The Auron MacIntyre Show - Peace in Iran, but Can Trump Keep It？｜ Guest： J. Burden ｜ 6⧸15⧸26

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00:00:30.000 hey everybody how's it going thanks for joining me this afternoon i've got a great stream with a

00:00:34.540 great guest that i think you're really going to enjoy before we get started today i just want to

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00:01:40.740 All right, guys. 0.97

00:01:42.120 We have peace in the Middle East again, maybe, this time, hopefully. 0.97

00:01:48.000 We'll talk about what happened with the peace treaty and if it's actually going to stick with Iran. 0.88

00:01:53.220 And of course, we also had a UFC fight on Donald Trump's birthday here in addition to it kind of leading up to the America 250 celebration.

00:02:03.620 I think the Trump administration has actually made some wise moves heading into the America 250 celebration.

00:02:09.640 But there are a lot of people out there whining about it.

00:02:12.280 So we're going to talk about that as well.

00:02:14.280 Joining me to discuss all of this is Jay Burden.

00:02:17.200 Thank you so much for coming on, man.

00:02:19.160 Yeah, Oran. Happy to be here.

00:02:20.640 Thanks for inviting me.

00:02:22.680 Absolutely.

00:02:23.220 So let's begin with the peace treaty. We've heard about a thousand times that a deal is imminent, a deal is coming, a deal is done.

00:02:31.720 It's only a few minutes away. It'll finally be signed. And that has been a pretty exhausting media cycle to go through over and over again.

00:02:40.440 However, this time it was clear that Donald Trump was pushing for this in advance of the celebration that he wanted to hold.

00:02:48.800 It seemed very clear that he wanted to announce the idea that this deal was done.

00:02:53.740 In addition, the good news is that we actually heard from Iranian media this time that the deal is real, that it is actually happening, that Iran is agreeing to this.

00:03:06.880 So it's not just Trump kind of saying it and starting the media cycle again.

00:03:11.380 This time we seem to have confirmation from state related actors inside Iran that this is actually happening.

00:03:18.800 the response from the neocons

00:03:20.860 is exactly what you expected

00:03:22.480 every one of these people who I told were

00:03:24.700 the true MAGA and the reason

00:03:26.960 that they ultimately got what they want is that

00:03:28.800 they were loyal to Donald Trump no matter what

00:03:30.700 these are the people we had to align ourselves

00:03:32.860 with to get what we wanted

00:03:34.700 ultimately and that we should really 0.78

00:03:36.680 lash ourselves to them

00:03:38.340 as kind of a defining feature of our

00:03:40.740 coalition every single one of them hate

00:03:42.740 Donald Trump now Mark Levin

00:03:44.360 Ben Shapiro all of the

00:03:46.400 people you'd expect are flipping out

00:03:48.760 They're all spinning into despair about this deal.

00:03:52.120 So, you know, every one of them have knifed Donald Trump in response to this, again, making

00:03:58.380 it seem more credible that this deal is actually going to happen.

00:04:01.280 We'll run through what is theoretically some of the details in the deal.

00:04:06.800 But Jay Burden, do you think this one will actually stick?

00:04:11.140 I don't know.

00:04:11.640 I, like many people, have grown weary of this story, mostly just because I've heard it before.

00:04:20.080 It seems that we've been in a ceasefire for most of this war that isn't a war, and yet the bombs

00:04:27.940 keep dropping. It's easy to become very cynical because, hey, wait, I've heard this one before.

00:04:33.880 But as you mentioned earlier, Iranian state media is actually reporting on this. They are saying,

00:04:39.440 yes, we are in talks. The previous round of talks fell apart really due to a baffling

00:04:45.400 set of circumstances where it seems as if the Pakistanis just dropped the ball. 0.99

00:04:51.760 I don't think it's particularly wise to use Pakistan as your international diplomacy partner

00:04:57.500 because apparently something as basic as Google Translate was beyond the diplomats there.

00:05:03.600 But that said, seemingly, Trump is motivated to get this across the finish line.

00:05:10.900 The terms are up in the air.

00:05:13.080 We are hearing different things from different people.

00:05:15.940 Much like anything about this war, getting solid information is very difficult.

00:05:20.900 It's important to mention that this is in two stages.

00:05:25.720 The stage where they will be going over nuclear enrichment, the real kind of technical stuff

00:05:32.240 has been delayed for the next 60 to 90 days, again, depending on who you ask.

00:05:37.060 But currently, it seems like the Trump administration's primary objective is

00:05:41.160 opening the strait. This makes sense for a couple reasons, which is one, this is really the extent

00:05:48.580 to which most people care about this war. It's hurting them at the pump. It's really adding

00:05:54.440 insult to an already tough economic situation for a lot of people. And so relief would be

00:06:01.000 appreciated. We've already seen a downturn in oil prices or oil futures, but we don't need to get

00:06:07.600 too technical about it, which indicates that at least the market thinks that there's something

00:06:11.640 here. Now, okay, the market is effectively a consensus machine derived from what rich people

00:06:18.220 think, but it's a positive sign. Other questions, for instance, as to, you know, will there be cash

00:06:24.680 payments? How will that be disguised? That's sort of up in the air, but really what it comes down to

00:06:30.880 is, can Tehran drive a wedge between us and Israel? Because clearly the Trump administration

00:06:38.580 wants to get out of this. There have been some, although not to the degree that you or I would

00:06:43.960 hope, chafing between Tel Aviv and Washington. We've seen this weird recurring story, much like

00:06:52.420 the weird recurring story of peace talks, which is Donald Trump supposedly going off on Bibi

00:06:57.960 Netanyahu. Do I believe that? Who knows? But it seems like Tehran is playing their cards well to

00:07:04.820 basically try and get us on a different side than Israel. Well, by playing their cards, I effectively 0.97

00:07:11.300 just mean not capitulating, right? We are clearly on a different side of this. And really what it

00:07:17.420 comes down to is the situation in Lebanon. Not to get too technical on it, but Lebanon and Iran

00:07:24.360 are very culturally tied.

00:07:26.520 A large portion of the Lebanese aristocracy,

00:07:30.380 not quite the right word,

00:07:31.300 but we'll go with it,

00:07:32.160 is of Iranian extraction.

00:07:34.200 They have theological ties.

00:07:36.020 And also Hezbollah,

00:07:38.420 they are Iranian proxies.

00:07:41.080 You don't need to be Mark Levin

00:07:42.820 to point that out. 0.65

00:07:44.500 And effectively, Israel has multiple times

00:07:47.880 violated ceasefires

00:07:49.620 to continue a second front

00:07:52.300 of this war in Lebanon. 0.87

00:07:54.360 Iran does not seem to be budging on that. 0.82

00:07:56.860 And it seems as if the determinant factor is if we say we're done, whatever Israel does 0.98

00:08:02.380 in Lebanon is their business, not ours, which is a conclusion I wish we could have reached 0.79

00:08:07.060 months ago, but better late than never. 0.99

00:08:10.500 Yeah, I mean, there's a lot there that we need to unpack.

00:08:13.700 And I agree that ultimately the real question of this entire process is, will Donald Trump

00:08:20.380 separate our interests from Israel's interests? 0.52

00:08:22.500 It's very obvious that Israel has no interest in simply kind of knocking out the capability of Iran. 0.61

00:08:31.280 They want to completely destabilize that country. 0.74

00:08:35.060 As you say, they want basically to seize a lot of land in Lebanon and gain control, take out the proxies there. 0.52

00:08:43.560 And every time we've gotten close to a deal, the response from Israel has basically been to accelerate their warfare in Lebanon. 0.59

00:08:52.500 Not only because, obviously, that is probably the last time they'll have a chance to do that if we leave, but by doing that, they continue to trigger retaliatory attacks from Iran, which then heats the war back up again and makes peace more and more difficult.

00:09:08.320 It's very clear that Israel knows it would have had a very, very difficult, if not impossible time doing what it wants to do without the United States.

00:09:16.020 And so, uh, you know, the, the continued ability to operate with some cover from the U S is very

00:09:22.000 valuable to them. And ultimately, obviously keep the United States locked into that conflict.

00:09:26.280 That's what they want. Uh, I'll just say it again, in case anyone watching the show is unaware,

00:09:30.960 uh, Israel does not care about the United States. You are just a tool for their foreign policy.

