The Ben Shapiro Show - December 15, 2019


Frank Luntz | The Ben Shapiro Show Sunday Special Ep. 81

Topics
Trump's standing and accomplishments swing states fake news Republican Party crisis income inequality materialism and government responsibility public schools education language in politics language matters political ads
Hosted by
Ben Shapiro
Guests
Frank Luntz
Mentioned
Donald Trump Joe Biden Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton Pete Buttigieg Barack Obama Frank Luntz Harris Genius The Ben Shapiro Show Sunday NYU Abu Dhabi Michelle Obama Rush Limbaugh Paul Ryan James Q. Wilson Jean Kirkpatrick Mika Brzezinski William F. Buckley Caitlin Maynard and 22 more
Big Win For BoJo | Ep. 916 When Is OK Just Not Okay? | Ep. 917

Episode Stats


Length

1 hour and 3 minutes

Words per minute

183.54

Word count

11,731

Sentence count

979

Harmful content

Misogyny

7

sentences flagged

Toxicity

19

sentences flagged

Hate speech

15

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Frank Luntz is the pioneer of the instant response focus group technique and the New York Times bestselling author of Words That Work. He s best known for his political commentary, with more media outlets turning to him to understand American voters than any other political pollster. Today, we are joined by Dr. Frank to talk about his thoughts on President Trump s 2020 re-election campaign and why he thinks he s a better candidate than Hillary Clinton for the White House than she is for the Democratic nomination. He also talks about why he doesn t think the media should be as critical of Trump as it is of him, and why they should be focused on what he has accomplished, rather than what he hasn t done, and how he communicates his ideas and ideas to voters in order to get them to vote for him. He s also the author of the best-selling book, "Words That Work," which is a must-read for anyone who wants to understand what it means to be a good politician and how to communicate effectively to voters. If you like what he says, tweet me and let me know what you thought of this episode! Timestamps: 1:00:00 - What does he think of President Trump's 2020 campaign? 4:30 - Does he still have control of the IRS? 6:00 - Does Hillary Clinton have a chance to win the 2020 election? 7:00 -- Is he a good presidential candidate? 8:15 - Can he still get re-elected in 2020? 9: Does he really have a shot at it? 11: Is he better than the other candidates? 13:40 - Is he more authentic than the rest of us? 14:00 | What are we should we be worried about him? 15:20 - What s the best way to communicate better? 16:30 17:30 | What do we need to do? 18:40 | Can he be a better person? 19:10 | How does he have a good guy? 21:40 22:50 | What s he's a good president? 23:00 Is he really better than us better than we think he s better than Hillary? 26: What do you think of the media? 27: What is the best thing he's accomplished so far? 29:30 Is he good at communicating his ideas? 32:10

