It's Thursday and panic has completely set in among members of the Republican establishment, and we'll talk about that. We'll also talk about a terrible ad out of Hollywood about gun control, plus things I hate, including maybe the thing I hate most about anything I hate more than anything else ever in human history. We're talking about Donald Trump's new plan to ban all Muslims from entering the U.S. and why it's actually a smart political move, and why I don't think Jeb Bush should be in the race at all. And we'll get to all that on this episode of The Ben Shapiro Show, hosted by Ben Shapiro, on today's hot topic: Is Donald Trump running for President in 2020 as a third party candidate again? Subscribe to the show to get immediate access to all the latest breaking news involving politics, entertainment, and pop culture. Subscribe today using our podcast s RSS feed! Subscribe on iTunes Learn more about your ad choices. Use the promo code: PODCASTLEAGUES to receive 20% off your first month with discount code POWER10 at checkout at checkout. Use discount code: CRIMINALS at checkout to receive $10 OFF your purchase of $99 or more than $99.00. You'll get 20% OFF your entire annual membership when you become a patron when you sign up for VIP access to the site, and I'll get 10% off the entire site, plus I'll send you an ad-free version of the show for two months, plus a free copy of my new book, CRIMAGE! I'm giving you'll get a copy of the entire service, plus an ad on my new ad on the next month, and a FREE PROMO deal, too! I'll be giving you two weeks of my review and a free shipping address, plus two VIP membership, and two other places to watch the ad is available for two weeks for a maximum of $49/month, and they'll get an ad that gets you get a chance to review the entire deal starts shipping for you get $5 VIP access gets $19/place get $4/place that starts shipping a maximum, plus they get a discount, they'll also get a VIP discount, and an ad discount, too get my first place gets $5/place gets an ad begins shipping an ad gets a special offer, and you get two-way pricing offer starts shipping that starts at $50/place they can choose a VIP gets $24/place I'm going to get a simulous deal, they also get my best deal, I'll also receive an ad?
00:00:06.000We will also talk about a terrible ad out of Hollywood about gun control, plus things I hate with maybe the thing I hate more than anything else ever in human history.
00:00:28.000Okay, so today Donald Trump came out and said that he might run third party again.
00:00:32.000Now, as you remember, Donald Trump signed a pledge that he would not run third party, but he said at the time that maybe he would run third party if he felt mistreated.
00:00:41.000The panic has completely set in among the establishment because there's a new poll that's out today and it shows that Donald Trump, after
00:00:47.000His proposal to ban all Muslim immigration, which we talked about extensively yesterday and the day before.
00:00:51.000It's a proposal I disagree with, but it's actually very smart politically because it puts all of his opponents on the side of having to argue for Muslim immigration immediately after an Islamic terror attack.
00:01:01.000It's actually a very smart political move by Trump.
00:01:03.000He has a lot of smart, instinctual, gut moves.
00:01:40.000Okay, so Trump is saying that he might run third party.
00:01:43.000I want to talk about the possibility that Donald Trump will run third party, and what that actually means.
00:01:47.000So, the reason this comes up is because Bill O'Reilly had Donald Trump on last night, and he was asking Donald Trump about the possibility of running third party, given the establishment hatred for him, given the backlash that he's received on his proposal with regard to
00:02:54.000And nationwide, I'm leading in every one of them.
00:02:56.000So, obviously, I'm very happy where I am.
00:02:58.000The people, the Republican Party has been, the people have been phenomenal.
00:03:03.000The party, I'll let you know about that.
00:03:05.000I don't get treated fairly, I would certainly consider that.
00:03:08.000In fact, they did a poll in one of the, I think it was USA Today, where they said 68% of the people that were Republicans would follow Trump if he went independent.
00:03:18.000Number one, when you're leading by 20 and 21 points, you don't do that.
00:03:21.000A lot of the people that are very critical, people like Jeb Bush who's down being, you know, got nothing going, and a lot of the others that are critical,
00:03:58.000And the reason they don't know what to do with Trump is because what Trump represents is a couple of things.
00:04:02.000One is he's a direct response to political correctness.
00:04:04.000That's what Trump's candidacy is all about.
00:04:06.000That's why the more outrageous the thing that he says is, the more support that he gets, because his entire spiel is, if I say something and the media don't like it, it's not because the media are right, it's because the media are politically incorrect.
