Ben Shapiro and Michael Bloomberg talk about the latest in the Kamala Harris campaign and why they think she's going to be the next president of the United States. They also talk about why it's a good idea to get out and vote today, and why you need to do it if you're not registered to vote. Plus, a reminder that every vote matters, and it's more important than ever to vote! Use code FUTURE to get 47% off your new Daily Wire Plus Annual Member with code FOLDER. Then make sure you re with us all night, election night, for the rest of our lives. Subscribe to Daily Wire and watch history unfold live with us tonight as I ve watched history unfold tonight. Our full coverage starts at 6pm ET, and we will be live all night until the winner is officially declared sometime in 2027. Thanks for listening, and Happy Election Day! Go to Dailywire.me/ElectronicPodcast and use the promo code "fight" at checkout to get a FREE stock like Apple, Ford, or Sprint, or any other company you choose, to receive $5 off your first month with the discount code "Fight For 47% OFF. Fight For 47%. Fight for 47% Offers valid through Nov. 6, 2020. and a free stock like Visa, Best Fiends, Best Buy, and Vaynerchucks, to get 5% off the entire month of the entire year. Also, use promo codes Fight447 and the rest in 2020! to get 15% off their entire year, and get $50 off the first month! and $99 off their first month, and they get $99, they get an ad discount, they also get a discount on your first year of the second month, they'll get $25 off your choice, and you'll get an extra $49, they're also get $24,99,99 gets $29,99 and they'll also get VIP access to VIP 4 months, they say "fight447% off VIP, they can upgrade their first year, they have a VIP discount, VIP gets 4 months get a VIP deal, they promo code and they're VIP gets VIP gets a special offer, they receive 4 months and they also gets VIP access, they will get a special deal, plus they'll have VIP access gets $24% off that starts after they get your first rate, they won't even get a prime rate and they receive VIP access and they can access all of that gets you a discount, and all they'll receive all of your best deal starts after that starts in two weeks, they all get a full service service starts after two weeks and they will receive $24/place gets $33,99 & they get full service starts starts starts after three months and a promo code, they gets full of VIP gets an ad starts starts, they ll also get an entire place in the VIP discount starts starts at $29/place they receive $4/place is $24 and they ll get $5,000 and they have an ad begins at $4,000, they are also
00:01:33.000This is not the day where you're in Pennsylvania and just get lazy and then it turns out that Dave McCormick loses his race by one vote because you decided to stay home or Donald Trump ends up not going back to the White House because, you know, your car broke down.
00:03:46.000You need to vote because there are serious things at stake, as I discussed yesterday on the show.
00:03:49.000There is a broader question at stake today in this election, though.
00:03:52.000Whether we're a nation that actually wants to be dynamic or whether we just want to continue our slide into senescence.
00:03:58.000Are we a nation that actually wants an economy of innovation and entrepreneurship and building?
00:04:02.000Or do we want an economy that's about redistribution, stagnation, punishment of success?
00:04:07.000Are we a nation that wants a foreign policy of strength with powerful allies and our enemies in retreat?
00:04:12.000Or are we a nation that would like to abandon the world stage, handing power to our enemies as the light goes out?
00:04:18.000Are we a nation that wants to build on the roots of family and community?
00:04:21.000Or are we a country that wants to trade the institutions that actually make life worth living, family, community, in favor of a top-down dictation from a self-appointed elite who believe that their untried values ought to supplant time-tested virtues?
00:04:34.000But most of all, you need to vote because you actually do owe it to both your ancestors and your progeny to do so.
00:04:50.000Modern democracy in the West has its roots in Magna Carta, in the Estates General of France, but actually didn't reach full fruition in the way we think of democracy until probably the glorious revolution of 1688 in Great Britain.
00:05:01.000See, here's the thing about democracy.
00:05:03.000It takes centuries to inculcate values of democracy.
00:05:06.000The rights of the people to be free of arbitrary government, which is the thing that lies at the heart of Western democracy.
00:05:39.000That's why the single most important paragraph ever written on the American system can be found in Federalist 51 by James Madison, the framer of the Constitution.
