The Ben Shapiro Show - Ep. 206 - The Final Prediction: Trump vs. Clinton

James Comey reveals a treasure trove of Hillary Clinton's emails, but doesn't charge her with a crime. Is she still a criminal? And why is the FBI letting her off the hook again? Ben Shapiro explains why the FBI is a political tool, and why no one trusts them anymore. Plus, a look at how the Democratic presidential candidates are using the FBI as a tool for their own political advantage. And a breakdown of how the 2016 election is going to come down to the popular vote. Ben Shapiro is a writer, comedian, and podcaster. His work has appeared on Comedy Central, HBO, and the New York Times. He is the host of the podcast and is a regular contributor on CNN and other media outlets. He is also a frequent contributor on the radio show on Fox News and NPR. Ben's new book, is out now, and is available for pre-order on Amazon Prime and Vimeo. Thanks for listening and share the podcast with your friends and family! Tweet me to let us know what you thought of this episode and what you're looking forward to in the future episodes of The Ben Shapiro Show! Timestamps: 5:00 - What s your favorite conspiracy theory? 6:30 - Is Hillary Clinton still a crooper? 7:15 - Why she should be charged? 8:20 - Is she guilty? 9:10 - Is the FBI corrupt? 10:00 11: What s she still innocent? 12:00 | Is she a criminal now? 13:15 15: Who s going to win the election? 16:00: Is she running for president? 17:40 - Does she have a path to win it? 18:40 19:10 21:30 22:30 Is she going to lose the election tomorrow? 23:00 Is she really running for re-election next time? 26:00 Do you think she s running for President? 27:00 Can she really have a chance of winning the election in 2016? 25:00 Does she deserve a chance to win in 2020 or is she s ? or not? 35: Is Hillary going to run for president in 2020? 36:00 Will she have any chance of a second term? 37:40 Can she win the White House in 2020??

00:00:00.000 So, FBI Director James Comey has now revealed that the 650,000 treasure trove of emails the FBI discovered on Anthony Weiner's laptop doesn't contain any information that would make him rethink his decision not to recommend indictment for Hillary Clinton.

00:00:13.000 According to the Washington Post, quote, the agents' work at first seemed endless.

00:00:16.000 They had to use special software to sift through 650,000 emails, but they accomplished this formidable task.

00:00:22.000 And then Comey announced that, quote, all of the communications that were to or from Hillary Clinton while she was Secretary of State had not changed our conclusions.

00:00:29.000 Most of the emails, but not all, reportedly duplicated other emails turned over by Clinton earlier or discovered by the FBI.

00:00:35.000 That statement, notably, did not say that the Clinton Foundation had been let off the hook.

00:00:39.000 It hasn't been.

00:00:40.000 New wiki leaks over the email demonstrate further corruption, from Hillary sending classified emails to her maid to print, to Chelsea allegedly using Foundation dollars to sponsor her wedding.

00:00:49.000 So, Hillary's still corrupt. 1.00

00:00:50.000 And yes, she's still a criminal. 1.00

00:00:52.000 And according to the Democrats, Hillary's back to being innocent, and Comey's back to being a saint-like wonder dude. 1.00

00:00:57.000 But the real question is this.

00:00:58.000 What in the world was James Comey thinking?

00:01:01.000 Well, in July, Comey refused to recommend Clinton for indictment.

00:01:04.000 He did so by changing the law itself, requiring a level of intent that simply did not exist in the regulations.

00:01:10.000 Those regulations demand merely proving gross negligence.

00:01:13.000 It's hard to get more grossly negligent with classified material

00:01:16.000 Then setting up a private server in a bathroom and then funneling classified information through it and making it vulnerable to hack in the process.

00:01:23.000 Or, by the way, sending that material to your higher janitorial help for printing.

00:01:26.000 It's no surprise Comey's let her off the hook again.

00:01:28.000 Once you change the standard of the law, you'd actually need to find an email from Hillary to Vladimir Putin sending him the names of American spies in order to indict her.

00:01:36.000 But here's what actually happened here.

00:01:37.000 Comey rushed to let her off, then he rushed to get himself off, then he rushed to let her off again when the polls went south. 0.80

00:01:43.000 No wonder nobody trusts the FBI now.

00:01:44.000 It's a political tool.

00:01:46.000 No matter what happens tomorrow, Hillary will never be trusted by the American people.

00:01:49.000 And nobody will trust James Comey or Loretta Lynch to do justice.

