Chip and Joanna Gaines in serious trouble with their Christian audience, and for a pretty good reason. Plus, big wins for President Trump on the economy, and we ll talk about the latest in the ongoing Epstein saga. But first, already, folks, we are celebrating a decade of the Daily Wire, 10 years of fighting the culture war, and building something real. And how are we celebrating? We are growing fast. More members, more shows, more voices like Isabel Brown, new documentaries like Journey to the UFC, The Joe Pfeiffer Story, premiering Friday, July 25th. Not just a fight doc, a blueprint for becoming unstoppable from nothing to UFC stardom through trauma, pain, and no excuses. It s the kind of story this culture needs and we re proud to tell it.
00:00:01.000Chip and Joanna Gaines in serious trouble with their Christian audience, and for a pretty good reason, plus big wins for President Trump on the economy.
00:00:09.000And we'll talk about the latest in the ongoing Epstein saga.
00:00:13.000But first, already, folks, real quick, we are celebrating a decade of the Daily Wire, 10 years of fighting the culture war and building something real.
00:00:22.000More members, more shows, more voices like Isabel Brown, new documentaries like Journey to the UFC, the Joe Pfeiffer story premiering Friday, July 25th.
00:00:30.000Not just a fight doc, a blueprint for becoming unstoppable.
00:00:33.000From nothing to UFC stardom through trauma, pain, no excuses.
00:00:37.000It's the kind of story this culture needs, and we are proud to tell it.
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00:00:53.000There's a basic rule of thumb when it comes to judicial appointees.
00:00:56.000And that basic rule of thumb for people who are originalists or conservatives is that if you don't have a track record as an originalist or a conservative, and then you enter the bench, there's a good shot that very, very soon you will swivel to the left.
00:01:09.000And that is also true in the world of the universities and it's true in the world of Hollywood.
00:01:14.000If you go to Hollywood and you don't have a very clear, long-standing track record as, for example, a religious conservative who stood stalwart in the face of left-wing aggression, there's a good shot that pretty quickly you are going to cave.
00:01:28.000At some point, you're going to cave because the pressure to be eaten up by the social values of the left in Hollywood is so extreme.
00:01:35.000And that apparently is what has happened with the Chip and Joanna Gaines show, Back to the Frontier.
00:01:42.000So according to Breitbart.com, there's a brand new show called Back to the Frontier on HGTV.
00:01:49.000Chip and Joanna Gaines, of course, present themselves as devout Christians, and a lot of their fans are Christian and faith-based.
00:01:55.000But the new series features a gay couple with adopted children.
00:02:00.000And a lot of people are upset with the Gaines because of this.
00:02:03.000They're saying, okay, hold up a second.
00:02:05.000You purport to be religious Christians.
00:02:07.000And this is a show that I would normally watch with my family.
00:02:09.000But now here you are normalizing what is, by any sort of traditional Christian theology, sinful behavior.
00:02:17.000Now, again, you don't have to believe any of this if you're a secular person.
00:02:20.000If you're not a Christian, maybe this doesn't matter to you.
00:02:23.000But the reality is that people who are traditionally faithful to scripture believe that man, woman, children is the basic standard for how families form and should be the basic standard for how families form.
00:02:37.000And so for Christians who have made their money on Christians being loyal to their show to actually now start infusing their shows with left-wing social values is a problem.
00:03:35.000Can they make it as 1880s homesteaders?
00:03:41.000So, as you can see, again, this is a Max original, and the idea is that they're going to replicate the conditions of homesteading back on the range, back in the 1880s or something.
00:03:50.000The gay couple is named Joe Riggs and Jason Hanna, and they told the Dallas Morning News they felt the show was an opportunity to put ourselves out there and help normalize families like ours, which, of course, is the goal whenever Hollywood does something like this.
00:04:01.000The goal, of course, is to essentially say that all forms of family are morally the same, which is a very Hollywood value.
00:04:08.000And this goes all the way back to the early 1990s and Mrs. Doubtfire, when you had Robin Williams lecturing the American public that all forms of families were essentially morally equivalent.
00:04:18.000And they said, quote, when families like ours are visible, it opens doors for others to feel safe, loved, and validated.
00:04:23.000Visibility isn't just about being seen.
00:04:25.000It's about making sure no one feels alone.
00:04:27.000So Chip Gaines was inundated with complaints from his fan base because, of course, the Chip and Joanna Gaines fanbase is biblically loyal.
00:04:33.000And so what they're saying is, listen, obviously this phenomenon exists in life.
00:04:38.000Gay marriage is legal in the United States, but that doesn't mean that you, as a creator, a person that we trust with our time and maybe put our kids in front of the TV to watch your shows, ought to be mainlining left-wing social values into your shows.
00:04:50.000So Chip Gaines then basically called all those people intolerant, quote, talk, ask questions, listen, maybe even learn.
00:04:56.000Too much to ask of modern American Christian culture.
00:04:58.000Judge first, understand later or never.
00:05:00.000It's a sad Sunday when non-believers have never been confronted with hate or vitriol until they are introduced to a modern American Christian.
00:05:15.000I mean, put aside the morality of what he's saying, which is insipid.
00:05:18.000It turns out that traditional morality does draw lines between certain behavior and other behavior.
00:05:23.000It doesn't mean you have to treat people badly.
00:05:24.000It doesn't mean that you have to be insulting or awful to them.
00:05:28.000But obviously, if you are a traditional religious person and you believe that traditional marriage is the way that God intended for the world to work and nature designed the world to work, if that is what you believe, then you should stand by that even when it is politically unpopular.
00:05:43.000Again, that doesn't even mean that you can't have friends who are violating what you think of as faith standards.
00:05:50.000Because as pretty much all Judeo-Christian teaching teaches, everybody sins.
00:05:57.000That does not mean that the sin itself becomes normalized and is treated as okay or as totally normalized, which is exactly, of course, what the show is designed to do.
