The Ben Shapiro Show - Is War With China Coming?

00:00:00.000 It's very easy to get caught up in the horse race and because, again, we are in a presidential pre-year.

00:00:06.000 The presidential year used to start in like 2024, but now it stretches the full year beforehand.

00:00:10.000 It's only September of the prior year and we are already in full horse race mode, but it's It's easy to forget that the presidency actually matters.

00:00:18.000 It's not just about all of the lights and the whistles.

00:00:22.000 It's also about, can you be the president of the United States and do a good job?

00:00:25.000 And Joe Biden continues to prove that he is not capable of this.

00:00:28.000 So over the weekend, Joe Biden went to Hanoi, Vietnam.

00:00:32.000 His strategy in Vietnam was to apparently attempt to create some sort of division between Vietnam and China.

00:00:37.000 It was essentially a containment strategy.

00:00:39.000 And this is a strategy that has been pursued in bipartisan fashion by every president for the last 10 or 15 years.

00:00:46.000 The basic idea is you get Japan and South Korea and Vietnam and all of the countries that surround China to basically create a counterweight to China and box them in such that America has allies surrounding China in pretty much every direction.

00:00:59.000 That at least is the strategy.

00:01:01.000 And that requires some delicate diplomacy because the fact is that China is a very aggressive country and under Xi Jinping, an increasingly aggressive country.

00:01:08.000 It would also require that the Chinese, you know, have a little bit of fear that the American president is actually going to stand by his word, that the American president is actually somebody.

00:01:17.000 Who's going to stand up for a particular line.

00:01:20.000 And if a line is drawn and that line is crossed, that the Americans are actually going to do something about it.

00:01:24.000 Well, that is rather undercut when the president of the United States is feeble.

00:01:28.000 And there is no question about this. 0.97

00:01:29.000 Joe Biden is feeble.

00:01:30.000 So his entire team put out a schedule of his events yesterday, today.

00:01:35.000 He apparently was going to be in Vietnam yesterday and over the weekend, he flew there and he had a bevy of events and he got on a plane and he headed to Alaska for the September 11th memorial event.

00:01:44.000 I don't know why he's in Alaska.

00:01:46.000 For the September 11 Memorial event, it doesn't make any sense to me.

00:01:48.000 Last I checked, I mean, I was there for September 11th, and so were you, I assume.

00:01:52.000 And you recall that it had literally nothing to do with Alaska.

00:01:56.000 But for some reason, Joe Biden is going to be in Alaska for September 11th, because why the hell not?

00:02:01.000 And this was proof of his virality.

00:02:03.000 This is proof that he was somebody who was durable, and he was going to be somebody who can stand up to the rigors of the job.

00:02:09.000 There's only one problem.

00:02:10.000 By the time he hit Vietnam, dude was asleep, and he just stayed asleep the entire trip.

00:02:14.000 So, for example, Joe Biden's staff had to cut him off in the middle of a sentence because he doesn't know where he is.

00:02:20.000 He started wandering on the stage.

00:02:22.000 No one knows what he's doing here.

00:02:25.000 We talked about at the conference overall.

00:02:28.000 We talked about stability.

00:02:30.000 We talked about making sure that the Third World, excuse me, the Southern Hemisphere had access to change. 1.00

00:02:40.000 It wasn't confrontational at all.

00:02:44.000 Thank you everybody.

00:02:45.000 This ends the press conference.

00:02:46.000 Thanks everyone.

00:02:48.000 Thank you.

00:02:49.000 Oh, tinkly piano.

00:02:56.000 Play him off.

00:02:57.000 It's the Tonys now.

00:02:59.000 He's getting a war.

00:03:00.000 I'm sorry.

00:03:01.000 Your time is up, Mr. President.

00:03:02.000 Do do do.

00:03:03.000 Just get the tinkly. 0.75

00:03:04.000 Just get Kenny G in the corner with the saxophone.

00:03:07.000 Joe Biden also said in the middle of this press conference that he was going to bed,

00:03:10.000 which is always a great indicator of just the the absolute vitality of the presidency.

00:03:16.000 Here was Joe Biden explaining that he is going to sleep.

00:03:21.000 Thank you.

00:03:22.000 Anyway, I just think that there are other things on leaders' minds, and they respond to what's needed at the time.

00:03:30.000 And look, nobody likes having celebrated international meetings if you don't know what you want at the meeting, if you don't have a game plan.

00:03:49.000 He may have a game plan.

00:03:51.000 He just hasn't shared it with me.

00:03:53.000 But I tell you what, I don't know about you, but I'm going to go to bed.

00:03:57.000 Uh, what?

00:04:03.000 Very encouraging stuff there from the President of the United States, who apparently is capable of allowing a sound to emerge from his mouth only once every five or six seconds before he has to tell people that he is ready for his beddy-bye, his warm cup of milk, and a big, big hug from his night nurse.

00:04:20.000 Presumably his press secretary.

00:04:21.000 That is insane stuff.

00:04:23.000 But here is the problem for Joe Biden.

00:04:25.000 He's bad at the job.

00:04:26.000 It's not just that he is physically feeble, which he is, or that he is mentally feeble, which he has kind of always been and he is just more so now. 0.99

00:04:33.000 The problem with Joe Biden is that his policies are garbage and we have aggressive enemies. 0.98

00:04:37.000 So today is in fact September 11th. 0.99

00:04:39.000 There are many lessons we should have learned on September 11th.

00:04:41.000 And that we've busily spent the last 20 years on learning.

00:04:44.000 One of those big lessons is foreign policy actually matters.

00:04:47.000 It actually has consequences.

00:04:49.000 And that if you don't have a little bit of foresight, the consequences can be disastrous.

00:04:52.000 Now, the foresight we did not have in the 1990s is that if we did not stop Al Qaeda in its tracks in 1998, when they bombed the embassies in Tanzania and Kenya, that that would come back to haunt America as Al Qaeda grew and metastasized, and it would end with the death of 3,000 Americans on 9-11.

00:05:06.000 Okay, what we're talking about right now is orders of magnitude larger.

00:05:12.000 If you don't stop the Chinese government in its tracks when it comes to its aggressive 0.99

00:05:16.000 instincts, we're not talking about, you know, 3,000 Americans dead, which was the worst

00:05:22.000 tragedy on American soil since the Second World War.

00:05:26.000 You're talking about like a full scale conflagration with the largest physical army on planet Earth.

00:05:32.000 America has the best army on planet Earth, the most technologically advanced army on planet Earth.

00:05:36.000 But if you don't stop the Chinese, people bumble their way into war because of misinterpretation.

00:05:41.000 They think the other side is weaker than it is.

00:05:43.000 Most wars in the modern era get started exactly the way the war between Russia and Ukraine got started.

00:05:47.000 Russia misinterpreted signals from the West that they wouldn't do anything if Ukraine was invaded.

00:05:52.000 And they misinterpreted Ukraine's military strength, and then they invaded.

00:05:55.000 And now we are now in year two of a long war that has killed hundreds of thousands of people.

00:06:01.000 Those sorts of misinterpretations are created by failures of communication.

00:06:06.000 And Joe Biden cannot communicate.

00:06:08.000 He is not capable of this.

00:06:09.000 And meanwhile, Xi Jinping is becoming more and more aggressive.

00:06:12.000 His entire strategy with regard to China is quite frightening.

00:06:16.000 Not because it's bound to be successful or make China stronger, but because it is bound to make China actually weaker and thus more aggressive.

00:06:22.000 I've talked about this before.

00:06:23.000 China has massive problems.

