The Ben Shapiro Show - Another Week Of Waiting | Ep. 990

00:00:00.000 As local officials exercise their power over minute infractions, Europe examines ways to reopen, debate breaks out in the United States over how to reopen and when, and the New York Times faults President Trump for his coronavirus response while letting Joe Biden off the hook for an allegation of sexual assault.

00:00:15.000 I'm Ben Shapiro.

00:00:15.000 This is The Ben Shapiro Show.

00:00:17.000 The Ben Shapiro Show is sponsored by ExpressVPN.

00:00:25.000 Protect your online privacy today at expressvpn.com.

00:00:28.000 Well, you may have noticed that the economy is a little bit volatile right now.

00:00:31.000 By the economy is a little bit volatile, I mean, nobody knows where the stock market is going.

00:00:34.000 Will it be down 20% next month?

00:00:36.000 Will it be up 15%?

00:00:37.000 Like, no one knows what the hell is going on.

00:00:39.000 And now might be a good time for you to think about diversifying into precious metals.

00:00:42.000 I mean, if you'd listened to me like a year ago, you'd be sitting pretty right now if you diversified A little bit into precious metals.

00:00:48.000 Over 10 million unemployment claims in March last week.

00:00:51.000 We had like another 7 million unemployment claims.

00:00:53.000 Up to 17 million unemployed added to the rolls in just the last month or so.

00:00:58.000 Even with the stock market having a slight recovery, we just don't know the long-term impact of any of this.

00:01:02.000 The prudent thing to do?

00:01:03.000 Diversify at least a little bit into precious metals.

00:01:05.000 Think of the position you'd be in now if you had actually done this before the coronavirus upended global economies.

00:01:11.000 It makes good sense to diversify.

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00:02:02.000 Okay, so here is your coronavirus update.

00:02:06.000 I've been off for a few days thanks to Passover, which frankly was nice because one of the big problems with Twitter is that you're checking every five minutes to see if they have developed a vaccine.

00:02:13.000 And in fact, they have not developed a vaccine, nor have they developed any reliable treatments for coronavirus.

00:02:18.000 And so basically you're just spinning your wheels 24 hours a day, which is why disconnecting is actually kind of a good thing.

00:02:23.000 I hope that people did that A little bit over the beginning of Passover and did that also over Easter.

00:02:28.000 Right now in the United States we've seen approximately 22,000 total deaths.

00:02:32.000 A little over 22,000 total deaths.

00:02:34.000 We are starting to see the slow take place.

00:02:38.000 Actually yesterday was a little bit down according to worldometers which is gathered from the Johns Hopkins information.

00:02:44.000 They suggest that there were about 1,500 little over 1,500 new deaths yesterday.

00:02:48.000 The peak was already hit according to That University of Washington study.

00:02:53.000 It happened a couple of days ago.

00:02:54.000 And so this has got people talking as they should be talking about reopening the economy and what that looks like.

00:02:59.000 The big problem in reopening the economy and what that looks like is this great fear of a second wave.

00:03:04.000 And as I mentioned, I've been talking about this for a long time. 0.98

00:03:06.000 One of the things that's very irritating about the way the news is covered is the reduction to absolute simple stupidity. 0.99

00:03:12.000 It's really irritating. 0.97

00:03:14.000 So, for the last few weeks, we've been treated to flatten the curve, flatten the curve, flatten the curve, and I've been all in on that.

00:03:18.000 Flatten the curve, right?

00:03:19.000 Stay home, make sure that you are not going out, and make sure that if you are going out, you're socially distancing.

00:03:24.000 Masks are probably a good idea, right?

00:03:26.000 Here in Los Angeles, they now have rules that if you go into a grocery store or an enclosed area, you have to be wearing a mask.

00:03:31.000 They shut down pretty much every park in LA yesterday, which frankly seems to me like overkill.

00:03:36.000 You actually want people outside I've been all in on the measures that have been recommended by Dr. Fauci and by Dr. Birx in terms of the social distancing, but I've been saying all along that the big question here is going to be what happens when we are all released from our home confinement, because that's what this is.

00:03:58.000 What's going to happen when we go back out there?

00:04:00.000 Are we going to reinfect each other?

00:04:01.000 What's the plan for us not to reinfect each other?

00:04:03.000 How exactly do you plan for something like that when for the first week of having coronavirus apparently it is asymptomatic or at least not obviously symptomatic to people who are outside?

00:04:12.000 What happens when you have a slight cough that doesn't feel like coronavirus and you're being told that you're supposed to lock down for 14 days in the allergy season?

00:04:20.000 How is any of that supposed to work?

00:04:21.000 How are we supposed to work in economy?

00:04:23.000 Which is going to lose 40% of GDP, according to JP Morgan, just this quarter.

00:04:28.000 How are we supposed to get back into an economy when we don't know whether a second wave is going to break out or even what a second wave looks like at this point?

00:04:35.000 And so the only information that we have so far is looking to foreign countries and trying to see how they are doing it.

00:04:41.000 And the answer is that they are handling it in a variety of ways, and it is not clear which way is going to be the best.

00:04:45.000 So in Italy, actually, they are still extending their business lockdown despite pressure.

00:04:49.000 According to the Agence France-Presse, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte on Friday refused to bow to business pressure and extended the Mediterranean country's economically crippling lockdown until May 3rd.

00:04:59.000 Conte made the announcement after Italy's official COVID-19 toll climbed by another 570 fatalities to 18,849, more than any other country, but with the growth rate now just a fraction of what it was a few weeks ago.

00:05:11.000 So they have successfully begun to flatten the curve.

00:05:14.000 Media reports say business unions from regions responsible 445% of Italy's production and 80% of its coronavirus deaths had written to Conte warning that companies would be unable to pay wages if the shutdown runs on, but Conte said that Italy could not afford another spike in infections and needed to exercise caution in the face of new disease.

00:05:31.000 There's been talk in China of a spike in cases again.

00:05:35.000 Plus, there are new federal projections that show a huge spike in coronavirus infections in the summer in the United States if current lockdown and social distancing measures are lifted after the planned 30 days.

00:05:45.000 According to the UK Daily Mail, new U.S.

00:05:47.000 government figures show that a spike in coronavirus infections would occur in the summer if the current lockdown measures are lifted after 30 days as planned.

00:05:54.000 That would be at the end of April, presumably.

00:05:57.000 About 95% of the United States is currently on some form of lockdown after President Trump issued the guidelines calling for 30 days of measures to slow the spread of the virus.

00:06:05.000 The government projections obtained by the New York Times indicate that lifting the strict social distancing measures now in place will see a second wave surge in infections and deaths in about June and July.

00:06:15.000 If the current shelter-in-place orders are lifted on May 30th, the death toll is estimated to reach 200,000, according to the projections obtained from the Departments of Homeland Security and Health and Human Services.

00:06:25.000 So far, the United States has seen only about 22,000 deaths, which is a lot of deaths in a short period of time.

00:06:31.000 200,000 deaths by the end of the summer would obviously wildly exceed the numbers that are being put forth in, for example, that University of Washington study.

00:06:38.000 which was downgraded to about 60,000 deaths if we all stay home through the end of May.

00:06:41.000 The death toll could reach 300,000 without any restrictions imposed to contain coronavirus, including school closing, shelter-in-place orders, and social distancing.

00:06:49.000 So as I've been saying for a long time, we may have been simply buying time for the medical system to ramp up its ICU beds and its ventilators to the point where at least you will have an ICU bed and a ventilator if you need one, but we can't actually save you.

00:07:03.000 We bought ourselves a few weeks time in order to develop some treatments.

00:07:06.000 We bought a few weeks time toward a vaccine, but there's a lot of talk about the idea that the vaccine is still not going to be developed for 12 to 18 months, which means that what are we going to do?

00:07:14.000 Lockdown for 12 to 18 months?

00:07:15.000 Have these periodic rolling lockdowns for 12 to 18 months?

00:07:18.000 Other countries are trying to struggle with exactly what this looks like.

00:07:22.000 During the White House briefing on Friday, President Trump said he and his advisors have not yet seen the new coronavirus projections.

00:07:27.000 He gave a different projection.

00:07:28.000 He said he thinks the United States will lose fewer than the 100,000 lives initially projected to be lost to coronavirus, suggested the country is nearing its peak infection rate.

00:07:36.000 But you've heard Dr. Fauci say things like, well, maybe we'll reopen the schools in fall.

00:07:41.000 I have no idea how you are going to reopen the schools in fall if this thing is still around and then not reinfect everybody.

