The Ben Shapiro Show - BACK TO WINNING: Trump Negotiates Tariff Deal With UK

00:00:00.000 All righty, folks, tons to get to on today's show.

00:00:02.000 President Trump announces a huge tariff deal with the UK, and markets are responding.

00:00:08.000 Fans of Hamas took over Columbia University again, and Jerome Powell makes a decision about interest rates first.

00:00:13.000 Becoming a member of Daily Wire Plus isn't just a subscription, it's a statement.

00:00:16.000 It means you're joining millions of Americans who share your values, respect our history, and are committed to building a stronger future.

00:00:21.000 Members get ad-free, uncensored access to our daily shows from the most trusted names in media, in-depth investigative journalism, Okay, so in a moment, I'm going to get to President Trump's economic policy.

00:00:39.000 And the markets are responding, of course, quite positively to a vast shift in the direction of the Trump economic policy, a directional change that I've been calling for since well before Liberation Day.

00:00:50.000 I'm very happy about it as well.

00:00:51.000 The reason that's very important is because right now, the right...

00:00:54.000 Republicans have a lot of running room. 0.97

00:00:56.000 And one of the reasons they have a lot of running room is because the Democrats continue to be insane. 0.94

00:01:00.000 I don't just mean they're insane in terms of their policy preferences, although many of those policy preferences are quite crazy. 0.98

00:01:07.000 I mean, culturally speaking, the Democrats seem determined to do ridiculous things.

00:01:12.000 People on the left in big cities continue to push ridiculous policies, imagery that is going to make them more unpopular, which gives Republicans a lot of running room.

00:01:21.000 The latest sort of bizarre example.

00:01:24.000 But it's symptomatic of a broader imagistic crisis inside the Democratic Party.

00:01:27.000 Comes courtesy of Times Square.

00:01:29.000 So there is a brand new statue in Times Square.

00:01:32.000 It's 12 feet tall.

00:01:34.000 It is titled Grounded in the Stars by an artist named Thomas J. Price.

00:01:38.000 What is this 12-foot tall statue that is grounded in the stars?

00:01:42.000 Well, it appears to be a slightly to moderately overweight black woman wearing jeans that are too tight for her, a t-shirt that she got at Walmart, And staring angrily at the cashier at CVS. 1.00

00:01:55.000 That's what it is.

00:01:57.000 There's nothing about this that is aspirational.

00:01:59.000 There's nothing about this that is inspiring.

00:02:01.000 This person is completely anonymous.

00:02:03.000 We have no idea what makes her a hero or heroine.

00:02:05.000 Apparently, just being kind of grumpy in front of a TSA agent is enough to make you one of the heroes of American society.

00:02:12.000 The statue was meant to be a stark contrast to two other statues in Duffy Square.

00:02:18.000 Of Father Francis Duffy and George M. Cohen.

00:02:21.000 George M. Cohen's statue, of course, is a tribute to the founder of the Great White Way, Broadway, George M. Cohen.

00:02:28.000 And Father Duffy was a Canadian-American soldier, a Catholic priest, and a military chaplain who served in the 69th Infantry Regiment.

00:02:37.000 And he served in the Western Front in France during World War I. So Duffy Square is named for him.

00:02:43.000 So these are actual kind of heroic and world-changing figures.

00:02:47.000 And this is meant to be a contrast because this person is just a person who might need a dose of Ozempic and apparently is kind of frumpy and mad and uninspiring.

00:03:00.000 According to the website for this particular work, the work was created with the idea of disrupting traditional ideas.

00:03:09.000 Always when the left is...

00:03:11.000 Constantly attempting to disrupt traditional ideas.

00:03:13.000 Maybe the traditional idea is good.

00:03:14.000 Like, you should have to do something heroic for us to build you a statue. 0.93

00:03:17.000 It shouldn't just be a random black lady. 1.00

00:03:19.000 Although, I do understand that for the left, the basic idea is that every hero of the past is actually a villain, and the only person who you could put up a statue to is a person who's completely anonymous, has no background, no bad social media posts, and never did anything.

00:03:34.000 Those are the people to whom we should build statues.

00:03:37.000 There's nothing from the statue.

00:03:39.000 That makes this person in any way important to anyone else.

00:03:44.000 And yet, I guess this sort of self-centered statue is supposed to represent the future of America and the future of Western civilization.

00:03:52.000 Again, the work was created with the idea of disrupting traditional ideas of what a triumphant figure and challenges should be defined as.

00:04:00.000 According to the website, Price's work offers viewers a unique opportunity to experience Times Square in a new light and share in a moment of personal reflection and empathy.

00:04:08.000 Amidst the hyperactivity of the district. 0.76

00:04:11.000 That's ridiculous. 0.99

00:04:13.000 The whole thing is ridiculous. 0.99

00:04:14.000 If you just want to see random people standing around in Times Square, you could do that with random actual humans. 0.83

00:04:18.000 You don't need a 12-foot statue in order to accomplish this. 0.96

00:04:22.000 It's silly. 0.70

00:04:23.000 But that silliness has an underlying, depressing message to it, which is there is no such thing as heroism. 0.82

00:04:29.000 There is no such thing as iconic status that can be achieved by accomplishment.

00:04:35.000 Basically, the only thing worth worshipping...

00:04:38.000 is a bizarre narcissism of do-nothingism.

00:04:41.000 So if that's the sort of stuff the left wants to embrace, the right has a lot of running room.

00:04:44.000 They really do.

00:04:47.000 Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders is out there with his own form of narcissism.

00:04:51.000 So Bernie Sanders has been jetting around the country with Alexander Ocasio-Cortez doing these big rallies on behalf of socialism.

00:04:58.000 Bernie appeared on Fox News with Bret Baier and Bret Baier asked him, we noticed that he spent like over $200,000 on private jet flights.

