The Ben Shapiro Show - Stock Market PLUNGES…So What’s Next?!

00:00:00.000 Well, folks, a lot to get to today on the show.

00:00:02.000 Everything from the stock market dump of yesterday and the state of the economy to the White House deciding to deport a Hamas sympathizer from the United States green card holder.

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00:00:41.000 So yesterday, obviously, we saw a massive stock market dump.

00:00:44.000 The stock market Dow Jones Industrial Average dumped almost 900 points.

00:00:49.000 The stock market has been in a bit of a free fall over the course of the last couple of weeks.

00:00:54.000 And this is something that I've been predicting for a while.

00:00:56.000 It turns out that when you mess with the market mechanisms, people don't like it.

00:01:00.000 Investors tend to take their money out of the market and wait for things to be a little calmer, a little more steady.

00:01:05.000 If you think of the free markets as essentially an ocean, sometimes it's pretty choppy out there.

00:01:10.000 Right now, it's choppy.

00:01:11.000 And here's the thing.

00:01:12.000 If this administration is blamed for the choppy waters, that is quite bad, not just for this administration, but for everything that in the public mind it represents.

00:01:21.000 According to the Wall Street Journal.

00:01:22.000 A new round of recession fears rattled markets on Monday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down nearly 900 points, eroding Wall Street consensus that U.S. stocks would be among this year's biggest winners.

00:01:31.000 By the way, this is having an impact on President Trump's approval ratings.

00:01:34.000 There's a new pullout from Emerson today that shows President Trump is underwater on the economy by 11 points.

00:01:39.000 He's still at 47.45 in his overall approval rating.

00:01:42.000 That is largely due to the widespread and correct perception that in immigration he has totally changed the ballgame. 0.65

00:01:47.000 We're experiencing the lowest levels of illegal immigration ever recorded in the United States, as far as I'm aware.

00:01:53.000 But when it comes to the economy, which is the thing that most people vote based upon, make their political decisions based upon, if President Trump is blamed for an economic downturn, the effects of that could be disastrous, not just obviously for the Trump administration, but for many of the things that are important for the United States, including free markets more but for many of the things that are important for the According to the Wall Street Journal, worries about a trade war situation.

00:02:14.000 Signs of flagging growth splinters in the artificial intelligence trade have taken some of the shine off prior optimism.

00:02:20.000 President Trump over the weekend refused to rule out a recession this year.

00:02:23.000 The S&P 500 fell 2.7%.

00:02:25.000 NASDAQ lost 4%.

00:02:27.000 Bank stocks slid along with shares of smaller companies perceived to be sensitive to the economy.

00:02:31.000 Bonds rallied.

00:02:32.000 That's where money tends to go when people are uncertain what to do.

00:02:35.000 They start buying bonds because at least they feel like they're going to get paid off at a certain point.

00:02:40.000 While the U.S.'s strength is in question, other countries are ramping up efforts to revive their own economies.

00:02:44.000 China is unleashing more stimulus to meet its economic growth target.

00:02:47.000 Germany has announced a spending splurge on its military and infrastructure.

00:02:51.000 Now, again, all of that is fake, meaning that if you just borrow to spend, which is what the United States has been doing for a very long time, you end up with an artificially inflated economy.

00:03:00.000 This has happened in the United States.

00:03:02.000 It's way more true for Germany and China, actually, than it is of the United States.

00:03:07.000 However, there is something else happening and it's deeper, and that is a widespread perception that the Trump team is trying to reshape the global order in a way that will not be good for the American economy or the global economy.

00:03:20.000 It is a widespread perception that is beginning to sort of percolate into the markets.

00:03:25.000 And again, I'm talking to many of the market makers, I'm talking to business people who have literally hundreds of millions of dollars invested in the markets, and they are all very, very wary.

00:03:35.000 of the sort of signals that are being put out.

00:03:37.000 And signals matter an awful lot when it comes to the economy these days.

00:03:41.000 Because as I've spoken about before, if you're even a small business person, what do you want to make sure that you're going to invest in your business?

00:03:47.000 You want a growing economy.

00:03:49.000 You want to make sure that the government isn't going to come and take your money.

00:03:52.000 The government isn't going to come in and over-regulate you.

00:03:54.000 And the conditions tomorrow are going to be very similar to the conditions you have today.

00:03:58.000 That's how you make predictive decision-making.

00:04:00.000 It's how you decide whether to hire that extra employee.

00:04:02.000 It's how you decide whether to invest in more capital.

00:04:05.000 Equipment is how you decide whether to expand your holdings in particular areas or contract your holdings in particular areas.

00:04:11.000 Predictability matters.