00:06:24.000 We did a YouTube video you should check out in our series, Fact, where I talk about the big problems that China has, but they include things like demographics.

00:06:30.000 China is completely demographically upside down.

00:06:32.000 They do not have enough young people to actually provide the labor force or the earning force to pay for all of the debt they've taken out.

00:06:38.000 Speaking of which, their debt is extraordinary.

00:06:40.000 If you actually take into account all of the public and private debt that they've incurred, and there's no such thing as a real private sector, everything is backed by the government over there, you are talking about a country that is up to its eyeballs in debt.

00:06:50.000 And you are talking about a country that has now cut off the only mechanism for economic success that was available to it in capitalism.

00:06:56.000 So at least prior regimes in China were moving more toward a sort of bizarre backdoor capitalism, where Hong Kong acted as basically a way to flush money into the system.

00:07:07.000 They would allow corrupt capitalism to corrupt their little, their wonderful regime of communism, just to support it.

00:07:13.000 But now Xi Jinping, he's actually an ideologue, and he's like, no, we're not doing any of that.

00:07:16.000 Autarchy inside our own borders. 0.52

00:07:17.000 Well, as China gets weaker, it's spending more on its military budget, and it's going to have to get aggressive on its foreign borders.

00:07:23.000 We'll get to this in just one second.

00:07:24.000 First, I need to talk to you about DailyWire's most trusted privacy partner and premier sponsor of this show, ExpressVPN.

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00:08:27.000 Okay, so.

00:08:29.000 Xi Jinping is getting more and more aggressive.

00:08:31.000 Article today, from the Atlantic, the world's most powerful leaders gathered in New Delhi for this year's premier diplomatic event, the G20 summit.

00:08:37.000 But China's Xi Jinping deemed it not worth his time.

00:08:39.000 His absence sends a stark signal China is done with the established world order.

00:08:43.000 Ditching the summit marks a dramatic turn in China's foreign policy.

00:08:46.000 For the past several years, Xi has apparently sought to make China an alternative to the West.

00:08:50.000 Now she is positioning his country as a full-on opponent, ready to align its own bloc against the United States, its partners, and international institutions they support.

00:08:57.000 Xi's break with the establishment has been a long time coming.

00:08:59.000 His predecessors integrated China into the U.S.-led global order by joining its foundational institutions like the World Bank and the WTO.

00:09:05.000 For much of his tenure over the past decade, Xi has kept a foot in the door to the Western order, even as China's relations with the U.S.

00:09:11.000 have deteriorated.

00:09:12.000 China even participated, though grudgingly, in G20 efforts to help alleviate debt burdens on struggling low-income countries.

00:09:17.000 But over the course of his rule, Xi has now grown hostile to the existing order.

00:09:20.000 He's intent on altering it.

00:09:22.000 He's focused on developing alternative institutions Beijing could lead and control.

00:09:25.000 He formed the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

00:09:27.000 He's rivaled the World Bank.

00:09:28.000 He's promoted competing international forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, whose membership includes Russia and Iran.

00:09:35.000 He's going to stick around at the UN because obviously he thinks he can militarize it, but the G20 is not one of the places where he is actually flexing his influence because he would like to undercut the G20.

00:09:46.000 The map controversy suggests Xi's nationalist pursuit of global power could undermine his push to lead a new bloc against the West because he is ticking off, by the way, the Indians, for example, but He sees the United States as his chief global opponent.

00:10:01.000 This is being high-lit over the weekend by the fact that China went on high alert after U.S.

00:10:04.000 and Canadian ships went through the Taiwan Strait, according to the Agence France-Presse.

00:10:08.000 China said on Saturday that its troops were on constant high alert after two ships belonging to the U.S.

00:10:12.000 and Canada transited through the Taiwan Strait, according to a military spokesperson. 0.97

00:10:16.000 This, by the way, is one reason why the United States cutting back its military budget, particularly on the Navy, is idiotic in the extreme. 0.92

00:10:23.000 It is true the United States has the world's most powerful navy by a long shot. 0.78

00:10:25.000 It is also true that the United States requires the world's most powerful navy because many of the shipping lanes that are easy choke points for our enemies are very, very far away from us.

00:10:35.000 China doesn't require a deep water navy in order to challenge the United States.

00:10:38.000 All they require is what they call a grey water navy in order to ensure that they can basically control the Taiwan Strait.

00:10:48.000 The Taiwan Strait is right in their backyard. 0.96

00:10:50.000 It is not in our backyard, obviously.

00:10:53.000 So this is a problem for us.

00:10:55.000 So you'd imagine that strong American leadership would be something worthwhile.

00:10:59.000 Well, meanwhile, Joe Biden, he's out there saying things like, I don't want to contain China.

00:11:03.000 I don't want to contain.

00:11:04.000 Well, why not?

00:11:06.000 Seriously, why not?

00:11:07.000 Why would you not want to contain China? 0.99

00:11:09.000 I understand that we're sort of pussyfooting around this whole issue with China, but the reality is the G is not.

00:11:13.000 And taking a more aggressive posture toward China saying, listen, The way that your regime is currently attacking the rest of the world with its soft power and sometimes with hard power is not acceptable to the United States.

00:11:27.000 We're going to build up our military and we are not going to allow you to use your expansionism to threaten American interests, which do include places like Taiwan.

00:11:35.000 What's weird about Biden is that he's taking this completely confused approach.

00:11:38.000 So from time to time, he will say things like, if Taiwan is attacked, America will defend.

00:11:42.000 Which, as I've said before, is actually not a terrible thing to say.

00:11:46.000 I think it's actually the right thing to say.

00:11:48.000 But it would require an actual dedication to a military budget capable of supporting that kind of brash talk.

00:11:54.000 Biden's talk on foreign policy is generally empty words, followed by very little else.

00:11:59.000 And this creates very sticky situations, as we'll see when it comes to Ukraine in a second.

00:12:03.000 Here is Joe Biden saying he doesn't want to contain China.

00:12:06.000 It's less about containing China.

00:12:07.000 I don't want to contain China. 0.99

00:12:11.000 I just want to make sure we have a relationship with China that is on the up and up, squared away. 1.00

00:12:15.000 way. Everybody knows what's going on.

00:12:17.000 OK, so I mean, all of that, he doesn't want to contain China.

00:12:22.000 I don't know what he thinks he means by that.

00:12:25.000 I really don't. So he was in Vietnam specifically to contain China.

00:12:29.000 We should note here. He that's why he's there.

00:12:34.000 Biden said at a news conference, today we can trace a 50-year arc of progress in the relationship between our nations from conflict to normalization.

00:12:41.000 He was talking to the General Secretary of the Communist Party in Vietnam.

00:12:45.000 He says, this is a new elevated status that will be a force for prosperity and security in one of the most consequential regions in the world.

00:12:49.000 There's only one problem, of course, which is that Vietnam is also aligned with the Russians.

00:12:54.000 Literally over the weekend, Vietnam is chasing a secret Russian arms deal even as it deepens American ties.

00:13:00.000 In order for America to have a big umbrella, America has to have a very strong umbrella.

00:13:03.000 That strong umbrella has to include things like making sure that if we think that Vietnam is actually going to be weaponized against China, it doesn't buy its weapons from the Russians, who are allies of the Chinese.

00:13:16.000 All this would be a lot less complicated if the United States actually took a muscular approach to the world.

00:13:20.000 But Joe Biden doesn't have a muscular approach to the world.

00:13:21.000 He says he does, but then he doesn't fill in the gaps.