00:05:06.000 And Bernie is unapologetic in his socialism.

00:05:09.000 He's a good Soviet.

00:05:11.000 He's a good Soviet commissar who has a Dasha out in the woods somewhere while everybody else is crammed into an apartment. 0.95

00:05:18.000 You've gotten criticized from other people.

00:05:20.000 Free Beacon says Bernie Sanders spent $221,000 on private jets fighting the oligarchy tour paid for by friends of Bernie Sanders.

00:05:29.000 That you've spent millions of dollars in campaign funds on private jet travel over the years.

00:05:34.000 How do you push back on both of those things?

00:05:36.000 When's the last time you saw Donald Trump during a campaign mode at National Airport?

00:05:41.000 No, no, no.

00:05:42.000 It doesn't.

00:05:42.000 But he's also not fighting the oligarchy.

00:05:45.000 No.

00:05:46.000 When you run a campaign and you do three or four or five rallies in a week, the only way you can get around to talk to 30,000 people.

00:05:53.000 Think I'm going to be sitting on a waiting line at United?

00:05:56.000 Waiting, you know, what, 30,000 people are waiting?

00:05:58.000 That's the only way you can get around.

00:05:59.000 No apologies for that.

00:06:00.000 That's what campaign travel is about.

00:06:02.000 We've done it in the past.

00:06:03.000 We're going to do it in the future.

00:06:06.000 So that would be yes on the private travel.

00:06:08.000 You think he's going to wait in line with you peons at the United counter? 0.81

00:06:12.000 You think he's really going to do that?

00:06:13.000 Now, as somebody who travels a lot, especially in the past few weeks, I've taken an awful lot of commercial airliner travel, like a lot of it.

00:06:20.000 I'm very tired because of it.

00:06:22.000 But you know what Bernie could do?

00:06:23.000 These rallies don't all have to be on the same day.

00:06:25.000 He could actually schedule them out where he doesn't have to take private flights.

00:06:29.000 But again, the rules don't apply to the elite socialists.

00:06:32.000 They only apply to everybody else.

00:06:34.000 Again, this sort of stuff is why the normie American turned toward the Trump administration.

00:06:39.000 Another reason the normie Americans turned toward the Trump administration was given, again, pictorial status by what happened at Columbia yesterday.

00:06:47.000 So yesterday, over at Columbia University, the students decided they were going to take over The library, again, and the administration really didn't do much about it.

00:06:58.000 According to the New York Times, dozens of pro-Palestinian demonstrators, they're pro-Khamasnax, were taken into police custody on Wednesday evening after occupying part of the main library on Columbia University's campus in an attempt to rekindle the protest movement that swept the campus last spring.

00:07:11.000 The protesters were wearing masks and kafiyas.

00:07:14.000 They burst through the security gate shortly after 3 p.m.

00:07:16.000 They hung banners in the soaring main room of Butler Library's second floor.

00:07:20.000 They renamed the space the Basel al-Araj.

00:07:23.000 Popular University.

00:07:24.000 So who exactly was Basel al-Arashel?

00:07:26.000 Back in 2017, he was killed by the IDF.

00:07:29.000 The IDF said, at the time, that he had been organizing terror attacks against Israelis.

00:07:34.000 He was part of a terror cell, allegedly, planning to carry out attacks on Israeli targets.

00:07:39.000 Inside his home, troops uncovered an M16 rifle, an improvised Carlos-style submachine gun.

00:07:45.000 And not only that, the Palestinian Authority had arrested him for planning attacks against Israelis, and they imprisoned him.

00:07:53.000 So again, they picked not the world's best martyrs for their examples.

00:07:58.000 Here is some of the video from the protesters taking over the library.

00:08:02.000 We'll be right back.

00:08:09.000 You can see they took over the entire library.

00:08:11.000 They're occupying the entire central component of the library.

00:08:15.000 They then started tussling with security.

00:08:17.000 Again, all this is a violation of law.

00:08:18.000 It is trespass.

00:08:19.000 And if you decide that you're going to confront officers, And try to harm them.

00:08:22.000 It's assault as well.

00:08:24.000 Here's some of the footage.

00:08:30.000 You can see they're trying to push their way through the police.

00:08:33.000 Trying to push their way through security.

00:08:36.000 All masked. 0.72

00:08:37.000 Wearing the kefias over their faces like terrorists. 0.68

00:08:40.000 Just delightful people.

00:08:41.000 This is at Columbia University.

00:08:43.000 One of the most prestigious universities in America.

00:08:45.000 A university that is under fire from the Trump administration.

00:08:48.000 Rightly so.

00:08:49.000 For its violation of the Civil Rights Act.

00:08:51.000 They wrote slogans like, Columbia will burn for the martyrs, and free Palestine, all over library walls and shelves.

00:08:58.000 So they committed all sorts of acts of vandalism as well.

00:09:02.000 Here are some of the protesters vandalizing the library shelves.

00:09:13.000 So just spray painting, nobody in sight, where's security, no one knows.

00:09:17.000 Okay, so eventually, some of these people were arrested, and then the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio put out a statement saying, we're reviewing the visa status of the trespassers and vandals who took over Columbia University's library.

00:09:28.000 Pro-Hamas thugs are no longer welcome in our great nation.

00:09:31.000 And what he means by that is, if you came here on a student visa to support Hamas, you shouldn't be here, which seems pretty intuitively correct. 1.00

00:09:37.000 The reason I bring all this up before we get to trade policy is because the Trump administration, as I've been saying over and over and over since the inauguration, has enormous amounts of work to do.

00:09:47.000 Everything from DEI to the trans issue.

00:09:49.000 Everything from deregulation to building up our military defense.

00:09:53.000 And the biggest thing that they have to do is make sure the economy keeps humming.

