The Art of Manliness - How to Use Probability Hacking to Achieve Your Goals

00:00:00.000 So earlier this year, Kate and I started a substack.

00:00:02.160 It's called Dying Breed. 0.98

00:00:03.440 It's a place where we can write about things

00:00:04.720 that wouldn't be a good fit for art of manliness,

00:00:07.160 but we wanted to write about and share anyway.

00:00:09.460 Each week, we publish two articles there.

00:00:11.680 First, there's Kate's wonderful Short Sunday Firesides.

00:00:15.000 It's a great way to start your week off

00:00:16.420 with some reflection.

00:00:17.620 And then we have a longer form article

00:00:18.820 that explores topics like luck, success, media theory,

00:00:22.820 the intersection between technology and life,

00:00:24.620 how to use technology in a meaningful way.

00:00:26.700 When you subscribe, you get access

00:00:27.780 to over 300 articles in the archive,

00:00:29.160 including all of Kate's Sunday Firesides,

00:00:31.340 plus articles like 20 Lessons from 20 Years of Marriage,

00:00:33.960 co-written by Kate and I,

00:00:35.380 what Kierkegaard can tell us why professional sports

00:00:37.440 and life can seem so boring.

00:00:39.340 We have articles on luck,

00:00:40.720 what philosophers think about luck,

00:00:42.560 a tour of our home office, and a lot, lot more.

00:00:45.560 Plus, when you subscribe, you can comment

00:00:46.920 and connect directly with Kate and I

00:00:48.400 and other Dying Breed readers.

00:00:50.140 It's just $5 a month or $50 a year,

00:00:52.820 and your subscription is a great way

00:00:54.220 to support the work we do at Art of Manliness.

00:00:56.360 We'd love to see you there on Dying Breed.

00:00:57.920 Head to dyingbreed.net and become a member today.

00:01:01.100 That's dyingbreed.net.

00:01:03.040 Thanks so much for your continued support.

00:01:04.580 We really appreciate you.

00:01:05.820 Hey, this is Brett.

00:01:07.100 Before we get to today's show,

00:01:08.140 I wanted to let you know that right now

00:01:09.440 we have enrollment going on

00:01:10.580 for a winter cohort of The Strenuous Life.

00:01:13.000 If you're looking for a meaningful way

00:01:14.420 to start the new year,

00:01:15.340 one that actually sets the tone

00:01:16.520 for the kind of man you want to be in 2026,

00:01:18.920 The Strenuous Life is it.

00:01:20.560 Enrollment is now open and closes on January 1st.

00:01:23.480 The Strenuous Life is an online program

00:01:24.900 that we created to help you put into action

00:01:26.500 all the things we've been talking about

00:01:27.780 on the A1 podcast

00:01:28.600 and over on the Art of Manliness website.

00:01:30.580 When you sign up,

00:01:31.300 you're going to be put into a 12-week bootcamp

00:01:32.840 that gives you real structure to build discipline,

00:01:34.960 develop practical skills,

00:01:36.180 and take action starting day one.

00:01:38.180 There's 50 different badges

00:01:39.260 based around 50 different skills that you can earn,

00:01:41.040 and it gives you direction

00:01:41.880 toward developing some practical skills.

00:01:43.740 You're going to get weekly challenges

00:01:44.860 that push you physically, mentally, and socially,

00:01:47.080 plus access to a community of like-minded men

00:01:49.240 who are serious about becoming more capable,

00:01:51.260 grounded, and useful.

00:01:52.600 If you've ever said to yourself,

00:01:53.880 this year I want to live with more purpose,

00:01:56.140 The Strenuous Life can help with that.

00:01:57.840 Go to strenuouslife.co to sign up.

00:02:00.380 Again, that's strenuouslife.co.

00:02:02.100 Enrollment closes January 1st,

00:02:04.100 and the challenge kicks off on January 3rd.

00:02:06.600 Hope to see you there on The Strenuous Life.

00:02:08.020 Again, it's strenuouslife.co.

00:02:17.440 Brett McKay here,

00:02:18.380 and welcome to another edition

00:02:19.400 of the Art of Manliness podcast.

00:02:21.620 Most of us chase goals,

00:02:23.160 starting a business,

00:02:24.180 running a marathon,

00:02:25.200 getting a promotion,

00:02:26.200 without ever asking,

00:02:27.600 what are the actual odds this will work?

00:02:29.540 My guest today says those odds

00:02:30.880 aren't just graspable,

00:02:31.800 they're hackable.

00:02:33.300 Kyle Austin Young is a strategy consultant

00:02:34.980 and the author of

00:02:35.860 Success is a Numbers Game.

00:02:37.820 He argues that every goal

00:02:38.880 comes with a hidden probability

00:02:40.200 of success or failure,

00:02:41.680 and by thinking strategically,

00:02:43.060 rather than just hoping for the best,

00:02:44.740 you can tilt the odds in your favor.

00:02:46.720 In the first part of our conversation,

00:02:48.440 Kyle explains the three common ways

00:02:50.000 people pursue goals

00:02:51.040 and their potential downsides.

00:02:52.720 We then unpack how to approach your goals

00:02:54.380 through probability hacking.

00:02:55.940 We discuss how to spot

00:02:56.960 the weak links in your plan,

00:02:58.460 how to map out a success diagram

00:03:00.020 that helps you avoid common pitfalls

00:03:01.560 and pursue goals more intelligently,

00:03:03.220 and how to use these same principles

00:03:04.560 to know when you should quit a goal.

00:03:06.440 After the show's over,

00:03:07.280 check out our show notes

00:03:07.920 at aom.is slash probabilityhacking.

00:03:23.640 All right, Kyle Young,

00:03:25.140 welcome to the show.

00:03:26.140 Thank you for having me.

00:03:26.980 Excited to be here.

00:03:27.560 So you got a new book out.

00:03:28.760 It's called Success is a Numbers Game,

00:03:30.960 and in this book,

00:03:31.820 you argue that every goal,

00:03:34.000 whether it's to start a business,

00:03:36.000 get a promotion,

00:03:36.940 run a marathon,

00:03:38.340 find a spouse even,

00:03:40.420 every goal has a hidden probability

00:03:42.500 of success and failure,

00:03:44.940 and once you understand that,

00:03:46.680 you can start hacking

00:03:47.840 your probability of success.

00:03:50.220 Walk us through

00:03:50.940 when you first arrived at this insight.

00:03:53.080 You know,

00:03:54.600 in many ways,

00:03:55.300 it wasn't necessarily

00:03:56.340 a happy origin story.

00:03:58.200 I think what I can trace it back to

00:03:59.500 most clearly

00:04:00.200 was a couple of layoffs

00:04:01.580 early in my career.

00:04:02.860 I had different management level positions

00:04:04.800 at a young age,

00:04:05.680 great opportunities.

00:04:06.400 It was cool to have,

00:04:07.460 you know,

00:04:07.640 these leadership roles,

00:04:08.680 and I got laid off twice

00:04:10.420 in 13 months.

00:04:11.680 In one case,

00:04:12.720 I had just bought my first house.

00:04:14.140 The second time,

00:04:14.920 we were in the process

00:04:16.260 of adopting our daughter,

00:04:17.460 which is a famously

00:04:18.200 expensive process,

00:04:19.340 and both times,

00:04:21.020 I had to go to my wife

00:04:21.740 and say I lost my income.

00:04:23.740 And so as I thought about

00:04:24.800 how I was going to ultimately

00:04:25.580 replace that income,

00:04:26.580 I was really fortunate.

00:04:27.860 The day after the second layoff,

00:04:29.180 I had four different people

00:04:30.300 offer me positions,

00:04:31.520 and what I learned from that,

00:04:33.520 though,

00:04:33.680 was that there were

00:04:34.620 a lot of people who liked me.

00:04:35.720 There were a lot of people

00:04:36.180 who respected the work

00:04:37.120 that I was doing,

00:04:37.900 and yet I was unemployed, right?

00:04:39.600 And so what I ultimately drew

00:04:41.080 from that is just the reality

00:04:42.220 that the projects

00:04:43.560 I was involved in

00:04:44.840 were linked

00:04:45.780 to my own future.

00:04:47.100 It wasn't enough

00:04:47.700 to show up

00:04:48.220 and do my job really well.

00:04:49.820 If the projects

00:04:50.560 weren't successful,

00:04:51.260 if the organizations

00:04:52.020 didn't succeed,

00:04:53.560 I was still going to be

00:04:54.240 at risk of losing my income.

00:04:56.440 So ultimately,

00:04:56.940 when I had those

00:04:57.400 four different offers,

00:04:58.360 I went to lunch

00:04:58.820 with somebody

00:04:59.240 who gave me

00:04:59.660 some really generous advice

00:05:00.700 and said,

00:05:01.400 I hate seeing you

00:05:02.180 have to restart

00:05:02.880 over and over again.

00:05:03.760 What if you took

00:05:04.220 fractional roles

00:05:05.380 with these four

00:05:05.960 different organizations,

00:05:07.000 diversified your income

00:05:07.840 a little bit?

00:05:08.760 So I did that,

00:05:09.680 and one of the ways

00:05:10.340 that I approached consulting

00:05:11.900 was I wanted to

00:05:12.840 do everything I could

00:05:13.740 regardless of what

00:05:14.520 I was hired for.

00:05:15.820 I wanted to take

00:05:16.560 as much responsibility

00:05:17.680 as I ethically could

00:05:18.740 for that company's success,

00:05:20.420 for that project's success.

00:05:22.200 I wanted them to be

00:05:22.720 in a position

00:05:23.200 where they could pay me

00:05:24.260 for a long time.

00:05:25.480 And so that really

00:05:26.020 became the foundation

00:05:26.860 of the consulting career

00:05:27.860 I launched 10 years ago,

00:05:29.240 and it's grown since then.

00:05:30.520 That led me to

00:05:31.700 start thinking

00:05:32.360 about every project

00:05:33.320 having a probability

00:05:34.060 of success,

00:05:34.720 a probability of failure,

00:05:35.960 wanting to have a sense

00:05:36.740 of where those odds stood

00:05:38.200 when I took on

00:05:39.180 a new client,

00:05:40.140 and then it was about

00:05:40.780 what can I do

00:05:41.540 to tilt the odds

00:05:42.640 in my favor,

00:05:43.340 make these people

00:05:43.840 as successful as possible,

00:05:45.140 and reap the rewards

00:05:46.220 of that shared success.

00:05:48.160 So you argue

00:05:48.660 that when people

00:05:50.320 establish a goal,

00:05:52.060 they typically take

00:05:52.980 three approaches

00:05:53.740 to achieve that goal.

00:05:56.040 The first one is

00:05:57.340 people typically

00:05:58.140 choose goals

00:05:59.280 where they know

00:06:01.040 the odds are on their side.

00:06:02.380 Like, they're just like,

00:06:02.860 yep, I know I can do that.

00:06:04.400 I'm going to go for that.

00:06:05.600 What are some examples

00:06:06.320 of that,

00:06:06.680 and what are the downsides

00:06:07.720 of pursuing this path

00:06:08.720 to success?

00:06:10.340 Yeah, a lot of people

00:06:10.940 want to prioritize goals

00:06:12.340 where they have

00:06:12.980 good odds of success,

00:06:14.000 and I totally celebrate that.

00:06:15.260 In fact, I think that

00:06:16.200 for many people,

00:06:17.360 it's wise to start

00:06:18.260 with those goals

00:06:18.860 before you pursue

00:06:19.860 some bigger goals

00:06:20.640 because typically success

00:06:21.780 will beget success.

00:06:23.120 The connections

00:06:23.680 or the resources

00:06:24.960 or the experience

00:06:25.780 that you get

00:06:26.400 out of these small wins

00:06:27.560 will often change your odds

00:06:29.340 on more unlikely pursuits.

00:06:31.660 But when it comes to

00:06:32.380 what are examples

00:06:33.040 of people chasing goals

00:06:34.320 where the odds

00:06:34.780 are already on their side,

00:06:36.120 a really famous example

00:06:37.240 is Nepo babies. 1.00

00:06:38.500 The children of famous

00:06:39.640 or successful individuals

00:06:40.700 will have advantages

00:06:41.880 of their parents' profession.

00:06:43.460 Most of us

00:06:44.000 don't identify

00:06:44.820 as a Nepo baby.

00:06:45.700 Most of the people

00:06:46.340 that we would call

00:06:47.120 a Nepo baby 0.99

00:06:47.660 don't identify

00:06:48.360 as Nepo babies. 0.99

00:06:49.560 So that's not necessarily

00:06:51.000 something that will relate

00:06:51.720 to everybody.

00:06:52.720 But the reality is

00:06:53.560 all of us have

00:06:54.640 areas of advantage,

00:06:55.880 and it doesn't have

00:06:57.180 to be an enormous advantage.

00:06:58.760 Just incremental changes

00:06:59.980 in your attributes

00:07:01.280 can have a huge impact

00:07:02.560 on your odds.

00:07:03.620 So if you're open to it,

00:07:04.200 I'll give you an example

00:07:04.800 that has some numbers

00:07:05.720 that has to do

00:07:06.340 with the idea

00:07:06.820 of playing in the

00:07:07.500 National Basketball Association.

00:07:09.120 That's a goal

00:07:09.620 that a lot of guys have,

00:07:11.000 especially when they're younger.

00:07:11.720 I had it when I was a kid.

00:07:13.080 I don't anymore.

00:07:14.080 But that's a goal

00:07:14.640 that many people have had.

00:07:15.660 And so one of the things

00:07:16.760 that research has found

00:07:17.620 is your height

00:07:18.700 is a huge indicator

00:07:20.180 of how likely you are

00:07:21.140 to make it into the NBA.

00:07:22.660 And so I'll give you

00:07:23.100 some numbers.

00:07:23.780 If you're shorter

00:07:24.300 than six feet tall,

00:07:25.720 and the average U.S. male

00:07:26.760 is five foot nine,

00:07:28.000 I'm shorter than six feet tall,

00:07:29.340 I'm 5'11".

00:07:29.960 If you're shorter

00:07:30.660 than six feet tall,

00:07:31.780 your odds of playing

00:07:32.560 in the NBA

00:07:33.040 are one in 1.2 million.

00:07:35.740 Those are terrible odds,

00:07:36.860 one in 1.2 million.

00:07:38.320 But what's really interesting

00:07:39.420 is if you're between

00:07:40.500 six feet tall

00:07:41.280 and six foot three,

00:07:42.700 that's not a huge difference.

