The Ben Shapiro Show - April 08, 2025


REBOUND or FALSE SPRING? Has The Market Hit Bottom?


Episode Stats


Length

48 minutes

Words per minute

193.72656

Word count

9,470

Sentence count

648

Harmful content

Hate speech

12

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all hit new all-time low levels yesterday, and the markets have been choppy ever since. What exactly is going on? Is all the panic overrated? Is it all over? Are we now on an even keel?

Transcript

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00:00:00.000 Well, folks, we'll get into everything market-related.
00:00:03.000 The market remains a chaotic place.
00:00:04.000 The Dow futures were up.
00:00:06.000 The S&P 500, up this morning.
00:00:08.000 So what the hell is going on?
00:00:10.000 We'll get to that in a moment.
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00:00:37.000 Already, so the markets were in turmoil yesterday.
00:00:40.000 They finally ended down slightly, and one of the questions is what the hell is going on?
00:00:45.000 Have we already hit bottom is sort of the big question, because if we have, great.
00:00:48.000 The Dow futures, again, this morning were up over 1,000 points.
00:00:52.000 The S&P futures were up about 1,000.
00:00:55.000 The NASDAQ futures were up 2.26%.
00:00:58.000 So, is all the panic overrated?
00:01:01.000 Is it all over?
00:01:02.000 Are we basically now on even keel footing?
00:01:05.000 Now, to understand that, you sort of have to understand what happened in the market yesterday.
00:01:08.000 So, it was a wild session yesterday in the markets.
00:01:10.000 Up and down and all around.
00:01:11.000 There were points in which the market was down over 1,000 points.
00:01:14.000 There were points in which the market was up over 500 points.
00:01:17.000 And nobody really seemed to be able to get their hands around what exactly was happening.
00:01:22.000 According to the Wall Street Journal, stock futures rose in after hours trading Monday following a day of market whiplash that ultimately left major indices largely unchanged.
00:01:30.000 Contracts tied to the Dow Industrials, the S&P 500, the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 all ended up gaining more than 1%.
00:01:36.000 A false dawn on the tariff front fueled a brief rally Monday morning with the S&P 500 surging some 7% from its low on the day before the administration clarified there would be no delay in implementing new levies.
00:01:47.000 And this is the key to understanding what's going on.
00:01:49.000 So yesterday there was a $2 trillion swing.
00:01:53.000 A $2 trillion swing.
00:01:54.000 And part of that came in the middle of the day when there was a false report that Kevin Hassett, the head of the National Council of Economic Advisors, had said that there would in fact be a 90-day delay put on the tariffs.
00:02:07.000 And it turned out he didn't say anything like that.
00:02:08.000 It was a false report from a blue check on Twitter.
00:02:11.000 And again, blue checks on Twitter don't mean what they used to mean.
00:02:14.000 If you were a blue check during the old Twitter days, that meant that you were somebody who was usually at a Again, So some bizarre account put out a statement that the United States was going to essentially postpone the implementation of Trump's tariffs for 90 days.
00:02:36.000 And the market spiked immediately, went up hundreds and hundreds of points within minutes.
00:02:40.000 The White House said that's not true.
00:02:41.000 And then the market dropped again.
00:02:45.000 that was bad reporting.
00:02:46.000 CNBC ran with the reporting because they were very excited.
00:02:48.000 To be first?
00:02:49.000 And then the market's dropped again.
00:02:51.000 And right now, nobody knows what in the hell is going on.
00:02:53.000 And that is the key to understanding what's happening right now.
00:02:56.000 Because no one knows what's going on.
00:02:57.000 People are afraid that they're going to be selling into an up curve, and they're afraid they're going to be buying into a down curve.
00:03:03.000 And so pretty much the markets are just chaotically roiling at this point.
00:03:08.000 Which makes perfect sense.
00:03:09.000 You can see it not just at home, but you can see it abroad.
00:03:12.000 So, for example, the Japanese Nikkei, it dumped tremendously.
00:03:18.000 In the early morning yesterday, and then in the aftermarket last night, the Nikkei ended up rising 7%.
00:03:24.000 Why? What happened between Sunday night and Monday night?
00:03:27.000 And the answer is that Treasury Secretary Scott Besant put out a tweet thread in which he said that Japan was in the middle of negotiations with the United States.
00:03:36.000 Quote, following a very constructive phone discussion with the government of Japan, the President has tasked me and the U.S. Trade Representative to open negotiations to implement the President's vision for a new golden age of global trade with Shigeru Ishiba.
00:03:47.000 Who is the Prime Minister of Japan and his cabinet.
00:03:50.000 Japan remains among America's closest allies.
00:03:52.000 I look forward to our upcoming productive engagement regarding tariffs, non-tariff trade barriers, currency issues, and government subsidies.
00:03:57.000 I appreciate the Japanese government's outreach and measured approach to this process.
00:04:01.000 China has chosen to isolate itself by retaliating and doubling down on previous negative behavior.
00:04:05.000 Over 50 countries have responded both openly and positively.
00:04:09.000 ...to the President's historic action to create a fairer, more prosperous system of global trade.
00:04:12.000 We look forward to meaningful negotiations with them over the coming weeks.
00:04:16.000 So it sounds to Japan as though the Trump administration is looking for an off-ramp, like they are looking to get off this train.
00:04:22.000 And indeed, the best-case scenario for the tariffs, I've said this since literally the first day, the first day, is that what Trump was looking for was a zero-tariff regime with various countries around the world.
00:04:33.000 That basically, he declared war on pretty much everybody in order to get everybody to the table, and then he could get them all to lower their tariff barriers and non-tariff trade barriers.
00:04:41.000 Victor Davis Hanson, the historian we've had as a guest on the program, tremendous historian, has a piece of the free press trying to make the strongest possible case for Trump's tariff regime, and what he comes up with is reciprocity.
00:04:53.000 Here's what he writes in the free press.
00:04:54.000 The fall of the Soviet Union and the ensuing globalization should have shocked Washington policymakers out of their static half-century trade orthodoxy and into readjusting American trade policy to ensure parity and reciprocity, especially as Chinese imports, coupled with U.S.
00:05:06.000 outsourcing and offshoring, began to result in a rust belt with an array of accompanying social and cultural pathologies.
