The Auron MacIntyre Show - Partisan Politics as a Game of Chicken ｜ Guest： The Prudentialist ｜ 8⧸23⧸24

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00:00:30.440 Hey, everybody. How's it going?

00:00:32.540 Thanks for joining me this afternoon.

00:00:34.340 I've got a great stream with a great guest that I think you're really going to enjoy.

00:00:39.180 So, as you know, here we like to run through some political theory,

00:00:43.780 look at essays, and try to understand what they're saying,

00:00:47.140 see if we can apply it to the things that are going on.

00:00:49.780 We are once again back with the work of Nick Land from his Xenosystems blog.

00:00:56.160 The essay we're looking at right now is Chicken.

00:00:59.260 It's from 2013, but I think it lays out a lot of things that are very relevant to us today,

00:01:05.840 specifically talking about why conservatives tend to lose over and over again,

00:01:12.500 kind of the game theory behind why there's this,

00:01:15.760 it seems like an almost mechanical loss that conservatives run into on a regular basis.

00:01:21.520 And, of course, joining me to break apart and better understand this essay is everyone's favorite frog,

00:01:28.780 the Prudentialist.

00:01:29.480 Thanks for joining me, man.

00:01:30.480 Yeah, thanks for having me on, Oren.

00:01:31.740 Always a pleasure.

00:01:32.440 Absolutely.

00:01:33.800 We're also seeing that, actually, right now, live, it looks like RFK Jr. has conceded.

00:01:42.760 He's suspending his campaign and looks like he's going to be endorsing Donald Trump.

00:01:47.940 Right now, he's yelling about the Democratic Party as much as, I guess, his voice can yell,

00:01:54.060 saying that, yeah, basically it rigged everything, replaced their candidate without a real primary,

00:02:01.200 no vote, no real voting process, hitting them on all kinds of stuff, corruption, being slaves of big pharma,

00:02:07.840 big tech, that kind of stuff.

00:02:09.480 So we'll touch a little bit on what implications RFK stepping out of the race may have.

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00:03:40.600 All right, Prudentialists.

00:03:41.940 So before we dive into the essay here itself,

00:03:45.380 I wanted to ask you a little bit about your opinion with RFK stepping out of the race.

00:03:51.540 In a moment like this where you have a very weak candidate on the Democratic side

00:03:57.400 and a candidate that is popular with his base but has difficulty kind of crossing that threshold of 50%

00:04:04.540 because there are so many people who are really vehemently against him and Donald Trump,

00:04:10.140 this is often when you would think that a third party and outside candidate would be able to make their move.

00:04:15.660 The Libertarian Party has kind of stepped in this multiple times.

00:04:19.500 Obviously, they had Gary Johnson last time.

00:04:22.600 You thought that there would be a real contest when it looked like both Trump and Hillary were deeply unpopular.

00:04:30.600 And then now they have their new candidate, Chase something or whatever.

00:04:35.640 It's a guy who's big on trans kids and open borders.

00:04:38.820 So they kind of just up for the ritual humiliation.

00:04:43.940 Anytime there might be any hope of stepping in the mainstream and filling a desperate hole in the electorate,

00:04:51.260 they seem to swing for the fences in an embarrassment.

00:04:55.820 But RFK is somebody who did pick up a decent amount of momentum,

00:04:59.100 especially because he was a guy who was pushing back very hard against kind of big pharma,

00:05:05.920 the lockdowns, vaccinations, these kind of things, gained a bit of a following there.

00:05:11.820 But ultimately, do you think that him stepping out of the race and endorsing Trump will have a significant impact?

00:05:19.200 Potentially.

00:05:20.220 I'd have to look closer at the polling, but I think that it's important to consider that

00:05:24.000 out of all the people I've seen when I'm in, say, like Dallas or Fort Worth,

00:05:29.020 the only major political, you know, memorabilia I would see being worn outside of maybe American flags

00:05:35.000 and Trump hats or flags like that being waved around was RFK shirts.

00:05:40.400 And I feel like he had this bizarre mix of, you know,

00:05:44.600 what used to be considered very new agey liberal positions about raw milk and skepticism

00:05:49.940 about government regulation over vaccinations and things like that.

00:05:53.560 To where that has definitely become sort of a more new right or online right sort of position

00:05:58.880 in the wake of COVID and everything else.

00:06:01.180 So, I mean, he's also got that nostalgia factor to him.

00:06:03.800 He is a Kennedy.

00:06:04.800 He is kind of captured the older boomer women, you know, Gen X kind of someone 0.94

00:06:10.500 who would have enjoyed Woodstock 99 kind of mentality of like, oh, Camelot.

00:06:14.280 You know, I remember that when I was younger and things such as that matter.

00:06:17.260 I think the fact that anytime that there's a third party or a spoiler, as we saw in 2016,

00:06:21.720 that was the highest vote turnout I think we had seen the Libertarian Party ever get with Gary Johnson.

00:06:26.460 So to see RFK, you know, drop out and announce to all of his supporters in battleground states,

00:06:33.880 please vote for Donald Trump.

00:06:35.280 I think that's a good sign.

00:06:36.760 It makes the margin of victory, I think, a little easier in Trump's favor,

00:06:40.660 because I think it became kind of clear that he was poking more, I think, from Democrats than or

00:06:46.880 yeah, from Democratic voters more than Republican likely voters.

00:06:49.760 So I think it's good to see that he can maybe bring people over.

00:06:53.120 And if you're someone who believes in like a principled system, which you and I both know,

00:06:57.120 there's no principles in this game.

00:06:58.680 But, you know, if someone who wants to say, well, that's not fair, that's not right.

00:07:01.440 The Democratic Party wasn't being Democratic.

00:07:03.620 I mean, you got more people excited about Beyonce yesterday than anyone was over Kamala Harris,

00:07:09.080 the Democratic National Convention.

00:07:10.960 And, you know, and it says a lot that Beyonce or Taylor Swift doesn't want to, like,

00:07:14.420 be at this convention standing next to Kamala Harris.

00:07:17.220 So it's a good sign, I think, for RFK to drop out.

00:07:20.140 It's a less third party.

00:07:21.120 It's less lawsuits.

00:07:22.240 It's good overall for the campaign for Trump.

00:07:25.340 Yeah, I wanted to ask you about that, too.

00:07:27.200 Obviously, you have to be a masochist to watch all of the, you know, the DNC.

00:07:34.540 But it's, you know, it seemed like they were not gaining the kind of momentum that they had hoped for.

00:07:41.320 A lot of people were showing poll numbers that are going down as the DNC is running,

00:07:46.100 which is not really what you're hoping from your convention.

00:07:48.460 And interestingly enough, a lot of what they've been doing to try to get crowds

00:07:52.780 has been more or less running, like, these free concerts, right?

00:07:56.700 Like, one of the big advantages, of course, that the Democrats have is that there are a large number of pop figures

00:08:04.340 who are willing to show up.

00:08:06.260 And, of course, the Republicans have, you know, Lee Greenwood, I guess, and Kid Rock.

00:08:13.480 But, you know, they can regularly turn out pretty large stars.

00:08:18.200 And this is how they've been driving people to the Harris campaign.

00:08:21.000 It's like, well, maybe you care about the rally, maybe you don't.

00:08:23.920 But there's an artist that you like, and they're going to be there, so you might as well show up.

00:08:29.480 And then, like you said, they were kind of teasing that it's going to be Taylor Swift or Beyonce or somebody.

00:08:34.340 I even saw people saying George W. Bush was going to show up.

00:08:38.500 But that obviously did not materialize.

00:08:40.760 But the fact that they kind of obviously spread those rumors about these large stars showing up

00:08:47.500 just to try to build hype and get people to watch.

00:08:50.220 And then these people wouldn't show up.

00:08:51.900 It felt like a moment of – it felt like a really cheap cash-in.

00:08:56.420 You know, they've been relying on this ability to turn out people with star power

00:09:02.120 that had nothing to do with Kamala Harris.

00:09:04.240 It was the only reason people were showing up.

00:09:06.400 And then they tried to push that again, and they couldn't even deliver on the goods.

00:09:10.000 And so it's like, well, how much momentum are you really building?

00:09:13.340 Even though we know this is all kind of online hype,

00:09:15.840 even the online hype game starts to fall apart if you can't put these people

00:09:20.140 who you're promising out during these events.

00:09:22.620 Well, it seems that the origination was that they announced a special guest,

00:09:27.080 and then I think Politico ran with it the most, saying, you know,

00:09:30.240 it's got to be Beyonce or something big like that. 0.64

00:09:33.120 And again, I think that the online presence for Kamala Harris' campaign is very millennial.

00:09:39.880 It is very much ran, I think, in a lot of ways by white female millennials and their politics. 1.00

00:09:45.160 You can see, you know, black activists get upset when Kamala Harris has got records of Miles Davis

00:09:49.880 or whatever, saying, like, this isn't, you know, authentic.

00:09:52.800 But, I mean, it's authentic in the eyes of, I think, primarily white suburban single voters,

00:09:58.480 as well as those who live in the cities.

00:10:00.420 And I think that that campaign reflects it.

00:10:01.960 But, I mean, only time will tell because, at present,

00:10:07.500 there are two very different strategies being spent financially with these campaigns.

00:10:11.540 One of these is far more traditional that has the backing of every major institution for it,

00:10:15.200 which is Kamala Harris.

00:10:16.600 Trump is trying a variety of strategies, getting more bang for his buck,

00:10:20.280 using alternative organizations, including TPUSA and others for get-out-the-vote efforts.

00:10:25.320 But, I mean, we'll see.

00:10:27.360 I think it's very clear that no matter what comes out of this election,

00:10:30.500 that it's going to be a mixed house and more procedural kabuki theater.

00:10:35.520 And if you work with anything that gets federal dollars,

00:10:38.280 good luck getting a budget done in the next several months.

00:10:41.320 You know, the other thing that happened right before we finally go to the actual topic of our stream,

00:10:45.700 just happened live, is that, I guess, over on Truth,

00:10:50.160 even though he's also posting on Twitter now,

00:10:52.860 Trump just said something to the effect of,

00:10:55.580 his administration will be good for women's rights or reproductive rights.

00:11:03.760 So I guess this is his attempt to hedge the bet.

00:11:08.460 You know, he's not wrong.

00:11:10.760 Like, the polling's not wrong to say that,

00:11:12.740 obviously, abortion is a big turnout issue for the left,

00:11:17.100 that that is a primary thing that they're hitting

00:11:19.720 to try to make sure that they can get people to the polls

00:11:22.460 is probably one of the most motivating issues for the left.

00:11:26.680 If, you know, the people who are single-issue voters over there

00:11:30.720 tend to be in favor of that,

00:11:34.480 do you think that that is going to have any significant impact

00:11:37.820 on the evangelical or, you know, vote for Trump?

00:11:42.200 And do you think it'll win him any voters who were hesitant

00:11:45.320 on the issue previously?

00:11:48.380 Short and long answer is both no.

00:11:51.080 And I think that Trump needs to emphasize more so

00:11:54.360 on getting the millions of, you know,

00:11:58.400 low to no college education males out to vote like he did in 2016.

00:12:03.020 I mean, I understand that you need to hedge your bets

00:12:04.800 and try to make yourself a softer image.

00:12:07.480 I mean, Trump has definitely done that, of course,

00:12:09.080 since the assassination attempt.

00:12:11.340 And I saw the Secret Service, you know,

00:12:13.040 put people on suspension like there's ever going to be

00:12:15.500 any real accountability there.

00:12:17.160 But I think that Trump needs to try and make himself

00:12:21.460 look more appealing to white voters,

00:12:23.400 white women voters, especially, 0.97

00:12:24.920 in part because that was a major demographic he lost in 2020.

00:12:28.620 I understand why he's doing it.

00:12:30.440 But also, I mean, it's the same sort of parallax

00:12:32.920 we see when you mention evangelicals.

00:12:34.800 A lot of evangelical leaders want to throw Trump under the bus

00:12:37.660 despite giving him the greatest pro-life victory

00:12:39.380 in the history of their political movement.

00:12:41.120 But at the same time, most evangelicals

00:12:43.880 are probably going to vote for Trump anyways.

00:12:46.240 The DNC did offer a strange dynamic

00:12:48.760 where you can have some clergymen hide his pectoral cross

00:12:53.300 and then talk about, you know, vibes,

00:12:55.120 but no invocation of the name of Jesus Christ

00:12:57.440 and try and paint the Democrats as the real Christians.

00:13:00.980 And so I guess that'll be an interesting battleground

00:13:02.860 to open up in the future.

00:13:03.960 But I think that the lines are pretty well drawn on this one

00:13:07.420 and that if you're already a liberal

00:13:09.040 and you listen to liberal media, you're going to do

00:13:11.640 what the TV or your phone screen tells you to do.

00:13:14.760 Yeah, I don't see this shifting, you know,

00:13:18.300 support one way or the other.

00:13:20.220 Like you said, ultimately, I think Trump has achieved

00:13:24.440 a lot more than anyone else in this area.

00:13:27.660 But, you know, pro-lifers are understandably unhappy

00:13:32.040 with his rhetoric and his willingness to,

00:13:34.260 I guess, bend on certain issues.

00:13:36.680 I understand why he didn't want to pursue

00:13:39.060 any additional legislation on a national ban

00:13:42.820 when they had just gotten the Roe versus Wade overturned.

00:13:46.720 I think that I understand that strategically,

00:13:49.260 but coming out and stating that just doesn't,

00:13:51.480 it seems like it wouldn't get him any voters.

00:13:54.480 I think, like you said,

00:13:56.740 most evangelicals aren't going to go anywhere else.

00:13:58.820 They'll still vote for Trump.

00:13:59.760 So I don't think it'll lose him that much,

00:14:01.480 but it's certainly not going to gain him any.

00:14:03.340 And so I think it's just,

00:14:04.460 I think it's just slobby, but it's Trump.

00:14:06.680 So, you know, he tweets whatever he tweets, right?

00:14:09.260 There's not really any,

00:14:10.720 there's not a huge amount of strategy

00:14:14.660 going into some of those sometimes.

00:14:16.520 Yeah, we'll see.

00:14:19.180 All right.

00:14:19.660 Well, that said, let's head over to our essay for today.

00:14:23.060 So again, this is Nick Land.

00:14:24.360 He wrote this back in 2013.

00:14:25.740 So keep all of that in context with the references here.

00:14:30.380 They're all going to be very dated,

00:14:31.720 but it lays out a dynamic that has played itself out quite accurately.

00:14:36.300 So I think this is well worth going back and reading

00:14:38.460 because it was very prescient

00:14:39.800 and it illuminates a lot of what is happening now.

00:14:42.940 So let's break into this real quick.

00:14:45.460 He says,

00:14:45.820 When political polarization is modeled as a game,

00:14:49.420 the result is chicken.

00:14:51.280 The technical basis basics are not very complicated.

00:14:55.060 A reiterated prisoner's dilemma or RPD is socially integrative.

00:15:00.580 An equilibrium conforming to maximal aggregate utility

00:15:04.880 arises through reciprocal convergence upon an optimum strategy,

00:15:09.640 defaulting to trust, punishing defections,

00:15:12.520 and rapidly forgiving corrected behavior.

00:15:15.820 Any society adopting these rule of thumb principles consolidates.

00:15:21.360 When everyone norms on this strategy,

00:15:24.020 individual and collective interaction or interests are harmonized.