00:05:45.000He said this, quote, What is government itself but the greatest of all reflections on human nature?
00:05:49.000If men were angels, no government would be necessary.
00:05:52.000If angels were to govern men, neither external nor internal controls on government would be necessary.
00:05:56.000In framing a government which is to be administered by men over men, the great difficulty lies in this.
00:06:01.000You must first enable the government to control the governed, and the next place oblige it to control itself.
00:06:06.000A dependence on the people is no doubt the primary control on the government, but experience has taught mankind the necessity of auxiliary precautions.
00:06:14.000So the founders instituted checks and balances because Madison was right.
00:06:17.000But Madison was also right that in the end, the primary control on the government is a dependence on the judgment of the people.
00:06:24.000And that's the thing we all have to agree on in order for our democracy, you know, things that all our politicians like to talk about.
00:06:39.000People of every age and race were in the line.
00:06:41.000But everybody was there because they agreed to this really weird common principle that we would abide by the collective decision of all of us about who would represent us for things like the presidency, for Congress, for the Senate.
00:06:57.000We abided by the common notion that we actually share a nation together and that if our side lost, we understand the next time we might still win because our neighbors are persuadable and we know them.
00:07:07.000That we're willing to delegate some of the biggest stakes decisions in life to a system that actually values the opinions of our fellow citizens.
00:07:15.000Democracy, small d democracy, only works when both sides are invested in the bargain.
00:07:19.000If one side always believes they're going to lose, they're not going to buy in, they revolt.
00:07:24.000If you believe you're in a permanent minority and that your rights are constantly being trampled and there's no prospect of victory, that's when democracy breaks down.
00:07:30.000Jefferson says in the Declaration of Independence that government derives its just powers from the consent of the governed.
00:07:36.000That consent really only continues if we all believe enough in one another and in our system.
00:07:41.000Now, we all know that system is fraying.
00:07:59.000Thanks to the checks and balances of the framers who understood both the value and the dangers of democracy, we can rest assured that if the other person wins, yes, things will get worse, but we will survive.
00:08:10.000Contrary to popular opinion, this will not be the last election.
00:08:12.000It truly will not be the last election.
00:08:14.000Now, with that said, this vote matters more than most.
00:08:18.000Because while this will not be the last election in the United States of America, it is an inflection point.
00:08:22.000We can continue down a path of polarizing the country by race, sex, and identity, or we can reverse that process and see each other as individuals.
00:08:29.000We can continue to tear apart the country by indicting each other as oppressors and pretending that we are the oppressed, or we can together seize the future and recognize that if we make the right decisions, we'll succeed.
00:08:41.000We can continue to retreat from the world or we can remember that America always was and still remains the last best hope of mankind.
00:08:50.000You should vote because you can and because that is an immense privilege earned by the blood of others and still denied to most of humanity today as we sit here and talk.
00:09:00.000And you should vote because you should because your vote in this election, a tight election like this one, is certainly going to matter.
00:09:07.000All right, so where do we stand on election day?
00:09:11.000Well, there are a couple of theories as to how this race is going to go.
00:09:14.000One theory is how Trump can win, and one theory is how Kamala can win.
00:09:17.000I think it is fairly safe to say that Donald Trump has the advantage in the so-called Sun Belt states.
00:09:23.000North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada's probably dead even.
00:09:29.000The Sun Belt states are probably in Trump's corner at this point.
00:09:32.000Politico is even acknowledging as much today.
00:09:34.000They say that basically she is relegated to the Rust Belt.
00:09:39.000They say that she is stronger than it appears perhaps in blue wall states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
00:09:45.000But she's fallen apart basically in some of the Sunbelt states because her coalition is different.
00:09:50.000According to Politico, Trump's gains with voters of color looks real.
00:09:53.000That has required Harris to dip into traditionally Republican voter pools like whites and older voters.
00:09:58.000Now normally this would be a good indicator for Trump, right?
00:10:00.000If you told me before this election cycle Republicans are going to win an outside share of Hispanics and black voters, And that Kamala's going to have to try to appeal to old white people to get out to vote for her?
