The Auron MacIntyre Show - Amnesty Betrayal and the World's Shortest Ceasefire ｜ Guest： Ronald Dodson ｜ 4⧸8⧸26

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00:00:30.640 Hey everybody, how's it going? Thanks for joining me this afternoon. I've got a great stream with a great guest that I think you're really going to enjoy.

00:00:37.880 Is there peace in the Middle East? Maybe, maybe not. It's kind of Schrodinger's peace right now.

00:00:43.660 We'll break down why it seems almost impossible to maintain an outcome that really I think everyone was hoping for.

00:00:50.880 Also, the GOP, surprise surprise, decides to try to sneak some amnesty in while we were all hoping for mass deportations.

00:00:58.440 Joining me to discuss this is friend of the show and frequent writer with the Claremont Institute, Ronald Dodson.

00:01:04.520 Thank you so much for coming on, man.

00:01:06.380 It's my pleasure. I think it's my pleasure. We'll see.

00:01:10.060 It's been a day. We'll just say we had already planned this.

00:01:14.740 Ron had written a great piece for the American mind on the Iran war.

00:01:18.880 And I'm sure we'll still touch on some of the points from that piece.

00:01:21.740 but obviously so much has developed in the last 18 or so hours that we're obviously going to be

00:01:27.680 addressing all of the radical stuff that has occurred. So if you are not aware, Donald Trump

00:01:33.720 had tweeted out a rather aggressive tweet. A lot of people were kind of spinning out. Now,

00:01:40.040 I've warned people many times that you should not become a hysterical woman when it comes to

00:01:45.280 Donald Trump's language. This is a guy who has always been bombastic. He has always been someone

00:01:50.020 who has done the art of the deal thing ran out there made the biggest threat made the biggest

00:01:54.480 promise made the biggest push and then dialed it back this is classic trump 101 that said you know

00:02:00.460 it's a little different when you're doing the culture war as opposed to a real war you know

00:02:04.460 in an actual hot war people are dying people are taking fire people's lives are on the line

00:02:09.720 and so that negotiating tactic it's a little more tenuous for a lot of people they put even more

00:02:16.040 emotion into it. And I think some people jump the gun with Trump. You know, he's going to nuke

00:02:21.560 Iran. He's going to take everybody out. He's going to obliterate everyone. But the question was,

00:02:26.920 was he going to follow through? Because he said at 8 p.m. last night, we were going to see a

00:02:32.440 spectacular attack on Iranian infrastructure. It was going to be power plants and bridges and all

00:02:38.120 kinds of things. And he said, if we didn't see that, you know, some kind of deal would happen

00:02:43.220 by 8 p.m. It could be the destruction of the civilization. Then around 8 p.m. we got the

00:02:48.900 message that actually there's been talks with the Iranian leader. We're going to be able to

00:02:54.860 work something out. We're considering a peace plan. Now, that immediately had a lot of reactions

00:03:01.600 all over the place. And we'll get to the neocons losing their mind. The Israelis are not happy at

00:03:07.120 all, which is not surprising. But Ron, what was your initial response to the announcement of the

00:03:14.660 deal? Did you think that a deal was going to happen before the deadline? Did you expect him

00:03:19.400 to kind of ground it in the 10 points that Iran had already laid out previously?

00:03:26.840 I really didn't know. I do know I've heard rumors that Trump's kind of bored with the whole thing.

00:03:34.000 And I know, and it's kind of insane that we're using that framing, but, uh, uh, this is for all

00:03:42.100 his strengths. And I've voted for, for the Don three times happily would vote for him again with

00:03:49.840 the, uh, uh, with the typical, uh, competitors that he would face. Uh, but, um, but he is not

00:03:58.200 a man of a tremendous attention span length. So, you know, he's famously done away with his

00:04:07.280 morning intel briefings, for instance. And so with that in mind, I did think, well, maybe he's just

00:04:14.600 gonna, you know, I didn't, for it to come at the hands of the Pakistanis, who are, as most would

00:04:23.580 think are in the back pockets of the Chinese, that tends to denigrate any 5D chess argument

00:04:31.720 that some might make. And boy, they are on Twitter left and right. Oh, this is how this is

00:04:40.100 going to result in all these moves behind the scenes. And I just don't buy it. Hey, I'm pro-American.

00:04:47.560 I hope that's the case in the long term. I'm for controlling our near abroad and having a

00:04:54.140 tangential relationship with our far abroad. And the key part of that is supporting the U.S.

00:05:00.720 dollar so that we can put some of this deficit and debt away from us causing inflation, but

00:05:08.140 otherwise kind of leaving the rest of the world alone. But anyway, the fact that it came out of

00:05:14.760 this when it did, it surprised me a little bit. And then, you know, you got the typical market

00:05:21.420 reaction, which has been a roller coaster lately. So Trump said, OK, we're willing to take to use

00:05:31.160 these points, these 10 points that Iran had already laid out. And look at these points.

00:05:37.000 Here are the 10 points. A non-aggression the U.S. must fundamentally commit to guaranteeing

00:05:43.020 a non-aggression pact, a continuation of Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz. So continuing

00:05:49.000 to allow Iran to control the Strait in a way it did not have before we began, accepting that Iran

00:05:55.540 can enrich uranium for its program, removal of all primary sanctions on Iran, removal of all

00:06:01.480 secondary sanctions against foreign entities that do business with Iran, end of all United Nations

00:06:07.100 Security Council resolutions against Iran, end of all International Atomic Energy Agency

00:06:12.200 resolutions against iran's nuke program compensation payment for iran for war damages

00:06:17.900 withdrawal of u.s combat forces from the region and a ceasefire on all fronts including israel's

00:06:24.860 conflict with hezbollah in lebanon now ron uh that is a laundry list of things that i'm pretty sure

00:06:33.140 no one wanted uh for iran before this certainly nothing it's a win it's a win

00:06:40.060 the plan has been trusted guys don't yeah look well like let yeah let's talk let's talk about

00:06:46.980 them just uh not exhaustively but the non-aggression pact if if that means hey look

00:06:54.980 we're going to try to play nice in the sandbox together the problem is is Israel going to sign

00:06:59.800 off on this and that that that is something I want to talk about a little bit later and I'm

00:07:05.420 you know i uh anyway so let's table that for a second but straight control i actually see this

00:07:12.660 as good and and the reason is is that you want one actor to deal with in the straight

00:07:20.920 it would best be a some kind of uh some type of committee or whatever but the fact what you what

00:07:31.520 if we'd followed Israel's plan, which was clearly to turn Iran into Syria, and it was

00:07:39.960 balkanized, and you had five different groups with veto power, that would have been an even

00:07:45.520 worse disaster. And again, putting aside the 5D chess, hey, we want to take this choke point out

00:07:52.000 of place so that the U.S., the North American and Central American oil output is the greatest

00:07:59.960 output in the world and we control, you know, I just don't buy that 5D chess stuff. Um, but, uh,

00:08:06.380 enrichment, um, the, so I guess the idea is that, that is, is on our side because Trump since has

00:08:17.220 come out and said, uh, there's going to be no enrichment. Now they want enrich, the enrichment.

00:08:22.780 And again, I just did a, I did an hour and a half on this. If you want to watch with Jay Burden

00:08:27.700 on how enrichment does not equal nuclear weapons. It's a huge leap. And they've always wanted

00:08:35.660 enrichment, number one, so that they can, there are some legitimate uses for that. There's medical

00:08:42.220 and then there's also their own power plants. But they want enrichment as a king's ex in case

00:08:50.500 somebody starts getting uppity with them. And I don't know how, I think that's the killer to this

00:08:57.180 deal is they're going to want some kind of enrichment unless we do agree to this next

00:09:03.100 point, which is no sanctions. Okay. I would actually be okay with that. I want a strong

00:09:10.640 Iran that isn't, hold on. I want a strong Iran that is incentivized not to be dangerous. Right

00:09:17.720 now they're, they're dangerous and completely sanctioned and kind of weak, except for this

00:09:22.980 ability to lob missiles. But I don't see, you know, I'd be shocked if they can get past those

00:09:31.000 two items. And then the rest of it, you know, there's got to be an IAEA regime that controls

00:09:38.800 it. Otherwise, you can't say no sanctions and you get enrichment, which is where this is going.

00:09:43.780 But the enrichment can't go past a certain point, usually 20% for medical and fuel.

00:09:48.940 you've got to have some an inspection regime for that and they're saying they don't want any

00:09:54.060 so this there there's some there's some logical barriers to this any of this holding and then

00:10:00.520 withdrawal from the area well does our base get rebuilt in Bahrain I can't imagine the Gulf

00:10:08.940 Coalition being like yeah this was all fine this was great come back and rebuild your uh

00:10:16.580 your fleet base here. We're great with that. If that were to happen, it would be at a 5x

00:10:26.000 payoff cost to Bahrain as a make good. And that was a multi, multi-billion dollar base. So

00:10:33.580 that's kind of my thoughts on this, on these 10 points. You know, I'm glad for the ceasefire

00:10:40.280 because maybe some cooler heads will prevail and we'll see that kind of the insanity of this whole

00:10:46.140 thing. But, uh, but as written, it seems pretty non-starter. I don't know. What do you, what do

00:10:52.440 you think? No, I mean, I'd agree. It's very clear that Trump was, was really looking for an off-ramp.