Transcript

Transcripts from "The Ben Shapiro Show" are sourced from the Knowledge Fight Interactive Search Tool. Explore them interactively here.
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
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Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 I've already been in 30 states.
00:00:01.000 I got another three or four more to go before we reach New Year's I do know how mad we are. 0.90
00:00:07.000 I do know how how this ugliness this Damn desire to be heard not to listen not to learn but to be heard How it's undermining so many things and it doesn't have to be this way. 0.81
00:00:20.000 - Hey, hey, and welcome to This is the Ben Shapiro Show Sunday special. 0.97
00:00:30.000 Today we are joined by Dr. Frank Luntz.
00:00:33.000 Frank is the pioneer of the instant response focus group technique and the New York Times bestselling author of Words That Work.
00:00:38.000 He's best known for his political commentary, with more media outlets turning to him to understand American voters than any other political pollster.
00:00:45.000 Frank, thanks so much for taking the time to stop by.
00:00:46.000 I really appreciate it.
00:00:48.000 What, 50 minutes from the House?
00:00:50.000 So it's actually pretty close.
00:00:51.000 You're a convenient guess.
00:00:52.000 It made perfect sense.
00:00:53.000 So why don't we start with what's on everybody's mind.
00:00:56.000 How do you assess Trump's, President Trump's standing leading up to the 2020 election?
00:01:01.000 Does he still have control of the IRS?
00:01:04.000 Can I still be audited?
00:01:07.000 On an accomplishment level, what he's actually done is incredibly impressive.
00:01:16.000 The unemployment rate at a 50-year low, Black unemployment at an all-time low, Latino unemployment at an all-time low, wages going up, the economy strong, even with all the yelling over China. 0.84
00:01:27.000 Economically, it's been pretty incredible.
00:01:30.000 Tax policy, people get to keep more of their hard-earned income.
00:01:34.000 In foreign policy, we're not in the middle of a war.
00:01:38.000 On what he's done, it's pretty impressive.
00:01:41.000 On how he says it, how he communicates, I'm not sure how much of it I like.
00:01:47.000 He and I have talked infrequently, but enough, and I've expressed some concern.
00:01:56.000 I'll give you an example.
00:01:58.000 He likes to talk about building the wall, which I'm sure that most of your viewers appreciate.
00:02:03.000 The problem is, when you talk about building a wall, you've got 40% support, 60% opposition.
00:02:09.000 If you talk about building a barrier, it goes up to 60%.
00:02:12.000 If you talk about using human intelligence, technology, a physical barrier where it's necessary, if you're precise about it, it goes up to 79% support.
00:02:24.000 Trump's idea of instilling border security?
00:02:27.000 It's a winner.
00:02:29.000 The public supports it.
00:02:30.000 Democrats support it.
00:02:31.000 But when you just talk about a wall, it's a great applause line for his supporters, but it doesn't get you where you need to go.
00:02:39.000 And on issues like this, sometimes what he says actually undermines what he wants to do.
00:02:46.000 So a lot of his supporters will say, well, the world of politics has changed.
00:02:49.000 He understands that we live in a base-only world, that the moderates don't exist anymore, there aren't any swing voters, it's just a matter of getting your base excited.
00:02:56.000 And also, they might say something like, well, if Trump says build a barrier, then the next thing that happens, the media just spin on that language, and suddenly barriers are bad.
00:03:04.000 Because no matter what Trump does, the media will always caricature it as the greatest of all evils.
00:03:09.000 So, you obviously spent your career picking the words that work, trying to help people figure out what's the best way to express themselves, to be convincing.
00:03:17.000 Does that matter in an era of Trump?
00:03:18.000 Have things changed fundamentally?
00:03:20.000 Yes.
00:03:21.000 You're correct.
00:03:21.000 They have fundamentally changed.
00:03:23.000 And I have to admit, I had an argument with the president over stuff that he said about Baltimore, which is a very troubled city.
00:03:31.000 I know something of it because I used to go to sporting events there, and on occasion I would travel into the community.
00:03:38.000 And it is not a healthy city.
00:03:41.000 But it should not be derided that way.
00:03:43.000 I just, I have, I felt very bad for the people because I thought they were being insulted because one of their congressmen was challenging Trump directly.
00:03:53.000 And what I got back from his campaign manager is that I'm elitist.
00:03:57.000 I come from the old-fashioned establishment.
00:04:00.000 I don't understand that under Donald Trump, we call things what they are.
00:04:04.000 And my parents taught me at a very young age, and I should know because I'm overweight today, that you don't walk up to a fat person and say, hey, you realize you're fat.
00:04:15.000 You don't say everything that comes to your mind.
00:04:17.000 You don't insult people when you don't need to.
00:04:21.000 And if you disagree with them, you find a way to bring them over rather than trying to bludgeon them.
00:04:27.000 And so his communication for me, and I've said this to him, is very problematic.
00:04:33.000 But I won't let that get in the way of what he's accomplished.
00:04:37.000 And I won't let what he's accomplished get in the way of how he communicates it.
00:04:41.000 They are both important.
00:04:43.000 America's a great country because we're a good country.
00:04:46.000 It is not that we have a wonderful GPA, a GPA, wonderful GNP.
00:04:50.000 It is not that we are, geez, my head is in academia.
00:04:54.000 It's not that we are wealthy.
00:04:58.000 It's that when people are hurting, Americans come. 0.55
00:05:02.000 When people are suffering, we're the ones who do something about it.
00:05:06.000 We're always the first and we don't ask for a thank you.
00:05:08.000 We just do it because it's who we are and what we're about.
00:05:12.000 And I want us to be a good people, not just a successful people.
00:05:16.000 And I wish that some of the language were a little bit more gentle.
00:05:20.000 I think he can still really energize his base.
00:05:24.000 I think he can be just as successful if he tones this stuff down a bit.
00:05:29.000 And I know that he doesn't agree.
00:05:31.000 I know that the campaign people don't agree.
00:05:34.000 We'll just have to agree to disagree.
00:05:36.000 Yeah, I mean, one of the things I've suggested to members of his campaign is that, for me, it's not even necessarily the language he uses, although I have many of the same problems.
00:05:44.000 It's the targets of the language that he uses.
00:05:46.000 Meaning that if you want to speak bluntly about You know, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi whining and whimpering in a cave.
00:05:51.000 I don't think that many Americans have a problem with that.
00:05:54.000 I think if you apply similar language to Mika Brzezinski, then suddenly a lot of suburban women go, no, I'm not super interested in that.
00:06:02.000 I do wonder if the, because the art of politics is the art of persuasion, and Trump is not a persuader.
00:06:09.000 He's just a blunt instrument who says whatever comes to mind.
00:06:11.000 But he thinks he is.
00:06:12.000 He thinks he is.
00:06:13.000 He thinks he turns people around.
00:06:16.000 And arguably, we've never had a candidate who had a 40% job approval rating, 38%, on election day and got elected president.
00:06:24.000 So it's clearly something he's saying is tapping into a strong, near majority of the population.
00:06:32.000 It's not a majority.
00:06:34.000 And so he thinks that because he went from 38% approval in 2016, and he's at 43% now, he's going to do even better in the election.
00:06:45.000 And what I've tried to communicate is, you're losing people who would vote for you otherwise, but they just don't like what you say.
00:06:54.000 And they feel so uncomfortable about it, and they don't want to go through four more years of this.
00:07:01.000 anger and yelling and then everything being a crisis or everything being in chaos and again i know your viewers the first thing they're doing right now we're only six minutes into the show they're typing away that i'm a traitor or i'm a rhino or i don't get it but the thing is i do because unlike most of your viewers i'm in virtually every state in the country every year I've already been in 30 states.
00:07:28.000 I got another three or four more to go before we reach New Year's.
00:07:32.000 Not many people talk to as many people as I do.
00:07:34.000 And I do know how mad we are. 0.97
00:07:36.000 I do know how this ugliness, this Damn desire to be heard, not to listen, not to learn, but to be heard. 0.97
00:07:48.000 How it's undermining so many things, and it doesn't have to be this way. 0.97
00:07:51.000 So in a second, I want to ask you about, since you've been in all these states, where you think the swing states are going.
00:07:56.000 Because the polls have been actually fairly strong for Trump in the swing states, even though nationally he's polling very poorly.
00:08:01.000 So I'm going to ask you about that in just one second.
00:08:02.000 But first, let's talk about the importance of protecting your data.
00:08:06.000 It is very important to protect your data because lots of people are after it.
00:08:09.000 Big tech.
00:08:10.000 Hackers.
00:08:10.000 The government.
00:08:11.000 I've been talking about ExpressVPN on my show for so long.
00:08:13.000 You already understand why encrypting your network data is important, but some of you have still not acted.
00:08:18.000 So why?
00:08:19.000 Why?
00:08:20.000 Well, maybe you're thinking it doesn't affect you.
00:08:21.000 Because, hey, you're not me, and lots of people want my data, but they don't want your data.
00:08:25.000 Wrong way to think about this.
00:08:26.000 If you don't use ExpressVPN, it's like leaving your front door unlocked every time you go out.
00:08:30.000 Sure, nothing might happen for years, but when a break-in does happen, they're going to take your silverware.
00:08:34.000 One of the easiest ways to secure your internet data?
