The Ben Shapiro Show - I Just Got Another ASTOUNDING Email From The Washington Post

00:00:00.000 Well folks, five days until the biggest election of our lifetime will bring you all the news in a moment.

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00:00:23.000 What do you feel in your body when you hear the term white people?

00:00:30.000 I feel like a cringe about it.

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00:00:39.000 Raise a glass if you're racist.

00:00:41.000 To racist.

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00:00:51.000 My daughter's four years old.

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00:00:55.000 Have you talked to her about that?

00:00:56.000 All the time.

00:00:57.000 Is racism inherent to whiteness?

00:01:00.000 Yes.

00:01:00.000 Yeah, probably.

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00:01:35.000 So, on to the news.

00:01:36.000 So, I informed you a little bit earlier this week that I got a message from the New York Times in which they essentially were attempting to pressure YouTube into censoring We're good to go.

00:02:05.000 Yesterday, I received the following email from the Washington Post.

00:02:08.000 Again, when I say that there is a Democratic media human centipede, it's because there is.

00:02:13.000 It's because there is.

00:02:15.000 And the entire goal of that Democratic legacy media human centipede is to shut down anyone who disagrees with them.

00:02:21.000 Anyone and everyone who disagrees with them.

00:02:24.000 So Media Matters have brought out this study, apparently, behind closed doors, and they fed it to the New York Times, who then attempted to get comment from people like me, from Tucker Carlson, from a bunch of other people on the right, in which they were essentially attempting to elicit the response suggesting that we are all election deniers and engaged in misinformation so YouTube could shut us down.

00:02:41.000 The Washington Post literally within 48 hours sent me this email yesterday.

00:02:45.000 Quote, Okay, so what does that mean?

00:03:05.000 They're saying, the suggestion here is, that companies ought to be doing content moderation.

00:03:09.000 Which companies?

00:03:10.000 Well, presumably social media companies ought to be shutting down, once again, shows like this one.

00:03:15.000 YouTube ought to shut down this show, according to the Washington Post.

00:03:17.000 Or perhaps she's talking about Spotify or perhaps iTunes or perhaps she's talking about advertisers.

00:03:23.000 They can't do content moderation on shows like yours.

00:03:26.000 And you are in elections.

00:03:28.000 And this is what The Washington Post reporter is saying.

00:03:30.000 Quote, Our analysis is based on your October interview with former President Trump, where you referred to Democrats as professionals at ballot harvesting, and Trump referred to them as cheaters.

00:03:44.000 Could you please let me know if you have any comment?

00:03:46.000 My deadline is 5 p.m.

00:03:48.000 Eastern today.

00:03:49.000 We received that early in the afternoon yesterday.

00:03:51.000 So, notice the claim.

00:03:54.000 The claim is that I was engaged in election misinformation by referring to Democrats as professionals at ballot harvesting.

00:04:02.000 That apparently is election misinformation.

00:04:03.000 Here is NBC News.

00:04:05.000 Quote, Democrats, for their part, have long enjoyed successes in mail voting, fueled in part by ballot collection where it is legal.

00:04:12.000 The Democratic National Committee said it plans to spend tens of millions of dollars in support of voting programs like mail and early voting.

00:04:19.000 NBC News, you election deniers, you.

00:04:23.000 Engaged in election misinformation every day, apparently, NBC News.

00:04:26.000 Of course, they don't believe that I'm engaged in election misinformation.

00:04:29.000 The thing they're mad about is that I had on Donald Trump.

00:04:32.000 It's not just me they want to censor.

00:04:34.000 They also want to censor Trump.

00:04:35.000 They believe that it is some sort of informational crime for me to have on the former president of the United States and likely future president of the United States.

00:04:44.000 That's insane.

00:04:45.000 It's totally crazy.

00:04:47.000 And again, the claim is, again, that we are supposed to censor President Trump, that I can't say things that are perfectly true about ballot harvesting, which is one of the most corrupt practices in America.

00:04:57.000 It's legal, but corrupt.

00:04:59.000 Okay, Republicans are doing it now also because if that's the process, that's the process.

00:05:03.000 But it is very bad.

00:05:04.000 I do not like ballot harvesting.

00:05:05.000 I do not like it all, Sam.

00:05:06.000 I am.

00:05:07.000 It's bad.

00:05:08.000 Okay, but apparently that's election misinformation sufficient that we should now be silenced.

00:05:14.000 Remember, that's the Washington Post.

00:05:15.000 Now, the Washington Post has become a joke, so much so that Jeff Bezos had to issue an editorial just a couple of days ago titled The Hard Truth, Americans Don't Trust the News Media, in which you recognize that, according to Gallup, Americans just think the news media stink.

00:05:30.000 Well, maybe if Jeff Bezos actually wants to correct things at the Washington Post, it's not enough to stop them from endorsing Kamala Harris on the editorial pages.

00:05:37.000 Maybe he ought to look to his reporting staff who are now doing the bidding of places like Media Matters and coordinating, obviously, with the Democratic apparatus to unleash two separate stories that came out almost simultaneously, one from the New York Times and one from the Washington Post, today.

00:05:53.000 And both of these stories say the same thing.

00:05:55.000 They say that conservative media ought to be destroyed.

00:05:59.000 So that New York Times piece finally dropped.

00:06:01.000 And the New York Times piece has, of course, a big graphic.

00:06:05.000 And the graphic includes people ranging from Tim Pool to Rudy Giuliani to Tucker to Michael Moles to me talking in the background.

00:06:12.000 And the title is Election Falsehoods Take Off on YouTube as it looks the other way.

00:06:18.000 YouTube is not censoring things the way the New York Times would like YouTube to censor things.

00:06:21.000 Just think for a second how sick this is.

00:06:24.000 Truly sick.

00:06:25.000 You have members of the media, members of the press, people who are supposed to be about the dissemination of speech, actively asking YouTube to shut down people they don't like.

00:06:36.000 And again, this is not about election misinformation, because included in their litany of sins is me saying things that Like, for example, Democrats set the rules on ballot harvesting and mail-in voting, which is true.

00:06:49.000 It was reported by the New York Times.

00:06:53.000 They quote me saying that Democrats rigged voting rules in 2020.

00:06:58.000 Okay, what did I actually say?

00:06:59.000 I said, your party rigged many of the voting rules in advance in order to advance mail-in voting and ballot harvesting.

00:07:05.000 That's true.

00:07:06.000 It was reported by both the New York Times and CBS News.

00:07:10.000 In Nevada, that's what happened.

00:07:11.000 The Trump campaign tried to challenge it.

00:07:13.000 And they weren't able to...

00:07:14.000 The challenge fell flat.

00:07:16.000 That happens to be a reality.

00:07:20.000 So, here is what Nico Grant, the ridiculous reporter at the New York Times writes, quote, So, again, the theory here is that YouTube is making money off election denial.

00:07:47.000 Now, Why would you quote me in that context?

00:07:49.000 It's the dead giveaway.

00:07:50.000 I'm the dead giveaway in this story.

00:07:51.000 Why?

00:07:52.000 Because I never said that Trump won the 2020 election.

00:07:56.000 I've said repeatedly that Joe Biden won the 2020 election, at least by the counted ballots, by the state certification procedure.

00:08:02.000 In fact, I challenged between November and January Trump's claims that he had the legal capacity to overthrow the election or that Mike Pence did.

00:08:11.000 And yet they include me in the article anyway, because it's not about election misinformation.

00:08:14.000 It's about destroying everyone on the right.

00:08:16.000 That's what the New York Times wants to do.

00:08:18.000 The New York Times writes, While Media Matters is a partisan organization that regularly criticizes conservatives, reporters and academics frequently cite it as a source on YouTube misinformation because it devotes significant resources to tracking the vast platform.

00:08:30.000 The New York Times independently verified the research, examining all of the videos identified by Media Matters and determining whether YouTube placed ads or fact-check labels on them.

00:08:39.000 So this is them attempting to justify precisely why they just cribbed Media Matters' work.

00:08:44.000 My favorite part of this story from the New York Times is, as you know, I put up a thread on X. That thread received tens of millions of views at this point, I believe.

00:08:53.000 And Tucker Carlson also released a screenshot of his replies to the New York Times reporter basically telling him to F himself, which coincidentally is what I told the New York Times reporter.

00:09:03.000 Here is the quote about our comment.

00:09:05.000 Mr.

00:09:06.000 Carlson and Mr.

00:09:06.000 Shapiro did not directly respond to a series of questions but attacked reporting from the New York Times.

00:09:11.000 Well, I did notice that when I put up the thread and then I sent this reporter the thread, it was an extensive thread.

00:09:20.000 He could have quoted that thread, but he can't quote the thread, because if he quotes the thread, it totally debunks his entire stupid story and shows the underlying motive.