00:07:46.000 OK, I have three kids who are under the age of seven.

00:07:49.000 My six-year-old and my soon-to-be four-year-old, if they go back to school, they're going to reinfect each other.

00:07:53.000 That's just the way this is going to work.

00:07:54.000 Kids are germ factories.

00:07:55.000 They'll reinfect each other. 0.72

00:07:56.000 They'll come on over.

00:07:57.000 Grandma and grandpa will have to stay home, presumably for the duration, or grandma and grandpa run a significant likelihood of being infected.

00:08:04.000 Schools will become a wellspring for this sort of stuff, unless you end up with a strategy that maybe we should have attacked in the first place.

00:08:11.000 Which would have been to keep the most old and most vulnerable home and let everybody else go back to work, including social distancing and masks. 0.90

00:08:16.000 Maybe that should have been the program from the very beginning, because that looks, in all likelihood, like what's going to have to happen here over the course of time.

00:08:24.000 Now, there are certain ways that we can alleviate some of those burdens.

00:08:28.000 There's been talk about widespread testing that would allow people to go back to factories and social distancing measures and apps that will allow us to warn people if somebody is infected with coronavirus and lock things down in hotspots.

00:08:40.000 But that doesn't solve the problem for people who are most vulnerable.

00:08:42.000 It doesn't solve the problem for people who are elderly.

00:08:44.000 It doesn't solve the problem for people who have pre-existing conditions.

00:08:47.000 Dr. Fauci warned that if the United States prematurely end social distancing measures, they're right back in the same situation.

00:08:54.000 So that second wave that apparently only I was talking about, or very few people were talking about, is very much real.

00:08:59.000 And this is what drove me nuts throughout the entire conversation.

00:09:02.000 People were saying, okay, we got a lockdown, we got a lockdown, we got a lockdown, and they weren't being clear with the American public what exactly we were attempting to do.

00:09:07.000 If the idea was we were locking down just so we can ramp up our medical resources, then okay, our medical resources are now ramped up.

00:09:13.000 There is no, really, there are no forewarnings that the United States medical system is going to be overrun at this point.

00:09:19.000 In New York, the medical system was not, in fact, overrun.

00:09:21.000 I mean, Governor Cuomo said this last week.

00:09:23.000 They did not run short on ICU beds.

00:09:25.000 They did not run short on ventilators.

00:09:27.000 They were not splitting ventilators.

00:09:29.000 Or at least if they were, it was in rare circumstances where there were holdups in the supply chain.

00:09:33.000 We'll get to more of this in a second, because there are no easy decisions to be made here, and I'm getting kind of sick of people who are pro-shutdown, suggesting the easy decision is just to lock things down indefinitely, and people who are anti-shutdown, suggesting that the easy decision is just to go back to everything as normal.

00:09:46.000 Because I don't think that's right, and I think there are costs and benefits on each side, and I don't think this is easy in any way.

00:09:52.000 And anybody who's telling you it's easy is lying to you.

00:09:54.000 Anybody who's telling you this is an easy calculation is not looking what's happening in other parts of the world.

00:09:58.000 We'll get to more of this in just one second.

00:10:00.000 First, let's talk about the fact that there are things that we each look back on and we think, how could I possibly have gotten it so wrong?

00:10:06.000 Like, for example, over Passover, you just eat tons of matzo without any foresight as to how this is going to affect your digestive system.

00:10:11.000 How did I get it so wrong?

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00:11:08.000 Okay, so what is going on in Europe?

00:11:10.000 Well, a bunch of different sort of measures being taken by different countries.

00:11:14.000 So Italy is still locked down because Italy was hardest hit and that is where they're most afraid that the medical system continues to be very fragile and possibly overrun.

00:11:22.000 Meanwhile, CNN reports people in the Czech Republic can now shop at hardware and bicycle stores, play tennis and go swimming.

00:11:27.000 Austria plans to reopen smaller shops after Easter.

00:11:30.000 Denmark will reopen kindergartens and schools from next week if coronavirus cases remain stable.

00:11:34.000 Children in Norway will return to kindergarten a week later.

00:11:37.000 These nations are the first in the West to start feeling their way gradually out of the limits on daily life imposed by governments to curb the spread of coronavirus.

00:11:44.000 For professional athlete Irina Gelorova from the Czech Republic, the easing of restrictions Thursday meant she could return to training at the Juliska Stadium in Prague for the first time since her country lockdown.

00:11:53.000 It was great, honestly.

00:11:54.000 I was full of excitement.

00:11:54.000 I feel great, she said.

00:11:56.000 Dr. Peter Drobak, a global health expert at Oxford Saïd Business School, told CNN, countries now easing their restrictions are important and hopeful examples for the West, but any loosening of limits will carry risk.

00:12:05.000 WHO Regional Director of Europe Dr. Hans Klug warned this week that the situation in Europe is still very concerning and insisted now is not the time to relax measures.

00:12:16.000 So it is unclear exactly how far the relaxation measures are going to go.

00:12:23.000 According to Drobac, who is one of the commentators on this particular issue, that global health expert at Oxford Saïd Business School, he said the countries preparing to ease restrictions had something in common.

00:12:35.000 They were among the first in Europe to implement lockdowns or severe social distancing measures and had rapidly scaled up coronavirus testing.

00:12:42.000 He said that the plans to relax restrictions look reasonable and they look smart.

00:12:45.000 It's a gradual process.

00:12:46.000 They'll be able to learn and track things in terms of new infections.

00:12:48.000 If they ease up too much and infections start to spike, they can pull back a bit.

00:12:51.000 That's how every country is going to have to do it.

00:12:53.000 So what we're going to have is basically a stop-start model.

00:12:57.000 First, they need to have bent the curve.

00:12:58.000 Second, their health system needs to be able to cope.

00:13:00.000 So far, that looks like the United States.

00:13:03.000 So sick people can be isolated before they infect others.

00:13:08.000 And that's what everybody sort of wishes that they had done from the beginning.

00:13:11.000 Denmark has plans to send kids back to school and kindergarten from April 15th.

00:13:15.000 If coronavirus cases remain stable, the life will still look far from normal.

00:13:18.000 Many restrictions will remain in place.

00:13:20.000 There's still a ban on gatherings of more than 10 people.

00:13:22.000 That's been extended until May 10th.

00:13:24.000 Church services, cinemas, shopping centers are remaining closed.

00:13:27.000 Festivals and large gatherings remain closed all the way until August.

00:13:30.000 Denmark's borders remain shut.

00:13:33.000 That was one of the first countries in Europe to shut its borders.

00:13:35.000 They did that on March 13th.

00:13:37.000 They closed schools, cafes, and shops, as well as banning gatherings of more than 10 people and visits to the hospital.

00:13:42.000 In Czech Republic, they moved swiftly to impose restrictions on travel, ban large events, and close non-essential businesses after declaring a state of emergency on March 12th.

00:13:50.000 Also, they required their 11 million people to cover their faces with masks or scarves when outside the home from March 19th.

00:13:57.000 Since Tuesday, people have been allowed to exercise alone without face masks.

00:14:00.000 Shops such as construction and hardware stores, bicycle stores, bicycle repair centers are allowed to reopen from Thursday.

00:14:05.000 Bikes are big, obviously, in the Czech Republic.

00:14:07.000 Outdoor facilities for individual sports are reopening, but only to some extent.

00:14:11.000 No more than two people can be in the same space.

00:14:12.000 They can't use the showers or the lockers.

00:14:15.000 And essential travel outside the Czech Republic will be allowed from April 14th alone.

00:14:20.000 In Austria, they are also attempting a step-by-step approach.

00:14:24.000 Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz announced this week the country is preparing for a resurrection after Easter, reopening some smaller shops, hardware, and garden stores from April 14th.

00:14:32.000 They are requiring people to wear face masks to supermarkets and on public transportation from May 1st.

00:14:37.000 All shops, shopping centers, and hairdressers will open.

00:14:39.000 Meanwhile, restaurants and hotels will open from mid-May at the earliest in a gradual process.

00:14:44.000 And he said that the The situation is not yet over, citing Singapore, because Singapore has seen a second wave of cases.

00:14:50.000 In Norway, Norway is prioritizing reopening of schools.

00:14:53.000 They're going to scale back their lockdown measures from April 20th.

00:14:56.000 They're going to reopen kindergartens.

00:14:58.000 The government believes the latest stats provide the basis for cautious optimism.

00:15:01.000 Right now, there've only been 92 deaths in Norway.

