As voters head to the polls on Tuesday, November 6th, we look forward to what Republicans could do with control of Congress, and celebrities announce they will be leaving social media. Today s show is sponsored by ExpressVPN. Do you like your web history being seen and sold to advertisers? No? Get ExpressVPN right now at expressvpn.me/MeToo and use the promo code SHAPIRO for 50% off your very first month. That s $50 off your first month, plus free shipping on all orders over $99.99. You can also get a free bike or rowing machine with a 24-month membership at Echelon Fitness, where you can work out anytime, day or night, in the comfort and privacy of your very own home. For a limited time, my audience can get a FREE bike or rower. To get your free bike and rower, text BEN to 818181. That's $5 and you ll get $5 off your entire bill. Message and data rates may apply. See terms for details here. Thanks to PureTalk for the discount code SHOPBOARD. . Puretalk is a veteran-owned, proudly American company that doesn t overcharge their customers to keep their customers happy and keeps their bills low. They use the same tower network as one of the big big guys, which means they re not overcharging you to keep you up to date with all the latest technology and services you need to keep up to par with the best in the competition. Puretalk has the latest and the latest in the best! and the best of the best, you can get the most out of what you can do online. in the latest episode of The Bench Bureau Show. Ben Shapiro and I discuss all things you can t live up to your best in your day to day life! . Thank you for listening, Ben Shapiro Tweet Me Neither Slash Me Neither? Timestamps: 5:00 - What do you think of MeToo? 6:30 - What are you looking for in 2020? 7: Should I vote for MeToo or Not? 8:40 - Who are you would you like to vote for President in 2020 or Not So Good? 9: What s your favorite presidential candidate? 11:15 - Who do you want to win in 2020 and what do you care about? 16:00 17:20 - Is there a better country?
00:01:25.000Also, I've been struggling to reach those fitness goals.
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00:02:57.000Henry Olsen over at the Washington Post is suggesting that he believes that the Republicans are going to end up taking 54 seats in the Senate and 246 seats in the House.
00:03:04.000246 seats in the House would be like historic levels of Republican majority.
00:03:10.00054 seats in the Senate would give them not only a solid majority, but the possibility of taking a super majority in 2024.
00:03:15.000Remember that when it comes to the Senate, because only one third of the Senate is up for election every two years, this means that this particular election cycle actually has a bunch of races that do not favor Republicans.
00:03:24.000There are Republican incumbents who are supposed to be vulnerable in places like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
00:03:29.000In Pennsylvania, there wasn't even an incumbent.
00:03:34.000Next time around, there are a lot of vulnerable purple to blue Democratic seats.
00:03:38.000And so if Republicans end up with 54, there is the possibility that in a 2024 wave election for a Republican for president, if Joe Biden is running again, for example, then this would mean that Republicans have the possibility of having a historically large majority in the Senate.
00:03:51.000So when it comes to Senate elections, it's not just about this election.
00:03:55.000The same thing is true in the House of Republicans have a very large majority in the House.
00:03:59.000Then even if they don't do amazing in 2024, they can still maintain their majority in the House.
00:04:03.000So every election is about a little bit more than just that election.
00:04:07.000Henry Olsen says that this election is essentially a referendum on President Biden.
00:04:11.000He says, my predictions are more optimistic for Republicans than most of the other prognosticators.
00:04:15.000The Cook Political Report, for example, predicts the GOP will win between 12 and 25 House seats.
00:04:19.000FiveThirtyEight's model forecasts the Senate as a dead heat.
00:04:22.000Those estimates and other underestimate the effects of a political truism.
00:04:24.000Midterms are always a referendum on the president.
00:04:26.000Biden is a historically unpopular president.
00:04:28.000Compared with every other president since World War II, Biden's job approval rating at this point in his tenure is slightly ahead of the approval of only two presidents, Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump.
00:04:36.000Since Republicans lost 26 House seats in Reagan's first midterm and 40 in Trump's, that does not bode particularly well for Democrats.
00:04:43.000He says another reliable predictor is the generic congressional ballot, which measures which party voters plan to support for House seats without mentioning specific candidates.
00:04:49.000One prominent political science model shows that losing the generic House ballot by six points results in, on average, a loss of 26 seats.
00:04:56.000These two indicators show Democrats are in a deep hole because RealClearPolitics' poll average puts Biden's job approval at 42.3%.
00:05:02.000Even if we round that up to 43% and assume Democrats will exceed that number by two points, as presidential parties did in both 2006 and 2014, Democrats would take only 45% of the national House vote, which would be an awful outcome.
