The War on Noticing ｜ Guest： Steve Sailer ｜ 6⧸26⧸24
Episode Stats
Length
1 hour and 2 minutes
Words per Minute
150.4312
Summary
Steve Saylor is a very influential journalist, though often infamous in many circles, but he does excellent work, and has just released a new book called Noticing. He s joining us from his incredible studio in NYC.
Transcript
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So, Steve Saylor is a very influential journalist, though often infamous in many circles.
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But he does excellent work, and he's come out with a new book called Noticing.
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He's joining us from his incredible closet studio.
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We're going to be diving into social science, statistics, and everything you're not supposed
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And before we begin, I just want to remind you that, of course, we are coming on to election
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season, which means we're also entering into censorship season.
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ahead and collude with social media companies to censor people like myself and others who
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So, Steve, you're, again, probably one of the more influential journalists over the last
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few decades, but so often you're also untouchable.
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People aren't allowed to notice or reference your noticing in their work.
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What has turned you into somebody who everyone reads but no one wants to admit to reading?
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I mean, I'd probably have to say it's probably poor career management on my part that I just
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haven't really been, you know, focused on a laser beam on how to claw my way to the top
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And I just kind of do whatever I want to do and, and that backfires and I just keep on
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doing the, and saying the things I want to say.
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I, I think if, if anything, it's because I tend to come across as this really reasonable
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guy who knows a lot of basic facts about this America, what the social science says, who
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observes a lot about daily life from a pretty normal point of view.
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And then I put it together in kind of a big picture that tends to scare people, I guess.
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Uh, then that would be horrible, especially that would mean, you know, I've been wrong
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No, that's the worst possible conclusion they can come to.
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And, uh, at the moment I'm, I'm sort of more popular than ever, but I've been doing this
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a long time and I have a lot of ups and downs over the decades.
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That, uh, that kind of multi-decade overnight success there for you all of a sudden.
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I've been a full-time, uh, opinion journalist since 2000.
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So, uh, I've, I've kind of seen it all over the years.
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And often you made some pretty good, uh, predictions made, given some out, some good advice.
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One of the pieces I wanted to focus on was the sailor strategy, uh, kind of the number
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It seems like is when more white voters, they constantly are focused on how can we appeal
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to Hispanic communities, African-American communities, Asian communities, anybody except
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focusing on kind of a core demographic that reliably votes in their favor.
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One of the things that you suggested in one of the essays collected in your book previously
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is that the Republican party could make very small adjustments to win over a large amount
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of the white working class that hadn't really been accounted for previously in their strategy.
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And then Donald Trump did a lot of that in, in 2016, but he still continues to seem to chase
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There's, there are a lot of talk about how we're the, the African-American community is
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on the verge of flipping entirely for Trump, or he just did a speech where he talked about
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stapling passports to, uh, any community college degree.
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So you could go ahead and get more immigration that way.
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Why is it so, uh, the case that even when the strategy works, it seems like something the
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Yeah, I mean, right after the 2000 Bush-Gore election, while the recount was still going
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on, I went through the, the results such as they were at that point and looked at the electoral
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college and went, wow, you know, the Republicans could have run away with this if they had just
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done a little better in the rust belt states of the North Central, especially among whites.
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Um, the, you know, up in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, they're pulling in 49% of the
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You push that up to 58 or 60% in these kind of unionized, uh, states, and you'll sweep the, uh,
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Well, you don't be quite so fanatical about, uh, economic issues.
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You try to, you know, work out some sort of deal with the working class.
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And it's not, it's, it's hardly the most radical idea.
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Now you go forward 16 years to Trump's first run, and that's pretty much what he ends up
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doing and, uh, did, did Donald Trump sit down and read my, my article, be there in 2000 and
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No, I'm it's, it was basically the only strategy he had that showed him a path to victory.
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So anybody would have come up with the same thing, except for the Republican establishment.
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Uh, they looked at the results in 2000 with, uh, uh, Karl Rove is, uh, George W.
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And they immediately took the conclusion that what's absolutely crucial is that Republicans
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win a higher, more of the growing Hispanic vote.
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And that the way to do that was to let in even more Hispanics.
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Now, granted, we'll, we'll lose money on each one, but we'll make up for it on volumes,
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It was never real clear with medically how it was supposed to work, but, uh, and it didn't
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make a lot of sense in the electoral college since the Hispanic population at that point
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was, was heavily concentrated in California, which the Republicans were not ever going to
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And in Texas, which if the Republicans lose, which they might, then it's kind of lights
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out for the Republicans as a, a party that can win the presidency.
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Do the dominant Hispanics in Florida really care about Mexican illegal immigrants?
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Do Mexican Americans who vote really care about Mexican illegal immigrants?
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Um, the, the, the assumption among Republicans kind of tended to be, oh, well, of course they
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Why wouldn't they, uh, Mexicans are clearly super ethnocentric, like African Americans or
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And of course this is the most important issue.
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They want more of their third cousins to pour across the border and drive down their wages.
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And, you know, I don't think the way things have developed since then suggests that Karl
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Uh, what, what Rove knew though, was kind of the internal dynastic plans of the, of the
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Bush family that, uh, they'd had one presidency.
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Now they're having a second, maybe Jeb would be a third president.
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And then there's Jeb's half Mexican son, George P.
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Bush was kind of slated in for the 2030s to be the president of the United States that
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was merging between, uh, Mexico and, uh, norte Americana.
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And, and, and a half, uh, Bush, half Mexican, uh, George P was the obvious natural leader
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for the middle of the 21st century in the way that Rove's Bushes, the world thought.
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Um, so that, that was the dominant thinking all the way up through the 2013 Republican audit,
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as they called it after, um, after Romney's defeat.