00:04:17.000So the problem with this is that it's not always true.
00:04:31.000As we said yesterday, the reason Trump is winning is because the media have gone so far in attacking Trump and his supporters that people react to... All of politics is the game of opposition.
00:04:41.000People need to understand this is how politics works.
00:04:43.000Politics is not about voting for Trump.
00:04:45.000You're voting against Trump's opponents.
00:04:47.000That's why you're voting for Donald Trump.
00:04:49.000The reason Trump's supporters back him is because they hate all of the people who hate Donald Trump.
00:04:54.000Okay, they hate all of the Democrats who hate Donald Trump.
00:04:56.000They hate the media that despises Donald Trump and wants to call him a racist.
00:05:00.000They despise the Republican establishment.
00:05:02.000Which has done nothing for 20 years to stop the steady encroachment of leftism.
00:05:21.000That's basically what it comes down to.
00:05:22.000So yes, Donald Trump is a celebrity and that of course helps him a lot, but people are maybe predisposed to like Donald Trump, find him funny, find him entertaining.
00:05:30.000And then when he's attacked, people say, okay, well the people who hate Trump are also the people that I happen to dislike.
00:05:37.000And so when they attack Trump and say that he's Islamophobic or that he's racist or that he's a bigot, and by extension they say that I'm Islamophobic or racist or bigoted for backing Donald Trump,
00:05:46.000Screw all these people, I like Trump even more.
00:05:48.000No matter what Trump says, I like him even more because the people who hate Trump, those are the people that I despise.
00:05:54.000I despise the GOP establishment, for example, more than I despise Trump.
00:05:58.000I despise Democrats more than I despise Trump.
00:06:00.000I hate the media more than I hate Trump.
00:06:02.000And you're seeing this actually become a sort of line in talk radio and I've said it and I think a lot of other people who are sort of in the grassroots
00:06:12.000side of the Republican Party definitely have this feel, which is that I think Trump's not conservative.
00:06:16.000I'm not going to vote for him in a primary.
00:06:20.000The reason that I know that Trump's opponents are people that I shouldn't listen to is because the same people who hate Trump hate Ted Cruz.
00:06:27.000The same people who are saying that Donald Trump is not a real conservative, with a few exceptions.
00:06:31.000There are people like Kevin Williamson at National Review who likes Ted Cruz, for example, but doesn't like Donald Trump.
00:06:36.000There are some conservatives—I'm one of these people.
00:06:54.000Okay, well, Ted Cruz is the most conservative guy in the field, and yet you're telling us that we can't possibly nominate Ted Cruz.
00:07:01.000We have to nominate somebody like Marco Rubio.
00:07:03.000And listen, I don't hate Marco Rubio as a candidate.
00:07:06.000Marco Rubio is probably my third or fourth choice, but
00:07:09.000You know, when Marco Rubio is posed as the anti-Ted Cruz or the anti-Donald Trump, people start to go, why is it that all the Jeb people are now moving over to Rubio?
00:07:35.000Because all the people that he's whining about are people who basically deserve to be smacked.
00:07:40.000Most of the people that Trump dislikes are people that most Republicans dislike.
00:07:44.000Now, in that clip where Trump was talking about third-party appeal, it's not true 68% of Republicans would go with Trump.
00:07:50.00068% of Trump's current supporters would go with Trump.
00:07:53.000And if you took that number, then what you're really looking at is
00:07:56.000You know, 70% of 35%, so you're really looking at about 24% of the Republican Party, 23% of the Republican Party, which when you translate it out is about 10% of the entire electorate.
00:08:08.00010 to 12% of the entire electorate goes with Trump if he goes third party, which is plenty enough to swing the election to Hillary Clinton for sure, right?
00:08:16.000I mean, 5% would be enough to swing the election, maybe 2% would be enough to swing the election to Hillary Clinton.
00:08:25.000And before I get to is this going to happen, I want to give you an example of why people like Trump.
00:08:29.000And again, it's not because of desperate love for Donald Trump.
00:08:33.000There's a sort of cult of personality that's being built around him, but it's really built on the basis of
00:08:37.000The cult of I hate the establishment Republicans and all they stand for.