00:07:44.020 Shorter than six feet

00:07:44.780 to six feet tall

00:07:46.160 to six foot three,

00:07:47.440 your odds go from

00:07:48.220 one in 1.2 million

00:07:49.620 to one in 100,000.

00:07:51.820 And that's still unlikely,

00:07:53.120 but with this one small change,

00:07:54.580 your outlook

00:07:55.060 just got 10 times better.

00:07:56.900 If you're between

00:07:57.480 six foot four

00:07:58.020 and six foot seven,

00:07:58.780 your odds are actually

00:07:59.400 one in 8,000.

00:08:01.060 If you're between

00:08:01.480 six eight and 6'11",

00:08:02.960 it's one in 200.

00:08:04.660 And if you're

00:08:05.140 one of the few people

00:08:05.940 who are over seven feet tall,

00:08:07.840 your odds actually,

00:08:08.620 according to this data

00:08:09.440 published by the New York Times,

00:08:11.040 become an astonishing

00:08:12.060 one in seven.

00:08:13.620 So as we increase

00:08:14.540 a person's height,

00:08:15.680 we watch their odds

00:08:16.640 of playing in the NBA

00:08:17.520 go from one in 1.2 million

00:08:19.480 to one in seven.

00:08:21.400 That's the difference

00:08:22.220 between the total population

00:08:23.920 of New Hampshire

00:08:24.600 and a line at Starbucks.

00:08:26.040 That's the size of the change.

00:08:28.000 And this all happened

00:08:28.760 with just these

00:08:29.280 incremental differences

00:08:30.460 in a person's height.

00:08:31.640 So we all have areas

00:08:32.760 where we have advantage.

00:08:34.100 We may not have

00:08:34.560 as much advantage

00:08:35.120 as other people.

00:08:36.000 There can certainly be wisdom

00:08:37.220 in leaning into those goals,

00:08:38.620 especially early

00:08:39.840 in your career,

00:08:40.680 early in your life.

00:08:41.800 But as you've mentioned,

00:08:42.440 there is a downside to that.

00:08:43.720 And the downside is

00:08:44.560 the goals where you have

00:08:45.440 the best odds

00:08:46.220 might not be the goals

00:08:48.100 that you're most energized

00:08:49.080 to pursue.

00:08:50.240 In my case,

00:08:51.020 my dad's an optometrist.

00:08:52.100 He runs a successful

00:08:53.020 optometry practice.

00:08:54.560 I could have inherited that.

00:08:56.200 You know,

00:08:56.320 starting at your own

00:08:57.040 optometry practice

00:08:57.780 is a difficult thing to do.

00:08:58.720 He's done all of that.

00:08:59.900 It's already in place.

00:09:01.020 I could have inherited

00:09:01.700 that clientele.

00:09:03.320 I could have inherited

00:09:03.840 those systems,

00:09:04.640 that equipment,

00:09:05.120 and I would have had

00:09:06.360 great odds

00:09:07.040 at continuing,

00:09:08.300 you know,

00:09:08.440 the success of that practice.

00:09:10.060 I didn't want to be

00:09:10.660 an optometrist.

00:09:11.600 That wasn't what ultimately

00:09:12.880 made the most sense for me.

00:09:13.900 So even though I have

00:09:14.380 a lot of respect

00:09:15.060 for what he's accomplished,

00:09:15.940 it wasn't a goal

00:09:16.820 that I wanted to own

00:09:17.540 for myself.

00:09:18.680 And so because of that,

00:09:19.700 this opportunity

00:09:20.400 where I would have had

00:09:21.180 a pretty good chance

00:09:21.780 of success

00:09:22.340 was, you know,

00:09:23.080 left kind of untapped

00:09:24.340 by me

00:09:24.720 and I pursued different things.

00:09:27.020 Okay.

00:09:27.140 So there are advantages

00:09:28.120 to pursuing this path.

00:09:29.120 It's just like finding out

00:09:29.840 what your advantages are

00:09:30.900 and capitalizing on them.

00:09:32.320 But as you said,

00:09:33.400 if you just pursue goals

00:09:35.040 where your odds

00:09:35.680 are in your favor,

00:09:37.040 you might be playing it small

00:09:38.260 or you might be pursuing goals

00:09:39.880 you're not particularly

00:09:40.720 interested in.

00:09:42.060 Yeah, absolutely.

00:09:43.060 So yeah,

00:09:43.400 that takes some reflection.

00:09:44.880 A second path people do

00:09:46.840 when they're going after goals

00:09:48.240 is chase unlikely goals

00:09:50.060 and hope you get lucky.

00:09:51.880 And you say this is

00:09:52.500 the most popular approach.

00:09:53.740 Why is that?

00:09:55.180 Yeah.

00:09:55.420 And when I say the word popular,

00:09:56.800 a more appropriate word

00:09:57.840 might be common.

00:09:58.700 I don't think a lot of people

00:09:59.400 are doing it intentionally,

00:10:00.300 but the reality is

00:10:01.420 that most people

00:10:02.040 never stop to consider

00:10:03.220 their odds of success.

00:10:04.440 And I'll probably get

00:10:05.400 some opportunities

00:10:05.960 while we're talking

00:10:06.540 to give examples

00:10:07.560 of some of the mistakes

00:10:08.440 we make in our thinking,

00:10:09.440 but they don't even

00:10:10.400 stop to reflect

00:10:11.640 on what their odds

00:10:12.340 of success are.

00:10:13.640 And most big goals

00:10:15.120 are unlikely to succeed.

00:10:17.160 If we think about

00:10:17.960 even just the statistics

00:10:19.040 that kind of circulate

00:10:20.020 in the public consciousness,

00:10:20.960 I'm not trying to give you

00:10:21.860 numbers to cite

00:10:22.480 in a research study,

00:10:23.260 but it's pretty well known

00:10:24.560 this idea that

00:10:25.320 nine out of 10 businesses fail.

00:10:27.240 It's pretty well known

00:10:28.100 that most people

00:10:28.780 who set a New Year's resolution

00:10:30.100 will fail to accomplish it.

00:10:31.300 I Googled that.

00:10:32.040 And it actually says

00:10:33.140 it's between 6% and 9%

00:10:34.460 of people who accomplish

00:10:36.080 their New Year's resolutions.

00:10:37.500 The vast majority are failing.

00:10:39.760 So what can we take from that?

00:10:41.320 Well, what we can take from that

00:10:42.160 is that most big goals

00:10:43.880 have bad odds of success.

00:10:45.820 And most people

00:10:46.640 are never even stopping

00:10:47.420 to consider their odds.

00:10:48.660 So I wouldn't say

00:10:49.420 that this is necessarily

00:10:50.220 what most people

00:10:50.780 are intentionally doing,

00:10:51.680 but this is how most people

00:10:52.600 are living their lives.

00:10:53.780 They never stop

00:10:54.460 to actually consider,

00:10:55.540 is this something

00:10:55.980 that I could reasonably expect

00:10:57.320 to succeed at?

00:10:58.060 And then they dive in

00:10:59.480 with no understanding

00:11:00.700 of what their odds are

00:11:01.860 and hope that it goes well.

00:11:04.240 But ultimately,

00:11:05.340 I think that's why

00:11:06.140 we see such high failure rates

00:11:07.460 to some extent.

00:11:08.060 Some of it is just

00:11:08.540 the inherent challenge level

00:11:09.960 of these goals.

00:11:11.000 Some of it is

00:11:11.480 how little work people

00:11:12.440 are doing to optimize

00:11:13.220 their odds of success.

00:11:14.660 And I'm here to help people

00:11:15.560 try to do that

00:11:16.400 more intentionally.

00:11:17.140 And I think that

00:11:17.560 where it really starts

00:11:18.560 for a lot of people

00:11:19.280 is just this idea

00:11:20.040 of thinking negative.

00:11:21.540 And I think that's what

00:11:22.140 so many of us

00:11:22.740 are afraid to do.

00:11:23.620 We're raised to think positive.

00:11:25.120 We're raised to believe,

00:11:26.820 well, if it's meant to happen,

00:11:27.640 it'll happen.

00:11:28.380 We're raised to kind of avoid

00:11:29.540 the uncertainty of,

00:11:31.040 in reality,

00:11:31.440 there's a chance

00:11:32.140 that you'll succeed.

00:11:32.820 There's a chance

00:11:33.380 that you'll fail.

00:11:34.360 So we avoid looking

00:11:36.180 at the potential bad outcomes

00:11:37.520 that could sabotage our success.

00:11:39.180 And when we don't

00:11:39.940 take those seriously,

00:11:40.800 we don't really give ourselves

00:11:42.300 a reasonable chance

00:11:43.720 of avoiding them

00:11:44.400 and ultimately

00:11:44.940 getting the outcome we want.

00:11:46.680 All right.

00:11:46.780 So that second approach

00:11:47.500 is just winging it.

00:11:49.040 Yeah, it's winging it 100%.

00:11:50.120 And I don't think

00:11:51.000 that people are doing it

00:11:51.600 because they're lazy. 0.89

00:11:52.400 I don't think people

00:11:52.900 are doing it

00:11:53.240 because it's necessarily

00:11:54.280 what they want.

00:11:54.880 I think most people

00:11:55.400 believe their odds

00:11:56.160 are unknowable

00:11:56.960 and unchangeable,

00:11:58.220 that they don't think

00:11:58.940 that they actually have a path

00:11:59.860 to having a sense

00:12:00.820 of what their odds

00:12:01.460 of success are.

00:12:02.480 And so I wrote this book

00:12:03.220 to give people a way

00:12:04.040 to actually understand

00:12:05.020 here's how likely I am

00:12:06.160 to accomplish this goal

00:12:07.120 and then beyond that

00:12:08.180 to give them

00:12:08.680 a five-step framework

00:12:09.620 for improving those odds

00:12:10.900 so that they'll have

00:12:11.620 a better shot

00:12:12.120 at getting what they want.

00:12:13.500 Yeah, if I look back

00:12:14.640 at all the big pursuits

00:12:15.780 that I've taken on,

00:12:17.580 I would say

00:12:19.020 I was doing

00:12:19.800 that second approach.

00:12:21.180 Like, oh,

00:12:21.400 that looks like fun to do.

00:12:22.560 I'm going to go for it

00:12:23.700 and I really didn't understand

00:12:24.940 if it was going to succeed

00:12:26.020 or fail

00:12:26.600 and I was just winging it.

00:12:28.120 And I mean,

00:12:28.560 some of them really paid off

00:12:29.700 so there can be

00:12:30.400 some virtue in that.

00:12:32.120 And there are some goals

00:12:32.960 that we have

00:12:33.920 a moral obligation

00:12:35.040 to pursue

00:12:35.740 even though the odds

00:12:36.660 are terrible.

00:12:37.300 We should try

00:12:38.060 to cure cancer.

00:12:39.280 That's an unlikely goal.

00:12:41.240 I'm fortunate

00:12:41.820 to be an investor

00:12:42.760 in a company

00:12:43.220 that's trying to

00:12:43.900 create a new treatment

00:12:44.800 for cancer.

00:12:45.380 But obviously,

00:12:46.220 it's an unlikely goal

00:12:47.640 to try to cure cancer.

00:12:48.580 That doesn't mean

00:12:48.920 we shouldn't pursue it.

00:12:49.700 So I'm not saying

00:12:50.420 that it's universally wrong

00:12:52.440 to pursue goals

00:12:53.180 with bad odds.

00:12:54.320 I am saying

00:12:55.140 that we have an opportunity

00:12:56.180 typically to live

00:12:57.080 more rewarding lives

00:12:58.200 if we make space

00:12:59.360 for high probability goals

00:13:00.620 and certainly

00:13:01.440 if we do everything

00:13:02.480 we can to optimize

00:13:03.380 our odds of success

00:13:04.500 at any goal

00:13:05.160 we're pursuing

00:13:05.680 regardless of how

00:13:06.780 improbable it might be

00:13:07.920 at the beginning.

00:13:08.880 All right.

00:13:09.020 So the third way

00:13:09.780 you can pursue a goal

00:13:10.580 or unlikely goal

00:13:11.760 is to do so strategically

00:13:13.400 by playing bad odds

00:13:16.060 through multiple attempts.

00:13:17.560 And you say

00:13:18.500 this is the approach

00:13:19.080 that artists

00:13:19.760 and entrepreneurs

00:13:20.480 often take.

00:13:21.300 What does that look like?

00:13:23.140 Sure.

00:13:23.460 So a 90% chance of failure

00:13:25.360 to many people

00:13:26.400 means a dead end.

00:13:27.700 If I were considering

00:13:28.740 a goal

00:13:29.180 that had a 90% chance

00:13:30.460 of failure

00:13:30.960 it's like,

00:13:31.500 okay,

00:13:31.840 well,

00:13:32.100 no point in doing that.

00:13:33.400 That could never succeed.

00:13:34.560 In reality,

00:13:35.220 that's not what

00:13:36.000 that number is telling us.

00:13:37.100 It means that

00:13:37.420 for every 10 attempts

00:13:38.580 we predict one success

00:13:40.340 and nine failures.

00:13:41.300 But there is

00:13:41.940 a predicted success.

00:13:43.640 And so at a societal level

00:13:44.760 when we see

00:13:45.320 those types of successes

00:13:46.360 we say that people got lucky.

00:13:48.060 We say that,

00:13:48.820 well,

00:13:49.020 nine people failed,

00:13:49.720 one person succeeded.

00:13:50.700 I guess that one person

00:13:51.440 got lucky.

00:13:52.280 Not necessarily.

00:13:53.180 That person didn't beat the odds.

00:13:54.900 The odds played out

00:13:56.040 as expected

00:13:56.800 and they were

00:13:57.720 the beneficiary

00:13:58.580 of those

00:13:59.180 predicted successes.

00:14:01.000 But there's an opportunity

00:14:01.820 for us as individuals

00:14:02.720 to sort of act

00:14:03.440 like our own

00:14:03.980 miniature society.

00:14:05.200 And we can,

00:14:05.880 through repeated attempts,

00:14:07.060 experience both

00:14:08.100 the predicted success

00:14:09.360 and the predicted failures.

00:14:11.320 And so an example

00:14:11.840 of that in entrepreneurship

00:14:12.620 like you mentioned

00:14:13.260 would be

00:14:13.760 Aperva Meta.

