Joe Biden finally ends Bernie s Red Dreams, Biden gets aggressive with Michigan voters, and Coronavirus continues to haunt the country. Ben Shapiro explains why he thinks Biden is more formidable than Bernie, and why he doesn t think Donald Trump is going to beat Joe Biden in the 2020 Democratic primary. Plus, a look at why Biden is a better candidate than Bernie when it comes to fundraising and getting out the vote. The Ben Shapiro Show is sponsored by ExpressVPN. Your data is your business, protected at ExpressVpn.com/BenShapiroShow. Ben Shapiro is a columnist for The Daily Wire, The Weekly Standard, and The New York Times Magazine. He's also a regular contributor to CBS Radio and other media outlets. His new book, is out now, and is available for pre-order on Amazon Prime and Vimeo worldwide. If you like what you hear, please HIT SUBSCRIBE and leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts. The opinions stated here are our own, not those of our corporate clients. We do not endorse any political campaigns, unless otherwise specified in the book or any other of our clients' work. Thank you for supporting the work we mention in the show. It is your support is greatly appreciated and helps us to support our efforts to make a better listening experience for our listeners. Thanks for listening and supporting the show and sharing it. - Ben Shapiro's words help us out there! - Thank you, Ben Shapiro s work is very much appreciated! - The Best Fiends and Good Morning Joe Biden's work is also helps us make it easier for us to reach more people across the country and around the world. -- Thank you! -- Ben Shapiro -- The Best of Ben Shapiro, BetterHelp Thanks to Ben Shapiro and Sarah Kaspbrak -- Best Fiels -- Subscribe to the Nation? Thank You, Sarah Gooding & Good Morning America? Thanks, Sarah Badger Sarah Good Morning? -- Good Morning And much more! -- -- and Good Luck, Sarah's Workday -- Please Like It's Better than That's a Good Day Good Morning, Good Night, Good Luck & Good Luck by Sarah Good Night Love & Good Night & Thank You & Good Blessings, by Mr. Good Luck?
00:00:08.000The Ben Shapiro Show is sponsored by ExpressVPN.
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00:00:20.000Well, I know that right now you're thinking to yourself, where did this sexy new voice come from, Ben Shapiro?
00:00:24.000Well, the answer is that it came from not sleeping for a full week, thanks to my child, combined with a fast day earlier this week.
00:00:31.000So no, I'm not dying of coronavirus, and no, it has not translated into this brand new Barry White-like voice.
00:00:36.000No, indeed, this is just me being a little bit dried out.
00:00:39.000So hopefully my voice will be back to its nasal self quite soon.
00:00:42.000Well, the big news last night, Joe Biden has taken command of the Democratic race.
00:00:46.000He won four states, including Michigan in the primaries last night.
00:00:49.000And that puts an end to Bernie Sanders and his red dreams, which is great news for the country.
00:00:54.000It really is good news for the country because it would have been very bad.
00:00:57.000If one of our major parties had circulated around a human being who was a backer of every communist regime known to man and was basically a Soviet fellow traveler for 30 years before the Soviet Union actually fell.
00:01:10.000I know there are a lot of people in Republican and conservative circles who today are a little bit upset because they feel like Bernie Sanders was more beatable than Joe Biden.
00:01:17.000First of all, I think that Biden is eminently beatable.
00:01:19.000If Donald Trump cannot beat a geriatric, half-senile, half-corrupt Joe Biden, then honestly, that's on Trump.
00:01:27.000Joe Biden is not a formidable candidate by any stretch of the imagination.
00:01:31.000If Trump is unable to beat him, that is on no one except for President Trump.
00:01:35.000There are a lot of ways in which Hillary Clinton was actually a more formidable candidate than Joe Biden, namely that Hillary Clinton was capable of stringing a sentence together from time to time and was not apparently going senile.
00:01:45.000She had other health problems, but senility was not one of them.
00:01:47.000When I say that Biden is senile, by the way, again, this is not ageism.
00:01:53.000When you watch Joe Biden talk, the man can barely hold it together for a particular period of time.
00:01:58.000And this is why his campaign has already said he's going to start doing shorter speeches, not longer speeches.
00:02:02.000Look for him to barely be on the campaign trail in long, drawn out scenarios.
00:02:08.000In fact, there's supposed to be a debate next week.
00:02:11.000It's supposed to take place between Joe Biden and Bernie, because Bernie isn't dropping out.
00:02:14.000He's going to carry this thing all the way to the convention, so he can try to parlay his delegates into some sort of power inside the DNC.
00:02:20.000Well, they're supposed to basically have a one-on-one debate for two hours, no audience.
00:02:23.000Now, normally, that would really help Biden.
00:02:26.000The reason there's no audience, of course, is because of coronavirus.
00:02:28.000Coronavirus concerns had both Biden and Bernie canceling rallies last night.
00:02:32.000Biden gave his victory speech to a half-empty house, essentially.
00:02:37.000They're supposed to have a debate the way that debates actually should be had in presidential arenas, which is no audience, because who the audience is really stacks the room.
00:02:46.000Bernie has benefited in debates where a lot of his supporters are there, people shouting and screaming for Bernie.