00:05:14.000He says there are 56 House seats seriously in play.
00:05:17.000How many seats are vulnerable to flip?
00:05:18.00014 are Democratic-held seats that Trump won.
00:05:20.000Republicans hold 12 seats that Biden won.
00:05:22.000Democrats hold an additional 24 seats that Biden won by 10 points or less, yielding 50 seats below the line.
00:05:28.000The parties are seriously contesting an additional six seats that Biden won by 10 or more.
00:05:31.000So that means that if you're just looking at Biden plus 10 districts and everything less than that for Democrats, that's 50 seats.
00:05:38.000Midterm history suggests Republicans will win the overwhelming share of these districts.
00:05:41.000During the 2010 GOP wave and the 2018 Democratic tsunami, the party not in control of the White House captured between 70% and 80% of similarly vulnerable seats.
00:05:48.000So Henry Olsen is very bullish on the Republican chances.
00:05:51.000Meanwhile, Larry Sabato over at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia suggests that the Republicans are going to net one seat in the Senate.
00:05:58.000They believe that for some reason they think that Raphael Warnock will go down to Herschel Walker in Georgia and that Dr. Oz will end up winning in Pennsylvania, but that Catherine Cortez Masto will pull out a close race in Nevada.
00:06:11.000I think that is very unlikely to happen.
00:06:13.000I think the Republicans will end up with at least 52.
00:06:22.000I'm going to say the Republicans win 53 to 54 seats here.
00:06:25.000I'm a little more dicey on Balduck just because the polling there, it closed so suddenly and so fast that it's sort of hard to see what's going on in New Hampshire.
00:06:33.000Arizona, I could see Kerry like dragging Blake Masters over the finish line in Arizona.
00:06:37.000Bottom line here is that again, it seems betting markets are now suggesting at a 70% clip that Republicans are going to take the Senate.
00:06:44.000And if you look at the RealClearPolitics poll averages, you can see why.
00:06:47.000Right now in Pennsylvania, Dr. Oz is up 0.4.
00:06:50.000Virtually all of the latest polls have Dr. Oz up in Pennsylvania.
00:06:52.000The question is going to be how much the early voting hurt in Pennsylvania.
00:07:36.000The last four polls in Nevada are Laxalt plus five, Laxalt plus two, Laxalt plus six, Laxalt plus five.
00:07:42.000I think Laxalt takes the Nevada Senate seat.
00:07:45.000And then you see a bunch of seats that were supposed to be vulnerable for Republicans, and they are turning out not to be particularly vulnerable.
00:07:50.000Ron Charlton in Wisconsin would be one of those seats.
00:07:53.000Bud in North Carolina was supposed to be one of those seats.
00:07:56.000Vance in Ohio was supposed to be one of those seats.
00:07:58.000And those races have really, really opened up.
00:08:01.000So right now, if you're a Democrat, you got to be freaking out a little bit.
00:08:05.000Hey, obviously when it comes to the approval rating for Joe Biden, which is very indicative of how parties do in midterm, they're not good.
00:08:25.000These are like, these are hair's breadth, extraordinarily close elections.
00:08:30.000Again, if you look at that RealClearPolitics polling average, you are seeing 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 6 races minimum in the Senate that are within margin of error in the polls.
00:08:41.000So these are really, really tight races, and there are a bunch of House races that are also extremely close.
00:08:47.000There are an extraordinary number of gubernatorial races that are really, really close.
00:08:50.000Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan is up in the RealClearPolitics polling average by 1.1%.
00:08:55.000Very close race in Arizona, where Carrie Lake is up in the Royal Club Politics polling average by three and a half.
00:09:02.000Over in Wisconsin, it's a margin of error race for the Wisconsin governorship.
00:10:14.000Okay, so one of the big problems for Republicans in terms of defining a wave is the fact that Republicans are actually in very strong position in the House going into the election.
00:10:21.000By the way, one way that you can tell that Republicans are about to do very well in a lot of these states is what Donald Trump has been doing at his rallies.
00:10:28.000So remember, Donald Trump Tried to run David Perdue against Brian Kemp in the primaries for governor of Georgia and David Perdue just got walloped.
00:10:35.000And then Donald Trump yelled at Brian Kemp for like several months there about how terrible Brian Kemp was because Donald Trump didn't win Georgia.
00:10:41.000Last night, Donald Trump came out, endorsed Brian Kemp for re-election in Georgia.
00:10:46.000Of course it's going to because Brian Kemp is going to win by a thousand points over Stacey Abrams.
00:10:49.000Okay, so the question becomes what does a red wave look like?