00:09:37.120 If the United States could be swapped out with China tomorrow, and it might be, 0.99

00:09:41.440 then they'll do that. Uh, they do not care. They do not care about your country. They do 1.00

00:09:45.860 not care as you people they do not care about your priorities they do not care they care about

00:09:49.860 their priorities and that's fine it's their nation they should care about their priorities

00:09:54.280 but you should not confuse your priorities with their priorities because they certainly do not

00:09:58.900 do that the other direction and so it's very obvious that the key goal for Israel is to

00:10:04.300 continue this disruption that said as you pointed out there's been more and more friction between

00:10:09.900 Donald Trump and BB Netanyahu we now have a confirmed second profanity laden phone call

00:10:15.720 between Trump and Netanyahu over this issue. It's very clear that I think from the minute

00:10:22.840 Trump realized that this war was not going to be over in 72 hours, that he has at some level tried

00:10:30.180 to push this off through Rubio, going out and announcing that Israel kind of pulled us into

00:10:35.800 the war. I don't think that was a mistake. Again, this does not absolve Trump of making this mistake,

00:10:41.060 But ultimately, as you say, the point is, we need to get out as quickly as possible. We need to, you know, kind of undo the ties that have lashed us to these people and let them do whatever they want to do.

00:10:53.300 Israel can go handle its business. And one of the consequences of this war is very likely a 0.76

00:11:01.140 widening of the gulf between Israel and the United States, at least at some level,

00:11:05.660 and a kind of withdraw of America at some level from Middle East interests. Again,

00:11:12.160 none of that will be total. I'm sure we'll still be talking to Israel. I'm sure we'll still be

00:11:16.160 involved in the Middle East at some level. But our bases there have been damaged quite a bit.

00:11:23.300 Our supplies have been drawn down, expended through all of this warfare.

00:11:29.500 And so ultimately, I think we are going to see some distance between kind of the Trump agenda and Israel at this point.

00:11:38.560 I think Trump has been trying to end this war, knowing he made a mistake, put himself in a bad situation for a while now, and has been just doing everything he can to ignore the continued firing between both sides.

00:11:51.880 and effectively it seems like we're more or less doing a deal with iran means we're just kind of

00:11:57.420 walking away like it doesn't seem like israel will be agreeing to deal uh we're basically just

00:12:02.220 signing a piece of paper with the iranian regime saying uh i guess you deal with israel now we're

00:12:07.140 done with this uh which is fine that's more than fine with me i have no interest in trying to you

00:12:13.280 know somehow figure both of these things out simultaneously for them uh so ultimately uh do

00:12:20.720 you think that this will create that distance? Do you think that the United States is just too

00:12:25.960 linked with Israel at this point? I mean, we are talking about possibly additional technology

00:12:32.680 sharing and intelligence gathering and everything being codified in a new bill. Do you think that

00:12:39.320 this will create a wedge or is this just one instance where Trump realizes he had to walk

00:12:45.180 away, but we'll be back in this situation sometime soon. So there are a couple things.

00:12:51.760 One, if we go back to the primary election that Thomas Massey lost, it showed us something really

00:12:59.880 interesting. The popular narrative is the Zoomers versus the Boomers. But that election, which sure 0.93

00:13:08.720 it had a lot to do with Epstein, sure it had a lot to do with different stances towards

00:13:13.880 issues like immigration or loyalty to Trump. But for a lot of people, it was basically about

00:13:20.360 our relationship to Israel. And sure, Ed Galrain won by a large margin. Republican primaries,

00:13:28.140 particularly in deep red areas, skew much older. And it's no shock that those policy positions,

00:13:33.680 which are popular with older voters, carried the day. But if you dig into the data,

00:13:38.640 it's pretty interesting because the break point on that voting pattern, what flips at about 55,

00:13:46.840 this is much more than just, quote unquote, the Zoomers. It must be said the demo that the Trump

00:13:53.380 administration won in 2024 by the widest margin was basically older Gen Xers, kind of 55 to 65,

00:14:02.420 split right down the middle of this issue. And so I think people realize this is a losing

00:14:10.460 issue for the Republican coalition. The Republican coalition is deeply, deeply divided.

00:14:16.020 It is not simply the under 30 crowd on this issue. It did not last 72 hours. It's turned into a bit

00:14:24.000 of a debacle, especially when you throw in the fact that it has worsened the cost of living

00:14:30.680 crisis. So I think that the correct strategy would be to basically forget about foreign policy. It

00:14:38.280 is something that there is broad disagreement about. Now, look, as proven by what Rubio said,

00:14:45.180 to at least a certain degree, Israel is able to tell us to jump. And the question is, well,

00:14:50.480 how high? Now, I think that's wrong on sort of a moral level, but functionally that puts two

00:14:57.320 things in tension. Can you continue to follow that incentive and still stay in office? Obviously,

00:15:04.640 the midterms are going to be a test on that point because, look, there's a decay in any political

00:15:09.940 platform. We understand there's sort of an inevitable back and forth to politics. But I

00:15:15.620 think that there will be a desire, whether from Trump loyalists or at least the next generation

00:15:21.600 of conservatives to push back on this simply because that will be the way you exist in

00:15:27.280 conservative politics. It doesn't matter if you can dump $30 million into a congressional race

00:15:32.960 if there simply aren't the voters to back it up. Now, sure, I realize we all have the same

00:15:39.800 concerns about election integrity. I understand that. But at a certain point, how long can this

00:15:47.460 continue to go on for. We're primarily concerned with trend lines here. And the trend line for

00:15:53.880 America-Israel relations from the perspective of the Likud party is nothing short of apocalyptic.

00:15:59.900 I'm sure you remember what things were like three years ago. They weren't like this. These positions,

00:16:06.100 being skeptical of our relationship to Israel, were extreme minorities. We're going to talk

00:16:12.100 about the America 250 soon, but the fact that champion John Strickland was barred from the

00:16:19.540 event for his positions on Israel and was out with a crowd of people there to see the event,

00:16:26.420 basically carrying him around on their shoulders, indicates that this is no longer an extreme

00:16:31.160 minority position. So has this created a gulf? Yes, clearly. Has that reached the top level of

00:16:38.240 politics. To a lesser degree, but just judging from what my and I assume your sources are telling

00:16:44.580 you, yes, also we're seeing a very similar thing happen in the media landscape. But also, I think

00:16:51.520 it needs to be said that Trump is sensitive to public sentiment. And there are few things as

00:16:57.860 popular as bringing troops home. And so look, what's done is done. This was a mistake. Mistakes

00:17:04.620 can be recovered from. And if one of the terms of this peace is American soldiers coming home,

00:17:11.340 okay, great. That gets us to a peace that's also popular domestically. And does that mean

00:17:17.400 we basically got defeated by Iran? I mean, not in an absolute sense, but we didn't accomplish our 0.75

00:17:23.960 ends. Sure. But at a certain point, you're kind of recognizing the facts on the ground.

00:17:29.540 and when we take into account the depletion of our resources, whether interceptors or ballistic

00:17:35.500 missiles, if we wanted to do this, what would it cost us? Do we have the will, either political

00:17:43.440 or otherwise, to resort to a World War II style motivation to do what? I don't think we do.