00:01:53.000 That means the American people won't give Hillary any sort of bully pulpit or any credibility when she makes her case to the American people. 1.00

00:02:00.000 Maybe, perhaps, that's the only good news to come from this horror show of an election.

00:02:04.000 I'm Ben Shapiro.

00:02:04.000 This is The Ben Shapiro Show.

00:02:10.000 So much to get to today here on the Ben Shapiro Show.

00:02:12.000 It is the day before election day, so I will give you my election prediction 2016.

00:02:17.000 I'll give you the state-by-state breakdown.

00:02:19.000 I'll tell you how I think the popular vote is going to come down.

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00:03:47.000 Okay.

00:03:47.000 So, lots going on in the world.

00:03:49.000 Nate Silver, who's sort of the elections guru, he says that Donald Trump is relatively close to a path to winning.

00:03:55.000 Here's what he had to say about Donald Trump's chances on Sunday.

00:03:58.000 So we show about a three-point lead nationally for Clinton, and she's about a two-to-one favorite.

00:04:04.000 The Electoral College math is actually less solid for Clinton than it was for Obama four years ago, where four years ago we had Obama ahead in states totaling 320-some electoral votes.

00:04:14.000 Clinton has about 270, so she's one state away from potentially losing Electoral College. 1.00

00:04:20.000 You'd rather be in her shoes than Donald Trump's, but it's not a terribly

00:04:26.000 Okay, so he says 65.7% chance of winning.

00:04:33.000 And he says that Trump does have a path.

00:04:35.000 That basically he's one state away from winning.

00:04:38.000 This is reflective of the polls over the weekend.

00:04:40.000 So basically, in order for Trump to win, he has to win North Carolina.

00:04:42.000 He has to win Florida.

00:04:44.000 He has to win Ohio, he has to win Nevada, and then he has to win New Hampshire.

00:04:47.000 And if he wins one of the votes in Maine, then he takes the election.

00:04:50.000 That is his most plausible path to victory in this election cycle, which means this sucker could be over early.

00:04:55.000 It is possible that this is over, you know, very early in the evening.

00:04:59.000 If he loses New Hampshire and North Carolina, he can kiss this election goodnight.

00:05:03.000 It's donezo.

00:05:04.000 It's over.

00:05:04.000 Turn out the lights.

00:05:06.000 Four years of Hillary Clinton's horror show. 0.82

00:05:08.000 Okay, so that's where Nate Silver puts this election.

00:05:12.000 The Democrats

00:05:13.000 Either don't seem particularly certain of this election or they're just trying to gin their base to get out by saying it's closer than it is.

00:05:19.000 John Podesta says that he thinks that Hillary can hold Michigan.

00:05:22.000 She certainly should hold Michigan.

00:05:23.000 She's up like five or six points in Michigan.

00:05:25.000 Now we're going to Michigan, to New Hampshire, to Pennsylvania where they do it the old-fashioned way. 0.97

00:05:30.000 Everybody votes on election day.

00:05:32.000 We feel like we got a lead in Michigan.

00:05:34.000 We want to hold on to it and we think we can do that.

00:05:37.000 Okay, so he says that they're going to hold on to Michigan, and I think that in all likelihood they will.

00:05:42.000 Mike Pence is saying Republicans are coming home.

00:05:44.000 This is shown by the statistics.

00:05:46.000 Republicans are coming back to Trump in the late days of the election because, for most people, politics ends up being a team sport.

00:05:52.000 You're just going to vote for the person with the name of the party by their name.

00:05:56.000 Pence makes the case for Trump in the closing hours here.

00:05:59.000 We're good to go.

00:06:31.000 Okay, so there are a couple of things that people are questioning about the polls.

00:06:35.000 One is they don't know what the turnout's actually going to be like.

00:06:37.000 Is there the secret base of Trump voters who are going to show up out of the woodwork and just vote for Trump?

00:06:42.000 I think that's unlikely.

00:06:43.000 I do.

00:06:43.000 I mean, I've yet to meet a closeted Trump supporter.

00:06:46.000 They don't really exist, as far as I can tell.

00:06:48.000 Trump supporters tend to be very loud and very proud about who they're voting for.

00:06:51.000 I'm not seeing a lot of people, even in California,

00:06:54.000 And this is anecdotal, to be sure, but now we're talking in the realm of anecdotal because there are no real statistical studies.

00:06:59.000 But I really doubt, I do doubt that there are a lot of Trump supporters who are simply lying to pollsters or they're not registering in the polls.

00:07:09.000 The other possibility is a lot of the independents are going to swing to Trump, and the polls are not really supporting that idea either.