00:05:11.000 But the 1990s exuberance of an unrivaled hyper-power America, now victorious, not just in World War II, but over the Soviet Union as well, created a sense of unreality in Washington.
00:05:21.000 In reductionist terms, those tasked with directing U.S.
00:05:23.000 trade policy rarely cared to calibrate the real social, cultural, and moral costs of millions, losing high-paying jobs, of small communities offshore and outsourced into oblivion, of soaring opioid use, suicides, fragmented multigenerational families, and a nation increasingly dependent upon strategic materials.
00:05:36.000 And so, he concludes, quote, The ideas of equity and symmetry are critical to Trump.
00:05:48.000 not just financially but also psychologically in trump's world those nations that consistently rip off the united states do so because they do not respect or fear the united states without such deference trump argues america insidiously also loses its influence and deterrence abroad in a larger trumpian sense a nation that will not secure its border insist on fair trade or address a one trillion dollar annual trade deficit will be considered weak abroad and ripe for exploitation in terms of national security America now relies on other nations for key parts of our munitions.
00:06:15.000 For life-saving drugs and medicines, for strategic materials and ores, etc., etc.
00:06:18.000 The emphasis on reciprocity is the key to winning support for Trump's tariffs.
00:06:22.000 And then Victor Davis Hanson put out a tweet that essentially said the same thing.
00:06:27.000 Please, tariff symmetry, he writes.
00:06:28.000 A key to reducing the nearly $1 trillion trade imbalance and encouraging foreign investment is the idea that trade reciprocity and parity, roughly zero tariffs or identical reciprocal tariffs between the United States and trading partners, are our primary goals.
00:06:40.000 This is a concept the American people support wholeheartedly and even an extremist will continue to do so.
00:06:45.000 Totally agree with that.
00:06:46.000 That is right.
00:06:47.000 I've been calling from day one for the Trump administration to take the off ramp of zero tariff policy.
00:06:52.000 I've said from the beginning, before the beginning, that if what President Trump is attempting to do is get, for example, some sort of win off of Mexico or Canada before even this current tariff regime, if the goal was to get Canada to go to zero or Mexico to go to zero or shore up the border or whatever else it was.
00:07:06.000 was, make that clear and then do it.
00:07:09.000 but a chaotic rollout of global tariffs without any sort of clarity as to what we are attempting to achieve, that is gonna be a different thing.
00:07:18.000 Davis Hanson, who again is an ally of the president and is talking up the tariff, says this, quote, talk of either reparatory tariffs, additional fines on partners for their past asymmetrical tariffs, or higher tariffs on countries that either now run deficits with America or have little or no tariffs with the US will lose public support and only energize opposition to what otherwise is rational and sympathetic American position on rectifying a half century of chronic and mounting trade deficits.
00:07:47.000 But those complexities, says Victor Davis Hanson, should be left for round two of negotiations, since for now the public is mostly concerned with do unto others as they would do unto you reciprocity.
00:07:56.000 Getting to zero or identical tariffs with a host of current mercantile trading nations would be an astounding accomplishment and one that the public needs to digest, appreciate, and savor.
00:08:04.000 Before in one fell swoop, jeopardizing such historic corrections by trying to solve the entire half-century trade quagmire all at once.
00:08:10.000 A task that will lose public support if the countries are still tariffed after agreeing to zero reciprocal tariffs with the U.S. And that is the thing the market is trying to game out.
00:08:17.000 Right now, the market is trying to figure out whether Donald Trump actually wants the off-ramp or whether he wants a long-standing trade barrier regime designed at reducing trade deficits rather than reducing trade barriers.
00:08:31.000 That is the big question in the market.
00:08:33.000 And oddly, That chaos in the markets, the sort of roiling in the markets as opposed to a total dump, might actually give President Trump the room that he needs to do more with regard to this tariff regime.
00:08:44.000 If the market stays currently where it is, say, just around 40,000 or below in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, just around 5,000 in the S&P 500, if that's where the markets stay, President Trump is going to feel like he hasn't actually done anything that the markets don't like too much, and then he is going to continue to roll out Stricter and stricter tariffs.
00:09:03.000 It's a catch-22 for the markets.
00:09:04.000 If they jump the wrong way and they sell, if you sell all your stocks and then President Trump says, hey, off-ramp, we're negotiating bilateral trade deals that lower trade barriers, you look like an idiot.
00:09:14.000 If you don't jump and President Trump continues to push away allied nations who are coming to the table on bended knee, offering everything, then you look like an idiot.
00:09:25.000 So it's a catch-22.
00:09:26.000 Everybody is sort of frozen in place.
00:09:28.000 And the Trump administration could easily misread the markets being frozen in place as a quasi-approval for the thing that he is publicly saying he wants to do.
00:09:37.000 This is why mixed messages are such a problem politically and for markets.
00:09:41.000 Because what exactly is the market happy about and what exactly are they sad about?
00:09:44.000 This is why I put heavy focus on the jumps that you saw yesterday in the markets.
00:09:48.000 So you saw that jump when?
00:09:49.000 When there was talk that President Trump was going to postpone the trade barriers.
00:09:53.000 That's when you saw a jump.
00:09:55.000 You're seeing a jump in Japan when Besson says there's an off-ramp.
00:09:58.000 In other words, people want more fruit trade, not less fruit trade.
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00:12:14.000 There are three rationales for tariffs, traditionally speaking, called the three R's of tariffs.
00:12:18.000 One is revenue.
00:12:19.000 And we're going to raise revenue by essentially forcing countries to pay a tax when they bring their products in, which means that it gets passed along to the consumer.
00:12:29.000 And for a long time in the United States, tariffs were a chief way of bringing in revenue.
00:12:32.000 We didn't have an income tax.
00:12:34.000 The reality was that we were a largely agricultural country.
00:12:37.000 And so importing products into the United States created an enormous amount of revenue.
00:12:42.000 Those days are long past.
