Tonight's debate is the most important presidential debate of our lifetime, and it's happening live on The Daily Wire, where we have a live pre-show happening live. Join Matt, Michael, Andrew, and Jeremy as they give their expert analysis and unfiltered commentary on the upcoming presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Today's episode features: - Why Joe Biden needs to win tonight's debate - Why Donald Trump is actually gaining ground on Joe Biden - Who needs the debate the most: Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton? - What s going on with Joe Biden's campaign - How to win the debate - What to watch for in the aftermath of the debate and much, much more! See you there, you're going to want to be there! - Subscribe to Daily Wire: A Daily Wire Backstage - Subscribe, Like, and Share to stay up to date on all things going on in politics, pop culture, and pop culture. Subscribe to our new podcast CRITIQUE: The Political Insider Podcast! Subscribe on Apple Podcasts Subscribe on iTunes Learn more about your ad choices. Rate, review, and become a supporter of our new sponsor, Caff Monster Energy Drink or any other beverage recommendation you get from the App Store or Google Play Music by clicking the linktr.ee/ThePoliticalAdvertisers Subscribe and Share the Polls! We'll be giving out $5 to our listeners get 10% off your first month and receive $5 off their first month freebie of the month and $10 off your choice of a month, and we'll get an ad discount when you sign up for a month and get a discount of $50 or more gets two months get $4 VIP membership gets $4 or more, and they get $5 or more get VIP access to VIP access gets a VIP discount when they shopUSA gets a promo code, they'll get a VIP membership offer startship startship offer, and more gets VIP access startship and access gets $5 and they can access VIP access and access all of your choice gets $24 or they can choose VIP access, they can shop $4, they get VIP discount, they also get $6 or they'll receive $4/place they're VIP access only they'll become VIP access? Learn more like that starts and they'll also get access to all of these things they're promo code they'll have access to the VIP discount?
00:00:31.000It is not enough, actually, for Joe Biden to just remain alive.
00:00:35.000Because if all of the priors going into this debate remain after the debate, questions about his health, questions about his fitness, questions about his policy, if the focus is on Joe Biden after this debate, Joe Biden is going to lose.
00:00:49.000He needs a radical change in the direction of this electoral cycle in order for him to win.
00:00:53.000So just a week ago, there was a lot of talk about how maybe Joe Biden had regained momentum.
00:01:05.000And what they're showing is that Donald Trump is actually pulling away.
00:01:09.000This is a disaster area for Joe Biden.
00:01:12.000Donald Trump now has the largest lead in the RealClearPolitics national average that he has had in three months.
00:01:17.000He is up by nearly two points in that RealClearPolitics national average.
00:01:21.000Not just that, we have a couple of national polls that are mirroring one another.
00:01:24.000The New York Times is so freaked out about this, because they're one of the polls, that they are trying to determine whether they're an outlier poll or not.
00:01:31.000There are certain polls in every cycle that are a little bit different than all the other polls, and sometimes the outliers are right.
00:01:36.000It's not really an outlier when the same couple of days you release your poll, there's another poll from Quinnipiac that mirrors your poll.
00:01:43.000So Quinnipiac has been a very pro-Biden poll throughout this entire electoral process.
00:01:48.000According to Quinnipiac, Trump is now at 49.
00:01:51.000If you're looking at registered voters, including leaders, Biden is at just 45.
00:01:57.000Trump currently has a 10-point advantage with independents.
00:02:01.000Now, that means that Joe Biden is going to lose.
00:02:03.000If those numbers are correct, Joe Biden is going to lose this election.
00:02:06.000Quinnipiac has shown Biden tied or leading virtually the entire cycle.
00:02:11.000It turns out that about 73% of respondents in the Quinnipiac poll say they're going to watch the debate tonight, which means that Joe Biden needs a strong showing.
00:02:19.000He particularly needs a strong showing because there is a Times-Siena poll out that shows that Joe Biden is also down four points.
00:02:52.000When you look at the swing states, it's even worse for Joe Biden.
00:02:56.000According to a report from the Washington Post, polling in the swing states shows that more than half of voters in six swing states that Biden narrowly won in 2020 Say that threats to democracy are extremely important to their vote.
00:03:11.000But the problem is that more of those voters actually believe that Trump will handle threats to democracy better than Biden.
00:03:17.000So in other words, the entire Biden message that Donald Trump is a threat to democracy, January 6th, elections and nihilism, that message is totally falling flat.
00:03:25.000Because it turns out that when people look at Joe Biden and they look at his executive actions, which are in fact tyrannical, when they look at him ranting about how he's going to end around the Supreme Court, When they look at the fact that he has used executive agencies to do things like quote-unquote relieve student loan debt or attempt to cram down vaccine mandates on 80 million Americans, they don't think that Joe Biden is standing for democracy.
