit of experience or training that helps a lot so that you can stay in that zone
00:33:01.140
the other thing that really helps and this is something the military uses sort of law enforcement
00:33:05.660
is practicing when you're not under stress practicing box breathing or different techniques that
00:33:12.980
the only way that we know of to kind of control your automatic fear response is through intentional
00:33:19.860
breathing and so that's something that you know is worth keeping in mind that if you want to kind of
00:33:26.020
find a way in the moment to to like control that fear response it's good to have practiced some form
00:33:33.980
of rhythmic breathing box breathing which you may know it's just you breathe in for four counts you hold for
00:33:38.840
four counts you exhale for four counts hold for four counts and then you just keep repeating it
00:33:43.840
yeah we've talked about box breathing on the podcast before i think it's a really useful tactic to keep
0.72
00:33:48.960
yourself calm whenever you have that initial fear response but how do you practice for disasters
00:33:54.120
because you had the opportunity to like go to oklahoma city where they have the faa like plane crash
00:34:01.240
school where they study plane crashes and you got to do a simulated plane crash how do you do that
00:34:07.100
if you're just a regular person well i always i used to have this dream that they would be like
00:34:11.260
a disaster a national disaster museum where everyone could try those things you know like play with the
00:34:16.900
stuff because there's like really amazing simulations out there oh did you mention this in the book there
00:34:21.580
was like someone who had the idea before you get on the plane like have a little area in the airport
00:34:26.180
where you could practice going down the the yellow slide and putting on the vest for kids for kids
00:34:31.080
actually yeah but they were like no we don't want to do because i'll just freak people out
00:34:34.640
right right which is such a shame because you know people are already scared a lot of people are
00:34:40.460
really scared of flying and they don't always talk about it because there's shame around it but
00:34:44.880
it's a real it's a real fear so so not talking about it doesn't help but i think there could be a lot
00:34:51.260
more creativity in helping people train for this stuff so it's less daunting um you know going down
00:34:57.360
those escape slides from planes are quite steep so like if you've never done it before you know it can
00:35:02.160
really give you pause at the top but i think if you've done it even once in your life like i really
00:35:06.700
think even once gives you that muscle memory and so you just jump but look to answer your question
00:35:13.020
in the meantime until we get the cool museums and the playgrounds at the airports i think it's first
00:35:18.800
thinking about two things what do you feel the most dread about like what are you most afraid of
00:35:24.120
and then second thing can you figure out what your biggest risk is given how you live your life
00:35:28.920
where you live because it's different right depending on different places and then trying
00:35:33.180
to find ways to if you can't train then at least really learn more about those threats so that
00:35:39.920
they're less terrifying a lot of this is kind of exposure therapy right the more you kind of in a
00:35:45.760
contained safe way can expose yourself in small doses to these things by learning about them the less
00:35:52.920
terrifying they might be i mean that doesn't mean you go watch like a horror movie about like you know
00:35:59.140
like a virus destroying everyone and think that's going to help you with a pandemic that's not what
00:36:03.700
i'm saying i'm saying like in sort of immerse yourself in sober like reliable trustworthy research
00:36:10.060
that's different than like in uh hollywood approach to this so i think that's something to think about is
00:36:15.660
like what is the thing you're most afraid of and what is the thing that is most likely to
00:36:20.280
threaten you and and what you hold dear and trying to learn more about what those things have looked
00:36:25.760
like in the past how you can prepare for them and what to do and what are the mistakes you make i mean
00:36:31.040
the good news is the behavior is the same like it's the same mistakes no matter what the threat is it's the
00:36:36.540
delay and the denial those are the things that are going to trip most of us up so just knowing that
00:36:43.860
even if you don't know what the threat's going to be can be helpful so uh yeah if your office does fire
00:36:49.400
drills take them seriously if they don't do fire drills like take the stairs instead of taking
00:36:55.500
the elevator to your office to get out of the office thank you brett for giving us like a
00:36:59.560
practical answer to that question i'm like going on and on and on and there's the answer like yeah
00:37:04.320
do the things that you can do take the drill seriously because your body needs some muscle
00:37:10.700