00:15:04.000 Germany is also attempting some new measures.

00:15:06.000 And then what's really fascinating is that the world's largest scale counter example of all of this is Sweden.

00:15:13.000 So there was a lot of talk early on about Sweden taking a very different model than everybody else.

00:15:18.000 Sweden looking at the way everybody else was locking down and saying, okay, guys, you're locking down.

00:15:23.000 You're going to get a second wave. 0.80

00:15:24.000 What if we just kind of let everybody go about their business and then we told everybody who was old and everybody who had pre-existing conditions to stay home?

00:15:30.000 Sweden took some measures, but not total measures.

00:15:34.000 Like in restaurants, you just weren't supposed to eat at the counter.

00:15:36.000 You were now supposed to eat at socially distanced tables, for example.

00:15:39.000 So how's Sweden performing right now?

00:15:41.000 Well, Sweden has seen a grand total of 919 deaths out of some 11,000 cases in Sweden.

00:15:47.000 There's a lot of talk about Sweden spiking.

00:15:48.000 That was expected.

00:15:49.000 I was always bewildered by the media coverage of Sweden because the suggestion was that they had not expected some sort of spike.

00:15:55.000 No, they sort of did.

00:15:55.000 That was baked into the cake.

00:15:57.000 And the fact is that if you look at population by millions who have died, Sweden is not wildly outlying from other European countries.

00:16:04.000 Sweden has seen 91 deaths per million population.

00:16:07.000 Switzerland has seen 130.

00:16:07.000 Netherlands has seen 165.

00:16:08.000 Belgium has seen 337.

00:16:12.000 Now, of course, the number of deaths per million is largely reflective of the fact that they're very, very small populations.

00:16:20.000 If you look at Germany, Germany is still at 36.

00:16:22.000 The United States is still at 67.

00:16:23.000 But virtually every other country in Europe actually has a worse record in deaths per million than Sweden does.

00:16:30.000 So for all the talk about how Sweden blew it and Sweden looks worse than a lot of other countries, that's just not true.

00:16:35.000 It really is not.

00:16:36.000 Okay, so it'll be interesting to see over the course of the year whether Sweden ends up having done the right thing or whether they have done the wrong thing.

00:16:43.000 So, all of this has ramifications for the United States because how exactly are we going to reopen?

00:16:48.000 What is our strategy going to be?

00:16:50.000 And as I'm going to discuss in just a moment, the answer is going to be data, data, and more data.

00:16:55.000 Okay, while everybody is trying to kick the can down the road, when the data starts to roll in, it's time to make some tough decisions.

00:17:00.000 And I'm sick of hearing that the decisions are not tough, that they're easy, and that anybody who suggests gradual reopening, or even serious reopening, is poo-pooing death, or that anybody who is calling for shutdowns is poo-pooing the economy.

00:17:13.000 I don't think that's true, at least for the people who are in the decision-making positions.

00:17:16.000 I think that's very true in the commentariat.

00:17:18.000 I think in the commentariat, there are a group of people who basically have a stake in suggesting that anyone who says the word economy wants people to die, and a group of people who have a stake in the suggestion that anybody who says the word shutdown wants people to be unemployed.

00:17:29.000 And the answer is we're going to have to draw a middle line here because there will come a point here where the costs do outweigh the benefits.

00:17:35.000 President Trump is not wrong about that.

00:17:36.000 That's what public policymaking is all about.

00:17:38.000 And to pretend that even discussing the public policy is some sort of verboten sin is disgusting, frankly.

00:17:43.000 This is the biggest public policy decision that not only Trump is ever going to have to make, but pretty much anybody's going to ever have to make. 0.99

00:17:49.000 To pretend that there are no sort of stakes on either side is idiocy of the highest order. 0.97

00:17:54.000 We're gonna get to more of this in just one second. 0.97

00:17:56.000 First, let's talk about now being a very, very good time to take care of your mind and body.

00:18:00.000 So, I know, it's so tempting in the middle of this whole thing to sit home and just eat ice cream.

00:18:05.000 I know, it really is.

00:18:07.000 Like, right now, you're like, okay, I can't go to the gym.

00:18:09.000 It's hard to work out outdoors because now I gotta wear a mask.

00:18:12.000 Like, what the hell am I supposed to do?

00:18:14.000 I'm just gonna sit here and I need comfort food and I'm gonna watch old episodes of Friends.

00:18:17.000 Well, now actually is a good time if you can do it.

00:18:20.000 It's a great time to make your mood better.

00:18:22.000 It's a great time to make your body better.

00:18:24.000 It's a great time to actually improve your health.

00:18:26.000 And it's actually really important because if you actually fall down the well of, I'm going to watch old episodes of Friends all day and eat ice cream and do nothing but that.

00:18:33.000 Not only will you be disappointed with yourself on the other end, you're more likely to be depressed in the here and now.

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00:19:35.000 Go check them out right now.

00:19:37.000 Okay, so the reason this is becoming increasingly urgent also is because whenever you have massive government interventions like this, petty tyrants feel the necessity to go overboard.

00:19:48.000 It's really an unfortunate thing, but petty tyrants feel the necessity to go completely crazy.

00:19:53.000 So over in Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer, who was briefly considered a possible VP candidate for Joe Biden, she's basically been shutting down everything in the world. 0.74

00:20:04.000 According to the Detroit News, Bob King, 62, is a little bored these days.

00:20:07.000 That's because his business, B&R Lawn Care in Ferndale, has been shuttered since Governor Gretchen Whitmer's first stay-at-home order last month.

00:20:14.000 King runs his company with his son.

00:20:15.000 He has about 100 clients and four full-time employees, murdering peak summer and winter months.

00:20:19.000 This is the time of year when he's usually busy cleaning up the vestiges of winter and prepping yards for mowing.

00:20:23.000 No such luck this spring.

00:20:25.000 King, like hundreds of other small business owners around Michigan, had been hoping the governor would ease some restrictions on business operations in the latest iteration of her executive order, especially for jobs done largely outdoors that inherently comply with social distancing.

00:20:37.000 He says, if I'm working outside, I'm not working next to somebody, I'm working, like, on one side of the lawn, and this is true. 1.00

00:20:42.000 But Whitmer not only ignored common sense changes to her decree that goes through April 30th, she doubled down on her initial decree. 1.00

00:20:51.000 So, instead of changing and allowing essential workers to include people who are, you know, mowing lawns, for example, instead, she just sort of, she just insisted, essentially, that everybody go home. 0.96

00:21:06.000 To pretend that all non-essential activities are equivalently dangerous is absolute idiocy.

00:21:10.000 She was also raked over the coals, Whitmer was, for part of the order that basically suggested that non-essential areas of stores like Target ought to be shut off. 0.95

00:21:18.000 So instead of you just going to the Target and, hey, look, there's a toy section of Target.

00:21:21.000 I'm going to bring a toy home to my kid.

00:21:23.000 They actually shut off sections of those stores, including ones where you can buy baby seats.

00:21:26.000 And Gretchen Whitmer was like, I'm not barring the sale of baby seats. 0.97

00:21:29.000 No, you're just telling businesses that sell baby seats, as well as groceries, they have to shut off the baby seat section.

00:21:34.000 I'm sorry, this whole thing is ridiculous.

00:21:38.000 When I say the whole thing, I don't mean all shutdowns.

00:21:39.000 I mean the whole attempt by governments to shut down obviously safe areas is insane.

00:21:46.000 Again, I drove around LA yesterday, and number one, it's a ghost town.

00:21:50.000 And number two, I mean, is there a reason why large public areas should not be open?

00:21:56.000 Seriously, like people need to see the sun.

00:21:58.000 If you want to create an impetus for people to get out of the house and just disobey government orders, I can't think of a better way to do it than shutting down every public park in California.

00:22:07.000 It's basically insane.

00:22:08.000 It's basically insane.

00:22:09.000 And if you want to make sure that people are socially distancing at those parks, then fine!

00:22:14.000 Have a cop at the park telling people to socially distance.

00:22:17.000 Sir, first of all, I don't know who in the world is like, I'm gonna get right up on top of other people at the park right now.

00:22:23.000 Is there anybody who wants to do that?

00:22:25.000 Like two Sundays ago, I took my kids out for a picnic.

00:22:28.000 And there were people at the park.

00:22:29.000 And you know what we all did, naturally?

00:22:31.000 We spread out like 40 feet apart from each other.

00:22:34.000 Nobody wants to be on top of each other.

00:22:35.000 I don't know those people.