00:03:47.000According to the Washington Post, the results offer troubling indicators for Biden, who needs voters who may be unenthusiastic about his candidacy to decide they must reject Trump to preserve America's system of representative government.
00:03:58.000Justin Guest, professor of policy and government at George Mason University, says many Americans don't recognize Biden's custodianship of our democracy.
00:04:08.000The polls surveyed the views of over 3,500 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in April and May.
00:04:16.000Of those who were surveyed, about two-thirds of them were classified as deciders.
00:04:21.000Those would be sort of independent voters who have flipped or who do not plan to vote for either Biden or Trump this year.
00:04:26.000And as it turns out, Among all key state voters, 44% say that they believe that Donald Trump would do a better job handling threats to democracy than Joe Biden.
00:04:37.000Only 33% of voters say Biden would do a better job handling threats to democracy than Donald Trump.
00:04:43.000If those poll numbers are anything remotely like accurate, Joe Biden is toast unless he has a magnificent performance tonight in the debate.
00:04:50.000Because that is the tip of the spear of Biden's entire argument.
00:04:54.000It may not even just be the tip of the spear.
00:05:10.000His entire campaign was predicated on his speech at Independence Hall, blood red in the background, where he declared himself the man standing in the breach on behalf of democracy.
00:05:20.000If more Americans in the swing states believe that he is the threat to democracy than Donald Trump, that dude is toast.
00:05:27.000Not only that, look at the crosstabs in this New York Times poll.
00:05:30.000Okay, so the crosstabs, when we refer to those, those are the breakdowns by various age, sex, Racial group in the United States and how they're going to vote.
00:05:42.000Well, folks, Joe Biden's executive branch, they've been involved in every aspect of your life, including, by the way, coordinating with a bunch of social media companies and all the rest.
00:05:51.000This is just one reason I use Express VPN.
00:05:55.000All of these internet companies, they monitor your data.
00:05:57.000And most of them have a backdoor with the federal government.
00:06:00.000And that means that every time you connect to some sort of unencrypted network in cafes, hotels, airports, you're essentially leaving your personal data wide open for hackers, for the government, for anybody else.
00:06:09.000Don't wait for a security breach to happen.
00:06:13.000Your data is not just data, it's valuable information that hackers can make up to $1,000 per person selling on the dark web, which is why you need to protect it with ExpressVPN.
00:06:21.000I love that ExpressVPN creates a secure encrypted tunnel between my device and the internet so hackers can't steal my sensitive data.
00:06:26.000It would take a hacker with a supercomputer over a billion years to get past ExpressVPN's encryption.
00:06:49.000So, here's the question from the New York Times.
00:06:50.000Thinking ahead to the presidential general election, are you almost certain that you will vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote, or not at all likely to vote?
00:06:58.000The reason this matters is because Voter enthusiasm is going to mean an awful lot when it comes to this election.
00:07:03.000If Trump voters are jazzed to go, which we are, and if Biden voters are not jazzed to go, which they are not, Trump is going to walk over Biden.
00:07:13.000Again, the most important statistic that I know of with regard to the 2024 election is going to be voter turnout.
00:07:21.000If you look at total number of votes by presidential election, What you will see, as I've said this many times before, what you will see is that there's an elevation in most presidential elections of perhaps three to five million votes.
00:07:36.000In terms of total numbers of votes cast.
00:07:38.000So for example, 2012, there were about 129 million votes cast.
00:07:40.000In 2016, there were about 136 million votes cast.
00:07:42.000So an increase of about 10 million between 2012 and 2016.
00:07:44.000In 2020, there were 158 million votes cast.
00:07:46.000That's an increase of 22 million votes.
00:09:42.000Hispanic voters, only 62% say they're almost certain or very likely to vote.
00:09:48.000In other words, the demographics, middle-aged white people, that are most likely to vote are demographics that are also most likely to vote Trump.
00:09:56.000That is a massive problem for Joe Biden, a serious problem.
00:10:00.000And then look at the actual numbers here.
00:10:02.000If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for between Biden and Trump?
00:10:07.000This includes leaners, people who say, well, I don't really know, but here's who I'm leaning toward.
00:10:12.000This poll shows that if you include leaners, Donald Trump is up 48 to 42 on Joe Biden, a six point lead, a disastrous result for Joe Biden.
00:10:22.00010% say they don't know or they refuse.
00:10:24.000You figure those are going to split right down the middle.
00:11:30.000By the way, if you take out the leaners, like the people who are certain to vote a particular way, Donald Trump actually wins a plurality of Hispanics.
00:11:49.000According to the Washington Post, Donald Trump is now leading in five of the seven battleground states most likely to determine the outcome of the election.
00:11:55.000And it turns out that in two of the other states, he's basically tied.
00:13:40.000According to Silver, his model is largely the same as the one he built for 538 and used for the 2020 election.