00:04:12.000 Now, President Trump is not a predictable president.

00:04:14.000 He has never been a predictable president, but the one area that he was always quite predictable on was economics.

00:04:20.000 President Trump liked tariffs, but you know what he liked more?

00:04:22.000 He liked results.

00:04:23.000 And so what that meant is that during the first administration, when he talked tariffs a lot, the total amount of tariffs, effectually, that were put on the American economy ended up totaling something like $30 billion total.

00:04:33.000 It was not huge.

00:04:35.000 And much of it was designed to leverage places like Mexico into signing a new version of the USMCA. I think one of the reasons that people in the markets are particularly perturbed by Trump's attacks on Canada in the markets is that it's one thing to say we're going after Mexico to get them to close the border.

00:04:49.000 That that's a piece of leverage.

00:04:51.000 All right, fine.

00:04:52.000 It's another thing to say, okay, we're going to put tariffs on China because China is stealing our intellectual property and building up their military at incredibly rapid rates.

00:05:00.000 Totally agree.

00:05:01.000 Fine.

00:05:02.000 Canada?

00:05:03.000 What did Canada do? 0.96

00:05:04.000 Exactly.

00:05:05.000 And the very notion that Canada is not a major trading partner with the United States is untrue.

00:05:10.000 Canada is our number one trading partner.

00:05:12.000 Canada, again, has extraordinarily low average tariff rates with the United States under a deal negotiated during President Trump's first term, the USMCA. So the aim at Canada appears to the global markets to be a move away from America's involvement in the world in total.

00:05:28.000 As I've spoken about before, that doesn't mean we need to be involved everywhere, either militarily or economically.

00:05:32.000 However, The reality that America is the global hegemon is one of the reasons that the American economy continues to be the behemoth that it is.

00:05:41.000 When you withdraw from what is a de facto financial empire, when you withdraw from providing global security and freedom of the seas, when it appears that what you're attempting to do is draw inward, the rest of the world has less interest in investing in you, buying your debt, for example, funding your giant government expenditures.

00:05:59.000 The rest of the world is less interested.

00:06:01.000 In doing business with you, if it's harder to do business with you, and this has a very, very bad effect on the economy, not just outside the United States, but inside the United States.

00:06:10.000 It turns out that autarky, the notion that we should produce and consume everything in the United States, that's a romantic idea.

00:06:15.000 Everywhere it has been tried, literally everywhere it has been tried over the course of the last few centuries, it has ended with impoverishment of the population, followed generally by expansionism.

00:06:25.000 That is true in Germany.

00:06:27.000 It is true in China. 0.99

00:06:28.000 It is true pretty much ever.

00:06:29.000 It is true in Russia. 0.83

00:06:30.000 It's true pretty much everywhere it's been tried.

00:06:33.000 And so if the markets think that's what you're doing, even if you're not doing it, that's not going to be good for the markets.

00:06:40.000 As Reuters is reporting, President Trump's tariffs have spooked investors with fears of an economic downturn driving a stock market sell-off that has wiped out $4 trillion from the S&P 500's peak last month when Wall Street was cheering much of the Trump agenda.

00:06:51.000 A barrage of new Trump policies increased uncertainty for businesses, consumers, and investors, notably back-and-forth tariff moves against major trading partners like Canada, Mexico, and China.

00:07:00.000 Now, President Trump, for his part, he's saying, listen, short-term pain for long-term gain.

00:07:07.000 Here's what President Trump had to say with Maria Bartiromo.

00:07:11.000 You said, look, we're going to have a disruption, but we're okay with that.

00:07:15.000 Is that what you meant?

00:07:16.000 The stock market going down was the disruption?

00:07:18.000 What other disruption were you alluding to?

00:07:20.000 Look, what I have to do is build a strong country.

00:07:23.000 You can't really watch the stock market.

00:07:26.000 If you look at China, they have a hundred year perspective.

00:07:28.000 We have a quarter.

00:07:30.000 We go by quarters.

00:07:31.000 That's true.

00:07:32.000 And you can't go by that.

00:07:33.000 You have to do what's right.

00:07:35.000 What we're doing is we're building a tremendous foundation for the future.

00:07:38.000 Tremendous foundation.

00:07:41.000 Okay.

00:07:42.000 You need to explain, if that's the case, what is the tremendous foundation that is going to lead to future growth and how do we get from point A to point B in a way that doesn't blow up everybody's 401k?

00:07:52.000 It turns out, by the way, more than half of Americans are heavily invested in the stock market through things like their 401k.

00:07:57.000 So this is not just a quote-unquote rich people problem.

