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00:00:48.000So hopefully we are going to start to see this flatten out rather than escalate, although the model suggests that this thing is going to escalate rather wildly up until mid-April.
00:00:57.000Particularly the University of Washington model suggests that April 15th, and they've now related to April 16th, we'll see upwards of 2,260 deaths in the United States from coronavirus.
00:01:08.000But it is these models that are exactly the question.
00:01:10.000We don't know how accurate the models are.
00:01:12.000We don't know what sort of data goes into them.
00:01:14.000We're not sure exactly why the data that comes out of them comes out of them.
00:01:18.000Are they based on bad information from China?
00:01:32.000There are just so many variables in these equations.
00:01:34.000And that's not the fault of the people who do the modeling.
00:01:36.000The biggest problem here, of course, is that we have to rely on models that have extraordinary play in the joints in order to determine whether we ought to shut down the entire world economy for an undetermined period of time.
00:01:47.000And also, these models have yet to recommend what exactly happens at the end of the model.
00:01:51.000So, for example, the University of Washington model.
00:01:54.000The University of Washington model that everybody is citing, that model ends at approximately August.
00:01:59.000So right now, that University of Washington model, that one is suggesting that we are going to be at about 93,000 deaths by the end of August, somewhere in that neighborhood.
00:02:44.000So right now, if you look at that model, and this is the one that has been the most cited, this health model from the University of Washington.
00:02:51.000The organization is called the Institute for – I want to make sure I get this right – the Institute for Health Metricton Evaluation, the IHME, which is an independent population health research center at University of Washington, right?
00:03:09.000Right now, they are suggesting that the peak will happen on April 15th.
00:03:15.000And they are suggesting that on that day, there will be 263,000 beds needed in the United States.
00:03:20.000There will be a bed shortage across the United States of some 88,000 beds.
00:03:23.000They're suggesting there will be some 39,727 ICU beds needed on that day as opposed to About 20,000 available, and therefore there will be a shortage of nearly 20,000 beds, and they say there will be 31,782 ventilators needed.
00:03:37.000Now, those numbers, when it sounds like a very odd number, that's the sort of exactitude that no model can actually predict.
00:03:43.000It could be off by 100, it could be off by 200, it could be off by a ton.
00:03:47.000And in fact, if you look at their charts, what you see is these huge ranges of possibilities.
00:03:52.000There's a low wave possibility, there's a high range possibility.
00:03:55.000Right now, they are suggesting that the number of deaths per day, like, if we look at the stats, their stats have basically been, I would say, close to reality so far, although not exactly on.
00:04:10.000They're constantly readjusting their models.
00:04:11.000So, they suggested that yesterday, which was April 2nd, that there would be 1,036 deaths.
00:04:17.000We saw that there were 968 deaths, right?
00:04:21.000They're off, but how much they're off?
00:04:32.000All the way up to about 2,600 deaths on April 16th, which would be the peak, right?
00:04:37.000April 15th, April 16th, that would be the peak, and then it would start to decline.
00:04:40.000They're predicting that by June, basically June 1st, you'll see about 200 deaths per day.
00:04:45.000And that will go all the way down to approximately 30, 20 at the end of June.
00:04:50.000So the end of June is when they're really predicting that this thing is going to stop.
00:04:53.000They believe that even by May 1st, we are still going to be having northwards of 1,500 deaths per day.
00:05:01.000But there are serious questions as to exactly how well these models are going to predict things.
00:05:06.000Because they're really using New York as sort of the basis for everything.
00:05:09.000They're suggesting that the New York model, that's going to be the model for a lot of the big cities around the country.
00:05:14.000And we've actually not seen those sorts of numbers coming out of Los Angeles.
00:05:17.000Now, the model does adjust for differences in area.
00:05:21.000So if you look at California, for example, the IMHE model suggests a lot less death in California than in New York, right?
00:05:30.000They think that because California acted early and because it's been spreading here slower and because we're not all on top of each other the way people are on New York, that, for example, by April 26, they think the peak resource use in California is gonna be a little delayed.
00:05:41.000By April 26, there'll be 12,421 beds needed, but there will be beds available and there will be no bed shortage.
00:05:48.000They suggest that in California there will be 1,866 ICU beds needed and zero bed shortage, and that there will be a total of 1,493 ventilators needed.
00:05:57.000That's a big difference from New York City.
00:06:09.000I mean, I'm not going to say they're wildly off, but there's so much play in the joints and so much that we don't even know about the virus yet.
00:06:14.000I mean, we're still finding out whether the virus is airborne or whether it actually requires droplets in order to spread.
00:06:19.000So because of all of that uncertainty, This does raise the question of how are we going to know if what we did was successful or not?
00:06:25.000In strict statistical terms, how are we going to know if what we did was successful?
00:06:29.000Because there are countervailing concerns.
00:06:31.000Now, normally, in a medical setting, it is easy to tell what was successful and what was not, right?
00:06:35.000If somebody dies, you were unsuccessful.
00:06:36.000If somebody lives, then you were successful.
00:06:38.000But in terms of what if the countervailing policy requires the destruction of 20 million jobs, which is now what economists are suggesting, that we're going to see 20 million lost jobs by April 12th, which is about the time when the United States is going to peak here.
00:06:51.000How many deaths, forestalled, and not even prevented, forestalled, right?
00:06:55.000Because we don't know what happens in the second wave.
00:06:56.000Again, this model only goes till August.
00:06:59.000How many deaths forestalled is worth losing 20 million jobs?
00:07:03.000Because there will be attendant poverty and death and depression and mental health issues and all sorts of problems on the other end.
00:07:10.000That's not to suggest that what we're doing right now is wrong.
00:07:13.000It's to suggest that we have yet to hear any of the public health experts actually weigh in on how many deaths are likely to be prevented by the policy over the course of a year.
00:07:22.000We kind of know how many deaths might be prevented over the course of the next three, four months if we do this right.
00:07:27.000Because if we don't do it right, then you end up with 500,000 deaths as opposed to 100,000 deaths.
00:07:31.000You end up with a million deaths as opposed to 100,000 deaths.
00:07:33.000But I've yet to hear any of the public health officials suggest that they have any idea what's going to come in September.
