Kamala Harris is the Democratic presidential nominee, and she's getting a huge boost in the polls. What does that mean for her chances of winning the nomination? And what does it mean for the rest of the Democratic primary race? And how will that affect her chances in 2020 and beyond? Alex Castellanos answers these questions and much more in today's post-Debate edition of Inside the Beltway with Alex Blumberg and Brandon Todt ( ) of FiveThirtyEight and The Daily Wire's Peter Bergen ( ) join me to talk about it all. Today's episode is a special bonus episode for our listeners, featuring a new segment called "Sugar High" where we talk about how Democrats are experiencing a "sugar high" in the wake of Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race, and why it's actually not so bad for her to be the Democratic nominee for the party's presidential nomination. The full episode is available wherever books are sold, including Audible, iTunes, and Podcoin. Thanks to everyone who submitted questions, and we'll see you next week with a new episode of Inside The Beltway podcast! We'll be posting polls, analysis, and in-depth analysis of the latest news and results from the latest polls, as well as the latest from CNN and other major news outlets. Thank you for all the support we've gotten so far! - your continued support has been so far, we can't thank you enough. - and we're looking forward to seeing you all in 2020. Thank you so much for all your support, and all the good work you've done so far this year, and the support you've been showing us your support throughout the past few months, we really appreciate all the years, it's been so much, thank you, we're grateful for all of your support and support, we appreciate it, we'll keep supporting us, we've got a lot of you. -- Alex and Alex and Brandon -- Thank you, Alex and her team - Thank you! -- and we appreciate you, bye bye -- bye bye bye. Alex and bye bye, bye Bye Bye Bye, bye, Bye Bye. Love ya'll. <3, bye - OJUICY! - Elyssa and Joe Biden. - EJ & Joe Biden - SOTW. Billie O'Dee - Kristy and Joe
00:00:00.000Well, with Kamala Harris now the presidential nominee for the Democrats, Democrats are experiencing a sugar high.
00:00:06.000The sugar high is coming from the fact that Joe Biden is, in fact, not the nominee, but Democrats are mistaking that sugar high for Kamala Harris being an actually good and effective candidate.
00:00:15.000Now, the polls have tightened pretty dramatically, and that is, again, because Joe Biden is no longer in the race.
00:00:20.000Effectively, the race has been pushed back before the debate, so right before the debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
00:00:28.000Joe Biden was losing, but he was losing by a marginal amount.
00:00:31.000He was within the margin of error in virtually every swing state.
00:00:33.000He was within a couple points of Donald Trump.
00:01:42.000The media going out of their way to erase all the truths about Kamala Harris.
00:01:44.000Even with that, Kamala Harris is still not leading in the polls.
00:01:48.000According to Decision Desk HQ, which is an excellent aggregator of polls, they find, for example in Pennsylvania, That Donald Trump still has about a two and a half point lead on Kamala Harris.
00:02:00.000And that is a minor, minor decrease since the week before.
00:02:03.000In other words, the polls, Democrat versus Republican, continue to be quite durable in favor of Donald Trump.
00:02:09.000Although, again, those margins are very, very narrow.
00:02:11.000And you're going to get another three weeks of solid coverage of Kamala Harris where the media basically just massaged her.
00:02:17.000She's going to pick a vice presidential candidate sometime in the next couple of weeks.
00:02:20.000You're going to get the Democratic convention that is happening the third week of August.
00:02:23.000So, it's going to be a nice three weeks for Kamala Harris, and then the bump is going to be over.
00:02:27.000You are seeing, of course, a massive impact on her approval rating.
00:02:30.000Martha Raddatz of ABC News, she was reporting that Kamala Harris' approval rating has bumped almost 20 points since she was announced as the nominee.
00:02:39.000This morning our brand new ABC News Ipsos poll shows Harris getting a real bounce.
00:02:45.000Her favorability rating among all Americans up eight points in just one week.
00:02:52.000The numbers even better among independents with her favorability rising from 28% to 44% since Biden left the race.
00:03:01.000And there appears to be new enthusiasm for Harris, with 48% enthusiastic about her as the Democratic nominee, compared to 39% enthusiastic about Trump as the GOP nominee.
00:03:15.000Okay, well, again, that enthusiasm is likely to wear off as the sort of varnish on Kamala Harris' candidacy starts to wear off.