00:09:27.000 Okay, if you thought that that was just a one-off, it was not.

00:09:30.000 Hours apart, literally hours apart, the Washington Post put up their piece, quote, In the podcast election, top shows cast doubt on integrity of 2024 vote.

00:09:39.000 Claims aired on the free-flowing and beloved medium could undercut trust in the results of a razor-tight election, experts say.

00:09:46.000 Experts is always, they just go and they find somebody who works at like Brookings Institute and get them to say the thing the reporter wants to say.

00:09:52.000 Experts say is just a guise for the writer wants to write a thing.

00:09:56.000 I didn't find an expert to say anything in America.

00:09:57.000 It's so easy.

00:09:59.000 Super duper easy.

00:10:00.000 Okay, the lead picture is a terrible old picture of me.

00:10:03.000 I always enjoy when I'm in legacy media because they find whatever is the worst picture of me and put it on there.

00:10:07.000 And it's kind of amusing.

00:10:08.000 They found a crappy picture of me from 2018.

00:10:10.000 I noticed it's 2024.

00:10:13.000 So, I was still in LA at the time.

00:10:15.000 They found a crappy picture.

00:10:16.000 It's the lead picture on the story is me, right?

00:10:18.000 I'm Captain Election Misinformation, according to the Washington Post.

00:10:21.000 Well, folks, all the media do is put out misinformation, but I'll tell you what is misinformation.

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00:10:42.000 Having your private life exposed for others to see was once something that only celebs worried about.

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00:12:38.000 The only reference to me in the story refers to The fact that Donald Trump appeared on this program.

00:12:46.000 You'll recall this.

00:12:47.000 It happened a week ago.

00:12:48.000 Donald Trump appeared on the program.

00:12:50.000 What was the big problem with anything that I said?

00:12:53.000 They can't identify the thing that I said that's a problem because it doesn't exist.

00:12:56.000 Instead, they just say, during October appearances on the Shapiro and Joe Rogan shows, Trump said that Democrats were cheating and that the media was interfering with the election.

00:13:04.000 I have a question.

00:13:05.000 Is it my job, seriously, to not have Donald Trump on the show?

00:13:09.000 Is that the implication by the Washington Post?

00:13:11.000 Democracy dies in darkness.

00:13:14.000 Asked for comment, Shapiro in a post on X cast this story as part of the legacy media's coordinated attempt to destroy conservative media.

00:13:20.000 Yes, because that's what it clearly is when you come out with a story at the same exact time as the New York Times, and both of you are cribbing from the work of media matters, and both of you are lying about the purpose of your story.

00:13:30.000 Of course it's an attempt to destroy conservative media one week out from an election.

00:13:35.000 Now, I'm sorry I thwarted your little stupid plans to get YouTube to shut down shows like this one five days before an election.

00:13:41.000 I'm sorry that your little October surprise has fallen flat.

00:13:45.000 YouTube, by the way, to its credit, has said this stuff isn't election misinformation.

00:13:48.000 It doesn't violate our rules.

00:13:50.000 And so we are not going to ban it.

00:13:53.000 So good for YouTube.

00:13:54.000 But that doesn't mean that the attempt didn't happen.

00:13:56.000 And again, this is all a broader part of the attempt by legacy media.

00:14:02.000 To strangle in the crib any sort of competitive media and any social media structure that refuses to abide by its rules.

00:14:09.000 So the same Washington Post ran a piece yesterday titled Elon Musk says X users fight falsehoods.

00:14:14.000 The falsehoods are winning.

00:14:16.000 X's crowdsourced fact-checking program has been hailed as a bold idea for social media.

00:14:20.000 Research shows it's failing at a critical moment.

00:14:24.000 Well, I mean, if you've noticed community notes on X, they're wonderful.

00:14:29.000 Community notes are one of the best features of X. It's great.

00:14:31.000 For example, I'll give you a great community note yesterday.

00:14:34.000 Nicholas Kristof, the awful columnist at the New York Times.

00:14:37.000 I know, there are many of them, so that descriptor is not specific enough.

00:14:40.000 He's a particular type of awful.

00:14:41.000 But anyway, Nicholas Kristof, He writes the following tweet yesterday.

00:14:45.000 A struggling Nevada mom suffers a miscarriage.

00:14:48.000 Then the police show up and arrest her for manslaughter and she's sentenced to 2.5 to 8 years in prison.

00:14:53.000 Only when a pro bono lawyer steps up and appeals does a judge reverse the conviction and set her free to return to her children.

00:14:59.000 This is family values.

00:15:00.000 Think about that as you vote.

00:15:03.000 Okay, so here is what the community notes then says.

00:15:06.000 One, she smoked meth while pregnant.

00:15:08.000 That is two crimes.

00:15:09.000 Two, her baby was well past viability.

00:15:11.000 The autopsy said 28 to 32 weeks.

00:15:13.000 Three, she admitted she did it to kill the baby.

00:15:15.000 Four, law enforcement believes the baby was born alive and then killed.

00:15:18.000 Five, this was in 2018 before Roe was overturned.

00:15:23.000 So, I mean, that is a hell of a community note.

00:15:25.000 This is why community notes is great.

00:15:27.000 Community Notes allows the tweet to stay up and then the corrections to appear below it, which is quite good.

00:15:33.000 But the Washington Post is very angry because what they would really like is for the old Twitter regime to be in place where they just shut down anything they don't like, where they banned Jordan Peterson for the crime of saying that boys are not girls.

00:15:46.000 Where they shut off the reach of particular conservatives because they just don't like what those conservatives are saying.

00:15:51.000 That's what the Washington Post wants.

00:15:53.000 They want back their informational monopoly.

00:15:54.000 They want it so bad.

00:15:56.000 It's the most important thing to them because that informational monopoly grants them also a market monopoly.

00:16:01.000 If social media allows for the dissemination of alternative viewpoints and these people are busy blowing the trust of the American people, they lose the game.

00:16:09.000 And so the only way to restore their profitability and to restore their business success is to shut down the opposition.

00:16:16.000 That is the only way to restore it.

00:16:18.000 That's the entire game.

00:16:20.000 So they're trying to shut down X now.

00:16:21.000 I mean, they're trying to destroy X and its credibility.

00:16:24.000 The Washington Post says, Musk has touted the crowdsourcing program called Community Notes as the best source of truth on the Internet.

00:16:30.000 But the majority of accurate fact checks proposed by users on political posts are never shown to the public, according to research from the nonprofit Center for Countering Digital Hate and a separate data analysis by The Washington Post.

00:16:41.000 You can notice what the Washington Post is doing now.

00:16:44.000 They're going to left-wing interest groups.

00:16:45.000 They're just cribbing their research and then duplicating the research as the newspaper.

00:16:50.000 The consequences are potentially profound, says the Washington Post.

00:16:53.000 False posts on the service were recently blamed by federal officials for hindering hurricane relief.

00:16:57.000 And exit is poised to play a prominent role in the U.S. presidential election.

00:17:01.000 Now, I noticed that the Washington Post was never particularly interested in policing social media when social media was shutting down the Hunter Biden laptop story at the behest of intelligence agencies and lying intelligence officials.

00:17:15.000 I noticed they didn't care so much about that.

00:17:17.000 They're busy dismissing the Hunter Biden laptop story themselves.

00:17:20.000 So this is not a pursuit of the truth.

00:17:22.000 This is a way of ripping Elon Musk and then blaming him preemptively should Kamala Harris fail.

00:17:26.000 And a lot of these stories are set up for that too.

00:17:29.000 A lot of these stories are set up for who do we blame if Kamala loses?

00:17:33.000 Who do we blame?

00:17:34.000 It is amazing that we've reached the point in American politics really over the course of the last...

00:17:40.000 Three election cycles?

00:17:41.000 It used to be, when I was growing up, and I think for most of American history before that, if a candidate lost, that candidate lost because they were considered worse than the other candidates.

00:17:51.000 It's pretty simple logic.

00:17:52.000 If Al Gore lost to George W. Bush, it's because Al Gore had failed because he was not a sufficient candidate.

00:17:58.000 In 2004, John Kerry lost because he was a bad candidate, a worse candidate than George W. Bush.

00:18:03.000 In 2008, John McCain was a worse candidate than Barack Obama.

00:18:06.000 And yes, in 2012, Mitt Romney was a worse candidate than Barack Obama.

00:18:10.000 And then 2016 happened and it broke brains because Donald Trump was so widely considered a worse candidate than Hillary Clinton by members of the legacy media, by so many in Because of that, when she lost, everybody, including the legacy media, decided she had not, in fact, lost because she was a worse candidate than Trump.

00:18:30.000 Even though she certainly was a worse candidate than Trump.