00:09:57.000 Because Democrats have provided them with unique opportunity in my lifetime for Republicans to actually do things.

00:10:03.000 Because guess what Americans don't like?

00:10:04.000 They don't like images of kafia-swathed terror supporters vandalizing some of the most prestigious American universities.

00:10:13.000 They don't like Bernie Sanders jabbering about how he gets to take a private jet while you're stuck in the third row at Southwest. 0.95

00:10:20.000 Americans don't like dumb statues in the middle of Times Square. 0.98

00:10:23.000 They're sort of degrading to the human spirit. 0.99

00:10:25.000 They don't like this sort of stuff.

00:10:26.000 So Republicans have a unique opportunity.

00:10:28.000 And what that means is you can't blow it based on bad economic policy.

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00:12:35.000 So, well before Liberation Day, I suggested that President Trump's giant tariff policies that he was proposing would be bad for the economy.

00:12:43.000 That they would create supply chain problems.

00:12:45.000 That they would not, in fact, achieve the goals they were seeking to achieve in terms of re-industrialization.

00:12:50.000 But that if tariffs were being used as a way to lower tariffs, if they were being used as a cudgel in order to get other countries to come back to the table and do better trade deals, they were acceptable and good.

00:13:00.000 Well, it's unclear exactly what the plan of the Trump administration was.

00:13:03.000 I think the most accurate take is that President Trump really did want to do full-scale Liberation Day tariffs, and then the stock market plummeted.

00:13:10.000 And President Trump, as I've said before, is a man who lives in the world of reality.

00:13:14.000 A bad headline.

00:13:15.000 He sticks and he moves.

00:13:16.000 This is what the stock market has been betting on pretty much all along.

00:13:19.000 It's why, as soon as he put out a tweet, basically revoking a large swath of the tariffs, the stock market started to jump again.

00:13:26.000 It's the reason why, when Secretary Scott Besant, Secretary of the Treasury, goes on TV, the stock markets feel a lot better.

00:13:33.000 And when Peter Navarro, Dullard, or Howard Lutnick, the Commerce Secretary, go on TV and talk about tariffs, the markets start to get a little bit worried.

00:13:40.000 Well, President Trump has now announced...

00:13:43.000 The first big trade deal.

00:13:45.000 And that is a good thing.

00:13:47.000 Because again, if we were to leave the current trade barriers in place, according to Yale's Budget Lab, consumers would face an overall effective tariff rate of 28%.

00:13:57.000 That is the highest since 1901.

00:14:00.000 1901.

00:14:01.000 Now, a huge amount of that tariff is coming vis-a-vis China.

00:14:04.000 However, all these other countries, where we put a 10% tariff rate on them, many of those countries were at like a 2% tariff rate.

00:14:11.000 So that is still a vast increase.

00:14:12.000 So President Trump today, he announced that he had this earth-shaking deal with the UK.

00:14:19.000 Here's what he had to say.

00:14:21.000 I just want to begin by saying that this is a very special day because it's Victory Day, World War II, May 8th.

00:14:30.000 And just by happenstance, we have the Prime Minister on the phone and we were great allies in that.

00:14:37.000 And it's very unusual that the trade deal comes due.

00:14:41.000 We signed it up on the same day that we had a great victory, the greatest victory of them all.

00:14:46.000 So we are talking more and more about Victory Day because we were a big part of it, and so was the UK.

00:14:55.000 And it's just, I guess, I don't know what you call it.

00:14:59.000 It's just incredible that that day is the same day that we signed a tremendous trade deal for both countries.

00:15:07.000 So I'm going to begin by just adding that we just concluded the rare earth deal with Ukraine. 0.89

00:15:13.000 That's been fully ratified and approved by their legislative branches.

00:15:18.000 And so we appreciate that.

00:15:20.000 And I'll be speaking with the president in a little while, a little bit later.

00:15:25.000 And we appreciate that.

00:15:27.000 But the deal is all now signed up and ratified.

00:15:30.000 And we have access to a massive amount of very, very high quality rare earth.

00:15:36.000 So, what exactly is in the deal?

00:15:38.000 Well, it is not a full-scale trade agreement because it takes a long time to actually negotiate a full-scale trade agreement.

00:15:43.000 It really is sort of a framework.

00:15:45.000 The framework is not as extensive as I would like it to be in terms of actual policy.

00:15:49.000 It doesn't immediately lower all the tariff rates down to zero, which I think would be the best policy.

00:15:53.000 It lowers tariff rates on certain automotive goods, some steel products.

00:15:59.000 It appears to leave a baseline 10% tariff.

00:16:01.000 Again, I don't think this is the best possible trade policy, but...

00:16:04.000 And the reason the markets are responding is because what they are seeing is that President Trump, if the economy looks to be sinking, is going to adjust and reverse himself.

00:16:13.000 And you're seeing this across a wide variety of Trumpian policy.

00:16:17.000 So, for example, there are a bunch of articles that came out over the course of the last 72 hours all about how tariffs on Chinese goods were really harming young families because a lot of the products that are coming in and being tariffed are oriented toward kids and babies.

00:16:32.000 As the Washington Post pointed out, virtually every car seat, stroller, bassinet, and changing table sold in the United States is made in China, making children's products industry among the most vulnerable to fast-rising costs and shortages.

00:16:44.000 Well, again, if you look at the actual statistics, 98% of all car seats are made in China, 97% of all strollers are made in China, beds, bassinets, play yards, changing tables, 94%, high chairs, 92%.

00:16:56.000 So that's a problem for young families.

00:16:59.000 So President Trump saw that headline.

00:17:01.000 And his first move was to say that he was going to try to make exceptions for that.

00:17:05.000 He was in the Oval Office, and he was asked about exemptions.

00:17:08.000 He said, I'll think about it.

