We examine the brand new economic report, Democrats say Americans are the problem, so vote Democrat, and President Trump clings to his story about Hurricane Dorian, and plays with Sharpies. We also get to President Trump's bizarre fixation with how correct he was about the storm path of a storm that didn't go where he said it was going to go, and why he doesn't let those sorts of things go. Today's episode is a mashup of economics, politics, and the latest in the Trump administration's bizarre obsession with the storm that did not go as he predicted it would. It's another episode of The Ben Shapiro Show, hosted by Ben Shapiro. Subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts and leave us a rating and review of the show. Use the promo code: CRIMINALS at checkout to get 10% off your first purchase when you enter the site. Thanks to our sponsor, Caff Monster Energy. Caff is a high-octane blend of natural gas, COFFEE, and maple syrup. Enjoy the show and tweet me if you like it! with and Ben Shapiro to let me know what you think! and Ben Shapiro will be back with more episodes like this one in the future! Timestamps: 0:00:00 - What's the worst thing you ve ever heard of a President Trump tweet me? 6:30 - What do you like about a hurricane? 7: 8:15 - Is the economy on the best thing I ve ever? 9:40 - What are you on the brink of a recession? 11:15: What s your favorite part of the economic cycle? 16:20 - Is it on the verge of a slow downturn? 17:00 | What s going to happen next? 18:30 | Is a recession coming in 2020? 19:10 - What s a recession on the horizon? 21:00 22:40 | Is it a recession a good thing? 26:00 -- Is it possible? 27:30 -- What s the worst case scenario? 29: Is it going to be a good one? 30:40 -- Is the worst? 31:30 32:40 33:00 +3:00 & 33:10 36:00 // 33:15 35:00 Is the economic downturn coming soon?
00:00:11.000All righty, we have a lot to get to today.
00:00:18.000There is a new study out about the collapse of marriage, and it suggests that economics has something to do with that.
00:00:24.000I think economics does have something to do with it, but I think the problem goes a lot deeper.
00:00:27.000We'll get to that a little bit later on in the show.
00:00:29.000We will also be getting to President Trump's bizarre fixation with how correct he was about the storm path of a storm that didn't go anywhere remotely near where he said it was going to go.
00:00:42.000Well, because the president doesn't let those sorts of things go.
00:00:44.000We'll get to all that in just one second.
00:00:46.000First, we begin with the August jobs report.
00:00:48.000So according to the New York Times, the United States added 130,000 jobs in August.
00:00:52.000The unemployment rate remains at 3.7%, meaning that the economy remains strong.
00:00:57.000The figures show that the economy continues to add jobs despite the trade war and a global showdown.
00:01:01.000What we are seeing is a trend line that looks like it is headed down since the beginning of 2019 in terms of job growth.
00:01:07.000We've had a couple of very bad months.
00:01:08.000We had February, which is a very bad month, and then we had a couple of months later, looks like May was a very bad month.
00:01:14.000We've had some okay months mixed in, but overall, it looks as though the economy is slowing.
00:01:20.000Now, it doesn't mean recession is around the corner.
00:01:22.000It does mean That the economy is going to be slower, it looks like, headed into 2020, which of course is not great news for President Trump.
00:01:28.000According to the New York Times, the American economy turned in a decent performance last month as businesses grew more cautious about hiring, according to the Labor Department's monthly employment report released on Friday.
00:01:38.000About 25,000 of the jobs added were temporary position for the 2020 census.
00:01:42.000When you remove those jobs, then the job growth looks even slower.
00:01:46.000Now, does this mean we are in economic spiral?
00:01:50.000No, it means that a lot of people have a lot of trepidation about the future of the economy and they're not doing a lot of long term hiring right now in the expectation that sometime in 2020, 2021, we may see an economic downturn.
00:02:00.000And that's not a surprise because we've been seeing those indicators systemically coming from China, coming from Europe.
00:02:05.000For several months at this point, along with consumer spending, the labor market has been a source of stability for the economy, even as several gauges have turned downward and trade anxieties have mounted.
00:02:14.000But in August, the private sector added 96,000 jobs, weaker than the pace so far in 2019, and an indication that businesses are becoming a little more reluctant to add headcount.
00:02:22.000The report also revised down job gains for June and July by a total of 20,000, which, you know, going back and having to revise down numbers is never great.
00:02:33.000He said the headline number in August was flattered by the big increase in census hiring.
00:02:37.000He says even allowing for that, there's been a clear slowdown in trend employment growth, with the three-month and six-month averages both at around 150,000 now, down from about 230,000 a year ago.
00:02:48.000But there were positive signs elsewhere in the report.
00:02:50.000The labor force participation rate did rise to 63.2% from 63%, suggesting that workers who had been on the sidelines are gradually being lured back into the labor market.
00:02:59.000And average hourly earnings did increase by 0.4%, which is actually more than analysts had expected, which suggests, again, when you have wage increases, that suggests that the demand for labor is exceeding the supply for labor by 0.4% in terms of wages.