00:17:52.020 And short of paying that cost, at a certain point, you need to look at the hands that you've been

00:17:57.200 dealt how you've you know played the previous rounds of the game and say you know what it's

00:18:01.320 much much better to cut our losses and this could be spun into a way that would be popular and to be

00:18:08.020 honest if in three months gas is two dollars a gallon troops are coming home I don't think most

00:18:14.400 people care about this you and I still will people listening to this still will but there weren't

00:18:20.760 thousands of guys coming home in body bags you're very unlikely to know someone who's been killed by

00:18:25.640 this. And so it is a recoverable situation. The question is just, will the president and those

00:18:32.040 around him decide to recover or will they carry on with this sort of embarrassing slavish devotion 0.91

00:18:39.140 to Israel? Yeah, I think those are all good points. And it's correct that the main thing 1.00

00:18:45.920 in November will be the economy. If you're trying to read the tea leaves at all, obviously midterms

00:18:52.460 are always difficult for the incumbent party. But Trump certainly ran on the idea that he was

00:18:57.900 going to address inflation, that he was going to, at some level, address affordability. And

00:19:02.500 for better or worse, the only thing people really care about when it comes to the Iran war is the

00:19:07.160 gas prices. Now, there are far more complicated issues around the economy that might not be

00:19:14.520 resolved simply by lowering the gas prices, and those will still be there. But at least when it

00:19:20.020 comes to the war itself, I think you're right that that will more or less have faded. I think

00:19:25.420 things like the Epstein files will probably have more sticking issue for a lot of people than the

00:19:31.760 war at the end of the day, as long as the economy ends up writing itself. It's still going to be

00:19:36.640 very hard to win the midterms, but at the very least, there will be a chance as where there

00:19:41.220 wouldn't be if the deal was not done. And I think Trump is increasingly aware of that. Also, as you

00:19:48.560 say you know these issues i know a lot of people are you know one of the things that people and

00:19:54.100 look i i have i think i feel been sufficiently clear about how i feel about the level of influence

00:20:00.620 that israel has in the united states but a lot of people really overstate it and they just say that

00:20:05.980 every american institution is entirely bought out by israel and every action is entirely controlled

00:20:11.360 uh one that's just blackpilling in a terrible way to like lock yourself into doing nothing

00:20:17.000 but also it's just not true i know too many of these conservative institutions i knew as you

00:20:22.060 know too much inside baseball this is a rift that has been drawn across every major conservative

00:20:29.600 institution you can think of i promise you if you can think of a conservative institution

00:20:34.660 this disagreement is raging through it right now so i understand like i know yeah there's been a 0.76

00:20:42.160 lot of terms thrown around, panikins, the retard right. I would venture to say, I mean, call me

00:20:49.420 crazy, but I'm going to say maybe the real retard right were the commentators who went out there 0.99

00:20:54.160 and told you that Mark Levin and, you know, Lindsey Graham were your real friends and true 0.99

00:20:59.780 patriots. And they're, you know, they're the ones that we need. If we're going to win anything,

00:21:04.700 get anything done. I actually know every one of those people was lying to you and all of them

00:21:09.820 stabbed you in the back the very minute that trump stopped doing exactly what they wanted to do they

00:21:13.980 were never loyal the only reason that he listened to them was the level of influence that was wielded

00:21:19.260 there uh and uh the idea that all of these people tried to like sigh off you know uh the the the

00:21:26.440 kind of more dissident right or the you know the new right into once again jumping into the neocon

00:21:33.080 basket i mean look i'm not going to run around trying to get people to say i'm sorry i know no

00:21:38.480 one's going to do that they're all going to pretend like they opposed the war from the beginning

00:21:41.680 they're all going to pretend like they were just being loyal to trump uh they'll all pretend that

00:21:46.040 they never said what they said about following neocons and you win with these people and all

00:21:50.960 that stuff they're they're going to lie about all of that and pretend that they uh you know didn't

00:21:55.360 do any of this and see if they can get away with it and it'll probably work um and but like i said

00:22:01.060 I don't expect justice, you know, or vindication. But ultimately, my real question is, do you think that the coalition will heal? There was a lot of bad blood. There's a lot said on both sides. The friend enemy distinction distinction was drawn right through the heart of the MAGA movement, which I think was a horrible mistake and why I encourage people to stop doing that.

00:22:25.420 do you think, I know there are some people who probably went so far and will never come back

00:22:31.620 to Trump after this, but do you think that in general, the MAGA coalition will be able to kind

00:22:36.280 of reform itself without this critical issue dividing it? I think, and look, I say this as

00:22:42.580 someone who's been on the right long enough to have seen this pattern happen before. The issues

00:22:47.200 individually have been different, but we've seen this kind of boom bust cycle. Big win, everyone's

00:22:53.000 on the same team people get bored there's clout to be had and the knives come out now i think it's

00:22:59.100 worth saying that there's been a lot of triumphal triumphalism from the basically the extreme plan 0.99

00:23:06.400 truster side of this saying oh you idiots we didn't get six dollar gas we didn't get nuclear war 0.99

00:23:13.720 everything was fine and i mean okay sure those things didn't happen but it's the same thing as 1.00

00:23:21.240 like, Arun, if I say, hey, man, you probably shouldn't try and fight the cops, you'll get

00:23:26.540 shot. And if you come back to me and you say, well, I only got tased, it's like, well, I mean,

00:23:31.280 okay, I mean, I guess I was wrong, but we're talking about unwise behavior, something you

00:23:35.460 shouldn't do, which if you try it enough, there will be serious consequences for.

00:23:41.260 So I think that we need to keep that in mind, that is there sensationalism? Were there people

00:23:46.680 saying nuclear hellfire, it'll be a Judgment Day style situation. Sure. But the people who were

00:23:53.000 calling out potentially disastrous consequences of unwise behavior, I mean, again, generally

00:24:00.420 speaking, are correct. That is the most common outcome. As towards the coalition itself,

00:24:08.740 I think what we have is you and I have a different perspective on this, the people listening to it,

00:24:14.480 because we are hyper engaged, we are more involved in this and we associate a lot of different

00:24:20.460 personalities with this debate. There are no doubt podcasters, Twitter accounts that you

00:24:25.980 were personally angry at for their position on this issue. To be honest, man, most people aren't

00:24:31.640 like that. Do I think that there is a real divide in MAGA? A hundred percent. Am I very much on one

00:24:37.760 side of that. Also, yes, very true. But I think for a lot of people, if the Trump administration

00:24:45.400 is America 250, is an economy that is at least some degree of functional, there's a widespread

00:24:52.740 consensus that things are going in the right direction. Yeah, I think that is recoverable.

00:24:59.000 It bears mention that there have been pretty significant changes to voting maps that may well

00:25:04.000 offset a fraying base. To what degree, we don't know yet, but it is entirely possible that because

00:25:11.720 of those changes to the game map, if you will, we might not see the sort of apocalypse some have

00:25:19.800 been predicting. Because we always have to remember, just by virtue of listening to this,

00:25:24.420 you care so much more than most people do, and it's a mistake to project your level of

00:25:29.620 involvement upon everyone else. Do I wish that were different? Sure. But look, we're interested

00:25:36.380 in how things are, not how they ought to be. And we must understand we're in a minority position.

00:25:42.460 On the media landscape, I really don't think there's any healing that. I think that the

00:25:47.680 generational divide with media is sort of a fait accompli. It's done. And you're seeing

00:25:53.660 sort of the old guard competing for a smaller and smaller fraction of a diminishing pie.

00:25:59.700 Simply look at all of the information that came out of the Daily Wire, for example.

00:26:04.260 Not looking to throw stones, but clearly we're seeing some business models are succeeding,

00:26:08.540 others are not.

00:26:09.840 So this is a divide, but on the national politics level, given the law of large numbers, if

00:26:15.540 you will, I think it could be.

00:26:18.200 Now, the question is, of course, what comes next?

00:26:20.820 And that's been an open question for two years now, if not longer.

00:26:24.900 That's where I think we're going to start seeing the divide getting even nastier, to

00:26:28.240 be honest, because then there's real power on the line. But I think the danger, of course, is

00:26:33.620 Trump, at least as of current writing, has alienated some core voting blocs he needs.

00:26:40.940 Men under 40 and then by extension under 30. The white working class is not particularly happy.

00:26:47.100 They are net disapproving of Trump for the first time in, I mean, 10 years, plus or minus.

00:26:53.100 And of course, that means what if the election occurred today? Well, it isn't occurring today.