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And they decided that the one thing they really had to do was, was just completely cave to the
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Uh, it was just, let's do what the Democrats want.
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They wouldn't stab us in the back by importing more of their own voters.
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Do you think that it also has something to do with maybe the anointed status of having
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Obviously a lot of these guys want the approval of the New York times or something and winning
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a few more guys in the rust belt doesn't really go ahead and get them to any more cocktail
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parties that don't get any nice, uh, articles written about their, their willingness to diversify
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I mean, what I call the establishment in the United States is very much aligned with the
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Besides the Democrats, you have the prestige press, mass media, you have academia, uh, corporations,
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especially when they're, when their eyes, uh, wander away from the bottom line to getting
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You have all the cultural institutions, the sports leagues, the entertainment industry,
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the NGOs, and they're, they're all roughly united.
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I don't think people have spent enough time thinking about the grand strategy of the Democratic
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Party, which has been over roughly the quarter century of the, of this century is to ride the
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Uh, they've, as everybody knows, diversity is increasing partly because of immigration, partly
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because of kind of social disintegration with the sponsorship by the establishment of new
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You know, we've seen transgenderism come from basically nowhere to be this massive force in
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American cultural life, uh, among, you know, teenage, naive, moody teenage girls over the last
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Uh, so the Democrats have positioned themselves as a party of diversity and it, there's a lot
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They've won the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections.
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There's no reason to think that, uh, America will get more unified, uh, you know, that America
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won't stop kind of disintegrating into, uh, diverse groups.
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Uh, the problem for the Democrats, of course, is that what they're trying to do,
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is assemble what I call a coalition of the fringes and which Democrats would probably agree.
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It was like a coalition of the marginalized, the margins of American, uh, society got your,
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your welfare mothers, your, uh, your transgenders, uh, your, uh, entertainment industry executives,
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your immigrants, your Jews, your Muslims, uh, it goes on and on.
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The one thing you can look at and go is, well, how are all these diverse groups that the Democrats
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They don't really seem to like each other very much as we're seeing, like, especially with the,
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with the Muslims and the Jews, you know, brawling in the streets of West Los Angeles lately.
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Uh, this is not a, the thing about having a diverse coalition is it's a divisive divided coalition.
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So the Democrats and all their accessories in the media and academia have come up with like,
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okay, here's the one thing that can unite the coalition of the fringes, the coalition,
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We're just gonna, we're gonna be really resentful of people in America, the more who are more kind
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So the more you're a homeowner, you're married, you're a man, and especially you're white, you're
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the enemy and we're gonna just, uh, we're, we're going to encourage our coalition of the diverse
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to just, uh, resent you at all times and to speak out against you.
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So over the last couple of decades, there's been just an enormous increase in the respectable media
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like the New York times in terms of, uh, racist, anti-white hate.
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Uh, it's just, you can read stuff that's, you know, if it was written about Jews, the anti-defamation league
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would have, you know, a complete fit, but because it's written about whites and when they get specific
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white men, white, uh, straight, straight white men, cisgender, straight white men, they keep
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narrowing it down to allow, uh, groups to carve themselves out and go, oh, we're not the bad
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straight white men. We're the, we're the straight white men who wear dresses or something. So we're good.
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Um, you know, the, the, the anti-defamation league would have a fit if you just replaced
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you know, if you took 10% of the op-eds in the New York times and change white to Jew, uh, you know,
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the ADL would burn down the New York times headquarters, but because they write it about
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whites and there are no white, uh, anti-defamation league, uh, there's nothing like that. Oh, everybody
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goes, oh yeah, white supremacy, white privilege. Gotta do something about that. So.
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Yeah. The, uh, the political scientist Bertrand de Juvenal called this high and low versus middle.
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He said that this was the best way that throughout history to kind of use the ruling class can use
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outsiders to unseat the, the, the middle that would have more of an established ability to avoid being
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dependent on the state and the ruling power. I just wonder over time, how this can hold together.
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Like you said, there's already, you know, so many possible fact, uh, factions inside this coalition.
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It's we're seeing one fault line crack up right now. And ultimately there seems to be a huge problem
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because you know, yeah, maybe this is a consequence of a multi-ethnic democracy. Maybe it's not,
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but when you're aggressively going ahead and exacerbating every one of the, these kind of
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fault lines, you're going to run into this issue where, like you said, we have this trans idea now,
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but the one thing you can't trans is your race, even though race isn't real, but also it's,
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you know, it's immutable. You can't, you can't make any changes to it, even though you can change
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your genitalia at a moment's notice. It's, it's, I understand that logically they don't need to
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hold together. That's not the point, but, but at some point you realize that these guys are going
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to try to escape these boundaries that are kind of trying to hold the coalition together. And at
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that point, the whole thing kind of dissolves, right? Yeah. I mean, during the decade of the
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great awokening, going back to say 2013, um, you know, the one thing that the, uh, democratic led
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establishment could agree on was who, who was at the bottom of the pyramid of
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woke privilege. And it was basically guys like me, um, you know, the, the whiter you are, the straighter,
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the more married, you know, you're, you're definitely the bad guy, but who's at the top of the,
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uh, the totem pole and enormous competition for it for a while. Gays were getting toward the top,
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but then they kind of pushed aside and coming out of nowhere, the, the trans folks, uh, you know,
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women made a big, strong push and me too. But then during George Floyd, they got sent to the bottom.