00:18:33.000 They simply decided that it had to be some extraneous source that caused her to lose.

00:18:37.000 And so we've been living in that bizarre world for the last three election cycles.

00:18:41.000 And so already, the Democrats are prepping their narrative.

00:18:43.000 If Kamala loses, it can't be that she was worse than Trump.

00:18:45.000 Not possible.

00:18:46.000 She's intersectional.

00:18:48.000 She is a black woman.

00:18:49.000 There is no way she was worse than Trump.

00:18:50.000 Doesn't matter that she's worse than Trump.

00:18:52.000 Doesn't matter.

00:18:52.000 She is amazing at this.

00:18:54.000 She is brat.

00:18:55.000 She is joy.

00:18:55.000 She is energy.

00:18:56.000 And you will love it.

00:18:57.000 And if she loses, who do we blame?

00:18:59.000 Who do we blame?

00:19:00.000 Well, probably we ought to blame social media for allowing shows like this one to be aired.

00:19:04.000 Probably we ought to blame Elon Musk for having bought X and freeing up X to allow for the dissemination of alternative points of view.

00:19:10.000 You can see they're already pre-planning their defeat.

00:19:13.000 Who they blame in defeat.

00:19:15.000 And it's gross and it's wrong and it's really dangerous for the country.

00:19:19.000 Because it turns out that if you blame the sources of the dissemination of information for the failure of your candidate, if you do that, you end up cracking down on free speech.

00:19:30.000 Turns out when the Washington Post says democracy dies in darkness, they're the ones turning out the light.

00:19:35.000 Meanwhile, as for the state of the race, the answer right now is nobody knows.

00:19:39.000 Anybody who's telling you that Donald Trump is clearly going to win this election...

00:19:43.000 I can have a gut feeling.

00:19:45.000 My gut is that Trump wins, but my gut doesn't mean anything.

00:19:48.000 What matters is that you need to go and vote.

00:19:51.000 If you're in a swing state, do not be sanguine about this.

00:19:54.000 If you're in a swing state, you need to vote.

00:19:55.000 Your friends need to vote.

00:19:57.000 Everybody needs to vote.

00:19:58.000 Even if you're not in a swing state, you should vote.

00:20:00.000 I mean, if you think that Donald Trump will make a better president because he was a better president than Kamala Harris, you should go vote.

00:20:08.000 That is a thing.

00:20:10.000 There are a lot of tea leaves out there.

00:20:11.000 Nobody quite knows how to read them.

00:20:13.000 Harry Enten, CNN's election analyst, he's sort of been saying this.

00:20:16.000 He says, like, if Kamala wins, there are some warning signs.

00:20:19.000 But he says, you know, if Trump wins, there are a lot of warning signs as to why Trump is going to win.

00:20:25.000 Registration numbers, Harry.

00:20:26.000 Yeah, Republicans have been registering voters in big, huge numbers.

00:20:32.000 They have been gaining in party registration versus the Democrats in the swing states with party registration.

00:20:37.000 We're talking Arizona.

00:20:38.000 I think it's a five point.

00:20:39.000 They've expanded their lead from five points from where it was back in 2020.

00:20:42.000 How about Nevada?

00:20:43.000 Big Republican registrations there.

00:20:45.000 They like the early vote.

00:20:46.000 How about North Carolina?

00:20:47.000 Big Republican registration gains.

00:20:49.000 How about Pennsylvania?

00:20:50.000 We spoke about it before a few months ago.

00:20:52.000 Big Republican party registration gains from where they were four years ago.

00:20:57.000 So Republicans are putting more Republicans in the electorate.

00:21:00.000 The Democratic number versus the Republican number has shrunk.

00:21:03.000 And so the bottom line is, if Republicans win...

00:21:06.000 Come next week.

00:21:07.000 Donald Trump comes next week.

00:21:09.000 The signs all along will have been obvious.

00:21:11.000 We would look at the right direction being very low, Joe Biden's approval rating being very low, and Republicans really registering numbers.

00:21:17.000 You can't say you weren't warned.

00:21:21.000 Okay, so Harry Anson's saying it's quite plausible that Trump wins based on the data that he's seeing.

00:21:26.000 However, it is worth noting here, and again, I put out these points of caution just so that you don't have bad election information.

00:21:31.000 Nate Silver, who again, I think is the best elections analyst in the business, he says that when you look at the early voting numbers, he says that doesn't reliably predict results.

00:21:38.000 You're seeing a lot of this online right now.

00:21:40.000 You're seeing a lot of people say, hey, look at those Nevada early voting numbers.

00:21:42.000 Republicans are killing it in the Nevada early vote.

00:21:44.000 Or you're saying, look at those Pennsylvania early voting numbers.

00:21:47.000 They're doing better than they did in 2020.

00:21:48.000 Okay, but we don't actually know what that means.

00:21:51.000 We don't actually know what that means.

00:21:52.000 Why?

00:21:53.000 Because it turns out that the early voting procedures are really new.

00:21:57.000 It used to be we had election day in this country.

00:21:59.000 You only voted the day of the election, unless you were a veteran overseas or something.

00:22:03.000 If you are living in the modern era, however, like the last two election cycles, mail-in voting now constitutes an extraordinary percentage of the vote.

00:22:11.000 And so does early voting.

00:22:12.000 We're talking, at this point, maybe half of all votes are going to be cast before election day.

00:22:17.000 So it's very difficult to gauge where those votes are coming from.

00:22:20.000 Well, it may be very difficult to suss out exactly what's happening with this election, but there's one thing that is perfectly obvious.

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00:23:30.000 Also, you may have noticed that while we are facing a pivotal moment in American history with the election next week, there is something legacy media won't tell you.

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00:24:32.000 God bless and thank you.

00:24:33.000 So, for example, very easy question.

00:24:35.000 Let's say Republicans are out early voting what they did last time.

00:24:39.000 Are those new voters who are voting early or is that voters who would have voted day of who are voting early to get it out of the way?

00:24:46.000 In other words, are Republicans cannibalizing their election day voting in order to get those early votes?

00:24:50.000 We don't know the answer to that.

00:24:52.000 As Nate Silver says, these are not good baselines, especially coming after a COVID election.

00:24:57.000 He says in 2016, the last non-COVID election, Michael McDonald was able to track down a partisan breakdown of early voting data in 13 states.

00:25:05.000 Some of it is pretty wild stuff.

00:25:07.000 Democrats led the early vote in West Virginia by 12 points, but Trump eventually won the state by more than 40.

00:25:11.000 More Republicans than Democrats voted early in Colorado, but Hillary Clinton won there.

00:25:14.000 Similar states can produce surprisingly different patterns.

00:25:17.000 He says early vote returns are highly non-predictive of election outcomes.

00:25:22.000 On average, the D less R margin in the early vote mispredicted the final Clinton-Trump margin by 14 points in 2016.

00:25:31.000 So could you be wrong?

00:25:33.000 Also, it may be that all of this is accounted for by polls, because it turns out that early voting is not a poll.

00:25:38.000 It is just a count of a select group of people who are voting early.

00:25:43.000 And we also don't know who anyone actually voted for.

00:25:46.000 Like when they say there's an early vote, what they are looking at is the number of registered Republicans who voted early versus the number of Democrats who voted early.

00:25:53.000 But that doesn't mean they necessarily voted Republican or Democrat.

00:25:56.000 They could have switched parties, for example.

00:25:57.000 So it's not totally clear that party ID totally correlates with who you voted for.

00:26:03.000 And finally, as Nate Silver points out, predictions based on the early vote have a really, really bad track record.

00:26:11.000 So he says, you're probably better off ignoring the early vote almost entirely, with the possible exception of John Ralston in Nevada.

00:26:17.000 So he mentioned the Nevada early vote.

00:26:19.000 Republicans are doing better in the early vote than they were expected to, by far.

00:26:23.000 But he says, generally, don't look at the early vote as predictive.

00:26:26.000 What does that mean?

00:26:27.000 It means get your ass out to vote.

00:26:28.000 That's what that really means.

00:26:29.000 Now, with that said, apparently...

00:26:33.000 I just warned you not to look at the early vote.

00:26:34.000 Now I'm going to look at the early vote a little bit.

00:26:35.000 So, Politico has a piece today saying that Democrats are fretting over the early vote in North Carolina.

00:26:40.000 They say that early vote numbers in North Carolina show the electorate skewing older and whiter compared to the state's voter registration.

00:26:46.000 A red flag for Democrats who need black voters to turn out in heavy numbers if Kamala Harris is going to flip the state.

00:26:51.000 By the way, if that's indicative of national trends, that's a serious problem for Kamala Harris.

00:26:54.000 Take Pennsylvania, for example.