00:10:58.940 I think that that much is obvious. Like Trump wanted out. He was not, you know, given the easy

00:11:04.980 victory he was promised. This is not Venezuela. Uh, it was very clear that he was warned repeatedly

00:11:10.780 about that. We'll, we'll get into it in a second, but it's yeah. Who was doing that promising?

00:11:14.800 right yeah exactly well we'll certainly talk about that have no have no doubt uh but ultimately he

00:11:21.420 recognized that he was simply not given the war that he wanted uh you know there were there were

00:11:25.980 pilots down we had to do rescue missions uh the strait was closed uh the the regime was not

00:11:31.700 replaced there's just another ayatollah uh you know in the family line you know back in power

00:11:37.160 and he recognized that his rhetorical style had kind of taken him to the edge of where he could

00:11:42.540 go and it was just whenever he could get out there and we know this because uh the message

00:11:49.160 of course he responded to as you pointed out was from the pakistani prime minister shrif

00:11:53.440 now the interesting thing is if you look at the edit history of the tweet where this was posted

00:12:00.760 and guys if you ever tell me that twitter's not real life remember peace deals are announced

00:12:06.400 on twitter so i think we can just get over this right uh but also uh if you look at the edit

00:12:12.940 history of the tweet that was placed on sharif's account it shows that originally there was a

00:12:20.880 manuscript that was basically copy and pasted that said have the have the president or have

00:12:27.300 the prime minister of pakistan say this and they just left that in the original tweet so literally

00:12:34.120 someone sent pakistan verbatim what they were supposed to post on the prime minister's twitter

00:12:40.840 account and then they're so dumb they just copy and pasted it like it's like a teleprompter joke

00:12:47.960 from anchorman ron like he'll just read whatever's on the teleprompter like they did that and they

00:12:54.260 had to go back and delete it because obviously pakistan didn't write this and so then the

00:12:58.720 question becomes who did was it handed to them by the americans did trump basically say i need a

00:13:05.260 way out of this go post this so i can agree to it but act like i didn't or and this one is even

00:13:11.680 more concerning as you say these guys are often tools of the chinese did the chinese tell the

00:13:18.320 pakistanis to do this was the peace brokered on behalf of china because my friend uh you know

00:13:25.620 academic agent uh neiman parvini has said that this was the american suez crisis and i said

00:13:31.720 no that's not right because the difference here is that in the suez crisis you the uk could not

00:13:38.100 get it done they become too weak they did not have the heft anymore and they needed the new

00:13:42.760 emergent power to come in and settle the conflict for them and i said well is china going to come in

00:13:48.780 and settle this conflict for the united states tell both parties to sit down and shut up and do

00:13:53.020 what they need to do to make peace i really doubt that but i don't know ron like did we just see the

00:13:58.920 american suez did the chinese just tell america and and and iran sit down shut up be adults and

00:14:05.280 get to this table because we're in charge now yeah i mean i think that's what's to be taken away

00:14:10.880 is and uh i don't think that there's

00:14:15.460 be careful because i am american i'm loyal i i do want the success of this administration and

00:14:24.360 what's best for our country that being said that seems that seems the occam's razor analysis of

00:14:32.240 this right uh because that's not an american that's not an american list of you know the u.s

00:14:40.580 State Department isn't listing this out. Putting that out. Yeah. No. Right. Um, now you've got to

00:14:47.960 give to get, and that was the insane, that's what bothered me about the whole, when we started this

00:14:53.980 deal was unconditional surrender and you bet, you know, all this crazy stuff. The whole point of any

00:15:01.580 of this is, is to, is to your sparring partner to give them a way out that where they can either

00:15:09.260 save face or get some of what they want. The point is you're trying to move from the status quo

00:15:13.900 to something better. And it seemed like our position was, well, we just want to go

00:15:19.940 kill people and break stuff. And whatever happens, happens. Well, we got, here's what's happening.

00:15:26.680 And it sure looks like we've upped with all the talk of, ah, we're really killing the Chinese

00:15:33.780 on this because they don't have access to oil and blah, blah, blah. Sure looks like the Chinese

00:15:38.260 said rolled up their sleeves and said uh let us exert a little geopolitical uh power here

00:15:44.420 well because a lot of the assets being lost in iran were chinese right like belt and road

00:15:50.160 initiative stuff and so they had a vested interest in making sure that that destruction didn't

00:15:54.980 continue and that's a very concerning situation if that is indeed the case that that you know they

00:16:01.300 were the ones that ultimately decided when this thing was going to be over now again uh this is

00:16:07.620 very tenuous uh first as you say i doubt many of these things are ultimately going to be uh resolved

00:16:14.040 during the peace negotiations i don't think iran's going to get anywhere near those 10 things but the

00:16:19.720 fact that donald trump who had previously called for unconditional surrender would agree to even

00:16:23.740 have a discussion on all tens of those points and make that the basis of those points really shows

00:16:28.680 you how desperately he wanted out of this situation i don't think man trump is the kind of guy who

00:16:33.880 takes it on the chin if in public, if he doesn't have to. And look, I want to, I want to say this

00:16:39.420 because I know this has been a huge dividing line on the right. I know there's a lot of

00:16:43.880 plan trusters out there and the, the, the line on this is going to be, oh, well, Trump, you know,

00:16:50.420 had the plan all along and this was Trump's plan. And look, we won, you know, it's over.

00:16:55.640 We didn't have to go in and do the ground forces. We didn't, you know, have to do all this stuff.

00:17:00.300 And guys, I'm not going to hold you account on this. I really not. I'm not I'm not out here doing exact a price. I want unity. I want to go back. But internally, this is just for us. Like, we need to be honest with ourselves what happened here. This cost us dearly. Like this cost us dearly. This is a disaster on every level. Trump was not in control of this war.

00:17:22.320 it's very clear that international influence played a massive uh factor on every level from

00:17:28.400 the beginning of this to the end of this iran is going to get a bunch of stuff it never ever ever

00:17:33.840 could have imagined having before this war and you have to break yourself out of this mentality

00:17:38.780 that people are using right now afghanistan vietnam oh look we're killing so many of their

00:17:45.320 guys we're blowing up so much of their stuff disproportionate destruction means we're winning

00:17:50.240 the war yes it's true that america thank you thank you robert mcnamara like we killed yeah

00:17:56.400 we killed way more people in vietnam than they killed of ours we killed way more people in

00:18:00.200 afghanistan than they did of ours and we lost both those conflicts yes we crushed the iranians when

00:18:05.860 it comes to body counts uh destruction of ships real material absolutely 100 but diplomatically

00:18:12.920 politically what does it cost you that's the real question that's what we didn't learn afghanistan

00:18:18.480 That's what we didn't learn, learn in Vietnam. And if you guys keep selling this idea that it's all about body counts, that's what we won't learn from Iran either. So again, I'm not here to shame anybody. I get why people back Donald Trump through all of this. I still want the Trump administration to win through all of this. That's why I've been so concerned about this war.

00:18:37.940 But we have to have a realistic understanding of what happened here.

00:18:42.440 And publicly facing, yeah, okay, Trump, declare victory, walk away, fantastic, peace, let's get back to the domestic stuff.

00:18:50.080 But internally, if you're turning to me and saying, oh, well, we just got everything we wanted and Trump is a 5D genius, okay, man, then you completely drank the Kool-Aid and I don't know what to do at this point.

00:19:02.940 Some say the bubbles in an Aero truffle piece can take 34 seconds to melt in your mouth.

00:19:07.420 sometimes the very amount you're stuck at the same red light rich creamy chocolatey arrow truffle

00:19:13.980 feel the arrow bubbles melt it's mind bubbling i think and the point i made in my piece for

00:19:21.880 claremont was that i think uh and and and i used to have uh we used to have similar we had a

00:19:30.100 the same lending team with lehman brothers way back in the day on real estate my family business

00:19:35.840 was in a multifamily while he was doing the casinos and hotels and stuff. And Trump has

00:19:43.100 always been one who is incredibly talented, maybe one of the best that's ever done it in

00:19:49.120 managing chaos. And if you know personalities like that, be it in sports or in business,

00:20:01.440 these are guys who want there to be chaos so that they feel like they've got the edge.

00:20:08.780 So in football, for instance, this is your defensive coordinator who's blitzing on every

00:20:14.060 play. This is your offensive coordinator who's throwing halfback options and so on and so forth.

00:20:22.380 And I made the point that I think Trump at times gets to a point where he's just bored

00:20:29.860 with the status quo. He wants to inject chaos because he knows he's going to out, that's his

00:20:38.600 edge where he's going to outperform. And part of getting older gracefully is realizing that edge

00:20:48.460 decreases over time. It just does. I'm not as, you know, I'm 59 and I'm not as quick as I was

00:20:56.720 when I was 35. I'm hopefully wiser. I'm hopefully more prudent, but I don't have the reflexes that

00:21:03.640 I did 30 years ago, so to speak. So I think there's an aspect of Trump's personality where

00:21:10.980 he's just going to crave the bedlam that he has the power to create at a moment's notice.