00:10:51.000So there are a few things that are worth noting about the red wave.
00:10:54.000We'll get into the sort of red mirage of all this and how voting procedures work in just a second because there are a lot of people on the right who are very much afraid that they're going to go to bed tonight and it's going to look like a red wave and then tomorrow it's going to look like a red ripple or something because of voting procedures.
00:11:06.000So we'll talk about realistically What voting tabulation looks like in places like Pennsylvania.
00:11:10.000It is pathetic that many states do not count like Florida.
00:11:13.000Florida is going to close and within an hour you're going to have solid results in Florida.
00:11:17.000Because again, all the absentee ballots as they come in are being tabulated.
00:11:21.000Everything is tabulated electronically.
00:11:22.000That means that you get results incredibly fast.
00:11:24.000There's no reason in a civilized country you cannot have results same night.
00:11:27.000But there are procedures in place in these places and a lot of these procedures suck.
00:11:32.000However, one thing that you can watch from the media is that if Republicans come in anywhere below say 40 seats, If they come below 30 seats, then Democrats are going to suggest that it was not a good night for Republicans.
00:11:50.000What this means is that if you look historically at the size of House majorities for Republicans, there have been only four times since World War II and three since 2010.
00:11:59.000But four times since World War II, the Republicans have had over 240 seats in the House.
00:12:05.000They would only have to win about 28 seats to get over 240 seats in the House.
00:12:09.000So you could see Democrats easily saying, well, you only won 28 seats.
00:12:13.000I mean, normally, I mean, look at those stats.
00:12:14.000Normally, when the president's approval rating is at 44%, you're losing 50 seats or 60 seats.
00:12:18.000The answer is Republicans outperformed the president on the ballot in 2020, which means that Republicans have a very narrow minority in the House right now.
00:12:32.000And that means the possibility of them picking up a lot of seats is a lot lower.
00:12:36.000And that means also that it wouldn't take a whole hell of a lot for Republicans to have a historically large majority.
00:12:42.000If the GOP adds 36 seats, which is less than all of those other quote unquote wave elections.
00:12:48.000I remember in 2010, Republicans picked up like 60 seats, but that's because they went into that election in a horrible position in the House.
00:12:55.000If you look historically at the House divisions and you look at 2010, going into the 2010 election, Democrats had 257 seats in the House.
00:13:04.000So when Republicans picked up 60 seats, they ended up at 242.
00:13:08.000In order for Republicans to end up at 242 tonight, all they have to do is pick up 30 seats.
00:13:14.000So the question is not really how many seats you pick up.
00:13:16.000The question is how many seats you end up with.
00:13:19.000If Republicans won 36 seats, this would put them at over 247.
00:13:23.000Republicans would have the largest House majority since 1928 if they pick up 36 seats.
00:13:30.000So when Kevin McCarthy says, and he was kind of mocked for it yesterday, that if the GOP wins 20 seats, it's a red wave, that's not historically inaccurate because that would put the Republicans at 232 seats, which is a very, very solid House majority.
00:13:43.000Realistically, I think that if you want to call it a wave, you have to win over 30.
00:13:46.000If Republicans win over 30, this puts them in like 242 position, which is back in the position they were after the 2010 elections, which was a wave election.
00:13:54.000Here's Kevin McCarthy trying to explain what a red wave constitutes.
00:14:34.00025 seats is sort of a tide, is the best way to think about all of this.
00:14:39.000Okay, now again, one of the big issues here is going to be how the independents go.
00:14:43.000It looks like the independents are going to show up and it looks like they are going to vote.
00:14:47.000Turnout is going to be a big part of this.
00:14:49.000So again, I urge everybody to go out and vote today.
00:14:52.000One of the things that's really fascinating about this particular election is that if it is a red wave election, if Republicans do show really strong in this election, Democrats are going to do what they usually do.
00:15:02.000They're going to blame White racism and the evils of white supremacy and all of the rest of this.
00:15:10.000Because as we talked about yesterday, the Wall Street Journal has a poll showing that the GOP is getting significant ground among black and Latino voters.
00:15:15.000Basically, they're running almost dead even with Latinos, and they're picking up to 17% of the black vote, which is an insane number.
00:15:21.000Democrats typically draw 92, 90 percent of the black vote.
00:15:25.000If Republicans got to 11 percent of the black vote in prior elections, that was a massive win for them.
00:15:29.000If Republicans start clocking in at 15 to 20 percent, Democrats are toast.
00:15:33.000They have a serious problem on their hands.
00:15:35.000And all of this is happening, by the way, amidst a simple fact.
