Trump appears to have the lead going into the homestretch, and that means it has come the October surprise. We ll get to that in a second. First, your reminder, in 5 days, Am I Racist? streams exclusively at Daily Wire Plus on October 28th, but you need a DAILY WIRE PLUS membership to watch it. Join today at Dailywire Plus for 35% off your new membership. Do not miss out! Subscribe today using our podcast s promo code POWER10 for 10% off the entire price of your first month, and save 10% on your next month's premium rate plan. Use the discount code: POWER10 at checkout to receive $10 OFF your entire purchase when you sign up for the DAILY WEEK PLUS membership. If you don t already have a membership, you can get 20% off for the first month by becoming a member of DAILYWEEK Plus. You'll get access to all the latest news and notes, including the latest breaking election updates, every morning, every weekday morning, wherever you get your news and results come from the Daily Wire PLUS app. You can read all of that here. Thanks for listening and share the podcast with your friends! Timestamps: 5:00 - What's the October Surprise? 6:30 - What s the October Surprise? 7:15 - Is Donald Trump's Lead? 8:10 - Is Hillary going to win the White House in 2020? 9:20 - Is Kamala Harris a Good Thing? 11:00 | What's a Good Idea? 12:40 - Who's Winning? 13:00 15:30 16:40 17:00 Is She Better Than She's Better Than I'm Better Than That? 17, Is She Gonna Win The Other Thing? # 17? 18) 19:00 Or Is She Really Better Than This? 21:10 22) Is She Won It In The Other Place? #3? #3 #5? #5 Is She Will She Will I Have It Better Than You Think That I'm Gots Better? Or Will She Gotta Win It In My Opinion? #4 Or Is It Better? #6 Or Is That Gotta Have It In That Or Not? And So Much More? or Is She Kidding Me In This Or Not That? #7?
00:00:29.000We need to explain the state of the race because otherwise, the October surprise doesn't make a lot of sense.
00:00:33.000The state of the race is that Donald Trump appears to be ahead going into the homestretch.
00:00:37.000In fact, poll analyst reporter Mark Halperin yesterday said as much.
00:00:42.000He said that if the early voting numbers hold up the way they are right now, And if the same day voting, the day of voting, goes the way that it did in 2020, Donald Trump will have wrapped up this election before the election day even begins.
00:00:55.000Because basically, Democrats need to win it in the pregame or they're going to lose it day of.
00:00:59.000Here's Mark Halperin explaining just yesterday.
00:01:04.000Let's lead with the lead, as they say in journalism.
00:01:06.000If the early vote numbers stay the way they are, and that's a big if, we'll almost certainly know before election day who's going to win the election.
00:01:16.000The reasons why Democrats might be underperforming, the prospect that they'll recover.
00:01:21.000But again, make no mistake, if these numbers hold up, in the states where we can understand even partially what the data's like, we'll know that Donald Trump's going to be president on Election Day.
00:01:33.000And Halperin's not the only one saying this.
00:01:35.000The Washington Post reported yesterday dozens of states have opened in-person early voting locations.
00:02:21.000He's been reporting the early vote numbers showing a GOP lead and flashed a warning to Democrats late Monday evening out west.
00:02:27.000Ralston noted that since the rise of the political machine that late former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid built for Democrats, this has never happened.
00:02:33.000The Republicans have opened what amounts to an unprecedented in modern times lead in early voting over Democrats in Nevada.
00:02:40.000So Kamala Harris is running really, really weak in the early voting thus far.
00:02:44.000Now, again, it could be that that's cannibalizing the day of voting.
00:02:47.000It's possible that the people who are voting right now are people who would have voted Election Day normally.
00:02:51.000Or it's possible that Republicans have actually gotten smart.
00:02:55.000And many of the people who weren't going to show up on Election Day are now voting early just to get it done.
00:03:01.000By the way, if you are voting early, that is a good thing.
00:03:04.000Voting early is good because the party for which you are voting can see that you have voted.
00:03:09.000They don't have to waste campaign resources going to your door and door knocking you if they already know that you voted.
00:03:14.000A senior official working on Harris's campaign is already sounding the alarm about the Veep's narrowing electoral path.
00:03:19.000According to NBC News, three sources with knowledge of the campaign strategy say the campaign is worried the blue wall could at least in part go red this November.
00:03:27.000One senior campaign official OK, if they lose North Carolina and they lose, say, Michigan or Wisconsin, very difficult to see how the Democrats win the election because they would have to, at that point, peel off Georgia.
00:03:46.000And Georgia looks like it is moving steadily toward Donald Trump in this electoral cycle.
00:03:54.000They're pointing out that the time is ticking off the clock for Kamala Harris.
00:03:58.000Quote, Vice President Kamala Harris and former Wyoming Representative Liz Cheney descended on the crucial Milwaukee suburbs Monday night and sitting side by side delivered compelling political sermons.
00:04:07.000The problem was they were preaching to the converted.
00:04:09.000The event was explicitly aimed at moderates and one-time Republicans who remain up for grabs and may decide the election, but the rhetoric seemed better suited for those in the audience wearing Lincoln Project and Kamala t-shirts.
00:04:24.000And so it is now time to pull out all the stops.
00:04:27.000It's now time to pull out all the stops.
00:04:30.000So there are a couple of ways to do this.
00:04:32.000One would be for Kamala Harris to run a better campaign.
00:04:34.000That, of course, is very, very unlikely.
00:04:37.000Very unlikely she's going to run a better campaign because she's not a good candidate.
00:04:42.000Hilariously, there was an op-ed in The Hill two days ago wondering if perhaps Joe Biden was, after all, a better candidate than Kamala Harris.
