The Auron MacIntyre Show - March 02, 2026


War in Iran, Terror in Austin ｜ 3⧸2⧸26


Episode Stats

Length

1 hour and 8 minutes

Words per Minute

173.11986

Word Count

11,941

Sentence Count

909

Misogynist Sentences

3

Hate Speech Sentences

60


Summary


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, how's it going? Thanks for joining me this afternoon. I am Oren McIntyre.
00:00:05.920 Before we get started, I just want to remind you that one of the ways we keep the lights
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00:00:39.520 All right, guys, let's go ahead and get started. You might have heard that over the weekend
00:00:44.860 we went to war in the Middle East again. So there's that. In addition to the next war in Iran,
00:00:56.480 we also saw a terrible terrorist attack in Austin, Texas, which seems to be directly related to
00:01:04.500 the strikes in Iran. We'll get into that. And also I made Ted Cruz really angry at me and he
00:01:11.260 yelled at me on Twitter. So I'll explain why in a moment. I guess we'll start with obviously the
00:01:18.180 biggest news. We're at war with Iran, even though we were told that wasn't going to happen.
00:01:25.560 It was over. I think we were all there, right? Like I'm not going crazy. I feel like I might be
00:01:31.980 going crazy as I kind of watch the reaction from people on Twitter, in the media, in the conservative
00:01:38.500 commentary sphere. But I distinctly remember that we bombed Iran not that long ago. And the promise
00:01:47.360 when we were bombing Iran at the time was we have to do this because Israel's already doing it,
00:01:55.200 right? Like Israel's already doing this fighting and we're just going to do this bombing run and
00:02:00.640 it's going to hit these facilities that Israel couldn't possibly hit. And all it's going to cost us
00:02:06.660 a few bombs out of an aircraft that they otherwise wouldn't have access to, wouldn't have the bombs
00:02:13.020 for. And then we're done. Like that's it. It costs us barely anything. We got to fuel up a couple of
00:02:18.540 jets, get them over there, drop a few bombs, get out. No casualties, no long protracted wars,
00:02:27.620 no regime change. We just get the nukes and we get out. Now I won't lie to you. I was skeptical at the
00:02:34.580 time. I've seen this movie before, but you know, it seemed like at the very least we held ourselves
00:02:42.580 to that one mission. And at the time I was told that we had just blown up all of Israel or rather
00:02:47.660 all of Iran's capabilities, right? Like they could not enrich uranium. They were no longer going to be
00:02:54.100 able to build bombs, going to set them back not years, decades, decades, right? Now at the time,
00:03:00.120 even though the run had been successful, my concern, which I expressed was, well, there's no way
00:03:07.800 that you can really perpetually keep Iran away from a bomb without just putting boots on the ground.
00:03:14.440 Regime change really is the only way to stop them from making a bomb. And so even if we, the mission
00:03:22.460 was as successful as we claimed it to be, then we would still be in a scenario where at some point
00:03:30.480 we're going to have to go back and do this again. We're going to be in this kind of perpetual cycle
00:03:35.240 of bombing Iran back to the Stone Age so they can start rebuilding. Because at this point, whether we
00:03:42.080 like it or not, the access to a nuclear weapon is more or less sovereignty. The United States will attack
00:03:50.260 someone like Iran because they can't stop them because they don't have a nuke, but they won't
00:03:55.500 attack a place like North Korea, which is comparatively militarily weak, but has access to
00:04:02.120 a bomb, right? Like it's very clear that geopolitically owning a nuclear weapon is more or less the way
00:04:09.620 that we are going to secure our ability to operate. Now, I don't like that. I certainly do not want Iran
00:04:14.340 to have a bomb. Like I do not, these people are not good people. The, the, the, you know,
00:04:19.680 they're, they're in no way my friend, right? The, even the, even the other countries in the region
00:04:24.860 who aren't Israel really hates Iran. We'll talk about that more in a second. And so it's not like,
00:04:30.120 you know, in any way enthused about this, but I, I at least want us to think before we just kind
00:04:36.220 of throw these foreign policy decisions out about what our long-term goal is. Are we, are we just
00:04:42.580 going to go to war in Iran every few years? Or, you know, is, is there a better plan? Well,
00:04:49.220 I guess the better plan is to just do the regime change. I guess ultimately the Trump administration
00:04:53.820 came to the same conclusion I did and decided actually then we'll just do the regime change.
00:04:59.120 Uh, since, since Orrin's, you know, assessment of how to stop nuclear proliferation with Iran is
00:05:06.380 correct. We'll just go ahead and do it. I hope they didn't take that as like a suggestion, but here we are.
00:05:10.520 And, you know, I want to say a few things at the outset first, however you feel about this strike,
00:05:19.700 the troops are our troops. And once we're in it, I want them safe and home as soon as possible,
00:05:25.580 which means victory as soon as possible. So I am rooting for America. I know there are some people
00:05:31.340 out there going, Oh, well, you know, the troops are fighting for oil or whatever. And they signed up
00:05:36.620 for this and their party evil. No, stupid, stupid, wrong. No, I am pro America. I am pro American
00:05:43.200 soldiers. I am rooting for victory for the United States. Even if I don't think this was a wise move,
00:05:49.560 because at the very least it ends this scenario as quickly as possible. I want people to be safe.
00:05:55.660 I want people to get home. I do not want to spending. We're going to spend treasure over there,
00:06:00.700 obviously, because that's where my tax money goes. It goes to the Middle East, but it'd be nice if at
00:06:07.560 least we didn't spend the maximum amount of blood there. Cause I grew up in the generation where I,
00:06:14.180 you know, I was, I grew up on military bases. I did not serve, but I knew a lot of people who did.
00:06:18.980 I'm friends with lots of people in the military and I grew up in a generation where I, I know a lot of
00:06:28.360 people who lost friends. I lost friends. Uh, I know a lot of people who are permanently scarred from
00:06:35.040 their time in the global war on terror. And look, people who sign up for the military, they know what
00:06:42.100 they're signing up for. I don't want to paint these people as in any way, infantile or victims,
00:06:46.920 you know, but at some point I want what they did to be something that they think is worth that.
00:06:54.040 And when I got over and over from my friends who got deployed from to Afghanistan and Iraq is it
00:06:59.760 wasn't worth it. At the end of the day, we walked away. These regimes that we tried to prop up failed
00:07:04.620 the people we tried to defeat, end up rushing back in. It just wasn't worth what I lost in the sand
00:07:11.700 there, you know, and that that's the worst possible outcome that an honorable person goes
00:07:16.860 out there to fight for their country and returns saying, my brothers died and we, my country just
00:07:24.960 gave up on the things we were supposed to be fighting for. Like that's, that's pretty brutal.
00:07:29.740 And so I thought we kind of had a general consensus because Donald Trump literally campaigned on it his
00:07:36.180 entire time. Well, that, that regime change wars were not wise. He said this so many times, it's not even
00:07:44.060 worth playing the montage of clips. He famously broke out in the Republican primary for mocking
00:07:51.560 George W. Bush's regime change wars to Jeb Bush's face. He insulted Jeb Bush. This was a scandal at the
00:07:59.940 time. The Republican party was furious at, uh, at Donald Trump for attacking the idea of regime change
00:08:07.580 wars that the war in Iraq or the war in Afghanistan, they just don't count. Right. So I thought we kind
00:08:16.880 of all had an understanding of this and even up to the point where, you know, guys like JD Vance and
00:08:24.900 Stephen Miller have like prominent appearances on television and tweets, mocking the idea that we
00:08:31.220 would ever have in a regime change war in Iran. Uh, like Stephen Miller literally accused somebody
00:08:37.060 on Twitter of just completely lying, you know, that this was a fake news conspiracy. The idea that the
00:08:44.200 Trump administration would ever initiate a regime change war in Iran that like he says, no, Joe Biden
00:08:49.920 was the guy who's going to start foreign wars and send your kids to the Middle East. That was what
00:08:56.240 people who are key in the administration were saying like a year ago, but here we are. Right. And,