memory for this stuff and if you've never been in the stairwell if you know even when i'm in a
00:37:15.360
crowded theater or a crowded event um i'm noticing where the exits are and that's helpful so i think
00:37:21.980
taking those opportunities is really important and in the longer term taking every opportunity
00:37:27.820
to build relationship and trust with the people around you because those are going to be the people
00:37:33.980
that you're with those are the people who will save you or you'll need to save it's the people you
00:37:38.420
work with the people you live with in your neighborhood the strangers on the bus the people in your
00:37:43.380
community it's not going to be first responders because they just can't get there in time so
00:37:47.340
knowing that as i think has helped me also invest a little more in the place where i live and in those
00:37:54.940
community gatherings because i see them as a short and long-term investment let's start with this one
00:38:00.460
i always think about this incident that you talked about in the book the beverly hills supper club fire
00:38:05.560
now for those who aren't familiar with supper clubs this is like a thing in the midwest
00:38:10.240
where it's basically like a private dinner club for middle class people is what i've i've gathered
00:38:17.380
there's one that was kind of a little fancier called the beverly hills supper club big fire there
00:38:22.360
and use this to explore the sociology of disaster like how do we behave in groups whenever there's
00:38:28.860
disaster so what can the beverly hills supper club fire tell us about groupthink and disasters
00:38:35.060
yeah so this is a good example of how people behave when they're in a crowded place and not expecting
00:38:42.920
anything bad to happen so you're just not again your brain is going to try to fit everything that's
00:38:47.660
happening into what's happened before and it was studied pretty carefully by some sociologists so it's
00:38:53.580
a really useful example but on the night of may 28th 1977 this beverly hills supper club which was
00:39:01.100
just south of cincinnati um a very you know kind of regal place filled with ballrooms and fountains
00:39:08.140
and gardens um and it was hosting many different events you know there was a wedding there was a you
00:39:14.480
know big dinner happening all different things happening in this place all of which were sort of
00:39:20.240
you know the opposite of a disaster and that's important because again your brain doesn't see it
00:39:25.420
coming but this fire it's an electrical fire had started in one room and it really tore through
00:39:31.940
the whole complex very quickly and at the time there were almost 3 000 people packed into the club
00:39:39.360
because i think it was memorial day weekend so it was really crowded there were like there was a dog
00:39:44.940
owners club on one in one room having a banquet in the crystal room and then doctors group were
00:39:51.640
together in the viennese room all these different groups there was like 400 people for an awards
00:39:56.840
banquet and then most of the remainder of the guests most of the guests were in the cabaret room which
00:40:02.200
was a ballroom and most of the people who died would die in that room in all the fire killed 167
00:40:08.880
people and so it became this mystery like what had happened here what could have gone differently so this
00:40:16.020
wouldn't happen again and became very closely studied by safety engineers to try to understand
00:40:22.060
how did this happen and there were some really hopeful lessons one that really stands out to me is that
00:40:28.420
the waiters and waitresses went to incredible lengths to get people out on average i talk about a bus
00:40:35.980
boy who really put himself at risk over and over again going back into the smoke to pull people out
00:40:41.860
cooks bus boys all these people men and women and that's partly because when your role is to be helpful
00:40:50.920
and be the host in a situation and then a disaster happens you tend to still obey according to that
00:40:57.740
role so if your role though is to be a guest at a banquet you're in a more passive position and you
00:41:04.940
also continue to play that role in the disaster so it's kind of interesting to see how that continues
00:41:11.620
now there was also denial there were people who are just not reacting but many of those employees
00:41:16.780
just behaved magnificently above and beyond what you would expect the problems included the fact
00:41:22.660
there were just not enough exits in the club and they were really hard to find and that was true of
00:41:26.740
the world trade center that's true of a lot of places like these places aren't really designed for
00:41:29.820
humans often like they're just kind of like mazes and so you know it it created in addition to
00:41:37.060
denial right it created dangerous delay so these sociologists norris johnson and william feinberg who
00:41:43.980
were professors at the university of cincinnati nearby they got really curious about what happened
00:41:49.740
here and they just you know dug into the research and found that an estimated 60 percent of the