00:26:58.240 there's some runway, there's some time to fix it. And how many of those people are upset because of

00:27:03.120 our hyper-specific foreign policy disagreements? Some, but not most. So I do think it is

00:27:08.940 recoverable, Lauren. I think that's correct. I think, as you say, the average MAGA voter

00:27:14.940 was more than willing to kind of get back behind Trump as soon as possible, and that the Iran war

00:27:22.320 is not the central thing for them as long as the economy heals uh it would you know as you as you

00:27:30.280 say i do hope that trump gets away with this like i do of course hope that ultimately the republicans

00:27:35.560 do you know maintain uh their position uh that they do not lose not because they're going to do

00:27:41.400 anything of significance but simply because it keeps us from just having trump turn into a lame

00:27:46.440 duck who's constantly fighting against uh impeachment and other investigations uh but you

00:27:52.000 know let's not make no mistake we got nothing out of this uh conflict except spending you know tens

00:27:58.980 of billions maybe hundreds of billions depending on how the peace deal is done uh you know but

00:28:04.380 blowing a large amount of political capital that could have been used on deportations and far more

00:28:09.380 critical domestic issues uh and of course let's not forget very the most costly thing 14 i believe

00:28:15.160 or 15 American lives in combat and you know obviously not a Vietnam style number but 14

00:28:22.440 people who did not need to die for a war that was entirely driven on the interests of another

00:28:28.160 country and this is something that again is not good even if you get away with it so yes I'm sure 0.97

00:28:34.820 that there are somewhere people who are saying oh you you foolish panicans everything was fine 0.94

00:28:40.820 but as you say you know just because you made a terrible mistake and got away with it doesn't 0.96

00:28:45.540 mean that the lesson is therefore we should just continue down this road and I was correct the

00:28:50.220 entire time I'm sure that's how it will be spun I'm sure that's how it's being spun right now

00:28:54.300 but I think anybody with eyes to see and a shred of credibility will recognize that this was a 0.65

00:29:01.100 foolish move that said I really hope that this peace deal is done I really hope the war is done 0.57

00:29:06.980 And I really hope we get back to domestic issues. I want to be rooting for the Trump administration in all of these things. I do not want to be in any way in opposition to these people. I just need them to have the priorities of my country set before pleasing possible foreign lobbies. 0.96

00:29:23.720 And it would really, really be great if people running around and insulting people didn't treat this as some form of victory for them when it is obviously a disaster that they championed at every level and tried to drive people out for opposing, even though they were obviously wrong from the entire from the moment that we began, because this was the most predictable outcome in human history.

00:29:46.880 That said, I do want to look at the theoretical terms that that Iran is advertising on their state media. I want to make it very clear to everyone. This is Iran's accusation of what is going to or, you know, this is their story about what is going to be in the deal.

00:30:04.420 obviously this is the most speculative of speculative take all of this with an incredibly

00:30:09.700 large grain of salt this does not mean i'm sure that in many ways they are just putting out what

00:30:14.260 they want to be in the deal and not what donald trump has agreed to but it is so far the only

00:30:18.440 information that we have uh regarding this so i want to take a look at it real quick let me put

00:30:24.320 it up on the screen here all right so so far from uh iranian media we're hearing that 12 billion of

00:30:32.940 iran's uh frozen funds to be released before negotiations begin with another 12 billion

00:30:38.480 during the 60-day final negotiation window oil and petrochemical sanctions suspended

00:30:44.120 full naval blockade lifted within 30 days as you're saying jay obviously this is like the

00:30:50.000 most important thing to both sides this is kind of like the initial okay everybody just gets the

00:30:55.720 economic relief they're looking for and then we'll hash everything else later because those are

00:30:59.700 harder issues so america gets the straight open back up without tolls and iran basically gets

00:31:05.600 24 billion dollars of its own money uh back you know released from sanctions so that's the key

00:31:11.180 thing for trump uh you know he needs to be seen as not giving money to the iranians that was the

00:31:16.320 whole opposition to the barack obama deal primarily that was the bad optics the pallets of cash he does

00:31:22.420 not want to see that the releasing of sanctions is a fundamentally different thing so i think that

00:31:26.760 stuff is all very likely to happen. The U.S. commits to non-interference in Iranian affairs,

00:31:32.840 withdraws forces from Iran and Iran, and no new sanctions or forced deployments during

00:31:37.620 negotiations. Again, I think that's more or less what Trump wants anyway, so I think that part

00:31:41.800 will probably also be agreed to. The immediate ceasefire is required on all fronts, including

00:31:46.420 Lebanon. Strait of Hamuz reopens within 30 days after under Iranian arrangements. Again, that's

00:31:53.080 going to be a sticking point that will be difficult i don't think the united states is

00:31:56.440 basically going to do anything to physically stop israel i don't think unfortunately they're even

00:32:01.540 going to remove support from israel otherwise so i'm not sure if they can compel israel

00:32:07.680 to actually cease their attacks in lebanon and if if iran makes that a requirement a binding

00:32:15.400 requirement america that could be a huge issue i just think bb netanyahu is going to betray trump

00:32:21.140 at every level at every moment and every opportunity uh because he's a terrible ally

00:32:25.140 uh and we'll we'll stab you in the back the minute that you he has the opportunity so uh that will be

00:32:31.160 i think very touch and go uh we also have iran reaffirms this npt commitment non-proliferation

00:32:37.460 proliferate i can say words today non-proliferation tree uh commitment not to produce nuclear weapons

00:32:45.440 a 60-day window is set to negotiate a final deal covering nuclear issues and full sanctions

00:32:52.360 removal this one is going to be the one that will be I don't I kind of doubt that Trump even

00:32:58.500 initially agreed to this at all but Iran is claiming U.S. and allies must present

00:33:04.640 reconstruction plans worth at least 300 billion dollars that's the sticking point that's the

00:33:09.200 pallets of cash if if Trump agrees to this that's going to be a complete disaster and humiliation

00:33:15.280 for the united states um so even though i am very much in hopes that this that we will have a peace

00:33:22.380 deal i don't i hope we do not do that agreeing to that isn't a complete disaster and should pretty

00:33:27.600 much be a no-go uh at every level iran's missile program and support for resistance groups are

00:33:33.440 removed from the agenda entirely no final negotiations begin until the 12 billion is

00:33:39.000 released. Oil sanctions are suspended. A blockade is lifted. A supervisory mechanism will oversee

00:33:45.800 implementation with any final agreement approved by the UN Security Council. So what are your

00:33:52.300 initial reactions to those terms? I mean, honestly, genuinely, Aaron, I feel like this is

00:33:59.740 one of those things that we are unlikely to know for a long time. For instance, even the $300

00:34:06.900 billion dollars i would be shocked if that is directly done but given the amount of uh trade

00:34:15.860 deals and foreign investment there's a whole lot of ways to hide that right and let's also be honest

00:34:22.820 money is fake we can just print more of it i don't think that's a good thing but to me

00:34:28.740 what it really comes down to is the straight of poor moves and the nuclear stuff

00:34:31.860 stuff the fact that the support for foreign allies has been kicked off the agenda indicates that

00:34:37.960 we're starting to see a gap between the U.S. and Israel Israel views that as a deal breaker just

00:34:42.620 look at their stuff happening currently in Lebanon if the Americans are at least talking

00:34:47.660 about it it indicates to them it is not a deal breaker that may be the sort of wedge forming 0.55

00:34:53.680 your points about Israel being a horrible ally in complete and total agreement obviously it is a

00:35:00.780 disaster for us if the strait remains closed. That is causing problems for us. That needs to

00:35:05.580 be fixed. Hezbollah, I mean, look, man, I'm sure they're a problem. They don't really feel like a 1.00

00:35:13.520 problem to me. High gas prices do. And so to me, I can't really hazard a guess as to say which will

00:35:23.040 be the sticking points other than the obvious ones. But the fact that we've seen some things

00:35:28.460 falling off both sides of the demands indicates that there's some negotiations going on,

00:35:33.780 but I have no insight past anyone else with a Twitter account.

00:35:38.220 Yeah. And again, I want to remind people, this is purely from Iran. There are likely

00:35:43.660 significant falsehoods or exaggerations in here, but this is just the only terms we've seen. So

00:35:50.940 that's the only reason we're talking about them. But do not take this as some kind of,

00:35:54.840 you know this is what we're doing you know we 100 buy this report this is we're just reviewing what

00:36:00.640 they have put out there uh in the initial reflections we're supposed to see the memorandum

00:36:05.600 of understanding here uh in a couple days it sounds like uh so hopefully we will but ultimately

00:36:12.120 this is kind of just all we have to go on all right so enough with the iran war we are all

00:36:17.520 absolutely horrifically tired of talking about that all right so the next thing i want to talk

00:36:23.020 about is america 250 so obviously uh we have the 250th anniversary of the country coming up

00:36:29.760 uh very exciting time uh for patriots uh you know i don't care what anybody says uh you know i love

00:36:36.480 this country i love the symbolism i love the embrace of patriotism in the united states uh

00:36:42.460 you're just never maybe maybe i am simply the chud of chuds uh but i will be so proudly you

00:36:47.900 will never shame me for that these are my people this is my place uh and when it's our anniversary

00:36:52.300 I am going to celebrate and everybody else can go pound sand.