00:21:22.700 what has to tamper that and what has at times is the institutional advisor environment

00:21:34.900 that being the president allows him to have. So who are the ones who are around him who are

00:21:42.180 most competent? Now, we as being on the right might not agree with all the life choices,

00:21:50.720 but scott besant is very very competent and when when trump has listened to scott he's generally

00:21:59.680 muted some of that desire for chaos and we all wish that or at least i do uh wish that besant's

00:22:06.880 plan as opposed to lutnik's plan had been followed when it comes to the tariffs that would have been

00:22:12.080 much better uh and again uh uh there are certain other players in his in his cabinet that that

00:22:20.160 exude competence and a little bit of sanity and it seems to me as though all that was tossed out

00:22:28.640 the window in the decision making process to go to into this in the first place uh that uh and

00:22:36.240 that's what, that's what bothers me. Um, that's what, sorry, I had to cease a, uh, kill a, an

00:22:45.840 alert here. Um, that's what bothers me the most about this is he had advisors, you know, there's

00:22:56.280 problems with CIA, there's problems with the joint chiefs at times, but they were all saying one

00:23:02.720 thing and then bb and you know the grand poobah of the massad walk walk into the situation room

00:23:10.800 and no let's do what they say that is um that's problematic to me uh that's very problematic to me

00:23:20.080 and it's not because it's israel look it could have been great britain has been in this situation

00:23:26.240 before ukraine has been in this situation before the ussr back in world war ii has been in this

00:23:32.800 situation and now israel this isn't endemic to just israel this is anytime we give we cede

00:23:41.360 sovereignty to uh i'm going to sound like george washington here anytime we cede sovereignty to

00:23:46.800 one of these alliances that distracts us from the national interest and that's what just trump ran

00:23:54.560 on the national interest and that's what bugs me the most about this yeah i'm gonna stop hedging

00:24:01.940 when it comes to israeli influence to be honest because people are so unhinged about this like i

00:24:09.080 get it there are some people who just hate jewish people and you know they say all kinds of insane

00:24:13.580 stuff and i get it like i don't like it i don't think you should have ethnic hatred in your heart

00:24:17.800 whatever we've all talked about this endlessly but i am angry when china has influence over my

00:24:24.900 country i'm angry when ukraine has influence over my country when the uk labor government sent people

00:24:30.200 to manipulate our elections and run against donald trump i flipped out about that too

00:24:34.840 and i didn't hear any single person yell at me about being anti-ukraine well some people called

00:24:40.600 me pro-russian but no one no one got angry about me talking about ukrainian influence no one got

00:24:45.300 angry about me talking about Chinese influence. No one gets angry about me talking about Qatari

00:24:50.520 influence or any of these other countries, UK influence, all of it. But when I talk about the

00:24:56.080 obvious and deleterious influence of Israel on this country, all of a sudden, even though no

00:25:02.780 one cared about those other countries and I wasn't hateful or insane or anti-whatever Ukrainian or

00:25:08.780 Chinese, I wasn't a bigot who was calling for a Holocaust and those people beforehand. The minute

00:25:13.320 I mentioned that Israel also is in this category of people I don't want having influence over my

00:25:19.060 country all of a sudden it's a huge issue and I'm done with it I don't care I don't care Israel has

00:25:25.160 way too much influence on my country and I am done pretending otherwise I don't want China to have

00:25:29.480 influence I led with China saying I don't want them to have an influence that's a problem so why

00:25:34.420 does it matter when we suddenly say the very same thing about Israel now as you're alluding to here

00:25:39.760 we recently got a new york times article and i know new york times new york times right not

00:25:45.100 everything's going to be accurate however in that new york times article we got a picture

00:25:50.300 of pretty much exactly what joe kent warned us about when he stepped out of his position right

00:25:57.080 he said trump is surrounded by israeli intelligence assets and neocon media personalities and they are

00:26:05.260 driving the decision making and the people in the room who are against what's going on here

00:26:09.580 do not have a voice and that's pretty much what we got from that new york times story it said jd

00:26:16.080 vance is like the number one guy saying we shouldn't do this this is a bad idea counseling

00:26:21.060 against this the president received pushback from everybody he got pushback from whitkoff he got

00:26:26.020 pushback uh from suzy wiles he got pushback from the you know the head of the joint chiefs of staff

00:26:32.420 kane he got pushback from basically everyone except bb netanyahu the head of the massad

00:26:38.220 and Mark Levin and I get it people tell me oh Trump is his own man Trump is his own man

00:26:43.340 no as you pointed out Ron actually we've watched Trump put people like Anthony Fauci in charge of

00:26:49.840 the country when he has bad advisors around him when he has John Bolton's when he has Anthony

00:26:54.760 Fauci's he listens to them now it's a good thing as you say with Trump's personality that he is

00:26:59.780 listening to advisors but then it really matters what advisors are around him and so exactly and

00:27:05.620 so when we get this picture of oh well all the anti-war voices were pushed out of the room no

00:27:12.080 tulsi gabbards no joe kentz you know all these other guys getting uh you know basically silenced

00:27:17.260 or pushed aside so that we can hear from a for from a foreign intelligence leader a foreign

00:27:23.100 prime minister and talk radio hosts and that's where we got in this war that is a huge problem

00:27:31.100 OK, that is a massive problem. And it's very clear that these guys walked Trump into a war under false pretenses.

00:27:39.600 They knew it was not going to go the way that they wanted.

00:27:42.480 They even apparently put together a highlight reel of all the possible, you know, Iranian leaders who are going to rise up and and help do the regime change.

00:27:51.260 And once again, you know, welcome us as liberators. And none of that happened.

00:27:56.300 And all of a sudden, Trump was sitting there holding the bag just like Israel wanted him to do.

00:28:01.100 and I think he got sick of it and he said okay obviously this isn't working I've sacrificed

00:28:07.040 enough of this and I'm done I mean does that feel like a similar read for you yeah and I'm glad you

00:28:13.980 mentioned Susie because many of us on the right you know we were concerned when Susie and Chris

00:28:18.900 Lasaveta back in the campaign we were concerned a little bit about that and I'll just I'll admit

00:28:25.620 you know Susie's dad my dad were best friends so I go you know I haven't spent a lot of time

00:28:30.460 around Susie and she's a charming person and all that. I don't think she's doing anything that she

00:28:36.040 thinks is wrong, but it was problematic for those of us on the right. She has a reputation of being

00:28:42.380 an opportunist lobbyist and has, by all reports, been pretty strong at gatekeeping Trump from the

00:28:51.460 very influence that we have desired throughout this presidency. That being said, Susie and Susie

00:28:59.000 has a strong relationship with bb netanyahu she ran his last uh or or was instrumental in his last

00:29:05.400 campaign all that being said susie has a has an even stronger relationship with winning and what

00:29:13.160 i mean by that is is she you know for all the criticism uh that gal can keep the trains running

00:29:20.520 on time and she does want to win and i think she finally was whereas whereas trump has been

00:29:27.080 probably a little bit, more than a little bit sequestered from the broader reality of what

00:29:34.800 has been going on. That is not, I think Susie was waking up to the reality. I personally would not

00:29:42.720 be surprised if all of this, if she was the main leaker on this. I don't have support of that.

00:29:52.360 I'm saying that it would make sense. It would be, I think, a good move if she did, because

00:29:58.960 this is bringing to bear some stuff that needs to be brought out in the open to bring balance to

00:30:05.180 this most trusted allegiance, this relationship. But I think she just, I think between her and

00:30:13.680 Marco, and she's very tight. First of all, getting rid of Bondi was a bit of a peace

00:30:22.000 offering because bondi was part of that whole florida cabal that susie brought uh and and and

00:30:28.080 you know that's marco's home too and she's very tight with marco i think that there was just hey

00:30:33.280 we're going we are cutting our own throat continuing to go down this path so again i don't

00:30:39.440 know that she was like it wouldn't surprise me that she was but uh but she's definitely changed

00:30:45.840 her tune on this and then going back to something you mentioned you know we're now going to enter

00:30:50.880 into this time of negotiation can i please know who the negotiators are going to be and if it's

00:30:55.840 going to be whitkoff and jared can we please get rid of whitkoff and jared and and and god you know

00:31:03.600 whitkoff actually has done some decent things but he doesn't need to be these are both obvious

00:31:09.920 zionist jewish guys and and you know that doesn't mean they don't love the country and all that but

00:31:15.440 but they don't have a lot of objectivity on this can we get another can we get somebody else

00:31:20.800 can we get somebody who's been confirmed or who's in an actual state department position

00:31:25.920 or somebody with some actual some actual experience in this uh to to go and handle

00:31:31.600 these negotiations uh please because i just don't i'm kind of done with those two guys

00:31:38.080 so from what i've seen the breaking news is that kushner and whitkoff will be accompanied by

00:31:44.720 vance for oh well so that's yeah that's at least a move in the right and for all of you guys

00:31:51.520 for all the you young guys who have questions about vance and i keep hearing all the stuff about

00:31:56.320 teal and blah blah blah i mean here here's what i want you to understand is for for an old guy

00:32:03.680 who's been around all this stuff for a long long time you've got jd vance who yes has has somewhat

00:32:11.040 not near as strong a relationship as you all make it out to be but a relationship

00:32:15.360 with Peter Thiel uh and do you want somebody who has had a relationship with a successful

00:32:24.960 right wing to the level of right wing we can argue but a successful right wing guy who has

00:32:32.000 some questionable personal issues admittedly um who thinks about these things who writes about

00:32:38.240 these things who who gives talks about these things or somebody else who just hitched their

00:32:44.720 wagon to the neocon uh uh wagon train uh uh to to advance you know i i think there's there's

00:32:54.080 there's some depth there and i want you to to to at least you know it takes money in this world

00:33:02.000 to win in mass democracy it just does so you can either uh find it from your neocon friends or you

00:33:08.960 can find it from tech bros or you can go knock on doors um let me tell you the what in order of

00:33:16.960 success in those three knocking on doors is the hardest so you know i say that as an aside i i jd

00:33:24.160 who I have met and been around, I'm not close with him, but I have been impressed. He strikes

00:33:33.860 me a lot like, I'll tell you who he reminds me of. He reminds me a little bit of a younger

00:33:41.740 Eric Prince. That's how he strikes me. And you can do a lot worse than Eric Prince.