00:03:13.000The length of the average work week also increased after falling in July.
00:03:18.000So there's some mixed numbers right now.
00:03:21.000It looks like the economy is sort of on the brink of something, right?
00:03:24.000It could be on the brink of another slow growth cycle.
00:03:27.000It could be on the brink of a slow downturn.
00:03:29.000It could be on the brink of a recession over the course of the next couple of years.
00:03:32.000Businesses don't know, and so they're holding back their money.
00:03:35.000A good piece of news for President Trump.
00:03:37.000That economic report is not bad for Trump.
00:03:42.000A good piece of news for President Trump is that the markets were up pretty significantly yesterday.
00:03:47.000According to the New York Times, President Trump's decision to renew talks with China in the coming weeks sent financial markets soaring on Thursday As investors seized on the development as a sign that both sides could still find a way out of an economically damaging trade war.
00:03:58.000The rally sent the S&P 500 up more than 1%, underscoring just how much financial markets are subsisting on hopes and fears about the trade war.
00:04:06.000Shares fell through most of August as Mr. Trump escalated his fight with China and imposed more tariffs only to snap back on Thursday after news of the talks.
00:04:13.000But expectations for progress remain low.
00:04:15.000Many in the US and China see the best outcome as a continued stalemate that would prevent a collapse in relations.
00:04:23.000And that is probably the most likely outcome because the fact is that the United States is not going to cut a long-term trade deal with China, not under the current conditions in which China is a serious geopolitical enemy of the United States.
00:04:34.000And characterizing China this way is not a partisan affair.
00:04:38.000The left in the United States is similarly beginning to recognize that China is a geopolitical threat to the United States and that harsh action is necessary.
00:04:46.000Nicholas Kristof, who is a very left-leaning columnist for the New York Times, has a piece today talking about how China is ramping up its military presence around Taiwan, about how they've escalated their cyber attacks on Taiwan, about how China is becoming more militant.
00:05:02.000I mean, he even acknowledges that President Trump's policies on Taiwan are better than his predecessors.
00:05:08.000I mean, this is Nicholas Kristof, who is no friend of Trump.
00:05:10.000He says President Trump has generally been more supportive of Taiwan than his predecessors, and that's worked well so far, but this has to be done very carefully.
00:05:17.000But he points out Beijing has been really attacking Taiwan's capabilities.
00:05:23.000That China has been stepping up its military pressure by increasing patrols in the area, that they could hold military exercise in the area.
00:05:30.000Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said, quote, we are very concerned.
00:05:33.000He said one concern was that a slowing economy and other troubles in China might lead Xi to make trouble for Taiwan as a distraction.
00:05:40.000This is the scenario that is constantly playing on the minds of the key decision makers on Taiwan, he said.
00:05:44.000So what that means is that the most likely outcome is indeed some sort of stalemate in terms of the United States and China that allows for continued economic growth up through the 2020 election, although it won't be booming in the same way that it would be if we weren't in the middle of a trade war with one of our largest trading partners.
00:05:59.000And again, I think there are very good reasons to get into a trade war with China based on China's aggression on 5G, based on their aggression in terms of their Belt and Road Project, based on their aggression in terms of naval presence in the South China Sea, and their aggression in Hong Kong, and their aggression against Taiwan.
00:06:14.000Those are all good reasons for us to take a very skeptical view of relations with China overall.
00:06:18.000We just have to acknowledge that that will Dampen growth a little bit going in more than a little bit, probably going into 2020.
00:06:25.000Now, in just a second, we're going to talk about the vulnerability for Democrats, because right now would seem like a pretty good time for Democrats.
00:06:31.000President Trump is not popular in terms of his overall approval rating.
00:06:35.000The Democratic Party is seeing significant gains in the polls in states like Wisconsin and states like Texas.
00:06:42.000Wouldn't this be a great time for the Democratic Party?
00:06:44.000Well, they've got one problem, and that's they can't get out of their own way.
00:06:52.000I could get here on time more often for my podcast.
00:06:55.000We've been starting a little bit late for this podcast nearly every day, and there are a variety of excuses I could make to you, but the truth is that if I were the most rigid kind of boss, I would fire me and replace me.
00:07:06.000But let's be honest, I'm not replaceable.
00:07:08.000But if I were, I would be looking to ZipRecruiter to replace me.
00:07:12.000I mean, I can promise you we didn't find Michael Moulse through ZipRecruiter.
00:07:14.000Like, I'd be looking for an actual good host to replace me via ZipRecruiter.com.
00:07:19.000Go check out ZipRecruiter.com slash DailyWire.
00:07:21.000ZipRecruiter will send your job posting to over 100 of the web's leading job boards, but they don't stop there.
00:07:26.000As the applications come in, ZipRecruiter analyzes each and every one and spotlights the top candidates so you never miss a great match.
00:07:45.000That is ZipRecruiter.com slash D-A-I-L-Y-W-I-R-E ZipRecruiter.com slash dailywire.