00:17:09.000 I don't know.

00:17:10.000 I want to make it nice and simple.

00:17:11.000 He said he doesn't want so many exemptions that it creates confusion, but he said that he would look into it.

00:17:17.000 And Scott Besson, Treasury Secretary, was testifying before the House Financial Services Committee, and he was asked about it, and he said it's under consideration.

00:17:25.000 So, again, the markets are looking for President Holt to punch holes through his own tariff.

00:17:30.000 Regime.

00:17:32.000 And President Trump is doing this repeatedly.

00:17:35.000 So to take another example, there's been a lot of debate over export controls on things like NVIDIA chips.

00:17:43.000 So the idea is NVIDIA chips are the most sophisticated chips that are out there.

00:17:46.000 We have to prevent China from getting them because otherwise China will use them. 0.99

00:17:49.000 But NVIDIA is arguing that it doesn't matter, that China is going to find a way to get those chips anyway.

00:17:56.000 That China is developing other ways of sort of brute forcing the chips.

00:18:00.000 And that actually the best thing you can do is make China dependent on NVIDIA chips because NVIDIA is a unique company.

00:18:06.000 Jensen Huang, who is the head of the company, has oriented NVIDIA.

00:18:09.000 So they are redesigning their chips every six months or so.

00:18:12.000 Like they come up with a new chip really, really, really fast.

00:18:14.000 So the minute that a chip hits the market, it gets consumed by the market.

00:18:17.000 But the market can't just be gamed by China because NVIDIA is already ahead of the market.

00:18:23.000 So his argument is we'll dominate the Chinese. 0.89

00:18:24.000 We'll just keep pumping out new chips.

00:18:27.000 And they'll be reliant on American know-how.

00:18:30.000 And that will mean that they can't sort of develop alternative pathways in the same way that the United States has become reliant in some crucial ways and bad ways on supply lines from China.

00:18:40.000 We should make China reliant on crucial supply lines from the United States is the argument that NVIDIA is making.

00:18:46.000 There's an article by Aaron Ginn in the Wall Street Journal all about this, talking about what he calls the self-defeating AI export controls.

00:18:54.000 He says, in efforts to maintain America's head start.

00:18:57.000 U.S. policymakers are targeting graphics processing unit access and semiconductor tooling with a regime of ever-expanding export controls with an emphasis on restricting Chinese GPU acquisition.

00:19:07.000 That focus misses the point.

00:19:09.000 Exporting hardware is not the same as exporting capability.

00:19:13.000 Cutting off China's access to American chips might have slowed model development, but it also sharpened Beijing's skill at diffusion in another way.

00:19:19.000 China now leads the world in open-source AI.

00:19:21.000 That lead has emerged under the constraints imposed by U.S. policymakers.

00:19:24.000 What America blocks temporarily in outputs, like models, it enables permanently in inputs, like chips.

00:19:31.000 If AI is eating the world, says Arrington, we must ensure it eats on American hardware and resources.

00:19:36.000 The U.S. should be flooding the world with American GPUs in a concerted way.

00:19:40.000 Untargeted export controls don't stop adversaries.

00:19:42.000 They do punish allies and accelerate technical independence from American frameworks.

00:19:46.000 The American strategy should be simple. 0.52

00:19:48.000 Let every aligned country run on NVIDIA, Silicon, and American standards.

00:19:52.000 Biden-Era restrictions are targeting an enormous number of countries.

00:19:56.000 Allies, like Switzerland, India, Portugal, Israel, and Argentina.

00:20:01.000 Mexico, which assembles our GPU servers, requires U.S. approval to transfer or re-export those services.

00:20:07.000 So, the Trump administration heard the message.

00:20:10.000 And now, apparently, President Trump is openly considering a plan to overhaul regulations that would limit AI chips and their distribution in foreign countries.

00:20:21.000 The Commerce Department plans to replace the rule, which imposed caps on how many chips could go to countries like India, Switzerland, Mexico, and Israel.

00:20:29.000 Because again, the idea is that if you're a third-party country, you should be basically using American AI chips.

00:20:34.000 You shouldn't be using Chinese-made AI chips.

00:20:37.000 According to the Wall Street Journal, the decision is at least temporarily a boon for tech titans who have fought the rules and been buffeted by a wave of export restrictions in recent years.

00:20:46.000 So, again, the Trump administration is constantly sort of experimenting.

00:20:51.000 They try a thing.

00:20:52.000 If it doesn't work, they don't do the thing anymore.

00:20:53.000 This is the benefit of having a non-ideological president.

00:20:56.000 It's also the detriment of having a non-ideological president because sometimes that means that you experiment with some pretty bad ideas.

00:21:02.000 Speaking of which, one of the bad ideas that the Trump administration is now experimenting with.

00:21:07.000 Again, there's a lot of good news now starting to come out from the Trump administration.

00:21:11.000 Deregulation.

00:21:11.000 The tax bill seems to be moving forward in the Congress, which is a must.

00:21:15.000 And of course, with the UK trade deal, there's a reorientation of the American economy.

00:21:20.000 We are moving back in that direction, which is why markets rose.

00:21:25.000 But again, because it's a non-ideological administration, President Trump is also playing with some rather bad ideas.

00:21:31.000 So, for example, according to Politico, President Trump now plans to revive an effort to dramatically slash drug costs by tying the amount the government pays for medicines to lower prices abroad.

00:21:42.000 So, next week, he's expected to sign an executive order directing aides to pursue an initiative called Most Favored Nation for a selection of drugs within the Medicare program.

00:21:50.000 The goal would be to force prices down.

00:21:53.000 So, the basic idea would be that if Canada is buying certain drugs in the American market at a lower price than American insurance companies are paying for it, then American insurance companies or Medicaid should basically be paying the same price as the Canadians.