00:07:38.000And the answer is they don't really know what's going to come in September.
00:07:40.000They don't know whether this thing is going to die off in the summer.
00:07:42.000There's just too much we don't know at this point.
00:07:44.000So one of the questions becomes, When you have this level of uncertainty, what is the best policy?
00:07:50.000In case of uncertainty, do you lock everything down indefinitely?
00:07:53.000And when does indefinitely come to an end?
00:07:55.000Because if you lock everything down indefinitely, then the costs are being made manifest every single day.
00:08:02.000And when I say unprovable, what I mean is that there is no way to verify how many lives are actually being saved because you can't see the countervailing statistic, right?
00:08:13.000If we all went out and we did moderate social distancing, for example, all the young people went back to everybody over the age of 60 stayed home.
00:08:18.000Everybody under the age of 60 was wearing a mask and social distancing.
00:08:21.000We don't actually know what that looks like because it's not happening.
00:08:23.000We know what's happening now and we know what that looks like, but we don't know what would happen if we did the other thing, right?
00:08:28.000This is one of the problems with trying to project this stuff into the future.
00:08:30.000And so with all these variables, what would be nice is if somebody from the public health profession would suggest We have a general idea of how many deaths are going to be saved or prevented over the course of the next year, including with the second wave, including with people going back out and engaging in moderate social distancing over the course of the next year, because you know for sure that the levels of death are going to lower if you lock everybody in their house for the next three months.
00:08:54.000For the next three months, they will lower, but you just don't know what's going to happen after that.
00:08:56.000The reason I bring all of this up is because there are serious questions that have to be asked right now, and especially for the next couple of weeks.
00:09:02.000I think everybody's on board for the next two weeks, probably, with the massive sort of lockdown that's taking place across the country.
00:09:10.000But as time progresses, as we are seeing from Europe, things get worse.
00:09:31.000I don't blame you that that's normally your job.
00:09:33.000But I need to hear what exactly this looks like on the other end, if the economy tanks.
00:09:37.000I need to hear a mixture of policy prescriptions from people who are on the economic side and people who are on the public health side.
00:09:44.000I'm fully with you on prioritizing public health.
00:09:47.000But I've not even heard a metric of success yet.
00:09:50.000What if the countervailing stat is that 200,000 people would die if we did the moderate social distancing, but 120,000 people would die over the course of the next year if we didn't do, if we locked everybody up?
00:10:03.000Then the question becomes, okay, 80,000 lives lost in order to save 20 million jobs and, you know, maybe on the other end, another 20,000, 30,000 suicides, maybe people falling into depression, right?
00:10:18.000I'm saying that if we're supposed to hear from the experts, then it would be nice to hear from the experts.
00:10:21.000Instead, we're sort of getting a black box here in terms of all of the countervailing concerns.
00:10:26.000I'm not the only one asking this question.
00:10:27.000The Washington Post is asking this question today, and we're going to get to that in just one second.
00:10:31.000First, Let's talk about the fact that you're spending an awful lot of time on the internet right now.
00:10:36.000You're not going to run out of TV shows, and you're going to not run out of time in the next month because you're going to be locked up in your house.
00:10:42.000So, you're going to be using the internet an awful lot, and that means that this is like a hacker's paradise.
00:10:46.000If you're a hacker, right now is like your dream time.
00:10:48.000You just get to steal everybody's credit card number unless they are using ExpressVPN.
00:10:52.000ExpressVPN protects your privacy and security.
00:10:54.000Here is something that you might not know.
00:10:56.000You can also use ExpressVPN to even unlock movies and shows that are only available in other countries.
00:11:00.000This is not committing fraud or committing a crime or anything.
00:11:03.000It's just that if you don't know, if the sites don't know where you are, then they can't actually lock you down by location.
00:11:09.000You could use this whole week to use ExpressVPN to binge Doctor Who on UK Netflix if you actually want to do.
00:12:08.000So as I say, The problem with the modeling is that modeling is inherently uncertain.
00:12:12.000And you heard this from Dr. Fauci, you heard this from Dr. Birx, but if modeling is all that we have to base our response on, then the question is going to be at what point do the models suggest that we can go back to work?
00:12:21.000At what point do the models suggest that the amounts of death that are going to be prevented over the course of the next year, not the next three months, over the course of the next year are worthy of shutting down the entire world economy and shutting down the American economy to the tune of tens of millions of lost jobs and millions of lives wrecked?
00:12:40.000But it also may very well be true that if you are a small business owner who piled all your savings into starting a restaurant and that restaurant just went away forever, okay, that is a life that has been wrecked.
00:12:51.000If you are a person who had some savings, and now you've lost your job, and the stock market has been hit, and you're forced to liquidate your stock in order to pay your bills, and the government response ain't coming for months.
00:13:02.000And to pretend that quality of life doesn't matter, that the only thing that matters Are these sorts of projections is wrong.
00:13:08.000Again, for the fourth time, I'm not calling for people to stop social distancing.
00:13:12.000I'm the one who's been pushing hardest for social distancing.
00:13:15.000I've been calling for social distancing since early March, just like everybody else when it became apparent that this crisis was actually a crisis.
00:13:20.000But I have not yet heard from experts sufficient to tell me what the metrics of success look like.
00:13:28.000If you were running a business, you wouldn't accept this sort of Compromise.
00:13:32.000If you were running a business, you wouldn't accept people coming in and saying, we can forestall you hundreds of millions of dollars worth of savings.
00:13:58.000You hear from some people this will be over by June 1st.
00:13:59.000You hear from some people this will be over by May 1st.
00:14:01.000And maybe this is me railing against the sky because nobody actually has the data.
00:14:04.000Maybe this is we just have to take our best guess and wing it.
00:14:07.000And again, I'm willing to do that for a set period of time.
00:14:10.000I'm not willing to do that indefinitely.
00:14:11.000And I don't think anyone is willing to do that indefinitely.
00:14:14.000I do not think that anyone is willing to lock themselves in their house until June 1st based on models that do not even tell us what happens after August 1st.
00:14:23.000Again, the IMHG model can be completely right, and it still tells us nothing about what happened September 1, which I find that hard to believe, but it is true.