00:09:03.820 and, and I already see, see people saying, oh, well, it's not a war and there aren't boots on the
00:09:09.160 ground and all these other copes, man, like all these copes, actually Donald Trump has said it's a war
00:09:16.620 and Donald Trump has specifically said it's a regime change war and we have already had Americans
00:09:22.120 killed and they have already said that they're going to put boots on the ground if they need to.
00:09:27.300 So like, like I get it. Like I want my team to win too. And I value loyalty to my team too. I really
00:09:34.720 do. Sometimes you just got to lock it in and get through things, but I'm sorry. Like this is really
00:09:43.220 what we voted on. Like this is it, that we were going to get stuff done in the U S and that we
00:09:50.140 weren't going to spend all our time on foreign policy, that we weren't going to involve ourselves
00:09:53.500 in nation building and regime change and all this stuff. And people who are out there coping and
00:09:59.040 saying, oh, well, that's not what we're doing. Well, then you should probably talk to the president
00:10:02.200 of the United States because he doesn't agree with you. And I'm going to trust what he says about
00:10:07.960 what we're doing before I trust you who I don't know. I don't even know what people are doing at
00:10:12.940 this point. It's embarrassing. Like the number of people out there just absolutely shredding their
00:10:17.700 credibility over this issue is insane. Again, I'm not, I'm not too good to play on the team when we
00:10:24.840 need to get things done. I've told people to sit down and shut up on things I cared about because I
00:10:29.480 knew there was something more important for the Trump administration to get done. We'll talk about
00:10:34.600 that a little more in a second, but at some point you get to the core of the issue. Okay. I wanted
00:10:41.240 Donald Trump to be president for a few key things, immigration and foreign policy.
00:10:50.220 Those were the big things I wanted Donald Trump to change in the way that he had promised that Donald
00:10:56.320 Trump obviously had some military interventions, but he was relatively restrained. And it seemed like
00:11:04.360 that was something he would like to continue again, all graded on a scale. I know there were
00:11:09.680 still military interventions, but comparatively, these are things that Donald Trump is very good
00:11:13.800 on. And I want to be clear. The Trump administration is still the best, the best administration I have
00:11:21.520 seen on immigration period. Not sufficient. We still need way more deportations, but we have net
00:11:27.320 negative immigration. The borders are functionally closed. We are seeing deportations though,
00:11:32.820 nowhere near as much as I want. And Donald Trump has done much better on these issues than anything
00:11:37.220 else. And for that, Donald Trump continues to have my support, but this is the problem.
00:11:45.760 Cause even if I didn't care about the foreign policy misadventures, it affects what we can do
00:11:51.080 domestically. It affects what we can do on things like deportations. And that is my main concern.
00:11:56.700 My main concern is the political ramifications of this. I can't control the military ramifications.
00:12:03.760 No one's listening to me on military policy and that's fine. It's not like I've got direct
00:12:08.220 experience, but what I do know about is how this could impact our politics domestically,
00:12:13.700 what it can do to stop us from achieving the domestic goals that I was hoping to see.
00:12:19.720 And that is what worries me the most. Cause you're going to notice that a lot of people
00:12:25.360 in the conservative commentary sphere who said, shut up, get behind Donald Trump, uh, for the
00:12:32.900 election. Stop talking about abortion. It's bad for us. We don't care what Christians say about
00:12:37.720 abortion. Just get in line and vote. And you know what? I also had that opinion. I said, look,
00:12:44.360 I get you. I care about abortion as an issue too, but Donald Trump has already done more for you in
00:12:50.020 the pro-life arena than anyone else. And it's better for you to be quiet and get this guy elected.
00:12:56.120 Even if he doesn't say exactly what you want him to say, then it is for you to go out there and burn
00:13:01.360 this bridge down. So I was one of these people. However, almost none of those people seem to have
00:13:09.880 any concern over what this war is going to do to the midterms, to Donald Trump's domestic agenda.
00:13:18.640 You're hearing almost not a peep from any of these guys who were so encouraging you to shut up about
00:13:24.780 a key issue like abortion. And I just want consistency. I'm trying to be consistent. I said,
00:13:32.160 yeah, you got to quiet down on the abortion stuff because we need to get Donald Trump back in the
00:13:35.900 white house to be able to do other stuff. And he'll probably do the abortion stuff you want
00:13:39.380 eventually anyway too. But I'm also consistent in saying, guys, we have to care about what foreign
00:13:45.960 policy is going to do to our domestic credibility. We have to care about these elections as much as
00:13:51.160 we cared about the last election. If we're going to expend political capital on something incredibly
00:13:56.560 unpopular, let's do mass deportations. It's going to cost us the same amount of money,
00:14:03.140 right? Like we're spending billions and billions and billions of dollars to go bomb Iran.
00:14:09.380 So why don't we spend that money here getting rid of illegals, deporting people who don't belong
00:14:15.520 here? If we're going to do things that are hard and unpopular anyway, and that are going to lose
00:14:19.580 us political capital, then let's do the deportations. It seems obvious. It seems simple. And yet somehow we
00:14:27.440 won't. Now, right after these attacks in Iran, we had a terrorist attack in Austin, Texas, a Muslim
00:14:42.380 immigrant from, I believe, Senegal, who apparently worshipped the Iranian leader, had a Koran in his
00:14:50.380 car, a Iranian flag in the house, along with a picture of, you know, the leader, and just
00:14:58.960 even was wearing a hoodie, a hoodie that said, property of Allah on it, right? This guy walked in
00:15:08.940 and shot up a bar in Austin, Texas, and killed two people and injured another 14.
00:15:19.000 I mean, we don't have an official announcement on what his motivation is, but you could probably put
00:15:25.000 the pieces together. Now, I want to be clear. Some people will go out there and say, oh, well,
00:15:30.700 the U.S. bombing Iran caused this, and I don't think that's the way you should frame things,
00:15:34.940 because frankly, you know, I don't care if something we do pisses off some evil, psychotic
00:15:41.260 Muslim guy. Like, I don't care about that. I care that that guy is in my country in the first place.
00:15:47.180 But this is why it matters to put your domestic agenda first. Because if we were doing deportations,
00:15:54.960 like even if you're like the world's most rabid neocon, and we should just go around spreading
00:15:59.840 freedom and peace and democracy, stapling constitutions to every Muslim's head we can
00:16:06.060 find, even if you believe that, we should do the deportations first. Because if you don't do the
00:16:14.300 deportations first, then you get these kind of consequences. You get consequences like terrorism,
00:16:22.320 because these people shouldn't be here in the first place. And this guy was a legal immigrant,
00:16:27.600 so he wouldn't have even been deported in the illegal immigrant deportation. But we should
00:16:33.120 be looking at denaturalization of people who are not loyal to the United States. We should stop
00:16:37.680 importing people like this. And if they're here, we should be sending them back whether they're
00:16:42.040 legal or not. And if you solve that problem, then maybe you can go out and do some foreign policy
00:16:49.620 adventurism as a treat. You know what, man? I'll give you that one. You get every illegal out of my
00:16:57.420 country. You get every disloyal foreigner out of my country, even if they're naturalized.
00:17:05.540 Bomb whatever you want, man. I'll give it to you. It's yours. Okay. But if you're not going to
00:17:11.900 prioritize that, you lose my support very quickly. You start making me wonder what we're doing here.
00:17:19.620 Because again, everyone in the leadership of the Trump administration, including Donald Trump,
00:17:26.820 specifically talked about how stupid wars like this are. Now, we've had this creeping advance,
00:17:32.400 and at every point, I've tried to find the way forward for the United States and to find ways to
00:17:37.720 support, because I knew ultimately Donald Trump's still the best chance you have on things like
00:17:44.940 deportations. So first, we bomb Iran. Okay, I don't like it, but fine. At least it's quick. We're in
