New polling shows Republicans jumping into the lead on the congressional generic ballot, and we examine all the closest Senate races state by state. Today s show is sponsored by ExpressVPN. Thousands of my listeners have already secured their network data, join them at ExpressVPN and get 50% off your first month with discount code SHIPCRYPTALK. That is at Parcast, promo code Shapiro to get started FREE! Subscribe to my new podcast CRIMES OF PASSION where I break down what s really going on in the world and give you actionable advice to help you take control of your life and stop letting Wall Street dictate your every decision. If you like what you hear, please HIT SUBSCRIBE and become a supporter of my new show CRimes of PASSION on Apple Podcasts and wherever else you get your news and information. I'll be looking over the best ones on the web and giving you the best listening experience possible. Thank you so much for your support, stay safe and keep safe, and Don't Tell A Friend About It! Ben Shapiro - The Ben Shapiro Show is Sponsored By: ExpressVPN - Use Promo Code Shapiro to Get 50% Off Your First Month of Submitted Submitted Mailing Me a FREEbie! - The Shapiro Show - Subscribe To My Insta-Friendship - Subscribe to My Story! - Get Exclusive Discounts & Support My Story Will Include VIP Discounts! - Watch Me On Prime Video - Get My Freebie Code Shapiro Will Be Accepted By Prime Minister Will Be Given Out Of My Third Episode Soon? Click Here To Watch My Complete Guide To Watch The Final Episode Of The Show Will Be Released On Prime Place On Prime Cast? Subscribe To Watch Him Completely Hear Him Hear Me On The Third Episode Of This Is Also Hear Me Hear How I Will Be Recorded On My Final Episode And Other Places I Will Hear How To Hear My Final Speech On This Will Be Saved And Hear Him See My Final Story And Hear More Will Be In A Third Party Call Out My Speech And Access And Access Is Also Be Recorded And Hear My Story And Others Will Be Accessed In Other Places And Access Anybody Gets A Free Call On My Third Party Opportunity Will Be Spied On Third Party Access Is Being Recorded And Recorded In A Second Party Call Call Out And Access Speech And Other Access Call And Access Or Access Is Recorded And A Recorded In Third Party Speech And A Free Speech Is Also Recorded And Access Call?
00:00:00.000New polling shows Republicans jumping into the lead on the congressional generic ballot, and we examine all the closest Senate races state by state.
00:00:20.000Slash Ben will get to all the news in just one moment.
00:00:22.000First, the Labor Department's Consumer Price Index, which catalogs the cost of goods, services, food, and rent, rose 0.4% over the month of August, double what many economists had anticipated.
00:00:30.000Perhaps worse, core inflation that excludes food and gas prices saw the highest increase last month it's seen since August of 1982.
00:00:37.000So, what exactly is the current administration doing to stop the inflation?
00:00:40.000Well, they passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which was only like, you know, Trillion dollars for nothing?
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00:02:37.000The crosstabs are significantly worse for the Democrats.
00:02:40.000month of coverage. That is at PeerTalk.com, promo code Shapiro to get started. Well, there's a brand new New York Times poll out and what it shows is that Republicans have now jumped into a four point lead. The cross tabs are significantly worse for the Democrats. This is going to have a significant effect on the US.
00:02:57.000Right now, real clear politics suggests that Republicans are probably going to net a couple of seats, which would put them in the majority.
00:03:02.000Essentially, the races right now that are hot in the Senate boil down to Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, maybe New Hampshire, maybe Colorado.
00:03:13.000And we're going to go through these state by state.
00:03:15.000But to understand what exactly is happening here, you have to understand that the chief issue is absolutely the economy.
00:03:21.000And this is what this New York Times Siena poll shows.
00:03:23.000What it shows is that 64% of likely voters believe the country is moving in the wrong direction, which means doom for the party in power, especially if it's a unified party in power controlling the House, the Senate, and the presidency.
00:03:35.000This poll shows that just 39% somewhat or strongly approve of Joe Biden.
00:03:41.000As opposed to 58% who say they somewhat disapprove or strongly disapprove of Joe Biden.
00:03:45.000Those are terrible numbers for the President of the United States.
00:03:48.000In fact, they are lower numbers than President Trump currently has.
00:03:51.000Trump currently has a 43% approval rating, 53% unfavorable rating.
00:03:56.000It is worth noting here, when it comes to the exact issues that are supposedly on the radar of voters, likely voters, 26% say the economy is their number one issue.
00:04:08.00018% say inflation or the cost of living is their number one issue.
00:04:12.000No other issue here, with the exception of just the state of democracy, ranks above 8%.
00:04:18.000So that means 44% of voters say that their top issues are issues that cut in favor of Republicans. 44%.
00:04:31.000Crime is a 3% issue in terms of what is your top issue.
00:04:33.000The state of democracy is an 8% issue.
00:04:35.000As we'll see, however, the state of democracy is too vague because when you actually look at the partisan breakdown in terms of what people think they're talking about when they say the state of democracy, very wide discrepancy between what Republicans believe they're talking about and what Democrats believe they're talking about.
00:04:49.000And again, these numbers are fairly consistent in terms of the economy across the party ID.
00:04:54.000So 35% of Republicans say the economy is their top issue.
00:04:57.00026% of Independents say it's their top issue.
00:05:00.00017% of Democrats say it is their top issue.
00:05:17.000So it's really kind of... For Republicans, their second issue is immigration.
00:05:20.000For Democrats, their second issue is abortion.
00:05:24.000And then when you go down to the state of democracy, what you see is that 11% of Democrats say that this is their main issue, meaning it's slightly above abortion actually, so abortion comes in number three.
00:05:33.0009% of Democrats and 9% of Independents and 4% of Republicans.