00:03:24.000The fact is that Kamala Harris is a bad candidate.
00:03:26.000She was a bad candidate in 2019, she's a bad candidate in 2020, and she is in fact a bad candidate in 2024, as we'll get to.
00:03:47.000So Democrats are trying to take all of the weirdnesses of Kamala Harris and magically shift them over in real time into assets.
00:03:53.000So all the weird clips of her laughing about falling out of a coconut tree or something, those are now being turned into some sort of Strength.
00:04:01.000In the same way the Democrats tried to do this, you remember that Brandon, let's go Brandon, started off as a mistaken chant at a NASCAR rally.
00:04:11.000At NASCAR, there's a big event and people were shouting, F Joe Biden.
00:04:16.000And one of the commentators there didn't want to say what exactly the crowd was chanting.
00:04:19.000So instead, the commentator said, they're chanting, let's go Brandon.
00:04:23.000And then that became sort of a phrase used by the right.
00:04:25.000And then that was captured and used by the Democrats In terms of taking the image of Joe Biden, putting sunglasses on him with laser eyes, and then saying he was dark Brennan.
00:04:34.000So now Democrats are trying to do the same with the coconut meme.
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00:05:53.000Everyone knew that she was to the left.
00:05:55.000So she says, On the morning after the disastrous June debate between Biden and Trump, I wrote with enthusiasm I believed Harris should take over at the top of the ticket and very much could be Trump.
00:06:05.000A lot of people are now asking themselves how they feel about Harris and whether she can do the job.
00:06:09.000All understandable questions after five years when many people were meh at best on her.
00:06:13.000The flash flood of endorsements, donations, and support for Harris has been astonishing.
00:06:17.000I think you can trace the beginning of the vibe shift to Biden's terrible debate and Harris's interview with CNN's Anderson Cooper shortly afterward when she crisply defended Biden and made an energetic case against Trump.
00:06:25.000Okay, that's not really what's happening here.
00:06:27.000Again, nobody actually has new thoughts about Kamala Harris.
00:06:30.000They're just trying to talk themselves into new thoughts about Kamala Harris because they're relieved that Joe Biden is not in the race.
00:06:35.000Now, there are a bunch of problems with Kamala Harris as a candidate.
00:08:09.000People like me, big backers of DeSantis because he happens to be the best governor in the country.
00:08:14.000And then it turns out that when he got on the national stage, that he kind of spoke awkwardly and all of that sort of stuff started to crop up.
00:08:19.000Kamala Harris has been on the national stage before.
00:08:23.000The attempt to recast her as something magical and wonderful is odd because there are too many clips of her cackling like a crazy person, or smarm-smiling her way through various events, or delivering word salads like something out of Soup Plantation.
00:09:14.000From the bizarre laugh where she kind of starts shaking and then she laughs kind of crazily, to the strange sentences that are literally impossible to diagram via sentence tree.
00:10:49.000Vance because he doesn't have anything that sort of sticks out at you as strange on a personal level.
00:10:53.000So instead, they're saying that he's weird because he believes weird things.
00:10:58.000And of course they are focusing in on the cat lady comments.
00:11:02.000I mean, they're focusing in on the fact that a few years back, J.D.
00:11:05.000Vance, in 2021, was on Tucker Carlson's show, and he was talking about how the policies of the Democratic Party are geared towards single women.
00:11:14.000And he threw out this line that, again, people say stuff on Fox News all the time.
00:11:55.000We're effectively run in this country via the Democrats, via our corporate oligarchs, by a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives and the choices that they've made, and so they want to make the rest of the country miserable too.
00:12:35.000And we can pretend that it is a matter of complete Apathy as to whether human beings have children?
00:12:42.000All of social development, all of human survival relies on people having children.
00:12:47.000So, if we have a choice as a society, whether to promote childbearing and childrearing or whether to not promote it, that is not a matter of apathy in the slightest.
00:12:57.000And that's why, presumably, you should give tax benefits for having kids.
00:13:00.000That's the case that J.D., I think, is trying to make.
00:13:02.000Instead, he goes after the opposite, right?
00:13:09.000And he explains himself on Megyn Kelly.