00:15:28.040 Things work.

00:15:29.380 All right.

00:15:29.680 So in order to break that down,

00:15:30.840 we should probably clarify.

00:15:32.240 I think a lot of people will be familiar with game theory

00:15:35.320 or at least the prisoner's dilemma.

00:15:36.800 If you know like one thing about game theory,

00:15:39.200 it's usually the prisoner's dilemma.

00:15:40.900 But can you explain for people who aren't familiar

00:15:43.880 what the prisoner's dilemma is, Prude?

00:15:47.480 Sure.

00:15:48.200 So yeah,

00:15:48.680 it's probably the most common thing you hear

00:15:50.800 when talking about game theory.

00:15:52.540 It's,

00:15:52.960 I guess the best definition would just be

00:15:55.980 a paradox of sorts

00:15:58.080 in when you're trying to understand decisions or game theory

00:16:00.660 in which two individuals are acting in their own self-interest

00:16:03.760 do not produce the best outcome.

00:16:06.700 So usually it's something along the lines of,

00:16:09.140 you know,

00:16:10.320 two bank robbers have been arrested.

00:16:12.140 They're interrogated in separate rooms.

00:16:13.680 There's no other witnesses.

00:16:14.920 They just need to convince the other guy

00:16:16.600 to rat the other one out.

00:16:19.160 And so each bank robber doesn't know

00:16:20.920 what the other guy is going to say

00:16:22.060 and you're forced to cooperate

00:16:23.260 or either remain silent or defect to the gang

00:16:27.160 and, you know, testify for prosecution.

00:16:29.400 And so you've got odds on,

00:16:31.340 you know,

00:16:31.500 what are the possible outcomes for jail time?

00:16:34.020 And that's sort of the way to do it.

00:16:35.880 And so what Nick is referencing here

00:16:37.660 is what's known as a reiterated

00:16:39.700 or iterated prisoner's dilemma

00:16:41.420 in which it is just repeated over and over again.

00:16:44.760 And when we repeat games like these,

00:16:46.840 it gives you an opportunity to understand

00:16:48.680 the behavior of your opponent.

00:16:53.260 So I'm playing against the same guy over and over.

00:16:56.200 And obviously what Nick is referring to here,

00:16:58.940 of course,

00:16:59.200 is our party system.

00:17:00.240 Democrats and Republicans are playing a reiterated game

00:17:02.700 of the prisoner's dilemma over and over.

00:17:04.020 And if you know anything about the,

00:17:06.460 you know,

00:17:07.000 an iterated prisoner's dilemma,

00:17:09.100 you know that the end result most of the time,

00:17:13.840 or at least what most literature will tell you,

00:17:15.320 is that they just start cooperating.

00:17:17.060 They start giving each other

00:17:19.080 the most optimal way

00:17:20.440 to both of them get a benefit.

00:17:22.740 Yeah.

00:17:23.360 The big thing is the iteration here, right?

00:17:26.420 Because in a single instance

00:17:27.780 of the prisoner's dilemma,

00:17:28.940 like you said,

00:17:29.520 both guys can stay silent,

00:17:32.300 which helps them both out,

00:17:34.720 but isn't the optimal choice for both.

00:17:37.880 One can defect,

00:17:39.080 and then they get all the benefit,

00:17:40.340 and the other guy gets all the downside.

00:17:43.060 But obviously,

00:17:44.320 somebody has to lose in that scenario.

00:17:46.460 Or if they both defect simultaneously,

00:17:48.600 they both lose.

00:17:50.640 And so,

00:17:51.280 you know,

00:17:51.580 the cooperation,

00:17:52.720 in one instance,

00:17:55.500 doesn't necessarily matter

00:17:56.760 because you don't,

00:17:58.060 you didn't know going in.

00:17:59.660 But over time,

00:18:00.380 if you iterate on this game,

00:18:01.840 if you play it multiple times,

00:18:03.460 then like you're saying,

00:18:04.160 you can build this pattern of behavior.

00:18:07.000 And what he talks about here,

00:18:08.220 where you reach this equilibrium,

00:18:10.640 what he's talking about

00:18:11.500 is the optimum strategy here

00:18:12.920 is tit for tat.

00:18:13.960 That's the best strategy

00:18:15.080 in an iterated version

00:18:18.140 of the prisoner's dilemma.

00:18:19.580 It means basically,

00:18:20.860 like you said,

00:18:21.400 you cooperate,

00:18:22.780 and then if somebody defects,

00:18:25.120 you punish them immediately.

00:18:27.120 And if they correct their behavior,

00:18:29.800 then you go back to cooperating.

00:18:31.820 And if they don't,

00:18:32.720 then you continue to punish them.

00:18:35.180 And that's the optimum way

00:18:36.900 for this to work.

00:18:38.240 That's how you get that equilibrium.

00:18:39.900 That's how society can kind of work

00:18:41.660 for everybody, right?

00:18:43.160 Yes,

00:18:43.640 you probably could have gotten

00:18:44.840 the maximum benefit

00:18:46.060 if you defected.

00:18:47.520 So if I,

00:18:48.200 you know,

00:18:48.640 if I want something in a store

00:18:50.660 and I could get away

00:18:51.920 with stealing it

00:18:52.700 on a regular basis

00:18:53.840 without any consequences,

00:18:55.620 I could just defect,

00:18:56.620 defect,

00:18:56.920 defect,

00:18:57.080 that would be like

00:18:58.100 the best thing for me.

00:18:59.660 But ultimately in society,

00:19:02.020 it's better if we cooperate

00:19:03.380 on a regular basis.

00:19:04.460 If everyone's just defecting

00:19:05.800 all the time,

00:19:06.880 that doesn't ultimately

00:19:08.400 benefit the society.

00:19:09.400 So the thing that makes

00:19:10.180 the society,

00:19:11.020 as you say,

00:19:11.440 consolidate here

00:19:12.440 is adopting the strategy

00:19:14.940 of we,

00:19:16.040 we constantly

00:19:17.400 are cooperating

00:19:18.560 unless someone defects,

00:19:19.600 we punish that person

00:19:20.580 immediately

00:19:21.260 and then we go back

00:19:22.820 to cooperating

00:19:23.480 as much as possible.

00:19:25.160 And so that's really

00:19:26.060 the equilibrium

00:19:27.740 that tit for tat strategy

00:19:29.180 is really what sets you up

00:19:30.640 long term

00:19:31.940 for a society

00:19:33.220 that is working together.

00:19:36.880 Yep.

00:19:38.000 All right.

00:19:38.400 So let's continue

00:19:39.580 with our essay here.

00:19:41.100 Chicken is very different.

00:19:42.980 Someone blinks first. 0.91

00:19:44.340 So the trust, trust, mutual,

00:19:46.660 mutual optimum

00:19:49.120 of RPD

00:19:51.020 is subtracted in advance.

00:19:52.840 So in a game of chicken,

00:19:53.980 we don't have this,

00:19:56.080 you know,

00:19:57.240 we can work together option.

00:19:59.180 Somebody has to lose.

00:20:00.620 There is no cooperation

00:20:02.060 for mutual benefit.

00:20:03.280 So party politics

00:20:04.440 is not the prisoner's dilemma.

00:20:06.340 It's chicken.

00:20:07.440 And it has,

00:20:07.940 so it has very different rules

00:20:09.400 rather than the four

00:20:10.980 possible outcomes

00:20:12.020 of a single round

00:20:13.100 of prisoner's dilemma.

00:20:14.340 A and B do okay.

00:20:16.260 A and A wins,

00:20:17.300 B loses.

00:20:18.300 B wins,

00:20:18.800 A loses.

00:20:19.500 And A and B both lose.

00:20:21.220 There are just three possibilities.

00:20:23.340 Either A wins and B loses.

00:20:25.120 B wins or A loses.

00:20:26.560 Or they both lose extremely.

00:20:29.380 In chicken,

00:20:30.360 it's the avoidance

00:20:31.400 of outcome three

00:20:32.720 rather than the non-existent chance

00:20:34.880 of the prisoner's dilemma

00:20:37.260 outcome one

00:20:38.340 that moderates behavior.

00:20:40.080 And then asymmetrically

00:20:42.060 because someone always

00:20:43.120 blinks first.

00:20:44.040 So what he's saying here

00:20:45.580 is that in the prisoner's dilemma,

00:20:47.340 there is the option

00:20:48.400 to work together.

00:20:50.420 There's the option

00:20:50.960 to go ahead

00:20:52.440 and cooperate.

00:20:54.040 And that,

00:20:54.820 because of that option

00:20:56.040 being available

00:20:56.980 and that,

00:20:57.820 even though you could have

00:20:58.700 a better outcome

00:20:59.420 if you won,

00:21:01.120 that the,

00:21:01.920 that over time

00:21:03.020 you want to cooperate

00:21:03.800 as much as possible

00:21:04.500 because that gives

00:21:05.320 the best outcome

00:21:06.280 for everyone

00:21:06.740 that creates

00:21:07.880 an incentive structure

00:21:08.780 for cooperation.

00:21:10.540 But in the game of chicken,

00:21:11.640 there is no incentive structure

00:21:12.960 for cooperation.

00:21:14.140 The only incentive

00:21:15.340 is really to avoid

00:21:16.640 the disastrous outcome

00:21:18.440 of both people

00:21:19.600 failing to blink.

00:21:20.940 So if you're playing

00:21:21.640 the classic car game,

00:21:23.560 you know,

00:21:23.840 you've seen in the movies,

00:21:25.160 I'm sure,

00:21:25.920 maybe you've done it

00:21:26.820 in real life

00:21:27.280 if you have,

00:21:28.120 congratulations,

00:21:29.140 glad you're still with us.

00:21:30.340 But the two cars

00:21:31.280 are driving towards each other.

00:21:32.500 The worst outcome

00:21:33.700 for everybody

00:21:34.740 is that both cars

00:21:36.420 hit each other 0.98

00:21:37.380 because then people die.

00:21:39.300 So that,

00:21:39.720 so the worst outcome

00:21:40.720 is the lose-lose.

00:21:42.800 But in order to avoid that,

00:21:45.060 one of the parties

00:21:45.920 has to lose.

00:21:47.260 There is no,

00:21:48.040 we can cooperate

00:21:48.780 and avoid this outcome.

00:21:50.300 So it's all about

00:21:51.620 who can force the other guy

00:21:53.060 to blink

00:21:53.920 because they're more scared

00:21:55.380 of the disastrous outcome.

00:21:57.340 There is no,

00:21:57.880 everybody wins.

00:21:58.880 There's only the avoidance

00:22:00.980 of everyone losing.

00:22:03.420 Yeah,

00:22:03.860 and I think that's the thing

00:22:04.800 that we're going to look at here

00:22:05.640 when we start talking about

00:22:06.860 our political cases.

00:22:09.100 We talk so often

00:22:09.880 about beautiful losers. 1.00

00:22:11.240 We talk so often

00:22:12.120 about which side

00:22:13.540 doesn't police the radicals

00:22:15.180 and which side

00:22:15.800 is only a stepping stone

00:22:17.020 for things to move leftward.

00:22:18.780 And I mean,

00:22:19.300 Nick is just laying this out

00:22:20.840 in game theory terms.

00:22:22.540 This is that

00:22:22.980 we already know

00:22:24.000 who blinks

00:22:25.060 every single time

00:22:26.420 or at least 90%

00:22:27.540 of the time.

00:22:28.740 And again,

00:22:29.360 that the decision about,

00:22:30.580 you know,

00:22:31.360 who wants to blink first

00:22:32.540 or who wants to run

00:22:33.220 into each other.

00:22:33.940 This is how the,

00:22:34.640 what we often get to call

00:22:36.120 the cold civil war

00:22:37.600 plays out

00:22:38.400 is that we play a good game.

00:22:41.040 We play a good fight,

00:22:41.900 but you know,

00:22:42.400 I'm going to blink every time.

00:22:43.500 It's kind of this

00:22:44.300 Charlie Brown

00:22:46.160 in the football situation.

00:22:47.680 You know,

00:22:47.800 Charlie wants to do it.

00:22:48.720 We put up a good show

00:22:49.560 and at the end of the day,

00:22:50.460 Lucy's always going to pull

00:22:51.520 the football right away

00:22:52.720 and we're going to watch

00:22:53.280 someone land flat

00:22:54.120 on their back

00:22:54.680 and get the wind

00:22:55.880 knocked right out of them.

00:22:56.820 And I mean,

00:22:57.040 this is the dynamic

00:22:58.000 of our political system

00:22:59.620 as is.

00:23:00.140 And it's funny

00:23:00.780 that we talk about

00:23:01.460 third parties earlier

00:23:02.460 at the beginning there,

00:23:03.280 Orrin,

00:23:03.600 because in a lot of respects,

00:23:04.820 Trump in his own right

00:23:05.660 kind of sounds like

00:23:06.440 the third party

00:23:07.100 because,

00:23:07.920 you know,

00:23:08.080 he rises to the top.

00:23:09.480 He beats all these

00:23:10.000 other candidates.

00:23:11.100 And still to this day,

00:23:12.020 you have quite a huge

00:23:13.000 never Trump faction

00:23:14.020 that are by all means

00:23:15.220 Democrats,

00:23:15.700 but they still call

00:23:16.620 themselves Republicans.

00:23:17.760 Even if you want to say

00:23:18.700 the Republicans in name only,

00:23:20.440 it does illustrate that,

00:23:21.620 you know,

00:23:21.780 he really is this,

00:23:22.940 this,

00:23:23.340 it's own third force

00:23:24.320 that has been bubbling,

00:23:25.420 you know,

00:23:26.820 the resentment of a lot

00:23:27.860 of just like white

00:23:28.600 middle America

00:23:29.260 that has been talked

00:23:30.700 about from everyone

00:23:31.480 from,

00:23:31.820 from Sam Francis

00:23:32.780 to even Sam Huntington

00:23:34.680 about just like,

00:23:35.520 who are we?

00:23:36.180 And that kind of question.

00:23:37.100 And here we are,

00:23:38.280 someone doesn't want

00:23:39.100 to blink.

00:23:40.900 Yeah,

00:23:41.520 that really is the introduction

00:23:43.120 for the first time

00:23:44.440 of someone on the right

00:23:46.200 who is willing

00:23:47.720 to play the game

00:23:48.720 in a manner

00:23:49.860 in which they could

00:23:50.620 actually win.

00:23:52.000 And,

00:23:52.520 you know,

00:23:53.160 we talk about that

00:23:53.980 all the time.

00:23:54.620 We,

00:23:54.800 you know,

00:23:54.940 we make jokes about,

00:23:56.740 like you said,

00:23:57.360 the beautiful losers

00:23:58.880 and memes

00:23:59.500 about the way

00:24:00.240 that conservatives

00:24:01.620 are always driven

00:24:02.760 to concede these points.

00:24:04.520 But the nice thing

00:24:05.120 about this essay

00:24:05.660 is it really lays it out

00:24:06.920 in a game-theoretic manner

00:24:09.260 in a way that maybe,

00:24:10.660 you know,

00:24:10.880 it's not,

00:24:11.360 we joke about it,

00:24:12.300 people will recognize

00:24:13.140 this phenomenon,

00:24:14.280 but here we can understand

00:24:15.680 what the incentive structure

00:24:16.780 is behind it

00:24:17.620 and importantly,

00:24:18.540 like you said,

00:24:19.100 why Trump breaks

00:24:20.400 that incentive structure.