00:07:14.000 So now I'm going to give you my breakdown of how I think this election is actually going to go.

00:07:18.000 So here is my prediction, and you can take it to the bank or not, as the case may be.

00:07:22.000 Here's where I think this comes down to.

00:07:24.000 So, in order for Trump to win, as I say, he has to win North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada, and then he has to win one more state.

00:07:30.000 New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania.

00:07:33.000 All the talk about Minnesota.

00:07:35.000 It ain't gonna happen.

00:07:35.000 He's gonna get blown out in Minnesota.

00:07:36.000 So, let's go through those really quickly.

00:07:39.000 North Carolina.

00:07:39.000 So far, 3 million ballots have been cast in North Carolina, which is a little bit more than were cast in early voting in 2012.

00:07:45.000 It was like 2.8 million in 2012.

00:07:48.000 The Hispanic turnout is up a little bit, which is good news for Hillary. 1.00

00:07:52.000 The black turnout is apparently down rather dramatically, which is really bad news for Hillary Clinton because she needs the black turnout in order to drive her over the top. 0.98

00:07:59.000 Nate Cohn of the New York Times estimated as of October 31st, he said about 2.9 million people had voted in North Carolina.

00:08:05.000 Out of the 4.6 million who would eventually vote.

00:08:08.000 So that's a huge number of people who vote early in North Carolina.

00:08:11.000 He says, based on the voting history and demographic characteristics of those people, we think Hillary leads in North Carolina by about 6 percentage points. 0.90

00:08:18.000 That seems real high to me.

00:08:19.000 538 gives Hillary a 50.6% shot to beat Trump in North Carolina. 0.96

00:08:24.000 Now I will say, Trump doesn't have a ground game.

00:08:26.000 So it's possible the polls are off in the other direction as well, that the Democrats are really going to get out to vote, they're going to send people to bus people to the polls, they're going to make sure all their elderly voters get out to vote, and the turnout game is what decides North Carolina.

00:08:38.000 I think that Hillary will end up winning North Carolina, but I do think that it'll be very close, and I think that

00:08:44.000 Richard Burr, who's the senator from North Carolina, may end up maintaining his seat.

00:08:47.000 He's the Republican.

00:08:48.000 In Florida, it's also basically a dead heat.

00:08:51.000 According to FiveThirtyEight, it's essentially a dead heat in Florida between Clinton and Trump.

00:08:55.000 There's been some conflicting information about the early voting.

00:08:58.000 Originally, there was a case being made that the early voting was really good for Trump.

00:09:02.000 In the last four days, the early voting has shifted a little bit more toward Hillary Clinton. 0.90

00:09:05.000 Apparently, very, very heavy Hispanic turnout.

00:09:08.000 In the early voting in Florida.

00:09:09.000 Apparently some 6.1 million ballots have already been cast in the state of Florida.

00:09:13.000 Democrats lead Republicans by just half a percentage point.

00:09:17.000 There's a poll out today that shows that people who plan on voting election day are gonna vote heavily Trump.

00:09:21.000 The question is how many of those people there are and how heavily Trump that is.

00:09:26.000 So this one is definitely up in the air.

00:09:28.000 But if Hispanics vote disproportionately in Florida, and they're not all Cuban Hispanics, then it's possible that Trump loses Florida as well.

00:09:37.000 I think that he's going to lose both North Carolina and Florida.

00:09:39.000 It's a pessimistic vision for Trump.

00:09:41.000 But again, he hasn't spent any time building a ground game, so I think that's likely.

00:09:44.000 Ohio, I think Trump will win.

00:09:46.000 CNN says that Hillary trails Obama's number substantially in the early voting. 0.99

00:09:50.000 538 gives him a 65% chance of winning the state.

00:09:53.000 That's solid enough for me.

00:09:55.000 I will say that Trump wins Ohio.

00:09:56.000 I think he's going to win Iowa as well.

00:09:59.000 He's up big in Iowa.

00:10:00.000 The latest poll from the Des Moines Register gives him a seven point lead there.

00:10:04.000 In Nevada, Clinton is going to win. 1.00

00:10:05.000 So before Trump was up pretty big, or at least he had drawn into the lead in the last few weeks, last three, four weeks, Hillary has a major advantage in the early voting. 1.00

00:10:15.000 According to John Ralston, who does elections analysis,

00:10:18.000 For one of the local news stations in Vegas, he says about 770,000 votes have been cast, which is about two-thirds of the entire vote in the state of Nevada.