00:15:40.000So what the left would like to suggest is that the country is getting more Republican when it comes to the House and the Senate and maybe the presidency in 2024.
00:15:46.000As America is getting more segregated, more racist, worse.
00:16:12.000What's happening is that white voters are voting kind of typically how they always have, and a lot of minority voters are now living near white voters and not in segregated areas because racism, because white racism, and because of in-group cohesion.
00:16:24.000A lot of these things have declined in the United States, and because of that, people are voting More homogeneously population-wide and more heterogeneously inside their own groups.
00:16:33.000What that means is that you can now look at Latinos and they're voting more divided than they would have before.
00:16:51.000If people stopped voting based on race or ethnicity, and instead started voting based on which policies benefit themselves and their families, that'd be a great thing for the United States.
00:16:59.000It'd be a great thing pretty much everywhere.
00:17:02.000According to the Washington Post, this marks a tectonic shift from just a generation ago.
00:17:06.000Back in 1990, 78% of white people lived in predominantly white neighborhoods, where at least 4 out of every 5 people were also white.
00:17:12.000In the 2020 census that has plunged to 44% only 44% of white Americans live in an area where four out of every five people were also white.
00:17:22.000Large pockets of segregation remain, but as America's white population shrinks for the first time, and Hispanic, Asian, Black, and Native Americans fuel the nation's growth, diverse neighborhoods have expanded from urban cores into suburbs that were once colored by a steady stream of white flight from inner cities.
00:17:35.000Across the 9,700 neighborhoods that became mixed in 2020, white population dropped by about 300,000.
00:17:40.000Meanwhile, the number of Hispanics jumped by 1.5 million, the largest part of a 4.3 million increase in non-whites in those neighborhoods.
00:17:46.000What's amazing about all of this is that it's actually not having the impact that Democrats thought it would have.
00:17:50.000Their suggestion was that as the white population declined in the United States, that the country would become ever more left-wing.
00:17:58.000Instead, it turns out that large swaths of minority voters don't like the woke, equity-based nonsense that Democrats are pushing.
00:18:07.000The Washington Post acknowledges this demographic shift has scrambled the nation's politics, introducing new groups of often left-leaning voters into typically conservative-dominated, white-dominated enclaves, according to Chris Maggio, a sociologist at the University of Illinois at Chicago's Department of Criminology, Law, and Justice.
00:18:21.000Now, he tries to claim that this is what's causing a backlash, but that's not what the stats are showing.
00:18:26.000What it's actually showing is that more Hispanics are voting for Republicans than ever before.
00:18:31.000It's showing that maybe more Blacks are voting for Republicans than at any time since the New Deal, depending on whether these stats come in.
00:19:06.000Some of the places that are the least segregated are the most Republicans, and some of the places that are the most segregated are the least Republican.
00:19:18.000Rhode Island is a very democratic state.
00:19:19.000Only 41% of the population lives in mixed-race neighborhoods.
00:19:23.000Meanwhile, Alabama is deep red, and 58% of the population lives in mixed-race neighborhoods.
00:19:29.000In other words, the lie that Democrats told, which is that as the country becomes more diverse and as everybody starts living together with one another, the country would get more Democrat.
00:19:40.000I mean, what has actually happened is that bad Democratic governance is now hitting everybody across the board to the point that Katy Perry is now endorsing billionaire Democrat Rick Caruso for mayor of L.A.
00:20:51.000So if Representative Don Bacon, who is the Republican in that area, wins, then that would suggest that Republicans are holding even in somewhat strong Democratic areas.
00:21:00.000We'll get to more on this in just one second.
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00:22:03.000Also, as an Orthodox Jew, Israel is obviously a very important topic to me.
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00:23:05.000It's R plus four, according to Cook Political.
00:23:07.000And so if he loses that seat, then that would be an indicator of a red tide.
00:23:13.000If Abigail Spanberger loses in Virginia 7th, and that one should come in fairly early because Virginia is on the East Coast, then that would be a good indicator that Democrats are about to have a terrible night if Abigail Spanberger gets kicked out.
00:23:23.000Because Abigail Spanberger is considered a sort of moderate Democrat in a Biden plus six district.
00:23:29.000And that means that that would be a disaster for the Democrats if Spanberger were to lose.
00:23:36.000Again, Florida results because we count our votes correctly in Florida.
00:23:41.000It is worth watching what happens in Florida.
00:23:42.000If Ron DeSantis walks away with a double-digit victory in Florida, it's going to be a super bad night for Democrats.
00:23:48.000Marco Rubio, right now in the latest election polls, is up anywhere from 6 to 12 points.