00:26:56.000 In Pennsylvania, Most of the state, just territorially, is red.

00:27:00.000 And then you've got Philly, right?

00:27:01.000 Philly is a huge population center, very, very large black population.

00:27:05.000 Democrats need heavy black turnout in the Philadelphia area if they are going to win that election.

00:27:10.000 Are they going to get it?

00:27:12.000 Well, I mean, hard to say.

00:27:14.000 If black turnout in North Carolina is low, is that indicative of a national trend of black turnout being lower than expected?

00:27:21.000 As of Wednesday, according to Politico, black voters in North Carolina make up 18% of the electorate in early voting.

00:27:27.000 Democratic operatives say they have to bump that up to about 20% for Harris to even be competitive statewide.

00:27:32.000 In 2020, black voters were 19% of the electorate and Trump narrowly won the state.

00:27:37.000 So again, very early, too early to tell.

00:27:40.000 However, there are reasons probably for both parties to be a little bit worried at this point.

00:27:44.000 Obviously, nobody should be sanguine about the state of the race.

00:27:48.000 Joining us online is Brent Buchanan.

00:27:49.000 He's president and founder of Signal, an international public opinion polling and analytics firm.

00:27:54.000 And of course, FiveThirtyEight, the New York Times.

00:27:55.000 They've recognized Signal as the most accurate private polling firm in the United States.

00:27:58.000 Brent, thanks so much for the time.

00:27:59.000 Really appreciate it.

00:28:01.000 Hey, great to be with you, Ben.

00:28:04.000 Okay, so let's get right down to it.

00:28:05.000 What is the state of the race right now?

00:28:06.000 I mean, it's the only question anybody really cares about, obviously.

00:28:09.000 You know, who's for sure going to win, Brent?

00:28:11.000 Who's for sure going to win?

00:28:13.000 Oh, what race are you talking about?

00:28:14.000 Is there one going on?

00:28:15.000 That's...

00:28:16.000 And I say that jokingly because there is a segment of the population that actually has that thought right now.

00:28:22.000 And it's hard to think for those of us who are in the bubble and we do and think about this every day and we live and breathe politics to think that there are Americans who have decided to pick their head up and say, oh, I guess there is a race going on and I should pay attention to this.

00:28:38.000 And they're not an insignificant group of the population.

00:28:42.000 Our recent national poll It showed that it's about 6% of Americans fall within this category.

00:28:48.000 And so when people say everything's going to come down to turnout, what they actually mean is, are those people going to show up or are they not going to show up?

00:28:56.000 Because many folks, and we just did a focus group with y'all in the two most important counties in Pennsylvania that have picked the correct election winner going back to Obama's first election, And that was the sentiment on that group of persuadable voters.

00:29:12.000 It was not necessarily like, I'm definitely going to vote for this candidate.

00:29:16.000 It's like, if I decide to show up, I'm going to vote for that candidate.

00:29:20.000 So I know that's a long intro to it, but I think that people don't think about that enough of these individuals who may or may not show up.

00:29:28.000 They're really not paying attention.

00:29:30.000 And If you're looking at some of this early vote data, it definitely looks good for Republicans.

00:29:34.000 But what we've seen is that there's also a large chunk of young male moderate voters who would vote for Trump if they show up too.

00:29:41.000 So my long-winded answer is I would say it's a complete toss-up still with a slight Trump edge.

00:29:50.000 Yeah, so when you look at all of that, you know, it is kind of amazing how the narrative has been built up on the right, that Trump is for sure going to win, the narrative has been built up on the left, that Harris is almost certainly going to win.

00:30:00.000 What's weird about this election is that typically the line from Republicans has been that if it's a low turnout election, Republicans do better, and if it's a high turnout election, Democrats do better.

00:30:07.000 And it seems like this year that's completely reversed, that Trump really needs low propensity voters to show up, and Democrats are really counting heavily on high propensity voters, and the question really is who's going to show.

00:30:19.000 Yeah, I would say the narrative is probably actually somewhere in between there, where if it was a very low turnout, it would actually benefit Democrats.

00:30:25.000 If it was a super high turnout, it benefits Democrats.

00:30:28.000 And Trump actually needs it to land somewhere in the middle, but further up the right end of that curve.

00:30:34.000 And so the perfect scenario for him is somewhere in between 16 and 20 turnout levels.

00:30:43.000 So when you look at the swing states, and obviously this thing is going to come down to just a handful of states at this point, it looks like Trump has enough momentum in Georgia and Arizona that he likely carries it over to the finish line in those particular states.

00:30:55.000 North Carolina, Harris seems to have more hopes in North Carolina, although, again, I'm a little more skeptical.

00:30:59.000 So that means that If you had to gamble at this point, you'd probably say it comes down once again to the blue wall states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan.

00:31:06.000 Each one of those isn't just close in terms of the presidential race.

00:31:10.000 They're very, very close in terms of the Senate races.

00:31:12.000 One of the questions I have about the polling here is how much are the pollsters grouping?

00:31:16.000 You're not seeing any outlier polls, which is weird to me.

00:31:20.000 Why is every top line result the same with widely variant polls?

00:31:25.000 With widely variant breakdowns, you have a widely different breakdown of what the likely voter screen looks like, and then the top line looks exactly the same.

00:31:34.000 Are these just pollsters who are sort of grouping because they're trying to be careful not to give an out-of-the-box answer and then get blamed if they're wrong?

00:31:41.000 I've had the exact same question of why is everything coming in 47, 46, 46, 47?

00:31:46.000 And then when you go look under the hood, which is what I always recommend people do on public polling first, is start at the bottom.

00:31:53.000 Is the partisan break right?

00:31:54.000 If they asked who you voted for in 2020, like, does that make sense?

00:31:57.000 And they have similar top-line numbers, and you're exactly right.

00:32:01.000 The under-the-hood doesn't look the same.

00:32:04.000 And I can't remember an election where there has been so much grouping and this, like, race-tied where everybody wants to say the race is tied so they can say that they're all correct.

00:32:15.000 You know, we're currently in the field in six of the battleground states to get our own answer on that, because we just don't understand how these races are so close in states that historically have not polled close.

00:32:27.000 You know, Wisconsin was a slight Trump loss last time.

00:32:31.000 It was a slight Trump win in 16.

00:32:33.000 Like, I just don't believe any poll that comes out that has him up by four or down by four.

00:32:38.000 But I also don't believe that it's like net even tied because there's been no polling scenario in Wisconsin, which has a trash voter file that has ever showed it tied.

00:32:48.000 And so it seems like they're pulling these levers to make it look a certain way.

00:32:51.000 And again, it does come to turnout and people are making assumptions in the turnout audiences for their polls.

00:32:58.000 But I just I can't for the life of me fathom why you have all this grouping, like you said.

00:33:02.000 Thank you.

00:33:04.000 So when it comes to election night, and I know you're gonna be with us election nights, help us break it down.

00:33:09.000 What are the early things that people should be looking for as indicators as to how the election is going?

00:33:13.000 I know Democrats seem to be worried a little bit about the early voting stats for black voters in North Carolina.

00:33:17.000 If those come in really low, is that an indicator for black turnout in places like Philadelphia?

00:33:22.000 What are your early sort of flags as to which way the election is going?

00:33:26.000 I think too much is being read into early vote statistics already.

00:33:31.000 The only thing that we can take away from the early vote numbers thus far is that more Republicans have voted earlier than they have in the past.

00:33:37.000 And anything beyond that is guessing.

00:33:41.000 Because what normally happens is older, more educated people vote early.

00:33:46.000 And those are also the most likely people to defect.

00:33:49.000 They're a Republican, but they're going to vote for Harris.

00:33:52.000 And so we're trying not to read too much into it, though, following it.

00:33:57.000 So what we're going to be looking for Is who are the states that report early and even?

00:34:02.000 And I think Georgia is going to be one of our best indicators this year.

00:34:07.000 Secretary of State Raffensperger has said that they're not going to do ballot dumps, which was a really frustrating part of trying to follow the 2020 election in a lot of states, but Georgia specifically, where it looked like Trump was up by three and then you'd have 400,000 ballots be counted and added to the total.

00:34:25.000 So there's a lot of states that have also had changed their laws and allowed for more pre-processing of ballots prior to Election Day.

00:34:32.000 So I expect we're going to have a bit smoother, you know, first couple hours of the election.

00:34:38.000 But I'm definitely going to be watching Georgia.

00:34:40.000 I'm going to be looking at Northampton and Erie counties in Pennsylvania.

00:34:44.000 What are the numbers looking like there?

00:34:48.000 Because they, again, have picked the right winners for going all the way back to Obama's first term as the race swapped back and forth to Republican and Democrat.

