The Ben Shapiro Show - Ep. 65 - The Greatest Iowa Caucuses Ever

00:00:00.000 It's a Tuesday, and here we are the day after the Iowa caucuses.

00:00:03.000 And as you can see, I'm a much happier Ben Shapiro today.

00:00:07.000 We'll talk all about it.

00:00:08.000 I'm Ben Shapiro.

00:00:09.000 This is The Ben Shapiro Show.

00:00:17.000 So here we are.

00:00:18.000 We have ourselves a race.

00:00:19.000 Donald Trump goes down to flaming defeat in Iowa.

00:00:22.000 And it was a flaming defeat in Iowa.

00:00:24.000 Donald Trump had, he dealt with it relatively well yesterday, but then he sort of had a meltdown this morning.

00:00:30.000 We'll talk about it first.

00:00:31.000 For those who were in a cave, here were the actual results, and here's how they differed from the polls beforehand.

00:00:37.000 Before what happened in Iowa, the polls were Trump 28.6, this is the RealClearPolitics average, Trump 28.6, Cruz 23.9, Rubio 16.9.

00:00:47.000 The final results.

00:00:48.000 Trump 24.3, so he was down 4.3% from his estimate.

00:00:53.000 Cruz 27.7, which means that he was up 3.8% from his estimate.

00:00:58.000 And the biggest jump of the night belonged to Marco Rubio, who jumped 6.2%, all the way up to 23.1%, barely coming in third behind Donald Trump, who's actually very close.

00:01:08.000 So, what this means, of course, is that Cruz has some momentum coming out of Iowa.

00:01:12.000 It means that Rubio has some serious momentum coming out of Iowa.

00:01:15.000 And it means that Trump

00:01:17.000 The God bleeds.

00:01:17.000 I mean, he's not invulnerable.

00:01:20.000 And we're about to see whether Donald Trump has a glass jaw in New Hampshire.

00:01:23.000 Now, remember, Donald Trump currently has, according to that same RealClearPolitics average, a 22-point lead in New Hampshire.

00:01:30.000 But that also relies on the fact that there are four or five candidates tied up all around 11-12%.

00:01:35.000 That would be Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich.

00:01:42.000 A lot of people who are hanging around right there.

00:01:44.000 And because there's so many people who are hanging around in that position, they've sort of been dragging each other down.

00:01:49.000 Well, now that Rubio and Cruz are emerging as frontrunners, or at least people capable of emerging,

00:01:55.000 You could see a fade in support for Donald Trump and a rise for either one of those two.

00:02:00.000 In all likelihood, the conventional wisdom says that Rubio will be the one who benefits most in New Hampshire.

00:02:05.000 Iowa is more of a Cruz crowd.

00:02:06.000 It's very evangelical in nature.

00:02:08.000 New Hampshire is a much more secular crowd, much more Northeastern crowd, probably more friendly to Marco Rubio's style of politics, sort of the conventional

00:02:16.000 Wisdom.

00:02:17.000 So we'll talk in a minute about sort of how this race is going to play out, what the forecast looks like, and we'll also talk about what's happening on the Democratic side of the aisle, where Hillary and Bernie were locked in a death struggle.

00:02:28.000 They were beating each other with their walkers late last night, and gripping each other by the throat with their feeble grips.

00:02:35.000 Basically, their entire primary came down to, I think it was less than 100 votes. 0.92

00:02:39.000 I mean, it was something ridiculous.

00:02:42.000 And that was, I think it came out of five precincts or something? 0.96

00:02:46.000 Something insane.

00:02:47.000 And it ended up being delivered to Hillary Clinton via coin toss. 1.00

00:02:51.000 Basically, she won by, I think, five precincts, and six precincts were decided by coin toss. 0.94

00:02:56.000 All six went for Hillary Clinton. 0.83

00:02:58.000 Not say something corrupt happened.

00:03:01.000 Maybe it's just a coincidence, but six coins all coming up in favor of Hillary Clinton, there is about a 1.5% chance of that happening.

00:03:08.000 If I were to flip a coin six times, the chance it comes up head six times in a row, 1.5%.

00:03:13.000 Somehow it came up head for Hillary. 1.00

00:03:15.000 It's always coming up roses for Hillary, so we will get to what that means for Hillary, and I think that she is about five seconds away from sticking her head into an oven.

00:03:23.000 I mean, I think she really is having it rough, and if Bernie Sanders made one move, he would take the nomination away from her.

00:03:31.000 Hillary Clinton is a cartoon character trying to grip a wet bar of soap. 1.00

00:03:34.000 The harder she squeezes the soap, the less likely she is to actually attain the object of her desire.

00:03:40.000 Okay, so we'll start with Ted Cruz.

00:03:42.000 After his big win, and it was because he had great turnout on the ground, he won with every group except for the people who are highly educated, and the people who are barely educated, barely educated people went Trump, highly educated people went Rubio, everybody else, women, men, evangelicals, not evangelicals, went for Cruz in Iowa, so he had some broad appeal.

00:04:01.000 So, Ted Cruz, after he wins, he goes out to give his victory speech.

00:04:05.000 And, you know, I want to give him his due for winning.

00:04:07.000 It's a major thing and it's going to have major implications for how these primaries play out.

00:04:12.000 And I say that Cruz is the temporary frontrunner, assuming that

00:04:15.000 We're good to go.

00:04:37.000 He took down Trump.

00:04:38.000 He punched Trump, and Trump went down.

00:04:40.000 That's a big deal, and people are sort of making light of it this morning, like, oh, we all should have seen the collapse coming.

00:04:46.000 Nobody saw the collapse coming, okay?

00:04:47.000 Trump still has a 20-point lead in New Hampshire.

00:04:49.000 He still has a 16-point lead in South Carolina.

00:04:51.000 He has a lead everywhere.

00:04:52.000 So the idea that this was not a great accomplishment by Cruz is insane, especially in light of the fact that Trump had been viciously beating Cruz in the press for several weeks leading up to this caucus, calling Cruz a liar,

00:05:05.000 We're good to go.

00:05:25.000 You have to take it as a package.

00:05:26.000 What makes Ted Cruz great is that Ted Cruz does not compromise on his beliefs or on his principles.

00:05:33.000 Ted Cruz believes what he believes, and he is that person.

00:05:36.000 He may manipulate in service of those principles, that's the accusation about the government shutdown, for example, but there's no question that he is an ideologue.

00:05:44.000 It also means that he doesn't, unfortunately, have real grasp of optics.

00:05:48.000 So, after you win Iowa, after you win Iowa, this is your big moment, right?

00:05:52.000 This is your moment on the national stage, your moment to prove to everyone in the United States that not only do you belong as the Iowa winner, but that you are a viable presidential candidate for the long haul, that you can unify Americans.

00:06:04.000 The best person I've ever seen do this, actually, was the person who I probably dislike most in American politics, Barack Obama.

00:06:10.000 President Obama, back when he was Senator Obama in 2008, after he won, I remember watching this on TV, he went up and he had the human backdrop behind him, right?

00:06:18.000 He had all sorts of people who were standing behind him.

00:06:20.000 And he proceeded to do a speech from a teleprompter.

00:06:23.000 And people mocked him at the time.

00:06:24.000 Oh, look at him doing a speech from a teleprompter.

00:06:26.000 He just won!

00:06:26.000 How would he even know to do it from a teleprompter?

00:06:30.000 And the answer was he did it because he's smart.

00:06:32.000 He did it because he knew that everybody was watching on television.

00:06:35.000 Cruz spoke yesterday, and what he said was fine.

00:06:38.000 In many cases, it was wonderful.

00:06:39.000 He spoke for 40 minutes yesterday after winning.

00:06:43.000 You can't do that.

00:06:44.000 It's a soundbite culture.

00:06:45.000 He should have gone for 10 minutes.

00:06:46.000 He should have said something inspirational.

00:06:48.000 He should have said, our fight has only begun.

00:06:49.000 Now we're moving on.

00:06:50.000 Instead, he proceeded to serve and thank the people who are in the room and the people who'd given him the victory, which is justifiable on a personal level, but on a national political level, it's problematic.

00:07:01.000 Here is Cruz in his victory speech.

00:07:07.000 Let me first of all say, to God be the glory.

00:07:20.000 Tonight is a victory for the grassroots.