00:24:21.340 I think that will be

00:24:22.380 very important

00:24:22.920 as we go along here.

00:24:24.260 So,

00:24:24.740 back to our essay.

00:24:25.460 No less importantly,

00:24:27.140 the time structure

00:24:28.020 of chicken is inverted.

00:24:30.000 In the reiterated

00:24:30.960 prisoner's dilemma,

00:24:32.240 the agents learn

00:24:33.240 from successive decisions

00:24:34.500 and from their mere prospect.

00:24:37.500 Each decision is punctual,

00:24:39.840 boleyn,

00:24:40.600 and communicatively isolated.

00:24:43.400 Boleyn's a fun word there.

00:24:45.000 Can you explain that

00:24:45.720 for people who are unfamiliar

00:24:46.620 with that language?

00:24:47.760 Sure.

00:24:48.940 Boolean or booleyn,

00:24:50.740 it's basically just

00:24:52.300 having two values,

00:24:54.440 just true and false.

00:24:56.040 Sometimes also a way

00:24:58.000 for just logical propositions,

00:24:59.860 a way to keep going down,

00:25:01.920 yes and no,

00:25:03.040 or what if answers,

00:25:04.700 if yes,

00:25:05.220 if no.

00:25:06.860 In chicken,

00:25:07.860 the decision is mutual

00:25:09.300 and quantitative

00:25:10.420 and anticipated

00:25:11.380 by a strategically dynamic

00:25:12.940 introduction,

00:25:14.520 an interactive process

00:25:15.760 in advance of the decision,

00:25:18.000 which is richly communicative

00:25:19.500 and complex

00:25:20.480 and even educational.

00:25:21.980 In addition,

00:25:23.300 when compared to

00:25:24.220 prisoner's dilemma,

00:25:25.460 chicken reiteration

00:25:26.440 is remarkably complicated.

00:25:29.440 So he's saying

00:25:30.340 that this is a situation

00:25:31.380 in which the decisions

00:25:32.600 are much more complicated

00:25:34.680 than they necessarily are

00:25:36.640 with the prisoner's dilemma.

00:25:38.240 Consider the classic chicken game.

00:25:42.460 Two drivers accelerate

00:25:43.900 towards each other

00:25:44.900 and the one who swerves

00:25:46.740 or blinks loses.

00:25:48.440 If neither swerves,

00:25:50.000 both lose,

00:25:51.080 which is worse.

00:25:51.820 The lead up is everything

00:25:54.860 and the decision itself

00:25:56.260 is a matter of speed

00:25:57.780 and timing.

00:25:58.960 So it is specifically

00:25:59.840 non-Boleen,

00:26:01.380 I'm sure,

00:26:02.020 whichever way

00:26:02.660 we're supposed to say it properly,

00:26:03.960 win rather than

00:26:05.440 a Boleen witch. 0.92

00:26:08.180 The question is not

00:26:09.460 will the other player defect,

00:26:11.060 but rather

00:26:11.420 how far will they go?

00:26:13.640 So he's saying

00:26:14.160 that this is a very radical

00:26:15.400 change in the rules

00:26:16.920 because it's not just,

00:26:18.220 okay,

00:26:18.900 is this person

00:26:19.740 going to defect or not?

00:26:22.420 It's not,

00:26:23.020 okay,

00:26:23.460 we both come together,

00:26:24.520 we have to make the decision

00:26:25.440 at the same time.

00:26:26.860 Are you defecting

00:26:27.960 or not defecting?

00:26:28.960 It's very clear

00:26:29.840 that that's all laid out

00:26:32.260 on the table.

00:26:33.300 In chicken,

00:26:34.460 and in our party politics,

00:26:36.680 which is of course

00:26:37.320 what we're,

00:26:38.820 this is analogous to,

00:26:40.500 both players

00:26:41.520 want to swerve.

00:26:43.120 They're going to swerve

00:26:44.360 or die.

00:26:45.420 The only question is

00:26:46.260 how long can you lock

00:26:47.800 the other person into this?

00:26:49.000 It's about timing.

00:26:50.280 It's not what kind

00:26:51.280 of decision

00:26:51.800 you're going to make.

00:26:53.360 Will you make the decision

00:26:54.440 first and therefore lose?

00:26:56.560 Or are you willing

00:26:57.560 to commit as long

00:26:58.520 as possible?

00:26:59.400 Can you get the other guy

00:27:00.620 to defect

00:27:01.360 before you're willing

00:27:02.500 to do so?

00:27:03.800 That's really

00:27:04.420 the key concept.

00:27:05.860 It's a decision

00:27:06.960 of timing

00:27:07.880 somewhere along

00:27:09.580 that continuum

00:27:10.760 rather than a decision

00:27:12.160 of defect

00:27:13.260 or go ahead

00:27:14.600 and cooperate.

00:27:15.560 There is no cooperate option.

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00:27:33.080 Yeah,

00:27:33.520 and I mean,

00:27:33.780 this is what we see

00:27:34.540 all the time about,

00:27:36.160 I mean,

00:27:36.420 this is where you can

00:27:36.840 throw in patronage networks,

00:27:38.100 you know,

00:27:38.980 how much of damage

00:27:40.660 can I do,

00:27:41.260 say,

00:27:41.400 to federal credibility

00:27:42.280 or to my party

00:27:44.040 or to my enemies,

00:27:46.280 which is what you really

00:27:47.060 want to do

00:27:47.540 in a game of politics

00:27:48.440 is to punish enemies

00:27:49.820 and reward friends.

00:27:50.680 How much of my rewarding

00:27:52.140 and punishing

00:27:52.660 can I do

00:27:53.180 before I push the system

00:27:54.600 to some kind of default?

00:27:56.280 I noticed in the footnote

00:27:57.380 in the page before,

00:27:58.380 this is partially

00:27:59.600 in reference to

00:28:01.140 the debt ceiling crisis

00:28:04.460 in 2013.

00:28:06.220 Man,

00:28:06.660 that's a blast

00:28:07.680 from the past

00:28:08.300 when you would talk

00:28:09.080 about fiscal conservatism

00:28:11.200 and the debt ceiling,

00:28:12.040 good lord.

00:28:13.080 Almost seems quaint

00:28:14.240 at this point.

00:28:14.720 It seems quaint

00:28:15.660 and it seems so like,

00:28:17.300 ah,

00:28:18.240 you want to pop

00:28:19.000 a member berry in

00:28:19.980 and then just feel

00:28:20.660 nostalgic for Jack Kemp,

00:28:22.280 good lord.

00:28:23.340 Simpler times.

00:28:24.500 Simpler times,

00:28:25.400 simpler times,

00:28:26.060 despite the fact

00:28:26.620 that the fiscal stuff

00:28:27.480 still matters

00:28:28.040 and we're over

00:28:28.520 like 30 trillion in debt.

00:28:29.900 Don't ignore that

00:28:30.820 mountain of garbage

00:28:31.700 for a minute.

00:28:32.900 No,

00:28:33.100 but I mean,

00:28:33.420 and here what you're seeing

00:28:34.280 is the,

00:28:35.260 how far can I go

00:28:36.520 before I can ensure

00:28:37.820 I don't hit the other car

00:28:39.020 or hit the other person

00:28:39.820 and everyone dies?

00:28:41.240 And that's kind of

00:28:41.940 what you're seeing

00:28:42.440 is how far can I

00:28:43.960 wreck the system

00:28:45.860 without the superstructure

00:28:47.380 being so permanently

00:28:48.540 ruined and damaged

00:28:49.600 that I can still

00:28:50.600 get mine

00:28:51.900 and enjoy

00:28:52.820 the spoils of war?

00:28:54.260 Because I mean,

00:28:54.640 Nick will write

00:28:55.220 in later essays

00:28:56.000 that democracy

00:28:57.500 is all about

00:28:58.700 the getting

00:28:59.920 everything that I can

00:29:00.920 because I don't know

00:29:01.520 if I'm ever going

00:29:02.240 to be in power

00:29:02.860 again tomorrow.

00:29:03.880 So we do that

00:29:04.680 and this only encourages

00:29:05.720 the art of the question,

00:29:07.960 how far will they go?

00:29:09.180 And it is an art,

00:29:09.980 it is a science

00:29:10.760 because we can figure out

00:29:12.200 in a lot of ways

00:29:13.360 through game theory

00:29:14.100 and a lot of these

00:29:14.600 NRX types will tell you 1.00

00:29:15.860 is that,

00:29:16.340 you know,

00:29:16.420 you can really map

00:29:17.180 this out logically

00:29:17.920 and even prior

00:29:19.240 to their works

00:29:20.140 coming on the land,

00:29:21.040 on the ground,

00:29:21.780 you can see it

00:29:22.280 in international relations

00:29:23.380 theory as well

00:29:24.120 with say like

00:29:24.640 the bargaining model

00:29:26.220 of war

00:29:26.940 or rational choice

00:29:28.020 theory being a big

00:29:28.840 part of it here

00:29:29.540 and so now you get

00:29:30.380 to see how the sausage

00:29:31.980 gets made about

00:29:32.640 how far will they go

00:29:33.780 in respects to

00:29:34.860 what kind of

00:29:35.880 concessions can I get,

00:29:37.980 what kind of pork

00:29:38.880 can I give to my friends

00:29:40.120 in my particular district

00:29:41.360 and how much

00:29:42.620 can I get to cater

00:29:43.840 to a specific crowd

00:29:44.860 of extremists

00:29:45.600 while at the same time

00:29:46.860 watch knowing

00:29:47.560 that my enemy

00:29:48.220 will always blink first,

00:29:50.100 in this case

00:29:50.640 the Republicans

00:29:51.240 whether they blink

00:29:52.040 first on immigration

00:29:53.480 or on crime

00:29:55.420 or on a myriad

00:29:56.520 of other issues

00:29:57.220 because that's

00:29:57.680 how the game

00:29:58.080 gets played.

00:29:59.380 Yeah and we can

00:29:59.820 really see this

00:30:00.440 in every area,

00:30:01.640 right?

00:30:01.860 We can see this

00:30:02.640 with the way

00:30:03.080 that the system

00:30:03.700 has stretched

00:30:04.900 credibility

00:30:05.560 on a regular basis.

00:30:06.660 In fact,

00:30:07.120 that's probably

00:30:07.800 the thing that is

00:30:08.780 what makes everything

00:30:10.180 feel like it's

00:30:11.580 going to come apart

00:30:12.260 more than anything else

00:30:13.320 is this dynamic

00:30:16.120 was always happening,

00:30:17.280 this game of chicken

00:30:17.940 was always occurring

00:30:18.960 but it was always

00:30:20.040 occurring within

00:30:20.800 a certain safety level,

00:30:22.960 right?

00:30:23.240 Yes,

00:30:23.560 the Democrats

00:30:24.000 were always pushing

00:30:24.720 things a little further

00:30:26.200 than the conservatives,

00:30:27.580 the Republicans

00:30:28.080 and that's why

00:30:28.840 they would win

00:30:29.300 over and over again

00:30:30.060 because they were

00:30:30.800 willing to stretch

00:30:31.640 and manipulate the system.

00:30:33.240 They didn't care

00:30:33.940 as much about

00:30:34.860 it, you know,

00:30:35.880 keeping and perpetuating it

00:30:37.200 so they were willing

00:30:38.360 to play a little faster

00:30:39.520 and a little looser

00:30:40.260 but it was always still

00:30:41.420 inside certain tolerances.

00:30:43.400 We still knew that,

00:30:44.300 you know,

00:30:44.460 you couldn't do

00:30:45.760 certain things.

00:30:47.020 There were certain

00:30:47.540 credibilities

00:30:49.360 you didn't want

00:30:49.840 to put on the table,

00:30:51.180 certain areas

00:30:51.980 you didn't want

00:30:52.420 to play this game with

00:30:53.680 but the thing

00:30:54.820 that makes everything

00:30:55.720 feel really unstable

00:30:56.720 now is that

00:30:57.440 this dynamic

00:30:58.140 that always existed,

00:30:59.900 this game of chicken

00:31:00.580 that was always there

00:31:02.420 when it came

00:31:03.040 to the dynamics

00:31:03.780 of partisan politics

00:31:04.780 in the United States

00:31:05.640 has now moved

00:31:07.060 into spheres

00:31:08.180 that it was not

00:31:09.220 supposed to touch,

00:31:10.120 right?

00:31:10.340 It's in public health,

00:31:12.040 it's in the military.

00:31:13.560 Not that these things

00:31:14.400 weren't always political

00:31:15.720 to some extent

00:31:16.780 because there is

00:31:17.420 no such thing

00:31:17.920 as a neutral institution

00:31:19.040 but the degree

00:31:21.700 to which

00:31:22.560 they're willing

00:31:23.480 to play this game,

00:31:24.360 they're willing

00:31:24.760 to push it to the limit

00:31:25.700 has become

00:31:26.800 more and more extreme.

00:31:28.920 That's why we get

00:31:30.160 the total state.

00:31:31.040 That's the big part

00:31:32.080 of the total state

00:31:32.840 is politics has to move

00:31:34.500 into every one

00:31:35.100 of these spheres

00:31:35.820 and so now

00:31:36.860 that game of chicken

00:31:37.620 isn't just,

00:31:38.460 you know,

00:31:38.720 the debt ceiling somewhere,

00:31:40.320 it's whether or not

00:31:41.380 you get healthcare

00:31:42.300 at all

00:31:42.860 whether or not

00:31:43.580 the military

00:31:44.800 would expel you

00:31:48.000 for having

00:31:48.560 the wrong belief system

00:31:49.780 or, you know,

00:31:51.080 for being a pro-life

00:31:52.080 demonstrator,

00:31:52.620 you could become

00:31:53.040 an enemy of the state.

00:31:54.140 These are just areas

00:31:55.040 that they were not

00:31:56.400 willing to push things to,

00:31:57.500 they were not willing

00:31:58.080 to push this game

00:32:00.060 of chicken

00:32:00.380 into all of these

00:32:01.660 different zones

00:32:02.500 and now it's there

00:32:03.660 and that's why

00:32:04.200 everything feels

00:32:05.160 very unstable

00:32:06.240 because we're constantly

00:32:07.920 in this game

00:32:09.240 of kind of

00:32:10.240 annihilation

00:32:11.200 negotiation

00:32:12.000 but we're doing

00:32:13.060 it across

00:32:13.580 every sphere

00:32:14.820 inside the United States

00:32:16.760 right now

00:32:17.220 not just some of these

00:32:18.680 that it used to be

00:32:19.820 confined to.

00:32:21.440 Yeah,

00:32:21.960 and I think this is why

00:32:22.680 we've kind of seen

00:32:23.560 some of the richest

00:32:24.340 people in the world

00:32:25.400 for who all intents

00:32:26.420 and purposes sound

00:32:27.460 like 90s Democrats

00:32:28.640 or just moderate

00:32:30.180 pragmatists

00:32:31.240 like Elon Musk

00:32:32.280 say that,

00:32:32.880 you know,

00:32:33.060 the Democrats

00:32:34.100 have gone bananas

00:32:35.180 essentially.

00:32:35.900 They're just like,

00:32:36.340 wait a second,

00:32:36.860 these things are

00:32:37.480 civilizational risks.

00:32:39.260 I can't possibly

00:32:40.320 continue to exist

00:32:41.680 as a human being

00:32:42.540 in a civilization

00:32:43.460 if this maintains

00:32:44.780 itself.