00:33:49.400 so yeah I mean again I understand that the you know the desire is to see everyone as one thing

00:33:58.520 right but this is the mistake that people make with the left they sound as monolithic it's one

00:34:02.720 force it's one ideology it's one influence it's one belief but we quickly find that actually when

00:34:07.860 you put stress on that and it starts to fracture there are particular fault lines that reveal the

00:34:12.140 actual structure of the left it's actually far more diverse than you understand and I get that

00:34:17.660 looking at the Trump administration, it would be easy to say, oh, well, everyone in the Trump

00:34:21.740 administration has the same opinion. But obviously, from just the actions of Joe Kent, that can't

00:34:27.200 possibly be true, right? Look at Joe Kent and Dan Bongino. Both guys leave the administration at

00:34:32.420 roughly the same time. Very different directions, right? Very different orientations as soon as

00:34:38.760 they leave the administration. So obviously, there's no unified opinion inside the administration

00:34:43.260 either or we not would not have seen that immediate split after these two guys both left

00:34:48.000 if you think that that split exists by people who left then you should surely understand it also

00:34:52.560 exists inside the administration that doesn't mean you need to give the administration a blank check

00:34:57.520 obviously as both of us being very skeptical of the iranian conflict while rooting for the united

00:35:03.200 states ultimately we did not give the administration a blank check we said we still support it but

00:35:07.600 ultimately this is very concerning you can do that and believe that they're ultimately people

00:35:12.140 who have the best interests in the united states in you know the administration while ultimately

00:35:16.500 understanding that doesn't mean that there aren't also bad influences that ultimately need to be

00:35:21.380 rooted out now to the ceasefire itself right as soon as it was announced it was basically broken

00:35:27.800 right like it was a sprint and it wasn't just a sprint to get as many rounds in before the

00:35:33.120 technical ceasefire took place it was immediately like just a full-on attack from israel and iran

00:35:40.300 and iran was hitting i think even saudi arabia and other places as well uh the fire exchanges

00:35:46.140 basically have not stopped uh iran has closed down the strait again after more israeli strikes

00:35:52.180 and so you know joe kent said when he left the administration the biggest

00:35:56.800 block to peace would be controlling israel i think given all the information we know about

00:36:02.200 how this war started and the influences involved that is still clearly true right and so the

00:36:07.520 question is trump wants peace i think at this point he wants the off-ramp but can he sustain

00:36:13.740 it it's very clear that the ceasefire has already been violated multiple times pakistan has you know

00:36:19.400 asked people to please abide by the ceasefire with all of its diplomatic weight um and so it's

00:36:25.600 very clear that maintaining this ceasefire is going to be the real trick what is your hope that

00:36:31.860 ultimately this is going to happen because it's been very clear from israel that they want to

00:36:36.160 continue at minimum the war in lebanon which the trump administration has said okay that's not part

00:36:41.660 of the ceasefire deal and iran says absolutely has to be part of the ceasefire yes so what what

00:36:46.680 do we think this is actually going to spin out into i don't know i really i really appreciated

00:36:52.200 uh it was written tongue in cheek but i appreciated our buddy daryl with his tweet saying uh hey look

00:37:01.040 we've the Iranian we and the Iranians have kind of gone at it kind of we've uh given each other

00:37:08.620 our best shot uh let's let's have respect for one another and both uh get rid of the uh crazy

00:37:15.380 girlfriend in this three-way relationship yeah yeah you're at the bar you both punched each other

00:37:20.900 out you know you're both sitting there bloody yeah but but but like maybe maybe but the red

00:37:26.360 Yeah, the redheaded hairdresser that we're fighting over, hopefully we got a little clearer

00:37:33.340 eyes on. That's nothing against people with red hair. It's a joke. But I really don't know.

00:37:45.400 I mean, the negotiation, first of all, if they all get in a room, the question is,

00:37:55.400 Who's in the room and can Vance take over? Because then I think there's a chance for game

00:38:00.880 theorying this way through. In other words, hey, you want this, we want this. If I think the

00:38:07.920 Israelis, they already, I saw on one of the news services that they were furious because they

00:38:14.540 already had a plan to kill the next guy in line in Iran. And this Pakistani guy, he probably

00:38:22.060 ought to be looking at the skies um i wouldn't be you know i don't think the israelis would attack

00:38:27.500 pakistan but don't check your pager buddy yeah exactly so i think i think the are there elements

00:38:35.980 within the irgc who would probably still be against any kind of settlement probably

00:38:42.060 um i think the iranians look if they can get out of this ultimately if they can get out from under

00:38:49.180 the sanction regime, that's a win, period. All the other stuff, to me, would seem to be

00:38:56.220 on the table. They would want to keep probably a 10% to 20% enrichment capability with IAEA

00:39:03.660 inspection. And then if they can get out of the sanction regime, I think they give away every

00:39:10.880 other point. I really do, because that's the whole reason for all of this, is the sanction regime.

00:39:17.160 I don't think Israel wants that. I don't think Israel wants a... I think they want everybody in

00:39:24.740 the area to be weak. I mean, after this whole thing started, they immediately started the

00:39:29.140 campaign against Turkey. And so somebody let that slip. I don't know if you remember that line.

00:39:39.320 And then there's long-term animosity between them and Egypt, but we're paying off Egypt

00:39:45.940 ever since the Sadat-Bagan Accord. So I don't know where this goes. I give it a less than 50%

00:39:55.780 chance of holding, but if we can just get a mature body at the table, then there is a chance.

00:40:06.080 But I absolutely would, I predict Israel doing everything they can to try to keep this whole

00:40:14.960 thing going and trying to push Trump into sustaining the attacks. They want the balkanization

00:40:22.440 of Iran. That's even a bigger disaster than us limping home with our tail between our legs,

00:40:29.020 because now you've got five different... Remember, Iran, us old guys, we call it Persia, but

00:40:35.300 the Persians in Iran are like the Han in China. It is the very gifted ruling class

00:40:44.160 race, ethnic group. But that's only 50% to 60% of the population. There are many, many,

00:40:54.880 many other tribes, especially in the southern sections away from Tehran. And balkanizing Iran

00:41:03.400 just makes this whole thing worse, worse, worse. Unless, again, and I don't think this is the case,

00:41:09.300 unless you just want to take this choke point off the map but that doesn't that uh even even the 5d

00:41:16.740 chess arguments that doesn't help the world be more prosperous and stable which again that's what

00:41:24.580 we we want the world to be prosperous and stable because we need a place for these dollars to go

00:41:31.140 yeah the only reason we care about what's happening there is because of the economy

00:41:35.220 right like that's right this is completely useless to us and i think you're right ron that

00:41:40.720 ultimately uh israel knows that this is the last chance for them to take iran down they're never

00:41:48.380 going to be able to do it by themselves they simply do not have the manpower they don't have

00:41:52.200 the population but they want to be regional hegemons like they want they do they want to

00:41:56.860 increase their territory make no mistake that that is a everybody calls that in in in in you

00:42:03.520 know policy uh groups and everything everybody calls that a a conspiracy theory but they've

00:42:09.420 they've made every indication I mean they've they've taken southern Lebanon they've taken the

00:42:13.460 the Golan and into Syria they've uh they they've taken Gaza uh they've they've populated all of the

00:42:22.040 West Bank um I think this greater Israel because otherwise hey there's net immigration out of

00:42:31.360 Israel. Israel is a, I don't want to overstate this, but they're a dying state.