00:14:15.000 In 2020,

00:14:15.520 it was eight years

00:14:16.820 into the company Instacart

00:14:17.900 which he had founded

00:14:18.660 and COVID happened

00:14:19.900 and it drove

00:14:20.660 thousands of new customers

00:14:21.980 to give grocery delivery

00:14:23.540 a try.

00:14:24.740 And when that happens

00:14:25.360 he says

00:14:25.780 we saw five years of growth

00:14:27.500 in a matter of five weeks.

00:14:29.420 Over a span of 10 months

00:14:30.500 their valuation increased

00:14:31.860 by over $9 billion.

00:14:33.620 That has the appearance

00:14:34.760 of incredibly lucky timing.

00:14:36.820 And to some extent

00:14:37.500 I'm comfortable

00:14:38.360 with people saying

00:14:38.880 that it is.

00:14:39.940 But it's not

00:14:40.460 miraculous timing.

00:14:41.980 Meta estimates

00:14:42.460 that he actually launched

00:14:43.260 around 20 businesses

00:14:44.700 before he founded

00:14:45.940 Instacart.

00:14:46.880 He started an ad network

00:14:48.100 for gaming companies,

00:14:49.280 a social media site

00:14:50.120 for lawyers.

00:14:51.260 And so it's not

00:14:51.860 that shocking

00:14:52.660 that one of his 20 businesses

00:14:54.220 was in the right place

00:14:55.400 at the right time.

00:14:56.360 So there certainly is

00:14:57.680 merit

00:14:58.360 in using multiple attempts

00:15:00.140 to try to accomplish

00:15:01.180 big goals.

00:15:02.000 And like you mentioned

00:15:02.760 that is also true

00:15:03.680 in the arts.

00:15:04.700 The goal of trying

00:15:05.600 to create enduring works

00:15:06.720 of art,

00:15:07.620 it's so unlikely

00:15:08.560 that you would produce

00:15:09.440 something that would

00:15:10.420 still be talked about

00:15:11.640 centuries later.

00:15:12.720 An incredibly difficult

00:15:13.480 thing to do.

00:15:14.360 Some people

00:15:14.740 who have accomplished it,

00:15:15.660 Mozart accomplished it,

00:15:16.860 Beethoven accomplished it.

00:15:18.220 How did they do it?

00:15:19.040 Is it this transcendent

00:15:20.320 amount of talent

00:15:20.920 that they had?

00:15:21.520 Their talent certainly

00:15:22.320 is helpful,

00:15:23.380 but they're also

00:15:24.300 so much more prolific

00:15:25.620 than we realized.

00:15:26.840 Mozart,

00:15:27.440 maybe you know

00:15:28.160 five songs by Mozart,

00:15:29.240 that's probably

00:15:29.560 how many I know.

00:15:30.540 He composed

00:15:31.020 over 600 pieces of music.

00:15:32.980 Beethoven composed

00:15:33.780 over 700 pieces of music.

00:15:35.900 Van Gogh painted

00:15:36.960 and sketched

00:15:37.820 so prolifically,

00:15:39.340 he actually averaged

00:15:40.460 roughly one new work

00:15:41.520 of art

00:15:41.880 every 36 hours

00:15:43.380 for 10 years.

00:15:45.600 That's an incredible

00:15:46.940 rate of production

00:15:48.100 and when you have

00:15:49.180 so much input

00:15:50.020 going into the world

00:15:50.900 with a certain amount

00:15:52.240 of talent,

00:15:53.040 it dramatically increases

00:15:53.980 your odds of creating

00:15:55.000 something that stands

00:15:55.840 the test of time.

00:15:57.420 You talk about

00:15:57.920 the miracle on ice

00:15:59.100 when the US won

00:16:00.440 or the beat Russia

00:16:01.480 as an example of

00:16:02.640 gaining success

00:16:04.140 through multiple attempts.

00:16:05.500 Tell us about that

00:16:05.940 because people are like,

00:16:06.680 well, how is it

00:16:07.000 a multiple attempt?

00:16:07.740 They only played Russia once.

00:16:09.060 There's that one game

00:16:10.020 that decided

00:16:10.560 if you got the gold

00:16:11.600 or not.

00:16:12.640 Sure.

00:16:12.820 So in the context

00:16:13.340 of that single Olympics,

00:16:14.480 there was one game

00:16:15.800 where they faced

00:16:16.440 the Soviet Union.

00:16:17.180 That's true.

00:16:18.140 What makes this

00:16:19.140 an example

00:16:19.540 of multiple attempts

00:16:20.560 is the fact

00:16:21.160 that the Olympics

00:16:22.060 were played

00:16:22.360 every four years

00:16:23.000 for a long period

00:16:23.800 of time.

00:16:24.180 And the Soviet Union

00:16:25.300 were absolutely

00:16:26.440 this incredible favorite

00:16:28.140 to win that game.

00:16:29.780 For nearly 20 years,

00:16:30.780 they owned Olympic hockey.

00:16:32.480 They won four straight

00:16:33.540 gold medals.

00:16:34.400 Then they got a bronze.

00:16:36.100 And after the bronze,

00:16:36.960 they went on a streak

00:16:37.600 where they had 27 wins,

00:16:39.140 one loss,

00:16:39.880 and one tie.

00:16:41.040 They outscored

00:16:41.880 their opponents

00:16:42.440 175 to 44.

00:16:45.160 Unbelievable

00:16:45.680 how dominant

00:16:46.660 they were

00:16:47.200 in Olympic hockey.

00:16:48.680 But there were

00:16:49.220 some teams

00:16:49.900 over the course

00:16:50.520 of their full Olympic run

00:16:51.740 that did beat them

00:16:52.900 or tie them.

00:16:53.760 The United States,

00:16:55.000 Czechoslovakia,

00:16:55.980 Canada, Finland,

00:16:56.760 and Sweden.

00:16:57.480 Those are the five teams

00:16:58.440 that either beat

00:16:59.520 or tied the Soviet Union

00:17:00.800 out of the 17

00:17:02.020 total countries

00:17:03.320 that the Russians faced.

00:17:04.540 So 17 opponents,

00:17:05.640 five ever achieved

00:17:06.540 some success.

00:17:07.960 And it looks

00:17:08.560 like a random list

00:17:09.700 at first glance,

00:17:10.680 but it's not.

00:17:11.560 There's a common thread

00:17:12.420 with all five

00:17:13.100 of those countries.

00:17:14.320 The Soviets faced

00:17:15.060 the vast majority

00:17:15.820 of their opponents

00:17:16.560 four times or fewer.

00:17:18.480 It was an average

00:17:19.100 of 1.9 attempts.

00:17:21.120 But five countries

00:17:22.060 played the Russians

00:17:22.880 more than three times

00:17:24.240 that average

00:17:24.940 with at least seven

00:17:25.780 official attempts

00:17:26.600 in Olympic play.

00:17:28.060 And what five teams

00:17:28.860 were those?

00:17:29.360 They were the five teams

00:17:30.060 that either beat

00:17:30.480 or tied them.

00:17:30.980 The United States,

00:17:32.140 Czechoslovakia,

00:17:32.940 Canada, Finland,

00:17:33.640 and Sweden.

00:17:34.520 I got the really cool

00:17:35.140 opportunity when I was

00:17:36.000 writing this book

00:17:36.680 to interview Jack O'Callaghan,

00:17:38.620 a defenseman

00:17:39.240 from that 1980 U.S. team.

00:17:41.880 And he says that

00:17:42.680 before they went out

00:17:44.000 and took the ice,

00:17:45.200 Coach Herb Brooks

00:17:45.840 gave a speech.

00:17:46.840 And Jack says he doesn't

00:17:47.740 remember exactly

00:17:48.460 what the speech said.

00:17:49.620 Different players

00:17:50.260 on the team

00:17:50.580 remember it a little bit

00:17:51.140 differently.

00:17:51.440 But he knows

00:17:52.240 that he left thinking

00:17:53.020 if we played them

00:17:53.920 ten times,

00:17:54.700 they could beat us

00:17:55.220 nine times,

00:17:55.960 but they're not

00:17:56.480 going to beat us

00:17:57.000 tonight.

00:17:57.860 And that is,

00:17:58.360 I think,

00:17:58.560 a reflection to some

00:17:59.340 extent of the fact

00:17:59.980 that the United States,

00:18:01.360 by playing them

00:18:02.060 so many times,

00:18:03.080 gave themselves

00:18:03.540 an opportunity

00:18:04.140 to win once.

00:18:05.860 They actually won

00:18:06.520 twice over the course

00:18:07.500 of that rivalry.

00:18:08.580 The Soviets won 0.79

00:18:09.080 the vast majority

00:18:09.700 of the times they played.

00:18:10.780 But there was some

00:18:11.520 success for the United States.

00:18:13.240 And because success

00:18:13.920 begets success,

00:18:14.760 sometimes even just

00:18:15.940 one win

00:18:17.160 can make a big difference.

00:18:18.300 I have some stats

00:18:19.260 in the book

00:18:19.560 that I don't know

00:18:19.960 off the top of my head,

00:18:20.780 but that showed

00:18:21.480 the change in makeup

00:18:22.440 of the National Hockey League

00:18:23.740 All-Star team

00:18:24.640 after the Miracle on Ice.

00:18:26.720 It inspired so many

00:18:27.980 American kids

00:18:29.000 to start playing hockey.

00:18:30.520 And it was something like

00:18:31.520 it went from

00:18:32.080 no representation

00:18:32.840 on the All-Star team

00:18:33.940 to now quite a few

00:18:35.260 American-born players

00:18:36.280 are among the best

00:18:37.260 hockey players in the world.

00:18:38.280 And that all started

00:18:39.120 with one win.

00:18:39.740 All right.

00:18:40.820 So this pursuing success

00:18:41.900 through multiple attempts,

00:18:44.000 it works because like

00:18:45.180 there are odds

00:18:45.900 that are there.

00:18:46.780 And if you do something

00:18:47.960 enough times,

00:18:49.080 the odds will maybe

00:18:50.260 land on you eventually.

00:18:52.280 The downside of that,

00:18:53.880 I imagine,

00:18:54.320 is that it could take a while

00:18:55.900 or you could waste

00:18:57.100 a lot of energy,

00:18:58.260 time, and money

00:18:59.140 pursuing bad odds

00:19:01.340 through multiple attempts.

00:19:03.040 Yeah, that's absolutely true.

00:19:04.040 And there's some goals

00:19:04.700 where it wouldn't work at all.

00:19:06.320 If the odds are so bad,

00:19:07.900 then you could spend

00:19:09.440 your entire life

00:19:10.140 pursuing something

00:19:10.920 without ever finding success.

00:19:12.500 Some goals,

00:19:13.000 the nature of it

00:19:13.640 makes it unlikely.

00:19:14.860 Let's take, you know,

00:19:15.540 the goal of trying

00:19:16.120 to graduate from college.

00:19:17.580 There are people

00:19:18.020 in certain circumstances

00:19:19.580 who are going to be

00:19:20.760 less likely to graduate

00:19:21.920 from college.

00:19:22.660 One filter that I show

00:19:23.780 in the book is actually

00:19:25.000 the size of their parents' income

00:19:26.440 is a pretty strong predictor

00:19:27.900 of how likely people

00:19:28.820 who enroll in college

00:19:30.300 are to actually graduate

00:19:31.940 because that money

00:19:33.100 that their parents have

00:19:33.920 helps eliminate the risk

00:19:35.640 of potential bad outcomes.

00:19:36.860 You know,

00:19:36.980 being able to pay for tuition.

00:19:38.300 What if my car breaks down?

00:19:39.420 What if I need tutoring?

00:19:40.620 Am I going to have to work a job?

00:19:42.360 So it wouldn't make sense

00:19:43.920 for somebody who

00:19:44.620 is trying to graduate

00:19:45.720 from college,

00:19:46.400 you know,

00:19:46.560 to enroll in four

00:19:47.520 separate universities

00:19:48.580 with the hopes

00:19:49.560 of playing the odds

00:19:50.560 and one of them succeeding.

00:19:51.920 So there are goals

00:19:52.720 where it doesn't make

00:19:53.420 any sense at all.

00:19:54.200 And in those situations,

00:19:55.220 we certainly have an opportunity

00:19:56.880 to choose goals

00:19:57.740 based on our odds of success.

00:19:58.860 But what I get

00:19:59.880 really passionate about

00:20:00.760 and the foundation

00:20:01.440 of my consulting work

00:20:02.520 is helping people

00:20:03.320 change their odds

00:20:04.380 and take something

00:20:05.200 that might be

00:20:05.680 a predicted failure

00:20:06.620 and turn it

00:20:07.380 into a predicted success.

00:20:09.020 All right.

00:20:09.140 So that takes us

00:20:09.580 to the fourth way

00:20:10.560 you pursue goals.

00:20:11.320 This is probability hacking.

00:20:12.820 This is what the book is about.

00:20:14.200 But before you can understand

00:20:16.160 probability hacking,

00:20:17.300 you have to understand

00:20:18.200 some rudimentary things

00:20:19.380 about probability.

00:20:20.720 The problem is

00:20:21.840 humans have a really hard time

00:20:24.180 understanding probability.

00:20:26.620 Why is that?

00:20:28.620 Well,

00:20:28.820 I think that the biggest reason

00:20:30.000 is I just don't think

00:20:30.740 many of us

00:20:31.140 get any education

00:20:32.100 on it whatsoever.

00:20:32.740 Something that I think

00:20:33.700 is really interesting

00:20:34.300 is that I think

00:20:35.300 almost all of us

00:20:36.100 took a class

00:20:36.840 on trigonometry.

00:20:38.300 Trigonometry is important, 0.99

00:20:39.520 really interesting,

00:20:40.780 but it's for the most part

00:20:41.780 only used

00:20:42.380 in really specific professions

00:20:44.080 like engineering

00:20:44.780 and architecture.

00:20:45.760 I've never used

00:20:46.480 trigonometry in my career.

00:20:48.280 Probability affects

00:20:48.980 all of us

00:20:49.600 all the time

00:20:50.460 and most of us

00:20:51.340 didn't get any training

00:20:52.140 on it at all.

00:20:52.860 So I do think

00:20:54.280 it can be difficult

00:20:55.000 to understand.

00:20:56.000 I think that I've worked hard

00:20:57.260 to make it

00:20:57.620 as understandable

00:20:58.220 as possible,

00:20:59.060 but I think the reason

00:21:00.360 so many of us

00:21:00.860 are struggling

00:21:01.280 is nobody ever told us.