00:02:51.000Well, when there is no actual audience, then who exactly is Bernie going to play to?
00:02:57.000There is one area, though, where Biden is particularly vulnerable, and that is that Biden has been able to hide behind the fact that there are 1,000 people on stage up until now to talk for like a grand total of 16 minutes.
00:03:08.000Well, what happens when he suddenly has to fill an hour?
00:03:10.000I mean, Joe Biden can't fill a paragraph without making some sort of awful gaffe about his wife being his sister or running for Senate.
00:04:28.000He's there like mashed potatoes are there.
00:04:30.000And so people ran to Joe Biden as a sort of sense of security in an ever-changing, ever-volatile world.
00:04:36.000We're going to get to more of these results and we'll get to Biden's response and Bernie's response and all of this because Bernie is done.
00:04:46.000As we will see, the demographic breakdown last night is very bad for the moderates in the Democratic Party for the future going forward from here.
00:04:53.000But we'll get to that in just a moment first.
00:04:55.000Let's talk about these are times when you just want to feel safe in your home.
00:04:58.000I mean, you do want to feel safe in your home, not just from things like coronavirus, but obviously from rising levels of crime in a lot of America's major cities.
00:05:04.000There's a story just the other day about rising street crime in New York.
00:05:07.000Here in Los Angeles, we've had serious cases of rising crime.
00:05:53.000You know, I have serious security concerns because of who I am, but just generally because there have been breakings and enterings in the neighborhood lately.
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00:06:21.000So according to the New York Times, Joe Biden took command of the Democratic presidential race in decisive fashion on Tuesday, marshalling a powerful Multiracial coalition in the South and the Midwest that swept aside Senator Bernie Sanders and completed Mr. Biden's rapid transformation from a sometimes fumbling underdog into his party's likely nominee.
00:06:36.000Well, he's still fumbling, but now he's the party's likely nominee.
00:06:39.000Replicating the combination of voters that delivered him broad victories a week ago on Super Tuesday, Biden won Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi with overwhelming support from African Americans and with large margins among suburban and rural white voters.
00:06:51.000Biden was also named the winner in Idaho Leaving little doubt by the end of the night that Sanders had lost his recent status as the progressive frontrunner in a race defined for months by feuding and factionalism on the moderate wing of the Democratic Party.
00:07:01.000It wasn't until Wednesday morning that Sanders picked up his first victory in North Dakota.
00:07:05.000Washington remained too close to call.
00:07:08.000Biden demonstrated his successes on Super Tuesday reflected more than fleeting good fortune and that many Democratic voters had rallied behind his candidacy in a lasting enough way to erase his embarrassing setbacks last month in Iowa and New Hampshire.
00:07:20.000So Joe Biden took to the stage last night to announce that he wants the support of the Bernie people.
00:07:26.000He doesn't want them running headlong from him.
00:07:46.000We're regenerating a democratic base, the Democratic Party, the African American community, high school educated folks like the ones I grew up with in Claymont, not far from here.
00:07:56.000In my old neighborhood, labor, suburban women, veterans, firefighters, union members, and so many more.
00:08:05.000He's barely alive, but that might be what voters are looking for in an era where, again, you don't know what's coming around the next bend, and President Trump is not exactly a beacon of stability, and neither is Bernie Sanders.
00:08:14.000Joe Biden is not a beacon of stability in the sense that he might topple over literally at any time, but You get the feeling that, again, people who are barely not comatose generally do not provide a serious threat to people's feeling of sort of stability.
00:08:29.000So there was Joe Biden last night trying to reach out to the Bernie Sanders people.
00:08:32.000Bernie's not going to have any of that, by the way.
00:08:34.000Bernie did not give a speech last night.
00:08:35.000When he gives a concession speech, it will likely be laced with all sorts of references to how the Democratic Party stepped in and stopped him.
00:08:43.000And again, none of this is to say that the future of the Democratic Party is bright here.
00:08:46.000Even if Joe Biden were to win, the future of the Democratic Party is with the insane, radical, progressive agenda of Bernie Sanders.
00:08:53.000The age gaps in the Michigan exit polls are absolutely astonishing.
00:08:58.000This is according to the New York Times.
00:09:00.000If you were 18 to 24, which only represented 7% of voters because young people do not vote.
00:09:05.000It's a puzzle that Bernie never was able to solve because no one has ever been able to solve young voters not voting.
00:09:51.000If you're between the ages of 25 and 29, 81% of those voters in Michigan voted for Bernie Sanders.
00:09:57.000If you were between 30 and 39, 62% of those voters voted for Bernie Sanders, compared to just 34 who voted for Joe Biden.
00:10:05.000If you're between 40 and 49, Bernie still won a slight majority, 51 to 45 of those voters.
00:10:10.000It's among the older demographics, everybody over the age of 50, that Biden just cleaned up.
00:10:15.000Between 50 and 64, he won 66% of the vote.
00:10:18.000Between 65 and death, he won 73% of the vote.
00:10:21.000So that means that Biden is still relying on this older coalition of voters.
00:10:25.000That doesn't mean that He's gonna lose the election because younger voters don't like him.