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Uh, you know, Jews wanted to be back on top, but quickly the Muslims, uh, have been fighting back
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for the last eight months. Um, it's, it's extremely unstable. Uh, now, uh, what can be, what can be done
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to undermine it? You can, one thing is you can just keep pointing out how it works. And when you,
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when you talk about it, it doesn't sound very inspiring or enlightened, it just sounds like
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childish politics of resentment of building a voting machine based on hate. And you know,
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that the Democrats and their friends basically don't have any strategy other than encouraging hatred
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of core Americans. But, uh, core Americans are especially disinclined to call out like, oh,
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what you're saying is, so what you're saying is, well, that's obviously racist. You're just a big
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racist. You're an anti-white racist. So you think that makes it okay. But you know, is racism really okay?
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If you just, if, uh, you're just pointing at somebody who's at the bottom of the pyramid of
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privilege today, I don't think so. Um, but you know, white Republicans, they don't want to call it out.
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They want to call, they don't want to call what's going on racist against them. They want to, they want
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to assign it some sort of grand European intellectual tradition and blame it on Marxism or it's the fault of
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Foucault or some, something like that. And it's not, it's not that intelligent. It's, it's kind of
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what the Democrats are doing right now. So, um, you know, just giving, we're just giving too much
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credit to, to the Democrats. Yeah. I have a lot of this feeling too. You know, you look at the current
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plan and the plan is to leave the borders as open as long as possible to import any and every one you
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can, uh, from just these insane, insanely diverse areas. And the argument we get over and over again,
00:23:01.180
along with kind of the humanitarian aspect is these people are doing jobs that Americans won't do,
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that they're going to go ahead and, you know, take all these manual labels, labor spots, the,
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you know, homekeeping spots, all these things that current, uh, you know, core Americans don't want
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to do. And then we end up at the scenario where we're simultaneously talking about how we're going
00:23:20.380
to automate every one of these jobs out of existence. And so it seems like the entire democratic
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plan and part of the Republican plan, frankly, is just suicidal. You know, that you're basically
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importing a vast population whose jobs you are actively working to eliminate. And your entire
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argument is they have to do these jobs that we're working as fast as we can to make obsolete.
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Yeah. I mean, the, the Republicans tend to be dragged around by the nose, by the chamber of
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commerce looks at, uh, entry level wages and, and always goes, you know, we need to get back to the
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good old days of single digit pay for, for workers. You know, we're, we're paying double digits these
00:24:19.740
days, ever since Trump came in and kind of put, kind of slowed down immigration and then the wages
00:24:26.960
started going up and now we're paying 15 bucks an hour and stuff like that. You know, that's horrible.
00:24:33.740
So the Republicans are constantly, you know, undermining any kind of political strategy that
00:24:42.320
might make any sense for them just out of like, yeah, so we can make a higher, bigger bottom line right now.
00:24:47.720
One of the observations you also make in your book is that the big gap in a lot of ways, isn't just
00:24:55.140
the male female gap when it comes to electoral politics, but it's really the marriage gap and
00:25:00.240
that having a scenario where you have affordable family formation would really increase the chance
00:25:06.920
that a large amount of people convert into Republicans as they get older, just going ahead and having that
00:25:12.620
baby, having that marriage radically shapes the way that people vote, you know, over time. But we see
00:25:18.820
very little effort in that when it comes to Republicans, we'll get some kind of, you know,
00:25:23.640
noise about making something more affordable or, you know, helping people get jobs or something,
00:25:28.900
but there's never any evidence that they're interested in, you know, altering some kind of
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understanding of the economic system to do their best to facilitate the creation of families.
00:25:37.720
Housing is skyrocketing out of control. It's almost impossible. And then, you know, kids are going
00:25:42.780
to school, spending a hundred thousand dollars in loans. Of course, they can't get a house when they
00:25:46.940
come out. Why don't they address this? And is there any real like actual way to go ahead and make this
00:25:52.580
happen for the right? Yeah. I mean, let me give a little of the history of my research in this
00:25:59.420
after it started after the 2000 election and then especially the 2004 election. Everybody wanted to talk
00:26:06.680
about why are there suddenly red states and blue states. And the reality was this pattern had been
00:26:13.440
emerging at least since 1988, but then Ross Perot's two runs in 92 and 96 made it harder to see.
00:26:22.440
But all of a sudden 2000 and then once again in 2004, you see this strong divide on the electoral map.
00:26:31.760
So I started looking at what drives some states to vote Republican for president? What drives other
00:26:39.420
states to vote Democratic? And one thing that really jumped out was family statistics involving
00:26:49.880
what I ultimately came down to was what percentage of white women in their younger prime, say from 18 to 44,
00:26:59.940
are married. You could also look at what their, what white fertility rate is or white legitimate
00:27:08.160
fertility rate, but the marriage one worked best of all. And it just had, you know, extreme correlation
00:27:14.860
with how states voted Republican or Democrat. And so if, if you take like the most Republican state at
00:27:23.760
that point was, was Utah and white women tend to get married fairly young, they tend to, unlike say, Oklahoma,
00:27:33.680
where the state song is all my exes are in Texas, they tend to stay married and they have kids and they
00:27:43.680
listen to the Republicans talk about family values and they go, yeah, that's for me. That's, that's what,
00:27:52.880
what's important to me. I have a family. All right. You look at other states typically where housing is
00:28:00.880
really expensive, uh, where a public school, school districts are, you know, highly bought over to get in
00:28:11.040
the good ones and you don't want to be in the bad ones, uh, places like California. Um, the, uh, whites get
00:28:20.880
married later. They have fewer kids. A lot of them don't have any kids. And so the Republican family values
00:28:29.840
talk, uh, was kind of like, yeah, that's not that relevant to me. I'm single. Uh, I may not never have
00:28:37.920
kids. Uh, what do I care about this stuff? I mean, to give you a thought experiment, consider, uh, two
00:28:46.240
identical twins, say they're girls and they grow up, they go to a state flagship college, like the Ohio
00:28:56.160
state or somewhere. And then they go on the job market looking for white collar jobs and each get
00:29:02.320
hired by a bank. Uh, one gets hired, uh, to work in downtown Dallas, the other one in downtown San
00:29:10.400
Francisco. So what's likely to be life trajectories? I mean, they're identical twins. It's, they're
00:29:18.800
bringing the exact same nature to the issue, but the nurture they get in different states depends a lot,
00:29:27.040
oddly enough on whether the suburbs can expand in 360 degrees around the, the downtown core, like in
00:29:35.760
Dallas, where they just go endlessly out into the plains. And so, uh, suburban housing prices are
00:29:43.120
pretty, pretty reasonable or in San Francisco where it's a, you know, it's this peninsula that juts into
00:29:49.840
the Pacific and surrounded by bay and mountains and so forth. And so the, the affordable home homes
00:29:58.480
tend to be like a 75 mile each way commute from Stockton. It's just miserable. So, you know, in,
00:30:07.760
in the San Francisco Bay area, you kind of have to be a real winner in the, in the job competition to
00:30:16.560
really afford the, the house with a yard and a nice school district and so forth. And so it gets
00:30:23.280
people to move there who really are winners and they do real well for themselves, but kind of average
00:30:28.960
people, not so good. They may end up like never quite being able to afford to get married or to have a
00:30:37.760
kid or to have a second child or something like that. And so the whole family value stuff that the
00:30:45.040
Republicans before Trump, at least, uh, kind of centered around, it's just irrelevant to, to that.
