The Ben Shapiro Show - March 29, 2017


Ep. 276 - Begun, The War On Conservatives Has


Episode Stats

Length

21 minutes

Words per Minute

204.04669

Word Count

4,370

Sentence Count

314

Misogynist Sentences

2


Summary

Trumpcare failed to pass the House of Representatives, and now the focus turns to tax reform. Will tax reform be any easier for President Trump to get through Congress than health care reform? Here are 5 things you need to know about tax reform and why it won t be as easy as it seems. 1. Deficit matters. Tax reform, lowering the tax rate, will increase the deficit in the short term, even if the supply-side logic that economic growth will increase tax revenues pays off in the long term. 2. Trump loves tariffs. But what happens when free traders in Congress object? What happens when the World Trade Organization says the border adjustment tax breaks its rules? 3. Trump has very little leverage at this point. 4. Democrats are not going to work with Trump. 5. Trump seems to think that if Republicans don t work with him, they think he's silly. Well, it'd be hard for it to be worse than a Gordian knot, but it won't be much better than a 10% approval rating for the president, will it be hard to get him to compromise on tax reform? And what s going to happen if he doesn t compromise on his core priorities? Can he get the votes he needs to get something done? or will he just keep failing to get anything done, no matter how hard he tries? Is there any chance he can get any traction from either side of the aisle? Or is he just going to have to get it done at all? If he doesn't get any support from either of his own party, is he going to get his act together? ? Or will he go back to his base or not get any of it? any chance at all at least get any at all, at least not much at all ? or at least any chance or is it going to be better than he s gonna get a chance to get any kind of deal at all on his base to get some semblance of a chance at anything at all?? Is he s just not getting any chance to do anything at all he saving him on his agenda at all in the first place and he s not getting a deal? Will he just a deal he s getting a chance or not even a deal on his name? in this episode? Learn more about it here on this episode of The Five Things He Can Do It?