00:08:36.000 ExpressVPN.
00:08:37.000 You click one button on your computer or your smartphone, and now you are protected.
00:08:41.000 This is why I use ExpressVPN.
00:08:42.000 People want my data.
00:08:43.000 Hackers want my data.
00:08:44.000 I've been hacked before.
00:08:45.000 It is no fun.
00:08:46.000 I've had people attempt to hack into not only my personal data, but also into my credit cards.
00:08:50.000 It's terrible.
00:08:51.000 The only question is, why haven't you gotten ExpressVPN yet?
00:08:54.000 Now I'm protected.
00:08:54.000 I did.
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00:09:04.000 Okay, so let's talk for a second about the swing states.
00:09:10.000 So you just talked about how many states you've been in, and obviously for President Trump, this election basically comes down to the swing states.
00:09:16.000 His chances of winning the national popular vote continue to be extremely low.
00:09:21.000 California and New York are just too populous.
00:09:23.000 He is pulling well from the polls that I've seen in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, more durably than I thought he would at this point.
00:09:28.000 Not Pennsylvania, but yes in Michigan and yes in Wisconsin, but there are other states.
00:09:33.000 You have to look at Ohio because Sherrod Brown could be a vice presidential nominee with any Democrat.
00:09:38.000 And that means Ohio switches.
00:09:40.000 You have to look at Iowa because of the trade war and the farmers being particularly hurt and Trump's Unfavorability has been rising over the last three or four months in that state.
00:09:51.000 Obviously, look at North Carolina.
00:09:52.000 I consider that state to be the most evenly divided of any in the country.
00:09:56.000 Then two others, New Hampshire and Arizona on the Republican side.
00:10:01.000 And frankly, there's a chance that Republicans could win Minnesota from the Democrats.
00:10:05.000 So those are the states that I'm following.
00:10:06.000 You'll notice I didn't say Florida.
00:10:08.000 They actually think Trump will do okay there.
00:10:10.000 But these states are too close to call.
00:10:13.000 The Democrats know just as much as the Republicans do.
00:10:16.000 And in those states, we're going to have $3 billion spent on eight or nine states.
00:10:24.000 And there's only 6% of the population that is truly undecided.
00:10:28.000 So imagine spending $3 billion on 20% of the states and 6% of the people in those 20%.
00:10:36.000 We should just buy them a car.
00:10:39.000 But that's what it's going to feel like.
00:10:40.000 It's going to be $1,000 per voter to try to influence them.
00:10:45.000 So how much does the Democratic nominee matter?
00:10:47.000 So President Trump's specialty may not be building up his own likability.
00:10:52.000 What I've said is that politics is the art of making it difficult to vote for your opponent and easy to vote for you.
00:10:57.000 And Trump is great at one part of that and horrible at the other.
00:10:59.000 Which, again, he doesn't understand. 0.99
00:11:01.000 He'll be watching this and say, oh, that's ridiculous. 0.97
00:11:03.000 He knows nothing. 0.98
00:11:05.000 But he doesn't hear.
00:11:07.000 And he says he does, but I don't believe he does.
00:11:10.000 Because he would feel the people Who have a job now who didn't.
00:11:15.000 Who have more money in their pockets than they did three years ago.
00:11:18.000 That key question, are you better off today than you were four years ago?
00:11:23.000 He's succeeding in that.
00:11:24.000 He really is.
00:11:26.000 And he's getting no credit from the media.
00:11:27.000 You would not know that from the networks.
00:11:29.000 You would not know that from the cable news programs.
00:11:33.000 But even though they're better off, they're still hesitant.
00:11:37.000 And he has to ask himself, why?
00:11:40.000 With an economy that's the strongest economy in my lifetime.
00:11:44.000 I know in yours.
00:11:46.000 Surely in mine too.
00:11:48.000 Why isn't he at 55% approval?
00:11:50.000 Why isn't he beating every Democrat by 15 or 20%?
00:11:53.000 If he were Barack Obama at this point, it would be a landslide.
00:11:58.000 It's not.
00:11:59.000 And I recognize that the media does not give him a fair shake.
00:12:02.000 But even part of that is his fault.
00:12:06.000 Beating up on them.
00:12:07.000 Ridiculing them at press conferences.
00:12:10.000 Ridiculing the whole profession.
00:12:12.000 Everyone uses the phrase fake news.
00:12:14.000 I've been in a dozen countries in the last six months and they're talking about fake news.
00:12:18.000 And every time I hear this, I think, wow, the president really has had a global impact.
00:12:24.000 He should understand that it doesn't have to be this way.
00:12:30.000 But he doesn't, which makes Joe Biden a 50-50 shot for president.
00:12:36.000 It makes Elizabeth Warren, who I think is the next most likely nominee, makes her a 45% shot, even though her positions are extreme. 0.99
00:12:48.000 Any of these Democrats, any of them, have a shot, not because of what Trump has done, but because of what he has said.
00:12:55.000 Let's go through some of the Democratic field.
00:12:57.000 So I agree that Biden, I've been saying this for years, that Biden is the strongest candidate to go up against Trump, mainly because it's not bad to be an actual corpse running against Trump.
00:13:06.000 Meaning if you're just a default, non-alive human being, then you're probably going to perform better against Trump than somebody who doesn't have it all baked into the cake.
00:13:13.000 Now you realize that if you only said it a little bit slower, he could actually hear you.
00:13:17.000 There's only so much I can do with that.
00:13:19.000 I lose my train of thought.
00:13:20.000 And also, I like to exist just on the edge of a speed where only dogs can hear me.
00:13:26.000 So that's my goal, is to be right on the other side of that particular line.
00:13:29.000 And cats?
00:13:30.000 Exactly.
00:13:31.000 Only animals.
00:13:32.000 There's a whole untapped market in the podcast arena that I'm really going for.
00:13:35.000 As long as they can operate the books that the Nielsen family That's exactly right.
00:13:41.000 So Biden, I've been saying for a long time, because he is 100% name ID, because he's not scary, and part of the fact that he's not scary is the fact that he doesn't seem completely functional.
00:13:52.000 He just seems like a default candidate who's there.
00:13:56.000 That's actually a pretty good position to be in, as opposed to somebody like Warren, who Trump can rightly point to somebody like Warren and say, you really want to screw up this whole country just by electing somebody who's got these crazy policy proposals.
00:14:08.000 Biden doesn't seem to know which state he's in.
00:14:10.000 And I actually don't think that cuts necessarily against Biden.
00:14:12.000 I think that actually cuts against Trump in some ways.
00:14:14.000 I know that Biden is a constitutional expert, but he should be.
00:14:17.000 He was actually there in the room when they wrote the document.
00:14:20.000 That's the line that I just heard.
00:14:21.000 But he is, he's qualified and he's capable.
00:14:26.000 He's certainly more experienced than his running mate, Barack Obama, was.
00:14:31.000 He's been engaged in foreign policy.
00:14:34.000 He knows the rules of the road.
00:14:37.000 And when he gets righteously indignant, he's actually very effective.
00:14:42.000 But that comes less and less often, and I think it's coming across now as mean, as opposed to moralistic, but I would not dismiss him.
00:14:52.000 And frankly, as much as she is extreme in her positions, and some Democrats are now starting to get nervous about her, Elizabeth Warren is electable. 0.99
00:15:03.000 All these people are electable.
00:15:05.000 And the president's gonna have to figure out how he can debate them without making his own language, his own Twitter account the issue.
00:15:17.000 If he can focus on where the country is right now, he will be reelected.
00:15:22.000 If the focus is on him as a person, I gotta tell you, I talk to Republicans who will not give him another chance if that's what they're voting on.
00:15:34.000 So this has been my going theory, is that if the election is a referendum on the Democratic candidate, the Democrats lose.
00:15:39.000 If the referendum is an election on Trump personally, then Trump loses.
00:15:44.000 And I felt the same way in 2016.
00:15:45.000 I think what everybody got wrong about 2016 is they thought it was going to be a referendum on Trump because he was this out-of-the-box character, and it actually was a referendum on Hillary Clinton with a huge number of Democrats saying, number one, she's going to win, so I'm not showing up to vote, and number two, I don't like her that much, so I'm certainly not getting up in the middle of the winter to go vote for this person not like very much who's certainly going to win.
00:16:04.000 And my great fear with Biden as a Republican is that you're not gonna have, it's not gonna be a referendum on Biden.
00:16:10.000 Because how do you have a referendum on a piece of paper?
00:16:12.000 Like it's just, he's, he's, he's. - What do he do to you? - He's just, he's a boring, nothing of a, like he's a man who's run for president 87 times and lost each time.
00:16:23.000 The only reason he's even on the stage right now is because of his association with an all-time great politician, Barack Obama.
00:16:29.000 And even with the fact that he has the glow of Obama cast over him, he still can't break 30% in a national poll among Democrats.
00:16:35.000 Yes, but they've not pulled him down.
00:16:37.000 No, that's right.
00:16:38.000 He's very durable.
00:16:38.000 He's durable.
00:16:39.000 At this point, Howard Dean was collapsing.
00:16:42.000 Right.
00:16:43.000 At this point, Ed Muskie was collapsing.
00:16:46.000 I could give you a list, but Gary Hart, who had surged up, was already coming down at this point.
00:16:52.000 He is durable, and he's credible.
00:16:54.000 It feels like Romney 2012.
00:16:56.000 It feels like the Democrats saw a guy who was kind of the default candidate, and then they said, well, let's take a look at all these other candidates.
00:17:04.000 And then you got the rotating wheel of candidates, just like in 2012, where suddenly Herman Cain was Then he gets hurt.