00:17:51.800 and out. They say we were successful. Okay, right? Fine. Then we go into Venezuela. Well, okay, I don't
00:17:58.580 like that. We're obviously getting rid of the head of state, but the operation's impressive. It's well
00:18:03.960 planned. It's perfectly executed. We don't seem to hang around. We don't seem to be interested in actually
00:18:09.940 like changing the regime as much as we just take out the head and the next guy's like, okay, I guess
00:18:15.600 I should probably work with you. Like, we're not going in and building the nation or rooting out
00:18:19.460 a network. We just kind of topple one guy and get out of there. Again, I don't like it, but at least
00:18:24.460 it's in our hemisphere, Monroe Doctrine. Okay, guys, I'll, I'll, I'll try to give you that.
00:18:31.320 But now we're just fully in the Middle East, nothing to do, nothing to do with the Monroe
00:18:38.200 Doctrine. And we're not just striking the bad guy. We already killed the Supreme Leader. We don't,
00:18:45.020 we don't have to keep going, right? But we're not like we've, we've already bombed and you know,
00:18:51.340 the administration's bragging. Like we, we killed like 50 of their top guys right away in the
00:18:56.300 leadership, basically decapitated the country's entire leadership. Fantastic. Let's go home.
00:19:01.940 But we're not. In fact, we're being told now that it could take four or five weeks. We projected
00:19:08.160 four or five weeks, maybe longer. We'll, we'll stay as long as we need to. And, uh, you know,
00:19:13.520 we were told we'll be boots on the ground. And now they're saying, well, if we need to put boots
00:19:17.260 on the ground, we'll put boots on the ground because our objective is regime change and you
00:19:22.940 can't do regime change with, just with bombs. I've been talking about this for a long time.
00:19:27.920 I've been quoting Bacchiavelli on this. Okay. Everybody thinks that the new technology was
00:19:33.440 back in his day. It was artillery, you know, then it's, it's nukes and drones and whatever.
00:19:41.080 Always eventually have to deploy troops. If you want to do stuff like that, you eventually
00:19:46.220 got to put troops on the ground. That's just the way it is. Okay. Denying this, you know,
00:19:52.140 lying to yourself about this, thinking that you can fundamentally change the dynamics.
00:19:57.500 It doesn't work. It doesn't work. And we've seen it over and over again.
00:20:02.200 So this is going to happen now. Look, I get it. Like, ultimately you can't go out there and just
00:20:07.140 tell your enemy how long you're going to be involved because they'll just wait you out until
00:20:12.360 then you can't announce, well, we're leaving on, you know, next Tuesday. So whatever we get done,
00:20:18.820 we get done. And then, you know, we'll leave it there. Like I get it. That's part of the military
00:20:22.120 operation. But this is also why you don't involve yourself in this stuff because unless you are
00:20:31.700 really, truly willing to commit to being there as long as it's necessary and doing whatever is
00:20:37.340 necessary, then you're going to fail. And even if you are committed to doing those things,
00:20:42.400 as we've seen, the United States can hang out for 20 years and still fail. We are not good at this.
00:20:48.500 We have proven that to be the case. And now I'm hearing from a lot of people that, well, you know,
00:20:55.560 the problem with neoconservative foreign policy was just that they weren't doing it right.
00:21:01.220 And Donald Trump's going to be good at it. Oh, okay. Okay. So some of us, well, I should say this.
00:21:13.640 There has been a growing understanding that Pat Buchanan was more or less right on things like
00:21:20.460 immigration, national identity, foreign relationships, foreign wars. We've been hearing
00:21:25.680 that more and more, even from very mainstream people. Pat Buchanan was right. In fact, it's been
00:21:30.500 very popular to even for a lot of mainstream conservative commentators say, yeah, ultimately
00:21:35.560 Pat Buchanan was right. And, you know, they'll walk back and say, you know, I never, I didn't,
00:21:40.280 I may have supported the Iraq war, but that was a mistake. And we won't be that foolish again.
00:21:47.120 And it turns out actually they'll do exactly that again. And I don't know. I like, I'm one of these
00:21:53.340 crazy people who actually believed what I said when I said Pat Buchanan was right. Like I actually meant it.
00:21:59.160 Okay. I had this crazy notion that we were saying things we believed in, but apparently we weren't.
00:22:07.680 And all we really needed was a George W. Bush that would George W. Bush harder.
00:22:12.480 Now, I don't think that Donald Trump wants to be George W. Bush. And I hope that that ultimately is
00:22:21.360 not the route that he'll be on. But the last few foreign intervention, you know, excursions have
00:22:32.420 made me worried that that might be the direction we're going. Now, again, I should say at the outset,
00:22:38.260 I am hoping for a victory. I am hoping the U.S. gets this done as quickly and as without American
00:22:45.100 blood spilled as possible. And I hope they prove me wrong. I hope I'm extremely wrong about the
00:22:54.000 outcome about this. I'll say it right at the outset. I'd rather be very, very wrong and have America win.
00:23:00.180 That is what I am hoping. But the reason that I counsel against this
00:23:05.880 is that I don't think it's going to work. Not because I hate Trump or America or don't support
00:23:12.320 the troops or anything, because I love all those things and support all those things. And I want
00:23:17.340 them to win and succeed. But I'm not going to sit around and say, yeah, man, like, yeah, just keep
00:23:25.120 sawing your arm off. It'll be fine. Like, if you care about something, you care about someone, you
00:23:30.100 tell them to stop, you know, sawing their arm off. You don't say, yeah, whatever, whatever. I've seen
00:23:35.560 other people bleed out after they saw their arm off. But this time, you're going to do it right and
00:23:39.600 we'll be fine. Like, it just does not look good. Now, again, we were told that this airstrike
00:23:47.660 from last year had completely devastated Iran's capability, completely obliterated it. That's
00:23:57.020 what Trump said over and over again. And then we started to get these mixed messages. Well,
00:24:03.740 they they might be developing again. OK, but like we set them back decades. Right. So what's the big
00:24:09.620 deal? Like they're they're going to be way, way too far away from a bomb. Like, we don't have to
00:24:14.280 worry about this. We can get back to the important stuff. We can get back to the domestic stuff.
00:24:20.640 Except then we start hearing, oh, they might be weeks away. It's like Steve Whitcoff literally said
00:24:25.520 that they were like two weeks away from having the bomb again. Now, how can that be? How can you set
00:24:32.020 back a program by decades of completely obliterated and then it be back in like nine months to the place
00:24:41.340 where it's going to have nukes in just a few weeks? And we've heard this forever. Right. This
00:24:46.520 Iran has been two weeks away from having nuclear weapons since I was five. We've heard this from
00:24:53.520 every president, Israeli prime ministers, generals. It's just never been the case. And yet we keep
00:25:02.220 saying it. And now we're saying it in places where it's just ludicrous. It's just ludicrous.
00:25:07.540 Right. And. They can't even seem to get the messaging straight on this one because we have
00:25:16.000 guys like Ted Cruz coming out and saying things like this. Ed is they were building nuclear weapons
00:25:22.680 a year ago and our bombing took that out. They also had an ongoing desire to rebuild them. I don't have
00:25:30.160 present day intelligence on what progress they had made towards rebuilding nuclear weapons since
00:25:37.280 we bombed their facilities. I have no indication that that they were anywhere close to getting
00:25:43.540 nuclear weapons because our bombing was devastating. So Steve Wicca says, we got to go to war with Iran
00:25:51.920 because they're a few weeks away from having a bomb. And then Ted Cruz comes out and says, actually,
00:25:57.320 we have no evidence that they're anywhere close. We really have no intelligence on where they're at
00:26:04.120 since we bombed them. Okay. So I pointed out the problem with this, that we're getting inconsistent
00:26:14.420 stories. And Ted Cruz jumped on Twitter and like in all caps was screaming at me. I think he did in
00:26:20.880 all caps, but he's screaming at me. Oh, well, let me break this down into smaller words. I said,
00:26:26.560 we blew up all their stuff and they can't make nukes now. It's like, yes, that that's what I said.