00:10:29.000It does mean that the future of the Democratic Party looks a lot more like Bernie Sanders and a lot less like Joe Biden.
00:10:36.000Now, with that said, there was a suburban surge for Joe Biden.
00:10:40.000According to the Washington Post, Biden's victory in Michigan was powered by landslide margins in the Detroit suburbs, places where turnout had been low in the 2016 primary.
00:10:47.000The same patterns played out in other states voting on Tuesday.
00:11:14.000That tracks with what happened in the state's 2018 and 2019 elections, when even as Democrats lost statewide races, they gained ground in suburbs.
00:11:21.000And that pattern was even more stark in Missouri.
00:11:23.000It was a swing state just 10 years ago, but now it has become a very red state.
00:11:27.000Turnout may be flat from 2016, but in Clay County, which is the suburbs north of Kansas City, 29,000 votes were cast with one precinct left to report.
00:11:35.000Four years ago, only 23,000 votes were cast in the county.
00:11:38.000From then to now, Sanders lost ground, winning 12,500 votes in that contest with Clinton.
00:11:42.000He came in below 11,000 votes on Tuesday, an easy win for Joe Biden.
00:11:48.000The bottom line is that moderate suburbanites are coming out in droves.
00:11:51.000Now, this may mean, this may mean bad news for President Trump.
00:11:55.000This is an area where President Trump is particularly weak.
00:11:58.000Moderate suburbanites are the area that Trump really needs to make up some ground, right?
00:12:03.000It's the area where he sort of, basically the trade he made with Mitt Romney was Mitt Romney won a lot of these suburban people.
00:12:47.000Now, the Democratic Party has picked and chosen from Bernie's agenda, right?
00:12:50.000They've picked from the Bernie tree, but that does not mean that Bernie is in good standing with the Democratic Party or anything like that.
00:12:55.000So bringing him back into the fold, Hillary was not able to bring Bernie back into the fold in 2016 after Bernie appeared to be the de facto Democratic nominee just three weeks ago.
00:13:05.000Him being rejected by an overwhelming number of big-name Democratic donors, as well as a lot of big-name Democratic politicians and the DNC.
00:13:14.000You could see the Bernie bros just saying, listen, we'll stay home.
00:13:17.000As much as Joe Biden is trying to reach out to the Bernie bros, a lot of Bernie bros are not going to be into this.
00:13:23.000And despite the attempts by the Pod Save America crowd to say we gotta rally to beat Trump, I am not certain, I really am not certain that there are a lot of Bernie Sanders voters who hate Trump more than they hate the Democratic Party establishment.
00:13:35.000I think there may be a lot of Bernie voters who hate the Democratic establishment more and want to punish the Democratic establishment for nominating Biden and so simply just don't go to vote.
00:13:45.000By the way, the same thing would have happened inside the Republican Party if Trump had not been given the nomination at the convention.
00:13:50.000If Trump had ended up being skunked at the very last minute by a coalition, there's a good shot that a lot of those Trump voters would have just said, listen, we're not going to show up.
00:13:57.000Especially if it had been in favor of Jeb.
00:14:00.000If it had been in favor of somebody who is long considered sort of the next in line, there would have been a lot of Republican voters who would have walked away from the Republican Party.
00:14:08.000The same thing could be in the offing.
00:14:10.000And the Democrats are making a fairly large scale mistake If they continue to let Bernie Sanders debate Biden, he's just going to damage Biden.
00:14:22.000If they don't, then Bernie's going to claim that everything is wrong and that everything is corrupt and that everything is foul, and then he's going to drive his supporters away from the Democratic Party.
00:14:30.000So it's a bit of a catch-22 for the Democrats.
00:14:32.000They either have to bet that most Bernie voters are going to come around, Whatever Bernie says, or they have to bet that if they give Bernie another shot, like allow him a bunch of debates, then Bernie will somehow become a team player at the last moment.
00:14:45.000Neither one of those are particularly good bets.
00:14:47.000Again, this is one of the problems with humoring the alligator until he eats you last.
00:14:51.000We'll get to more of this in just one second.
00:14:52.000First, let us talk about a great pair of earbuds.
00:14:55.000So, what kind of earbuds are you using to listen to the show?
00:16:31.000Why are we allowing Bernie on stage some more?
00:16:34.000We gotta acknowledge that he created a movement.
00:16:36.000He did some truly remarkable things in American politics.
00:16:40.000And certainly Vice President Biden, we've got to talk to him and discuss this.
00:16:44.000But we also, we can't diss these Democratic voters who are just coming out in every corner of this country saying, let's get on with this thing.
00:16:53.000Now, our mission as a party is to defeat Donald Trump.
00:16:56.000According to FiveThirtyEight, there's a 99 to 1 chance.
00:17:03.000Okay, so he's saying no more debates, no more primaries.
00:17:32.000Okay, but that does not mean that he can't make trouble from the outside.
00:17:35.000James Clarberin trying to do the same thing.
00:17:37.000Again, this does give the sense inside the Democratic Party that the Democratic Party elite, that the heads of the Democratic Party are trying to shut down Bernie, which of course is exactly the Exactly the message that Bernie wishes to promote.