00:10:26.000 If you suppose an election day turnout of 450,000 voters, Trump needs to win on Tuesday by 10 points to win.

00:10:32.000 This is almost impossible.

00:10:33.000 So assume that he loses Nevada.

00:10:35.000 Now remember, these are all states he needs to win.

00:10:37.000 If he loses one of these states, he's done.

00:10:39.000 He has to win all of these states.

00:10:40.000 He cannot afford to lose any of these states unless he's going to win one of the outliers like Michigan or Pennsylvania.

00:10:45.000 We'll get to those in just a second.

00:10:47.000 In New Hampshire,

00:10:49.000 New Hampshire is apparently really close right now in the latest polling average, but you sort of have to look over the last year.

00:10:54.000 For the last year, Hillary led New Hampshire by as much as double digits. 0.86

00:10:57.000 There's about a one-week spate right after the Comey announcement of the renewed FBI investigation, where suddenly Trump was ahead by anywhere from one to three points.

00:11:04.000 Now there are a couple new polls that show Hillary back up. 1.00

00:11:07.000 I think that Clinton is probably going to win New Hampshire.

00:11:09.000 Colorado, Clinton is going to match Obama's numbers in the early voting.

00:11:12.000 That means that she's probably going to win Colorado. 1.00

00:11:14.000 Virginia, which used to be a Republican state,

00:11:16.000 Has not voted Republican now, probably for the last 12 years.

00:11:19.000 The last time they voted Republican was 2004.

00:11:21.000 A lot of the people who live in Washington, D.C.

00:11:24.000 have moved into suburban Virginia, and they've been infusing northern Virginia with this blue feel, so Virginia's likely to go for Hillary Clinton. 1.00

00:11:31.000 Wisconsin polling looks bad for Trump.

00:11:33.000 Michigan polling looks bad for Trump.

00:11:34.000 He's spending an awful lot of time there.

00:11:35.000 You saw Podesta a minute ago saying that he thinks that Hillary's going to pull it out.

00:11:39.000 I think that she's going to win by a relatively large margin there. 0.98

00:11:42.000 Pennsylvania, Clinton is expected to win there. 0.99

00:11:45.000 538 gives Trump a 23% likelihood of a pickup.

00:11:48.000 So, I know, I'm not going to give you the rah-rah speech today. 0.99

00:11:50.000 I'm not going to lie to you about what's happening here.

00:11:52.000 I'm not going to lie to you that Trump is on the verge of victory.

00:11:54.000 I don't think he is.

00:11:55.000 I think there are some other people, you know, who have been suggesting otherwise.

00:11:59.000 I know there's a piece by Henry Olson over at National Review where he says the polls aren't taking into account the factors I mentioned before.

00:12:06.000 You know, the

00:12:07.000 Turnout game from Trump, the idea of the missing Trump voter who is secretly hiding and just hiding from pollsters in a basement somewhere.

00:12:14.000 I don't think that's real.

00:12:16.000 My final tally is I think that Trump ends up with 217 electoral votes.

00:12:19.000 I think Hillary ends up with 322 electoral votes, which means he wins slightly more electoral votes than Romney did and more obviously than McCain did, but still gets blown out in pretty handy fashion.

00:12:31.000 That's in the Electoral College.

00:12:33.000 I think in the popular vote, he will lose by more than Romney did.

00:12:36.000 I think he's going to win Iowa.

00:12:37.000 I think he'll probably win Ohio.

00:12:38.000 Maybe not.

00:12:39.000 But I think that he will certainly win Iowa.

00:12:41.000 I don't know if he's going to win Ohio.

00:12:43.000 But in any case, in the popular vote, I think that people are underestimating the level of hatred that Democrats and leftists have for Trump.

00:12:50.000 And it's not just because they think he's conservative, OK?

00:12:52.000 They would have hated Cruz also or Rubio.

00:12:54.000 It's because of who Trump is.

00:12:56.000 They don't like the stuff that Trump says.

00:12:57.000 I think some of that is justified. 0.97

00:12:59.000 They think Trump is an unpalatable nutjob. 0.94

00:13:02.000 I think that about a quarter of that is, I think, unpalatable is right. 0.98

00:13:05.000 Nutjob, I think, is a little bit less charitable.

00:13:08.000 But in any case, I think that you're going to see heavy turnout in places like New York and California, just as a way for leftists to virtue signal to their friends that they voted against Trump.

00:13:17.000 So I think that the popular vote margin will be larger than Romney, even though right now the popular vote margin, the polls show anywhere from 2.9 to 3.3 points in the spread.