00:08:40.000I hate the media and I hate Democrats and so I like Trump because Trump says stuff, right?
00:08:45.000And the reason for this is because, for example, look at Barack Obama attacking Trump.
00:08:49.000This is where I think that the Democrats may be being somewhat smart.
00:08:52.000If they want Trump to be the nominee, all they have to do is keep doing what they're doing, attacking Trump with everything they've got.
00:08:57.000President Obama marked the 150th anniversary of slavery with a speech the other day and I can't think of a president
00:09:04.000Really, in recent history, who's done less for black people than Barack Obama.
00:09:08.000But here's Barack Obama talking about the end of slavery, and he uses it as a way to slap Trump as somebody who just doesn't understand racial sensitivity, etc, etc.
00:09:18.000We condemn ourselves to shackles once more if we fail to answer those who wonder if they're truly equals in their communities or in their justice systems.
00:11:00.000When I watch him, he is so cynical and he is such a manipulator.
00:11:04.000And when I watch him and I hear him, he doesn't even take radical Islam seriously, telling me that you're racist to take radical Islam seriously or bigoted or Islamophobic.
00:11:13.000I think, okay, well, at least Trump takes it seriously.
00:11:17.000Politics, it's a game of opposition, it's a game of at least.
00:11:29.000Martin O'Malley's on with Jorge Ramos.
00:11:30.000And Jorge Ramos is really quite ridiculous.
00:11:34.000He's not a reporter, he's an opinion guy.
00:11:37.000And Jorge Ramos has come out in favor this week of a total gun confiscation in the United States.
00:11:41.000Martin O'Malley, the Democratic presidential candidate who has less support
00:11:45.000It's very important that all of us push back on Donald Trump's remarks.
00:11:48.000I mean, the greatest... Look, democracies are very, very susceptible.
00:12:03.000To these sort of scapegoating appeals, these racist appeals, especially after an attack or in times of economic downturn or stagnant wages.
00:12:38.000He just called everybody who has legitimate fears about radical Islam a racist.
00:12:41.000That's what that was, and that's how people read it.
00:12:43.000When you hear that, what you hear is that if you are somebody who takes radical Islam seriously as a global problem, then that's because you're an Islamophobe.
00:13:52.000And here he is telling us that he takes the threat of Islamic terror more seriously than the guy who says that he doesn't want to let Muslim immigrants into the country.
00:13:59.000Now, again, I think that it is a problem for our intelligence apparatus for us to ban Muslim immigrants from the country.
00:14:06.000I think it damages our intelligence apparatus here and abroad.
00:14:09.000But it doesn't sound good coming from Lindsey Graham.
00:14:35.000Ayaan Hirsi Ali doesn't like Trump's proposal, so obviously she is not a member of the establishment clique that just doesn't like Trump's proposal because they're establishment guys.
00:14:44.000I mean, here's Ayaan Hirsi Ali explaining why she doesn't think Trump's proposal is right.
00:14:50.000I don't think we should do what Trump is saying we do, even if we could do it.
00:14:53.000I don't think we can, but even if we could do it, I think it's a bad approach.
00:14:57.000And it creates this false promise where a large number of American voters think that if they elect Trump, that he has the solution to this long-term ideological war.
00:15:45.000So here is my forecast for whether Trump runs third party or not.
00:15:50.000I think there are really only three scenarios here.
00:15:52.000Scenario 1 is he wins the nomination outright.
00:15:54.000Scenario 2 is he loses the nomination outright.
00:15:57.000Scenario 3 is we get a brokered convention.
00:15:59.000So Sean Trend over at RealClearPolitics has a piece today in which he evaluates the chances of each of these things happening.
00:16:04.000He says that the chances that Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio will win are about 15% for each.
00:16:09.000The chances that Donald Trump wins the nomination are now 20% which is
00:16:13.000Still top of the field which is kind of surprising because for a long time the conventional wisdom was Rubio's gonna win the nomination Eventually the establishment will get their act together and they'll side behind Rubio at this point by the way I'm not even sure if they got behind Rubio that that would work.
00:16:57.000So, but, putting all of that aside, so what Trend says is he says the most likely scenario, the most likely scenario, in his view, is that we end up with a brokered convention.