00:07:51.000ZipRecruiter is indeed the smartest way to hire.
00:07:54.000And so if ever I decide that I can no longer be trusted to even do the podcast, let alone get here on time, I will be looking to ZipRecruiter for my own replacement.
00:08:04.000We always enjoy our ZipRecruiter ads because somebody has to draw the short straw in terms of who is going to get nailed by the ZipRecruiter ad.
00:08:10.000Today, it was I. So ZipRecruiter.com slash DailyWire if you wish to upgrade your employees.
00:08:17.000Why is it that the polls are not better for Democrats in terms of favorability?
00:08:22.000And there's a shocking new YouGov poll, Economist YouGov poll, taken between September 1st and 3rd.
00:08:28.000And it's kind of fascinating because what it shows is that both Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders actually have lower favorability ratings than President Trump in the new YouGov poll.
00:08:38.000Biden's favorable and unfavorables in this poll are 42% favorable, 51% unfavorable for a net negative 9.
00:08:43.000Bernie's are 42 and 50 for a net negative 8.
00:09:51.000I've been knocked before for being, quote unquote, a religious fundamentalist, which is always kind of hilarious to me, considering I wrote an entire book about the necessity for balance between religion and faith and how they support each other and buttress each other rather than splitting everything apart.
00:10:06.000But the case that fundamentalism lies on the right is belied by the religious fundamentalism of the left about politics.
00:10:14.000The way that the Democrats talk about politics these days, it's sinners in the hands of an angry God.
00:10:18.000I mean, we have full Jonathan Edwards talk about modern American politics.
00:10:22.000You Americans have sinned and you must atone.
00:10:27.000And this is how you end up with a seven hour climate change town hall in which the Democrats claim that like religious figures of old, they are going to ban all the things.
00:10:35.000They're going to set up their own set of commandments and they're going to ban all the things.
00:10:38.000Here are Democrats just two nights ago talking about how all the things will be banned, all of them.
00:10:43.000Let's talk about offshore drilling for oil.
00:12:20.000Who is now going to lecture you on all the things that you do wrong because you are an imperfect human being and thus must be blamed for all of the problems on earth.
00:12:29.000Right now, we're in a mode where we're, I think we're thinking about it mostly through the perspective of guilt, you know, from using a straw to eating a burger.
00:12:55.000Talk about Catholic indulgences, right?
00:12:57.000Like you sin and now you must pay this indulgence to the church and then everything will be fine.
00:13:02.000And this is how the Democrats see that you vote for higher taxes and you have partaken of the indulgence.
00:13:07.000You acknowledge your white privilege, you have partaken of the indulgence.
00:13:10.000And Buttigieg does this over and over and over again.
00:13:13.000So here's Pete Buttigieg talking about Christians, right?
00:13:16.000So it's not just that you are part of the problem if you eat hamburgers or you use straws.
00:13:19.000Also, Pete Buttigieg is going to lecture you about religions.
00:13:21.000When I say that Democrats have become the religious fundamentalists, Pete Buttigieg is speaking the language of religious fundamentalism.
00:13:27.000He's just doing it from the left right here.
00:13:30.000For as long as there has been faith and as long as there has been politics, there have been different understandings on the right thing to do and how these things fit together.
00:13:37.000But for the party and the movement known for beating other people on the head with their faith or their interpretation of their faith, it makes no sense to literally vote to take food away from the hungry, to essentially be practicing the very thing to essentially be practicing the very thing that not just a Christian scriptural tradition, but so many others tell us we're not supposed to do in terms of harming other people.
00:14:05.000And I do think there's going to be a reckoning over that.
00:14:08.000As it turns out, it's not Mayor Pete, it's Pastor Pete.
00:14:27.000He was on, I guess, late night TV and he was talking about this specifically in the context of religion.
00:14:33.000Again, in the same way that you might hear your preacher talk about God being unhappy with the United States on abortion, but he says it's about global warming.
00:14:40.000So you're going to have to explain to me the distinction.
00:14:43.000Environmental stewardship isn't just about taking care of the planet.
00:15:18.000He's allowed to speak the language of religious fundamentalism and scold you and make you feel guilty and try and shame you into the precepts of his political religion by invoking God.
00:15:26.000And he does it over and over and over again.
00:15:29.000He talked about the Bible welcomes the stranger.
00:15:32.000If any Republican invoked the Bible as much on the campaign trail as Pastor Pete does, then they would rightly be seen as a religious fanatic trying to invoke God and the Bible on a routine basis in order to push their policies.
00:15:45.000Pete Buttigieg does it and the left is like, why?
00:15:48.000Because the left has its own religion.
00:15:50.000It's usually in the form of secular politics.
00:15:53.000What's fun for them and sort of pranky for them is the fact that Pete Buttigieg is trying to take God and the Bible and then use it against the very people who typically cite God and biblical values as the basis for their own root values.