00:13:12.000This comment that I made was actually motivated in part by a conversation I had with my wife, where she at the time had two babies, we hadn't yet had a third, and she was talking about how she felt this incredible professional pressure to not have kids because it set back her professional advancement.
00:13:29.000And what a weird society that we've set up where moms who want to work The thought that a lot of them are having is, I can't have more babies because it's going to be bad for my career.
00:13:38.000How about we make the workplace more accommodating to working moms and working dads so that we can promote a real culture of life?
00:13:47.000OK, so again, that argument, if you'd made that in 2021, is totally non-controversial or at least very difficult to make it controversial.
00:13:54.000It's the fact that he used the phrase cat lady and now Democrats are glomming onto that.
00:13:57.000So what they've decided is really because they don't want Republicans painting Kamala as weird.
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00:14:53.000Again, I think this is a dog that is not going to hunt particularly well.
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00:15:14.000Again, I think this is a dog that is not going to hunt particularly well.
00:15:18.000And this is coming from somebody who thinks that, you know, Donald Trump, strategically speaking,
00:15:26.000This is about Democrats slandering J.D.
00:15:28.000Vance as weird in order to avoid the consequence of the fact that they picked a very weird vice president in 2020 who is now the presidential candidate.
00:15:35.000So, over the last two days, according to Tom Elliott, founder of Gravion, CNN and MSNBC have suggested that J.D.
00:15:42.000Vance is weird more than 150 times in two days.
00:15:48.000The Democratic media complex rides again.
00:16:34.000And he's probably sitting and watching the TV.
00:16:37.000And every day, Vance, it comes out, Vance has done something more extreme, more weird, more erratic.
00:16:43.000Vance seems to be more erratic and more extreme than President Trump.
00:16:46.000And I'll bet President Trump is sitting there, scratching his head and wondering, why did I pick this guy?
00:16:54.000Okay, so again, the idea here is that he's weird.
00:16:56.000Jen Psaki, who went directly from being the press secretary for Joe Biden to being the press secretary for Kamala Harris, but working for MSNBC, she also says that J.D.
00:17:26.000Donald Trump and his weirdo running mate and the Republican apparatus behind them will regroup.
00:17:30.000They will throw everything that's going to be gross, misogynistic, sexist, racist, all of the things.
00:17:36.000This is the candidacy they're gonna try and run, is that if you point out that Kamala Harris is in fact both weird on policy and personally, this means that you're a racist and a sexist and the actual weirdo is the perfectly normal guy from Ohio who's married with kids and goes to Catholic church.
00:17:51.000And believes in traditional family and thinks that it's actually kind of a big social issue if people aren't having kids.
00:20:27.000It was deliberately an insult to Christians all over the world.
00:20:31.000And then, they float on in, Dionysius, Who is the Greek god of wine, except he's like a fat smurf on a cornucopia of flowers to sing to you.
00:21:38.000It's not just weird, it's insulting, obviously, because it turns out that a Judeo-Christian heritage, upon which the West was built, that values family and childbearing and childrearing, explicitly rejects this.
00:21:50.000I mean, understand that it's not just about the mockery of The Last Supper, which is disgusting and horrible, and the fact is that, again, they would never try this in France with Muslims, because if they did, Charlie Hebdo would have all of its employees murdered.
00:22:03.000This is about a society that has decided to revert to the pre-Christian ideal.
00:22:09.000I know these people are very interested in insulting Christian tradition, but you know a place that doesn't?
00:22:15.000It's a private Christian university in the beautiful Phoenix, Arizona area.
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00:24:19.000Well, if you look at France as sort of the bleeding edge of the cultural West, then what you see is that France, like pretty much every other country in Europe, as well as the United States, has an aging population with very few babies.
00:24:35.000It turns out that a weird idea of human behavior, in which all behaviors are deemed morally equivalent and societally useful, tends to degrade into moral relativism.
00:24:43.000And that moral relativism tends to degrade into hedonism, and then into a sort of cultural decay.
00:24:51.000France's population increase has basically stalled out.
00:24:57.000Right now, the fertility rate in France has dropped down to 1.68 children per woman compared to 1.79 in 2022.
00:25:47.000The frequency and intensity of religious practice, however, varies by religious affiliation.
00:25:51.000Only 8% of those Catholics regularly attend a place of worship.