00:06:06.000And of course, many of the followers of Chip and Joanna Gaines are not only upset with the fact that the show is featuring this sort of stuff, they're upset with the fact that Chip is now sneering at them, that he's looking down his nose at them and suggesting that the real problem here is not that he has violated his own faith standards by promulgating a set of values that is un-Christian, but that he believes that Christians themselves, by objecting to that promulgation, are thus demonstrating that they're intolerant, avicious, and mean.
00:06:33.000Objecting to the normalization of what Christians or Jews or anyone else considers to be sinful, that is not mean or intolerant.
00:06:43.000That is just saying there is a standard, and the standard should be something that if you purport to be an upholder of that standard, you should abide by.
00:06:50.000John MacArthur passed away the other day.
00:06:52.000This is something that Reverend MacArthur was extremely big on.
00:06:55.000The idea that God's standard, again, this is within the context of Christianity, obviously.
00:07:00.000If Chip and Joanna Gaines were just a secular couple who had never purported to be Christian and they were making a show like this in Hollywood, no one would care.
00:07:23.000If you never say that you're an adherent to that idea and then you're not adherent to that idea, well, how can we hold you responsible for that?
00:07:30.000But Chip and Joanna Gaines have made their money off American Christians who believe that Chip and Joanna Gaines are some of them.
00:07:35.000My friend Matt Walsh tweeted out, maybe you should endeavor to understand the basic moral teachings of your own alleged religion before you give lectures to other people about their lack of understanding, which seems like a pretty solid take.
00:07:48.000The response, which is to lecture Christians, that they are not being Christian enough by accepting and promulgating and normalizing behavior they consider to be sinful, that is a pretty insane perspective for the Gaines to take.
00:08:02.000Now, again, the Gaines have been under fire for a long time because the way that Hollywood works is that if you are a traditional Christian, they immediately call you a bigot homophobe.
00:08:10.000And if you can't stand up to that pressure, then you're likely to cave to that pressure and then become part of the sort of left-wing media Borg.
00:08:19.000The Gaines, as Breitbart reports, were accused of being anti-LGBTQ in the past.
00:08:23.000And at that time, they insisted the accusations were far from the truth.
00:08:28.000Joanna Gaines told the Hollywood Reporter at the time, sometimes I'm like, can I just make a statement?
00:08:31.000The accusations that get thrown at you, like you're racist or you don't like people in the LGBTQ community, that's the stuff that really eats my lunch because it's so far from who we really are.
00:08:40.000But let's be clear, the slide from you should be nice to people who, even people you believe are committing a sin, to promulgating the sin, normalizing the sin, changing the standard, that is the move that Christians object to.
00:08:54.000That is the move that religious people object to.
00:08:58.000Again, take it to a Judaic context so I can speak for my own religion.
00:09:02.000There are plenty of people, many, many people I know who violate what I think are the traditional standards of Shabbat, right?
00:09:08.000What we do on Sabbath, what you are supposed to do on Sabbath.
00:09:11.000For example, you're not supposed to drive on Sabbath according to traditional Judaism because you have to create fire in order to do that, right, with the internal combustion engine.
00:09:19.000And I know tons and tons of Jews with whom I'm incredibly friendly, some of my family members.
00:09:23.000I know a lot of people who do that sort of thing, drive on Sabbath.
00:09:35.000And if we're to be honest with each other as a civilization and as human beings, we should be able to be honest about what we perceive to be the actual moral standards that are being violated.
00:09:44.000And just because you have friends who violate the moral standard doesn't mean that the moral standard ought to be obliterated because then there's no moral standard at all.
00:09:54.000Niceness, civility, it's a good thing, but it isn't a moral standard in the same way that a hard and fast rule about human behavior is because it's mushy.
00:10:04.000Niceness used as sort of the only moral standard does not bear scrutiny.
00:10:16.000It is not a gigantic moral standard upon which you can base a civilization.
00:10:21.000And so what Chip and Joanna Gaines are doing here, and I understand why Christians are so angry at them, and they should be very, very angry at them for this, frankly.
00:10:27.000Because again, if you are tasked with upholding a standard, you should uphold that standard.
00:10:32.000And if you betray the standard, you should be called out for that.
00:10:37.000It's true with regard to life more generally.
00:10:40.000So again, I think they owe their fans a major, major apology.
00:10:43.000And I talk about this cultural issue because I do think that it undergirds so much of politics and undergirds so much of our social life together.
00:10:51.000Because two things can be true at once, as always.
00:10:53.000One, you can hold a strong moral standard, a standard that matters.
00:10:57.000And two, you should be tolerant toward people in terms of how you treat them, treat them nicely, who don't abide by your moral standard so long as they are not actively hurting anybody else.
00:11:06.000That does not mean the moral standard itself should change because a change to the overall moral standard does affect the overall society.
00:11:14.000That is how normal people and religious people ought to interact with the world.
00:11:18.000Already coming up, some big wins for President Trump on the economy, plus everything Epstein related, all your updates.
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00:12:24.000Also, as you may have noticed, my work schedule has been insane and I'm traveling an awful lot, but I still need to make sure that I'm maintaining my health, you know, doing the gym, spending time with the family, even with all the craziness.
00:12:34.000I've learned pretty quickly that peak performance requires peak nutrition, not just more caffeine.
00:12:39.000That means you have to eat enough fruits and veggies throughout the course of the day.
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00:13:32.000Okay, meanwhile, President Trump is winning some pretty big economic victories.
00:13:37.000Yesterday, the president of the United States announced a bunch of economic wins.
00:13:42.000He announced that Indonesia had agreed to a tariff deal.
00:13:46.000According to Breitbart.com, Indonesia has now agreed to a 19% tariff on its imported goods into the United States.
00:13:52.000While the United States will not pay any tariffs in the Indonesian market and will have full access to it, according to the president, President Trump said, I spoke to the really great president, very popular, very strong, smart.
00:14:02.000This is how President Trump gauges the people with whom he negotiates.
00:14:21.000So they're giving us access into Indonesia, which we never had.
00:14:24.000That's probably the biggest part of the deal.