00:26:34.420 That's what I said. You said, why are you yelling me for, for agreeing with what I said that you said,
00:26:41.420 but he didn't address the fact that that is itself a contradiction.
00:26:46.460 Either they're two weeks away and we know that, and we have to go to war with them or they don't
00:26:53.640 have the capacity. And you're saying not only do they not have capacity, you don't even see
00:26:58.460 intelligence of where they're at, but we, but they're an imminent threat. They're an imminent
00:27:03.500 threat, even though you don't know where they're at. Now, again, I will remind you, Iran is full of
00:27:08.960 really, really bad people. I don't mean every person I ran. I mean them, you know, the garden
00:27:13.520 and everything involved. And so, uh, like I'm, I have no love loss for these people and I'm
00:27:20.060 certainly, you know, these people have sponsored terrorism. Like I'm not going to pretend they are
00:27:23.260 just no threat at all to any American. I don't think that's true. Again, many of the people in
00:27:30.660 the middle East are not that broken up. Ultimately that Iran might get, uh, you know, get punched in
00:27:36.880 the teeth because they don't like Iran either. Like they're not even popular in the middle East.
00:27:41.200 So again, this is not like me saying, Oh, well these, these poor harmless Iranians just want to
00:27:46.660 live in peace and there's nothing wrong with like, no, I obviously I do not want these people to have
00:27:51.120 a bomb, but what we're saying here is they don't have a bomb. They're not even close to having a bomb.
00:27:57.200 We haven't seen anything indicating that they are close to having a bomb. In fact, we don't even have
00:28:01.980 intelligence that really tells us if they've done much getting back to building a bomb anyway.
00:28:07.420 But they are an imminent threat.
00:28:11.340 And this also creates the other problem. I'm being told simultaneously that Iran is a pushover.
00:28:20.200 We'll be done in a few weeks. Stop, stop panicking. You know, trust the plan. Like we'll be in and out
00:28:26.780 of there really quickly. It'll be easy. But also Iran is an imminent threat that had to be dealt with.
00:28:32.960 They're a danger to everyone. They're a direct threat to the United States.
00:28:36.880 One of those things cannot be, or both of those things cannot be true. One of those things has
00:28:42.680 to be false. They cannot be incredibly dangerous and we have to worry about them, you know, just
00:28:49.380 destroying America. But also we can like bomb them over a weekend and call it a day.
00:28:56.040 This is just not going to be, one of those things can't be correct. Either they aren't that big of a
00:29:02.020 threat and we can take them out easily, or they are a huge threat and it's going to cost us something.
00:29:07.480 And this is my concern. The messaging here is sloppy and dangerous because you haven't justified this
00:29:14.380 to the American people. When we went into Iraq the first time, at least we talked about the weapons of
00:29:19.740 mass destruction. At least the, uh, at least all of the evidence was being presented. It turned out to
00:29:25.400 be a lie, but at least they went through the process of lying to us about weapons of mass destruction.
00:29:30.300 This time we're not getting any of that. The United States has not been attacked in a 9-11 style
00:29:36.820 attack. The United States is not, uh, you know, facing a direct threat, uh, from, from mass
00:29:42.660 casualties. Uh, the United States is just not in the same position and it has not been afforded the
00:29:48.600 same explanation as to why we would need to go fight this battle. So that means that these strikes
00:29:54.640 are going to be unpopular. And again, I warned people about this and we're already seeing that even
00:29:59.180 among Republicans, the numbers are very bad. Now you could say, okay, well, polls, uh, they're not
00:30:04.200 accurate. Fair enough. I've argued against the accuracy of poll numbers plenty, but you know,
00:30:10.620 even without the poll numbers, my intuition would simply be, this is the case. The poll numbers do
00:30:14.440 reflect that. If you want to throw them out, that's fine. But if you really think that this is a super
00:30:19.800 popular move, you need to get outside of your Twitter bubble. You need to talk to somebody outside of
00:30:25.540 your incredibly like Fox news, uh, sphere. Cause I don't even think in the Fox news audience,
00:30:31.160 this is probably as popular as they want it to be.
00:30:37.860 So I also have additional problems here, which is the timing. I don't know if you remember this,
00:30:43.660 but last year when we did our bombing, it was made very clear to us that initially the United States
00:30:52.660 did not intend to be involved in the bombing of Iran. And then Israel went ahead and started its
00:30:58.080 strikes anyway. And they said, well, we just need the, you know, American, uh, plane to come in and
00:31:04.460 bomb. We just need the bomber to come in and drop the big bomb and that's it. And we'll be done. And
00:31:08.860 so America, even though they didn't want to be involved kind of got coerced into it, but you still
00:31:14.800 couldn't get, you know, the, the different ceasefires. I remember, uh, Donald Trump getting on social
00:31:20.500 media and begging Bibi Netanyahu, like stop bombing people. Right. Like it becomes clear at some point
00:31:26.600 that we kind of don't have a handle on our greatest ally that our greatest ally can kind of go rogue
00:31:32.200 and do things that we don't really want them to do. Well, now we got reporting out of, I believe is
00:31:40.060 the Washington post again, mainstream media. Maybe they're wrong. I don't know. I haven't seen the
00:31:45.340 administration push back against it, but maybe they will saying that Marco Rubio delivered, uh,
00:31:51.420 Intel to different members. Uh, they come the gang of eight, you know, key, key people from the house
00:31:57.660 and Senate, whatnot, and told them that basically Israel was planning to go strike anyway. And so our
00:32:04.300 options were go strike with them now, or basically be pulled into war when Iran inevitably retaliates
00:32:11.980 back against Israel's strikes, uh, after, you know, or rather, uh, Iran, you know, it retaliates
00:32:18.580 in response to Israel strikes to targets that will be tied to American security. So like one way or
00:32:25.340 another, we're more or less getting bullied into pulling this trigger. I've heard similar stories,
00:32:30.960 uh, you know, of Trump's reluctant, uh, ascent to this plan, um, from different angles. Uh, some of
00:32:39.560 them mainstream, some of them, uh, more behind closed doors. I can't tell you the truth of any
00:32:44.160 of these things. I am saying that there is a disturbing pattern that seems to be emerging here
00:32:49.620 where American foreign policy seems to be dictated more or less on the timeline of an inconsistent ally
00:32:56.980 when they feel like it. Oh, I guess we don't have any other choice. I guess we got to go do this now.
00:33:01.380 I don't know, man. Aren't we like the global hegemon? Why? Like what, why, why would we alter
00:33:08.760 our plans one bit for people? Like, why don't we set the agenda? Why don't we set the stage?
00:33:14.320 Why don't we make these decisions ourselves? It just, it just doesn't seem healthy for us to be,
00:33:21.100 you know, in any way adjusting like really serious policies, decisions based on however another
00:33:26.760 country happens to be feeling that day about launching yet another military strike. I just
00:33:32.420 don't, I don't understand the advantage. And like I said, the fact that you have so little
00:33:37.800 explanation to the American people about what's going on and you've had, this is such a 180 from
00:33:43.600 the rhetoric of the administration previously, it's going to hurt you. Like it's going to, it's going
00:33:49.820 to hurt you politically. Even if you're successful, like right now, if you're successful, like very
00:33:55.840 successful and this is good for the middle East and good for the United States, you might basically
00:34:00.940 get back to neutral. Like you might kind of get back to the place where people are like, all right,
00:34:05.840 I wasn't a big fan of the strike, but it worked out and that's what matters. Right? So I guess,
00:34:10.240 I guess we'll forgive them that that's kind of your best case scenario at this point. Your worst case
00:34:15.700 scenario is we get bogged down in yet another regime change war in the middle East and all of the
00:34:24.700 electoral implications and all of the domestic implications come to fruition. Because when you
00:34:32.060 do stuff like this, it costs you political capital. People will say, oh, well, you know, we can do
00:34:37.000 both. We can do deportations and, you know, regime change wars in Iran. I don't know, man. We haven't