00:17:48.000I mean, what Bernie would love more than anything else is to spend the next two months fulminating about how the Democratic Party shut the door on him the minute that they got the opportunity.
00:17:55.000They barely opened the door wide enough to let him through, and then the minute he stuck his foot in, they proceeded to cut off his toes.
00:18:10.000In any case, James Clyburn, who is the chief sponsor of Joe Biden's victory in South Carolina, his late stage endorsement was very important to Biden.
00:18:17.000Clyburn said there shouldn't be any more debates.
00:18:22.000I think we will be at a point where Joe Biden will be the prohibitive nominee of the party.
00:18:30.000And I think the DNC, the Democratic National Committee, should then step in, make an assessment and determine whether or not they ought to have Any more debates?
00:18:41.000So again, this does look like the Biden team attempting to shut down all future possibilities for Bernie Sanders, for Bernie re-entering the debate, which could theoretically be the worst move.
00:18:51.000Van Jones on CNN, he was saying, listen, this is a mistake.
00:18:54.000Biden needs to reach out to Bernie somehow.
00:18:56.000Now, the problem is there isn't a great way to reach out for the craggy, old, annoying communist.
00:19:03.000What exactly do you do to bring that guy inside the tent?
00:19:05.000Here's Van Jones saying that Biden needs to do more.
00:19:07.000But again, how do you negotiate with a political militant like Bernie Sanders?
00:19:11.000They thought that they were going to be able to surround a divided establishment with their movement, crush that divided establishment, and move forward.
00:19:18.000Instead, the establishment united and stopped them.
00:19:23.000Last time Bernie Sanders got beaten, there was an assumption that all his people were just going to fall in line and vote against Trump, and there was not enough care for the concern and the pain of his base.
00:19:35.000I think tonight there's going to be a lot of crowing, a lot of relief on the part of the establishment, but keep it temperate.
00:19:40.000And turn, turn to those people and say, we want to be your champion.
00:19:44.000If you don't do that, you're going to have a period victory.
00:19:58.000They thought that Buttigieg was too much of a sellout.
00:20:00.000What do you think they think of Joe Biden, an 80 year old Lifelong Democrat whose great accomplishments have included naming train stations after himself on Amtrak.
00:20:09.000What do you think that they think about that guy?
00:20:11.000What do you think they think about the guy who was taking institutional democratic money?
00:20:14.000What do you think they think about a guy?
00:20:16.000Every relative of whose has actually been involved in some or other form of corruption.
00:20:22.000I don't think those people come back inside the tent.
00:20:24.000And that is the largest institutional obstacle to Joe Biden becoming president of the United States.
00:20:31.000Now, again, Joe Biden's basic pitch, and he was throwing it out there yesterday, is that Joe Biden was going to be a solidifying figure in American politics.
00:20:41.000There's a problem with that, too, which is that Joe Biden is not himself particularly solid.
00:20:45.000As I say, the fact that he is nearly comatose is probably his best asset.
00:20:48.000I've been saying this really since he declared that the fact that he's almost a dead person, almost literally, that that is actually a good thing for him because it makes people feel that he is not threatening to them.
00:20:58.000He's not going to leap off that deathbed and suddenly club you over the head with Medicare for All.
00:21:02.000That's not something that Joe Biden is capable of doing.
00:21:04.000But in a campaign, the notion that he is some sort of real return to grace That is an overstatement by the media, and I think people are going to find that out really quickly.
00:21:14.000Donald Trump does have a few lines of attack on Joe Biden that he has yet to lose.
00:21:19.000He did go after Joe Biden on the Hunter Biden stuff.
00:21:22.000There was a report yesterday that James Biden, who is Joe's brother, is now in trouble over basically going to some sort of health firm and suggesting to them that his brother was going to sponsor government regulation that would help the company.
00:21:33.000And they proceeded to build the firm of hundreds of thousands of dollars.
00:21:36.000We know that some of his other brothers have been involved in some stuff like this.
00:21:39.000I think it was Frank who was involved in some corrupt activity or alleged corrupt activity down in Florida.
00:21:44.000So that is one line of attack that you can expect from President Trump.
00:21:47.000Obviously, you're going to see President Trump hit Sleepy Joe for being, again, on the verge of senility.
00:21:53.000But the third line of attack is that Joe Biden isn't himself that stable.
00:21:57.000So Joe Biden has been perceived as a more stable quantity than Donald Trump, because pretty much everybody is perceived as a more stable quantity than Donald Trump.
00:22:06.000But when Joe Biden makes the pitch that he is sort of the savior of American grace, it's a weird pitch.
00:22:24.000And let's say this employee was always on the bubble, like this person was pretty much useless when you hired him.
00:22:28.000And so you decided, okay, well let's try him in a talent role.
00:22:30.000And then he proved himself to be slightly less useless in the talent role.
00:22:34.000And then let's say that he went to a conference, let's call it CPAC.
00:22:37.000Or he proceeded to hobnob with a bunch of people.
00:22:39.000And it turns out that somebody at CPAC had coronavirus.