00:04:48.000Which, of course, is what Joe Biden has been saying all along despite being dead.
00:04:51.000Kamala Harris, for her part, can't even answer simple questions as to whether Joe Biden is sentient and alive.
00:04:58.000She will not answer questions on the decline of the person she shoved off the back of the train and stole his nomination.
00:05:03.000Here she was in a clip from NBC News trying to explain Joe Biden's mental state.
00:05:21.000But the reason that you are at the top of the ticket is because he dropped out of this race.
00:05:24.000And so I want to ask you, and it was largely because of that debate performance back in June.
00:05:29.000You defended him in the days before and in the days after as you were campaigning for another four years for President Biden.
00:05:36.000Can you say that you were honest with the American people about what you saw in those moments with President Biden as you were with him again and again repeatedly in that time?
00:06:24.000And my presidency will be about bringing A new generation of leadership to America that is focused on the work that we need to do to invest in the ambitions and aspirations of the American people.
00:07:22.000It means that she will help Latino men and others start and grow small businesses with no interest loans or deferred loan repayments and fully forgivable loans up to $20,000.
00:08:10.000The more you throw at him, the more he just looks like Donald Trump because he is the most well-established political figure in the American mind in my lifetime and my parents' lifetime as well.
00:08:20.000There is no one in America who does not have an opinion about Donald Trump.
00:08:23.000Right now, the question is not for undecided voters what they think about Donald Trump.
00:08:27.000The question is what they think about Kamala Harris.
00:08:29.000Donald Trump's numbers have been incredibly steady for the entirety of this election cycle.
00:08:34.000If you look at the national polling, Donald Trump's national average polling has been between 46% and 48% the entirety of this entire race.
00:09:13.000There's a lot more variability for Kamala Harris.
00:09:15.000And this is why I say that Donald Trump appears to have the advantage in the race because any news that breaks is likely to change opinions about her, not about him.
00:09:22.000So Democrats are getting desperate and they're pulling out all the stops and they've gone back to the well.
00:09:28.000They've gone to their favorite Obama stenographer, a man with his head so far up Barack Obama's ass that he could actually spot polyps in Obama's colon without a colonoscopy, Jeffrey Goldberg.
00:09:38.000Jeffrey Goldberg is the editor of The Atlantic.
00:09:40.000The Atlantic is owned by the former wife of Steve Jobs.
00:09:46.000The Atlantic also happens to be a place that is trotted out Absolutely moral, morally repugnant human beings like Ta-Nehisi Coates and treated them as moral exemplars.
00:09:57.000The Atlantic, of course, and Goldberg in particular has trotted out lines about Donald Trump that have been unverified before.
00:10:04.000You'll recall that back in 2020, it was Jeffrey Goldberg who trotted out the suckers and losers line about Donald Trump.
00:10:11.000It was Jeffrey Goldberg who retailed the story that Donald Trump had gone to Normandy and then claimed that dead soldiers at Normandy Beach were suckers and losers.
00:10:19.000And everybody around Trump was like, he never said that.
00:10:21.000And Jeffrey Goldberg ran with it anyway.
00:10:23.000He had promised on cable news that he would provide some verification for the story.
00:10:26.000Well, now he's back and he is better than ever.
00:10:29.000There's a story at the Atlantic in which Donald Trump is cursing the family of a dead soldier of Latino descent For the great crime of having submitted a bill for him to pay for a funeral for this person.
00:10:44.000So I'm going to read you this story, and then you'll see how it's being treated by the media.
00:10:48.000Now, there is no evidence this story is true.
00:11:18.000Buy the Bill Gateses and George Soroses of the world if you come out today and levy this kind of accusation against Donald Trump to Jeffrey Goldberg.
00:11:25.000And Goldberg still couldn't find anybody to go on the record here.
00:11:28.000That's a pretty shady story here by Jeff Goldberg, but there are shadowy people everywhere.
00:11:32.000Shadowy data brokers, for example, make a living compiling detailed profiles of your online activity and selling them to marketers and other corporate interests.
00:11:38.000They want to control you with targeted ads.
00:11:40.000They're not selling a product, they're selling you.
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00:13:45.000So here is Jeffrey Goldberg's nonsense story.
00:13:48.000Quote, Shortly after her remains were discovered, President Trump himself invited the Guillen family to the White House.
00:14:16.000With Guillen's mother seated beside him, Trump spent 25 minutes with the family as television cameras recorded the scene.
00:14:21.000In the meeting, Trump maintained a dignified posture and expressed sympathy to Guillen's mother.
00:14:25.000Quote, I saw what happened to your daughter, Vanessa, who was a spectacular person and respected and loved by everybody, including in the military, Trump said.
00:14:31.000Later in the conversation, he made a promise.
00:14:32.000If I can help you out with the funeral, I'll help.
00:15:16.000Five months later, and here's where we get to the dicey part.
00:15:18.000Five months later, the Secretary of the Army, Ryan McCarthy, announced the results of an investigation.
00:15:22.000McCarthy cited numerous leadership failures at Fort Hood and relieved or suspended several officers, including the base's commanding general.
00:15:28.000In a press conference, McCarthy said the murder shocked our conscience and forced us to take a critical look at our systems, our policies, and ourselves.
00:15:35.000According to a person close to Trump at the time, the president was agitated by McCarthy's comments and raised questions about the severity of the punishments dispensed to senior officers and non-commissioned officers.
00:15:44.000In an Oval Office meeting on December 4, 2020, officials gathered to discuss a separate national security issue.
00:15:49.000Toward the end of the discussion, Trump asked for an update on the McCarthy investigation.
00:15:53.000Christopher Miller, the acting secretary of defense, was in attendance, along with Miller's chief of staff, Kash Patel.
