The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all hit new all-time low levels yesterday, and the markets have been choppy ever since. What exactly is going on? Is all the panic overrated? Is it all over? Are we now on an even keel?
00:01:11.000There were points in which the market was down over 1,000 points.
00:01:14.000There were points in which the market was up over 500 points.
00:01:17.000And nobody really seemed to be able to get their hands around what exactly was happening.
00:01:22.000According to the Wall Street Journal, stock futures rose in after hours trading Monday following a day of market whiplash that ultimately left major indices largely unchanged.
00:01:30.000Contracts tied to the Dow Industrials, the S&P 500, the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 all ended up gaining more than 1%.
00:01:36.000A false dawn on the tariff front fueled a brief rally Monday morning with the S&P 500 surging some 7% from its low on the day before the administration clarified there would be no delay in implementing new levies.
00:01:47.000And this is the key to understanding what's going on.
00:01:49.000So yesterday there was a $2 trillion swing.
00:01:54.000And part of that came in the middle of the day when there was a false report that Kevin Hassett, the head of the National Council of Economic Advisors, had said that there would in fact be a 90-day delay put on the tariffs.
00:02:07.000And it turned out he didn't say anything like that.
00:02:08.000It was a false report from a blue check on Twitter.
00:02:11.000And again, blue checks on Twitter don't mean what they used to mean.
00:02:14.000If you were a blue check during the old Twitter days, that meant that you were somebody who was usually at a Again, So some bizarre account put out a statement that the United States was going to essentially postpone the implementation of Trump's tariffs for 90 days.
00:02:36.000And the market spiked immediately, went up hundreds and hundreds of points within minutes.
00:03:09.000You can see it not just at home, but you can see it abroad.
00:03:12.000So, for example, the Japanese Nikkei, it dumped tremendously.
00:03:18.000In the early morning yesterday, and then in the aftermarket last night, the Nikkei ended up rising 7%.
00:03:24.000Why? What happened between Sunday night and Monday night?
00:03:27.000And the answer is that Treasury Secretary Scott Besant put out a tweet thread in which he said that Japan was in the middle of negotiations with the United States.
00:03:36.000Quote, following a very constructive phone discussion with the government of Japan, the President has tasked me and the U.S. Trade Representative to open negotiations to implement the President's vision for a new golden age of global trade with Shigeru Ishiba.
00:03:47.000Who is the Prime Minister of Japan and his cabinet.
00:03:50.000Japan remains among America's closest allies.
00:03:52.000I look forward to our upcoming productive engagement regarding tariffs, non-tariff trade barriers, currency issues, and government subsidies.
00:03:57.000I appreciate the Japanese government's outreach and measured approach to this process.
00:04:01.000China has chosen to isolate itself by retaliating and doubling down on previous negative behavior.
00:04:05.000Over 50 countries have responded both openly and positively.
00:04:09.000...to the President's historic action to create a fairer, more prosperous system of global trade.
00:04:12.000We look forward to meaningful negotiations with them over the coming weeks.
00:04:16.000So it sounds to Japan as though the Trump administration is looking for an off-ramp, like they are looking to get off this train.
00:04:22.000And indeed, the best-case scenario for the tariffs, I've said this since literally the first day, the first day, is that what Trump was looking for was a zero-tariff regime with various countries around the world.
00:04:33.000That basically, he declared war on pretty much everybody in order to get everybody to the table, and then he could get them all to lower their tariff barriers and non-tariff trade barriers.
00:04:41.000Victor Davis Hanson, the historian we've had as a guest on the program, tremendous historian, has a piece of the free press trying to make the strongest possible case for Trump's tariff regime, and what he comes up with is reciprocity.
00:04:53.000Here's what he writes in the free press.
00:04:54.000The fall of the Soviet Union and the ensuing globalization should have shocked Washington policymakers out of their static half-century trade orthodoxy and into readjusting American trade policy to ensure parity and reciprocity, especially as Chinese imports, coupled with U.S.