00:21:03.560 Yeah,

00:21:03.600 I think I remember

00:21:04.320 like one section

00:21:05.840 in middle school math

00:21:07.680 where they talked

00:21:08.740 about probability

00:21:09.420 and then it was

00:21:10.080 really quick

00:21:10.680 and then you didn't

00:21:11.160 revisit it after that.

00:21:12.260 Sure.

00:21:13.060 Yeah.

00:21:13.660 So when people

00:21:15.000 try to think

00:21:16.000 about probability,

00:21:17.240 what do they typically

00:21:18.420 mess up

00:21:19.260 when they're thinking

00:21:20.040 about probability

00:21:20.700 of goals,

00:21:21.700 for example?

00:21:22.780 Yeah,

00:21:23.000 let's unpack this

00:21:23.900 in the context

00:21:24.380 of an example,

00:21:25.020 okay?

00:21:25.180 Let's say that you

00:21:25.900 want to run a marathon.

00:21:27.360 That's a goal

00:21:27.840 that you've set,

00:21:28.540 but you're doing it

00:21:28.980 on sort of short notice.

00:21:29.920 Let's say you have 90 days

00:21:31.020 to get ready.

00:21:31.960 That's by most standards

00:21:33.040 not a lot of time

00:21:34.100 to prepare for a marathon

00:21:34.940 if you're not already

00:21:35.780 an active runner.

00:21:36.700 So you hire a running coach

00:21:38.260 and she tells you,

00:21:39.480 I can get you there.

00:21:40.240 I can get you ready to go,

00:21:41.740 but you're going to have

00:21:42.780 to do three things.

00:21:43.900 I've got a three-step routine.

00:21:45.960 You're going to need

00:21:46.520 to eat,

00:21:47.340 sleep,

00:21:47.700 and train

00:21:48.400 the way that I tell you to.

00:21:49.820 If you do all three

00:21:50.700 of those things,

00:21:51.420 I can have you ready

00:21:52.200 in 90 days.

00:21:53.200 If you don't do

00:21:54.080 all three of those things,

00:21:55.020 if you cheat on them

00:21:55.840 or if you only do

00:21:56.420 some of them

00:21:56.900 or if you're inconsistent,

00:21:58.000 there's no way

00:21:58.740 I can get you ready

00:21:59.280 to run a marathon

00:21:59.880 in three months.

00:22:01.480 So let's take those

00:22:02.380 three prerequisites

00:22:03.380 to our success.

00:22:04.160 We need to eat the way

00:22:04.900 that we're supposed to eat,

00:22:06.020 sleep the way

00:22:06.380 we're supposed to sleep,

00:22:07.080 and train the way

00:22:07.560 we're supposed to train.

00:22:08.920 And let's put some numbers on it.

00:22:10.100 And I've just picked up

00:22:10.760 my cell phone,

00:22:11.380 opened the calculator app.

00:22:12.520 This is very easy math.

00:22:14.040 But let's say that we feel

00:22:14.900 pretty good about

00:22:15.540 each of these things.

00:22:16.160 I'm using made-up numbers.

00:22:17.500 Let's say that we think

00:22:18.740 that we have a 70% chance

00:22:20.280 of sticking with

00:22:21.060 the nutrition plan,

00:22:22.240 a 70% chance

00:22:23.320 of sticking with

00:22:23.820 the sleep schedule,

00:22:24.720 and a 70% chance

00:22:25.780 of sticking with

00:22:26.320 the training regimen,

00:22:27.940 going out and actually

00:22:28.960 running.

00:22:29.960 So there's three things

00:22:30.960 that need to go right.

00:22:31.940 And we think we have

00:22:32.420 a 70% chance

00:22:33.300 at each of them.

00:22:34.280 What many people do,

00:22:35.560 you ask,

00:22:36.080 what are the mistakes

00:22:36.640 that we make

00:22:37.060 in our thinking?

00:22:37.820 What most people do

00:22:38.800 is what could be

00:22:39.840 called averaging.

00:22:40.980 We look at the prerequisites

00:22:42.660 to our success.

00:22:43.340 We try to get a sense

00:22:44.220 of in our minds

00:22:45.000 how likely we are

00:22:45.860 to accomplish

00:22:46.380 each of those things.

00:22:47.500 And then we typically

00:22:48.000 average them.

00:22:49.140 And so in this case,

00:22:50.320 each of these things

00:22:50.960 we think has a 70% chance

00:22:52.320 of happening.

00:22:53.060 Many people would say,

00:22:54.240 great,

00:22:54.420 I have a 70% chance

00:22:55.520 of successfully running

00:22:56.360 this marathon.

00:22:56.820 Even the people

00:22:58.000 who on pen and paper

00:22:59.340 might get the math

00:23:00.340 problem right

00:23:01.000 will still typically

00:23:02.080 do that in their

00:23:02.740 day-to-day thinking.

00:23:04.020 But in truth,

00:23:04.580 you can't average.

00:23:05.760 If you have something

00:23:06.400 that has to go right

00:23:07.540 in order to accomplish

00:23:08.700 a goal,

00:23:09.400 you have to multiply

00:23:10.400 those odds together

00:23:11.240 if you want to get

00:23:11.960 the actual estimate

00:23:13.140 of how likely

00:23:13.740 you are to succeed.

00:23:15.020 So in this case,

00:23:15.800 if we have a 70% chance

00:23:17.040 of eating the way

00:23:17.580 we're supposed to,

00:23:18.500 a 70% chance

00:23:19.400 of sleeping the way

00:23:20.020 we're supposed to,

00:23:20.820 and a 70% chance

00:23:21.940 of training the way

00:23:22.700 we're supposed to,

00:23:23.400 we find that

00:23:24.320 we actually have

00:23:24.900 a 34% chance

00:23:26.500 of being ready

00:23:27.160 on race day.

00:23:28.120 That's a predicted failure.

00:23:29.680 Even though each

00:23:30.260 of these things

00:23:30.700 look good individually,

00:23:31.720 the goal as a whole

00:23:32.880 is not expected

00:23:33.920 to succeed.

00:23:34.900 And I think that's

00:23:35.500 the number one mistake

00:23:36.380 that people make

00:23:37.060 when they're thinking

00:23:37.540 about their odds

00:23:38.060 of success.

00:23:39.560 Okay, so that's

00:23:40.140 the key thing.

00:23:40.620 That's the key point

00:23:41.340 you put there.

00:23:41.780 Your odds of accomplishing

00:23:42.780 a goal could be understood

00:23:43.700 as the odds of each thing

00:23:45.140 that must happen

00:23:45.860 in order for you

00:23:47.060 to succeed

00:23:47.600 multiplied together.

00:23:48.940 That's right.

00:23:49.640 Right.

00:23:50.300 And a lot of people

00:23:50.880 miss the fact that

00:23:51.560 the more things

00:23:52.320 that have to go right,

00:23:53.600 the lower your odds

00:23:54.340 are going to be.

00:23:54.960 If there's even one step

00:23:56.380 that is unlikely to happen,

00:23:58.340 then your overall odds

00:23:59.320 aren't going to be very high.

00:24:00.460 That's why we have to do

00:24:01.180 what we can

00:24:01.660 to change our odds

00:24:02.600 of success.

00:24:03.900 And going back

00:24:04.480 to that example

00:24:05.260 of the marathon,

00:24:06.080 another point

00:24:06.680 about probability

00:24:07.360 is as you accomplish

00:24:08.860 a step,

00:24:10.020 your odds start

00:24:10.820 to go up.

00:24:11.680 So in the beginning,

00:24:12.600 it's 34%

00:24:13.620 if you multiply

00:24:14.360 70% times 70%

00:24:15.620 times 70%.

00:24:16.360 That's right.

00:24:16.740 But let's say

00:24:17.120 you successfully

00:24:17.780 stick to the diet plan

00:24:18.820 100% throughout the thing.

00:24:20.660 Well, now your odds

00:24:22.240 go up.

00:24:23.540 Yeah, that's absolutely true.

00:24:24.820 It's 100 times 70

00:24:26.200 times 70.

00:24:27.580 Sure, that's exactly right.

00:24:28.680 You know, in this case,

00:24:29.500 the hypothetical

00:24:30.560 I've set up

00:24:31.120 is sort of poorly

00:24:31.980 constructed for this

00:24:32.740 in the sense that

00:24:33.220 we want you to do

00:24:33.780 all three of these things

00:24:34.740 for 90 days.

00:24:35.540 But let's flip it.

00:24:36.220 Let's just,

00:24:36.640 for imagination's sake,

00:24:38.000 say that for one month

00:24:39.060 we need to follow

00:24:39.600 a nutrition plan.

00:24:40.580 Then for the next month

00:24:41.380 we need to follow

00:24:41.840 a sleep schedule.

00:24:42.640 Then for the next month

00:24:43.500 we need to follow

00:24:44.040 a training plan.

00:24:45.240 If we were to

00:24:46.180 make it through

00:24:46.840 the first month,

00:24:47.720 then we would only have

00:24:48.780 two more prerequisites

00:24:50.220 to our success.

00:24:51.200 And if both of those

00:24:51.780 had a 70% chance of happening,

00:24:53.260 exactly what you just said,

00:24:54.620 we would be up to

00:24:55.460 a 49% chance of success.

00:24:56.960 That's quite a bit better.

00:24:58.140 If we made it

00:24:58.620 through the second month

00:24:59.440 for the last month,

00:25:00.240 we would have a 70% chance

00:25:01.340 of success, right?

00:25:02.080 Because we've taken care

00:25:03.080 of those other prerequisites.

00:25:04.580 So you're absolutely right

00:25:05.560 for goals that have

00:25:06.520 a more linear structure,

00:25:08.340 which many of them do.

00:25:09.860 Every time you accomplish

00:25:11.000 a step on the path

00:25:12.080 to getting what you want,

00:25:13.340 your odds improve.

00:25:14.400 And if that was

00:25:15.500 an unlikely step,

00:25:16.440 your odds can improve enormously.

00:25:18.600 Yeah.

00:25:18.680 And going to that idea

00:25:19.580 of an unlikely step,

00:25:22.140 your odds can't exceed

00:25:23.620 your most unlikely step.

00:25:25.680 Yeah.

00:25:25.980 Your odds will never be better

00:25:27.160 than the least likely step.

00:25:28.460 If there's something

00:25:28.960 that absolutely has to happen

00:25:30.260 for you to succeed,

00:25:31.180 let's say that you have

00:25:32.120 to have a certain

00:25:33.460 superior's approval

00:25:34.580 in order to get a proposal

00:25:36.180 through at work.

00:25:36.920 Without that,

00:25:37.680 it can't happen.

00:25:38.800 If you only have

00:25:39.440 a 10% chance

00:25:40.200 of getting that approval,

00:25:41.340 then your overall odds

00:25:42.340 are going to be lower

00:25:43.200 than 10%

00:25:43.880 because there's probably

00:25:44.640 other things that need

00:25:45.480 to happen too.

00:25:46.560 You can never outperform

00:25:47.760 your most unlikely step.

00:25:49.440 And that's why it's really important

00:25:50.660 to prioritize those steps

00:25:51.920 when you're trying

00:25:52.320 to change your odds.

00:25:53.620 It can also be really important

00:25:54.560 to try to front load

00:25:55.460 those steps.

00:25:56.240 If I need somebody's approval

00:25:57.540 in order to get a proposal passed

00:25:58.960 and there's only a 10% chance

00:26:00.140 of that happening,

00:26:01.160 it could be smart to start

00:26:02.440 by asking for the approval

00:26:03.680 so that if they say no,

00:26:05.260 I won't waste a lot of time

00:26:06.620 on trying to get

00:26:07.440 other team buy-in,

00:26:08.740 you know,

00:26:08.920 creating a prototype,

00:26:10.420 putting pitch decks together,

00:26:11.720 whatever the case may be.

00:26:13.200 If I'm going to fail,

00:26:14.280 it can be good to fail fast

00:26:15.720 so that I can recover faster,

00:26:17.540 move on to other ideas.

00:26:19.380 Any other big picture ideas

00:26:20.540 about probability

00:26:21.360 that people have to understand

00:26:22.740 before they can start

00:26:24.080 probability hacking?

00:26:25.540 I think the only other one

00:26:26.460 is you need to recognize

00:26:27.400 that the odds

00:26:27.860 of all possible events

00:26:28.820 add up to 100%.

00:26:29.940 If I flip a coin,

00:26:31.000 there's two possible outcomes,

00:26:32.440 50% chance of heads,

00:26:33.540 50% chance of tails.

00:26:35.180 In real life,

00:26:35.820 our goals aren't that simple,

00:26:37.400 but the same principle holds.

00:26:39.040 The odds of all possible outcomes

00:26:40.960 are going to add up to 100%.

00:26:42.640 What that teaches us

00:26:43.520 is if we want to improve

00:26:44.660 our odds of success,

00:26:45.840 we have to get away

00:26:47.240 from this idea

00:26:48.160 that we're going to somehow

00:26:49.960 wish something into existence.

00:26:51.520 A lot of people want to use

00:26:52.540 commitment

00:26:53.220 as this antidote to risk.

00:26:55.800 Commitment doesn't

00:26:56.420 de-risk your goal at all.

00:26:58.060 You know,

00:26:58.700 confidence or grit,

00:27:01.100 that's not going to reduce

00:27:02.560 the risk of bad outcomes.

00:27:04.200 In the case of the marathon,

00:27:05.020 if we need to train

00:27:05.860 for 90 days,

00:27:06.980 what are some potential

00:27:07.940 bad outcomes

00:27:08.700 that could go wrong

00:27:09.600 that could keep us

00:27:10.280 from sticking to the training plan?

00:27:11.780 Maybe it's raining

00:27:12.560 on a day when we need to train.

00:27:14.380 Maybe we get shin splints,

00:27:15.840 you know,

00:27:16.200 halfway through the 90 days.

00:27:18.120 Maybe we lose our motivation

00:27:19.380 and we just don't want

00:27:20.140 to get out of bed

00:27:20.640 and go running.

00:27:21.340 Maybe our family,

00:27:22.580 you know,

00:27:22.760 events happen in our lives

00:27:24.040 and our schedule

00:27:24.500 becomes too busy.

00:27:26.000 All of those

00:27:26.560 are potential bad outcomes

00:27:27.620 that could keep us

00:27:28.940 from accomplishing

00:27:29.600 the training plan.