00:05:37.000Now, what's really fascinating about this poll is what it shows is actually fairly broad spectrum agreement on a fair number of issues that demonstrate the difference between the online reality and the real world.
00:05:47.000And this is important because candidates who tend to cater to the online reality are going to suffer in the polls.
00:05:51.000And we're going to see this when we go state by state.
00:05:53.000The candidates who tend to be very online are the ones who are doing worse.
00:05:56.000The ones who tend to be out there hobnobbing with the actual voters and trying to cater to actual human beings, those are the ones who are doing better.
00:06:03.000The reason I say this is because if you look at this poll, they ask some interesting questions.
00:06:07.000They said, thinking about the people you meet, do you think other people's political views tell you a lot about whether someone is a good person, a little about whether someone is a good person, or don't tell you anything about whether someone is a good person?
00:06:18.000And what they found is only 14% of people said that someone's political views told you a lot about whether someone's a good person, 35% said it told you a little, and 39% said it didn't tell you anything at all.
00:06:28.000And those numbers are really, really consistent between Republicans and Democrats, actually.
00:06:33.00019% of Democrats say that politics tells you a lot about whether somebody is a good person.
00:06:39.00015% of Republicans, 8% of Independents think it tells you a lot about a person, what their politics are, whether they are a good person or not.
00:06:45.000Only 20% of likely voters say they've had disagreements recently with family or friends over political issues that hurt the relationship.
00:06:53.000And again, these numbers are fairly consistent.
00:06:54.000That's 23% of Democrats, 16% of Republicans, 20% of Independents.
00:06:58.000The vast majority of Americans are happy to have conversations with their family and friends, even if they differ on politics.
00:07:05.000There's also broad-spectrum agreement that the government mainly works to benefit powerful elites.
00:07:10.000Now, one of the things that's shocking here, actually, is actually a shocking question.
00:07:14.000When you look at the party breakdown, 75% of Republicans believe the government is there to benefit powerful elites.
00:07:21.00069% of independents say the same thing.
00:07:25.000So Democrats are not aligned with independents here.
00:07:29.000And when it comes to whether the president should follow existing rules, there's actually a fairly consistent level of agreement between Republicans and Democrats that the president shouldn't just violate the law willy-nilly.
00:07:39.000So if you have a very online president who's just willing to, say, relieve student loan debt without any further discussion about the legality of that, that actually is not something that's going to be wildly popular with any element of the political spectrum.
00:07:52.000As far as the question that the media have really pumped up about whether America's political system is on the verge of bankruptcy, whether wide-scale violence is going to break out, apparently about 46% of likely voters say that the American political system can still address the nation's problems.
00:08:09.00048% say it's too divided politically to solve its problems.
00:08:11.000Now, the reality is that most of the nation's problems are not solvable politically.
00:08:15.000Most of them are going to have to happen socially, in your community, in your family.
00:08:19.000But, again, very consistent numbers here.
00:08:22.00046% of Democrats, 46% of Republicans, 47% of Independents believe that the government can still address the nation's problems.
00:08:29.000As opposed to 45% of Democrats, 49% of Republicans, 51% of Independents who believe that we are now too divided politically to solve America's problems.
00:08:37.000As far as whether American democracy is currently under threat, again, very consistent numbers.
00:08:42.000Most Americans believe that American democracy is currently under threat.
00:08:46.000They just believe that based on varying sources of the threat.
00:08:49.000Democrats here say, presumably, Donald Trump is the biggest threat.
00:08:53.000Republicans say that the biggest threat is Democrats.
00:08:59.000But what this really shows is that when you get beyond President Trump, there actually is fairly broad scale agreement that the government is not supposed to overstep its boundaries, that the government is not capable of solving all of our problems, That the major threats to democracy are basically about our inability to get along?
00:09:17.000By the way, 54% of independents believe that the media is a major threat to our democracy.
00:09:28.000I will say that even among Democrats, 67% say that the mainstream media is either a major or a minor threat to democracy, which is kind of astonishing.
00:09:49.000recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months.
00:09:51.000A new Bloomberg economics model projections a blow to President Joe Biden's economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.
00:09:57.000The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 23 hitting 100%.
00:10:06.000hitting 100% that is up 65 from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.
00:10:13.000The model is more certain of a recession than other forecasts.
00:10:16.000A separate Bloomberg survey of 42 economists predicts the probability of a recession over the next 12 months is now 60% up from 50% a month early.
00:10:23.000Now remember a couple of months ago, a majority of economists were saying, ah, probably there won't be a recession.
00:10:27.000I was saying, nope, there definitely is going to be a recession.
00:10:29.000Now the models are beginning to match what I was telling you about.
00:10:32.000According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S.
00:10:33.000is forecast to enter a recession in the coming 12 months as the Federal Reserve battles to bring down persistently high inflation, the economy contracts, and employers cut jobs in response, according to the Wall Street Journal's latest survey of economists.
00:10:44.000On average, economists put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 63%.
00:10:49.000Their forecasts for 2023 are increasingly gloomy.
00:10:52.000Economists now expect gross domestic product to contract in the first two quarters of the year, a downgrade from the last quarterly survey where they penciled in mild growth.
00:10:59.000On average, the economists now predict GDP will contract at a 0.2% annual rate in the first quarter of 2023 and shrink 0.1% in the second quarter.
00:11:07.000In July's survey, they expected a 0.8% growth rate in the first quarter and a 1% growth rate in the second.
00:11:13.000So that is a wild... I mean, that is a significant shift.
00:11:17.000You're talking about a shift of a full percentage point here in both the growth rate in the first quarter and the growth rate in the second quarter.
00:11:31.000Employers are expected to respond to lower growth and weaker profits by cutting jobs in the second and third quarters.