00:05:06.000outsourcing and offshoring, began to result in a rust belt with an array of accompanying social and cultural pathologies.
00:05:11.000But the 1990s exuberance of an unrivaled hyper-power America, now victorious, not just in World War II, but over the Soviet Union as well, created a sense of unreality in Washington.
00:05:21.000In reductionist terms, those tasked with directing U.S.
00:05:23.000trade policy rarely cared to calibrate the real social, cultural, and moral costs of millions, losing high-paying jobs, of small communities offshore and outsourced into oblivion, of soaring opioid use, suicides, fragmented multigenerational families, and a nation increasingly dependent upon strategic materials.
00:05:36.000And so, he concludes, quote, The ideas of equity and symmetry are critical to Trump.
00:05:48.000not just financially but also psychologically in trump's world those nations that consistently rip off the united states do so because they do not respect or fear the united states without such deference trump argues america insidiously also loses its influence and deterrence abroad in a larger trumpian sense a nation that will not secure its border insist on fair trade or address a one trillion dollar annual trade deficit will be considered weak abroad and ripe for exploitation in terms of national security America now relies on other nations for key parts of our munitions.
00:06:15.000For life-saving drugs and medicines, for strategic materials and ores, etc., etc.
00:06:18.000The emphasis on reciprocity is the key to winning support for Trump's tariffs.
00:06:22.000And then Victor Davis Hanson put out a tweet that essentially said the same thing.
00:06:28.000A key to reducing the nearly $1 trillion trade imbalance and encouraging foreign investment is the idea that trade reciprocity and parity, roughly zero tariffs or identical reciprocal tariffs between the United States and trading partners, are our primary goals.
00:06:40.000This is a concept the American people support wholeheartedly and even an extremist will continue to do so.
00:06:47.000I've been calling from day one for the Trump administration to take the off ramp of zero tariff policy.
00:06:52.000I've said from the beginning, before the beginning, that if what President Trump is attempting to do is get, for example, some sort of win off of Mexico or Canada before even this current tariff regime, if the goal was to get Canada to go to zero or Mexico to go to zero or shore up the border or whatever else it was.
00:07:09.000but a chaotic rollout of global tariffs without any sort of clarity as to what we are attempting to achieve, that is gonna be a different thing.
00:07:18.000Davis Hanson, who again is an ally of the president and is talking up the tariff, says this, quote, talk of either reparatory tariffs, additional fines on partners for their past asymmetrical tariffs, or higher tariffs on countries that either now run deficits with America or have little or no tariffs with the US will lose public support and only energize opposition to what otherwise is rational and sympathetic American position on rectifying a half century of chronic and mounting trade deficits.
00:07:47.000But those complexities, says Victor Davis Hanson, should be left for round two of negotiations, since for now the public is mostly concerned with do unto others as they would do unto you reciprocity.
00:07:56.000Getting to zero or identical tariffs with a host of current mercantile trading nations would be an astounding accomplishment and one that the public needs to digest, appreciate, and savor.
00:08:04.000Before in one fell swoop, jeopardizing such historic corrections by trying to solve the entire half-century trade quagmire all at once.
00:08:10.000A task that will lose public support if the countries are still tariffed after agreeing to zero reciprocal tariffs with the U.S. And that is the thing the market is trying to game out.
00:08:17.000Right now, the market is trying to figure out whether Donald Trump actually wants the off-ramp or whether he wants a long-standing trade barrier regime designed at reducing trade deficits rather than reducing trade barriers.
00:08:31.000That is the big question in the market.
00:08:33.000And oddly, That chaos in the markets, the sort of roiling in the markets as opposed to a total dump, might actually give President Trump the room that he needs to do more with regard to this tariff regime.
00:08:44.000If the market stays currently where it is, say, just around 40,000 or below in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, just around 5,000 in the S&P 500, if that's where the markets stay, President Trump is going to feel like he hasn't actually done anything that the markets don't like too much, and then he is going to continue to roll out Stricter and stricter tariffs.