Transcript

00:00:00.000 After President Trump's devastating political defeat over Trumpcare, and his vow not to return to healthcare in its wake, Trump allies say that he will move next on tax reform.
00:00:08.000 That was an open question, actually, since Trump has also talked in sterling terms about a huge infrastructure bill that would dump a trillion bucks into public works.
00:00:15.000 But, given the Trumpcare political circular firing squad, will tax reform be any easier for Trump to ram through Congress?
00:00:21.000 Here are five things you need to know.
00:00:23.000 First, deficit matters.
00:00:25.000 One of the first prominent Republican talking points during the Obama era was that Obama had blown out the deficit, which of course he had.
00:00:31.000 The national debt was $10.6 trillion when Obama took office.
00:00:34.000 It was almost $20 trillion when Obama left office.
00:00:36.000 Tax reform, lowering the tax rate, will increase the deficit in the short term, even if the supply-side logic that economic growth will increase tax revenues pays off in the long term.
00:00:45.000 That means Republicans are going to have to contend with the slew of headlines that they're blowing out spending, even if they're just letting people keep their own money.
00:00:51.000 And that's if they don't use budget reconciliation.
00:00:54.000 If they do use the process known as budget reconciliation, they'll have to demonstrate that their plan won't increase the deficit over the next 10 years to only need 51 votes.
00:01:02.000 And the projected savings from Trumpcare, $1 trillion over 10 years supposedly, won't be available as an excuse to cut taxes since Trumpcare didn't pass, and since that estimate wasn't actually true.
00:01:12.000 Tax reform advocate Grover Norquist says Trumpcare's failure will only allow the top marginal tax rate to drop to 28% rather than 20% on this basis.
00:01:21.000 Second, Trump has sent mixed messages on taxes.
00:01:23.000 During the campaign, Trump's tax plan was one of the best among all Republican candidates.
00:01:27.000 He called for dramatic lowering of all of the top tax brackets.
00:01:30.000 But, in 2011, Trump said, quote, I don't mind sacrificing for the country, to be honest with you.
00:01:35.000 Before he rolled out his campaign plan, he talked openly about raising taxes on the highest income earners.
00:01:40.000 He said,
00:01:41.000 I would let people who are making hundreds of thousands of dollars a year pay some tax.
00:01:46.000 I don't mind paying a little more in taxes.
00:02:12.000 Never mind that the top 20% of income earners pay 84% of all federal income taxes and nearly all of the net federal income tax.
00:02:19.000 Third, Trump loves tariffs.
00:02:20.000 So Trump thinks trade is a zero-sum game, a mercantilist position that has been debunked repeatedly by economists.
00:02:25.000 But that means he thinks that American companies can only benefit if we tax imports and subsidize exports.
00:02:31.000 Trump's plain and simple tariff plan has now been turned into something slightly more acceptable by the Republican Congress, the Border Adjustment Tax, which is essentially a value-added tax all of Europe.
00:02:40.000 Investment returns aren't tariffed, but all goods sold in the U.S.
00:02:43.000 are taxed at 20%, including investment goods, while the corporate tax is lowered.
00:02:48.000 That means a subsidy for exporting companies and a penalty for importers, even importers who buy products to use in exports.
00:02:54.000 This should raise the value of the dollar and buy an equivalent amount to the tax.
00:02:57.000 It also punishes importers.
00:02:59.000 But as William Gale of the Brookings Institution explains, quote,
00:03:06.000 The border adjustment would have no effect on the trade balance, the level of exports, the level of imports, the domestic price level, or the net profitability of importers and exporters.
00:03:15.000 Trump may embrace the border adjustment tax as a substitute for his tariff love, particularly since he doesn't seem to understand the intricacies of the border adjustment tax.
00:03:22.000 But what happens when free traders in Congress object, saying that importing American companies like Walmart shouldn't be penalized?
00:03:29.000 Or what happens when the World Trade Organization says the border adjustment tax breaks its rules, and Trump tries to ram it through anyway, calling those who oppose him globalists?
00:03:37.000 Fourth, Trump has very little leverage with Republicans at this point.
00:03:40.000 Trump threatened Republicans to pass Trumpcare.
00:03:42.000 Instead, he had to pull his bill because it appeared he'd be short by up to 40 votes in the House.
00:03:46.000 Trump's desire to rush the bill, his obvious lack of knowledge on the bill, his mixed messaging on its contents, all of it combined to undercut his leverage.