00:25:55.000Compared to just over 20% of other Christians, Muslims, and Buddhists.
00:26:01.00091% of people raised in a Muslim family follow the religion of their parents.
00:26:05.000Only 67% of Catholics follow the religion of their parents.
00:26:09.000So religion is falling away, childbearing is falling away, and not a shock.
00:26:14.000And as it turns out, the prediction is that by about 2050, 20% of the population of France is going to be Muslim.
00:26:21.000You've already seen the massive social discontent that is set in in France.
00:26:25.000The entire country is radically politically divided because of mass migration, and that mass migration has been made necessary by, again, the economic...
00:26:33.000Pyramid scheme that is an aging population in France.
00:26:37.000So what does that have to do with America?
00:26:38.000Well, again, it has to do with what actually is weird.
00:26:41.000I'll tell you what's not particularly weird.
00:26:43.000A Republican presidential candidate saying perhaps we should have tax incentives in order to get people to have more kids.
00:26:51.000Saying that, you know, it's actually a benefit of society for people to have kids.
00:26:53.000We should make it easier for people to have kids in the United States economically.
00:26:56.000You can argue with the policy or disagree with the policy, but the idea that it is societally important, and yes, morally praiseworthy to have and raise children.
00:27:07.000And that society ought not be apathetic about that.
00:27:30.000Okay, Kamala Harris's campaign is built around this alternative moral structure in which we are supposed to be not only apathetic, but somewhat disdainful of religion, Christianity, traditional family.
00:27:40.000Like that is real about Kamala Harris.
00:27:42.000Again, forget about the cat lady, not cat lady, kind of snarky nonsense.
00:27:45.000The only thing that matters on an issue level is the fact that Kamala Harris actually identifies with one side of this particular political divide.
00:27:55.000And that does have major ramifications for the future of society.
00:27:59.000And let's face it, that's what we would normally call weird.
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00:29:33.000And again, she also happens to be kind of weird.
00:29:36.000Here she was on RuPaul's Drag Race last week.
00:29:40.000I mean, let's be a little real about this.
00:29:42.000Kamala Harris would be much more comfortable hanging out with the cast of The Last Supper on the sign at the Olympics than she would in like a traditional Baptist church in Georgia.
00:29:58.000Each day, we are seeing our rights and freedoms under attack, including the right of everyone to be who they are, love who they love, openly and with pride.
00:30:11.000So as we fight back against these attacks, let's all remember, no one is alone.
00:30:17.000We are all in this together, and your vote is your power.
00:30:22.000So please make sure your voice is heard this November and register to vote at vote.gov.
00:32:19.000Her entire campaign is now being run along the same lines, not as Barack Obama's 2008 campaign, which is the one everybody's all enthusiastic about.
00:32:32.000The 2012 campaign, where Barack Obama decided to divvy, slice, and dice up the American population into various intersectional groups, and then try to drive out the vote with each one of those intersectional groups.
00:32:42.000So in just a second, we're going to get to how she's running this campaign.
00:33:55.000You're allowed to call them Karens, as in, like, upper-class white ladies who really ought to be apologetic for, you know, their race and their sex.
00:34:03.000But that's what they were doing on the Zoom call.
00:34:05.000So on the Zoom call, they were legitimately apologizing for who they were while pushing Kamala Harris.
00:34:11.000Which, if this makes you feel better, ladies, I gotta tell you, I think there's something deeper going on that's more of a problem.
00:34:16.000Here was Ariel Fodor, a member of White Women for Kamala.
00:34:25.000Like, why would you divide the American people this way?
00:34:28.000But this is precisely what they're doing because, again, the 2012 Barack Obama Theory of Politics was cobbled together a bunch of upper-class white ladies and a bunch of intersectional minorities, and that will be your coalition.
00:34:37.000And that will be the new Democratic coalition.
00:34:40.000Not a class-based coalition, not a working-class coalition.
00:34:45.000Here's Ariel Fodor saying some pretty wild things on this white women for Harris phone call.
00:34:53.000We are here because, as if you were here earlier, you've heard BIPOC women have tapped us in as white women to step up, listen, and get involved this election season.
00:35:03.000This is a really important time, and we all need to use our voices and influence for the greater good.