00:13:27.000 I think that the final result is going to be something like Hillary Clinton 49 or 50 to Donald Trump 44.

00:13:32.000 I think it'll be a five or six point victory, which is a pretty sweeping victory for Hillary Clinton. 1.00

00:13:37.000 All of this should make you pretty sad, given the fact that we didn't have to nominate this guy.

00:13:42.000 There's a poll out today that shows what would have happened if we'd nominated, for example, Mitt Romney, who I didn't support for the nomination.

00:13:48.000 If we had nominated Mitt Romney, he would have clobbered Clinton 50 to 40.

00:13:54.000 If Obama had run against Trump, by the way, this is why you can't trust the people who say, well, look, Trump's a better candidate than Romney.

00:13:59.000 He's going to win more electoral votes.

00:14:01.000 He's not running against Barack Obama. 1.00

00:14:03.000 He's running against Hillary Clinton, legitimately the worst major party nominee in the history of American politics, except for the moron we ran. 0.99

00:14:11.000 So it's just it's devastating. 0.99

00:14:13.000 If Obama had run against Trump, he would have beaten him, according to these polls, 53 to 41.

00:14:18.000 53 to 41, which is just devastating.

00:14:20.000 So that's how the polls stack up.

00:14:22.000 That's how all of this stacks up.

00:14:24.000 Now, I want to go through, and we will go through in just a moment, sort of the final arguments on both sides.

00:14:30.000 Because if there's been one thing that's true of this election, it's that every negative thing that each side says about the other is true.

00:14:35.000 Everything they say about themselves is a lie.

00:14:38.000 And we'll go through that, and we'll talk about what impact that has on our politics in just a moment.

00:14:41.000 But first, we have to say hello to our friends over at Birch Gold.

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00:14:53.000 There's a good case to be made that there's a recession in the United States every eight to ten years, which means that we're due.

00:14:57.000 If there is to be a recession, it'll probably hit the stock market and the real estate market.

00:15:01.000 What it won't hit is gold.

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00:15:27.000 Okay, so the media, just to point this out, what this

00:15:47.000 Election has done.

00:15:48.000 People wanted this to be the burn it all down election.

00:15:51.000 And in a sense they got exactly what they were looking for.

00:15:52.000 Everything was burned down.

00:15:53.000 Some for the good, some for the ill.

00:15:55.000 For the ill, I would say that conservatism has been burned out, hollowed out from the inside by a lot of the Trump movement.

00:16:00.000 Although I think that after this election,

00:16:02.000 I think?

00:16:19.000 But in the meantime, conservatism has been harmed pretty severely by the Trump candidacy.

00:16:23.000 That's a bad thing.

00:16:24.000 But on the good side, the media have just fallen apart.

00:16:26.000 So it has now been revealed, and this really is amazing, that apparently, apparently, this is according to media, DNC Research Director Lauren Dillon sent a pair of emails to CNN staffers with the hope that they would use her emails, these questions that she wrote for them, to ask Donald Trump.

00:16:44.000 The first email had the subject line, Trump questions for CNN, and it says, Wolf Blitzer is interviewing Trump on Tuesday ahead of his foreign policy address on Wednesday.

00:16:53.000 Please send me thoughts by 1030 a.m.

00:16:55.000 tomorrow.

00:16:55.000 This is from Lauren Dillon, the DNC research director.

00:16:59.000 She wrote that to her folks.

00:17:02.000 The idea being that she was then going to funnel those questions over to CNN and they would ask the questions.

00:17:06.000 There's another letter that suggested the same thing about Ted Cruz.

00:17:09.000 That letter said, it was from Dylan to her friend, said, CNN is looking for questions.

00:17:13.000 Please send some topical, interesting ones, maybe a couple on Fiorina.

00:17:16.000 Someone please take point and send them all together.

00:17:18.000 By 3 p.m.

00:17:19.000 So, in other words, the DNC was directly coordinating with people over at CNN to ask questions to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.

00:17:25.000 That is an amazing thing.

00:17:27.000 The media have destroyed all their credibility.

00:17:29.000 That may be the only good thing about this election cycle.

00:17:31.000 The Democrats' credibility has also been destroyed, by the way.

00:17:34.000 And we'll get to that in just a second as we see the Democrats' final pitch.

00:17:37.000 But to see that, you have to go to dailywire.com and become a subscriber.

00:17:41.000 I mean, just do it.

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The Ben Shapiro Show - November 11, 2016

Ep. 206 - The Final Prediction: Trump vs. Clinton

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