00:13:24.000 This is also true when it comes to Ukraine.

00:13:26.000 We'll get to that in one second.

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00:14:33.000 Okay, so when it comes to Joe Biden's foreign policy confusion and mixed signals, the same thing holds true with regards to Ukraine.

00:14:38.000 So just to spell out what the United States should be doing in Ukraine, it has been perfectly obvious since nearly the beginning of the war that this thing was going to end in a stalemate.

00:14:47.000 Because it was going to end in a stalemate, it made a lot of sense for the United States to basically go to the Russians and say, you're going to keep Crimea, you're going to keep parts of the Donbass, we're going to give security guarantees to Ukraine, and everybody's going to go back to status quo ante.

00:15:01.000 That was always what the deal should have been.

00:15:03.000 It was always what the deal was going to be.

00:15:06.000 The United States does have an interest in degrading the Russian military.

00:15:09.000 And the truth is, the money that we've spent in Ukraine, contra public opinion, that money has actually been money fairly well spent.

00:15:15.000 We've degraded the Russian military dramatically.

00:15:16.000 They no longer have the capacity to cross other countries' borders.

00:15:19.000 Their threat to NATO has been tremendously mitigated, which is good for our allies in the region.

00:15:23.000 And by the way, a lot of the money that we've spent is in fact coming back to us, because proof of the use of those weapons on the battlefield means, for example, that over the weekend, Poland announced that it was going to spend about $10 billion in terms of buying American military armament.

00:15:35.000 All of that can be true and still there needs to be an off-ramp here because hundreds of thousands of people are dying in a war and the borders aren't moving very much.

00:15:43.000 And everybody keeps talking about a Ukrainian breakthrough.

00:15:44.000 Okay, when it happens then I'll believe it.

00:15:47.000 But basically you have two choices.

00:15:48.000 One is you arm the Ukrainians to the point where they are capable of actually defeating the Russians throughout Ukraine. 0.87

00:15:56.000 Which would mean presumably giving them things like F-16s.

00:15:59.000 Or you're not going to do that, in which case you should be looking to cut some sort of deal.

00:16:03.000 But instead, the United States and its allies have cut sort of this halfway measure where they say, Zelensky is going to lead the negotiations, which means no peace because Zelensky is incentivized by his people, correctly so, not to give back an inch of land.

00:16:15.000 And meanwhile, the Russians have no incentive to leave because they're not being physically forced out of Donbass or Crimea.

00:16:21.000 And what are they going to do?

00:16:22.000 Just retreat for no reason?

00:16:23.000 And so this thing is just going to go on and on and on.

00:16:26.000 Meanwhile, the longer it goes on, the less support the United States is going to have for this thing going on for prolonged periods of time.

00:16:33.000 So, Russia, for example, which is part of the G20, they hailed the G20 as a success.

00:16:38.000 According to CNN, Russia on Sunday deemed the G20 summit in India's capital of New Delhi an unconditional success, a day after the meeting's final declaration stopped short of explicitly condemning its invasion of Ukraine.

00:16:48.000 Speaking at a press conference at the end of the summit, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the summit was a success not just for India, but for all of us.

00:16:54.000 The final group statement said, quote, all states must refrain from the threat or use of force to seek territorial acquisition, but it didn't single out Russia.

00:17:01.000 The statement acknowledged, quote, there were different views and assessments of the situation.

00:17:06.000 Ukraine then criticized the G20's final declaration.

00:17:08.000 Ukraine's foreign ministry spokesperson wrote on Facebook, Ukraine is grateful to its partners who tried to include strong wording in the text.

00:17:14.000 At the same time, the G20 has nothing to be proud of in the fact that Russia's aggression against Ukraine continues.

00:17:19.000 Obviously, the participation of the Ukrainian side would have allowed the participants to better understand the situation.

00:17:24.000 The principle of nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine remains as key as ever. 0.88

00:17:28.000 Meanwhile, Antony Blinken is trying to pretend that this watered-down statement is actually something positive and good.

00:17:33.000 Here's Antony Blinken trying to explain this to Jake Tapper.

00:17:36.000 That is significantly weaker language than last year's joint statement, which called for Russia's, quote, complete and unconditional withdrawal, unquote, from Ukraine.

00:17:47.000 agree to a watered-down declaration that does not even condemn Russia by name or explicitly call for Russia to leave Ukraine?

00:17:47.000 Why did the U.S.

00:17:59.000 Jake, the G20 countries in this statement all stood up for the importance of territorial integrity, sovereignty, and that's very clear.

00:18:08.000 I was in the room when all the leaders spoke today with President Biden, and it was very clear from everything that they said.

00:18:15.000 Uh, that, uh, not only do they want to see this war end, but they want to see it end on just and durable terms.

00:18:20.000 And it was also very clear that the consequences of Russia's aggression are being felt throughout, uh, the G20 countries and throughout the developing world.

00:18:31.000 Okay, this is all a mess.

00:18:33.000 And it's a mess because this administration is extremely messy.

00:18:33.000 It's all a mess.

00:18:37.000 When it comes to China, are they aggressive or are they conciliatory?

00:18:40.000 When it comes to Russia, are they aggressive or are they weak?

00:18:43.000 What exactly is it they're attempting to do?

00:18:45.000 Nobody can actually explain what they want the final product to look like.

00:18:50.000 When it came to Ronald Reagan's approach to the Soviet Union, his approach was very simple.

00:18:54.000 We win, they lose.

00:18:55.000 Now, there could be negotiation within that framework, but the framework was, you are our enemy.

00:19:00.000 And we are going to aggressively confront you in this sphere until you bend.

00:19:04.000 When it comes to China, we refuse to take that view because, again, we've integrated our economy with theirs, which is one of the world's worst measures. 1.00

00:19:12.000 By the way, you can actually understand why we were doing that from the 70s up through 89.

00:19:15.000 But after Tiananmen Square, there was no excuse whatsoever for the West trying to integrate its economy with China.

00:19:21.000 The economic liberalization of China, which was partial in the extreme, never amounted to political liberalization of China.

00:19:28.000 And meanwhile, with regard to Russia, we're sending mixed signals as well.

00:19:30.000 So on the one hand, we're not providing Ukraine the support necessary to actually win in Ukraine, but at the same time, we're telling them, you're leading the negotiations.

00:19:38.000 So, interminable war.

00:19:40.000 That is what all of this means.

00:19:41.000 And the longer this goes on, it doesn't favor democracies, by the way.

00:19:44.000 Autocracies are favored by long wars. 0.78

00:19:47.000 Why?

00:19:47.000 Well, because very often when it comes to long wars as we've seen in Afghanistan or Iraq, democracies lose faith in these wars.

00:19:53.000 They don't like them.

00:19:54.000 Democracies, you wake them up and we get really tough and we get really big and really strong very quickly.

00:20:00.000 And then we mash you.

00:20:01.000 But if we don't mash you pretty fast, And autocrat can outlive you because he's not changing administration.

00:20:07.000 All it takes for American foreign policy to swivel on a dime is a new election.

00:20:10.000 Everyone knows this.

00:20:11.000 And so it's just a matter of outlasting the other guy, whether you're talking about Vietnam, Iraq, or Afghanistan.

00:20:15.000 The only wars America wins successfully are wars that are pursued in very short order with very clear objectives.

00:20:22.000 And where you use the amount of force necessary to achieve that objective.

00:20:24.000 Those are the only wars America wins.

00:20:26.000 And those are also the only wars America prevents.