00:17:08.000For people who don't know what a brokered convention is, we haven't had one in 40 years in the Republican Party.
00:17:14.000So, the reason for that is because, typically, there's been sort of a baseline agreement that as the primary process played its way out,
00:17:23.000We would sort of consolidate the field, one person would tend to emerge, and then we'd end up with a nominee.
00:17:28.000This year we front-loaded all the primaries, and not only did we front-load all the primaries, all of the attempts by the elite establishment Republicans to put their money behind candidates that we were supposed to choose between went totally by the wayside.
00:17:41.000It used to be $100 million in the bank meant something.
00:17:43.000Now, as I said earlier, $100 million in the bank means that you're at 3% in the national polls if your name is Jeb Bush.
00:17:49.000So all of the informal attempts to shape the race have failed.
00:17:53.000There's a complete disconnect between the elites and the grassroots.
00:17:56.000Well, if we get to a brokered convention, meaning that we end up in a situation where nobody has enough delegates to win the nomination outright,
00:18:04.000If Trump loses the nomination outright, I don't think he runs third party.
00:18:07.000If Ted Cruz wins the nomination, or Marco Rubio wins the nomination, I think that Trump basically lends his support and he says, you know, I've had a very important impact on the debate, and we move on.
00:18:16.000I think if Trump wins the nomination, obviously, yeah, he wins the nomination, so he's not running third party.
00:18:21.000If we get to a brokered convention, there is no way in hell the establishment will allow Donald Trump to be the nominee.
00:18:28.000If it gets to a brokered convention, which means that, again, the delegates are split between five, six, seven people, even three people, what you end up with is these sort of backroom deals that happen.
00:18:37.000Okay, well, I'll give you my delegates if you make me vice president.
00:18:40.000I'll give you my delegates if you give me this legislative priority that I want.
00:18:44.000I'll do it if you relieve me of my campaign debt.
00:18:46.000That's what Hillary Clinton did in 2008 against Barack Obama.
00:18:49.000She said, I'll back you, but I want you to help me pay off my campaign debt.
00:19:07.000The wheeling and the dealing and the backscratching and the idea that there's a Republican Party establishment that is making deals behind our backs to quash our actual desires in elections.
00:19:16.000If that happens, not only will Trump run third party, but depending on who the nominee is, there are people like me who won't vote for the Republican Party.
00:19:23.000Let's say it gets to a brokered convention, and let's say that the Republican establishment says, you know what?
00:19:28.000We tried this Rubio thing, he couldn't even beat Trump.
00:19:37.000If they did that, I would not vote for the Republican Party.
00:19:39.000I would rather see the Republican Party go down in flames than vote for one of these people that is being presented to us as the only possible alternative to Hillary Clinton.
00:19:49.000A lot of people will move over to Trump.
00:20:55.000If Donald Trump thinks he'll get 30% or 40%... I mean, Donald Trump's the guy who goes on national TV and says he's gonna win 100% of the black vote.
00:21:02.000Why in the world would you think he's going to do a good rational calculation of his own chances as a third-party candidate?
00:22:17.000And what they don't understand is that anger reinforces, again, it brings you back to Donald Trump because all of these people, you call them idiots, they're just going to double down on Donald Trump.
00:22:26.000They feel like you attacking them makes you a jerk.
00:22:28.000I like Trump even more now because you attacked me.
00:23:34.000If Donald Trump actually wins the nomination, a lot of these people are going to back Donald Trump.
00:23:39.000Because there are too many people who have too much money and too much time sunk into the Republican Party for them to just throw over the party structure.
00:23:45.000The only people willing to throw over the party structure are the people who have nothing invested.
00:23:51.000Which is why if Trump doesn't win the nomination, and it's not taken away from him through the electoral process, if it's taken away from him in some backroom deal, disaster.
00:24:13.000By surrendering, by caving to politically correct nonsense for years, they bred a reactionary candidate who's taking advantage of the resentment, and that's what Donald Trump is, and that's why he's so successful.
00:24:24.000Okay, so now I want to talk about a couple of things that I hate.
00:24:52.000It's about this Italian town that's occupied by the Nazis, and all they do is produce wine.
00:24:56.000And the Nazis really want this famous wine in the town, and so the entire town decides to basically create a conspiracy to hide hundreds of thousands of bottles of wine.