00:30:53.040
So, uh, that's perfectly natural. What can be done? Well, some of its geography, you know,
00:30:58.640
you're never going to be able to, to change San Francisco into Dallas because if you look at a map,
00:31:04.400
there's just all these mountains and deep water everywhere. But I mean, what you can do is you can
00:31:10.640
encourage home building. Um, you can do things that just bake, basically make, try to make life a
00:31:19.440
little easier so people can get married and have children. And, you know, so you kind of grow your own
00:31:26.720
voters that way. The Democrats do it with immigration. They do it through encouraging social decay.
00:31:33.280
Uh, you know, they've got a plan. The Republicans never really had a plan.
00:31:39.040
It sounds like in a lot of ways, population density is the enemy of family formation.
00:31:43.680
And if we're only going to have a society where our population density is going to increase,
00:31:49.200
then we're continuously looking at a losing battle for the GOP, right?
00:31:53.440
Yeah. I mean, you can have dense parts of the population. Uh, I mean, one, one thing you have
00:32:03.280
to do is to have people live densely is you have to have a lot of law and order. Um, you know,
00:32:11.360
you can see it like in the last midterm election, uh, the one part of the country where the Republicans
00:32:18.960
did real well running on the issue of this giant wave of crime that took off like within
00:32:27.680
six days of George Floyd's death in May, 2020 was in the New York city area. I mean, people in the
00:32:36.160
suburbs of New York, they often have to, to go into the big city and they appreciated the, the strong
00:32:45.840
anti-crime push from the nineties onward, like mayor Giuliani, mayor Bloomberg and police chief
00:32:54.000
Braddon. New York city went five straight, uh, mayoral elections with the democratic nominee losing.
00:33:04.320
And that did wonders for the crime rate in New York. And it made life better for everybody who had to
00:33:10.400
deal with it, deal with New York city other than the criminals. Uh, now on the other hand, you know,
00:33:18.000
if you commute to work and you're F-150 and you can kind of avoid, uh, you know, having crime affect
00:33:28.080
you. And other than the sense that, well, there's good places to spend my time and those tend to be
00:33:34.560
more expensive than if the whole place was safe. Uh, so yeah, I'm, I'm in favor of, uh, you know,
00:33:44.480
law and order in general, just cause I don't like crime, you know, I'm against murder. Uh, but it's
00:33:52.240
also good for Republicans. It's like, oh yeah, we can afford to have another kid. We could afford to
00:33:58.080
move here or, you know, uh, that most areas are safe.
00:34:04.320
So speaking of crime and specifically statistics, one of the things that's gotten a lot of guys like
00:34:09.520
you and Charles Murray into trouble is being able to go ahead and read into a large amounts of data
00:34:15.440
and kind of understand the situation that we have going on. A lot of the ruling class's current
00:34:21.680
political formula relies on the idea that their managerial expertise uniquely qualifies
00:34:27.920
them to go ahead and run things, right? Like they have the science on their side. They're the ones
00:34:32.240
that, that monopolize data. They're the ones that understand how society needs to be ordered.
00:34:37.680
And yet it seems like they're constantly running away from the kind of data that you and Murray have
00:34:42.080
addressed. Is this a critical flaw in kind of the, the, the, the way that our current elites hold power
00:34:47.600
because data seems to only be accumulating more and more and they seem to have to run from it
00:34:52.720
faster and faster to justify the policies they're trying to implement. Yeah, exactly. I mean,
00:34:57.280
I was in the marketing research business in the eighties and the nineties and, you know,
00:35:05.440
I've always been a baseball statistics fan. I'm, I'm your basic kind of, uh, I was your basic kind of
00:35:12.240
frequent flyer guy who, uh, read Moneyball, like I call Lewis. Um, I just take the, uh, those kinds,
00:35:22.400
I just apply those kinds of skills to like looking at the political and social issues of our time.
00:35:29.920
Uh, so, but you know, what, what the establishment has managed to do is totally censor, uh,
00:35:41.280
widespread knowledge of what's going on with crime rates and what's going on with car crash rates,
00:35:48.400
which have turned out to become highly correlated during the various black lives matter eras.