00:22:36.000 I don't want them coughing on my parents.

00:22:38.000 But it's not just restricted to blue states.

00:22:41.000 Cops in Mississippi shut down a drive-in church service over the weekend held by Reverend James Hamilton of the King James Baptist Church in Greenville, Mississippi.

00:22:50.000 This is total insanity.

00:22:52.000 Greenville Mayor Eric Simmons bans all in-person church services as part of the state's shelter-in-place order to stop the spread of coronavirus.

00:22:58.000 But this is a drive-in service.

00:23:00.000 People were in their own cars.

00:23:02.000 What the hell are you doing?

00:23:04.000 What are you even talking about? 0.96

00:23:05.000 People were parked end-to-end, okay?

00:23:07.000 So that means that they are, even if their windows are open, they are six feet apart.

00:23:10.000 And the cops came and they shut it down, suggesting that this was some sort of danger.

00:23:14.000 Can we use a little bit of seychel here?

00:23:16.000 Seychel is the Yiddish word for common sense.

00:23:17.000 Can you use a little bit of common sense here? 1.00

00:23:19.000 Or are we going to be doomed to the petty tyranny of idiots? 1.00

00:23:22.000 Is that what we're going to do here? 1.00

00:23:24.000 And again, the stronger these measures get, the more people are just going to ignore them.

00:23:27.000 You actually want people to pay attention to the measures? 1.00

00:23:29.000 Don't be stupid about it. 0.99

00:23:31.000 Like when I go to the grocery store, people have been voluntarily putting on the masks before anybody was saying anything. 1.00

00:23:35.000 Because you know what people don't want to do?

00:23:37.000 Die. 0.78

00:23:38.000 It turns out.

00:23:39.000 For the same reason people are watching Trump's Trump's press conference, not because he's so popular, but because they want to have the information so they do not die.

00:23:45.000 People are taking voluntarily the measures necessary so they do not die.

00:23:48.000 Can we rely on the American people at least a little bit when it comes to matters of common sense?

00:23:54.000 In just a second, we'll get to the new war that apparently is breaking out between President Trump and Anthony Fauci. 0.99

00:24:00.000 It is a dumb war. 1.00

00:24:01.000 It is stupid. 1.00

00:24:01.000 There is no purpose to it. 1.00

00:24:03.000 And then we're going to talk a little bit about what preliminary steps would look like, like what exactly needs to happen here and what the data is.

00:24:10.000 Because I think that by the end of the week, I'm optimistic that by the end of the week, we are going to have much more information, much more data to input into our decision-making model.

00:24:18.000 We'll get to that in just one second.

00:24:20.000 First, let's talk about the fact that now would be a great time to own a gun.

00:24:23.000 Like seriously, now's a great time to own a gun.

00:24:24.000 When there's great uncertainty, when there's great volatility, now's a great time to feel like you are safe in your home.

00:24:29.000 Because you just don't know what the hell is going to happen next.

00:24:32.000 I mean, let's be frank about this.

00:24:34.000 The idea of civil unrest is not out of the realm of possibility as this thing continues for long periods of time and as people aren't getting their government checks and stuff.

00:24:41.000 Beyond that, you've got local governments that are shutting down local jails and letting criminals out of jail because they don't want COVID spreading in jail.

00:24:49.000 Once you've got crime rates that are going up, businesses being hit, I mean really, like it's really bad.

00:24:54.000 Now would be a good time for you to exercise those Second Amendment rights.

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00:25:22.000 The people of BCM feel it is their moral responsibility as Americans to provide tools that will not fail when it is not just a paper target.

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00:26:03.000 Okay, so.

00:26:05.000 In the midst of all of this, the dirty little secret has been, and I've been saying this for weeks, the experts don't know that much.

00:26:11.000 They don't.

00:26:11.000 They know what they don't know, but they're not conveying to us what they don't know.

00:26:14.000 And that's a problem, because once they know what they know, then we can actually start expecting some hard facts from them.

00:26:21.000 We've seen the models change.

00:26:22.000 We've seen the numbers come down.

00:26:23.000 But they're not telling us what they don't know and what further inputs they need.

00:26:27.000 We don't know what inputs they are using for case fatality rate.

00:26:29.000 We keep hearing case fatality rate being reported.

00:26:31.000 The one thing we do know is that that case fatality rate is not real.

00:26:34.000 We know that the denominator is wrong because many more people have coronavirus or coronavirus antibodies than have been tested.

00:26:41.000 And we also know that the numerator is probably not correct.

00:26:44.000 That the number of people who are dead from coronavirus is probably too low.

00:26:47.000 So we don't know anything.

00:26:48.000 Okay.

00:26:48.000 We don't know any of the statistics that we need to know.

00:26:50.000 And this makes a huge difference because remember that Imperial College model, this is the one that was used as sort of worst case scenario, lock it all down, suggested that over the course of the next year, 2.2 million Americans could die if we all do nothing.

00:27:01.000 Or if we all just go out and no social distancing, no nothing.

00:27:04.000 Right?

00:27:04.000 And then it said, okay, well, if you socially distance, then it won't be anything close to that.

00:27:08.000 The Imperial College model was used as the basis for the Trump administration shutting things down.

00:27:13.000 But that was based on certain assumptions about the level of infection in the population, as well as the level of death from that infection.

00:27:22.000 They were using statistics from Italy and Wuhan in large part.

00:27:26.000 And so the question becomes, okay, well, what if?

00:27:28.000 What if this thing is more transmissible than the flu, but maybe twice as deadly as the flu, as opposed to 10 times as deadly as the flu?

00:27:35.000 What then?

00:27:36.000 What are we going to do at that point?

00:27:38.000 Is that a situation where we basically say to everybody who is in the least likely populations to be effective, go back to work?

00:27:44.000 Because one thing that we do know is that the death rates for people who are young and healthy is significantly lower than people who are old and have pre-existing conditions.

00:27:50.000 If you're above the age of 80, this thing is really bad.

00:27:52.000 If you have pre-existing conditions, this thing is truly awful.

00:27:55.000 Now, that doesn't mean there aren't outlying cases of young healthy people dying from it.

00:27:58.000 There are.

00:27:59.000 One of the big questions about this thing is whether it is actually COVID that is driving the respiratory syndrome that leads to death or whether it's the immune response to COVID that's actually driving this.

00:28:08.000 There are some scientific theories out there that suggest that it might be an immune response that is too strong and you get a I believe it's called a cytokine storm.

00:28:18.000 You get a cytokine storm, a storm in which basically your body attacks itself effectively because the immune response is so strong to COVID.

00:28:30.000 That might explain why there's such a differential response among different people because there's a biological response agent that is different in every single human being.

00:28:36.000 Your immune system differs from person to person.

00:28:39.000 Okay, with all of that said, We don't know a lot of that information, but that information I think this week is going to be forthcoming.

00:28:45.000 There's some preliminary guesstimates that are sort of fascinating, and I want to get to those.

00:28:49.000 According to Reason Magazine over the weekend, Preliminary results are out from a COVID-19 case cluster study in one of the regions worst hit by Germany's coronavirus epidemic, and they are, in fact, somewhat reassuring. 1.00

00:29:01.000 One often heard statistic is the case fatality rate.

00:29:03.000 This afternoon, that figure stands at 3.5% for COVID in the U.S., but that rate is really inflated, as I say, because it doesn't count asymptomatic cases or undiagnosed people who are recovering at home.

00:29:13.000 Over the last two weeks, German virologists tested nearly 80% of the population of Gangelt for antibodies that indicate whether they had been previously infected by the coronavirus.

00:29:21.000 Around 15% had been infected, allowing them to calculate a COVID-19 infection fatality rate of about 0.37%.

00:29:29.000 The researchers also concluded that people who recover from the infection are immune to reinfection, at least for a little while.

00:29:35.000 For comparison, U.S.

00:29:36.000 infection fatality rates from the 1957-1958 flu epidemic was about 0.27%.

00:29:41.000 For the flu epidemic in 1918, it was about 2.6%.

00:29:45.000 For seasonal flu, the rate typically averages around 0.1%.

00:29:49.000 Basically, the German researchers found that the coronavirus kills about four times as many infected people than seasonal flu viruses do.

00:29:55.000 So as I say, you would have a higher death rate than flu, but not an exponentially higher death rate or an order of magnitude higher death rate as people were originally suggesting.

00:30:05.000 That doesn't mean a lot of people won't die.