00:16:00.000At a certain point, according to two people present at the meeting, Trump asked, did they bill us for the funeral?
00:16:27.000Kalam, according to Goldberg, the family attorney, told Goldberg she sent the bill to the White House that no money was ever received by the family from Trump.
00:16:33.000Some of the costs, Kalam said, were covered by the army.
00:16:43.000And this is all of a piece with Jeffrey Goldberg's take on Donald Trump, which is that Donald Trump has scorned for the American military.
00:16:50.000Now, this is a very, very weird accusation to make about Donald Trump, because the reality is that Donald Trump, with members of the military, is terrific.
00:16:57.000If you go and see him with members of the military, this dude likes members of our military.
00:17:05.000This is somebody who has gone out of his way to talk about strengthening the American military in a way that Democrats never would.
00:17:13.000And yet the attack on Trump is that somehow deep in his heart, not only does he hate the American military, this is like the intersectional apotheosis of accusations about Donald Trump.
00:17:21.000He hates the military, which means he's unpatriotic.
00:17:23.000And also he hates Mexicans who were murdered.
00:17:26.000He hates female Mexicans who were murdered, according to The Atlantic, according to Jeffrey Goldberg.
00:18:18.000Any suggestion President Trump disparaged Ms.
00:18:20.000Guillen or refused to pay for her funeral expenses is absolutely false.
00:18:23.000He was nothing but kind, gracious, and wanted to make sure the military and the U.S. government did right by Vanessa Guillen and her family.
00:18:33.000Ben Williamson, the spokesman for Mark Meadows, said, quote, These are the quotes that he sent to Jeffrey Goldberg.
00:18:51.000Look how Jeffrey Goldberg spun those quotes.
00:18:53.000So that is a flat denial by Ben Williamson, the spokesperson for Mark Meadows.
00:18:57.000Here is what Jeffrey Goldberg then wrote in the story, quote, He provided, this would be one of the aides, he provided statements from Patel and a spokesman for Meadows who denied having heard Trump make the statement.
00:19:40.000Hey, this is typical Jeff Goldberg shtick.
00:19:45.000Jeff Goldberg is a Democratic operative.
00:19:47.000He has always been a Democratic operative.
00:19:50.000He's always been a stenographer for the Democratic Party, and he's trotting this out in the closing days of the campaign to try and smear Trump as anti-Latino, to smear Trump as anti-military and unpatriotic.
00:20:18.000Because number one, I think trust in media is at an all-time low.
00:20:21.000Number two, I think that Trump has said so many things that have been perceived as outrageous for 10 years that this just throw it on the pile, especially an allegation that he said a thing.
00:20:32.000But here's CBS News doing its damnedest anyway.
00:20:36.000Two weeks from Election Day as the final battleground sprint is underway.
00:20:41.000Every hour matters for these candidates as they try to reach as many voters as possible in the key states that will decide this election.
00:20:48.000For Donald Trump, that meant speaking at a roundtable in Florida at his golf club courting the Latino vote.
00:20:54.000After that campaign stop, a new report that Trump, while president, used the F-word to describe a murdered Mexican-American soldier.
00:21:01.000That story is that Trump scoffed at the price of a funeral he offered to pay for Private Vanessa Guillen, something Trump's team tonight denies.
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00:24:55.000But John Kelly has not been relevant to the American political conversation for four years.
00:24:59.000The last time he was relevant is when they were trotting him out during the last election cycle to talk about how Donald Trump was a very bad man who was Hitlerian and dictatorial and fascistic and all the rest of this kind of stuff.
00:25:09.000John Kelly is, of course, the former chief of staff for Donald Trump.
00:25:13.000He was fired by Donald Trump, and he's basically spent every waking moment since then retailing how much he hates Donald Trump and how Donald Trump is a fascist.
00:25:21.000So, John Kelly did an interview with the New York Times in which he suggested that Trump was a far-right authoritarian and suggested also that Donald Trump had once made warm comments about Hitler having done some stuff.
00:25:36.000So that Jeffrey Goldberg story in The Atlantic mentions some of the same stuff.
00:25:39.000Jeffrey Goldberg, again, reported, quote, former generals who have worked for Trump say the sole military virtue he prizes is obedience.
00:25:46.000As his presidency drew to a close, and in the years since, he has become more and more interested in the advantages of dictatorship and the absolute control over the military he believes it would deliver.
00:25:54.000Quote, I need the kind of generals that Hitler had.
00:25:56.000Trump said in a private conversation in the White House, according to two people who heard him say this, people who are totally loyal to him that follow orders.
00:26:03.000And John Kelly then backs those sorts of narratives that Trump once suggested that he wants generals like Hitler had.
00:26:09.000Or that he once said that Hitler had done some good things like build the Autobahn.
00:26:33.000Because let me just get this straight.
00:26:35.000The most pro-Israel president in American history, a man I visited, the Rebbe's Ohel with, a person who read from the book of Tehillim, from the book of Psalms, over the grave of Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson, This person is the anti-Semite?
00:26:49.000The one who met with a hostage family, an American-Israeli hostage held by Hamas in Gaza.
00:26:58.000So your implication is that because one time he said in a private conversation with John Kelly that Hitler revitalized the German economy, that's actually John Kelly's accusation, that because of that, That somehow is evidence of what?
00:27:13.000Other than historical ignorance, what is that evidence of precisely?
00:27:17.000That's evidence that he is secretly a Nazi?
00:27:34.000And it particularly doesn't wash coming from a Democratic Party and media who have been so overtly warm toward the fascistic excesses of the current administration.
00:27:42.000Let me give you two examples from yesterday alone.