00:07:30.000 Tonight

00:07:31.000 is a victory for courageous conservatives across Iowa and all across this great nation.

00:07:45.000 Tonight, the state of Iowa has spoken.

00:07:53.000 Iowa has sent notice that the Republican nominee and the next president of the United States

00:08:01.000 Will not be chosen by the media.

00:08:14.000 Will not be chosen by the Washington establishment.

00:08:24.000 Will not be chosen by the lobbyists.

00:08:31.000 But we'll be chosen by the most incredible, powerful force, where all sovereignty resides in our nation, by we the people, the American people.

00:08:47.000 Okay, so that's actually fine stuff.

00:08:49.000 I mean, what Cruz is saying there is good.

00:08:51.000 When he says he's rejecting the media, he's rejecting the establishment.

00:08:54.000 All of that is great.

00:08:55.000 He then proceeded to go for another 38 minutes and 30 seconds.

00:08:58.000 And that was the problem.

00:09:00.000 And again, the optics here are just not great.

00:09:02.000 I mean, he looks like he's in a crowded hall.

00:09:04.000 The shadows are on him, right?

00:09:05.000 I mean, it's actually hard to see him in parts.

00:09:07.000 People can't watch this.

00:09:09.000 Behind him is Steve King on one side.

00:09:10.000 His wife Heidi is on one side of him.

00:09:13.000 He's not surrounded by the human backdrop that Obama was.

00:09:16.000 It's not great optically.

00:09:18.000 It's fine, in terms of what he's saying.

00:09:20.000 And that's Cruz in a nutshell.

00:09:22.000 Not great on optics, great on content, right?

00:09:24.000 His content is wonderful, his optics are not so wonderful.

00:09:27.000 Okay, so not a huge deal, mainly just a bit of a lost opportunity.

00:09:31.000 Marco Rubio came in third, he had a big night.

00:09:34.000 The media have decided that Rubio's big win is a bigger win than Cruz's big win, which is insane to me.

00:09:39.000 Like, Rubio was supposed to be here.

00:09:41.000 Okay, Rubio was an establishment favorite.

00:09:44.000 Now I will say this, and I think conservatives should be overjoyed.

00:09:47.000 Overjoyed today.

00:09:49.000 They should be overjoyed today and presumably for the rest of the cycle.

00:09:53.000 If your choice as a conservative is between Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, you have to be thrilled.

00:09:59.000 You have to be thrilled.

00:10:00.000 By any objective measure, the two, at least two of the three most conservative people in this race are Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and the only other person there would be Rand Paul, right?

00:10:10.000 Rand Paul, but he's an isolationist, so I don't really consider him conservative on foreign policy.

00:10:14.000 But Cruz and Rubio are probably the top two conservatives in the field.

00:10:18.000 If Rubio had not embraced the Gang of Eight Amnesty Bill, then he and Cruz would be neck and neck.

00:10:24.000 I mean, they would be just as conservative.

00:10:25.000 They both have incredible ratings from the American Conservative Union.

00:10:29.000 They both have 0% ratings from Planned Parenthood.

00:10:31.000 They're both pro-life.

00:10:32.000 They're both hawkish on foreign policy.

00:10:35.000 They're both great on tax policy.

00:10:37.000 They're both heavily conservative on social policy.

00:10:40.000 These are, if you, after 2012, those of us who are grassroots conservatives and were very frustrated, very frustrated, that the person picked by the establishment was the only guy in America who had designed Obamacare before Obamacare, Mitt Romney, those of us who said we need a conservative, a real conservative,

00:10:59.000 People like me who have spent several weeks railing against Donald Trump for not being conservative.

00:11:03.000 I am thrilled today that Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are basically the two frontrunners.

00:11:09.000 That those are the choices.

00:11:10.000 That is a wonderful, wonderful thing.

00:11:12.000 Because the idea that Rubio is an establishment guy.

00:11:15.000 I mean, Rubio, remember, he was opposed by the establishment in 2010.

00:11:18.000 He ran against Charlie Crist, the governor of Florida.

00:11:22.000 I mean, you want to talk about somebody who has political regrets?

00:11:24.000 Jeb Bush spent, I think, $2,800 per vote in the state of Iowa.

00:11:29.000 He finished with 3% in the state of Iowa.

00:11:31.000 But if you go back far enough, you really want to talk about regrets?

00:11:34.000 In 2010, when Marco Rubio ran and won the Senate seat over Charlie Criss, you know who was originally supposed to run for that seat and take it?

00:11:41.000 Jeb Bush.

00:11:42.000 Jeb Bush decided he didn't want to do that.

00:11:43.000 He preferred to sit home.

00:11:45.000 And so Marco Rubio has now schlonged him, as Donald Trump might put it.

00:11:49.000 So in any case, Jeb Bush fails.

00:11:51.000 Donald Trump fails.

00:11:53.000 Conservatives have to be very happy today.

00:11:55.000 But the point is this.

00:11:56.000 Rubio was a Tea Party guy.

00:11:57.000 Cruz, Tea Party guy, defeated an establishment guy named David Dewhurst, who was the Lieutenant Governor of Texas.

00:12:02.000 So you have two Tea Party guys, one of whom is being identified as the establishment guy because at one point he supported the Gang of Eight bill.

00:12:09.000 Now, do I trust Marco Rubio on immigration?

00:12:12.000 No, I don't, because he flipped on me once.

00:12:15.000 So the idea that he wouldn't flip again is bizarre to me.

00:12:17.000 The one thing about Rubio that I think is interesting in terms of the Cruz-Rubio dynamic, Cruz is the strong guy who has the off-putting personality, and Rubio is the weak guy with the winning personality.

00:12:29.000 I think the question for Rubio is going to be whether he is a weak

00:12:33.000 Is he a weak person with strong convictions or a strong person with weak convictions?

00:12:38.000 There's a difference between the two.

00:12:39.000 If you're a weak person

00:12:50.000 With strong convictions.

00:12:52.000 That means that even if Rubio deeply believes in comprehensive immigration reform, and he becomes president, we can push him off the point.

00:12:58.000 Which we did with the Gang of Eight.

00:13:00.000 If he is a strong person with weak convictions, then he might just run roughshod over everybody the way that George W. Bush tried to do in 2004 after he won re-election pushing comprehensive immigration reform.

00:13:11.000 So this is not me being sanguine about Marco Rubio and immigration reform, but it is to say that if you are a conservative right now, this choice has to be great for you.

00:13:20.000 Now, I do want to contrast the persona.

00:13:21.000 So you've got Cruz, who's optically not particularly strong, but really, really on message.

00:13:28.000 And then you've got Marco Rubio.

00:13:29.000 So here's Marco Rubio trotting out after finishing third.

00:13:32.000 In Iowa.

00:13:33.000 Again, he's still... At least Rubio has the presence of mind to get his entire family with the kiddies up there behind him, right?

00:13:40.000 He's got the kiddies to one side.

00:13:41.000 He still should have done the Obama thing and put up a huge raft of people behind him.

00:13:47.000 And as you'll see when we get to the Democrats, the Democrats actually did this. 1.00

00:13:50.000 Because they understand optics and Republicans are stupid. 1.00

00:13:52.000 But Rubio is standing there. 1.00

00:13:54.000 At least he's behind a podium.

00:13:56.000 He doesn't have a handheld mic.

00:13:58.000 Cruz had a handheld mic, Rubio doesn't.

00:14:01.000 And it's a better look, you'll see.

00:14:03.000 Here's Marco Rubio's speech.

00:14:08.000 So this is the moment they said would never happen.

00:14:14.000 For months, they told us we had no chance.

00:14:17.000 For months, they told us because we offered too much optimism in a time of anger, we had no chance.

00:14:23.000 For months, they told us because we didn't have the right endorsements or the right political connections, we had no chance.

00:14:30.000 They told me that we had no chance because my hair wasn't gray enough and my boots were too high.

00:14:41.000 They told me I needed to wait my turn.

00:14:43.000 That I needed to wait in line.

00:14:52.000 But tonight, here in Iowa, the people of this great state have sent a very clear message.

00:14:59.000 After seven years of Barack Obama, we are not waiting any longer to take our country back.

00:15:11.000 This is not a time for waiting.

00:15:14.000 For everything that makes this nation great now hangs in the balance.