00:11:36.000Economists believe nonfarm payrolls will decline by $34,000 a month on average in the second quarter, $38,000 in the third quarter.
00:11:42.000According to the last survey, they expect employers to add about 65,000 jobs a month in those two quarters.
00:11:47.000Again, the inability here of the Federal Reserve to achieve a soft landing after jacking up the amount of money in the economy by injecting $7 trillion into the economy and placing the interest rates at zero.
00:11:57.000Now that you have to ramp up those interest rates spectacularly, it would be a shock if there weren't some sort of crash right here.
00:12:02.000Meanwhile, Joe Biden is trying to happy talk his way through this with a mouthful of ice cream.
00:12:05.000Here was the president over the last couple of days.
00:12:08.000I'm not sure that Republicans could have cut a better ad than Joe Biden with his mouthful of ice cream mumbling to people that our economy is strong as hell, in his words.
00:13:29.000On inflation, can you give us a timeline?
00:13:31.000You've laid out eloquently what the President's been doing.
00:13:33.000Is there a timeline for when Americans can start feeling some economic pain or relief?
00:13:38.000So, in regards to the Inflation Reduction Act, early next year, they will see some of the pieces of that, when you think about energy costs, when you think about the Medicare kind of benefits from that.
00:13:53.000So we'll see some movement on that early next year.
00:13:58.000Do you feel convinced by Corinne Jean-Pierre right there?
00:14:02.000She seems well in control of her talking points about the strength of the American economy.
00:14:06.000No wonder that while Democrats are slightly favored to win the U.S.
00:14:09.000Senate in 538, those odds are dropping fairly dramatically.
00:14:12.000Just a couple of weeks ago, those numbers were closer to 80% that Democrats were going to take the Senate.
00:14:16.000Now they're about 64% to take the Senate.
00:14:18.000Those numbers are going to keep coming down.
00:14:20.000And the reason they're going to keep coming down is because again, voters are now in the late stages shifting Toward the economy, which is always what happens.
00:14:29.000A few months before every election, there seems to be a tightening as people get distracted.
00:14:32.000Abortion was going to be the major issue.
00:14:33.000And then it turns out that people start going back to their pocketbooks right before an election and they blame the party in power when the economy looks bad.
00:14:41.000According to columnist Douglas Shane and Andrew Stein for the Wall Street Journal, the Republican Party is on the cusp of a substantial midterm election victory that could rival their wins in 1994 and 2010.
00:14:50.000There's been a three-point swing to Republicans in the generic ballot polling in just the last month, according to the RealClearPolitics average.
00:14:56.000Democrats led by as much as 1.3 points in September.
00:14:59.000As of Monday, Republicans were up 1.8.
00:15:01.000A late September ABC News Washington Post poll found the Republican advantage concentrated where it's needed most.
00:15:05.000The GOP had a five-point lead among likely voters nationwide, but a 21-point margin in competitive congressional districts.
00:15:12.000So what that means is that, again, overall, Democrats are showing up to vote in Democratic districts, but in the swing districts, Republicans are doing really, really well.
00:15:20.000Other battleground district polls from CBS News, Economist, YouGov, and CNN showed the GOP with a much narrower lead, but a consistent one.
00:16:31.000Her name is not, it does not belie her attitude.
00:16:35.000She says, quote, Now, again, this is where I go back to the idea that the online is not the real world.
00:16:40.000In the real world, people care about the fact that they are paying 10% more for their goods than they were last year.
00:16:43.000student loan relief because they think giving Republicans the power to investigate Hunter Biden will bring down gas prices.
00:16:48.000Now, again, this is where I go back to the idea that the online is not the real world.
00:16:53.000In the real world, people care about the fact that they are paying 10% more for their goods than they were last year and a lot more than they were two years ago.
00:17:00.000In the real world, people care about the fact that they may lose their job next year.
00:17:03.000In the real world, businesses are looking at their future profits and they're shuddering.
00:17:08.000In the real world, people are looking at Joe Biden's spending policy and realizing it's really, really bad.
00:17:13.000Or they're looking at Joe Biden's foreign policy and realizing that's not particularly good either.
00:17:16.000In Joy Reid's world, we are on the verge of literal fascism.
00:17:21.000We're on the verge of women being reduced to the state of serfs.
00:17:24.000Like we're going to make them work in the field and give a percentage of their earnings to the Lord.
00:17:31.000The Republicans are going to use the right of droit de seigneur.
00:17:36.000They're going to go back to prima nocte.
00:17:39.000What in the world is she talking about?
00:17:42.000But this is for people who are wildly disconnected from reality.
00:17:45.000And it turns out that elections are not wildly disconnected from reality.
00:17:48.000They tend to be very much connected to reality.
00:17:50.000So what does that mean on a case-by-case basis?
00:17:52.000So we're going to go through some of these states and we're going to look at which races are close Which ones are close that should not be close?
00:17:59.000And which ones are basically lost causes for Democrats?
00:18:02.000We'll get to more on this in just one moment first.
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00:19:09.000You know, there are trend lines, and those trend lines suggest Republicans are about to do very well in the Senate, and they're about to do very well in the House.
00:19:15.000And then, candidate quality matters an awful lot when it comes to the Senate.
00:19:19.000So when you go state by state, what you see is that there are certain candidates who are underperforming and certain candidates who seem to be a little bit overperforming.
00:19:25.000So in Ohio, for example, the Ohio polling right now shows that J.D.
00:19:29.000Vance has about a two-point lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average against Tim Ryan.
00:19:34.000Tim Ryan is a congressperson from Ohio.
00:19:36.000He ran for president last time around.
00:19:38.000And there's no poll with Vance outside of about a four point lead.