00:23:52.000If Marco Rubio comes back at plus 10 over Val Demings, bad night for Democrats is on its way.
00:23:58.000In New York, there are several different races that would be early indicators of whether the Democrats are doing poorly or not, including the governor's race.
00:24:06.000Now, one thing to watch for, the media are, of course, warning of the quote-unquote red mirage.
00:24:14.000It's exaggerated because, again, not every state counts votes late or tabulates in the stupid fashion that Pennsylvania tabulates votes.
00:24:21.000However, it is worth noting that in the 2020 election, Donald Trump declared victory on the night of.
00:24:26.000The votes had not even been fully tallied yet, not even close.
00:24:29.000And so you do have to worry about the late mail-in votes.
00:24:31.000The idea of a red mirage is predicated on the notion that Democrats tend to outweigh Republicans in the mail-in balloting, and that tends to get counted later.
00:24:39.000So it looks as though the early returns day of a Republican and then the mail-in ballots get counted.
00:24:44.000And then that seems to turn things a little bit more Democrat.
00:24:46.000And I think that's a little bit exaggerated this year because the mail-in ballots.
00:24:49.000According to folks who are looking at the stats, the mail-in ballots are not heavily weighing in favor of the Democrats the same way that they did back in 2020.
00:24:55.000A lot of mail-in ballots are being held Republican, so I don't think that the red mirage is going to be as much of a thing.
00:25:00.000But it is worth noting how votes actually get tabulated in Pennsylvania so that you're not surprised by it and you're not taken in by either the left saying that the red mirage is coming or By people who say, election night results are in, it's 9 o'clock eastern time, we know who won, and any change from here on in is obviously voter fraud or people screwing around with the ballots.
00:25:21.000Here is how the voting gets tabulated in Pennsylvania, as sort of an informational note.
00:25:26.000So there's election night reporting in which teams of county election officials begin tabulating all the eligible votes, including mail-in and absentee ballots.
00:25:35.000Because of Act 88, most counties must begin canvassing mail-in and absentee ballots at this time.
00:25:39.000So unlike the state of Florida, which actually starts to tabulate the mail-in and absentee ballots, like in the middle of the day, so that you can actually get the results right away, Pennsylvania has an incredibly dumb rule, which is that you're not allowed to even start tabulating the absentee and mail-in ballots until 8.01, until the polls actually close.
00:25:55.000At 12.01, which is going to be tomorrow morning, counties that received Act 88 funds have to post the unofficial number of absentee ballots and mail-in ballots received.
00:26:03.000That doesn't mean that all of them have to be counted by that time.
00:26:06.000So it's four hours after the polls close in Pennsylvania, and the counties are still tabulating exactly how those ballots went down, but they're giving you a general number of ballots.
00:26:16.000Then the official canvas doesn't happen until November 11th at 9 a.m.
00:26:20.000That's when each county's board of elections has to begin the official canvas and compute the returns of votes cast.
00:26:24.000The canvas has to continue through November 16th to ensure that the tally includes valid military and overseas ballots received by 5 p.m.
00:26:52.000So, I'm laying all of this out to suggest that yes, there will be delays in the process, and yes, it will be annoying, and yes, this all has to get fixed.
00:26:59.000It is not definitive evidence of quote-unquote voter fraud or screwing around with the vote.
00:27:03.000If it takes a while to tabulate the ballots, that's literally how the system works in Pennsylvania.
00:27:08.000Again, that doesn't mean there's no fraud, but you're going to have to show independent evidence of fraud other than it takes a long time to tabulate the ballots.
00:27:13.000That's how their stupid process works in Pennsylvania, which is why they need to fix their dumbass process in Pennsylvania.
00:27:25.000Those are the three states where you tend to have really dumb voting procedures.
00:27:29.000In terms of tabulation, the same way that you do in Pennsylvania.
00:27:32.000Speaking of which, Pennsylvania Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman's U.S.
00:27:35.000Senate campaign filed a lawsuit on Monday against state election officials arguing mail ballots with either an incorrect or a blank date should in fact be counted in Tuesday's election.
00:27:43.000Plaintiffs have now asked a federal judge, according to Daily Wire, to order all mail ballots to be counted regardless of the date voters pen on the envelope.
00:27:50.000The lawsuit comes a week after the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled officials should set aside and not count mail ballots with an incorrect or empty date.
00:27:57.000The lawsuit says the date requirement imposes unnecessary hurdles that eligible Pennsylvanians must clear to exercise their most fundamental rights.