00:17:08.000 for five minutes.
00:17:08.000 And then it was back to the original guy.
00:17:10.000 He's like, okay, fine.
00:17:11.000 We tried all these other people.
00:17:12.000 I guess we'll settle on him.
00:17:13.000 And it feels that way with Biden, especially because nobody's been able to crack any amount of black support except for Biden once he gets to the South.
00:17:21.000 Do you think that the primary schedule is going to matter here at all?
00:17:24.000 If he loses both Iowa and New Hampshire, how bad do you think?
00:17:27.000 Then he gets hurt.
00:17:27.000 And with Bloomberg coming into the race, and I would say to you, Bloomberg has no chance or had no chance because Democrats don't like billionaires.
00:17:37.000 But when you're the only one with money and 36% of the delegates are up in one day and everybody has spent everything that they have and you still have tens of millions of dollars to spend, you can't write them off.
00:17:51.000 I notice as I'm traveling, I'm at airport restaurants, or I'm in my hotel room, I turn on the TV, and there's a Bloomberg ad everywhere, constantly.
00:18:03.000 I know how much this costs.
00:18:04.000 This guy is advertising everywhere, and it's going to have an impact.
00:18:08.000 It may not have an impact in Iowa and New Hampshire.
00:18:11.000 It may not have an impact nationwide.
00:18:13.000 But on Super Tuesday States, he's going to be a player.
00:18:16.000 You know the rules.
00:18:17.000 Unlike the Republicans, where it was very much winner-take-all, so all you had to do was get 35% in some state.
00:18:25.000 In the Democratic rules, if you get 15% in a congressional district, you get delegates.
00:18:31.000 You get 15% statewide, you get delegates.
00:18:34.000 So it's very hard.
00:18:36.000 You can be getting 15 or 20% in state after state, and you're still running up a good percentage of delegates for the national convention.
00:18:44.000 We could easily have a situation where it is brokered.
00:18:48.000 Like, what do you think are the chances of a brokered convention?
00:18:48.000 I was about to ask you that.
00:18:51.000 And if it is brokered, what are the chances they go off the board for somebody like Michelle Obama?
00:18:55.000 And if they went off the board for her, that's game, set, and match.
00:18:57.000 Agreed.
00:18:59.000 And again, I would love to take this podcast, I'd love to take this broadcast and show it to Trump and watch him go crazy.
00:19:07.000 No one's done the Michelle Obama.
00:19:09.000 Donald Trump matchup.
00:19:10.000 That's not a close matchup.
00:19:12.000 That's a 60-40 matchup.
00:19:13.000 I agree with that.
00:19:15.000 And they'll protect her.
00:19:17.000 They'll shelter her.
00:19:18.000 She spent the last eight years rebuilding herself from the radical who was saying her husband was going to heal the soul of the country, and she was writing theses about how America was systemically racist.
00:19:28.000 And now she's everybody's aunt.
00:19:31.000 She's writing these nice books about how she raises her kids.
00:19:35.000 And she's Oprah, but politically savvy.
00:19:38.000 You have Mayor Pete, which I haven't talked about, Biden, Warren, and Sanders.
00:19:44.000 All four of them have a claim to 15% of the vote.
00:19:49.000 Well, if all four of them stay in, and there'll be some wild card, then it becomes very hard to get to 50% of the vote.
00:19:56.000 And superdelegates do not vote on the first ballot.
00:20:00.000 So they can't tilt it in any direction until the second ballot.
00:20:05.000 Yeah, this election cycle, the Democrats could go all the way to June and even into July.
00:20:10.000 What do you think are the chances, in a second I'm going to ask you, the chances of Hillary Clinton jumping back in the race?
00:20:15.000 Because she obviously is... Okay, well that answers that question.
00:20:19.000 So I'll ask you a different question in just one second.
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00:21:34.000 OK, so let me ask you about Pete Buttigieg, because he's the one name who's not been mentioned yet.
00:21:38.000 People seem to be overlooking him as a national candidate because he hasn't really had this major surge in the national polling.
00:21:43.000 He's had some surges in state polling, particularly the early states.
00:21:46.000 He has no play among black voters, obviously.
00:21:51.000 He's definitely trying to fix that.
00:21:52.000 But they don't know him.
00:21:54.000 Do you think that's a matter of awareness? 0.72
00:21:55.000 Do you actually think that it is the off-sighted possibility that maybe gay men are not going to work too well for a lot of black voters in the South? 0.71
00:22:03.000 Well, that's half of it. 0.90
00:22:05.000 That is half of it.
00:22:06.000 And that's a conversation that needs to happen in the black community.
00:22:10.000 But he still has not been introduced to the country like he has in Iowa and New Hampshire.
00:22:15.000 They've seen him.
00:22:16.000 I've seen him campaign.
00:22:17.000 In my travels across the country, I've seen all these people do their stump speeches.
00:22:22.000 And Mayor Pete is the quietest of them.
00:22:24.000 He's the most unassuming, the most humble.
00:22:27.000 He stays as long as he has to stay.
00:22:30.000 He has very few applause lines and amazing answers, policy answers, calming answers.
00:22:38.000 He brings people together.
00:22:39.000 We hear that phrase, who's gonna find common ground?
00:22:42.000 He's the definition of common ground.
00:22:45.000 And I watch people as they walk out and they're all blown away by him.
00:22:49.000 He is everyone's second choice, which means that that's why he's doing so well right now in these two states, because he's becoming the first choice.
00:22:57.000 He is the highest ratio of favorable to unfavorable of any of the candidates.
00:23:03.000 And the more you know him, the more you like him.
00:23:06.000 There's very few candidates that have all three of those going for him.
00:23:09.000 So I think he's got a way to go up, even though they're starting to focus on him.
00:23:14.000 But yeah, there is an anti-gay mentality.
00:23:20.000 that still exists within the religious component of the African American community.
00:23:26.000 And it's something that he needs to challenge among them.
00:23:31.000 And I don't know how he does it because it's not who he is.
00:23:34.000 He does not wear it on his sleeve, but he does not hide it either.
00:23:40.000 And that's why of all the early states, the one I'm most interested in is South Carolina.
00:23:46.000 Biggest percentage of black voters.
00:23:48.000 Biggest percentage of religious voters.
00:23:50.000 Iowa's not religious.
00:23:52.000 It's spiritual, but it's not religious.
00:23:54.000 New Hampshire's not religious at all.
00:23:55.000 It's all economic voters.
00:23:58.000 Nevada, you know, it's Vegas and whatever. 0.85
00:24:02.000 South Carolina, we're going to find out what happens in the black churches. 0.98
00:24:05.000 And that's going to be fascinating.
00:24:07.000 So what do you think are the actual odds?
00:24:09.000 You have to make the odds for the Democrats right now.
00:24:11.000 Where would you place people?
00:24:13.000 And I've been all over.
00:24:14.000 There was a time when I thought Harris.
00:24:17.000 We all thought Harris at the very beginning, and then it turns out that she's horrible as a candidate, just awful at what she does. 0.97
00:24:21.000 The worst! 1.00
00:24:22.000 Just sheer garbage as a candidate. 1.00
00:24:24.000 And they're, you know, they're blaming sexism. 1.00
00:24:27.000 They're blaming racism.
00:24:28.000 It's like, well, the racism thing, it's like Barack Obama never existed.
00:24:30.000 And I am amused by watching Cory Booker call his own Democratic Party base racist if they don't put him on the stage, because obviously He's the only other black person in the race.
00:24:39.000 And so now that Kamala's out, he's like, I'm so sad about it.
00:24:41.000 But also cut me a check.
00:24:43.000 Please cut me a check right now.
00:24:44.000 But how about Biden saying that he was supported by the only black female in the U.S.
00:24:50.000 Senate and Harris is up on stage?
00:24:52.000 Yeah.
00:24:53.000 That was very funny.
00:24:54.000 I thought it was I just I laughed for like five minutes after that was done.
00:24:58.000 I think I have to give the highest odds to Senator Warren, and here's why.
00:25:05.000 She's raising among the most, if not the most.
00:25:09.000 Second, she's got the best organization, second to Bernie.
00:25:13.000 Third, she's been at this and she's had a national platform, so she's not going to have A mistake.
00:25:20.000 She may do something wrong, such as being honest about Medicare for All and how much it's going to cost, but she wanted that discussion.
00:25:28.000 That wasn't a mistake.
00:25:29.000 To her, that's about explaining why the rich and corporations need to pay more. 1.00
00:25:35.000 So, she wants that debate. 0.51
00:25:39.000 And I think the Democrats want to nominate a woman.
00:25:41.000 I really do.
00:25:42.000 I think they want to make up for what happened with Trump and Clinton.
00:25:45.000 So I give her number one.
00:25:47.000 I give Joe Biden number two, even though I think he loses both Iowa and New Hampshire, simply because his national numbers are very impressive.
00:25:55.000 His support within the African American community is very strong.
00:25:59.000 And then third would be Mayor Pete.
00:26:01.000 I don't think Bernie Sanders is any shot at the nomination because Elizabeth Warren is taking away his votes and because at some point I'm just expecting him to do what Jim from Taxi did.
00:26:12.000 He just, he doesn't remind me of Larry David, he reminds me of Jim from Taxi.
00:26:16.000 That he's just going to be waving his arms and suddenly he's just going to drop.
00:26:20.000 Bernie Sanders is so old, it takes him an hour and a half to watch 60 Minutes.
00:26:25.000 He's so old, his favorite painting is The Last Supper.
00:26:27.000 If you look carefully, he's the second waiter from the left.
00:26:30.000 Bernie Sanders is so old, the only time he doesn't have to pee is when he's peeing.
00:26:36.000 Come on, crew.
00:26:37.000 Some reaction here.
00:26:39.000 You know all three of Trump's wives are immigrants?