00:09:04.000If they jump the wrong way and they sell, if you sell all your stocks and then President Trump says, hey, off-ramp, we're negotiating bilateral trade deals that lower trade barriers, you look like an idiot.
00:09:14.000If you don't jump and President Trump continues to push away allied nations who are coming to the table on bended knee, offering everything, then you look like an idiot.
00:09:28.000And the Trump administration could easily misread the markets being frozen in place as a quasi-approval for the thing that he is publicly saying he wants to do.
00:09:37.000This is why mixed messages are such a problem politically and for markets.
00:09:41.000Because what exactly is the market happy about and what exactly are they sad about?
00:09:44.000This is why I put heavy focus on the jumps that you saw yesterday in the markets.
00:09:55.000You're seeing a jump in Japan when Besson says there's an off-ramp.
00:09:58.000In other words, people want more fruit trade, not less fruit trade.
00:10:02.000And that is going to be the big burning clasper.
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00:12:19.000And we're going to raise revenue by essentially forcing countries to pay a tax when they bring their products in, which means that it gets passed along to the consumer.
00:12:29.000And for a long time in the United States, tariffs were a chief way of bringing in revenue.
00:12:43.000We're not going to be bringing in seven, eight trillion dollars in revenue, the kind of money that it would take to replace, for example, the income tax, if we were going to increase the trade barriers.
00:13:21.000The markets are not going to like a restrictionist tariff regime that is designed to quote unquote reshoring manufacturing if what that means is at the cost of the rest of the American consuming and producing public.
00:13:33.000The reality is that people have a wildly mistaken view.
00:13:38.000Here is a chart of job sectors in the United States historically.
00:13:46.000This chart shows you, over time, how jobs have shifted in the United States.
00:13:50.000So, when you take a look at 150 years of U.S. employment history, this is according to Visual Capitalist, agriculture in 1850 represented a huge percentage of American employment.
00:14:02.000Represented something like 70-80% of American employment.
00:14:04.000By the year 1900, agriculture represented about half.
00:14:32.000So, if you are doing restrictionism in order to bulk up American manufacturing, Which, by the way, will be largely done by machines, not by additional humans.
00:14:40.000If that is your goal, and it's not a national security goal, it's a goal because you think you have a peculiar view that America is going to return to the 1950s where people were working on sewing machines in factories or riveting in Ford factories.
00:14:53.000First of all, it's not the way that it's going to work because that is not how it works in industrialized countries.
00:14:57.000You have factories that are like that in China because China has 1.4 billion people and can force people in penury to work for pennies on the dollar.
00:15:04.000But here in the United States, we are going to push all of that into machinery, which is precisely why industrial production has continued to rise while employment in America has actually dropped because technology replaced the jobs.
00:15:18.000It was actually technology that replaced those jobs.
00:15:20.000Bottom line is this, if the goal of President Trump is restriction in order to bulk up the number of people employed in the manufacturing sector, for example, which sometimes President Trump retails, the markets are not going to like that.
00:15:32.000If the goal is reciprocity and we start seeing in the next few days, President Trump cut good deals, which is the thing everyone is urging him to.
00:15:42.000one, Besson's is urging it, as it turns out.
00:15:44.000that is the plan, then the markets are right not to panic.
00:15:48.000If that's not the plan, then it's a bit of a different thing.
00:15:51.000And President Trump is sending totally mixed signals right now.
00:15:53.000So we don't actually know what the story, again, none of this, by the way.
00:15:56.000Is a rip on President Trump's China policy, which I think is right.
00:15:59.000I think we should be tariffing the living hell out of China.
00:16:01.000China is a bad actor on the world stage.
00:16:03.000In fact, one of the reasons not to tariff our allies and look for zero tariff regimes with, say, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, is because you want to build a ring of fire around China.
00:16:13.000You want to build a trading ring around China that throttles China.