00:41:56.640
employees had tried to help in some way but only 17 percent of the guests had helped so again your role
00:42:03.460
at the time really really matters and you talked about when guests did help they had a social role
00:42:12.060
as a helper like they're either a doctor or a nurse or an emt if they were that in their daily life then
00:42:19.640
they were like they were more prone to be a helper but if they weren't they weren't going to do anything
00:42:23.280
yeah like remember i said there were those doctors dining at the club they started administering cpr
00:42:28.760
and dressing wounds and nurses did the same thing there was even a hospital administrator there who
00:42:33.840
you know began organizing doctors and nurses so the kind of overarching lesson from the beverly hills
00:42:39.580
supper club fire is how well most people performed you know they thought they were going to find
00:42:46.300
pushing and chaos and selfish behavior but actually it was really orderly almost to a fault like people
00:42:53.640
were staying in line not pushing you know queuing up to get out and helping each other particularly
00:42:59.760
when they were in that role going into the event so it was not what they expected and it was one of the
00:43:05.880
big kind of eye-opening moments where we started questioning the hollywood stereotype about how people
00:43:14.200
behave in fact if anything the problems with the world trade center evacuation included the fact that people went
00:43:20.800
too slowly we tend to get very polite to strangers in these situations because we're scared and we need
00:43:27.440
each other yeah so i mean maybe the lesson there is if you are in a disaster scenario you have to
00:43:32.780
remind yourself i will probably default to my social role in this situation and that might not be the best
00:43:38.900
thing to do right right yeah like if you're an official role or in a helper type job for your day job
00:43:44.980
you may default to stepping up and taking action but if you're a guest somewhere you know a customer
00:43:50.640
know that you are apt to be passive and compliant and you may need to make an extra effort to snap
00:43:58.280
yourself out of just being passive another way your social role in a situation can affect your behavior
00:44:03.580
and i think about this all the time let's say you're you're in a restaurant or in a grocery store
00:44:08.700
and there's an active shooter situation the closest exit might be through the kitchen or through the
00:44:16.820
back of the grocery store but because you're in customer mode you're thinking i can only go through
00:44:21.820
the front door i can't go through the employee exit but then you have to remember that in an emergency
00:44:28.240
social roles are off the table i mean you can break social norms you got to get to the nearest exit
00:44:34.060
whether you're an employee or not right the sort of rule bound folks in the room are going to have to
00:44:39.800
like overcome that and and it's even true in a very small ways like you know just a few months ago i was
00:44:45.560
walking around washington dc where i live in dupont circle which is a you know pretty safe like affluent
00:44:51.480
neighborhood and it was like on a tuesday afternoon and just sunny day nothing big going on and i was
00:44:57.120
just walking down the street and i heard a gunshot at pretty close range and i looked around i couldn't
00:45:02.060
figure out where i was coming from but what was weird is everyone around me just kept walking and like
00:45:07.960
people were sipping their coffee and people were chatting and people were on their phones and it was
00:45:11.980
like it hadn't happened and then you know i remember i'm like okay just because no one else
00:45:18.480
is reacting doesn't mean they're right it's just they don't expect it here you know in this neighborhood
00:45:24.360
it's not your brain is just moved right past it so i again i couldn't figure out where it'd come from
00:45:29.600
but i knew i'd been in there on enough guns that i knew that was a gunshot and so i i just i knew it
00:45:34.840
wasn't coming from the subway so i just went down into the subway to leave the area and it was in fact
00:45:40.440
one driver shot another and anyway what i did not do was start screaming for everyone to run and clear
00:45:46.960
the area like i didn't take it that far maybe i should have maybe i shouldn't have i didn't hear
00:45:51.440
additional shots but you know it's like you're in the moment trying to balance like am i right or am
00:45:57.700
i overreacting here and you just usually don't know until it's too late is the thing you don't know
00:46:02.200
yeah that's another reason people don't take action because they don't want to be the weirdo
00:46:06.700
right it's like overreacting yeah cause you know people to think you're just like hypersensitive or
00:46:12.240
you know and i think the reality is if you're going to be that guy or that woman who does say
00:46:17.740
we get to evacuate for this fire drill even though you all think it's a joke people are going to think
00:46:22.080