00:03:53.000 His leverage isn't going to grow on tax reform, particularly given all the interest involved.
00:03:57.000 Finally, Democrats are not going to work with Trump.
00:04:00.000 Trump seems to think that if Republicans won't work with him, Democrats will.
00:04:03.000 That's silly.
00:04:03.000 Democrats despise Trump.
00:04:05.000 They think he's weak.
00:04:05.000 They won't be able to answer to a base with a below 10% approval rating for the president.
00:04:10.000 So, is tax reform going to go better than health care reform?
00:04:13.000 Well, it'd be hard for it to go worse.
00:04:14.000 Some sort of deal is more likely to be hammered out for sure, but it won't be Trump just cutting the Gordian knot.
00:04:18.000 It will be a knotty, complex thicket.
00:04:21.000 The biggest question right now is whether Trump has the patience to actually push something through.
00:04:25.000 I'm Ben Shapiro.
00:04:25.000 This is The Ben Shapiro Show.
00:04:31.000 Wow.
00:04:31.000 When last we left our saga, it was totally unclear as to whether the bill would pass.
00:04:36.000 Whether, in fact, the Republicans would be able to pass Trumpcare.
00:04:40.000 The answer, it turns out, was no.
00:04:42.000 And we're going to get to all the ramifications of that, including, most importantly, as Yoda suggests,
00:04:49.000 Except now it's the war on Republicans, the war on conservatives particularly, not the war on Republicans.
00:05:01.000 The war on conservatives has begun and we'll talk all about that because Trump is actually leading that war.
00:05:06.000 This is what some of us had feared, but we'll get to that in just a second.
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00:06:29.000 Okay.
00:06:31.000 So, again, when last we left our story, it was not clear.
00:06:34.000 It was Thursday, so we had to leave before the apex of the story, before the climax of the story, and the story climaxed with Trumpcare going down to flaming defeat.
00:06:45.000 And it went down to flaming defeat because it was a crappy bill.
00:06:48.000 Let's be frank about this.
00:06:49.000 There's a lot of blame to go around.
00:06:50.000 The people who are not to blame, the only people who are not to blame in this whole situation are the people who took seriously the promises that they made to the American people over and over and over again for seven years that they were going to repeal Obamacare.
00:07:02.000 Not replace it with Obamacare Light, not replace it with Obamacare Part 2.0, not replace it with a new subsidy, not replace it with a new entitlement program,
00:07:09.000 Not replace it with the same central regulations that Obamacare maintained?
00:07:13.000 No, no, no.
00:07:13.000 The people who are honest, the people who are not to blame here, are the people who are not lying to you.
00:07:18.000 Namely, the people in the House Freedom Caucus.
00:07:20.000 So who's getting blamed?
00:07:21.000 Any guesses?
00:07:22.000 That's right.
00:07:23.000 The House Freedom Caucus, of course.
00:07:24.000 Because if you have the gall to cross Donald Trump, that means that you must pay the price.
00:07:30.000 Now, it is worthwhile noting, it was not just the House Freedom Caucus that opposed this bill.
00:07:34.000 Apparently the reason that it was pulled is it wasn't even close.
00:07:36.000 So Republicans right now have like a 40-seat majority in the House.
00:07:40.000 They could have lost 22 votes on this thing and still been able to pass it.
00:07:43.000 They didn't.
00:07:43.000 They were losing something close to 50 or 60 votes on this thing.
00:07:47.000 Not only the Freedom Caucus.
00:07:48.000 A lot of moderates didn't like it.
00:07:50.000 The moderates didn't like it because the CBO score on this thing sucked.
00:07:52.000 It was wildly unpopular.
00:07:54.000 17% of Americans were approving of Trumpcare.
00:07:57.000 Okay, that was much less popular than Obamacare, even when Obamacare passed, and that was an unpopular piece of legislation.
00:08:02.000 When Obamacare passed, it was at 40% in the approval ratings.
00:08:06.000 Trumpcare was at 17% in the approval ratings.
00:08:09.000 So it's political suicide for a lot of these members to vote for this crappy bill.
00:08:13.000 I don't
00:08:28.000 The radically shifting logic about Donald Trump in order to make excuses for the fact that he did a pretty terrible job pushing this bill, it's pretty amazing.
00:08:36.000 I want to go through each player in this drama and explain what they did right and what they did wrong, and who deserves the blame.
00:08:42.000 But right now, all fire is focused on the conservatives, and Donald Trump and his team are openly saying that they now want to pander to Democrats, that they want to turn to the left.