00:19:42.000There are very few polls with Ryan with a lead, but Vance is not ahead by a tremendous number.
00:19:47.000He's not at 50% in any poll in the last couple of months.
00:19:51.000The reason for that is because even though Ohio is a very red state now, I remember Donald Trump won Ohio by a significant percentage, I believe by about 10 percentage points in the last election cycle.
00:20:09.000Vance has been responding to a lot of the accusations by Democrats that he is a racist by responding in almost Trumpian fashion in some ways.
00:20:17.000He has been talking a lot about trade policy.
00:20:20.000He's been talking about things that people care about on Twitter a little bit more than the stuff that he actually used to write about when he was writing Hillbillyology.
00:20:29.000If he'd been the candidate of Hillbilly Elegy, I think he's up 10 right now.
00:20:32.000Instead, he seems to be the candidate of sort of populist onlinedom.
00:20:36.000Now, he can still pull out that race in Ohio, because Ohio is a very heavy red state.
00:20:39.000He should win that race by a more significant percentage than he is currently leading that race in Ohio, however.
00:21:13.000And if you look at that New York Times poll again, what you see is that among independents who actually believe that there's a quote-unquote threat to democracy, and about 9% of independents do, they predominantly agree with Democrats that Donald Trump is the chief threat.
00:21:24.000Okay, so what that means is that the more, as I've said before, the more people are talking about Trump going into the midterms, the worse it is for Republicans.
00:21:30.000The more people are talking about the incompetence of Democrats going into the midterms, the better it is for Republicans.
00:21:34.000And you can see this on a case-by-case basis.
00:22:39.000Vance says, listen, you're accusing me of sucking up to Trump.
00:22:41.000You sucked up to Nancy Pelosi, and she's the one in charge of the Congress right now.
00:22:45.000His entire campaign is based on sucking up to the national democratic establishment And of course they support you, Tim, because you support their policies 100%.
00:23:20.000Vance responded in pretty harsh fashion, as he should, saying, listen, you don't have to be a racist to believe that there ought to be a border.
00:23:27.000And when you call me a racist, you seem to be ignoring the fact that I have several biracial children.
00:23:42.000I'll tell you exactly what happens, Tim.
00:23:45.000What happens is that my own children, my biracial children, get attacked by scumbags online and in person because you are so desperate for political power That you'll accuse me, the father of three beautiful biracial babies, of engaging in racism?
00:24:02.000You can believe in a border without being a racist.
00:24:05.000You can believe in the country without being a racist.
00:24:09.000And this just shows how desperate this guy is for political power.
00:24:13.000I know you've been in office for 20 years, Tim, and I know it's a sweet gig, but you're so desperate not to have a real job that you'll slander me and slander my family.
00:24:39.000He's passed five pieces of legislation.
00:24:42.000Three of those pieces of legislation were in renaming post offices in the Youngstown area.
00:24:47.000Whenever I'm up here in the Mahoning Valley, I'm constantly approached by people who tell me that Tim Ryan has failed them and Tim Ryan has failed to do his job.
00:25:41.000said that that was a gimmick, but it's actually an opportunity for us to put more money in people's pockets.
00:25:47.000The Inflation Reduction Act also drives down our deficit by $300 billion, which will help pull some money out of the economy.
00:25:56.000Meanwhile, speaking of candidates who are doing well, over in Georgia, Brian Kemp is just shellacking Stacey Abrams.
00:26:02.000I mean, these numbers are brutal for Stacey Abrams right now.
00:26:07.000I'm looking at the latest Georgia gubernatorial polls, and what they show is that Brian Kemp is up on average about five and a half points.
00:26:33.000You don't worry about what Twitter has to say.
00:26:35.000You're not mainly concerned with the blue checks on Twitter and what they're saying on either side.
00:26:39.000When you do that, you tend to run successful races.
00:26:42.000If you can somehow hit the sweet spot where you're getting both, like Ron DeSantis in Florida, you become a national figure.
00:26:47.000But if you're just looking to win your gubernatorial seat, in Georgia, Brian Kemp was able to withstand pressure from Donald Trump, and the hatred of Donald Trump, and he was able to defeat Stacey Abrams, the beloved of the left.
00:26:58.000I mean, that is a very durable candidacy.
00:27:00.000And that is because when you watch Brian Kemp, basically he just says common sense things in a common sense way.
00:27:04.000So for example, he was talking about the electoral strategies in Georgia and how the voting laws in Georgia are not disenfranchising.
00:27:11.000People says, listen, it's easy to vote here and it's hard to cheat.
00:27:15.000The Miss Abrams is going to do a lot of attacking of my record tonight because she doesn't want to talk about her own record.
00:27:22.000In 2018, in the Governor's race, we had the largest African American turnout in the country.
00:27:27.000She said that Senate Bill 202, our recent Elections Integrity Act that we passed two years ago, would be suppressive in Jim Crow 2.0.
00:27:36.000Just this past May in our primaries, we again had record turnout in the Republican primary and the Democratic primary.
00:27:43.000In Georgia, it's easy to vote and hard to cheat.
00:27:47.000By the way, Gabriel Sterling, who has come under serious fire because he is the Secretary of State in Georgia.
00:27:54.000He pointed out that as of yesterday, they'd seen over 100,000 Georgians cast their votes early, which blew away the previous midterm first day record of approximately 72,000.
00:28:04.000So much for the idea of massive voter suppression.
00:28:06.000Meanwhile, Brian Kemp points out to Stacey Abrams, you got no sheriffs endorsing you.
00:28:11.000I'm the guy that the police actually care about.
00:28:12.000So if you care about crime, you ought to vote for me.
00:28:15.000Well, I would just tell people that, look, I support safety and justice.