you're the weirdo and that's that's probably worth it but there is a little bit of social
00:46:26.340
pressure that that you will face in that situation and so you don't want to you know make permanent
00:46:32.140
mistakes there that put people in more jeopardy but it is worth taking on a little bit of that
00:46:37.000
peer pressure and pushing through we've been talking about how most people in a disaster they're actually
00:46:41.220
very polite they're docile but occasionally panic does happen and you look at the muslim hajj what that
1.00
00:46:49.540
can teach us about panic and why it happens in groups so tell us about that i thought this was
00:46:54.180
really fascinating yeah so it's not that panic never happens and sometimes it's kind of annoying
00:47:00.300
because researchers on this will like constantly downplay and i think that's a mistake because i know
00:47:05.680
that what they're trying to do they're trying to make us less prone to assume there'll be panic but
00:47:10.100
that doesn't mean that it never happened so it's important to talk about when it does happen and why
00:47:16.040
the research on this is basically like yeah panic rarely happens but i think people feel panicky
00:47:23.460
in disasters like that's true when you're afraid you know your heart races your palms sweat your breath
00:47:29.400
is short that feels panicky that's not the same thing as like mobs of people freaking out so it's
00:47:35.800
almost like the word is inadequate to the task but when we're actually looking at okay when do groups of
00:47:41.360
people behave in an antisocial way it's usually when they feel trapped and like they might get out but
00:47:49.420
they might not and they also are in a system that they think is corrupt so there's certain conditions
00:47:55.640
that have to be met like they don't trust the setting and they think they may not get out so
00:48:03.220
there's kind of zero-sum situation but in the hajj so the hajj that you mentioned there's been like
00:48:09.480
series of really really tragic crowd crushes that have happened in the pilgrimages to that happened to
00:48:16.440
the hajj and for a long time some of the people in charge would blame the victims and say that they
00:48:23.500
had misbehaved and this is something you hear a lot after crowd crushes and the research on this
00:48:30.140
is pretty clear that that's that's not what happened that basically usually in crowd crushes
00:48:35.140
and stampedes like that first of all it's just too dense there are too many people in too small a space
00:48:40.280
so the design and management of the crowd is a problem and then what happens is you kind of lose
00:48:45.620
control over your bodily movements because it's so tight and then someone falls down up ahead of you
00:48:51.440
and then that causes other people to sort of surge forward right because they don't know that
00:48:57.300
someone's falling down so it's a lack of communication on top of everything else in the way most people
00:49:02.600
die in crowd crushes is asphyxiation it's not that people are trampling you with all that that happens
00:49:08.500
but it's that you don't get enough air and the compounding force of many rows of people behind you
00:49:14.500
in big crowds it's like a mack truck i mean the pressure on the people in front and if they don't
00:49:21.440
know that people have fallen they just kind of keep moving forward in the direction they were already
00:49:25.360
moving and then that compounds that pressure so this might look like panic and then of course people
00:49:31.080
are struggling to breathe and to get to the top of the pile it might look like panic but it's not like
00:49:37.700
people are punching each other out and misbehaving it's like people are getting really pressed to
00:49:44.160
death and so that's a design and crowd management problem it's not really uh that the people
00:49:50.460
themselves misbehaved and it sounds like they've taken measures to reduce or prevent those type of
00:49:57.880
things happening during the haj right yeah because they've learned it's a physics problem you know like
00:50:02.260
that is a physics problem you need to design and manage the crowd differently and a lot of big crowd
00:50:07.900
events if you look at times square in new york city on new york's eve they are managed really well you
00:50:13.520
want like a square meter around you of space and if you have less than that you can get in trouble
00:50:18.800
so the advice to individuals is look if you're in a really crowded situation try to to slowly gradually
00:50:25.300
move to the edge of the crowd where you have a little less a little lower odds of getting crushed
00:50:30.180
but the best advice is to the organizers of these events right is you really have to be able to
00:50:35.180
communicate with the crowd and keep people from getting into too dense of a scenario and that's
00:50:40.680
what they've gotten much better at at the haj although there are still problems okay so we've
00:50:44.840
talked about the first two parts of the survival arc there's denial people often don't immediately
00:50:50.100