00:15:18.000 This is a time where we need a president that will truly preserve and protect and defend the Constitution of the United States, not one that undermines, attacks, and ignores the Constitution of the United States.

00:15:33.000 Okay, this is a better speech.

00:15:34.000 I mean, there's no two ways about it.

00:15:36.000 What Rubio is doing, Cruz is clear, but Rubio is doing the visionary thing.

00:15:41.000 Right?

00:15:41.000 So you have Cruz and he says, he's attacking directly the media and the establishment and the lobbyists.

00:15:47.000 Rubio doesn't bother defining his enemies, notice.

00:15:49.000 I mean, this is clever politics.

00:15:50.000 What Rubio does is, they said we could never do this.

00:15:52.000 Who's they?

00:15:54.000 Was there anybody who said Rubio could never win?

00:15:56.000 Or finish third in Iowa?

00:15:57.000 They said we could never finish third in Iowa?

00:15:59.000 Really?

00:16:00.000 Who's this amorphous they out there? 1.00

00:16:03.000 Who said Rubio could never finish third in Iowa?

00:16:04.000 By the way, the polls had him finishing third in Iowa, right?

00:16:07.000 I mean, he gained in the polls, but he still finished third in Iowa.

00:16:10.000 Who's this they?

00:16:10.000 You don't know, but you know that they are out to get you.

00:16:13.000 And then, he swivels his attack, not inside the Republican Party, but directly to President Obama, right?

00:16:18.000 He immediately says, I am the counterweight to President Obama.

00:16:22.000 He's elevating himself above the other Republicans, and he's already putting himself in a weight class with Obama and Hillary Clinton, which is very- look, it's smart politics.

00:16:29.000 It's smart.

00:16:30.000 So this is why Rubio is being given a lot of credit.

00:16:34.000 Now again, the hard work on the ground was Cruz.

00:16:37.000 The guy who did the major grunt work here was the guy who took down Donald Trump.

00:16:42.000 And if Rubio ends up as the nominee, he should actually be thanking Ted Cruz because the fact is that Rubio was not going to take down Donald Trump in Iowa.

00:16:50.000 If Ted Cruz is not in the race, most of those votes probably were down to Donald Trump.

00:16:55.000 Or at least a heavy percentage of those votes.

00:16:56.000 Probably splits half and half at best for Marco Rubio.

00:16:59.000 Because Cruz is seen as anti-establishment.

00:17:01.000 Rubio is seen as establishment, again, because of immigration reform.

00:17:05.000 But one thing is clear.

00:17:07.000 We now have a race on our hands.

00:17:09.000 And I'm going to get into the dynamics of that race and how this looks in just a second.

00:17:12.000 First, we have to have a word from the night's big loser, of course, Donald Trump, who's been campaigning for literally months.

00:17:18.000 I mean, he was on top of every poll.

00:17:20.000 And then for literally months, Donald Trump was saying that he wins.

00:17:23.000 That's all he does.

00:17:23.000 All I do is win.

00:17:24.000 All I do is win.

00:17:25.000 I win and I win and I win.

00:17:27.000 That's all Donald Trump does.

00:17:28.000 Well, last night he lost.

00:17:30.000 And he was making second place great again.

00:17:32.000 And here is Donald Trump.

00:17:34.000 Actually, this is the best I've ever seen Donald Trump, honestly.

00:17:36.000 Like, a little humility goes a long way.

00:17:38.000 If he could actually do this, it would be great.

00:17:41.000 But he can't, as we'll talk about in a second.

00:17:43.000 So here's Donald Trump doing his routine after losing in Iowa.

00:17:47.000 I have to start by saying I absolutely love the people of Iowa.

00:17:53.000 Unbelievable.

00:17:58.000 So, on June 16th, when we started this journey, there were 17 candidates.

00:18:05.000 I was told by everybody, do not go to Iowa.

00:18:09.000 You could never finish even in the top 10.

00:18:13.000 And I said, but I have friends in Iowa.

00:18:14.000 I know a lot of people in Iowa.

00:18:16.000 I think they'll really like me.

00:18:18.000 Let's give it a shot.

00:18:19.000 They said, don't do it.

00:18:20.000 I said, I have to do it.

00:18:24.000 We finished second, and I want to tell you something.

00:18:27.000 I'm just honored.

00:18:29.000 I'm really honored.

00:18:30.000 And I want to congratulate Ted, and I want to congratulate all of the incredible candidates, including Mike Huckabee, who's become a really good friend of mine.

00:18:40.000 So, congratulations to everybody.

00:18:43.000 Congratulations.

00:18:46.000 Okay, so there we are.

00:18:48.000 And Donald Trump, you know, that's the best he's ever looked.

00:18:51.000 A little bit of humility goes a long way.

00:18:52.000 If the man had any self-control, he would be the nominee, is the truth.

00:18:55.000 He has no self-control.

00:18:57.000 And that was proved this morning on Twitter.

00:18:59.000 So, Trump still has a massive lead in New Hampshire.

00:19:02.000 Again, he has a 21.5% lead by the latest RealClearPolling, RealClearPolitics poll averaging in New Hampshire.

00:19:08.000 Right now, just point of fact,

00:19:10.000 Here are what the poll averages say in New Hampshire.

00:19:12.000 And of course, these polls are too early because we don't know yet how Iowa impacts New Hampshire.

00:19:17.000 There will be some poll movement for sure.

00:19:19.000 Trump will go down.

00:19:20.000 You'll see a bump for Rubio.

00:19:21.000 You'll see a bump for Cruz.

00:19:22.000 Right now, at current, here's what the poll average says.

00:19:25.000 Trump, 33.7.

00:19:26.000 Cruz, 11.5.

00:19:26.000 Kasich, 11.3.

00:19:26.000 Bush, 10.5.

00:19:27.000 Rubio, 10.2.

00:19:27.000 Christie, 5.8.

00:19:35.000 Right, so actually the most recent poll from UMass Lowell has Trump up 38 to 14 over his nearest competitor.

00:19:42.000 So Trump is still the frontrunner in terms of these polls.

00:19:45.000 If you just take polls into account, Trump is still the frontrunner.

00:19:48.000 And people are rightly taking these polls with a grain of salt, because polling data only lasts so long as nobody gets hit in the nose, and Trump just got hit in the nose.

00:19:56.000 But if Trump plays it smart, right, if Trump says, you know, we did as well as we could in Iowa, we really didn't have much of a ground game, but we've put all of our resources into New Hampshire, I look forward to a massive victory there,

00:20:05.000 We're good to go.

00:20:19.000 Donald Trump, because he has no self-control.

00:20:21.000 Here's what Donald Trump did on Twitter.

00:20:23.000 He went silent on Twitter for 13 hours, to the point where there were a lot of people who were actually keeping track of how long he was off Twitter.

00:20:32.000 There was actually a clock that got posted on Politico to keep track of how long he was off of Twitter.

00:20:38.000 So here is what Donald Trump did this morning.

00:20:48.000 What Donald Trump did this morning, he said, quote, my experience in Iowa was a great one.

00:20:53.000 This is about eight o'clock this morning, Pacific time.

00:20:55.000 My experience in Iowa was a great one.

00:20:57.000 I started out with all of the experts saying I couldn't do well there and ended up in second place.

00:21:02.000 Nice.

00:21:03.000 Because I was told I could not do well in Iowa, I spent very little there.

00:21:06.000 A fraction of Cruz and Rubio came in a strong second.

00:21:09.000 Great honor.

00:21:10.000 Right?

00:21:10.000 Okay.

00:21:10.000 So he's doing my strategy.

00:21:11.000 He's saying, okay, you know, I did as well as I could.

00:21:14.000 It wasn't my best shot.

00:21:15.000 I still did really well.

00:21:17.000 Okay.

00:21:18.000 And then, Donald Trump actually takes over.

00:21:21.000 Like, the actual Donald Trump takes over.

00:21:23.000 He sends that first tweet at 8.03, the second one at 8.14, and then, you'll see, the duration between tweets starts to shrink.

00:21:30.000 And as the duration between tweets starts to shrink, so too does his sanity, because he immediately gets angry, okay?

00:21:38.000 Here are his next three tweets.

00:21:39.000 8.29, 8.34, 8.39, right?

00:21:39.000 All within ten minutes.

00:21:40.000 Quote.