00:34:42.960 done either of those by themselves. So why don't we try doing one of those before we try to do both?
00:34:48.700 And honestly, I don't believe that you just have infinite political capital. Doing stuff like this
00:34:54.920 costs you. Donald Trump was already seeing a dip in his poll numbers because he was doing hard stuff
00:35:00.740 like deporting people. And it was, you know, you were seeing kind of the conflicts with ICE and
00:35:05.800 everything and people were starting to question. Now that's hard, but I'm not going to live and die
00:35:12.000 by the poll numbers when we're doing something that's critical, like deportations. It's got to get
00:35:16.160 done. And once you get it done, it actually makes your getting elected easier because you don't have
00:35:21.700 to worry about all these illegals coming in and voting for Democrats through all of the shifty
00:35:26.900 voting that they do or the attempts for amnesty that are still going on, all that stuff. It's a win
00:35:32.880 that helps you win more in the future. Nothing about the Iran strike helps you win and nothing about
00:35:39.960 the Iran strike helps you win in the future. It only hurts you. It makes it harder to win elections.
00:35:45.400 It makes it harder to win votes. It loses you political capital and political momentum.
00:35:51.340 We're not going to be doing major deportation pushes while we're in an extended conflict in Iran.
00:35:57.120 It's just not going to happen. And so this is going to cost us something.
00:36:03.780 I don't think it's worth it. I don't think it's worth it. I don't think that it benefits us enough
00:36:11.360 to sideline the entire domestic agenda to go doing foreign policy. And I also don't think that
00:36:18.640 the problem with neoconservatism is that it just wasn't efficient enough. Again, when some of us said
00:36:24.900 we believe Pat Buchanan was right, we meant it. Like we meant what we said. And I'm not just going to
00:36:33.220 sit here and pretend like, well, well, I guess we completely change everything. That's fine.
00:36:38.860 Because Trump, no, no, that's not okay. There again, it's not just this has the same problem
00:36:47.500 that the Epstein files had, right? You can say, okay, well, the Epstein files, they're nothing burger.
00:36:53.640 Epstein files, you know, they're just this albatross around Trump's neck. But the problem was that like
00:37:01.060 Kash Patel and Dan Bongino and, you know, all of these people went out and built their careers.
00:37:10.640 People like Pam Bondi built careers around talking about how the Epstein files were dangerous. Even
00:37:16.300 J.D. Vance said, we got to release the Epstein files. So when all of a sudden your administration
00:37:20.020 says, whoa, whoa, whoa, we're not releasing the Epstein files. And if you ask us about the Epstein files,
00:37:25.880 you're probably some agent of the Democratic Party, people start to get worried. They start
00:37:32.340 saying, what's going on here? And when you have Donald Trump and J.D. Vance and Stephen Miller and
00:37:39.840 all these people going out and saying, we will never do a regime change or war in Iran. Regime
00:37:44.500 change wars are stupid. We're done with that kind of politics. Don't be ridiculous. We're not going
00:37:48.960 to put ourselves in that position. That would be insane. And then they go out and do it.
00:37:55.880 People have questions. I think pretty understandable questions about what we're doing here and telling
00:38:02.220 people just shut up. It'll be fine. It's not really a war. OK, well, it might be a war, but it's not a
00:38:10.680 regime change bar. OK, OK, well, maybe it's a regime change war, but we're not going to lose any
00:38:15.600 Americans. OK, well, maybe some Americans have died, but we're not going to put boots on the ground.
00:38:20.680 OK, well, we might have to put boots on the ground, but like, come on, man.
00:38:26.980 What? Am I really supposed to shut down all ability to reason, all pattern recognition,
00:38:33.100 all ability to draw conclusions from previous experience just because? I need more.
00:38:40.580 I need more. I need more. There is there are scenarios where I could be convinced we have
00:38:48.640 to go to war. I am not a isolationist in the sense I'm not like an anti-war libertarian.
00:38:54.100 I do think that wars are a necessary part of statecraft and they will happen.
00:39:00.020 But I need some kind of justification beyond, well, they don't have nukes and they're not
00:39:07.040 going to have nukes for a long time because we already got rid of that. But they're a threat
00:39:11.440 because reasons. So we're going to go there now.
00:39:18.360 Yeah, we said that doing this in the past was stupid and we promised we would never do it.
00:39:22.580 In fact, we attacked people who said we would do it as liars.
00:39:26.980 But we are going to go do that now and you kind of just need to shut up about it.
00:39:30.820 Sorry, I can't do that. I just can't. Now, again, I'm not running around and saying,
00:39:37.760 oh, I'm done. I'm done with Republicans and I'm done with Trump and I'm, you know,
00:39:44.820 cashing in my chips and you should go vote for Kamala Harris or something like, no, of course not.
00:39:49.900 Donald Trump is still the best president we have on immigration. Immigration is still my key issue.
00:39:55.200 I'm not abandoning that for the promise of some ideologically pure candidate down the road.
00:40:03.140 Hopefully we'll get one, but I'm not banking on it now.
00:40:07.440 But this is just a bad idea and I'm not going to shut up and say it's a good idea
00:40:12.460 because I do want Trump to then go do other good things.
00:40:16.860 Yeah, Trump should keep the border closed. He should continue and accelerate deportations.
00:40:21.140 I support him in every bit of that. I stood up behind the Trump administration
00:40:24.980 when people were yelling about me about ICE, attacking me. Oh, how could you, you know,
00:40:29.580 how could you support this Gestapo? No, I was there. I was defending the Trump administration.
00:40:34.420 I was defending ICE. I didn't flinch on that. But I'm sorry. That doesn't mean I'm just some blind
00:40:42.200 ideologue. That doesn't mean I just I'm going to shut up whenever I see a bad decision being made.
00:40:48.060 Now, again, I hope I'm wrong. I hope we wrap this up in a week. It's over. We don't have to worry about it.
00:40:54.980 That would be great. I really sincerely hope that's the best outcome or I know that's the best
00:41:02.480 outcome. So I sincerely hope for it. But I would be a fool and a liar, dishonest. I'd be useless to
00:41:08.640 you or anyone else in the Trump administration if I just shut my mouth and said, yeah, OK, boss,
00:41:15.040 that's not what I do. That's not what people watch me for. That's not why people listen to me.
00:41:20.680 So I'm not going to do that because it's not helping them and it's not helping the Trump
00:41:26.980 administration. It would just be dishonest. And if you think that yelling at me and say,
00:41:33.140 well, just shut up. Just just trust the plan on this one is going to solve that problem for you.
00:41:39.280 No, it's not. I want Trump to win. And I think Trump winning means not involving himself in
00:41:48.660 constantly in foreign policy. Now, there are positive outcomes that could occur here.
00:41:54.740 Trump might be able to leverage this in some way to force Putin to consider ending the Ukrainian war.
00:42:01.180 I think you could just pull your money out of there, but OK. It could cut off supply lines to
00:42:07.000 China, reduce a critical, reduce their hold on critical resources and trade routes.
00:42:15.480 OK, that would be great. Again, I hope that is the actual end of this. I hope that really is what
00:42:21.740 happens. I'm not saying there are no benefits to the United States for doing this, but we have had
00:42:28.480 this conversation before. Iran is not going to become a free and prosperous nation because we
00:42:34.380 hit them with enough bombs. They're just not. They're not going to necessarily greet us as
00:42:40.820 liberators because we killed the Ayatollah. Like, that's just not how it works. We've tried this.
00:42:47.420 It has failed. We understand that. So what are we doing here? We can't get consistent answers.
00:42:53.440 We can't get consistent understandings. Trump just came off a fantastic State of the Union.
00:43:00.020 He seemed to be getting momentum back. And now this. And I'm worried. Now, maybe I shouldn't be.
00:43:08.220 Maybe I'm foolish. But at least I'm honest. I don't know. At least I'm telling you what I think is
00:43:16.280 real. And I'm providing consistent reasoning and arguments as to why it matters. My priority is
00:43:25.700 getting people who shouldn't be in this country out of this country. That's what I care about.