00:08:50.000 And we'll get to that in just a little while.
00:08:52.000 But first, first, what did Trump do wrong?
00:08:55.000 Here's what Trump did wrong.
00:08:56.000 Trump had no ass on this.
00:08:57.000 What I mean by that is that Trump did not have the patience to sit for 13 months and hash out a deal the way Obama did with Obamacare.
00:09:04.000 Obama was a terrible president.
00:09:05.000 He was.
00:09:06.000 But the man at least had ass enough to sit around for 13 months and hash out a deal with his own people for 13 months.
00:09:12.000 13 months!
00:09:14.000 Donald Trump gave the sucker about 13 days.
00:09:17.000 Really, it was like 17 days from inception to failure.
00:09:20.000 And that was after seven years of planning.
00:09:22.000 Why was that?
00:09:23.000 Well, the reason was because Trump signaled to Ryan he didn't have the ass to do this for 17 months or 13 months or 13 minutes.
00:09:30.000 He signaled to Ryan, you better give me what I want.
00:09:32.000 We better get this thing through fast.
00:09:33.000 I don't want to spend political capital on this.
00:09:34.000 I don't want to be going into the midterm elections talking about this.
00:09:37.000 I don't want to be going into re-election talking about this.
00:09:39.000 And I don't want to pay the political price
00:09:41.000 For repealing Obamacare, if it means that my promises that I should never have made about health insurance aren't able to come true.
00:09:47.000 So Ryan immediately went to the drawing board.
00:09:49.000 He negotiated with himself, right?
00:09:51.000 He didn't go and put together a national coalition.
00:09:53.000 He didn't have time for that.
00:09:55.000 And he didn't have time to coordinate with McConnell or with the House Freedom Caucus.
00:09:59.000 Trump didn't bother to actually have these people over for dinner and try and talk with them until the last five minutes before the bill was rammed through.
00:10:05.000 Even when it was rammed through, he then deployed the absolute
00:10:09.000 We're good to go.
00:10:25.000 Trump didn't care about this issue.
00:10:26.000 Trump made a bunch of false promises about this particular issue.
00:10:30.000 You can't have repeal of Obamacare without a death spiral.
00:10:34.000 You can't repeal the individual mandate without a death spiral unless you're willing to relieve the central regulations in Obamacare.
00:10:39.000 Trump was not willing to do that, and so Trump tried to ram through a bill that was bad, and then he disowned the thing.
00:10:45.000 Tom Cotton got this pretty much right.
00:10:46.000 The senator from Arkansas.
00:10:47.000 He said, look, you cannot release a plan in 18 days and hope that this thing is going to go through.
00:10:51.000 The biggest broken promise in political history.
00:10:54.000 What's your reaction to that judgment?
00:10:56.000 Well, John, first I'd say the President is right that the Democrats gave us Obamacare and the failure of this bill this week doesn't solve the problems of Obamacare.
00:11:05.000 It's continuing to get worse and our health care system is groaning under the weight of Obamacare.
00:11:09.000 So we have to revisit it.
00:11:11.000 We now have the time to do it in a more deliberate and careful fashion.
00:11:14.000 But ultimately I don't think you can lay the defeat of this bill last week on any single faction in the House of Representatives.
00:11:20.000 Some conservatives opposed it.
00:11:21.000 Some moderates opposed it.
00:11:22.000 Even chairmen of powerful committees opposed it.
00:11:25.000 I just think the problem was with first the bill and then the process.
00:11:28.000 Healthcare is a very complicated issue.
00:11:30.000 To release a bill that was written in secret and then expect to pass it in 18 days, I just don't think was feasible.
00:11:36.000 And so the reason that it had to be passed in 18 days is because of Trump.
00:11:39.000 Because Trump wanted it now.
00:11:40.000 He wanted what he wanted now.
00:11:41.000 And he wasn't going to take no for an answer.
00:11:43.000 And so Ryan had two choices.
00:11:45.000 He could either go and do all the hard slogging
00:11:47.000 We're good to go.
00:12:08.000 I don't believe what Mick Mulvaney, the Office of Management and Budget, what he had to say.
00:12:12.000 He said, oh yeah, the problem here is that Trump just didn't think that D.C.
00:12:14.000 was this broken.
00:12:27.000 Yeah, I think there's probably plenty of blame to go around.
00:12:29.000 As we sat over the last two days and tried to figure out what happened, I think what happened is that Washington won.
00:12:35.000 I think the one thing we learned this week is that Washington was a lot more broken than President Trump thought that it was.
00:12:41.000 This is nonsense.
00:12:42.000 President Trump ran on the promise that Washington, D.C.