00:21:43.000 The media has not covered my long shot great finish in Iowa fairly.

00:21:46.000 Brought in record voters, got second highest vote total in history.

00:21:49.000 I will be talking about my wonderful experience in Iowa and the simultaneous unfair treatment by the media later in New Hampshire.

00:21:55.000 Big crowd.

00:21:56.000 I don't believe I have been given any credit by the voters for self-funding my campaign.

00:22:00.000 The only one.

00:22:01.000 I will keep doing, but not worth it.

00:22:04.000 Right, so he goes from, we're moving on to New Hampshire to, I'm not even sure that it's worth it for me to be doing this honorable thing of self-funding my own campaign.

00:22:12.000 I'm not even sure.

00:22:13.000 Frankly, frankly, I don't know if it's worth it.

00:22:15.000 Frankly, frankly.

00:22:17.000 So, I mean, this is the problem.

00:22:19.000 So, Trump may still win New Hampshire.

00:22:24.000 He could also fall apart.

00:22:24.000 If he did, it would be historic.

00:22:25.000 I mean, if he actually fell apart, it would be a historic breakdown for Donald Trump.

00:22:31.000 So let's talk about the various paths to victory here for these various candidates.

00:22:38.000 So there are a few different paths to victory for these various candidates.

00:22:42.000 The easiest path to victory is probably the path to victory

00:22:45.000 For Marco Rubio.

00:22:47.000 This is assuming that Trump falls apart.

00:22:48.000 So there's, we really have to discuss two separate scenarios.

00:22:51.000 One is Trump falls apart, one is Trump does not fall apart.

00:22:54.000 Okay, so, to understand how this works, you first have to determine how many delegates come from where.

00:22:59.000 So in order to win the nomination, you need 1,237 delegates.

00:23:04.000 That's how many delegates it takes out of something like 2,000 delegates.

00:23:07.000 So you need to win a slight majority out of the 2,100 or so delegates.

00:23:12.000 A large percentage of those delegates are located in blue states, and blue states tend to allocate their delegates not proportionally, but in terms of winner-take-all.

00:23:20.000 So that's a benefit for Rubio.

00:23:22.000 So, for example, Florida allocates 99 delegates, and all of them go to whoever wins.

00:23:27.000 Iowa is a proportional representation state, so Cruz wins, he gets 8 delegates, Trump gets 7 delegates, Rubio gets 7 delegates.

00:23:35.000 So you see how this disadvantages Rubio.

00:23:37.000 I mean, it disadvantages Cruz.

00:23:39.000 The states that Cruz wins are going to be more like Iowa.

00:23:43.000 The states that Rubio wins are going to be more like Florida.

00:23:46.000 So here is the path.

00:23:47.000 Let's start with the path for Cruz.

00:23:49.000 There are about 1,000 delegates, 1,037 delegates.

00:23:52.000 They come from heavy red states that should favor Cruz.

00:23:54.000 These are all the southern states, some states in the Midwest.

00:23:57.000 Only 115 of those delegates are apportioned based on a winner-take-all system.

00:24:02.000 531 of those delegates come from district-by-district apportion systems, so it's kind of sort of winner-take-all, but not really.

00:24:09.000 It means that you're going to get more than you would in a basic proportional representation system if you win a lot of districts, and you win all the- let's say you win all the districts 51-49, you win 100% of the votes, right?

00:24:21.000 Sort of like congressional seats.

00:24:23.000 But if you win 51% of- if you win- if you- if you win half of the

00:24:29.000 District, and you win 70% of the vote, you still only get half of the vote.

00:24:33.000 309 of the delegates in these red states come from proportional representation.

00:24:38.000 If Cruz gets really, really lucky, if he does really, really well, he walks away with about 800 delegates.

00:24:43.000 That's if he just wipes out Marco Rubio.

00:24:46.000 So now he's at 800.

00:24:47.000 Remember, he still needs another 437 delegates.

00:24:50.000 In the purple states, there are about 162 delegates from winner-take-all systems, and 116 from proportional representation states, and about 46 come from district-by-district selections.

00:25:03.000 So, here are the purple states.

00:25:04.000 I'm gonna read them in order, okay?

00:25:05.000 Iowa, Nevada, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia.

00:25:10.000 As you can see, these are states that don't necessarily favor Ted Cruz.

00:25:13.000 Rubio will be very competitive in Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio.

00:25:18.000 And Florida, by the way.

00:25:19.000 I mean, obviously, he'll win Florida, probably.

00:25:21.000 Because he is the senator from Florida, you would assume that he would do well in Florida.

00:25:26.000 So, if Cruz does really well here, really well here, he wins a minority of these votes.

00:25:30.000 He wins maybe 100 of the delegates.

00:25:32.000 Now he's up to 900.

00:25:34.000 And that brings us to the blue states, and this is where Cruz really is at a disadvantage.

00:25:38.000 You're talking New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey, California.

00:25:43.000 This is where Marco Rubio, theoretically, should clean up.

00:25:45.000 This is assuming that Trump falls out.

00:25:47.000 And it's just a Cruz vs. Rubio race.

00:25:49.000 Cruz would have to win about 200 of those votes.

00:25:53.000 That's a rough haul.

00:25:54.000 I mean, they're about 778 delegates, but Rubio is likely to sweep these, and it's winner-take-all.

00:26:00.000 So, Rubio has a slightly easier path.

00:26:02.000 He just has to pick off a few states here and there.

00:26:04.000 Cruz has a narrower path.

00:26:05.000 He basically has to sweep the table in all of these proportional representation states.

00:26:10.000 He has to rack up big victories in a lot of these red states.

00:26:13.000 And then he has to peel off a couple of states like California and Michigan, for example, in order to win the nomination.

00:26:20.000 Rubio, it's an easier shot.

00:26:22.000 You see Rubio winning a lot of these purple states and all of the blue states, and if Rubio wins a few red states, if Rubio pulls out of Tennessee, for example, a state that is red but could theoretically go to Rubio or Cruz, then you see Rubio walking away with the nomination.

00:26:36.000 So in a Cruz versus Rubio head-to-head advantage, Rubio.

00:26:40.000 However, Donald Trump is still in the race.

00:26:43.000 If Donald Trump is still in the race, then things get kind of interesting.

00:26:46.000 Because the truth is that Trump is more competitive with Rubio than he is with Cruz in a lot of these states.

00:26:50.000 If you look at how this breaks down, look at Donald Trump in New Hampshire.

00:26:53.000 Let's say Donald Trump wins in New Hampshire.

00:26:55.000 Let's say he wins by 10, not 20.

00:26:56.000 Let's say he wins by 10 in New Hampshire.

00:26:59.000 And then we go down to South Carolina, where he has a lead.

00:27:01.000 Now it becomes a Trump versus Cruz race.

00:27:05.000 Anybody could win there.

00:27:06.000 And then we head into a bunch of primaries in the South.

00:27:09.000 Trump probably wins a lot of the states in the North.

00:27:11.000 Rubio has become sort of an afterthought in some of these places.

00:27:14.000 He and Trump are battling it out up North.

00:27:17.000 Cruz and Trump are battling it out down South.

00:27:19.000 And then we get to the blue states at the end, and now Cruz is wiped out, and it's Trump versus Rubio at the end.

00:27:26.000 The problem is that if they're each winning states, if there are three candidates, this system is not made for three candidates.

00:27:32.000 You have to win a majority of the delegates.

00:27:35.000 There's a good shot this goes to the convention, if this is the case.

00:27:39.000 There's a decent shot that if Trump actually wins New Hampshire and wins South Carolina, for example,

00:27:45.000 That this thing goes all the way down to the convention.

00:27:47.000 Because Cruz is not getting out.

00:27:48.000 Rubio is not getting out.

00:27:50.000 And Trump will get out, but only if he gets beat.

00:27:53.000 And he needs to be beat in a couple separate states.

00:27:55.000 So, we'll have to see.

00:27:57.000 The real question now is how glass is Donald Trump's jaw.

00:27:59.000 It's the question we asked yesterday.

00:28:01.000 After the guy bleeds, the question is, when the guy bleeds, is he caught?

00:28:05.000 Or is he going to bleed out into the gutter?

00:28:06.000 And we really don't know the answer to that particular question as of yet.