00:20:28.000 It's where we make clear to everybody, if you cross X line, we will smack you so hard, you will be living in the Stone Age. 0.92

00:20:34.000 And then you can negotiate within that framework.

00:20:37.000 But we're not going to even come close to that line. 0.98

00:20:38.000 If you come close to that line, we're going to knock your head off.

00:20:42.000 Diplomacy is always the velvet glove, but if there's no iron fist inside the velvet glove, what does it matter?

00:20:47.000 And when you're vacillating, and when you're wavering, when you're being deliberately unclear, or maybe not deliberately unclear, what exactly is everyone supposed to take away from your behavior?

00:20:55.000 In just one second, we'll get to the area where Joe Biden believes he actually does have international unity and international leadership.

00:21:00.000 First, how often do you pray?

00:21:02.000 Well, the answer is probably not often enough.

00:21:04.000 So, I'm an Orthodox Jew.

00:21:06.000 That means that I pray three times a day.

00:21:08.000 When it comes to the big holidays coming up, it's gonna be more than three times a day.

00:21:12.000 Honestly, without the prayer, my day would be pretty unlivable because you need to commune with the divine to give you a sense of purpose, to give you a sense of comfort, and all the rest.

00:21:19.000 Well, if you're having a hard time with that, or regardless of your religious practice, if you actually want to make it better, Well, Halo can help you.

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00:22:02.000 try HALO for three months free at halo.com slash Shapiro.

00:22:04.000 That's halo.com slash Shapiro.

00:22:07.000 Okay, so when it comes to the thing that Joe Biden believes he has unity on,

00:22:12.000 it of course is not Ukraine, it of course is not China, he thinks that he can create global leadership

00:22:16.000 on global warming.

00:22:17.000 Well, this is always nonsense.

00:22:19.000 Whenever somebody says that they're going to forge global leadership on global warming, it's absolute nonsense.

00:22:23.000 It is a toss-away line to the left.

00:22:25.000 China ain't participating.

00:22:27.000 Russia ain't participating.

00:22:28.000 India ain't participating. 0.83

00:22:29.000 And guess what?

00:22:30.000 So long as they are pumping carbon into the atmosphere, we've been lowering our carbon emissions.

00:22:36.000 And they're gonna keep increasing them because they're in competition with us.

00:22:39.000 This notion of global cooperation against a force like global warming, it's not going to happen.

00:22:46.000 And so who is Joe Biden speaking to when he says things like global warming is an existential risk?

00:22:50.000 Who's he talking to?

00:22:52.000 It's a convenient way of him bashing his domestic political opponents because he's not going to say this directly to the Chinese.

00:22:57.000 The Chinese will just lie and continue doing what they're doing. 1.00

00:22:59.000 Here was Joe Biden talking about global warming over in Vietnam.

00:23:02.000 The only existential threat humanity faces, even more frightening than a nuclear war, is global warming going above 1.5 degrees in the next 20, 10 years.

00:23:16.000 And we're in real trouble.

00:23:18.000 There's no way back.

00:23:21.000 Again, when you are in doubt and you have nothing else left to go to if you are on the left, the place that you go is global warming because it is an unbeatable enemy.

00:23:29.000 And the real enemy that you're attempting to beat is your political domestic opponent, which is why Joe Biden, again, he's so out of it.

00:23:36.000 He's so out of it.

00:23:36.000 So yesterday, he was, again, going off on what he called climate deniers.

00:23:41.000 And he again brings up this lying dog-faced pony soldier routine.

00:23:44.000 Dude, get a new frame of reference.

00:23:46.000 I mean, it's amazing, this is the same party where it's like, our foreign policy isn't stuck in the 1980s, your president is stuck in the 1880s.

00:23:52.000 Here we go.

00:23:54.000 The Union Soul is basically saying, the Indians, come with me, we'll take care of you, everything will be good.

00:24:00.000 And the Indian scout, the Indian looks at John Wayne and points to the Union Soul and says, he's a lion dog-faced pony soldier. 0.99

00:24:09.000 Well, there's a lot of lion-dog-faced pony soldiers out there about global warming.

00:24:14.000 But not anymore.

00:24:15.000 All of a sudden, they all realize that it's a problem.

00:24:21.000 What is this creepy old man whispering about?

00:24:24.000 What is he even talking about?

00:24:25.000 By the way, this is not, in fact, from a John Wayne movie.

00:24:30.000 It's from apparently a Tyrone Power flick called Pony Soldier from 1952.

00:24:34.000 Which, if your frame of reference is 1952, you shouldn't be president anymore.

00:24:39.000 Just gonna point that out to you.

00:24:41.000 Like, 1952 was seven years after the end of World War II.

00:24:46.000 Okay, I was personally born 32 years after this movie came out that he's currently referencing.

00:24:51.000 And it's not because he liked to watch oldies.

00:24:53.000 It's because he watched this in the theaters.

00:24:56.000 I'm not kidding.

00:24:57.000 Joe Biden was born in the year 1942.

00:25:01.000 He was 10 when Pony Soldier came out.

00:25:04.000 He actually watched this with his family, I'm sure, in the theater in Scranton, Pennsylvania in 1952.

00:25:11.000 Joe- This is how crazy this is.

00:25:14.000 I'm 39 years old, okay?

00:25:15.000 Joe Bi- Like, simple math would suggest.

00:25:17.000 Joe Biden- I was born in 1984.

00:25:19.000 Joe Biden was born 42 years before I was born.

00:25:23.000 42 years!

00:25:25.000 That is two generations before I was born, and he is still the president.

00:25:28.000 This entire generation needs to leave the political stage. 0.83

00:25:31.000 Go.

00:25:32.000 Go.

00:25:32.000 Enjoy the rest of your retirement.

00:25:34.000 Please.

00:25:36.000 But of course, the idea that all of his political opponents are the root of all evil because they're quote-unquote climate deniers.

00:25:41.000 You know what I noticed?

00:25:41.000 I noticed that the climate deniers in the United States are not, in fact, the problem.

00:25:45.000 What I noticed is that it's the regime in China that actually is the problem. 0.99

00:25:47.000 You don't have the balls to stand up to those people. 0.98

00:25:49.000 So instead, what are you doing? 0.99

00:25:50.000 You're trying to cram it down on Americans for no apparent reason.

00:25:53.000 Which, by the way, is going to end with more economic turmoil.

00:25:56.000 As Fox News reports, President Joe Biden's administration finalized plans for a program it argues will further reduce air pollution from heavy-duty engines and vehicles across the United States.

00:26:05.000 Truckers argue that the proposed standards will crush the supply chain and put the American food supply at risk.

00:26:11.000 The new emission standards put forth by the EPA are significantly more stringent.

00:26:14.000 They cover a wider range of heavy-duty engine operating conditions compared to previous standards.

00:26:18.000 The rule officially went into effect March 27th of this year.

00:26:21.000 It's going to be implemented for new trucks sold after 2027.

00:26:25.000 But truckers are saying that the new energy standards are going to make it way, way, way more expensive to ship all of your foods.

00:26:30.000 You like Biden inflation?

00:26:32.000 Wait for Biden environmental inflation.

00:26:33.000 Here's trucker Mike Kucharski talking about Biden's EPA regulations.

00:26:39.000 My concern is if this technology fails, the entire supply chain will be dead in the water.

00:26:45.000 And failure is not merely inconvenient.

00:26:47.000 It's catastrophic.

00:26:48.000 It's catastrophic.

00:26:49.000 This is not an option, especially for the food supply chain of America.

00:26:53.000 These changes were also made without checking the supply chain challenges that we have.