00:28:30.000Lawsuit alleges election officials are rejecting qualified voters who accidentally failed to write the date on their ballot envelope and more still will be rejected when voters enter an incorrect date such as their birth date instead of the date they completed or signed.
00:28:39.000Why would you write your birthday instead of the date that you signed your ballot on the slot that says signed ballot date?
00:28:47.000So the fact that the Democrats want to count a bunch of votes that are that are cast If not illegally, then at least incorrectly, is a sign of how Democrats wish to confuse the process.
00:28:57.000Meanwhile, late voting changes in Philadelphia make this even more confusing.
00:29:01.000This is why you have to have good vote procedures state by state, and it is ridiculous that Pennsylvania has not fixed this after 2020.
00:29:05.000According to the Philadelphia Enquirer, counting Philadelphia's votes will take longer than expected this election.
00:29:19.000Again, you know everybody who has doubts about the election.
00:29:21.000If it starts to materialize looking like an Oz victory and then all of a sudden, Philadelphia's ballots start coming in late, the accusation is going to be that there's somebody in the back room in Philadelphia who is shoveling ballots.
00:29:30.000Now again, accusations are not tantamount to evidence.
00:29:45.000According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, city officials voted Tuesday morning as polling places opened and the vote count began for the midterm elections to reinstate a time-consuming and labor-intensive process for catching double votes that will slow how quickly they can report results.
00:29:58.000Senate race is as close as expected, a wait for results out of the state's largest city is sure to shine a national spotlight on Philadelphia just the way it did in 2020.
00:30:05.000The city commissioners, the three-member elections board, voted 2-1 to reinstate what is known as poll book reconciliation.
00:30:11.000That's a means of flagging mail ballots submitted by voters who also voted in person during an emergency 7am meeting.
00:30:16.000It was a sudden reversal of a decision they made less than a week ago and came a day after a city judge, responding to a Republican lawsuit, said they could move forward without the process.
00:30:24.000So, actually, the sole Republican commissioner voted in favor of the reconciliation, he said, I want to be clear that when there are conversations that occur later this evening about whether or not Philadelphia has counted all of their ballots, that the reason some ballots would not be counted is Republicans did target Philadelphia and only Philadelphia to force us to conduct a procedure no other county does. So this is worth noting also for Republicans who are like, why is it taking so long? Why can't they just count the ballots in Philadelphia? The answer is Republicans asked for it to take longer to count the ballots in Philadelphia.
00:30:51.000They asked for it to take longer because they want to make sure that people aren't voting twice.
00:30:55.000That you voted in person and you sent in a mail-in ballot and your ballot isn't getting out.
00:30:57.000Again, they have procedures in place generally to catch that sort of thing, but they want to make sure that everything is counted twice before it's actually tabulated.
00:31:05.000So, When it takes time to get some results from Pennsylvania, just understand that's part of the process.
00:31:10.000It's a crappy process that needs to be fixed.
00:31:11.000And meanwhile, the closing election pitch for Democrats again is that democracy is at stake.
00:31:17.000As always, as always, democracy is at stake unless you vote for us and our friends.
00:31:21.000That is what the New York Times editorial board says.
00:31:23.000Midterm elections in the United States are often presented as a referent on the party in power.
00:31:26.000That message appears to be resonating this fall, but voters need to consider the intentions of the party that hopes to regain power too.
00:31:32.000And what each vote they cast will mean for the future of this country.
00:31:35.000Eight Republican senators and 139 Republican representatives sought to overturn the results of the 2020 election on the basis of spurious allegations of voter fraud and other irregularities.
00:31:44.000We're going to do the January 6th stuff again.
00:31:47.000And their presence in Congress poses a danger to democracy.
00:31:50.000OK, talk to Jamie Raskin, who voted against certification of the election in 2016.
00:31:52.000There have been multiple Democrats who over the years, in 2004, in 2016, every time a Republican wins, vote against the certification.
00:32:00.000Are those people a danger to democracy?
00:32:03.000But, says the New York Times, the greatest danger to election integrity may in fact come from the results of state and local races that will determine who actually conducts the election and counts the votes in 2024.
00:32:12.000In the weeks that followed the 2020 election, Mr. Trump and his supporters saw their efforts to deny the election results and prove rampant voter fraud thwarted by two things.
00:32:18.000First, their inability to produce credible evidence that fraud occurred.
00:32:20.000And second, an election infrastructure that was defended by honorable public servants who refused to accept specious claims of wrongdoing.
00:32:26.000Over the past two years, Republicans in dozens of states have tried to dismantle that infrastructure piece by piece, particularly by filling key positions with Trump sympathizers.