00:07:59.000 This is an everybody problem.

00:08:01.000 And the sort of side effects of market downturns affect everyone from Main Street to Wall Street.

00:08:10.000 As the Wall Street Journal points out, There's some red lights that are already flashing.

00:08:14.000 Take Friday's jobs report, which showed employers added 151,000 jobs last month.

00:08:18.000 That's half as many as in November and December.

00:08:20.000 Leisure and hospitality jobs have been declining in the past two months, which may indicate consumers are pulling back on their discretionary spending.

00:08:26.000 The labor force participation rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 2.4%, owing to a decline among men.

00:08:34.000 Manufacturing did gain 10,000 jobs in the month, but the number of workers employed part-time who wanted...

00:08:38.000 But couldn't get full-time work increased by 460,000 to 4.9 million, which is the most in spring of 2021. Service businesses are being whipsawed.

00:08:47.000 Transportation equipment manufacturers are being whipsawed.

00:08:50.000 Whipsawed just means one day they think that there's going to be a tariff, one day they don't know that there's going to be a tariff.

00:08:54.000 And so everybody's looking for what's the overall vision here?

00:08:56.000 What is the overall vision?

00:08:58.000 Is this President Trump using tariffs as leverage?

00:09:00.000 We don't know.

00:09:01.000 Is this President Trump using tariffs as a way to force everybody else to lower their tariffs?

00:09:06.000 We don't know.

00:09:07.000 We've heard that justification too.

00:09:08.000 Or is it just that President Trump sees a vision of the United States with higher tariffs and a reshoring of manufacturing that is good for particular industries but very bad for the American consumer by raising prices overall and also disconnecting the American economy from other parts of the globe that actually, by the way, again, do subsidize the American economy?

00:09:28.000 I understand that there is this notion that trade deficits where we buy more stuff from people than they buy from us.

00:09:36.000 The reality is that if we spend more money abroad than people spend here, those dollars come back.

00:09:51.000 How do they come back?

00:09:52.000 Well, very often they come back in the form of governments either holding our dollars as the global reserve currency or in the form of other governments buying American bonds, which funds are growing national debt.

00:10:04.000 Which is out of control.

00:10:05.000 And I love what Doge is doing.

00:10:07.000 We need to bend the cost curve.

00:10:09.000 The reality is, as I've said over and over, and I'll continue to say, we are not solving our national debt problem unless we take a look at the very things no one on either side wants to take a look at.

00:10:19.000 Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, means-tested welfare programs.

00:10:23.000 Those are the massive drivers of the American national debt.

00:10:26.000 Elon Musk understands this, but trimming around the edges isn't going to do it.

00:10:30.000 Obviously, it's a very Dicey time for investors, and smart investors need to prepare ahead of time, just like keeping a life jacket handy before you set sail.

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00:12:40.000 Here is Elon Musk correctly citing one of the key phenomena that demonstrates the sort of underlying weakness of the American economic plan based on our spending.

00:12:51.000 He says our interest payments are now outstripping what we pay for defense.

00:12:58.000 Our defense department budget.

00:13:00.000 That's, I think, was the real wake-up call for me, was looking at seeing that the interest payments, the national debt, exceeded the defense department budget.

00:13:10.000 And that was only growing over time, which meant if we didn't do something about this, then there won't be any money for anything.

00:13:18.000 We'll just be servicing debt.

00:13:20.000 And you know how to read an income statement.

00:13:22.000 And you know how to read a balance sheet.

00:13:24.000 You've had some business experience.

00:13:26.000 I'm kidding, but you know about this stuff.

00:13:30.000 Yeah, I mean, really, I just don't want America to go bankrupt.

00:13:34.000 Okay, that is correct.

00:13:37.000 But Doge is not going to be capable of single-handedly doing all of that.

00:13:40.000 And many of the moves that we are currently making, it's about to make it very difficult to raise more debt.

00:13:47.000 And all of this is tied to what is the actual sort of overall Trump plan.

00:13:51.000 And it takes a little while for the Trump doctrine to sort of take shape.

00:13:54.000 Again, I have my idea of what the Trump doctrine is.

00:13:56.000 That's very different from, say, Tucker Carlson's idea of what the Trump doctrine is.

00:13:59.000 And President Trump doesn't really have a Trump doctrine.

00:14:01.000 President Trump just has a series of what I think are very good political instincts and a fundamentally good set of principles.

00:14:07.000 But that doesn't necessarily translate into something overall.

00:14:09.000 But the way the markets are increasingly reading what President Trump is doing globally is that President Trump wants to reassure everything and he wants to withdraw from the world.