00:13:46.000This is according to Mediaite, but adjusting for turnout dynamics, factoring in the increased relevance of third-party candidates like Robert Kennedy Jr.
00:13:52.000this time around and without some COVID-specific assumptions.
00:13:57.000And his conclusion is that while either candidate could certainly win, the reality is that Donald Trump right now has about a two-thirds chance of winning, according to Nate Silver.
00:14:14.000He points out that in 2012, he said that's a race that looks a lot like this race.
00:14:19.000He says that he thought that when the model was launched, Obama was actually about a 60% favorite.
00:14:25.000In this particular case, Trump is a 66% favorite.
00:14:29.000That doesn't mean for sure he's gonna win.
00:14:30.000Remember that all the models had Hillary Clinton like a 99% favorite in 2016 and then she lost.
00:14:37.000With that said, He says if Biden loses Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, he needs to win all three of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, not just one of them.
00:14:46.000Even though these states are pretty heavily correlated, they aren't perfectly correlated.
00:14:49.000Winning several different correlated bets is still hard.
00:14:53.000These states have significant differences.
00:14:56.000In simulations, Biden wins at least one of the states 54% of the time, but he only wins all three of them, 32% of the simulations.
00:15:03.000Biden also has to hold on to states like New Hampshire and Virginia and New Mexico and Minnesota and Nebraska's second congressional district in the blue wall saves the day scenario.
00:15:12.000That's not quite a sure thing, says Nate Silver, given Biden's mediocre polling elsewhere in the Northeast.
00:15:18.000In the Sunbelt swing states, Biden trails badly.
00:15:21.000So badly that he's out of the normal range of polling error scenarios.
00:15:25.000And he either needs a big polling error or something fundamental to change about the race.
00:15:30.000That's the glass half full view of Biden's perspective in this particular election.
00:15:36.000He says that they have a polls plus model over at 538 Nate Silver.
00:15:40.000The polls plus model incorporates assumptions about incumbency and the economy.
00:15:44.000He says this is slightly better than the polls only forecast, but it would be easier to get carried away.
00:15:49.000He says the fundamentals are not that great for Biden.
00:15:52.000They currently project him to win the popular vote by maybe two to three percentage points.
00:15:56.000That would make this a toss-up race, given Biden's problems in the Electoral College.
00:16:01.000He says the problem is the economy isn't all that good.
00:16:04.000Real GDP grew by 2.5% last year, following 1.9% in 2020.
00:16:07.000It grew at an annualized rate of 1.3% in the first quarter of 2024.
00:16:11.000This is like, okay, but it's below the long-term median growth rate in the United States.
00:16:19.000So, in other words, if you look at the modeling, What it suggests is that Joe Biden is losing this election.
00:16:26.000He is behind in this election, which means that the debate tonight, the onus is weirdly enough on the incumbent.
00:17:30.000If you are the candidate who's going around telling the American people they are delusional and crazy, you're losing the election.
00:17:35.000Here's Biden's co-chair saying the American people have amnesia.
00:17:38.000By the way, Joe Biden's campaign co-chair should not be going around questioning the mental facility of the people who are voting upon him.
00:18:00.000And as I've been talking to communities across the country for the campaign, especially Latino communities, I have reminded them about what we experienced for four years under Trump.
00:18:16.000If you, again, are saying the American people have amnesia, you have a serious problem.
00:18:27.000So what is Joe Biden going to do in the debate tonight?
00:19:17.000It's gonna be the single most important thing he can do tonight is get Joe Biden to talk.
00:19:21.000That is the most important thing that Donald Trump can do tonight.
00:19:23.000You pair that with Donald Trump not looking volatile.
00:19:26.000That is the second most important thing he can do tonight, maybe the most important.
00:19:30.000The perception that Joe Biden wants to leave with the American people is that Donald Trump is too volatile to be president of the United States.
00:19:36.000That is really the character argument that he's making against Trump.
00:19:39.000Because again, he can't run on his record.
00:19:42.000So he's instead going to run on the idea that Donald Trump is a crazy person.
00:19:44.000You can't have a crazy person in office.
00:19:46.000All Donald Trump has to do is look not crazy.
00:19:50.000That is an actual pretty low bar for Donald Trump.
00:19:52.000Because remember, if the fundamentals of the race are the same coming out of the debate as they are going into the debate, Joe Biden is losing.
00:20:18.000The fact that Donald Trump can't jump in and talk over Biden on the mic might actually help Donald Trump.
00:20:25.000Because again, the longer Joe Biden talks and the more you see of Joe Biden fading, the better it is for Donald Trump.
00:20:31.000The lack of the crowd is not going to help Donald Trump, but MSNBC is now trying to make the claim that the debate is stacked against Biden.