00:32:45.200 And we just saw,

00:32:45.940 I think someone

00:32:46.300 was recently nominated

00:32:47.360 or someone that

00:32:48.360 would be part

00:32:48.860 of a future

00:32:49.460 Harris administration

00:32:51.100 that wants to

00:32:52.380 queer nuclear

00:32:54.440 strategy

00:32:55.580 and deterrence.

00:32:57.000 You know,

00:32:57.280 and America's

00:32:58.020 nuclear triad

00:32:58.800 has a myriad

00:32:59.580 of issues

00:33:00.240 that desperately

00:33:00.840 needs to be

00:33:01.560 updated in order

00:33:02.420 for any sort

00:33:03.460 of semblance

00:33:03.840 of nuclear

00:33:04.240 deterrence to work.

00:33:05.340 But now,

00:33:05.760 let's just throw

00:33:06.300 someone in there

00:33:07.040 who only knows

00:33:08.540 how to play

00:33:11.160 catamite

00:33:11.840 with other

00:33:12.300 phallic objects.

00:33:13.060 It's like,

00:33:13.480 no,

00:33:13.740 nuclear missiles

00:33:14.320 are not the

00:33:14.820 things that you

00:33:15.220 need to be

00:33:15.500 playing with.

00:33:16.500 And instead,

00:33:17.080 that is a

00:33:17.420 civilizational risk

00:33:18.440 that severely

00:33:19.080 threatens national

00:33:20.080 security posture.

00:33:21.480 But again,

00:33:21.920 these are things

00:33:22.680 that we haven't

00:33:23.720 gone through

00:33:24.460 before.

00:33:25.500 And so now,

00:33:25.880 even moderates

00:33:26.820 are like,

00:33:27.120 well,

00:33:27.180 this is absolutely

00:33:28.160 insane.

00:33:29.420 To where even,

00:33:30.100 you know,

00:33:30.600 Andreas and Horowitz,

00:33:31.720 who endorsed

00:33:32.500 Hillary Clinton

00:33:33.200 in 2016,

00:33:34.640 primarily over

00:33:35.260 immigration,

00:33:36.260 has now come

00:33:37.100 in to be on

00:33:38.080 Team Trump

00:33:38.880 to simply say,

00:33:40.140 Harris and this

00:33:41.060 Biden administration,

00:33:42.180 we cannot continue

00:33:43.240 the way that we're

00:33:43.840 doing.

00:33:44.620 And so even when

00:33:45.340 the wealthy

00:33:45.820 and the powerful

00:33:46.480 who nominally

00:33:47.300 are usually

00:33:47.780 very pro-Democrat,

00:33:48.960 I mean,

00:33:49.100 everyone has probably

00:33:49.660 seen that graph

00:33:50.440 of what kind

00:33:50.920 of businesses

00:33:51.460 and tech sectors

00:33:53.280 and finance

00:33:53.900 support which

00:33:54.580 political parties

00:33:55.320 and candidates.

00:33:55.920 And we saw how

00:33:56.360 it was overwhelmingly

00:33:57.100 blue in 2020,

00:33:58.420 has been for

00:33:59.180 most of our lifetimes.

00:34:00.720 And now all of a sudden

00:34:01.320 they're like,

00:34:01.640 well,

00:34:01.700 this is clearly too far.

00:34:03.220 And the swerve

00:34:04.820 that we're trying

00:34:05.760 to see play off

00:34:07.200 here in this game,

00:34:08.340 no,

00:34:08.800 if you swerve,

00:34:09.560 you're still going

00:34:10.060 to hit the road sign

00:34:11.280 right there,

00:34:11.920 and then a lot of people

00:34:12.980 are going to die. 0.95

00:34:14.400 And that is basically

00:34:15.240 what we're kind of

00:34:16.480 witnessing here,

00:34:17.380 is just basic questions

00:34:18.440 of,

00:34:19.120 well,

00:34:19.260 this is not

00:34:20.100 civilizational at all.

00:34:22.220 And I mean,

00:34:22.900 sure,

00:34:23.380 the left is openly

00:34:24.160 happy to tell you

00:34:25.500 that civilization

00:34:26.080 is racist, 0.85

00:34:26.920 white supremacist,

00:34:27.580 or whatever,

00:34:28.520 but,

00:34:29.080 you know,

00:34:29.420 there are things

00:34:29.920 that we take

00:34:30.360 basically for granted,

00:34:31.640 such as,

00:34:32.180 electricity,

00:34:34.160 or a foundational

00:34:35.220 medical system,

00:34:35.980 or a standing military

00:34:36.940 that can defend its borders.

00:34:38.200 And all that has been

00:34:39.000 essentially erased

00:34:39.760 under this administration

00:34:40.700 and by the left

00:34:41.440 for the last century

00:34:42.360 that this is sort of

00:34:43.740 the game that we're

00:34:44.300 dealing with now.

00:34:44.980 It's like,

00:34:45.280 huh,

00:34:45.460 this post-war consensus

00:34:46.520 is actually destroying

00:34:47.540 Western civilization.

00:34:48.960 We might want to

00:34:49.520 speak up about it

00:34:50.300 lest we are unable

00:34:51.680 to build our rockets

00:34:52.520 and get out of here. 0.98

00:34:53.280 Yeah,

00:34:54.360 it is always fun

00:34:55.340 when they list

00:34:55.920 all the things

00:34:56.480 that make civilization

00:34:57.320 work.

00:34:57.960 They're like,

00:34:58.260 this is white supremacy.

00:34:59.380 It's like,

00:35:00.000 okay,

00:35:00.280 whose case are you

00:35:00.960 making here,

00:35:01.460 buddy?

00:35:02.000 Like,

00:35:02.360 you might get

00:35:05.100 some people

00:35:05.380 not along with you,

00:35:06.340 but I don't think

00:35:06.860 that's what you're

00:35:07.620 looking for.

00:35:09.180 It's not the audience

00:35:10.140 you want.

00:35:11.660 Yeah,

00:35:12.140 they heard the whistle,

00:35:13.500 you know,

00:35:13.840 but I don't think

00:35:14.560 that's what you meant.

00:35:15.620 All right,

00:35:16.080 let's go over

00:35:16.900 to our essay

00:35:18.840 again here.

00:35:19.320 Thomas Schelling

00:35:20.200 has made an intellectual

00:35:21.060 specialism out of chicken

00:35:23.640 and his understanding

00:35:24.860 of the classic version

00:35:25.620 has sharpened

00:35:26.320 by the concept

00:35:26.980 of the credible commitment.

00:35:28.400 How far will you go?

00:35:30.020 How could a player

00:35:31.280 ensure that his opponent

00:35:32.560 doesn't win?

00:35:33.800 The solution to this problem,

00:35:35.180 if produced in advance,

00:35:36.840 has the strategic value

00:35:37.880 of also maximizing

00:35:38.980 the chance

00:35:39.580 that the opponent

00:35:40.220 blinks first,

00:35:41.820 thus avoiding

00:35:42.340 the

00:35:42.880 pessimist

00:35:44.300 loss

00:35:44.820 outcome

00:35:46.280 and generating

00:35:48.300 a win.

00:35:49.260 Producing

00:35:49.660 a credible commitment

00:35:50.800 looks like this.

00:35:52.200 Upon climbing

00:35:52.740 into your car,

00:35:53.500 conspicuously consume

00:35:54.540 a bottle of vodka,

00:35:55.940 thus communicating

00:35:57.000 the fact that

00:35:57.680 your ability

00:35:58.360 to enact

00:35:58.880 a successful

00:35:59.520 last second swerve

00:36:01.240 is very seriously

00:36:02.840 impaired.

00:36:03.680 Your opponent

00:36:04.140 now knows

00:36:05.180 that even

00:36:06.520 were you inclined

00:36:07.540 to avoid

00:36:08.040 a mutual destruction

00:36:08.940 at the brink,

00:36:10.220 you might not

00:36:10.820 be able to do so.

00:36:11.920 Then,

00:36:12.480 once both cars

00:36:13.120 have accelerated

00:36:13.820 to a high speed,

00:36:15.280 rip out your steering wheel

00:36:16.380 and throw it out

00:36:16.920 the window.

00:36:17.360 It's extremely

00:36:18.320 important that

00:36:18.920 you do this

00:36:19.520 before your opponent

00:36:20.560 is able to.

00:36:21.600 That's what the

00:36:22.040 vodka was for.

00:36:23.240 Your communicated

00:36:23.940 commitment is now

00:36:24.940 absolute.

00:36:25.700 Your opponent

00:36:26.220 alone can swerve

00:36:28.020 its death

00:36:28.640 or glory.

00:36:29.820 And this is,

00:36:30.520 this is,

00:36:31.100 you know,

00:36:31.820 humorous,

00:36:32.980 obviously,

00:36:33.800 but it's also

00:36:34.580 not the worst

00:36:35.460 description of the

00:36:36.340 Democrats.

00:36:37.140 It's not the worst

00:36:38.060 description of the

00:36:39.080 left.

00:36:39.560 They have just

00:36:40.300 torn all of

00:36:42.340 the safety,

00:36:43.540 you know,

00:36:43.920 mechanisms off

00:36:44.940 of civilization.

00:36:46.280 They said,

00:36:46.620 there is just

00:36:46.980 no way

00:36:47.880 that we are

00:36:48.640 going to stop.

00:36:49.340 We have declared

00:36:50.160 everything an

00:36:51.040 existential threat.

00:36:52.400 You know,

00:36:52.580 Donald Trump is an

00:36:53.260 existential threat

00:36:54.000 to everything,

00:36:54.800 democracy,

00:36:55.460 our very way of

00:36:56.020 life,

00:36:56.380 blah,

00:36:56.460 blah,

00:36:56.580 blah.

00:36:57.120 We are fully

00:36:57.980 committed because

00:36:58.640 we have basically

00:36:59.700 explained that

00:37:01.820 there is no

00:37:02.380 going back.

00:37:03.200 Anything but

00:37:04.500 total victory

00:37:05.240 for the left

00:37:06.420 is utter obliteration.

00:37:07.840 And so they've

00:37:08.240 just thrown the

00:37:09.240 steering wheel out

00:37:09.840 of the car and

00:37:10.300 drank the bottle

00:37:10.800 of vodka.

00:37:11.200 And now they're

00:37:12.120 daring you because

00:37:13.020 you know,

00:37:13.980 there's just no

00:37:14.880 way that they

00:37:15.440 swerve.

00:37:16.140 And so they're

00:37:16.500 saying,

00:37:16.800 well,

00:37:16.960 you're the only

00:37:17.540 thing that could

00:37:18.000 keep us from

00:37:18.600 completely destroying

00:37:19.600 society.

00:37:20.300 So you better do

00:37:21.200 that because there's

00:37:21.920 no other option.

00:37:23.120 Yeah,

00:37:23.400 they've taken all

00:37:24.400 of they've,

00:37:24.940 they've gotten

00:37:25.380 their,

00:37:25.680 all their clients

00:37:26.500 into the backseat

00:37:27.580 of the car.

00:37:28.300 They have drunken

00:37:28.940 as much power as

00:37:29.840 they can.

00:37:30.280 They've ripped off

00:37:30.800 the steering wheel.

00:37:31.660 And then if

00:37:32.360 someone on their

00:37:33.400 moderate part of

00:37:34.640 the Democratic Party

00:37:35.440 is like,

00:37:35.820 hey,

00:37:35.920 maybe this is bad.

00:37:37.040 And then you'll

00:37:37.600 see a drunken

00:37:38.660 Kamala Harris,

00:37:39.600 as she often is in

00:37:40.440 her interviews

00:37:40.920 with these people

00:37:41.600 yell at you at

00:37:42.540 the back of the

00:37:43.140 seat saying,

00:37:43.660 would you like to

00:37:44.120 go back to 1950?

00:37:45.460 Would you like to

00:37:45.940 go back to a time

00:37:46.720 where it's okay to

00:37:47.460 be white and

00:37:48.040 like police will

00:37:48.860 arrest you?

00:37:49.600 No,

00:37:50.060 we are driving

00:37:50.920 hell or high

00:37:51.740 water.

00:37:52.240 And that is

00:37:52.600 exactly where we

00:37:53.440 are.

00:37:54.140 Isn't it great

00:37:54.560 that,

00:37:54.820 that the Democrat

00:37:55.800 strategy is

00:37:56.520 literally just

00:37:57.140 reading the,

00:37:58.620 the violinism

00:38:00.040 essay?

00:38:01.560 You know,

00:38:02.240 it's,

00:38:02.800 it's,

00:38:03.240 it's both

00:38:03.660 terrifying,

00:38:04.440 but also some,

00:38:05.540 it's one of those

00:38:06.220 like little victories

00:38:07.060 you're like,

00:38:07.520 huh,

00:38:07.780 look at that.

00:38:08.320 It turns out it

00:38:08.760 was right.

00:38:09.600 And then you're

00:38:10.020 realizing,

00:38:10.440 that if you were

00:38:10.920 to,

00:38:11.140 you know,

00:38:11.700 say anything

00:38:12.340 that you could

00:38:12.860 potentially get

00:38:13.580 arrested.

00:38:14.780 Yeah,

00:38:14.960 no,

00:38:15.280 it is,

00:38:16.000 it is wild

00:38:16.760 where they're

00:38:17.540 like,

00:38:18.140 they're not even

00:38:18.760 hiding the ball.

00:38:19.440 It's literally

00:38:19.780 just,

00:38:20.220 no,

00:38:20.460 we're,

00:38:20.760 we're going

00:38:21.100 to go exactly

00:38:21.940 along the

00:38:23.880 spandrel essays,

00:38:26.200 you know,

00:38:26.520 laying out

00:38:26.900 violinism.

00:38:27.720 If for any

00:38:28.520 moment we don't

00:38:29.240 have total control,

00:38:30.640 you know,

00:38:30.980 basically,

00:38:31.940 you know,

00:38:32.240 all of these

00:38:32.960 people who

00:38:33.480 otherwise would

00:38:33.980 not be on

00:38:34.480 top would,

00:38:35.680 will immediately

00:38:36.200 get dropped

00:38:36.720 to the bottom

00:38:37.240 of the pile

00:38:37.860 again.

00:38:38.300 So you have

00:38:39.360 to ride

00:38:40.540 or die

00:38:40.860 with us

00:38:41.260 in any

00:38:41.660 situation.

00:38:42.840 And we are

00:38:43.340 willing to blow

00:38:43.820 up the country

00:38:44.280 for this.

00:38:44.980 So conservatives,

00:38:46.120 you better back

00:38:46.840 off because if

00:38:48.180 you don't,

00:38:48.660 we will just,

00:38:50.180 our entire power

00:38:51.160 structure is built

00:38:51.940 on this.

00:38:53.140 There is no way

00:38:54.000 for us to

00:38:54.820 retreat from it.

00:38:56.340 So you're the

00:38:57.320 only one with

00:38:57.840 the retreat

00:38:58.200 option.

00:38:59.080 Otherwise,

00:38:59.500 we all die.

00:39:00.100 So you better

00:39:00.520 back away. 0.81

00:39:02.520 Yep.

00:39:03.820 All right.

00:39:04.480 Let's see.