00:14:26.000The other part is they're going to pay 19% and we are going to pay nothing.
00:14:30.000Now, again, I had suggested that before August 1st, there were likely to be a spate of trade deals that were done.
00:14:36.000Because if we hit August 1st, that is his sort of drop-dead date when we get a snap back to the original Liberation Day tariff rates, which are extremely, extremely high.
00:14:45.000Meanwhile, negotiations continue with Canada.
00:14:47.000Prime Minister Mark Carney, according to Politico, has acknowledged publicly for the first time that the deal he is negotiating with the United States is almost certain to come with some tariffs.
00:14:56.000Before Carney's admission, Canadian officials had consistently held out hope for a nearly tariff-free relationship as part of a new trade and security agreement.
00:15:04.000The precise terms of Canada's negotiating position remain unclear, but President Trump acknowledged at the G7 leaders' summit in Alberta last month that Kearney's offer differed from the president's pro-tariff preference.
00:15:15.000And now Kearney is recognizing that he is going to have to do some tariffs because President Trump still likes tariffs.
00:15:20.000However, I do think that some sort of tariff deal will end up being negotiated with Canada as well.
00:15:24.000This is the reason, by the way, why, for example, the S ⁇ P 500, despite all of this sort of tariff talk, has been in pretty solid territory for the last several weeks.
00:15:35.000The markets are not being tremendously broiled by President Trump's tariff talks.
00:15:39.000The common understanding is that the worst excesses of any sort of tariff regime are likely to be avoided by the presidents of the United States in some sort of final tariff negotiation here.
00:15:51.000Meanwhile, President Trump did a big event yesterday in Pennsylvania where he announced massive new investments into AI and energy.
00:16:22.000And again, I think this is the big question is can we stay ahead of China?
00:16:26.000As we'll talk about in a little while, there's some pretty interesting controversy over the kinds of microchips that should be available to the Chinese via NVIDIA.
00:16:33.000Jensen Huang, the CEO of NVIDIA, has suggested that China should be able to get a certain supply of microchips.
00:16:39.000They're sort of second-order microchips.
00:16:41.000His basic claim is that if we make China path-dependent on our microchips, that's better because then it's going to be easier to control their growth in the AI space.
00:16:49.000Plus, it's going to provide a profit boost to NVIDIA and other American microchip companies.
00:16:54.000President Trump also announced that we are making massive investments in energy yesterday.
00:16:59.000The investments being announced this afternoon include more than $56 billion in new energy infrastructure and more than $36 billion in new data center projects.
00:17:10.000And a lot more than that are going to be announced in the coming weeks, not even months, I think we could say weeks.
00:17:16.000President Trump was in Pittsburgh at the time, praising companies for investing more than $90 billion in data centers and other energy projects in Pennsylvania, aimed at accelerating the development of AI.
00:17:27.000And of course, Pittsburgh is an amazing story here because Pittsburgh used to be a town that made steel.
00:17:33.000And now Pittsburgh is largely healthcare and tech, which demonstrates the viability of a capitalist economy.
00:17:38.000In a capitalist economy, jobs shift from industries that are dying or being outproduced into new industries.
00:17:44.000And that allows the growth of those areas and, in fact, the revitalization of those areas.
00:17:50.000For all of those who are sort of attached to the idea that whatever a town did in the past is the thing the town must do in the future, that is not a proper way to approach economics.
00:17:58.000And President Trump is acknowledging that implicitly with this event organized by Senator David McCormick of Pennsylvania.
00:18:04.000So with all of that said, the event yesterday in Pennsylvania was in fact a big success.
00:18:09.000As I mentioned, Senator McCormick put it together.
00:18:12.000We campaigned with him in Pennsylvania before the last election happened.
00:18:15.000He brought together President Trump and executives from technology and fossil fuel companies, including Amazon Web Services, Anthropic, Google, ExxonMobil, and Westinghouse.
00:18:24.000And at the event, the private equity from Blackstone, according to the New York Times, announced that it would invest $25 billion in new data centers and energy infrastructure, including natural gas power plants.
00:18:33.000Google said it would invest another $25 billion in data centers and announced a separate $3 billion plan to upgrade two of Pennsylvania's existing hydroelectric dams to produce more electricity.
00:18:43.000A lot of this is being done in competition with China.
00:18:46.000You heard President Trump say that with regard to AI.
00:18:48.000Officials say winning the AI race with China is absolutely necessary because, number one, China is, in fact, a national security threat to the United States.
00:18:56.000And two, China's, maybe their only hope of out-competing the United States is to overtly win the AI race, which is living off the data of everybody in a centralized fashion.
00:19:06.000AI is bizarrely centralized in a way that no other economic tool ever has been.
00:19:13.000The same is true for laissez-faire economics in general, wildly decentralized.
00:19:18.000The basic idea of AI, of course, is that it's a centralization of all information, and then it spits out a sort of godlike answer to questions.
00:19:25.000If China were to win that race, not only could they propagandize to the rest of the world, they could Also, presumably live off of the decentralized informational environment and then produce answers for their own economy that might be wildly effective.
00:19:39.000AI could make centralized government significantly more effective, is sort of the idea here.
00:19:42.000So, that is why controversy, as I mentioned earlier, has broken out around NVIDIA and the United States lifting its restrictions on chip sales to China with regard to NVIDIA.
00:19:52.000But it is worth noting that the China-specific AI chip is known as the H20.
00:19:57.000That, in fact, is a significantly less powerful chip than the chip that's being used in the United States, known as the H100.
00:20:04.000Howard Luttnick, the commerce secretary, said that China was trying to copy our technology.
00:20:09.000And in the race for AI supremacy, they're behind us, but they're working with the central government out to get us.
00:20:15.000Junsen Huang had suggested that selling chips to China is vital to NVIDIA's future because the country is home to 50% of the world's AI developers.
00:20:23.000And China also spends more on chips than any other market in the world.
00:20:26.000So he's saying it's going to help NVIDIA.