00:42:38.300 The urban areas, without increasing their borders and finding a way to

00:42:44.680 grab population and productivity and incentivize a more peaceful way for worldwide

00:42:52.280 Jewry to relocate there, it's a dying place. And their demographic,

00:43:03.120 their fertility rate has plummeted, as has most of the West. And they've got to decide whether

00:43:10.240 they want to be Eastern or Western. And right now they're acting very Eastern, but it's a dying

00:43:15.780 thing. I'm not saying that as the whole idea of do they have a right to exist and all that. What

00:43:24.100 they have is a right under the UN charter to be all nations have a right to self-governance

00:43:31.660 and self-determination. No nation has a right to exist in international law. That's a made-up

00:43:38.880 thing and so sovereignty is hobbesian uh you that's right if you can kill your enemies and

00:43:45.040 you don't have it without it and that's all there is to it if you can protect and and whether you

00:43:49.520 can protect your citizenry if you want to go back to the hobbesian you know bargain is uh i give you

00:43:56.080 i give you allegiance because you give me safety and they haven't been able to do that with and

00:44:01.840 that's part of this deal that's a kind of legitimate part of this deal look iran is dangerous

00:44:07.280 if they fund hezbollah and hezbollah can can cause problems in in northern israel and so there's a

00:44:15.360 real trade-off here is that a primary national interest of the united states well that at least

00:44:22.720 that argument needs to be had and and it hasn't been um so you know uh i'm not i don't want to

00:44:31.120 seem flip about this because i'm not a you know i don't have anything against the individual jewish

00:44:36.960 guy or the guy's trying to live out his life faithfully in Israel under, you know, everybody

00:44:42.440 has their own way of life. That's Schmidian. And I'm okay with that. Whether it's in America's

00:44:48.000 national interest, whether it's an America first, if you want to call it that priority,

00:44:54.480 that's the debate that needs to be had. And that's the very debate that the lobby has tried

00:44:58.820 to keep us from having. No, I mean, you're exactly right. I mean, when you look at what

00:45:03.540 has happened to the reputations of you know kind of all of these gulf states as possible havens for

00:45:11.480 capital uh you know resort destinations obviously we look at uh you know all of these places that

00:45:17.940 have become uh dubai you know are kind of become these financial centers and and these travel

00:45:23.540 destinations and the whole premise was basically like we're a safe place in the middle east you

00:45:28.280 can do business you can be an airport hub here you can land you can spend your money you know

00:45:33.220 And the fact that obviously you are no longer safe, like these places cannot exist without the Pax Americana.

00:45:39.200 Israel is in the same scenario.

00:45:40.940 Nobody is going to want no Jewish person is going to want to move to Israel if it's constantly being shellacked by missiles.

00:45:48.040 Like there's just not going to be a scenario where they want to be there.

00:45:51.140 So Israel's only option to continue to attract population when they don't have a high enough birth rate is going to be to secure their own safety.

00:46:00.000 And they can't do it.

00:46:01.840 Israel cannot secure their own safety.

00:46:03.620 The only people who can secure the safety of Israel is the United States, and they know it.

00:46:08.000 So they need control of the United States.

00:46:10.880 They need to be able to influence the United States to become a guarantor of safety for them.

00:46:16.800 They need the Machiavelli, you know, warns us against the mercenaries, swords that are not yours.

00:46:22.200 Any victory won under someone else's sword is no victory at all.

00:46:26.720 And Israel is learning this in the most powerful way possible.

00:46:29.960 if you have auxiliaries they can win you a war and let's be really clear that's what happened

00:46:35.440 here israel called in u.s auxiliaries to fight the war for them well congratulations you don't

00:46:40.740 control them and when political will of your auxiliaries folds now you're stuck in a scenario

00:46:45.680 and there it's very simple israel's ambitions does not match their military might they do not have

00:46:51.960 the economic demographic or military ability to protect jews in the middle east they have to have

00:46:58.620 someone else do it for them and they are going to fail for the same reason machiavelli tells us

00:47:02.860 everyone who uses this strategy fails it's not about judaism or jews it's not about israel's

00:47:08.640 estate or the united states this is a raw fact of political theory and guess what a little tour

00:47:15.260 through an 80 page book called the prince could have helped you predict this a mile away but here

00:47:20.900 we are. And I appreciate your, uh, somewhat esoteric, uh, backhand to, uh, Lincoln there.

00:47:27.980 Um, uh, that was well done. Uh, you know, um, well, and we can't, we can't guarantee

00:47:36.840 any safety without that base in Bahrain. And I, again, not to hammer on what is a seemingly

00:47:44.660 isolated weird uh point but i don't see how that base gets rebuilt i just don't do if if i'm a

00:47:52.720 gulf state i'm creating a confederation i'm i'm secretly right now meeting in a confederation

00:47:59.240 with saudi bahrain and and the and the emirates and they haven't always gotten along so i get that

00:48:06.420 but with some kind of uh self-defense pact because they can't rely on the u.s that we've shown

00:48:11.760 that our bases got destroyed. And when the dust settles and the actual information leaks out,

00:48:20.620 I'm uncomfortable being very concrete about what I know, but it's worse than what has been made

00:48:28.660 public. I'll put it that way. It's a mess. And that includes Bahrain, that includes Saudi,

00:48:33.960 that includes our presence in Iraq, those have been decimated at best, destroyed at worst,

00:48:43.000 and including our ability to, you know, and that's not even going to just the very reality of our

00:48:52.420 shallow magazine depth with the, you know, the SM series of missiles and the THAAD and the

00:49:02.340 Patriot batteries, but our ability to have the high-level radar overwatch, that's all been

00:49:12.660 destroyed. And how does that get rebuilt? And again, without huge outlays, in addition to all

00:49:20.900 that's been all our aircraft and the people that are soldiers that have been killed, our aviators

00:49:27.420 that have been killed our pilots that have been killed we've had a massive loss of airframe

00:49:32.860 massive i don't want to overstate it but we've lost the capability to deploy probably uh in

00:49:39.740 double digits uh kc-135s those are our refueling our our both i think we had three airframes we

00:49:47.020 we lost two of our special forces MC-130s. We lost several little birds. And we haven't even

00:49:58.020 gotten into the very fishy story about the rescue of the colonel who was flying as a wizzo in the

00:50:06.900 backseat of a mud hen, of a strike eagle. None of that story makes sense to me. I think we've

00:50:15.280 been been i think we went and tried to get the uh uranium hexafluoride out of the ground and just

00:50:24.040 got our tails kicked in that not impugning the the bravery and the the stuff that has come out

00:50:31.680 amazing work from our guys but they were given a you know i don't buy the i don't buy the straight

00:50:38.040 line that, hey, yeah, we had a colonel punch out of the back seat of a F-15E and we used 76 airframes

00:50:48.440 to try to go find them. I just don't buy it. Maybe that's the case. I'd be glad to be wrong,

00:50:53.640 but I think this whole thing smells very fishy. But it just shows the impossibility of trying to

00:50:59.300 go and do anything in a Persian fortress. And that's what it's always been. It's always been

00:51:05.340 a fortress and trying to go into war with these guys was, look, tactical superiority

00:51:12.440 does not equal strategic ease. I can have tactical superiority and still be strategically

00:51:24.080 not accomplishing anything. See Vietnam. We're able to, I mean, we bombed the heck out of

00:51:30.220 North Vietnam, see Iraq, see the list goes on and on. And you can go back in classical history too.

00:51:38.340 Ron, literally our country was founded on the fact that we were backwoods rednecks who knew

00:51:45.520 our land better than the strongest military in human history. How do we not know this lesson?

00:51:52.340 It's literally the foundation of our nation that being able to kill more than the other guy is not

00:51:58.180 enough having enough ships having enough soldiers having better guns these are not sufficient uh

00:52:04.900 ways to to win a war it's literally at the core of our identity of americans and then the minute

00:52:10.900 we walk into another country it's like it just disappears like i feel like i'm going nuts yeah

00:52:15.700 why aren't yeah it's like uh it's like we're the british saying why aren't these guys lining up so

00:52:20.500 we can shoot them right what's going on why aren't they wearing bright colored uh uniforms so we can

00:52:27.300 see them across the battlefield this doesn't make sense to me you know well well ron uh we we've

00:52:33.620 talked a lot about the war in iran and with very good reason but the other topic we need to touch

00:52:37.780 on at least a little bit before we go is the attempt to during all of this during all of this

00:52:44.340 get by members of the gop to try to sneak amnesty across the finish line so obviously my biggest

00:52:53.780 concern with all of this while i didn't want to be involved in the war and everything else

00:52:57.540 my biggest concern about the war is that we would lose sight of the important domestic

00:53:03.160 priorities that trump was actually given a mandate to solve the deportations the immigration that

00:53:09.420 would be the issue and lo and behold not only have we not gotten the save act not only have

00:53:14.160 we not seen an increase of deportations during this time during the war but on top of this we

00:53:19.780 had uh what's her name again i always forget uh maria salazar uh a a gop uh congresswoman from

00:53:27.340 to the great shame my state of florida who came out with a dignity act as she called it and she

00:53:33.740 even named it in spanish um you know the dignity act which essentially grants amnesty to a large

00:53:42.860 number of people it basically halts deportations it uh you know gives dreamers amnesty it does

00:53:50.840 all kinds of stuff with green cards and family reunification that's going to just punch a hole

00:53:56.660 in everything that we were trying to do with MAGA and Ron I'm sick of this for several reasons once

00:54:04.260 yet another betrayal she had multiple GOP backers on this bill so it's not just her and her and every

00:54:10.460 single person who supported this should be persona non grata in the right going forward but on top of

00:54:16.100 this yeah it's an ethnic carve out ron it's obviously identity politics it's obviously an

00:54:22.200 ethnic cartel trying to carve out things for them in themselves inside the gop how is this allowed

00:54:29.280 like how are we still seeing this through everything it's it's the exact same thing as as

00:54:36.280 the uh as trump the administration the decision making matrix going to war unadvisedly it's

00:54:45.200 because there's a very fragmented uh decision uh uh understanding of what sovereignty is

00:54:54.340 it's the exact same thing you have foreign actors coming in and influencing your decision to go to

00:55:00.300 war, you now have no understanding within your own party of what a coherent view of what sovereignty

00:55:09.940 is. It's the same exact deal. So this immigration policy is one of the most basic expressions of

00:55:20.820 sovereignty. Who do you admit, under what terms, and why? Who do you declare as being, as a status?