00:22:41.000And then instead of self-quarantining, let's say this person just strolled on into the office, was taking off his shirt, throwing his skin cells everywhere.
00:22:49.000Let's say he's just hacking up a lung.
00:22:51.000And let's say that he was on the verge of basically poisoning everybody in your office with coronavirus.
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00:24:03.000So as I say, Joe Biden's final pitch really is that he is a return to character that's This is what he's been, this was his opening ad, it is now his closing ad.
00:24:10.000Here is Joe Biden making that pitch last night.
00:24:13.000Everything that has made America, America is truly at stake.
00:24:20.000I believe this nation can overcome four years of Donald Trump, but given eight, four more years, he'll forever and fundamentally change the very character of this nation.
00:24:44.000Joe Biden is not a good messenger for this pitch.
00:24:46.000He is not a good messenger for this pitch.
00:24:49.000Like, yesterday, he was in Michigan, he was campaigning, and a bunch of hardhats in Michigan walk up to him and start asking about his gun policy.
00:24:58.000I mean, we have proof that he's a gun grabber.
00:25:00.000Joe Biden, in this exchange, proceeds to threaten to kick somebody's ass, threatens to take it outside, Suggests that somebody's being a horse's ass.
00:25:08.000And then also lies about his gun record.
00:25:11.000Now, I know there are a lot of people on the right who are like, well, you know, how could Joe Biden act like this?
00:25:20.000The thing is that Biden lies about his record consistently, but also it does undercut Joe Biden's I am a statesman routine when he is not, in fact, all that statesman like.
00:25:28.000He has been kind of a slightly kooky uncle figure.
00:25:32.000Here is Joe Biden being a slightly kooky uncle figure who gets drunk at the family picnic and then threatens to fight you after you say that the Yankees are overrated this year.
00:25:39.000You are actually trying to administer second.
00:26:47.000Okay, let's just remember Joe Biden five minutes ago suggesting he was going to put full-on, full-tilt gun grabber Beto O'Rourke in charge of his national gun policy.
00:27:42.000This is your captain of stability and also a person who is indeed lying about his own record, which is something that Biden has done routinely.
00:27:49.000I don't know whether he actually knows he's lying or whether he just thinks he's telling the truth.
00:27:52.000I really don't know, which is a great quality in a politician, seriously, when they don't even know whether they're lying.
00:27:58.000I remember when Joe Biden was debating Paul Ryan in the vice presidential debate back in 2012.
00:28:02.000And Joe Biden just said, in the middle of the debate, that Lebanon had kicked Iran out of the country.
00:28:09.000And I just remember thinking, is that a thing that happened?
00:28:11.000Like, I don't remember any of that happening.
00:28:14.000And Ryan, I think, also had the reaction like, I'm pretty sure that didn't happen, but I can't call him on it because maybe I'm wrong.
00:28:19.000But the fact is that Joe Biden does have an unusual facility to say things that are not true with a straight face, mainly because I'm not sure that he knows they're not true.
00:28:27.000But bottom line is that Joe Biden, if the image of him is a font of rationality and foundational stability in a time of volatility, I'm not sure this is your guy.
00:28:39.000I mean, five minutes ago, he was saying to people, he was calling people fat on the campaign trail, calling him a damn liar.
00:28:44.000This was like two months ago, two months ago.
00:28:47.000You're selling access to the president just like this.
00:29:43.000Donald Trump is not radically different from Joe Biden in any appreciable way in terms of his attitudes or in terms of the language he uses.
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00:32:30.000Well, in coronavirus news, the British health minister and conservative member of parliament, Nadine Dorries, has been diagnosed with coronavirus now.
00:32:43.000So the Health Minister of Great Britain has coronavirus.
00:33:23.000coronavirus case was announced January 21st in Washington state.
00:33:26.000The pace of diagnosis has quickened significantly in recent weeks.
00:33:28.000At the start of the month, 70 cases had been reported in this country, most of them tied to overseas travel.
00:33:33.000Since then, new cases have been pouring in by the dozens and then by the hundreds.
00:33:37.000The coronavirus updates are coming fast and furious.
00:33:39.000The mayor of New York, Bill de Blasio, he said that there are lots of cases coming in, like dozens per day, in New York City.
00:33:45.000As testing is made available, it is obvious that there are a lot of people who are at least carrying coronavirus without knowing that they are carrying coronavirus.
00:33:53.000The German public has now been warned that up to 70% of Germans face the possibility of infection.
00:34:10.000Keeping the workplace safe, keeping the homes safe, keeping the schools safe, and keeping commercial establishments safe.
00:34:18.000This should be universal for the country.
00:34:20.000Everyone should be doing that, whether you live in a zone that has community spread or not.
00:34:26.000When you have community spread, you're obviously going to ratchet up the kinds of mitigations that you have, but at a minimum, This is the minimum that we should be doing.
00:34:36.000So everybody should say, all hands on deck, this is what we need to do.
00:34:40.000In non-shocking news, thanks to, again, the up and down of the coronavirus news, the stock market is getting creamed again today.
00:34:48.000It was up like 1,000 points yesterday.
00:34:49.000And then it has dumped again, back down 1,000 points, below 24,000 in early morning trading.