00:14:17.000 And that is not going to have beneficial effects for the American consumer, the American producer, the American economy at large.

00:14:25.000 And here I want to talk about the sort of problems that are going to arise from this vision.

00:14:33.000 So there's a really good analyst.

00:14:35.000 His name is Balaji Srinivasan, who's an American entrepreneur and investor and a former general partner at Andreessen Horowitz.

00:14:42.000 And he has a good tweet thread today explaining why it is that the world is perceiving some of the moves that the Trump administration is making.

00:14:50.000 As indicative of a broader worldview problem that could undermine sort of American strength.

00:14:55.000 He says, here are four things MAGA is getting wrong and why it's handing over the world to China.

00:14:59.000 One, MAGA correctly understands that America's economic position is in decline, but think this is due to economic competition itself rather than lack of competitiveness.

00:15:07.000 It's a big thing.

00:15:08.000 He's right about this.

00:15:09.000 The reason that America has been in relative decline versus China is not because the competitive global markets are bad.

00:15:16.000 It's because America is not competitive in the American global markets.

00:15:20.000 And Trump understands this, by the way.

00:15:22.000 It's just sort of the other half of what he's doing with tariffs.

00:15:24.000 Meaning, when he focuses on tax policy and regulatory policy, that makes America more competitive vis-a-vis other countries.

00:15:31.000 Getting rid of competition entirely via tariffs, via cutting off world trade, via abandoning parts of the world, is not likely to result in American victory.

00:15:39.000 It results in American impoverishment.

00:15:41.000 Second, he says, MAGA understands that the U.S. has wasted trillions of brought in foreign wars, but thinks the problem is global leadership itself rather than poor leadership.

00:15:48.000 Again, this is a really important point.

00:15:50.000 Obviously, the United States has involved itself, particularly in Iraq or Afghanistan, in wars that were either unwinnable or had such bad strategies attached to them that they became unwinnable.

00:15:59.000 That does not mean that abandoning the globe to the predations of the Chinese, Russians, and Iranians is going to be beneficial to America.

00:16:07.000 That that is going to increase America's health in the world, economically or otherwise.

00:16:13.000 We need to be concerted about how we use force and how we threaten to use force.

00:16:17.000 But a world without America is a worse world, including for Americans.

00:16:21.000 Third, MAGA knows their blue American enemies have allies abroad, but has incorrectly overreacted to this by treating every non-red American as an enemy.

00:16:28.000 Okay, this is, I think, the point about Canada.

00:16:32.000 Yes, it turns out that blue America took over the institutions of the United States. 0.96

00:16:36.000 The left took over the major institutions, including things like USAID. And then they fostered abroad alliances with a bunch of people who actually don't like America very much.

00:16:46.000 That does not mean that the United States does not have allies abroad who are worth cultivating and attacking places like Canada, for example.

00:16:54.000 By the way, the attacks on Canada are likely to elevate blue American types to power in Canada. 0.96

00:16:59.000 The person who just replaced Justin Trudeau as head of the Liberal Party is a Davos boy.

00:17:03.000 He's a World Economic Forum guy, and he is now riding high in the polls thanks to this tariff war that we're having with Canada.

00:17:11.000 Says Balaji, MAGA sees the billions of dollars flowing from the United States to foreign recipients, but isn't grasping that the U.S. can only print those dollars in the first place so long as it's the hub of a global empire.

00:17:20.000 This is the point that I was making last week about the dollar as the world's reserve currency.

00:17:24.000 Is that, yes, we fund a lot of places, and a lot of places fund our debt.

00:17:28.000 That is just the reality.

00:17:30.000 He says, basically, MAGA is hyper-focused on cutting off any apparent flow of funds from red Americans to blue Americans and non-Americans.

00:17:36.000 They're trying to quickly shut off imports, close down institutions, and exit all wars. 0.79

00:17:40.000 Except the reason imports exist in the first place is because the United States products are not competitive relative to other products or Fed printing.

00:17:47.000 The reason those institutions exist is because the United States set them up to run the world.

00:17:51.000 The reason those wars are happening is not because of American leadership per se, but because of the absence of good leadership by America.

00:17:58.000 If you shut all that down at once, you shut down American empire and with it the ability to print money, fund your debt, or anything like that.

00:18:04.000 This is a correct analysis.

00:18:06.000 And if the world perceives that as the program, it is not going to be...

00:18:12.000 This is not America needs to be the world's global police person involved in every single place.

00:18:16.000 This is not America needs to trade with everybody at the same rate.

00:18:19.000 This is if there is a generalized perception in the markets and across the world that America is withdrawing.