00:39:05.160 The mainstream

00:39:05.880 near reactionary

00:39:06.940 account of

00:39:07.440 American political

00:39:08.140 history is that

00:39:09.320 of reiterated

00:39:10.160 chicken games

00:39:10.880 between

00:39:11.260 progressives

00:39:11.960 and conservatives

00:39:13.040 in which

00:39:13.620 conservatives

00:39:14.200 always swerve.

00:39:16.320 This analytical

00:39:17.320 framework,

00:39:18.100 despite its

00:39:18.660 crudity,

00:39:19.700 explains why

00:39:20.820 conservatives

00:39:21.480 consider their

00:39:22.720 opponents to be

00:39:23.580 intoxicated lunatics,

00:39:25.660 i.e.

00:39:26.140 winners,

00:39:26.720 while they are

00:39:27.600 sober and

00:39:28.440 responsible,

00:39:29.140 i.e.

00:39:29.800 losers.

00:39:30.660 As traditionally

00:39:31.280 positioned,

00:39:33.400 conservatives are

00:39:34.380 the principal

00:39:35.040 social stakeholders,

00:39:37.220 thus primarily

00:39:38.040 obligated to

00:39:38.940 avoid mutual

00:39:39.780 destruction.

00:39:40.760 It is essential

00:39:41.600 to conservatives

00:39:42.400 that it cannot

00:39:43.380 take things

00:39:44.140 domestically to

00:39:45.060 the brink.

00:39:46.080 It is

00:39:46.280 competence at

00:39:47.380 chicken is

00:39:48.360 the,

00:39:48.780 its incompetence

00:39:49.980 at chicken is

00:39:50.560 thus constitutional.

00:39:51.840 So what he's

00:39:52.440 saying here is

00:39:52.960 basically,

00:39:53.300 look,

00:39:53.700 conservatives are

00:39:54.300 the ones that

00:39:54.700 want to preserve

00:39:55.220 things.

00:39:55.680 They're the ones

00:39:56.020 that want to

00:39:56.360 preserve the

00:39:57.360 current order.

00:39:58.560 They're the ones

00:39:59.280 that are bought

00:40:00.980 into a certain

00:40:02.140 percentage of

00:40:03.620 the system.

00:40:04.620 And so therefore

00:40:05.260 they are obligated

00:40:06.580 to lose and

00:40:07.640 they just stand

00:40:08.300 there.

00:40:08.700 And isn't this

00:40:09.640 the most

00:40:10.920 consistent

00:40:11.520 conservative

00:40:12.200 response you

00:40:12.820 always see is

00:40:13.780 how could the

00:40:14.660 Democrats have

00:40:15.620 gone crazy?

00:40:16.260 The left has

00:40:16.880 gone crazy.

00:40:17.880 It's gone

00:40:18.420 bananas.

00:40:19.040 Can you believe

00:40:19.660 they're doing

00:40:20.040 this again?

00:40:20.740 Luckily,

00:40:21.000 we're the ones

00:40:21.840 that are just

00:40:22.400 so responsible

00:40:22.680 why do we

00:40:24.020 always have to

00:40:24.460 be the

00:40:25.080 responsible ones?

00:40:26.140 But ultimately

00:40:26.680 they still end

00:40:27.880 up doing what

00:40:28.880 the left wants.

00:40:29.860 And so the

00:40:30.600 left is like,

00:40:31.140 yeah,

00:40:31.440 no,

00:40:31.740 we're crazy.

00:40:32.280 We're going

00:40:32.480 to do whatever

00:40:33.480 we want to.

00:40:34.780 You can't

00:40:35.180 stop us.

00:40:35.760 You know,

00:40:35.920 the conservatives

00:40:36.720 sitting around,

00:40:37.520 where is Kamala

00:40:38.160 Harris's policy?

00:40:39.820 Where,

00:40:40.160 you know,

00:40:40.360 the facts don't

00:40:41.180 care about your

00:40:41.700 feelings.

00:40:42.400 None of this

00:40:42.860 works.

00:40:43.360 The conservatives

00:40:43.900 feel better

00:40:44.460 because they're

00:40:45.320 the adults.

00:40:46.080 They're the ones

00:40:46.640 who are responsible,

00:40:47.920 but ultimately

00:40:48.880 they just end

00:40:49.640 up,

00:40:50.020 you know,

00:40:50.380 facilitating

00:40:51.040 the left

00:40:52.280 because they

00:40:52.800 don't understand

00:40:53.460 the actual

00:40:54.000 game being

00:40:54.480 played.

00:40:55.880 Yeah,

00:40:56.420 I mean,

00:40:56.920 one,

00:40:57.420 it's kind of

00:40:57.780 funny to see

00:40:58.260 Nick Landon

00:40:58.720 doors drunk

00:40:59.240 driving.

00:40:59.840 I,

00:41:00.080 we obviously

00:41:00.520 don't on the

00:41:01.100 Orrin McIntyre

00:41:01.840 show.

00:41:02.260 No,

00:41:02.560 no,

00:41:02.780 no,

00:41:03.360 no.

00:41:03.620 I mean,

00:41:03.840 but the point

00:41:04.520 is,

00:41:04.800 is,

00:41:05.260 is the common

00:41:06.080 beautiful loser

00:41:06.900 exception is,

00:41:07.660 is that we,

00:41:08.120 we wish not to

00:41:09.120 destroy our

00:41:09.900 beautiful semi-truck

00:41:11.180 that's filled

00:41:11.720 with,

00:41:12.160 you know,

00:41:12.600 80 some odd

00:41:13.240 million Americans

00:41:13.880 that voted for

00:41:14.540 us this last

00:41:15.080 election.

00:41:15.440 And so we're

00:41:16.680 going to swerve.

00:41:17.840 It's a lot of,

00:41:18.600 you know,

00:41:19.140 scraping.

00:41:19.760 It's like,

00:41:20.180 it's like a car

00:41:20.940 accident,

00:41:21.420 but the car

00:41:21.840 accident's like a

00:41:22.660 clown car.

00:41:23.380 It's going to

00:41:23.740 take a lot of

00:41:24.220 time to get all

00:41:24.780 the bodies out

00:41:25.500 with the jaws

00:41:25.960 of life.

00:41:26.760 So instead,

00:41:27.560 why don't we

00:41:28.000 just accept

00:41:28.660 what they're,

00:41:29.400 what crazy

00:41:29.780 policy they're

00:41:30.400 going to do?

00:41:31.020 And that gives

00:41:31.800 us another round

00:41:32.720 of seed money

00:41:33.360 so we can say

00:41:34.040 they've gone too

00:41:34.740 far this time.

00:41:35.920 And,

00:41:36.440 and of course,

00:41:37.240 that's the big

00:41:37.900 issues.

00:41:38.240 They cannot take

00:41:39.120 things domestically

00:41:40.040 to the brink.

00:41:40.820 And that's,

00:41:41.400 again,

00:41:41.820 echoes sort of 1.00

00:41:42.400 that Republicans

00:41:45.440 brink when it

00:41:46.000 comes to war 0.79

00:41:47.100 or foreign

00:41:47.820 policy because

00:41:48.860 it's a lot

00:41:49.960 easier when

00:41:50.660 one side is

00:41:51.420 traditionally

00:41:51.800 associated with

00:41:52.480 the military

00:41:52.820 industrial complex

00:41:53.780 and the other

00:41:54.060 one's associated

00:41:54.660 with vibes.

00:41:56.460 But I think

00:41:57.100 it's been safe

00:41:58.100 since 2013

00:41:58.880 that we both

00:42:00.380 know that all

00:42:01.100 parties are on

00:42:02.140 board with war

00:42:02.840 no matter where

00:42:03.720 it is or who

00:42:04.800 it's for or

00:42:05.600 what nation

00:42:06.100 it's primarily

00:42:06.560 going to defend.

00:42:07.840 I mean,

00:42:08.020 that was the

00:42:08.380 biggest red pill

00:42:09.020 for anyone who

00:42:09.700 was like an

00:42:10.040 Obama voter,

00:42:10.880 especially if you

00:42:11.340 were in like 2013.

00:42:12.800 Like Obama just

00:42:13.360 got elected.

00:42:14.020 You had this huge

00:42:14.640 sort of like

00:42:15.200 victory about,

00:42:16.400 oh,

00:42:16.440 we're not going

00:42:17.020 to put boots

00:42:17.480 on the ground

00:42:17.960 in Syria.

00:42:18.940 But instead,

00:42:19.480 we saw the

00:42:19.840 greatest escalation

00:42:20.900 of the security

00:42:22.200 state,

00:42:22.900 domestic and

00:42:23.700 international

00:42:24.060 surveillance,

00:42:24.760 and then drone

00:42:25.880 policy at all

00:42:27.320 time plus the

00:42:28.560 surge in 2009.

00:42:29.840 And so,

00:42:30.200 I mean,

00:42:30.340 the real red pill

00:42:30.980 of Obama was,

00:42:31.780 oh,

00:42:32.020 these guys are

00:42:32.680 more or less

00:42:33.180 the same except

00:42:33.760 one is actively

00:42:34.580 trying to kill

00:42:35.160 you a little

00:42:35.500 better than the

00:42:36.020 other.

00:42:36.960 Yeah,

00:42:37.100 and this is why,

00:42:38.020 as you pointed

00:42:38.400 out earlier,

00:42:39.460 Trump was so

00:42:40.040 important despite

00:42:40.900 his very many

00:42:42.020 flaws.

00:42:42.580 And guys,

00:42:43.080 once again,

00:42:43.600 I'm not a

00:42:44.520 Trump booster.

00:42:45.340 I know this

00:42:46.060 man is deeply

00:42:47.240 flawed.

00:42:47.840 I know he has

00:42:48.700 all kinds of

00:42:49.740 problems.

00:42:50.360 I know he is

00:42:50.900 largely unworthy

00:42:51.820 of the movement

00:42:53.100 that he has at

00:42:53.780 the moment.

00:42:54.540 You're not telling

00:42:55.160 me anything I

00:42:55.760 don't know.

00:42:56.960 But the reason

00:42:57.740 that Trump is

00:42:58.340 still very critical

00:42:59.860 is that he

00:43:00.700 breaks this

00:43:01.260 dynamic.

00:43:01.940 As you said,

00:43:02.640 he said all the

00:43:03.180 things that you

00:43:03.660 weren't allowed

00:43:04.040 to say.

00:43:04.900 He doesn't care

00:43:06.980 about the system.

00:43:07.680 He's not here

00:43:08.180 to maintain the

00:43:09.440 system as it is,

00:43:10.660 or at least

00:43:11.840 the movement

00:43:12.460 he's behind

00:43:13.220 or he's

00:43:14.340 representing

00:43:14.880 is not

00:43:16.140 interested

00:43:16.640 to a large

00:43:18.220 extent in that.

00:43:19.260 They recognize

00:43:19.880 that there's

00:43:20.420 nothing of value

00:43:21.300 to save inside

00:43:22.380 the Republican

00:43:23.400 Party for the

00:43:24.000 most part,

00:43:24.800 which is why

00:43:25.440 the most important

00:43:26.040 thing that

00:43:26.600 Donald Trump

00:43:27.320 could do

00:43:27.780 was shatter

00:43:28.760 that neoconservative

00:43:30.180 hegemony

00:43:30.760 inside the

00:43:31.740 Republican Party.

00:43:32.920 People don't

00:43:33.660 recognize how

00:43:35.120 radical

00:43:35.880 that has been.

00:43:38.020 Yes, there

00:43:38.560 are still

00:43:38.860 plenty of

00:43:39.740 neoconservatives

00:43:41.120 inside the

00:43:43.520 conservative

00:43:44.400 establishment,

00:43:45.540 but a lot

00:43:46.220 of them have

00:43:46.680 to hide it

00:43:47.220 or they have

00:43:47.680 to change

00:43:48.020 their rhetoric.

00:43:49.040 They have

00:43:49.300 to go along

00:43:50.000 with what's

00:43:50.580 happening with

00:43:51.880 Trump and

00:43:52.360 supporting him

00:43:52.880 to at least

00:43:53.240 some extent.

00:43:54.520 You'll see

00:43:54.760 them run out

00:43:55.540 the minute

00:43:55.920 that he does

00:43:57.860 something that

00:43:58.340 they don't like

00:43:58.880 and you'll

00:44:00.080 kind of see

00:44:00.540 it, but

00:44:00.860 ultimately he

00:44:02.640 is having to

00:44:03.200 put all these

00:44:03.600 people on their

00:44:04.300 back foot for

00:44:05.060 a reason because

00:44:06.300 he represents a

00:44:07.280 new approach,

00:44:08.900 one that is

00:44:09.860 not aligned

00:44:10.640 with these

00:44:11.720 constant interests

00:44:12.820 of the war

00:44:13.420 machine and

00:44:13.980 other aspects

00:44:14.880 of the unified

00:44:16.160 state.

00:44:16.960 So he

00:44:18.140 definitely shatters

00:44:19.520 that paradigm

00:44:20.240 that the left

00:44:20.980 has been relying

00:44:22.500 on when it

00:44:23.020 comes to the

00:44:23.460 games of chicken,

00:44:24.240 which is why

00:44:24.600 he's unacceptable

00:44:25.240 to both the

00:44:25.860 left and the

00:44:26.440 right because

00:44:26.960 he creates an

00:44:28.020 entirely different

00:44:28.720 game, one in

00:44:29.780 which you

00:44:30.780 could ultimately

00:44:32.380 run into each

00:44:33.340 other.

00:44:34.020 But as we say,

00:44:34.820 that's the only

00:44:35.460 manner in which

00:44:36.940 you can actually

00:44:37.580 scare the

00:44:38.560 Democrats into

00:44:39.320 losing one of

00:44:40.460 these games.

00:44:41.660 Absolutely.

00:44:42.740 When the

00:44:43.140 zeitgeist starts

00:44:43.920 clucking, it

00:44:44.660 can only be a

00:44:45.480 sign that

00:44:46.080 conservatism is

00:44:47.840 coming to an

00:44:48.500 end.

00:44:49.180 The Tea Party

00:44:49.640 is not

00:44:50.180 informatively

00:44:51.400 described as

00:44:52.640 conservative

00:44:53.640 political movement

00:44:54.580 because its

00:44:55.420 signal influence

00:44:57.420 is the

00:44:58.300 insistence that

00:44:59.000 the rights

00:44:59.380 stop losing

00:45:00.340 chicken games.

00:45:01.520 So this is

00:45:02.480 during 2013,

00:45:04.040 so the Tea Party

00:45:04.760 is the dynamic

00:45:05.480 he's looking

00:45:06.040 at, but

00:45:06.760 obviously we

00:45:07.380 can very

00:45:07.740 easily port

00:45:08.560 this over

00:45:09.000 to MAGA,

00:45:10.480 the new

00:45:10.820 right, dissident

00:45:11.580 right, whatever

00:45:12.260 you want to

00:45:12.700 call it, the

00:45:13.100 populist side

00:45:14.860 of things.

00:45:15.780 Obviously, he's

00:45:17.180 saying basically

00:45:17.920 this is on the

00:45:18.580 right, but it's

00:45:19.060 not really a

00:45:19.660 conservative movement

00:45:20.540 because it

00:45:21.160 actually wants

00:45:21.780 to win.

00:45:22.560 It's not

00:45:23.060 interested in

00:45:23.820 doing these

00:45:24.460 fake approaches

00:45:25.260 and then demurring

00:45:26.960 whenever it's

00:45:27.520 time.