00:35:55.760
Uh, so you had, you know, a crime was generally dropping up through about 2014 and then the
00:36:05.920
establishment decided, all right, that's good enough. What we need to do is start letting people
00:36:10.480
out of prison. We need less law and order. It's law and order is the new Jim Crow. It's racist to
00:36:18.640
arrest guys just cause they're packing an illegal handgun and they have three outstanding warrants
00:36:26.400
and they were driving 85 miles an hour down the street. That's racist. We should, you know,
00:36:32.720
the cops should pull back retreat to the donut shop. So they tried that with Ferguson where black lives
00:36:41.120
matter emerged as this kind of sacred cause of the American establishment and quickly the black
00:36:49.520
death by homicide rate started going up in exactly the places where BLM triumphed in the St. Louis area
00:36:56.880
and Baltimore and Chicago. What people didn't notice at the time, I just saw it a couple times and then
00:37:04.320
I didn't follow up on it after 2016 was that so were traffic fatalities going up in exactly those places
00:37:13.520
where the cops were pulling back and like, okay, you don't want us to pull over black skies because
00:37:21.280
then sometimes they fight back and then we look bad on video. All right, we're going to pull over fewer
00:37:28.640
bad drivers. Oh, and then people notice and go, hey, I can speed. I can drive drunk. It's great.
00:37:35.520
Uh, I can, you know, when I go to a party, I can bring my illegal handgun and I probably won't get pulled
00:37:41.280
over by the cops and patted down and sent off to jail for having a gun just because I'm a convicted felon.
00:37:49.040
And so then people, if they managed to arrive at their party without getting in a car crash
00:37:57.280
and somebody dissed them at the party, well, then they got their guns stuck in their waistband and
00:38:02.000
they can pull it out and kind of ventilate the guy who's insulting them and maybe three or four people
00:38:08.240
standing around in the background. So you just had this huge increase in the mid 2000s,
00:38:15.200
uh, 2010s in the number of mass shootings with four or more wounded or killed. Uh, what I,
00:38:24.000
what occurred to me was if you get you, you, there's two types of mass shootings with four
00:38:31.120
or more victims. There's the ones where there's more killed than wounded. And those are the rarer
00:38:36.880
kind, but they get much more publicity. They're the Columbine type where the, where the shooter has
00:38:41.760
decided ahead of time, like, I'm not coming home. This is it. Uh, maybe, maybe I won't kill myself,
00:38:50.400
but I'm going to prison forever. So I'm going to hang around and finish off all the wounded.
00:38:57.040
Thank, thankfully there's, they're rare, but they're horrific when they happen. Those kinds of shooters,
00:39:03.840
mass shooters tend to be white or Asian, Hispanic, occasionally black, but not much. There's the
00:39:11.280
other kind of mass shooter who's like, I'm going to kill that guy. And if I miss him with three quarters
00:39:17.520
of my bullets and hit a bunch of people standing around eating ribs in the background at the block
00:39:22.480
party, that's okay. That just shows I'm a bad man, but I'm not going to like let myself get arrested.
00:39:29.440
I'm going to go hang out. I'm going to go hang out at my grandma's house for a few days until this
00:39:34.960
whole mass shooting thing blows over. And the New York Times did a big investigation in 2016,
00:39:40.800
looked at every mass shooting in the United States in 2015 and realized, yeah, about close to 75% have
00:39:50.320
black shooters and black victims. It's typically black social events, a funeral, a rap concert,
00:39:57.840
and it tend to happen on Saturday night. It's just, it's an enormous, the black, blacks die by homicide
00:40:06.320
about an order of magnitude more than whites do. Nobody's allowed to know that statistic.
00:40:14.240
If you bring it up, you're supposed to immediately blame it on white supremacy,
00:40:19.120
on FDR's redlining on Emmett Till's murder. You know, you just make up some sort of antiquarian
00:40:27.600
excuse, but you're not supposed to go like, oh, wow, that's 10 times worse. That's really bad.
00:40:35.280
You know, blacks should probably try harder to do something about it so they don't shoot each other
00:40:39.840
so much. All right. So, so the government, so the establishment did a great job ever since George
00:40:50.240
Floyd in suppressing public understanding of what was going on. If you, what I discovered in 2021 was
00:41:01.280
there was a distinct correlation once again, just as during the Ferguson effect, during the Floyd effect,
00:41:08.800
of deaths by homicide going up and so, and also deaths by car crash. Blacks died by homicide in the year
00:41:18.800
2021, the year after George Floyd, 44% more than they died by homicide in 2019, the year before. Blacks died in
00:41:29.680
motor vehicle accidents 39% more in 2021 when Black Lives Matter was riding super high than they had
00:41:40.400
in 2019. That's just historically unprecedented. It's horrible. Why were blacks dying so much more?
00:41:50.000
Well, the media, when they, if they ever bring it up, they go, well, it was obviously the pandemic,
00:41:54.240
not that the pandemic drove up other groups, death rates anywhere near as much. And the pandemic happened
00:42:03.520
all over the world and Canada and Germany and Japan and Mexico didn't see anything like that.
00:42:11.200
But it had to be the pandemic. It couldn't possibly be the American establishment declaring the racial
00:42:18.240
reckoning at the end of May, 2020. And then you instantly see homicide and car crash rates go
00:42:25.920
through the roof for young blacks over the next few days. You can look at it. It's like Chicago in its long
00:42:34.720
storied history of murder at its most lethal, most homicidal day ever on May 31st, 2026 days after
00:42:45.200
George Floyd's death with 18 people getting murdered in Chicago. Why? Because the cops were all downtown
00:42:52.480
trying to stop, uh, the, uh, looting of the magnificent mile. And anyway, the cops were like, you know,
00:43:01.520
everybody hates us and they want to, they want to ruin our lives and send us to prison like this Derek
00:43:07.200
Chauvin guy. So are we going to, are we going to destroy our lives? Just trying to, trying to help
00:43:13.840
people who hate us? Hell no. Uh, you know, let's go get a donut. So we had this gigantic increase
00:43:23.920
in crime, especially black on black crime because of the triumph of Black Lives Matter. Black Lives Matter
00:43:32.080
got vast numbers of incremental blacks murdered and splattered on the pavement in car crashes.