00:18:25.000 That is not going to be beneficial for the United States because an American-led world order is better than a non-American-led world order. 0.87

00:18:34.000 Beyond that, there are going to be some...

00:18:36.000 Real downsides here in the United States.

00:18:38.000 We need President Trump to succeed, particularly economically.

00:18:41.000 We need him to succeed, particularly economically.

00:18:45.000 This picture, I think, is going to be the story of the next four years, one way or another.

00:18:48.000 This is a picture from the inauguration.

00:18:50.000 You'll remember it, because it was obviously a pretty famous picture.

00:18:53.000 This is a picture of all of the tech bros arriving at the inauguration.

00:18:58.000 And you can see, it's Elon Musk.

00:19:00.000 It's Senator Pichai, who's the head of Alphabet.

00:19:04.000 It's Jeff Bezos, the head of Amazon.

00:19:06.000 It's Mark Zuckerberg, the head of Facebook.

00:19:08.000 Meta.

00:19:09.000 They were all there at the inauguration.

00:19:12.000 They were flanking President Trump.

00:19:13.000 And it was sort of an amazing moment because you had all these business leaders, many of whom were not, in fact, allied with President Trump over the course of his career here, who were at the inauguration.

00:19:22.000 Now, the only downside to that is that if the economy sinks, what do you think is going to take the blame?

00:19:29.000 What President Trump is doing right now with tariffs, that is not free market oriented.

00:19:33.000 Tariffs are not free market oriented.

00:19:34.000 They're a government control on imports and exports.

00:19:37.000 That's what they are.

00:19:38.000 They're effectively a tax on consumers.

00:19:41.000 If the economy dips, if the economy dips, the American people are going to perceive that business itself is to blame for what happens next.

00:19:51.000 Regardless of the fact that many of the measures that are currently being taken by the sort of nationalist conservatives in terms of economics, measures like subsidies, New regulations in certain areas, tariffs, which are a form of regulation, that all of these sorts of battles really are not oriented toward free markets.

00:20:10.000 They are more of a Bernie Sanders economic program in some ways than they are in a sort of traditional libertarian free market program.

00:20:17.000 The perception of President Trump correctly is that he is a businessman and that he is capitalism oriented.

00:20:22.000 If the economy sinks while he is president in a serious way where Americans turn against him, and again, he's underwater on the economy right now.

00:20:30.000 If that happens, it is not just going to damage Trump, which would be terrible, and damage the Trump administration and the Republican future, which would be terrible.

00:20:37.000 It is going to be used as a club against all of business, all of it.

00:20:42.000 There will be a blowback against business, capitalism, and free markets, despite the fact that it wasn't business capitalism and free markets that brought us to this point.

00:20:50.000 It was overweening government spending and a bunch of pseudo-corrective measures that are attempting to be taken by the Trump administration in the form of autarkic reshoring.

00:21:02.000 The sort of popular response is something that I've learned over the course of watching politics at a granular level for almost a quarter of a century.

00:21:09.000 I've been doing this since I was 17. I'm currently 41. One of the things that I've noticed, and this is true for everybody in every industry, when you're in an industry and you know the ins and outs of a thing, when you know the details of the thing, you think everybody else knows the details of the thing.

00:21:23.000 You think everybody else follows the ins and outs.

00:21:25.000 That's not true.

00:21:27.000 And let's say that you are Leonardo da Vinci and you're painting the Mona Lisa.

00:21:30.000 You know where every single brushstroke went.

00:21:32.000 You know the amount of effort it took in.

00:21:34.000 What did people take away from the Mona Lisa for most people?

00:21:37.000 They walk into Louvre.

00:21:38.000 They look at the Mona Lisa.

00:21:39.000 They see it's a lady with no eyebrows. 0.94

00:21:40.000 They kind of shrug and they walk away.

00:21:43.000 That is most people.

00:21:44.000 And the same thing is true in every industry.

00:21:46.000 If you're an accountant, you know the ins and the outs of the tax laws.

00:21:49.000 And so you figure maybe everybody else kind of has a general idea.

00:21:52.000 The answer is no.

00:21:52.000 They just know whether they're paying more or whether they're paying less.

00:21:55.000 And when it comes to politics, I may know, or you as a listener to shows like this one, may know the ins and outs of global geopolitics and economics.

00:22:03.000 You may follow this stuff at a closer level than 99% of the rest of America.

00:22:08.000 Most people only see line go up, line go down.

00:22:11.000 And if line goes down while President Trump is president, the blowback is going to be not just against tariff policy.

00:22:17.000 It's going to be against business.

00:22:18.000 It's going to be against capitalism.