00:55:28.680 you know we talk about in protestant christianity we talk about the status of righteousness

00:55:33.400 well who gets the status of civil as of citizen as being part of your

00:55:40.040 civilizational project that is the essence of sovereignty and with our as christians

00:55:46.680 we say jesus is the one who gets to decide and he has certain things you know baptism

00:55:52.520 profession of faith whatever in the country we have we have to be clear as to what those markers

00:55:59.320 of citizenship are and we're not we're fragmented as heck we're worse than a uh you know a a

00:56:07.800 third grade sunday school teacher trying to understand superlapsarianism i mean it's it's

00:56:13.640 it's it what what concerns me is this pattern where significant policy shifts appear to be

00:56:20.120 embedded in this larger legislative package without any clear public debate so that the

00:56:27.080 people can see this is exactly where the fragmentation is because while there are

00:56:32.920 huge problems with mass democracy trump trump was a is a man of the right at least in theory

00:56:39.240 but he was maybe the most his claims to his his claims to the presidency

00:56:46.120 were the most democratic in decades i represent these people who have not had a voice or their

00:56:53.560 voice has been ignored this middle part this coalition of the hard-working you know from

00:57:00.920 blue-collar folks to to uh uh to to to ethnic groups uh members of traditionally liberal ethnic

00:57:10.760 groups who have decided their deal their deal isn't working anymore he's he was this was his

00:57:16.280 claim and this has been where my deal with the war was can we get a little you know not to sound

00:57:25.720 completely machiavellian but let's be machiavellian okay if we're gonna do this can we get the lobby

00:57:32.280 uh supporting our save you know the save act and this immigrant can we can we have a little can we

00:57:38.360 have a little help here on immigration and we got nothing and and and that's so important ron

00:57:45.960 it's already insulting that there is so much influence from a foreign country that we have

00:57:50.840 to like basically acknowledge that we need to make deals with people who are acting on

00:57:54.520 the interests of a foreign country to even do things domestically in the united states

00:57:58.680 i don't want it's where we are real but but what else can i do like it's very clear that they

00:58:04.120 control way too much of our political process and make it incredibly difficult to get things done

00:58:09.480 now obviously they don't control everything because if they did trump wouldn't have made

00:58:12.420 this deal so this is not a oh you know trump just dances on the end of bb netanyahu's fishing pole

00:58:17.480 but the point is there's just too much influence and the fact that we have to make deals with

00:58:22.000 these people and they won't is insulting and i hope this is a lesson for everybody who said well

00:58:26.840 we can just work with the neocons we'll just give them a little bit of war as a treat oh ultimately

00:58:31.800 they're part of the coalition no you can't win with the neocons you'll give them everything they

00:58:38.320 want and you'll get nothing they'll get their war and they will give you nothing in fact they will

00:58:43.640 kick you in the teeth and give you amnesty instead that's the payback you get for working with these

00:58:49.360 guys so let's all learn a lesson here collectively you know that that would be great well they don't

00:58:55.320 only want to balkanize iran they want to balkanize the united states yeah because because that gives

00:59:03.400 them as trump has that ability to rule in chaos at least in his in his head he that's where his

00:59:09.160 deal is the neocons figure they can rule uh under domestic chaos it's a similar all this is tied

00:59:16.600 together these aren't disparate happenings this is all a lot of the same and it's it's late empire

00:59:23.080 it's late mass democracy this is uh not to sound too spingler you know too much like uh spingler

00:59:30.120 but but there is a certain amount of cycle uh to this that is uh i i hate to say uh foreseeable

00:59:39.000 and it's it's sad kind of yucky but do we we have time for questions do the uh folks have

00:59:45.640 as long as you have time for questions i know we've run a little long here but no i'm good

00:59:49.400 around i'm i'm good i'm sure i'm sure i've said something to make somebody mad uh well this is

00:59:56.360 this is a safe place to be spanglarian so i think you're okay i'm on that uh front at least uh ron

01:00:01.480 before we go to the questions obviously you wrote a piece on this it's a it's a little bit dated for

01:00:06.120 coming out one day before all this not your fault in the slightest that's the pace of of of what's

01:00:12.040 happening but where can people find your work i know you're not just writing at the american mind

01:00:15.800 you've got your own uh sub stack and everything where can people read yeah yeah and and and just

01:00:20.600 to plug those guys claremont's been very good to me they publish me uh they're very i think they're

01:00:26.520 honest brokers whether you agree with everything with them on everything or not

01:00:30.440 they're they they're trying to push the ball up the hill with an intellectual uh

01:00:36.040 intellectual an intellectual basis without being stodgy really communicate complex issues in a way

01:00:41.800 that makes sense so i love those guys um and i you know uh give them a an eye or an ear um then i'm

01:00:52.040 i'm published at american reformer uh i haven't given them anything in a little bit uh but that's

01:00:58.360 a great organization they do similar things in the in the kind of the intersection of politics

01:01:04.440 and theology uh as the claremont institute does in the intersection of philosophy and politics

01:01:10.760 and then I write for Responsible Statecraft, which is kind of a realist organization. It's

01:01:18.220 a publication of the Quincy Institute, and those guys are great. Kelly Velaos has been wonderful

01:01:22.300 to me over there, and then I write on my substack, which is the eyes of Apilles. Apilles is mentioned

01:01:29.840 at the end of the Book of Romans, so that's where you can find me, and I try to be good about putting

01:01:37.000 something out somewhere at least once a week excellent well let's jump into the questions then

01:01:42.800 from bram zwingle he says the fact iran has it wrapped up quickly as a loss for the u.s and much

01:01:48.580 like our forces stalling in ukraine shatters the fiction the u.s and the gae is the only game in

01:01:53.900 town yeah so ron this is actually arguably the most important part about this as much as i want

01:01:58.680 to be focused on the domestic issues and what we missed out here what could be the largest cost

01:02:04.380 ultimately for the u.s is the shattering idea of its invincibility look obviously vietnam

01:02:11.540 afghanistan you know it's been the u.s has had a rough time with some wars here in the past

01:02:16.840 but the fact that we have these back-to-back moments where the u.s went up against kind of

01:02:22.200 the russian iranian you know type of axis there uh and ultimately backed away or come or you know

01:02:29.680 in both scenarios, could not secure its objectives, could not do this. This really

01:02:34.680 shatters the air of invincibility, especially if it's true, again, that China had to step in

01:02:40.020 in a Suez crisis style moment. And I hate this because I know that a country having this level

01:02:48.160 of invincibility and respect in the world is so important and powerful. At the same time,

01:02:54.320 i hope i pray that this tempers you know the understanding geopolitically of what america

01:03:03.040 should be reaching for and allows us to take a moment and i don't want to see the full imperial

01:03:08.500 collapse of america that's never good for any country but i do hope this is a hadrian moment

01:03:13.420 i hope this is a moment where we say perhaps this far and no farther maybe it's time to retrench

01:03:18.480 you know recognize where our natural power lies build a few walls and take care of business at

01:03:24.760 home that's what i hope comes out of this but i'm worried that ultimately he's right that that this

01:03:30.040 destruction of the illusion america as this kind of one real you know unipolar actor on the world

01:03:36.240 stage is gonna have some pretty serious uh global realignment implications for everything including

01:03:42.820 our own economy which is so dependent on our world dominance militarily yeah in the in the the

01:03:50.500 even even in the height of the unipolar moment say in the late 90s early aughts maybe you know

01:04:00.340 even the early part of obama's presidency the the unipolar idea wasn't just that we had 10 or 11

01:04:11.140 carrier groups four of which were in the water at any time that it wasn't simply power projection

01:04:17.620 it was power projection for the sense this is where neoliberalism this is the neoliberal argument

01:04:24.180 and where it it worked for a while is that we were an influence of stability and that's the

01:04:33.220 casualty here we're gonna have tactical tactical superiority in any neutral situation and that

01:04:44.340 that hasn't changed i mean we can turn off the gps satellites we can do this or that the problem is

01:04:49.540 we we choose to go into these places where it's not tactically neutral we're going to iran on

01:04:55.220 their home front is not neutral tactically we can blow up stuff but they they it's their homeland

01:05:01.300 right we're not meeting them out in the middle of the indian ocean somewhere where we would win the

01:05:06.980 but but the it's the the real casualty is that people are realizing because of the very erratic

01:05:15.540 nature of trump's messaging and the lack of strategic goals being clear there is not an

01:05:22.420 emphasis on global stability here and that's where these neutral third parties have depended

01:05:28.820 or at least move toward respecting the US because of that. We can at least know that the US, if the

01:05:39.380 US gets involved, things are going to get better at some point. Whether they win or lose is less

01:05:44.260 important than we know things are going to, it's not going to be chaos. Well, right now, this is

01:05:48.260 chaos. This is absolute bedlam. And that's the biggest casualty to the American reputation.