00:28:19.000Abrams refused to answer the question, so I'll let you know that the answer is zero.
00:28:24.000No sheriffs are endorsing her statewide because of her stances on wanting to defund the police, eliminate cash bail, and serving on the boards of organizations like the Margaret Casey Foundation that supports and gives grants to organizations that are promoting the defund the police movement.
00:28:42.000Brian Kemp also pointed out that he kept the state open for business.
00:28:45.000Again, this is why Brian Kemp is going to destroy Stacey Abrams, the beloved of the media.
00:28:49.000I mean, to the point where they made her the president of the universe in Star Trek.
00:28:54.000Well, I would remind Georgians that the first part of my plan was keeping our state open for business and allowing all business people and working Georgians to work, when Stacey Abrams was criticizing me for doing that.
00:29:06.000Also pushing to get our kids back in the classroom, when again, Stacey Abrams was criticizing me for doing that.
00:29:13.000A lot of Georgians, including African Americans and other minorities, cannot go to work if their kids are not in the classroom.
00:29:20.000I mean, this is all good stuff here from Brian Kemp, obviously.
00:29:22.000Meanwhile, there's another race going on in Georgia, and that is the race between Walker and Warnock for Raphael Warnock's Senate seat, which he never would have won if Donald Trump hadn't intervened in the Georgia Senate race in January of 2021.
00:29:33.000So Raphael Warnock right now, in the RealClearPolitics polling average, is up about three percentage points, but the last two polls have this thing well within margin of error.
00:29:42.000They had a debate the other night, did Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker.
00:29:47.000Herschel Walker, I thought, did a fairly decent job.
00:29:51.000I thought that he really attempted to refocus the debate on Warnock.
00:29:54.000The big problem with Herschel Walker is because of all his baggage, a lot of the focus has been on Herschel Walker.
00:29:58.000It's possible that if he refocuses the last couple of weeks and he just keeps saying the same lines over and over, that he can sort of drag himself to victory based on the fact that Brian Kemp also will provide a tailwind for him.
00:30:08.000There'll be less ballot splitting, perhaps, than there otherwise would be.
00:30:11.000In this debate, for example, Herschel Walker kept claiming repeatedly that he's running because Raphael Warnock and Joe Biden are the same.
00:30:18.000It is very clear that my opponent would rather be running against anybody except me.
00:30:47.000and Herschel Walker sort of interjected, yeah, no, you laid down for Joe Biden.
00:30:51.000Well, first of all, I'm glad that we are standing up to Putin's aggression.
00:30:57.000And we have to continue to stand up, which is why I stood up to the Biden administration when it suggested that we should close the Savannah Combat Readiness Training Center.
00:31:10.000I told the President that was the exact wrong thing to do at the exact wrong time.
00:31:14.000Well, Senator, why not say he stood up?
00:31:18.000If he was standing up, he wouldn't have voted with him 96% of the time, which gave us an open border, which gave us high inflation, which gave us crime in the streets.
00:32:22.000And I tell people this, Georgia is a state that respects life, and I'll be a Senator that protects life.
00:32:29.000And then of course, there was the moment in which Herschel Walker, attempting to rip on Raphael Warnock's relationship with the police, pulled his police badge.
00:34:03.000You shouldn't have to run, hey, remember me ads at the late stage of the campaign, but that's exactly what she has to do because Laxalt has done a good job sort of pinning her down.
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00:37:54.000Again, this was a race that Democrats thought that they had locked up just a few months ago, when Barnes was up 5 to 7 points in this particular race.
00:38:02.000As the election has gotten closer, people have begun to refocus their minds a little bit on what actually matters to them.
00:38:07.000And you can see the difference between Mandela Barnes and Ron Johnson, what their focus is, in the way that they went after each other in their latest Senate debate.
00:38:17.000So here's Mandela Barnes, here's his closing statement at the debate.
00:38:21.000I really appreciate this opportunity, and while the Senator wants to lie and distract and hide from his own record, and while he subscribes to the politics of division, what he doesn't realize is that each and every one of us in all 72 counties in this state has so much more in common with each other than we'll ever have with self-serving, out-of-touch politicians.
00:38:38.000Now, unfortunately, for the last 12 years, we've experienced the failures of his leadership and his representation.
00:38:46.000Women's lives and women's health are on the line.
00:38:49.000For our veterans who may have been victims of burn pits, you don't want a senator who's going to play politics with your life.
00:38:54.000For our retirees, we don't want a person who's going to take your retirement away from you, what you've worked hard for your entire life.
00:39:01.000Working people live with the constant threat of their jobs being shipped out of state or overseas.
00:39:09.000What you heard there from Mandela Barnes is joy-read scaremongering, right?
00:39:11.000You got the abortion, you got he's going to take your Medicare away, he's going to take your Medicaid away, all the rest of this kind of stuff.
00:39:16.000Meanwhile, Ron Johnson is slamming Joe Biden on spending, which again is an idea that I think is going to go over a lot better with the voters of Wisconsin than Mandela Barnes talking about, for example, abortion or January 6th.
00:39:27.000To understand what caused these 40-year high inflation rates.
00:39:36.000But, unfortunately, President Biden, when he came into office, put forward another $1.9 trillion COVID relief package when we had a trillion and a quarter left unspent from the previous COVID relief packages.
00:39:49.000You can hear the real contrast between Johnson and Barnes when it comes to policing.
00:39:52.000So the solution is stop the deficit spending, stop growing our debt. But understand that every dollar you held at the start of the Biden administration is now worth only 88.3 cents.
00:40:03.000It's crushing everyone, but it's particularly crushing seniors on a fixed income.
00:40:07.000You can hear the real contrast between Johnson and Barnes when it comes to policing. So Johnson's main focus is Mandela, you helped incite riots in Kenosha.