00:22:06.000 The problem for this, of course, is that we should be doing the opposite.

00:22:08.000 If we were actually going to make a gain, From a tariff war with, say, Canada.

00:22:12.000 What we should be doing is saying that you guys are artificially lowering the actual amount that you are paying for these drugs.

00:22:22.000 The United States is footing the bill for all of the R&D on these drugs.

00:22:26.000 American consumers are footing the bill for that with higher prices.

00:22:29.000 And they're subsidizing places like Canada and the UK and every place else that is actually buying American drugs.

00:22:34.000 They are getting a below market price, and we in the United States are paying an above market price.

00:22:38.000 We should force those countries to actually pay the market price.

00:22:41.000 We should not allow them to collectively bargain using their state status against the drug companies in the United States if they wish to have lower trade barriers with the United States.

00:22:52.000 Instead, the Trump administration is messing around with what is effectively a Bernie Sanders proposal.

00:22:57.000 This, again, is not a particularly good proposal with regards to drug pricing policy.

00:23:04.000 I would hope that that one also is met with market disquiet so that President Trump moves off of it.

00:23:12.000 As the Wall Street Journal points out, Medicaid already receives hefty discounts for drugs under statutory formulas that require manufacturers to kick back a share of a medicine's price to states in a rebate.

00:23:21.000 Medicaid rebates in 2023 amounted to 52% of the program's drug spending.

00:23:26.000 Drugs accounted for less than 4% of Medicaid spending in 2023.

00:23:29.000 The Fed spent 10 times more on hospital payments.

00:23:33.000 Even if Republicans required drug makers to give away medicines to Medicaid, savings would not come close to the kind of savings that Republicans are looking for in the tax bill.

00:23:41.000 And what this would actually lead to, if Medicaid crams down these prices, is fewer companies actually just selling to Medicaid.

00:23:47.000 They just move into the private markets.

00:23:49.000 And so it undermines the efficacy of Medicaid, whatever efficacy there is.

00:23:53.000 So again, I think President Trump sticks and moves based on the success of a policy.

00:23:58.000 That sometimes means he proposed some not particularly useful policies.

00:24:02.000 Meanwhile, Iyer is rising again inside the Trump administration because the Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, announced yesterday that he would not, in fact, be lowering the interest rates.

00:24:12.000 I agree with him.

00:24:13.000 We should be in wait-and-see mode at this point.

00:24:15.000 We don't know the impact of the tariffs.

00:24:17.000 Policies have long tails.

00:24:19.000 Frameworks for negotiations are not, in fact, long-form trade deals.

00:24:22.000 And so one of the things you do have to worry about if you're President Trump is an inflationary economy.

00:24:27.000 Inflation killed the Biden presidency.

00:24:29.000 It could easily kill the Trump presidency. 0.68

00:24:31.000 If we were to, for example, lower the interest rates in the middle of a supply chain crisis brought on by much higher tariffs.

00:24:37.000 Here was Jerome Powell explaining his decision yesterday.

00:24:41.000 In support of our goals, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged.

00:24:48.000 The risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation appear to have risen, and we believe that the current stance of monetary policy Well, again, what he's doing here is he's saying, listen, we want to keep that bullet in the chamber, right?

00:25:06.000 If the economy takes a serious downturn, we want to be able to lower the interest rates.

00:25:09.000 We don't want to preemptively lower the interest rates into an inflationary economy before we have to do any of that.

00:25:18.000 He said, we don't feel like we need to be in a hurry.

00:25:21.000 We feel like it's appropriate to be patient.

00:25:23.000 When things develop, we have a record.

00:25:25.000 We can move quickly when that is appropriate.

00:25:27.000 He points out that uncertainty about the economy is elevated.

00:25:30.000 That of course is true. 0.66

00:25:31.000 Again, I think that the markets are correctly assessing that President Trump is moving away from his gigantic trade war against the rest of the world.

00:25:39.000 However, that doesn't mean uncertainty has gone away by any stretch of the imagination.

00:25:42.000 Here was Jerome Powell yesterday.

00:25:45.000 My gut tells me that uncertainty about the path of the economy is extremely elevated, and that the downside risks have increased.

00:25:55.000 The risk is, as we pointed out in our statement, the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen, but they haven't materialized yet.

00:26:06.000 They're really not in the data yet.

00:26:10.000 Okay, so again, he's right that they're not in the data yet, but the sort of danger is that the data is always a trailing indicator.

00:26:17.000 So, for example, we know that many, many, many ports are empty right now.

00:26:21.000 Like the Port of Seattle is basically receiving no ships.

00:26:23.000 And we know that there are a bunch of blank ships, blank sails as they're called, that are arriving at ports with nothing on them.

00:26:31.000 That has not yet kind of sunk into the economy or passed through the economy.

00:26:36.000 And so to preemptively lower the interest rates while supply chains are strained would be exactly the same thing.

00:26:44.000 That Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve did during the Biden administration.

00:26:46.000 That'd be a mistake.

00:26:47.000 COVID created supply line problems, supply chain problems, and then Jerome Powell and company continued to lower those interest rates.

00:26:54.000 And that helped create the super bubble in terms of pricing in the United States.

00:26:59.000 So that's the thing that they are attempting to avoid right now.

00:27:02.000 We'll get to more on this in a moment.

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00:29:20.000 Well, meanwhile...

00:29:21.000 Doge continues to uncover serious waste, fraud, and abuse.

00:29:26.000 The Daily Wire has a fascinating piece.

00:29:29.000 Luke Roziak, our intrepid investigative reporter, has a pretty amazing piece, Where Our Money Was Going via USAID.

00:29:37.000 According to Luke, when Department of Government Efficiency aides showed up at a small USAID-linked federal agency called the African Development Foundation in March, its management locked the doors and refused to let them in.