00:30:06.000 It also doesn't mean that some young people won't die. 1.00

00:30:09.000 It does mean that we would have to think about different segments of the population very differently.

00:30:15.000 Also, there's a study over the weekend that suggests that perhaps the COVID-19 deaths were actually hitting California in January and February.

00:30:26.000 According to Dr. Jeff Smith, a physician who is the chief executive of the Santa Clara County government, he told county leaders in a recent briefing that there might have been a dramatic viral surge in February in California.

00:30:38.000 He said that maybe COVID-19 was actually in California a lot longer than we first believed, maybe like back in December.

00:30:44.000 He said symptoms are very much like the flu.

00:30:46.000 If you got a mild case of COVID, you didn't really notice.

00:30:48.000 You didn't even go to the doctor.

00:30:49.000 The doctor maybe didn't even do it because they presumed it was the flu.

00:30:53.000 So in January and in February, there was very little community testing.

00:30:55.000 So one of the things we have to find out is how far this thing has gone in California.

00:30:59.000 If it turns out that community infection is too far gone for us to do sort of hotspot testing at this point, that the lockdown will not prevent community reinfection because it's going to be hard to trace everybody and we're not going to get the systems out in place, then perhaps our best hope is that a lot of people out there Actually have this thing so we are closer to herd immunity than originally thought.

00:31:17.000 Now I know herd immunity has become a dirty word except for Sweden where they're actually attempting to push it.

00:31:21.000 In the UK they tried the herd immunity strategy and then they realized they were going to overrun their hospitals.

00:31:25.000 But if our hospitals are not going to be overrun, and if the alternative is 18 months of a near shutdown, then people are going to have to start talking about whether that is plausible or not.

00:31:33.000 Now we're not going to know that based on the data.

00:31:35.000 We're not going to know that until the data is in.

00:31:38.000 There's some studies that are supposed to come out later this week.

00:31:40.000 I personally know scientists who are working on this right now.

00:31:43.000 We're attempting to establish how many people have actually gotten this thing in California, in New York.

00:31:49.000 Once we know the actual case fatality rate, then we as a society are going to have some decisions to make about how we deal with this.

00:31:54.000 Let's say, for example, that the case fatality rate is 0.37% like it is in Germany.

00:31:59.000 Let's say that that's the actual case fatality rate.

00:32:01.000 And let's say that that's an average of all the people who are dying.

00:32:04.000 But let's say that the real case fatality rate for people who are above the age of 80, the case fatality rate is 17% or 18%, which is what it sort of has been so far.

00:32:14.000 Let's say that it is, let's say that basically everybody who gets it when they're 80 is identifying it.

00:32:18.000 There are very few asymptomatic 80 year olds.

00:32:20.000 Let's say that everybody who, let's say it's a 15% case fatality rate among 80 year olds.

00:32:25.000 Let's say it's a 10% case fatality rate among 70 year olds.

00:32:28.000 Let's say that it's a 3% case fatality rate among 60 year olds, and let's say that it's a 0.1% case fatality rate among people under 40.

00:32:37.000 So the same as the flu.

00:32:38.000 At that point, do we say to everybody who's under 40 and healthy, go to work?

00:32:41.000 And everybody else?

00:32:42.000 You know, gauge your own level of risk?

00:32:45.000 That's a serious question, because again, huge industries are being shut down now.

00:32:48.000 We're not just talking about local restaurants.

00:32:50.000 We're talking about the entire airline industry.

00:32:52.000 No one is getting into a canister in the sky with 200 strangers right now.

00:32:56.000 The airline industry is going to be shut for the foreseeable future, and masks are not going to do a damn thing about it.

00:33:01.000 And so, if you want to restart the economy at a certain point, these tough decisions are going to have to be made.

00:33:07.000 Now, none of this is being forwarded by our acclaimed media, who have an interest in sort of the Not the hard questions, but the questions of the political ramifications.

00:33:18.000 You know, how is this going to hurt Trump?

00:33:20.000 And how is Trump handling all this stuff?

00:33:21.000 If your lodestar is still Trump in the middle of all this, if Trump is the first thing that comes to mind in the middle of a pandemic, I think that you're doing being human and being an analyst wrong.

00:33:29.000 That is not the way that you should be thinking about this stuff.

00:33:31.000 And we're going to get to more of this in just one second.

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00:34:50.000 So what would be really wonderful at this point is the straight scoop from our public health professionals.

00:35:00.000 What information do they lack?

00:35:02.000 What information do they need?

00:35:03.000 And what information, when input into their thought-making processes, would lead to what sort of solutions?

00:35:08.000 And we're not getting any of that.

00:35:11.000 Honestly, I think Dr. Fauci is great in a lot of ways.

00:35:13.000 This is one area where I think he has really been bereft.

00:35:16.000 I think the same thing is true, basically, of Dr. Birx.

00:35:18.000 I think that our public health professionals need to be fully honest with us as to what they don't know.

00:35:23.000 Now, I think that they are saying it, right?

00:35:24.000 I think that in their writings, they're saying it.

00:35:26.000 I think that when they speak long form, they're saying it.

00:35:28.000 But I think that they need to be saying, listen, right now, like, be honest with us.

00:35:31.000 Just be honest, okay?

00:35:32.000 Here's the data we're missing.

00:35:34.000 Here's the data we need.

00:35:35.000 We can't make a decision to reopen until we have this data.

00:35:37.000 That's what's happening here.

00:35:38.000 So Dr. Fauci said over the weekend, this has been his constant refrain, that the virus just hides when we reopen.

00:35:38.000 Right?

00:35:43.000 That's not true.

00:35:44.000 We decide when we reopen.

00:35:46.000 Now, we could make a horrible decision.

00:35:46.000 Right?

00:35:46.000 We do.

00:35:49.000 We could make a great decision.

00:35:50.000 But we are the ones who decide.

00:35:51.000 We take in all the... The virus doesn't decide a damn thing.

00:35:53.000 The virus is not a decision-making tool.

00:35:57.000 Right?

00:35:57.000 The virus is not the one who's sitting in the White House.

00:35:59.000 The virus is not The virus is a horrible, horrible thing that is happening right now.

00:36:05.000 And we are going to have to deal with that and the other horrible thing that's happening right now, which is the destruction of tens of millions of American jobs and hundreds of thousands of American businesses.

00:36:13.000 We are going to have to make those calls.

00:36:15.000 And frankly, I think it's manifestly irresponsible for people to consistently go around saying things like, it's going to become eminently clear when we can reopen based on the virus.

00:36:24.000 No, it is not.

00:36:25.000 If it were, then Europe wouldn't be struggling with it right now.

00:36:28.000 China wouldn't be struggling.

00:36:29.000 Singapore wouldn't be struggling.

00:36:30.000 Everyone is struggling with this right now.

00:36:31.000 You know why?

00:36:32.000 Because these are tough decisions.

00:36:33.000 And there are no good answers.

00:36:35.000 Sometimes all the answers are crappy.

00:36:37.000 The kind of ease, like, this annoys me.

00:36:40.000 The virus is not making the decision.

00:36:41.000 Now, I know what Fauci is trying to say, which is that we don't have enough data.

00:36:45.000 So just say that.

00:36:46.000 Say we don't have enough data.

00:36:47.000 Once we have the data, then we can start making some tough calls about what is the best possible way for us to decide between risk to life, on the one hand, and risk to quality of life and freedom, which turns out is kind of an important thing in America.

00:37:00.000 Like, I don't know about you, but I don't want to live like this for another 18 months.

00:37:03.000 I don't think many people do.

00:37:04.000 Anyway, here's Dr. Fauci suggesting the virus decides when we reopen.

00:37:08.000 The virus kinda decides whether or not it's gonna be appropriate to open or not.

00:37:13.000 What we're seeing right now are some favorable signs, as I've discussed with you a few times on this show.

00:37:19.000 It's looking like that in many cases, particularly in New York, we're starting to see a flattening and a turning around.

00:37:25.000 We would wanna see, I would wanna see, a clear indication that you are very, very clearly and strongly going in the right direction.

00:37:33.000 Because the one thing you don't wanna do is you don't wanna get out there Prematurely, and then wind up your back back in the same situation.

00:37:43.000 Right, of course nobody wants that, but that presumably is why you're ramping up the ICU beds, why you're ramping up the ventilators, why you're ramping up the treatments.

00:37:49.000 And again, nobody has offered a path out of this that doesn't involve second wave infections, barring massive testing regimes.

00:37:55.000 Like, I'm still confused about that particular policy, okay?