00:34:54.000Pretty amazing how the stock market is bouncing around like a yo-yo.
00:34:58.000Now, we're not going to know, honestly, where anything stands until the end of April.
00:35:01.000Megan McArdle has an interesting column over at the Washington Post.
00:35:04.000A lot of people, really, like everyone, is looking around going, I don't see a lot of coronavirus out there.
00:35:09.000We've had a grand total of like 4,000 deaths worldwide.
00:35:12.000If you look at the flu every year, it kills like 100,000 people worldwide minimum, maybe hundreds of thousands of people worldwide every year.
00:35:18.000So why are we all so worried about coronavirus?
00:35:20.000Well, Meghan McArdle has this Statistical thought experiment to remind you that when there's an exponential growth factor, things move really quickly, right?
00:35:28.000You don't see anything, and then you see everything, right?
00:35:31.000Let's say that you have a pond with lily pads.
00:35:32.000This is the example that she gives statistically, and it explains why we're all so worried today.
00:35:36.000If you have a pond with lily pads, and the lily pads are going to overtake the pond as they grow, and each day, the lily pads double, right?
00:35:50.000On the very last day, the lily pads covered the entire pond.
00:35:53.000The question is, at what point did lily pads cover half the pond?
00:35:57.000Right, at what point did lily pads cover half the pond?
00:35:59.000And the answer is, the day before they covered the entire pond, right?
00:36:01.000Because if they're doubling every day, then that means that half the pond was covered yesterday, and today, boom, suddenly the entire pond is covered.
00:36:09.000Okay, that is what people are fearing in terms of coronavirus, is that when you have exponential growth of coronavirus, what you end up with is, no one around me has it, oops, everyone around me has it, right?
00:36:18.000That is what people, are fearing is that suddenness, that sudden uptick.
00:36:22.000And this is what is being feared by the Trump former Homeland Security Advisor, Tom Bossert.
00:36:26.000He says hospitals are basically 10 days away from being creamed.
00:36:30.000He suggested in an op-ed that we are in trouble in terms of our hospital facilities.
00:36:37.000He says officials must pull the trigger on aggressive interventions.
00:36:39.000He said aggressive interventions put off and ease the peak burden on hospitals and other health care infrastructure.
00:36:46.000As coronavirus swells, then the hospitals need to be prepared.
00:36:50.000As I already said, Mayor Bill de Blasio has said that things are happening intensely in New York City, and Governor Jay Inslee has now restricted gatherings of more than 250 people in King County, as well as Snohomish and Pierce Counties, which are the biggest counties in Washington State.
00:37:51.000And what that means is that every attempt to slow the spread of the virus buys a day for people to develop vaccines that are going to be more effective in slowing or stopping the spread of the virus so it becomes just another seasonal problem instead of becoming an overwhelming threat to Western populations.
00:38:07.000So it is in this light that it is important to recognize that when the federal government fails along these lines, it can be absolutely disastrous.
00:38:16.000There's a piece from the New York Times that is just devastating, talking about how the federal government did in fact blow the month that President Trump bought.
00:38:23.000So President Trump said very early on, we are shutting down travel from China.
00:38:26.000And a lot of people on the left are like, oh, this is racist.
00:39:03.000Had the man infected anyone else, according to the New York Times?
00:39:05.000Was the deadly virus already lurking in other communities and spreading?
00:39:08.000As luck would have it, Dr. Chu had a way to monitor the region.
00:39:11.000For months, as part of a research project into the flu, she and a team of researchers had been collecting nasal swabs from residents experiencing symptoms throughout the Puget Sound region.
00:39:20.000To repurpose the test for monitoring coronavirus, they would need the support of state and federal officials.
00:39:24.000But nearly everywhere Dr. Chu turned, officials repeatedly rejected the idea, interviews and emails show, even as weeks crawled by and outbreaks emerged in countries outside of China where the infection began.
00:39:33.000By February 25th, Dr. Chu and her colleagues could not bear to wait any longer.
00:39:37.000They began performing coronavirus tests without government approval.
00:39:40.000What came back confirmed their worst fear.
00:39:41.000They quickly had a positive test from a local teenager with no recent travel history.
00:39:45.000The coronavirus had already established itself on American soil without anybody realizing it.
00:39:50.000Dr. Chu recalled thinking, it must have been here this entire time.
00:39:53.000In fact, officials would later discover through testing the virus had already contributed to the deaths of two people.
00:39:58.000It would go on to kill 20 more in the Seattle region over the following days.
00:40:02.000Federal and state officials said the flu study could not be repurposed because it didn't have explicit permission from research subjects.
00:40:08.000The labs were also not certified for clinical work.
00:40:10.000While acknowledging the ethical questions, Dr. Chu and others argued there should be more flexibility in an emergency during which so many lives could be lost.
00:40:17.000I mean, like, if you give permission for somebody to do a nasal swab for flu, and then that is repurposed to nasal swab for coronavirus, I honestly fail to see how any reasonable person would consider that a violation of privacy.
00:40:29.000Like, oh, nobody must know that I had coronavirus.
00:40:31.000Like, they're not going to release your specific coronavirus test.