00:27:01.000 They just decided without, you know, consulting with the truckers or the supply chain.

00:27:06.000 The supply chain has a safety stock, but the rule's always been, especially with food, you know, the less stock, the less of No, the more profit they make.

00:27:17.000 So the food supply stock is super thin.

00:27:21.000 To give you an idea, if all the trucks stopped in America, we would run out of, you know, stores would start running out of food within 48 to 72 hours.

00:27:29.000 48 to 72 hours, it would be very quickly.

00:27:43.000 The American Truck Dealers Association says it's $42,000 per truck.

00:27:45.000 That's insane.

00:27:49.000 Kucharski said a new clean diesel long-haul tractor typically costs in the range of $180,000 to $200,000.

00:27:54.000 A comparable battery electric tractor costs upwards of $480,000.

00:27:58.000 That is a $300,000 upcharge.

00:28:01.000 So while Joe Biden is jabbering to the Vietnamese about how his political opponents at home are climate deniers, he's ready to cram down on you exponentially higher food prices, all to make himself feel better because, again, it's not going to mitigate global warming in any real way.

00:28:15.000 All that global warming is happening right now, if you believe in man-made global warming, thanks to China and India. 0.99

00:28:20.000 Meanwhile, Joe Biden's economy continues to exist right on the threshold of a major, major problem.

00:28:25.000 At the very least, we are now in a period of economic stagnation.

00:28:28.000 You're seeing this in the size of the IPOs that are currently happening.

00:28:31.000 So, initial public offerings are very often a measure of the durability and sort of the explosiveness of the American economy.

00:28:37.000 Well, right now, all of the IPO valuations are dropping.

00:28:40.000 So, Instacart is currently targeting a valuation of roughly $8.6 billion to $9.3 billion in its IPO.

00:28:48.000 In 2021, it was raising money at a $39 billion valuation, Instacart.

00:28:54.000 Now, part of that is because 2020, 2021, a lot of people were buying via Instacart because of COVID and all the rest of this sort of stuff.

00:28:59.000 But part of this is because there's just a lot less loose money lying around.

00:29:03.000 I know a lot of companies have been thinking about IPO-ing and now they're looking at the market and they're saying, I'm not going to IPO.

00:29:08.000 I'm not going to go public because I just can't raise enough money in the public markets to make that worth my while.

00:29:14.000 The company's stock market debut, according to the Wall Street Journal, is a bellwether for the IPO market, muted for much of this year and last.

00:29:19.000 It will be closely watched by investors, bankers, lawyers, and traders.

00:29:22.000 It will follow the highly anticipated offering by British chip designer Arm Ltd, whose shares are expected to debut this week in the biggest U.S.

00:29:28.000 IPO of the year.

00:29:31.000 And again, Instacart is an excellent company, and my wife uses Instacart all the time.

00:29:35.000 The fact that excellent companies are now lowering their IPO expectations by a factor of four over the course of the last two years, that should tell you something about the state of the market.

00:29:44.000 And meanwhile, when it comes to Joe Biden, all the Hunter Biden stuff is still lingering over him.

00:29:48.000 Because the reality is that the Hunter-Joe relationship is extremely corrupt.

00:29:52.000 It's been corrupt for 30 years.

00:29:54.000 There's nothing new under the sun here.

00:29:55.000 The New York Times is already trying its latest cover-up.

00:29:58.000 And it's all about how much Joe Biden loves his son.

00:30:00.000 Just true, so much love.

00:30:01.000 Katie Rogers.

00:30:02.000 Earlier this summer, President Biden was feeling hopeful.

00:30:05.000 His son Hunter's lawyers had struck a plea deal with federal prosecutors on tax and gun charges.

00:30:09.000 It seemed to the president the long legal ordeal would finally be over.

00:30:11.000 But when the agreement collapsed in late July, Mr. Biden, whose public image often belies a more mercurial temperament, was stunned.

00:30:18.000 He plunged into sadness and frustration, according to several people close to him who spoke on condition of anonymity.

00:30:22.000 Since then, his tone in conversations about Hunter has been tinged with a resignation that was not there before, his confidants say.

00:30:29.000 Now, as the Justice Department plans to indict Hunter on gun charge in the coming weeks, White House advisors are preparing for many more months of Republican attacks and the prospect of a criminal trial in the middle of the 2024 presidential campaign.

00:30:39.000 Republicans have cast Hunter's troubles as a stew of nepotism and corruption, which the Biden administration denies.

00:30:45.000 But there's no doubt the Hunter case is a drain politically and emotionally on his father and those who wish to see him reelected.

00:30:50.000 Oh, the sad old man.

00:30:52.000 That's really the story here.

00:30:54.000 It's so sad.

00:30:56.000 He just wanted to be a delightful father.

00:30:58.000 He just wanted to be a loving father, which is why he was sending his son to foreign countries to pick up bags of cash and then getting on the phone with foreign oligarchs in order to help him achieve those bags of cash.

00:31:08.000 According to the New York Times, as his father and brother showed a talent for public service, Hunter envisioned himself as the financier supporting the family business of politics.

00:31:14.000 For a time, it was work that made him proud, because it made him feel needed.

00:31:17.000 Decades later, though, he was known to complain about the responsibility.

00:31:20.000 A person close to Hunter said those complaints were exaggerated, expressed at a time when Hunter was feeling bruised.

00:31:25.000 Of course they're going to say that, because if you point out that Hunter actually texted his own daughter that he pays half of Pop's bills, that sounds a little more corrupt. 0.97

00:31:33.000 The whole thing, of course, this whole article is about how terrible it is for Joe Biden that his son is really so screwed up. 0.65

00:31:40.000 President Biden tries to keep his son close.

00:31:42.000 When Hunter accompanied the president on a trip to Ireland in the spring,

00:31:45.000 he traveled on Air Force One and slept on a cot in his father's hotel room.

00:31:48.000 When Hunter flies to Washington from his home in Malibu, who stays at the White House,

00:31:51.000 sometimes for weeks at a time.

00:31:52.000 I'm like his security blanket, Hunter told The New Yorker.

00:31:56.000 Oh, that's what it is.

00:31:56.000 He just loved his son too much.

00:31:58.000 respect for the bond, but have privately criticized Biden's apparently inability to say no when Hunter sought to pull

00:31:58.000 That's the real story.

00:32:03.000 him into his business dealings. Some allies of the president

00:32:06.000 say his loyalty to his son has resulted in wholly avoidable

00:32:08.000 political distractions. Oh, that's what it is. He just loved his son

00:32:12.000 too much. That's the real story. Okay, by the way, that dog ain't

00:32:16.000 gonna hunt. The corruption of Hunter and Joe is perfectly obvious to everyone, which is why when Joe Biden keeps

00:32:22.000 shuffling away from questions about Hunter, everybody is That's another thing that happened the other day.

00:32:27.000 Here he was in Vietnam shuffling away from the questions once again.

00:32:29.000 Mr. President, are you worried about your son being indicted, Mr. President?

00:32:38.000 There's that guitar music.

00:32:40.000 There's that lounge music.

00:32:43.000 Coming up to shield the old man as he stumbles off the stage.

00:32:47.000 This administration is a disaster area.

00:32:49.000 In just one second, we're going to get to the situation in New Mexico where apparently the governor of New Mexico thinks the Constitution doesn't apply to her. 0.99

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00:33:58.000 Well, meanwhile, apparently the governor of New Mexico is under the weird misimpression that the constitution does not apply in New Mexico.