00:10:14.000And I think it is still advantage Trump today.
00:10:17.000Politico says if months of handicapping are right, the election will come down once again to Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
00:10:23.000That's Harris's most likely path to victory.
00:10:26.000Polling has shown Harris's strength with white voters, especially in northern states.
00:10:29.000That's why even as national polls show a tie on the eve of the election, her path has remained clear, if difficult.
00:10:36.000Thanks to a slight improvement over 2020 among black voters, Trump will likely chip away a little in those states' big cities like Detroit, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee.
00:10:48.000Okay, so that's Politico that's pretty down on her prospects in this race.
00:10:52.000It is also worth noting that there are fundamentals to this race that pre-exist the actual election cycle.
00:10:58.000So James Freeman, writing for the Wall Street Journal today, he points out that Republicans have really ramped up voter registration in recent years.
00:11:06.000In the New York Times' Nate Cohen, Summing up this trend, he said Republicans rapidly gaining ground across the country.
00:11:13.000He notes, quote, Emily Crane over at the New York Post, quote, Republican pollster Alex Castellanos, who explained on Fox News, what I think they're missing is a massive shift in voter registration underneath all of this.
00:11:41.00031 states have voter registration by party.
00:11:43.00030 of them in the past four years have seen movement toward Republicans.
00:11:46.000Now Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin do not register voters by party.
00:11:51.000However, if you look at Pennsylvania, the terrain there seems to be getting more friendly to him all the time, according to the Wall Street Journal.
00:11:58.000Charles Thompson for the Harrisburg Patriot News says the Donald Trump era for whatever else it has been has proven to be a great party building period for the Republican Party.
00:12:06.000There are now more registered Republican voters in Pennsylvania than ever before.
00:12:10.000The party now numbers about 3.7 million.
00:12:13.000Democrats are still the largest party in number in Pennsylvania.
00:12:16.000But the Democratic Party's 280,000 vote lead in voter registration is down from 1.2 million at the height of the Barack Obama fever in 2008.
00:12:25.000The margin for Democrats in voter registration heading into 2020 was almost 700,000.
00:12:30.000So Republicans have made some significant gains in a lot of these swing states in terms of voter registration.
00:12:35.000And we do have some early voting data, and again, with all the provisos, which we'll get into in a moment, They're still interesting.
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00:14:54.000Okay, so taking a look at this early voting data.
00:14:56.000And again, Got to take it with a grain of salt, because the big question is, how much of this is cannibalizing the high-propensity voters, right?
00:15:03.000People like me, who normally vote on Election Day, I voted early instead.
00:15:05.000I can't vote twice, so if I voted early, that's not like the Republicans won additional votes.
00:15:09.000But, suffice it to say that if the flip were true, meaning if Republicans were really, really lagging badly in the early voting...
00:15:17.000Democrats would already be calling the election.
00:15:18.000So there is an indicator here, and it is that Republicans are, in fact, doing better than expected.
00:15:22.000So Elon Musk, a little bit earlier today, tweeted out the R-D early vote deltas in the swing states.
00:15:29.000So again, that would be like the change from 2020 to 2024 in the difference in early voting between Republicans and Democrats, because Democrats just destroyed Republicans in early voting in 2020, which is why you saw this giant blue shift This sort of tidal wave that happened late at night on election night in 2020.
00:15:47.000Trump won the day of, which was expected, and then all the mail-ins came in, and it turns out that every Democrat and their dead grandmother had voted, and so that wiped away whatever leads Trump had in many of those swing states like Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and all the rest.
00:17:01.000That's a big change in terms of Republicans actually taking advantage of the mail-in and early voting procedures in places like Pennsylvania.
00:17:39.000I think that if you were going to make, if you were going to steal a man a case for Kamala Harris, like make a strong case for why Kamala Harris is going to win, the strongest case for Kamala Harris goes something like this.
00:18:22.000We kind of know how many registered voters there are.
00:18:25.000We'll take a poll, all those registered voters, and we'll throw it out.