00:27:46.000So yesterday, Joe Biden was out campaigning.
00:27:50.000I know he's been deceased for a while, but the dead vote Democrat.
00:27:53.000And Joe Biden was out there campaigning.
00:27:55.000And he just said the fascistic part out loud.
00:27:57.000He said, someone needs to lock Donald Trump up.
00:28:13.000In fact, his DOJ never even investigated Hillary Clinton.
00:28:16.000However, Joe Biden has activated his DOJ to investigate Donald Trump for everything up to and including improperly washing his underwear.
00:28:25.000The DOJ has been activated on every front to go after the political opponents of this administration, from Elon Musk to Donald Trump, And here was the man who is in charge of the DOJ saying that Donald Trump must be locked up two weeks before an election.
00:28:40.000But don't worry, Trump one time said something about Hitler.
00:28:42.000But really, we should just ignore this.
00:28:44.000We should just ignore that the sitting president of the United States, who was a candidate until five minutes ago when they decided to swap out his still-moldering corpse for Kamala Harris, that that person is saying out loud that the person who's currently leading in the polling and is likely to be the next president of the United States Needs to be put in jail.
00:29:03.000But don't worry, Trump is the fascistic threat to American democracy.
00:30:18.000Is that something that you would consider?
00:30:19.000I don't think we should be making concessions when we're talking about a fundamental freedom to make decisions about your own body.
00:30:25.000To Republicans like, for example, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, who would back something like this on a Democratic agenda if, in fact, Republicans control Congress, would you offer them an olive branch?
00:31:23.000As a religious person, it seems a little scary that the person who wants to be president of the United States says that if you are a Catholic charity hospital, you must perform abortions.
00:31:38.000She has served under an administration that has expanded executive power and attempted to use it in defiance of the Supreme Court in extraordinary ways.
00:31:46.000She pledges to do the same if she becomes President of the United States.
00:31:49.000And I'm supposed to worry that Donald Trump once made dumb historical references to John Kelly?
00:31:53.000That's what I'm supposed to worry about?
00:33:16.000When you look at the danger he put our country in, potentially with Russia, with a phony made-up deal that he made up with Hillary and some bad people, that started off as an excuse for why she lost an election that a lot of people thought, She should have won, because the polls indicated she might win, and then she got beaten everywhere, virtually.
00:33:37.000When you look at that, and then they said, ah, it was Russia.
00:33:58.000There are actually, by the way, enemies within.
00:33:59.000For example, an enemy of the United States within would be whoever in the Defense Department decided to leak Israel's war plans on Iran to Iran.
00:34:08.000That person should be arrested forthwith.
00:34:10.000The FBI is currently doing an investigation.
00:34:11.000When I talk about the enemy within, there are, in fact, people in the government who are enemies of the United States inside the U.S. government.
00:34:16.000Those people need to be ferreted out and prosecuted under criminal law.
00:34:30.000Okay, but it's the reaction I want to point out here.
00:34:33.000So members of the left-wing media, members of the Democratic Party, who are perfectly fine with demonizing everybody on the right for my entire lifetime, are very upset that Donald Trump would say anything remotely like this.
00:34:43.000So Jon Stewart, who has made an entire living By sneering, like just making faces at people he disagrees with and treating them as forms of a lower humanity.
00:34:54.000He's very upset that Donald Trump would talk about the enemies within.
00:34:57.000By the way, this is during the same presidency where Joe Biden went in front of a blood-red independence hall and called ultra-maga Republicans a threat to the Republic.
00:35:35.000How are we supposed to understand what's bullshit and what isn't?
00:35:39.000Kamala Harris, she's got to have an 80-page presentation on exactly how this opportunity economy is going to function and how it's going to be paid for.
00:35:46.000Meanwhile, the standard for Trump is emotional vicinity.
00:35:51.000Apparently, it doesn't actually matter if the things he says are true.
00:35:54.000And if you try and dig down on the lies, he only gets lie-ear.
00:36:00.000Okay, so, Jon Stewart being frustrated by the fact that people take Trump seriously but not literally, which has been true his entire political career.
00:36:16.000Okay, that seems like declaring him an enemy within.
00:36:19.000I mean, the entire Democratic Party has done that to Trump since he decided to step down the golden escalator in 2015.
00:36:26.000Jim Acosta did the same thing on CNN. And all the same people who retailed Russiagate, suggesting that Donald Trump was in fact a tool of the Russian government, which is to say, definitionally, an enemy within, are very, very upset that Donald Trump would say anything like that about the people who labeled him that.
00:36:42.000So I'm asking you, if Donald Trump orders people inside this country, citizens like Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi, to be arrested, you're saying, I think I just heard you a few moments ago saying you would not go along with that.
00:36:57.000So why not denounce what the former president is saying when he calls them the enemy from within?
00:37:05.000Jim, first of all, let's be very clear.
00:37:08.000Donald, Matt, are you going to let me answer your question?
00:37:21.000When he was president of the United States, did he order the National Guard or Secret Service or the U.S. military to go after his quote unquote rivals?
00:39:11.000Go to coin.com slash disclosures for full details.
00:39:15.000Again, that's C-O-I-G-N dot com to get started today.
00:39:21.000Do you have out in front of your house, like a rusting old vehicle, or a car that's just kind of broken down, and you know you need to get rid of it, but you haven't really done it yet?
00:39:27.000Do you want to deal with the hassle of selling it?
00:40:47.000Story number two is that they're dragging out John Kelly yet again for another round of Trump is Hitler.
00:40:52.000And then they're saying, look, Trump's going to target his enemies from within.
00:40:54.000Okay, the entire Democratic Party right now is providing cover for pro-Hamas protesters across the country.