00:14:35.000Maybe, again, we don't have information about what happens after that.
00:14:37.000What happens when there is no herd immunity and there is no vaccine?
00:14:42.000There's just not enough information out there, which is why every day that people are looking for a vaccine becomes more and more vital, because bottom line is, without any sort of mitigating effects, without any sort of drugs that can mitigate the effects of this, without a buildup in ICU capacity or ventilator capacity, what exactly are we gaining here?
00:14:56.000This is the point that I've been making all along.
00:14:58.000All we are doing is buying time for you not to get the virus.
00:15:01.000We are not buying time for you to never get the virus.
00:15:03.000We are buying time for you to not get the virus.
00:15:04.000So the question is, what happens on the other side when you do get the virus?
00:15:07.000Because the chances are very strong that in the fall, everybody is going to get the virus because we're going to be out and about and doing the things that we like to do.
00:15:14.000And even with the masks, the chances are pretty strong that I just can't imagine the American people walking around in October, seven months from now, wearing masks in public.
00:15:22.000I just don't think that the United States is not built for that.
00:15:25.000It's not the same thing as other cultures.
00:15:27.000That may be for good and it may be for bad.
00:15:29.000And I'm not the only person asking this question.
00:15:30.000The Washington Post has a piece today That says, experts and Trump's advisors doubt White House's 240,000 coronavirus deaths estimate.
00:15:38.000According to William Wan, Josh Dowsey, Ashley Parker, and Joel Akenbach, leading disease forecasters, whose research the White House used to conclude 100,000 to 240,000 people will die nationwide from the coronavirus, were mystified when they saw the administration's projection this week.
00:15:52.000The experts said they don't challenge the number's validity, but they have no idea how the White House arrived at them.
00:15:57.000How do you not challenge the validity, but you have no idea how they arrived at them?
00:16:00.000That's basically them saying we don't know what the hell anybody's talking about.
00:16:03.000White House officials have refused to explain how they generated the figure.
00:16:06.000They have not provided the underlying data so others can assess its reliability or provided long-term strategies to lower the death count.
00:16:12.000Some of President Trump's advisors have expressed doubts about the estimate, according to three White House officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
00:16:18.000There have been fierce debates inside the White House about its accuracy.
00:16:21.000At a task force meeting this week, Anthony Fauci told others there are too many variables at play in the pandemic to make the models reliable.
00:16:28.000He said, I've looked at all the models.
00:16:29.000I've spent a lot of time on the models.
00:17:10.000And the metric of success cannot be, you know, Governor Andrew Cuomo going out there and saying things like, the metric of success is have we saved one life?
00:17:36.000None of these questions have really been asked.
00:17:39.000Robert Redfield, the director for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the VP's office, have all similarly voiced doubts about the projection's accuracy.
00:17:46.000Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University epidemiologist whose models were cited by the White House, said his own work on the pandemic doesn't go far enough into the future to make predictions akin to the White House fatality forecast.
00:17:55.000So the models are only for the next few months.
00:17:57.000He says, we don't have a sense of what's going on in the here and now.
00:17:59.000We don't know what people will do in the future.
00:18:00.000We don't know if the virus is seasonal.
00:18:03.000The estimate apparently was a rushed affair according to Mark Lipsitch, a leading epidemiologist and director for the Harvard University Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics.
00:18:12.000They asked for answers and feedback by Thursday.
00:18:14.000So they gave us 24 hours and so we gave them a number.
00:18:17.000Other experts noted the White House didn't even explain the time period the death estimate supposedly captures.
00:18:22.000Is that just the few months or the year plus it will take to deploy a vaccine?
00:18:26.000Everything was presented on basically a single slide.
00:18:29.000Among epidemiologists, the estimates raise more questions than an answer, not just about methodology and accuracy, but also about purpose.
00:18:35.000The primary goal of such models usually is to allow authorities to game out scenarios, foresee challenges, create coherent long-term strategy.
00:18:42.000Shaman said, I wish there were more of a concerted national plan.
00:18:44.000I wish it had started a month and a half ago, maybe two months ago.
00:18:47.000Natalie Dean, by the way, worth noting, back as of mid-February, Dr. Fauci was out there publicly saying that he didn't think that the risk of mass infection in the United States was high.
00:18:56.000Natalie Dean, a biostatistician who is not involved in the White House effort, but is working on coronavirus vaccine evaluation with the WHO, says the whole reason you create models is to help you make decisions, but you have to actually act on those projections and answers.
00:19:09.000Yes, but we are acting and we still don't know what the hell's in the models.
00:19:12.000I mean, like, we have no idea what exactly these models look like.
00:19:15.000Deborah Burke said the projection was based on five or six modelers, including from Imperial College in Britain, Harvard, Columbia, and Northeastern Universities.
00:19:22.000But two models appear to have been particularly influential.
00:19:24.000One was the Imperial College model that we've talked about before, which now suggests south of 20,000 deaths in the UK thanks to strict social distancing.
00:19:31.000And even that, it's unclear from that model, do they mean like social distancing and staying at home for a year?
00:19:36.000Because then it's not 20,000, then it's higher than 20,000.
00:19:39.000In the United States, the one that we've been using is that IMHE model that I was talking about.
00:19:43.000Apparently, Burke said that her task force initially reviewed the work of 12 models, then went back to the drawing board for a week or two, and worked from the ground up utilizing actual reporting of cases.
00:19:52.000It's the way we built HIV models, TB models, malaria models.
00:19:54.000When we finished, the other group that was working in parallel, which we didn't know about, the IMHE model, gave its own estimate.
00:20:00.000They initially estimated deaths throughout the summer would total 38,000 to 162,000, which is a lower projection than many others and actually beneath the White House's own estimate.
00:20:09.000But because of the lower figures, experts believe it was a main source for the White House's best case scenario of 100,000 to 240,000 deaths.
00:20:16.000Meanwhile, the White House was appearing to rely on Imperial College for its worst case scenario, which estimated as many as 2.2 million U.S.
00:20:22.000deaths if no action were taken, 1.1 million deaths if moderate mitigation strategies were adopted, and an unspecified number if drastic measures were taken.
00:20:30.000Well, unspecified number would be the big question right now.