00:26:42.000 All three of them.
00:26:44.000 It's living proof that there are some jobs only an immigrant will take. 1.00
00:26:48.000 Equal opportunity, okay.
00:26:50.000 Yes, I got one more.
00:26:51.000 Okay.
00:26:52.000 So I was at the White House Christmas party.
00:26:53.000 It's interesting, I wasn't invited this year.
00:26:55.000 But I was there last year and I finally got the guts to ask the president, what does the J in Donald J. Trump stand for?
00:27:01.000 You know what he told me?
00:27:02.000 Genius.
00:27:07.000 So let's talk about the genius in the Republican Party right now.
00:27:09.000 So the Republicans have the Senate, they had until recently the House, they have the presidency, they were dominating at the state level, and it seems like all of it is slipping away, and it's slipping away pretty quickly.
00:27:21.000 How much of that is due to Trump personally, and how much of that is just a crisis of identity inside the Republican Party?
00:27:26.000 It feels as though the Republican Party is splitting in a thousand different ways, and that there's no coherent glue holding it together, other than mere Opposition to the left, which is a glue, but it can't be the only glue, I would think.
00:27:38.000 In 2016, they had more governorships, more senators, more congressmen, more state houses, more state senates, more mayors than they'd had in 100 years.
00:27:49.000 There were more elected officials who were identified with the Republican Party than any time in a century.
00:27:57.000 And what did they do with it?
00:27:59.000 Did they reform government?
00:28:01.000 No.
00:28:02.000 Did they transition and transform and transcend Washington's control and influence and send it back to the states?
00:28:11.000 None of that.
00:28:13.000 Did they offer the country a specific vision on health care with a policy to go with it?
00:28:20.000 They could have done anything.
00:28:23.000 And the truth is, they accomplished some things, but not what would have deserved them having as much power as they did.
00:28:32.000 And it'll never come again.
00:28:34.000 And the amazing thing, and the one that I'm most angry about, is that they could have shifted power back to the states and localities.
00:28:41.000 They had the votes to do it in the House and Senate, because they had a whole bunch of Democrats who did not want Trump making those decisions, so they would have done it.
00:28:49.000 You had California Democrats who would have voted with Southern Republicans to take power out of Washington and send it back to the states where it belongs.
00:28:59.000 And they didn't do any of it.
00:29:02.000 And now they're being punished for it.
00:29:03.000 And they have no one to blame but themselves.
00:29:05.000 I do wonder if some of the big kind of Republican talking point items are even doable in today's America.
00:29:12.000 Speaking specifically here of entitlement reform, for example, which was Paul Ryan's bugaboo and he was never able to get anywhere with that.
00:29:18.000 How much of that is because Republicans don't know how to talk about entitlement reform and how much of that is because people actually just do not want to hear entitlement reform and every country that has ever undergone any sort of entitlement reform has been forced to it by austerity measures?
00:29:29.000 Well, look what's going on right now.
00:29:30.000 In France, they are protesting every day and they're shooting tear gas underneath the Arc de Triomphe.
00:29:37.000 In Colombia, I got caught in a protest.
00:29:40.000 Okay, I walked a few blocks to get into it, and then I realized I needed to get out of it.
00:29:45.000 There were over 300,000 people.
00:29:48.000 Demanding that they not reform pensions down there.
00:29:52.000 All across the globe this is happening.
00:29:54.000 Governments 10, 15, 20 years ago gave away way too much.
00:29:58.000 Now they realize they can't afford to pay for it.
00:30:01.000 They're trying to right the ship and voters won't let them.
00:30:06.000 And they even know the damage, but they'll say, hey, I paid for it.
00:30:10.000 I worked for it.
00:30:12.000 I earned it.
00:30:12.000 You take it out of someone else's hide, not mine.
00:30:16.000 And the Democrats are smart in this perspective.
00:30:20.000 They know that once you give a voter a gift, a program, any kind of benefit, they will not let you take it away.
00:30:28.000 No tax is ever temporary, and no program is ever temporary.
00:30:33.000 They make them permanent.
00:30:34.000 And I think the GOP did not understand that.
00:30:37.000 And the only time they could have done it is when they had the White House, the Senate, and the House.
00:30:41.000 And they needed the governorships as well.
00:30:44.000 They had it all.
00:30:45.000 They had everything.
00:30:47.000 And I won't be around that much longer.
00:30:50.000 You have a long time to go.
00:30:52.000 You will look back at the years 2017 and 18 as the greatest loss of opportunity.
00:30:59.000 You may love, in your case you don't love him, but you may like Donald Trump.
00:31:03.000 You may like what conservatism means to the country.
00:31:08.000 But I say to you that the opportunity versus the result will never be greater than those two years, 17 and 18.
00:31:16.000 And they're not coming back again.
00:31:19.000 One of the great debates inside the Republican Party, and this is taking place before Trump but it's been exacerbated and accelerated by Trump, is the debate over which direction to move in the future.
00:31:29.000 So after 2012 there was the famous Republican document from the RNC that came out and said we need to reach out to new demographic groups, and maybe that means shifting policy on things like— And how's that worked out for them?
00:31:40.000 Yeah.
00:31:41.000 As I was about to say, President Trump came back with a different sort of analysis, if you can call it that.
00:31:46.000 But there are certainly people doing this analysis, saying it's easier to win an additional 5% of the white vote than it is to win an additional 15% of the Hispanic vote.
00:31:53.000 And so you double down on what brought you here.
00:31:56.000 And the future of the Republican Party basically lies in immigration restrictionism and economic subsidies and really catering to the white working class, building up those numbers so that it's 2 to 1, 3 to 1.
00:32:08.000 Is that conservatism?
00:32:11.000 I mean, not in my opinion, it's not, but... And I'm a pollster.
00:32:16.000 I'm a communications guy.
00:32:18.000 So I have my own point of view, and nobody cares to hear it.
00:32:21.000 They want to know who's going to win, and they want to know how to win.
00:32:23.000 They don't really want to know my philosophy, but I do question this.
00:32:28.000 My grandparents are immigrants.
00:32:30.000 They came here from Ukraine.
00:32:32.000 I was over in Ukraine, and this is your exclusive.
00:32:35.000 I was in Ukraine while all this stuff was going on, and I had no idea.
00:32:41.000 I was there to do some speeches for the State Department, to talk to students, to talk to elected officials.
00:32:47.000 They were telling me that they were seeking American aid and they weren't getting it.
00:32:52.000 It's fascinating to me because I was hearing stuff that did not make sense and then a couple months later it made sense.
00:32:59.000 We're not hostile to Ukraine.
00:33:03.000 A lot of us consider Ukraine to be allies because they're hostile to the Russians.
00:33:08.000 Why suddenly is Ukraine the enemy? 0.85
00:33:11.000 I'm sorry to those people who say that they tried to intervene in our election, but the Russians tried to intervene in our election, not the Ukrainians.
00:33:20.000 We have to figure out a way to get along with China. 0.98
00:33:23.000 China is an opponent. 0.99
00:33:25.000 They may be an enemy.
00:33:27.000 They don't compete fairly.
00:33:31.000 They manipulate their currency.
00:33:33.000 They steal our intellectual property.
00:33:35.000 And Trump is right, is right to hold them accountable.
00:33:40.000 But shouldn't we be bringing Canada with us?
00:33:43.000 Shouldn't we be getting Germany and Britain and the other countries that trade with them?
00:33:47.000 Shouldn't we align with France and Korea so it's all of us trying to move China? 0.97
00:33:52.000 Why are we trying to do this alone?
00:33:56.000 We see issues with weather right now, and this is the one that they're gonna be all pissed off over.
00:34:02.000 Something is happening.
00:34:05.000 And it's not about heat.
00:34:07.000 It's about the intensity of these storms and the consistency of them.
00:34:13.000 And, unfortunately, the predictability of them.
00:34:17.000 We can't turn a blind eye to it.
00:34:20.000 It's not 60-40 or 70-30 among the scientific community.
00:34:24.000 It's 95-5.
00:34:27.000 And I say this as someone who challenged the science of climate 20 years ago.
00:34:34.000 We've learned a lot in 20 years.
00:34:36.000 I don't want the same equipment that would have operated on my brain 20 years ago operating on me now.
00:34:42.000 Our science gets better.
00:34:44.000 Our knowledge of the economy gets better.
00:34:46.000 Our information gets better.
00:34:47.000 And by the way, I thought to be a conservative meant that you respected and celebrated the work of the CIA or the FBI, that we respected and appreciated the efforts of the police and the first responders, and the idea that we are now trashing our intelligence services.
00:35:08.000 That, to me, I didn't know that that's the side that conservatives are taking.
00:35:15.000 To me, that was always on the left.
00:35:17.000 So tell me, because I don't know.
00:35:20.000 What is conservatism?
00:35:22.000 What side are we on?
00:35:24.000 What do we believe?
00:35:25.000 Because the things that I was raised from Jim and William Buckley and Jean Kirkpatrick and Richard Perle and Ronald Reagan Some of those things don't seem to be conservative today.
00:35:43.000 And so I don't know.
00:35:44.000 So in a second, I want to ask whether you think that's a result of Trump and you think that that's a durable ideological change inside the Republican Party, or do you think that this is just sort of a temporary Trump was the vessel, he defeated Hillary Clinton, and then once Trump is no longer president, then this actually plays out in real time and we get to have that intellectual fight.