00:45:28.160 They're actually

00:45:28.880 interested in

00:45:29.560 figuring out how

00:45:30.340 to win one of

00:45:30.900 these games of

00:45:31.460 chicken.

00:45:31.720 It demands

00:45:32.860 credible commitment

00:45:33.860 through the

00:45:34.440 minimalization of

00:45:35.560 discretion on

00:45:36.660 the part of its

00:45:37.160 political representatives

00:45:38.280 along with

00:45:39.160 whatever insanity

00:45:39.980 is needed to

00:45:41.160 not freaking

00:45:42.180 swerve.

00:45:43.120 So this is

00:45:43.580 why, I don't

00:45:44.720 know, do you

00:45:45.160 remember that

00:45:45.720 show The

00:45:46.140 Newsroom, that

00:45:46.940 Alan Sorkin

00:45:47.600 show?

00:45:48.560 Oh yeah, that

00:45:49.320 garbage Aaron

00:45:50.600 Sorkin thing where

00:45:51.560 he got to

00:45:51.960 popularize the

00:45:53.040 Tea Parties, the

00:45:53.960 American Taliban,

00:45:55.320 and Jeff Daniels

00:45:56.340 got to play as

00:45:57.220 himself for two

00:45:58.420 seasons.

00:45:58.780 Yeah, so he

00:46:00.040 did that famous

00:46:00.960 speech about, like

00:46:02.040 you said, the

00:46:02.520 American Taliban 0.81

00:46:03.180 and that stuck

00:46:04.820 for a while.

00:46:05.580 The left was

00:46:06.040 knocking that

00:46:06.560 around.

00:46:06.980 Jon Stewart

00:46:07.540 said that, these

00:46:08.400 kind of things.

00:46:09.740 And so there's a

00:46:10.440 reason that they

00:46:11.440 recognize the

00:46:12.440 danger of the

00:46:13.120 Tea Party, even

00:46:13.680 though the Tea

00:46:14.120 Party didn't

00:46:14.580 ultimately succeed

00:46:15.480 and it kind of

00:46:17.020 morphed into what

00:46:18.400 we see now in

00:46:19.180 the MAGA movement.

00:46:20.360 They recognize

00:46:21.180 somewhere deep

00:46:22.100 inside the seeds

00:46:23.480 of what Nick

00:46:23.980 Land is pointing

00:46:24.700 to here.

00:46:25.980 We don't care

00:46:27.040 if we look

00:46:27.700 crazy.

00:46:28.100 We care about

00:46:28.680 winning.

00:46:29.620 And so whatever

00:46:30.180 we need to do

00:46:31.180 to force candidates

00:46:32.980 to win, that is

00:46:34.480 acceptable.

00:46:35.140 We don't need you

00:46:35.800 to be nuanced.

00:46:36.900 We don't need you

00:46:37.480 to come up with,

00:46:38.520 you know, to show

00:46:39.380 your area addition.

00:46:41.400 We want you to

00:46:42.400 win.

00:46:43.220 And so whatever it

00:46:44.000 takes to get

00:46:44.740 candidates that are

00:46:45.740 significant, who

00:46:47.040 are reasonably

00:46:48.540 committed to

00:46:49.600 winning, we will

00:46:50.800 do.

00:46:51.360 And this is really

00:46:52.040 important because a

00:46:53.020 lot of people, and

00:46:55.000 I'm going to direct

00:46:57.020 this to a lot of

00:46:58.560 people in the

00:46:59.000 conservative

00:46:59.420 establishment right

00:47:00.440 now, a lot of

00:47:01.360 people think they

00:47:02.060 are better than

00:47:03.400 somebody than say

00:47:04.800 like Marjorie

00:47:05.880 Taylor Greene or

00:47:07.880 some of these

00:47:09.960 other more

00:47:11.500 stalwart MAGA

00:47:13.460 congressmen, you

00:47:16.000 know, like Matt

00:47:17.240 Gates.

00:47:17.720 They think they

00:47:18.480 are above these

00:47:19.560 people.

00:47:20.000 They're more

00:47:20.380 learned, they're

00:47:21.200 more sophisticated.

00:47:21.980 complicated, this

00:47:23.380 kind of MAGA

00:47:24.000 trash that rolled

00:47:25.320 in with the

00:47:25.980 tide.

00:47:26.720 You know, we'll

00:47:27.040 just kind of hang

00:47:28.100 out and try to

00:47:28.880 discredit these

00:47:29.500 people.

00:47:30.160 But the reason

00:47:30.640 that these people,

00:47:31.460 and I'm not saying

00:47:32.000 that these people

00:47:32.540 are perfect by any

00:47:33.860 means, but the

00:47:34.620 reason that these

00:47:35.160 people are reliably

00:47:36.840 better on these

00:47:38.660 issues, they're

00:47:39.520 reliably people that

00:47:40.760 you can trust on

00:47:41.520 these issues to a

00:47:43.620 certain degree, is

00:47:44.660 that they do not

00:47:45.460 care about that

00:47:46.180 prestige.

00:47:47.020 They are not

00:47:47.700 interested in being

00:47:48.620 the most popular

00:47:49.420 guy on the hill.

00:47:50.800 They genuinely are

00:47:53.600 looking to win

00:47:54.420 rather than to

00:47:55.180 find a rhythm

00:47:56.280 inside the system.

00:47:57.300 Now, again, I'm

00:47:58.020 not saying all of

00:47:58.860 these people are

00:47:59.320 perfect.

00:47:59.900 I'm not saying

00:48:00.360 they've all been

00:48:01.020 perfect on these

00:48:02.220 issues.

00:48:02.860 What I am saying

00:48:03.640 is there's a

00:48:04.120 reason that these

00:48:04.680 people draw

00:48:05.160 specific ire, and

00:48:06.860 that's because they

00:48:08.220 fit this profile of

00:48:09.660 kind of the tea

00:48:10.340 party.

00:48:11.000 I don't care.

00:48:12.020 We're just here to

00:48:12.840 win, and you

00:48:14.000 don't need to be

00:48:14.580 sophisticated, and

00:48:15.620 you don't need to

00:48:16.340 you know, we're

00:48:18.120 not looking for

00:48:19.500 the next

00:48:20.120 philosopher king.

00:48:21.080 We're looking for

00:48:21.720 somebody who's

00:48:22.240 willing to play

00:48:22.960 the game and

00:48:23.580 win, and that's

00:48:24.580 what matters.

00:48:25.880 Yeah, and even

00:48:26.520 then, I think that

00:48:27.520 the criticism you

00:48:28.860 can see get

00:48:29.360 levied against

00:48:30.120 people, even in

00:48:32.320 committee hearings,

00:48:32.920 like, Jim

00:48:34.100 Jordan, I want to

00:48:35.120 win.

00:48:35.460 I really don't

00:48:35.960 care about how

00:48:36.460 my optics look,

00:48:37.320 and then the

00:48:37.780 left spent so

00:48:38.420 much time calling

00:48:39.240 him out for not

00:48:39.820 being properly of

00:48:41.040 congressional decor

00:48:41.820 because he never

00:48:42.340 really wore a

00:48:42.880 suit jacket all the

00:48:43.680 time, or Matt

00:48:45.100 Gates and his hair

00:48:46.060 and some of the

00:48:46.660 allegations that were

00:48:47.600 levied against him.

00:48:48.720 You know, even

00:48:50.320 when these people

00:48:50.940 want to play the

00:48:52.040 game how they see

00:48:53.100 it, they may not

00:48:53.720 see it like the

00:48:54.380 way Oren does, or

00:48:55.460 how I do, or how

00:48:56.480 many of you in the

00:48:57.500 audience might want

00:48:58.240 to do it, but they

00:48:59.220 are literally begging

00:49:00.340 the establishment.

00:49:01.680 They are saying, for

00:49:02.320 the love of God, can

00:49:03.780 we please, for once,

00:49:05.720 put one little W on

00:49:07.420 our corner that is

00:49:08.880 not a symbolic

00:49:09.680 victory, or that is

00:49:11.000 not those beautiful

00:49:12.240 losers, well, at

00:49:13.480 least I still have my

00:49:14.280 principles, ideals, and

00:49:15.700 for a lot of people

00:49:16.320 that's what Trump

00:49:16.900 represents, is that not

00:49:18.480 everyone is sort of

00:49:19.340 completely disillusioned

00:49:20.400 with the American

00:49:20.880 system, the democracy,

00:49:22.100 its constitution,

00:49:22.740 however you may feel

00:49:23.640 about it, so you see

00:49:25.280 what to, so a lot of

00:49:26.820 people like us might

00:49:27.580 just be as pretty

00:49:28.180 moderate guys that are

00:49:29.980 like, well, we can

00:49:30.960 play this game, and I

00:49:32.140 know we can play this

00:49:32.840 game, because I can

00:49:33.760 play it, and I can

00:49:34.520 probably do it better

00:49:35.120 than these Democrats

00:49:35.780 are, because they've

00:49:36.460 never had actual

00:49:37.180 opposition, and that

00:49:38.500 was probably the big

00:49:39.420 thing about Trump in

00:49:40.340 2016, was for a

00:49:42.300 split second, the

00:49:43.360 elites realized our

00:49:44.820 thumb is not

00:49:45.600 completely on the

00:49:46.440 scales, and now this

00:49:48.180 bull in a China

00:49:49.200 shop is now going

00:49:50.380 to be in the

00:49:50.880 White House, and

00:49:51.980 they did get their

00:49:52.580 thumbs on the scales

00:49:53.340 properly, both in

00:49:54.200 2020, but during his

00:49:55.280 administration, because

00:49:56.060 you saw how awful the

00:49:57.440 administrative state is,

00:49:58.680 the bureaucracy, the

00:49:59.500 civil service, but, you

00:50:01.060 know, for them, it's

00:50:02.260 the left takes advantage

00:50:04.140 of the fact, and has

00:50:05.040 taken advantage of the

00:50:05.940 fact, that they know

00:50:07.020 our opponent will

00:50:08.180 always swerve, and

00:50:09.480 now that it's getting

00:50:10.200 to a point where we

00:50:11.820 know, as we get into

00:50:12.920 our cars for this other

00:50:14.040 game of chicken, we're

00:50:15.360 beginning to witness

00:50:16.040 some parts of that

00:50:17.000 car getting thrown

00:50:17.760 out, like the brakes,

00:50:19.200 like the steering

00:50:19.920 wheel, like, you

00:50:21.380 know, anything that

00:50:22.060 might prevent that

00:50:22.820 car from stopping or

00:50:24.000 swerving, and so, you

00:50:26.280 know, they know this as

00:50:27.540 well, and so what do we

00:50:28.700 mean?

00:50:28.900 That means we're going

00:50:29.380 to create the biggest,

00:50:30.560 you know, man-driven

00:50:31.920 missile that we possibly

00:50:33.000 can, and we joked

00:50:34.560 earlier about

00:50:35.100 bio-Leninism, but it

00:50:36.060 is true.

00:50:36.600 Why is the border open?

00:50:37.660 Why are they so adamant

00:50:38.520 about pushing amnesty?

00:50:39.820 Why are they so adamant

00:50:40.700 for saying anyone can be

00:50:41.680 an American?

00:50:42.380 Because eventually,

00:50:43.300 they're going to have

00:50:44.040 more mass than you, and

00:50:45.620 even if you want to be

00:50:46.920 the committed opposition

00:50:48.260 and not swerve in this

00:50:50.180 game of chicken, they're

00:50:51.880 going to get rid of way

00:50:53.140 more of you in that car

00:50:54.240 accident than they are of

00:50:55.580 their guys, because they

00:50:56.680 can just import a million

00:50:57.660 more of them.

00:50:58.900 Yep.

00:50:59.880 All right, back to where I

00:51:00.840 say here, this is, of

00:51:01.860 course, highly, even

00:51:03.040 totally antagonistic.

00:51:05.000 It is why the left

00:51:06.040 median now sounds like

00:51:07.220 this, and you can see the

00:51:08.200 footnote there where it

00:51:09.520 would go to a number of

00:51:11.720 salon articles where they're

00:51:12.900 just losing their mind

00:51:13.920 over how evil the Tea

00:51:14.980 Party is.

00:51:15.520 It's the American Taliban 0.94

00:51:16.500 and stuff like that.

00:51:17.840 Before all significance is

00:51:19.440 consumed in partisan

00:51:20.760 rhetoric, it is important

00:51:22.340 to note that the loser

00:51:23.420 in a chicken game, even

00:51:24.700 the merely probabilistic

00:51:25.940 virtual loser, necessarily

00:51:27.560 thinks its opponent is

00:51:29.240 insane, because that's

00:51:30.680 what it takes to win a

00:51:31.420 game of chicken, right?

00:51:32.360 That's what it takes to

00:51:33.120 stick in there longer than

00:51:34.380 the other person.

00:51:35.180 They were willing to

00:51:35.920 stay one second beyond

00:51:37.760 what you thought sane.

00:51:39.360 So by definition, for them

00:51:40.680 to win, they must look

00:51:42.860 insane.

00:51:43.980 Any more moderate

00:51:44.820 response would be the

00:51:46.140 infallible sign that

00:51:47.380 losing was inevitable

00:51:49.280 once again.

00:51:50.560 So you actually have to

00:51:51.780 look crazy to win this

00:51:53.360 game.

00:51:54.180 This is not a great

00:51:55.120 endorsement of democracy,

00:51:56.200 but he is explaining the

00:51:57.540 best way to win these

00:51:59.160 confrontations and party

00:52:00.340 partisan politics.

00:52:01.560 It isn't hard to

00:52:02.780 understand why this might

00:52:03.920 be happening.

00:52:05.100 In Iterated Chicken, the

00:52:06.960 loser no doubt acquires a

00:52:08.640 predisposition to submissiveness.

00:52:11.660 It's hopeless.

00:52:12.520 Those lunatics always win.

00:52:14.280 But the objective

00:52:14.960 undercurrent of repeated

00:52:16.220 defeat is a contraction

00:52:18.080 of the distance between

00:52:19.420 relative, asymmetrical, and

00:52:21.220 absolute mutual defeat.

00:52:23.200 Eventually, the difference

00:52:24.140 isn't worth surrendering

00:52:25.640 or swerving over.

00:52:27.000 If they keep on winning,

00:52:27.960 there'll be nothing left

00:52:28.780 anyway, so we might as

00:52:30.280 well finish it now.

00:52:31.880 And you can feel this

00:52:33.100 dynamic happening right

00:52:34.660 now, right?

00:52:35.200 The reason the Republicans,

00:52:37.380 the right, conservatives

00:52:38.760 would not have supported

00:52:40.280 a guy like Trump a

00:52:42.080 decade ago, very

00:52:43.540 obviously.

00:52:44.560 And the reason they're

00:52:45.640 willing to do that now

00:52:46.860 and the reason they're

00:52:47.520 willing to support more

00:52:48.400 and more people like

00:52:49.420 Trump now is that the

00:52:51.500 cost of losing, of

00:52:54.220 bailing out and

00:52:55.040 preserving the system

00:52:56.080 versus just taking

00:52:57.500 everything off the rails

00:52:58.500 is getting closer and

00:52:59.700 closer together.

00:53:00.880 Losing, you know, oh,

00:53:02.740 well, if you run Trump

00:53:04.340 at the system, the whole

00:53:05.680 thing might come apart.