00:35:09.000No matter who you are, you are all influencers in some way.
00:35:13.000So tonight, I'm going to share some do's and don'ts for getting involved in politics online and navigating the toxicity that comes with it.
00:35:22.000And spoiler alert, as much as the toxicity can come from the outside, it can come from us too.
00:35:42.000As white women, we need to use our privilege to make positive changes.
00:35:46.000If you find yourself talking over or speaking for BIPOC individuals or, God forbid, correcting them, just take a beat.
00:35:54.000And instead, we can put our listening ears on.
00:35:57.000So do learn from and amplify the voices of those who have been historically marginalized and use the privilege you have in order to push for systemic change.
00:36:58.000Dividing everybody up by black, queer, and gay men for Harris, white women for Harris.
00:37:03.000There's also, by the way, white men for Harris, which is precisely as terrible as you would think it is.
00:37:10.000They're calling it white dudes for Harris, and it's being led by Uber Hulk Hogan type Pete Buttigieg, According to the New York Post, Kamala Harris is using potential Veep candidate Pete Buttigieg to woo white dude voters who need to be honest with ourselves and each other about the role we've played in our nation's history.
00:37:26.000Yes, apologetic white men, come together for Kamala Harris!
00:37:31.000Ain't no way you're gonna drive that Rust Belt vote with Pete Buttigieg talking about apologizing for being white.
00:38:44.000Pritzker earlier talk about this idea that he had a thing for couches.
00:38:47.000He literally made a joke about a couch during one of his It turns out there are a bunch of problems with Kamala Harris' candidacy and all of this is misdirected.
00:39:12.000The biggest problem, honestly, with Kamala Harris' candidacy, aside from the fact she's personally weird, aside from the fact she believes weird stuff, is the fact, again, she is wildly dishonest.
00:39:22.000According to a new poll, 92% of Americans believe that Kamala Harris was involved in the cover-up of Joe Biden's health to at least some degree.
00:39:35.00068% of those who believe there was a cover-up of Biden's health said Harris had a great deal to do with it.
00:39:43.000And among the questions asked by this new YouGov survey, respondents were asked if Biden was unfairly pressured to drop out, 48% no, 32% yes.
00:39:52.000Whether there was a cover-up of Biden's health, 54% yes.
00:39:54.000So 54% yes, and of that, 92% believe that Kamala Harris was involved in the cover-up.
00:40:00.000Well, again, she was involved in the cover-up.
00:40:32.000Now, Seymour Hersh has reported, I'd say like 50% of the time he's right, 50% of the time he's kind of wrong.
00:40:40.000So I'm just going to report this with the giant grain of salt that it deserves.
00:40:44.000However, Seymour Hersh says that effectively speaking, Barack Obama ousted Joe Biden by threatening him with the 25th Amendment.
00:40:52.000According to Seymour Hersh, By Saturday, July 20th, former President Barack Obama was deeply involved.
00:40:57.000There was talk he would place a call to Biden.
00:40:59.000It was not clear whether Biden had been examined or just what had happened to him in Las Vegas.
00:41:03.000Apparently, they suggest that he had some sort of health crisis in Las Vegas.
00:41:06.000The big three, the official said, referring to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, continued to be directly involved.
00:41:14.000On Sunday morning, the official told me, with the approval of Pelosi and Schumer, Obama called Biden after breakfast and said, here's the deal.
00:41:20.000We have Kamala's approval to invoke the 25th Amendment.
00:41:23.000And it was at that point that Joe Biden decided that he would step out of the race.
00:41:27.000But again, they were all part of the cover-up.
00:41:30.000They're also all part of the rewriting.
00:41:32.000So rewriting Kamala Harris means pretending that she is not, in fact, radical, and also that she both did many things as vice president and also had no responsibilities and never did anything as vice president.
00:41:43.000So on the she's not radical bandwagon, you've got Governor Wes Moore, again, Maryland governor auditioning for her VP pick.
00:41:51.000Here he was saying that the GOP is disingenuous to call Kamala Harris radical despite the fact she was literally the most left-wing senator in America in 2019.
00:41:59.000I think she needs to continue putting together her vision for the future.
00:42:03.000I think that, you know, when you look at how she approaches things like public safety, first of all, it's remarkably disingenuous to call someone who is a prosecutor for her entire career someone who is soft on crime or someone who believed in defunding the police.