00:27:30.740 All of those outcomes,

00:27:31.840 the odds of each

00:27:32.660 of the bad outcomes

00:27:33.500 and the odds

00:27:34.540 of the one good outcome

00:27:35.520 sticking with the training plan

00:27:36.540 are going to add up to 100%.

00:27:37.840 And so if we want to change

00:27:39.040 our odds of success,

00:27:39.760 we need to think negative.

00:27:41.100 We need to look at

00:27:41.920 what are the bad outcomes

00:27:43.040 that could keep me

00:27:43.600 from getting this?

00:27:44.640 How can I make those

00:27:45.540 less likely to happen

00:27:46.760 so that I can bring

00:27:47.780 those odds over to my side?

00:27:49.820 Probability can be understood

00:27:50.920 a lot like how we've

00:27:52.400 traditionally understood matter.

00:27:53.960 The idea that it can't be

00:27:54.900 created or destroyed,

00:27:56.340 it can just be transferred

00:27:57.320 and rearranged.

00:27:58.540 The odds that you want

00:27:59.520 are hiding

00:28:00.140 in your potential bad outcomes.

00:28:01.880 We need to find those,

00:28:03.100 make them as unlikely

00:28:03.860 as possible

00:28:04.540 and bring the odds

00:28:05.580 over to our side.

00:28:06.240 We're going to take

00:28:07.980 a quick break

00:28:08.380 for your words

00:28:08.820 from our sponsors.

00:28:10.780 So like a lot of you,

00:28:11.720 I'm a busy guy,

00:28:12.700 got family,

00:28:13.640 got work,

00:28:14.520 trying to get in

00:28:15.100 a workout in there

00:28:15.860 and sometimes

00:28:16.200 I don't have time

00:28:17.160 for that after workout meal.

00:28:19.520 And one thing

00:28:19.880 that's come in clutch

00:28:20.620 is cachava.

00:28:21.760 I just shake up

00:28:22.400 two scoops with water

00:28:23.260 and that's it.

00:28:24.320 No blender,

00:28:25.120 no fruit,

00:28:25.680 no fuss.

00:28:26.460 Even with just water,

00:28:27.440 cachava tastes great

00:28:28.500 and is still creamy.

00:28:29.900 Tastes amazing.

00:28:31.000 Each cachava shake

00:28:31.980 packs 25 grams

00:28:32.960 of plant-based protein,

00:28:34.400 six grams of fiber,

00:28:35.340 plus all the other stuff

00:28:36.420 your body needs

00:28:37.120 but you don't want

00:28:37.640 to think about.

00:28:38.520 Greens,

00:28:39.100 adaptogens,

00:28:39.820 probiotics,

00:28:40.500 omega-3s and more. 0.63

00:28:41.900 And what I appreciate

00:28:42.620 is there's no weird ingredients.

00:28:44.340 No soy,

00:28:44.920 no gluten,

00:28:45.500 no artificial sweeteners.

00:28:46.700 It's just clean,

00:28:47.840 functional nutrition

00:28:48.540 in one scoopable bag.

00:28:50.240 My favorite flavor,

00:28:51.000 they got a lot of flavors too.

00:28:52.420 My favorite is the chocolate.

00:28:53.920 Classic,

00:28:54.400 standby.

00:28:54.780 Tastes great.

00:28:55.360 Tastes,

00:28:55.960 it's really good.

00:28:56.560 And again,

00:28:56.960 like I said,

00:28:57.300 all you need

00:28:57.620 is just water with it.

00:28:58.420 You can add milk,

00:28:59.300 fruit if you want,

00:29:00.260 but with water,

00:29:01.080 it's amazing.

00:29:01.920 Rewild your nutrition

00:29:02.740 at cachava.com

00:29:03.660 and use code manliness

00:29:04.680 when you check out.

00:29:05.920 New customers get $20 off

00:29:07.600 an order of two bags or more

00:29:08.800 now through the 31st of January.

00:29:11.200 That's cachava.com,

00:29:13.140 K-A-C-H-A-V-A.com,

00:29:16.900 code manliness,

00:29:17.700 to get $20 off

00:29:18.680 an order of two bags or more.

00:29:20.200 Again,

00:29:20.520 this runs through January 31st.

00:29:22.500 If there's one resolution

00:29:23.760 that's worth keeping this year,

00:29:24.900 it's finally launching

00:29:25.700 that business you've had

00:29:26.500 on the back burner

00:29:27.220 for a long time.

00:29:28.480 Whether it's a side hustle

00:29:29.420 you've daydreamed about

00:29:30.260 or an idea people

00:29:31.200 keep telling you to run with,

00:29:32.600 2026 is the year 0.90

00:29:33.840 to stop talking

00:29:34.580 and start doing.

00:29:36.000 And Shopify is the platform

00:29:37.200 that helps you do it.

00:29:38.320 We've been using Shopify

00:29:39.060 for the Art of Manliness store

00:29:40.080 for over a decade now.

00:29:41.180 It is fantastic.

00:29:42.120 It helps you get a site

00:29:42.760 up and running

00:29:43.260 in just a few minutes.

00:29:44.340 You can create

00:29:44.760 a great looking site

00:29:45.640 that works well

00:29:46.500 and is easy to use

00:29:47.220 for your customer.

00:29:48.040 And it takes care

00:29:48.760 of the not so glamorous stuff,

00:29:50.100 inventory, returns,

00:29:51.560 things like that.

00:29:52.640 Very, very useful

00:29:53.400 on the back end.

00:29:54.260 And they got new AI tools

00:29:55.540 to help you write

00:29:55.960 product descriptions

00:29:56.580 and edit your photos.

00:29:57.620 And you can do marketing

00:29:58.480 right from Shopify,

00:29:59.280 create email campaigns,

00:30:00.660 social media campaigns

00:30:01.560 right from your dashboard

00:30:02.860 on Shopify.

00:30:03.900 As your business grows,

00:30:04.980 Shopify grows with you.

00:30:06.120 Whether you're shipping

00:30:06.620 10 orders a week

00:30:07.380 or 10,000,

00:30:08.520 that's why it powers

00:30:09.280 millions of businesses

00:30:10.160 around the world

00:30:10.780 from solo shops

00:30:11.880 to household names

00:30:12.880 like Mattel.

00:30:13.860 Turn your idea

00:30:14.560 into income with Shopify.

00:30:16.200 Sign up for your $1

00:30:16.900 per month trial

00:30:17.640 and start selling today

00:30:18.540 at shopify.com

00:30:19.660 slash manliness.

00:30:20.820 That's shopify.com

00:30:22.140 slash manliness.

00:30:24.140 And now back to the show.

00:30:25.980 Okay, so we got some

00:30:27.480 basic principles

00:30:28.040 of probability.

00:30:29.160 I like the idea.

00:30:30.000 Your odds of accomplishing

00:30:30.840 a goal can be understood

00:30:31.700 as the odds

00:30:32.320 of each thing

00:30:32.820 that must happen

00:30:33.460 in order for you

00:30:34.040 to succeed

00:30:34.480 multiplied together.

00:30:35.900 So if there's multiple

00:30:36.700 steps in your goal,

00:30:38.020 the way you figure out

00:30:38.740 the probability

00:30:39.360 is you figure out

00:30:40.700 the probability

00:30:41.200 of each step

00:30:41.960 and then you multiply

00:30:42.900 those together.

00:30:43.760 And that leads

00:30:44.640 to the idea

00:30:45.160 that the more steps

00:30:46.200 your goal has

00:30:47.840 or more sub-steps

00:30:48.640 your goal has,

00:30:49.640 the odds are going

00:30:50.200 to go down.

00:30:51.180 Your odds of success

00:30:51.860 are going to get harder

00:30:52.440 because you add more

00:30:53.080 things you can multiply.

00:30:54.420 The odds of achieving

00:30:55.040 a goal will never

00:30:55.580 be higher than the odds

00:30:56.540 of your most improbable

00:30:57.360 pre-resequit goal.

00:30:58.240 We talked about that.

00:30:59.260 With that out of the way,

00:31:00.120 we can start talking

00:31:00.940 about probability hacking.

00:31:03.100 And a key skill

00:31:04.280 for this

00:31:04.920 is success diagrams.

00:31:06.620 So what is

00:31:07.260 a success diagram?

00:31:09.000 So a success diagram

00:31:10.060 is where you map out

00:31:11.100 everything that has

00:31:11.740 to go right

00:31:12.300 in order for you

00:31:12.900 to accomplish a goal.

00:31:13.920 And I know that's

00:31:14.420 a little bit challenging

00:31:15.220 in an audio format,

00:31:16.360 but you just painted,

00:31:17.560 I think,

00:31:17.680 a really good picture

00:31:18.340 for us.

00:31:19.340 It's everything

00:31:19.980 that has to go right

00:31:20.820 just lined up

00:31:21.800 one after the other.

00:31:23.200 And then ultimately

00:31:23.780 at the end,

00:31:24.420 you can multiply those out

00:31:25.720 and get a sense

00:31:26.160 of your odds of success.

00:31:27.380 And what I do

00:31:27.860 is beneath each thing

00:31:28.820 that has to go right,

00:31:29.940 I write down

00:31:30.680 the potential bad outcomes

00:31:32.020 that I can imagine

00:31:32.720 happening instead

00:31:33.780 of what I want.

00:31:34.680 So in the context

00:31:35.260 of the marathon example,

00:31:36.240 we made up a few

00:31:37.240 for the idea of training

00:31:38.960 that it could be raining

00:31:40.200 on a day when I have to train.

00:31:41.460 I might lose my motivation.

00:31:42.720 I might deal

00:31:43.140 with shin splints.

00:31:44.840 I put those beneath each,

00:31:46.540 I call them critical points,

00:31:47.580 but each of these

00:31:48.040 prerequisite steps

00:31:49.040 on the path to success.

00:31:50.860 And then the probability

00:31:51.700 hacking framework

00:31:52.520 is really just the very fun,

00:31:54.960 creative opportunity

00:31:56.180 to try to systematically

00:31:57.540 de-risk our goals.

00:31:59.020 What can I do

00:31:59.620 to make each of those

00:32:00.460 bad outcomes

00:32:01.240 less likely to happen?

00:32:03.100 If I think that it might rain

00:32:04.620 on a day when I have to train,

00:32:06.360 what can I do about that?

00:32:07.760 Maybe I need a gym membership

00:32:08.820 for the next 90 days

00:32:09.920 so that I'll have

00:32:10.560 an alternative place to train.

00:32:11.960 Maybe I need a treadmill

00:32:12.980 in my house.

00:32:13.960 If I'm worried about

00:32:14.760 a lack of motivation,

00:32:16.120 what can I do about that?

00:32:17.100 Maybe I need a running partner,

00:32:18.120 somebody who could

00:32:18.480 hold me accountable,

00:32:19.560 help me get through

00:32:20.400 this maybe demanding season.

00:32:21.900 If I'm worried about

00:32:23.100 family or work

00:32:24.540 swamping my schedule,

00:32:26.180 what can I do about that?

00:32:27.520 Well, maybe I have

00:32:28.480 an opportunity to train

00:32:29.760 first thing in the morning

00:32:30.560 before those things

00:32:31.480 can all go wrong.

00:32:33.000 Maybe I need to buy

00:32:33.820 an extra pair of running shoes

00:32:35.200 and keep those in my car

00:32:36.600 so that if I get a gap

00:32:38.080 in my schedule,

00:32:38.600 I'll be able to get out there

00:32:39.560 and do this work.

00:32:41.060 So you go through

00:32:42.180 step by step,

00:32:43.600 potential bad outcome

00:32:44.440 by potential bad outcome,

00:32:45.700 trying to make each of those

00:32:47.140 risks as unlikely as possible.

00:32:49.280 And I want to, again,

00:32:49.940 just demonstrate

00:32:50.560 the opportunity here.

00:32:51.700 When we thought

00:32:52.080 we had a 70% chance

00:32:53.320 of accomplishing

00:32:53.900 each of these three things,

00:32:55.360 our odds were 34%.

00:32:56.960 Let's say that

00:32:57.940 after this creative work

00:32:59.280 of probability hacking,

00:33:00.740 we think there's a 90% chance

00:33:01.920 we'll eat the way

00:33:02.420 we're supposed to

00:33:03.020 and a 90% chance

00:33:03.960 we'll sleep the way

00:33:04.480 we're supposed to.

00:33:05.120 A 90% chance

00:33:05.880 we'll train the way

00:33:06.500 we're supposed to.

00:33:07.460 That's a 73% chance

00:33:08.760 of success.

00:33:09.400 We've just taken

00:33:10.220 something that was

00:33:11.020 predicted to fail

00:33:11.880 and turned it into

00:33:12.840 something that was

00:33:13.360 predicted to succeed.

00:33:14.700 And we didn't do that

00:33:15.540 by really committing

00:33:17.040 and really digging deep

00:33:18.380 and saying,

00:33:18.940 I'm going to run

00:33:19.600 this marathon.

00:33:20.420 That's not going

00:33:21.140 to prevent the rain,

00:33:22.080 but there are

00:33:22.800 some strategic steps

00:33:23.760 we can take

00:33:24.380 to prepare for that,

00:33:25.640 to respond to that,

00:33:26.660 and to improve our odds.

00:33:28.020 All right,

00:33:28.140 so this is all about

00:33:28.840 considering,

00:33:29.860 here are all the things

00:33:30.940 that are going to

00:33:31.420 have to go right.

00:33:32.420 And then for each

00:33:33.480 one of those things,

00:33:34.700 here's the potential

00:33:35.840 bad outcomes

00:33:36.700 that could keep us

00:33:37.860 from getting what we want.

00:33:39.520 And you just talked

00:33:40.460 about an example

00:33:41.500 where you put real numbers

00:33:42.780 to certain outcomes.

00:33:43.720 And that's something

00:33:44.680 you can do to ballpark

00:33:46.580 the probabilities of things

00:33:48.180 based on all your

00:33:49.820 specific personal circumstances.

00:33:52.420 And sometimes you can do

00:33:53.380 research for statistics

00:33:54.880 for the probabilities

00:33:55.960 of things like,

00:33:56.680 you know,

00:33:56.820 starting a successful restaurant.

00:33:58.400 But some of our goals

00:33:59.700 are so personal

00:34:00.960 that you're not going

00:34:02.680 to find outside numbers

00:34:04.040 for it.