00:29:47.000 A fired board member sued to stop Doge.

00:29:50.000 The group was lauded for resisting Doge's demands for access to US ADF systems, including financial records, payments, and human resources systems.

00:29:58.000 But according to several former employees, it may have been that the actual objection was something else entirely.

00:30:04.000 That the actual objection was that there was a bit of impropriety going on, shall we say.

00:30:12.000 According to Luke, The African Development Foundation has an annual budget of just $45 million, but operating out of sight and out of mind, it might have been the most corrupt agency in Washington, D.C., as employees have been sounding the alarm for years about a culture of self-dealing, abuse, anti-white discrimination.

00:30:28.000 By law, the agency is only allowed to give grants to Africa-based groups, but to move money through African entities and then back into the United States to pad the salaries of D.C. bureaucrats and pay friends and former employers, according to employees.

00:30:40.000 Until the Doge takeover, which culminated in U.S. Marshals ordering building security to let Trump administration officials in, the agency was led by CEO Travis Adkins, who arrived in 2021 after working at USAID.

00:30:50.000 An assistant to Adkins said, after she asked why her paycheck was lower than agreed upon, Adkins informed her the remainder would be coming from an overseas account.

00:30:59.000 According to this woman, Adkins sent me an email connecting me with a guy in Africa who asked for my banking information, and then that guy wired me $17,000.

00:31:07.000 Okay, all of this is really, really sketchy and has led to accusations of international money laundering.

00:31:15.000 And there is indeed an enormous amount of waste, fraud, and abuse in the federal government.

00:31:19.000 Doge has been uncovering it.

00:31:20.000 Are those the kind of numbers that are going to be sufficient to cure the national deficit or the national debt?

00:31:25.000 No, but it's a step in the right direction.

00:31:27.000 Meanwhile, information continues to emerge about Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the hero of the left who is visited by an actual sitting United States senator.

00:31:35.000 Supposed victim of the Trump administration.

00:31:38.000 Now, according to Breitbart News, Kilmar Abrego Garcia is being investigated by the DOJ after a convicted human smuggler told the FBI that he hired Abrego Garcia to smuggle illegal immigrants into the United States, according to a new report.

00:31:51.000 So you guys picked the wrong victim, man.

00:31:53.000 Again, the Democrats are apparently utterly incapable of saying two things at once.

00:31:59.000 Kilmar Abrego Garcia should not be in the country and seems to be a quite bad person.

00:32:02.000 And also, everybody is entitled to some level of due process.

00:32:06.000 Now, to be fair, Republicans are also having a difficult time holding those two thoughts in place at the same time.

00:32:12.000 So the Democrats are like, no, he's probably wonderful.

00:32:14.000 He's a Maryland father.

00:32:15.000 And then it turns out that he has been for years accused of being an MS-13 gang member.

00:32:20.000 And his wife made repeated police reports about him beating her and sought orders of protection against him.

00:32:26.000 And the DHS released a piece of body cam footage from 2022.

00:32:32.000 Where troopers pull over Abrego Garcia, and there were nine people inside the car, none of whom had luggage, which looks a lot like a smuggling operation. 0.97

00:32:42.000 But, again, because everything is stupid, we can't hold two ideas at once.

00:32:47.000 So, Senator Lankford from Oklahoma, he has come under fire, James Lankford, for saying the obvious here, which is that Kilma Abrego Garcia should not be in the country, and also, even illegal immigrants, What's been confusing on this is some people see due process like as an American citizen. 0.97

00:33:15.000 That's a right to a jury trial.

00:33:17.000 That's all those different things.

00:33:18.000 That's not true for due process for someone who's not a citizen of the United States.

00:33:22.000 It's a different process.

00:33:23.000 It's often just literally what people call an immigration judge is not a typical federal judge or a state judge.

00:33:30.000 This is someone that's in the bureaucracy that their task for DHS is that task on it.

00:33:35.000 So they're a government employee career.

00:33:37.000 That's an immigration judge.

00:33:39.000 So it's a very different process for it.

00:33:41.000 But yes, there is a need to be able to give an opportunity for someone to be able to make an argument before they're removed in the country.

00:33:47.000 you Okay, so apparently this is too much.

00:33:51.000 This very, very moderate statement that Lankford is making here, which is saying...

00:33:54.000 That there are actual procedures for deporting people and you're supposed to follow those procedures and a court will hold that.

00:33:59.000 This was apparently too much for some people on the right who were angry and fuming.

00:34:05.000 Cat's Herd, who again, amazing to me that a person who calls himself Cat's Herd has wide, apparently, appeal and also impact inside the MAGA movement.

00:34:13.000 But, you know, we live in a brand new world where all voices are considered equally.

00:34:19.000 Wise. 0.98

00:34:19.000 He said, I'm so sick of these fake ass weak cowards in the Republican Party running to fake news CNN to undermine the voters and the president. 0.98

00:34:25.000 How is that undermining the voters and the president? 1.00

00:34:27.000 Seriously.

00:34:27.000 Lankford is in favor of the deportations.

00:34:29.000 He's just saying that if you actually want to accomplish this, you have to follow the process because otherwise courts will stop you, which is true.

00:34:37.000 I'm sorry, but the idea that Lankford is some sort of traitor for saying the obvious, which is that pursue a good policy in the most precise possible way in order to achieve success.

00:34:46.000 If you want President Trump to succeed, then you can totally agree with his ends and also believe that the means that he is applying to achieve those ends need to be well calibrated.

00:34:56.000 I can totally agree with what he's attempting to do with China while believing that the way he's approaching it is the wrong way and probably destined to backfire.

00:35:03.000 When it comes to illegal immigration, I can praise the means and the ends when it comes to the southern border. 0.63

00:35:08.000 He's been unbelievable on that.