00:34:04.000 New Mexico governor, Michelle Lujan Grisham, Has now announced that she has issued an emergency order suspending the right to carry firearms in public across Albuquerque and the surrounding county for at least 30 days in response to a spate of gun violence.

00:34:19.000 This is according to the Associated Press.

00:34:21.000 She said she expects legal challenges, but she was compelled to act because of recent shootings, including the death of an 11-year-old boy outside a minor league baseball stadium this week.

00:34:29.000 Lucian Grisham said state police would be responsible for enforcing what amounts to civil violations.

00:34:35.000 But the Albuquerque police chief is already saying, like, I'm not going to enforce that.

00:34:38.000 Like, this is unconstitutional.

00:34:40.000 Here's the New Mexico governor claiming that emergency powers give her the ability to simply suspend constitutional law.

00:34:46.000 You took an oath to the Constitution.

00:34:48.000 Isn't it unconstitutional to say you cannot exercise your carry license?

00:34:54.000 With one exception.

00:34:56.000 And that is, if there's an emergency, and I've declared an emergency for a temporary amount of time, I can invoke additional powers.

00:35:06.000 No constitutional right, in my view, including my oath, is intended to be absolute.

00:35:13.000 There are restrictions on free speech.

00:35:14.000 There are restrictions on my freedoms.

00:35:16.000 In this emergency, this 11-year-old, and all these parents who have lost all these children, they deserve my attention to have the debate about whether or not, in an emergency, we can create a safer environment.

00:35:33.000 Because what about their constitutional rights?

00:35:37.000 So, um, this is, when people say political fascism, this would be it.

00:35:42.000 Okay, when a member of the government simply declares, via emergency order, that they can violate willy-nilly constitutional rights, like full-scale constitutional rights, based on no actual emergency.

00:35:52.000 Okay, we're not talking here about a tornado that's hitting the state.

00:35:55.000 We're not talking here about there's some sort of giant earthquake.

00:35:59.000 There's no emergency here.

00:36:00.000 This is just her saying, I don't like that people got shot.

00:36:03.000 Therefore, I'm banning you from exercising your constitutional rights.

00:36:06.000 You could do this for anything.

00:36:08.000 She could say, listen, we have a national epidemic of hate.

00:36:10.000 You've seen this, by the way, in places like Chicago, where the former mayor, Lori Lightfoot, tried to declare that racism was a public health emergency. 1.00

00:36:17.000 You could see somebody like this idiot governor saying, racism, hate, they're a public health emergency, and I'm declaring an emergency. 0.99

00:36:24.000 Therefore, you are not allowed to say the following words in my state, and then just list them off. 1.00

00:36:30.000 That'd be a pretty significant First Amendment violation.

00:36:33.000 Or she could go even further, presumably.

00:36:34.000 She could just say, you're not allowed to use the internet because the internet obviously has facilitated so much violence.

00:36:39.000 So you're just not allowed to use it anymore.

00:36:41.000 I've decided in my state that you're not allowed to use that.

00:36:44.000 Not on the basis of any sort of elected legislative session, but on the basis of her own judgment that an emergency has now been constituted because she doesn't like the thing that's happening.

00:36:53.000 Well, if all of your rights are simply dependent on one lady deciding that she really doesn't like the things that are happening in the world, That is tyranny. 0.99

00:37:00.000 That is the essence of tyranny.

00:37:01.000 And it's amazing that you would try this, but it was always going to happen.

00:37:04.000 I mean, the minute that we shut down everything in the world for COVID, and then we maintained that for two years, even as the data emerged that it actually wasn't the sort of national emergency that was being suggested, it was only a matter of time before Democratic officials tried to do something like this.

00:37:17.000 It really was.

00:37:19.000 By the way, I'm going to say something I almost never say, which is, points to Ted Lieu.

00:37:25.000 Ted Lieu, I mean, again, credit where credit is due, Ted Lieu said, I support gun safety laws.

00:37:31.000 However, this order from the governor of New Mexico violates the US Constitution.

00:37:34.000 No state in the union can suspend the federal constitution.

00:37:36.000 There is no such thing as a state public health emergency exception to the United States Constitution.

00:37:41.000 I mean, that's a welcome change. 0.98

00:37:44.000 And then even David Hogg, who is one of the world's larger idiots, and got into Harvard University on the basis of his movement about gun control. 0.92

00:37:53.000 Even David Hogg, who's been wrong about nearly everything, ever, he says, I support gun safety, but there is no such thing as a state public health emergency exception to the U.S. 0.98

00:38:00.000 Constitution.

00:38:01.000 That, good.

00:38:04.000 Good.

00:38:04.000 I mean, I'm glad that they're starting to realize that.

00:38:07.000 Now we'll see how broadly they apply it.

00:38:08.000 Because again, if this is the new way that Democrats make law, then you could do it on the basis of anything.

00:38:13.000 Joe Biden and the rest of the Democrats have declared that climate change is the greatest emergency facing humanity, period.

00:38:19.000 It's greater than COVID, than nuclear war, than anything.

00:38:22.000 The greatest emergency facing humanity is, according to them, that the planet is getting warmer by a few degrees.

00:38:27.000 And thus, what couldn't they justify in the name of all of this?

00:38:31.000 Well, the New Mexican governor, Lujan Grisham, she is saying that violators could face civil penalties and a fine of up to $5,000.

00:38:38.000 Under the order, residents can still transport guns to some private locations, like a gun range or a gun store, but the firearm has to have a trigger lock or some other container or mechanism, making it impossible to discharge.

00:38:50.000 There is no way this remotely stands up in court.

00:38:52.000 There's just no way.

00:38:55.000 It remains amazing to me that the same people who declare that rule of law is deeply important to them, many of them are going to ignore this and look the other way and pretend that it doesn't matter.

00:39:02.000 That January 6th was an assault on the rule of law, that it overthrew constitutional norms.

00:39:06.000 Well, I mean, how about just ignoring the Constitution entirely as the New Mexican governor is doing pretty amazing stuff over there.

00:39:12.000 Okay, meanwhile, Donald Trump was in Iowa back to the horse race.

00:39:15.000 So Donald Trump was over in Iowa over the weekend, so was Ron DeSantis.

00:39:19.000 And it was sort of mixed reactions, I would say.

00:39:22.000 So Trump visited an Iowa frat.

00:39:24.000 The frat was naturally quite warm to him.

00:39:26.000 Here's some of the video.

00:39:28.000 Oh, baby! 0.96

00:39:30.000 Woo! 0.99

00:39:46.000 Got some excited college students over there for him.

00:39:48.000 Hey, how you doing, pal?

00:39:49.000 President Trump.

00:39:50.000 I'm doing good.

00:39:51.000 What do you think about this?

00:39:52.000 This is some turnout.

00:39:55.000 I guess the youth likes Trump, but we love Iowa.

00:39:58.000 We just left South Dakota last night.

00:39:59.000 It was an amazing evening.

00:40:01.000 We got a wonderful endorsement, as you know, from the governor, and we're here, and this reception's been incredible.

00:40:06.000 He's gonna go over to the barbecue pit, throw a couple burgers on it, it looks like.

00:40:11.000 I don't know if, Cory, have you got a good shot of that?

00:40:17.000 That's a nice one.

00:40:21.000 Wow, Trump's doing some retail politics, which, you know, good for him.

00:40:25.000 He also went to the Iowa football game, and there was a bit of an online controversy that broke out over whether he was being booed or whether he was being cheered.

00:40:31.000 So here is sort of the raw footage and as you will hear the answer is some of both.