00:36:02.000 But first, it's the holiday season.
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00:37:02.000 Before we go on, what is the answer?
00:37:06.000 Is it that we're going to have different definitions of conservatism and we're going to fight it?
00:37:12.000 Is conservatism pro or anti-immigrant or should we not be having this argument?
00:37:18.000 Don't conservatives care about the environment?
00:37:21.000 If we are supporters of tradition and legacy, don't we want to ensure that the air that we breathe and the water that we drink is safe for generation because we believe in delayed gratification?
00:37:35.000 Isn't conservatism about border security and alliances with NATO?
00:37:43.000 And North America?
00:37:46.000 Isn't Canada one of our strongest allies?
00:37:49.000 Should we be fighting with the Canadian Prime Minister?
00:37:52.000 Tell me.
00:37:54.000 You're a smart guy.
00:37:56.000 You tell me, what is conservatism today?
00:37:59.000 I mean, I think that conservatism today is anti-leftism, and that is not enough.
00:38:05.000 And this is a case I've been making consistently for years, is that there was a very famous talk show host, of whom I grew up as a fan, who in 2016 shifted his definition of conservatism.
00:38:15.000 He had the Institute of Advanced Conservative Studies, is what he called it, Rush called it this.
00:38:21.000 And then in 2016, he shifted it to the Institute of Advanced Anti-Left Studies.
00:38:25.000 And I thought that that was a very telling move, because basically what it suggested is that the radicalism of the left was to be opposed, and that the political correctness of the left was to be opposed.
00:38:35.000 And that was pretty much what tied us together.
00:38:38.000 There were no centralized values.
00:38:41.000 But conservatism, I thought, was meant to pull you in.
00:38:44.000 This was the Jim and Bill Buckley philosophy.
00:38:48.000 Which is to show you, okay, it does show you the insanity of the left, but it's to pull you in intellectually to the ideas of the right.
00:38:58.000 I mean, I totally— James Q. Wilson.
00:39:00.000 I totally agree with this.
00:39:01.000 The conservatism was the smart people, the best educated people, the people, yes, who did go to Ivy League schools.
00:39:08.000 But I think, and this is really a question for you, why did conservatives stop making the moral case?
00:39:14.000 Because I think that's really where this broke down.
00:39:15.000 I think that there was a point in my life where the case was made that markets were not moral, that you had to add on top of that, like the very idea of compassionate conservatism was A good pitch, but I remember having problems with it when I was 16 years old because I thought to myself, I don't know why we are being redundant.
00:39:35.000 Because the idea there is obviously that without the modifier, conservatism is not compassionate.
00:39:40.000 But my philosophy was always that that was an oxymoron, that that was a contradiction.
00:39:45.000 That conservatism was about making tough choices.
00:39:49.000 And that the left was about making everything easy.
00:39:51.000 You got a problem?
00:39:52.000 Throw money at it.
00:39:54.000 You're suffering?
00:39:55.000 Here's a check.
00:39:56.000 You lost your house?
00:39:57.000 We're going to take care of it.
00:39:59.000 And to the point where we couldn't afford it.
00:40:01.000 But it was the gift.
00:40:02.000 Liberalism was about a gift.
00:40:04.000 And conservatism was about personal responsibility.
00:40:07.000 So you could be a common sense conservative, but you couldn't be a compassionate conservative.
00:40:12.000 I totally agree with that.
00:40:13.000 I mean, I think that my main objection to the idea was that common sense is not compassion.
00:40:19.000 I mean, the idea of conservatism is that when you make those tough decisions, you're doing something good for people.
00:40:23.000 And that when you cut people a check, very often you're doing something bad for people.
00:40:27.000 What you're actually doing is enervating them and making them unable to support themselves and making them dependent.
00:40:31.000 And so by pitching conservatism as Well, it'll be conservatism, but it'll be nice.
00:40:36.000 It's like, well, you just took the heart right out of what it is you're talking about, and you're setting up an expectation that without the big government spending programs, conservatism is actually just mean and petty and cruel.
00:40:46.000 So there's this idea that's been built up in the conservative movement, you see it manifest right now, that conservatism is about heartless markets.
00:40:53.000 And you see conservatives say this sort of stuff.
00:40:54.000 It's about heartless markets, free markets that are nasty to people, and so we have to curb their application, because we have to chain the markets up and make them work for us, though the markets are not an I don't hear that.
00:41:04.000 Markets are a reflection of a basic individual right to alienate your own labor.
00:41:11.000 They are inherently moral.
00:41:12.000 And the idea that a market is not moral, that you have to curb the market, chain it up, make it work for the people.
00:41:18.000 No, that's socialist language.
00:41:20.000 That is the language of collectivism.
00:41:21.000 Yes, but that is not the language of conservatism.
00:41:23.000 You just described the language of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders.
00:41:26.000 Agreed.
00:41:27.000 But markets on their own are not necessarily compassionate.
00:41:31.000 That we are making a decision as a society, which I believe, and this is where my politics has changed, that there are times when markets don't function correctly.
00:41:41.000 That the free market is not always free and does not always choose the right thing.
00:41:47.000 And that there can be perversions that cause real damage.
00:41:53.000 And that the best form of an ideology is one that admits those cases where it is wrong, and always seeks to improve it.
00:42:01.000 I think it's one of the great things about Western religion, is that it goes through a reformation constantly, as it re-examines its principles, its morals, its values, acknowledges where it got it wrong, and then seeks to fix it.
00:42:16.000 Not through wholesale changes.
00:42:18.000 That's progressivism.
00:42:21.000 But through tinkering at the edges to correct those things that went wrong.
00:42:25.000 There's nothing wrong with that.
00:42:27.000 My issue is twofold.
00:42:29.000 One who believes that markets are evil and those who believe that markets should not be touched.
00:42:35.000 We have become so polarized right now.
00:42:37.000 I'm scared to death of the Wall Street Journal because I know that there is income inequality.
00:42:43.000 I can admit it.
00:42:44.000 There are rich people and there are poor people, and it is not the fault of every poor person, or even a majority of them, that they are poor.
00:42:51.000 They've been denied a decent education, they were denied a decent family, they were denied the same opportunities that we got.
00:42:59.000 You got them and I got them.
00:43:01.000 We were put on the right path.
00:43:03.000 We are responsible for our success or our failure, but we at least got on the right path.
00:43:08.000 What about the 20 or 25% who don't have that opportunity, who get stuck in schools that suck, who are taught by teachers who don't want to be there, that want to get out of class as soon as they can, are taught by teachers who have trouble with the lesson plan itself, and they shouldn't be there.
00:43:25.000 It is not their fault.
00:43:27.000 That they have one parent or no parents.
00:43:30.000 It is not their fault that everything around them teaches them about bad behavior.
00:43:36.000 You can't tell someone to pull themselves up by their bootstraps if they don't own boots.
00:43:42.000 And over the last three or four years, I'm working with kids who are teaching me that.
00:43:47.000 They joke that they're my life coach.
00:43:50.000 But they are teaching me about the 20% that I did not see.
00:43:54.000 And every time I sit with them, I hear about another pathology, another horrible story of what they went through.
00:44:01.000 And it isn't their fault.
00:44:03.000 And markets won't help them.
00:44:05.000 We have to intervene.
00:44:07.000 But...
00:44:09.000 If we destroy economic freedom in this country, we destroy all the greatness of the last 230 years.
00:44:15.000 We can help so many more people individually, personally.
00:44:19.000 I don't want the government raising my taxes.
00:44:21.000 I'm in the top 1%.
00:44:23.000 And every year I give more and more.
00:44:25.000 Every year my percentage goes higher and higher.
00:44:27.000 And I'm giving my time, not just my checks.
00:44:30.000 Don't, government, stop me from doing that.
00:44:33.000 Get out of my way and let me make a difference.
00:44:36.000 But I know I have the responsibility to do it.
00:44:38.000 And I know you do too.
00:44:39.000 I know on this we agree.
00:44:42.000 That's my frustration.
00:44:44.000 There's no one who speaks for me.
00:44:46.000 Well, I mean, I wonder if, again, it's the language of a certain materialist point of view toward government that seems to have taken over.
00:44:56.000 What I mean by that is that the original bargain of the founders was that we would have an extremely limited government that was not capable of doing a great many things in order to protect our rights, and that a government too powerful would have the ability to invade those.
00:45:06.000 But that was balanced by a feeling of duty that we had for one another.
00:45:09.000 And representation.
00:45:11.000 This is not a democracy.
00:45:13.000 And our people aren't even taught that in the government classes.
00:45:17.000 The only direct democracy we have is in New Hampshire.
00:45:20.000 And the other 49 states, it's a republic.
00:45:25.000 And we have to hope that the people represent us well.
00:45:27.000 The problem is, they've now discovered that the more they give away, the more they get elected.
00:45:34.000 And that they forget that half the equation is spending, but the other half is taxation.
00:45:40.000 And it is one of the things I'm angriest about about this administration.
00:45:45.000 Why do we have a deficit and a debt that's out of control?