00:41:01.000The entire Democratic Party is currently threatening Israel with an arms cutoff in the middle of a war against the Nazis of today, Hamas and Hezbollah and the Iranian regime.
00:41:10.000And I'm supposed to believe that Donald Trump is the Hitlerian threat to the...
00:41:13.000Joe Biden yesterday said that he wants to arrest Donald Trump.
00:41:17.000And he has already sticked his DOJ on Donald Trump.
00:41:20.000And I'm supposed to believe that Trump is the fascistic authoritarian threat to the United States.
00:41:27.000Then they tried out Barack Obama, who himself radically expanded executive power and destroyed whatever political comedy we had in the country.
00:41:34.000Barack Obama was a historically dangerous president.
00:41:38.000Look at the polls of Americans' beliefs about race in the United States and racial comedy in the United States.
00:41:43.000This man did more than any other man of my lifetime to wreck the body politic in this country.
00:41:49.000And yesterday, he was campaigning for Vice President Harris, and he's asking crocodile tears streaming down his cheeks how we got so toxic and bitter.
00:43:04.000On his opponents, quote, they get bitter.
00:43:05.000They cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiments or anti-trade sentiments as a way to explain their frustration.
00:43:14.000He declares the members of the Tea Party...
00:43:16.000The most polite protest group in American history.
00:43:19.000People got together and held events talking about cutting government spending.
00:43:23.000He called them teabaggers, which is a vulgar slang for people who perform particular sexual activities.
00:43:31.0002010, talking about the GOP taking back the House of Representatives.
00:43:35.000Quote, if they're successful in doing that, they've already said they're going to go back to the same policies that were in place during the Bush administration.
00:43:40.000We are going to have hand-to-hand combat up here on Capitol Hill.
00:43:46.0002014, he said racism was deeply rooted in American society.
00:44:06.000And pretending these people have any credibility to talk about bringing the country together is an absurdity at the highest level.
00:44:13.000Now, by the way, speaking of bringing people together around lies, so yesterday at this Kamala Harris rally, Barack Obama shows up, it's in Detroit, and they bring forth Slim Shady, Eminem, Marshall Mathers.
00:45:30.000Or, maybe, you know, there is, I take seven kids from Columbine, stand them all in a line, add an AK-47, a revolver, a 9, a Mac-11, and it ought to solve the problem of mine.
00:45:39.000And that's a whole school of bully shit all at one time.
00:46:08.000By the way, if he had introduced Trump, you know what I'm saying would be front page news across the country.
00:46:11.000But this went completely without comment by the media.
00:46:13.000Here was the real Slim Shady doing his routine.
00:46:16.000He's now turned into a rich suburban white man endorsing Kamala Harris.
00:46:20.000He's turned into a white dude for Harris.
00:46:23.000As most of you know, the city of Detroit and the whole state of Michigan mean a lot to me.
00:46:33.000And going into this election, the spotlight is on us more than ever, and I think it's important to use your voice, so I'm encouraging everybody to get out and vote, please.
00:46:47.000I also think that people shouldn't be afraid to express their opinions, and I don't think anyone wants an America where people are worried about retribution or what people will do if you make your opinion known.
00:47:02.000I think Vice President Harris supports a future for this country where these freedoms and many others will be protected and upheld.
00:47:13.000And here to tell you much more about that, President Barack Obama.
00:48:47.000I don't think it's going to make one bit of difference.
00:48:49.000Because once again, Donald Trump has been hit with everything, including bullets.
00:48:52.000I do not think that barring some cataclysmic scandal the likes of which we have not heard over the course of the last 10 years, and that's a very small category, anything is changing the trajectory of this race for Democrats.
00:50:49.000Here is Jon Stewart getting Tim Walls, the vice presidential candidate, to admit that they hate Liz Cheney and they are simply using her as a cutout.
00:50:55.000They will never listen to anything she has to say.
00:50:57.000Here's Jon Stewart making Tim Walls say the quiet part out loud.
00:51:50.000They will implement it no matter what.
00:51:52.000They will smother it in a crust of lies.
00:51:55.000They will pretend that the Republican Party is the authoritarian party while simultaneously trotting out their now deceased president to claim that he's going to jail his political opponents after having activated his own DOJ to do so.
00:52:07.000Kamala Harris will be out there explaining that that dude is perfectly sane and not senile at all.
00:52:12.000And also, she is going to unleash Basically, racial bribery in the election while simultaneously suggesting that religious freedom is not a core function of the Constitution.
00:52:53.000So I'm going to ask you the obvious question up front.
00:52:55.000What's the state of the race right now?
00:52:57.000We're hearing that Trump has momentum.
00:53:00.000We saw people like Mark Halperin saying that if he can read the early voting sort of chicken entrails, then it looks like Republicans are doing really well.
00:53:06.000Looking at the state of the race right now, just hard and fast, who do you think is winning and why?
00:53:13.000It's really close, and I would give Donald Trump an edge.
00:53:16.000And there's a couple reasons for that.
00:53:18.000One, Kamala Harris has insane amounts of money.
00:53:21.000And when you think about who is yet to be decided in this race, it's lower information individuals.
00:53:26.000They tend to be younger, less educated, and they just haven't tuned into this race.
00:53:30.000And so to cut through, you've got to spend incredible amounts of money.
00:53:34.000It's why both candidates are doing these huge pushes on all kinds of non-traditional media right now.
00:53:40.000Secondly, if you look at the map, the reason I give Donald Trump an edge is he's going to win Arizona.
00:53:49.000So it puts those Sunbelt states out of play, which means she has to run the full sweep of the Rust Belt, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
00:53:57.000And right now I would say she has a slight edge in Pennsylvania.