00:12:43.000 We're not going to be bringing in seven, eight trillion dollars in revenue, the kind of money that it would take to replace, for example, the income tax, if we were going to increase the trade barriers.
00:12:53.000 So revenue is one possibility.
00:12:54.000 You've heard that retail by President Trump.
00:12:55.000 We're going to increase our revenue.
00:12:57.000 Number two is restriction.
00:12:59.000 And the real question here is whether President Trump is doing tariffs because he likes restriction or the third R, reciprocity.
00:13:05.000 This is the biggest question in the market.
00:13:08.000 Restriction or reciprocity?
00:13:11.000 Are we restricting trade because we are seeking to protect particular sectors of American industry?
00:13:16.000 Or are we seeking reciprocity so we have more free trade?
00:13:20.000 Restriction or reciprocity?
00:13:21.000 The markets are not going to like a restrictionist tariff regime that is designed to quote unquote reshoring manufacturing if what that means is at the cost of the rest of the American consuming and producing public.
00:13:33.000 The reality is that people have a wildly mistaken view.
00:13:38.000 Here is a chart of job sectors in the United States historically.
00:13:46.000 This chart shows you, over time, how jobs have shifted in the United States.
00:13:50.000 So, when you take a look at 150 years of U.S. employment history, this is according to Visual Capitalist, agriculture in 1850 represented a huge percentage of American employment.
00:14:02.000 Represented something like 70-80% of American employment.
00:14:04.000 By the year 1900, agriculture represented about half.
00:14:07.000 of American employment.
00:14:08.000 Meanwhile, manufacturing was quickly rising.
00:14:11.000 Manufacturing hit all-time highs in the 1950s and 60s when it represented somewhere in the neighborhood of 26% of all American jobs.
00:14:18.000 Agriculture shrunk down.
00:14:20.000 Today, the reality is that about 10% of jobs in the U.S. private sector are in manufacturing.
00:14:26.000 10. And 10% are in agriculture.
00:14:30.000 80% are in services.
00:14:32.000 So, if you are doing restrictionism in order to bulk up American manufacturing, Which, by the way, will be largely done by machines, not by additional humans.
00:14:40.000 If that is your goal, and it's not a national security goal, it's a goal because you think you have a peculiar view that America is going to return to the 1950s where people were working on sewing machines in factories or riveting in Ford factories.
00:14:53.000 First of all, it's not the way that it's going to work because that is not how it works in industrialized countries.
00:14:57.000 You have factories that are like that in China because China has 1.4 billion people and can force people in penury to work for pennies on the dollar.
00:15:04.000 But here in the United States, we are going to push all of that into machinery, which is precisely why industrial production has continued to rise while employment in America has actually dropped because technology replaced the jobs.
00:15:16.000 It was mostly not outsourcing.
00:15:18.000 It was actually technology that replaced those jobs.
00:15:20.000 Bottom line is this, if the goal of President Trump is restriction in order to bulk up the number of people employed in the manufacturing sector, for example, which sometimes President Trump retails, the markets are not going to like that.
00:15:32.000 If the goal is reciprocity and we start seeing in the next few days, President Trump cut good deals, which is the thing everyone is urging him to.
00:15:38.000 I'm urging it.
00:15:39.000 Elon is urging it.
00:15:40.000 Bill Ackman is urging it.
00:15:42.000 one, Besson's is urging it, as it turns out.
00:15:44.000 that is the plan, then the markets are right not to panic.
00:15:48.000 If that's not the plan, then it's a bit of a different thing.
00:15:51.000 And President Trump is sending totally mixed signals right now.
00:15:53.000 So we don't actually know what the story, again, none of this, by the way.
00:15:56.000 Is a rip on President Trump's China policy, which I think is right. 1.00
00:15:59.000 I think we should be tariffing the living hell out of China. 0.99
00:16:01.000 China is a bad actor on the world stage. 1.00
00:16:03.000 In fact, one of the reasons not to tariff our allies and look for zero tariff regimes with, say, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, is because you want to build a ring of fire around China. 0.85
00:16:13.000 You want to build a trading ring around China that throttles China.
00:16:16.000 You want all of those countries to be our allies.
00:16:18.000 You want all of those countries to trade more with us than they trade with China.
00:16:21.000 That would be the goal.
00:16:22.000 When you force everybody out into the cold, they're going to start making common cause with each other.
00:16:25.000 That is the reality.
00:16:27.000 You're seeing it from Canada of all places.
00:16:29.000 Mark Carney up in Canada is basically saying he wants to do a trade deal with China.
00:16:33.000 And China is coming and offering all these places zero tariff regimes while President Trump is pushing out 10% tariff at a minimum.
00:16:41.000 So going after China, which is what he is doing, that's great. 1.00
00:16:43.000 It needs to be paired with being friendly with our allies.
00:16:47.000 Good foreign policy and good economics is...
00:16:49.000 Your friends are your friends and your enemies are your enemies.
00:16:52.000 Not your friends are your enemies and your enemies are your enemies.
00:16:54.000 That is a bad policy.
00:16:56.000 President Trump hit back hard against China, according to the Wall Street Journal yesterday, but left the door open to talks to lower tariffs for other countries.
00:17:03.000 Again, this is why I think the markets are kind of sanguine.
00:17:07.000 President Trump's comments lead countries and industries to fend for themselves ahead of his self-imposed deadline Wednesday for imposing steep duties on nations like China, Japan, and Vietnam.
00:17:15.000 So today's going to be a big day, depending on whether he cuts any deals or gives indicators that the deals are going to be cut this week.
00:17:21.000 Here's what President Trump yesterday asked on whether the tariffs are permanent or whether they're temporary, and his answer was, some of one, some of the other, who knows?
00:17:30.000 Well, it could be, it can both be true.
00:17:34.000 There can be permanent tariffs and there can also be negotiations because there are things that we need beyond tariffs.
00:17:40.000 There are a lot of things like opening up countries that were totally closed.
00:17:43.000 China is essentially a closed country.
00:17:46.000 In fact, It is a closed country.
00:17:49.000 And what they do is they charge tariffs so that if you sell cars or if you sell anything, nobody's going to buy it because the price is out of control.