00:16:04.000So the left seems to see Pastor Pete as some sort of a mole inside the religious camp.
00:16:10.000But the truth is that he's more of a troll.
00:16:12.000But that trollery is not in fact funny and it's not interesting.
00:16:17.000And it is part of a broader left-wing viewpoint, which is that everybody has to be shamed into doing what you want, and they should be shamed by the forces of corporate homogeneity.
00:16:28.000They should be forced to do what you want by the force of government, if that can be achieved.
00:16:33.000Here's Pastor Pete again, citing the Bible.
00:16:36.000As we see some of these figures on the religious right embrace behavior, and I think policies, but definitely behavior, that flies in the face, not just of my values, but of their own, then it reminds me of all of the parts of scripture where there's a lot about hypocrisy.
00:16:52.000And I think we have an obligation to call that out and to speak about how, you know, not just the Christian faith tradition that I belong to, but pretty much any religious or non-religious moral tradition I've ever heard of, tells us that it's really important how we treat the least among us, the most vulnerable, the marginalized, that we are obliged to serve the poor and heal the sick and clothe the naked and welcome the stranger.
00:17:13.000Stranger, by the way, being another word for immigrant.
00:17:16.000And that what we're seeing right now in the White House is the opposite.
00:17:20.000So Mayor Pete's pitch as the sort of id of the Democratic Party now, which is amazing, is that you are a bad Christian if you disagree with him, that you have sinned if you eat hamburgers or use straws.
00:19:42.000Okay, so, again, the beautiful thing about being a Democrat is that to partake in the religion does not require that you actually abide by its dictates.
00:19:50.000You just have to mouth support for its dictates.
00:19:52.000And that's how you end up with Tucker Carlson asking Bill de Blasio, if you're so worried about climate change, why are you taking an SUV to the gym?
00:20:54.000It's being part of the woke-skulled brigade.
00:20:56.000So you're either going to be the target of the woke-skulled brigade, or you're going to be part of the woke-skulled brigade.
00:21:01.000You're either with us, or you're against us.
00:21:04.000And that's going to become a very unpopular agenda.
00:21:07.000I can already see it among young people.
00:21:08.000I think there are a lot of generations here who are looking around and going, this is not a world I wish to occupy, where I am seen as either a part of the woke-skulled brigade and the woke-skulled religious fervor, or I'm their target.
00:21:22.000And you're starting to see this have blowback.
00:21:23.000It's having blowback in the world of comedy with Dave Chappelle and people like Aziz Ansari.
00:21:35.000It turns out that Walter Mosley is a novelist, screenwriter, and executive producer and writer on FX's Snowfall and the author, most recently, of Elements of Fiction.
00:21:43.000He has a piece today all about him quitting a writer's room because the corporate woke scolds have now decided they're going to cram down the religious rules of the woke scold left.
00:21:55.000A bunch of woke scolds get together and they decide that they're going to out people and hurt people and damage people's careers and damage corporations based on bad old tweets.
00:22:06.000And the corporations cave because the corporations are risk averse.
00:22:09.000And so they actually take the woke scold agenda and then they enshrine it in corporate bylaws.
00:22:14.000They enshrine it in their HR practices.
00:22:16.000And then it turns out that there's no flexibility in those practices.
00:22:19.000So when somebody who's a member of the left sins against The hierarchy that the left itself has created, they must pay.
00:22:26.000And this is exactly what happened to Walter Mosley.
00:22:29.000He says, earlier this year, I had just finished with the Snowfall writer's room for the season when I took a similar job on a different show at a different network.
00:22:35.000I'd been in the new room for a few weeks when I got a call from Human Resources.
00:22:38.000A pleasant sounding young man said, Mr. Mosley, it has been reported that you use the N-word in the writer's room.
00:22:43.000I replied, I am the N-word in the writer's room.
00:23:08.000I just told a story about a cop who explained to me on the streets of LA that he stopped all n-words in patty neighborhoods and all patties in n-word neighborhoods because they were usually up to no good.
00:23:17.000I was telling a true story as I remembered it.
00:23:20.000Someone in the room, I have no idea who, called HR and said that my use of the word made them uncomfortable, and the HR rep called to inform me that such language was unacceptable to my employers.
00:23:29.000I couldn't use that word in common parlance, even to express an experience I lived through.
00:23:33.000There I was, a black man in America, who shares with millions of others the history of racism, and more often than not, treated it as subhuman.
00:23:39.000If addressed at all, that history had to be rendered in words my employers regarded as acceptable.
00:23:44.000There I was being chastised for criticising the word that oppressed me and mine for centuries.
00:23:49.000As far as I know, the word is in the dictionary.
00:23:51.000As far as I know, the Constitution and the Bill of Rights assure me of both the freedom of speech and the pursuit of happiness.
00:23:58.000And you can see the political awakening beginning.
00:24:00.000The Democratic Party is trying to formalize the rules of political correctness, implement them from above, in both governmental and corporate terms, and people are beginning to buck against that system.