00:37:58.000 Like, there's been a lot of talk about, we need massive testing, and then we need contact tracing.

00:38:02.000 Is that realistic?

00:38:04.000 I mean, serious question, is that realistic?

00:38:06.000 Are we going to have tests available, like now, on demand?

00:38:10.000 Five minute tests that can test you for antibodies?

00:38:13.000 Because you don't have to have a fever, you don't have to be running a fever to be carrying coronavirus.

00:38:17.000 Are we going to test everybody?

00:38:18.000 Like once a day?

00:38:20.000 Once every two days?

00:38:21.000 300 million people?

00:38:23.000 165 million people in the workforce?

00:38:25.000 Like what does that actually look like?

00:38:26.000 Is that a realistic thing?

00:38:28.000 Or do we wait for the symptoms to crop up and once the symptoms crop up, then we go back and we trace every contact that you've had over the past two weeks?

00:38:34.000 At which point, in places like New York, it's going to be a little bit too late.

00:38:37.000 That may be possible in some smaller areas that are more spread out.

00:38:40.000 That is not nearly possible in New York, as they've found out.

00:38:44.000 Now Fauci, again, Fauci then adds to that, loosening restrictions can get us infected again.

00:38:50.000 Yes, I know.

00:38:51.000 So how do you plan to accomplish this thing?

00:38:55.000 If you start, and when one starts, to relax some of those restrictions, we know that there will be people who will be getting infected.

00:39:03.000 I mean, that is just reality.

00:39:05.000 The critical issue is to be able to, in real time, identify, isolate, and contact trace.

00:39:11.000 That's called containment. 0.78

00:39:13.000 Right now, in places like New Orleans and in New York City, we're in mitigation.

00:39:18.000 So, you know, I have confidence that with the help that we can do federally, from the federal government, to the fact that the states are really committed to doing it right.

00:39:28.000 I think that combination, hopefully, is going to get us to where we want to be.

00:39:32.000 Okay, where we want to be is the question.

00:39:35.000 What does where we want to be look like?

00:39:36.000 So Fauci finally is asked this question, and he says, well, I hope maybe next month the country can take some steps to reopen.

00:39:42.000 What the hell does that?

00:39:42.000 Okay, so what does that look like?

00:39:44.000 Can we hear it?

00:39:44.000 Like, what's the plan?

00:39:45.000 What's the plan?

00:39:47.000 I think it could probably start, at least in some ways, maybe next month.

00:39:51.000 And again, Jake, it's so difficult to make those kinds of predictions because they always get thrown back at you if it doesn't happen.

00:39:58.000 Not by you, but, you know, by any number of people.

00:40:01.000 We are hoping that at the end of the month we could look around and say, OK, is there any element here that we can safely and cautiously start pulling back on?

00:40:12.000 If so, do it.

00:40:14.000 If not, Then just continue to hunker down.

00:40:17.000 Okay, so what does that even look like?

00:40:20.000 What does that even look like?

00:40:21.000 Okay, then Fauci says, I hope voters will be able to go to the polls in November.

00:40:24.000 Based on what?

00:40:25.000 Okay, we've not even heard a plan.

00:40:26.000 What the hell are we talking about?

00:40:28.000 Like, I'm fine with a plan.

00:40:30.000 Can we have a plan?

00:40:32.000 I feel like giving the Joker speech in the dark night, right?

00:40:35.000 Everybody's okay so long as there's a plan.

00:40:36.000 We need an app, but he's right.

00:40:38.000 I mean, like we actually need some form of plan here and we need to know how realistic the plan is.

00:40:42.000 It can't just be people screaming, widespread testing and contact tracing.

00:40:46.000 Yes, I can say those words too.

00:40:47.000 It's magical, but that doesn't solve anything.

00:40:50.000 What system is going to be in place to make this stuff happen?

00:40:52.000 Here's Fauci saying he hopes voters will be able to go to the polls in November.

00:40:54.000 So he's already said he thinks that schools could open in September and polls could be open in November.

00:40:59.000 How?

00:41:00.000 Okay, let me, like, really, how?

00:41:02.000 My kids, as I've said before, are six and three.

00:41:05.000 Do you think my kid is gonna wear a mask in the classroom, my three-year-old?

00:41:09.000 I can't even get the kid to wear pants.

00:41:11.000 You think he's gonna wear a mask in the classroom?

00:41:13.000 It's not going to happen.

00:41:14.000 Okay, like, I took him to the doctor recently, and they asked him to wear a mask, and the first thing he did was he reached off and he pulled the mask, and I put it back on, he pulled it off, and I just put it on.

00:41:21.000 You think you're gonna be able to deal with classrooms full of four-year-olds?

00:41:23.000 How?

00:41:24.000 How?

00:41:25.000 And then here's Fauci saying that he hopes that we'll be able to go to the polls in November.

00:41:28.000 Listen, I hope lots of things.

00:41:30.000 I do.

00:41:31.000 But like, how about your input?

00:41:32.000 How about how we are making these decisions?

00:41:34.000 It is frankly annoying to me that nobody is even asking the question as to how these decisions get made.

00:41:38.000 What metrics are you using?

00:41:39.000 What additional data do you need?

00:41:40.000 Tell me so we can help.

00:41:42.000 And don't tell me the only way to help is just to stay home because I don't think that's right.

00:41:46.000 You're asking people to give up their livelihoods for good.

00:41:49.000 In order for you to not have any sort of plan, in order for you to not tell us how the formula works, here's Fauci saying that he hopes voters will be able to go to the polls in November.

00:41:56.000 I hope so, Jake.

00:41:58.000 I can't guarantee it.

00:41:59.000 I believe that if we have a good, measured way of rolling into this steps towards normality, that we hope by the time we get to November, that we'll be able to do it in a way which is the standard way.

00:42:16.000 However, and I don't want to be the pessimistic person, there is always a possibility as that as we get into next fall and the beginning of early winter that we could see a rebound.

00:42:28.000 Okay, so, okay.

00:42:30.000 I mean, alright.

00:42:32.000 Thanks for this complete level of uncertainty.

00:42:34.000 Now, again, if there's uncertainty, you're the expert.

00:42:36.000 Tell us how we alleviate the uncertainty.

00:42:38.000 That's what experts do.

00:42:39.000 Experts don't just say, I know the level of uncertainty.

00:42:41.000 They say, here's what we can do to alleviate the uncertainty.

00:42:44.000 Or alternatively, there's no way to alleviate the uncertainty.

00:42:46.000 In which case, we now have to make a hard decision in the presence of the data.

00:42:50.000 The assumption is the data is what the data is, what the data are, what the data are.

00:42:53.000 What are you going to do now?

00:42:54.000 Instead, we're not hearing what we need to know.

00:42:56.000 We're not hearing how we get the information we need.

00:42:58.000 We're not hearing how the decision gets made because we cannot continue like this.

00:43:01.000 It cannot continue.

00:43:02.000 Now, what are the media concerned with?

00:43:03.000 They're concerned with Fauci being mean to Trump.

00:43:06.000 So, Fauci was on with Tapper on CNN.

00:43:08.000 And Tapper says, OK, well, should we have locked this thing down earlier, like in February, like South Korea did?

00:43:14.000 And Fauci says, I think it's kind of unfair to compare us to South Korea.

00:43:17.000 Actually, that comparison doesn't hold.

00:43:18.000 Here's Fauci attempting to defend the president.

00:43:20.000 Now, the reason that I bring this up is because the headline yesterday was Fauci rips Trump.

00:43:23.000 I'm going to show you the clips that people are talking about.

00:43:26.000 Fauci is deliberately attempting to avoid ripping Trump.

00:43:29.000 Because he knows that if he pisses off Trump, then Trump is just going to get pissed off and not listen to him.

00:43:34.000 So here is Fauci trying to avoid ripping Trump.

00:43:36.000 The media then printed the headline, Fauci rips Trump. 1.00

00:43:38.000 And predictably enough, Trump then retweeted a call to fire Fauci because everything is idiotic and everyone's a moron. 1.00

00:43:43.000 Here is Fauci being asked about South Korea and attempting to avoid the comparison. 1.00

00:43:48.000 If you look, could you have done something a little bit earlier?

00:43:50.000 It would have had an impact, obviously.

00:43:52.000 But where we are right now is the result of a number of factors.

00:43:57.000 The size of the country, the heterogeneity of the country.

00:43:59.000 I think it's a little bit unfair to compare us to South Korea, where they had an outbreak in Daegu and they had the capability of immediately, essentially shutting it off completely in a way that we may not have been able to do in this country.