00:18:27.000But a likely voter screen means that you can game the system.
00:18:31.000It means that you can say, okay, well, we think that only 55% of black voters are going to actually show up to the polls this time.
00:18:38.000Or maybe we think 80% of black voters are going to show up to the polls this time.
00:18:40.000And so you change how many likely voters you think are going to show up.
00:18:44.000So the case for Kamala is that the pollsters are so afraid of missing...
00:18:49.000In the direction they missed in 2016 and 2020, namely, they underestimated Trump's support.
00:18:53.000They're so scared of underestimating Trump's support that they're actually overestimating Trump's support in order to overcompensate because the incentive structure is that if they once again underestimate Trump's support and then Trump wins, they're afraid that they are out of business, that everybody's going to be super angry at them.
00:19:09.000Whereas if they underestimate Kamala's support and then she wins, the Democrats are going to be so happy that they're not going to care, and the rest is history.
00:19:16.000There's no question there's some poll grouping going on.
00:19:20.000I mean, as Nate Silver points out, if you really thought this was a 48-48 election, the average would be 48-48, but not every poll would be 48-48.
00:19:31.000Normally the way that you do a poll average is you have some that say like 47-44 and some that say 47-44 the other way.
00:19:37.000And then you average them and it's a dead race.
00:19:39.000But this is a weird race that suggests again that the pollsters are screwing around with the numbers because the average and the actual polls are the same.
00:20:57.000Again, the Wall Street Journal is positing maybe that's the case.
00:21:00.000When pollsters set out to explain how they missed Trump's Electoral College victory in 2016, says the Wall Street Journal, and their underestimation of Trump's strength once again in 2020, one thought was that some of the candidates' supporters were wary of civic institutions and so were masking their true voting intentions.
00:21:15.000The opposite might now be the case, some campaign strategists think.
00:21:18.000Pressure in some communities to support Trump is so strong that voters who don't back him, particularly the women, might be the ones who this year are hesitant to reveal their true intentions.
00:21:26.000Mark Putnam, Democratic ad maker, says, quote, I don't have direct evidence of this, but in this highly contentious environment, it's not implausible for there to be significant percentages of women voters who are not just hiding their intended Harris vote from significant others, but also from pollsters.
00:21:44.000More likely that pollsters are overestimating Trump's support because they don't want to get it wrong in the same direction they got it wrong in 2016-2020.
00:21:50.000The idea that there are shy Harris—have you met a Kamala Harris supporter?
00:21:54.000These are the least shy people about their votes on earth.
00:21:57.000These are people like sit by their phones waiting for a pollster to call to tell you how much they love the brat and the joy of Kamala Harris.
00:24:26.000I think Trump's going to win all of them.
00:24:28.000I think Trump's going to win all of them.
00:24:29.000And the reason I say that I think that Trump is going to win all of them is because if you look at places like Ohio, they are trending redder.
00:24:35.000Those Rust Belt states are trending red.
00:25:17.000There can be big votes for Kamala Harris.
00:25:19.000What's the enthusiasm level for Kamala in Michigan day of?
00:25:22.000And as for Wisconsin, Wisconsin is a notoriously difficult state to poll.
00:25:26.000I think Eric Hovde may actually drag Trump up the ticket.
00:25:30.000I think Eric Hovde, who's the senatorial candidate in Wisconsin, who is running extremely strong in Wisconsin right now, I think Hovde wins that race.
00:25:37.000By the way, I think that Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania wins that race based on the early voting numbers.
00:25:42.000Again, this is all reading tea leaves.
00:25:45.000But if there's as much of a polling error as I think there may be with regard to Trump levels of support, again, so much of this is anecdotal.
00:25:52.000You just walk around, you see many more people who are willing to say out loud the thing they were not willing to say out loud in 2016 and 2020.
00:25:59.000I think Trump has a shot at New Hampshire.
00:26:01.000New Hampshire right now in the RealClearPolitics polling average, New Hampshire, Harris is only leading there by three and a half points in New Hampshire.
00:26:10.000And the Rasmussen Reports poll from late October has her up one.