00:40:34.000It just allows the state to do something.
00:40:36.000On Monday night, state regulators told them to stop testing altogether.
00:40:40.000The failure to tap into the flu study detailed here for the first time was just one in a series of mischances by the federal government to ensure more widespread testing during the early days of the outbreak when containment would have been easier.
00:40:50.000Instead, local officials across the country were left to work in the dark as the crisis grew undetected and exponentially.
00:40:57.000I don't think Trump is monitoring local level tests.
00:41:00.000I think this is the fault of a massive regulatory bureaucracy that prevents people from doing reasonable things.
00:41:05.000It turns out that the federal government, while it is well placed to issue broad national guidelines, is not well placed to deal with local testing that has to be done.
00:41:15.000It turns out that local communities may be the fastest to react to this sort of thing.
00:41:19.000Voluntary shutdowns right now are happening across the country with regard to major public events.
00:41:24.000And those are happening on the local and state level without the federal government even doing anything.
00:41:28.000It turns out that people who see federalism as the obstacle to this sort of thing, they're doing it wrong.
00:41:32.000Local and state officials are more answerable to local populations and are in fact more likely to request that people do responsible things.
00:41:38.000I mean, the fact is that Purim was yesterday in the Jewish community.
00:41:43.000Basically, every Purim Seudah that I heard of in my area, meaning every big Purim meal with big gatherings, lots of kids, those were basically shut down voluntarily without any guidance from the federal, state, or local officials.
00:41:54.000So the notion that the federal government needs to be running this thing in extraordinarily top-down fashion, the federal government needs to be coordinating all the officials, letting them know sort of the minimum of what they expect, but standing in the way of local officials doing what they need to do to tamp this thing down is a completely different thing, and that is a testament to the stupidity of bureaucracy generally.
00:42:13.000It is just a very, very Light shadow of what happened in China in the very early stages where China was literally imprisoning people talking about this stuff.
00:42:21.000When you have the CDC saying to people, you can't repurpose that flu testing kit in order to test for coronavirus because you may violate federal protocols, just demonstrates the idiocy of having a bureaucracy this large and this ridiculous.
00:42:32.000Doesn't mean we don't need federal staffers, we do.
00:42:34.000But having a bureaucratic thicket like this that is unable, impenetrable, that is a big mistake.
00:42:40.000Dr. Robert Redfield, Director of the CDC said in an interview on Friday that acting quickly was critical for combating an outbreak.
00:42:48.000He said there's still time to beat back coronavirus in the United States.
00:42:50.000He said it's going to take rigorous, aggressive public health, what I like to say, block and tackle, block and tackle.
00:42:55.000It means if you find a new case, you isolate it.
00:42:57.000But the question is how exactly are you going to isolate it when testing kits are not available widely?
00:43:03.000Only about 8,500 specimens or nose swabs have been taken at all since the beginning of the outbreak.
00:43:09.000A figure that is almost certainly larger than the number of people tested since one person can have multiple swabs.
00:43:14.000By comparison, South Korea, which discovered its first test case around the same time as the U.S., has reported having the capacity to test 10,000 people a day since late February.
00:43:23.000That is indeed a failure of the federal government.
00:43:25.000That does not mean, again, that it's Trump's fault.
00:43:27.000It does mean that the response here by the CDC was absolutely insufficient in the early days.
00:43:33.000The agency released criteria for deciding which individuals should be tested for the virus.
00:43:38.000At first, they said only those who had a fever and respiratory issues and had traveled from the outbreak's origin in Wuhan.
00:43:43.000The criteria were so strict that a sick man in Seattle who had visited Wuhan did not even meet it.
00:43:48.000Still, worried state health officials pushed him to get checked, and finally the CDC agreed, and then his results came back positive.
00:43:54.000Around this time, the Washington State Department of Health began discussions with the Seattle Flu Study.
00:43:59.000The flu project primarily used research labs, not clinical ones.
00:44:02.000Its coronavirus test was not approved by the FDA.
00:44:04.000So the group was not certified to provide test results to anyone outside their own investigators.
00:44:09.000Scott McDowell, a former CDC official, current deputy director at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, asked for help from leaders of the CDC's coronavirus response.
00:44:16.000Later, Dr. Lindquist, the state epidemiologist in Washington, wrote an email to Dr. Alicia Fry, the chief of the CDC's Epidemiology and Prevention Branch, requesting the study be used to test for coronavirus.
00:44:53.000You need more effective federal intervention, and also, if you are talking about layers upon layers of bureaucracy making things better, wrongo.
00:45:18.000The nursing home industry is basically advised, if you have a parent in a nursing home, do not go visit them right now.
00:45:23.000Not because they're going to infect you, but because you might unknowingly infect them, and then it'll run like wildfire throughout the entire nursing home.
00:45:28.000That's what happened in Kirkland, Washington.
00:45:31.000It's also impacting small clusters of younger, more healthy people.
00:45:38.000There was a man named Mark Tebalt, who was one of the first Americans diagnosed with the novel coronavirus.
00:45:42.000And apparently, he ended up in the ICU at Providence Hospital, fighting the illness that attacked his lungs.