00:16:16.000You want all of those countries to be our allies.
00:16:18.000You want all of those countries to trade more with us than they trade with China.
00:16:56.000President Trump hit back hard against China, according to the Wall Street Journal yesterday, but left the door open to talks to lower tariffs for other countries.
00:17:03.000Again, this is why I think the markets are kind of sanguine.
00:17:07.000President Trump's comments lead countries and industries to fend for themselves ahead of his self-imposed deadline Wednesday for imposing steep duties on nations like China, Japan, and Vietnam.
00:17:15.000So today's going to be a big day, depending on whether he cuts any deals or gives indicators that the deals are going to be cut this week.
00:17:21.000Here's what President Trump yesterday asked on whether the tariffs are permanent or whether they're temporary, and his answer was, some of one, some of the other, who knows?
00:17:30.000Well, it could be, it can both be true.
00:17:34.000There can be permanent tariffs and there can also be negotiations because there are things that we need beyond tariffs.
00:17:40.000There are a lot of things like opening up countries that were totally closed.
00:17:43.000China is essentially a closed country.
00:17:49.000And what they do is they charge tariffs so that if you sell cars or if you sell anything, nobody's going to buy it because the price is out of control.
00:17:57.000But that's true with a lot of other countries also.
00:17:59.000So we're going to get fair deals and good deals with every country.
00:18:04.000And if we don't, we're going to have nothing to do with them.
00:18:06.000They're not going to be allowed to participate in the United States.
00:19:04.000Because if not, then bad things could easily happen.
00:19:08.000Now, again, this is what his team is telling him.
00:19:10.000His team is openly telling him at this point.
00:19:13.000That he needs to be taking the off-ramp.
00:19:15.000So Politico says that Scott Besant actually went down to Florida to lobby President Trump on Sunday to talk about his endgame.
00:19:22.000Quote, Treasury Secretary Scott Besant flew to Florida Sunday to encourage President Trump to focus his message on negotiating favorable trade deals or risk the stock market cratering further, according to two people familiar with the conversations, granted anonymity to share details of them.
00:19:34.000Besant landed with the president at the White House in Marine One Sunday night.
00:19:37.000told Trump markets would remain in peril unless he started putting more emphasis on talking about his endgame with tariffs, winning deals with other countries.
00:19:43.000Besson's view was, the markets will keep melting unless you shift, one of the people said.
00:19:47.000You're not going to abandon the policy, but you have to talk about negotiating and what the endgame is.
00:19:50.000A second person described the meeting as an opportunity to figure out next steps after 50 countries reached out to open discussions on the U.S.'s new tariff regime after the shock and awe of last week's Liberation Day announcement.
00:20:00.000The purpose of Trump's April 2 tariff rollout was to create maximum leverage over foreign governments, the person added, describing Besson's view.
00:20:06.000you Trump and top administration officials have spent the last several days urging Americans to brace for a long, painful, potentially permanent trade war.
00:20:13.000Besant is perhaps the most powerful voice urging Trump to telegraph to anxious Americans that there is an end in sight.
00:20:20.000Besant is the first known advisor to try to urge the president to alter his rhetoric on trade, albeit privately and gently.
00:20:25.000So he's pushing open, open talk about negotiations, talk about negotiations.
00:20:29.000And then Besant himself is doing that, as we mentioned, with regard to Japan.
00:20:34.000Here is Bessant making the case publicly that President Trump is giving himself leverage for negotiations.
00:20:40.000President Trump, as you know, is better than anyone at giving himself maximum leverage.
00:20:46.000So what he's done is we outlined the tariffs on April 2nd and then gave the countries several days to think about it.
00:20:58.000As I advised on many shows on April 2nd, I...
00:21:03.000...suggested that the foreign officials keep your cool, they do not escalate, and come to us with your offers on how you're going to drop tariffs, how you're going to drop non-tariff barriers, how you're going to stop your currency manipulation, how you're going to stop the subsidized financing, and at a point, President Trump will be ready to negotiate.