00:45:49.000 Why are we on the wrong side of the ledger as much as Barack Obama was?
00:45:53.000 More.
00:45:54.000 On a yearly basis, more.
00:45:55.000 And we have the strongest economy now and he had the weakest economy back then?
00:46:00.000 What has happened to personal responsibility, to agency responsibility, to government responsibility?
00:46:07.000 You don't spend what you don't have.
00:46:09.000 And we are just trying to buy people off, the left and the right.
00:46:13.000 That's not conservative.
00:46:14.000 Well, no, this is, I think, what I'm arguing about with regard to materialism.
00:46:19.000 I think that both the right and the left believe that the solution is going to come through some form of government interventionism now.
00:46:25.000 And it seems like that's, I mean, the Republicans are spending as much as the Democrats or more.
00:46:29.000 And the Republicans are not looking to cut programs in any real way.
00:46:33.000 They're looking to maybe trim around the edges, but they're not looking to restore the value of a social fabric in absence of government.
00:46:39.000 Instead, what you hear conversations about are the failures of capitalism, but you never actually hear about the morality of capitalism for the sphere in which it operates.
00:46:46.000 It's not meant to— Don't call it capitalism.
00:46:49.000 Capitalism to too many Americans is Wall Street.
00:46:53.000 I've actually told conservatives stop using the phrase capitalism because it undermines your philosophy.
00:47:04.000 Rush Limbaugh came at me by name saying that I'm a sellout.
00:47:09.000 And I say to him, because I know he watches you, I say to him, if you defend capitalism, you're defending the parts of the economy that the American people resent and they want to vote out of office.
00:47:21.000 But if you defend economic freedom, those are the principles of the founding fathers.
00:47:25.000 Those are the principles that have held this country so strong for so many decades.
00:47:34.000 And it all actually goes back to one issue, which we haven't talked about.
00:47:38.000 It's not been brought up in the democratic debates.
00:47:41.000 No one ever talks about it because we say it's a local issue.
00:47:44.000 And it is at the core, it's at the root of everything that is going wrong.
00:47:49.000 And that is the sorry state of our public schools.
00:47:53.000 If we can't educate, and I've got my staffer here, who insists on using 22 words when 16 will do.
00:48:02.000 Why does he write so much?
00:48:03.000 Because he was told, I need a 700 word essay.
00:48:07.000 Not valuing each word but just trying to get as many words onto a page.
00:48:13.000 We have schools that allow kids to graduate with diplomas they cannot read.
00:48:18.000 That they actually discourage those who are smartest and they bring them down to the average so that no one can excel.
00:48:28.000 I think we are destroying the fabric of this country by allowing our schools to be destroyed.
00:48:34.000 And it's not That I'm anti-public school.
00:48:37.000 I want all of our schools to do well.
00:48:39.000 But I don't care whether it's public or private.
00:48:41.000 I don't care whether it's merit pay, performance pay, or what you call it.
00:48:45.000 Show me another occupation where we pay the best people no better than where we pay the worst.
00:48:50.000 Show me something more important that we value more than our TV sets and our cars.
00:48:56.000 If our car doesn't work, we'll go to the shop, and if they don't fix it the first time, we'll yell at them.
00:49:01.000 Our kids are coming out more damaged than on televisions and our cars and we let it happen.
00:49:07.000 That parents aren't involved in the lives of their kids because they don't have time or they don't know what they're being taught.
00:49:13.000 And that we have principals who cannot ensure that their schools are a safe learning environment.
00:49:18.000 It is a disaster.
00:49:20.000 It is a tragedy.
00:49:21.000 And I am begging these Democratic candidates to talk about it.
00:49:25.000 And nothing has happened.
00:49:26.000 Well, the minute Pete Buttigieg talked about it, he got racked over the coals.
00:49:29.000 I mean, he just got destroyed.
00:49:30.000 Because there's that old audio of him from 2011 talking about pathologies in particular communities.
00:49:36.000 And he wasn't even blaming the kids or even the parents.
00:49:39.000 He was saying people are put in circumstances where they don't have role models who value education.
00:49:44.000 They've never seen anybody work the system and succeed that way, and so why would they buy into it?
00:49:49.000 And he got just destroyed for saying something that was basically true.
00:49:52.000 Not basically.
00:49:54.000 It is true.
00:49:55.000 It is accurate.
00:49:55.000 And someone needs to look at a camera, straighten the eye, and say, if you allow this to happen anymore over the next 10 years, then it is your fault when our kids are speaking Chinese.
00:50:06.000 It is your fault when the Chinese companies are coming in with better technology, better manufacturing, And better capability to out-compete our kids. 1.00
00:50:15.000 I'm going to tell you something.
00:50:17.000 I teach at NYU Abu Dhabi.
00:50:18.000 It's my greatest thrill of my life.
00:50:20.000 I would give up politics.
00:50:22.000 I would give up my corporate work.
00:50:23.000 I care about nothing more than I care about teaching.
00:50:27.000 And NYU Abu Dhabi is the most global education in the world.
00:50:33.000 The highest percentage of any student are Emiratis themselves at 14% and Americans are at 12%.
00:50:39.000 There's no place where you get this mix.
00:50:41.000 Over a hundred countries are represented in the 1,200 students.
00:50:47.000 My Chinese students, I'm going to get yelled at for this too.
00:50:51.000 My Chinese students want to know how to get an A. My Chinese students are lobbying to keep the library open 24 hours a day.
00:50:57.000 My Chinese students are trying to figure out what they need to know, what they need to learn, how they will succeed.
00:51:04.000 And my American students are looking for the bar.
00:51:07.000 They're looking to have a drink and they're looking to have fun.
00:51:10.000 There was a survey that was taken of Chinese mothers and American mothers, what they prioritize for their kids.
00:51:17.000 American moms wanted their kids to be happy. 0.99
00:51:20.000 Chinese kids wanted their children to be educated.
00:51:24.000 Well, the Chinese kids got what they wanted. 0.99
00:51:26.000 The parents got what they wanted.
00:51:27.000 They're kids educated and they're really unhappy.
00:51:30.000 The American kids are really happy and really uneducated. 1.00
00:51:34.000 And if we don't get our act together, then this country will not survive.
00:51:39.000 The yelling and screaming about Donald Trump or Nancy Pelosi or impeachment, that is all irrelevant.
00:51:46.000 If we have a healthy school, a healthy classroom, we can survive anything, because we will produce students who are able to handle the problems of the 21st century.
00:51:57.000 But if we continue to allow our schools to deteriorate, if we continue to fight over charter, if we fight over the teachers' unions... Education is not an employment program.
00:52:10.000 If Teach for America works, let those teachers in there.
00:52:14.000 The unions are fighting to get Teach for America thrown out.
00:52:17.000 Because those young people teach better than the teachers who are 25 years older than them.
00:52:17.000 You know why?
00:52:23.000 Because they care.
00:52:25.000 And they want to spend time with their students.
00:52:28.000 We need institutions like NYU Abu Dhabi who are teaching a global population, global issues, global concerns, global threats.
00:52:38.000 We're going to solve them in America. 0.98
00:52:40.000 And we're going to do good things for the world.
00:52:43.000 But if our kids can't compete with the kids from China, Japan, and Korea, and the other European nations, if we continue to score 20th in language and 30th in math, God knows what we score in science.
00:53:01.000 And we're heading down.
00:53:03.000 So in a second, I want to ask you about—go back to a topic we addressed very briefly originally, and that is, is it possible to sell anybody anything, basically?
00:53:03.000 We really are.
00:53:12.000 Can you sell ice to an Eskimo using the correct language of politics? 0.96
00:53:17.000 But first, you may not know this, I'm a watch guy.
00:53:19.000 And here is a watch that I truly love.
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00:53:37.000 Because here's the thing, the price point is really, really good.
00:53:40.000 With the holidays coming up so fast, you need to head over to VinceroWatches.com forward slash Shapiro, and you can see my favorite picks and use code SHAPIRO at checkout for 15% off your entire order.
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00:53:52.000 So I have this engraved watch.
00:53:54.000 One of the things they do is they'll engrave the back of your watch that says, facts don't care about your feelings.
00:53:57.000 I know.
00:53:58.000 These timepieces make an incredible gift.
00:54:00.000 It is the perfect time to pick up a timepiece for that significant other.
00:54:03.000 In fact, I've done this with my wife.
00:54:04.000 Half my family have Vincero watches at this point.
00:54:06.000 With multiple collections for both men and women, you're bound to find a design that matches their look and style perfectly.
00:54:11.000 They will thank you.
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00:54:14.000 They tell the world what you're all about.
00:54:16.000 They make a statement about who you are.
00:54:17.000 It immediately establishes you as ambitious, smart, successful, without you needing to shout it.
00:54:22.000 Or, you can lie about being all of those things by wearing a Vincero watch.
00:54:25.000 People just get it.
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00:54:27.000 The deal is fantastic.
00:54:28.000 Go to vincerowatches.com/shapiro, that's vincerowatches.com/shapiro, and use code Shapiro to get 15% off.
00:54:37.000 Okay, so let's talk about the use of language in politics, which of course is your specialty.