00:20:32.000Like, that is the big question, is it not?
00:21:05.000If the White House's projection covers only the next few months, like the IMHE model does, the true death toll will almost certainly be larger because the U.S.
00:21:11.000will probably see additional waves of COVID-19 until a vaccine is deployed.
00:21:17.000The IMHE was not based on what is usually called the Susceptible Infectious Recovered Model, which is a mathematical way to represent three different populations in an outbreak.
00:21:24.000People vulnerable to infection, people who are infectious, and people who are gradually removed either by death or recovery.
00:21:31.000It's a statistical model that takes the trending curves of death from China, for example, and fits that curve to emerging death data from cities and counties to predict what comes next.
00:21:39.000It's a valuable tool, but it's inherently optimistic because it assumes all states respond as swiftly as China, says a biostatistician at University of Florida.
00:21:47.000In an earlier interview this month, the head of the IMHE group, Christopher Murray, said his model was created for a different purpose from Imperial College.
00:21:52.000He said, we created our model to help hospitals plan how many beds they would need.
00:21:56.000The purpose of Imperial's model is to make people realize that government intervention is crucial, and what would happen without that?
00:22:01.000Okay, so, bottom line is, nobody knows a damn thing.
00:22:27.000Okay, so the question is going to be, when do we know enough to say people have to start getting back to work?
00:22:32.000When do we start to say that the least vulnerable members of our population should be going to work right now with the social distancing and with the masks?
00:23:04.000But I want to know what the second wave looks like.
00:23:06.000Because if they are predicting that everybody is gonna get this by the end of the year, basically, And they're not making that prediction available to the public because they know that if they tell us we're all going to get infected by the end of the year, we're going to go out right now.
00:23:19.000And if, in fact, there is such a thing as herd immunity, and if, in fact, what we're doing is lowering the curve but not lowering the number of deaths over time because, for example, we actually don't have ICU capacity or ventilator capacity and we're not going to ramp those up strongly enough, Then we have to consider what exactly are the costs and rewards of particular policies.
00:23:36.000What happens if we start going back to work?
00:24:01.000And so, what would be great is if we could see some epidemiologists discuss, you know, like a realistic scenario where we're not locked in our houses for the next year, and where time doesn't end on August 1st.
00:24:12.000I would like to know these things, because one of two things is true.
00:24:15.000Either the deaths end August 1st, in which case we're doing all the right things here, we're locking it down, everything's great, or the deaths do not end on August 1st, and there is a massive second wave, in which case, what are we doing now?
00:24:28.000And also, there's a third case scenario where we've locked it down to the point where there's a mild wave, a second wave.
00:24:32.000But have you heard anything about a second wave?
00:24:35.000Have you heard anything about what happens when we go back to work?
00:24:37.000Have you heard anything about what happens when we reopen the economy?
00:24:40.000Have you heard anything about the cost of this thing?
00:24:43.000Epidemiologists are going to need to do better.
00:24:45.000As time goes on, people are going to demand answers, and they deserve those answers.
00:24:48.000We're gonna get to more of this in just one second.
00:24:50.000First, let's talk about the fact that government is using its power to do basically whatever it wants right now.
00:24:58.000And the fact is that sometimes that is justified, but there are certain areas where it is completely unjustified.
00:25:03.000We've seen people with tyrannical instincts doing ridiculous things in certain areas of the country.
00:25:09.000County Sheriff actually tried to shut down all gun shops in the county, calling them non-essential businesses, at a time when they were releasing criminals from jail.
00:25:16.000Literally releasing criminals from jail.
00:25:18.000Okay, well this might be a reason why you should have a weapon.
00:25:21.000Okay, one of the reasons why you have a gun is to protect yourself, to protect your family, to protect your property from the predations of others.
00:25:26.000And sometimes the government wants to stop you from doing that.
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00:25:40.000The people at BCM assume that when a rifle leaves their shop, it will be used in a life-or-death situation by a responsible citizen, law enforcement officer, or a soldier overseas.
00:25:48.000Every component of a BCM rifle is hand-assembled and tested to a life-saving standard.
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00:26:22.000Learn more about Bravo Company Manufacturing.
00:28:02.000So that's when you end up with like 90,000 deaths in the United States.
00:28:05.000Right, if we're on the same model, and we end up with 300 deaths per million of the population in Italy or in Spain, and we are on the same curve, then we would be looking at 300 deaths per million, so 300 times 330, and you end up with 99,000 deaths, so 100,000 deaths.
00:28:21.000If we are not Italy or Spain, if we contain this better than Italy and Spain, and if Italy and Spain don't experience a second wave and it's too early to determine whether they will experience a second wave when they let people out of lockdown, then we are not going to end up with anywhere near those kinds of deaths.
00:28:36.000Right, if we end up in the neighborhood of a France, which right now has 83 and maybe ends up at 100 or 120 deaths per million population, then you're looking at one third of that.
00:28:48.000Right, so all of this depends on what we do now, which is why we should lock down for now.
00:28:52.000But again, we need to know where this is going in the future because the costs that are being incurred in real time are grave, they are serious, and people who are taking them lightly and suggesting that you can't even ask questions like this because otherwise you're undermining the credibility of the program, Like, I don't know what world they are living in.
00:30:23.000And some people are saying that's an excuse for us never to take any action but to stay at home.
00:30:27.000What I'm saying is when the costs are being racked up in real time, you better damn well come up with the data fast or people are just going to start ignoring you.
00:30:34.000Like, either the estimates roll in, and they happen to be particularly accurate, and there are new estimates made as to what happens after we all go back to work, or people are just gonna go back to work.
00:30:44.000Because that is the way that human beings operate.
00:30:47.000Right now, according to Reuters, the economic crisis spawned by the coronavirus pandemic has produced a wave of grim U.S.
00:30:52.000data, with likely more to come as millions lose jobs, businesses shutter, and spending stops.
00:30:57.000At some point, the bottom will be reached.
00:30:58.000Given how fast the situation has developed, judging when that happens in real time will prove challenging for economists, who usually depend on monthly, quarterly, or yearly trends in data to judge the state of the business cycle.
00:31:07.000A coronavirus outbreak is not a business cycle event.