00:21:30.000And that was reiterated by Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council.
00:21:33.000He says, there are going to be great deals on the table.
00:21:35.000We're going to be looking for great deals.
00:21:38.000And so he's doubling down on something that he knows works, and he's going to continue to do that, but he is also going to listen to our trading partners.
00:21:45.000And if they come to us with really great deals that advantage American manufacturing and American farmers, I'm sure he'll listen.
00:21:51.000I've seen some deals that are great, and President Trump is going to decide if they're great enough.
00:21:55.000But again, after decades and decades of mistreating American workers, it's going to be tough to get them to decide to really come to the table and sign on the dotted line.
00:22:05.000But when he does, he's going to sign with that big, long, beautiful signature, and he'll have made a great deal for America.
00:22:10.000Kevin Hassett is saying deals are coming to the table.
00:22:13.000Well, we certainly hope that that is the case.
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00:24:41.000Long-time allies of the president, like, for example, Senator Mike Lee of Utah, who is more on the libertarian end of the spectrum.
00:24:46.000He said Trump could go down as the most pro-trade, pro-growth president in modern US history if he uses this moment as an opportunity to reduce trade barriers.
00:24:53.000Senator Ron Johnson, another MAGA ally, he said at some point you have to take yes for an answer.
00:24:57.000And this comes after Vietnam, Taiwan, the EU.
00:25:01.000People are coming to the table and they're saying, let's go zero for zero.
00:25:13.000According to the New York Times, on Monday, European officials offered to drop tariffs to zero on cars and industrial goods imported from the United States in return for the same treatment.
00:25:21.000Israel's prime minister stopped by to personally petition Trump on Monday in meetings at the White House.
00:25:25.000Vietnam's top leader, in a phone call last week, offered to get rid of tariffs on American goods entirely.
00:25:29.000Indonesia prepared to send a high-level delegation to Washington, D.C. So, is Trump willing to negotiate?
00:25:55.000Everything goes back to status quo ante and even better because it's basically the same thing that he did with regard to NAFTA and the USMCA.
00:26:00.000He negotiated a slightly better version of NAFTA that turned out to be the USMCA and it was good for the American economy.
00:26:05.000He could certainly do the same thing and get bigger wins from other countries.
00:26:08.000Not as big as the wins that I think that would be touted given the fact that we don't actually have a 90% tariff regime from the Vietnamese toward America.
00:26:15.000Those statistics on that chart were not true.
00:26:22.000He could claim those wins and the economy would start to go up again.
00:26:25.000And the good news is that because of all of this, he now owns the economy.
00:26:28.000So if the economy goes up, then he gets all the credit.
00:26:30.000The converse, of course, is if the economy goes down, he is going to get all the blame, which of course is a point that is being made by people both left and right.
00:26:38.000Here is Senator John Kennedy from Louisiana making that point.
00:26:42.000Is President Trump's economy for better or worse now?
00:26:45.000Do you think it's Donald Trump's economy now?
00:26:51.000I think once he decided to To add the tariffs, clearly, I mean, he will be held responsible, as he should, whether it turns out good or it turns out badly.
00:27:23.000Donald Trump is teeing up a nationwide recession.
00:27:28.000Less than a week after Donald Trump started the largest, dumbest trade war in American history, all the signs say America is heading towards calamity.
00:27:38.000Okay, so again, they're rooting for all this.
00:27:43.000So the question is, does he take the off ramp?
00:30:08.000Okay, again, you can make an argument about whether the United States should be providing as much military aid to Israel as they are currently providing.
00:30:16.000I made the argument that Israel should do its best to get the hell off of American aid as soon as humanly possible.
00:30:40.000We have many, many countries that are coming to negotiate deals with us, and they're going to be fair deals, and in certain cases, they're going to be paying substantial tariffs.
00:30:52.000Okay, and then President Trump says, it might take some time, right?