00:36:55.920 That said, you know, the Trump administration being in charge of this during, you know, or being in charge of the country during this event is critical. 0.99

00:37:04.000 If it had been Kamala Harris, we would have had a nightmare of, you know, just, you know, talking about how evil the country is and how it's going to honor trans children. 0.93

00:37:13.580 And so the attempt to kind of celebrate this has been a little stop start. 0.52

00:37:19.360 the Trump administration didn't have a great opening when it was talking about the concert

00:37:23.680 that they wanted to put on famously there were a bunch of has-beens on there including like

00:37:27.640 Milli Vanilli there's only one guy left the other guy shot himself and the one who's there was

00:37:32.100 famous for never singing any of the songs so you know it was it was really bad and then everybody

00:37:37.700 just bailed out of the concert anyway due to political pressure so that one was quite an

00:37:42.740 embarrassment I think that the Trump administration has really made a better choice here

00:37:49.280 instead of trying to kind of ape all of the blue state uh status symbols trying to bring in movie

00:37:58.120 stars or music acts uh you know even something like a symphony you know a lot of people kind

00:38:03.160 of wanted uh you know this to you know that oh we need to class up this fair instead they're like

00:38:07.480 you know what we're just gonna go red states you know uh carnival like state fair on this like we

00:38:13.680 are going to celebrate everything that americans love uh here's a little bit of uh the uh the

00:38:19.740 moto cross happening in front of the white house here uh with uh you know these these tricks being

00:38:26.260 performed in front of the white house uh they also held a ufc uh fight yesterday uh uh and a lot of

00:38:35.880 people were complaining about this i'm going to play a little bit of it um uh i don't know you

00:38:40.680 if this will trigger youtube copyright so i'm be careful the ufc is infamously uh strict with

00:38:47.180 copyright stuff well we're just going to stick with the the national anthem here but i want

00:38:51.320 everybody to kind of see the the end here

00:38:53.240 oh say does that star-spangled banner yet

00:39:09.320 Now, a lot of people were giving, you know, the Trump administration a lot of guff on this. 0.97

00:39:32.700 Oh, this is trashy. Oh, this is immature. 0.98

00:39:36.040 where you're having all the you know these fights on the white house lawn uh many of many of these

00:39:41.120 people obviously are not familiar with the history of the united states or andrew jackson uh but uh

00:39:46.200 you know that they were out there uh you know complaining about it or calling this stuff cheesy

00:39:50.620 you know here they had a eagle flying out uh over the crowd and returning a bald eagle i'm sorry

00:39:57.780 man i think this stuff is cool i think this is a good idea i think this is a wise move from the

00:40:02.940 trump administration to lean into this patriotism don't try to do that you know they're going to

00:40:08.160 have a rodeo uh the you know the whole deal i think this is the way to go celebrate real america

00:40:14.920 celebrate americana you know you have the marine band you have gladiatorial fights and you know

00:40:21.320 in front of the white house you know that we are rome you know live it love it you know embrace it

00:40:26.500 i i don't know what do you think jay i think this is the wise move well i'm gonna be honest i'm

00:40:32.040 really mad uh because i didn't get to watch the fight card tonight because of american airlines

00:40:38.680 really not happy about it and uh catching up on the fights uh it was honestly it was a great card

00:40:45.640 uh there was a lot of dooming coming from both progressives and people particularly jilted by

00:40:50.900 the trump administration which again i consider myself in that camp you know i've not been happy

00:40:55.700 with the direction on certain issues but it went off well uh obviously you had a great night of

00:41:03.240 fights uh particularly well-managed card on kind of the the sport side of it i realize i'm a massive

00:41:09.060 nerd about that we don't have to go into it but also at the top of the card you had a huge underdog

00:41:15.240 upset an american fighter one defying the odds as one uh user on twitter quoted uh taporia was

00:41:24.500 supposed to win on paper, but Justin Gaethje can't read. And it was really a historic upset.

00:41:31.320 And there were a number of these sort of iconic moments. You've seen one of a fighter,

00:41:36.520 admittedly a Brazilian, standing on the edge of the cage with Trump out of focus in the background,

00:41:41.240 the White House, the lights, a cool image, sort of living Fortnite character. Sean O'Malley had

00:41:48.860 another iconic KO, knocks the guy out and salutes the flag. Usual suspects were saying he was

00:41:55.240 throwing a Roman as somewhat of a subject matter expert. He was not. But point is, there were a 0.82

00:42:02.020 number of these kind of iconic moments from the actual fight itself. And I think it's important,

00:42:07.840 much like the commentary around the MAGA divide, we're a minority, right? The Trump administration

00:42:16.780 is playing to chud america and this works right particularly for you know young just normal red 0.78

00:42:25.160 blooded men they see this stuff and yeah it kicks ass it's awesome and so i think that it's also

00:42:31.900 important to to mention that i understand why a lot of people felt insulted like really this is

00:42:37.980 what you're trying to do come on man and fair enough but look again we are hyper involved

00:42:46.880 a lot of these complaints don't really reach outside of rarefied political circles

00:42:51.240 and also i think the fact that there was this big celebration on at least the night that peace with

00:42:57.940 iran was tentatively floated means that if it does move towards a peace people will retroactively

00:43:04.840 feel much better about this now if it turns out to be a nothing burger if it turns back into same

00:43:10.860 old same old you know grinding will they won't they conflict in iran and continuing continually

00:43:17.460 worsen economy i think this will age very poorly because i think it will be seen as they sort of

00:43:22.440 let them eat cake and sure it's fun sure it's cool but if it's all we're getting i think many

00:43:27.780 people will turn on it whereas if it's seen as a momentary unpleasantness right as someone said

00:43:34.780 about another conflict. And then this was a turning point. Again, I think that that has a

00:43:38.960 profound amount of narrative significance. I think that also, and it's funny, my friend Lee,

00:43:48.620 who's on the Cogwar Journal substack, wrote a really funny satirical piece about this,

00:43:56.000 you know, kind of mocking the sort of hand-wringing conservative tone of,

00:43:59.400 oh, this savagery. Can you imagine? That's not a great look, right? It comes across as,

00:44:07.280 you know, kind of weak and pearl clutching. And I will say it again, I have my criticisms of the

00:44:12.220 Trump administration, but are you really trying to convince me that the based cool right-wing

00:44:17.360 opinion is to argue about the sanctity of Washington DC architecture, right? Like,

00:44:24.020 dude, I've seen this one before. I simply don't care. I genuinely don't care. And if we're going

00:44:29.160 to do a celebration hey look it came with the best fight card of the year i'll take it when you travel

00:44:35.620 well your klm royal dutch airlines ticket takes you to more than just your destination it takes

00:44:42.140 you to front row views voices lost in the music and new shared memories and when the last song

00:44:49.940 fades welcome aboard the klm royal dutch airlines crew is here to ensure your journey home hits all

00:44:57.800 the right notes klm royal dutch airlines when you travel travel well yeah i would say my only

00:45:06.760 complaint is that it was behind the paywall i mean not that you know if you're a ufc fan you

00:45:11.020 already don't have this but like it is the celebration of the country guys like maybe this

00:45:15.940 one you know you you give people a free trial and at least let them you know uh enjoy it or you know

00:45:20.920 use as an advertising thing for paramount but otherwise you know at least at least give people

00:45:24.720 access here's what i will say orin you know people have theories about who really you know

00:45:31.760 controls the system of usury shall we say but the real answer is tko holding group who owns both the

00:45:38.200 wwe and the ufc uh an absolutely perfidious company uh really you can insult them and it

00:45:46.340 rolls like water off a duck's bat they are the worst and so i'm not surprised they tried to 0.54

00:45:51.080 basically uh mortgage a piece of american history although i will say if you're particularly skilled

00:45:56.780 at sailing the high seas maybe you got out of it no more commentary there yeah uh easy enough to

00:46:02.560 find if you want to put the effort in uh but yeah overall i just think this is the wise move because

00:46:07.340 look you've got to understand in a moment like this that the left is so hyper uh opposed to trump

00:46:14.700 that they're going to sabotage any effort to celebrate the country like obviously they hate

00:46:21.400 the country anyway they hate the people they hate the founding they hate the values they hate the

00:46:25.220 christianity uh but they also will use every uh opportunity to screw trump himself and so anything

00:46:33.360 they control from music you know symphonies uh you know plays whatever hollywood all the things

00:46:40.100 left control they're going to shut down so all the you know people i get it they want they're

00:46:45.720 like i want a higher brow celebration of this well yeah we'll put aside for a moment whether

00:46:51.220 that's reflective of america or american history anyway but even if that was desirable you don't

00:46:57.500 control any of those functions of culture but you do control the ufc you do control the rodeo

00:47:04.840 You do have control of these cultural touchstones.