00:53:06.560 Well, if we swerve and

00:53:08.800 let the system continue,

00:53:09.900 the whole thing's going

00:53:10.660 to come apart anyway.

00:53:12.020 So the cost of actually

00:53:13.900 losing is basically

00:53:15.220 nothing because it's

00:53:16.180 already looks pretty much

00:53:17.460 like what it does when

00:53:19.160 we swerve.

00:53:19.820 So why not just go all

00:53:21.200 the way?

00:53:21.700 Why not just push things

00:53:22.980 to the limit?

00:53:23.620 That becomes closer and

00:53:25.060 closer to the optimal

00:53:26.080 strategy, the worse and

00:53:27.660 worse the regime gets.

00:53:30.220 Yeah, and that last

00:53:31.420 sentence there, if there's

00:53:32.280 nothing left anyway, we

00:53:33.200 might as well finish it

00:53:34.420 now.

00:53:34.660 And I think this is

00:53:35.300 where, again, you've

00:53:36.320 gotten so many

00:53:36.980 discussions since 2020

00:53:38.360 over everything from

00:53:40.140 national divorce to

00:53:41.500 accelerationism to

00:53:42.900 civil conflict and

00:53:44.780 things like that.

00:53:45.720 Because, well, if my

00:53:46.760 side isn't going to do

00:53:47.700 anything, then we need

00:53:48.980 to move forward and we

00:53:49.960 just need to nip this in

00:53:51.060 the bud and stop it 0.95

00:53:51.820 where it is.

00:53:52.900 And Trump, of course,

00:53:53.940 at least with the

00:53:54.480 rhetoric, you know, it's

00:53:55.220 like, well, we're not

00:53:56.040 going to swerve anymore.

00:53:56.800 We're actually going to

00:53:57.580 deport millions of people.

00:53:58.700 We're going to do X, Y,

00:53:59.560 and Z.

00:54:00.240 And so you see these two

00:54:01.120 tracks here where there's

00:54:01.860 one side that says, no,

00:54:02.740 we're going to win this

00:54:03.540 thing.

00:54:04.000 And, you know, jokingly,

00:54:05.280 he'll refer to being

00:54:05.880 dictator for a day.

00:54:06.940 And then you do have a

00:54:07.920 large amount of people

00:54:09.040 from all walks of life.

00:54:10.340 These are not just the

00:54:11.320 terminally online that are

00:54:13.100 like, well, this system is

00:54:14.160 irredeemable and it's not

00:54:15.620 going to be fixed.

00:54:16.560 And that leads to some

00:54:17.540 very uncomfortable

00:54:18.460 political questions on how

00:54:19.860 to move forward.

00:54:20.900 And this is why you see

00:54:21.720 Curtis Yarvin and

00:54:22.720 Patrick Dineen and others

00:54:23.840 talk about, you know,

00:54:24.620 bloodless or, you know,

00:54:26.300 sort of civil and

00:54:27.880 peaceful transfers of

00:54:29.160 power and regime change.

00:54:30.940 Hopefully that can be the 0.55

00:54:32.360 case.

00:54:33.200 But at the same time,

00:54:34.160 you have to recognize

00:54:35.060 that you have one system

00:54:36.980 that has almost a complete

00:54:38.180 monopoly on power, the

00:54:39.380 intelligence community,

00:54:41.240 academia, immigration,

00:54:43.680 et cetera, all along the

00:54:44.900 lines.

00:54:45.500 And so things are getting

00:54:46.600 dreadfully existential.

00:54:48.360 And that raises, of

00:54:49.140 course, the question about,

00:54:50.600 well, if they keep winning,

00:54:52.080 then what do we do?

00:54:53.300 Because it leads into a

00:54:54.540 position of learned

00:54:55.320 helplessness and that sort

00:54:56.560 of submissiveness that Nick

00:54:58.120 is describing here.

00:54:58.980 Exactly.

00:55:00.100 Yeah, you're in that

00:55:01.080 learned helplessness, but

00:55:03.280 eventually the question

00:55:05.440 becomes, well, if I, there

00:55:06.440 is a point at which if you

00:55:08.120 do not act, there are no

00:55:09.480 other options to act in the

00:55:10.760 future.

00:55:11.560 And so you're closing in on

00:55:13.600 that point.

00:55:14.140 And that's why everything is

00:55:15.640 filled with the level of

00:55:16.500 tension that it is.

00:55:17.860 Finishing up the say here,

00:55:20.360 reciprocally, incessant

00:55:21.620 victory threatens to dull

00:55:22.960 revolutionary fervor in

00:55:24.820 conservatism.

00:55:26.140 Progressives now have many

00:55:27.600 generations of substantial

00:55:28.860 victory to defend, so

00:55:30.400 taking things to the edge

00:55:31.440 has begun to seem

00:55:32.480 concerning.

00:55:33.500 When the government shuts

00:55:34.220 down, what does the right

00:55:35.860 really lose?

00:55:36.800 At the very least, it's

00:55:37.980 beginning to wonder, and

00:55:39.380 by doing so, upping its

00:55:40.980 chicken game, a.k.a.

00:55:42.180 going insane.

00:55:43.480 Progressives don't have to

00:55:44.340 wonder, they lose the

00:55:45.700 government.

00:55:46.240 And so he's noting in this

00:55:47.220 last paragraph the shift

00:55:48.520 in the dynamic.

00:55:49.600 Because originally, the

00:55:51.020 dynamic is the right is the

00:55:53.140 establishment.

00:55:53.920 The right has the

00:55:55.520 civilizational capital, it

00:55:57.140 has the buy-in to the

00:55:58.200 system, it cares about the

00:55:59.700 institutions and the

00:56:00.660 preservation of the system

00:56:01.700 as it is.

00:56:02.960 The left doesn't, and so

00:56:04.620 it's willing to eat away at

00:56:06.320 as much of that system as it

00:56:08.200 can to get the benefits that

00:56:09.840 it wants.

00:56:10.320 And because it's reckless

00:56:11.300 with the system and with the

00:56:13.180 benefits, because it

00:56:14.000 ultimately is not the owner

00:56:15.180 of those benefits, it wins

00:56:17.540 more and more of these games.

00:56:19.360 But at some point, you get to

00:56:21.020 this situation where the left

00:56:22.480 has won so often that now

00:56:24.720 they own the institutions.

00:56:27.900 They own the 0.92

00:56:29.020 civilizational capital.

00:56:30.440 They own the buy-in to the

00:56:34.100 system as it exists now.

00:56:35.780 And while that's not a good

00:56:37.080 place to be in as a

00:56:38.600 conservative or someone on

00:56:39.620 the right, it does change

00:56:41.540 the dynamic.

00:56:42.420 It does open up additional

00:56:43.860 strategies.

00:56:44.660 It does create scenarios where

00:56:46.460 now you can be the one

00:56:48.340 playing the game of chicken

00:56:49.720 more effectively.

00:56:50.460 Because what do you really

00:56:52.380 have to lose?

00:56:53.260 This is a lesson that the

00:56:54.400 right did not learn in a

00:56:56.560 moment like, say, COVID

00:56:58.380 during the lockdowns when

00:57:00.360 they were pushing to open

00:57:01.500 the schools.

00:57:02.300 They did not recognize the

00:57:03.860 left closing the schools,

00:57:06.220 shutting down and changing

00:57:07.960 the way that children learn,

00:57:10.300 being all under the care of

00:57:13.000 these liberal teachers.

00:57:14.120 They did not recognize that

00:57:15.480 that had been an advantage

00:57:16.700 for the left.

00:57:18.000 And so that by actually

00:57:19.080 breaking the system in a

00:57:21.400 significant way, you could

00:57:22.760 create a victory for the

00:57:24.200 right.

00:57:24.660 The right is not used to

00:57:25.520 that.

00:57:25.780 It's used to conserving the

00:57:26.920 systems, not breaking the

00:57:28.440 systems.

00:57:29.120 And this is a mentality shift

00:57:30.320 that I know you and I have

00:57:32.220 both tried to affect for a

00:57:34.920 lot of political actors,

00:57:36.300 recognizing that protecting

00:57:37.860 the system is not the goal

00:57:39.540 anymore.

00:57:39.960 The system is no longer your

00:57:41.080 friend.

00:57:41.860 The institutions are

00:57:42.900 subverted.

00:57:43.400 You are no longer the guy

00:57:44.960 inside the citadel trying to

00:57:47.340 hold the line.

00:57:48.420 You are now the pirate.

00:57:50.040 You are now, you know, the

00:57:51.840 raider.

00:57:52.360 You are now the guy on the

00:57:53.600 outside trying to figure out

00:57:55.120 how to crack the monolith of

00:57:57.340 the institution that is

00:57:58.320 working against you.

00:57:59.500 And so that shift in the

00:58:00.740 dynamic is disorienting for

00:58:02.940 the right, but also for the

00:58:04.540 left.

00:58:04.800 And that really changes the

00:58:05.840 dynamic.

00:58:06.980 Yeah.

00:58:07.460 And this is, again, one of

00:58:08.400 those really prescient essays.

00:58:09.920 I mean, this is from now 11

00:58:11.700 years ago, a little over now.

00:58:13.480 And we're witnessing exactly

00:58:15.560 what he says in this last

00:58:16.460 paragraph here is, is that,

00:58:17.840 well, progressives, they lose

00:58:18.700 the government.

00:58:19.720 Whereas the right is like,

00:58:20.780 well, what do we have to lose

00:58:21.580 if we start, you know, taking

00:58:23.180 apart the system or dismantling

00:58:25.580 or, you know, the woke mind

00:58:27.580 virus or whatever you want to

00:58:28.540 call it.

00:58:29.180 And there's finally some

00:58:30.480 serious questions there.

00:58:31.440 It's kind of Dalusian in a 0.96

00:58:32.520 sense where it's like, finally,

00:58:33.540 we can be we can be pirates

00:58:34.980 within our own, you know,

00:58:37.160 waterways and land ways.

00:58:38.820 Like, this is exciting.

00:58:39.380 You are the nomad war

00:58:40.520 machine.

00:58:41.300 Exactly.

00:58:41.960 Right.

00:58:42.220 And so there's there's an

00:58:43.020 opportunity to get really

00:58:43.780 excited about it.

00:58:44.520 But then at the same time,

00:58:45.520 you have to be I think people

00:58:47.760 who want to play that game

00:58:48.900 or be the nomad war machine

00:58:50.520 need to realize that does

00:58:51.940 come at some substantial

00:58:53.020 costs.

00:58:54.180 Anyone that, you know, had

00:58:55.640 was there January 6th has

00:58:57.260 been visited by the FBI on

00:58:58.880 more than one occasion,

00:58:59.820 usually unannounced.

00:59:00.900 You have witnessed friends

00:59:02.600 like Douglas Mackey be put

00:59:04.380 into jail and have had

00:59:05.620 himself on appeal over

00:59:07.460 memes that he didn't even

00:59:08.680 make.

00:59:09.140 And you've witnessed even

00:59:10.540 random Anons be accused 1.00

00:59:12.120 and have openly testified

00:59:14.040 in court to turn them,

00:59:15.800 you know, their mutuals and

00:59:16.920 their friends in the group

00:59:17.700 chat against them.

00:59:19.140 And so it's really important

00:59:20.580 to consider that, like,

00:59:21.700 yes, destroying the system

00:59:22.920 or dismantling the system or

00:59:24.040 trying to take away the

00:59:25.020 enemy's toys or their their

00:59:26.540 wheels so they can't drunk

00:59:27.940 drivingly run into you is a

00:59:29.440 good thing.

00:59:30.480 Be aware of the costs that

00:59:32.000 are associated with it.

00:59:33.700 And that's why it's important

00:59:35.380 for the right to be prepared

00:59:36.840 for that kind of deal that

00:59:38.340 if you if you don't have a

00:59:39.800 job, there are people that

00:59:40.680 you can go to if you're

00:59:41.540 looking for fraternal

00:59:43.140 organizations that are not

00:59:44.500 going to, you know, turn

00:59:45.760 your your charity stubs over

00:59:48.200 to CNN because you donated

00:59:49.840 to Kyle Rittenhouse or

00:59:50.760 whatever.

00:59:51.680 Those are the things that the

00:59:52.620 right needs to seriously

00:59:53.560 consider.

00:59:54.240 I mean, it's easy to it's

00:59:55.560 easy to podcast.

00:59:56.400 It's easy to do whatever.

00:59:57.160 But if you're willing to take

00:59:58.940 advantage of your local

00:59:59.740 council of government or regional

01:00:01.200 planning organization to make

01:00:02.760 sure that, hey, whatever

01:00:03.820 Gibbs you get goes to your

01:00:05.180 friends and not your

01:00:06.040 enemies, you got to learn how

01:00:07.620 to take away your enemy's

01:00:08.500 toys.

01:00:08.860 But that does come at a

01:00:09.580 substantial cost.

01:00:10.540 And if the last four years

01:00:11.720 and Trump's assassination

01:00:12.780 attempt is any example, the

01:00:14.940 total state will not stop at

01:00:16.220 anything until they achieve

01:00:17.340 some kind of total victory.

01:00:19.140 Did I ever tell you about the

01:00:20.520 regional planning council

01:00:21.840 meeting I covered where they

01:00:23.840 couldn't get a quorum to

01:00:25.640 lower the number of people in

01:00:26.720 the quorum?

01:00:27.640 So like the whole thing died.

01:00:29.920 You know, it's so it's

01:00:31.160 someone who works with that

01:00:32.020 kind of stuff.

01:00:32.700 IRL, I did you I feel

01:00:35.240 your pain.

01:00:36.120 Yeah, I was I was trapped in

01:00:38.000 an episode of Parks and

01:00:39.340 Recreation.

01:00:40.360 I live that every day.

01:00:41.920 Yeah, it's it's a wonderful

01:00:43.940 and strange place.

01:00:45.160 All right, guys, let's go

01:00:46.440 ahead and wrap this up.

01:00:48.580 We've got some questions of

01:00:50.060 the people over here.

01:00:50.680 So let's get to that before

01:00:52.560 anything else.

01:00:54.140 While we're doing that

01:00:55.200 Prudentialist, can you let

01:00:56.140 everyone know where to find

01:00:57.020 your excellent work?

01:00:58.400 Sure.

01:00:58.500 You can find really

01:00:59.740 wherever you find this

01:01:00.620 lovely image of a frog is

01:01:02.020 or my mustachioed face.

01:01:04.160 But you can find me over on

01:01:05.260 YouTube as the Prudentialist

01:01:06.340 or theprudentialist.substack.com.

01:01:08.540 You can find all of my links

01:01:09.840 at findmyfriends.net

01:01:11.360 slash the Prudentialist.

01:01:12.420 This will probably be my last

01:01:13.460 show for a little while.

01:01:14.320 I am moving to my new place

01:01:17.120 this weekend.

01:01:17.560 So things will be a little

01:01:18.600 spotty for for work and

01:01:20.820 content.

01:01:21.200 But I am very actually happy

01:01:22.700 to promote something that you

01:01:25.180 guys have worked on in part

01:01:26.300 because I'm in it.

01:01:27.520 The Blaze has a new magazine

01:01:28.560 coming out very soon called

01:01:30.220 Frontier Magazine and it

01:01:32.400 looks really good.

01:01:33.360 I've seen the cover.

01:01:34.240 They've got my own author's

01:01:35.720 copies and mail on its way.