00:30:55.000We might be doing this for quite a while.
00:31:53.000Will he find an off-ramp or will he stay on this tariff regime?
00:31:57.000And Trump is giving tremendously mixed signals.
00:32:00.000So, again, here he was saying yesterday it's going to take time.
00:32:02.000But remember, time is actually not a friend here.
00:32:05.000Because the longer the tariff regime is in place, the more the reality of higher prices and restricted supply lines is going to become a reality in the real world.
00:32:15.000You've said it could take two years to get American manufacturing fully up to speed in response to these tariffs.
00:34:03.000Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the EU.
00:34:04.000She says, listen, we're ready to negotiate, but it turns out that we do 83% of our trade outside the United States.
00:34:09.000So if it turns out that we can't trade with the United States, well, we'll just reorient toward China, maybe toward Russia, maybe toward places that are not friendly to the United States.
00:34:17.000We stand ready to negotiate with the United States.
00:34:21.000Indeed, we have offered zero for zero tariffs for industrial goods.
00:35:12.000Is he doing these tariffs because he wants reciprocity?
00:35:14.000He wants a fairer deal, a fairer shake, free trade?
00:35:17.000Or is he doing this because he wants restrictionism?
00:35:20.000Because he believes, as he has said many times, that tariffs make us richer.
00:35:23.000By the way, this is one of the big differences between his hero, William McKinley, the former two-term president of the United States who shot in office during his second term early on.
00:35:42.000He wanted more tariffs because he believed, actually, that we were taking in too much.
00:35:47.000In terms of revenue to the government.
00:35:49.000He wanted to lower the amount of revenue to the government, so he actually decided he was going to increase the tariffs to lower the revenue to the government.
00:35:54.000The increased tariffs actually caused him to lose his seat in Ohio.
00:35:57.000He then became governor of Ohio, and then he became president.
00:35:59.000But when he ran for his second term, he explicitly said he wanted to lower tariffs.
00:36:10.000That's the William McKinley that President Trump needs to be following here.
00:36:14.000Okay, speaking of which, there will be a fact if it goes the other way.
00:36:17.000If President Trump decides that tariffs make us rich and make us strong, then things go the other way.
00:36:21.000As the Wall Street Journal points out today, the Anderson Economic Group estimated last week auto tariffs alone could increase the cost for smaller cars like the Honda Civic and VW Jetta by $2,500 to $4,500, cost for larger vehicles that are more heavily affected by the tariffs like the Chevy Suburban, GMC Yukon, Cadillac Escalade.
00:36:38.000Remember, all American companies could rise by $10,000 to $12,000.
00:36:42.000Used car prices will also climb, according to AEG, as demand increases among consumers who don't want to pay higher prices for new cars.
00:36:49.000If tariffs cause carmakers to reduce U.S.
00:36:52.000Volkswagen said last week it would stop rail shipments to the United States from Mexico.
00:36:56.000The auto tariffs will cause Americans to pay $30 billion more for cars in the first year, while investors and employees, manufacturers, suppliers, and dealers in the automotive industry will absorb at least another $30 billion in tariff costs, according to AEG.
00:37:15.000Steel prices in the United States rose 20% in 2018 as domestic manufacturers took advantage of tariffs to raise prices.
00:37:22.000According to former Ford CEO James Hackett, the tariffs reduced Ford's profit by a billion dollars.
00:37:27.000Consumers and auto dealers ended up eating the costs.
00:37:30.000Okay, so the idea that this isn't going to apply at home, that somehow everybody is exempt?
00:38:23.000According to the Wall Street Journal, workers at Michigan's biggest auto factories are tightening their belts in case tariffs spark layoffs by causing a spike in vehicle prices and a drop in demand.
00:38:31.000One auto executive early last week darkly predicted Chernobyl if tariffs broadly hit imported parts, which they are scheduled to do next month.
00:38:38.000There are some, of course, like the United Auto Workers Union, who are happy about all of this because they believe that they are going to somehow increase their share of car employment in the United States.