00:35:09.000 The administration has been incredible on that.

00:35:11.000 I can praise Tom Homan to this guy.

00:35:13.000 I think he's great.

00:35:14.000 Our borders are.

00:35:15.000 I can praise what Kristi Noem is doing, generally speaking.

00:35:17.000 I can also say, I think we should say, that actually, due process rights under the Constitution, as the courts have already ruled, requires some form of process before people are removed.

00:35:28.000 And the Trump administration is best served by expediting all those processes to remove people faster.

00:35:32.000 Because otherwise, you're going to end up in court interminably, fighting these battles for no apparent reason.

00:35:38.000 There's plenty of stuff the administration can do to facilitate deportation.

00:35:43.000 Including, by the way, cracking down on sanctuary cities.

00:35:45.000 The acting ICE director yesterday mentioned that the Trump administration is going to start going after sanctuary cities.

00:35:53.000 Here's the acting ICE director, a man named Todd Lyons.

00:35:57.000 So we're going to support men and women in law enforcement.

00:36:00.000 We're going to go out and take these public safety threats out of the communities.

00:36:03.000 Well, when people like the government of Illinois bar law enforcement from working with another law enforcement agency...

00:36:09.000 It just absolutely makes no sense.

00:36:11.000 Sanctuary laws just make it so hard for us.

00:36:16.000 Okay, that is right.

00:36:17.000 That is right.

00:36:18.000 And so going after sanctuary cities for violation of law is well worthwhile.

00:36:21.000 Again, applying the law equally and consistently is a very, very good idea.

00:36:26.000 Applying it inconsistently, policies being applied in wild fashion does not actually achieve the goal.

00:36:32.000 And I'm all about results.

00:36:33.000 I just want to see the results.

00:36:34.000 Listen, when President Trump was running, a lot of people were talking about...

00:36:37.000 The character of President Trump?

00:36:39.000 Or what is he like as a person?

00:36:41.000 To me, when you look at your politicians, that stuff should be basically irrelevant at this point in time.

00:36:46.000 We are well beyond the point in American history, since the Clinton era, where a character was the deciding factor in presidential elections.

00:36:52.000 Just is not.

00:36:53.000 It isn't.

00:36:54.000 That's why Mitt Romney wasn't president in 2012.

00:36:57.000 The thing that matters most right now is, does the plumber fix the toilet?

00:37:01.000 That's it.

00:37:02.000 So, it matters very little to me whether the plumber intends to fix the toilet.

00:37:06.000 And then proceeds to botch the job.

00:37:09.000 All I care about is whether the toilet is fixed.

00:37:11.000 So, President Trump wants to fix the toilet.

00:37:13.000 In many areas, he is fixing the toilet that is Washington, D.C. But in places where I think he's going about it the wrong way, I'd prefer that he do it better so the toilet gets fixed.

00:37:21.000 And I don't think that pointing that out is a critique of Trump as a president or as a human.

00:37:27.000 I think it is an attempt to call for the right direction to be taken to achieve the actual goals.

00:37:34.000 If you want Trump to succeed, the only thing that succeeds is actual success.

00:37:38.000 And meanwhile, on the foreign front, India versus Pakistan continues to heat up.

00:37:43.000 According to Sadhaned Dume, writing for the Wall Street Journal, the drumbeat to impending war in the Indian subcontinent just got a lot louder.

00:37:50.000 India said early on Wednesday it has conducted military strikes on nine terrorist infrastructure sites in Pakistan, and Pakistan administered Kashmir in retaliation for a terrorist attack that killed more than two dozen civilians, mostly Indian tourists, in Kashmir on April 22nd.

00:38:04.000 Pakistan then called the Indian moves acts of war and vowed to retaliate.

00:38:07.000 Again, they've been effectively at war, India and Pakistan, since their partition, which took place in 1947, by the way.

00:38:16.000 It's always amazing that you hear people say, well, Israel's a fake state.

00:38:19.000 India and Pakistan literally were created out of the British mandate the same exact time, and nobody ever says that.

00:38:24.000 Anyway, side point.

00:38:27.000 Dealing with Pakistan, as this columnist says, an unstable nation brimming with armed jihadists is a serious challenge for India. 0.96

00:38:33.000 New Delhi has to find a way to deter Pakistan army-backed jihadist groups that shelter under Pakistan's nuclear umbrella while factoring in Islamabad's support from China, which Pakistan calls its iron brother.

00:38:43.000 The West also has a Pakistan problem because it's unclear whether Pakistan is a sort of anti-terror ally, not really, but sometimes they help out, or whether they're an actual enemy of the United States.

00:38:55.000 It's a very complicated situation, obviously.

00:38:58.000 President Trump...

00:39:00.000 He says the obvious here.

00:39:01.000 He would like for this to stop before it escalates into nuclear war.

00:39:05.000 I get along with both.

00:39:06.000 I know both very well.

00:39:08.000 And I want to see them work it out.

00:39:10.000 I want to see them stop.

00:39:11.000 And hopefully they can stop now.

00:39:13.000 They've gone tit for tat.

00:39:15.000 So hopefully they can stop now.

00:39:17.000 But I know both.

00:39:18.000 We get along with both countries very well.

00:39:21.000 Good relationships with both.

00:39:22.000 And I want to see it stop.

00:39:24.000 And if I can do anything to help, I will be there.

00:39:29.000 Okay, that is the right approach, obviously.

00:39:32.000 Now, again, I think that that approach is being taken by China as well, neither China nor the United States.

00:39:38.000 China backing Pakistan, the United States largely backing India, although we do have security arrangements with Pakistan.

00:39:43.000 Nobody wants this escalating further.