00:47:09.020 So bring them like that.

00:47:11.160 That's just the smart play.

00:47:12.540 It's much better to have a successful, exciting, high visibility UFC fight than it is to have a failed concert of has-beens, right?

00:47:23.000 Like that looks terrible.

00:47:24.520 This looks great.

00:47:25.940 I shouldn't have to explain to anybody why you want to win instead of lose.

00:47:30.180 So even if you think that for some reason this is beneath us all, like you absolutely should recognize the political reality of what the Trump administration can bring to bear.

00:47:39.080 And this is what they can bring to bear. And you know what? It's cool. So just do that and stop bellyaching about all this stuff you can't change.

00:47:45.780 You weren't going to get a tour of like, you know, high art and, you know, you know, some kind of drama performance or, you know, a high dollar concert with popular artists.

00:47:55.720 taylor swift's not showing up for for uh you know donald trump even though i don't understand why

00:48:00.720 that would be any classier than a ufc fight but either way the point is you can control what you

00:48:05.700 can control so use your allies use the things that are yours and by the way as somebody who cares a

00:48:10.440 lot more about ufc fights than you know crappy pop stars i'd much rather see this i think this

00:48:16.600 is far more reflective of red america than you know whatever you want to put on from uh any given

00:48:22.900 I don't know, New York performance. It just makes more sense to me.

00:48:27.260 Two things. One, any political event which leads to someone on White House grounds saying Michelle

00:48:34.200 Obama is a man is well worth whatever it costs to put it on. And two, I think it's important to say

00:48:40.380 that a lot of politics works kind of like the dog park, right? By leaving a cent there,

00:48:48.540 you were marking it as not safe for the other team, right? And the leftists understand this.

00:48:56.500 It's the reason that they go after our symbols and they replace them with tacky nonsense garbage 0.98

00:49:03.620 that are their symbols, right? When the Biden administration has a topless trans woman, 1.00

00:49:10.540 what are they doing? They're saying, this is our turf, right? It's like gangland marking. 0.97

00:49:15.200 is it classy sure no but uh is america really a classy democracy anymore right is this the era of

00:49:25.840 august statesmen debating each other no and also there is a real functional benefit to basically

00:49:31.360 saying like no this is ours it's not yours anymore and is that super intellectual no it's not

00:49:38.640 but also uh if you don't like it like literally just stop talking about it that's a way better

00:49:45.200 And as much as I hate to say this, it's a better look than the kind of like hand wringing over it, which is going to be honest, kind of annoying.

00:49:54.420 And look, you know, you shouldn't be socially checking all of your opinions in that way.

00:49:59.480 It's not my point.

00:50:00.580 But to say that, look, yeah, sure, there is a congruity between what the Biden administration did and what the Trump administration is doing.

00:50:08.520 But that serves a utility.

00:50:10.500 You were marking it out as yours. 1.00

00:50:12.580 And in the same way that Florida has done great work driving libtards out through laws that, let's be honest, don't even really affect them, but signal you were not welcome here, that same strategy applies elsewhere. 0.99

00:50:26.660 Do I think that was the reason they decided to do this? 1.00

00:50:29.900 No, I think they decided to do it because it was kind of cool.

00:50:34.620 But I think it bears repeating that this sort of chest beating should not be the end of politics, right?

00:50:40.640 You and I have both talked about how conservatives tend to have that fault, but that is an appropriate

00:50:45.980 activity in certain circumstances, sort of marking what is yours.

00:50:51.480 You know what?

00:50:52.440 Speaking of a culture that we do own, I just recognized that a Donald Trump endorsed Marty

00:50:58.540 the Elder won his primary.

00:51:00.880 And one thing we absolutely control is the music to Halo.

00:51:04.120 And so we should 100% have Marty conducting an orchestra playing the suite of the Halo soundtrack as part of the celebration.

00:51:15.060 I think that would be absolutely up.

00:51:17.260 And why not have a bunch of 18 year olds, you know, making the sort of the Halo run in a Humvee right up the lawn?

00:51:24.920 Like, why not? You know, like, look, like American politics has been stupid for longer than I've been alive. 0.99

00:51:30.680 like it's a lost battle guys you know might as well at least have fun with it so i also want to 0.97

00:51:37.480 show just a little bit of juxtaposition right when obviously you have the super bowl performance and

00:51:42.200 then we had the tp usa counter programming with kid rock and there was a lot of controversy over

00:51:47.100 whether that was you know smart and you know that you put that on uh but you know obviously when you

00:51:52.500 have to put on counter programming you're reacting right and it always has some air of kind of

00:51:57.660 chasing the more popular thing. Well, the Democrats were counter-programming with this

00:52:02.500 yesterday. We got a little bit of Bette Midler. So guys, when that's what the left is doing, 0.62

00:52:24.120 while you're holding a sweet ufc fight uh you're winning the end like that is that's this is what

00:52:30.800 winning looks like i'm not saying this is a the turning of the tide i'm not saying this is the

00:52:34.940 final battle and we are entirely victorious but i'm sorry like when you when you are doing that

00:52:39.920 at the white house and the libs are doing this as the counter programming you have won the culture

00:52:45.540 war in that moment that's it like that you know that's the only argument you need in my eyes

00:52:50.040 yeah i mean uh look the the supreme advantage we have is that the left is a profoundly

00:52:58.520 embarrassing institution like they just do stuff like this all on our own i mean we didn't have to

00:53:04.080 ask them and again i'm not trying to say that the white house 250 plays well with all audiences

00:53:10.340 but if we're looking at the same groups of people that pose a danger risk for the trump

00:53:15.600 administration, which is basically the under 55 crowd, particularly men and white working class

00:53:23.180 voters, play to them, right? Don't play to university professors. Don't play to, you know,

00:53:30.900 in the same way we can recognize that the Trump administration playing to certain ethnic blocks is 0.99

00:53:35.800 a fool's errand. At a certain point, you got to understand you got to play to your base.

00:53:40.820 And that is Trump's base, regardless of really how you feel about it.

00:53:46.320 All right, guys, we are going to head to the questions of the people which are stacking

00:53:50.460 up quite a bit.

00:53:51.220 But before we do, Mr. Burden, where can everyone find your excellent work?

00:53:55.160 Yeah, so my primary output is the Jay Burden Show.

00:53:57.760 You can find it anywhere you listen to podcasts.

00:54:00.280 Aaron, you and I have done a number of episodes there.

00:54:02.600 Most recent one is with Kevin Deanna, someone you and I were just hanging out with, where

00:54:07.220 we go over the Austin Metcalf case.

00:54:09.460 So if you're interested, Jay Burden, anywhere you listen to podcasts.

00:54:13.180 Yeah, we managed to not get trapped in an airport an entire day this time.

00:54:18.780 Yeah, but the curse keeps going.

00:54:20.700 You and I were in a car with Harry Robinson of the Lotus Eaters, and we were joking about

00:54:25.400 the last time you and I drove to the airport together, which was a massive debacle.

00:54:29.180 And oh, you know, we're cursed anytime we're in the car together.

00:54:31.960 You got out fine.

00:54:33.740 I got kind of a medium level of airport distress.