00:38:49.000But of course they believe that when the auto industry in the United States was bloated during the 50s and 60s, the UAW is what caused the bloat.
00:38:56.000Meanwhile, President Trump is threatening to veto a bill that would curve his power over tariffs.
00:39:02.000So again, if the idea is that Trump isn't going to Trump will own everything that comes next, good or bad.
00:39:08.000Hopefully President Trump succeeds, as I've said before.
00:39:28.000This is a legislative power that is allocated.
00:39:57.000The one thing that the founders never predicted is that the legislative branch of the United States would basically just give up all of its power to the executive.
00:40:08.000And meanwhile, all of this assumes that Republicans actually get done what they need to get done with the one big beautiful tax bill.
00:40:17.000According to the Wall Street Journal, House Republicans' moves to advance President Trump's one big beautiful bill this week have been cast into doubt by defections from GOP lawmakers worried that spending cuts are being pushed aside in a rush to enact tax reductions.
00:40:27.000Republican leaders want to vote on a fiscal framework that would unlock a fast track to legislation carrying Trump's priorities.
00:40:33.000Both Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson are hoping to show progress on extending those expiring tax cuts to counteract the market chaos sparked in recent sessions by Trump's tariff rollout.
00:41:02.000In a post on Truth Social, President Trump directed the House to pass the Senate measure quickly, saying it will make even the subject of world trade far easier and better for the United States.
00:41:12.000Republican opponents already have more than enough declared no votes to block the House from passing a version that came out of the Senate on Saturday.
00:41:19.000They say the Senate version doesn't lock in enough spending cuts alongside tax cuts, and pushing it forward now risks unacceptably large budget deficits.
00:41:27.000So, Johnson presumably is going to push on Trump to lean on the Republicans.
00:41:31.000It's not just members of the House Freedom Caucus like Chip Roy or Andy Harris.
00:41:35.000It's also Lloyd Smucker of Pennsylvania, David Schweikert of Arizona, who's concerned about budget deficits.
00:41:41.000Now again, one of the things that I find bizarre about the sort of Republican take on budget deficits, the reason for the budget deficits is systemic in nature.
00:41:50.000You ain't going to be able to bend that cost curve just by doing some Minor cuts around the edges of various programs.
00:41:59.000The rule of politics is really, on some of these things, go big or go home.
00:42:03.000Incrementalism in these bills, sure, would be better than nothing, but I'll tell you what, I'm not sure that it would be better than nothing in this case.
00:42:10.000Seriously. Given the fact that the downside risk here is you don't pass anything, I think the bill passes, and it has to pass, because if it doesn't, the economy really does bottom out, because it means an automatic tax increase in the very near future.
00:42:24.000And meanwhile, while all this is happening, again, President Trump is chalking up wins on a number of other fronts.
00:42:29.000So yesterday, President Trump chalked up a win at the Supreme Court of the United States over the Alien Enemies Act.
00:42:36.000According to NBC News, the Supreme Court on Monday threw out a judge's decision to block the removal of men alleged to be members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua to El Salvador without any legal process under the Alien Enemies Act.
00:42:46.000That ruling, which was a 5-4 ruling, means the Trump administration can try to resume deportations under the Alien Enemies Act so long as detainees are given due process.
00:42:54.000Detainees must be given time to challenge their detentions via a habeas corpus claim and be able to challenge whether the act is being lawfully applied.
00:43:01.000So the Supreme Court is saying the Alien Enemies Act still applies.
00:43:06.000They can invoke it against gang members.
00:43:08.000According to the unsigned majority opinion, AEA detainees must receive notice after the date of this order they are subject to removal under the act.
00:43:14.000The notice must be afforded within a reasonable time and in such a manner as will allow them to seek Habeas relief in the proper venue before such removal occurs, but it lifts the order from Judge James Boasberg, who had blocked the Trump administration from deporting people under the Alien Enemies Act.