00:53:59.000It's just a really challenging, expensive state.
00:54:02.000And if you're looking at where can Trump pull out that final state, right now it looks like Michigan.
00:54:09.000So, you know, looking at sort of the state of the race, it's very difficult to read these polls.
00:54:14.000You know, I'm reading the poll averages, same as everybody else, from Nate Silver or FiveThirtyEight or RealClearPolitics, and the poll averages are even different depending on which polls are included and which polls are not included.
00:54:23.000One of the big questions that I have in reading these polls is the polls were pretty bad in 2020 on a state level.
00:54:28.000On a national level, they were off significantly, but on the state level, they were really off pretty significantly because Joe Biden had major leads in many of these states.
00:54:34.000He ended up winning by bare tens of thousands of votes in some of these states.
00:54:38.000So how much have pollsters adjusted their modeling and how do we know how they've adjusted their modeling?
00:54:44.000When you're looking at a likely voter screen, it's always very difficult to tell how that's constructed and also whether that's going to be accurate or not because Trump brings out such a strange coalition.
00:54:52.000A huge number of low propensity voters show up for Donald Trump that don't show up in sort of a traditional election cycle.
00:54:57.000So when you're creating that likely voter screen to determine...
00:55:00.000What the actual outcome of a poll looks like?
00:55:02.000Does it look like 2022, 2020, which was also an outlier election, 2016?
00:55:07.000What kind of adjustments have been made?
00:55:08.000How much is it taking into account the weirdness of an election in which Trump is involved?
00:55:13.000Well, you first have to ask yourself, why would somebody pay for a poll?
00:55:43.000Specifically, what's the educational attainment breakdown?
00:55:46.000Because if you go back 10 years ago, educational attainment really didn't matter as an indicator of partisanship, and now it's become one of the most important aspects of predictiveness of partisanship.
00:55:57.000And so if it's often any of those factors, sometimes I won't even go to the rest of the poll.
00:56:02.000I won't scroll back to the top because I won't care what the presidential race is or the Senate race is because the polls just constructed wrong.
00:56:08.000It's constructed in a way that doesn't look like any past election.
00:56:11.000And this can happen for a couple different reasons.
00:56:14.000You've got, you know, older people and more educated people are more likely to answer surveys.
00:56:19.000And the Trump coalition that you're talking about is not older and is not more educated.
00:56:25.000And so that is how some of these misses has happened in the past.
00:56:28.000I really do think that the shy Trump voter is less and less a factor.
00:56:31.000I mean, this is the third time the guy is on the ballot.
00:56:33.000And if you look at his ballot share in each of these states, not just the margin at which he's at, it's the highest he's ever been in pretty much every state that he's polling in and including nationally.
00:56:43.000And I think part of that is the corrections that have been made.
00:56:49.000I mean, I live in Arlington, Virginia, which is basically a communist compound, and you would be shocked at how many Trump signs are up in Arlington, Virginia right now.
00:57:03.000So let's talk about the Trump coalition.
00:57:05.000There's been a lot of talk about it being multiracial, about it being more working class.
00:57:08.000There's also been some talk, Harry Enten on CNN, recently suggesting that actually he's underperforming what he did in past elections with working class white men, for example, which seems strange to me that he would be underperforming when Kamala Harris is on the other side of the ballot, when she obviously, from the way her campaign is approaching things, is she seeing internals that suggest that that may be untrue?
00:57:27.000Because They're making a heavy effort to draw out black men.
00:57:31.000They're trying to send out Tim Walls as a bizarre surrogate for working class white men.
00:57:36.000What do you make of the reports that he's lagging in particular sectors where he's done better before?
00:57:41.000Well, right before this interview, I went back and looked at the 2016 exit polls, 2020, and then I compared that to our most recent national poll.
00:57:48.000And if you look at white voters in 2016, they voted 20 points more for Donald Trump And that was 17 points more for Donald Trump in 20.
00:57:57.000And right now we only have it at four points more for Donald Trump.
00:58:00.000And so I think that's more a factor of that segment of voters being more undecided because exit polls don't have an undecided option.
00:58:08.000You either walked in a voter for one or the other, or maybe a third party candidate.
00:58:11.000And so that's the best way to read that right now.
00:58:14.000But if they're looking at the same polls that we have access to, they are seeing that there is opportunity in white working class voters I don't know why they're going after white working class men, because the gender gap is back and the gender gap actually looks a whole lot more like 2016.
00:58:30.000The men as a whole just didn't perform as well for Trump in 2020.
00:58:34.000And so as we look at that gender aspect, it's actually looking more like 2016, which is positive for Trump.
00:58:40.000But if you go back to the 2016 exit poll, black voters 8% for Trump, 2020 12% for Trump.
00:58:46.000Our poll currently has him at 20% with black voters.
00:58:50.000So, I mean, just this massive increase in appeal to non-white voters.
00:58:56.000I saw a chart the other day that showed ideology, conservative, moderate, liberal, and, you know, white Republicans have kind of stayed conservative.
00:59:04.000Hispanics and blacks have stayed moderate.
00:59:06.000And white Democrats have just fallen off into this, you know, this leftist liberal pool.
00:59:12.000And so they don't look anything like Democrats of 20 years ago.
00:59:15.000And white and Hispanic voters are looking at those folks saying, why did you go insane?
00:59:24.000And they're starting to consider the Republican Party that, of course, is more conservative than them, but at least it's not wacky leftists.
00:59:31.000Yeah, this is part of the thing I think about Trump that people have completely ignored is that his excesses are rhetorical.
00:59:37.000His policies are more moderate than any Republican candidate of my lifetime.