00:17:57.000 But that's true with a lot of other countries also.
00:17:59.000 So we're going to get fair deals and good deals with every country.
00:18:04.000 And if we don't, we're going to have nothing to do with them.
00:18:06.000 They're not going to be allowed to participate in the United States.
00:18:11.000 Okay, so what does that mean?
00:18:13.000 And the answer is nobody knows what that means.
00:18:15.000 President Trump, for his part, He's telling people not to be panikins.
00:18:18.000 This is his new term that he coins.
00:18:21.000 Whatever you think of President Trump's policies, the man is deeply amusing.
00:18:25.000 So President Trump put out a tweet yesterday urging people not to be panikins.
00:18:31.000 Quote, the United States has a chance to do something that should have been done decades ago.
00:18:34.000 Don't be weak.
00:18:35.000 Don't be stupid.
00:18:36.000 Don't be a panikin. 1.00
00:18:38.000 A new party based on weak and stupid people.
00:18:40.000 Because you're panicking.
00:18:41.000 Be strong, courageous, and patient.
00:18:43.000 Greatness will be the result.
00:18:45.000 It's like if Marcus Aurelius had a bit of a drinking bout right there.
00:18:50.000 Strong, courageous, and patient.
00:18:51.000 Greatness will be the result.
00:18:52.000 Don't be a panic in.
00:18:53.000 Okay, well, listen.
00:18:54.000 Everybody is happy not to panic if President Trump takes the off-ramp and we get to better trade deals.
00:19:00.000 In fact, that'll be a win for President Trump.
00:19:01.000 He should take the win.
00:19:02.000 That's a thing that he should do.
00:19:04.000 Because if not, then bad things could easily happen.
00:19:08.000 Now, again, this is what his team is telling him.
00:19:10.000 His team is openly telling him at this point.
00:19:13.000 That he needs to be taking the off-ramp.
00:19:15.000 So Politico says that Scott Besant actually went down to Florida to lobby President Trump on Sunday to talk about his endgame.
00:19:22.000 Quote, Treasury Secretary Scott Besant flew to Florida Sunday to encourage President Trump to focus his message on negotiating favorable trade deals or risk the stock market cratering further, according to two people familiar with the conversations, granted anonymity to share details of them.
00:19:34.000 Besant landed with the president at the White House in Marine One Sunday night.
00:19:37.000 told Trump markets would remain in peril unless he started putting more emphasis on talking about his endgame with tariffs, winning deals with other countries.
00:19:43.000 Besson's view was, the markets will keep melting unless you shift, one of the people said.
00:19:47.000 You're not going to abandon the policy, but you have to talk about negotiating and what the endgame is.
00:19:50.000 A second person described the meeting as an opportunity to figure out next steps after 50 countries reached out to open discussions on the U.S.'s new tariff regime after the shock and awe of last week's Liberation Day announcement.
00:20:00.000 The purpose of Trump's April 2 tariff rollout was to create maximum leverage over foreign governments, the person added, describing Besson's view.
00:20:06.000 you Trump and top administration officials have spent the last several days urging Americans to brace for a long, painful, potentially permanent trade war.
00:20:13.000 Besant is perhaps the most powerful voice urging Trump to telegraph to anxious Americans that there is an end in sight.
00:20:20.000 Besant is the first known advisor to try to urge the president to alter his rhetoric on trade, albeit privately and gently.
00:20:25.000 So he's pushing open, open talk about negotiations, talk about negotiations.
00:20:29.000 And then Besant himself is doing that, as we mentioned, with regard to Japan.
00:20:34.000 Here is Bessant making the case publicly that President Trump is giving himself leverage for negotiations.
00:20:38.000 That's what this is all about.
00:20:40.000 President Trump, as you know, is better than anyone at giving himself maximum leverage.
00:20:46.000 So what he's done is we outlined the tariffs on April 2nd and then gave the countries several days to think about it.
00:20:58.000 As I advised on many shows on April 2nd, I...
00:21:03.000 ...suggested that the foreign officials keep your cool, they do not escalate, and come to us with your offers on how you're going to drop tariffs, how you're going to drop non-tariff barriers, how you're going to stop your currency manipulation, how you're going to stop the subsidized financing, and at a point, President Trump will be ready to negotiate.
00:21:29.000 Okay, sounds great.
00:21:30.000 And that was reiterated by Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council.
00:21:33.000 He says, there are going to be great deals on the table.
00:21:35.000 We're going to be looking for great deals.
00:21:38.000 And so he's doubling down on something that he knows works, and he's going to continue to do that, but he is also going to listen to our trading partners.
00:21:45.000 And if they come to us with really great deals that advantage American manufacturing and American farmers, I'm sure he'll listen.
00:21:51.000 I've seen some deals that are great, and President Trump is going to decide if they're great enough.
00:21:55.000 But again, after decades and decades of mistreating American workers, it's going to be tough to get them to decide to really come to the table and sign on the dotted line.
00:22:05.000 But when he does, he's going to sign with that big, long, beautiful signature, and he'll have made a great deal for America.
00:22:10.000 Kevin Hassett is saying deals are coming to the table.
00:22:13.000 Well, we certainly hope that that is the case.
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00:24:41.000 Long-time allies of the president, like, for example, Senator Mike Lee of Utah, who is more on the libertarian end of the spectrum.
00:24:46.000 He said Trump could go down as the most pro-trade, pro-growth president in modern US history if he uses this moment as an opportunity to reduce trade barriers.
00:24:53.000 Senator Ron Johnson, another MAGA ally, he said at some point you have to take yes for an answer.
00:24:57.000 And this comes after Vietnam, Taiwan, the EU.
00:25:01.000 People are coming to the table and they're saying, let's go zero for zero.
00:25:04.000 Let's do this thing.
00:25:05.000 In fact, global leaders are rushing in, trying to get President Trump.
00:25:09.000 To actually agree to these things.
00:25:13.000 According to the New York Times, on Monday, European officials offered to drop tariffs to zero on cars and industrial goods imported from the United States in return for the same treatment.
00:25:21.000 Israel's prime minister stopped by to personally petition Trump on Monday in meetings at the White House.
00:25:25.000 Vietnam's top leader, in a phone call last week, offered to get rid of tariffs on American goods entirely.