00:20:37.000That's how badly they are afraid he's going to lose this debate, which is pretty crazy since again, Joe Biden's team set all the rules, not some of them, all of them.
00:20:49.000That's why this is happening so early.
00:20:50.000Usually you don't get presidential debates until well after the conventions.
00:20:54.000We're doing this in June because Biden is so afraid that he's going to fall over in this debate.
00:21:00.000That he needs months to recover in the polling data.
00:21:03.000Here is MSNBC trying to pre-spin Joe Biden losing.
00:21:07.000They so want to have a different experience than the last debate they had with him or the first debate from the last cycle.
00:21:13.000And ironically, that's the single best debate Biden had, right?
00:21:17.000Because Trump's behavior really sort of almost cemented Biden's lead by that point.
00:21:25.000And it may have done Trump in at that point.
00:21:28.000And now here's the Biden campaign trying to come up with a set of rules to make sure Trump seems more presentable.
00:21:35.000I have to say, when you sort of look at their motivation here, and given the experience they had four years ago, it's a head-scratcher to me that they went so out of their way to try to create an environment that will make Trump seem more presidential.
00:21:54.000The reality is the Democrats wanted to set these rules because they were afraid that Donald Trump would get in a jab at Biden in the middle of the debate that would basically put Biden on the floor.
00:22:04.000They're afraid he's going to sneak in and that Joe Biden would start fumbling his words and Donald Trump would then say, well, there he goes.
00:22:12.000That's what they're really trying to stop.
00:22:13.000That's what they were doing with the mics.
00:22:14.000But, again, the pre-spin shows how afraid the left is of this debate.
00:22:19.000Well, if Joe Biden does, in fact, fall apart on the debate stage tonight, it is possible that Democrats think about switching them out for somebody healthier.
00:22:26.000But how can they tell if that person is healthier?
00:22:29.000It's tough to prioritize your health, especially if you're not sure where to start.
00:22:32.000That's why I'm excited to introduce lumen.
00:22:34.000Lumen is the world's first handheld metabolic coach.
00:22:36.000It's a device that measures your metabolism through your breath.
00:22:39.000All you have to do is breathe into your lumen first thing in the morning, To know what's going on with your metabolism, meaning whether you're burning mostly fat or mostly carbs.
00:22:46.000A few folks around the office have been using Lumen to stay on top of their health goals this summer.
00:24:25.000I think that the anchors are actually going to ask some interesting questions to Joe Biden because, again, this is the most important debate, I think, of any of our lifetimes.
00:24:34.000And what that probably means is that Jake Tapper and Dana Bash do not want to be on the receiving end of a brutal review in which they basically end up the Candy Crowley of 2012.
00:24:43.000You remember Candy Crowley jumped into the middle of a debate between Mitt Romney and Obama that Romney was clearly winning and proceeded to shift the debate by falsely fact-checking Mitt Romney.
00:24:54.000So, you know, I don't think they want that.
00:24:57.000And I think Biden's not going to respond very well to that.
00:25:03.000One is that he's going to keep reminding voters over and over of the fact that Joe Biden is fading and fading badly right now.
00:25:11.000Polling, by the way, shows that voters believe this.
00:25:15.000A poll out from Daily Mail shows that 70% of people want both men screened for pharmaceuticals when they face off during the debate.
00:25:24.000That's not going to happen, obviously, but most Americans are very suspicious that Joe Biden is getting pumped with something in order to get himself ready for all of this.
00:25:32.000Meanwhile, Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House, is now saying that the House is going to sue the DOJ to get the Joe Biden interview audio.
00:25:40.000Which of course makes sense because the more tape you have of Joe Biden in long form, the less with it he looks.
00:25:48.000In fact, the Trump campaign is going to air an ad during the debate on CNN pointing out that Joe Biden is falling down on the job.
00:25:57.000When you think about the Joe Biden you saw in the debate, ask yourself a question.
00:26:02.000Do you think the guy who was defeated by the stairs, got taken down by his bike, lost a fight with his jacket, and regularly gets lost, makes it four more years in the White House?
00:26:14.000And you know who's waiting behind him, right?
00:26:29.000It's accurate and it's vicious, but it's going to assume that Joe Biden has one of these moments.
00:26:34.000And you say, when you see the Joe Biden, you see that.
00:26:35.000So they are very confident that Joe Biden is going to start mumbling over himself.
00:26:39.000Again, I think there's a good possibility that that happens, but the reality is that the more telling tactic that Donald Trump is now using is he is talking up the fact that Joe Biden is dishonest.
00:26:48.000They should treat Biden as though he's a normal debate participant.
00:26:50.000And then if he happens to stumble over himself, which he very well might, Then they can point that out.
00:26:55.000But the reality is that this is not a referendum on Joe Biden's senility.
00:26:59.000This is a referendum on Joe Biden's presidency.