00:31:10.000Perhaps it's a once-in-a-century health crisis, where normal choices about where to go and what to spend are influenced.
00:31:15.000By a combination of fear and government edict.
00:31:18.000But it's unclear exactly how bad this is going to get.
00:31:21.000Apparently, the estimates are now suggesting that we are going to end up with like 20 million lost jobs by April 12th.
00:31:28.000Okay, in a second, we are going to get to the White House recommendations, where we go from here.
00:31:34.000And again, it seems like everybody is focused on what we do today, and that's fine.
00:31:50.000But, they had, honest to God, they had better start setting some actual estimates as to how many people are going to die a year out before we have the vaccine developed.
00:32:00.000If we stay in, if we do not stay in, we need to start making some serious data-driven choices here.
00:32:07.000Not simply, things are bad, stay home.
00:32:23.000They're talking about total government control of economies in Europe.
00:32:27.000There's massive rioting in southern Italy right now because supply chains have been broken and because the government has locked everything down.
00:33:10.000Okay, operating on the basis of incomplete data with real-time costs, that is a thing we are doing right now, and let's not pretend they're not real-time costs or that it's bad to recommend the real-time costs, okay?
00:33:18.000In just a second, we're gonna get to what the White House is recommending at this time, and we're gonna talk about a couple of just botched media hits.
00:33:26.000I mean, really, botched media hits on the Trump administration.
00:33:30.000By the way, one of the reasons that I'm sounding the alarm with regard to the economy is because, despite all the talk of the government response being just wonderful and tremendous, there's a report out today that some people could wait 20 weeks to receive checks.
00:34:18.000Okay, as government proves itself incompetent on virtually every level except punishing you when you go outside, there's going to be a lot of blowback from this.
00:34:25.000Again, good for people for paying attention to the orders right now.
00:34:29.000Do I think that this is going to maintain till May with no money in the mail and the food banks running out of food?
00:34:34.000And nobody having the money to give enough charity to sustain the food banks as the government forcibly shuts down an entire economy?
00:34:49.000Well, it is that glorious time of the week when I give a shout out to a Daily Wire subscriber.
00:34:52.000Today, it is Atlas Dynamics on Instagram who appreciates perfection when they see it and sets the record straight on Norway.
00:34:57.000In this picture, Atlas has the world's greatest beverage vessel sitting next to their computer displaying the blueprints of what appears to be a knife design they're working on.
00:35:04.000The post caption reads, can't deny the awesomeness of this legendary Tumblr.
00:35:09.000Enjoying homeschool office with my brand spanking new ultimate drinking vessel and working through my exam day by day.
00:35:14.000Thank you so much Real Daily Wire and official Ben Shapiro for keeping my day awesome in not socialist Norway.
00:35:29.000Also, if you have not yet had a chance to see some of our new content called All Access Live, you should head over to dailywire.com and check it out.
00:35:35.000Jeremy Boring and I kicked it off a few weeks ago.
00:35:37.000All of our other hosts have done live streams over at dailywire.com.
00:35:40.000We'll continue all this week at 8pm Eastern, 5pm Pacific.
00:35:44.000All Access Live is a lot more relaxed than our normal programming.
00:35:46.000It's less focused on bringing you news and information, more about hanging out with you at the end of a long day since we're all isolated anyway.
00:35:51.000The show is intended for All Access members long term, but for now, we're opening up to all of our members because you're part of the community.
00:35:57.000Please let us know what you think of it.
00:36:02.000You're listening to the largest, fastest growing conservative podcast and radio show in the nation.
00:36:06.000Now, when I say that this is unsustainable, one of the reasons is unsustainable is because the experts have to actually be experts in order for the experts to have legitimacy for us to take their expertise seriously.
00:36:32.000I'm not saying don't pay attention to the experts.
00:36:34.000I'm saying we need better information from the experts.
00:36:36.000Five seconds ago, they were telling us that masks don't work.
00:36:38.000Now Dr. Oz is on TV telling us that we ought to wear masks over our face.
00:36:42.000Not just like N95 masks, which are unavailable generally.
00:36:45.000Not just surgical masks, which at least prevent you from breathing out.
00:36:49.000He's telling you should wear bandanas.
00:36:50.000Okay, five seconds ago, they were telling us that it is a waste of time for you to actually wear, like, a full-on N95 face mask to the grocery store, and now they're telling us, by the way, slap a bandana over your face, and maybe that'll protect you.
00:37:53.000As I say, I'm all on board with the let's-get-this-thing-locked-down.
00:37:56.000But could you give us an expectation of when we are not going to be locked down?
00:38:00.000You know, an expectation that's realistic, where we're not all locked in our houses till August, waiting on checks that are not going to arrive from debt that we cannot actually sell?
00:38:17.000Some states are still not issuing stay-at-home orders.
00:38:20.000I mean, whether there should be a federally mandated directive for that or not, I guess that's more of a political question, but just scientifically, doesn't everybody have to be on the same page with this stuff?
00:38:36.000I don't understand why that's not happening.
00:38:38.000As you said, you know, the tension between federally mandated versus states' rights to do what they want is something I don't want to get into.
00:38:45.000But if you look at what's going on in this country, I just don't understand why we're not doing that.
00:39:42.000Okay, it's a little more than inconvenient if you lose your business and you lose your job.
00:39:46.000Like, can we at least not Dismiss the concerns of people who are losing their entire livelihoods and are going to food banks for the first time in their lives, and we hope will be the only time in their lives.
00:39:57.000And can we hear somebody, why will no one in the media ask, I swear to God, no one in the media will ask simple questions of the epidemiologist, like what happens in a second wave?
00:40:07.000How many deaths are going to be prevented in the second wave?
00:40:10.000Are we ramping up our ICU and ventilator capacity such that when there is a second wave in the fall, which literally everybody expects because we're seeing it in Asia, when that happens, do you expect that there will be a number of deaths prevented?
00:40:21.000How many deaths will actually be prevented?
00:40:23.000Not over the course of the next three months, which you've modeled, and I get, and I agree with.
00:40:26.000Over the course of the next year, because that's what we're talking about until a vaccine is developed, right?
00:41:27.000We all believe that there's a greater proportion of people who are asymptomatic than recognized.