00:25:29.000 Indonesia prepared to send a high-level delegation to Washington, D.C. So, is Trump willing to negotiate?
00:25:46.000 This is the big question.
00:25:48.000 This is the big question.
00:25:50.000 Is he willing to negotiate?
00:25:52.000 If the answer, of course, is yes.
00:25:53.000 If the answer is we get to off-ramps?
00:25:55.000 Everything goes back to status quo ante and even better because it's basically the same thing that he did with regard to NAFTA and the USMCA.
00:26:00.000 He negotiated a slightly better version of NAFTA that turned out to be the USMCA and it was good for the American economy.
00:26:05.000 He could certainly do the same thing and get bigger wins from other countries.
00:26:08.000 Not as big as the wins that I think that would be touted given the fact that we don't actually have a 90% tariff regime from the Vietnamese toward America. 0.64
00:26:15.000 Those statistics on that chart were not true.
00:26:17.000 Those were trade deficits.
00:26:19.000 But he could get wins.
00:26:21.000 He could chalk up those wins.
00:26:22.000 He could claim those wins and the economy would start to go up again.
00:26:25.000 And the good news is that because of all of this, he now owns the economy.
00:26:28.000 So if the economy goes up, then he gets all the credit.
00:26:30.000 The converse, of course, is if the economy goes down, he is going to get all the blame, which of course is a point that is being made by people both left and right.
00:26:38.000 Here is Senator John Kennedy from Louisiana making that point.
00:26:42.000 Is President Trump's economy for better or worse now?
00:26:45.000 Do you think it's Donald Trump's economy now?
00:26:48.000 Oh, I think it is.
00:26:49.000 There's no question.
00:26:51.000 I think once he decided to To add the tariffs, clearly, I mean, he will be held responsible, as he should, whether it turns out good or it turns out badly.
00:27:07.000 Okay, so, he is right about that.
00:27:09.000 Meanwhile, Democrats, of course, are hoping for a recession.
00:27:11.000 They want President Trump to steer the economy into a recession.
00:27:14.000 Here is Senator Chuck Schumer, the Senate Minority Leader, saying that Trump is teeing up a new recession.
00:27:18.000 He's obviously rooting for it.
00:27:20.000 Make no mistake about it.
00:27:23.000 Donald Trump is teeing up a nationwide recession.
00:27:28.000 Less than a week after Donald Trump started the largest, dumbest trade war in American history, all the signs say America is heading towards calamity.
00:27:38.000 Okay, so again, they're rooting for all this.
00:27:43.000 So the question is, does he take the off ramp?
00:27:45.000 So we've seen some indicators.
00:27:46.000 Yes, because Bessens is pushing for it and he's saying he's negotiating with Japan.
00:27:50.000 Again, the Nikkei jumped this morning based on all of that.
00:27:53.000 The Nikkei went up significantly, 6%, 7% based on the fact that people think there's going to be an off ramp.
00:28:00.000 And then there are some counter indicators, which is that President Trump is fine with this thing lasting for a while.
00:28:06.000 So yesterday, the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, visited the White House.
00:28:09.000 Israel had offered, before the tariff regime even went into place, to go to zero.
00:28:12.000 Now, the truth is, 98% of American goods going into Israel And again, these are two different things.
00:28:40.000 Trade barriers?
00:28:41.000 I don't know.
00:28:55.000 the trade deficit.
00:28:56.000 I don't know how exactly you're supposed to accomplish that.
00:28:59.000 You can tell Americans that they can't buy Bomba and diamonds and tech.
00:29:02.000 Like, what exactly does that look like?
00:29:03.000 But Netanyahu is basically saying to Trump, I'm going to give you every single thing you want.
00:29:08.000 Just take away the tariffs.
00:29:09.000 Anything you want.
00:29:10.000 We'll get rid of the trade deficit even, the thing you care about.
00:29:13.000 So here's Netanyahu saying that.
00:29:14.000 I can tell you that I said to the president a very simple thing.
00:29:19.000 We will eliminate the trade deficit with the United States.
00:29:24.000 We intend to do it very quickly.
00:29:26.000 We think it's the right thing to do.
00:29:28.000 And we're going to also eliminate trade barriers, a variety of trade barriers that have been put up unnecessarily.
00:29:35.000 And I think Israel can serve as a model for many countries who ought to do the same.
00:29:44.000 So, that is Netanyahu giving Trump all the things that he wants.
00:29:48.000 And then Trump was asked, are you going to reduce the tariffs on Israel?
00:29:50.000 He's like, I don't know.
00:29:52.000 Maybe not.
00:29:53.000 Maybe not.
00:29:53.000 Don't forget, we help Israel a lot.
00:29:56.000 You know, we give Israel $4 billion a year.
00:29:58.000 That's a lot.
00:30:00.000 Congratulations, by the way.
00:30:01.000 That's pretty good.
00:30:05.000 Okay, so we might not.
00:30:08.000 Okay, again, you can make an argument about whether the United States should be providing as much military aid to Israel as they are currently providing.
00:30:16.000 I made the argument that Israel should do its best to get the hell off of American aid as soon as humanly possible.
00:30:20.000 Good for America and good for Israel. 0.99
00:30:21.000 That has literally nothing to do with the trade barrier discussion that is underway.
00:30:26.000 I mean, that is it.
00:30:27.000 That is a counter indicator.
00:30:29.000 Okay, then Trump was asked, will there be any pause in the tariffs?
00:30:31.000 There's no pause.
00:30:32.000 We're going forward full steam.
00:30:33.000 Would you be open to a pause in tariffs to allow for negotiations?
00:30:38.000 Well, we're not looking at that.
00:30:40.000 We have many, many countries that are coming to negotiate deals with us, and they're going to be fair deals, and in certain cases, they're going to be paying substantial tariffs.
00:30:52.000 Okay, and then President Trump says, it might take some time, right?
00:30:55.000 We might be doing this for quite a while.
00:30:56.000 Here's the thing.
00:30:57.000 Right now, this is all theory.
00:30:59.000 Everything that's happening with this tariff plan is all theory.
00:31:01.000 It hasn't gone into place.
00:31:02.000 Once it goes into place, supply lines start changing.
00:31:06.000 Small business owners across the country are going to get smacked with import taxes.
00:31:11.000 And it's going to affect their bottom line in a serious way.
00:31:14.000 Prices are going to go up.
00:31:15.000 Right now, it's all theoretical.
00:31:16.000 It's all fun and games.
00:31:17.000 The minute this becomes practical, the minute Vietnamese goods really do get hit with a 46% tariff coming into the United States.
00:31:23.000 I mean, forget about the Chinese goods, which are now going to be hit with something like a 104% tariff.
00:31:27.000 But at least you can justify that based on security necessity.