00:34:04.600 You're not going to be able

00:34:05.320 to peg the probabilities

00:34:06.460 exactly.

00:34:07.280 But this framework

00:34:08.100 still works to increase

00:34:09.220 your chances for success.

00:34:10.560 So give us another

00:34:11.240 real world example

00:34:12.280 where you haven't put

00:34:13.600 exact numbers

00:34:14.480 the probabilities

00:34:15.220 of potential outcomes.

00:34:17.180 But you can still use

00:34:18.020 probability hacking

00:34:18.960 to increase your odds

00:34:20.080 of success.

00:34:21.060 Yeah.

00:34:21.360 What we just did

00:34:21.920 is something I call

00:34:22.400 a predictive hack.

00:34:23.520 But I also have in the book

00:34:24.760 what I call an easy hack

00:34:25.660 where it's not about

00:34:26.400 predicting our odds

00:34:27.320 of success.

00:34:28.340 Predictions aren't

00:34:28.980 going to be perfect.

00:34:29.740 I don't have a model

00:34:30.460 for you that's going

00:34:31.040 to give you perfect numbers.

00:34:32.380 And even if I did,

00:34:33.600 a 99% chance of success

00:34:35.320 still says you're going

00:34:36.820 to fail sometimes,

00:34:37.960 you know, not often,

00:34:38.620 but you're going

00:34:38.940 to fail sometimes.

00:34:40.020 And I give some examples

00:34:40.780 of people who have experienced

00:34:41.960 really unlikely failures.

00:34:43.600 I tell the story

00:34:44.240 of a client,

00:34:44.920 Marianne Roach-Smith,

00:34:45.760 who got this incredible

00:34:47.020 book deal,

00:34:47.960 did an amazing job

00:34:48.980 writing a book

00:34:49.520 that was so popular.

00:34:51.040 The day before

00:34:52.120 it was supposed

00:34:52.720 to be released,

00:34:53.700 it was number 32

00:34:54.860 in the entire Amazon store.

00:34:56.960 This book was poised

00:34:57.900 on pre-order

00:34:58.680 to be one of the biggest

00:34:59.800 books that have been

00:35:00.300 released in years.

00:35:01.580 The next day,

00:35:02.220 her book comes out.

00:35:03.460 She's headed to the dentist 0.90

00:35:04.320 when she gets a call

00:35:04.960 from her husband.

00:35:05.860 He's the editor

00:35:06.380 of a local newspaper.

00:35:07.800 He said,

00:35:08.080 turn on the television.

00:35:09.300 She turns on the TV

00:35:10.000 and she watched

00:35:10.680 as a plane crashed

00:35:11.720 into the World Trade Center.

00:35:12.600 She launched her book

00:35:13.920 on September 11th, 2001.

00:35:16.020 And at that point,

00:35:16.580 it didn't matter

00:35:17.120 that they were number 32

00:35:18.300 in the world

00:35:18.880 the day before.

00:35:19.960 All of a sudden,

00:35:20.540 the media was so consumed

00:35:21.920 by the news cycle

00:35:23.520 surrounding the terrorist attack

00:35:25.280 that there was no opportunity

00:35:26.380 to launch a book.

00:35:27.580 So having good odds

00:35:28.960 of success

00:35:29.340 doesn't guarantee success.

00:35:30.580 And that's why

00:35:31.040 sometimes it's appropriate

00:35:32.020 to even just take the numbers

00:35:32.940 out of the equation.

00:35:33.660 If we don't know

00:35:34.360 all of the steps

00:35:35.020 that we're going to have

00:35:35.520 to accomplish,

00:35:36.180 our numbers would be wrong anyway.

00:35:37.760 So let me give you

00:35:38.340 an easy hack example.

00:35:39.420 When I graduated from college,

00:35:41.520 I didn't want to start

00:35:42.720 with an entry-level position.

00:35:43.980 I just wasn't motivated by that.

00:35:45.740 I was 21 years old

00:35:46.960 and I decided

00:35:47.660 I was going to try

00:35:48.140 something really audacious.

00:35:49.360 I was going to apply

00:35:50.040 to become the product

00:35:50.980 development director

00:35:51.920 for a health organization.

00:35:53.800 If I got the job,

00:35:54.580 I was going to be managing people

00:35:55.700 in their 50s, 60s, and 70s.

00:35:57.400 People with PhDs

00:35:58.620 and master's degrees.

00:35:59.740 I was 21 years old.

00:36:00.580 I had a bachelor's degree

00:36:01.680 in business administration

00:36:03.000 from the University of Oklahoma.

00:36:04.740 Pretty ambitious goal.

00:36:06.100 Pretty ambitious goal.

00:36:06.960 I was interviewing against people

00:36:08.480 who had so much more experience

00:36:10.040 than I did.

00:36:11.060 But I used the same approach

00:36:12.280 and this was years

00:36:12.940 before I even started consulting.

00:36:14.300 I tried to identify

00:36:15.000 what are the potential bad outcomes

00:36:16.820 that could keep me

00:36:17.360 from getting this job?

00:36:18.640 The obvious one was

00:36:19.600 what if they look down on me

00:36:20.800 because they think I'm too young?

00:36:22.280 So I took a really simple step

00:36:23.940 in response to that.

00:36:24.720 I just grew a beard.

00:36:26.160 It wasn't anything magical.

00:36:27.480 It wasn't anything crazy.

00:36:28.540 I just grew a beard

00:36:29.500 so that I could look

00:36:30.540 significantly older

00:36:31.900 than I looked without a beard

00:36:33.240 to try to lessen

00:36:34.120 some of those concerns.

00:36:35.600 Another potential bad outcome

00:36:36.640 was they might not want to hire me

00:36:38.040 because of a perceived

00:36:38.920 lack of experience.

00:36:40.260 So I tried to change

00:36:41.300 the conversation away

00:36:42.700 from past experience.

00:36:44.220 What I actually did

00:36:44.780 is I wrote a book

00:36:45.820 of everything I was planning to do

00:36:47.820 to turn that department around

00:36:49.280 and make it as successful

00:36:50.520 as possible.

00:36:51.480 I got that book spiral bound.

00:36:53.280 I handed it out

00:36:53.920 to every person I met

00:36:54.800 on interview day.

00:36:55.900 And so we never talked about

00:36:57.100 my past experience.

00:36:58.480 We talked about here's my plan

00:36:59.620 for turning the department around.

00:37:01.060 And so they never really saw

00:37:02.340 these kind of glaring holes

00:37:04.080 in my resume

00:37:04.620 in the sense that

00:37:05.220 I was a recent college graduate.

00:37:06.640 I didn't misrepresent anything.

00:37:07.880 I just tried to change

00:37:08.980 the emphasis of the conversation.

00:37:10.720 A third thing that I did

00:37:11.440 was the concern

00:37:11.920 that I wasn't going to fit in

00:37:12.920 with these other team members

00:37:13.800 because they were so much

00:37:14.700 older than I was.

00:37:15.680 That was a potential bad outcome.

00:37:17.360 So I asked one of the members

00:37:18.660 of the team,

00:37:19.320 have you guys as a group

00:37:20.520 read any books lately?

00:37:22.000 And she told me three books

00:37:23.200 that they had read

00:37:23.880 as a department.

00:37:24.860 So I went and read

00:37:25.720 all three books.

00:37:27.020 And I remember one day

00:37:27.820 we had a group interview.

00:37:28.740 It was me and some other candidates.

00:37:30.020 They all had gray hair.

00:37:31.160 I was 21 years old.

00:37:32.620 And I was able to make

00:37:33.600 inside jokes

00:37:34.660 and speak the company's language

00:37:36.120 because I'd read the same books.

00:37:37.640 One of the books

00:37:38.020 was a book called

00:37:38.700 The Wuffy Factor. 0.78

00:37:39.660 It's about earning trust

00:37:40.860 or social capital

00:37:42.040 in the environment

00:37:43.920 in which you're competing.

00:37:45.440 And so, you know,

00:37:46.020 when I'm using words like Wuffy

00:37:47.320 and my competitors

00:37:48.460 are looking at me like,

00:37:49.560 what on earth

00:37:49.940 is he talking about?

00:37:50.720 And all of the internal

00:37:51.520 team members are laughing.

00:37:53.020 I knew that I had done

00:37:53.740 a pretty effective job

00:37:54.720 of hacking that potential

00:37:55.720 bad outcome.

00:37:56.700 The next morning

00:37:57.640 after that group interview,

00:37:58.680 I got an email

00:37:59.200 from the CEO

00:37:59.940 who I'd only met

00:38:00.660 very briefly,

00:38:01.780 but I'd given him a copy

00:38:02.680 of one of my spiral bound plans

00:38:04.480 because I'm crazy.

00:38:06.000 And he said,

00:38:06.980 you're the most prepared

00:38:07.740 candidate I've ever seen.

00:38:08.940 And I knew I had

00:38:09.760 a good shot after that.

00:38:10.680 I ultimately did get the job,

00:38:12.160 became the product

00:38:12.760 development director,

00:38:13.580 held that position

00:38:14.140 for several years.

00:38:15.260 It's one of the jobs

00:38:15.900 I was ultimately laid off from,

00:38:17.280 but it absolutely

00:38:18.140 positioned me

00:38:19.040 for a career

00:38:19.820 that I don't think

00:38:20.380 I ever would have had,

00:38:21.280 at least not as quickly

00:38:22.460 as I was able to have it

00:38:23.560 without that initial success.

00:38:26.100 Okay.

00:38:26.260 So yeah,

00:38:26.560 so a success diagram,

00:38:27.660 just kind of recap

00:38:28.360 here for our listeners.

00:38:29.360 You basically,

00:38:30.200 you establish your goal

00:38:31.780 and then you break that goal

00:38:32.800 into what you call

00:38:33.520 critical points.

00:38:34.340 Like these are sub goals.

00:38:35.960 And then underneath

00:38:36.920 each critical point

00:38:38.260 or sub goal,

00:38:38.860 you're going to list out

00:38:39.880 potential bad outcomes

00:38:41.340 for that sub goal.

00:38:42.700 That's exactly right.

00:38:43.680 And then once you have

00:38:44.300 that laid out,

00:38:45.040 I mean,

00:38:45.700 easy as you said,

00:38:46.380 you can just start looking

00:38:47.420 at the potential bad outcomes

00:38:48.640 and ask yourself,

00:38:49.340 what can I do to eliminate

00:38:50.540 or reduce this potential bad outcome?

00:38:52.640 And that's going to increase

00:38:54.060 the odds that this critical point

00:38:56.440 is going to be success.

00:38:57.800 As the odds of your bad outcomes

00:38:59.360 go down, 0.52

00:38:59.960 the odds of your good outcomes

00:39:01.020 go up and your overall chance

00:39:02.520 of succeeding

00:39:02.940 can change enormously.

00:39:04.600 So that's probability hacking.

00:39:05.840 That's probability hacking.

00:39:07.180 Yeah.

00:39:07.660 Well,

00:39:07.840 and then you also talk about

00:39:08.760 something else you can do

00:39:09.760 is not only look at

00:39:11.220 how you can eliminate

00:39:12.540 or reduce the potential bad outcomes

00:39:14.600 of each critical point,

00:39:15.800 but look for ways

00:39:17.400 you can strap a rocket

00:39:18.520 to a racehorse.

00:39:20.680 What does that look like?

00:39:22.120 Sure.

00:39:22.440 There is some truth in that.

00:39:24.000 Generally speaking,

00:39:24.840 the most reliable way

00:39:26.060 to change your odds of success

00:39:27.180 is to go look at

00:39:28.080 your potential bad outcomes.

00:39:29.040 That is generally going to be

00:39:30.600 the most reliable way

00:39:31.960 because that's almost

00:39:32.760 always going to work.

00:39:33.540 You're almost always going to have ways

00:39:34.740 to make bad outcomes

00:39:35.800 less likely.

00:39:37.080 However,

00:39:37.940 you also have an opportunity

00:39:38.940 kind of like I alluded to earlier

00:39:40.380 to design the plan as a whole

00:39:42.520 in a way that will optimize

00:39:43.580 your success.

00:39:44.760 So there might be

00:39:45.860 a prerequisite

00:39:46.700 where you need

00:39:47.680 a person's approval.

00:39:48.820 Let's use that again

00:39:49.500 because I gave that example earlier

00:39:50.700 and we think that we only have

00:39:51.920 a 10% chance of getting it.

00:39:53.200 That's meaning that

00:39:54.220 our overall odds of success

00:39:55.480 with this current path

00:39:56.680 are terrible.

00:39:57.420 They're less than 10%

00:39:58.400 because we have to have

00:39:59.040 this person's approval

00:39:59.680 and we don't think

00:40:00.140 we're going to get it.

00:40:01.140 So how do you strap a rocket

00:40:02.220 to a racehorse?

00:40:03.280 Well,

00:40:03.520 if we can design a path

00:40:04.840 to that goal

00:40:05.360 that does not require

00:40:06.440 that person's approval,

00:40:07.760 that's going to be really important.

00:40:09.200 Is there another way

00:40:10.080 to get around that?

00:40:11.480 Or instead of thinking

00:40:12.720 through the bad outcomes,

00:40:13.940 why is this person likely

00:40:15.040 to reject my proposal?

00:40:16.380 That would certainly

00:40:16.860 be one way to do it.

00:40:18.020 There may be an opportunity

00:40:18.980 to kind of circumvent that

00:40:20.260 and just make a deal

00:40:21.420 with the person.

00:40:22.000 If you back my proposal here,

00:40:23.900 I'll back this thing

00:40:24.920 that you're interested in

00:40:25.900 in the future.

00:40:27.060 In that case,

00:40:27.760 the bad outcomes

00:40:28.600 aren't given an opportunity

00:40:29.880 to materialize

00:40:30.660 because you just sort of

00:40:31.360 took them off the table.

00:40:32.420 There wasn't really

00:40:33.020 an opportunity

00:40:33.820 to reject the proposal.

00:40:35.140 You made the conversation

00:40:36.320 about something

00:40:36.940 mutually beneficial.

00:40:38.720 That's another useful aspect

00:40:40.040 of probability hacking

00:40:41.140 because not only can you see

00:40:42.060 how you can eliminate

00:40:43.360 the risk

00:40:44.460 or reduce

00:40:44.880 the potential bad outcomes,

00:40:46.640 you can look at your plan

00:40:48.420 and figure out,

00:40:49.400 well,

00:40:49.440 how can I rearrange things

00:40:50.840 so that my odds go up?