00:54:38.380 and at least as of the last time I've heard

00:54:40.900 which is about 11 this morning

00:54:42.080 Harry is still in Atlanta so the curse

00:54:44.740 lives on we've just kind of moved it from

00:54:46.840 host to host the point is

00:54:48.780 you and I should never hang out again

00:54:50.120 well I like the idea

00:54:52.660 that much like a horror movie you know where like

00:54:54.640 you have to kill somebody to like transfer

00:54:56.660 the curse forever something I mean I managed 0.98

00:54:58.880 to just like you know drop that

00:55:00.760 on Harry doom him to the Atlanta airport

00:55:02.900 for eternity and

00:55:04.520 escaped you know scot-free so

00:55:06.780 uh as much as i feel for him right now i i am ultimately very glad and i hope that means i

00:55:14.120 have been purged of this the brits thought suez was bad but we gave them the arn burden airline

00:55:20.320 curse a much worse disgrace hopefully he's the carrier which means it's now at least off the

00:55:26.000 continent but uh we'll have to see i guess yeah yeah now now what's going to happen is the rest

00:55:30.300 of the lotus seeders will be trapped in airports forever you and i will travel normally and we'll

00:55:34.660 know exactly what happened you know we'll just we'll just see uh carl benjamin and and faraz

00:55:39.140 you know like complaining about being trapped in airports over and over again and we'll know

00:55:43.580 that we were responsible ultimately for uh moving that across the continent

00:55:47.460 all right let's go to the people here all right um uh bombing bombing glue uh maybe i did my best

00:55:59.560 uh what's behind the door mr burden money will keep flowing to israel until the door behind you

00:56:04.880 is open oh it's actually not particularly interesting uh it is a uh cry jpc my old

00:56:12.900 computer and then some audio equipment and printer paper it's just a closet it's not that interesting

00:56:18.080 well and that one dead hooker so well you know yeah i said i was late coming back from the 1.00

00:56:24.420 airport that's really what i meant all right indeed indeed uh alexandra and stuff says

00:56:30.020 interesting power flex uh how no one actually believes the peace deal comes until iran

00:56:35.180 confirms it yeah uh that is an unfortunate part of uh trump's messaging strategy i understand he

00:56:42.840 was trying to keep the markets uh steady throughout the week so he kept announcing deals when they may

00:56:47.780 or may not have been coming uh but you know there is a bit of a boy that cried wolf effect there

00:56:52.460 where now, ironically, the only time Americans trust that a peace deal might actually be coming

00:56:58.520 is when Iran tells you, because they are somehow the slightly more credible actor,

00:57:04.580 at least when it comes to whether or not peace deals are on the horizon.

00:57:08.900 So, yeah, I mean, obviously very unfortunate.

00:57:12.720 Hopefully that is not a long-term thing, but the irony is there.

00:57:17.260 philosophical thirst worm says viden did the same kayfabe literally with uh barack ravid too i uh

00:57:27.620 i'm so angry at bb gerr i'm cussing him out uh while doing everything bb wanted yeah i mean to

00:57:33.780 be fair i did i think those people probably didn't like bb and yahoo either uh but that doesn't mean

00:57:39.440 that uh they had the wherewithal to ultimately defy him i'm not saying that uh israel has lost

00:57:45.900 all influence in the united states that even netanyahu will ever get never get what he wants

00:57:49.580 again in the united states i am not saying that i am saying however it does seem that the

00:57:54.040 frustration is genuine again just looking at the actions of trump if trump just wanted to continue

00:58:00.160 the iran war indefinitely uh for the sake of israel he's had about a thousand excuses to do

00:58:06.600 that iran has violated the ceasefire fire about a billion times which is to be fair as often as

00:58:12.000 Israel has. But the point is, if Trump needed an excuse to stay in the war or escalate the war,

00:58:18.200 he's had it for a long time. So I do think the friction is genuine. Will it ultimately

00:58:22.940 create the kind of rupture that I think would ultimately be healthy for the United States

00:58:27.600 in that relationship? I don't know, but I don't think it's entirely made up either.

00:58:32.440 uh sink ssk says ambassador carl doll is willing to allow iran's nuclear program to go forward

00:58:43.020 to return to a uh in return for a persian luger from 1934 is that in 32 caliber is that would

00:58:51.520 would carl even be who knows probably all i will say is i don't think carl speaks farsi although

00:58:58.660 to be honest it wouldn't be entirely surprising either but i doubt he could he could do a worse

00:59:05.280 job at facilitating negotiations than the nation of pakistan so you know what maybe we just decide

00:59:11.760 all right all negotiations will go through a pseudonymous online author i mean can you imagine

00:59:18.180 it going worse i think this idea has promise reasonable points reasonable points all around

00:59:23.080 uh uh don zaglu says uh happy early birthday to usa 250 years together indeed

00:59:31.580 uh thirstworm says uh desperately need uh things to bring maha back on board but the neocons are 0.83

00:59:39.760 rats who consume all political capital i think trump is out of gas i mean all of that is possible

00:59:46.060 but i do think that i think i i mean i hope i desperately hope the lesson everyone learns from

00:59:53.900 this is never trust neocons never trust anyone tells you to trust neocons anyone tells you you

00:59:59.480 need neocons that you'll need them for your political coalition that you'll somehow gain

01:00:03.940 something by doing their bidding they are lying to you if there is one thing you should learn

01:00:08.780 from this it's that these people are completely untrustworthy every one of them to a man is

01:00:13.300 stabbing Trump in the back right now because they think they're not going to get what they want.

01:00:16.740 You should never trust these people. You should never be involved with these people. I really,

01:00:20.060 really hope that's clear. That said, I really do agree that Maha is critical to this coalition.

01:00:25.260 I think that people have not paid enough attention to it, have not, you know, kind of thrown them

01:00:29.380 enough bones. You know, people are even talking about the possibility of RFK kind of like being

01:00:34.060 run out of position. I don't know if there's any credibility to that. I hope not. But ultimately,

01:00:39.380 you should not disrespect that aspect of the coalition because I do think it is critical.

01:00:43.300 florida henry says all the trump flags and signs will have disappeared in the oil fields uh that

01:00:52.900 is an interesting observation uh i don't know if that's reflective of a wider position uh but i do

01:00:59.940 think that this cost him something and this is why i think people running around saying hey the

01:01:04.260 people warned you of about everything that would happen and predicted exactly this outcome they're 0.99

01:01:08.900 the retard right no i think i think the retards are the people who told trump that he should 1.00

01:01:13.840 expend all of this political capital and that we should you know completely be on board with that 0.98

01:01:18.600 and that this is a smart move and it'll all be fine again i hope this does not have larger

01:01:22.780 consequences i hope the gop you know scrapes this one out i'm not wishing for anyone to lose as a

01:01:29.360 consequence of this but if you know if the lesson you take away from this is oh well then this all

01:01:35.140 turned out fine and it was okay. And the people were panicking were wrong the whole time. Uh,

01:01:39.480 well then you obviously extracted the very opposite of the real lesson.

01:01:45.900 Yeah. I mean, I think that as far as, you know, political decay, I've certainly seen that along

01:01:53.320 generational lines where the older crowd seems to be more enraptured than ever with Trump.

01:01:59.660 and that gets increasingly less likely the further down you go uh obviously it's a massive country

01:02:06.860 highly variable but look to be honest i don't even think it's that people are becoming democrats i

01:02:13.360 think they're checking out first word says unbelievable how uh a much better deal we had

01:02:20.320 on the table before this with trump the trump method compared to now except uh bb to use all

01:02:26.380 tools to stop it yeah again like this is why you don't last yourself to another country especially

01:02:32.180 one that is as unstable as israel uh but like yeah once again put a coin in the george washington

01:02:38.760 was right jar like you cannot take remove your sovereignty by you know having deep allies like

01:02:45.400 this you're not supposed to that's why he warned us against exactly this whether it's israel or the

01:02:49.940 UK or the you know Ukraine or whoever like you should never ever ever tie yourself and your

01:02:57.580 ability to make decisions to another nation and that's exactly what happened that's why Trump had

01:03:01.940 the level of difficulty that he did doesn't mean he does everything Netanyahu tells him to that's

01:03:06.480 not what I'm saying and it's never what I've said but obviously when you have basically handed the

01:03:11.260 power to disrupt your peace talks to another country who has very different goals and interests

01:03:17.000 than you do, you have greatly increased your chance of failure. And Trump is going to get a

01:03:22.960 worse deal than he would have if he had just been on his own because he can't control his military

01:03:28.000 ally. That is a huge problem. We should just not be involving ourselves with these people in

01:03:33.560 conflict or anyone else. If we can do it alone, we should do it alone. If we can't, we shouldn't.