00:41:33.000And again, that may correspond with age, with greater number of asymptomatic cases in people under 40.
00:41:40.000And so both severity of disease increases with age, but asymptomatic potential may also decrease with age so that it's more in the younger age groups.
00:41:50.000And so we believe that there could be significant transmission from asymptomatic individuals.
00:41:57.000All of that's true, and it's going to remain true when we all go back to work, presumably.
00:42:01.000I'll tell you what's unsustainable is some of these recommendations.
00:42:03.000The New Jersey governor, Murphy, he came out yesterday.
00:42:08.000He suggests that you're supposed to socially distance inside your own house.
00:42:12.000Like, I'm sorry, that's, not only is that not sustainable, that's not anything anyone is going to do now.
00:42:20.000What the hell am I supposed to do with them?
00:42:21.000Am I supposed to take my month-old baby, shove her in the other room and be like, sorry kid, I'm social distancing right now.
00:42:25.000Am I supposed to take my six-year-old, who came down with the flu, and be like, you know what, I'm gonna be over here, you take care of yourself, here's a barf bucket and some Tylenol, enjoy.
00:42:46.000There's going to come a point where human beings just say no.
00:42:49.000And I'm willing to put that point off as far as possible if you show me what the models say about how many deaths we are preventing one year from now, not three months from now, not four months from now, not six months from now, a year from now.
00:42:59.000I'm willing to do it now while you develop those models.
00:43:02.000Just tell me you're developing the freaking models.
00:43:04.000Just tell me that you're going to know sometime in the future how many lives we're saving here.
00:43:14.000And anybody who just says, don't worry about tomorrow, is not worrying about the people who are suffering now.
00:43:20.000I'm worried about the people who are dying now, and I'm worried about the people who are losing their jobs now, and losing their businesses now, and losing their livelihoods, and watching their dreams destroyed right now.
00:43:28.000I'm worried about all of those people.
00:43:29.000We should all be worried about all of those people.
00:43:31.000By the way, all of those people are still going to work.
00:43:36.000There are a lot of people out there, like, for people who pretend that the, that everybody has the luxury of staying home during this thing.
00:43:58.000This is a picture yesterday from New York.
00:44:00.000Okay, New York is the epicenter of this thing.
00:44:02.000Okay, so this was put out yesterday, this tweet, by Yashar Ali.
00:44:07.000Okay, this is put out by ABC7 New York.
00:44:09.000Quote, this is the number two train at about 6 p.m., Thursday evening, in a photo provided to Eyewitness News by Progressive's Action Twitter account.
00:44:15.000The MTA says it's running as many trains as it can, but has been hobbled because of crews that are out sick or quarantined.
00:44:20.000Public health officials have said social distancing is the key to slowing the spread of the deadly COVID-19.
00:44:25.000New York remains the hardest hit place in the nation.
00:44:27.000This is the number two train, April 2nd, 6 p.m., Um, that ain't social distancing, gang.
00:44:34.000That is mostly young minority people who I assume are coming back from their jobs at 6pm.
00:46:09.000Nonetheless, the New York Times reports, Michael Schwartz reporting, such were the expectations for the Navy hospital ship USNS Comfort.
00:46:15.000And when it chugged into New York Harbor this week, throngs of people momentarily forgetting the strictures of social distancing crammed together along Manhattan's west side to catch a glimpse.
00:46:22.000On Thursday, the huge white vessel, which officials had promised would bring sucker to a city on the brink, sat mostly empty, infuriating executives at local hospitals.
00:46:30.000The ship's 1,000 beds are largely unused, Its 1,200-member crew mostly idle.
00:46:35.000Only 20 patients had been transferred to the ship.
00:46:37.000If I'm blunt about it, it's a joke, said Michael Dowling, the head of Northwell Health, New York's largest hospital system.
00:46:42.000Everyone can say thank you for putting up these wonderful places and opening up these cavernous halls, but we're in a crisis here.
00:47:00.000Also, in other excellent media coverage, the media are going nuts over this story of a commander of an aircraft carrier who was removed for a poor judgment because he publicly suggested that the entire aircraft carrier should be taken out of commission.
00:47:13.000The commanding officer was Captain Brett Crozier.
00:47:17.000He was relieved of command by Carrier Strike Group Commander Rear Admiral Stuart Baker.
00:47:21.000This was announced during a Pentagon press briefing.
00:47:24.000Because he showed poor judgment because he wrote a public memo warning Navy leadership that decisive action was needed to save the lives of the ship's crew.
00:47:32.000He suggested that Crozier was not removed because of any evidence suggesting he leaked the memo to the press, but rather for allowing the complexity of his challenge with the COVID breakout on the ship to overwhelm his ability to act professionally when acting professionally is what was needed most of the time.
00:47:44.000He said, this is the spokesperson for the Pentagon, I have no information nor am I trying to suggest he leaked the information.
00:47:50.000It was published in the San Francisco Chronicle.
00:47:52.000It all came as a big surprise to all of us that it was in the paper, and that's the first time I had seen it.
00:47:56.000There was a memo that was written by Crozier earlier this week to the Navy's Pacific Fleet.
00:48:01.000Modly called Crozier's note a blast-out email to everyone he knows.
00:48:05.000Okay, so the guy wasn't fired for saying that bad things are happening on the ship and we need to do something about it.
00:48:10.000He was fired because he broke chain of command by emailing apparently literal quote everyone he knows saying that a full-on battle carrier should be taken out of commission.
00:48:19.000If you think the military should be allowing its commanding officers to blast out full-on emails to everyone they know about taking 1 11th of America's chief naval capacity off the table I've spoken to military officers.
00:48:32.000I don't know how many military officers are in favor of commanding officers blasting out emails suggesting that aircraft carriers be taken out of commission.
00:48:42.000If we do not act now, we are failing to properly take care of our most trusted asset, our sailors.
00:48:46.000Mildly said Crozio was relieved because he went outside the chain of command and sent his memo over an unsecured system, adding to the chances it could be leaked.
00:48:53.000Of course, top Democrats slammed the move in a statement on Thursday.
00:48:57.000They said, this is a destabilizing move that will put our service members at greater risk.
00:50:42.000Hi, Barbara Gordon, new police commissioner.