00:59:40.000If you actually look at what he's done with the Republican platform on say abortion or completely ignoring same-sex marriage or a wide variety of issues that used to be sort of the key litmus test of conservatism in the country.
00:59:51.000He's put those things all the way off to the side.
00:59:53.000I mean, this is a person who campaigned in 2016 saying he's not going to touch Medicare or Social Security and then won.
00:59:57.000And so he's taken a bunch of what would have been sort of the hard, right, rock, red Republican issues and just dispensed with them.
01:00:03.000And so he actually has occupied the middle of the political spectrum positionally, which is one of the reasons why I think he's outperforming.
01:00:11.000Democrats, I think, they read him as a radical while ignoring the fact that politically the dude is the most...
01:00:25.000And I think it's also causing a little bit of a problem in the religious community.
01:00:30.000I don't know if you saw the ASU survey that George Barna put out of how many tens of millions of evangelical Christians are going to sit this election out.
01:00:39.000And you go back and look at 2016, what did Trump do?
01:00:42.000Well, he I'm going to appoint very conservative Supreme Court justices and here are their names.
01:00:48.000And it was that inflection point in the campaign where conservative voters started to consider, OK, well, this, you know, this guy, this moderate from New York, I might be willing to support him if this is the type of people he's going to appoint for the Supreme Court.
01:01:03.000So I think it's an issue that in this next two weeks in the final stretch of the campaign, the Trump campaign could benefit from Figuring something out that they can hang and say, look, this religious right, this is what we're going to do for the next four years for you.
01:01:16.000Because I think the religious right just hasn't heard anything from them because, as you mentioned, a lot of these policies are centrist, which is pulling voters in.
01:01:24.000And I think it's one of the missing parts of this campaign cycle is that each side is saying, look at this new type of voter we're getting.
01:01:31.000The Dems are saying we have Liz Cheney and the neocon Republicans coming over.
01:01:35.000And Republicans are saying, look, we have black and Hispanic men coming over, but nobody wants to talk about who left their coalition.
01:01:42.000And I think when you look at the religious right, it actually is an area that they're saying, what do we get out of this coalition?
01:01:52.000So let's talk for a second about the ground game.
01:01:54.000There's been a lot of talk about the ground game variation between the Republicans and the Democrats.
01:01:58.000It's obviously been a major concern of mine.
01:02:00.000I'm hearing very conflicting opinions on exactly how good is the Republican ground operation.
01:02:05.000They've outsourced it to outside groups, whether it's Elon Musk, whether it's Turning Point USA. The Democrats, of course, are pretty famous for having a very, very solid ground operation.
01:02:12.000What do you make of concerns about the ground game?
01:02:14.000How much does ground game matter in an election like this?
01:02:18.000Well, ground game is just another touch.
01:02:21.000And when you think about these lower propensity voters, they just need a whole lot more touches.
01:02:25.000And so knocking on their door a few times is helpful.
01:02:28.000But I will say that when you think about ground game, the reason the Democrats have been so successful is because it's not something that they say, oh, guess what?
01:02:42.000And I'm very appreciative for what these outside groups are doing to help Donald Trump.
01:02:47.000But we as a Republican Party have got to figure out what is that ecosystem that we can build Within communities, not just pay people 30 bucks an hour to go knock on doors.
01:02:59.000I think it's helpful when we're doing tracking studies every single day in a couple of key states right now.
01:03:04.000And you can see when and where the other side puts people on the doors because it starts to show up in what's called the seeing red herd flow.
01:03:11.000Where have you seen red or heard anything about this campaign or candidate?
01:03:15.000And we don't necessarily see those same spikes on The Republican side.
01:03:20.000And I think it's just because it's newer.
01:03:22.000It's a much smaller audience of who is getting their door knocked.
01:03:25.000I mean, if you ask people, have you ever been polled?
01:03:28.000I would guess that number is even smaller than the number of people who say that their door has ever been knocked.
01:03:38.000You know, we're looking forward now a couple of weeks.
01:03:40.000I know that I can't ask you about unknown unknowns because who the hell knows what's going to drop.
01:03:43.000One of the things I find it difficult to believe is that there's going to be any story that drops about Donald Trump, barring, you know, he had sex with a horse or something, that radically changes the nature of this race going forward on the Trump side of the equation.
01:03:54.000I know there have been a couple of oppo dumps on him, the suggestion that he made disparaging remarks about a A dead Latino soldier, which, again, is unverified.
01:04:02.000Jeffrey Goldberg is trotting that one out today.
01:04:04.000John Kelly has been brought back, resurrected, to make accusations about Donald Trump liking Hitler, which I find personally strange since, once again, I visited the grave of Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson with Donald Trump two weeks ago, and he didn't seem super Hitlerian at the time.
01:04:19.000I feel like I would have noticed the mustache.
01:04:21.000So, given the fact that Trump has been absolutely stable in these polls, I mean, this is the point that I've been making this entire election cycle, This election is really not about Donald Trump.
01:04:31.000Donald Trump has polled consistently between 45 and 48 percent in pretty much every poll.
01:04:36.000He's polling better now than he ever has in the past.
01:04:38.000He's up in the 48, 49, 50 percent range in virtually every national poll.
01:04:42.000What do you think could change in the next two weeks?
01:04:44.000And if you had to hazard a guess, do you think that it benefits Trump or do you think that it benefits Harris?
01:04:50.000Well, you have to understand why would they do something like that?
01:04:54.000I want to lay out that I no longer believe elections are about persuasion.
01:04:58.000I think they're only about persuasion to turn out.
01:05:00.000If you think about what they're drawing out here in terms of who is this going to turn out, that is the lens in which you've got to understand why they would bring these things up.