00:43:31.780 To the extent that you make that easier, I'm on your side. To the extent that you make that harder,
00:43:37.260 I'm against you. And this makes it harder. There's just no way in which bombing Iran,
00:43:43.520 going to war with Iran, putting yourself into a regime change war with Iran, considering putting
00:43:49.560 boots on the ground in Iran. There is no way that helps me deport people from the United States.
00:43:57.860 It doesn't. So I don't see the positive here for the things I wanted Donald Trump to achieve,
00:44:06.940 the things that he promised to achieve, the things that he and his staff repeatedly said they were going
00:44:13.280 to achieve. And their engaging behavior they specifically told me was dumb. It's one thing
00:44:18.700 to engage in a foolish action. It's another thing to say this action is foolish and immediately turn
00:44:25.360 around and do the thing. And I have not gotten a non... The only answers I have gotten as to why
00:44:35.400 regime change is suddenly a good idea are just pure propaganda. Now, I'm not against propaganda
00:44:40.440 necessarily. I understand it's utility. I've made those cases. But I have not gotten a single
00:44:48.920 reasonable answer from the actual administration about why this isn't just more of the same,
00:44:56.860 other than we're going to do it right this time. Okay, maybe there is a magical formula for proper
00:45:03.960 neocon regime change wars. And we just didn't do it hard enough previously. But I am skeptical and I
00:45:10.960 think it's reasonable for me to be skeptical. I think pretending it's not reasonable to be skeptical
00:45:15.820 about that is itself entirely dishonest. And I don't have time for it. We've already got dead troops.
00:45:25.020 We've already got planes that have fallen out of the sky. Apparently, friendly fire from Kuwaiti air
00:45:31.540 defense is what we're going with. I don't know for sure at all. But this is not a bloodless war on the
00:45:40.280 American side already. We're already talking about putting troops on the ground. We're already talking
00:45:45.600 about extended commitments. So I'm not feeling great about this. And I think it's okay to say that.
00:45:54.080 I think it's reasonable to say that. I think it is behooves the administration to be crystal clear
00:46:01.280 about objectives, motivations, and justifications. And we have just not seen that.
00:46:09.600 At the same time, I don't know, guys. Again, I don't think you got the political capital to do both,
00:46:16.780 but maybe try to do a major deportation action while you're in the middle of this to show me you can
00:46:22.620 walk and chew gum because you haven't been very great at chewing gum and you just got okay at
00:46:29.220 walking. So I'm a little concerned about the idea that you're going to just crush both.
00:46:35.160 I want people who aren't supposed to be here to go home. I want the kind of people who shoot up a bar
00:46:41.460 in Texas because they love the leader of Iran to go home. I want you to do that before we go bombing
00:46:49.220 places like Iran. I think that's reasonable. Get the deportations done and then we'll talk about
00:46:57.980 the empire. But for the love of God, please focus on the deportations. Again, I'll reemphasize before
00:47:08.200 I go to the questions here. I am rooting for America. I am rooting for our success. I am rooting
00:47:12.800 for the troops. The best outcome at this point is total American victory. So that's what I'm rooting
00:47:18.900 for. And if that makes people say, oh, well, then you were just wrong about this, Oren. Fine. Fine.
00:47:26.300 I'd rather have that happen than anything else. But that doesn't mean that concern is not reasonable.
00:47:33.100 I've even seen people who are running around, worrying about the panicking class now saying,
00:47:41.080 oh, well, I don't know, Mr. President, we probably shouldn't be talking about putting boots on the
00:47:44.500 ground. Like even Eric Prince is out there saying they should not have done this. This is foolish.
00:47:50.320 So, you know, it's not just my silly opinion. Plan trusters, you know, warlords are all saying,
00:48:03.860 I don't know, boss. This one doesn't seem great. Matt Walsh is out there saying, what are we doing?
00:48:10.720 This seems stupid. Mike Benz, plenty of people who are relatively well respected are going out there
00:48:17.380 and saying, I don't think this is the best idea, man. So I don't think it's crazy to voice that
00:48:22.460 opinion. And if you've got a better one, then you should make your case, but you should actually
00:48:27.800 make the case and not run around insulting everybody. Now, look, there are plenty of people
00:48:31.940 out there who are saying dumb things. Oh, well, the United States should lose. Troops should blah,
00:48:37.460 blah, blah. No, that's all stupid. That's evil. First, it's just morally reprehensible. So you
00:48:41.760 shouldn't be saying that anyway or feeling that way. But even if you did just tactically, it's dumb
00:48:46.820 because you're just feeding the very people that you dislike all the ammunition they need because
00:48:51.640 they can just point at that guy and be like, anybody who disagrees with this action, they're
00:48:56.280 unpatriotic just like that guy. So all of that stuff is gross and dumb. And the enemy, your enemy
00:49:02.360 is not your friend, like all that stuff. No, that's stupid. But this is not good. And I don't think
00:49:08.660 it's wise. And I don't think we should be doing it. And I don't think it's going to work. And while I
00:49:15.180 really hope I'm wrong about that, it's not my job to shut up about it. So I'm not going to. I'm
00:49:22.340 going to do my best to give the correct advice as I see it. And I could be wrong. I've been wrong
00:49:28.380 before. But I would not be doing anyone a service by going around and just shilling. Like, yeah,
00:49:34.040 whatever. Just shut up. You'll be fine. Dead Americans, boots on the ground, whatever.
00:49:42.740 Sorry. Like, I just, I'm not going to do that. And if that's what you need from somebody, then
00:49:48.280 I'm sure there's plenty of people out there doing that right now. And you can go watch them. But
00:49:52.920 you're not going to catch it here. So that said, pray for the troops. Pray for those who have already
00:50:00.840 died for their families. Pray for healing for those that are wounded, both in the terror attack
00:50:05.840 and in the war. Pray for a swift in. Pray for safety and peace. Because that's really at the end
00:50:13.420 of the day, all you can do. We're all monitoring the situation. But none of us are making these
00:50:18.600 decisions. They've been taken out of our hands. So the best we can do is pray for a good and safe
00:50:24.920 outcome for our troops. So they get home back quickly. And ultimately, you should want what's
00:50:31.220 best for America. Not to be proven right or wrong. That's what you really should be caring about.
00:50:37.220 All right, guys. Let's go to the questions of the people here real quick.
00:50:43.920 Red Dragon says, born too late to die for Zahn. Born too soon to die for Zahn. I'm assuming
00:50:52.920 they're trying to say Israel in code here somewhere. But yes, the classic joke is born
00:51:00.220 too early to go to war in the Middle East. Born too late to go to war in the Middle East.
00:51:05.320 Born just in time to go to the Middle East. Look, I do not, of course, know at what level
00:51:11.000 Israel entirely informed this decision. But from the reporting we've gotten, it was not a small part.
00:51:17.400 And to the extent that exists, it's bad. And I think everybody can kind of see that. And I just
00:51:23.680 don't understand. Just stop doing this. We don't need Israel. And Israel shouldn't need us.
00:51:30.400 We are sovereign countries. We should not be determining each other's military strikes.
00:51:36.940 We shouldn't be determining them for Israel. Israel shouldn't be determining them for us.
00:51:41.040 I just don't know what else to say about it.
00:51:45.400 No, I'm not grim from Red Riding Hood says, no new wars, eh? Yeah, that's something that we
00:51:50.240 talked about so much. Extremely proud of. Donald Trump listed it as one of his highest accomplishments.
00:51:56.760 I mean, it's all there. I'm not, you don't have to like, you don't have to clip anything out of
00:52:02.420 context. You don't have to isolate anything. It's not one offhand comment. All the evidence is there.
00:52:08.420 I don't know what to say. Elijah Tymon says, Trump's immigration tariff regime
00:52:17.560 regimes are based on executive orders and can be repealed by the same 90% of the
00:52:23.820 lasting non-refundable changes being made. Are John McCain's wishing this is not Pat Buchanan's? Yeah,
00:52:29.220 that's a very good point. Unfortunately, a lot of Trump's domestic wins, because they have not been
00:52:34.280 codified by Congress, will go away if he or J.D. Vance doesn't succeed him. And most of the things