recognize the danger or you know downplay its seriousness they may freeze delay action you know just carry
00:50:57.880
on like nothing's wrong then there's deliberation and that's when people begin to assess what's
00:51:04.120
happening and consider their options and sometimes if people are overwhelmed by stress or if they're
00:51:09.380
unprepared they get stuck in deliberation but but hopefully maybe if you've rehearsed the scenario
00:51:17.000
before you can stay calm and then you can enter into the third part of the survival arc and that's
00:51:22.500
decisive action and one thing you talk about in this part of the book is that some people don't
00:51:29.060
just take action to save themselves but they try to save others and we talked about this a little
00:51:34.440
before that people sometimes help others in an emergency but let's talk more about when people are
00:51:40.080
out and out heroes they may not even be directly involved in the situation that's going on but they may
00:51:45.400
jump in and risk their lives to save someone else what did you learn about that like why would
00:51:51.360
someone who doesn't even know the person who's you know in the freezing cold water drowning why would
00:51:57.780
they jump in and try to save that person yeah i mean the research on this is really like frustrating
00:52:04.080
like there's not it's very hard because one person's hero who jumped in and saved someone else can be
00:52:09.780
another disaster's victim or like fool like if you jump into a really threatening situation and die or make
00:52:16.360
things worse then it's a different storyline so it's really tricky but i did try to find research
00:52:22.640
that is out there and first of all i interviewed a lot of people that other people have called heroes
00:52:27.660
and if you ask them why they did what they did they invariably say the same thing they say they had no
00:52:33.480
choice which is interesting like they're universally uncomfortable with the label hero they attribute their
00:52:40.280
actions to the situation rather than their own profile so they say like how could i watch a man drown
00:52:46.600
or starve or burn to death so for them the fear of not acting is worse than the fear of acting and both are
00:52:53.440
scary so it's not it's not like they're not scared it's just you know given their training given their
00:52:59.600
background giving their identity like who they think they are in this world they can't live with
00:53:05.320
themselves if they don't try so that's some of what we know is that on average again this research
00:53:13.000
is really thin but from what we can tell a lot of people who are celebrated in the media as heroes
00:53:18.580
from events like this are much more likely to be young single men that could be partly because they
00:53:26.440
don't have families so maybe they have less at risk it could be because men are more likely to work
0.52
00:53:32.840
outside and in situations where these types of things happen that get a lot of media coverage
00:53:37.180
they might be they have an identity that they're someone who's not supposed to just sit quietly by
00:53:42.060
and watch someone else die so there's a lot of possible reasons there including you know there's
00:53:46.960
some fun evolutionary reasons about why why young men would do that because it you know raises their
00:53:53.000
status in the group and that would make sense but it's a lot of speculation right now yeah and it sounds
00:54:00.280
like to the people who have this idea that you know they they couldn't not act like they had to do
00:54:05.000
something uh it sounds like from what you talk about in the book like when they were growing up
00:54:10.580
they they really had a good relationship with their parents and their parents always impressed upon them
00:54:16.540
you know you're a helper like you you're always going to do what you can for others and then they
00:54:21.420
carry that over into heroic situations yeah it could be or like the doctors and nurses right from the
00:54:27.320
beverly hills supper club fire like yeah if you've got the mindset that you're a helper then you're
00:54:31.980
going to carry that with you um so you end the book talking about this guy named rick rescorla i
00:54:37.760
worked at the world trade center and you kind of use him as like this is the guy that we should look at
00:54:43.520
to see how to really prepare ourselves and others for the unthinkable so what can rick tell us or teach
00:54:50.460
about that yeah rick rescorla is a really interesting person who was the head of security for morgan
00:54:57.500
stanley which had a massive presence at the world trade center um and he was a you know former soldier
00:55:05.800
who worked on security and spent many years at morgan stanley he had fought in vietnam earned a bunch of
00:55:13.120
medals and eventually you know settled into this role but he still kind of brought with them that
00:55:19.260
mindset that he had learned in the military he knew that morgan stanley was vulnerable like it
00:55:24.820
occupied 22 floors of tower two that's like a small city basically and after the 1988 bombing of pan-am