00:20:28.000Okay, but that still means that there isn't national security threat.
00:20:32.000The idea here is make China dependent on the H-20, which is a less powerful chip, but more powerful than anything China has, but less powerful than anything the United States is currently using.
00:20:42.000I could certainly hear arguments both ways on this.
00:20:44.000Meanwhile, as we say, the economy is sort of holding steady at this point.
00:20:50.000President Trump should stop messing around with it.
00:20:52.000President Trump should stop sticking his fingers in the pie with regard to the economy at this point.
00:20:57.000That is why when the president is railing against Jerome Powell and saying that he should lower the rates, most people who are investors just want everything to be copacetic.
00:21:06.000They just want everything to be left alone.
00:21:08.000Some predictability in the markets would be great because if there is predictability, I know what the environment is next month, next year.
00:21:13.000That means it's easier for me to invest my money mid to long term.
00:21:16.000Here's the president going after Jerome Powell again.
00:21:24.000So what you should do is lower the rate.
00:21:26.000The Fed should lower the rate immediately.
00:21:30.000Well, this is something that Jamie Diamond of J.P. Morgan is pointing out is actually a bad economic idea.
00:21:38.000He said, I think the independence of the Fed is absolutely critical.
00:21:41.000He said, playing around with the Fed can have adverse consequences, the absolute opposite of what you might actually be hoping for.
00:21:46.000And Diamond, of course, is somewhat allied with the President of the United States in terms of his deregulatory attitude.
00:21:53.000And as per Jamie Dimon, who correctly suggested the president should not fire Jerome Powell, President Trump has now come out and said he's not going to fire Jerome Powell.
00:21:59.000Again, Scott Besson being correct about this.
00:22:02.000Do you have plans or if you're back considering firing Jerome Powell?
00:22:08.000What's your justification if you're thinking about this to do this?
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00:26:21.000So I want to start by asking about your sort of take on the broader economy right now.
00:26:27.000There's a lot of roiling undercurrents regarding inflation.
00:26:30.000It seems like job growth has slowed, but the investment community seems to still think that the trajectory is upward.
00:26:37.000Where do you think things are right now?
00:26:40.000Things are a bit weaker than they had been in terms of growth.
00:26:44.000It looks like it'll be one to one and a half percent in the first half of this year as opposed to the two and a half percent we had last year.
00:26:52.000And things are a bit higher in terms of inflation.
00:26:54.000The inflation rate is edging towards 3%.
00:26:57.000I think it's likely to go above 3% as more of the tariffs kick in.
00:27:03.000Prior to this, we were on track to 2%, which is what the Fed wants.
00:27:06.000So nothing dramatic, no dramatic recessions, no dramatic hyperinflations, but things moving in a meaningfully wrong direction.
00:27:18.000So when we talk about the tariffs and the impact of the tariffs, obviously you're starting to see that priced in now.
00:27:22.000There seems to be this sort of bipartisan addiction to the idea that the laws of economics don't apply.
00:27:27.000We saw it during the Biden administration with regard to massive spending and modern monetary theory and this sort of magical thinking that we could continue to endlessly spend and this would have no impact on inflation at any point.
00:27:39.000And then, of course, that was proved false.
00:27:41.000And now Americans seem to be broadly engaged in the magical thinking that we can endlessly spend, go into endless debt, and this will never have any sort of long-term impact on either growth or inflation or mandate massive increases on taxes.
00:27:55.000Now, obviously, you're part of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisors.
00:27:58.000There's been sort of a shift now in the tone of a lot of people on both the left and the right with regard to the danger of the national debt.
00:28:21.000But then he continued to give away, for example, hundreds of billions of dollars in student loan relief in 2022 when inflation was raging.
00:28:29.000And by the way, it wasn't even obviously legal to do something like that.
00:28:34.000So we entered this year with a deficit relative to the size of our economy larger than any time in our history, except World War II, the financial crisis, and COVID.
00:28:46.000Now the Republicans just passed a law and Donald Trump signed it that's going to take Joe Biden's deficit and either keep it the same or make it even a bit larger.
00:28:56.000And, you know, even less reason for that now.
00:29:01.000When we talk about that and the big beautiful bill, I think one of my objections is here, there's sort of the hypocrisy objection, which is many of the same people who are happy to spend two years ago are suddenly very upset about spending today.
00:29:11.000And that's sort of the usual in politics is that the parties flip positions with regard to spending when they're the ones who are in control of the wallet.
00:29:17.000At the same time, it seems to me that the reality is that it really isn't even, and I don't mean to put our politicians off the hook here because I think that many of them are terrible.
00:29:25.000The American people are not prepared for the kinds of things that are going to be necessary in order to actually bring our national debt under control.
00:29:32.000The American people are not willing to make the sorts of changes to their long-term Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid programs that would be necessary in order to put us on a fiscally sustainable track.
00:29:42.000And unless you're willing to put in place high tax rates for everyone above the very lowest income earners in the United States, you're not going to tax your way out of this.
00:29:50.000And so it seems to me that we are cruising for a bruising long term and that the American people might just have to fly over the fiscal cliff like Thelma and Louise before we realize that austerity measures are necessary to restructure some of these entitlement programs.
00:30:06.000It's not something as an economist, I would recommend.
00:30:09.000But one way that countries get their fiscal house in order is people stop lending to them at a reasonable interest rate.
00:30:15.000They have some sort of mini economic crisis and that forces them to act.
00:30:20.000And that's happened in countries around the world for centuries.
00:30:25.000The better way to deal with this, and I'm not predicting this, it'll happen, is both Social Security and Medicare run out of money less than a decade from now.
00:30:35.000The last time this happened was Social Security, the two parties got together, Ronald Reagan and then representing the Democrats in Congress, Tip O'Neill, they did a bipartisan Social Security reform.
00:30:46.000It added about 60 years to the life of Social Security.
00:30:50.000And to me, that's the model to do again.
00:30:52.000So I'd much rather it be an accounting event that forces action rather than an actual market event, which is genuinely costly, that forces action.