00:26:17.000And if Dixville Notch, which is the little town that votes early every year, they vote at midnight on election day, and then they explain their vote.
00:26:24.000That town went in 2020 5-0 Biden-Trump.
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00:30:56.000In fact, she shows up and on a hot mic she is caught speaking to voters and asking them to go back inside their door so that she can be caught on tape door knocking them.
00:32:49.000Eastern, we start to get the early results as the polls close in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia.
00:32:54.000Now, the only two states in that list that actually kind of matter in terms of looking at how the election is going to come out are, of course, Georgia and Virginia.
00:33:10.000Glenn Youngkin was able to sneak out a solid gubernatorial victory there, but it is really not a purple state anymore, Virginia.
00:33:17.000With that said, there may be some early indicators of exactly how Republicans are going to perform if they're outperforming in a place like Virginia.
00:33:56.000If he starts to rack up, say, not a one- or two-point victory, starts to rack up like a four-, five-, six-point victory, that could be indicative of how things are going to go in some of the surrounding states like, for example, Wisconsin and Michigan, which are, of course, in terms of proximity and constituency, relatively close.
00:34:12.000As far as West Virginia, that, of course, the Senate seat that is going to go to the Republicans, that would be Jim Justice, who's going to win that Senate seat pretty easily.
00:34:20.000North Carolina, Democrats have been pushing really, really hard.
00:34:23.000If North Carolina flips blue, Trump has a real uphill battle in winning that election.
00:34:26.000So North Carolina is going to be a real bellwether.
00:34:28.000If that one starts to go heavy Democrat early on, if, for example, high black turnout, In some of the big cities in North Carolina, that could be indicative of good numbers for Kamala Harris in places like Philadelphia in Pennsylvania, obviously, or Detroit in Michigan, some of the big cities.
00:34:43.0008 p.m., you get Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Tennessee.
00:34:52.000Now again, none of those states make a huge difference in this election.
00:34:55.000There's some big ballot initiatives in Florida that I voted against, three and four.
00:35:00.000And if you're voting in Florida today, by the way, vote against amendments three and four.
00:35:46.000Now, again, because this is closing so late, the chances that we get any results from, say, Pennsylvania and Michigan until early morning, because that's when the mail-ins start to be counted— Very unlikely.
00:35:56.000I think that you're most likely to start seeing some real results out of those swing states early morning on Wednesday at best.
00:36:05.000But that gives you sort of an indicator of when these polls are going to close and when those results start to be tabulated again.
00:36:11.000It just demonstrates how stupid our system is that we're going to have to wait until Wednesday, Thursday to figure out exactly who's the president of the United States at a minimum.
00:36:18.000This thing could go all the way to Saturday depending on how close the election is and how quickly those votes are tabulated.
00:36:25.000Now, in the late breaking moments of the campaign, there were some endorsements on both sides.
00:36:29.000So yesterday, a big story was that Joe Rogan openly endorsed President Trump.
00:36:49.000This, of course, made some people very, very angry, but not Joe Rogan supporters, considering that, again, when it comes to Joe, it has been the Democratic Party that's been on his ass since the 2020 pandemic when they attempted to basically strong-arm Spotify into deplatforming him.
00:38:34.000There were two major female endorsers of President Trump yesterday.
00:38:38.000One was more predicted than the other Megyn Kelly actually appeared at a rally with President Trump and I think made a very solid case to women as to why they ought to vote for President Trump, whatever their particular holdups about Trump personally.
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00:40:41.000Eastern on Daily Wire Plus for our exclusive election coverage with special guests, including Jordan Peterson, Dennis Prager, Spencer Clayton, and more.
00:41:09.000As the final votes are counted and a nation waits for the outcome, join us to break down the live election results as only Ben Shapiro, Matt Walsh, Michael Knowles, Andrew Klavan, and Jeremy Boren can.
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00:41:24.000Jordan B. Peterson, Dennis Prager, and Spencer Clayton.
00:42:44.000She wrote a piece in the Wall Street Journal endorsing Trump.