00:43:30.000Five conservative justices in the majority, Amy Coney Barrett, joined the libs.
00:43:35.000Meanwhile, Justice Sonia Sotomayor, who is the worst justice on the court, she said the government's conduct in this litigation poses an extraordinary threat to the rule of law.
00:43:42.000We as a nation and a court of law should be better than this.
00:43:45.000Oh, better than this, better than this.
00:43:48.000We're perfectly fine with Joe Biden completely ignoring the law in a wide variety of cases, including, for example, using the OSHA regime in order to cram down vaccines on 80 million Americans.
00:43:57.000But they're deeply worried if the Trump administration cites the Alien Enemies Act to give people due process and then port them off to El Salvador.
00:44:07.000He's going to get to continue the deportations.
00:44:09.000Meanwhile... So, to University of Texas at Austin and Minnesota State University, Mankato, the University of California had dozens of cases reported across its campuses.
00:44:29.000Why? Well, it turns out that immigration officers have arrested international students related to their involvement in pro-Khamas causes.
00:44:39.000The administration continues to move fast and break things with regard to deporting students who shouldn't be here in the first place.
00:44:46.000People who are basically activists in the guise of students and who are brought here for no apparent reason other than to enrich the coffers of these universities and import anti-Americanism and anti-Westernism.
00:44:57.000So, the Trump administration continues to win on that front.
00:45:01.000Meanwhile, there's a shocking report out of Doge showing the impact of Joe Biden's open border regime.
00:45:08.000According to Breitbart, Doge official Antonio Gracias says millions of migrants who are welcome to the United States under former President Biden are now on the nation's Medicaid rolls and voter rolls, with some having voted in last year's elections.
00:45:19.000This is an episode of the All In podcast in which I recently appeared.
00:45:23.000Antonio Gracias was there as well, and he laid it all out.
00:45:27.000He said that thousands of illegal immigrants were registered to vote in friendly states, and we looked even further in those friendly states and found that many of those people actually had voted.
00:45:37.000That doesn't include the 7.8 million people ICE has that have come in illegally that we know are here, and all the people who are here illegally that we don't know are here.
00:45:45.000This is what Doge exists to do, is to ferret out all of this, and that's why it's very important that Doge continue its hard work.
00:45:51.000Meanwhile, President Trump announced yesterday that the United States is in direct talks with Iran, that there are direct negotiations happening between the Iranian government and the United States government, the United States, of course, trying to get Iran to give up its nuclear regime.
00:46:55.000A nuclear Iran not only threatens Israel, it also threatens the Saudis, it threatens global oil supply, it threatens the spread of terrorism around not just the region, but around the globe.
00:47:04.000Tucker Carlson found this an appropriate time to tweet yesterday.
00:47:08.000Quote, whatever you think of tariffs, it's clear that now is the worst possible time for the United States to participate in a military strike on Iran.
00:47:18.000Nothing would be more destructive to our country.
00:47:21.000Okay, so the false binary that has always been created around the Middle East is that if you hit a target in the Middle East, full-scale war erupts and thousands and millions die.
00:47:55.000Nope! But again, these false binaries that Tucker likes to posit.
00:48:00.000Effectively act as cover for the Iranian regime, because again, if the idea is that you have to let Iran go nuclear rather than striking their nuclear facilities, thus endangering extraordinary elements of importance to the American national security apparatus, ranging again from Saudi and UAE to Israel, the Suez Canal, the Red Sea, and all the rest, the Straits of Hormuz, if that's the idea, then you may as well just surrender the Middle East to the Iranians now, which of course, I don't know what Tucker's feelings are on that.
00:48:26.000He was interviewing the Emir of Qatar.
00:48:28.000Qatar is essentially a cutout front for the Iranian regime.
00:48:32.000And he's treating them with great care, shall we say.
00:48:35.000President Trump obviously does not follow that same belief system.
00:48:38.000Neither does the rest of the administration.