00:31:03.000And that Social Security trust fund running out, that's a good accounting event to force action.
00:31:10.000You know, one of the things that I think is so astonishing about the way our politics does work is that the minute anyone starts suggesting any of these solutions, they're immediately demagogued.
00:31:17.000I mean, truly demagogued in a very serious way.
00:31:19.000I'm old enough to remember when George W. Bush was proposing that our social security accounts essentially be turned into health savings accounts.
00:31:25.000And if we had actually done that at the time, it would have done an awful lot toward changing the structure of social security in a fiscally positive way, because of course, we would have tied what we were putting into social security to the markets, which have now risen multiple fold and would have probably risen more if we had had that much money flowing into the markets at the time via those sorts of accounts.
00:31:43.000He was demagogued as killing grandma, even though he was talking about changing the system mainly for people who were 40 years old at the time.
00:31:50.000This is why I fear that the possibility of a sort of bipartisan solution here, absent some real economic spur, is really, really low.
00:31:59.000The politics just don't match up with what the economics suggests need to be done.
00:32:04.000Yeah, look, I mean, we just saw the Republican Party unwilling to touch Social Security and Medicare.
00:32:14.000They would have been completely demagogued by the Democrats if they had.
00:32:18.000But in another sense, I do blame them.
00:32:20.000Those are the two biggest government spending programs.
00:32:22.000And if you claim to care about government spending or you claim to care about the debt, to take those off the table, you're taking Off the table, an awful lot of how to solve it.
00:32:35.000Well, you know, one thing could be, you know, I'm in favor of the Republicans going on a death march and just, you know, being kamikazes and making whatever steps in those programs and losing the next election.
00:32:47.000Another choice would be to do things together.
00:32:50.000And by the way, that means you don't get everything.
00:32:52.000Ben, if you and I sat down to reform Social Security, I'd come in wanting to do more of it with tax increases than benefit cuts.
00:32:58.000You'd probably come in wanting more benefit cuts than tax increases.
00:33:03.000We'd have to find something in the middle there.
00:33:06.000So people do need to be willing to give up some of what they want.
00:33:10.000But it really is a hard thing to do all on your own unless you want to commit suicide.
00:33:16.000So meanwhile, it seems to be that both parties are relying on a bit of an economic moonshot in AI.
00:33:22.000The idea seems to be that our GDP growth is going to be somewhere between what the Obiden administration was suggesting actually was going to be somewhere between 1% and 2% for the next 10 years or so, which actually is relatively low growth.
00:33:33.000That was their projection and sort of their optimistic scenario.
00:33:36.000Right now, the Trump administration came in trying to say we're going to get 3%, 4% GDP growth.
00:33:40.000As you say, it is coming in lower partially as a result of the ballast that the tariffs are putting on the economy right now.
00:33:46.000But everybody seems to be putting an awful lot of faith in the productivity jumps that are going to occur because of AI.
00:33:51.000Billions and billions of dollars are being poured into AI right now.
00:33:54.000Beating the Chinese, obviously, is a huge factor in this.
00:33:57.000But part of it is also the idea that worker productivity is going to go up with AI.
00:34:02.000It's not going to eliminate large swaths of the jobs market.
00:34:05.000It seems to me that there are a few problems with this theory.
00:34:08.000One is that the disconnect between the use of AI on a wide scale and what AI can do is going to take a while to bleed into the market the same way that the internet had to bleed into the market.
00:34:17.000Back in 1999, 2000, when pets.com was valued at higher than the moon, the kind of problem was that, of course, pets.com was not worth all of that.
00:34:26.000And there had to be a winnowing in the internet market before the internet really could increase worker productivity in a very, very serious way.
00:34:32.000It seems to me there's going to be a delay effect here, even if AI does what people say it's going to do.
00:34:36.000And second, there's going to be some pretty major social transitions that take place around AI.
00:34:40.000And underestimating that, I think, would be a mistake, both politically and economically.
00:35:03.000But to me, that feels like the very, very, very good case scenario.
00:35:07.000And you don't want to plan your entire country around the very, very good case scenario.
00:35:12.000You want to plan around the central, maybe even want to plan around actually the bad scenario and make sure that what you're doing works out in the bad scenario.
00:35:22.000And the reason why I think that central scenario and the bad scenario is so low is two of the reasons you just said.
00:35:29.000It'll take a while to figure this out, a while for it to disperse throughout the economy, that there'll be some social reactions.
00:35:37.000It also is the case that economically you would predict if AI is very successful, you'd probably end up with higher interest rates as a result because it would increase economic demand, increase productivity that tends to be associated with higher interest rates.
00:35:51.000And so our fiscal sustainability would be helped by the higher growth, but some of that, not all, but some of it would be potentially offset by the higher interest rates that would come with that higher growth.
00:36:04.000So back on the debt for a second, because obviously that is sort of the giant elephant in the room that both parties have an interest in ignoring until it stomps on everybody.
00:36:12.000But when we look at the debt, one of the arguments made is that the American dollar is still the best bet on the block, that in the end, the American government is still the best bet.
00:36:19.000The American economy is still the best bet.
00:36:21.000And so the possibility that people will stop buying our bonds, they don't really have an alternative, that we're still, comparatively speaking, the tallest short person, even if we start to really screw our economy with the amount of debt that we've created for it.
00:37:35.000I don't know what the odds of that are.
00:37:37.000We're in an unprecedented place for our country.
00:37:40.000We haven't seen things like this before in history.
00:37:43.000So there's not really any basis for saying.
00:37:46.000We've seen countries with lower debt levels go into crises because people just lost faith in them.
00:37:52.000We've seen countries with higher debt levels avoid crises.
00:37:55.000So all I can tell you on that crisis risk is it's higher than it should be, and it is a possibility.
00:38:02.000But what I'm certain about is that we are going to have at least modestly higher interest rates in a way that's harmful for investment and harmful for homeowners.
00:38:12.000Well, that's Jason Furman, professor of economics at Harvard University.