00:28:11.000 So, odds on favorite, if I had to put money on it, I say that Rubio wins the nomination.

00:28:16.000 Right now, because Trump is still in it, Ted Cruz is the favorite, this could go any which way, and I'm not going to pretend that I have any better insight than what the possibilities are.

00:28:26.000 You know, the field of prediction is not quite what people crack it up to be. 0.91

00:28:31.000 It's not Dick Morris getting on TV and just saying the wildest crap that comes into his head and being wrong.

00:28:35.000 My job, if I'm going to predict for you, is to give you the range of possibilities and the likelihood of each possibility. 0.74

00:28:40.000 The range of possibilities?

00:28:41.000 Rubio, Trump, Cruz, all three possibilities exist.

00:28:45.000 If I were to handicap it, I would probably say that Rubio has the easiest shots in the nomination.

00:28:50.000 I would say that Rubio has about, I would say,

00:28:53.000 Maybe a 40% shot at winning the nomination.

00:28:56.000 I'd say that Cruz has about a 35% shot at winning the nomination.

00:28:59.000 I would say that Trump has about a 25% shot at winning the nomination.

00:29:02.000 At this point, if Trump falls apart, things change radically.

00:29:07.000 And there's a case to be made that Rubio's even stronger than that.

00:29:10.000 But, for the moment, Trump has not fallen apart.

00:29:12.000 So just looking at a snapshot of now, of today, Ted Cruz is the favorite, and that's a big win for Cruz.

00:29:18.000 Because if Cruz had lost last night, he'd be toast.

00:29:21.000 If Cruz had lost in Iowa, it would be over for Ted Cruz, even though he still has the most money, because Trump would have won.

00:29:26.000 And if Trump won there, he would have won in New Hampshire, he would have won in South Carolina, and this thing could have turned into a domino set really, really quickly.

00:29:34.000 Okay, moving on to the other side of the aisle.

00:29:37.000 There's a lot of allegations of voter fraud in Iowa.

00:29:40.000 The Democrats and voter fraud go together like peanut butter and jelly.

00:29:44.000 The more dead people vote for the Democrats every year than are even running for their presidential nomination.

00:29:49.000 There are two dead people running for their nomination right now.

00:29:52.000 So, this is a video, what we're about to show you, of what people are saying is voter fraud in Iowa.

00:29:58.000 This is at one of the precincts in Iowa.

00:30:00.000 It's at a high school.

00:30:01.000 You're gonna see mass confusion break out.

00:30:03.000 A bunch of people are going to start asking for a recount and they're going to be refused.

00:30:07.000 Here we go.

00:30:09.000 If you want to raise a motion to the body to be heard I don't they said they found that there are three people that left so if you want to if you want to challenge those results and do another count

00:30:36.000 The vote, so you guys know what the vote was.

00:30:38.000 But the numbers do add up.

00:30:39.000 The numbers do add up too.

00:30:41.000 And they counted 224.

00:30:43.000 Our total the first round was 459.

00:30:46.000 Right on the money.

00:30:47.000 Right on the money.

00:30:48.000 So if three people walked out, we're still right on the money.

00:30:50.000 With our count of 232 and 226.

00:30:55.000 Just a second, you all have an opportunity.

00:30:57.000 I will announce the total, and then you can challenge it.

00:31:00.000 If they only count the people who joined the group, they're not getting a full count of the people who potentially left.

00:31:05.000 People could have left.

00:31:06.000 People could have left.

00:31:07.000 So we're saying they need to actually count every individual body, not just the people who stayed.

00:31:12.000 I'm telling you how that works.

00:31:14.000 If you want to challenge it, then challenge it, but you have to wait until I announce the vote.

00:31:17.000 It should be a full count of both sides, like you guys did.

00:31:20.000 Okay, so as you can see confusion breaking out over on the Democratic side of the aisle again Hillary Clinton Magically won six separate coin flips in order to win the Iowa Democratic caucuses, but I mean the fact is that

00:31:35.000 It's not a win for her.

00:31:36.000 It's a pretty big loss for her.

00:31:39.000 Here's the irony of Hillary Clinton. 0.70

00:31:40.000 The universe must despise Hillary Clinton, which would make sense since I despise Hillary Clinton and I contain multitudes. 1.00

00:31:46.000 But the fact is that the universe is conspiring against Hillary Clinton.

00:31:50.000 Think about this fact.

00:31:51.000 In 2008, Hillary Clinton wins a broad majority of the white vote in Democratic primaries. 0.99

00:31:56.000 And Barack Obama cleans her with blacks, and he wins the nomination. 0.99

00:32:01.000 He won 85% of the black vote in South Carolina, and he won something like 90% of the black vote in Mississippi.

00:32:06.000 And all across the South, he wins tons of black votes and he defeats Hillary Clinton.

00:32:10.000 Right?

00:32:10.000 If Barack Obama's a white guy, if his name is John Edwards, Hillary's the nominee in 2008.

00:32:14.000 So, she figures going into 2016, alright, I'm set now.

00:32:18.000 There's no black dude running for president.

00:32:20.000 You know, I'm cool. 0.77

00:32:21.000 The black community is good.

00:32:23.000 Look at the polls.

00:32:23.000 I'm popular in the black community, and I was so popular in the white community in 2008, no one can touch me.

00:32:28.000 I should waltz through this thing. 0.94

00:32:31.000 And along comes Bernie Sanders, a crazed old man screaming at the moon. 0.98

00:32:36.000 And suddenly she's losing the white vote by huge margins and she's clinging to the black vote. 0.97

00:32:40.000 So now she's Obama. 0.99

00:32:42.000 She's clinging to that black vote with everything that she's got in those robotic little hands of hers. 1.00

00:32:49.000 And it's truly an amazing reversal.

00:32:52.000 If Bernie Sanders were to embrace slavery reparations today, I'd like to see him do it, because I want to see this drama.

00:32:59.000 And first of all, as I mentioned last week, I have my movie that's still in production called Burning With Love, and it was the romance between Bernie Sanders and Hillary, and the ending has yet to be decided, but

00:33:12.000 We're right on track, okay?

00:33:13.000 If Bernie Sanders were to embrace slavery reparations, if he were to take the most left-wing position he could possibly take on race and start winning black people, Hillary would be toast.

00:33:24.000 She would be done. 0.95

00:33:24.000 You would have to put her on suicide watch. 0.95

00:33:26.000 It would be over for her.

00:33:28.000 And she'd be at home crying and cackling and...

00:33:32.000 Melting as you know somebody hit her with a bucket of water, and it was just it would be so glorious And I would love to see Bernie Sanders do this like I don't think Bernie Sanders wins a general election I don't think he beats Cruz.

00:33:43.000 I don't think that he beats Rubio.

00:33:44.000 I don't think he beats Trump

00:33:46.000 But if Bernie Sanders were to start taking the black vote away from her, she is toast.

00:33:50.000 She is donezo.

00:33:51.000 Because he's about to clean her in New Hampshire.

00:33:54.000 He's up, at what was the last poll, 30 points in New Hampshire?

00:33:57.000 He's going to destroy her in New Hampshire.

00:33:59.000 And especially after this, because the Bernie Sanders supporters are pissed off about Iowa.

00:34:03.000 P.O.'d.

00:34:05.000 And they should be.

00:34:05.000 They feel like it was stolen.

00:34:06.000 Bernie Sanders last night, he said, yeah, you know what?

00:34:09.000 Hell, I might contest this result.

00:34:10.000 I don't have to stick with this result.

00:34:12.000 Here's Bernie Sanders.

00:34:13.000 is capable of running and winning in any state in this country.

00:34:17.000 We look forward to doing well here in New Hampshire.

00:34:21.000 And after that, we're off to Nevada and then South Carolina, where I think we're going to surprise a whole lot of people, just as we did in Iowa.

00:34:29.000 And do you anticipate contesting this vote count at all?

00:34:32.000 Honestly, we just got off the plane and we don't know enough of it to say.

00:34:37.000 So he might.

00:34:38.000 He might.

00:34:39.000 Here's Bernie Sanders in his victory speech.

00:34:42.000 They both gave victory speeches last night.

00:34:44.000 You'll see the tenor.

00:34:45.000 Bernie is pretty enthused.