00:43:39.440
And you're not supposed to know that. Why? Uh, I mean, they'll tell you it's, well, it's racist
00:43:46.720
to be well informed, but it's mostly because the establishment just screwed up massively. They
00:43:53.360
believe Black Lives Matter's nonsense and they pushed the racial reckoning. And of course it completely
00:44:02.000
backfired and got over 10,000, probably I'm guessing 15 to 20,000 incremental black lives killed
00:44:13.840
in the, in the years since George Floyd. Good job. Heck of a job BLM as, as George W. Bush would say.
00:44:23.360
Yeah. Anecdotally, I know several police officers who said, we got the call basically from the top
00:44:28.960
saying, if you, you know, you get a call from this neighborhood, you just don't go anymore. We just
00:44:32.560
don't bother. It's off limits. And I know from my own personal experience, when I was teaching high
00:44:37.600
school during this time, I was in a minority, uh, majority school and basically you weren't allowed
00:44:43.680
to have any discipline because anytime you had any form of discipline, that increased the overall number
00:44:48.880
of minority students who were suspended. And the one thing we can't see is that number go up. We don't
00:44:54.000
care about how dangerous the school is becoming. And this inevitably read to led to multiple like
00:44:59.600
prison riot style fights in my school, like just sprawling 20, 30 kids all battling on the bottom
00:45:05.920
floor of the school where everyone's hooting and hollering from the steps. You know, this is the kind
00:45:10.320
of thing that is enabled when you make these concessions to try to manipulate numbers. We're
00:45:15.040
going to drive these numbers down. We don't want the bad data. We don't want people to draw the wrong
00:45:18.800
conclusions, which ended up doing is creating a wildly dangerous environment. And when the inevitable
00:45:23.680
pressure cooker goes off, the only thing left to do is say, well, probably racism, I guess.
00:45:30.320
Yeah. I mean, the, the people who run things, uh, had this logic that they told us about over and
00:45:41.440
over and over again about who are the bad guys in American society, in American history. And they're
00:45:49.680
basically white men. And if we can only reduce the power of white men and tear down their statues and,
00:45:58.880
and humiliate them and, and push them out of the good, important jobs and so forth, then society will
00:46:06.640
become so much better. And then of course, you know, instantly it went the other way. Uh, the murder
00:46:14.320
weight rate went through the roof, the car crash rate went through the roof. Uh, your, you know,
00:46:20.960
your toothbrushes got locked up at CVS and you had to wait around to have somebody unlock the toothbrush
00:46:27.520
case. You know what, uh, you know, we'd actually made some progress toward making our cities, uh, livable
00:46:35.280
people. And the, the, the, the people running things pissed it all away just over, you know,
00:46:43.520
George Floyd. I mean, they'd been looking for something for the longest time, but it's this
00:46:48.480
giant own goal. And, you know, so one of the things I do is I make up a lot of graphs going,
00:46:55.600
Hey, if you look at this, you know, wow. The, the week that George Floyd died, suddenly the black
00:47:04.120
murder rate went through the roof and it stayed high for the next three years. And hopefully it's
00:47:11.000
finally coming down now, but what a disaster, a self-inflicted disaster, um, on, on America,
00:47:20.440
the fabric of American life, but people don't know about it because the media, you know, basically
00:47:27.560
has been conspiring to tell everybody, well, that was obviously the pandemic. Uh, we can't
00:47:33.560
explain why it was the pandemic. Uh, all these tests suggest, no, it was basically George Floyd,
00:47:43.560
racial reckoning, but what we've done now, you know, to disprove that we've just memory, memory
00:47:48.840
hold the whole racial reckoning, George Floyd, BLM thing. We don't talk about it anymore. Uh, which
00:47:55.640
actually seems to be doing some good, um, in terms of the crime rate, the less the establishment talks
00:48:03.560
about how evil the cops are and evil white men are, uh, the less, uh, crime there is, uh, maybe they
00:48:13.240
should draw a lesson from that, but more likely if they make it through the next election, they're just
00:48:19.240
going to go right back to what they were doing under Trump's first term or yeah, if they, or it'll,
00:48:27.000
it'll be like in 2009 to 12, uh, Obama tried to put a lid on his, uh, more liberal, radical,
00:48:39.640
progressive staffers and like, okay, let's keep the, the anti-white hate button down until after the
00:48:47.640
election. And then after the election, it's like, okay, we did it. Uh, we got one more, we got another
00:48:53.640
term, you guys go do what you want. And, uh, so you got the great awokening emerged around 2013,
00:49:01.080
which turned out to be a huge disaster. So, you know, uh, the Democrats and the media are trying to
00:49:09.080
like, let's, let's forget about what we were saying in 2020. We're just, we're not going to mention
00:49:14.280
that never happened. It was all the pandemic. Yeah. It feels like radio, radio Rwanda is not
00:49:19.240
going to get turned down for, for very long. One more question before, uh, I go to the questions
00:49:24.520
from the audience. I wanted to ask you, uh, one thing that Charles Murray and Christopher Lash and
00:49:30.200
others have talked about, they're concerned about is the IQ stratification inside of society, creating
00:49:37.000
this haven't had have not scenario where all of the wealth, all of the opportunity is increasingly,
00:49:43.000
uh, just, uh, uh, focused on those who have certain levels of IQ. It's only achievable by
00:49:49.240
those that can go ahead and do certain, uh, certain complex processes. And we also are creating a
00:49:54.520
scenario where we're kind of skimming that IQ from throughout the country, concentrating it into
00:49:59.960
universities and particular professions and certain cities. And this means that we're going to
00:50:04.760
continually get like a class that's going to qualify for these things. And then everyone else is kind
00:50:10.040
of going to be left behind as we simultaneously start to race towards just going ahead and making
00:50:16.920
as many jobs as possible on that lower end of the bell curve obsolete. Do you see a change on the
00:50:23.800
horizon? Do you see a solution to this problem, a shift in public policy? I know Murray has talked a
00:50:29.720
lot about UBI, but do you think that there's a, a way that the country is going to be able to address
00:50:34.600
this or is this just one of those oncoming trains that we're just not going to get out of the way of
00:50:39.640
until it hits us? Yeah. You talked earlier about a high, low coalition versus the middle, and that
00:50:47.080
wasn't as detrimental when the economic forces and the cultural forces were increasing the size of the
00:50:55.480
middle. In recent times, it's pretty much the middle has been getting hammered, especially the lower
00:51:06.120
middle, the kind of, kind of people who could get a union job at an assembly line in the past and
00:51:12.760
buy a house and get married and have kids and, you know, take a driving vacation to the national parks,
00:51:19.400
that kind of thing. Uh, you know, those, those people look back and go, oh, that was a lot better.