00:12:44.000 was broken and he could fix it immediately.
00:12:46.000 He doesn't have the patience to actually fix it.
00:12:48.000 It's not an easy process.
00:12:49.000 It's not something where you can come in and just use your big businessman skills and cut the Gordian knot.
00:12:54.000 That's not how this works.
00:12:55.000 So that's the blame that Trump bears is really a character flaw with him, which is that he has a lack of attention.
00:13:01.000 He didn't care about these issues to begin with.
00:13:03.000 He didn't have the ass to sit there for 13 months and actually just put together a bill that would work.
00:13:07.000 Now, the other person who's to blame here mostly is Paul Ryan.
00:13:11.000 Paul Ryan absolutely is to blame here.
00:13:13.000 Paul Ryan is the one who decided to go along with Trump's shortened timeline, his stupid timeline.
00:13:17.000 It was a dumb timeline.
00:13:19.000 He's the one who decided that instead of going and negotiating with all the various parties, I mean, Paul Ryan's been there for a while.
00:13:24.000 He could have spent the past few months going to all the available parties and talking with them about what can pass and what can't, going to the Freedom Caucus and saying what can pass and what can't.
00:13:32.000 Instead, he didn't.
00:13:33.000 He waited for Trump to become president, and then he tried to rush this thing through in about five minutes.
00:13:37.000 That is Paul Ryan's fault.
00:13:38.000 It is his job to cobble together a bill that people can actually vote for.
00:13:41.000 Instead, he cobbled together the single most unpopular bill I have ever seen proposed in front of the House Republicans by House Republicans.
00:13:48.000 It's astonishing.
00:13:48.000 I mean, do you understand how crazy it is?
00:13:50.000 I mean, John Boehner did this a couple of times, but you understand how crazy it is that Paul Ryan, who's supposed to be the consensus guy, the guy who had to be begged into being Speaker of the House, couldn't put together a bill better than this?
00:14:00.000 So, naturally, this led to some controversy.
00:14:03.000 Everybody has sort of been expecting Trump to dump Paul Ryan under the bus, because Ryan is allied with Reince Priebus in the White House, and Steve Bannon doesn't like Reince Priebus or Paul Ryan, and so there's been a lot of Machiavellian manipulations here.
00:14:15.000 So over the weekend, Donald Trump tweeted that he wanted everybody to watch Judge Jeanine Pirro.
00:14:20.000 And people didn't know what he was talking about.
00:14:22.000 There was one theory that was plausible that suggested that he was talking about Judge Jeanine was supposed to reveal something about the leaks investigation or something.
00:14:31.000 But Trump saw that because there was like a little chyron on Fox.
00:14:34.000 The other theory is that he told people to watch Judge Jeanine because he knew Judge Jeanine was going to lead off with this rant.
00:14:39.000 So here's Judge Jeanine.
00:14:40.000 Paul Ryan needs to step down as Speaker of the House.
00:14:47.000 The reason?
00:14:48.000 He failed to deliver the votes on his health care bill.
00:14:53.000 You know, Americans elected the one man they believed could do it.
00:14:58.000 A complete outsider.
00:15:00.000 Someone beholding to no one but them.
00:15:04.000 Trump's team said that this was all a big coincidence.
00:15:06.000 They didn't mean to tell people through Jeanine Pirro that Paul Ryan should be fired.
00:15:11.000 Should Paul Ryan step down?
00:15:12.000 No, I don't see why Paul Ryan should step down.
00:15:14.000 I just think that he shouldn't push crappy legislation in the future.
00:15:17.000 John Boehner should have stepped down because John Boehner actually wanted to negotiate with Democrats to ram through things.
00:15:21.000 If Paul Ryan starts to do that, if Paul Ryan follows the pattern here, I think that it's going to be a serious problem.
00:15:27.000 Priebus came out.
00:15:27.000 He said that the tweet about Ryan was coincidental.
00:15:30.000 Well, first of all, I will go on record, we do love Judge Jeanine, and so does the President.
00:15:35.000 I think it was more coincidental, Chris.
00:15:37.000 Oh, come on.
00:15:39.000 I did not talk to the President about the tweet.
00:15:41.000 I'm just telling you the truth.
00:15:43.000 There was no pre-planning here.
00:15:46.000 You didn't pre-plan it, but why would he say, watch her, and then that's the first thing out of our minds?
00:15:50.000 Because he loves Judge Jeanine, and he wanted to do Judge Jeanine a favor.
00:15:53.000 So does he want Paul Ryan to step down?
00:15:55.000 No, he doesn't.
00:15:56.000 Okay, we can stop it there.
00:15:57.000 Of course, Reince Priebus is going to be saying that.