00:31:30.000 But EU goods are going to get smacked.
00:31:33.000 Various goods from around the world, Malaysian, Indonesian goods are going to get smacked.
00:31:36.000 Japanese goods are going to get smacked.
00:31:38.000 If that happens, if the rubber actually hits the road, then everything that is currently theoretical discussion becomes reified.
00:31:44.000 And once it's reified, then the markets can make a decision based on new data, actual data, not speculation.
00:31:49.000 Right now the markets are speculating.
00:31:50.000 Will Trump say yes or will Trump say no?
00:31:52.000 Will he stay or will he go?
00:31:53.000 Will he find an off-ramp or will he stay on this tariff regime?
00:31:57.000 And Trump is giving tremendously mixed signals.
00:32:00.000 So, again, here he was saying yesterday it's going to take time.
00:32:02.000 But remember, time is actually not a friend here.
00:32:05.000 Because the longer the tariff regime is in place, the more the reality of higher prices and restricted supply lines is going to become a reality in the real world.
00:32:15.000 You've said it could take two years to get American manufacturing fully up to speed in response to these tariffs.
00:32:21.000 What happens in the meantime?
00:32:23.000 Should Americans be prepared potentially for years?
00:32:25.000 I'll tell you what happens.
00:32:26.000 We have now $7 trillion, think of this, $7 trillion of commitments from companies wanting to go in from Apple to many, many companies.
00:32:38.000 But that takes time.
00:32:38.000 Many from Taiwan.
00:32:39.000 What? It takes time.
00:32:41.000 Of course it takes time.
00:32:43.000 Are you asking me a question or are you telling me?
00:32:45.000 Yeah, it takes time.
00:32:46.000 Thank you.
00:32:48.000 Okay, so let's be clear about this.
00:32:50.000 In order to even build the new factories that he wants to build in the United States requires foreign product.
00:32:54.000 In order to build that new machinery, it requires...
00:32:56.000 Machinery that comes from overseas.
00:32:58.000 We don't have all this stuff made in the United States.
00:33:01.000 And here is the real counter indicator that Trump is looking for deals.
00:33:05.000 Yesterday, he was asked explicitly, what if the EU just goes to zero?
00:33:09.000 What if the EU just says we're getting rid of all the trade barriers?
00:33:12.000 And he says, not enough, because the EU owes us.
00:33:16.000 If that's the case, then this could be happening for a while.
00:33:20.000 And this is why, again, if everybody was very sanguine about the markets, the markets would be spiking and just continue to spike.
00:33:25.000 Because there's always a temporary bump.
00:33:27.000 He's now making great deals.
00:33:28.000 The reason people are kind of wavering is because who the hell knows what's happening?
00:33:34.000 The EU has said that they have offered zero for zero tariffs on cars and industrial goods.
00:33:41.000 Is that not enough?
00:33:42.000 No, it's not.
00:33:44.000 The EU has been very tough over the years.
00:33:48.000 I always say it was formed to really do damage to the United States in trade.
00:33:56.000 Okay, so again, he's saying not enough.
00:33:59.000 So what's he going for?
00:34:00.000 This is the thing the markets are trying to figure out.
00:34:02.000 The EU is trying to figure out.
00:34:03.000 Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the EU.
00:34:04.000 She says, listen, we're ready to negotiate, but it turns out that we do 83% of our trade outside the United States.
00:34:09.000 So if it turns out that we can't trade with the United States, well, we'll just reorient toward China, maybe toward Russia, maybe toward places that are not friendly to the United States.
00:34:17.000 We stand ready to negotiate with the United States.
00:34:21.000 Indeed, we have offered zero for zero tariffs for industrial goods.
00:34:26.000 Thank you very much.
00:34:40.000 for us because this broadens the market opportunities and is crucial for our companies.
00:34:49.000 So we will focus like a laser beam on the 80 83% of global trade that is beyond the United States.
00:34:58.000 Vast opportunities.
00:35:02.000 Okay, so again, that is von der Leyen saying, listen, we'd love to make a deal with the United States if Trump will take the deal.
00:35:06.000 If he won't take the deal, we're going to reorient elsewhere.
00:35:08.000 And this is the question for President Trump.
00:35:10.000 It is the only question that matters.
00:35:12.000 Is he doing these tariffs because he wants reciprocity?
00:35:14.000 He wants a fairer deal, a fairer shake, free trade?
00:35:17.000 Or is he doing this because he wants restrictionism?
00:35:20.000 Because he believes, as he has said many times, that tariffs make us richer.
00:35:23.000 By the way, this is one of the big differences between his hero, William McKinley, the former two-term president of the United States who shot in office during his second term early on.
00:35:33.000 Teddy Roosevelt took over.
00:35:35.000 William McKinley, very early on in his career, he was a congressperson, was extremely pro-tariff.
00:35:41.000 Very, very pro-tariff.
00:35:42.000 He wanted more tariffs because he believed, actually, that we were taking in too much.
00:35:47.000 In terms of revenue to the government.
00:35:49.000 He wanted to lower the amount of revenue to the government, so he actually decided he was going to increase the tariffs to lower the revenue to the government.
00:35:54.000 The increased tariffs actually caused him to lose his seat in Ohio.
00:35:57.000 He then became governor of Ohio, and then he became president.
00:35:59.000 But when he ran for his second term, he explicitly said he wanted to lower tariffs.
00:36:04.000 William McKinley.
00:36:05.000 Because what he wanted was, wait for it, reciprocity.
00:36:08.000 He wanted reciprocity.
00:36:10.000 That's the William McKinley that President Trump needs to be following here.
00:36:14.000 Okay, speaking of which, there will be a fact if it goes the other way.
00:36:17.000 If President Trump decides that tariffs make us rich and make us strong, then things go the other way.
00:36:21.000 As the Wall Street Journal points out today, the Anderson Economic Group estimated last week auto tariffs alone could increase the cost for smaller cars like the Honda Civic and VW Jetta by $2,500 to $4,500, cost for larger vehicles that are more heavily affected by the tariffs like the Chevy Suburban, GMC Yukon, Cadillac Escalade.
00:36:38.000 Remember, all American companies could rise by $10,000 to $12,000.
00:36:42.000 Used car prices will also climb, according to AEG, as demand increases among consumers who don't want to pay higher prices for new cars.
00:36:49.000 If tariffs cause carmakers to reduce U.S.
00:36:50.000 inventory, car prices rise even more.
00:36:52.000 Volkswagen said last week it would stop rail shipments to the United States from Mexico.