00:34:48.000 He's also a little nervous, you can tell. 1.00

00:34:50.000 Hillary looks like she wants to murder virgins and suck their blood to keep herself alive. 1.00

00:34:56.000 I mean, Hillary Clinton is 1.00

00:34:58.000 She is so upset and so angry and so wild.

00:35:02.000 It's pretty amazing. 0.99

00:35:03.000 So here is Bernie Sanders in his victory speech saying that he's going to tax everybody to pay for his free crap. 0.98

00:35:13.000 I've been all over this beautiful state of Iowa. 0.97

00:35:17.000 We have spoken to some 70,000 people at a meeting after the meeting.

00:35:23.000 I hear people standing up against Bernie.

00:35:30.000 I thought he was going to go age.

00:35:53.000 That is why I believe that in the year 2016, public colleges and universities should be tuition-free. 0.98

00:36:06.000 Free crap for everybody! 0.97

00:36:08.000 Woo! 0.99

00:36:09.000 Yeah! 1.00

00:36:11.000 We're gonna kill the rich people! 1.00

00:36:13.000 Yeah! 1.00

00:36:29.000 Okay, so Bernie was real enthused last night.

00:36:32.000 He talked about the economy in this speech as well, and he's an out-and-out socialist, right?

00:36:36.000 I mean, this guy, he's a commie.

00:36:37.000 He's a commie.

00:36:38.000 All socialists are are commies who know how to go slow, right?

00:36:41.000 Socialists are just commies with foreplay. 0.92

00:36:43.000 So here's Bernie Sanders, same topic, and he's going off about the economy, and it's just, you can see he's enthused, he's excited.

00:36:51.000 And why shouldn't he be?

00:36:53.000 He never thought he was going to be in this position.

00:36:55.000 I mean, Bernie Sanders, he must be thinking that he's going to wake up back in the insane asylum at any point here.

00:37:01.000 It was all a dream, and he's still strapped up in a padded room somewhere. 0.98

00:37:05.000 But here he is, winning Iowa, and he's going to kill her in New Hampshire. 0.99

00:37:09.000 More Bernie Sanders. 0.94

00:37:10.000 Let's do this thing.

00:37:11.000 We do not represent the interests of the billionaire class, Wall Street, or corporate America.

00:37:20.000 We don't want their money.

00:37:22.000 We will.

00:37:24.000 And I am very proud to tell you that we are the only candidate on the Democratic side without a super PAC.

00:37:32.000 And the reason that we have done so well

00:37:47.000 Here in Iowa, the reason I believe we're going to do so well in New Hampshire and in the other states that follow, the reason is the American people are saying no to a rigged economy.

00:38:03.000 Okay, all of this, by the way, we can pause it here.

00:38:06.000 All of this is a tacit rebuke to Hillary Clinton.

00:38:09.000 Here's the point.

00:38:09.000 Bernie Sanders basically just beat Hillary in Iowa.

00:38:12.000 He's about to kill her in New Hampshire.

00:38:13.000 He's done all of this without even opening up his guns on her. 1.00

00:38:17.000 Okay, for the last several months, he's been doing his whole, no one cares about your damn emails! 0.99

00:38:22.000 Two days before the caucuses, he said it's a very serious issue. 0.99

00:38:25.000 So he hasn't even opened up the guns on her yet, and he hasn't played the slavery reparations card, and the minute he plays the race card, she's toast.

00:38:32.000 I mean, she's toast well done.

00:38:35.000 I mean, she's in serious trouble if Bernie Sanders makes the right move here, if he actually wants to be president.

00:38:40.000 Okay, here is Hillary Clinton, and what you're about to see cannot be unseen.

00:38:45.000 Hillary Clinton, I mean, this is...

00:38:48.000 Gates of Hell open. 0.95

00:38:50.000 Maw of Satan wide. 0.95

00:38:52.000 And here comes Hillary. 1.00

00:38:53.000 I mean, first of all, look at this still of her.

00:38:55.000 Goodness gracious.

00:38:56.000 I mean, can you imagine that coming at you at three in the morning?

00:38:57.000 But here's Hillary Clinton. 1.00

00:39:00.000 Threat alert level has been raised from orange to red. 0.96

00:39:04.000 And Hillary Clinton looks like she wants to leap into the audience and murder the first baby that she can find. 1.00

00:39:10.000 By the way, pay attention in this video to two things. 0.99

00:39:13.000 One, Bill Clinton looks like just the smiling ghoul of death behind her.

00:39:17.000 I mean, he really does not look good.

00:39:18.000 And then behind him, you're about to see the real star of the show.

00:39:22.000 There's a frat boy or something who's got Hillary stickers on his face.

00:39:27.000 And he is much more amusing than the former first lady, who... I mean, look at that death glare. 0.84

00:39:33.000 Holy crap. 1.00

00:39:35.000 People say that Michelle Bachman and Sarah Palin had the crazy eyes. 1.00

00:39:39.000 Hillary Clinton looks like... Did you ever do the Indiana Jones ride and they always said, don't stare into the eye of Ra? 1.00

00:39:44.000 Like, don't stare into the eye of Ra?

00:39:49.000 Yeah, this is the eye of Ra.

00:39:50.000 Don't stare into Hillary Clinton's eyes. 0.99

00:39:53.000 You may not make it out.

00:39:55.000 Here we go.

00:39:57.000 I know we can create more good-paying jobs and incomes for hard-working Americans again.

00:40:03.000 I know that we can finish the job of universal health care coverage for every single man, woman, and child.

00:40:15.000 I know, I know we can combat climate change and be the clean energy superpower of the 21st century.

00:40:22.000 Why is Grandma yelling at me?

00:40:27.000 I know we can make our education system work for every one of our children, especially those who come with disadvantages.

00:40:35.000 And I'll beat you if you don't believe it!

00:40:36.000 I know we can make college affordable and get student debt off the backs of young people.

00:40:42.000 I haven't been this pissed since I threw a lamp at Bill.

00:40:45.000 And I know we can protect our rights.

00:40:49.000 Women's rights, gay rights, voting rights, immigrant rights, workers' rights.

00:40:57.000 She's so angry.

00:40:59.000 And look at Bill just nodding behind her.

00:41:01.000 I mean, Bill looks like he's somewhere else. 0.95

00:41:03.000 Bill's like watching pornography in his mind.

00:41:05.000 Bill's just sitting there going, I'm watching lady-on-lady action back here in my mind.

00:41:12.000 But it's just... I mean, she is so enraged. 0.95

00:41:15.000 She is so frustrated.

00:41:16.000 She's like, I have to show the passion because otherwise I can't look dispirited.

00:41:20.000 I have to show the passion.

00:41:21.000 And that red light there means warning, gang.

00:41:25.000 So there's Hillary Clinton just... 1.00

00:41:27.000 She's mad and she has a reason to be mad because God is going to reject her again. 1.00

00:41:33.000 It's really pathetic. 1.00

00:41:35.000 She says that she is excited, by the way, next clip she says she's excited to debate with Bernie Sanders and there's nothing that Hillary Clinton is less excited to do than debate with Bernie Sanders unless it is to have sex with her husband. 1.00

00:41:47.000 Here is Hillary Clinton. 0.99

00:41:49.000 I congratulate- Oh God, those eyes.

00:41:51.000 I congratulate my esteemed friends and opponents.

00:41:54.000 Oh my God.

00:41:56.000 I wish Governor O'Malley the very best.

00:41:58.000 He's a great public servant who has served- He's a great public servant!

00:42:02.000 America, our country.

00:42:03.000 She's so mad.

00:42:07.000 And I am excited about really getting into the debate with Senator Sanders about the best way forward to fight for us and America.

00:42:18.000 I'm so excited!

00:42:18.000 There's a guy eating the stickers in the background.

00:42:35.000 I am thrilled at all of the people who are playing a part in that.

00:42:39.000 Okay, Hillary Clinton transformed that guy into a newt, so behind her there's a guy who's actually trying to eat the stickers off his own face.

00:42:49.000 So all we've got here is an arm-wrestling scene at the old age home between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.

00:42:57.000 Honestly, I feel pretty good about Cruz vs. Rubio if what we got on the other side is a screaming old wench and Bernie Sanders.