00:55:32.540
flight 103 over locker b scotland he got really focused on the threat of a terrorist attack at the
00:55:38.300
trade center and so he brought up one of his buddies to new york city who did counterterrorism work
00:55:44.000
in 1990 and asked him you know where are the vulnerabilities that you see here and his friend
00:55:49.400
saw the trade center's garage and he said oh well this is a no-brainer i would just drive a truck full
00:55:54.920
of explosives into the garage and walk out so rick and his friend wrote this report to the port
00:55:59.960
authority explaining their concerns and trying to get more security in the parking garage not a lot of
00:56:04.960
things happened according to rick nothing happened really the port authority did not respond to my
00:56:10.300
requests for comment but in any event three years later ramzi yusuf drove a truck full of explosives
00:56:15.780
into the underground parking garage of the world trade center and that was the first terrorist attack
00:56:19.460
at the trade center that led to a really disastrous evacuation so while it wasn't very deadly it was
00:56:26.180
truly traumatic for a lot of people because it took many many hours for people to evacuate
00:56:31.180
the stairwells were not well lit and ventilated so now rick had you know real conviction that things
00:56:39.160
needed to change and he didn't trust the port authority which ran the trade center so he did
00:56:43.660
something that almost no one else did which was he trusted the people in the company to save
00:56:50.320
themselves you know morgan stanley was the largest tenant in the world trade center and so he decided
00:56:55.620
they were gonna have to take care of each other and so from then on no visitors were allowed in the
00:56:59.480
office without an escort and he made sure they knew where the stairwell was on their first day so they
00:57:05.040
knew how to get out of there he told his employees not to listen to instructions from the port authority
00:57:10.600
in a real emergency because it had lost all legitimacy for him and most importantly he started running the
00:57:15.880
entire company through frequent surprise fire drills which was remains extremely unusual and he actually had
00:57:23.760
people go down the stairs two by two go down several sets of stairways and he insisted that the highest
00:57:30.580
floors evacuate first and not let the lower floors in front of them which is actually a big problem a lot
00:57:36.880
of evacuations because it takes forever so this is someone who had like advanced understanding of
00:57:41.600
human behavior and also incredible faith in his colleagues in the public basically he knew that if people had
00:57:48.540
the training they can become really expert in getting out of places and helping each other and you know he was
00:57:56.460
right so on the morning of 9 11 he knew that another plane had hit the other tower and he grabbed his
00:58:02.920
walkie-talkie and he started to order an evacuation had already started like the Morgan Stanley employees
00:58:09.080
knew not to wait for someone to tell them to go to safety and already started they knew where the
00:58:14.720
stairwells were which was pretty unusual in the trade center it was kind of confusing for different
00:58:19.140
reasons and then when people started getting scared in the stairwell because another plane hit he started
00:58:24.820
singing songs through his bullhorn which is something he had done to calm his soldiers in Vietnam and he
00:58:31.460
sung songs in the stairwell and there's a picture of him doing that in the book and people remember that
00:58:36.260
and when the tower collapsed only 13 Morgan Stanley employees were inside the other 2,687 were safe which
00:58:45.760
was quite extraordinary and unfortunately Rick and a handful of his security colleagues had gone back in
00:58:52.260
to get some stragglers so they were they were killed that day but it's it's an incredible story of what
00:58:57.920
can happen when you trust regular people to train for bad things to happen and to help each other
00:59:04.200
well Amanda this has been a great conversation where can people go to learn more about the book and your
00:59:08.680
work you can check out more about the book and my work at amandaripley.com fantastic well Amanda
00:59:14.500
Ripley thanks for time it's been a pleasure thanks for having me my guest today was Amanda Ripley she's the author of
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00:59:20.020
the book the unthinkable it's available on amazon.com and bookstores everywhere you can find
00:59:24.060
more information about her work at our website amandaripley.com also check out our show notes
00:59:28.460
at aom.is slash disaster we find links to resources we delve deeper into this topic
00:59:32.920
well that wraps up another edition of the aom podcast make sure to check out our website at
00:59:44.260
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00:59:48.320
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01:00:03.900
remind you to listen to anyone podcast but put what you've heard into action