00:36:56.000 The auto tariffs will cause Americans to pay $30 billion more for cars in the first year, while investors and employees, manufacturers, suppliers, and dealers in the automotive industry will absorb at least another $30 billion in tariff costs, according to AEG.
00:37:15.000 Steel prices in the United States rose 20% in 2018 as domestic manufacturers took advantage of tariffs to raise prices.
00:37:22.000 According to former Ford CEO James Hackett, the tariffs reduced Ford's profit by a billion dollars.
00:37:27.000 Consumers and auto dealers ended up eating the costs.
00:37:30.000 Okay, so the idea that this isn't going to apply at home, that somehow everybody is exempt?
00:37:34.000 That is obviously not true.
00:37:35.000 Maria Bartiromo over on Fox News makes the same point.
00:37:39.000 They have an effect on Main Street.
00:37:41.000 Some things will become higher priced.
00:37:43.000 We will see some products actually be raised in price because companies will pass on the cost of tariffs to consumers.
00:37:52.000 I would expect that.
00:37:54.000 That's why you have some people saying that we could see a recession.
00:37:57.000 We'll see a growth slowdown.
00:38:00.000 Okay, so, Bart Romo's not wrong if Trump goes the wrong way.
00:38:04.000 Mr. President, go the right way here.
00:38:06.000 You have the leverage.
00:38:07.000 Use leverage to make great trade deals.
00:38:09.000 You're the dealmaker.
00:38:10.000 Do it.
00:38:11.000 Make the awesome deals.
00:38:12.000 Take the off-ramp.
00:38:14.000 Because if you don't, then what comes next?
00:38:17.000 There's no way except for your administration to own whatever comes next.
00:38:21.000 And there will be pain.
00:38:22.000 I mean, you yourself have said so.
00:38:23.000 According to the Wall Street Journal, workers at Michigan's biggest auto factories are tightening their belts in case tariffs spark layoffs by causing a spike in vehicle prices and a drop in demand.
00:38:31.000 One auto executive early last week darkly predicted Chernobyl if tariffs broadly hit imported parts, which they are scheduled to do next month.
00:38:38.000 There are some, of course, like the United Auto Workers Union, who are happy about all of this because they believe that they are going to somehow increase their share of car employment in the United States.
00:38:49.000 But of course they believe that when the auto industry in the United States was bloated during the 50s and 60s, the UAW is what caused the bloat.
00:38:56.000 Meanwhile, President Trump is threatening to veto a bill that would curve his power over tariffs.
00:39:02.000 So again, if the idea is that Trump isn't going to Trump will own everything that comes next, good or bad.
00:39:06.000 Hopefully it's all good.
00:39:07.000 Hopefully it's wonderful.
00:39:08.000 Hopefully President Trump succeeds, as I've said before.
00:39:28.000 This is a legislative power that is allocated.
00:39:57.000 The one thing that the founders never predicted is that the legislative branch of the United States would basically just give up all of its power to the executive.
00:40:08.000 And meanwhile, all of this assumes that Republicans actually get done what they need to get done with the one big beautiful tax bill.
00:40:15.000 And that is now in some risk.
00:40:17.000 According to the Wall Street Journal, House Republicans' moves to advance President Trump's one big beautiful bill this week have been cast into doubt by defections from GOP lawmakers worried that spending cuts are being pushed aside in a rush to enact tax reductions.
00:40:27.000 Republican leaders want to vote on a fiscal framework that would unlock a fast track to legislation carrying Trump's priorities.
00:40:33.000 Both Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson are hoping to show progress on extending those expiring tax cuts to counteract the market chaos sparked in recent sessions by Trump's tariff rollout.
00:40:41.000 Now, let's be clear about this.
00:40:42.000 The market has already priced in the Big Beautiful Bill.
00:40:44.000 They believe that the Big Beautiful Bill is going to get done.
00:40:47.000 The market is not going to spike on the Big Beautiful Bill getting done.
00:40:50.000 The market is going to dump on news that it doesn't get done.
00:40:53.000 This is all downside risk for the Republicans if they do not pass something here.
00:40:57.000 Speaker Johnson says the American people are counting on us.
00:41:00.000 Failure is not an option.
00:41:02.000 In a post on Truth Social, President Trump directed the House to pass the Senate measure quickly, saying it will make even the subject of world trade far easier and better for the United States.
00:41:10.000 But the House GOP is fracturing.
00:41:12.000 Republican opponents already have more than enough declared no votes to block the House from passing a version that came out of the Senate on Saturday.
00:41:19.000 They say the Senate version doesn't lock in enough spending cuts alongside tax cuts, and pushing it forward now risks unacceptably large budget deficits.
00:41:27.000 So, Johnson presumably is going to push on Trump to lean on the Republicans.
00:41:31.000 It's not just members of the House Freedom Caucus like Chip Roy or Andy Harris.
00:41:35.000 It's also Lloyd Smucker of Pennsylvania, David Schweikert of Arizona, who's concerned about budget deficits.
00:41:41.000 Now again, one of the things that I find bizarre about the sort of Republican take on budget deficits, the reason for the budget deficits is systemic in nature.
00:41:50.000 You ain't going to be able to bend that cost curve just by doing some Minor cuts around the edges of various programs.
00:41:59.000 The rule of politics is really, on some of these things, go big or go home.
00:42:03.000 Incrementalism in these bills, sure, would be better than nothing, but I'll tell you what, I'm not sure that it would be better than nothing in this case.
00:42:10.000 Seriously. Given the fact that the downside risk here is you don't pass anything, I think the bill passes, and it has to pass, because if it doesn't, the economy really does bottom out, because it means an automatic tax increase in the very near future.
00:42:24.000 And meanwhile, while all this is happening, again, President Trump is chalking up wins on a number of other fronts.
00:42:29.000 So yesterday, President Trump chalked up a win at the Supreme Court of the United States over the Alien Enemies Act.
00:42:36.000 According to NBC News, the Supreme Court on Monday threw out a judge's decision to block the removal of men alleged to be members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua to El Salvador without any legal process under the Alien Enemies Act.
00:42:46.000 That ruling, which was a 5-4 ruling, means the Trump administration can try to resume deportations under the Alien Enemies Act so long as detainees are given due process.
00:42:54.000 Detainees must be given time to challenge their detentions via a habeas corpus claim and be able to challenge whether the act is being lawfully applied.