00:42:17.000She's never believed in defunding the police.
00:42:22.000But she literally talked about defunding the police in 2020.
00:42:27.000And she was a progressive prosecutor in San Francisco, like Chase Bowden.
00:42:34.000Meanwhile, Elizabeth Warren is trying to pretend that Kamala Harris had nothing to do with the border.
00:42:38.000Again, this is just rewriting in real time.
00:42:39.000This is Will Smith in Men in Black with the memory erasure machine.
00:42:45.000Let's remember to start with the facts, and that is that border crossings now are lower than they were in the last year of the Trump administration.
00:42:55.000But recognize, and I know that Kamala Harris knows this, this is a problem that ultimately has to be solved by Congress.
00:43:42.000But it's really on her radical policies that he's going to win, because the fact is that he does occupy the middle position on pretty much every policy in America right now, including abortion, where he has taken the state by state position.
00:43:53.000Kamala Harris is the one who thinks that we need to federalize Roe versus Wade and legitimize abortion up to point of birth.
00:43:59.000Here was Donald Trump calling Kamala Harris unhinged over the weekend.
00:44:04.000Harris is so extreme and unhinged that she has even declared the terms illegal alien and radical Islamic terrorism to be forbidden and unacceptable.
00:44:15.000You're not allowed to use those terms, but that's what it is.
00:45:13.000Well, it turns out that Kamala Harris, she's kind of a car crash, but let's talk about your car.
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00:45:19.000If you have a car that's just sitting in your driveway, taking up space, you should consider donating it to Cars for Kids.
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00:46:17.000She's gonna come back to Earth because it turns out that sugar hives wear off.
00:46:21.000And when they wear off, Turns out that people go back to their rational mind, and she's not a good candidate.
00:46:28.000Donald Trump also pointed out to, over the weekend, Hezbollah, which is a Lebanese terror group that is effectively an Iranian proxy group.
00:46:35.000They've been firing missiles consistently into Israel.
00:46:37.000Rocketed missiles into Israel for almost a year at this point.
00:46:40.000Israel has not responded in any sort of severe way.
00:46:43.000There was a Hezbollah attack that killed 12 Druze.
00:46:47.000Druze are Arabs who live in Israel, because as it turns out, Israel is in fact a multi-racial, multi-religious democracy.
00:46:55.000People of all races and ethnicities live there.
00:46:58.000So 12 Druze kids were killed in the Golan Heights.
00:47:01.000Hezbollah fired a missile and it killed all these kids in a town called Majdal Shams near the Syrian and Lebanese border.
00:47:09.000And Donald Trump pointed out that Hezbollah has been on the offense because the Biden administration is weak, which is 100% true.
00:47:17.000Today's attack on Israel cannot be forgotten and it will go down as another moment in history created by a weak and ineffective United States president and vice president.
00:47:27.000They wouldn't have done this if I were the president.
00:48:14.000Why in the world should there be an Article 5 obligation for countries in Europe and the United States to come to Turkey's defense If, for example, they go to war with, you know, an American ally, an European ally, actually, like Israel in the face of Turkish terror.
00:48:28.000In any case, all of that is because the Biden administration has reoriented in the Middle East away from the burgeoning Sunni-Israeli alliance that was pushed by Donald Trump, the Abraham Accords.
00:48:38.000and toward instead Iran and its allies.
00:48:41.000Kamala Harris, she waited for about 24 hours to put out a statement on the murder of these Druze kids.
00:49:04.000That, of course, is a way of trying to warn the Israelis off from destroying Hezbollah, as Hezbollah has emptied all of northern Israel of its citizens and now killed 12 Druze kids in the Golan Heights.
00:49:16.000And instead, she's putting pressure on Israel for diplomacy, backed, of course, by a despicable media.
00:49:21.000So the New York Times headline on this murder of the 12 Druze kids, quote, fears of escalation after rocket from Lebanon hits soccer field.
00:49:53.000A terror group in another country, Lebanon is another country from Israel, has been firing rockets over a sovereign border for a year Hey, this one's even worse from the Washington Post.
00:50:04.000The Washington Post front page ran a picture of people mourning a little girl who was killed by Hezbollah.