00:32:33.000Okay, but the argument that the New York Times editorial board is making is vote Democrat up and down the ballot in order to stop presumably a couple of people running for Arizona Secretary of State who aren't going to count the ballots properly.
00:32:46.000That your local congressperson is a threat to democracy is an idea that people are just not going to buy.
00:32:52.000The New York Times admits that Democrats have largely failed to connect with voters' concerns about inflation and public safety during the campaign season.
00:32:57.000They've struggled to communicate their tangible achievements.
00:33:00.000Undoubtedly, there's more work to be done on these and other issues.
00:33:02.000But the 2020 elections are an opportunity for Americans to do their part in defending the integrity of American elections.
00:33:08.000Now, I would find this a lot more convincing if Democrats weren't simultaneously already attempting to warn about voter suppression.
00:33:15.000The New York Times literally has a piece today Claiming that there will be voter suppression in Florida.
00:33:21.000This is from, sorry, it's the Washington Post.
00:33:23.000The Washington Post has an article, same day as the New York Times, claiming this is all about preserving democracy.
00:33:27.000Quote, black voters in Florida express fear, confusion, as DeSantis' election laws kick in.
00:33:32.000Oh, so you mean if Val Demings loses by a thousand points to Marco Rubio, it'll probably be because of voter suppression.
00:33:37.000The same people who are lecturing you about threats to democracy are telling you that if the Democrats lose, not only will be that a threat to democracy in the future, it means that the election was not properly held today.
00:33:48.000Says the Washington Post, Tuesday will mark the first major election changes in Florida since the legislature pushed through those changes affecting voters voting in the Sunshine State.
00:33:55.000Voter advocates say the laws disproportionately affect black voters, making it harder for many to vote and have created an environment of confusion and fear.
00:34:03.000Voters can deliver ballots for immediate family members, but there are new forms to fill out, and some worry that even a small mistake could result in a fine or an arrest.
00:34:10.000It is now illegal to turn in more than two ballots that don't belong to a close relative.
00:34:15.000You shouldn't be able to go out and pick up ballots from everybody in the neighborhood.
00:34:19.000That is an opportunity for voter fraud in action.
00:34:22.000But, says the Washington Post, this is disincentivizing black voters to go to the polls, and therefore you have to worry about election threats.
00:34:29.000Meanwhile, Politico has an entire article today titled, Six Election Security Threats to Watch for on Election Day.
00:34:36.000So now we're worried about voting equipment.
00:34:39.000They say that we have to worry about myths and disinformation.
00:34:42.000Lies and conspiracy theories about the security of election systems are what most worry election supervisors and federal cybersecurity and intelligence officials because those falsehoods can inflame mistrust.
00:34:51.000Also, by the way, in the same article, they say that there could be serious worries about wireless modems enabling hacks of voting machines or vote tallies.
00:35:01.000So Politico already warning about the possibility of actually like Diebold machines being hacked circa 2004.
00:35:08.000At least seven states and Washington DC use wireless modems to transmit unofficial election night results to their central offices.
00:35:13.000These modems use telecommunications networks that are vulnerable to hackers and malicious hackers could exploit them to tamper with unofficial vote data.
00:35:20.000So, guys, you have to vote Democrats who preserve democracy.
00:35:23.000Also, the vote might not be legit, voter suppression, and all of the rest.
00:35:28.000This is the case that Charles Blow is making also.
00:35:30.000He aptly named Charles Blow over at the New York Times because his columns routinely blow.
00:35:37.000He says, modern presidential elections don't often end in landslides.
00:35:40.000In fact, no president has won by a margin of the popular vote greater than 10 percentage points since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
00:35:45.000These slim margins are obscured by the flaws and peculiarities of our electoral process.
00:35:49.000But that same fluke means the country's last two Republican presidents were able to win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.
00:35:54.000This is all to say we are a cat's whisker away from calamity.
00:36:10.000As Biden has pointed out, the country is perilously close to installing officials who want to undo and remake it, who want a partial democracy or none at all.
00:36:16.000America is one bad election away from being a memory.
00:36:20.000Also, if Republicans win, it's probably because they cheated.
00:36:23.000So that's part of the Democratic closing pitch.
00:36:24.000The other part of the Democratic closing pitch is, of course, that the Republicans are all evil, violent people who attack Paul Pelosi with a hammer.
00:36:30.000Nancy Pelosi, in highly cynical fashion, actually suggested that last night.
00:37:55.000I will be joined by Matt Walsh, Michael Molls, Andrew Klavan.