00:50:44.000It's really funny, and really, most of the jokes are written for adults, so it's entertaining.
00:50:49.000See, this is the challenge when you have kids at home.
00:50:50.000You have to watch movies that you can handle, right?
00:50:53.000That are not going to drive you completely up a wall while you're watching them with your kids, and this is one of those movies, the Lego Batman movie, worthy of the watch.
00:51:00.000Okay, time for a quick thing that I hate.
00:51:03.000All righty, so there was a big fight that broke out between President Trump and Chuck Schumer yesterday.
00:51:13.000President Trump was railing against what he calls a partisan witch hunt.
00:51:17.000Democrats are already looking to investigate the Trump administration for their response to coronavirus, because it's not like we're in the middle of the thing right now and trying to scramble to get this thing together.
00:51:24.000What we really need is a partisan attack on the administration without looking back, you know, as I did yesterday on the program, at length, the last 15, 20 years of the shortages and the inability to To develop ventilators and develop mass capacity and the failures at every level inside the government to develop any sort of models that actually worked here and the failures of the CDC and the FDA.
00:51:46.000No, it was going to be all about Trump.
00:51:47.000So yesterday, President Trump went off on the partisan investigations.
00:51:52.000Now is not the time to be announcing partisan investigations.
00:51:55.000And by the way, when an investigation is done, as I say, unless it looks a lot like the 9-11 Commission, which basically says government sucks at everything and they suck here too.
00:52:43.000Okay, he is correct about all of this.
00:52:45.000That did not stop Chuck Schumer from issuing an open letter to President Trump yesterday.
00:52:50.000Said, Dear Mr. President, As the coronavirus spreads rapidly into every corner of our nation and its terrible, grim toll grows more severe with each passing day, the tardiness and inadequacy of this administration's response to the crisis becomes more painfully evident.
00:53:02.000This is not a letter designed to get anything done.
00:53:07.000Well-documented shortages of protective equipment, tests, medical supplies are now beyond acute in my home state of New York and other hard-hit areas, and similar shortages are expected soon in many other parts of the country.
00:53:16.000While companies that volunteer to produce ventilators and PPE are to be commended and are appreciated, America cannot rely on a patchwork of uncoordinated voluntary efforts to combat the awful magnitude of this pandemic.
00:53:26.000It's long past time for your administration to designate a senior military official to fix this urgent problem.
00:53:32.000That officer should be given the full authority under the Defense Production Act.
00:53:35.000The existing federal leadership void has left America with an ugly spectacle in which states and cities are literally fending for themselves, often in conflict and competition with each other when trying to procure precious medical supplies and equipment.
00:53:46.000The only way we will fix our PPE and ventilator shortage is with a data-driven, organized, robust plan from the federal government.
00:53:51.000Anything short of that will inevitably mean the problem will remain unsolved and prolong this crisis.
00:53:55.000Again, this is Chuck Schumer writing an open letter to Trump that is designed for partisan political purposes.
00:54:00.000As it stands today, we have charged Dr. Peter Navarro, an academic economist, to be leader of this effort.
00:54:05.000With all due respect, Dr. Navarro, whose expertise is in other areas, is woefully unqualified for this task.
00:54:10.000The existence of a separate shadow effort elsewhere in the White House has made the administration's response even more confused and uncoordinated.
00:54:15.000As you know, there are many logistics professionals in the United States.
00:54:19.000It must be pointed out that while you continue to dismiss the Defense Production Act as not being needed, it is clear the capacity of American interest has not yet been fully harnessed, either in prioritizing and allocating urgently needed medical supplies and equipment, in rapidly expanding domestic manufacturing efforts to produce them, or in providing certainty to manufacturers through purchase orders, purchase guarantees, or other mechanisms, Yes, I'm sure it's very sincere.
00:54:37.000use and distribute all of the medical equipment and supplies that they can produce.
00:54:40.000It's a matter of the utmost urgency for the health of every American.
00:54:43.000Regrettably, our national response is far behind where it should be.
00:54:46.000But by acting now, there's still time to help protect our medical professionals, reduce suffering and save lives.
00:55:08.000Like, we're all fairly well aware, given the media reports and what governors are saying, Cuomo's doing a presser on this every day and being lauded by the media for it.
00:55:15.000And do you really think that the federal government is sitting there going, oh, well, I guess, you know, I guess people are just going to have to die.
00:55:21.000I mean, we're just not going to try here.
00:55:42.000He wrote, Dear Senator Schumer, Thank you for your Democrat public relations letter and incorrect soundbites, which are wrong in every way.
00:55:49.000One, as you are aware, Vice President Pence is in charge of the task force.
00:55:52.000By almost all accounts, he has done a spectacular job.
00:55:55.000Two, the Defense Production Act has been consistently used by my team and me for the purchase of billions of dollars worth of equipment, medical supplies, ventilators, and other related items.
00:56:02.000It has been powerful leverage, so powerful that companies generally do whatever we are asking without even a formal notice.
00:56:07.000They know something is coming, and that's all they need to know.
00:56:10.000A senior military officer is in charge of purchasing, distributing, etc.
00:56:44.000He says, If you spent less time on your ridiculous impeachment hoax, which went haplessly on forever and ended up going nowhere except increasing my poll numbers, and instead focusing on helping the people of New York, New York would not have been so completely unprepared for the invisible enemy.
00:56:56.000No wonder AOC and others are thinking about running against you in the primary.
00:57:01.000Fortunately, we have been working with your state and city governments, Governor Andrew Cuomo and Mayor Bill de Blasio, to get the job done.
00:57:06.000You have been missing in action, except when it comes to the press.
00:57:09.000While you have stated that you don't like Andrew Cuomo, you ought to start working alongside him for the good of all New Yorkers.
00:57:13.000I've known you for many years, but I never knew how bad a senator you are for the state of New York until I became president.
00:57:18.000If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to call, or in the alternative call, Rear Admiral Polowitz.
00:58:43.000When you come out of this, the first thing you should be saying is, get the government the hell away from me for as long as possible and as fast as possible, and get their asses in gear when it comes to preparing for Black Swan events, and that's their main job.
00:58:52.000Yeah, but here's Chuck Schumer pretending to be very appalled about President Trump being mean to him after he sends an open letter calling Trump an incompetent buffoon.
00:58:59.000I spoke to the president late this afternoon and explained it, and the result is this letter.
00:59:56.000Okay, so one other thing that I hate that I'd be remiss in not mentioning today.
01:00:01.000So we were told very early on that this, and I have abided by the opinion of the experts all along the way here, we've been told very early on that this was not in any way developed, this coronavirus was not developed in any way by a Chinese laboratory.
01:00:15.000And now, now there's a piece by David Ignatius in the Washington Post talking about the possibility that, um, by the way, maybe this leaked from a Chinese laboratory.
01:00:34.000The two sides have traded some of the sharpest charges made between two nations since the Soviet Union in 1985 falsely accused the CIA of manufacturing AIDS.
01:00:42.000intelligence officials don't think the pandemic was caused by deliberate wrongdoing.
01:00:46.000The outbreak that has now swept the world instead began with a simpler story, albeit one with tragic consequences.
01:00:51.000The prime suspect is natural transmission from bats to humans, perhaps through unsanitary markets.
01:00:56.000But scientists don't rule out that an accident at a research laboratory in Wuhan might have spread a deadly bat virus that had been collected for scientific study.
01:01:05.000Okay, now I'm old enough to remember when Tom Cotton was ripped for suggesting that there might be information that maybe this is what happened.
01:01:13.000He said, I can't confirm this is what happened.
01:01:14.000I'm not saying I know this is what happened.
01:01:16.000I'm not saying the data support this is what happened, but there've been some pretty strong rumors coming out of China that this may have been something that happened.
01:01:22.000Good science, bad safety is how Senator Tom Cotton put his theory in a February 16th tweet.
01:01:27.000He ranked such a breach, or natural transmission, as more likely than the two extreme possibilities, an accidental leak of an engineered bioweapon or a deliberate release.
01:01:34.000Cotton's earlier loose talk about bioweapons set off a furor back when it first raised it in late January and called the outbreak worse than Chernobyl.
01:01:40.000Trump and Pompeo added to the bio last month, describing the coronavirus as the Chinese virus and the Wuhan virus, of course.
01:01:48.000I mean, not developed, but obviously allowed to disseminate by the Chinese government, lied about by the Chinese government, lied to the WHO.
01:01:55.000The Chinese government is solely responsible for this.
01:01:57.000If we're all going to be forced to wear face masks, by the way, like if we all have to wear face masks, I really want to put out one at Daily Wire that just says on the face mask, F communism, because this is the communist virus.
01:02:08.000China dished wild, irresponsible allegations of its own, says David Ignatius.
01:02:11.000On March 12th, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Li Jianzhao charged it might be the U.S.
01:02:14.000Army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan.
01:02:17.000He retweeted an article that claimed that the U.S.
01:02:19.000troops might have spread the virus when they attended the World Military Games in Wuhan in October of 2019.
01:02:23.000China retreated on March 22nd, when Ambassador to the U.S.
01:02:26.000Kui Tiankai told Axios that such rumors were crazy on both sides.
01:02:32.000intelligence officials think there's no evidence that the coronavirus was created in the laboratory as a potential bioweapon.
01:02:37.000Solid scientific research shows it wasn't engineered by humans and that it originated in bats, but it is unclear how the outbreak occurred in the first place.
01:02:44.000What's increasingly clear is that the initial origin story that the virus was spread by people who ate the bats at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan is shaky.
01:02:54.000Scientists have now identified the culprit as a bat coronavirus through genetic sequencing.
01:02:58.000Bats were not sold at the seafood market, although that market could have sold animals that had contact with bats.
01:03:03.000The Lancet noted in a January study, the first COVID-19 case in Wuhan had no connection to the seafood market at all.
01:03:09.000There's a competing theory that scientists have been puzzling about for weeks, says David Ignatius.
01:03:13.000Less than 300 yards from the seafood market is the Wuhan branch of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
01:03:18.000Researchers from that facility and the nearby Wuhan Institute of Virology have posted articles about collecting bat coronaviruses from around China for study to prevent future illnesses.
01:03:26.000Did one of those samples lead or was hazardous leak or was hazardous waste deposited in a place where it could spread?
01:03:33.000Richard Ebright, Rutgers microbiologist, said the first human infection could have occurred as a natural accident.
01:03:38.000But Ebright cautioned it could also have occurred as a lab accident, with an accidental infection of a laboratory worker.
01:03:44.000So this doesn't mean they militarized the virus.
01:03:46.000But there was a Chinese study that was curiously withdrawn in ResearchGate.
01:03:51.000It was a brief article by Botao Zhao and Li Zhao from Guangzhou's South China University of Technology.
01:03:57.000I apologize for the mispronunciations.
01:03:59.000In addition to the origins of natural recombination and intermediate hosts, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a lab in Wuhan.
01:04:06.000Safety level may need to be reinforced in high-risk biohazardous laboratories.
01:04:10.000So, then it is a complete government failure, right?
01:04:12.000Then it is not even the government didn't lock it down in Wuhan.
01:04:14.000The labs are run by the Chinese government in Wuhan.
01:04:16.000There are no private labs in China, as far as I'm aware.
01:04:20.000Okay, so that means that it's a communist country.
01:04:23.000That means this is purely and simply Chernobyl.
01:04:26.000They didn't mean for it to happen, and it did happen.
01:04:28.000And people were punished, basically publicly, for talking about it.
01:04:34.000Tom Cotton's bad for even mentioning this possibility.
01:04:36.000And oh, by the way, it's also maybe the most likely possibility now, since the original suggestion that somebody just ate a bat at the Wuhan market now appears to be less plausible than the alternative explanation, which is that apparently the bat that this came from was like 600 miles away from Wuhan.
01:04:54.000And the only way it gets there is presumably if somebody takes the virus and brings it to the laboratory there.
01:05:27.000If you want us to pay attention to the strictures, we have to know what the rules are going to do and what they are not going to do.
01:05:32.000And we have to know what the projection of this virus looks like, not for the next week, not for the next two weeks, not for the next month, but what happens when we all leave our houses because we are not staying in our houses for a year.