00:40:52.620 I think it's a great...

00:40:53.100 It'll help you determine

00:40:55.520 whether you should

00:40:56.120 even pursue the goal.

00:40:57.380 Oh, 100%.

00:40:57.900 If there's a prerequisite

00:40:58.960 that's like,

00:40:59.540 yeah,

00:40:59.760 that's just not going to happen,

00:41:01.460 it's like,

00:41:01.700 well,

00:41:01.840 maybe I don't pursue this goal.

00:41:03.360 Yeah,

00:41:03.620 or maybe I try that step first.

00:41:04.920 Yeah,

00:41:05.100 even though you could do

00:41:05.840 all the other stuff,

00:41:06.740 right?

00:41:07.640 Totally.

00:41:08.100 I think a lot of people

00:41:08.980 who are frustrated

00:41:10.900 with some of the results

00:41:11.680 they've gotten in life

00:41:12.660 are people who pursued a goal

00:41:13.980 that probably did not

00:41:14.840 have high odds of success.

00:41:16.740 They did it anyway.

00:41:17.980 They didn't really try

00:41:18.740 to front load

00:41:19.360 the riskier steps.

00:41:20.640 In many cases,

00:41:21.460 we actually avoid the steps

00:41:23.000 that we're most scared of.

00:41:24.400 And so only after

00:41:25.320 they'd invested

00:41:26.060 significant amounts

00:41:26.920 of time and money

00:41:27.780 did they get to the steps

00:41:29.020 where they were unlikely

00:41:30.140 to ultimately be able

00:41:31.840 to continue forward.

00:41:33.080 And the losses

00:41:33.880 that come from that

00:41:34.860 can be detrimental

00:41:35.720 to our lives for years.

00:41:37.080 And so it's really important

00:41:38.320 certainly to optimize

00:41:39.120 your odds of success.

00:41:40.460 Also to, again,

00:41:41.480 front load the steps

00:41:42.700 that are unlikely to work

00:41:43.740 if you have the opportunity

00:41:44.820 to do that.

00:41:46.060 And then to some extent,

00:41:47.280 you know,

00:41:47.460 choose our goals strategically.

00:41:48.560 If somebody told me

00:41:49.360 they were trying

00:41:49.700 to cure cancer,

00:41:50.560 I probably wouldn't

00:41:51.320 talk them out of that.

00:41:52.040 I think that's a great thing.

00:41:53.340 But if you're just choosing

00:41:53.980 between should I start

00:41:54.820 company A or company B,

00:41:56.900 I want you to start

00:41:57.580 the company

00:41:57.900 that's more likely

00:41:58.420 to be successful.

00:41:59.940 So you've been working

00:42:00.520 with clients

00:42:01.540 doing consultant work

00:42:02.680 and you're doing

00:42:03.720 this success diagramming

00:42:05.380 with them.

00:42:06.200 Are there examples

00:42:07.160 from your own line of work

00:42:08.580 where you saw people

00:42:09.980 who had the same talent

00:42:11.120 or opportunity

00:42:11.800 but then one hacked

00:42:13.580 their odds

00:42:14.160 while the other didn't?

00:42:16.440 Yeah,

00:42:16.840 I'd be a little bit hesitant

00:42:17.780 to like kind of pit clients

00:42:19.020 against each other

00:42:19.720 but I can tell you

00:42:20.260 something that happened

00:42:20.820 recently that I think

00:42:21.640 is a really good picture

00:42:22.800 of this framework in action

00:42:24.380 because again,

00:42:24.780 it all starts

00:42:25.420 with a success diagram.

00:42:26.560 It all starts

00:42:27.020 with getting a bird's eye view

00:42:28.320 of here's what's going

00:42:29.340 to have to happen

00:42:30.020 for me to be successful

00:42:31.180 and realizing

00:42:32.060 that I have an opportunity

00:42:32.840 to take ownership

00:42:33.640 and change my odds.

00:42:35.360 So recently,

00:42:35.760 I was hired by a non-profit

00:42:37.540 that does incredible work

00:42:39.240 helping the victims

00:42:40.140 of human trafficking,

00:42:41.320 of homelessness,

00:42:42.120 of addiction,

00:42:42.800 hunger,

00:42:43.200 poverty.

00:42:44.160 They're in a part of the country

00:42:45.000 that has a tremendous

00:42:45.620 amount of need.

00:42:46.280 It takes around $25 million

00:42:48.600 a year for them

00:42:49.440 to do this work

00:42:50.200 and about half of that money

00:42:51.460 comes in through

00:42:51.940 their thrift stores.

00:42:52.880 They're able to subsidize it

00:42:53.880 through thrift stores

00:42:54.480 that they own

00:42:54.840 which is really cool.

00:42:56.000 The other half comes in

00:42:57.040 through donations

00:42:57.820 and they had noticed

00:42:59.180 a decline in their donations

00:43:00.520 and they blamed it

00:43:01.760 on the belief that

00:43:02.500 the newsletters

00:43:03.700 they were sending out

00:43:04.340 were becoming less effective.

00:43:05.560 People were getting bored

00:43:06.320 with it.

00:43:06.740 They thought the content

00:43:07.400 was stale.

00:43:08.480 So they hired

00:43:09.140 different consultants

00:43:10.100 to come in

00:43:10.660 and try to revamp it

00:43:11.640 and finally,

00:43:12.300 they turned to me.

00:43:13.440 When I got brought in

00:43:14.640 really with the goal

00:43:15.260 of creating a new content strategy,

00:43:17.120 I did what I always do.

00:43:18.620 I diagrammed out

00:43:19.700 what's everything

00:43:20.320 that has to go right

00:43:21.260 for someone to go

00:43:22.020 from subscriber

00:43:23.060 to regular donor

00:43:24.300 for this ministry.

00:43:26.080 And one of the things

00:43:26.700 that was immediately obvious

00:43:27.740 is people need

00:43:28.600 to actually receive

00:43:29.520 the emails.

00:43:30.240 If there's anything

00:43:30.780 that's causing them

00:43:31.600 to not get the email

00:43:33.060 where we need them

00:43:33.720 to receive it,

00:43:34.540 then it's not going to matter

00:43:35.300 how good the content is.

00:43:36.760 So I did some digging

00:43:37.500 and found that there was actually

00:43:38.720 a glitch in their technical setup

00:43:40.600 that was causing emails 0.68

00:43:41.540 to go to spam

00:43:42.300 for a lot of people

00:43:43.300 and it was a different inbox

00:43:44.920 than what the team was using

00:43:45.940 so they didn't know that.

00:43:46.880 They didn't realize

00:43:47.460 that a huge percentage

00:43:48.260 of their emails

00:43:48.720 were going to spam.

00:43:50.000 I fixed that

00:43:50.780 and the content

00:43:51.620 that they were already creating,

00:43:53.020 already sending out,

00:43:54.340 finally reached people

00:43:55.240 and they were able

00:43:55.860 to start to turn around

00:43:56.780 this decline in donations

00:43:57.940 that they had seen.

00:43:59.080 So anytime you're hacking

00:44:00.520 your odds of success,

00:44:01.500 there's certainly cases

00:44:02.500 in competitive goals

00:44:03.540 where you have an opportunity

00:44:05.100 to kind of head-to-head

00:44:06.560 outmaneuver someone else

00:44:07.620 through your probability hacking.

00:44:08.880 I can give some examples of that.

00:44:10.680 But in the context

00:44:11.160 of my client work,

00:44:12.000 it's usually about

00:44:13.160 what is ultimately keeping us

00:44:15.020 from accomplishing what we want

00:44:16.160 and a lot of times

00:44:16.820 it's not necessarily

00:44:17.520 the thing that I'm getting hired

00:44:18.520 to fix.

00:44:19.200 I go find it anyway.

00:44:20.920 Well, you talk about

00:44:21.580 using probability hacking

00:44:22.840 in competitive head-to-head games

00:44:25.420 and this is reverse probability hacking.

00:44:27.720 Yeah.

00:44:27.980 What is that?

00:44:29.220 Yeah, so reverse probability hacking,

00:44:30.600 we'll start with the default.

00:44:32.820 In probability hacking,

00:44:33.700 I'm trying to make

00:44:34.320 my potential bad outcomes

00:44:35.900 as unlikely as possible.

00:44:37.620 In reverse probability hacking,

00:44:38.960 I'm trying to make

00:44:39.640 my competitors'

00:44:40.620 potential bad outcomes

00:44:41.700 as likely as possible.

00:44:43.320 I'm trying to bring

00:44:44.060 those bad outcomes to life.

00:44:45.860 I give a couple of examples

00:44:47.000 in the book.

00:44:47.520 One is in the world

00:44:48.460 of competitive swimming

00:44:49.300 when these super suits,

00:44:51.160 as they were sometimes called,

00:44:52.220 came out.

00:44:53.060 These new swimsuits

00:44:53.940 were designed

00:44:54.420 that were incredibly aerodynamic.

00:44:57.220 And as a result of that,

00:44:58.120 all of these world records

00:44:59.200 were falling.

00:45:00.240 And there was a period of time

00:45:01.460 where most of the top athletes

00:45:03.140 were arguing

00:45:03.760 that the ability

00:45:04.880 to win a gold medal

00:45:05.760 and the ability

00:45:06.580 to set world records

00:45:08.140 had in large part

00:45:10.320 more to do

00:45:10.860 with the swimsuit

00:45:11.460 you were wearing

00:45:12.140 than how talented you were.

00:45:13.480 And I would totally call

00:45:14.460 that an example

00:45:14.980 of probability hacking.

00:45:16.100 There were people

00:45:16.560 who found a way

00:45:17.740 to minimize resistance

00:45:18.680 in the water

00:45:19.200 and all of a sudden

00:45:20.260 athletes who maybe

00:45:21.100 were more physically gifted,

00:45:22.660 people who were more used

00:45:23.760 to winning these races

00:45:24.880 and setting these records

00:45:25.980 found themselves

00:45:26.880 on the wrong side.

00:45:28.280 There was a really

00:45:28.660 interesting season

00:45:29.500 at the World Championships,

00:45:30.580 I think it was in 2009,

00:45:31.760 where some of the athletes

00:45:32.720 felt so disadvantaged

00:45:33.700 by the swimsuit companies

00:45:34.900 they had contracts with

00:45:36.000 that they were putting

00:45:36.900 duct tape over the logos

00:45:38.620 of other companies' swimsuits

00:45:40.320 so that they could try

00:45:41.520 to get away with swimming

00:45:42.360 in what they saw

00:45:43.100 as a faster suit

00:45:44.080 without potentially being sued

00:45:46.080 or fined by their sponsors.

00:45:48.020 So that would be one example.

00:45:49.020 But another one

00:45:49.760 that I talk about in the book

00:45:50.660 is in 2012,

00:45:52.060 the presidential election.

00:45:53.840 So not getting into politics here,

00:45:55.720 certainly a less divisive

00:45:57.160 political time

00:45:57.860 over 10 years ago.

00:45:59.140 But when Barack Obama

00:46:00.380 ran against Mitt Romney,

00:46:01.800 Mitt Romney was very wealthy,

00:46:03.060 very successful businessman.

00:46:04.100 And one of the real

00:46:05.260 perceived potential

00:46:06.160 bad outcomes for him,

00:46:07.220 both by his own team

00:46:08.200 and by the Obama campaign team,

00:46:09.860 was people might see him

00:46:11.040 as out of touch

00:46:11.720 because of how much money he had,

00:46:12.960 especially in some

00:46:13.640 of the blue collar states

00:46:14.520 where he really needed to compete.

00:46:16.200 So the Obama campaign

00:46:17.460 very strategically

00:46:18.240 did everything they could

00:46:19.420 to further the argument

00:46:20.860 that he was so wealthy

00:46:21.880 that he was going to be

00:46:22.620 out of touch

00:46:23.220 with middle class Americans.

00:46:24.580 And he only won,

00:46:25.620 I believe it was one

00:46:26.380 out of nine battleground states.

00:46:28.320 So many people would argue

00:46:29.440 that that was a successful example

00:46:31.200 of reverse probability hacking.

00:46:33.080 Yeah, I went to law school.

00:46:33.920 I have a law background

00:46:34.760 and you'd see this sort of thing,

00:46:37.400 sort of,

00:46:37.620 it's basically gamemanship

00:46:38.640 is what you're doing.

00:46:39.620 Sure.

00:46:39.980 You see this in lawsuits,

00:46:41.100 you know,

00:46:41.780 when an opposing party

00:46:43.100 makes a discovery request,

00:46:44.860 well, instead of giving them

00:46:46.200 exactly what they wanted,

00:46:47.480 like you just dump

00:46:48.360 as much stuff on them

00:46:50.160 as possible.

00:46:51.080 So they got to spend money

00:46:52.580 and time sorting through

00:46:54.640 all this documentation.

00:46:56.400 And the goal was

00:46:57.820 just to muck things up

00:46:59.200 for them as much as possible.

00:47:01.160 And it sounds like

00:47:02.500 that's an example

00:47:03.120 of reverse probability hacking.

00:47:05.220 Yeah, I think it is.

00:47:05.720 A potential bad outcome

00:47:06.580 for those people

00:47:07.220 is missing a key insight

00:47:08.680 in the discovery process.

00:47:09.760 And you've increased

00:47:11.000 the odds of that happening.

00:47:12.100 Yeah.

00:47:12.600 How can you use

00:47:13.800 probability hacking

00:47:14.880 and success diagrams

00:47:15.980 to know when you should

00:47:17.260 quit a goal?

00:47:18.860 Yeah, so this is fairly intuitive.

00:47:20.240 But if you have a good sense

00:47:21.400 of what needs to go right

00:47:22.400 in order to accomplish your goal,

00:47:23.820 and you've been able

00:47:24.420 to make estimates

00:47:25.040 that you feel good about

00:47:26.100 when it comes to

00:47:27.020 each of these steps

00:47:28.320 that you're going to have

00:47:29.060 to accomplish.

00:47:30.080 And again,

00:47:30.480 the success diagram process

00:47:32.040 is designed to really

00:47:33.060 be a gut check for that.

00:47:34.460 This is a similar tool

00:47:35.480 to what leading forecasters

00:47:36.580 use to predict world events.

00:47:37.960 But forcing a person

00:47:39.060 to reckon with,

00:47:39.840 here's all the things

00:47:40.600 that are going to have to go right.