00:38:15.000Professor Ruley, thank you so much for your time.
00:38:21.000Meanwhile, with regard to Ukraine, President Trump has authorized NATO to essentially buy on behalf of Ukraine a bunch of American weapons.
00:38:30.000And that makes perfect sense considering that Vladimir Putin is not stopping anytime soon.
00:38:35.000According to the New York Post, Russia launched further brutal drone attacks on Ukraine overnight on Monday, wounding a 14-year-old girl and deliberately targeting a university in a stunning act of rebellion against President Trump's threats of fresh sanctions and weapons deliveries to Ukraine.
00:38:47.000Five killed, at least 43 injured in attacks across Ukraine, according to the Kyiv Independent.
00:39:05.000And the reason that I changed my mind is because Melania kept pointing out to me that every time I would say I had a great conversation with Vladimir Putin, she would say, cool, cool.
00:41:06.000The point being, if the most powerful person on the planet is telling you with the most powerful military that things might go wildly wrong for you if you do this thing, you're not going to do it.
00:41:16.000I like President Trump's approach to this.
00:41:18.000I always have liked President Trump's approach to this.
00:41:20.000Here he was saying, no, no, no, I didn't tell Vladimir Zelensky to bomb Moscow or anything.
00:41:33.000Okay, so again, this is not a bad approach.
00:41:37.000I will say, again, the president is at odds with some of the people who thought that they were somehow the founders of MAGA, the creators of MAGA, the people who get to direct MAGA.
00:41:49.000As I've said on the program before, I've had many disagreements with President Trump and the things that he has done as presidents of the United States.
00:41:55.000I'm not shy when I disagree with President Trump.
00:41:57.000I criticize his tariffs on this program and his comments about the Fed moments ago, as you may have noticed.
00:42:03.000However, I have also never claimed that I'm the leader of the movement he built because that's absurd.
00:42:07.000He, of course, is the creator of MAGA.
00:42:09.000He is the one who gets to define what MAGA is.
00:42:12.000One of the people who can't seem to get this through her head is Marjorie Taylor Greene, the once obscure congresswoman from Georgia, who basically is famous because President Trump and others in his circle sort of plucked her out of obscurity and gave her a bunch more credit than she does.
00:42:26.000And also because the left decided that they were going to attack her.
00:42:28.000And we have an incredibly reactionary politics in which if the left attacks somebody, the right immediately rushes to make that person famous.
00:42:35.000A dynamic that I find actually stunningly useless.
00:42:38.000In any case, Marjorie Taylor Greene is now criticizing President Trump.
00:42:43.000She said, by now, the neocons and establishment Republicans have hijacked MAGA.
00:42:47.000President Trump should have some words for her, honestly.
00:42:50.000As a reminder, in September 2023, I forced a separate vote on the 300 million in the DOD appropries for Ukraine.
00:43:38.000I understand that your bizarre speculation about space lasers may make you think that you are the leader of the MAGA movement.
00:43:45.000I'm just wondering what evidence you have that that is the case, particularly given the fact that Republicans now widely support the president's decisions on this particular matter.
00:43:56.000Echelon Insights poll came out yesterday.
00:43:59.000A new opinion poll on whether President Trump should send U.S. weapons system to Ukraine.
00:44:25.000The same has held true, of course, in the Middle East, where you have a bunch of people on the sort of pseudo-MAGA right.
00:44:32.000And I call them pseudo-MAGA, not because they're not supporters of the Trump administration or haven't been in the past, but because if you claim that you are the definer of MAGA and the president is not, you have made a category error.
00:44:42.000A lot of those people, very critical of the president for striking Iran's nuclear program in what, again, I will aver is the single most courageous and effective American foreign policy action of my lifetime.
00:44:54.000A single B-2 sordie that threw back the Iranian nuclear program by years at the very least, that cost zero American casualties in which Israel did all the heavy lifting for clearing the aerial pathways.
00:45:09.000And somehow that was going to lead to World War III involving China, Iran, somehow Brazil and India, among other countries, according to these foreign policy geniuses, the pseudo-maga crowd.
00:45:20.000Well, President Trump was right on that as well.
00:45:22.000Iran is about to face stiff new sanctions, not just from the United States, by the way, but also from Europe.
00:45:28.000According to Axios, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the foreign ministers of France, Germany, and the UK agreed in a phone call on Monday to set the end of August as the de facto deadline for reaching a nuclear deal with Iran.
00:45:39.000If no deal is reached by that deadline, the three European powers plan to trigger that snapback mechanism that automatically reimposes all UN Security Council sanctions that were lifted under the original Barack Obama terrible deal.
00:45:51.000The deal that, as President Trump said, was the worst deal in human history.
00:45:56.000That snapback provision will expire in October.
00:45:58.000The process of activating snapback takes 30 days.
00:46:01.000The Europeans want to conclude the process before Russia assumes the UN Security Council presidency in October, which, by the way, again, I really hope if we're going to talk about audacious moves by the Trump administration, completely defunding and destroying the United Nations would be an excellent move.
00:46:14.000If we're going to talk about audacious moves, I've said this for a long time.
00:46:17.000We should exit the UN, tell them to find new ground, use the eminent domain to take over that building, destroy it and build a Trump Tower.
00:46:24.000I frankly don't care what happens after we salt the earth beneath the UN.
00:46:27.000The UN is a garbage organization and it always has been.
00:46:31.000But beyond that, obviously the president is taking strong action against the Iranian regime.
00:46:37.000They see it as leverage in the talks with Iran to activate that snapback.
00:46:42.000And of course, President Trump is very frustrated that Iran isn't coming to the table because they're being idiots.
00:46:46.000And they certainly should if they hope not to be hit with further economic sanctions.
00:46:51.000By the way, once again, I will point out that for all of those who suggest that this was somehow a sort of wildly unpopular move, what President Trump did in Iran, that is not even remotely true.
00:47:02.000There is zero evidence that that is the case, particularly among Republicans, particularly among Republicans.