00:43:04.000 I mean, this is just like... 0.84

00:43:07.000 Or I could say a screaming old wench and Hillary Clinton. 1.00

00:43:09.000 I mean, it applies to both of them. 1.00

00:43:11.000 It's pretty ridiculous. 0.85

00:43:13.000 Okay, so Hillary, by the way, says that she... I can't stop playing this because it's strangely addictive watching Hillary Clinton lose her mind in front of a mass audience. 0.98

00:43:21.000 And the media treated this like this is a fine speech.

00:43:23.000 The media treated this like there's nothing wrong here.

00:43:25.000 Hillary Clinton looks like she is going to nuke the Soviets. 0.99

00:43:29.000 Okay, that's what Hillary Clinton looks like here. 1.00

00:43:31.000 I haven't seen a public speaker this mad since Khrushchev.

00:43:35.000 Here's Hillary Clinton saying that she's breathing a big sigh of relief.

00:43:38.000 Here we go.

00:43:40.000 We have to be united against a Republican vision and candidates who would drive us apart and divide us.

00:43:50.000 That is not who we are, my friends.

00:43:53.000 I followed their campaign very closely.

00:43:56.000 I understand what they're appealing to, and I intend to stand against it.

00:44:02.000 I will not... She's going to rev it up in one second. 1.00

00:44:06.000 I will not let their divisiveness, their efforts to rip away the progress that we've made be successful, because we can't afford that.

00:44:17.000 So as I stand here tonight, breathing a big sigh of relief, thank you, Iowa!

00:44:27.000 How much Botox did she have before this? 0.89

00:44:28.000 I want you to know, I will keep doing what I have done my entire life.

00:44:34.000 Lying.

00:44:35.000 I will keep standing up for you.

00:44:37.000 I will keep fighting for you.

00:44:39.000 I will always work to achieve the America that I believe in, where the promise of that dream that we hold out to our children and our grandchildren never fades.

00:44:52.000 Okay, Bill is- Then she gets pissed off again.

00:44:54.000 Bill is literally sitting there drooling as he watches Lady on Lady action in his mind.

00:44:59.000 That's what he's doing in the background here.

00:45:01.000 He's got his mouth kind of- For people who can't see this, this is why you need to subscribe so you can see this tape when I'm mocking it.

00:45:06.000 Bill is there with his mouth, like, hanging half open, gazing off into the distance.

00:45:11.000 His eyes are completely glazed over.

00:45:14.000 It's a bizarre look.

00:45:15.000 It's a real bizarre look.

00:45:16.000 I mean, there he is.

00:45:16.000 Look at, oh boy.

00:45:18.000 He's like, uh, am I supposed to clap now?

00:45:20.000 I'm looking around.

00:45:21.000 Other people are clapping.

00:45:22.000 Let's do this thing.

00:45:22.000 So, strong, strong move by Hillary Clinton.

00:45:26.000 All right.

00:45:26.000 So the real star of the show, by the way, and you're about to see real conflict break out between Sanders supporters and Hillary supporters.

00:45:32.000 When Hillary was speaking last night, Sanders supporters were gathered around the state. 0.95

00:45:36.000 Here's what Sanders supporters were doing during Hillary's speech. 0.92

00:45:40.000 Listen closely.

00:45:43.000 Okay, so you can't hear folks what they're saying in the background.

00:45:47.000 Is they're chanting liar. 1.00

00:45:48.000 Hillary is a liar. 1.00

00:46:03.000 Yeah, things are about to get interesting between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. 0.99

00:46:07.000 The real star of the show, though, we really need to put some spotlight on the real star of the show at Hillary Clinton's rallies, is this guy behind Hillary Clinton, who is really enjoying himself in a unique way.

00:46:22.000 And here it is, courtesy of WHO.

00:46:26.000 Check out the dude with the stickers on his face, because he had them, I mean,

00:46:31.000 Honestly, the only person who's moving his mouth this much during this speech was Bill Clinton. 0.96

00:46:36.000 Again, thinking about that porn.

00:46:38.000 So here's the dude behind Bill Clinton. 0.97

00:46:40.000 And yeah, it got wild.

00:46:42.000 Here we go.

00:46:43.000 In the last few weeks, we finally began to have what I think is one of the most important substantive conversations that the Democratic Party could have.

00:46:54.000 And I am thrilled.

00:46:56.000 And we have to be united.

00:47:02.000 When it was all said and done, we have to be united against a Republican vision and candidates who would drive us apart and divide us.

00:47:15.000 That is not who we are, my friends.

00:47:17.000 I followed their campaign very closely.

00:47:21.000 I understand what they're appealing to, and I intend to stand against it.

00:47:25.000 This guy, folks, he's crossing his eyes, and he's, like, trying to chew stickers off his face.

00:47:29.000 He's gotta be thinking to himself, I came to a Hillary campaign because I was gonna pretend to be a feminist and try and get laid, and that just all went wildly wrong when I realized everyone here was above the age of 70. 0.99

00:47:37.000 He's standing behind them, just, like, making faces, crossing his eyes.

00:47:42.000 He's right behind Hillary Clinton.

00:47:44.000 So I said earlier that Obama used the backdrop of human faces, Hillary did too.

00:47:48.000 The problem is, she picked the wrong human faces, so things went wildly wrong for Hillary Clinton. 1.00

00:47:53.000 Okay, time for a little bit of stuff that I like, and then a couple of things that I hate.

00:47:58.000 So, things that I like.

00:47:59.000 First of all, I always like to give you an update on what I'm reading.

00:48:03.000 So, finishing up that Nate Silver book I was talking about, good book, there's another book that I'm reading now by a guy named Jonathan Gottschall, who's a professor somewhere in the East, and it's called Professor in the Cage.

00:48:14.000 And it's all about basically why it is that men love watching the fights.

00:48:19.000 Like, why men like watching boxing.

00:48:21.000 And I found myself interested in this book because my entire life I thought, I hate boxing.

00:48:25.000 I don't like contact sports.

00:48:27.000 Like, it's not just that I wouldn't engage in it.

00:48:28.000 I find it brutal and I'm a civilized person.

00:48:31.000 And then as I got older I realized that I sort of like watching the fights, like everybody else.

00:48:35.000 And so I started thinking about

00:48:37.000 Why is it that human beings are built this way?

00:48:39.000 And he makes a really compelling case that human beings, particularly men, are built this way.

00:48:43.000 And all of this nonsense you hear about there are no brain differences between men and women... Okay, you really have to be an idiot to believe that there are no differences between men and women. 0.99

00:48:52.000 Just look at their behavior, okay? 1.00

00:48:53.000 There's anybody who... The people who act as though the new scientific brain scans are exact enough to

00:49:00.000 to suggest that all differences between men and women are culturally created.

00:49:03.000 These are people who have never met a man or a woman, and these differences exist across cultures.

00:49:08.000 It's a pretty good book.

00:49:09.000 I'm about halfway through it.

00:49:10.000 I'll give you the update when I finish.

00:49:12.000 Okay, another thing that I like.

00:49:13.000 John Cleese, the Monty Python comedian.

00:49:15.000 You've also seen him in Rat Race, which is, by the way, a very, very funny movie.

00:49:19.000 If you've never seen Rat Race, you should check it out.

00:49:21.000 You'll be laughing.

00:49:22.000 It's a takeoff and it's a mad, mad, mad, mad world.

00:49:25.000 Here is John Cleese.

00:49:26.000 He's talking about the political correctness

00:49:29.000 That is destroying all of us.

00:49:31.000 And, hey, someone from Hollywood saying the right thing.

00:49:34.000 Here we go.

00:49:36.000 I'm offended every day.

00:49:38.000 For example, the British newspapers every day offend me with their laziness, their nastiness, and their inaccuracy.

00:49:47.000 But I'm not going to expect someone to stop that happening.

00:49:50.000 I should just simply speak out about it, you know.

00:49:53.000 Sometimes when people are offended, they want someone to just come in and say, right, stop that, to whoever is offending them.

00:50:00.000 And of course,

00:50:01.000 Good on John Cleese. 0.99

00:50:04.000 It's good that there are some people in Hollywood who don't have their heads completely up their ass. 0.99

00:50:16.000 Now, things I hate. 1.00

00:50:18.000 People in Hollywood with their head completely up their ass. 0.99

00:50:20.000 So, there are a bunch of ladies who came out and endorsed Hillary Clinton before the caucuses yesterday. 1.00

00:50:27.000 And they include Lena Dunham.