00:51:26.840
Uh, in the, you know, the mid-century part of the period in American history. Um, what,
00:51:35.000
what I don't know about in, uh, so one thing you could do clearly is tone down the immigration
00:51:44.040
level. Uh, don't import a whole lot of people at the bottom and be careful about importing people
00:51:52.680
toward the top. You know, you want, you want the Elon Musk's and Linus Torvalds and a few superstars,
00:52:01.000
but do you need a whole bunch of nondescript coders? You know, Americans can't really learn to code.
00:52:10.440
I don't know. Um, but you know, there is a wild card here, which is artificial intelligence.
00:52:18.200
And, you know, I, I spent decades, you know, hearing about artificial intelligence on the job
00:52:26.360
in the 20th century. I, I spent a lot of time talking to the AI experts at the companies I worked
00:52:32.760
for. And it, you know, honestly, I was always like, yeah, yeah, this stuff will be here. You know,
00:52:40.200
in the 22nd century or something. And then a couple of years ago, boom, it started to really
00:52:46.920
sort of arrive. And I'm kind of clueless as to what the long-term implications are that you can
00:52:55.880
take a whole bunch of white collar jobs and maybe, uh, go, okay, we don't, yeah, we don't really need
00:53:04.200
a college graduate to sit at home and write emails all day. We can, we can make this 90% more efficient
00:53:12.840
by having a robot do it. Uh, what's that going to do? I mean, do we end up in a society where,
00:53:19.240
where basically there's one good job, which is artificial intelligence engineer, and then
00:53:26.360
everything else gets automated. That's, I don't know. There's a lot of people that have opinions
00:53:32.920
and I'm like, eh, I'm, I'm 65. I didn't see it coming. I should have, but I didn't. So don't ask
00:53:41.400
me what's going to happen. Yeah. There's a great question. What, what did journalists do when they
00:53:45.880
can't even be told learn to code? Right. Well, like when that, when even learn to code is no longer a,
00:53:50.200
uh, uh, a good advice for switching. I mean, I, I, I'm, I'm not seeing my particular job
00:53:58.040
be outmoded by artificial intelligence since, since the way I define my job is to come up with things
00:54:06.360
that are true, new, interesting, and funny. And artificial intelligence has problems
00:54:14.520
so far just with the true part. Maybe they'll get around that, but to come up with something new,
00:54:19.800
uh, maybe, but not what we're seeing so far, but I'm not going to like,
00:54:27.880
you know, I'm not, I'm not going to say, oh, well, it's nothing to worry about because,
00:54:32.200
because I'll be okay for, you know, limited number of rest of the rest of years of my life.
00:54:37.640
Um, so they, you know, I don't, I don't really have a clue. I didn't see it coming. It's here.
00:54:47.240
Uh, and it's big. It's so often the case, you just don't know what's going to come to the,
00:54:52.600
down the pipeline next. So you can, all you can really do is try to adjust as things come around.
00:54:58.440
All right. So we've got a few questions from the audience before we switch to that. Steve, uh,
00:55:02.920
where can people get your book and where should they look for your writing? Well, let's see. Um,
00:55:08.680
my book is called noticing it's an anthology of my best stuff, uh, basically from 1994 onward.
00:55:21.080
Uh, you know, a lot of good, a lot of kind of the more important articles I've written. It's kind
00:55:26.680
of organized in a way that you can kind of understand, uh, sailor thought it's, uh, you know,
00:55:33.400
the table of contents does a pretty good job of introducing me and in my concepts. Um, it's, uh,
00:55:41.160
it's available, uh, from, you can order it directly mail order from passage press, just, uh, you know,
00:55:50.040
type in passage press and, uh, paperback is 29 95. Uh, you can get, uh, free shipping within the United
00:55:59.240
States with, uh, the promo codes, uh, uh, Stancil or Wilson. These are a couple of inside jokes about
00:56:08.040
guys that the publisher doesn't like. Um, okay. Well, if you're overseas, uh, shipping is,
00:56:16.040
is more expensive. Uh, you can, uh, do Amazon Kindle instant download, no shipping charge. Uh,
00:56:25.800
you can, you can compare the, uh, shipping costs at Amazon to passage. I mean, if you're domestically,
00:56:31.720
I'd rather you buy it from passage because then me and my publishers of passage get to keep the money.