00:22:21.000 It's going to be against Elon Musk and Pichai and Zuckerberg and Trump.

00:22:26.000 And everyone associated.

00:22:29.000 The American public does not see issues in terms of nuance.

00:22:32.000 The American public sees good or bad.

00:22:35.000 If the economy goes down, then what you're likely to see is an upsurge in left-wing populist sentiment against free market capitalism.

00:22:44.000 You're likely to see the sort of Bill Burr perspective on economics, which is totally ignorant and, by the way, utterly hypocritical given the fact that he's a millionaire himself who makes money saying used to be funny things on TV. Here, for example, is Bill Burr going after Elon Musk.

00:22:59.000 You're going to leave the country because of one guy with dyed hair plugs and a laminated face who makes a bad car and has an obsolete social media platform?

00:23:13.000 You're going to leave this?

00:23:15.000 Why doesn't he leave?

00:23:16.000 Why hasn't he stopped?

00:23:18.000 What are we so afraid of this guy who can't fight his way out of a wet paper bag?

00:23:23.000 You can take them on?

00:23:25.000 Like, why do liberals just sit back and they have nothing?

00:23:31.000 What are you doing?

00:23:34.000 This.

00:23:35.000 Okay.

00:23:36.000 This.

00:23:37.000 You gotta speak up about it.

00:23:39.000 You don't just go like, oh my god, what?

00:23:41.000 Like, listen, first of all, it's like, I'm a stand-up comedian.

00:23:45.000 It's not my friggin' job.

00:23:46.000 I'm talking about, like, democratic politicians.

00:23:49.000 Where is their pushback?

00:23:51.000 They're allegedly liberal.

00:23:52.000 You see this guy do this thing, you know what the end result of this thing is.

00:23:57.000 Which all these neo-Nazis, not only are they stupid because they're neo-Nazis, they don't even look at what Hitler did.

00:24:03.000 He ruined their country.

00:24:04.000 And this idiot is going to try to lead us down that road?

00:24:07.000 And then play it off and act like he didn't do what he just did?

00:24:12.000 And you can get cancelled as a comedian for doing a friggin' Caitlyn Jenner joke, but this...

00:24:18.000 Where are all the liberals?

00:24:20.000 Where are all of these white chicks at the award shows that were speaking truth to power? 1.00

00:24:26.000 Where are they?

00:24:27.000 Why did they choose to go after comedians and not the Ku Klux Klan?

00:24:31.000 How come they never got canceled?

00:24:33.000 Okay.

00:24:34.000 Now, again, this sort of attack on Musk, this sort of neo-Nazi, he raised his arm, stuff is nonsense.

00:24:39.000 But the populist, anti-capitalist, anti-free market, anti-business attitude is going to be extremely common if the economy...

00:24:46.000 Sinks. 0.91

00:24:47.000 That's going to be a real, real problem.

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00:25:58.000 Also, what does the future hold for business?

00:26:01.000 If you ask nine experts, you will get 10 answers.

00:26:03.000 Bull market, bear market, inflation, up, down.

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00:27:01.000 The guide is free to you at netsuite.com.

00:27:05.000 Now, one of the theories here is that one of the things President Trump is trying to do, actually, is devalue the American dollar so as to boost our exports for purposes of fixing the trade deficit.

00:27:17.000 So, I went to our friends over at Perplexity, and I asked a simple question.

00:27:22.000 And Perplexity does a good job of explaining this sort of stuff.

00:27:24.000 What are the effects on the ability of the United States to sell our debt if the value of the dollar drops?

00:27:29.000 Because this is sort of the...

00:27:30.000 Biggest single question.

00:27:31.000 You heard Elon earlier talking about the fact that we pay more interest in our debt than we are currently paying on the defense budget.

00:27:37.000 So what happens?

00:27:39.000 Can we raise new debt if the dollar is devalued?

00:27:43.000 And here is perplexity's excellent answer.

00:27:46.000 Negative effect.

00:27:47.000 Reduced foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries.

00:27:49.000 A weaker dollar may lower the appeal of dollar-denominated assets, including U.S. Treasuries for foreign investors.

00:27:53.000 If the dollar depreciates, foreign holders of U.S. debt could face losses when converting interest payments or principal back into their own currencies.

00:28:00.000 This could lead to reduced investment in U.S. debt markets.

00:28:03.000 Two, higher interest rates.

00:28:05.000 To attract buyers for its debt amid declining demand, U.S. government may need to offer higher yields on treasuries, increasing borrowing costs.

00:28:11.000 Rising interest rates can also exacerbate concerns about debt sustainability and put upward pressure on real yields.

00:28:16.000 Three, loss of confidence.