00:54:43.000 I think people get uncomfortable when we talk about the use of language in politics because, and this is sort of, I think, what Trump may be getting at when he says, "I don't even care, I'm just gonna say what I feel, "and that's my appeal." Do people feel, I certainly can see it, people feel like if the question here is just about using the right words, do the ideas even matter?
00:55:03.000 Are any ideas sellable in America so long as you use the right words?
00:55:06.000 No, it has to be credible.
00:55:08.000 It has to be authentic.
00:55:10.000 People have to feel that you should not be taxed just because you die.
00:55:16.000 That a death tax is not fair to a family that is going through a great tragedy and they have to get their assets in order and they have to figure out what they're going to have to write to their government.
00:55:27.000 We think that if parents are going to sacrifice, their kids should be able to enjoy that sacrifice.
00:55:33.000 It does matter if it's a scholarship.
00:55:36.000 Or a voucher.
00:55:36.000 A voucher is a piece of paper.
00:55:39.000 An opportunity scholarship is a chance for a better future.
00:55:43.000 Even something so simple.
00:55:44.000 We've got water here.
00:55:45.000 Sparkling water.
00:55:48.000 If this is carbonated, it means it's got chemicals.
00:55:51.000 But if this is sparkling, it's a refreshing taste.
00:55:54.000 So yeah, the words do matter.
00:55:57.000 I was criticized for Obamacare because in my research, we called it a government takeover.
00:56:04.000 Now the people who criticized me backed away.
00:56:07.000 Three years later, because people really did lose their doctor, they really did lose their hospital, they did lose their health care plan, it actually was government involvement in health care.
00:56:16.000 There's PolitiFact famously calling it the lie of the year.
00:56:19.000 And then it took three years for them to back away from it, because we saw that what the Republicans had said about it turned out to be true.
00:56:19.000 Yes.
00:56:30.000 That said, Messaging does matter.
00:56:33.000 How you communicate it does matter.
00:56:35.000 Paul Ryan had the most complicated, convoluted defense of his healthcare plan.
00:56:43.000 And we were able to summarize it in 14 words.
00:56:48.000 The choice and control you want, the affordability you need, and the quality you deserve.
00:56:56.000 Simple.
00:56:57.000 And that's what the plan did.
00:57:00.000 But he talked about competition and selling health plans across state lines.
00:57:05.000 It was just unintelligible for most people.
00:57:08.000 So yes, language matters, but you cannot sell ice to Eskimos.
00:57:12.000 And it is not manipulation.
00:57:14.000 You actually have a responsibility to clarify what you mean.
00:57:18.000 You have a responsibility to say what you mean and mean what you say.
00:57:23.000 And that's what I try to help I really stopped doing it.
00:57:26.000 I'm not really involved in much policy anymore and I'm not involved in any campaigns.
00:57:31.000 Because they don't like it.
00:57:33.000 It's 97% negative and I don't want to do it.
00:57:36.000 And I realized this 10 years ago.
00:57:39.000 But it does frustrate me and I cannot look at a political ad without...
00:57:45.000 That woman over there should be 20 years older. 1.00
00:57:47.000 The kid that just came in, too young.
00:57:50.000 We need someone slightly older.
00:57:52.000 Where's the line?
00:57:54.000 My biggest bugaboo about political ads is that they love to film them in kitchens because kitchen table economics or balancing your books at the kitchen.
00:58:03.000 The truth is most people don't use their kitchen table for it.
00:58:06.000 They do it in their den.
00:58:07.000 Second is that all the kitchens I see in these ads have islands.
00:58:12.000 Most of your viewers, do you have an island in your house?
00:58:14.000 We do.
00:58:15.000 Okay, well then you're well off, I can tell.
00:58:18.000 Your jacket is... We have listeners, yeah.
00:58:22.000 Free markets.
00:58:22.000 So you're doing okay.
00:58:23.000 Economic freedom.
00:58:24.000 Economic freedom, not free markets.
00:58:25.000 There it is.
00:58:26.000 Economic freedom.
00:58:27.000 The kitchens are way upper middle class kitchens.
00:58:31.000 And most kitchens aren't like that.
00:58:34.000 So, I still see things.
00:58:37.000 It's not just the words, it's the visuals that they use.
00:58:40.000 And sometimes I get frustrated, but messaging does matter.
00:58:43.000 So, tell me about the focus group method, because it's been much criticized and much praised.
00:58:48.000 What exactly is it, and why does it work?
00:58:52.000 You learn from people by asking them questions, which is what you do here.
00:58:57.000 I wonder what percentage of your guests ask you questions back again.
00:59:01.000 Because that's what this is about, is asking the viewer what you think, what you know, what you believe, what you're afraid of, what you want the most.
00:59:10.000 How can I inspire you to do more, give more, be more involved in helping others?
00:59:17.000 It is awesome because it allows you to explain in your words, not mine, what matters most.
00:59:24.000 It's why I learned about the word imagine.
00:59:27.000 Most powerful word in the English language.
00:59:29.000 When you ask people to imagine a better America, you would say what?
00:59:35.000 One where I'm free to do what I want with my life and not be bothered with my children.
00:59:39.000 So you won't be able to hear him off microphone, but I'm asking you, camera guy, if you were to imagine a better America, what do you think of?
00:59:50.000 Or what do you see?
00:59:52.000 And I'll repeat it.
00:59:52.000 More unifying.
00:59:56.000 So he says unifying, but he does something which is even more important.
00:59:59.000 He does this, brings his hands together.
01:00:02.000 That's showing that not only is he thinking it, but he's actually feeling it.
01:00:06.000 And one more.
01:00:07.000 What do you think?
01:00:07.000 More opportunity.
01:00:11.000 More opportunity for what?
01:00:12.000 For industry.
01:00:18.000 For industry.
01:00:20.000 Wow.
01:00:22.000 A pro-corporatist over there.
01:00:24.000 Well, he knows where he's working.
01:00:26.000 Very smart.
01:00:28.000 There are, say, ten people in this set.
01:00:33.000 Every one of them has a different definition of it, but every one is correct. 0.66
01:00:38.000 That's what a focus group does.
01:00:39.000 It explains this.
01:00:41.000 It allowed me to understand the importance of efficient, effective, accountable government.
01:00:48.000 Not small government.
01:00:49.000 Not limited government.
01:00:51.000 But a government that's more for less.
01:00:53.000 A government that only does what it does well, and a government that's held responsible if it doesn't deliver.
01:00:58.000 That's efficient, effective, and accountable.
01:01:01.000 Something that's meaningful and measurable.
01:01:03.000 They taught me that through focus groups.
01:01:05.000 So much of my language comes from asking questions and listening to the responses, rather than just putting it out on a very dry survey where you have five or seven or nine different choices.
01:01:17.000 The focus group allows you to go wherever you want to go, and it also shows me intensity and passion.
01:01:23.000 And that's what's frightening to me right now.
01:01:25.000 When I used to moderate these, people would be expressive, but they knew when to stop.
01:01:33.000 The groups I've done over the last three or four years, the one I did for CBS News two nights before the election in 2016, if you go back to the video, because they kept it in, I walked off the set.
01:01:45.000 Again, I'll give you something I never told anyone.
01:01:47.000 I quit that night.
01:01:50.000 We were two days before the election.
01:01:51.000 I was livid at these people because they were just shouting at each other, yelling at each other.
01:01:56.000 You could barely hear it.
01:01:58.000 In fact, the sound guys said at one moment it went into the red.
01:02:02.000 It actually was distorted.
01:02:03.000 And you hear it happen.
01:02:05.000 And I'm telling them, stop!
01:02:07.000 And they won't stop.
01:02:08.000 And I just walked off.
01:02:09.000 And I told the executive producer at the time, I quit.
01:02:13.000 This is what you all have created.
01:02:15.000 This is what Clinton and Trump and the media have created in the American psyche.
01:02:21.000 You go live with it.
01:02:22.000 I'm going to New Zealand.
01:02:24.000 And he said to me, I can't use bad language, but he said to me, get the hell back in there.
01:02:29.000 Stop complaining and do your job.
01:02:31.000 We put a lot of money to put these cameras here. 1.00
01:02:34.000 Do your damn job. 1.00
01:02:35.000 Get in there. 1.00
01:02:37.000 And I thought to myself, wow, you're a really mean guy.
01:02:40.000 He's my boss, so I have to do it.
01:02:46.000 And I went back in and finished it.
01:02:48.000 But they kept it in the tape.
01:02:50.000 So, in one second, I want to ask you something more fun.
01:02:53.000 And that is, you're apparently, I've been told by many people, you have a very nice house, and you have an enormous amount of historical memorabilia.
01:03:01.000 So I want to ask you what your favorite piece of American memorabilia you have is.
01:03:05.000 But first, if you want to hear Frank Lentz's answer, you have to be a Daily Wire subscriber.
01:03:08.000 If you want to subscribe, head on over to dailywire.com, click on that subscribe button, you can hear the end of our conversation over there.
01:03:14.000 Frank Lentz, thank you so much for stopping by.
01:03:16.000 I really appreciate it.
01:03:17.000 Frank Lentz, political commentator, pollster.
01:03:19.000 He's got a bunch of New York Times bestselling books as well.
01:03:19.000 Check him out.
01:03:22.000 Frank, really appreciate your time.
01:03:23.000 Thank you.
01:03:23.000 Got it.
01:03:24.000 Got it.
01:03:36.000 Executive producer, Jeremy Boring.
01:03:37.000 Associate producer, Colton Haas.
01:03:40.000 Our guests are booked by Caitlin Maynard.
01:03:41.000 Post-production is supervised by Alex Zingaro.
01:03:44.000 Editing by Donovan Fowler.
01:03:46.000 Audio is mixed by Mike Karamina.
01:03:48.000 Hair and makeup is by Jesua Olvera.
01:03:50.000 Title graphics by Cynthia Angulo.
01:03:52.000 The Ben Shapiro Show Sunday Special is a Daily Wire production.