01:05:12.000Some of the things that Donald Trump has said is the exact reason that he is appealing to men of color right now.
01:05:19.000They actually risk Turning out more men of color by bringing out things that might sound ridiculous or outrageous to a certain segment of the voters that already hate Donald Trump, it might actually backfire on them and make some of these non-white men go, that dude's actually pretty cool, and come out.
01:05:36.000And I know that sounds completely ridiculous, but that is how elections are run now, is you do and say things and advertise All for the purpose of getting a segment of the voters to look up, pay attention, and show up to vote, not because they worked for Kamala and now they're going to vote for Donald Trump.
01:07:16.000The danger for the country, obviously, if Harris wins, I think people, they feel it.
01:07:21.000And this sort of fake joy that was supposed to be infusing all of us the moment that Joe Biden was summarily executed and thrown off the back of the political bus.
01:08:23.000He's every bad person we can think of, except for Mao, because we kind of like Mao.
01:08:28.000I mean, it's incredible how they have taken this and used the press.
01:08:36.000It's never been more clear that it is a propaganda arm of, I would say, the Democratic Party, but more importantly now, the government.
01:08:46.000It is an arm of the government of the United States of America.
01:08:51.000Glenn, you can see this in action actually just today.
01:08:55.000Obviously, The Atlantic, using Jeffrey Goldberg, who of course is a stenographer for the Democratic Party, puts out this crazy story that is completely unverified by any actual source about Donald Trump apparently cursing the memory and the family of a slain Woman of Latino origin who is an American soldier.
01:09:12.000And Trump, by the testimony of the family, was always great to them, very nice to them.
01:09:16.000Everybody who's in the room denies that this is actually what happened.
01:09:46.000And I was just talking to former Prime Minister Liz Truss today because we were talking about the collusion now between the Labour Party and the UK government and our government with Harris campaign and the Biden White House of trying to literally kill Elon Musk's Twitter.
01:10:09.000Also, the the collusion on strategizing the campaigns and things.
01:10:16.000This is this is a major problem now where our governments and like minded socialist leaders and globalist leaders are all working together and leaving their people behind.
01:10:33.000We all have these borders that are being overrun and our governments are treating anyone who says, hey, this isn't what I voted for.
01:10:41.000This doesn't seem good for my country.
01:10:44.000The politicians treat them as second class citizens that need to be shut up.
01:10:50.000And the media calls it all far right extremists that are saying that.
01:10:55.000That's what's happening in the entire West.
01:10:57.000This is not about Republicans or Democrats.
01:11:00.000This is about a global effort by big business, big politicians, the governments, and the media all over the Western world colluding to fundamentally change the West into a place where we become serfs.
01:11:24.000Glenn, I think that's totally right, especially when you say it feels like it's coming to an end.
01:11:27.000You can feel that it's coming to an end because the disconnect between the sort of distraction tactics, the shiny objects that the propaganda machine would love for you to pay attention to, and the actual quality of daily life has become too broad for people to take.
01:11:39.000It's that gap that has emerged that has made people unable to ingest the propaganda anymore.
01:11:44.000When things are going basically okay, Okay, then whatever narrative you're throwing out there, maybe that's my concern of the day, but it turns out that when bad things are happening in the country and you can feel them in your life, then whatever stupid thing you're saying Donald Trump said today, it does not matter to me.
01:12:58.000But people will put up with these usurptations, these problems, the loss of freedom and the things they don't like until they just are not bearable any longer.
01:13:10.000We don't want to have conflict as people.
01:13:15.000But there comes a time when you realize this is going to destroy the life that I know if I don't stand up, and we're at that point right now.
01:13:25.000But the media and the governments, the Democratic Party, are trying to gaslight you to make you feel like you're crazy.
01:13:34.000The good news is, while they've tried to separate us from talking to one another, it's not like it was during COVID. COVID changed things for the worse, and then later...
01:13:45.000Actually changed it, I think, for the better.
01:13:47.000People started talking and going, you know, this doesn't make any sense.
01:13:50.000Now that we're talking, the propaganda machine has got to silence the voices.
01:13:57.000And that's why Der Spiegel, when they said last weekend that Elon Musk is target number one, or sorry, target number two, Donald Trump is target number one, he's absolutely right.
01:14:10.000He is one of the last people that can actually stand at the gate and keep that gate of free exchange and ideas open.
01:14:21.000If he's gone, you know, what happens, Ben?
01:14:27.000One of the things that we talk about in...
01:14:32.000I was going to say, when it comes to Elon, one of the things that you can see in terms of the propaganda war against him is just the way that the media swivel on people the minute that they express politics that are unpopular.
01:14:41.000So for a while, Elon was the toast of the town because, of course, Elon is doing amazing things like starting a giant electric car company and launching things into space and all this kind of stuff.
01:14:50.000And now it's like they're running pieces about the white supremacy inherent in rocket launches because they have to do whatever they can to stop him because he has now crossed the propaganda machine.
01:15:01.000And it's bizarre to believe and to see how many people buy into that on the left.
01:15:09.000There is true mental illness in this country.
01:15:15.000They have been so frightened, terrified, whatever, that they are no longer seeing logic.
01:16:17.000And they have thrown chaos into these elections.
01:16:22.000And we talk about it and all All of the ramifications of deepfakes and everything that the government is doing in conjunction with some of the really evil players in the world in propaganda wars.
01:16:38.000And I urge you to tell your listeners and tell everybody you know, don't believe anything even if it comes out for your side in the last two days.
01:16:52.000Because you won't have any time to verify.
01:16:55.000And even if it comes out for Donald Trump against Harris, don't believe it.