00:28:17.000 A sustained drop in the dollar's value could signal broader economic instability, potentially triggering a loss of confidence among investors in U.S. financial assets.

00:28:25.000 This could result in a sell-off of U.S. Treasuries and further depreciation of the currency.

00:28:28.000 In other words, everybody else who's holding our debt thinks that the new debt actually is going to be less valuable than the old debt, and they start selling it off.

00:28:36.000 Four, inflationary pressures.

00:28:38.000 A weaker dollar increases the cost of imported goods and services, potentially fueling inflation.

00:28:42.000 Now, what President Trump could be focusing on, theoretically, is the positive effects of a weaker dollar.

00:28:53.000 President Trump talks about how he wants the Federal Reserve to lower the interest rates and inject money into the economy.

00:28:58.000 Increased competitiveness.

00:28:59.000 A weaker dollar makes U.S. exports cheaper and more competitive internationally, which could boost economic growth and improve trade balances over time.

00:29:07.000 However, the reality of a weaker dollar is that America can be competitive without doing that.

00:29:14.000 You don't need to upend America's ability to raise debt by increasing tariffs, by lowering...

00:29:21.000 The value of the dollar.

00:29:22.000 Those are not things that are necessary right now.

00:29:24.000 We're already in an inflationary spiral.

00:29:25.000 We don't need more inflation on top of all of this.

00:29:28.000 And as Perplexity points out, the major long-term effect would be things like de-dollarization.

00:29:34.000 So again, something I was mentioning last week, the entire American economy is reliant on other people buying our debt on a continuous basis to fund our government spending.

00:29:43.000 Countries might diversify away from dollar-denominated assets, reducing their reliance on U.S. Treasuries as reserve holdings.

00:29:49.000 And concerns about sanctions or asset freezes might further reduce foreign official demand for U.S. debt.

00:29:55.000 I totally agree with Perplexity's conclusion here, that while a weaker dollar could stimulate certain aspects of the economy, it poses risks to the U.S.'s ability to sell its debt efficiently by increasing borrowing costs, undermining investor confidence in Treasury securities.

00:30:06.000 That is correct.

00:30:07.000 Thanks to our friends at Perplexity for sponsoring that search.

00:30:10.000 Well, again, in the search for some sort of sobriety and stability in the economic space, The Congress right now is looking to push forward a continuing resolution.

00:30:18.000 We spoke with Representative Chip Roy, again, a very strong fiscal conservative in Congress, yesterday on the program.

00:30:24.000 Speaker Johnson is now eyeing a House vote today on a six-month funding extension that was crafted on a partisan basis.

00:30:30.000 He's going to rely on only Republican votes to pass it in the House and dare Democrats to try to oppose it.

00:30:35.000 It looks as though there's a strong shot that it is going to pass.

00:30:39.000 The shutdown countdown is down to three days because the shutdown happens on Friday.

00:30:44.000 Many, again, of the more conservative members of the caucus are on board.

00:30:47.000 There's one who is obviously not going to be, and that, of course, is Thomas Massey, whose reliable no vote on everything.

00:30:53.000 Like, on everything.

00:30:55.000 He's essentially Ron Paul, but from Kentucky.

00:30:57.000 Same voting record, same general worldview, all of it.

00:31:01.000 Well, this prompted President Trump to go after Massey, correctly noting that Massey basically has no interest in governing almost ever.

00:31:11.000 And in a situation like this, what you actually need is Republicans who are willing to govern.

00:31:14.000 Again, the job of being a congressperson is not the same as the job of being a podcast host or the job of being a CNN commentator or something.

00:31:21.000 It is literally your job to try and go for 80% of the pie.

00:31:25.000 This is why, again, I think that Chip Roy does a good job of this.

00:31:28.000 Chip actually tries to push the ball as far as it will go while recognizing that the ball eventually is going to have to be kicked.

00:31:35.000 Something's going to have to happen.

00:31:37.000 He will push the line as far as he can without...

00:31:40.000 Falling into the trap of just saying no to everything.

00:31:43.000 President Trump put out a statement yesterday saying that he will lead the charge to oust Thomas Massey for his refusal to support the government funding bill.

00:31:51.000 He put out a truth social post.

00:31:54.000 He said Congressman Thomas Massey of beautiful Kentucky is an automatic no vote on just about everything.

00:32:00.000 He said Massey should be primaried and I will lead the charge against him.

00:32:05.000 Now Trump had also prior times tried to unsuccessfully oust Massey.

00:32:10.000 Massey responded by saying, I've had a challenger who tried to be more MAGA than me three times.