00:44:14.000 So obviously I would have been nice if we had a better head start, but I don't think you could say that we are where we are right now because of one factor.

00:44:22.000 It's very complicated, Jake.

00:44:25.000 Okay, now that is him attempting to avoid the, we should have just been South Korea.

00:44:28.000 Then Fauci was asked about whether lives could have been saved with WTO implementation.

00:44:32.000 He says, well, I mean, sure.

00:44:34.000 And if you'd shut down the entire economy in December, then you would have saved a lot of lives, but that's not how political decisions get made.

00:44:39.000 This was printed in the papers as Fauci ripping Trump.

00:44:42.000 He's working so hard not to rip Trump here.

00:44:44.000 I mean, just listen to it.

00:44:46.000 He's working desperately hard not to rip Trump because he knows what's going to happen.

00:44:48.000 You rip Trump and then Trump threatens to fire you.

00:44:50.000 Every single person in the administration knows the formula here.

00:44:53.000 And he's attempting to avoid it.

00:44:54.000 Unsuccessfully.

00:44:56.000 It's the what would have, what could have.

00:44:58.000 It's very difficult to go back and say that.

00:45:01.000 I mean, obviously, you could logically say that if you had a process that was ongoing and you started mitigation earlier, you could have saved lives.

00:45:10.000 Obviously, no one is going to deny that.

00:45:12.000 But what goes into those kinds of decisions is complicated.

00:45:15.000 But you're right.

00:45:16.000 I mean, obviously, if we had, right from the very beginning, shut everything down, it may have been a little bit different.

00:45:22.000 But there was a lot of pushback about shutting things down back then.

00:45:27.000 Okay, so that is him attempting to not rip Trump.

00:45:29.000 The media prints, he rips Trump, and then Trump immediately tweets out how he wants to, he retweets somebody saying that Fauci should be fired.

00:45:36.000 He said, somebody tweeted out, Deanna for Congress, I don't know who that is, tweeted out, Fauci is now saying that Trump, had Trump listened to medical experts earlier, he could have saved more lives.

00:45:45.000 Fauci was telling people on February 29th there was nothing to worry about, it posed no threat to the U.S.

00:45:49.000 public at large, time to hashtag fire Fauci, and Trump retweeted that.

00:45:53.000 And then he said, sorry, fake news.

00:45:55.000 It's all on tape.

00:45:55.000 I banned China long before people spoke up.

00:45:57.000 Thank you, OANN.

00:45:59.000 Come on.

00:46:00.000 Just come on.

00:46:02.000 Come on.

00:46:03.000 I understand that everybody is geared up for the, is Trump at fault game here.

00:46:08.000 I understand the media are very into it.

00:46:10.000 The New York Times ran an extraordinarily long piece today about how Trump, or over the weekend, about Trump's failures on the virus and how he was warned by a bunch of people inside the administration.

00:46:20.000 Dr. Carter Metcher writing on the night of January 28th in an email to the Department of Medical Affairs, any way you cut it, this is going to be bad.

00:46:27.000 The projected size of the outbreak already seems hard to believe.

00:46:30.000 Somebody, there was a whole group that called itself Red Dawn because they were figuring this thing was going to get really bad after the 1984 movie.

00:46:38.000 They started doing that.

00:46:40.000 You know, fairly early.

00:46:42.000 And then Trump apparently didn't take any of this stuff seriously.

00:46:44.000 The National Security Council office responsible for tracking pandemics received intelligence reports in early January predicting the spread of the virus.

00:46:51.000 Despite Trump's denial weeks later, he was told about a January 29th memo produced by Peter Navarro laying out the potential risks of the pandemic.

00:46:58.000 Half a million deaths.

00:46:59.000 The Health and Human Services Secretary, Alex Azar, warned Trump of the possibility of a pandemic on January 30th.

00:47:05.000 By the third week in February, the administration's top public health experts concluded they should recommend that Americans be warned to social distance and stay home from work.

00:47:13.000 The White House instead focused on messaging and crucial additional weeks went by the wayside.

00:47:18.000 Okay, all of that is true, right?

00:47:21.000 All of that is true.

00:47:22.000 Trump's people were saying a lot of things in the middle of all of this.

00:47:25.000 You know what else was happening?

00:47:26.000 Local officials were also ignoring all of this because it was so unthinkable.

00:47:30.000 We've done something unprecedented in American history.

00:47:32.000 A more important piece over at Politico that's being ignored is called Inside America's Two-Decade Failure to Prepare for Coronavirus.

00:47:38.000 And they talk about how basically every administration for several decades has been failing on this stuff, not just Trump.

00:47:45.000 And so it feels a lot like the 9-11 Commission.

00:47:47.000 Here was the immediate failure, and then here are all the failures that led up to that failure.

00:47:50.000 There's an article in the New York Times last week about how de Blasio and Cuomo didn't shut down the state until the end of March, basically.

00:47:57.000 So, listen, I'm all up for the, what did government do wrong, and my going theory, which is that everyone in government sucks at everything, and that the chains of bureaucracy are extraordinarily long, and that it is more likely that things go wrong than go right in government.

00:48:10.000 That theory has yet to be defeated.

00:48:13.000 But with that said, the media's focus in on Trump like a laser beam, like this is what everybody cares about right now, is just bizarre.

00:48:20.000 It's absolutely bizarre.

00:48:21.000 Okay, time for a quick thing I like and then we'll get to a thing that I hate.

00:48:25.000 So, things that I like today.

00:48:28.000 You know, my comfort food is a baseball book.

00:48:30.000 So there's a really good new baseball book out by Jared Diamond, who's the baseball reporter for the Wall Street Journal.

00:48:35.000 It's called Swing Kings, and it's all about the hitting coaches who have completely reshaped the game of baseball and how they have really focused on swinging up on the ball.

00:48:43.000 You were always taught when you were a kid that you're supposed to swing down on the ball.

00:48:46.000 You're supposed to hack the top half of the ball, try and hit line drives.

00:48:49.000 And Swing Kings basically changes that.

00:48:51.000 It basically talks about how Ted Williams, maybe the greatest hitter ever, had always thought you're supposed to swing up on the ball.

00:48:56.000 The ball's coming downhill from a mound.

00:48:57.000 You're supposed to try and swing up into the ball.

00:48:59.000 The reason you've seen a skyrocketing home run rate without steroids is because people have been shifting their swings dramatically.

00:49:05.000 It answered some questions I had about some players that you saw come out of nowhere, and you're like, that's gotta be Royds, right?

00:49:10.000 But it turns out, no, they just retooled their swings dramatically.

00:49:14.000 To check it out, it's a fun book, it's an easy read.

00:49:16.000 Swing Kings, the inside story of baseball's home run revolution.

00:49:18.000 So if you're a sports person like I am, and you are missing sports right now, then this can kind of fill the gap.

00:49:23.000 Okay, time for a quick thing that I hate.

00:49:26.000 So the U.S. 0.61

00:49:30.000 Surgeon General is a man named Jerome Adams, he happens to be black, and he has been giving these pressers and answering questions about what Americans should do.

00:49:38.000 Well, in the middle of one of these pressers, he was asked specifically about the African American communities, about Latino communities.

00:49:43.000 Now, there have been tons of articles recently, like lots of them, about the disparate health impacts of COVID-19.

00:49:50.000 Those articles have been focused heavily on the fact that black and Latino populations have been harder hit by coronavirus than other populations.

00:49:56.000 And this has led people like AOC to suggest that there is a disparity in healthcare in the United States.

00:50:00.000 That's not what's going on here.

00:50:02.000 It's led people to suggest that disparities in wealth have led to disparities in health conditions.

00:50:07.000 Some of that has been going on here.

00:50:09.000 The idea is that America's pre-existing racism has led to these health conditions and there is Maybe some evidence that, thanks to the wealth gap, that people are poorer, and if you're poorer, then you tend to eat less well, you don't eat as good food.

00:50:26.000 But here's the reality of the situation.

00:50:28.000 Right now, in America, if you want to eat healthy, you should be able to eat healthy.

00:50:32.000 People do have welfare, people do have food stamps, people do have access, generally, to a grocery store.

00:50:39.000 Even if, yes, you have to take a bus over to the grocery store that is not located in your four block radius.

00:50:45.000 In any case, Jerome Adams gets up and he's talking about some of the contributing factors to lack of health in some minority communities.

00:50:52.000 He says, we need to eat healthier.

00:50:54.000 We need to exercise.