00:27:01.000Well, if Americans look at tonight's debate and they decide to replace Joe Biden with somebody else, now they only have a certain limited number of options.
00:27:09.000But if you're looking to upgrade your business, you need more options than that.
00:27:14.000Whether you're looking to hire somebody who actually understands basic economics or just needs staff that won't spend all day tweeting about their latest woke crusade, ZipRecruiter can help you out.
00:27:21.000Right now, you can try ZipRecruiter for free at ziprecruiter.com slash dailywire.
00:27:58.000ZipRecruiter is indeed the smartest way to hire.
00:28:00.000We've been using ZipRecruiter here at DailyWire ourselves for years.
00:28:02.000Try them out at ZipRecruiter.com slash DailyWire.
00:28:05.000So Trump put out a post yesterday saying Crooked Joe Biden's handlers are loudly and profusely complaining there will be no fact checkers during the debate on Thursday.
00:28:14.000They could not be happier because there's nobody as loose with the truth as Crooked Joe.
00:28:18.000From the 51 fake intelligence agents, to Russia, Russia, Russia, to the fake suckers and losers story he created about our beloved military, to cheating in college and saying he was first in his law school class when he was actually last, to claiming he marched for civil rights, drove trucks, has a 6.2 handicap, he can't hit the golf ball 10 yards but it's a minor detail, and so many more falsehoods, the man is a walking lying machine and a fact checker's dream.
00:28:37.000And then he pondered whether he should start calling him Wyan Joe.
00:28:40.000That's actually going to be, I think, the central setup that Trump has to do at the very beginning.
00:28:45.000He should let the audience just draw the conclusion that Joe Biden is not with it.
00:28:52.000He should treat Joe Biden as though Joe Biden is just as with it as Hillary Clinton was in 2016.
00:28:57.000And then, if the opportunity presents itself, he should simply point to Joe Biden.
00:29:01.000If Joe Biden does, in fact, stumble over himself or mix up the presidents of Mexico and Egypt, then he should just say, Joe, I think what you meant is, or Joe, there you go again.
00:29:11.000Joe, I know you're having a rough time up here, but it's hard to watch you, man.
00:29:16.000If that opportunity presents itself, he should certainly go for it, but here's the thing.
00:29:19.000On policy alone, he can win this debate, and he should win this debate on policy alone.
00:29:28.000It is amazing to me, but to watch politicians who know better suggest that the inflation of the last several years is caused by corporate greed.
00:29:37.000It's such absolute sheer nonsense, and it makes no internal sense.
00:29:42.000Were corporations less greedy in 2018, and then they suddenly became magically greedy in 2021?
00:29:49.000Or maybe it's that inflation is a monetary phenomenon in which too many dollars are following too few goods and services.
00:29:56.000Now the Biden administration is attempting to push around companies.
00:30:00.000According to Axios, quote, companies that announced splashy price reductions can expect public praise from the highest level of government.
00:30:06.000For those that don't, a tax on sky-high profit margins, so-called junk fees, and the like.
00:30:12.000So the Biden administration is now leaking to Axios that they are going to literally attack companies that don't artificially lower prices in time for the election.
00:30:20.000They want corporations to take a corporate hit so that Joe Biden will not slander them publicly.
00:30:27.000They effectively want to blackmail corporate America.
00:30:30.000Now I know that Democrats have done this historically.
00:30:32.000Back during the Great Recession, Barack Obama famously called in a bunch of banking heads and said, I'm the only thing standing between you and the pitchforks, so I need you to kowtow to me, and they basically did.
00:30:41.000Now Joe Biden is doing the same thing.
00:30:43.000It ain't gonna work this time, because you can't lower your profit margins to the point where you are bleeding money.
00:30:48.000Why would they have to, if the economy is going so gung-ho, according to Joe Biden?
00:30:53.000In recent weeks, the administration has applauded Target, Walmart, and other grocery chains for beginning to, quote, answer the president's call to lower prices for household goods.
00:31:00.000In a speech last week, top White House economist Lael Brainard said grocery store margins remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic times.
00:31:08.000Brainard said some grocery stores are answering the president's call and lowering prices on thousands of items.
00:31:12.000This is smart, but corporations have to do more to bring their prices down.
00:31:27.000Why is it that your Inflation Reduction Act did not reduce inflation?
00:31:29.000Joe Biden certainly will cite this ridiculous letter of 16 Nobel Prize winning economists who suggest that Trump is going to increase the inflation rate.
00:31:36.000Trump needs to point out, 13 of those 16 said the Inflation Reduction Act would actually reduce inflation.
00:31:42.000One of them is apparently married to Janet Yellen.
00:33:02.000A message to the families is, of course, our hearts are with them, given their suffering.
00:33:09.000Again, if your heart was really with the people who are suffering, then perhaps you should close the border.