00:25:29.000So I was asked to talk about this particular ad and I was really upset with myself because there was something I really wanted to say and I forgot to say it.
00:25:38.000What you're about to see is an ad cut by a bunch of celebrities and then another celebrity named President Obama and they all sit there talking about gun control, how gun control is necessary in the aftermath of San Bernardino and Amy Schumer appears.
00:25:50.000She's become the gun control poster child for some odd reason because she's Chuck Schumer's
00:26:46.000When we come together, Americans can do anything.
00:27:05.000So it's basically just a bunch of people, and I'm firmly convinced the reason the ad was cut this way is because all of these people are only capable of saying one word at a time.
00:27:18.000They are not capable of stringing together a cohesive thought, and so it just turns into, okay, I can only say one word, so tell me what word to say, and so some lady is looking into the camera, and they have eight takes of her saying can.
00:27:49.000What I want to know, number one, is why I should give two hoots in hell what all of these celebrities think about anything.
00:27:55.000I mean, honest to God, my IQ is definitely higher than all the people in this video combined.
00:28:00.000Like, if you took them all, and I'm not talking the average, I'm talking the combined IQ, my IQ is definitely higher than all of the people in this video, and that's both because I have an extraordinarily high IQ, gang, but also because the people in this video have an extraordinarily low combined IQ.
00:28:14.000The brainpower in this video could toast a piece of bread very lightly.
00:28:25.000There's a scene, we have any fans of The Office here?
00:28:29.000Yeah, so you got a bunch of fans of The Office.
00:28:31.000You remember that scene where Michael Scott learns that you can declare bankruptcy if you're in debt?
00:28:35.000And so he walks out into the middle of the office, and he doesn't understand what it is to declare bankruptcy, how it's like an actual legal process, and so he just stands in the middle of the office and he goes, I DECLARE BANKRUPTCY!
00:28:54.000Do you think it's gonna end gun violence when you go to the 100 million gun owners in America with their 300 million guns and you put a gun in their face and say turn over your guns?
00:29:01.000You think it might increase the violence rate just a little bit?
00:29:05.000Try telling people in Texas they're gonna have to give up their stash.
00:29:08.000This kind of crap goes over well in Los Angeles.
00:29:54.000And also, let's end the culture of violence that predominates particularly in inner cities.
00:29:59.000Because it turns out in Vermont, you've got a bunch of upper crust people who all own guns.
00:30:03.000There are no gun laws in Vermont, which is why Bernie Sanders is not anti-gun.
00:30:07.000And the gun violence rate in Vermont is basically zero.
00:30:10.000It has the lowest gun violence rate of any state in America, and it has a ton of guns in Vermont.
00:30:15.000So I actually, I do care about gun violence, I just think that the solution is different than these folks, but the implication is I don't care enough.
00:30:21.000And if I cared enough, we would all get together and stand in the middle of the Washington Mall and shout, I DECLARE AN END TO GUN VIOLENCE!
00:30:28.000And all gun violence across the world would end.
00:30:30.000Now, in the mode of this, that was something that I hate a lot.
00:30:33.000Here is the thing you're about to find out, the thing that I hate most in the universe.
00:30:36.000This is legitimately the thing that I hate more than anything else that has ever been created, at least in the artistic world, and that is John Lennon's Imagine.
00:30:44.000John Lennon's Imagine is a monstrosity.
00:31:01.000And so everybody decided that we're going to replay Imagine.
00:31:04.000This is the single worst song in human history.
00:31:08.000I mean, this sucker makes Justin Bieber look like Beethoven.
00:31:11.000This is, it's pretentious, it's garbage-y, the morality that it spouts is just spew, it's moral spew, it's worse than that.
00:31:19.000It's actually, it's not just nonsensical, there's a sense to it.
00:31:22.000There is a sense, but it's so deeply immoral and deeply evil, and yet it's put over this kind of pretentious, these long pretentious piano chords, and him singing meaningfully, and
00:31:33.000Anybody who believes the crap in this song, anybody who believes the crap in this song, you should never have any sort of conversation with them.
00:31:39.000It's a waste of your time, it's a waste of your brainpower.
00:31:44.000But, if I were a censor, I would take every copy of this song, and I would take it to a bonfire, and I would burn it, because it's a sh- it's a terrible song.