01:05:57.860 It's not the it's not the other things, although that's bad.

01:06:01.220 It's it's we're not an agent of we're just not an agent of of peace and stability.

01:06:08.380 Yeah, you need the Pax Americana.

01:06:10.640 What we represent is global order.

01:06:12.540 As long as, you know, again, it's it's the Hobbesian understanding of sovereignty.

01:06:18.540 If you can guarantee safety, if you can guarantee safe commerce, then people will allow you to functionally rule the world.

01:06:25.940 But the minute you can no longer do that, you've lost the mandate of heaven. They're not going to allow you to operate the system if you cannot reliably guarantee the safety of that system as you benefit from it. So our time from benefiting from a global order is going to come to an end if we continually dash our ability to maintain a global order on the racks. And I think it's very clear that that is unfortunately something that is happening in real time.

01:06:55.940 square knows that in hospitality efficiency is everything that's why their system lets you take

01:07:02.560 payments track sales handle inventory manage staff send invoices and keep up with finances

01:07:07.900 all in one place apply through orders with zero mistakes get the data you need and keep everything

01:07:13.780 working together so you're ready for whatever's next learn more about their customizable plans

01:07:18.820 Yeah, and the world will go and look for that agent who will provide that order.

01:07:29.060 That is a vacuum that must be filled.

01:07:32.600 Guys, I hate to break this to you, but nothing has changed, okay?

01:07:36.960 Like, people kick up to the feudal lord because he can kill the barbarians when they come to raid his town.

01:07:42.320 People kick up to Rome because they can stop the invading barbarians when they come to burn the town down.

01:07:48.240 people kick up to the united states because you can stop the pirates from raiding their ships

01:07:52.780 when they're sending billions of dollars of stuff to each other over the water if that stops they

01:07:58.320 don't just sit around and figure it out themselves they look for the next guy who will kill bad guys

01:08:04.100 in their name that's how actual politics works latrina bidet irs enforcer says complex systems

01:08:10.840 won't survive the competency crisis yeah that uh that brutal truth just shares itself more and more

01:08:17.720 every time. Well, real quick on that. One of my notes I wrote to myself on the whiteboard,

01:08:24.000 which is behind, you can't see it, but was this whole thing has exacerbated the complexity of

01:08:29.440 a system that the U.S. now cannot control. That's exactly right. This is very John,

01:08:34.840 oh, good night, global gorillas. Gosh, what's John's last name? Anyway, this network system

01:08:43.120 requires the very pox americana that that uh oran has spoken of and that's the casualty here

01:08:50.580 yeah you you already had a scenario where we were seeing the just-in-time delivery and tenuous

01:08:56.380 economic setup in the world get hit by things like covid and and competency failing when you

01:09:02.380 lose the american influence on top of that as well like this system our global trade system is

01:09:08.280 wildly unnatural and entirely unsustainable without just an insane amount of extropy

01:09:14.900 exerted by the united states and without a force of that level creating that extropy

01:09:21.360 entropy will re you know retake reassert going on here it's going to happen

01:09:27.040 wild speaker 94 says i'd love to be proven wrong but i don't think this conflict ends until the

01:09:33.240 U.S. distance itself from Israel. Israel is gallivanting in Lebanon. We are hearing about

01:09:39.520 Turkey being next. When does this end? Well, like I said, I think Joe Kent was right to say that

01:09:44.300 peace requires the United States controlling Israel. Now, Ron, we already talked about that,

01:09:48.980 but let me ask you real quick, and I don't want to spend too long on it because I'm already

01:09:52.020 keeping you too long, but is there a scenario where the U.S. walks and Israel stays in conflict?

01:09:59.740 that's a great question that's a really good question let me let me say one thing as a as

01:10:09.420 kind of a backstop to to this israel question the united states has there are more jews in the

01:10:15.980 united states than any other country in the world including israel so the idea that we're going to

01:10:21.000 completely break away from any relationship at all to what is important to world jury is that's

01:10:30.000 just not going to happen. Okay. And that, it, that's fantastic. At least in the, in the foreseeable

01:10:35.740 future, you know, if there was huge immigration, I, I, with an E immigration out, uh, but, but

01:10:42.540 that's, I don't, I don't think that's going to happen. The question is, is being having,

01:10:46.260 having the ability the having the Overton window so to speak to be able to talk honestly about

01:10:53.380 these things so that and that's ultimately best for both Christians Jews and everybody else

01:10:58.920 is can we just talk openly and honestly so that we can have a more uh a a more honest relationship

01:11:06.680 but but there's there's I don't see a a possibility of hey we're just gonna you know wipe our hands

01:11:13.920 and be done. Can we just have a more, look, if we're going to have an open marriage, can we at

01:11:18.920 least determine who gets the bedroom and what days and times? That's a gross example, but that's kind

01:11:25.080 of where we are. And we need to have the ability to have that conversation honestly and openly

01:11:34.040 and maturely. And that just currently isn't the case. But I think we're going to get there pretty

01:11:41.860 quick i i think we're either going to get there or we're going to rip the country apart trying

01:11:45.980 i think that's right that's right the options are look the united states is occupied by several

01:11:52.320 ethnic cartels that are driving our politics that's just the case and if we're not allowed

01:11:57.960 to talk about that our country will simply shred itself alive in public trying to stop us from

01:12:04.000 having that very important conversation it's exactly what there is to it that's all that's

01:12:09.000 let's do it uh free freelancer you says uh so the american suez crisis is that it we're weak now

01:12:16.420 also gb number two first of equals and not number one really is this the beginning of the decline

01:12:23.400 again i desperately hope that's not the case i am an american i am rooting for america however

01:12:28.860 i want to be clear my allegiance is to the american people first the state is nice and when

01:12:35.100 the state is protecting us and serving us i support it but my loyalty is to my people not to

01:12:42.420 some collection of institutions now ultimately the american empire can be a force for good in

01:12:48.220 the united states and to the extent that it is i support it but when we have an american empire

01:12:54.540 running amok causing all kinds of problems not serving the interests of us but other powers

01:12:59.600 and ultimately is not benefiting us but trading our welfare and our sovereignty for the benefit

01:13:04.860 of the elites who operate it sorry you're losing me there so i would hope again that we're seeing

01:13:10.320 a hadrian moment and not a collapse of the roman empire moment i hope we're seeing a moment where

01:13:15.300 we recognize okay it was nice to control that territory but we went too far it's time to hem

01:13:20.480 things back in and trying to get things under control and reform things and extend the life

01:13:25.020 of the state to the extent that it will help the american people but i don't think that the entire

01:13:30.900 health of the American people can be measured by the strength of the American state. I don't think

01:13:36.120 these are the same thing. I think the U.S. has a much greater chance to effectively project its

01:13:45.160 influence and power if it focuses on its near abroad first. Yes. If it does that, then it has

01:13:52.460 much better foundation to do when it's necessary to uh exert influence or carry a stick uh in the

01:14:01.740 far abroad um but but you've got to shore up your near abroad which has been neglected i don't know

01:14:08.780 for a hundred years um so uh what god has given us the greatest geo you know geopolitical reality

01:14:19.500 maybe in the history of the world we have two oceans and two what should be friendly client

01:14:27.820 states on either side but neither able to project any power except criminal um and and so we ought

01:14:36.700 to leverage that uh to control our uh our our close-in area exactly what china's done china's

01:14:44.940 been so good on this i don't agree with you know everybody should read lion's china convergence

01:14:52.220 yeah it's very it's just yeah it's like a book it's a long piece but but it's very good on this

01:14:59.900 um to understand what kind of some of the levers and mechanisms are but i think i think the we

01:15:05.660 could absolutely arrest our decline with a focus on the near abroad and that's one of the things

01:15:11.820 things. I'm so distressed about this whole imbroglio. I agree 100%. Bring things. It

01:15:18.320 doesn't mean isolationism, the most dangerous word in the world, but it does mean what our

01:15:24.700 founders told us. Literally, our founders told us, don't go making alliances in Europe. Don't go

01:15:29.920 making alliances with these far-off powers who are embroiled in their own problems. We have

01:15:35.000 everything we need here. God is giving us the blessing of these oceans and this vast territory.

01:15:39.680 There is nothing that we need that we can't have in our zone, our natural zone of control under the Monroe Doctrine.

01:15:47.500 That's all there is to it. And that's what we should be adhering to.

01:15:51.220 A wild speaker again says, if the U.S. leaves NATO and Israel seeks sees Turkey as a threat, there is a non zero chance U.S. assists Israel in a war against the NATO, a NATO country.

01:16:01.740 So, again, it's very obvious that Israel is laying the groundwork for this.