00:24:10.000You wonder why the Democrats aren't able to pull ahead of a very unpopular president like President Trump?
00:24:50.000You don't know if you're getting the best plan.
00:24:52.000PolicyGenius now makes it easier than ever to get you covered.
00:24:55.000PolicyGenius is the easy way to shop for life insurance online.
00:24:59.000In minutes, you can compare quotes from top insurers and find your best price.
00:25:02.000Once you apply, the Policy Genius team will handle all the paperwork and the red tape.
00:25:06.000And Policy Genius doesn't just make life insurance easy.
00:25:08.000They can also help you find the right home insurance, auto insurance, disability insurance.
00:25:12.000Policy Genius makes it super simple to get life insurance so you don't have any more excuses.
00:25:16.000And now that you're aware of it being National Life Insurance Awareness Month, we've made you aware Go do the responsible thing and be a responsible human.
00:25:52.000Well, Breitbart News published an article detailing images of past tweets from Riley in which he criticized the American flag and made a connection between police and racism.
00:26:02.000According to Jackson Fuentes, the press secretary for the University of Alabama Student Government Association, they confirmed that Riley is no longer working at the university.
00:26:32.000Is it that hard to see the correlation?
00:26:34.000And then he also tweeted, I'm baffled about how the first thing white people say is that's not racist when they can't even experience racism.
00:26:45.000And then he also sent a tweet saying, are movies about slavery truly about educating the unaware or to remind black people of our place in society?
00:26:51.000Okay, these are all radical tweets, right?
00:26:52.000I mean, these are things that I disagree with.
00:27:03.000But the world the left has created is a world without forgiveness.
00:27:06.000And if the right decides to apply those same rules to people on the left, well, then this is the world the left has created.
00:27:11.000And I think more and more people are tired of these rules.
00:27:13.000I think more and more people Believe that these rules are terrible, that they're bad for America, that they're bad for the country, that the woke scolding of the left is tiresome and annoying, and that Trump was the middle finger to that.
00:27:26.000So if this becomes a battle between Pastor Pete and his schoolmarmish lecturing of you about your own personal morality, and Donald Trump and his freewheeling, I'll say anything, I don't really care.
00:27:37.000The American people are not up for more Pastor Pete-ing.
00:27:40.000They're not up for more shaming and guilting.
00:27:43.000Not about things that they don't deserve to be shamed or guilted over, like believing in basic biblical precepts, or disagreeing with Mayor Pete over immigration policy, or wanting to see an actual plan for climate change that doesn't involve destroying the United States economy while China sails along on the shoals of carbon emissions.
00:27:59.000And so I think that this is why the Democrats are having trouble with popularity.
00:28:02.000Now, again, it's like this election, this 2020 election, is a game of hold my beer.
00:28:07.000There's this meme online where it's like somebody's doing something stupid.
00:28:11.000You're like, well, that that other person couldn't do something as stupid as that.
00:28:14.000And the other person's like, well, hold my beer.
00:28:17.000So Trump is constantly saying, tweeting things that damage himself.
00:28:22.000And then the Democrats are like, hold my beer, let's do a seven hour climate change extravaganza where we talk about banning cows and air travel.
00:28:30.000And then Trump is like, wait, no, you hold my beer.
00:28:34.000And then he's like, you know what I'm gonna do?
00:28:35.000I'm gonna do like a four-day controversy over whether I was originally right to have suggested that Hurricane Dorian might make landfall in Alabama.
00:28:46.000Is that something we really have to do?
00:28:47.000And the answer, according to Trump, is yes, because never back down, never compromise, never suggest that you could possibly have got nothing wrong.
00:28:53.000Like, why couldn't Trump have just said, listen, got it wrong.
00:28:56.000I was given information that Dorian might make landfall in Alabama.
00:29:10.000So he has now tweeted, about Hurricane Dorian repeatedly, repeatedly, right?
00:29:16.000Because he is trying to suggest that he was always right when he was talking about the projected path of Hurricane Dorian.
00:29:24.000This became a big controversy because there was a because President Trump did a press conference on September 4th, holding up a map of Hurricane Dorian, and it showed its projected storm path or possible storm path hitting Florida.
00:29:35.000And he had tweeted out that it might hit Alabama, too.
00:29:57.000Am I really going to be, like, super offended that this man is very thin-skinned and arrogant and can't abide the fact that he made a mistake?
00:30:31.000It's like that scene at the beginning of Zoolander where everybody's shooting each other with gasoline and then somebody, we're just waiting for somebody to light the match at this point.
00:30:49.000Okay, well, it's all so stupid and yet hilarious.
00:30:53.000We'll talk about it in just one second.
00:30:54.000First, let's talk about sleep quality.
00:30:56.000So as you know, I talk about sleep quality a lot on the show because I am not a good sleeper.
00:31:00.000I'm good at some things, I am bad at other things.
00:31:02.000One of the things I am particularly bad at is sleep.