00:50:28.000 Lena Dunham today says she's going off Twitter again.

00:50:32.000 She says that she's done with Twitter again.

00:50:36.000 Which is pretty incredible.

00:50:38.000 She says that she's sick of being targeted by mean people. 0.52

00:50:41.000 That's me, gang. 0.99

00:50:44.000 And the reason I'm mean to Lena Dunham is because she sexually abused her sister, bragged about it, accused a guy falsely of rape, bragged about it, and now endorses Hillary Clinton, who has covered up for a rapist, and brags about it. 1.00

00:50:56.000 So, Jamie Lee Curtis and a bunch of these other idiot women in Hollywood have now endorsed Hillary Clinton. 1.00

00:51:02.000 Jamie Lee Curtis, I mean, if you one look at this face, why wouldn't you trust her to pick your presidential candidate? 0.99

00:51:07.000 Here is Jamie Lee Curtis and crowd.

00:51:10.000 I'll read off the names for people who can't see.

00:51:13.000 I want my President of the United States to make decisions on my behalf, based on her experience, her command, her intelligence, and from her big, warm, embracing, feminine heart.

00:51:30.000 I stand with her.

00:51:31.000 Amber Tamblyn.

00:51:32.000 I'm with her.

00:51:32.000 Rosie O'Donoghue.

00:51:33.000 I'm with her.

00:51:34.000 Amy Poehler.

00:51:34.000 I'm with her.

00:51:35.000 Jemima Kern.

00:51:36.000 I'm with her.

00:51:36.000 Rena Manatee Dunham.

00:51:37.000 Because she's the most qualified person to hear all of our needs, and mine, as a woman.

00:51:43.000 Why with Hillary? 0.99

00:51:44.000 Because she's fighting for immigration reform. 1.00

00:51:45.000 Okay, and a bunch of people you've never heard of come after that.

00:51:48.000 So basically, we could sum all of this up in three syllables. 0.99

00:51:52.000 Vagina! 1.00

00:51:53.000 Woo! 0.99

00:51:54.000 I mean that... Her big, warm, feminine heart.

00:51:58.000 Katy Perry.

00:51:58.000 I'm embracing her because she's a woman and she understands the needs of other women.

00:52:02.000 Right.

00:52:02.000 I remember when you backed Sarah Palin because of that.

00:52:04.000 Don't we all remember that?

00:52:05.000 Yeah?

00:52:06.000 No. 0.99

00:52:06.000 I don't remember that either because that's stupid. 0.99

00:52:08.000 Right? 0.99

00:52:09.000 But this is the routine. 1.00

00:52:10.000 Honestly, women who are dumb enough to fall for this. 1.00

00:52:13.000 I don't support men because they have penises. 1.00

00:52:16.000 Okay, because that's idiotic. 1.00

00:52:18.000 President Obama is terrible in every way. 1.00

00:52:20.000 I share a gender with him.

00:52:21.000 That may be all I share with him.

00:52:23.000 Okay, the idea that all of these women are endorsing Hillary Clinton, you hear any policy prescriptions here for why they like Hillary? 1.00

00:52:29.000 Anything they think she does that's really great?

00:52:32.000 The real thing is, they support Hillary, number one, because she's a woman, and two, because she's pro-abortion.

00:52:37.000 That's it.

00:52:37.000 That's the whole thing.

00:52:39.000 Right? 0.85

00:52:39.000 She's pro-abortion, and she wants to fund Planned Parenthood and let them have sex without 0.85

00:52:43.000 Consequences, or more importantly, have us pay for their sex without consequences. 1.00

00:52:47.000 And two, she's a woman. 0.91

00:52:50.000 I'm sorry, but I'm not particularly enamored of Hollywood starlets who got famous, presumably many of these women, particularly Lena Dunham. 0.92

00:52:57.000 She got famous for taking off her clothes in an unusual way because she's ugly. 1.00

00:53:01.000 But even Jamie Lee Curtis was a starlet at one point.

00:53:04.000 She got famous for being pretty. 1.00

00:53:06.000 But all of these women who are now standing up for feminism by saying we can only elect a woman, it really is distasteful.

00:53:12.000 But I guess this is the Hollywood routine.

00:53:15.000 And it's okay if women do this. 1.00

00:53:16.000 If men do it, it's sexism, by the way. 1.00

00:53:17.000 If men say, I'll never vote for a woman like Hillary, because I think that really only men understand what it is that men need. 0.79

00:53:23.000 That's sexism. 1.00

00:53:24.000 But if Jamie Lee Curtis says, we need someone with a big, warm, feminine heart, which, by the way, is Bill Clinton's pickup line, then, all of a sudden, that's totally fine.

00:53:34.000 That's totally fine.

00:53:35.000 And finally, we end with this.

00:53:36.000 Okay, so, what's amazing, one of the things that's amazing about the Republican caucuses is that last night, about 60% of all the vote

00:53:45.000 Went to people who are not white. 0.51

00:53:47.000 9%, I think it was almost 10%, went to Ben Carson.

00:53:50.000 27% went to Ted Cruz.

00:53:52.000 23% went to Marco Rubio.

00:53:56.000 Rubio and Cruz are both Hispanic, and Carson is black.

00:53:59.000 Wouldn't you think it would be historic, the first Hispanic candidate ever to win the Iowa caucuses?

00:54:03.000 Wouldn't that be kind of amazing, right?

00:54:05.000 Can you imagine?

00:54:06.000 I mean, Hillary, she's the first woman, presumably, ever to win the Iowa caucuses. 1.00

00:54:10.000 We're going to get that narrative.

00:54:13.000 No, he's not real Hispanic because he's a Republican, obviously.

00:54:17.000 So that's the routine that we're going to get now.

00:54:20.000 Chris Matthews, however, he wanted to make sure that everybody knows that people are racist in Iowa.

00:54:25.000 So here is Chris Matthews.

00:54:26.000 He's about to go on the minority hunt. 0.98

00:54:29.000 We gotta hunt for some black people. 1.00

00:54:30.000 Let's do this thing! 0.99

00:54:31.000 Iowa, boom!

00:54:32.000 Go! 0.95

00:54:34.000 They know the party committees could easily nationalize the primaries next time around.

00:54:38.000 They want to stay first.

00:54:39.000 I just saw a minority voter there.

00:54:41.000 I mean, it is largely a white crowd, to be blunt about it.

00:54:43.000 It's a very white state.

00:54:48.000 So, they're just having a completely separate conversation, and then there he is, like, where's Waldo?

00:54:52.000 Ah, I found him!

00:54:53.000 There's black Waldo! 0.96

00:54:54.000 I found black Waldo!

00:54:56.000 Let's all get excited!

00:54:57.000 You know, I found a black guy!

00:54:58.000 Ah!

00:54:59.000 Ah!

00:55:00.000 What in the world?

00:55:01.000 Like, do you think people on the left might see things in terms of race a little too much?

00:55:05.000 Just a little too much?

00:55:07.000 Okay, Chris, 4% of Iowa is black.

00:55:11.000 Four.

00:55:12.000 It really is one of the whitest states in America. 0.97

00:55:14.000 Oh my God, look at all these white people. 1.00

00:55:16.000 I can't stand it. 1.00

00:55:16.000 Oh, look, a black guy! 1.00

00:55:18.000 Oh, I can sleep easy at night. 0.99

00:55:19.000 I've seen a black guy today.

00:55:21.000 Oh, well, it makes my life so much better. 0.98

00:55:23.000 If it had been a white guy, God, I'd have kept myself up, counting black guys in my head. 0.97

00:55:29.000 It's just amazing how the left thinks. 0.69

00:55:32.000 So, all in all, it was a good day in American politics.

00:55:35.000 We haven't been able to say that for a while, and we'll see as the polls come out how Donald Trump, does he fade?

00:55:41.000 Does he maintain?

00:55:43.000 And will Hillary Clinton at any point throw herself full-fledged into the ocean because Bernie Sanders endorses slavery reparations? 1.00

00:55:51.000 These burning questions will remain with you overnight, and we will be back tomorrow.

00:55:54.000 I am Ben Shapiro.

00:55:55.000 This is The Ben Shapiro Show.

The Ben Shapiro Show - February 02, 2016

Ep. 65 - The Greatest Iowa Caucuses Ever

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