01:03:37.940 It should be that simple. Sherry Cook Nixon says, now move our military assets out of Arabia and

01:03:46.240 into the uk ireland and finally the beaches of normandy uh yes i mean i've made the joke many a

01:03:52.120 time uh you know arm the moderate english before you arm uh anyone on iran that said i do understand

01:03:58.460 that ultimately right now uh you know frankly the american brand is a little varnished internationally

01:04:03.060 that's not really my first concern my first concern is not how we look to everybody but it

01:04:08.320 may not be aiding anyone in in in the uk by telling them america should help them out i think at this

01:04:14.380 point uh you know the the maga brand is a little toxic over there i think harry made that pretty

01:04:18.960 clear when we were speaking recently that that is just not something that is helpful to them so i

01:04:24.040 do make the joke of course but ultimately uh the uk is going to have to resolve that problem

01:04:27.960 themselves because right now i don't think american assistance is uh something that's

01:04:32.420 a very popular idea even for people on the right in that uh in that country

01:04:36.360 sure coke nixon says white house 25 stuff is a mirror of obama biden woke i mean it's kind of

01:04:44.960 the inverse right yeah that's but that's also why i kind of uh you know when anyone who's getting

01:04:50.280 precious about uh you know the the current state of the white house it's like well i remember when 0.79

01:04:54.760 we had a troon you know pulling uh his fake boobs out on you know the white house lawn and hanging 0.97

01:05:00.560 gay flags in the center of the White House as Biden delivered speeches about how trans children 0.99

01:05:06.800 were the heart of the United States. So spare me the calls for decorum, at least from the left. 0.66

01:05:14.180 Nixon also says, White House 250 event are just culture mirrors of Obama-Biden woke race LGBT

01:05:21.480 programming events, except more of this after each election now. Okay, so yeah, basically the same

01:05:26.880 there thank you very much sir philosophical thirstworm says tucker convinced me that they

01:05:31.940 are threatening trump and his family the lack of butler investigation has only one answer in my

01:05:36.960 mind where do you guys leave um of course i have no inside knowledge uh but i have heard this from

01:05:44.120 people um you know who might be in the know and who are not tucker carlson uh i mean very frankly

01:05:52.020 uh you know bb nanyahu handed donald trump a golden pager after killing a bunch of people

01:05:58.040 with them um i guess you can take that message however you like um i would like to believe that

01:06:04.000 isn't true that that level of influence is not available uh and that level of threat is not

01:06:08.840 available to people in the united states but i honestly don't know and while i hope it is not

01:06:13.680 true i i simply could not put it past the you know kind of nanyahu at this moment but i i of

01:06:20.000 course have no deeper knowledge yeah i have uh whatever the opposite of complete and total faith

01:06:26.760 in the character of bb netanyahu uh and let's be honest uh i i've not finished the interview

01:06:35.860 that you're mentioning thirstworm uh but from what i've seen so far it raises some interesting

01:06:42.440 questions and i think the fact that must like the kind of you know the mount rushmore of uh

01:06:49.200 unexplained prominent shootings. There is a reason for the speculation. If the narrative

01:06:57.040 is as boring as CNN will tell you, show us. But I think when there is this feeling of a cover-up,

01:07:04.220 regardless of what actually happened, it lends credence to speculation. And I found

01:07:09.940 Tucker's guest compelling, but I have nothing more to add. I wasn't there. I don't really

01:07:16.500 know anything about it past that the the fact that the behavior and performance of the secret

01:07:22.280 service was so horrifically inept and the fact that no one paid a cost and that many of the

01:07:28.000 agents assigned trump's detail were still apparently on the detail um if that doesn't 0.67

01:07:35.160 raise questions what does right like either everyone involved is horrifically inept and

01:07:40.580 that's terrifying enough or there's something else going on and when you have this many instances

01:07:46.740 where like basically everyone has to be horrifically inept or in a conspiracy people are going to

01:07:52.060 choose one of those two uh i can't i can't blame them uh maybe it is just everyone being inept but

01:07:57.660 again that should be just as alarming as as any kind of foreign conspiracy uh that said again i

01:08:02.820 have no idea uh and so i i'm not i i tend to go with uh things are as obvious as they seem until

01:08:10.280 I'm presented with something that overwhelmingly drives me the other direction. I don't think I've

01:08:15.000 seen anything that drives me overwhelmingly the other direction, so I'll maintain that position,

01:08:19.320 but I cannot fault people for wondering what is going on here and coming up with conclusions

01:08:25.280 that might not jive with what people want in the mainstream media.

01:08:30.380 Creeper Weirdo says, we've gone from the Democrats are the real racists to the left

01:08:35.180 are the real patriots that's not nothing neocons keep whining yeah i i i would have to agree there

01:08:42.940 uh traco nixon says the left are never patriots neocon bs aside yeah i think that's should be

01:08:52.800 hopefully very obvious to most people uh nixon also says only half kidding about the uk our

01:08:59.060 destiny is with our kin not the middle east or third world oh no yeah to be very clear i care

01:09:03.160 far more deeply about the uk uh than i do about any other country outside the united states uh

01:09:09.520 this is you know so someone asked me is this diaspora politics from you orrin and the answer

01:09:13.480 is yes yes uh which is which is why i don't uh you know want other diasporas here i already know

01:09:20.540 how i feel about england and that's with you know my family having been removed from it for

01:09:25.780 hundreds and hundreds of years so if that's how i feel then imagine someone whose family has only

01:09:30.820 been moved, you know, removed from India or whatever for one generation. Yeah, I totally

01:09:36.520 get this. And so, but that said, like I said, I think if you are interested in actually helping

01:09:42.720 out, you know, the right in the UK right now, you know, kind of connecting it to the United States

01:09:47.820 and Donald Trump might not be your best move. And finally, Phil Org says, have you seen the

01:09:54.760 prime minister of can reaching out to eu to team up and exclude uh america uh no i have not i really

01:10:01.520 have no information on that story so i wish i could speak intelligently about it but that is

01:10:05.880 the first i'm hearing of it that said uh i i you know i care a little about the government of

01:10:11.840 america's hat uh so uh i'll but i'll i guess i'll take a look at it have you heard anything about

01:10:17.240 this jay uh no i mean i guess i could see them doing that but uh you know it's like the the old

01:10:25.000 madman meme i don't think about you at all yeah like i'll believe it when i see it but to be

01:10:30.640 honest uh i would be legitimately shocked if something like that happened to be honest that

01:10:37.120 seems to me political posturing i mean don't get me wrong i i feel for uh kruptos and and other

01:10:43.120 friends in Canada, the Canadian chuds out there and fellow Christians who have to suffer through

01:10:48.580 that, I feel for you. But day to day, I have no clue what's going on with Canada and no one can 0.78

01:10:54.260 make me care. All right, guys, we're going to go ahead and wrap this up. Once again, thank you,

01:10:59.280 Mr. Burton, for coming on. Always fantastic. Glad we were not trapped in an airport together.

01:11:03.980 No offense. And of course, if it is your first time on this channel, you need to go ahead,

01:11:08.480 subscribe on youtube like click the bell notifications all that stuff helps with the

01:11:13.740 algorithm gets the show out to more people lets you see when we're going live if you want to get

01:11:17.860 these broadcasts as podcasts and you subscribe to or mac entire show on your favorite podcast

01:11:22.020 platform if you do leave a rating or review it really helps with the algorithm magic and of

01:11:27.120 course my book the total state is out in its second edition in paperback with an extra chapter

01:11:31.560 if you want to grab that head to amazon now thank you everybody for watching and as always

01:11:35.460 i'll talk to you next time

01:11:38.480 Thank you.

The Auron MacIntyre Show - June 15, 2026

Peace in Iran, but Can Trump Keep It？｜ Guest： J. Burden ｜ 6⧸15⧸26

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript

The Auron MacIntyre Show - June 15, 2026

Peace in Iran, but Can Trump Keep It？ ｜ Guest： J. Burden ｜ 6⧸15⧸26

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript

Peace in Iran, but Can Trump Keep It？｜ Guest： J. Burden ｜ 6⧸15⧸26