00:31:04.000Well, one of the things that makes my sleep possible Is my bull and branch sheets.
00:31:08.000Everything bull and branch makes from bedding to blankets is made from pure 100% organic cotton.
00:31:13.000You don't know that you've been sleeping in bad sheets all your life until you try bull and branch sheets, which are actually excellent.
00:31:19.000They're so good that once I got bull and branch sheets in my home, I actually threw out all my other sheets because it ruined all the other sheets for me.
00:31:24.000I realized I was basically sleeping on a tarp.
00:31:27.000And then you get bull and branch sheets.
00:31:28.000Like, oh my God, this is what sheets should feel like.
00:32:08.000Well, we're going to get to more of President Trump and Hurricane Dorian, and then a fascinating new study that talks about the economics of marriage and how those have shifted over time.
00:32:17.000We'll get to all of that in just a moment.
00:32:19.000First, you have to go to dailywire.com and subscribe.
00:33:19.000Did you see that story about Rachel Maddow apparently walking into some sort of symposium where scientists were being awarded and she said, what's up with the dude wall?
00:33:26.000And they actually took down the pictures of the scientists because Rachel Maddow complained that too many men were being good at science.
00:33:49.000Also, you help protect us against the nastiness of the left, which, as we say, is seeking to destroy all in its path.
00:33:55.000You protect shows that you love when you subscribe, so please join the team over at dailywire.com.
00:33:58.000We are the largest, fastest growing conservative podcast and radio show in the nation.
00:34:01.000So as I say, President Trump, all he should be doing is the Donald Sutherland at the end of Invasion of the Body Snatchers face.
00:34:15.000He should just be screaming and pointing at Democrats.
00:34:18.000Instead, we get a week-long news cycle because he won't let go of the fact that he was not correct about the path of a hurricane that has already made landfall.
00:34:34.000No, what they're saying is that you were informed that the hurricane was going to move, and then you put, with a sharpie, more of the hurricane going in the wrong direction, and then maintained that.
00:35:17.000I'm sure that FEMA has suspended all resource allocation because Trump is using a Sharpie.
00:35:23.000You are literally in the middle of a hurricane.
00:35:26.000And this president is all about defending himself and his erroneous claim.
00:35:31.000Fake maps, compelling people to justify his claims, and not really focusing on the people who should be getting help, which is what a leader does.
00:36:23.000Also, he does it every morning because he's three.
00:36:26.000Like, if Donald Trump tweets random crap, have we not adjusted to the fact that the President of the United States is a man who tweets random crap?
00:37:01.000In the early days of the hurricane, when it was predicted that Dorian would go through Miami or West Palm Beach, even before it reached the Bahamas, certain models strongly suggested that Alabama and Georgia would be hit as it made its way through Florida and to the Gulf.
00:37:14.000Instead, it turned north and went up the coast, where it continues now.
00:37:17.000In the one model through Florida, the great state Alabama would have been hit or grazed.
00:37:53.000And so I guess this game of hold my beer will continue until the end of time or until 2020 election, whichever comes first.
00:37:59.000Meanwhile, there's a fascinating new study that I want to talk about today.
00:38:02.000It's really a really interesting new study.
00:38:05.000It's from researchers at Cornell University.
00:38:07.000They say marriage rates have steadily declined over the past few decades.
00:38:10.000Now researchers from Cornell University are offering up a possible explanation.
00:38:14.000There just aren't as many economically attractive men for unmarried women to meet as there used to be.
00:38:19.000Previous studies had attempted to answer why marriage rates are on the decline, but most focus solely on gender ratio discrepancies, as opposed to looking into the specific socioeconomic characteristics that make a particular man and woman a good match, according to studyfinds.org.
00:38:32.000First, The study's authors examined data collected on recent marriages between 2007 and 2012 and 2013 and 2017.
00:38:39.000These data were gathered as part of the American Community Survey's cumulative five-year marriage statistics.
00:38:45.000That data was used to estimate the financial and socio-demographic characteristics of unmarried women's potential husbands.
00:38:52.000By creating economic profiles that resembled real husbands who had married comparable women.
00:38:55.000So in other words, they would take two women, one was single, one was married.
00:38:59.000They would say the married woman tends to be married to this type of dude.
00:39:02.000Are there a lot of that type of dude in the population for the single woman to be married to?
00:39:07.000Researchers found that the estimated potential dream husbands had an average income about 58% higher than the actual unmarried men currently available to unmarried women.
00:39:17.000The synthetic husbands were also 30% more likely to be employed than real single men and 19% more likely to have a college degree.
00:39:24.000It was also observed that many racial and ethnic minorities, specifically African-American women, seem to be dealing with especially low numbers of economically attractive potential mates.
00:39:33.000So this is sort of Tucker Carlson's case, right?
00:39:34.000Tucker Carlson has been making the case that men have been underserved in the labor force, that with the advent of women moving into the labor force at heavier and heavier rates, there's more competition for increasing jobs, but the number of jobs is not increasing fast enough, and that that increasing competition has left a lot of men out of jobs, Or in part-time jobs or in lower earning jobs because of wage competition.