01:16:06.940 However, a lot of people have said, oh, well, Trump only wants to leave NATO because of that. No, that's wrong. He's been against NATO for decades. He's been pointing it out for a very long time. And by the way, never, ever confuse some other country's interests so much that you will then hurt your own, right? You don't want to be so spiteful towards Israel that you hurt your own interests anymore than you want to be so favorable towards Israel that you hurt your own interests. It is in our interest to dissolve NATO, period.

01:16:33.100 So if that's what we need to do, then Israel can do whatever it wants with Turkey, as long as it does it on its own. That's fine. But it's us getting involved. If we can remove Israeli influence in the United States, then it doesn't matter if we dissolve NATO or not. If they have too much influence, whether, you know, NATO's part of Turkey or we're part of Turkey's part of NATO or part of NATO doesn't matter. The problem is the influence, not our current status in NATO.

01:16:58.460 Yeah. And a real history of how we came about with this is important. We don't have time to

01:17:09.680 do that right now, but Turkey is in NATO because we needed a place to put short and medium range

01:17:20.960 ballistic missiles when we were fighting the Soviets. And we needed access into the Black

01:17:26.240 sea and turkey controls the bosporus and dardanelles a detente with russia and one of the

01:17:32.480 reasons that we were friends with with israel is so that we could have strategic uh intelligence

01:17:39.280 and footprint into that whole area um russia not being the soviets anymore and us having vast oil

01:17:48.800 reserves of our own mitigates all of that there's there's no strategic reason for us to now we it

01:17:57.360 would make sense to me for us to have a a thawing of relations with the russians um in order to

01:18:05.200 facilitate a a reset of all of this that is that has the hurdle of being of of some old ethnic

01:18:14.400 feuds with our friend who we keep talking about here um there is uh you know so i don't know if

01:18:21.520 that happens at least in this administration i very much doubt it uh but but there are some there

01:18:28.800 are some very uh uh anachronistic relationships here and that that need to be at the very least

01:18:40.320 refigured and remade uh so that we can again not abandon the world but but the the it's a house

01:18:49.040 it's a bit of a house of cards and and uh you know you don't want the chaos of it all coming down all

01:18:56.000 at once without you deciding how it happens so trump one of the good things that he's trying to

01:19:02.160 do is is be the agent that helps initiate this next piece of history on his terms that's very

01:19:11.040 wise that's uh him not being an agent of chaos even though it looks chaotic in the in the in the

01:19:18.000 in the accidents of it the essence of it is very is very strategic so but i don't know how it ends

01:19:26.240 alfred the great says how are we supposed to build a coalition with those that put israel's

01:19:30.240 interests above america's we need a real nation level convo about israel's influence before 28

01:19:35.220 of the dims will sweep elections again i i think that ultimately it's true i think we're already

01:19:42.320 in that process it's very clear again there's so much mixed in here because of course there is

01:19:47.840 actually ethnic hatred out there but you know it's in the interest of people who don't want

01:19:52.880 us to have this conversation to say any attempt to have this conversation is then a reflection

01:19:56.720 of ethnic hatred and we just have to step over it just after just like you stepped over the word

01:20:01.400 racism it doesn't mean anything anymore you can't scare me anymore it's not getting me fired with it

01:20:06.020 anymore i don't care it doesn't matter your word is meaningless to me your insult is meaningless

01:20:09.920 to me the same thing has to happen with israel israel is just one more country like china or

01:20:14.920 ukraine or qatar or the uk or anyone else that we don't want having too much influence in the u.s

01:20:21.400 and until everyone is willing to say that as joe kent said we're not gonna have peace like until

01:20:26.240 until there is an understanding that we need to control the influence that this country has in

01:20:31.100 our nation we're going to keep running into this problem everybody i think at this point is having

01:20:36.240 that conversation no matter how much and this is why people running around going like oh well stop

01:20:40.880 asking questions and you're all just candace owens like those people are not helping themselves this

01:20:46.660 discussion is happening you've lost everyone under 40 everyone everyone under 48 doesn't believe you

01:20:54.160 anymore and all the shaming and all the shutting up and all the attempts to censorship and deep

01:20:58.720 platform in the world are not going to resolve this issue for you so you can learn that or you

01:21:04.700 can burn the house down but those are your options it seems like burn the house down is what many

01:21:09.240 pro-israel people are really really counting on we will just light the country on fire if you do

01:21:14.600 not listen to what we're saying but sorry we can't play this game anymore we can't let you guys take

01:21:19.000 hostages with us anymore we have to be able to discuss foreign influence no matter what country

01:21:23.240 is involved with it that's all there is to it yeah and the reason for the under 40 deal is just

01:21:28.540 because they didn't grow up in the uh with the overarching emphasis of the post-war consensus

01:21:34.480 right that that low that myth is much less load-bearing for them well and they didn't

01:21:39.960 have the you know the cold war so none of the israel is an outpost for you know against the

01:21:44.700 soviets and like none of like none of none of the things that tied us you know lashed us to this

01:21:50.240 country are still there we really don't need any of it the oil the geopolitical stuff the you know

01:21:56.300 the the kind of the dispensationalist stuff like all of this is fading away all the reasons to be

01:22:01.840 attached at the hip with israel are fading away and all the reasons to treat it like just one

01:22:07.340 more country are emerging and that's exactly what it should be again you don't need to hate anybody

01:22:12.300 you don't need to wish wish ill on anyone but we do need to look out for ourselves and we need to

01:22:18.540 unabashed about proclaiming that joe mcdermott says uh getting nothing on legal immigration and

01:22:25.360 h1b opt plus now an amnesty push moves me from rational blackpilling to rage pilling americans

01:22:31.400 don't want immigration uh are we a country or are we conquered again i very much doubt that we're

01:22:37.340 going to see salazar win anything with this act i think it's dead in the water already but the very

01:22:42.340 fact that she was willing to try to float it at this moment says everything that needs to be said

01:22:46.840 Right there. We're not getting everything we need out of the Trump administration right now because they were distracted.

01:22:52.900 I'm hoping that peace happens and we can return to accelerating deportations and getting back on track domestically as we were promised.

01:23:00.760 But one thing is for sure. Salazar and anyone who backed her bill should be expunged from the GOP.

01:23:07.740 They should be persona non grata. It should be impossible for them to raise a dollar.

01:23:11.500 They should all be primaried. This is an insult to the United States, an insult to conservatives, an insult to MAGA voters and Trump voters.

01:23:18.480 And it simply cannot be allowed.

01:23:20.900 That's right. And I mean, again, you're about to see a SCOTUS decision on that you're not going to like on right on citizenship.

01:23:32.920 You're probably not going to get any part of the SAVE Act done.

01:23:36.460 and uh you know the the court is independent in theory but the but the legislature should have

01:23:46.000 you should be able to exert influence great amounts of influence over uh it's the senate

01:23:52.420 that's the problem and uh that's a can we you know if the president has to go over to the senate

01:24:00.140 building then he needs to go over to and hang out and and say well and and and be every day making

01:24:08.220 that save act is huge and you wouldn't believe you know if you're following it i was listening

01:24:12.860 to i have to because of my what i do for a living i have to listen to bloomberg all the time and you

01:24:17.180 wouldn't believe the arguments even coming from some republicans against the seva well you know

01:24:22.380 there's primaries and now does do we have to federalize primaries and and all just every

01:24:28.140 argument under the sun it's like just just make sure that you know we can't keep up with who's on

01:24:35.980 the voter roll and whether they're citizens it's just not pro well then peep certain people don't

01:24:40.700 get to vote that's right i'm sorry you make the citizen make the effort you know everybody's

01:24:48.380 saying we got to bend over backwards like voting is some is a is a is is a right no it's a it really

01:24:55.500 is a privilege yeah once again ron i'm just done with all of the you know uh like i'm not even

01:25:01.900 answering any of those objections at this point we all know the solution we all know it's actually

01:25:07.140 not that hard and we all know that everything being thrown up there is bs to run us into a

01:25:12.420 political cul-de-sac instead of getting things done what i need back is the trump i got at the

01:25:16.720 very beginning of this administration writing executive orders bulldozing the left like it's

01:25:21.360 nobody's business not distracted with foreign policy not listening to you know little neocons

01:25:26.720 in his ear not getting promises of uh you know some kind of amnesty from people who are out of

01:25:32.240 line i need trump on the podium every day telling these traders that are trying to stab us in the

01:25:37.460 back on immigration that their future in the gop is over and that we are going to get this done

01:25:42.200 that's what i want to see out of the admin and that's what i hope happens once we're done with

01:25:46.380 this war but guys i want to thank everybody for watching i want to thank ron for coming on it's

01:25:50.960 been a fantastic conversation. Make sure you go and you read his work. And if it's your first time

01:25:55.200 on this YouTube channel, of course, you need to click the subscribe button, the bell, the

01:25:59.840 notification. Make sure you get those notifications, guys. Otherwise, YouTube buries the content. And

01:26:05.100 of course, if you want to get these broadcast as podcasts, you need to subscribe to Orr McIntyre

01:26:09.400 Show on your favorite podcast platform. Thank you, everybody, for watching. And as always,

01:26:13.680 I'll talk to you next time.

The Auron MacIntyre Show - April 08, 2026

Amnesty Betrayal and the World's Shortest Ceasefire ｜ Guest： Ronald Dodson ｜ 4⧸8⧸26

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