00:47:08.000So on the polling, 57% of Americans say that the bombing by the United States was justified.
00:47:40.000So just to get this straight, the pseudo-MAGA crowd who think that they know better than the presidents of the United States what MAGA policy should be on Ukraine and Iran.
00:47:49.000Among MAGA voters, only 22% support them on the Ukraine thing and 3% support them on the Iran thing.
00:47:56.000And yet somehow they believe that they are the definers of the Trump coalition in some way, which is frankly delusional.
00:48:04.000I mean, like on every level, delusional.
00:48:06.000And by the way, the MAGA coalition is still winning.
00:48:09.000Harry Enton over at CNN is spelling out the fact that Democrats, despite the past track record of midterm elections going poorly for the party in power, actually Democrats have some really big problems in the upcoming 2026 elections.
00:48:44.000How about 2005 on the generic congressional ballot?
00:48:46.000Behind, excuse me, ahead by seven points, ahead by seven points.
00:48:49.000And now they're only ahead by two points.
00:48:51.000Their lead is less than half, less than half of where it was in either 2017 or 2005 in July of those years, the year before the midterm election.
00:49:01.000Yes, Donald Trump may be unpopular, but Democrats have not come anywhere close to sealing the deal at this particular point.
00:49:09.000Okay, so again, that shows that Trump is actually more successful than his detractors are giving him credit for.
00:49:16.000Okay, all of this is now culminating in, of course, more controversy over the Jeffrey Epstein case.
00:49:20.000So President Trump came out today and he said, listen, Pam Botany should release whatever she thinks is credible.
00:49:26.000Like the DOJ and the FBI, they've come to a conclusion.
00:49:28.000She should be transparent and remove whatever she, and she should remove whatever is not credible and then release whatever is credible.
00:49:34.000She's given us just a very quick briefing.
00:49:38.000And in terms of the credibility of the different things that they've seen, and I would say that, you know, these files were made up by Comey.
00:50:04.000Whatever she thinks is credible, she should release.
00:50:07.000Yeah, that last line is the one that matters.
00:50:09.000As far as the Comey and the Obama, I assume what he means here is that Jeffrey Epstein was prosecuted in 2019, and he went to jail in 2019, and then he ended up committing suicide in 2019 by the available medical reports and the conclusions of the FBI and the DOJ.
00:50:23.000I assume he means here that Comey and Obama, that many of the files about Jeffrey Epstein were originally compiled under them.
00:50:30.000That's the only way I can make sense of that particular thing that he is saying.
00:50:33.000He doubled down on this today on Truth Social as well.
00:50:36.000He says the radical left Democrats have hit paydered again, just like with the fake and fully discredited Steele dossier, the lying 51 intelligence agents, the laptop from hell, which the Dems swore had come from Russia.
00:50:46.000No, it came from Hunter Biden's bathroom.
00:50:48.000And even the Russia, Russia, Russia, Russia scam itself, a totally fake and made-up story used in order to hide crooked Hillary Clinton's big laws in the 2016 presidential election.
00:50:56.000These scams and hoaxes are all the Democrats are good at.
00:51:15.000They haven't learned their lesson and probably never will, even after being conned by the lunatic left for eight long years.
00:51:19.000And here, I assume, he is talking about the Democratic theory that Jeffrey Epstein had files on President Trump, and that is what is leading President Trump to do a cover-up or something like that.
00:51:29.000He says, I have had more success in six months than perhaps any president in our country's history.
00:51:33.000And all these people want to talk about with strong prodding by the fake news and the success starved is the Jeffrey Epstein hoax.
00:51:38.000Let these weaklings continue forward and do the Democrats' work.
00:51:41.000Don't even think about talking of our incredible and unprecedented success because I don't want their support anymore.
00:51:46.000Thank you for your attention to this matter.
00:51:49.000And there he's basically saying, if you feel like you want to hang out in the fever swamps on this sort of stuff, you can.
00:51:54.000But just to recognize that you are not part of the movement that is actually achieving victories at this point.
00:52:00.000And you can understand President Trump's frustration.
00:52:02.000He's had a wildly successful month on pretty much every available score.
00:52:06.000And then the DOJ and the FBI come out with this joint statement, which lacked transparency.
00:52:11.000Presumably, the reason he is saying that Pamboni should release more files or whatever is unredacted or whatever, whatever is credible, is because he wants to quiet people who are suggesting that there is some sort of massive ongoing cover-up of all of this.
00:52:23.000But President Trump has been saying for actually a shockingly long time that there's a lot of phony stuff in the Epstein files, by which he means there's a bunch of non-credible accusation that was found by the intelligence agencies to be non-credible.
00:52:38.000Would you declassify the Epstein files?
00:52:43.000I think that less so because, you know, you don't know, you don't want to affect people's lives if it's phony stuff in there because there's a lot of phony stuff with that whole world.
00:52:54.000Again, that was President Trump saying that a while ago.
00:53:29.000I don't know that she was specific about a list or whatever, but she needs to come forward and explain that to everybody.
00:53:37.000I would assume that Pam Bondi will do that.
00:53:39.000And as I've been saying since the beginning, I think that she should do that.
00:53:42.000Alan Dershowitz, who is a lawyer for Jeffrey Epstein, he has a piece of the Wall Street Journal trying to explain what he says is going on.
00:53:48.000And he was closer to that case than I think pretty much anybody.
00:53:53.000All the people who put their names on that DOJ FBI memo are people who went in believing and promulgating the idea that there was some sort of deep Jeffrey Epstein scam involving third parties.
00:54:05.000Again, I think we ought to tease out the various theories here.
00:54:07.000And if you want to listen to last week's show about this, I did a full-scale episode teasing out the various theories, what happened with Jeffrey Epstein, who is involved, who is not, what evidence there is for all of that.
00:54:15.000We did like a full deep dive on this last week on the program.
00:54:18.000I urge you to go listen to that episode again if you're looking for clarity about what the various accusations really are.