00:40:15.000And Mandela Barnes's response is, Well, January 6th ain't gonna cut as much ice as, you know, they burned down an entire city in Wisconsin while Lieutenant Governor and Governor did very little about it.
00:40:40.000Just days after this horrific crime, Mandela Barnes appeared on Vladimir Putin's propaganda news outlet and rationalized violence against American police officers.
00:40:49.000Police officers are overexercising their badness.
00:40:52.000This probably was a retaliatory attack.
00:40:54.000Do you want Mandela Barnes representing you in the Senate?
00:40:58.000I'm Ron Johnson and I approve this message.
00:41:01.000That policing ad is going to be effective.
00:41:02.000That is why Ron Johnson is starting to pull away in that race.
00:41:05.000Meanwhile, in Arizona, you're starting to see the same sort of effect that you're seeing in Georgia.
00:41:09.000In the governor's race, a candidate is doing better.
00:41:11.000And in the senatorial race, a candidate is doing worse.
00:41:15.000One, Kerry Lake in Arizona is doing better because it turns out that she's actually very talented on the campaign trail in a way that Blake Masters may not be.
00:41:23.000In that polling right now, Kerry Lake is up just slightly in this race.
00:41:27.000And she's tied in the CBS YouGov poll with Katie Hobbs, she's up three points in the Ohio Predictive Insights poll, and in the Fox 10 Insider Advantage poll, she's up three points as well.
00:41:38.000That is because, again, Carrie Lake, even her opponents will acknowledge that she's excellent on TV, that she knows how to work a room, she knows how to work a camera.
00:41:46.000There's a very bizarre article from The Atlantic trying to rip into Carrie Lake, but even the author of the article, Elaine Godfrey, who seems to need to smoke a cigarette after writing this thing, here's how she describes following around Lake's campaign.
00:41:59.000She says, quote, the way Lake has imitated Trump's rhetoric is obvious, but as I've followed her in the months since, something else has become clear. She's much better at this than Trump's other emulators. That makes sense, given her first career in front of the camera, cultivating trust among thousands of Maricopa County viewers. But this is more than an imitation. Lake has made MAGA her own. She's agile as a politician in a way that other high-profile Trump-endorsed candidates are not. She's more likable than Senate hopefuls like Blake Masters or J.D. Vance.
00:42:23.000Lake is neck and neck in her race in Arizona.
00:42:25.000She arguably has a better chance than any other famous Trump endorsee this cycle.
00:42:28.000She really is the candidate that Trump picked who is doing the best, and most clearly doing the best.
00:43:13.000But again, either Carrie Lake is an excellent candidate or this lady's got a screw loose.
00:43:17.000But bottom line here is that Katie Hobbs, who's running against Carrie Lake, she also made a huge boo-boo here because she actually ducked a debate and then got fact-checked on it.
00:43:28.000And she said that Lake had ducked an interview and she got fact-checked on it by Dana Bash of CNN.
00:43:34.000Look, Carrie Lake has made it clear time and time again that she's not interested in having substantive, in-depth conversations about the issues that matter to Arizonans.
00:43:44.000She only wants a scenario where she can control the dialogue, and she's refused to sit down in a one-on-one lengthy conversation to really clarify with Arizonans where she is on the issues.
00:43:55.000She's the one who's afraid of talking to voters where she's at, and we are doing everything we can to take To make our case directly to the voters of Arizona.
00:44:06.000She just came and sat down with me and answered my questions for a lot of minutes.
00:44:12.000A lot of Democrats are questioning your decision and they're saying, you know, it's the wrong decision.
00:44:17.000President Biden's former 2020 co-chair said, I would debate and I would want the people of Arizona to know what my platform is.
00:44:26.000If you think she's as dangerous as you're saying to democracy, is it your responsibility as a candidate who wants to run Arizona to show and explain who their alternative is?
00:44:36.000Yeah, I mean, that's Dana Bash basically fact checking Katie Hobbs.
00:44:39.000So Carrie Lake is benefiting from the fact that she's very good on TV.
00:44:42.000She's also benefiting from the fact that obviously her opponent is very terrible on TV.
00:44:44.000We haven't barely talked about the Democrats in these races, but Katie Hobbs is a particularly awful candidate.
00:44:49.000Meanwhile, in the Arizona Senate race, Mark Kelly is up on Blake Masters.
00:44:55.000That lead has been fairly consistent over time.
00:44:58.000It was a lot bigger, I would say, mid-September.
00:45:00.000Mid-September, Kelly was up about six points on Blake Masters today.
00:45:04.000He's up about four and a half points on Blake Masters.
00:45:07.000Masters seems to be closing the gap a little bit.
00:45:27.000Mark Kelly, a year ago, could have dug his heels in and said, Mr. President, I'm not supporting a single thing, not a single spending bill, not a single piece of your agenda, unless and until we get border security.
00:45:37.000Biden would have had to secure the border.
00:45:39.000Mark Kelly, if this is the result of Senator Kelly being focused on the border, my gosh, he's the most ineffective and worst senator of all time.
00:45:47.000Now again, this is the right message for Blake Masters to be promoting.
00:45:50.000The problem is that the ads that he has been promoting up till now have been issue ads that actually don't cut in his favor.
00:45:54.000So for example, I'm not sure why he thought that this was, for example, a very good ad.
00:46:01.000250,000 illegals cross this border every month.
00:46:11.000We need five times more border patrol.
00:46:13.000And we need technology to lock this border down.
00:46:16.000If we don't do these things right now, we're not going to have a country.
00:46:20.000I'm Blake Masters, and I approve this message.
00:46:22.000President Trump endorsed me because he knows that I'm going to secure this border.