00:39:45.000 But as I said yesterday, this is just a great object lesson in why nuclear proliferation among really sketched countries is a terrible, terrible, terrible idea, which brings us to the latest with regard to Iran. 0.65

00:39:56.000 So the administration continues to send wildly mixed signals about what a good Iran deal would look like.

00:40:01.000 President Trump has been pretty consistent that the Iranian government cannot have nuclear capacity.

00:40:07.000 But it's unclear whether they mean to allow some sort of civilian nuclear capacity.

00:40:12.000 Just to be clear, if you're building nuclear capacity under a mountain, I don't believe that you are doing so because you need nuclear energy in oil-rich Iran.

00:40:20.000 The only reason you're attempting to build nuclear facilities in Iran is because you want to nuke. 0.97

00:40:24.000 That is the only reason.

00:40:25.000 Because it turns out one of the great guarantors of the longevity of your regime is a nuclear weapon.

00:40:32.000 North Korea only exists as the hellhole that it is because it has a nuclear weapon. 0.96

00:40:36.000 That is the only reason. 0.65

00:40:38.000 Because under the crazy man theory, the idea is that if ever there was an attempt at regime change, both internal or external, in North Korea, which is the worst place on planet Earth, that if that happened, then a nuclear weapon might get fired.

00:40:49.000 There's a reason why the worst people are pursuing nuclear weapons right now.

00:40:53.000 So if the Trump administration is moving toward some sort of Obama 2.0 deal with Iran, that is a full-scale disaster area.

00:40:59.000 And obviously that's what Iran wants. 0.85

00:41:00.000 Iran is very good at this game.

00:41:03.000 The phrase in the Middle East that's often used about Iran is that they never win a war or lose a peace, which is a pretty good description. 0.99

00:41:10.000 The attempt the other day by Iran to tell the Houthis to stop hitting American shipping in the Red Sea so as to get the United States to stop hitting the Houthis and also to create some sort of warm feeling between the Iranians and the United States.

00:41:23.000 Before upcoming nuclear negotiations, the region sought for what it really was, which was an attempt to separate off the United States from its allies in Israel with the hope that that would extend, that logic would then extend to an Iranian nuclear deal where basically the United States said, well, you know, if you develop ballistic missile technology or if you develop terror connections or even if you develop nuclear weapons but you're aiming it mostly at like Israel, then whatever, we don't really care.

00:41:48.000 The problem with that philosophy is that a nuclear-armed Iran means a nuclear-armed Saudi. 0.80

00:41:53.000 It means a bristling nuclear-armed Israel. 0.94

00:41:56.000 Israel, of course, already has nuclear weapons, which is one of the reasons it has survived so long in a region surrounded by hundreds of millions of people who wish to exterminate it. 0.98

00:42:06.000 But proliferation among non-allied countries with the United States is generally a very bad thing. 0.58

00:42:10.000 It's the only reason you care about the border between India and Pakistan today.

00:42:14.000 So the sort of mixed signals that are being sent by the administration with regard to an Iran deal.

00:42:19.000 Here's what a good Iran deal would look like. 0.81

00:42:21.000 Seriously, what a good Iran deal would look like. 0.97

00:42:22.000 The kind of deal that would allow for an off-ramp from any sort of strike on Iran.

00:42:28.000 This is the only form of a good Iran deal. 0.94

00:42:30.000 Iran completely dismantles all nuclear capacity inside its country.

00:42:34.000 They do not need nuclear energy.

00:42:36.000 And America has inspectors on the ground watching it.

00:42:40.000 Those two things, that's what a good deal looks like.

00:42:42.000 Anything short of that is a bad deal.

00:42:44.000 Period.

00:42:44.000 End of story.

00:42:45.000 Any sort of Obama deal where they still have civilian nuclear enrichment they can just ramp into high gear the minute that the United States is not looking.

00:42:51.000 Foreign inspectors from Russia, for example, or the IAEA, that is not going to be sufficient.

00:42:57.000 And whether the United States takes part in a strike or not, it's certainly not going to be sufficient for Israel, which sees, correctly, an Iranian nuclear weapon as an existential threat. 0.95

00:43:06.000 Well, we should always remember in all of this that when it comes to Middle Eastern policy, whatever the questions are about the Trump administration's approach, they will never be as bad as the Biden administration was.

00:43:14.000 A brand new investigation has found that the, you remember that?

00:43:18.000 Floating Gaza Pier.

00:43:20.000 Remember this?

00:43:20.000 The Biden administration decided that they were going to try to create a humanitarian aid pier in the Mediterranean.

00:43:25.000 The dumbest idea of all time.

00:43:27.000 It turns out it left 62 U.S. personnel injured, one service member dead, and caused $31 million in damage to military equipment, and basically ended up distributing very, very low amounts of aid. 1.00

00:43:38.000 Because it was really stupid. 0.95

00:43:40.000 And that aid ended up being hijacked by Hamas anyway. 1.00

00:43:42.000 So slow clap once again for the Biden administration, the worst foreign policy administration of my lifetime.

00:43:48.000 All right, folks, the show continues now, but only behind the paywall.

00:43:50.000 We're going to get to Disneyland and Disney. 0.98

00:43:52.000 Are they the biggest hypocrites in human history? 0.95

00:43:54.000 I mean, they have to be pretty close at this point. 0.91

00:43:56.000 When you become a member, by the way, you get all sorts of goodies, not just the extras of the show.

00:43:59.000 You're also going to get All Access Live, where you hang out with me and Matt Walsh's movies and All Access Live with him and stuff with Jordan and stuff with all of our hosts, all of our other movies like Run, Hide, Fight.

00:44:09.000 Tons of good stuff.

00:44:09.000 If you're not a member, become a member.

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The Ben Shapiro Show - May 08, 2025

BACK TO WINNING: Trump Negotiates Tariff Deal With UK

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