00:39:54.000And this has led to a decline in marriage because women want to marry men who earn more than they do or at least as much as they do.
00:39:59.000They want to marry men who are better educated.
00:40:02.000Everybody sort of wants to marry up is basically the supposition.
00:40:06.000And this study is supposed to show exactly that.
00:40:09.000And the study is basically saying there are not enough men who are earning high salaries for women to marry.
00:40:16.000I think there's some flaws with the study.
00:40:17.000I think, first of all, correlation does not equal causation.
00:40:20.000It is quite possible that women are marrying the choicest men, specifically because they are the choicest men, but that doesn't explain why low-income women are unable to find men who are earning slightly more than that.
00:40:31.000There are plenty of middle-class men who are unmarried, and a lot of low-income... You would imagine that what you would see, if that were the case, if it were really just about the number of women Not matching up with the number of men who earn more.
00:40:43.000What you would expect to see is a decline in the levels of marriage as female income went up, right?
00:40:48.000You'd expect to see a lot of poor women getting married because there are a lot of people who are richer than poor in the United States, a lot of men.
00:40:54.000And then as you moved up the income scale, you would expect to see women who earn a lot of money marrying less and less.
00:40:59.000And that's actually the opposite of what you see, right?
00:41:01.000What you actually see is that women who are better educated tend to get married more often.
00:41:10.000As you increase the income scale, what you see is that higher levels of education actually correlate highly with higher levels of marriage.
00:41:18.000So this kind of cuts against the normal supposition, which is that women who will go to college are women's empowerment specialists and they never get married.
00:41:38.000According to a Pew Research study from 2017, half of U.S.
00:41:41.000adults today are married, a share that has remained relatively stable in recent years, but is down 9 percentage points over the past quarter century and dramatically different from the peak of 72% in 1960.
00:41:51.000The decline in the share of married adults can be explained in part by the fact that Americans are marrying later in life, but delayed marriage may not explain all of the drop-off.
00:41:59.000The share of Americans who have never married has been rising steadily in recent decades.
00:42:04.000Marriage rates are now more closely linked to socioeconomic status than ever before.
00:42:08.000And what the Census Bureau data show is that the education gap in marital status has continued to widen.
00:42:34.000So is that about the lack of marriageable partners?
00:42:36.000It seems probably not because the fact is again, most Americans are not poor.
00:42:40.000So if you are poorly educated or you have lower levels of education, there should be more marriageable partners available to you because you're here in education.
00:42:55.000The economic hollowing out theory doesn't quite match up.
00:42:58.000Now, it is true that higher earning men would provide more of an economic benefit for marriage, obviously.
00:43:05.000But what this really goes to is a cultural effect.
00:43:07.000So this has been the big battle inside the conservative movement right now over the role of government.
00:43:12.000So people like Tucker have suggested that what you need is government interventionism to shore up male wages in order so that people will get married.
00:43:19.000And there is some truth to the idea that as male wages have relatively declined compared to female wages, that the marriage rates have gone down.
00:43:27.000But it is also true that exactly what you would expect to happen with regard to economics has been exacerbated wildly, wildly by the decline of religion in America.
00:43:41.000And what you are expecting, again, what you would expect to see is that people who are lower on the income totem pole should be getting married more often if they are simply seeking a partner who earns more than they do, because again, they're low on the income totem pole.
00:43:52.000Instead, what you are seeing is that high school educated males are not getting married as much.
00:43:57.000That the middle income and blue collar workers are not getting married as much, which is quite fascinating.
00:44:04.000That the real problem is existing lower down on the income spectrum.
00:44:09.000So there's an article in the Atlantic today talking about America without family, God, or patriotism, because there was a new poll we talked about on the show showing that younger people in America do not believe in family, God, or patriotism.
00:44:21.000And where is that population really located?
00:44:24.000The author of this piece in the Atlantic, Derek Thompson, a staff writer, he points out that disproportionately, disproportionately, it's not really about youth alone.
00:44:35.000He says there's this blanket distrust of institutions of authority, but it's not confined to the relatively young, and it isn't confined to the over-educated.
00:44:45.000He points out a study from Catherine Eden and Timothy Nelson at Princeton University, Andrew Cherlin at Johns Hopkins, and Robert Francis at Whitworth.
00:44:51.000They published a paper based on lengthy interviews conducted from 2000 to 2013 with older, low-income men without a college degree in black and white working-class neighborhoods in the Boston, Charleston, Chicago, and Philadelphia areas.
00:45:03.000Now, what you would expect is that these are people who want to get married but can't get married because they're not earning enough, right?
00:45:07.000That would be the theory behind sort of what Tucker says and what this new study says about the economics of marriage.
00:45:13.000It turns out, a lot of these dudes just don't want to get married.