00:46:29.000Now again, Donald Trump did not win Arizona.
00:46:32.000I mean, it is worth noting here that in the last election, Donald Trump did not win Arizona and his approval ratings in Arizona are not ridiculously high.
00:46:37.000So Blake Masters citing Donald Trump twice in an ad about immigration and then adding sort of the hero music.
00:46:42.000I like, I understand it's cool looking and it looks like the trailer for a film, but it really is not an ad that is going to get those suburban housewives to vote for Blake Masters.
00:46:51.000Meanwhile, Mark Kelly's ads are aimed directly at those people, right?
00:46:53.000Mark Kelly's ads are all soft and And twinkly.
00:46:56.000Like, if you're gonna cut an ad about yourself, the general rule, if you are in a purple state, is you cut soft ads about yourself and really hardcore ads about your opponent.
00:47:03.000You don't cut hardcore ads about yourself and then not much about your opponent.
00:47:07.000Most of your ads actually shouldn't feature you, they should feature your opponent.
00:47:10.000But here's an ad, like, look, this is a good ad by Mark Kelly, because, again, it completely obscures who he is, the guy who votes with Joe Biden 96% of the time.
00:47:18.000I'm the mayor of Mesa and a Republican.
00:47:21.000The last few years have been tough on our local businesses and our community needed help.
00:47:44.000I'm Mark Kelly and I approve this message.
00:47:47.000Okay, again, that ad obscures who Mark Kelly is, but it basically makes me sound like a Republican, right? All these Republicans were endorsing him, he's bipartisan and all the rest. And then in the debate, this was Mark Kelly's angle on Masters, right? His angle on Masters is that Masters is kind of an extremist upstart. That's got to be the pitch.
00:48:03.000And Mark Kelly is running a better campaign than he's being given credit for in Arizona, where really he should be on the losing end. Here's Kelly. I think we all know guys like this. You know, guys that think they know better than everyone about everything.
00:48:18.000You know, you think you know better than women and doctors about abortion.
00:48:23.000You even think you know better than seniors about Social Security, and you think you know better than veterans about how to win a war.
00:48:30.000Folks, we all know guys like this, and we can't be letting them make decisions about us because it's just dangerous.
00:48:39.000Okay, so if you're gonna ballpark this race, even though, listen, I like Blake Masters personally, I like a lot of his ideas.
00:48:44.000With that said, I think Blake Masters is one of the weaker candidates on the Republican side of the aisle this time.
00:48:49.000So when you look at that math again, Republicans have essentially 47 Senate seats that are very likely to be winners, including J.D.
00:49:00.000Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
00:49:03.000I believe they will take North Carolina, that's one.
00:49:05.000I believe that they're going to take Wisconsin, that's two.
00:49:07.000I believe they're going to take Nevada, that's three. Okay, so that leaves, they need to win one of the following three, Georgia, Arizona, or Pennsylvania. Georgia, Arizona, or Pennsylvania. If they are capable of taking Georgia, then all the rest of this becomes a wash, but that one is dicey.
00:49:27.000It looks like Mark Kelly is in better position with Nancy, which brings us to Pennsylvania.
00:49:31.000And this, of course, is highly watched mainly because here we have a very high profile Republican Senate candidate in Dr. Oz running against a guy who had a full-on stroke in the middle of this campaign and cannot speak clearly on the campaign trail.
00:49:44.000He also happens to be an extraordinary radical.
00:49:46.000Now, all the focus at the beginning of this campaign was on Dr. Oz.
00:49:49.000It seems as though the worm has turned and all the focus is now on John Fetterman, which is why I believe that Dr. Oz is going to win this seat.
00:49:55.000I think that in the end, the people of Pennsylvania are going to move away from Fetterman simply because Fetterman does not seem like he can hold it together.
00:50:02.000Plus, he actually happens to be pretty radical.
00:50:05.000Right now, the latest polls, including one from Daily Wire, my site, Trafalgar, show Federman is up just two, and the margin of error is 2.9.
00:50:14.000There's a poll from the Hill Emerson, Fetterman up two, Margin Vera three.
00:50:18.000So this thing is basically a dead heat at this point.
00:50:22.000Again, Fetterman happens to be a radical candidate, but most of the criticism of Fetterman has been of the fact that he may not be mentally able at this point.
00:50:30.000Again, John Fetterman, he refuses to put out any of his doctor's notes on his current status.
00:50:36.000Now, if those notes were good, you think he'd be waiting for more than five seconds to put those out?
00:51:16.000to send, so I can work with Senator Casey and I can champion the union way of life in Jersey, excuse me, in D.C.
00:51:28.000Who would have ever thought that, who would ever think that I would be The normal one in the race area.
00:51:37.000I gave away the lieutenant governor-governor in Pennsylvania, the only lieutenant governor in the history to do that.
00:51:43.000And you can count on us to eliminate the filibuster and let's get some stuff done for America.
00:51:55.000If you come out and step with us, We will be able to stand with you in D.C.
00:52:06.000In fact, it's so bad that John Fetterman's wife actually came out over the last couple of days and called for NBC to apologize to John Fetterman.
00:52:13.000Because NBC News' Dasha Burns conducted an interview with Fetterman and said, well, during some of those conversations before the closed captioning was rolling, it wasn't clear he could understand what we were saying.
00:52:23.000So Fetterman's wife came out and said, I'd love to see an apology toward the disabled community from her and from her network for the damage they've caused.
00:52:29.000So wait, is John Fetterman a part of the disabled community?
00:52:32.000I was told that he's totally fine and that everything is totally hunky-dory at this point.
00:52:39.000And by the way, how bad is Fetterman's medical condition as an issue?