00:31:53.000There's certain words even I won't say here.
00:31:55.000It is a garbage- so we'll play a little bit of it, and then I'm gonna take the- the screen that we're showing it on, I'm gonna hurl it through a window.
00:32:01.000So let's just- we'll play a little bit of this garbage.
00:33:25.000This is the most selfish morality possible.
00:33:27.000If all the people lived just for today, they would screw everything in sight and kill all their enemies.
00:33:32.000That's what would happen if everybody lived for today, because what happens tomorrow doesn't matter.
00:33:35.000If there's no punishment, if there's no reward and punishment in this life or any other, then all that matters is what is good for me, right now.
00:33:41.000Okay, it's a deeply immoral philosophy that's being preached over this pretentious garbage piano music.
00:33:47.000I mean, one of the things I hate about the Beatles, honestly, is I actually like trained musicians, and the Beatles can write a melody, there's no question.
00:35:24.000Turns out that in your happy-dappy little land here, where everybody is just wonderful and joyous, this assumes a goodness to human nature that just does not exist.
00:35:32.000The left assumes that all people inherently are good.
00:35:35.000All people are not inherently good, and anybody who's ever met a child knows this.
00:35:39.000Seriously, children are innocent, but they're not good.
00:36:16.000And nothing was developed because there was no civilization and there was no religion.
00:36:20.000It's sort of noble savage nonsense that John Lennon was preaching from the most highly civilized portion of human civilization up to that point in history.
00:36:30.000It is amazing that all these people live off the fruits of a civilization
00:36:34.000That is absolutely contrary to their values, and then they suggest that if they just rip away the civilization, then nothing will change.
00:36:40.000I mean, honestly, I should just dismiss this because the guy married Yoko Ono.
00:36:43.000I mean, that alone I should dismiss him, but we'll go one more stanza of this before I hurl myself through a window.
00:36:50.000Let's finish up with John Lennon, imagine on the... What was this?
00:38:31.000Because when the Wampanoag, this tribe, met the Pilgrims, and the Pilgrims had claimed their land, the Indians came across the land and the Pilgrims said to them, this is our land.
00:38:41.000And the Wampanoag said, wait a second, we don't do that sort of like land ownership thing.
00:38:45.000Meyerson says, well, weren't they right?
00:38:47.000We still don't have a good reason why we shouldn't just share the land.
00:38:50.000I have a good reason why we shouldn't share the land.
00:38:52.000It's called several thousand years of no human development, and then Western civilization.
00:38:57.000That's why we should not share the land.
00:38:58.000Private property, private property ownership, the idea of labor, the idea of owning what you produce, is one of the greatest goods ever discovered in the history of civilization.
00:39:06.000We would all be hunter-gatherer nomad peoples with no history,
00:39:11.000And we'd all die at 30 if it weren't for human civilization and private property ownership and the incentive that suggests that you own what you produce.
00:39:19.000But none of this makes any difference to these people.
00:39:21.000It's deeply immoral, but it's such childish philosophy.
00:39:24.000And it bleeds all the way down to the kiddies.
00:39:26.000I mean, this really is something that you would hear from a third grader, but leftists think it's so deep.
00:39:30.000They think stuff that seven-year-olds say is just the depth of what humankind is.
00:39:36.000You should not take your moral advice from small children.
00:39:39.000You shouldn't, but that's what this is.
00:39:40.000Okay, when my daughter is five, I expect that I'll probably hear this from her and I'll have to inform her life isn't fair and people do bad things.
00:40:09.000So, that's the thing that I hate for today.
00:40:11.000The good news is that I think that reality intervenes.
00:40:14.000Every time this is tried, reality intervenes.
00:40:16.000That's the good news and the bad news.
00:40:17.000Because the bad news is that when reality intervenes, usually tens of millions of people die for stupid garbage like this.
00:40:25.000And will, if we allow the left to win.
00:40:27.000So, what I'm calling for in the Republican primary is let's consolidate around somebody who is not Donald Trump to stop Donald Trump, but let's do it before we get to some sort of brokered convention with all the elites figuring out for the rest of us.
00:40:38.000I don't like elites figuring out anything for the rest of us, whether it's John Lennon or Karl Rove.