00:52:43.720 that he's doing militarily will stay in place because obviously they're hard and kinetic
00:52:49.480 consequences. So effectively, all the domestic victories that he is securing could evaporate
00:52:56.180 immediately and all the foreign policy actions he's taking will be permanent. That's not good.
00:53:04.160 And that's why I wish we would just focus on, you know, I know it should not be easier to topple the
00:53:11.800 Iranian regime than to pass a bill that says you have to show voter ID when you go to the polls.
00:53:17.460 And if it is easier to topple an Iranian regime than it is to pass the SAVE Act, then I submit to you,
00:53:28.040 dear viewer, that perhaps there are things about your political system that are not working properly
00:53:32.820 and might require very serious action to resolve.
00:53:39.440 Mani Yud says,
00:53:40.720 Again, you know, I mean, obviously, Tolkien is a guy who went through World War I. So he knows
00:53:51.220 far more than I will ever know about something or knew far more about that than I ever will.
00:53:56.560 But I again, I'm not constitutionally against war. I'm not some guy who's like, well, you can just
00:54:01.320 never go to war. I'm not one of these like super anti-war libertarians. But this one just makes no
00:54:06.600 sense. I can't get an answer. And I'm in professional politics, man. Like, I'm sorry, this is not
00:54:13.360 okay. Like somebody. Look, I, you know, I wouldn't be broken up if we figured out the monarchy thing.
00:54:21.180 But you got to do the monarchy thing. You can't just say, well, don't, you know, we don't have to give
00:54:25.660 you answers to why we're going to war. If you're not going to, you know, do the rest of the monarchy
00:54:29.780 thing. You don't just get that benefit. I don't know.
00:54:33.400 I'm not that grim red riding hood says, or, and stop being a panic in. Yeah. Yeah. Lots of that
00:54:40.080 going around. Lots of that going around though. Now that, like I said, the people yelling panic
00:54:44.940 and are themselves starting to ask questions. So that's fun. Uh, SM two 49 says I didn't have Trump
00:54:52.120 starting a religious war in my bingo card this year. Um, let's just say I, I didn't have it on my
00:54:59.320 bingo card, but I certainly did not exclude it from the bingo card. Uh, if you did, then you got
00:55:04.060 to pay closer attention to the way things are operating. Uh, Florida Henry says the constitution
00:55:09.800 is almost meaningless after this. I mean, look, well, we've had our discussions on the constitution
00:55:17.040 and how well it's being followed. There are a lot of people running around saying this war is illegal,
00:55:21.120 whatever. I've said this a million times, libertarians and even conservatives do themselves
00:55:26.960 no favors. When they say this, it's of course true. Uh, but the war powers act has been the way
00:55:32.120 we've been declared war for a long time. We're not even doing really doing that anymore. We just kind
00:55:35.960 of don't bother. Uh, but you know, that that's just been the case that the constitution, the
00:55:42.580 constitutional ability to fight a war has just kind of completely been blown out of the water. And
00:55:48.260 it's been like that for many, many decades. So while it's frustrating and yes, I wish that would
00:55:54.000 change. I'm not going to hold Trump singularly accountable for this. It's been a problem with
00:55:59.260 every president, every administration, Congress has never fixed it. So what are you going to do
00:56:04.260 at this point? Mark Gates says, uh, never Vance America first. I don't know, man, if you got some
00:56:11.940 alternative, let me know. I still think JD Vance is the best option you got, but I'll be honest,
00:56:16.160 this probably didn't help in his chances. I don't, you know, I'm, I think, I think JD Vance is a
00:56:22.300 good option, but this is not going to help credibility. This is not going to help electability.
00:56:27.340 So, and yeah, I don't really know of a better Republican knocking around at the moment. If
00:56:33.080 you do, let me know, I'll take a look, but you know, right now I'm not seeing a lot of better
00:56:37.680 options. Uh, JD Vance does seem to be overall reluctant to this though. Obviously as the vice
00:56:43.700 president, he's going to kind of go along, but I don't know. Uh, you know, maybe, maybe he does
00:56:49.140 fully support it. Maybe he's brilliant. Maybe he knows the 5d chess. I don't, and he's completely
00:56:53.560 got it locked in. And this is going to be amazing victory and catapult him into the white house
00:56:57.380 after Trump's incredible, uh, dominance by all means, you know, let, let, let that be the case,
00:57:04.060 but I'm doubtful. He also says, appreciate you for being honest and sticking to your principles,
00:57:11.340 Zorn. Like I said, man, I can be practical. Okay. I, I was one of these people again, who said,
00:57:17.120 look, you know, abortion abolitionists guys, you need to calm down. We got to get Trump elected.
00:57:22.060 Stow that one for the next election. What bothers me is when I don't see people making logical
00:57:29.000 arguments for their tactics. I could explain to you that while I understood why you were
00:57:35.300 passionate about abortion, I could give you tactical explanations as to why you should focus
00:57:40.480 on getting Trump elected anyway, in that situation. I could reason that to you. Nobody is doing that on
00:57:46.840 this. That's my concern. I want consistent understandings. My understanding is consistent.
00:57:54.580 I need Trump to stay in office and stay relatively politically popular. So deportations can happen.
00:58:00.340 So I'm willing to make the sacrifices necessary for that to be done. That was my argument when I said
00:58:06.500 people should calm down and let Trump slide on the abortion stuff. And yet now nobody who made that
00:58:15.220 argument, except me, seems to care about the fact that Trump is really hurting his chances in the
00:58:21.100 midterms here, really hurting his political capital. And when I see people who said that the first time
00:58:27.600 around suddenly shut up the second time around, that's when I get worried. Joe McDermott says,
00:58:34.160 we're in a situation where if you don't have a future alliance guarantee, there's a risk of
00:58:40.400 another power ally in controlling the regime in a way that is worse than before. Yeah, that's just
00:58:48.240 another way of saying that we gotta have to be a world empire all the time, right? Maybe we do. Maybe
00:58:55.300 that's just true, right? Either we gotta have everyone locked in to alliances and contracts and we need
00:59:01.540 to be influencing their politics and fighting their wars. Because if we don't do it, then China and Russia
00:59:05.580 will do it. Maybe that's just the reality of the great power politics of the day. But if it is,
00:59:09.480 let's just formalize it. I mean, I can honestly hear a good argument for anything if you'll just
00:59:15.580 give me the argument. But we're not doing that. Like Donald Trump is literally using the, we're
00:59:21.580 going to Iran because they need freedom argument. I'm not even joking. That's really his argument.
00:59:28.300 At least with Venezuela is like, yeah, we don't care about their freedom. We need their oil. So we're
00:59:32.480 going to do this. Okay, a little crass, but at least honest, at least you're framing this in a way that
00:59:38.100 I can understand why you're saying this is a benefit to the United States. But that's not
00:59:42.900 what's happening here. It's just like, well, we're going to Iran because freedom.
00:59:50.120 You know, maybe hit them with a little bit of constitution. Maybe they need a little democracy.
00:59:59.020 What are we doing here? I just, I don't get it.
01:00:05.580 Names I can't read on YouTube says, I've said it before and you're rightfully chastised me for it
01:00:11.920 and I'll never blackpill, but I'm so tired. Yeah, again, man, I'm not going to blackpill on this.
01:00:17.040 I don't think that again. I mean, look, there's a real possibility we get locked down here for a
01:00:23.100 long time and this is a disaster. It's entirely possible. Anybody who's telling you that isn't
01:00:27.480 the case is just insane. Like you really should just stop listening to that person immediately.
01:00:31.740 They're not a credible person. Maybe they might say it's still worth it, but if they can't tell
01:00:36.220 you that there's a possibility that this could just go sideways and be a disaster, then they're
01:00:40.320 just not a serious human being. They're not giving you any kind of real interaction. That said,
01:00:45.600 I don't think that's the only outcome. I think there is, there are scenarios where Trump can pull
01:00:50.920 this off or he realizes that maybe he doesn't want to stick around to like get this all the way done