00:54:23.000But Alan Dershowitz says, I was Jeffrey Epstein's lawyer.
00:54:25.000He writes this in the Wall Street Journal.
00:54:26.000I know the facts, some of which I can't disclose because it is privileged or subject to court-imposed sealing orders.
00:54:32.000But what I can disclose makes several important things clear.
00:54:44.000They don't include any current office holders.
00:54:46.000We don't know whether the accusations are true.
00:54:49.000Now, again, that line is pretty important.
00:54:50.000We don't know whether the accusations are true because the FBI and DOJ have a general policy that they don't air non-credible accusations or accusations they don't consider credible that have been unchecked by the media, for example, or unchecked by their intelligence agents.
00:55:05.000The courts have also sealed negative information about some of the accusers to protect them.
00:55:09.000Neither the Justice Department nor private defense lawyers are free to disregard court sealing orders.
00:55:13.000The media can and should petition the courts for the release of all names and information so the public can draw its own conclusions.
00:55:18.000There's also been speculation about incriminating videos taken by hidden cameras in Epstein's guest bedrooms, writes Dershowitz.
00:55:24.000There are videotapes, but they are of public areas of his Palm Beach, Florida home.
00:55:27.000Epstein reported the theft of money and a licensed firearm from a drawer in his living room, so the police installed the video camera.
00:55:33.000I'm not aware of video cameras in guest bedrooms.
00:55:35.000So again, the accusation has been that there are all sorts of tapes of Epstein clients, people he was associated with, and to whom he was trafficking, allegedly, young girls, and they were in bedrooms together, and he had tapes with that.
00:55:48.000That's what he was blackmailing them with.
00:55:49.000Epstein's lawyer, Dershowitz, is saying there's none of that.
00:56:26.000It is clear from the evidence that Epstein committed suicide, says Dershowitz.
00:56:29.000What isn't clear is whether he was assisted by jail personnel.
00:56:32.000That seems likely to me based on the evidence of allegedly broken cameras, transfer of his cellmate, and the absence of guards during relevant time periods.
00:56:38.000Okay, now that is like a theory that is creditable, right?
00:56:43.000You could make the theory that Epstein killed himself, but that basically all the limitations that would have stopped him from killing himself were made available to him, right?
00:56:52.000All those limitations were blown out of the water.
00:57:38.000On the other side, people saying he was working for an intelligence agency include the highly non-credible source, Ari Bemenachem, who claims that he was working for Mossad during a period where he almost certainly was not working for Mossad and who has put forward a bunch of other specious theories before.
00:57:54.000And a secondhand comment supposedly made to Vicki Ward of The Daily Beast from Alex Acosta, the original prosecutor in the Epstein state-based case, who ended up denying that he ever made that comment.
00:58:06.000So here on this hand, you have a bunch of very credible sources saying a thing.
00:58:11.000And then on this hand, you have vague suspicion and a bunch of totally non-credible sources.
00:58:16.000And by a bunch of, I really mean kind of one.
00:58:21.000And you can wait between those and make your own decision about which you think is more plausible.
00:58:26.000Says Dershowitz, he wasn't satisfied with the so-called sweetheart deal he got, which required Him to spend one and a half years in a local jail and register as a sex offender.
00:58:33.000My sources in Israel have confirmed to me he had no connection to Israeli intelligence.
00:58:36.000That false story, recently peddled by Tucker Carlson, probably emanated from credible allegations that Robert Maxwell, father of Epstein's former girlfriend, Delaine Maxwell, worked with the Mossad.
00:58:45.000Conspiracy stories attract readers, viewers, and listeners.
00:58:48.000They are also fodder for political attacks.
00:58:50.000The Epstein case has generated more than its share of such theories.
00:58:52.000There's nothing more annoying to gossip mongers than when stubborn facts, or the absence of facts, get in the way of a juicy theory.
00:58:58.000Sorry to disappoint you, but there is really nothing much to see here beyond what has already been disclosed.
00:59:04.000And here is sort of the problem with the situation as it currently stands, is that nothing anyone says at this point is going to be able to disabuse people of the theory they have constructed in their own head.
00:59:13.000Evidence is of no consequence at this point in time.
00:59:23.000I think is what Dan Bongino was saying, and he was correctly pissed off about it, especially given the retailing of the idea that there was much more evidence out there than by Pam Bondi than she actually was able to substantiate.
00:59:35.000However, once the transparency happens, once there is more released, once Pam Bondi goes out there and answers all the questions, once Dan Bongino is allowed to speak and all the rest, at that point, do you think any of the people who currently find themselves dissatisfied are going to suddenly be satisfied?
00:59:49.000If the answer is no, then we should examine why, why new evidence or credible people saying credible things is not as important as the speculative.
00:59:57.000And you will notice the very large crossover in this category between many of the people who are in the sort of the most passionate pseudo-maga category and the people who are claiming a cover-up here.
01:00:10.000There is a very large crossover, and we ought to ask ourselves why that is.
01:00:13.000Meanwhile, Democrats, of course, are being as absolutely cynical as possible about this.
01:00:19.000They who had no interest in the Epstein case until literally this week are suddenly claiming that it's a giant cover-up by the Trump administration.
01:00:26.000Representative Hank Johnson, last seen claiming that the island of Guam was going to tip over because it had too many people, actually created a song about the Epstein scandal.
01:00:35.000And it's not a good song, I will say that.
01:02:06.000We need to get the information right now.
01:02:09.000His MAGA base is demanding a release of all of this information, and Democrats agree with Donald Trump's MAGA base.
01:02:21.000So I'm just going to point out that if Ed Markey is agreeing with the MAGA base, then whenever people like Ed Markey or AOC or Elizabeth Warren find themselves in agreement with you, you might want to take a breath.
01:02:32.000Just take a backpedal for just a second.
01:02:34.000All righty, folks, the show is continuing for our members right now.
01:02:37.000We'll get into action in the Middle East, particularly in Syria, where things are getting quite complicated.
01:02:41.000Remember, in order to watch, you have to be a member.
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