00:33:15.000All Donald Trump has to do is list off the names of a wide variety of people who have been murdered in the past six months by illegal immigrants under Joe Biden's border policy.
00:33:23.000Meanwhile, there was a report from NBC News just this week that there are 50 ISIS-linked people walking around in the United States after being allowed into the country by Joe Biden.
00:33:31.000Mayorkas is trying to deny that report.
00:34:52.000Because we're allowing people to get dumped into our communities who are criminals.
00:34:59.000That is the point that Donald Trump needs to make tonight.
00:35:01.000Again, on policy, on policy, Joe Biden is going to lose this debate, which means that he only wins this debate if Donald Trump really screws up.
00:35:09.000All the pressure is on Biden, which is probably why he's been hiding in a bunker for the last six days being jabbered at by 16 people.
00:35:14.000We'll see how that works out for him since people in stage two of dementia have kind of a tough time with many people in their arena trying to give them advice.
00:35:23.000We'll get to the possibility that if Joe Biden loses this debate, the world gets way more dangerous.
00:36:25.000Even Russia is freaked out by Trump because the reality is That for all the talk among some coteries of the Trump base, that somehow Russia's good and Ukraine is bad, that's not actually Trump's position.
00:36:35.000Trump's position is that he wants to reach an off-ramp between Ukraine and Russia, but he's going to support Ukraine up to the point where that off-ramp can be reached.
00:36:44.000Vladimir Putin does not like the unpredictability of Donald Trump.
00:36:48.000He actually doesn't like it very much, which is why he didn't invade Ukraine while Donald Trump was president.
00:36:52.000He did it while Obama was president in 2014.
00:36:53.000He did it while Biden was president in 2022.
00:36:55.000He didn't do it while Trump was president.
00:36:58.000So what happens if Donald Trump starts to open up a big lead?
00:37:02.000If Donald Trump does well tonight, the lead that he has in the polling data is going to increase by a point or two.
00:37:06.000And suddenly it looks like a five-point Trump lead or a six-point Trump lead among likely voters.
00:37:12.000If that happens, if suddenly Donald Trump looks like he is on the verge of blowing out Joe Biden, he's going to win the swing states, might pick off New Hampshire, might pick off Minnesota.
00:37:20.000Let's say you're an enemy of the United States.
00:37:22.000Then, your timeline gets real short indeed.
00:37:24.000At that point, you're like, I gotta go while the going is good.
00:37:27.000I gotta move while Joe Biden is president.
00:37:29.000And this is, in fact, a problem for the United States.
00:37:33.000The reality is that America's allies, like Israel, Saudi Arabia in the Middle East, Taiwan, that those allies are waiting for Donald Trump to come back into office.
00:37:43.000If Donald Trump had been elected in 2020, there would have been a Saudi agreement with the Israelis in February of 2021 guaranteed.
00:37:54.000October 7th probably would have been forestalled in the first place if Donald Trump had been president of the United States.
00:37:59.000China would be on its much better behavior because they would be afraid that Donald Trump is just crazy enough to defend Taiwan.
00:38:06.000Russia probably would not have gone into Ukraine because they didn't know exactly what Donald Trump was going to do.
00:38:11.000There's something called the madman strategy when it comes to foreign policy and that is be crazy enough that your opponent doesn't want to fight you because you never know what he's going to do and Donald Trump has that one down to a T.
00:38:22.000But what happens if they are now looking at a certain timeline of Joe Biden being defeated and leaving office in January?
00:38:29.000It means you go before Trump enters office.
00:38:31.000It means that if you're Iran, you ratchet up the pressure by unleashing Hezbollah, for example.
00:38:38.000It means that if you're Iran, you start pushing really, really hard to accelerate your nuclear program before Donald Trump enters office and then does something to forestall your nuclear program.
00:38:48.000And by the way, this is exactly what Iran is doing.
00:38:50.000It's not me saying this, this is the New York Times saying this.
00:38:53.000Quote, throughout Iran's presidential campaign and debates, rallies, and speeches, a singular presence has hovered, Donald J. Trump.
00:38:59.000To hear the six candidates tell it, the former president's victory in the 2024 White House race is a foregone conclusion.
00:39:04.000The urgent question facing Iranian voters as they go to the polls on Friday is who is best suited to deal with him.
00:39:52.000I've been worried about this for a while.
00:39:53.000This is also true with regard to China.
00:39:55.000So I said at the very beginning of the year, my out-of-the-box prediction, if this election started to break open after the debates or after the conventions, the possibility of a Chinese blockade on Taiwan becomes incredibly severe.
00:40:07.000Because if they do it when Trump is president, he might do something about it.
00:40:10.000They believe they will be able to wheedle a better deal out of Joe Biden than they will be able to wheedle out of Donald Trump.