00:34:57.000 But the biggest thing is that the out West states have such heavy mail voting and MAIL and they don't pre-process those ballots.

00:35:10.000 I mean we may be sitting on pins and needles at two o'clock in the morning waiting on like some of the first data from Arizona as an example.

00:35:20.000 Well, the election's a mess.

00:35:21.000 Brent Buchanan's here to break it all down.

00:35:23.000 Really appreciate the time.

00:35:24.000 We'll see you on election night.

00:35:25.000 That's Brent Buchanan, president and founder of Signal, the most accurate private polling firm in the country.

00:35:29.000 Brent, appreciate it.

00:35:30.000 Hey, thanks, Ben.

00:35:32.000 Well, because this race is so unbelievably tight, and it really, really is tight, every small mistake makes a difference at this point, which is why Joe Biden the other day, obviously and clearly saying that Trump supporters are garbage, which is what he said.

00:35:46.000 There was no apostrophe.

00:35:47.000 He wasn't unclear about it.

00:35:49.000 He said Trump supporters are garbage.

00:35:52.000 That is a problem.

00:35:53.000 It's not a problem for swing voters, right?

00:35:54.000 I don't think that a lot of swing voters are like, you know what?

00:35:56.000 I was thinking about Kamala, but now that Biden called Trump supporters trash, I'm not, can't do it.

00:36:01.000 Pulling the lever for Trump.

00:36:02.000 It's not about that.

00:36:03.000 It's about those marginal Trump voters who, kind of like Trump, were thinking about voting for him, maybe don't vote all that often.

00:36:09.000 Now they're pissed off.

00:36:10.000 So that is a turnout machine for Republicans.

00:36:12.000 That Biden comment is a turnout machine for Republicans, which is why Democrats are freaking out over the fact that old Joe said it.

00:36:20.000 So yesterday, here was Kareem Jean-Pierre lying from the podium of the White House, explaining that he didn't actually call Trump supporters garbage.

00:36:25.000 Who are you going to believe?

00:36:26.000 Your eyes and ears?

00:36:27.000 Or me, Kareem Jean-Pierre, world's worst press secretary.

00:36:32.000 Does he think less of Americans who support Trump than he does of those who do not?

00:36:39.000 And two, why is he using that kind of rhetoric?

00:36:41.000 How is that presidential?

00:36:42.000 So a couple of things, couple of things.

00:36:44.000 So just to clarify, he was not calling Trump supporters garbage, which is why he put out, this is why he wanted to make sure that we put out a statement that clarified what he meant and what he was trying to say.

00:36:58.000 And so just want to make that very clear for folks who are watching.

00:37:00.000 And I just want to read that out to folks.

00:37:05.000 So he was regarding to the comedian, and I quote, I refer to the hateful rhetoric about Puerto Rico spewed by Trump's supporter at his Madison Square Garden rally as garbage.

00:37:21.000 So, she's lying, obviously.

00:37:23.000 Kamala Harris had to dissociate from those comments yesterday.

00:37:27.000 It was kind of awkward for her.

00:37:29.000 I'm not sure what Kamala Harris' compulsion has been since the start of this election cycle where she was kind of tossed in place of Joe Biden.

00:37:36.000 I don't understand why she's been unable to simply dissociate from Biden.

00:37:40.000 That would have been the easiest move in politics.

00:37:42.000 They should have asked her, and many people did ask her, what differentiates you from Biden?

00:37:45.000 She said, listen, I agree with Joe on a lot.

00:37:47.000 I'm privileged that he made me as vice president.

00:37:49.000 However, I thought that we got it wrong on the border, and that is something that I've worked hard to correct and will work hard to correct as president.

00:37:56.000 I mean, she could do that, and she could throw Joe under the bus.

00:37:59.000 She's avoided doing so thus far, probably because she thinks Joe's going to throw her under the bus.

00:38:02.000 Well, now all bets are off.

00:38:03.000 It's too close to the election.

00:38:04.000 So here she was yesterday trying to dissociate from the Biden garbage comments.

00:38:10.000 I think that, first of all, he clarified his comments.

00:38:14.000 But let me be clear, I strongly disagree with any criticism of people based on who they vote for.

00:38:23.000 As you heard my speech last night and continuously throughout my career, I believe that the work that I do is about representing all the people, whether they support me or not.

00:38:37.000 And as president of the United States, I will be a president for all Americans, whether you vote for me or not.

00:38:42.000 That is my responsibility, and that's the kind of work that I've done my entire career, and I take it very seriously.

00:38:50.000 Okay, the last part of that is a total lie.

00:38:53.000 The work that she has done is to unify Americans.

00:38:54.000 I don't know.

00:38:55.000 Throwing pro-lifers in prison doesn't seem like unifying Americans.

00:38:57.000 Saying literally last week there should be no religious exemptions with regard to abortion.

00:39:01.000 That seems to me like a pretty divisive view.

00:39:05.000 Offering giveaways based on race.

00:39:06.000 That seems kind of divisive.

00:39:08.000 Kamala Harris.

00:39:09.000 Making room for the pro-Khamasniks at the table.

00:39:11.000 A little divisive.

00:39:12.000 She doesn't seem like a president for all Americans to me.

00:39:14.000 She was asked if she has sympathy for Trump voters who are being demonized this way.

00:39:18.000 And she sort of skated around a bit.

00:39:22.000 Do you sympathize with any voters who do feel offended by or insulted by the garbage comments?

00:39:29.000 I am running for president of the United States.

00:39:32.000 I will be traveling to three states today to do what I have been doing throughout.

00:39:38.000 She's going to do what we have always been doing throughout and for the future and for all of time in the context of that which we most believe.

00:39:48.000 Ooh, she's bad at this.

00:39:49.000 The big problem for Kamala Harris is that no one believes, truly, no one believes that the modern Democratic Party, which has labeled Donald Trump a Nazi and has labeled his supporters Nazis, is actually sympathetic to Donald Trump supporters.

00:39:59.000 No one believes this.

00:40:00.000 We've had three straight election cycles, four actually, if you go all the way back to 2008, in which the Democrats, sorry, five, right?

00:40:08.000 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2020.

00:40:10.000 We have five straight election cycles in which the Democratic candidate for president has demonized the other side.

00:40:15.000 Five straight.

00:40:16.000 In 2008, Barack Obama called them bitter clingers.

00:40:19.000 And then in 2012, he sort of doubled down, if not on the language, then certainly on the attitude.

00:40:24.000 In 2016, Hillary Clinton called everybody deplorable.

00:40:27.000 In 2020, Joe Biden suggested that ultra-bad super MAGA was ultra-bad traitorous.

00:40:33.000 And then he did that as president.

00:40:35.000 And now you have Joe Biden suggesting that Trump supporters are garbage.

00:40:38.000 So...

00:40:39.000 It turns out that Democrats really don't like their opposition very much, and they don't like any of the people who vote for those people.

00:40:45.000 There's a big distinction in politics, truly.

00:40:47.000 People keep saying that Trump has said something like, everyone who votes for Kamala is human scum.

00:40:51.000 He has not said that.

00:40:52.000 He has not remotely said that.

00:40:53.000 What he actually said, he called his political opponents...

00:40:56.000 Now, I don't love that kind of language with regard to the actual political opponents that you have.

00:41:00.000 I don't think that Trump should call Kamala Harris human scum.

00:41:03.000 That's a little much for me.

00:41:04.000 However, he never said that everyone who votes for Kamala Harris is human scum.

00:41:08.000 He's never even implied that.

00:41:10.000 Okay, but Joe Biden just said that out loud about the Trump supporters.

00:41:14.000 He just said right out loud that they are garbage.

00:41:17.000 His words, not mine.

00:41:17.000 Trump supporters.

00:41:20.000 And again, this is the big problem for Democrats.

00:41:22.000 Many of them believe this to be true.

00:41:23.000 Here, for example, is Charlemagne the God, who two days ago was interviewing Kamala Harris, saying, well, if you support Trump's rhetoric, you are garbage.

00:41:31.000 I don't understand why he's walking that back because, I mean, based off the examples he gave, if you are a person who supports those examples that he gave, you are garbage.

00:41:44.000 Okay, well, I mean, nobody supports the examples that he gave, the Tony Hinchcliffe example, including Donald Trump.

00:41:50.000 So who are you talking about, precisely?

00:41:54.000 And, of course, it's not unique to Charlotte.

00:41:56.000 CNN panelist Daniela Gibbs-Léger, she says, you know, I don't even care what Joe Biden says because Trump's such a mean, bad, very, very bad, mean man.

00:42:04.000 Look, President Biden has a long history of making gaffes.

00:42:07.000 It's not a surprise.

00:42:08.000 He's not on a ballot.

00:42:09.000 And I think her comments were spot on.