00:40:47.000 This is when he went down into the stands.

00:40:48.000 He spent most of the game not in the stands.

00:40:50.000 He went, he was in sort of a luxury box.

00:40:51.000 People were flipping him off and all the rest of it.

00:40:53.000 But you can see there are a bunch of enthusiastic people there in Iowa as well, which of course is not a shock.

00:40:57.000 He did win Iowa in the last election cycle.

00:40:59.000 The latest polls from Iowa are showing Trump up big time.

00:41:02.000 The Iowa state civics poll that was released Just a few days ago, has Trump up 37 points over the rest of the field?

00:41:09.000 The NBC News Des Moines Register poll has Trump up 23 points over the rest of the field in Iowa.

00:41:14.000 Now, Iowa is notoriously fickle.

00:41:16.000 You'll recall that very rarely has the Iowa caucus winner actually been the person who went on to win the nomination.

00:41:21.000 In fact, the last time that an Iowa caucus winner in the Republican Party went on to win the nomination was 2000, when George W. Bush narrowly defeated Steve Forbes 41-31.

00:41:29.000 In 2012, it was Rick Santorum, who of course was not the nominee.

00:41:32.000 In 2016, it was Ted Cruz, who of course was not the nominee.

00:41:35.000 So, you know, what happens in Iowa?

00:41:37.000 Trump is more vulnerable in Iowa, but it's not going to be enough for anyone to defeat him in Iowa.

00:41:41.000 Maybe that creates the impression that the God bleeds a little bit, but that's really not where all of the heavy lifting is going to be done.

00:41:46.000 The same thing, by the way, is true in New Hampshire.

00:41:49.000 So New Hampshire also has a spotty history of actually nominating presidents.

00:41:52.000 So in 1996, Pat Buchanan, you'll remember, won the New Hampshire primary.

00:41:56.000 And he didn't end up winning the nomination.

00:41:57.000 Bob Dole ended up winning the nomination.

00:41:59.000 In 2000, John McCain won the New Hampshire primary, throwing a scare into George W. Bush.

00:42:03.000 In 2008, McCain, who's very popular in New Hampshire, won.

00:42:06.000 Mitt Romney did win in 2012, and Trump won in 2016.

00:42:09.000 But it's a bit of a spotty record in New Hampshire.

00:42:12.000 If somebody wins Iowa and New Hampshire, that's going to throw a scare into Donald Trump.

00:42:15.000 But really, Trump's last stand, if he were to show any vulnerability, and right now this is all speculative considering he's leading by leaps and bounds in both of those states, Would be South Carolina.

00:42:24.000 South Carolina has been entirely predictive of the Republican nominee every year but 2012.

00:42:29.000 So in 2008, it was McCain.

00:42:30.000 In 2000, it was George W. Bush.

00:42:31.000 In 1996, it was Dole.

00:42:32.000 In 1988, it was George H. W. Bush.

00:42:33.000 In 1980, it was Reagan.

00:42:37.000 So, again, right now, it's kind of a moot point because Trump is leading in all of those states.

00:42:42.000 With that said, if he is going to show vulnerability, obviously the place you're going to first see it, not only in terms of calendars, but in terms of polls, is going to be Iowa, where other candidates are spending an awful lot of time.

00:42:53.000 Speaking of the Republican hopes in 2024, according to Nate Cohn over at the New York Times, one of the problems for Republicans is that the supposed electoral college advantage that Republicans enjoy, which is the way that they've won a few presidential elections, 2016, 2000, those electoral college advantages, meaning that there are certain states where by winning a slight majority, they're able to pull off a narrow victory.

00:43:17.000 That seems to be disappearing.

00:43:19.000 According to Nate Cohn of the New York Times, He says it's a reasonable question.

00:43:22.000 It's one I see quite often.

00:43:23.000 In his first two presidential campaigns, Trump fared far better in the battleground states than he did nationwide.

00:43:26.000 electoral college. He says it's a reasonable question, it's one I see quite often. In his

00:43:29.000 first two presidential campaigns, Trump fared far better in the battleground states than

00:43:33.000 he did nationwide. But there's a case that the electoral college advantage has faded.

00:43:37.000 In the midterm elections last fall, Democrats fared about the same in the crucial battleground

00:43:40.000 states as they did nationwide.

00:43:42.000 Over the last year, state polls and a compilation of New York Times' Siena College surveys have shown Biden running as well or better in the battlegrounds as as nationwide, with the results by state broadly mirroring the midterms.

00:43:51.000 In other words, the purple states are getting more purple.

00:43:55.000 It's not that purple states are red and blue states are more blue, which is how you actually win these narrow elections.

00:43:59.000 It's that purple states are getting more purple to blue, and that red states are just getting more red.

00:44:04.000 So that is a bit of a problem.

00:44:06.000 Again, when you look at the battleground states, they voted more similarly to the United States in general in 2022 than they did back in 2020.

00:44:16.000 So for example, in Wisconsin in 2020, overall, they voted at a D plus five rate in the 2020 election.

00:44:28.000 And then in the House vote, they voted almost even, Republicans and Democrats.

00:44:32.000 So the popular vote did not reflect exactly the sort of electoral vote.

00:44:36.000 But that gap is basically shrinking now.

00:44:38.000 And you're starting to see that over and over and over.

00:44:40.000 The gap is shrinking.

00:44:41.000 That's a real problem for Republicans.

00:44:44.000 As he points out, Democrats held their ground in battleground states, allowing them to retain the Senate and nearly hold the House.

00:44:48.000 Nationally, Republican House candidates won the most votes by about two percentage points.

00:44:52.000 The margin was almost identical in the presidential battlegrounds, like Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where Republican House candidates also won by a couple of points.

00:44:59.000 So in other words, sort of the national numbers are more reflective, are more reflected now in the battleground states.

00:45:03.000 That's not something that's going to help Trump, obviously.

00:45:05.000 Now, it's possible that could be false, but you're banking against whatever numbers you have.

00:45:12.000 I'll say it again.

00:45:13.000 It is certainly possible that all the numbers are wrong and that they're off.

00:45:16.000 It's also possible that they're not.

00:45:18.000 And so it is worthwhile taking all of that into consideration.

00:45:21.000 I've been looking at a lot of the polls recently and some of the polls that are very positive toward Republican contenders are relying on a couple of things that I think are very likely to not materialize during the actual election.

00:45:30.000 One is minority voters coming in at 54-38, for example, for Biden.

00:45:36.000 Republicans are considering that means, hey, look, that means Biden is gonna win only 54% of the vote.

00:45:40.000 No, what it means is Republicans are only gonna win 38% of the vote.

00:45:43.000 The ceiling on Republican support is in that poll.

00:45:46.000 It is not that the rest of that support is going to go to Republicans.

00:45:49.000 Or even that's gonna split evenly.

00:45:51.000 Because, remember, once again, 54 plus 38 is 92.

00:45:56.000 That's 8% of the vote still outstanding.

00:45:57.000 That's not gonna split 4-4 Republican-Democrat.

00:46:01.000 Which means that the gap is gonna be much larger.

00:46:03.000 The other gap that I think is gonna be Much rectified is a lot of these polls right now are rooted in lack of Democratic enthusiasm.

00:46:13.000 That's true, because they're very unenthusiastic about Joe Biden.

00:46:16.000 It is also true that once Donald Trump is on the ballot, after we've had 12 months of coverage of his supposed criminal foibles, Democrats are going to crawl over broken glass to vote against Trump.

00:46:25.000 He gets out turnout for Democrats, he gets out turnout for Republicans.

00:46:25.000 That's just a reality.

00:46:28.000 Ideally, if you're a Republican, what you want is to lower turnout for Democrats and increase turnout for yourself.

00:46:33.000 Donald Trump increases turnout for both.

00:46:36.000 So, right now, for example, the recent CNN poll that showed Trump and Biden dead even had the Democratic enthusiasm at 61% and the Republican enthusiasm at 71%.

00:46:46.000 I do not think that maintains for the entirety of the election cycle.

00:46:49.000 Okay, time for some things I like and then some things that I hate.

00:46:51.000 So, things I like.

00:46:53.000 Over the weekend, I read Lionel Shriver's new novel, Should We Stay or Should We Go?

00:46:56.000 Lionel Shriver is one of the best living novelists.

00:46:58.000 She's really terrific.

00:46:59.000 A lot of her work is excellent.

00:47:00.000 She's most famous, probably, for her book that was made into a movie of the same name, starring Tilda Swinton.

00:47:09.000 We need to talk about Kevin.

00:47:11.000 This one, should we stay or should we go?

00:47:13.000 The premise is there is a couple at 51 and the woman's dad has died of Alzheimer's.

00:47:19.000 And it talks about how much they suffered during his last years because it's very difficult to care for a parent with Alzheimer's.

00:47:23.000 And so she and her husband make a pact that on their 80th birthday, they're going to commit suicide together.

00:47:30.000 And very, very dark sort of premise.

00:47:32.000 But then what the book does is in various chapters it sort of spells out iterations of what happens next.

00:47:37.000 They hit 80.

00:47:38.000 Do they decide to do it?

00:47:38.000 Do they decide not to do it?

00:47:39.000 Does one decide to do it and the other decides not to?

00:47:42.000 What happens if there is some sort of magical medicine that is created that reverses aging and how does that impact life?

00:47:48.000 It's a wildly creative and really interesting book and is all rooted in the secular modern notion that the only thing that matters on this planet is sort of the life you have on this planet.

00:48:01.000 In other words, higher purpose can only be divine by you.

00:48:04.000 It's only something that is internal to you.

00:48:07.000 And you can see how that doesn't work out to really any advantage throughout the course of the book.

00:48:13.000 Like the one chapter that Lionel Shriver didn't write, because Lionel Shriver isn't a religious person.

00:48:17.000 She's quasi-conservative on a bunch of issues, but she's not a religious person.

00:48:21.000 Lionel Shriver never writes the chapter where the couple actually finds religion.

00:48:26.000 How does that impact their decision-making process?

00:48:29.000 But it is a fascinating book, and it spells out a lot of these sort of qualms that secular modernism faces.

00:48:34.000 Okay, other things that I like.

00:48:36.000 Jokovic, Novak Jokovic, the tennis player, he is the greatest of all time, there's no question.

00:48:41.000 It is not just that he is an amazingly skilled player.

00:48:45.000 You can make a case that Roger Federer was a more skilled player in a lot of ways than Novak Jokovic.

00:48:49.000 But, Novak Jokovic is the most determined player I've ever seen maybe in any sport.

00:48:53.000 He has like Jordan-esque levels of determination.

00:48:55.000 There's an amazing thing that he does, if you watch his matches, where there comes a point where he almost just hones in and he's like, I'm just done here.

00:49:02.000 I'm not going to allow the other person to win.

00:49:04.000 So he won his 24th major at the US Open over the weekend.

00:49:08.000 It was an incredible thing.

00:49:10.000 Novak Djokovic, that guy would have at least another three majors were not for the fact that he was banned from participating in majors for about a year and a half for not taking the VACs.

00:49:19.000 And why should he have taken the VACs?

00:49:20.000 He's 36 years old and he's in the best shape of any living human being.

00:49:24.000 It's absurd to think that he was going to be killed or significantly injured by COVID. 0.95

00:49:28.000 It's a ridiculous thing. 0.91

00:49:30.000 So he didn't. 0.53

00:49:31.000 He remains in excellent shape.

00:49:33.000 And at the age of 36, he's beating guys who are almost literally half his age.

00:49:37.000 He won last night over Danil Medvedev, who he beat in a couple other majors in the recent

00:49:43.000 past.

00:49:44.000 6-3, 7-6, 6-3.

00:49:45.000 Here's a little bit of the footage.

00:49:48.000 Oh boy.

00:49:50.000 Well, we'll take you to the dirtiest shot of the day.

00:49:54.000 And it was...

00:49:55.000 saving the match point to get to number 20.

00:49:59.000 There were a lot of shots that were highly impactful.

00:50:03.000 Here's the final one.

00:50:07.000 I love that there's a Moderna shot of the day for the unvaxxed Novak Djokovic.

00:50:13.000 That is an amazing thing.

00:50:15.000 Moderna shot of the day.

00:50:17.000 Brassi by Moderna.

00:50:19.000 Ugh, so good. 0.98

00:50:20.000 So ridiculous. 0.81

00:50:22.000 Well done to Novak Djokovic and this is not going to be his last major.

00:50:25.000 That dude's going to win probably another 4 or 5.

00:50:26.000 He is just that good.

00:50:29.000 Unless his body breaks down.

00:50:31.000 Alrighty, one thing I hate today.

00:50:37.000 So, obviously, the situation in Morocco is terrible.

00:50:41.000 For those who haven't been following, there was a very, very large earthquake, a 6.8 magnitude earthquake in Morocco.

00:50:46.000 At least 2,000 people have died.

00:50:48.000 More than 2,400 have been injured.

00:50:50.000 Three days of mourning have been declared nationwide, according to the Washington Post.

00:50:55.000 The buildings basically all just collapsed.

00:50:57.000 In the small town of Amismiz, buildings were still collapsing on Sunday afternoon, nearly 40 hours removed from the Friday night quake.

00:51:03.000 And one home traces of its former inhabitants, according to the Washington Post, could be glimpsed in the ruins of a second floor ceiling, velveteen blankets, suitcases, rugs, a sagging mattress.

00:51:10.000 Survivors had moved to higher ground, pitching tents on stretches of flat, dry land.

00:51:14.000 Eight is trickling in, but it is a full-on disaster area, obviously.

00:51:20.000 It is a good reminder that we are extraordinarily privileged to live in a first world country.

00:51:25.000 Living in an extraordinarily wealthy country means that when a disaster hits, very few people die.

00:51:31.000 I remember being in California during the Northridge earthquake.

00:51:34.000 And the Northridge earthquake of 1994 was a large earthquake.

00:51:37.000 That was a 6.7, right?

00:51:38.000 So this one is 6.8, slightly larger than the Northridge earthquake.

00:51:41.000 It was frightening.

00:51:43.000 The total death toll was 57.

00:51:46.000 And that was way back in 1994.

00:51:48.000 That was almost three decades ago at this point.

00:51:51.000 And still, again, that is the privilege of living in a first world country where people 1.00

00:51:56.000 actually build for the possibility of disaster.

00:51:59.000 And it's a reminder that when disaster strikes countries that are much, much poorer, the consequences are much more significant to life and limb.

00:52:05.000 All right, you guys, the rest of the show continues right now.

00:52:07.000 You're not going to want to miss it.

00:52:08.000 We'll jump into the mailbag.

00:52:09.000 If you're not a member, become a member.

00:52:10.000 Use code SHAPIRO at checkout.

00:52:11.000 Get two months free on all annual plans.

The Ben Shapiro Show - September 11, 2023

Is War With China Coming?

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