00:40:16.000Donald Trump reacts to threat with aggressiveness.
00:40:19.000Joe Biden reacts to threat with cowardice, and they know this.
00:40:23.000So if they have a choice between blockading Taiwan while Biden is president, or blockading Taiwan while Trump is president, and they're already certain that Biden's going to lose, Maybe they go.
00:40:32.000And maybe the reason they're forestalling action right now is because they believe that Biden might still win, and then they have a longer time horizon, they can do what they want with Taiwan.
00:40:38.000But if they see the end of this tunnel coming, and they see the daylight that is the Trump administration coming back in, they might need to do what they do in darkness while Biden is still the president.
00:40:49.000So I think the possibility of significant global conflict radically escalates as the election approaches if Donald Trump is winning.
00:40:59.000That is because the world looks at Joe Biden and they lick their lips.
00:41:02.000America's enemies lick their lips when they see Joe Biden.
00:41:06.000By the way, it's not unprecedented for foreign actors to look at the prospect of future elections and then change their behavior based on the prospect of those future elections.
00:41:15.000So for example, the Viet Cong in 1968, they started to stall negotiations with LBJ because they believed that Richard Nixon might come in and cut them a better deal.
00:41:26.000The same thing happened in 2012 with regard to Russia.
00:41:29.000You remember, Barack Obama sitting with Dmitry Medvedev and telling him, I'll have more flexibility after the election if you forestall action before the election.
00:41:44.000He waited until Barack Obama basically handed him control of Syria, essentially handed him control of Crimea and the Donbass region in 2014.
00:41:55.000They're constantly gaming for moves by opposing powers.
00:41:59.000So, if Joe Biden loses tonight, and loses badly, if he stumbles over his words, the possibility of a serious national catastrophe being visited upon the United States grow in the period between now and when he leaves office.
00:42:15.000Which by the way means that he loses really big.
00:42:17.000Because if any of those things happen, while Joe Biden is president, let's say that China blockades Taiwan, while Joe Biden is president, that dude loses by 15 points.
00:42:24.000Because the economic consequences of such a blockade, which could only be forestalled by a show of strength and will.
00:42:33.000Now this is the dirty secret of Joe Biden's cowardice.
00:42:34.000Joe Biden's cowardice makes conflict so much more likely.
00:42:40.000If Joe Biden had said to Israel, go fast, go hard, finish the job, get back as many hostages as you can, take out Hamas, do it fast, and then set up some sort of regime that allows for your security and the re-education of the Palestinian population away from their indoctrinated hatred of Jews.
00:42:55.000If he had said that, go fast, go hard, this thing would already be over.
00:42:58.000Hezbollah would not be threatening Israel's northern border.
00:43:00.000It turns out that stalwartness aggressive action on the foreign stage when it comes to small activities like historically the Hamas war is.
00:43:10.000That forestalls the possibility of future war, but Joe Biden is such a rube and a coward when it comes to foreign policy that he couldn't do that.
00:43:19.000So it's going to become a very dangerous world between now and when Joe Biden loses office, if he in fact loses office, and if the perception is that he's going to lose office.
00:43:27.000We are going to get to a couple of major decisions coming down from the Supreme Court.
00:43:31.000Neither of them particularly good for conservatives, despite all of the talk about how the Supreme Court is dominated by doctrinaire conservatives.
00:43:36.000That's not what the Supreme Court did yesterday.
00:43:39.000Well, the media keep portraying the Supreme Court as some sort of right-wing tool.
00:43:42.000It's just a bunch of conservatives doing conservative things.
00:43:44.000They need to wake up and smell the coffee, like Black Rifle.
00:43:49.000I don't always have the time to brew coffee the traditional way every morning.
00:43:51.000That's why I love Black Rifle Coffee's ready-to-drink cans.
00:43:54.000Ready-to-drink coffee is perfect for people who need their coffee quickly.
00:43:57.000Each contains at least 200 milligrams of caffeine, and is available in a variety of flavors like vanilla bomb, salted caramel mocha, and vanilla caramel.
00:44:03.000Black Rifle Coffee is a veteran-founded coffee company operated by principled men and women who honor those who protect, defend, and support our country.
00:44:09.000With every purchase you make, they give back.
00:44:11.000Stop running out of coffee and sign up for a Coffee Club subscription to have Black Rifle Coffee delivered straight to your door on a schedule.
00:44:17.000Coffee Club subscribers receive their high-quality coffee at lower prices with free shipping, plus they get early access to exclusive deals and prices.
00:44:46.000Every abortion opinion at the Supreme Court now gets leaked.
00:44:48.000This particular abortion decision is not in favor of conservatives.
00:44:51.000Apparently, it's going to allow emergency rooms to perform abortions.