00:37:57.000Our God King with a lower G, Jeremy Boring, and others to give you the play-by-play.
00:38:02.000Throughout the night, we'll be giving you live updates from the Morning Wire team, plus any pertinent social media meltdowns from the likes of AOC.
00:38:21.000Okay, so the Democratic closing pitch.
00:38:23.000is yelling at voters and or saying that Republicans are violent attackers who hit people with hammers.
00:38:27.000Nancy Pelosi was on CNN last night suggesting that basically Republicans are responsible for an insane nutcase who is a nudist drug abuser hitting her husband in the head with a hammer.
00:38:38.000In our democracy, there is one party that is doubting the outcome of the election, feeding that flame, and mocking any violence that happens.
00:38:50.000The former president of the United States, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, others have spread stories, casting doubt on what happened, fomenting conspiracy theories.
00:39:06.000It's really sad for the country that people of that high visibility would separate themselves from the facts and the truth in such a blatant way.
00:39:17.000It's really sad and it is traumatizing to those affected by it.
00:39:23.000They don't care about that, obviously.
00:39:28.000destructive to the unity that we want to have in our country.
00:39:33.000But I don't have anything to say to them.
00:39:35.000I mean, we have nothing, there would be no common ground to have any conversation with them.
00:39:40.000Okay, listen, I'm actually sympathetic to the idea that people who are putting out theories about how her husband was having gay sex with a crazy nudist who hit him in the head with a hammer, I'm sympathetic to her being upset about that.
00:39:49.000They're talking about her husband who just got hit in the head with a hammer.
00:39:52.000What I'm not sympathetic to is the idea that they are destroying unity in the country as though unity was something that Democrats are seeking, that Nancy Pelosi is seeking, that Joe Biden has been seeking.
00:40:10.000So Joe Biden tweeted, quote, You don't get to accept hundreds of thousands of dollars in pandemic loans and then attack my administration for helping working folks get some relief.
00:40:22.000I've noticed there's not a lot of video available of Joe Biden over the last couple of days because he's not alive.
00:40:27.000They just keep not putting him on the campaign trail because he's terrible.
00:40:30.000Um, that is the stupidest argument in the entire world.
00:40:33.000That we are not allowed to criticize you spending more money than has ever been spent by any human being in the history of planet Earth by a long shot.
00:40:41.000We're not allowed to do that because the government forcibly shut down our businesses in 2020 and then had to compensate us for shutting down our businesses.
00:41:06.000And this is why Joe Biden is a failure.
00:41:08.000It is why he is not going to have a good night tonight.
00:41:11.000And it's also why Americans don't actually believe White House spokesperson Kate Bedingfield when she says that Joe Biden's top priority is working families and helping them create jobs.
00:41:33.000Significant bill to increase manufacturing here in the United States, the Chips and Science Act, which puts us on stronger footing competing with China and has helped contribute to the creation of 700,000 manufacturing jobs, up above the number of manufacturing jobs we had before the pandemic.
00:41:49.000So he, if you're thinking about, if you're wondering what the president's going to do moving forward, look at what he's accomplished so far. You can see his priority, his working families, creating jobs, giving them breathing room, and that's what he'll do moving forward.
00:42:39.000It's how it was reported out was being twisted.
00:42:42.000So if you, and I want to be really clear because this is important, if you read the full transcript the president was very clear commenting on a fact of economics and technology as it has been from the its earliest days as an energy superpower.
00:42:57.000America is once again in the midst of an energy transition and the president is determined to make sure that this transition helps all Americans and he's been very clear about that.
00:43:08.000Um, so no, uh, he has not been clear about all of this and this is why you are going to lose.
00:43:14.000I mean, Democrat after Democrat is running a final, a bad final closing pitch.
00:43:18.000Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, for example, her closing pitch is to use the phrase people with a period.
00:43:24.000You want to know why so many voters are ignoring whatever Republican weirdnesses and conspiracy theories there are?
00:43:29.000Maybe the reason is because your mainstream party is saying that women are people with a period.
00:43:42.000income Michiganders. Saving people with a period from paying taxes on up to $4,800 in spending people with a period.
00:43:50.000Their lifetime. You're all weird. It's because you're weird.
00:43:53.000You're being weird. You keep saying weird crap. Latinx people with a period. That's why you're losing. And then you're like, why don't people think that we're taking inflation seriously? You shut down all the schools for two years.
00:44:32.000We'll be getting into Hunter Biden's laptop, what Republicans are going to investigate if they win with Megyn Kelly, plus Sean Trendy of RealClearPolitics stops by.
00:44:39.000We go through every single major Senate election.