00:47:41.780 We're going to stop

00:47:42.440 and really consider

00:47:43.100 what those things are.

00:47:44.160 For each one of those things,

00:47:45.280 here's the potential bad outcomes

00:47:46.720 that could keep us

00:47:47.460 from getting what we want.

00:47:48.960 And the odds of all

00:47:49.760 of those potential bad outcomes,

00:47:51.500 plus the odd of the good outcome,

00:47:52.780 have to add up to 100%, right?

00:47:54.380 The good outcome

00:47:54.960 can only be what's left over

00:47:56.640 after we've accounted

00:47:57.660 for all the bad outcomes.

00:47:59.060 When you do that,

00:47:59.940 you get a more reliable understanding

00:48:01.400 of how likely you are

00:48:02.380 to accomplish a goal.

00:48:03.700 So then you try

00:48:04.260 to probability hack.

00:48:05.220 You try to creatively

00:48:05.960 and systematically

00:48:07.060 de-risk your goal.

00:48:08.300 You try to take out

00:48:09.000 those bad outcomes

00:48:09.840 as much as you can.

00:48:11.420 And if at the end of it,

00:48:12.280 you still don't like

00:48:13.020 your odds of success,

00:48:14.500 then you should really consider

00:48:16.160 potentially pivoting

00:48:16.980 to a different goal.

00:48:18.020 And that doesn't mean

00:48:18.900 that you're never going to be able

00:48:20.180 to accomplish that goal.

00:48:21.240 I think that's one of the biggest things

00:48:22.240 that I try to emphasize.

00:48:23.260 Well, there's two things.

00:48:24.060 One is, again,

00:48:24.780 a success diagram

00:48:25.460 is a path to a goal.

00:48:26.500 It's possible

00:48:27.200 that you can find another path

00:48:28.340 to the same goal.

00:48:29.200 Maybe you're not going to be able

00:48:30.020 to accomplish it with this plan,

00:48:31.560 but there might be

00:48:31.980 a totally different plan.

00:48:33.100 So before you waste

00:48:34.160 a lot of time and money

00:48:35.040 trying to do

00:48:35.860 what you've laid out,

00:48:36.920 see if there's a better way

00:48:37.680 to get that done.

00:48:38.500 But if you can't think of anything

00:48:39.940 and you ask for input,

00:48:41.360 one of the great things

00:48:42.080 about a success diagram

00:48:42.860 is it's visual.

00:48:44.020 So you can show it

00:48:44.600 to other people

00:48:45.140 and they can look at it

00:48:46.060 and they can give you feedback.

00:48:47.340 But if you can't find

00:48:48.180 a way to break through,

00:48:49.000 your odds still look bad,

00:48:50.520 then I would encourage you

00:48:51.280 to consider pursuing

00:48:52.160 a different goal.

00:48:53.200 But here's what

00:48:53.700 I would tell you to do.

00:48:54.600 And I think this is

00:48:55.140 so incredibly important.

00:48:56.200 Don't throw that diagram away.

00:48:57.940 That diagram is a blueprint

00:49:00.660 for what you're going to need

00:49:02.240 for your odds

00:49:02.860 to one day change.

00:49:04.100 I think about that

00:49:05.100 in the context of

00:49:06.280 ultimately getting

00:49:06.920 this book published.

00:49:07.700 That was a goal

00:49:08.400 that I had

00:49:08.840 since I was a child.

00:49:09.900 It's a weird memory,

00:49:11.040 but as I recall it,

00:49:12.540 I was leaving

00:49:13.260 my great-grandfather's funeral

00:49:14.940 when my mother asked me,

00:49:16.800 what do you want to do

00:49:17.200 when you grow up?

00:49:17.780 That's how I remember it.

00:49:18.580 I could be wrong.

00:49:19.560 But she said,

00:49:20.140 what do you want to do

00:49:20.500 when you grow up?

00:49:20.880 And I said,

00:49:21.100 I want to be a writer.

00:49:21.620 And I remember that,

00:49:22.740 I think I was like 11 at the time.

00:49:24.140 It was a long, long time ago

00:49:25.320 that this happened.

00:49:26.360 I'm in my mid-30s now.

00:49:28.540 So it took 25 years

00:49:31.280 for me to ultimately accomplish

00:49:32.800 the goal of writing a book,

00:49:34.580 but the goal never left.

00:49:35.820 I knew what I was going to need.

00:49:37.000 I was going to need an agent.

00:49:38.260 I was going to need

00:49:38.720 an audience of people

00:49:39.720 I could sell books to.

00:49:41.040 I was going to need a message.

00:49:42.360 I was going to need

00:49:43.020 some credentials,

00:49:44.320 like being a writer

00:49:45.020 for Harvard Business Review

00:49:46.060 and Forbes

00:49:46.580 and Fast Company

00:49:47.260 and Psychology Today.

00:49:48.100 Those are certainly things

00:49:48.980 that gave me credibility

00:49:50.220 in a publishing house's eyes.

00:49:51.620 And so because I knew that,

00:49:52.820 I was able to very leisurely

00:49:54.900 almost collect those advantages

00:49:56.580 over time

00:49:57.440 to bring this childhood dream to life.

00:49:59.560 So if it is time to quit a goal,

00:50:01.160 if the odds look bad,

00:50:02.640 don't think of it as quitting it.

00:50:03.900 Think of it as pausing it.

00:50:05.180 Keep that diagram around.

00:50:06.460 And as you live your life,

00:50:07.540 look for ways

00:50:08.200 to rack up advantages

00:50:09.680 in the same way

00:50:10.540 that maybe an underleveled character

00:50:12.100 in a video game

00:50:13.120 might go complete

00:50:14.280 some side quests

00:50:15.160 before they come back

00:50:15.960 to fight the really big boss.

00:50:17.700 You have an opportunity

00:50:18.600 to do that with your goals.

00:50:19.700 I love that.

00:50:20.560 One tip you mentioned,

00:50:21.660 this came from Annie Duke.

00:50:22.940 Yeah.

00:50:23.200 We had her on the podcast

00:50:23.980 a while back.

00:50:25.140 Instead of vaguely asking,

00:50:26.980 do I think this will happen or not?

00:50:29.100 Ask yourself,

00:50:30.140 would you bet on this?

00:50:31.620 And Annie says,

00:50:32.780 as soon as you start thinking

00:50:33.900 in terms of bets,

00:50:35.100 you're reminded

00:50:36.220 that each decision

00:50:37.460 has a risk

00:50:38.660 and it forces you

00:50:39.280 to think less vaguely.

00:50:40.520 It's like, okay,

00:50:41.280 you think this is going to happen.

00:50:43.120 Well, how sure are you?

00:50:44.920 I mean, would you bet on it?

00:50:46.300 And how much money

00:50:47.380 would you bet on it?

00:50:48.080 So it pushes you

00:50:49.140 to be a bit more honest

00:50:50.400 with your probabilities.

00:50:51.680 Yeah, absolutely.

00:50:52.780 As I recall,

00:50:53.800 the Annie Duke book

00:50:55.200 Thinking and Bets 0.98

00:50:56.080 includes a section

00:50:57.080 where she references a study

00:50:58.200 where a group of scientists

00:50:59.720 were asked to make predictions

00:51:01.040 on certain outcomes.

00:51:02.640 And then the next time

00:51:03.260 they were asked

00:51:03.720 to make predictions

00:51:04.340 with some hypothetical money.

00:51:06.160 They were supposed to place bets.

00:51:07.600 And I don't even think

00:51:08.020 it was real money.

00:51:08.740 I think it was hypothetical money.

00:51:10.140 But as I recall,

00:51:10.980 the study found

00:51:11.520 that they were more accurate

00:51:12.680 when they had

00:51:13.600 even this imaginary money

00:51:14.840 on the line.

00:51:15.960 Again, it's a gut check.

00:51:16.880 It forces you to stop

00:51:17.880 and really do business

00:51:18.820 with the things

00:51:19.900 that might go wrong.

00:51:21.180 If there was one thing

00:51:22.000 that people could start doing today

00:51:23.600 to start probability hacking,

00:51:25.640 what would it be?

00:51:26.680 Think negative.

00:51:27.660 Think negative.

00:51:28.360 Everybody's telling you

00:51:28.940 to think positive.

00:51:29.940 You know, I think about

00:51:30.440 like the Pixar movie

00:51:31.340 Inside Out 2.

00:51:32.260 There's the scene

00:51:32.800 where anxiety is sending up

00:51:34.780 all of these potential

00:51:35.620 bad outcomes.

00:51:36.980 And to some extent,

00:51:38.040 they're kind of dismissive of them.

00:51:39.580 It's like,

00:51:39.900 well, don't think like that.

00:51:41.620 No, I say do think like that.

00:51:42.600 But don't wallow in despair and fear.

00:51:45.660 Instead, just really practically

00:51:47.380 list out the things

00:51:48.760 that could go wrong

00:51:49.380 and do everything you can

00:51:50.300 to make those less likely.

00:51:51.680 I don't think that it's a problem

00:51:53.240 to stop and really visualize

00:51:54.980 the risks associated

00:51:56.860 with our goals

00:51:57.740 unless we're just going to,

00:51:59.960 you know,

00:52:00.300 let that cause us

00:52:01.380 to give in to discouragement.

00:52:02.360 It doesn't need to.

00:52:03.260 We have an opportunity

00:52:04.060 to respond proactively.

00:52:06.060 So when you think negatively,

00:52:07.420 when you recognize

00:52:08.260 that sort of like how matter,

00:52:10.400 you know,

00:52:10.580 it cannot be created or destroyed

00:52:12.080 as we've traditionally understood it.

00:52:13.760 Your odds of success,

00:52:15.120 you can't add to your odds of success.

00:52:16.560 You have to go take those odds

00:52:18.540 from your potential bad outcomes.

00:52:20.180 And when you do that consistently

00:52:21.920 in the context of one goal,

00:52:23.660 it can change your outcome.

00:52:24.840 Over the context of several goals,

00:52:26.460 it can change your career.

00:52:27.900 And over the context

00:52:28.460 of a lifetime of goals,

00:52:29.440 it can even change your legacy.

00:52:31.280 Well, Kyle,

00:52:31.460 it's been a great conversation.

00:52:32.500 Where can people go

00:52:33.060 to learn more about the book

00:52:33.960 and your work?

00:52:34.760 Sure, you can find the book,

00:52:35.820 you know,

00:52:36.160 anywhere books are sold.

00:52:37.020 You can find it on Amazon,

00:52:37.860 find it on Barnes & Noble.

00:52:38.940 You can find it

00:52:39.640 on the Penguin Random House website.

00:52:41.320 You are more than welcome

00:52:42.480 to come to my website,

00:52:43.820 kyleaustinyoung.com.

00:52:45.260 That's a place

00:52:45.680 where we can route you out

00:52:46.800 to a lot of those retailers.

00:52:48.340 If you want to connect with me,

00:52:49.100 please also consider

00:52:49.980 reaching out on LinkedIn,

00:52:51.200 Kyle Austin Young.

00:52:52.160 Fantastic.

00:52:52.600 Well, Kyle Young,

00:52:52.980 thanks for your time.

00:52:53.320 It's been a pleasure.

00:52:54.040 Thank you.

00:52:54.520 Enjoyed it.

00:52:56.020 My guest,

00:52:56.500 it was Kyle Austin Young.

00:52:57.600 He's the author of the book,

00:52:58.700 Success is a Numbers Game.

00:53:00.020 It's available on amazon.com.

00:53:01.700 You can learn more information

00:53:02.540 about his work

00:53:02.960 at his website,

00:53:03.720 kyleaustinyoung.com.

00:53:05.360 Also check out our show notes

00:53:06.320 at aom.is

00:53:07.220 slash probability hacking

00:53:08.440 where you find links

00:53:09.140 to resources

00:53:09.720 where you delve deeper

00:53:10.380 into this topic.

00:53:10.960 Well, that wraps up

00:53:19.900 another edition

00:53:20.540 of the AOM podcast.

00:53:21.640 Make sure to check out

00:53:22.220 our website

00:53:22.600 at artofmanliness.com

00:53:23.680 where you find our podcast archives.

00:53:25.400 And while you're there,

00:53:26.100 sign up for our

00:53:26.640 Art of Manliness newsletter.

00:53:27.960 We've got two options.

00:53:28.960 It's a daily

00:53:29.440 and a weekly digest.

00:53:30.820 They're both free.

00:53:31.860 It's the best way

00:53:32.560 to stay on top

00:53:33.020 of what's going on at AOM.

00:53:34.660 And if you've done this already,

00:53:35.760 I'd appreciate it

00:53:36.420 if you take one minute

00:53:37.060 to give you another podcast

00:53:38.060 or Spotify.

00:53:38.740 It helps out a lot.

00:53:39.540 And if you've done that already,

00:53:40.440 thank you.

00:53:41.200 Please consider sharing the show

00:53:42.260 with a friend or fan member

00:53:43.120 who would think

00:53:43.600 of something out of it.

00:53:44.700 As always,

00:53:45.500 thank you for the continued support.

00:53:46.480 Until next time,

00:53:46.920 it's Brett McKay.

00:53:47.920 Remind us on the AOM podcast

00:53:49.200 to put what you've heard

00:53:50.400 into action.

00:54:08.560 Before you go,

00:54:09.540 here's another one

00:54:10.140 to queue up next.

00:54:10.920 I talked to Ben Aldridge

00:54:12.140 about his book,

00:54:12.940 Seriously Happy,

00:54:13.660 where he takes the big ideas

00:54:14.760 from ancient philosophies

00:54:15.660 like Buddhism,

00:54:16.880 cynicism,

00:54:17.560 stoicism,

00:54:18.080 and turns them

00:54:19.180 into real,

00:54:20.240 doable challenges

00:54:20.960 for becoming a better,

00:54:22.320 happier person.

00:54:23.660 We get into everything

00:54:24.380 from cultivating virtue

00:54:25.320 to walking a banana

00:54:26.380 and taking a wu-wei adventure.

00:54:28.400 It's fun,

00:54:29.380 practical,

00:54:30.020 and surprisingly deep.

00:54:31.440 You can check it out

00:54:32.120 at aom.is

00:54:33.440 slash seriously happy.

00:54:35.280 Again,

00:54:35.560 that's awim.is

00:54:36.800 slash seriously happy.

00:54:38.000 Thank you.

The Art of Manliness - December 30, 2025

How to Use Probability Hacking to Achieve Your Goals

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript