The Ben Shapiro Show - It’s Election Season Crunch Time | Ep. 1592

00:00:00.000 New polling shows Republicans jumping into the lead on the congressional generic ballot, and we examine all the closest Senate races state by state.

00:00:06.000 I'm Ben Shapiro.

00:00:07.000 This is The Ben Shapiro Show.

00:00:14.000 Today's show is sponsored by ExpressVPN.

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00:00:20.000 Slash Ben will get to all the news in just one moment.

00:00:22.000 First, the Labor Department's Consumer Price Index, which catalogs the cost of goods, services, food, and rent, rose 0.4% over the month of August, double what many economists had anticipated.

00:00:30.000 Perhaps worse, core inflation that excludes food and gas prices saw the highest increase last month it's seen since August of 1982.

00:00:37.000 So, what exactly is the current administration doing to stop the inflation?

00:00:40.000 Well, they passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which was only like, you know, Trillion dollars for nothing?

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00:02:37.000 The crosstabs are significantly worse for the Democrats.

00:02:40.000 month of coverage. That is at PeerTalk.com, promo code Shapiro to get started. Well, there's a brand new New York Times poll out and what it shows is that Republicans have now jumped into a four point lead. The cross tabs are significantly worse for the Democrats. This is going to have a significant effect on the US.

00:02:55.000 Senate map in particular.

00:02:57.000 Right now, real clear politics suggests that Republicans are probably going to net a couple of seats, which would put them in the majority.

00:03:02.000 Essentially, the races right now that are hot in the Senate boil down to Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, maybe New Hampshire, maybe Colorado.

00:03:12.000 But those are the big ones.

00:03:13.000 And we're going to go through these state by state.

00:03:15.000 But to understand what exactly is happening here, you have to understand that the chief issue is absolutely the economy.

00:03:21.000 And this is what this New York Times Siena poll shows.

00:03:23.000 What it shows is that 64% of likely voters believe the country is moving in the wrong direction, which means doom for the party in power, especially if it's a unified party in power controlling the House, the Senate, and the presidency.

00:03:35.000 This poll shows that just 39% somewhat or strongly approve of Joe Biden.

00:03:41.000 As opposed to 58% who say they somewhat disapprove or strongly disapprove of Joe Biden.

00:03:45.000 Those are terrible numbers for the President of the United States.

00:03:48.000 In fact, they are lower numbers than President Trump currently has.

00:03:51.000 Trump currently has a 43% approval rating, 53% unfavorable rating.

00:03:56.000 It is worth noting here, when it comes to the exact issues that are supposedly on the radar of voters, likely voters, 26% say the economy is their number one issue.

00:04:08.000 18% say inflation or the cost of living is their number one issue.

00:04:12.000 No other issue here, with the exception of just the state of democracy, ranks above 8%.

00:04:18.000 So that means 44% of voters say that their top issues are issues that cut in favor of Republicans. 44%.

00:04:26.000 Again, abortion is a 5% issue.

00:04:29.000 Immigration is a 5% issue. 0.91

00:04:31.000 Crime is a 3% issue in terms of what is your top issue.

00:04:33.000 The state of democracy is an 8% issue.

00:04:35.000 As we'll see, however, the state of democracy is too vague because when you actually look at the partisan breakdown in terms of what people think they're talking about when they say the state of democracy, very wide discrepancy between what Republicans believe they're talking about and what Democrats believe they're talking about.

00:04:49.000 And again, these numbers are fairly consistent in terms of the economy across the party ID.

00:04:54.000 So 35% of Republicans say the economy is their top issue.

00:04:57.000 26% of Independents say it's their top issue.

00:05:00.000 17% of Democrats say it is their top issue.

00:05:02.000 Inflation or the cost of living?

00:05:04.000 23% of Republicans say top issue.

00:05:06.000 Independents 14%.

00:05:07.000 Democrats 17%.

00:05:11.000 8% of Democrats say abortion.

00:05:13.000 7% of Independents say abortion.

00:05:15.000 12% of Republicans say immigration.

00:05:17.000 So it's really kind of... For Republicans, their second issue is immigration.

00:05:20.000 For Democrats, their second issue is abortion.

00:05:24.000 And then when you go down to the state of democracy, what you see is that 11% of Democrats say that this is their main issue, meaning it's slightly above abortion actually, so abortion comes in number three.

00:05:33.000 9% of Democrats and 9% of Independents and 4% of Republicans.

00:05:37.000 Now, what's really fascinating about this poll is what it shows is actually fairly broad spectrum agreement on a fair number of issues that demonstrate the difference between the online reality and the real world.

00:05:47.000 And this is important because candidates who tend to cater to the online reality are going to suffer in the polls.

00:05:51.000 And we're going to see this when we go state by state.

00:05:53.000 The candidates who tend to be very online are the ones who are doing worse.

00:05:56.000 The ones who tend to be out there hobnobbing with the actual voters and trying to cater to actual human beings, those are the ones who are doing better.

00:06:03.000 The reason I say this is because if you look at this poll, they ask some interesting questions.

00:06:07.000 They said, thinking about the people you meet, do you think other people's political views tell you a lot about whether someone is a good person, a little about whether someone is a good person, or don't tell you anything about whether someone is a good person?

00:06:18.000 And what they found is only 14% of people said that someone's political views told you a lot about whether someone's a good person, 35% said it told you a little, and 39% said it didn't tell you anything at all.

00:06:28.000 And those numbers are really, really consistent between Republicans and Democrats, actually.

00:06:33.000 19% of Democrats say that politics tells you a lot about whether somebody is a good person.

00:06:37.000 Only 19%, less than 1 in 5 Democrats.

00:06:39.000 15% of Republicans, 8% of Independents think it tells you a lot about a person, what their politics are, whether they are a good person or not.

00:06:45.000 Only 20% of likely voters say they've had disagreements recently with family or friends over political issues that hurt the relationship.

00:06:53.000 And again, these numbers are fairly consistent.

00:06:54.000 That's 23% of Democrats, 16% of Republicans, 20% of Independents.

00:06:58.000 The vast majority of Americans are happy to have conversations with their family and friends, even if they differ on politics.

00:07:05.000 There's also broad-spectrum agreement that the government mainly works to benefit powerful elites.

00:07:10.000 Now, one of the things that's shocking here, actually, is actually a shocking question.

00:07:14.000 When you look at the party breakdown, 75% of Republicans believe the government is there to benefit powerful elites.

00:07:21.000 69% of independents say the same thing.

00:07:23.000 Only 58% of Democrats agree.

00:07:25.000 So Democrats are not aligned with independents here.

00:07:29.000 And when it comes to whether the president should follow existing rules, there's actually a fairly consistent level of agreement between Republicans and Democrats that the president shouldn't just violate the law willy-nilly.

00:07:39.000 So if you have a very online president who's just willing to, say, relieve student loan debt without any further discussion about the legality of that, that actually is not something that's going to be wildly popular with any element of the political spectrum.

00:07:52.000 As far as the question that the media have really pumped up about whether America's political system is on the verge of bankruptcy, whether wide-scale violence is going to break out, apparently about 46% of likely voters say that the American political system can still address the nation's problems.

00:08:09.000 48% say it's too divided politically to solve its problems.

00:08:11.000 Now, the reality is that most of the nation's problems are not solvable politically.

00:08:15.000 Most of them are going to have to happen socially, in your community, in your family.

00:08:19.000 But, again, very consistent numbers here.

00:08:22.000 46% of Democrats, 46% of Republicans, 47% of Independents believe that the government can still address the nation's problems.

00:08:29.000 As opposed to 45% of Democrats, 49% of Republicans, 51% of Independents who believe that we are now too divided politically to solve America's problems.

00:08:37.000 As far as whether American democracy is currently under threat, again, very consistent numbers.

00:08:42.000 Most Americans believe that American democracy is currently under threat.

00:08:46.000 They just believe that based on varying sources of the threat.

00:08:49.000 Democrats here say, presumably, Donald Trump is the biggest threat.

00:08:53.000 Republicans say that the biggest threat is Democrats.

00:08:55.000 So, not a giant shock right there.

00:08:59.000 But what this really shows is that when you get beyond President Trump, there actually is fairly broad scale agreement that the government is not supposed to overstep its boundaries, that the government is not capable of solving all of our problems, That the major threats to democracy are basically about our inability to get along?

00:09:17.000 By the way, 54% of independents believe that the media is a major threat to our democracy.

00:09:22.000 85% of Republicans agree.

00:09:24.000 Only 34% of Democrats think the same.

00:09:28.000 I will say that even among Democrats, 67% say that the mainstream media is either a major or a minor threat to democracy, which is kind of astonishing.

00:09:37.000 So, what does all of this mean?

00:09:38.000 Well, what it really means when it comes down to the election is that the economy is everything.

00:09:43.000 And the reason the economy is everything right now is because the economy is about to go into recession if it's not already in recession.

00:09:48.000 According to Bloomberg, a U.S.

00:09:49.000 recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months.

00:09:51.000 A new Bloomberg economics model projections a blow to President Joe Biden's economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.

00:09:57.000 The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 23 hitting 100%.

00:10:06.000 hitting 100% that is up 65 from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.

00:10:13.000 The model is more certain of a recession than other forecasts.

00:10:16.000 A separate Bloomberg survey of 42 economists predicts the probability of a recession over the next 12 months is now 60% up from 50% a month early.

00:10:23.000 Now remember a couple of months ago, a majority of economists were saying, ah, probably there won't be a recession.

00:10:27.000 I was saying, nope, there definitely is going to be a recession.

00:10:29.000 Now the models are beginning to match what I was telling you about.

00:10:32.000 According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S.

00:10:33.000 is forecast to enter a recession in the coming 12 months as the Federal Reserve battles to bring down persistently high inflation, the economy contracts, and employers cut jobs in response, according to the Wall Street Journal's latest survey of economists.

00:10:44.000 On average, economists put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 63%.

00:10:49.000 Their forecasts for 2023 are increasingly gloomy.

00:10:52.000 Economists now expect gross domestic product to contract in the first two quarters of the year, a downgrade from the last quarterly survey where they penciled in mild growth.

00:10:59.000 On average, the economists now predict GDP will contract at a 0.2% annual rate in the first quarter of 2023 and shrink 0.1% in the second quarter.

00:11:07.000 In July's survey, they expected a 0.8% growth rate in the first quarter and a 1% growth rate in the second.

00:11:13.000 So that is a wild... I mean, that is a significant shift.

00:11:17.000 You're talking about a shift of a full percentage point here in both the growth rate in the first quarter and the growth rate in the second quarter.

00:11:30.000 Those are big numbers.

00:11:31.000 Employers are expected to respond to lower growth and weaker profits by cutting jobs in the second and third quarters.

00:11:36.000 Economists believe nonfarm payrolls will decline by $34,000 a month on average in the second quarter, $38,000 in the third quarter.

00:11:42.000 According to the last survey, they expect employers to add about 65,000 jobs a month in those two quarters.

00:11:47.000 Again, the inability here of the Federal Reserve to achieve a soft landing after jacking up the amount of money in the economy by injecting $7 trillion into the economy and placing the interest rates at zero.

00:11:57.000 Now that you have to ramp up those interest rates spectacularly, it would be a shock if there weren't some sort of crash right here.

00:12:02.000 Meanwhile, Joe Biden is trying to happy talk his way through this with a mouthful of ice cream.

00:12:05.000 Here was the president over the last couple of days.

00:12:08.000 I'm not sure that Republicans could have cut a better ad than Joe Biden with his mouthful of ice cream mumbling to people that our economy is strong as hell, in his words.

00:12:16.000 Just one more economic one.

00:12:17.000 Are you concerned about the strength of the dollar right now?

00:12:21.000 I'm not concerned about the strength of the dollar.

00:12:27.000 I'm concerned about the rest of the world.

00:12:29.000 Does that make sense?

00:12:32.000 Yes.

00:12:33.000 Our economy is going as hell.

00:12:35.000 The internals of it.

00:12:37.000 Inflation is worldwide.

00:12:39.000 It's worse off everywhere else than it is in the United States.

00:12:43.000 So, the problem is the lack of economic growth and sound policy in other countries is not so much worse.

00:12:53.000 And that's worldwide inflation.

00:12:55.000 That's consequential.

00:12:58.000 And now he's going to pretend he sees somebody.

00:13:00.000 Or does he?

00:13:01.000 No one knows.

00:13:02.000 So, the man is eating ice cream and telling you about how the economy is great.

00:13:06.000 That is almost literally a let them eat cake moment there from Joe Biden.

00:13:10.000 Let them eat Rocky Road, says Joe Biden.

00:13:12.000 So, strong stuff there from the President of the United States.

00:13:14.000 I wonder why Democrats are sinking in the polls.

00:13:16.000 Meanwhile, Karine Jean-Pierre, the wildly untalented press secretary, she says, she's asked about the Inflation Reduction Act.

00:13:20.000 Like, we were promised that it was going to reduce inflation at some point in here.

00:13:24.000 Got any plans for it to do that at all?

00:13:26.000 Here's Karine Jean-Pierre's response.

00:13:29.000 On inflation, can you give us a timeline?

00:13:31.000 You've laid out eloquently what the President's been doing.

00:13:33.000 Is there a timeline for when Americans can start feeling some economic pain or relief?

00:13:38.000 So, in regards to the Inflation Reduction Act, early next year, they will see some of the pieces of that, when you think about energy costs, when you think about the Medicare kind of benefits from that.

00:13:53.000 So we'll see some movement on that early next year.

00:13:57.000 Are you convinced?

00:13:58.000 Do you feel convinced by Corinne Jean-Pierre right there?

00:14:02.000 She seems well in control of her talking points about the strength of the American economy.

00:14:06.000 No wonder that while Democrats are slightly favored to win the U.S.

00:14:09.000 Senate in 538, those odds are dropping fairly dramatically.

00:14:12.000 Just a couple of weeks ago, those numbers were closer to 80% that Democrats were going to take the Senate.

00:14:16.000 Now they're about 64% to take the Senate.

00:14:18.000 Those numbers are going to keep coming down.

00:14:20.000 And the reason they're going to keep coming down is because again, voters are now in the late stages shifting Toward the economy, which is always what happens.

00:14:29.000 A few months before every election, there seems to be a tightening as people get distracted.

00:14:32.000 Abortion was going to be the major issue. 1.00

00:14:33.000 And then it turns out that people start going back to their pocketbooks right before an election and they blame the party in power when the economy looks bad.

00:14:41.000 According to columnist Douglas Shane and Andrew Stein for the Wall Street Journal, the Republican Party is on the cusp of a substantial midterm election victory that could rival their wins in 1994 and 2010.

00:14:50.000 There's been a three-point swing to Republicans in the generic ballot polling in just the last month, according to the RealClearPolitics average.

00:14:56.000 Democrats led by as much as 1.3 points in September.

00:14:59.000 As of Monday, Republicans were up 1.8.

00:15:01.000 A late September ABC News Washington Post poll found the Republican advantage concentrated where it's needed most.

00:15:05.000 The GOP had a five-point lead among likely voters nationwide, but a 21-point margin in competitive congressional districts.

00:15:12.000 So what that means is that, again, overall, Democrats are showing up to vote in Democratic districts, but in the swing districts, Republicans are doing really, really well.

00:15:20.000 Other battleground district polls from CBS News, Economist, YouGov, and CNN showed the GOP with a much narrower lead, but a consistent one.

00:15:26.000 So what does that mean for seats?

00:15:27.000 The House's current breakdown is 220-212 in favor of the Democrats.

00:15:30.000 There are three vacant seats.

00:15:32.000 A majority of a full House is 218.

00:15:34.000 As of Sunday, RealClearPolitics rates 221 seats as leaning, likely, or securely Republican, up to 176 for the Democrats.

00:15:41.000 There are 38 other seats that are toss-ups.

00:15:44.000 If there are no upsets on either side, and the toss-ups are evenly split, Republicans still pull out 28 seats.

00:15:49.000 A Republican sweep of the toss-up races would expand the majority to 259 to 176.

00:15:52.000 That's vanishingly unlikely, but so is a Democratic sweep of the toss-ups, which would still leave the GOP with a seven-seat majority.

00:15:59.000 So, in other words, if things sort of go as people expect, Republicans should pick up somewhere close to 30 seats.

00:16:06.000 If they go slightly better, Republicans could pick up 35 to 40 seats.

00:16:10.000 That would not be a shock in any way, shape, or form.

00:16:12.000 And it shouldn't be!

00:16:13.000 Democrats have wildly underperformed.

00:16:15.000 All they had to do was stand aside and allow things to go back to normal after President Trump left office.

00:16:19.000 Instead, they decided that they were going to embrace world-breaking politics.

00:16:24.000 The way they are defending against their incipient failure here is just by screaming at this guy.

00:16:29.000 So, Joy Reid, who is, um...

00:16:31.000 Her name is not, it does not belie her attitude.

00:16:35.000 She says, quote, Now, again, this is where I go back to the idea that the online is not the real world.

00:16:40.000 In the real world, people care about the fact that they are paying 10% more for their goods than they were last year.

00:16:43.000 student loan relief because they think giving Republicans the power to investigate Hunter Biden will bring down gas prices.

00:16:48.000 Now, again, this is where I go back to the idea that the online is not the real world.

00:16:53.000 In the real world, people care about the fact that they are paying 10% more for their goods than they were last year and a lot more than they were two years ago.

00:17:00.000 In the real world, people care about the fact that they may lose their job next year.

00:17:03.000 In the real world, businesses are looking at their future profits and they're shuddering.

00:17:08.000 In the real world, people are looking at Joe Biden's spending policy and realizing it's really, really bad.

00:17:13.000 Or they're looking at Joe Biden's foreign policy and realizing that's not particularly good either.

00:17:16.000 In Joy Reid's world, we are on the verge of literal fascism.

00:17:21.000 We're on the verge of women being reduced to the state of serfs. 1.00

00:17:24.000 Like we're going to make them work in the field and give a percentage of their earnings to the Lord. 0.95

00:17:31.000 The Republicans are going to use the right of droit de seigneur.

00:17:36.000 They're going to go back to prima nocte.

00:17:39.000 What in the world is she talking about?

00:17:42.000 But this is for people who are wildly disconnected from reality.

00:17:45.000 And it turns out that elections are not wildly disconnected from reality.

00:17:48.000 They tend to be very much connected to reality.

00:17:50.000 So what does that mean on a case-by-case basis?

00:17:52.000 So we're going to go through some of these states and we're going to look at which races are close Which ones are close that should not be close?

00:17:59.000 And which ones are basically lost causes for Democrats?

00:18:02.000 We'll get to more on this in just one moment first.

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00:19:07.000 So it is sort of fascinating.

00:19:09.000 You know, there are trend lines, and those trend lines suggest Republicans are about to do very well in the Senate, and they're about to do very well in the House.

00:19:15.000 And then, candidate quality matters an awful lot when it comes to the Senate.

00:19:19.000 So when you go state by state, what you see is that there are certain candidates who are underperforming and certain candidates who seem to be a little bit overperforming.

00:19:25.000 So in Ohio, for example, the Ohio polling right now shows that J.D.

00:19:29.000 Vance has about a two-point lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average against Tim Ryan.

00:19:34.000 Tim Ryan is a congressperson from Ohio.

00:19:36.000 He ran for president last time around.

00:19:38.000 And there's no poll with Vance outside of about a four point lead.

00:19:42.000 There are very few polls with Ryan with a lead, but Vance is not ahead by a tremendous number.

00:19:47.000 He's not at 50% in any poll in the last couple of months.

00:19:51.000 The reason for that is because even though Ohio is a very red state now, I remember Donald Trump won Ohio by a significant percentage, I believe by about 10 percentage points in the last election cycle.

00:20:01.000 Vance has run a bit of a weak race.

00:20:01.000 J.D.

00:20:04.000 And the reason that J.D.

00:20:05.000 Vance has run a bit of a weak race is because, frankly, I think he's been a little bit too online.

00:20:09.000 J.D.

00:20:09.000 Vance has been responding to a lot of the accusations by Democrats that he is a racist by responding in almost Trumpian fashion in some ways.

00:20:17.000 He has been talking a lot about trade policy.

00:20:20.000 He's been talking about things that people care about on Twitter a little bit more than the stuff that he actually used to write about when he was writing Hillbillyology.

00:20:29.000 If he'd been the candidate of Hillbilly Elegy, I think he's up 10 right now.

00:20:32.000 Instead, he seems to be the candidate of sort of populist onlinedom.

00:20:36.000 Now, he can still pull out that race in Ohio, because Ohio is a very heavy red state.

00:20:39.000 He should win that race by a more significant percentage than he is currently leading that race in Ohio, however.

00:20:45.000 So, the other night, J.D.

00:20:47.000 Vance had a debate with Tim Ryan.

00:20:50.000 And it is so obvious that the advantage here lies with J.D.

00:20:54.000 Vance, because again, Tim Ryan is allied with a party that has completely failed.

00:20:57.000 And this is a point that J.D.

00:20:58.000 Vance made over and over and over again.

00:21:01.000 As for Tim Ryan, his entire schtick is, I need to tie J.D.

00:21:04.000 Vance to Donald Trump's leg.

00:21:06.000 For those who believe that Donald Trump has been a boon to Republicans in these election cycles, he has not.

00:21:10.000 He just has not.

00:21:11.000 He's been the lead point of attack.

00:21:13.000 And if you look at that New York Times poll again, what you see is that among independents who actually believe that there's a quote-unquote threat to democracy, and about 9% of independents do, they predominantly agree with Democrats that Donald Trump is the chief threat.

00:21:24.000 Okay, so what that means is that the more, as I've said before, the more people are talking about Trump going into the midterms, the worse it is for Republicans.

00:21:30.000 The more people are talking about the incompetence of Democrats going into the midterms, the better it is for Republicans.

00:21:34.000 And you can see this on a case-by-case basis.

00:21:36.000 It doesn't mean J.D.

00:21:36.000 Vance is going to lose.

00:21:37.000 I don't think he is going to lose.

00:21:38.000 I'd be shocked if he lost.

00:21:40.000 It is to say this should be a runaway race for J.D.

00:21:41.000 Vance right now.

00:21:43.000 So, take Tim Ryan's debate tactics here.

00:21:46.000 So, his debate tactic here is to try to tie J.D.

00:21:48.000 Vance to Donald Trump.

00:21:49.000 Here is Tim Ryan slamming J.D. 1.00

00:21:51.000 Vance by saying that he kissed Donald Trump's ass. 0.99

00:21:53.000 Let me just first say that this is obviously a clip that J.D. 0.99

00:21:58.000 is running to try to misrepresent people.

00:22:01.000 I ran against Nancy Pelosi, J.D., for leadership.

00:22:06.000 And you have to have the courage to take on your own leaders.

00:22:10.000 These leaders in D.C.

00:22:11.000 Why don't you vote against them?

00:22:13.000 They will eat you up like a chew toy.

00:22:16.000 Right?

00:22:16.000 I mean, you were calling Trump America's Hitler.

00:22:22.000 Then you kissed his ass. 1.00

00:22:24.000 It is true. 1.00

00:22:25.000 And then you kissed his ass, and then he endorsed you. 1.00

00:22:29.000 And you said he's the greatest president of all time. 1.00

00:22:31.000 So that's the angle for Tim Ryan.

00:22:33.000 Now, the angle for J.D.

00:22:34.000 Vance is that Tim Ryan represents a party that has completely failed.

00:22:38.000 So J.D. 0.75

00:22:39.000 Vance says, listen, you're accusing me of sucking up to Trump. 0.98

00:22:41.000 You sucked up to Nancy Pelosi, and she's the one in charge of the Congress right now. 0.99

00:22:45.000 His entire campaign is based on sucking up to the national democratic establishment And of course they support you, Tim, because you support their policies 100%. 0.53

00:22:53.000 Now here's what happened.

00:22:55.000 He says he challenged Nancy Pelosi for leadership, but then he goes on national TV and says that he loves her.

00:23:01.000 Is that the price of challenging Nancy Pelosi?

00:23:04.000 Doing it for, what, a few days before you've failed?

00:23:07.000 Like you've done with everything you've tried to get through for the people of Youngstown?

00:23:11.000 So that's the angle for J.D.

00:23:12.000 Vance.

00:23:13.000 Now, Tim Ryan made, I think, a big blunder in this debate.

00:23:17.000 He tried to attack J.D.

00:23:18.000 Vance as a racist, and J.D.

00:23:20.000 Vance responded in pretty harsh fashion, as he should, saying, listen, you don't have to be a racist to believe that there ought to be a border.

00:23:27.000 And when you call me a racist, you seem to be ignoring the fact that I have several biracial children.

00:23:31.000 We have a... Hold on, J.D.

00:23:33.000 No, this is disgusting. 0.52

00:23:33.000 Stop harassing me. 0.52

00:23:35.000 Here's exactly what happens when the media and people like Tim Ryan accuse me of engaging in the Great Replacement Theory.

00:23:42.000 You're peddling it.

00:23:42.000 I'll tell you exactly what happens, Tim.

00:23:45.000 What happens is that my own children, my biracial children, get attacked by scumbags online and in person because you are so desperate for political power That you'll accuse me, the father of three beautiful biracial babies, of engaging in racism? 0.99

00:24:01.000 We are sick of it. 0.99

00:24:02.000 You can believe in a border without being a racist.

00:24:05.000 You can believe in the country without being a racist.

00:24:09.000 And this just shows how desperate this guy is for political power.

00:24:13.000 I know you've been in office for 20 years, Tim, and I know it's a sweet gig, but you're so desperate not to have a real job that you'll slander me and slander my family.

00:24:21.000 It's disgraceful.

00:24:22.000 Okay, so more of that from J.D.

00:24:24.000 Vance, right?

00:24:25.000 That from J.D.

00:24:25.000 Vance is really spectacular stuff.

00:24:27.000 And J.D.

00:24:27.000 Vance had, listen, Tim Ryan's had his chance, right?

00:24:29.000 Tim Ryan has done this.

00:24:30.000 He's been there for a long time and he hasn't accomplished anything that he set out to accomplish here.

00:24:33.000 My simple argument is this.

00:24:36.000 That Tim Ryan's had his chance.

00:24:37.000 He's been in office for 20 years.

00:24:39.000 He's passed five pieces of legislation.

00:24:42.000 Three of those pieces of legislation were in renaming post offices in the Youngstown area.

00:24:47.000 Whenever I'm up here in the Mahoning Valley, I'm constantly approached by people who tell me that Tim Ryan has failed them and Tim Ryan has failed to do his job.

00:24:57.000 Okay, this is like, again, J.D.

00:24:59.000 Vance in this debate, I think, did a great job of reframing what this race is about.

00:25:02.000 In two weeks until the election, I think you're going to start to see J.D.

00:25:04.000 Vance pull away here, especially because Tim Ryan has to tie himself to the Democrats.

00:25:09.000 So he touted, for example, the Inflation Reduction Act, suggesting it's going to lower inflation.

00:25:12.000 That ain't going to go over big in Ohio.

00:25:15.000 This is an opportunity for us, one, to reduce inflation.

00:25:18.000 One of the big drivers, and let me first say, I know how much pain people are in at the pump, with food, It's rough.

00:25:27.000 And if you're driving anywhere, if you're a home health care worker, if you're a construction worker, it's been brutal.

00:25:33.000 And I understand that.

00:25:34.000 And that's why I've been calling for a tax cut in the short term to put money in people's pockets.

00:25:41.000 J.D.

00:25:41.000 said that that was a gimmick, but it's actually an opportunity for us to put more money in people's pockets.

00:25:47.000 The Inflation Reduction Act also drives down our deficit by $300 billion, which will help pull some money out of the economy.

00:25:56.000 Meanwhile, speaking of candidates who are doing well, over in Georgia, Brian Kemp is just shellacking Stacey Abrams.

00:26:02.000 I mean, these numbers are brutal for Stacey Abrams right now. 0.88

00:26:07.000 I'm looking at the latest Georgia gubernatorial polls, and what they show is that Brian Kemp is up on average about five and a half points.

00:26:16.000 Tref Algar has him up 9.

00:26:18.000 Insider Advantage has Kemp up 7.

00:26:20.000 The Hill Emerson has Kemp up 5.

00:26:22.000 These are bad, bad numbers for Stacey Abrams.

00:26:24.000 And again, the reason for that is because Brian Kemp has run on stuff that Georgians actually care about.

00:26:30.000 The more you run away from Twitter, right?

00:26:32.000 You don't cater to Twitter.

00:26:33.000 You don't worry about what Twitter has to say.

00:26:35.000 You're not mainly concerned with the blue checks on Twitter and what they're saying on either side.

00:26:39.000 When you do that, you tend to run successful races.

00:26:42.000 If you can somehow hit the sweet spot where you're getting both, like Ron DeSantis in Florida, you become a national figure.

00:26:47.000 But if you're just looking to win your gubernatorial seat, in Georgia, Brian Kemp was able to withstand pressure from Donald Trump, and the hatred of Donald Trump, and he was able to defeat Stacey Abrams, the beloved of the left.

00:26:58.000 I mean, that is a very durable candidacy.

00:27:00.000 And that is because when you watch Brian Kemp, basically he just says common sense things in a common sense way.

00:27:04.000 So for example, he was talking about the electoral strategies in Georgia and how the voting laws in Georgia are not disenfranchising.

00:27:11.000 People says, listen, it's easy to vote here and it's hard to cheat.

00:27:15.000 The Miss Abrams is going to do a lot of attacking of my record tonight because she doesn't want to talk about her own record. 1.00

00:27:22.000 In 2018, in the Governor's race, we had the largest African American turnout in the country.

00:27:27.000 She said that Senate Bill 202, our recent Elections Integrity Act that we passed two years ago, would be suppressive in Jim Crow 2.0.

00:27:36.000 Just this past May in our primaries, we again had record turnout in the Republican primary and the Democratic primary.

00:27:43.000 In Georgia, it's easy to vote and hard to cheat.

00:27:47.000 By the way, Gabriel Sterling, who has come under serious fire because he is the Secretary of State in Georgia.

00:27:53.000 Donald Trump attacked him a lot.

00:27:54.000 He pointed out that as of yesterday, they'd seen over 100,000 Georgians cast their votes early, which blew away the previous midterm first day record of approximately 72,000.

00:28:04.000 So much for the idea of massive voter suppression. 0.98

00:28:06.000 Meanwhile, Brian Kemp points out to Stacey Abrams, you got no sheriffs endorsing you.

00:28:11.000 I'm the guy that the police actually care about.

00:28:12.000 So if you care about crime, you ought to vote for me.

00:28:15.000 Well, I would just tell people that, look, I support safety and justice.

00:28:19.000 But Ms. 0.83

00:28:19.000 Abrams refused to answer the question, so I'll let you know that the answer is zero. 0.83

00:28:24.000 No sheriffs are endorsing her statewide because of her stances on wanting to defund the police, eliminate cash bail, and serving on the boards of organizations like the Margaret Casey Foundation that supports and gives grants to organizations that are promoting the defund the police movement.

00:28:42.000 Brian Kemp also pointed out that he kept the state open for business.

00:28:45.000 Again, this is why Brian Kemp is going to destroy Stacey Abrams, the beloved of the media.

00:28:49.000 I mean, to the point where they made her the president of the universe in Star Trek. 0.54

00:28:54.000 Well, I would remind Georgians that the first part of my plan was keeping our state open for business and allowing all business people and working Georgians to work, when Stacey Abrams was criticizing me for doing that. 0.96

00:29:06.000 Also pushing to get our kids back in the classroom, when again, Stacey Abrams was criticizing me for doing that. 0.97

00:29:13.000 A lot of Georgians, including African Americans and other minorities, cannot go to work if their kids are not in the classroom.

00:29:20.000 I mean, this is all good stuff here from Brian Kemp, obviously.

00:29:22.000 Meanwhile, there's another race going on in Georgia, and that is the race between Walker and Warnock for Raphael Warnock's Senate seat, which he never would have won if Donald Trump hadn't intervened in the Georgia Senate race in January of 2021.

00:29:33.000 So Raphael Warnock right now, in the RealClearPolitics polling average, is up about three percentage points, but the last two polls have this thing well within margin of error.

00:29:40.000 Warnock plus two, Warnock plus one.

00:29:42.000 They had a debate the other night, did Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker.

00:29:47.000 Herschel Walker, I thought, did a fairly decent job.

00:29:51.000 I thought that he really attempted to refocus the debate on Warnock.

00:29:54.000 The big problem with Herschel Walker is because of all his baggage, a lot of the focus has been on Herschel Walker.

00:29:58.000 It's possible that if he refocuses the last couple of weeks and he just keeps saying the same lines over and over, that he can sort of drag himself to victory based on the fact that Brian Kemp also will provide a tailwind for him.

00:30:08.000 There'll be less ballot splitting, perhaps, than there otherwise would be.

00:30:11.000 In this debate, for example, Herschel Walker kept claiming repeatedly that he's running because Raphael Warnock and Joe Biden are the same.

00:30:18.000 It is very clear that my opponent would rather be running against anybody except me.

00:30:24.000 I'm happy to run against you.

00:30:25.000 There are only two people who are going to sit in this seat.

00:30:27.000 Either me or my opponent.

00:30:30.000 And I think this race is about who's ready to represent the people of Georgia.

00:30:34.000 And I'm thinking about them every single day.

00:30:36.000 But if he cut from the same cloth at 96% of the time, I'm running he and Joe Biden because they're the same.

00:30:43.000 Well, first of all, I'm glad that we're standing up to Putin's aggression.

00:30:46.000 And we have to continue to stand up.

00:30:47.000 and Herschel Walker sort of interjected, yeah, no, you laid down for Joe Biden.

00:30:51.000 Well, first of all, I'm glad that we are standing up to Putin's aggression.

00:30:57.000 And we have to continue to stand up, which is why I stood up to the Biden administration when it suggested that we should close the Savannah Combat Readiness Training Center.

00:31:10.000 I told the President that was the exact wrong thing to do at the exact wrong time.

00:31:14.000 Well, Senator, why not say he stood up?

00:31:16.000 He not stood up to Biden.

00:31:18.000 If he was standing up, he wouldn't have voted with him 96% of the time, which gave us an open border, which gave us high inflation, which gave us crime in the streets.

00:31:29.000 And you're talking about standing up?

00:31:31.000 He didn't stand up.

00:31:33.000 He had laid down every time it came around.

00:31:36.000 And you know that, Senator.

00:31:38.000 Now, meanwhile, again, the big issue for Herschel Walker is just the fact that Herschel Walker is a really volatile candidate.

00:31:43.000 For the voters watching tonight, can you explain the circumstances surrounding these claims?

00:31:46.000 You have 60 seconds.

00:31:47.000 Now, are they going to decide the election?

00:31:48.000 No.

00:31:49.000 But would this election be a lot easier if Herschel Walker did not have those stories?

00:31:51.000 Of course, here is Walker denying the abortion allegations, paying for an abortion some 10 to 15 years ago.

00:31:57.000 He denied those allegations on the stage.

00:32:00.000 For the voters watching tonight, can you explain the circumstances surrounding these claims?

00:32:04.000 You have 60 seconds.

00:32:05.000 Well, as I said, that's a lie.

00:32:07.000 And you know, what most think, I put it in a book.

00:32:10.000 One thing about my life is I've been very transparent.

00:32:13.000 Not like the Senator.

00:32:14.000 He's hid things.

00:32:16.000 But at the same time, I said, that's a lie.

00:32:18.000 And on abortion, you know, I'm a Christian.

00:32:21.000 I believe in life.

00:32:22.000 And I tell people this, Georgia is a state that respects life, and I'll be a Senator that protects life.

00:32:29.000 And then of course, there was the moment in which Herschel Walker, attempting to rip on Raphael Warnock's relationship with the police, pulled his police badge.

00:32:34.000 Here's what that looked like.

00:32:36.000 One thing I have not done, I've never pretended to be a police officer, and I've never threatened a shootout with the police.

00:32:49.000 And now I have to respond to that.

00:32:51.000 We are moving on, gentlemen.

00:32:52.000 No, no, no, I have to respond to that.

00:32:54.000 And you know what's so funny?

00:32:56.000 I am with many police officers.

00:32:59.000 So here's the bottom line.

00:33:01.000 Candidate Quality Matters, Brian Kemp, is going to run away with the governor's race in Georgia in the same race.

00:33:05.000 It's going to be a dogfight between Hershel Walker and Raphael Warnock.

00:33:09.000 If you're asking me who I think is going to win that thing, I actually think the Walker is going to pull that one out.

00:33:13.000 It's very close right now.

00:33:14.000 I think on day of you're going to get very, very high Republican turnout.

00:33:16.000 You're going to get a little bit depressed Democratic turnout.

00:33:18.000 And what that says to me is that Raphael Warnock may exit the Senate, even though Hershel Walker is not a particularly good candidate.

00:33:24.000 Now, meanwhile, again, as I say, one of the things that is, that is noticeable is candidate quality in state after state.

00:33:31.000 So Nevada, Nevada is a state that leans Democrat.

00:33:33.000 Nevada is a purple to blue state.

00:33:36.000 And in the current Nevada Senate race, right now, Adam Laxalt has a slight lead over Catherine Cortez Masto.

00:33:43.000 In that particular race, out of the last six polls, Laxalt leads five of them.

00:33:48.000 He has about a 1.7% Advantage on Cortez Masto.

00:33:54.000 Cortez Masto is trailing so badly at this point.

00:33:57.000 She's having such a bad run of it that she's still running introduction to herself ads at this late stage in the campaign.

00:34:02.000 And remember, she's the incumbent.

00:34:03.000 You shouldn't have to run, hey, remember me ads at the late stage of the campaign, but that's exactly what she has to do because Laxalt has done a good job sort of pinning her down. 1.00

00:34:11.000 Here's Cortez Masto's ad.

00:34:13.000 Some of my favorite memories are from around this table.

00:34:16.000 Aunts.

00:34:17.000 Cousins.

00:34:18.000 All of us sharing dinners at my grandmother's.

00:34:21.000 Hearing stories about how so many came to this country, worked hard, and raised our family.

00:34:26.000 Everything I am is thanks to them.

00:34:29.000 It's what drives me to stand up for hardworking Nevadans.

00:34:32.000 To lower costs.

00:34:34.000 And to put families first.

00:34:36.000 I'm Catherine Cortez Masto, and I'll never forget where I come from.

00:34:40.000 That's why I approve this message.

00:34:43.000 Okay, so again, she is running as a moderate.

00:34:45.000 Notice how far away she's running from sort of the typical Democratic rhetoric here. 0.94

00:34:48.000 I'm here to lower costs, and I'm here to make sure that families have food to keep on the table.

00:34:52.000 Again, this is all very rote kind of stuff.

00:34:55.000 Meanwhile, Adam Laxalt, the Republican, is running ads that are going straight to the heart of what voters want to hear.

00:35:01.000 Here's Adam Laxalt.

00:35:03.000 I'm Adam Laxalt and I approve this message.

00:35:05.000 Catherine Cortez Masto pretends to support law enforcement.

00:35:08.000 But voted to rubber stamp radical officials.

00:35:11.000 Including activists who refused to prosecute drug dealers.

00:35:14.000 And supported defunding police.

00:35:16.000 Cortez Masto called police racist.

00:35:19.000 And when a local officer was shot in the head.

00:35:21.000 During riots she encouraged.

00:35:23.000 She didn't say a word.

00:35:24.000 We retract our endorsement.

00:35:25.000 We retract our endorsement.

00:35:26.000 We retract our endorsement of Catherine Cortez Masto.

00:35:29.000 Catherine Cortez Masto is dangerous for police. 1.00

00:35:32.000 And dangerous for Nevada. 0.96

00:35:34.000 Okay, that's a pretty hard-hitting ad there from the Republicans.

00:35:37.000 And of course, Laxalt has made Cortez Masto the issue in that particular race.

00:35:42.000 So again, another one of these rules here.

00:35:43.000 Candidate quality matters.

00:35:44.000 Also, if you have a good candidate, they're capable of shifting the focus onto the person on the other side of the aisle.

00:35:50.000 And that's actually what is happening right now in Wisconsin as well.

00:35:53.000 We'll get some more on this in just a second.

00:35:55.000 We are celebrating a huge win this month in the fight against transing the children. 1.00

00:35:58.000 Vanderbilt Hospital has now agreed to pause all gender transition surgeries on minors.

00:36:02.000 But the fight is far from over.

00:36:04.000 There's still so much we can do to protect our kids from this evil leftist indoctrination, or to protect your kids generally.

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00:37:37.000 Alrighty, so, other states that are up for grabs right now.

00:37:39.000 That Wisconsin Senate race between Ron Johnson, who's the incumbent, and Mandela Barnes, the current Lieutenant Governor of Wisconsin.

00:37:44.000 That one is also close, but Johnson seems to now be opening a very significant gap.

00:37:48.000 In the latest Marquette poll, Johnson is up 6.

00:37:50.000 CBS News' YouGov has Johnson up 1.

00:37:52.000 Fox News has Johnson up 5.

00:37:54.000 Again, this was a race that Democrats thought that they had locked up just a few months ago, when Barnes was up 5 to 7 points in this particular race.

00:38:02.000 As the election has gotten closer, people have begun to refocus their minds a little bit on what actually matters to them.

00:38:07.000 And you can see the difference between Mandela Barnes and Ron Johnson, what their focus is, in the way that they went after each other in their latest Senate debate.

00:38:17.000 So here's Mandela Barnes, here's his closing statement at the debate.

00:38:21.000 I really appreciate this opportunity, and while the Senator wants to lie and distract and hide from his own record, and while he subscribes to the politics of division, what he doesn't realize is that each and every one of us in all 72 counties in this state has so much more in common with each other than we'll ever have with self-serving, out-of-touch politicians.

00:38:38.000 Now, unfortunately, for the last 12 years, we've experienced the failures of his leadership and his representation.

00:38:46.000 Women's lives and women's health are on the line.

00:38:49.000 For our veterans who may have been victims of burn pits, you don't want a senator who's going to play politics with your life.

00:38:54.000 For our retirees, we don't want a person who's going to take your retirement away from you, what you've worked hard for your entire life.

00:39:01.000 Working people live with the constant threat of their jobs being shipped out of state or overseas.

00:39:06.000 Our democracy hangs in the balance.

00:39:09.000 What you heard there from Mandela Barnes is joy-read scaremongering, right?

00:39:11.000 You got the abortion, you got he's going to take your Medicare away, he's going to take your Medicaid away, all the rest of this kind of stuff.

00:39:16.000 Meanwhile, Ron Johnson is slamming Joe Biden on spending, which again is an idea that I think is going to go over a lot better with the voters of Wisconsin than Mandela Barnes talking about, for example, abortion or January 6th.

00:39:27.000 To understand what caused these 40-year high inflation rates.

00:39:32.000 It's out of control deficit spending.

00:39:34.000 I voted against most of it.

00:39:36.000 But, unfortunately, President Biden, when he came into office, put forward another $1.9 trillion COVID relief package when we had a trillion and a quarter left unspent from the previous COVID relief packages.

00:39:49.000 You can hear the real contrast between Johnson and Barnes when it comes to policing.

00:39:52.000 So the solution is stop the deficit spending, stop growing our debt. But understand that every dollar you held at the start of the Biden administration is now worth only 88.3 cents.

00:40:03.000 It's crushing everyone, but it's particularly crushing seniors on a fixed income.

00:40:07.000 You can hear the real contrast between Johnson and Barnes when it comes to policing. So Johnson's main focus is Mandela, you helped incite riots in Kenosha.

00:40:15.000 And Mandela Barnes's response is, Well, January 6th ain't gonna cut as much ice as, you know, they burned down an entire city in Wisconsin while Lieutenant Governor and Governor did very little about it.

00:40:25.000 This is also telling.

00:40:26.000 I mean, look at Ron Johnson's ad against Mandela Barnes on the same topic.

00:40:30.000 Breaking news in Dallas, Texas, where at least five police officers were killed when they were ambushed.

00:40:36.000 This was the deadliest day for U.S.

00:40:38.000 law enforcement since 9-11.

00:40:40.000 Just days after this horrific crime, Mandela Barnes appeared on Vladimir Putin's propaganda news outlet and rationalized violence against American police officers.

00:40:49.000 Police officers are overexercising their badness.

00:40:52.000 This probably was a retaliatory attack.

00:40:54.000 Do you want Mandela Barnes representing you in the Senate?

00:40:58.000 I'm Ron Johnson and I approve this message.

00:41:01.000 That policing ad is going to be effective.

00:41:02.000 That is why Ron Johnson is starting to pull away in that race.

00:41:05.000 Meanwhile, in Arizona, you're starting to see the same sort of effect that you're seeing in Georgia.

00:41:09.000 In the governor's race, a candidate is doing better.

00:41:11.000 And in the senatorial race, a candidate is doing worse.

00:41:15.000 One, Kerry Lake in Arizona is doing better because it turns out that she's actually very talented on the campaign trail in a way that Blake Masters may not be.

00:41:23.000 In that polling right now, Kerry Lake is up just slightly in this race.

00:41:27.000 And she's tied in the CBS YouGov poll with Katie Hobbs, she's up three points in the Ohio Predictive Insights poll, and in the Fox 10 Insider Advantage poll, she's up three points as well.

00:41:38.000 That is because, again, Carrie Lake, even her opponents will acknowledge that she's excellent on TV, that she knows how to work a room, she knows how to work a camera. 1.00

00:41:46.000 There's a very bizarre article from The Atlantic trying to rip into Carrie Lake, but even the author of the article, Elaine Godfrey, who seems to need to smoke a cigarette after writing this thing, here's how she describes following around Lake's campaign.

00:41:59.000 She says, quote, the way Lake has imitated Trump's rhetoric is obvious, but as I've followed her in the months since, something else has become clear. She's much better at this than Trump's other emulators. That makes sense, given her first career in front of the camera, cultivating trust among thousands of Maricopa County viewers. But this is more than an imitation. Lake has made MAGA her own. She's agile as a politician in a way that other high-profile Trump-endorsed candidates are not. She's more likable than Senate hopefuls like Blake Masters or J.D. Vance.

00:42:23.000 Lake is neck and neck in her race in Arizona. 1.00

00:42:25.000 She arguably has a better chance than any other famous Trump endorsee this cycle.

00:42:28.000 She really is the candidate that Trump picked who is doing the best, and most clearly doing the best.

00:42:34.000 Again, J.D.

00:42:34.000 Vance may win his seat in Ohio, but he's underperforming the Republican general percentage of the electorate.

00:42:39.000 In Ohio, Hershel Walker is running neck and neck in a race that really should be easy for Republicans to win in Georgia.

00:42:45.000 Dr. Oz is running a very neck and neck race in Pennsylvania, as we'll get to in just one moment.

00:42:50.000 But, Carrie Lake happens to be. 1.00

00:42:51.000 Again, you'll run across candidates like this.

00:42:52.000 Candidate quality matters.

00:42:53.000 She's uniquely talented.

00:42:54.000 Listen to how this Atlantic author describes Carrie Lake.

00:42:57.000 Lake stood so close I could see the different shades of brown in her irises.

00:43:00.000 Sweat dripped down my back.

00:43:02.000 I've read your work, she said.

00:43:03.000 There's a seductive power to Lake's voice. 0.87

00:43:05.000 Deep but feminine. 0.99

00:43:06.000 Firm, even severe but smooth.

00:43:08.000 Like black tea with a little honey.

00:43:09.000 What?

00:43:13.000 But again, either Carrie Lake is an excellent candidate or this lady's got a screw loose. 1.00

00:43:17.000 But bottom line here is that Katie Hobbs, who's running against Carrie Lake, she also made a huge boo-boo here because she actually ducked a debate and then got fact-checked on it. 1.00

00:43:28.000 And she said that Lake had ducked an interview and she got fact-checked on it by Dana Bash of CNN.

00:43:34.000 Look, Carrie Lake has made it clear time and time again that she's not interested in having substantive, in-depth conversations about the issues that matter to Arizonans. 0.97

00:43:44.000 She only wants a scenario where she can control the dialogue, and she's refused to sit down in a one-on-one lengthy conversation to really clarify with Arizonans where she is on the issues. 1.00

00:43:55.000 She's the one who's afraid of talking to voters where she's at, and we are doing everything we can to take To make our case directly to the voters of Arizona.

00:44:06.000 She just came and sat down with me and answered my questions for a lot of minutes. 0.99

00:44:12.000 Yeah.

00:44:12.000 A lot of Democrats are questioning your decision and they're saying, you know, it's the wrong decision.

00:44:17.000 President Biden's former 2020 co-chair said, I would debate and I would want the people of Arizona to know what my platform is.

00:44:26.000 If you think she's as dangerous as you're saying to democracy, is it your responsibility as a candidate who wants to run Arizona to show and explain who their alternative is?

00:44:36.000 Yeah, I mean, that's Dana Bash basically fact checking Katie Hobbs. 0.99

00:44:39.000 So Carrie Lake is benefiting from the fact that she's very good on TV. 0.99

00:44:42.000 She's also benefiting from the fact that obviously her opponent is very terrible on TV. 0.88

00:44:44.000 We haven't barely talked about the Democrats in these races, but Katie Hobbs is a particularly awful candidate. 1.00

00:44:49.000 Meanwhile, in the Arizona Senate race, Mark Kelly is up on Blake Masters.

00:44:55.000 That lead has been fairly consistent over time.

00:44:58.000 It was a lot bigger, I would say, mid-September.

00:45:00.000 Mid-September, Kelly was up about six points on Blake Masters today.

00:45:04.000 He's up about four and a half points on Blake Masters.

00:45:07.000 Masters seems to be closing the gap a little bit.

00:45:09.000 It's not quite close enough yet.

00:45:12.000 The polls would have to be significantly off in order for Masters to claim that seat right now.

00:45:16.000 He did have a good debate with Mark Kelly the other day.

00:45:19.000 In that debate, he went after Mark Kelly for his record.

00:45:22.000 Here was Blake Masters.

00:45:24.000 He's the 50th vote in the U.S.

00:45:25.000 Senate.

00:45:26.000 Joe Biden needed his vote.

00:45:27.000 Mark Kelly, a year ago, could have dug his heels in and said, Mr. President, I'm not supporting a single thing, not a single spending bill, not a single piece of your agenda, unless and until we get border security.

00:45:37.000 Biden would have had to secure the border.

00:45:39.000 Mark Kelly, if this is the result of Senator Kelly being focused on the border, my gosh, he's the most ineffective and worst senator of all time.

00:45:47.000 Now again, this is the right message for Blake Masters to be promoting.

00:45:50.000 The problem is that the ads that he has been promoting up till now have been issue ads that actually don't cut in his favor.

00:45:54.000 So for example, I'm not sure why he thought that this was, for example, a very good ad.

00:46:01.000 250,000 illegals cross this border every month.

00:46:05.000 This is an invasion.

00:46:07.000 We know what to do.

00:46:08.000 We need to finish Trump's wall.

00:46:11.000 We need five times more border patrol.

00:46:13.000 And we need technology to lock this border down.

00:46:16.000 If we don't do these things right now, we're not going to have a country.

00:46:20.000 I'm Blake Masters, and I approve this message.

00:46:22.000 President Trump endorsed me because he knows that I'm going to secure this border.

00:46:29.000 Now again, Donald Trump did not win Arizona.

00:46:32.000 I mean, it is worth noting here that in the last election, Donald Trump did not win Arizona and his approval ratings in Arizona are not ridiculously high.

00:46:37.000 So Blake Masters citing Donald Trump twice in an ad about immigration and then adding sort of the hero music.

00:46:42.000 I like, I understand it's cool looking and it looks like the trailer for a film, but it really is not an ad that is going to get those suburban housewives to vote for Blake Masters.

00:46:51.000 Meanwhile, Mark Kelly's ads are aimed directly at those people, right?

00:46:53.000 Mark Kelly's ads are all soft and And twinkly.

00:46:56.000 Like, if you're gonna cut an ad about yourself, the general rule, if you are in a purple state, is you cut soft ads about yourself and really hardcore ads about your opponent.

00:47:03.000 You don't cut hardcore ads about yourself and then not much about your opponent.

00:47:07.000 Most of your ads actually shouldn't feature you, they should feature your opponent.

00:47:10.000 But here's an ad, like, look, this is a good ad by Mark Kelly, because, again, it completely obscures who he is, the guy who votes with Joe Biden 96% of the time.

00:47:18.000 I'm the mayor of Mesa and a Republican.

00:47:21.000 The last few years have been tough on our local businesses and our community needed help.

00:47:26.000 That's when I heard from Mark Kelly.

00:47:27.000 We may be from different political parties, but that doesn't matter for Mark.

00:47:31.000 For him, we're all on Team Arizona.

00:47:34.000 That's who Mark is.

00:47:36.000 He secured critical funding to help save our small businesses.

00:47:39.000 Mark doesn't look for ways to blame Democrats or Republicans.

00:47:42.000 He looks for a way forward.

00:47:44.000 I'm Mark Kelly and I approve this message.

00:47:47.000 Okay, again, that ad obscures who Mark Kelly is, but it basically makes me sound like a Republican, right? All these Republicans were endorsing him, he's bipartisan and all the rest. And then in the debate, this was Mark Kelly's angle on Masters, right? His angle on Masters is that Masters is kind of an extremist upstart. That's got to be the pitch.

00:48:03.000 And Mark Kelly is running a better campaign than he's being given credit for in Arizona, where really he should be on the losing end. Here's Kelly. I think we all know guys like this. You know, guys that think they know better than everyone about everything.

00:48:18.000 You know, you think you know better than women and doctors about abortion. 1.00

00:48:23.000 You even think you know better than seniors about Social Security, and you think you know better than veterans about how to win a war.

00:48:30.000 Folks, we all know guys like this, and we can't be letting them make decisions about us because it's just dangerous.

00:48:39.000 Okay, so if you're gonna ballpark this race, even though, listen, I like Blake Masters personally, I like a lot of his ideas.

00:48:44.000 With that said, I think Blake Masters is one of the weaker candidates on the Republican side of the aisle this time.

00:48:49.000 So when you look at that math again, Republicans have essentially 47 Senate seats that are very likely to be winners, including J.D.

00:48:55.000 Vance.

00:48:56.000 That means the Republicans need to take four of the following seats.

00:48:58.000 They need to take four from these.

00:49:00.000 Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

00:49:03.000 I believe they will take North Carolina, that's one.

00:49:05.000 I believe that they're going to take Wisconsin, that's two.

00:49:07.000 I believe they're going to take Nevada, that's three. Okay, so that leaves, they need to win one of the following three, Georgia, Arizona, or Pennsylvania. Georgia, Arizona, or Pennsylvania. If they are capable of taking Georgia, then all the rest of this becomes a wash, but that one is dicey.

00:49:25.000 Arizona's looking increasingly dicey.

00:49:27.000 It looks like Mark Kelly is in better position with Nancy, which brings us to Pennsylvania.

00:49:31.000 And this, of course, is highly watched mainly because here we have a very high profile Republican Senate candidate in Dr. Oz running against a guy who had a full-on stroke in the middle of this campaign and cannot speak clearly on the campaign trail.

00:49:44.000 He also happens to be an extraordinary radical.

00:49:46.000 Now, all the focus at the beginning of this campaign was on Dr. Oz.

00:49:49.000 It seems as though the worm has turned and all the focus is now on John Fetterman, which is why I believe that Dr. Oz is going to win this seat.

00:49:55.000 I think that in the end, the people of Pennsylvania are going to move away from Fetterman simply because Fetterman does not seem like he can hold it together.

00:50:02.000 Plus, he actually happens to be pretty radical.

00:50:05.000 Right now, the latest polls, including one from Daily Wire, my site, Trafalgar, show Federman is up just two, and the margin of error is 2.9.

00:50:14.000 There's a poll from the Hill Emerson, Fetterman up two, Margin Vera three.

00:50:18.000 So this thing is basically a dead heat at this point.

00:50:20.000 And there's a reason for that.

00:50:22.000 Again, Fetterman happens to be a radical candidate, but most of the criticism of Fetterman has been of the fact that he may not be mentally able at this point.

00:50:30.000 Again, John Fetterman, he refuses to put out any of his doctor's notes on his current status.

00:50:36.000 Now, if those notes were good, you think he'd be waiting for more than five seconds to put those out?

00:50:39.000 They can't be good.

00:50:40.000 Here's a bit of what John Fetterman has looked like over the past few weeks.

00:50:44.000 Being anti-union is anti-American.

00:50:51.000 What is wrong with demanding for an easy, safe kind of their income a path to a safe place for them to win?

00:51:09.000 Excuse me, to work.

00:51:11.000 Please understand the stakes in this race.

00:51:14.000 Send me to Washington D.C.

00:51:16.000 to send, so I can work with Senator Casey and I can champion the union way of life in Jersey, excuse me, in D.C.

00:51:28.000 Who would have ever thought that, who would ever think that I would be The normal one in the race area.

00:51:37.000 I gave away the lieutenant governor-governor in Pennsylvania, the only lieutenant governor in the history to do that.

00:51:43.000 And you can count on us to eliminate the filibuster and let's get some stuff done for America.

00:51:55.000 If you come out and step with us, We will be able to stand with you in D.C.

00:52:06.000 In fact, it's so bad that John Fetterman's wife actually came out over the last couple of days and called for NBC to apologize to John Fetterman.

00:52:12.000 Why?

00:52:13.000 Because NBC News' Dasha Burns conducted an interview with Fetterman and said, well, during some of those conversations before the closed captioning was rolling, it wasn't clear he could understand what we were saying.

00:52:23.000 So Fetterman's wife came out and said, I'd love to see an apology toward the disabled community from her and from her network for the damage they've caused.

00:52:29.000 So wait, is John Fetterman a part of the disabled community?

00:52:32.000 I was told that he's totally fine and that everything is totally hunky-dory at this point.

00:52:37.000 So that's just his medical condition.

00:52:39.000 And by the way, how bad is Fetterman's medical condition as an issue?

00:52:43.000 It's so bad that one of his new ads, he basically leaves off the ad by saying that he has a stroke and that's why he knows that people need more time at home.

00:52:50.000 I'm not kidding.

00:52:51.000 That's his brand new ad.

00:52:53.000 After my stroke, I was just grateful to see Giselle and our kids.

00:52:57.000 Across Pennsylvania, I keep seeing families that don't have enough time to focus on each other.

00:53:02.000 They're struggling.

00:53:03.000 Left behind.

00:53:04.000 We've got to make it easier for people to spend time with those they love.

00:53:08.000 Politicians spend so much time fighting about the things that don't matter.

00:53:12.000 I'll always be focused on what does.

00:53:15.000 Access to health care.

00:53:16.000 Lower costs.

00:53:17.000 Good jobs.

00:53:18.000 More time with those we love.

00:53:20.000 I'm John Fetterman and I approve this message.

00:53:23.000 Meanwhile, Dr. Oz is doing, again, what a typical candidate would do in a purple state.

00:53:27.000 He is running toward the middle.

00:53:29.000 So here is Dr. Oz's latest ad, talking about moderation versus extremism.

00:53:35.000 I've been thinking a lot about family and the next generation.

00:53:38.000 Today's kids aren't safe in our communities.

00:53:41.000 Inflation's making it harder to buy a house to start a family.

00:53:45.000 Guys like John Fetterman take everything to the extreme.

00:53:48.000 Why are we letting murderers out?

00:53:50.000 Why is the solution always tax and spend?

00:53:53.000 Extremism on both sides makes things worse.

00:53:56.000 We need balance.

00:53:57.000 Less extremism in Washington.

00:53:59.000 I'm running for Senate to improve people's lives.

00:54:01.000 That's what doctors do. 0.99

00:54:03.000 I'm Dr. Oz.

00:54:03.000 I approve this message.

00:54:05.000 Okay, so again, you're seeing Dr. Oz do the things he needs to do to win.

00:54:09.000 He's moving toward the center in the last couple of weeks of the election, and all the focus is on Federman.

00:54:12.000 This is why I think that Republicans are going to take Pennsylvania.

00:54:15.000 Okay, now, there's still a couple of wildcards out there.

00:54:18.000 So, you have New Hampshire.

00:54:19.000 New Hampshire is a possible wildcard.

00:54:20.000 Right now, the polling in New Hampshire is not remarkably close.

00:54:25.000 I thought this race was going to be closer than it is going to be right now by the polling and that is probably because of the nomination of Don Balduck who is a veteran but has a checkered past in terms of saying rather wild things about Donald Trump in election 2020.

00:54:38.000 Maggie Hassan right now who is very vulnerable and definitely could have lost that race. 0.96

00:54:41.000 She's running well above 50 percent in the latest poll from Fabrizio Anzalone.

00:54:45.000 She's up seven.

00:54:46.000 By averages, she's up by about 6 points.

00:54:48.000 Those are not great numbers if you're going into the election, which we are.

00:54:51.000 Meanwhile, in Colorado, the Republicans were putting a lot of faith in the idea that Joe O'Day was going to somehow be able to take on Michael Bennett.

00:54:56.000 And for a brief moment in time, it appeared that there was a narrowing in this particular race, but that moment in time seems to have passed.

00:55:02.000 Bennett right now is up in the latest polling data, 6, 9, and 6.

00:55:05.000 He's up 7.7% overall over Joe O'Day.

00:55:08.000 Now it does not help at all that Donald Trump decided to intervene in that race.

00:55:12.000 He's mad because Joe O'Day is saying that he is not a Trumpy guy.

00:55:15.000 And so Trump put out a full statement about how Joe O'Day is a terrible person and he hopes he loses, which of course is wildly helpful. 0.99

00:55:22.000 And we've already seen at least two Georgia Senate seats go down to flaming defeat because of a Donald Trump in 2020.

00:55:28.000 So, intervening in the Colorado race, he's not going to be the reason that Joe O'Day loses if Joe O'Day loses, but he's certainly not helping.

00:55:35.000 You don't want the former president of the United States so concerned with what a random Senate candidate in Colorado is saying about him that he is now handing the seat back to Michael Bennett.

00:55:43.000 By the way, I'm not sure that Michael Bennett likes Donald Trump more than Joe O'Day does, although he's probably going to owe more to Donald Trump than Joe O'Day does.

00:55:49.000 Okay, meanwhile, there's one other seat That is now in apparently hot water, possibly for Republicans.

00:55:55.000 That, of course, is the seat in Utah.

00:55:57.000 So this is one that really should not even be close, right?

00:55:59.000 Mike Lee won his last election with like 70% of the vote.

00:56:04.000 But right now, the polling seems to be drawing a lot closer.

00:56:06.000 I don't think that this is going to fall out of Republicans' favor, in favor of Evan McMuffin.

00:56:12.000 But Democrats and Independents are apparently placing their hopes on Evan McMuffin.

00:56:16.000 You remember him.

00:56:17.000 He tried to run against Trump in 2016, failed dramatically.

00:56:21.000 According to Axios, McMullen is challenging incumbent GOP Senator Mike Lee.

00:56:26.000 They do have a debate.

00:56:27.000 McMullen is an anti-Trump so-called conservative, but he's going to caucus with the Democrats.

00:56:32.000 He's challenging Senator Lee, who is an incumbent.

00:56:34.000 Senator Lee is a constitutional conservative.

00:56:36.000 He votes in extraordinarily limited government ways.

00:56:41.000 The big problem in this particular race is that Lee has not been endorsed by Mitt Romney.

00:56:45.000 So Mitt Romney's been sitting out there doing his holier-than-thou routine with regard to Mike Lee.

00:56:48.000 Nobody really understands why.

00:56:50.000 Nobody really understands why exactly Mitt Romney would want Evan McMuffin to be in that seat, caucusing with the Democrats, possibly handing control of the Senate over to the Democrats.

00:56:59.000 There was a Deseret News-Hinckley Institute of Politics poll released last week that found that 41% of registered voters said they would cast a ballot for Lee.

00:57:06.000 37% said they would vote for Evan McMullin.

00:57:09.000 McMullen tries to suggest, of course, that Lee was sort of in league with Donald Trump to overthrow the election result.

00:57:17.000 Utah's Democrats have now voted to back McMullen over one of their own during the primaries to increase their chances of defeating Mike Lee.

00:57:24.000 That's because Utah's utens will not elect Democrats to the United States Senate.

00:57:30.000 The Senate race comes six years after McMullin tried to run for president in 2016.

00:57:33.000 He did get 21.5% of votes in Utah, which is the highest support for an independent presidential candidate since 1992 when Ross Perot was running.

00:57:42.000 Lee is still in the driver's seat, pretty obviously.

00:57:45.000 But the simple fact that Mitt Romney refuses once again to endorse Lee is really extraordinary.

00:57:52.000 Again, I've defended Romney from time to time when I think that he's doing stuff based on principle.

00:57:56.000 I don't understand the principle of you support the guy who's going to support the Democrats.

00:57:59.000 I don't get it at all.

00:58:02.000 Romney apparently had made it clear for months that he would stay neutral in Lee's run for a third term against McMullin.

00:58:07.000 It was not swayed, according to the Washington Post, by state GOP chairman Carson Jorgensen, who said he pressed Lee's case with Romney earlier this year and again last week with Romney's staff.

00:58:15.000 A Republican candidate should be supporting their Republican colleagues.

00:58:17.000 That's all there is to it, Jorgensen said in an interview.

00:58:20.000 Now, Lee on national television has urged Romney to reconsider in the final weeks.

00:58:25.000 All 48 of my other Republican colleagues are on board with me.

00:58:27.000 It's not too late, Mitt.

00:58:29.000 Apparently the stalemate over Romney's endorsement appears unchanged.

00:58:32.000 This is madness.

00:58:33.000 And meanwhile, Romney, his team is now leaking to the Washington Post.

00:58:36.000 Romney aides irked by Lee Plee for support, highlighting GOP- Why exactly should he be irked?

00:58:41.000 Why doesn't he just support him?

00:58:43.000 What exactly is supposed to be the big complaint about Mike Lee?

00:58:46.000 Okay, so supposedly the complaint is that Mike Lee was texting with people inside the Trump administration.

00:58:54.000 He voted to certify Trump's loss last year.

00:58:57.000 He told Mark Meadows the states had not given lawmakers legal grounds to object and that they needed the Constitution on our side.

00:59:04.000 Apparently that wasn't enough for either Mitt Romney or for Evan McMuffin.

00:59:09.000 And so McMuffin tried to basically lie and suggest that Lee had betrayed the Constitution.

00:59:16.000 Here's McMullen in debate.

00:59:18.000 But for you to talk about the importance of the Electoral College, I think, is rich.

00:59:22.000 I think you know exactly how important it is, and I think you knew how important it was when you sought to urge the White House that had lost an election to find fake electors to overturn the will of the people.

00:59:34.000 Senator Lee, that was the most egregious betrayal of our nation's Constitution in its history by a U.S.

00:59:42.000 Senator, I believe, and it will be your legacy.

00:59:45.000 Okay, so he did vote, but again, McMullen apparently is attempting to push this position anyway.

00:59:56.000 Lee then responded by saying, basically, you vote for McMullen, you're voting for the Democrats, which of course is true.

01:00:01.000 You have sought for, actively courted, and obtained the endorsement of the Democratic Party.

01:00:06.000 You've raised millions of dollars from ActBlue, the database on which far-left, progressive, socialist, Democratic donors can be found.

01:00:17.000 And then you have, in the last quarter alone, spent $1.6 million feeding the Democratic industrial complex.

01:00:24.000 So it's not surprising to me that you would come here today and spout not only lies, but lies that are specific to the leftist cause, lies that are specific to the Democratic Party, and lies that certainly are not applicable to me.

01:00:38.000 So bottom line is, so I think that Mike Lee's gonna lose that seat.

01:00:40.000 I would be very doubtful that Mike Lee loses that seat.

01:00:42.000 The fact that it has come down to this at all is kind of a ridiculous situation, given how red Utah is, and given the fact that Mitt Romney could solve all of this simply by moving along here.

01:00:53.000 But Mitt Romney apparently won't.

01:00:55.000 Once again, the sort of holier-than-thou here is rather astonishing, because Mike Lee did vote in favor of the certification of the election.

01:01:02.000 All right, we've reached the end of today's show.

01:01:04.000 We'll be back here with much, much more tomorrow.

The Ben Shapiro Show - October 19, 2022

It’s Election Season Crunch Time | Ep. 1592

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