00:42:12.000 That's not how she talks.

00:42:13.000 She always is about being inclusive and being a president for the American people.

00:42:17.000 So I understand why the Trump campaign is trying to make this a thing.

00:42:20.000 But please miss me with the outrage from the man who consistently demeans and denigrates the American people since 2015.

00:42:28.000 Please.

00:42:32.000 I'm sorry.

00:42:33.000 Like, enough.

00:42:34.000 Okay, but Donald Trump has, in fact, responded to the Joe Biden garbage comments in the funniest possible way.

00:42:41.000 Troll level 1,000.

00:42:44.000 He did it, the absolute madman.

00:42:46.000 We'll get to that in just one moment.

00:42:48.000 First, it is Halloween, and Matt Walsh's tricks against the left in Am I Racist are your treat over at DW+. I know what you're thinking.

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00:43:36.000 So, you gotta say that Donald Trump, this is a dude who's having fun on the campaign trail.

00:43:39.000 So, yesterday, after Joe Biden's Trump supporters are garbage comment.

00:43:45.000 I don't know who was in the room to set this up.

00:43:47.000 Trump will tell us the story in a moment.

00:43:49.000 But he decided to get a garbage truck, slap a Trump label on the side of it, get on an orange garbage man vest, and then do a presser from a garbage truck in Green Bay, Wisconsin.

00:44:02.000 Yeah, honestly, you gotta love it.

00:44:03.000 You gotta love it.

00:44:05.000 Donald Trump...

00:44:05.000 Here's the thing.

00:44:06.000 There's a side of Americans that is just super corny and super cheesy, and Donald Trump loves that side of Americans.

00:44:12.000 He loves them.

00:44:12.000 Right?

00:44:13.000 Really.

00:44:13.000 This is why Donald Trump wears the big red tie.

00:44:16.000 This is why...

00:44:17.000 Like, he knows image.

00:44:18.000 The reason that he put on the McDonald's uniform...

00:44:18.000 Donald Trump...

00:44:21.000 And was having fun handing out fries is because he understands that most Americans like that stuff.

00:44:25.000 They find it funny, and they find it charming, and it's kind of hilarious.

00:44:28.000 And also, like, you know what other things Americans like?

00:44:31.000 They like Lee Greenwood, so he plays at his rallies.

00:44:33.000 You know what else they like?

00:44:34.000 They like Frank Sinatra.

00:44:35.000 So I'll play Sinatra doing my way.

00:44:38.000 All the stuff that you consider cheesy because we live in an ironic era and a post-authenticity era, because of all of that, Trump, he totally counter-programs that, right?

00:44:47.000 The original MAGA hat, I remember commenting on this at the time, Here's the thing about the MAGA hat.

00:44:50.000 It's super ugly.

00:44:51.000 Like, just aesthetically, it is an ugly hat, right?

00:44:54.000 It is a red hat that is constructed like it's from a family reunion you had with your extended relations in Minnesota in 1997.

00:45:04.000 Okay, the original MAGA hat was like styrofoam and even had like a string across the front.

00:45:09.000 And you know what?

00:45:10.000 People love that stuff.

00:45:11.000 They do, because it's kind of Americana.

00:45:12.000 Donald Trump is Americana, man.

00:45:14.000 There is nothing that says Donald Trump more than America.

00:45:16.000 Here he was, this is like perfect American Donald Trump, inside the truck, wearing the garbage man vest, doing a presser, explaining why he likes Americans.

00:45:26.000 250 million people.

00:45:28.000 That's what I think the real number is for making America great again.

00:45:32.000 250 million, the real number.

00:45:34.000 They don't think in terms of garbage, okay?

00:45:36.000 They don't use terms like that.

00:45:38.000 And it's a shame.

00:45:39.000 And Joe Biden should be ashamed of himself if he knows what he's even doing.

00:45:43.000 And she should be ashamed because she shouldn't let him do it.

00:45:47.000 She's the vice president, but I assume she's acting as the president.

00:45:51.000 She should never have let that happen.

00:45:53.000 I hope you enjoyed this garbage truck.

00:45:55.000 Thank you very much.

00:45:56.000 Thank you!

00:45:59.000 And then Trump goes and he does a rally.

00:46:02.000 And he just leaves the vest on.

00:46:04.000 He just leaves it on.

00:46:05.000 He does the whole rally in the garbage man vest, which is great.

00:46:08.000 Okay, here's the thing.

00:46:09.000 Nobody believes that Donald Trump gave up his job as the presidential candidate and as the head of the Trump organization, all of that, to be a garbage man.

00:46:16.000 No one believes that.

00:46:16.000 The whole point is he's not embarrassed to put on the garbage man vest.

00:46:20.000 He doesn't find that embarrassing.

00:46:21.000 Kamala Harris would be embarrassed to do that.

00:46:23.000 Because in the back of her mind, she's like, well...

00:46:23.000 Why?

00:46:26.000 Garbage, man.

00:46:27.000 You know, is that a real job?

00:46:29.000 I don't know.

00:46:29.000 It's not a real job by community organizers.

00:46:31.000 Like, Trump likes those kinds of people.

00:46:33.000 He's always liked those kind of people.

00:46:35.000 And he likes blue-collar people, which is why blue-collar people like him.

00:46:37.000 So here he was yesterday explaining how this whole stunt came to be.

00:46:41.000 And one of my people came in and said, Sir, you know, the word garbage is the hottest thing right now out there.

00:46:52.000 The hottest thing out there, sir.

00:46:55.000 Would you like to drive a garbage truck?

00:46:57.000 Now, we're about, you know, 30 minutes from landing.

00:47:09.000 We had to do this pretty quick.

00:47:10.000 I said, it's sort of cool, though, isn't it?

00:47:12.000 Because, you know...

00:47:13.000 And I said, you know, I think that's okay, but, you know, I don't feel comfortable wearing a suit.

00:47:19.000 And...

00:47:20.000 They pulled up this garbage truck.

00:47:21.000 I don't know how the hell they did it so fast.

00:47:23.000 I have very capable people.

00:47:25.000 They put a big sign in the truck.

00:47:27.000 Did you see it?

00:47:27.000 I think they showed you.

00:47:28.000 And then they said, Sir, we have a vest.

00:47:40.000 I said, well, should I leave my suit on and put it over the vest?

00:47:44.000 But that doesn't look very good, right?

00:47:46.000 That doesn't look good.

00:47:47.000 So I said, all right, look, let me take it off.

00:47:49.000 And then I actually said, I climbed into the truck.

00:47:53.000 So I said, how the hell do you get into this truck?

00:47:55.000 It's way up high.

00:47:56.000 It's a big one.

00:47:57.000 This was a beauty.

00:47:58.000 I said, you didn't have to buy it that big, right?

00:48:00.000 You have to get it that big?

00:48:05.000 I'm sorry.

00:48:05.000 That's genuine and it's authentic and it's super duper funny.

00:48:08.000 And here's the thing, right?

00:48:09.000 The final point for Trump on this is the right one, which is the reason that he can get away with this is because he actually likes people.

00:48:16.000 And Donald Trump likes people.

00:48:17.000 I've been on the trail with him.

00:48:18.000 I've seen him interact with humans.

00:48:20.000 Donald Trump likes humans.

00:48:21.000 Kamala Harris looks like she has never even met a human.

00:48:25.000 She lives in the uncanny valley with all of the other NPCs.

00:48:30.000 She doesn't feel authentic.

00:48:31.000 She doesn't feel human.

00:48:32.000 And she doesn't really like people.

00:48:34.000 You just get the impression that she's not a person.

00:48:37.000 She had to have a rehearsal dinner just to do a donor dinner a few years ago.

00:48:41.000 Or they had to get her drunk just so she could get used to downing a couple of glasses of wine and being a normie.

00:48:46.000 And here is Donald Trump pointing out, you cannot lead America if you don't love Americans.

00:48:49.000 And I have to begin by saying 250 million Americans are not garbage.

00:48:56.000 This week, Kamala has been comparing her political opponents to the most evil mass murderers in history.

00:49:12.000 And now, speaking on a call for her campaign last night, crooked Joe Biden finally said what he and Kamala really think of our supporters.

00:49:21.000 He called them garbage.

00:49:23.000 No way!

00:49:23.000 No way.

00:49:28.000 And I actually mean it, even though, without question, My supporters are far higher quality than Crooked Joe or Lion Kamala.

00:49:37.000 Higher quality.

00:49:39.000 Higher quality.

00:49:41.000 My response to Joe and Kamala is very simple.

00:49:45.000 You can't lead America if you don't love Americans.

00:49:49.000 It's true.

00:49:53.000 You can't be president if you hate the American people, which I believe they do.

00:50:00.000 I mean, contrast that with Kamala Harris.

00:50:03.000 So yesterday, somebody put together a compendium of the speeches that she's been making on the stump.

00:50:07.000 And listen, I sympathize.

00:50:08.000 I've seen a lot of politicians, particularly this election cycle, and you gotta go and you gotta tell the same story over and over and over.

00:50:13.000 But if you're doing these big rallies, you should be able to mix it up.

00:50:17.000 She's a totally phony, inauthentic politician.

00:50:20.000 She always has been.

00:50:21.000 Here are eight separate Kamala Harris speeches in which she says word for word the same thing with the same cadence.

00:50:28.000 Should never again stand behind the heel of the president of the United States of America.

00:50:37.000 Never again.

00:50:44.000 Eight separate rallies, exact same warning, exact same hand motions, exact same emotional affect.

00:50:55.000 She's an NPC, guys.

00:50:57.000 I'm sorry.

00:50:57.000 She's like the AI candidate, but the AI ain't perfect yet.

00:51:00.000 It ain't that good.

00:51:01.000 She also happens to be a liar.

00:51:02.000 So here she was on the campaign trail yesterday just lying about everything Donald Trump has said about policy.

00:51:07.000 Donald Trump's not done.

00:51:09.000 He would ban abortion nationwide.

00:51:11.000 Yes, even here in Pennsylvania, if he were successful.

00:51:17.000 He would restrict access to birth control, put IVF treatments at risk, and force states to monitor women's pregnancies.

00:51:29.000 Just Google Project 2025.

00:51:32.000 Read the plans for yourself.

00:51:36.000 It's not Project 2025.

00:51:38.000 He's not banning abortion.

00:51:39.000 He's not banning IVF. It's just nonsense.

00:51:41.000 It's just nonsense.

00:51:43.000 The thing is that in this election, one of the big factors is which one is more authentic.

00:51:46.000 That is a real thing.

00:51:47.000 Trump is more authentic.

00:51:48.000 And by the way, I'm sorry, their attempted authenticity, which was bring Tim Walz off the bench, that's been a giant fail.

00:51:54.000 Let me demonstrate for you what a fail Tim Walz is.

00:51:56.000 This is footage of him from the end of a rally yesterday that he did with Kamala Harris.

00:52:00.000 Even Kamala Harris is irritated by the fact that this guy is a bizarro world, wild-handed, insane person, escapee from a mental asylum.

00:52:09.000 Here we go.

00:52:13.000 For those who can't see, he's doing his manic hand clapping.

00:52:16.000 And then he's, like, raising his hands.

00:52:18.000 He's kicking his feet.

00:52:20.000 He can't stand still.

00:52:22.000 Honestly, he's like an ADHD child.

00:52:24.000 Tim Wall's, like, waving his hand all loose-wristed and, like, waving and pointing at people, doing weird things with his feet.

00:52:30.000 And Kamala Harris is like, why am I with this weirdo?

00:52:32.000 Why didn't I pick Josh Shapiro?

00:52:34.000 And he's waving to the crowd.

00:52:35.000 He just keeps waving.

00:52:36.000 And eventually, she looks at him and she taps him on the arm and she says, let's go.

00:52:39.000 And then he turns around and keeps doing it.

00:52:40.000 And she turns around and she's like, Tim, why are you still doing this?

00:52:42.000 What are you doing?

00:52:42.000 What are you...

00:52:43.000 That's your pick.

00:52:44.000 Solid job, guys.

00:52:45.000 Really, really solid job.

00:52:47.000 Okay, well, yesterday we had the opportunity to sit down with Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida.

00:52:51.000 There are two big ballot initiatives that are coming up here in Florida.

00:52:54.000 It's a good window into what Democrats are trying to do nationally.

00:52:57.000 Here is a bit of what we talked about yesterday.

00:53:00.000 Unfortunately, we've had to edit out some important information because big tech won't let us say that sort of thing.

00:53:05.000 To listen to the full uncut show, go to dailywire.com slash subscribe.

00:53:09.000 I'm here with Governor Ron DeSantis.

00:53:11.000 Governor, thanks so much for stopping by.

00:53:12.000 I really appreciate it.

00:53:13.000 No, it's great to be here.

00:53:14.000 I'm glad you got a nice Southern command down here.

00:53:16.000 You're not the first one to do it, but you've been doing really well down here.

00:53:20.000 It kind of reminds me Rush had a place in West Palm, so congrats.

00:53:23.000 Exactly.

00:53:23.000 Yeah, no, well, you've drawn a lot of us here.

00:53:25.000 And I want to talk about that, you know, your governance style and the fact that you've been able to change things here.

00:53:30.000 But there are two big amendments on the ballot this year in the state of Florida.

00:53:33.000 They do have sort of national ramifications because Whether Florida becomes a swing state or not, again, that's obviously been a Democratic dream.

00:53:39.000 Things have changed pretty radically down here in terms of voter registration.

00:53:42.000 These two amendments are an attempt by Democrats, largely in the state, to regain some sort of mojo.

00:53:48.000 Let's talk about the amendments on the ballot.

00:53:49.000 let's start with Amendment 4.

00:53:50.000 Amendment 4 is an attempt to claw back the heartbeat bill that you pass in the state legislature that essentially guarantees the right to life of kids beyond fetal heartbeat.

00:53:59.000 And what does Amendment 4 do?

00:54:01.000 Because I think there's been a lot of...

00:54:03.000 Well, I think it does more than that.

00:54:04.000 I mean, so I always tell voters, how did these amendments get here?

00:54:08.000 So this is the left, Soros, Planned Parenthood, 1630 fund, which has foreign money.

00:54:15.000 They've done $120 million.

00:54:17.000 And what they're doing is they provide a very opaque amendment, no definitions on any of this stuff.

00:54:22.000 So we really don't know what some of this stuff will do.

00:54:25.000 They obviously will want to have a very aggressive left-wing posture.

00:54:29.000 No limits on when an abortion could be performed.

00:54:32.000 It says viability, which they say would be about 26 weeks, which would mean six months in, you can have a fully formed baby, can feel pain, sucking its thumb, heartbeat, and for no reason at all can just be snuffed out.

00:54:45.000 But if you read beyond that the way the amendment's written, it really has an exception that swallows the rule because it says an abortion can be performed at any time if the, quote, health care provider deems it's necessary to protect patient health.

00:54:57.000 They do not define patient health, and we know the left would include things like mental health, which would basically mean a non-physician could green light an abortion at any moment of birth.

00:55:08.000 It also eliminates parental consent for minors, and they do it in a very underhanded way because they say nothing can infringe on the right of the legislature to require parental notification.

00:55:18.000 So people see that, oh, parents' rights.

00:55:20.000 But that claws back what we have in law now, which is consent.

00:55:24.000 So you'll have this odd thing in Florida where they can send you a notice and say, oh, yeah, your kid is at an abortion clinic across the state.

00:55:31.000 There's a non-physician that's recommending a late-term abortion.

00:55:35.000 Just thought you'd like to know that without any parent involvement.

00:55:40.000 You would not be able to prescribe a Tylenol to a minor without parental consent, but somehow a minor could get a late-term abortion without parental consent.

00:55:48.000 And then the final thing that's tricky about this, it doesn't say it in there, but they did the similar thing in Michigan.

00:55:53.000 And they passed these things.

00:55:54.000 Then they run into court and say, oh, taxpayers are required to fund the abortions because this is a constitutional right.

00:56:01.000 So that will happen in Florida.

00:56:03.000 They will go try to find a liberal judge and then get taxpayers to try to fund this.

00:56:07.000 And so this is the left.

00:56:10.000 It's ideology, but it's also a business.

00:56:12.000 Southeast part of the United States, all the states from Texas to South Carolina have pro-life laws in place.

00:56:18.000 So if this passes in Florida, we will be the epicenter of abortion nationwide.

00:56:24.000 And we would have one of the most radical pro-abortion regimes, not just in the United States, but in the world.

00:56:29.000 And in fact, I think it would be worse than California, Colorado, some of the nine-month states, because this health care provider, people that aren't pro-life, and I have a lot of friends who aren't, what they will say is, look, they don't like abortion.

00:56:41.000 They think it should be rare, but they don't support legal protections for the unborn because they think that that should be resolved by the woman, mother, and the doctor.

00:56:50.000 Mother and the doctor.

00:56:52.000 Healthcare provider does not need to be a physician.

00:56:55.000 So you are opening up a can of worms.

00:56:57.000 And why would they do that?

00:56:58.000 Because I have some people who will read that.

00:57:00.000 They're like, oh my gosh, that's appalling.

00:57:02.000 Why is that language?

00:57:03.000 Money.

00:57:03.000 They will be able to run bootleg abortion clinics.