00:45:48.000He says, I was one inch from death, no doubt about it.
00:45:50.000Roughly 80% of COVID-19 cases tend to be mild to moderate.
00:45:53.000More than 62,000 people globally have recovered.
00:45:56.000Older people, those with underlying health conditions, are at a higher risk.
00:46:15.000Also, the attempts to push bailouts at this point.
00:46:19.000The kind of bailouts that are being talked about.
00:46:20.000The federal government has never seen an opportunity for a bailout it didn't take, but the bailouts they're talking about are largely going to be ineffective.
00:46:26.000Right now, we are in a watch and wait time when everybody needs to exercise caution.
00:47:31.000Asimov's foundation novels really sort of change the sci-fi world.
00:47:36.000They do illustrate the difference between sci-fi and fantasy.
00:47:38.000The basic difference between sci-fi and fantasy, actually Asimov, there's a really kind of cool short story filled little sci-fi magazine that comes out every couple of months with major writers writing for it.
00:47:50.000And there's an essay at the beginning of last month's Asimov magazine talking about the difference between sci-fi and fantasy, because sometimes it's hard to tell the difference.
00:47:56.000And the basic difference is that there are predictable rules in the sci-fi world that are not broken by Deus Ex Machina.
00:48:02.000Well, that is Asimov's universes, right?
00:48:05.000Asimov's universes are filled with these sort of predictable rules.
00:48:07.000You establish the rules, and then you live by the rules.
00:48:22.000Isaac Asimov's The Foundation novels, and you start with Foundation, then you move on to Second Foundation, there's Foundation and Empire, and there are a bunch of them, but the first three, particularly, Are pretty good.
00:49:25.000They ceded far too much ground to AOC.
00:49:27.000So yeah, she looks pragmatic in the sense that she is not running screaming away from the Democratic Party.
00:49:31.000The problem for the Democrats is they should be running screaming away from AOC.
00:49:34.000Here's Axelrod labeling her pragmatic, which really is to suggest the Democratic Party is itself not pragmatic.
00:49:39.000Let me suggest that I think that one person who may be important in this process is AOC.
00:49:48.000She has emerged as a really important figure among these young Americans who are yearning for real serious solutions to these problems and yet she's shown herself to be a very pragmatic yet principled figure.
00:50:06.000The minute that she actually comes to grips with Joe Biden, the minute she starts campaigning for Joe Biden, if Bernie sits this one out, then she becomes the outlier.
00:50:14.000Bernie is still the leader of this movement, not AOC.
00:50:16.000AOC may drive crowds, but she does not have a coherent constituency in the same way that Bernie Sanders does.
00:50:22.000AOC last night, she got on that Instagram and she was lamenting about it.
00:50:25.000She said, there's no sugarcoating it, it's a tough night.
00:50:28.000And then she suggested, she congratulated Biden on his win.
00:50:31.000She said, if you win a race, you win a race, which is a lot more conciliatory than Sanders is going to be, obviously.
00:50:37.000She said, older voters, which we know are more reliable voters, which we know turn out, have decisively gone to Vice President Biden.
00:50:43.000She said, there's a generational divide within the Democratic Party on healthcare, on climate change, on foreign policy, pretty much every policy imaginable.
00:50:49.000As a younger person in this movement, I take a lot of that information for how we navigate the next decade.
00:50:54.000So she's basically saying, okay guys, hold off.
00:51:14.000For example, here was AOC last night talking about how it was racist because people were not eating as much at Chinese restaurants.
00:51:20.000Again, I've not seen the evidence that people are not going to Chinese restaurants.
00:51:23.000But AOC suggests that there's widespread anti-Asian racism breaking out all over the United States.
00:51:28.000This is your pragmatic Democratic politician, AOC.
00:51:31.000Honestly, it sounds almost so silly to say, but there's a lot of restaurants that are feeling the pain of racism, where people are literally not patroning Chinese restaurants.
00:51:44.000They're not patroning Asian restaurants because of just straight-up racism around the coronavirus.
00:52:19.000There are a lot of hard surfaces at restaurants.
00:52:21.000There was an entire article in the New York Times yesterday about what you should do during the coronavirus outbreak with regard to going to restaurants.
00:52:26.000One of their answers, if you want to order, order out.
00:52:29.000Because if you're actually at a restaurant, then you are presumably sitting at a table.
00:52:33.000The hard surface has been patronized by other people who have been putting their hands all over that.
00:52:38.000If you have to go sign, then use a pen, use your finger, and then immediately use hand sanitizer because lots of hands all over lots of things at a restaurant.
00:52:47.000Okay, so this is not about people being like, oh, the Chinese restaurant, probably somebody has Wuhan virus there.
00:52:52.000That's not, like, this entire overblown idea that people are super racist about it, that we are in the midst of a second Japanese internment in the United States, none of that is true.
00:55:10.000Hey everybody, it's Andrew Klavan, host of The Andrew Klavan Show.
00:55:13.000You know, some people are depressed because the American Republic is collapsing, the end of days is approaching, and the moon has turned to blood.
00:55:20.000But on The Andrew Klavan Show, that's where the fun just gets started.