00:43:01.000 So the Supreme Court is saying the Alien Enemies Act still applies.
00:43:06.000 They can invoke it against gang members.
00:43:08.000 According to the unsigned majority opinion, AEA detainees must receive notice after the date of this order they are subject to removal under the act.
00:43:14.000 The notice must be afforded within a reasonable time and in such a manner as will allow them to seek Habeas relief in the proper venue before such removal occurs, but it lifts the order from Judge James Boasberg, who had blocked the Trump administration from deporting people under the Alien Enemies Act.
00:43:30.000 Five conservative justices in the majority, Amy Coney Barrett, joined the libs.
00:43:35.000 Meanwhile, Justice Sonia Sotomayor, who is the worst justice on the court, she said the government's conduct in this litigation poses an extraordinary threat to the rule of law.
00:43:42.000 We as a nation and a court of law should be better than this.
00:43:45.000 Oh, better than this, better than this.
00:43:46.000 All these...
00:43:47.000 Same people on the left.
00:43:48.000 We're perfectly fine with Joe Biden completely ignoring the law in a wide variety of cases, including, for example, using the OSHA regime in order to cram down vaccines on 80 million Americans.
00:43:57.000 But they're deeply worried if the Trump administration cites the Alien Enemies Act to give people due process and then port them off to El Salvador.
00:44:05.000 This is a win for President Trump.
00:44:07.000 He's going to get to continue the deportations.
00:44:09.000 Meanwhile... So, to University of Texas at Austin and Minnesota State University, Mankato, the University of California had dozens of cases reported across its campuses.
00:44:29.000 Why? Well, it turns out that immigration officers have arrested international students related to their involvement in pro-Khamas causes.
00:44:39.000 The administration continues to move fast and break things with regard to deporting students who shouldn't be here in the first place.
00:44:46.000 People who are basically activists in the guise of students and who are brought here for no apparent reason other than to enrich the coffers of these universities and import anti-Americanism and anti-Westernism.
00:44:57.000 So, the Trump administration continues to win on that front.
00:45:01.000 Meanwhile, there's a shocking report out of Doge showing the impact of Joe Biden's open border regime.
00:45:08.000 According to Breitbart, Doge official Antonio Gracias says millions of migrants who are welcome to the United States under former President Biden are now on the nation's Medicaid rolls and voter rolls, with some having voted in last year's elections.
00:45:19.000 This is an episode of the All In podcast in which I recently appeared.
00:45:23.000 Antonio Gracias was there as well, and he laid it all out.
00:45:26.000 It's pretty amazing.
00:45:27.000 He said that thousands of illegal immigrants were registered to vote in friendly states, and we looked even further in those friendly states and found that many of those people actually had voted.
00:45:37.000 That doesn't include the 7.8 million people ICE has that have come in illegally that we know are here, and all the people who are here illegally that we don't know are here.
00:45:45.000 This is what Doge exists to do, is to ferret out all of this, and that's why it's very important that Doge continue its hard work.
00:45:51.000 Meanwhile, President Trump announced yesterday that the United States is in direct talks with Iran, that there are direct negotiations happening between the Iranian government and the United States government, the United States, of course, trying to get Iran to give up its nuclear regime.
00:46:04.000 Iran admitted, by the way, this week.
00:46:05.000 I can just tell you there's a major meeting going on between us and Iran, and that'll take place on Saturday, and it's at top level.
00:46:35.000 He continued by saying, listen, if those talks are unsuccessful, then other options are on the table, which is what he has always said.
00:46:41.000 I think if the talks aren't successful with Iran, I think Iran is going to be in great danger.
00:46:48.000 And I hate to say it, great danger, because they can't have a nuclear weapon.
00:46:54.000 Okay, which of course is true.
00:46:55.000 A nuclear Iran not only threatens Israel, it also threatens the Saudis, it threatens global oil supply, it threatens the spread of terrorism around not just the region, but around the globe. 0.98
00:47:04.000 Tucker Carlson found this an appropriate time to tweet yesterday.
00:47:08.000 Quote, whatever you think of tariffs, it's clear that now is the worst possible time for the United States to participate in a military strike on Iran.
00:47:14.000 We can't afford it.
00:47:15.000 Thousands of Americans would die.
00:47:16.000 We would lose the war that follows.
00:47:18.000 Nothing would be more destructive to our country.
00:47:21.000 Okay, so the false binary that has always been created around the Middle East is that if you hit a target in the Middle East, full-scale war erupts and thousands and millions die.
00:47:30.000 Full-scale invasion of Iran. 0.79
00:47:31.000 Barack Obama used to say the same crap and it isn't true.
00:47:34.000 How do I know it's not true?
00:47:35.000 Because literally, Donald Trump did it in his first term.
00:47:38.000 He took out Qasem Soleimani, who's the head of the IRGC's terror mechanism, and nothing happened.
00:47:44.000 That is what happened.
00:47:46.000 Nothing. And this idea that a strike on the Iranian nuclear facilities would result in what?
00:47:51.000 Iran attacking Hawaii? 0.59
00:47:53.000 Widespread war?
00:47:55.000 Nope! But again, these false binaries that Tucker likes to posit.
00:48:00.000 Effectively act as cover for the Iranian regime, because again, if the idea is that you have to let Iran go nuclear rather than striking their nuclear facilities, thus endangering extraordinary elements of importance to the American national security apparatus, ranging again from Saudi and UAE to Israel, the Suez Canal, the Red Sea, and all the rest, the Straits of Hormuz, if that's the idea, then you may as well just surrender the Middle East to the Iranians now, which of course, I don't know what Tucker's feelings are on that.
00:48:26.000 He was interviewing the Emir of Qatar.
00:48:28.000 Qatar is essentially a cutout front for the Iranian regime. 0.65
00:48:32.000 And he's treating them with great care, shall we say.
00:48:35.000 President Trump obviously does not follow that same belief system.
00:48:38.000 Neither does the rest of the administration.
00:48:40.000 Thank goodness.
00:48:41.000 Alrighty, coming up, we're going to jump into the mailbag.
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00:48:46.000 And if you do, then you can ask me questions.
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