00:57:06.000 They will not have to have physicians on staff overseeing.

00:57:09.000 And they will make a lot more money.

00:57:11.000 And they'll be bringing people in from Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, all converging in Florida so that they can prop up a failing business model.

00:57:19.000 It's important for people also to know groups like Planned Parenthood, they're not only involved in abortion on demand, they're doing the gender surgeries.

00:57:27.000 That's a big part of their business model now.

00:57:30.000 So all this money and potentially taxpayer money will go into that.

00:57:34.000 So if you're pro-life, this is an easy no vote.

00:57:36.000 But even if you're not, I haven't met very many people who think that there should be no limitations at all and that parental consent should be revoked and that non-physicians should be empowered to greenlight abortions up until the moment of birth.

00:57:50.000 As you mentioned, the overreach is so dramatic in Amendment 4, but they've really been obscuring what Amendment 4 says.

00:57:55.000 I originally characterized it as a clawback, but as you say, it's not a clawback.

00:57:58.000 It is moving way beyond the boundaries of where prior Florida law was, even before the state legislature issued new rules on abortion.

00:58:08.000 You mentioned money.

00:58:09.000 What are the political reasons why you think they're going so extreme here?

00:58:12.000 Here's the thing.

00:58:13.000 Well, because I just think that they would never do anything more modest.

00:58:17.000 But it's interesting because they have a certain playbook that they run around the country, and usually they overpower the airwaves with ads.

00:58:23.000 We fought back, I think, effectively.

00:58:25.000 But in Florida, they're saying, if someone is raped, well, our heartbeat law has an exception for rape.

00:58:31.000 They talk about it.

00:58:32.000 We have an exception for incest.

00:58:33.000 They talk about life and health of the mother.

00:58:35.000 We have that in the law.

00:58:37.000 And then they'll say if someone has a miscarriage, they would be denied care.

00:58:41.000 To the contrary, not only is that obviously not prevented in Florida, a doctor would be committing malpractice if he said they couldn't treat you because of a misunderstanding of Florida law.

00:58:50.000 So everything they're doing to attack Florida law is actually not in our law.

00:58:56.000 They're not even running ads saying a heartbeat is too short a time.

00:59:00.000 It should be extended.

00:59:01.000 That would be at least a debate that was based in fact if that was their position.

00:59:07.000 They're running on all these things that are not in Florida law just because they know those would be unpopular if they are, but they're not.

00:59:14.000 And I think that that's very telling.

00:59:16.000 So this is just a regime that they want.

00:59:18.000 They'll make money.

00:59:19.000 They'll have political power.

00:59:20.000 And you mentioned, look, This is just wrong.

00:59:23.000 I mean, it's wrong to take away parents' rights.

00:59:25.000 It's wrong to have a fully formed baby snuffed out for no reason, six months, eight months, nine months.

00:59:31.000 And the thing is, is the media doesn't like to acknowledge this, but there are tens of thousands of late-term abortions that happen in this country, and the majority are elective.

00:59:40.000 They are not for medical reasons.

00:59:42.000 And so that would happen in Florida, and people think it's wrong.

00:59:46.000 But I also, from the political perspective, because you did mention it, When I got elected governor in 2018, we had 300,000 more registered Democrats in Florida than Republicans.

00:59:55.000 We were the top swing state.

00:59:56.000 The state had never had more registered Republicans than Democrats.

01:00:00.000 Four years later, I'm running for reelection.

01:00:02.000 We flipped it.

01:00:02.000 We had 300,000 more registered Republicans in the 2022 election than Democrats.

01:00:07.000 Obviously, we had a big red wave that year.

01:00:10.000 Interesting, since at that time when we did the heartbeat bill, we've gone from 300,000 more to 1.1 million more.

01:00:18.000 And so what's happened, I think, is people that are moving here, they're drawn because we have conservative policy that works.

01:00:26.000 Some of the liberals may not like that because we have conservative policy that works, which is fine, but we've really created a situation.

01:00:33.000 So if Amendment 4 passes, you have taxpayer-funded abortion on demand, that is going to start to turn Florida in the other direction politically.

01:00:42.000 There's just no way around it.

01:00:43.000 Governor DeSantis, I would be remiss for the week before the national election if I didn't ask you about what you think is going to happen in the national election on Tuesday.

01:00:51.000 What are the big obstacles you see to a Trump victory?

01:00:54.000 And do you think that President Trump is on track right now to win?

01:00:57.000 So I think that we have an administration that has failed.

01:01:00.000 And the public, you see that.

01:01:02.000 They think the country's on the wrong track.

01:01:04.000 They give Joe Biden very low marks.

01:01:06.000 And so the Democrats are running the vice president from that administration.

01:01:11.000 So she's running as claiming she's the change agent, but yet she can't identify what she would have done different since Biden's been in.

01:01:20.000 Could she not even acknowledge their border policy has failed?

01:01:23.000 Could she not acknowledge that it would have been better not to have 13 American service members killed in Afghanistan?

01:01:28.000 Can she acknowledge anything?

01:01:29.000 So she doesn't acknowledge that.

01:01:31.000 And so somehow we're expected to think that she's going to be this positive change agent.

01:01:36.000 And I think what happened, and I warned people that Biden was going to be replaced.

01:01:40.000 I mean, I thought that was true for a long time.

01:01:42.000 But after that debate, the first debate with Trump, I said, Biden's gone.

01:01:46.000 It's just a matter of when.

01:01:48.000 And some people say, oh, it's too late.

01:01:49.000 The money.

01:01:50.000 I was like, no.

01:01:51.000 Whoever it is, they're going to get showered with money.

01:01:54.000 And she's raised more money than anyone's ever raised.

01:01:57.000 But the media is going to do hundreds of millions of dollars in positive press.

01:02:01.000 And so to me, the election would ultimately hinge on that is going to be the biggest gaslighting operation in American history.

01:02:10.000 And the question is, is that going to be enough to get her or will people start to see who the real Kamala Harris is?

01:02:18.000 And I think that every interview she gives, every time she can't, when she does her word salads, more and more people say, you know, she's just not up to the job.

01:02:27.000 And so I think in terms of the commander-in-chief test, you know, they throw all these invectives at Trump, but he was president.

01:02:34.000 Like, it's one thing if he hadn't been president and you're going to try to say he's going to be the second, you know, coming of Adolf Hitler.

01:02:40.000 I mean, obviously that wouldn't be credible, but He was president for four years.

01:02:43.000 Okay, people can look at the record, and there's a lot of Americans that think that's better than what we've had.

01:02:48.000 And if you don't like it, that's fine.

01:02:50.000 But they're missing the mark, I think, on some of this criticism.

01:02:53.000 So I think the fundamentals are in our favor.

01:02:56.000 I think that Trump has proven to be a better candidate than Kamala.

01:02:59.000 I would say the concern would just simply be, you know, to win.

01:03:04.000 He can't just win Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina.

01:03:10.000 He's got to win one of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

01:03:13.000 Those did not perform well for us in the midterms, different than a presidential election.

01:03:18.000 But what was going on in those states that we did so bad as Republicans, and are we going to be able to get the turnout to be able to win one of those?

01:03:26.000 You know, I think ultimately he's in a good position to do that.

01:03:29.000 But that was really what the election is going to come down.

01:03:32.000 I really doubt she's going to be able to win states like North Carolina and Georgia.

01:03:37.000 I just don't think so.

01:03:39.000 I mean, she's the most liberal candidate that's ever been put up by the Democratic Party.

01:03:43.000 And I know the demographics in those states have changed a little bit.

01:03:47.000 But I just don't think that she's going to do it.

01:03:49.000 So she's got to win all three of those.

01:03:50.000 Donald Trump only needs to win one of those.

01:03:52.000 Well, Governor DeSantis, thank you so much for stopping by.

01:03:54.000 Thanks for what you're doing for the state.

01:03:55.000 On a continuing basis, we're very grateful to live in a state governed by you, the best governor in America.

01:04:00.000 Thank you again for your time.

01:04:01.000 Well, no on three and no on four will keep us the best and freest state.

01:04:05.000 If you vote yes on no and they pass, then we're going to start to become California through the back door.

01:04:10.000 God forbid.

01:04:11.000 Well, Governor DeSantis, thank you so much.

01:04:12.000 Really appreciate it.

01:04:14.000 Alrighty, guys.

01:04:14.000 Coming up, we're going to jump into questions about how voting is going to happen, when we're going to get results, and all of that.

01:04:20.000 If you're not a member, become a member.

01:04:21.000 Use code SHAPIRO. Check out for two months free on annual plans.

The Ben Shapiro Show - October 31, 2024

I Just Got Another ASTOUNDING Email From The Washington Post

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