00:56:39.400
Uh, and we don't have to share it with Jeff Bezos at Amazon, who I'm told already has a lot of
00:56:45.960
money. Uh, but you know, Bezos got where he is by being really good at, at global logistics. So
00:56:54.760
if, if you're in Australia or whatever, uh, you know, might save a lot of money on delivering
00:57:01.480
via Amazon. So just go to Amazon, Steve sailor, noticing sailor is spelled by the way S as in Sam,
00:57:09.160
A I L E as in Edward are, uh, not, not like Popeye the sailor. Yeah. And I, I can go ahead and, uh,
00:57:17.560
endorse it guys. I've got the copy myself. It's really nice, uh, nicely put together. Passage
00:57:22.920
always does a great job with it. Yeah. Yeah. It's they, they like quality physical books. Um,
00:57:29.080
what else, where else can you read me? I've got a new sub stack, uh, Steve sailor,
00:57:35.160
all one word dot net. And you can subscribe, uh, posting their daily lately. Um, and you can follow
00:57:45.560
me on Twitter, uh, or X or whatever Elon Musk calls it these days. Uh, once again, Steve sailor,
00:57:53.720
um, and you'll be able to find me there. I get, I'm up to like 128,000 followers at this point.
00:58:00.760
Um, and you know, got some good running jokes on Twitter. Absolutely. All right, guys. Well,
00:58:07.020
I'm sure most of you are already following Steve, but make sure you go ahead and do that. If you are
00:58:10.780
not, uh, some comments from the, uh, audience here. Uh, well, actually he says no comments or
00:58:17.960
questions, only just, uh, only much gratitude to Steve and Ornn. Well, thank you, Raspi Block.
00:58:22.820
Appreciate that. Uh, Cooper Rito says it's really sad watching normies in the pop culture sphere,
00:58:27.940
try and talk about noticing. It's so clear that they, they don't get it at all. Everything is so
00:58:32.880
politicized. I just want to consume. Yeah. There's definitely a, uh, desire to not look at a lot of
00:58:39.680
these issues, but again, I think that's why it's so important that people have the, yeah, I mean,
00:58:43.620
I mean, for example, uh, one of the, you know, one subject I'm really fascinated by
00:58:51.620
are statistical analyses of sports. And I spent a lot of time thinking about the impact of race
00:58:58.280
on, uh, in, on sports performance, which you can see on TV around the clock. It's, it's not, uh,
00:59:05.920
at all subtle or anything like that. Uh, we'll see it at the Olympics, uh, coming up and, you know,
00:59:11.780
in the hundred meter dash, uh, the men's final of the hundred meter dash since the 1984 Los Angeles
00:59:20.060
Olympics, uh, 79 of the 80 finalists have been, uh, men with at least one sub-Saharan African
00:59:28.680
parent, uh, one Chinese guy made it last time. Uh, now what does that tell us? Well,
00:59:37.600
tells us, yeah, there does appear to be what I call human biodiversity and has some impact on the
00:59:44.820
world. Uh, people of different racial ancestries are sometimes better at one thing than at another
00:59:52.760
thing. And I look at the sports world and go, yeah, okay. That's, that's obvious. And you know
00:59:58.360
what? We can live with that. Uh, a problem that normies have is that they sort of assume that if they
01:00:05.960
notice it, mention it, then all of a sudden people can't live with it anymore. And so we just shouldn't
01:00:13.620
ever think about it, but no, I mean, my, my view is, yeah, you should think about sports. It's kind
01:00:19.960
of a level playing field. It gives you a lot of really good analogies and insights and how other
01:00:25.620
things work. And guess what? Sports work pretty well with people being relatively straightforward
01:00:32.940
about how they think. So, you know, learn from sports.
01:00:39.420
We've got, uh, Torin McCabe here says, sailor says that the best thing to do is to point out
01:00:44.700
their anti-whiteness noticing. It may be the best thing, but is it the only thing necessary? Or do we
01:00:54.680
I mean, Chris Rufo has been extraordinarily effective over the last few years since 2020.
01:01:01.960
The guy's just really good at, at picking projects and making them happen. Uh, so I would say pay a lot
01:01:11.860
of attention to Mr. Rufo. He's good at it. Um, you know, I'm, I was a marketing researcher,
01:01:18.940
not a marketer. When I tried to, to do a few marketing things, it always like completely failed
01:01:25.960
because I just wasn't right on the, on the wavelength of consumers. Uh, you know, Chris
01:01:31.840
has been brilliant about it. So I'd say pay a lot of attention to him.
01:01:37.360
Yeah. Certainly one of the most effective actors when it comes to right-wing politics in a very long
01:01:41.440
time. And then, uh, Robert Weinsfield here says, uh, what would you recommend to make this better?
01:01:47.260
Sorry, that's kind of unconnected to a particular topic. So don't know how to answer that, but thank
01:01:52.440
you very much for supporting the show. All right, Steve, well, thank you so much for coming by.
01:01:57.120
It's been fantastic talking to you. And if anybody again is not following Steve, not reading his work,
01:02:03.580
has not picked up the book, you should make sure to go ahead and do that. If it's your first time
01:02:07.640
on this channel, guys, make sure you go ahead and subscribe on YouTube, turn on the bell notifications,
01:02:12.800
everything. So you can catch this when it goes live. And of course, if you'd like to get these
01:02:16.420
broadcasts as podcasts, you can go ahead and subscribe to the Orr McIntyre show on your favorite
01:02:20.980
podcast platform. And if you'd like to pick up my book, you can do so the total state on Amazon as
01:02:26.220
well. Thank you everybody for watching. And as always, we'll talk to you next time.