00:52:43.000It's so bad that one of his new ads, he basically leaves off the ad by saying that he has a stroke and that's why he knows that people need more time at home.
00:54:20.000Right now, the polling in New Hampshire is not remarkably close.
00:54:25.000I thought this race was going to be closer than it is going to be right now by the polling and that is probably because of the nomination of Don Balduck who is a veteran but has a checkered past in terms of saying rather wild things about Donald Trump in election 2020.
00:54:38.000Maggie Hassan right now who is very vulnerable and definitely could have lost that race.
00:54:41.000She's running well above 50 percent in the latest poll from Fabrizio Anzalone.
00:54:46.000By averages, she's up by about 6 points.
00:54:48.000Those are not great numbers if you're going into the election, which we are.
00:54:51.000Meanwhile, in Colorado, the Republicans were putting a lot of faith in the idea that Joe O'Day was going to somehow be able to take on Michael Bennett.
00:54:56.000And for a brief moment in time, it appeared that there was a narrowing in this particular race, but that moment in time seems to have passed.
00:55:02.000Bennett right now is up in the latest polling data, 6, 9, and 6.
00:55:08.000Now it does not help at all that Donald Trump decided to intervene in that race.
00:55:12.000He's mad because Joe O'Day is saying that he is not a Trumpy guy.
00:55:15.000And so Trump put out a full statement about how Joe O'Day is a terrible person and he hopes he loses, which of course is wildly helpful.
00:55:22.000And we've already seen at least two Georgia Senate seats go down to flaming defeat because of a Donald Trump in 2020.
00:55:28.000So, intervening in the Colorado race, he's not going to be the reason that Joe O'Day loses if Joe O'Day loses, but he's certainly not helping.
00:55:35.000You don't want the former president of the United States so concerned with what a random Senate candidate in Colorado is saying about him that he is now handing the seat back to Michael Bennett.
00:55:43.000By the way, I'm not sure that Michael Bennett likes Donald Trump more than Joe O'Day does, although he's probably going to owe more to Donald Trump than Joe O'Day does.
00:55:49.000Okay, meanwhile, there's one other seat That is now in apparently hot water, possibly for Republicans.
00:56:50.000Nobody really understands why exactly Mitt Romney would want Evan McMuffin to be in that seat, caucusing with the Democrats, possibly handing control of the Senate over to the Democrats.
00:56:59.000There was a Deseret News-Hinckley Institute of Politics poll released last week that found that 41% of registered voters said they would cast a ballot for Lee.
00:57:06.00037% said they would vote for Evan McMullin.
00:57:09.000McMullen tries to suggest, of course, that Lee was sort of in league with Donald Trump to overthrow the election result.
00:57:17.000Utah's Democrats have now voted to back McMullen over one of their own during the primaries to increase their chances of defeating Mike Lee.
00:57:24.000That's because Utah's utens will not elect Democrats to the United States Senate.
00:57:30.000The Senate race comes six years after McMullin tried to run for president in 2016.
00:57:33.000He did get 21.5% of votes in Utah, which is the highest support for an independent presidential candidate since 1992 when Ross Perot was running.
00:57:42.000Lee is still in the driver's seat, pretty obviously.
00:57:45.000But the simple fact that Mitt Romney refuses once again to endorse Lee is really extraordinary.
00:57:52.000Again, I've defended Romney from time to time when I think that he's doing stuff based on principle.
00:57:56.000I don't understand the principle of you support the guy who's going to support the Democrats.
00:58:02.000Romney apparently had made it clear for months that he would stay neutral in Lee's run for a third term against McMullin.
00:58:07.000It was not swayed, according to the Washington Post, by state GOP chairman Carson Jorgensen, who said he pressed Lee's case with Romney earlier this year and again last week with Romney's staff.
00:58:15.000A Republican candidate should be supporting their Republican colleagues.
00:58:17.000That's all there is to it, Jorgensen said in an interview.
00:58:20.000Now, Lee on national television has urged Romney to reconsider in the final weeks.
00:58:25.000All 48 of my other Republican colleagues are on board with me.
00:59:18.000But for you to talk about the importance of the Electoral College, I think, is rich.
00:59:22.000I think you know exactly how important it is, and I think you knew how important it was when you sought to urge the White House that had lost an election to find fake electors to overturn the will of the people.
00:59:34.000Senator Lee, that was the most egregious betrayal of our nation's Constitution in its history by a U.S.
00:59:42.000Senator, I believe, and it will be your legacy.
00:59:45.000Okay, so he did vote, but again, McMullen apparently is attempting to push this position anyway.
00:59:56.000Lee then responded by saying, basically, you vote for McMullen, you're voting for the Democrats, which of course is true.
01:00:01.000You have sought for, actively courted, and obtained the endorsement of the Democratic Party.
01:00:06.000You've raised millions of dollars from ActBlue, the database on which far-left, progressive, socialist, Democratic donors can be found.
01:00:17.000And then you have, in the last quarter alone, spent $1.6 million feeding the Democratic industrial complex.
01:00:24.000So it's not surprising to me that you would come here today and spout not only lies, but lies that are specific to the leftist cause, lies that are specific to the Democratic Party, and lies that certainly are not applicable to me.
01:00:38.000So bottom line is, so I think that Mike Lee's gonna lose that seat.
01:00:40.000I would be very doubtful that Mike Lee loses that seat.
01:00:42.000The fact that it has come down to this at all is kind of a ridiculous situation, given how red Utah is, and given the fact that Mitt Romney could solve all of this simply by moving along here.
01:00:55.000Once again, the sort of holier-than-thou here is rather astonishing, because Mike Lee did vote in favor of the certification of the election.
01:01:02.000All right, we've reached the end of today's show.
01:01:04.000We'll be back here with much, much more tomorrow.