00:42:46.000Now, there are a lot of hesitant Trump voters who kind of like Nikki Haley.
00:42:50.000They think that Nikki Haley is sort of a more sober-minded version of traditional Republicanism.
00:42:54.000Of course, she won a not insignificant share of the Republican primary vote when she ran against Trump in the primaries, and then she waited for a while to sort of endorse Trump.
00:43:01.000She has an entire piece in the Wall Street Journal that is titled, Trump isn't perfect, but he's the better choice, which, honestly, I think that's a good case for Trump.
00:43:35.000That seems to me the best pitch for Trump, and that's always been the best case pitch for Trump.
00:43:39.000Meanwhile, there are Kamala Harris's endorsers.
00:43:42.000So Kamala Harris's endorser to celebrities who went out there and sang their hearts out for Kamala.
00:43:47.000They're going to try and celebrity this thing all the way home.
00:43:51.000Now again, if this is the kind of thing that gets people out to vote, I've yet to see tremendous evidence that celebrity endorsements get people out to vote.
00:43:59.000Hillary Clinton tried the same trash by having a bunch of celebrities sing fight song for her in 2016.
00:47:38.000Here's Liz Cheney pretending that Kamala Harris is the repository of all goodness in the universe.
00:47:45.000I think that for all of us, I know for me, spending time with her, you know, it's been a real chance to say, wait a second.
00:47:51.000Like, we really need to take a step back and recognize that we share much more than divides us.
00:47:58.000And I just, you know, as I said, she is somebody, when you look at her career, when you look at the extent to which she has been devoted her whole career to public service.
00:48:10.000And I'm just, I'm very impressed with her.
00:48:15.000Or alternatively, is it that you have the strange new respect, Liz Cheney?
00:48:19.000Because I can guarantee you, one thing that wasn't happening before Liz Cheney backed Kamala Harris was members of The View saying that Liz Cheney should run the CIA or FBI. This is just amusing to me.
00:48:30.000So the daughter of Dick Cheney, who agrees with virtually all of Dick Cheney's foreign policy proposals...
00:48:36.000That person is the people the Democrats are now saying should run the CIA or FBI. Slow clap for the Democrats and their consistency here, guys.
00:48:42.000You're not just a bunch of political whores.
00:50:05.000The FBI had this sort of magic portal into the Twitter system, but all of the communication in this portal was auto-deleted after two weeks, which breaks federal FOIA laws.
00:50:19.000So we don't even know what was said, because it was deleted after two weeks.
00:50:23.000So, again, that is how things were run when Democrats were running it and when they had silenced Elon Musk.
00:50:28.000You think they're going to leave Musk intact?
00:50:34.000In fact, here was Rachel Maddow literally last night asking the federal government to target Elon Musk because he's heterodox.
00:50:42.000Even if Trump doesn't win, the Defense Department and NASA are going to need a new arrangement for all their rockets.
00:50:49.000And for all the multi-billion dollar contracts Elon Musk's companies have with the U.S. government, the U.S. government is going to have to either, I mean, unwind from all of those contracts, or Elon Musk's companies are going to have to unwind from him.
00:51:07.000This is an untenable reality in national security terms.
00:51:13.000Now that we know what we know about Elon Musk.
00:52:46.000When Republicans riot, it's typically because there has been a sort of a focus point of their ire for a particular reason.
00:52:54.000It can be a bad reason, but that's typically how the riots work, right?
00:52:57.000You have to call a bunch of people to Washington, D.C., and those people have to think that if they go into the Senate, they are going to be able to stop the certification of an election.
00:53:03.000That's like how a Republican riot happens.
00:53:07.000It's a Tuesday, and people find a reason to steal a TV. And that's exactly what is going to happen if Donald Trump wins.
00:53:13.000If Donald Trump wins, that's why they're boarding up in Washington, D.C. They're not boarding up near the White House because they're deeply afraid of all the MAGA-hatted Jussie Smollett assaulting Republicans in Washington, D.C. We know how this is going to go.
00:53:25.000That is why people are on edge in the big cities right now, is in case Trump wins.