00:44:54.000According to the Wall Street Journal, the Supreme Court appears ready to let emergency abortions be performed in Idaho, despite the state's near-total ban on the procedure.
00:45:02.000According to a draft version of a decision, the court accidentally posted on its website Wednesday and then quickly removed.
00:45:07.000By a 6-3 vote, the draft decision dismisses the state of Idaho's appeal of a lower court order temporarily permitting emergency abortions under federal law governing hospitals that accept Medicare.
00:45:16.000Idaho state law forbids the procedure except when necessary to save a woman's life.
00:45:19.000The Biden administration argued federal law is more permissive, authorizing emergency abortions when needed to stabilize a patient in a health crisis.
00:45:27.000The Supreme Court issued a statement saying no decision was final.
00:45:30.000The draft order dismisses the case as improvidently granted.
00:45:34.000Six justices were ready to resolve the basic issue, but three did not want to do that.
00:45:39.000They sort of wanted to kick it off to a future day.
00:45:40.000The same thing happened, actually, with regard to a very important case about the pressure placed on social media platforms by the Biden administration and by the federal government generally.
00:45:52.000So, as we've been following here at The Daily Wire for a long time, because we have a dog in this particular fight, The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals had found, in a federal case, that the federal government could not put pressure on social media companies to take things down.
00:46:06.000That effectively, the federal government, using its power to force social media companies or to cudgel social media companies informally into doing their will, was a violation of the First Amendment.
00:46:19.000That's what the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals found.
00:46:20.000Yesterday, the Supreme Court declined to even take on the issue.
00:46:24.000They rejected a lawsuit alleging that the Biden administration officials unlawfully pressured social media platforms to remove content flagged as disinformation.
00:46:32.000They say instead that no one had standing to sue.
00:46:34.000So instead of resolving the underlying issue, which is how far can the federal government go in communicating with private companies to get them to do things before they're violating the First Amendment, instead of taking that on, they kick the can down the road by citing some sort of standing issue.
00:46:48.000According to the Wall Street Journal, the high court said the plaintiffs, which included a handful of doctors and anti-vax activists and a far-right web publisher, failed at a first fundamental step for any lawsuit, showing they had suffered specific injuries that judges are capable of addressing.
00:47:00.000Now, this could all be stopped by an act of Congress.
00:47:02.000to conduct a review of the years-long communications between dozens of federal officials
00:47:05.000across different agencies with different social media platforms
00:47:08.000about different topics, according to the decision writer,
00:47:34.000Barrett noted online platforms had their own incentives to moderate content and enforce policies aimed at removing false and misleading content, independent of discussions of the government.
00:47:42.000She said, none of the plaintiffs could show that any of their speech that was restricted online was a result of pressure government officials placed on social media companies.
00:47:50.000Three conservative dissented, this would be Alito, Thomas, and Gorsuch.
00:47:53.000Alito said for months, high ranking government officials placed unrelenting pressure on Facebook
00:47:57.000to suppress Americans free speech. Because the court unjustifiably refuses to address
00:48:01.000this serious threat to the First Amendment, I respectfully dissent.
00:48:03.000Of course, Alito, who is the second best justice on the court after Justice Thomas,
00:48:08.000is absolutely correct. It is absurd on every level that the federal Supreme Court is refusing
00:48:15.000to take up the issue as to how far the federal executive branch can go in pressuring private
00:48:39.000It contains evidence of communications between many different government actors and a variety of internet platforms, as well as evidence regarding the effects of those interactions on the seven different plaintiffs.
00:48:49.000For months in 2021 and 2022, a coterie of officials at the highest levels of the federal government continually harried and implicitly threatened Facebook with potentially crippling consequences if it did not comply with their wishes about the suppression of certain COVID-19 related speech.
00:49:05.000The court shirks its duty and permits the successful campaign of coercion, in this case, to stand as an attractive model for future officials who want to control what people say, hear, and think.
00:49:15.000So again, the case that Alito is making is that you're wanting some sort of clear threat, like a horse's head in a bed or something, from the federal government to Facebook.
00:49:23.000But all you're really encouraging is subtle threats and intimidation from the federal government, which will now become the way this stuff is done.
00:49:30.000He is right about all of this, of course.
00:49:33.000And as he points out, the court may come to regret its willingness to allow the federal government to dictate terms this way.
00:49:41.000Alito concludes, For months, high-ranking government officials placed unrelenting
00:49:46.000pressure on Facebook to suppress Americans' free speech.
00:49:48.000Because the court unjustifiably refuses to address the serious threats of the First Amendment, I respectfully dissent.
00:49:56.000Which means, presumably, the same sort of stuff is going to happen.
00:49:58.000Remember, this is exactly how the Hunter Biden laptop story got suppressed by the federal government.
00:50:02.000He had members of the FBI and CIA approaching social media and basically telling them, Guys, you know, he might be rushing this information.