00:45:16.000According to this particular study, many of these men, having been disconnected from the stable, unionized, pension-paying jobs of their fathers, reject the diseased state of American institutions in ways that millennials might find relatable.
00:45:28.000First, low-income, working-class men are turning away from organized religion even faster than millennials in Gen Z.
00:45:35.000And this, I think, is the causative factor.
00:45:37.000Since the 1970s, church attendance among white men without a college degree has fallen even more than among white college graduates, according to the paper.
00:45:45.000They remain deeply spiritual without being traditionally devout.
00:45:49.000Instead, they prefer to browse the internet and libraries for makeshift pieces of religious self.
00:45:54.000They've detached from religious institutions.
00:45:57.000And many poor working class men now reject the nuclear family itself.
00:46:01.000Their marriage rates have declined in lockstep with their church attendance, right?
00:46:04.000Not in lockstep with their economic situation, in lockstep with their church attendance.
00:46:08.000The authors note a number of these men were eager to have close relationships with their kids, even when they had little relationship with the mothers.
00:46:15.000Many of them had given up on romance with the relationship with women.
00:46:20.000And they're facing challenges with regard to mental health, specifically because they've abandoned a lot of these institutions.
00:46:54.000Reason number one is because it's an economic decision.
00:46:58.000There, the changes in American economics obviously would have an impact.
00:47:02.000So if you're getting married because you believe that two incomes are better than one, or because you're looking for a breadwinner in your home and you can't find a breadwinner in your home, obviously that's going to impact marriage rates.
00:47:11.000But the fact is, most people historically in the United States and abroad do not get married for the economic arrangement.
00:47:16.000Most people traditionally have gotten married because they believe that it is the right thing to do, that it betters you, that you're fulfilling a religious obligation, And that is particularly important in industrialized countries.
00:47:28.000Because it used to be, right, in poorer countries, that the economics and the religion lined up.
00:47:33.000The economics and the religion lined up really well, in fact, because you wanted, you were poor.
00:47:38.000Your biggest asset was going to be your children, right?
00:47:40.000Your children were gonna take care of you in your old age.
00:47:41.000They were gonna help you work the fields.
00:47:43.000They were gonna make sure that you were taken care of.
00:47:44.000They were going to join the family business.
00:47:46.000So you wanted to pop out little workers, right?
00:47:49.000You were going to create your own labor supply.
00:47:51.000And the only way to do that is to marry mom and then have kids.
00:47:54.000And so that lined up perfectly with the dictates of your religion, which also suggested you were fulfilling a spiritual and religious duty to get married and have kids.
00:48:02.000Well now what you've seen in the West is a bifurcation of the economics and the religion.
00:48:06.000So religions has the same thing that it always said, which is it is spiritually fulfilling, it is a godly mandate for you to get married and pop out kids, that this is something that you ought to do will make you better, it is you fulfilling a spiritual requirement of you dictated by God.
00:48:20.000Religion has not changed one iota on this, which is why people who deeply believe in religion are still getting married.
00:48:27.000Because now, having kids is a net cost.
00:48:29.000In fact, women who have kids, that is a... According to Elizabeth Warren, that is one of the single best predictors of a woman going bankrupt, is having children.
00:48:38.000So, kids are actually a net cost, right?
00:48:42.000Because now the government's gonna take care of you in your old age.
00:49:00.000One, to quote-unquote, fix the economics.
00:49:02.000That's very difficult without either changing the labor system in the United States through subsidies or through regulations, which would lower the average level of the American consumption habits tremendously.
00:49:25.000Do you really think that we can reestablish an economic system where it is economically beneficial for women to marry and men to marry and them to have kids?
00:49:32.000Because that has never applied in industrialized countries, which is why as people get richer, they tend to have fewer children, right?
00:49:38.000Because kids cost instead of being a benefit.
00:49:40.000Or should we be encouraging people to reconnect with a lot of the religious and spiritual institutions that used to give people meaning?
00:49:49.000Because it turns out that the lack of meaning is probably a better predictor of whether you're going to make solid decisions in your personal life than whether you earn a lot of money or whether you don't earn a lot of money.
00:50:50.000I do... I'm always amused by the... Dennis Prager, my friend Dennis Prager, he has this very simple thought experiment that he likes to do.
00:51:03.000And he's always surprised that a huge number of people say that they would save the dog.
00:51:08.000I am similarly surprised, but that same logic is now applied to the logic of abortion.
00:51:13.000Will Witt over at PragerU did a video in which he went around asking a bunch of liberals whether we should protect the lives of unborn eagles.
00:53:01.000The woke scults came after him because they were like, well, he worked with focus on the family and focus on the family is in favor of traditional marriage.
00:53:21.000There's been a lot of negativity spread about me in the LGBTQ community recently based upon a article that someone wrote with a very negative headline that I think led people to believe that somehow I was aligned with an organization that was anti LGBTQ.
00:53:40.000What I did was I filmed a video recently that was encouraging kids to bring their Bibles to school for National Bring Your Bible to School Day.