00:15:58.000 I'd be more assured if Steve Bannon were saying that, because Steve Bannon actually hates Paul Ryan, whereas Reince Priebus is from Wisconsin and is close friends with Paul Ryan.
00:16:05.000 Well, I want to get to the House Freedom Caucus and Trump attacking them in just one second.
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00:17:36.000 Okay, so the reason all of this fighting, infighting has broken out is because President Trump
00:17:42.000 Refuses to let the buck stop with him.
00:17:44.000 So again, this is one character flaw for Trump.
00:17:47.000 He never just says, okay, my bad.
00:17:49.000 We should have done this differently.
00:17:50.000 Back to the drawing board.
00:17:50.000 Instead, he issued an ultimatum last Thursday in which he said, if we don't get a vote right now, we're not going to do anything on health care because he didn't want to deal with the problem.
00:17:58.000 And then he blamed the Freedom Caucus.
00:17:59.000 So here is what Trump tweeted about the Freedom Caucus.
00:18:02.000 He tweeted, Democrats are smiling in D.C.
00:18:04.000 that the Freedom Caucus, with the help of Club for Growth and Heritage, have saved Planned Parenthood and Ocare.
00:18:10.000 This is absolutely galling and disgusting.
00:18:12.000 The only people who saved Planned Parenthood and the funding for Obamacare and all the rest of it are Donald Trump and Paul Ryan and all the people who wanted to push this crappy bill.
00:18:20.000 Because the fact is that this crappy bill would have maintained all the central provisions of Obamacare.
00:18:24.000 The only good thing it did was restructure Medicaid.
00:18:28.000 Making it into a block grant instead of a need-based program.
00:18:31.000 Even that would have changed over time because a new Congress would come in from the Democratic side and presumably reinstate it.
00:18:36.000 It wouldn't make it a permanent change.
00:18:38.000 This idea that it was the Freedom Caucus that really sunk this, Club for Growth and Heritage, all those people supported him.
00:18:45.000 I didn't vote for Trump.
00:18:46.000 I didn't vote for Hillary either.
00:18:47.000 I didn't vote for either of them because when it came to Trump, I was concerned that Trump would basically just be, he would govern like a Democrat and undercut a lot of conservative values.
00:18:58.000 That's not true of the Freedom Caucus, or Heritage, or Club for Growth.
00:19:01.000 All of them openly supported President Trump, and here is Trump slapping them in the face as hard as he possibly can.
00:19:06.000 And let's just point out, when it comes to Planned Parenthood, when it comes to single-payer healthcare, there's only one person in this entire equation who has come out in favor of those things.
00:19:14.000 Let's flash back just a few short months ago.
00:19:18.000 When you get rid of the lines, it brings in competition.
00:19:21.000 So instead of having one insurance company taking care of New York or Texas, you'll have many.
00:19:26.000 They'll compete, and it'll be a beautiful thing.
00:19:29.000 As far as Planned Parenthood is concerned, I'm pro-life.
00:19:32.000 I'm totally against abortion having to do with Planned Parenthood.
00:19:35.000 But millions and millions of women
00:19:37.000 Thank you very much.
00:19:54.000 In a different age, which is the age you're talking about here, what I'd like to see is a private system without the artificial lines around every state.
00:20:02.000 Get rid of the artificial lines, and you will have yourself great plans.
00:20:06.000 And then we have to- We can stop it there, okay.
00:20:08.000 The artificial lines, guess what wasn't in that bill?
00:20:10.000 Oh yeah, the artificial lines.
00:20:12.000 None of that was in the bill.
00:20:13.000 And this is the only guy on the stage who was talking about single-parent, how wonderful it was in other countries.
00:20:17.000 So before you start ripping on the Freedom Caucus for saving Obamacare and Planned Parenthood,
00:20:22.000 Couple notes.
00:20:22.000 Number one, even this bill delayed funding for Planned Parenthood by one year.
00:20:27.000 One year.
00:20:28.000 That's it.
00:20:29.000 It didn't abolish funding for Planned Parenthood.
00:20:31.000 Second of all, again, Trump talking as though he cares about this stuff is really galling.
00:20:35.000 The people who truly cared about this stuff weren't willing to enshrine all of this bad policy.
00:20:39.000 Okay.
00:20:39.000 So I'm going to get to the Freedom Caucus response and what is obviously a war on conservatives that has now begun.
00:20:44.000 We may have seen the high watermark of Trump as a conservative, which I certainly hope that's not the case.
00:20:48.000 I hope that he turns back to the conservatives.
00:20:50.000 But we'll talk about all of that
00:20:52.000 Over at dailywire.com.
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