01:01:37.880 I have an essay on there about

01:01:39.520 the video game market and the

01:01:42.180 economics behind that.

01:01:43.940 And I know that there are a

01:01:44.960 lot of other great essays.

01:01:46.140 Oren's got one in there.

01:01:47.240 Several of your favorite

01:01:48.240 friends and posters are on

01:01:49.460 there.

01:01:49.740 So when that comes out, be sure

01:01:51.180 to get yourself a copy.

01:01:52.800 Yeah, very excited that the

01:01:53.800 Blaze is doing it.

01:01:54.840 Great, great that they're

01:01:56.160 rolling out content from guys

01:01:57.720 like you.

01:01:59.180 And I'm excited that that's

01:02:01.040 going to be something people

01:02:01.820 can have in their hands soon.

01:02:03.700 We're entering that moment

01:02:05.020 where the physical the return

01:02:06.620 to physical print is a is a

01:02:08.940 level of distinction.

01:02:10.000 It's the aristocracy are the

01:02:12.820 ones receiving those, you

01:02:14.220 know, those print magazines at

01:02:16.380 this point.

01:02:16.880 So, you know, you can kind of

01:02:18.420 head head back to that moment

01:02:20.420 where having something on your

01:02:22.920 table was, you know, worth

01:02:24.560 talking about was a nice

01:02:26.340 benefit for being politically

01:02:28.080 engaged.

01:02:29.200 All right, guys, let's head

01:02:30.100 over to the questions real

01:02:31.980 quick.

01:02:33.020 Gabe Underground says,

01:02:34.780 Cheers, bros.

01:02:35.440 This is one of Land's best

01:02:36.400 political realist essays and

01:02:38.240 should be mandatory reading

01:02:39.260 alongside Schmidt.

01:02:40.720 Yeah.

01:02:41.120 Again, Land is obviously a

01:02:43.780 trained philosopher in a way

01:02:45.520 that Curtis Yarvin isn't.

01:02:46.880 so there's often his longer

01:02:49.920 works can be more complex and

01:02:51.640 a little difficult for people

01:02:52.540 to grasp.

01:02:53.320 But I always people encourage

01:02:54.480 people to read the Zeno

01:02:55.720 system stuff, even though a

01:02:57.380 lot of it is in interaction

01:02:58.980 with other bloggers that we're

01:03:00.660 talking in the kind of near

01:03:01.980 reactionary sphere at the time

01:03:03.820 there tend to be bite sized

01:03:06.080 and they're something you can

01:03:07.960 really chew on.

01:03:08.700 It's a page or two.

01:03:09.700 If you take your time and go

01:03:11.120 slow, you can grasp it pretty

01:03:12.500 easily.

01:03:12.880 I think for a lot of people,

01:03:14.920 the new Zeno systems is

01:03:16.320 coming out, I think, today

01:03:18.900 or tomorrow with Passage

01:03:21.340 Press.

01:03:22.820 So that's nice.

01:03:24.260 You can finally get these.

01:03:25.560 You used to have to chase down

01:03:26.880 PDFs online, but now you can

01:03:28.480 actually get it in print.

01:03:30.080 Let's see here.

01:03:30.640 Tiny Stupid Demon says, 1.00

01:03:32.740 As I often think the problem

01:03:34.460 with conservatives, including

01:03:35.580 me, is that they're

01:03:36.460 constitutionally conservative,

01:03:37.980 Psy.

01:03:38.560 Yeah, that is something that we

01:03:39.820 have to work against, right?

01:03:40.920 And this is interesting for me

01:03:43.220 because I really do have deep

01:03:44.920 down, you know, I just want a

01:03:46.160 grill.

01:03:46.500 That is, I am a grill

01:03:47.780 American at heart.

01:03:49.460 But, you know, that that's

01:03:51.480 just not the scenario we're in

01:03:52.760 at the moment.

01:03:53.260 We have to make the mentality

01:03:54.280 shift.

01:03:54.760 And that's one of the reasons

01:03:55.780 I like this essay is it talks

01:03:57.140 about the importance of that

01:03:58.920 mentality shift.

01:04:00.080 You know, it doesn't mean that

01:04:01.320 we have to completely throw

01:04:03.940 our values or these things to

01:04:05.820 the wind, but we need to

01:04:07.700 radically rethink the strategic

01:04:09.940 position we're in.

01:04:11.240 It's very different to be

01:04:12.800 outside the system trying to

01:04:14.440 break in rather than inside

01:04:15.840 the system trying to protect

01:04:17.400 it.

01:04:17.640 And I think understanding

01:04:19.160 that that dynamic is really

01:04:21.980 critical for conservatives

01:04:23.140 going forward.

01:04:25.600 Yeah, absolutely.

01:04:26.660 I think one of the big things

01:04:28.060 about it is that we have as

01:04:31.300 conservatives, I mean, we have

01:04:32.500 an institutional and biological

01:04:34.380 constitution to be sort of

01:04:35.980 predisposed to what we were

01:04:37.840 raised in and what we were

01:04:39.160 socialized with, which, of

01:04:40.920 course, is the constitutional

01:04:42.500 system, the founders and so

01:04:43.980 on.

01:04:44.840 Also, we don't hold the candle

01:04:46.160 to the men that came before us

01:04:47.600 in that regard.

01:04:48.480 You know, we're not the

01:04:49.400 Samuel Chamberlains or the 0.69

01:04:50.880 Hamiltons of the world 0.95

01:04:52.180 anymore.

01:04:52.780 But that doesn't mean that we

01:04:54.600 can't look at what they've

01:04:55.500 done and realize that we are

01:04:57.680 so far gone from that, that

01:04:59.400 they would very much be happy

01:05:01.340 if we did away with the

01:05:02.820 puppet strings on the corpse

01:05:04.780 of their system than anything

01:05:06.500 else.

01:05:06.900 Very true.

01:05:08.600 Gabe Underground again says,

01:05:10.020 you could fund a right-wing

01:05:11.320 patronage network by just

01:05:12.840 popping a dollar in the

01:05:14.360 spandrel was right jar every 1.00

01:05:15.640 time a client group of the

01:05:17.360 left speaks.

01:05:18.640 Yeah, obviously, Nick Land and

01:05:20.680 Curtis Yarvin get most of the

01:05:22.460 attention when it comes to

01:05:23.880 neo-reaction, but spandrel has

01:05:26.720 some really critical essays and,

01:05:28.680 of course, violinism is one of

01:05:30.620 them here.

01:05:31.640 Robert Weisfeld, just given the

01:05:34.020 super chat, thank you very much

01:05:35.600 for your support, sir.

01:05:37.780 Balthazar says, my main concern

01:05:39.560 is that the machine goes down.

01:05:41.460 The people in mass are still

01:05:42.520 enslaved to the American liberal

01:05:43.840 narrative and constitutional

01:05:45.920 worship.

01:05:47.180 And yeah, you're of course right,

01:05:48.900 Balthazar, that there is this

01:05:50.440 dynamic where, you know, even if

01:05:52.280 the machine as it exists now kind

01:05:55.760 of went down, people would still

01:05:57.200 be bought into a lot of the

01:05:59.080 narratives that the political

01:06:02.080 formulas that were critical to it

01:06:03.820 would still continue.

01:06:05.520 And you know what?

01:06:06.260 That's okay.

01:06:07.740 I try to explain this to people.

01:06:09.880 You know, think about the

01:06:11.780 transition of Rome, right?

01:06:13.060 And I'm obviously not thinking, I

01:06:14.920 don't think we're heading into the

01:06:15.880 American empire.

01:06:16.440 I think we're already there.

01:06:17.420 But just this dynamic of, you know,

01:06:20.200 Augustus comes to power, right?

01:06:24.600 Octavian comes to power.

01:06:25.760 And he doesn't declare himself

01:06:27.920 emperor and he doesn't dissolve

01:06:29.840 the Senate and he doesn't get rid

01:06:32.340 of most of the trappings.

01:06:33.620 They still, you know, name people

01:06:35.200 consul and all kinds of stuff.

01:06:37.260 They still go through all of the,

01:06:39.080 it's still the Roman Republic.

01:06:40.460 A lot of the ruling fictions and

01:06:45.780 narratives stay right in place.

01:06:48.380 But something radical changes in the

01:06:51.120 dynamic of the empire, you know,

01:06:54.940 moves from the Republic to the

01:06:56.220 empire, even if they don't formally

01:06:58.560 announce it.

01:06:59.760 And I think you need to understand

01:07:01.080 that just because, you know,

01:07:03.960 there's not a complete shift in

01:07:05.620 every one of this, you're not going

01:07:07.120 to tear down every edifice, nor

01:07:08.760 necessarily do you want to.

01:07:10.780 There are actually a lot of things

01:07:12.280 about the American founding that are

01:07:14.140 worth preserving.

01:07:15.880 So, you know, you should not be

01:07:18.620 looking to break all of them down

01:07:20.660 anyway, but even some of the things

01:07:22.400 that are annoy us because they do

01:07:24.360 tend to be a fiction that people

01:07:25.880 hold on to, they don't necessarily

01:07:27.560 have to vanish for things to

01:07:29.460 change significantly.

01:07:30.580 So we, you know, we've made this

01:07:33.860 joke a million times, you know, the

01:07:35.120 whole facts don't care about your

01:07:36.220 feelings thing, but don't feel like

01:07:37.880 at some point you're just going to

01:07:39.060 win an argument with the

01:07:41.840 conservative establishment and then

01:07:43.460 like they hand you the keys to the

01:07:44.860 kingdom.

01:07:45.480 That's not how this works.

01:07:46.820 It's not how it works between the

01:07:49.280 political parties or their overall

01:07:50.840 system, and it's not how it works

01:07:52.380 inside the right-wing movement

01:07:53.880 either.

01:07:54.880 You're not suddenly going to throw out

01:07:56.480 the best argument and then they're

01:07:57.840 defeated and they go home and they

01:07:59.860 hand you all of the infrastructure for

01:08:02.700 the right.

01:08:03.440 So it's not necessarily the goal to

01:08:06.780 break down every one of these old

01:08:09.220 positions or these old narratives.

01:08:11.720 It's simply to shift the way in which

01:08:14.260 the system operates so that our guys

01:08:17.240 can win consistently.

01:08:19.860 Yeah, I mean, an even more recent

01:08:21.040 example would be just the

01:08:22.540 Napoleonic era.

01:08:24.580 I mean, the spirit of the

01:08:26.260 revolution that Napoleon wrote in on

01:08:27.960 is still there, but the Napoleonic

01:08:30.080 code is far more hierarchical and

01:08:32.100 organized than any of the, you know,

01:08:35.300 Jacobins would have ever dared, would 1.00

01:08:36.920 have wanted to have.

01:08:38.140 But again, you take that, the things

01:08:40.320 that people were raised with and you

01:08:41.740 can reshape them in your own image in

01:08:43.820 the same way that the left has done

01:08:46.140 that. It's about whether or not you

01:08:47.640 have the power to shift narrative.

01:08:49.600 Yep. Tiny Rick here says, thoughts on

01:08:52.380 RFK's endorsement of Trump.

01:08:54.820 We kind of, we talked about that at the

01:08:56.640 top there, Tiny Rick, you probably came

01:08:58.960 in late and probably missed that.

01:09:00.440 But just to update you, we kind of both

01:09:02.240 got to the conclusion that obviously

01:09:04.660 this is a good thing and a race this 1.00

01:09:06.680 tight, it could shift things in an

01:09:09.140 important way.

01:09:10.200 But ultimately, most of the decisions

01:09:13.080 that have been made for Trump or Harris

01:09:15.720 are probably already made.

01:09:18.100 And so it's really about turning out

01:09:19.620 your voters more than it is finding a

01:09:22.880 bunch of these undecided people hanging

01:09:24.760 out somewhere in the middle.

01:09:26.540 Yeah, hopefully it brings some new

01:09:28.060 voter turnout, but I'm going to hold

01:09:31.040 my breath.

01:09:33.280 And then Penultimo says, love the show.

01:09:37.840 Please make more shows reading essays

01:09:40.460 like these. They are welcomed over the

01:09:42.860 current things talk.

01:09:44.160 Yeah, I hear you, man.

01:09:44.960 And, you know, obviously this channel

01:09:46.500 started with me explaining political

01:09:49.520 theory and trying to break down some

01:09:52.000 of these concepts.

01:09:52.760 And that's always a focus of the

01:09:54.400 channel. It's why I love having

01:09:55.660 Prudential Hassan for these, because

01:09:57.360 he's also great at going through these

01:09:59.180 essays and pulling them apart and

01:10:01.300 explaining these things.

01:10:02.480 And so that's always going to be a

01:10:03.540 core of the channel.

01:10:04.200 We're always going to do some level of

01:10:05.920 current events.

01:10:06.680 You know, you do, you know, four shows

01:10:08.380 a week.

01:10:08.800 You're going to go after current events.

01:10:10.520 And I do think it's really important

01:10:12.400 to apply the theory.

01:10:14.620 It's good to talk about the theory, but

01:10:16.260 you want to get the practical examples.

01:10:18.400 And so I do my best to weave that in,

01:10:20.320 even when we're talking about current

01:10:22.440 events or current things.

01:10:24.140 We are still talking to them from the

01:10:26.320 position of trying to apply theory, how

01:10:29.160 the philosophy, how the political theory

01:10:30.900 actually gets broken down in the real

01:10:33.500 world.

01:10:34.280 But I appreciate that, man.

01:10:35.860 And hopefully we can continue to bring

01:10:39.020 stuff like that to you, because that's,

01:10:40.680 you know, there are a lot of people who

01:10:42.200 are very good about doing the news of

01:10:43.980 the day and they're very talented at it.

01:10:45.820 And they should do that.

01:10:47.120 And I'm more than happy to let them focus

01:10:48.660 on that while we do stuff that's a little

01:10:51.000 more like this.

01:10:51.660 So appreciate it.

01:10:53.720 We appreciate you guys letting us do it

01:10:55.520 because, you know, obviously not every

01:10:56.900 audience is up for this.

01:10:58.020 So speaks very well of the audience that,

01:11:00.640 you know, we consistently have people

01:11:01.800 showing up and being interested in this

01:11:03.700 type of content because, you know,

01:11:06.140 you certainly could.

01:11:06.880 We certainly could just be going like

01:11:08.300 the new Disney movie.

01:11:09.740 It's the worst, which, you know,

01:11:13.280 we might from time to time

01:11:14.620 because, of course, it is the worst.

01:11:18.040 All right, guys.

01:11:18.640 Well, we're going to go ahead and wrap

01:11:19.740 this up once again.

01:11:21.040 Thank you to the Prudentialist and

01:11:22.360 everyone should check out his work.

01:11:24.980 Make sure that he knows that you love

01:11:26.980 him while he's moving and everything.

01:11:30.360 Follow on Twitter, Substack, YouTube,

01:11:32.480 all of that.

01:11:33.460 Of course, if it's your first time

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01:11:46.560 If you'd like to get these broadcasts

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01:11:52.780 When you do a rating or review really

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01:11:57.100 And of course, if you would like to pick

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01:12:05.460 are sold.

01:12:06.220 Thank you everybody for watching.

01:12:07.440 And as always, I'll talk to you next time.

The Auron MacIntyre Show - August 23, 2024

Partisan Politics as a Game of Chicken ｜ Guest： The Prudentialist ｜ 8⧸23⧸24

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