01:00:57.900 because it's just not worth it. And he withdraws in a relatively quick fashion after claiming some
01:01:02.880 level of victory over Iran. Those are reasonable outcomes that don't devastate the United States
01:01:09.700 and still allow him to get back on track. I'm certainly hoping for those again, for those
01:01:14.360 outcomes. So you don't, you know, I'm not going to sit here and black pill over. Oh, well now it's
01:01:18.960 just over. The administration's over and you know, we're going to lose this war a hundred percent and
01:01:23.340 we're going to be stuck here forever. And like, no, those aren't the only outcomes that I'm certainly
01:01:27.080 not hoping for those outcomes, but I'm also not dumb enough to pretend those outcomes don't exist.
01:01:31.360 So I'm not black pilling, but I am just going to be real. This is not a good scenario. I don't
01:01:36.300 think it's a wise move. And I'm only saying that because I really want the people involved
01:01:40.200 to succeed. Otherwise I just wouldn't bother with the advice.
01:01:46.920 Graham says, Oren, thank you for being the most sensible of the ones who side with Trump on this
01:01:51.640 issue. You're generally a breath of fresh air. And I mean that. Well, thank you very much. Like I said,
01:01:55.880 I just want to be honest with people. I don't want to, you know, I don't want to be hyperbolic. I don't
01:02:00.220 want to run around saying I'm done with Trump. I've done with the Republican party. Just give up
01:02:04.580 and vote for Democrats. Just give up and vote for libertarians or whatever. But at the same time,
01:02:11.660 I'm not going to pretend there's no problem here. I'm not going to pretend that this doesn't seem
01:02:15.240 like a mistake. I'm not going to pretend like I can't observe history and facts. If you need
01:02:20.400 somebody to do that, you really, again, there's plenty of people who are doing it right now. So enjoy.
01:02:26.460 Sinestra says, you think Trump would be more focused on domestic affairs since the first
01:02:30.040 nationalization attempt, but it seems to me he thinks it's a, he's gained plot armor and can
01:02:34.980 now primarily focus on foreign affairs. I have a different read. I understand what you're saying,
01:02:39.180 but here's my read on Trump and why he's focusing on foreign policy. He has more sovereignty there.
01:02:44.860 The machine moves in the direction he wants when he wants foreign war. And he also has more power
01:02:50.200 just as the commander in chief. He can't, he can only do so much with executive orders. He runs into the
01:02:56.180 courts. He runs into Congress. He runs into Democrats. He runs into sanctuary cities and states,
01:03:03.300 but he can pretty much do whatever he wants with the United States military. And he's been
01:03:08.800 relatively successful with that in the past. So that's what he's doing. There's a Twitter account,
01:03:15.800 Dan Baltic, who said Trump is doing what he wants with foreign policy because he can't do what he wants
01:03:21.680 at home, which is also what happened with Julius Caesar, right? Why is Julius Caesar conquering Gaul?
01:03:27.520 Well, cause he can't do what he wants at home. Why does he keep staying out in the field? Well,
01:03:31.900 cause if he comes home, there's a problem. It's not an similar scenario that Trump has here. Like he,
01:03:38.200 he is in the scenario where I made the joke many times. He's more sovereign over Venezuela than he is
01:03:43.480 Minnesota. I think that's just the case. I think he's more sovereign over Iran than he is over California.
01:03:51.680 Uh, Joe McDermott says completely agreed on deportations and migration control. First,
01:03:56.480 we attack Iran for threats in the U S but this is so much of a bigger threat. Yeah, that's,
01:04:00.900 that's my exact problem. I understand. Okay. Iran having a bomb is bad, but we solve that problem.
01:04:06.840 So can we focus on this problem that the Iran problem got solved? They're not a threat. Ted Cruz
01:04:12.840 said specifically, they're not close. They haven't seen anything that tells you they're anywhere near
01:04:17.660 building a bomb. So let's go whack that mole in two years or three years after you've solved this
01:04:24.760 problem. But this is the problem here. This is the problem. Now, this is what I elected you to solve.
01:04:34.120 Uh, what, uh, water voids says the situation is never going to improve until we decouple the,
01:04:40.740 uh, from Israel or they have major changes in their leadership. Unfortunately, I tend to agree.
01:04:47.660 And I know that's not going to be popular with a lot of people, but I think it's true.
01:04:52.420 I don't think we can make properly informed foreign policy decisions. And in many cases,
01:04:58.560 domestic policy decisions, when we are so heavily intertwined with a foreign government,
01:05:03.460 I am a George Washington in this. We should not have extended entangling alliances. We are
01:05:10.700 absolutely denying what the founders told us when we're doing this. I just think it's unwise.
01:05:16.840 I would say this about any other country, as much as I'm saying it about Israel, but since Israel
01:05:20.940 seems to be the one that has the most influence and the one people are so obsessed with being our
01:05:25.600 greatest ally, that's the one I got to focus on. If the UK was like, Hey, we're going to go strike
01:05:31.060 stuff and you guys better get on it too, or else you're going to get hit. I'd be angry at the UK,
01:05:36.200 but they're not doing that. Israel is. So they're the one I think we got to focus on. Unfortunately,
01:05:42.020 many says ideology is just a pair of handcuffs to the idealist and the useless idiot, but those who
01:05:48.420 can see the physics of power to see reality as it is, as we want it to be, you are free.
01:05:53.880 I tend to agree with that. He also says, thank you for being one of the few people who are saying,
01:05:59.340 well, thank you. I think there are plenty of other people out there, honestly. And like I said,
01:06:03.800 I'm seeing more and more people who were initially like, look, just shut up. Whatever Trump says are now
01:06:08.260 like, well, okay, now he's saying boots on the ground. Maybe, maybe not so wise, you know,
01:06:14.240 again, I want to see Trump succeed. So I'm not looking for some revolt against Trump.
01:06:20.600 What I am looking for is wisdom, but we're already in it now. So like I said, the two best outcomes
01:06:29.380 right now are immediate smashing success for the United States, total victory for Trump or
01:06:35.460 a moderate victory in Iran that allows Trump to say, okay, we did our job and we can go home.
01:06:41.820 We don't have to make this an extended thing. So I'm hoping for one of those too. It's that simple.
01:06:46.400 I wouldn't have started this, but since we're here, those are the best outcomes. And that's
01:06:49.840 what I'm hoping and praying for. The real Justin says, glad IRGC is being crushed. They funded and
01:06:58.220 trained the insurgents we fought in 08 when I was in Iraq, but I'm biased vendetta feeling. Look,
01:07:03.800 man, totally get it. The, the Iranian revolutionary guard, horrible, terrible government, bad people.
01:07:11.440 They've done bad things. They've sponsored terror. They've trained bad people. You are 100% justified
01:07:16.780 to be happy about bad things happening to bad people who tried to hurt you. You will not hear
01:07:22.040 me say anything else. These people are not our friends. They're not our allies. They're not good.
01:07:26.800 They're bad. Totally on board with that. Like I said, even the middle East, the many other countries
01:07:31.560 in the middle East, you know, Saudi Arabia in the same port that a report from the Washington
01:07:35.860 post saying that Israel, uh, was, you know, kind of going to do these strikes anyway and
01:07:41.580 was being encouraging, uh, you know, it was basically telling, uh, United States leader,
01:07:46.200 get on board or get pulled on board. It also said that Saudi Arabia was one of the key, uh,
01:07:52.200 uh, countries, uh, that was ultimately lobbying for this Iran strike. Right. So like, it's not,
01:07:58.760 it's not that they're super great guys, even bad people in the middle East don't like them.
01:08:03.500 So again, no, we are, we are on the same team. Like no, no, no harm or foul here. Um, I just think
01:08:10.860 ultimately this is a bad extended move for the United States. Uh, but, uh, yeah, no, no, no tears
01:08:17.280 coming from me about the plight of the poor Iranian military. Uh, Kali Oaklander says, how do you think,
01:08:25.400 uh, Eldridge Kobe is feeling right now? I really, really don't know. All right, guys,
01:08:30.680 let's go ahead and wrap this up. Thank you everybody so much for watching. I appreciate
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