00:50:56.000 We need to stop, if you're taking drugs, you need to stop taking drugs.

00:50:58.000 If you're doing alcohol, you need to stop drinking alcohol.

00:51:00.000 You need to do all these things. 0.93

00:51:02.000 And he's not specifically directing that at black and Latino people, but this is taken as though he is a racist for Jerome Adams, that he is a racist.

00:51:10.000 He has internalized racism for suggesting that their differential health Outcomes between black and Latino people in the United States and white people in the United States.

00:51:17.000 Which, again, is, I thought, what the message was for the past several weeks.

00:51:20.000 The message for the past several weeks was the New York Times headline, right?

00:51:23.000 Asteroids hit Earth tomorrow.

00:51:25.000 Women and minorities hit hardest.

00:51:28.000 That's been the headline from the New York Times for a while, which is COVID-19 affecting everyone.

00:51:31.000 Women and minorities hit hardest.

00:51:32.000 Although in this case, it would be men and minorities hit hardest.

00:51:34.000 In any case, here is Jerome Adams.

00:51:35.000 Here's what he said. 0.97

00:51:36.000 And then the reaction was just outsized and ridiculous. 0.73

00:51:40.000 Avoid alcohol, tobacco, and drugs. 0.54

00:51:43.000 And call your friends and family.

00:51:45.000 Check in on your mother.

00:51:45.000 She wants to hear from you right now.

00:51:48.000 And speaking of mothers, we need you to do this, if not for yourself, then for your abuela.

00:51:55.000 Do it for your granddaddy.

00:51:57.000 Do it for your big mama. 0.94

00:51:58.000 Do it for your pop pop.

00:52:00.000 We need you to understand, especially in communities of color, we need you to step up and help stop the spread so that we can protect those who are most vulnerable.

00:52:10.000 He said, he said, pop, pop, and he said, big mama or grandma.

00:52:14.000 How dare he?

00:52:15.000 How dare he?

00:52:16.000 So he's suggesting that maybe if everybody exercise personal responsibility, including in the black community, and then he uses some, some language that he has heard in his own upbringing, right? 0.85

00:52:25.000 He said this, he said, I used to call my grandpa pop, pop, like, and people were like, oh, he's a racist.

00:52:30.000 So Yamiche Alcindor, who can always be trusted to, for a hot take, she says, That Adams was being racist when he said all of this stuff.

00:52:38.000 That he's being a racist for pointing out health disparities.

00:52:41.000 Again, you can't have it both ways.

00:52:42.000 Either you want tremendous focus on the health disparities, which would include looking at things like personal behavior inside communities and how that is actually contributing to health disparities.

00:52:52.000 Like if you eat a lot of fast food, right?

00:52:54.000 People in minority communities are eating much more fast food than people who are not in minority communities, for example.

00:53:00.000 Well, it depends on the minority community.

00:53:02.000 Minority communities in like Los Angeles, for example.

00:53:05.000 In the American South, lots of people eat fast food, like all the time.

00:53:09.000 Just by studies.

00:53:11.000 But overall, it has been shown that black Americans tend to eat fast food more than white Americans.

00:53:16.000 Just broadly speaking.

00:53:17.000 Does that contribute to obesity, which contributes to health effects, which actually have a problem for COVID-19?

00:53:21.000 Yes.

00:53:22.000 Is it bad for Adams to mention this?

00:53:24.000 Apparently you're only supposed to mention health disparities when you're going to blame the system at large or American racism at large.

00:53:29.000 But when you're talking about personal activity and what you can do to change your risk from COVID-19, it's very bad and it makes you a racist.

00:53:34.000 So here's Yamiche Alcindor doing this routine. 0.91

00:53:37.000 You said that African-Americans and Latinos should avoid alcohol, drugs, and tobacco.

00:53:42.000 You also said do it for your abuela, do it for big mama, and pop pop.

00:53:48.000 There are some people online that are already offended by that language and the idea that you're saying behaviors might be leading to these high death rates.

00:53:55.000 Could you talk about whether or not people, could you I guess have a response for people who might be offended by the language that you used?

00:54:03.000 Okay, again, if you are super offended, I just want to know, are we supposed to discuss the racial disparity or are we not supposed to discuss the racial disparity?

00:54:09.000 And if we do discuss the racial disparity, is your chief complaint going to be that this black surgeon general is a racist for using language with regard to With regard to Latino grandmothers and grandfathers and aunts and uncles, and like, really?

00:54:25.000 That's where you're gonna go?

00:54:27.000 It seems to me you might be missing the point.

00:54:28.000 Deliberately, actually.

00:54:29.000 It seems to me that you might be deliberately missing the point in order to focus in on narratives that confirm your priors, which is that American racism is everything when it comes to health disparities in the United States, and personal behavior has nothing to do with anything.

00:54:42.000 Now let me just say this.

00:54:43.000 White, black, or green.

00:54:45.000 If you would like to live through COVID-19, here are a few things that you can do.

00:54:48.000 You can exercise.

00:54:49.000 You can eat better.

00:54:50.000 You cannot drink alcohol.

00:54:51.000 You cannot do drugs.

00:54:52.000 And if you are among a group of people who are doing that more often, particularly young people, don't do it.

00:54:58.000 Okay?

00:54:59.000 How about that?

00:55:00.000 And if he's asked about health disparities and he answers about health disparities and he uses statistics to back it up, I don't, again, if you're focused in on the racism narrative at this point in time, I think that you're completely missing the boat.

00:55:09.000 It's so funny.

00:55:10.000 For five seconds it was, the virus unites us all. 0.98

00:55:12.000 And then it went to, the virus is terrible for black and Hispanic people. 0.58

00:55:15.000 And if you mention that there might be differentials in behavior, statistically speaking, with regard to some behaviors, then that's very, very bad.

00:55:21.000 Or if you use language specifically to appeal to black and Hispanic people for issues that affect everybody, because you're talking to black and Hispanic people, that's also very bad. 1.00

00:55:31.000 What a stupid world we live in. 1.00

00:55:32.000 Seriously stupid. 1.00

00:55:33.000 Okay, so a little bit later this afternoon, apparently there will be an announcement on a regional reopening plan with governors from New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware. 0.99

00:55:41.000 Expect that to be, we're not reopening ever.

00:55:44.000 Expect that to be the outcome there.

00:55:46.000 We will also be having some more, we're going to be having some more updates on data as it comes out a little bit later today.

00:55:54.000 We have two more additional hours of content later today.

00:55:57.000 Otherwise, show up later tonight.

00:55:58.000 If you are a member of any sort, you get access for now to the All Access Live.

00:56:02.000 I believe I'm doing the All Access Live tonight, so we'll be hanging out.

00:56:04.000 I'll be wearing a t-shirt as is now my All Access Live garb.

00:56:08.000 I promise.

00:56:08.000 So, if you've been itching for a sight of these guns, I know.

00:56:12.000 But if you were, then that would be the time.

00:56:14.000 Otherwise, we'll see you here tomorrow.

00:56:15.000 I'm Ben Shapiro.

00:56:15.000 This is The Ben Shapiro Show.

00:56:21.000 The Ben Shapiro Show is produced by Colton Haas.

00:56:23.000 Directed by Mike Joyner.

00:56:24.000 Executive producer Jeremy Boring.

00:56:26.000 Supervising producer Mathis Glover and Robert Sterling.

00:56:29.000 Assistant director Pavel Lydowsky.

00:56:31.000 Technical producer Austin Stevens.

00:56:32.000 Playback and media operated by Nick Sheehan.

00:56:35.000 Associate producer Katie Swinnerton.

00:56:37.000 Edited by Adam Sajovic.

00:56:38.000 Audio is mixed by Mike Koromina.

00:56:40.000 Hair and makeup is by Nika Geneva.

00:56:42.000 The Ben Shapiro Show is a Daily Wire production.

00:56:44.000 Copyright Daily Wire 2020.

00:56:46.000 As the coronavirus doomsday models fall apart, the alarmists who pushed them are doubling down on their draconian policies. 0.84

00:56:53.000 We will examine the value of civil disobedience when power-hungry hypocrites get exposed and lash out.

00:56:59.000 Then, the former Biden staffer accusing the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee of sexual assault files a formal police complaint, and the mainstream media go into full cover-up mode to protect Joe.

00:57:11.000 Finally, we take a look at the glaring logical fallacy at the heart of the left's favorite coronavirus narrative.

The Ben Shapiro Show - April 13, 2020

Another Week Of Waiting | Ep. 990

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