00:32:14.000 None busted 25% because my constituents prefer transparency and principles over blind allegiance.

00:32:19.000 Again, totally fair for Massey there.

00:32:21.000 However, it is a reality that Massey's reliable no vote on everything that would be sort of effective for Republicans to do.

00:32:29.000 And even though I agree with Massey, actually more than many other Republicans, on his generalized spending proposals, is Trump wrong to target Massey about all of this?

00:32:39.000 The continuing resolution fails and we get to Friday and the government shuts down.

00:32:43.000 The downside effects are going to be very, very strong for the Republicans, including Republicans in Congress.

00:32:49.000 And it's easy for Massey to say since he's not in a purple district.

00:32:52.000 He's not somebody who's going to battle his way back to the Congress.

00:32:55.000 His district is like a plus 20 Republican district.

00:32:59.000 So all of this, you would think, might provide an opening to Democrats, right?

00:33:02.000 This would be the moment where Democrats start to make their economic pitch.

00:33:05.000 Oh, look at the oligarchic Republicans with their business ties, and yet they're sending your 401k spiraling down.

00:33:12.000 If you were a smart Democratic politician, this is the thing you would be doing, correct?

00:33:16.000 You would be focusing in like a laser beam on the economy.

00:33:20.000 Because if the economy continues to decline, if we fall under recession, that's going to be your move.

00:33:27.000 And yet Democrats are apparently...

00:33:30.000 Complete idiots.

00:33:31.000 They fell off the stupid tree and hit every branch on the way down because they are focused in laser-like on the defense of a Hamas sympathizer whose green card is going to be removed.

00:33:40.000 This is the thing they have decided is absolutely vital for them to stand against.

00:33:45.000 It's unreal.

00:33:46.000 I mean, seriously, it's just political malpractice at this point.

00:33:49.000 So this person's name is Mahmoud Khalil.

00:33:52.000 Yesterday, the White House announced that they would be moving to deport Mahmoud Khalil.

00:33:56.000 Who the hell is Mahmoud Khalil?

00:33:58.000 Well, he's an anti-Israel, pro-Hamas activist, and he's an actual pro-Hamas activist, who led protests at Columbia University when all those buildings were occupied and the tentafada was taking place.

00:34:09.000 It was announced by the White House that ICE would be arresting him and removing him.

00:34:15.000 The White House put out a meme reading, Shalom Mahmoud, which of course is a reference to President Trump's statement, Shalom Hamas, telling Hamas they needed to give up all the hostages so they would cease to exist.

00:34:26.000 Obviously the connection there.

00:34:27.000 Has to do with the fact that this person is extraordinarily pro-Hamas.

00:34:32.000 President Trump said, we will find, apprehend, and deport terrorist sympathizers from our country never to return again.

00:34:36.000 Which seems like a pretty commonsensical policy.

00:34:38.000 That if you're here on a green card and you support terrorism, probably you shouldn't be here.

00:34:41.000 We don't need you here.

00:34:43.000 According to the Wall Street Journal, Columbia University student Mahmoud Khalil was the first to be arrested by Homeland Security agents for his participation in pro-Palestinian demonstrations on campus.

00:34:52.000 President Trump vowed he would not be the last.

00:34:54.000 And again.

00:34:54.000 That is a misread by the news department at the Wall Street Journal, which is to the left of the New York Times.

00:34:59.000 He was not arrested because he went to a pro-Palestinian demonstration.

00:35:02.000 He was arrested because he has active ties to groups that openly support Hamas.

00:35:07.000 That would be the reason.

00:35:09.000 Trump said in a social media post, quote, we know there are more students at Columbia and other universities across the country who have engaged in pro-terrorist, anti-Semitic, anti-American activity that Trump administration will not tolerate it.

00:35:19.000 The education department said Monday it sent letters to 60 schools.

00:35:25.000 And again, that is an outgrowth of the Civil Rights Act, which lays out that all these colleges have anti-discrimination policies on the basis of race.

00:35:34.000 That applies to black students, white students, Jewish students, Arab students, everybody.

00:35:38.000 So you can't selectively fail to enforce the law when it comes to the Jews, is sort of the point that Trump has made.

00:35:44.000 Khalil played a prominent role in organizing protests last year against the war in Gaza, often addressing crowds on Colombia's lawn and giving interviews to national media.

00:35:51.000 He was inside the Barnard Library during an occupation last week to protest the expulsion of two students for earlier demonstrations, according to photographs posted on social media.

00:35:59.000 But that is not actually the full story about Mahmoud Khalil and the people he has associated himself with.

00:36:09.000 Thank you.

00:36:10.000 Secretary of State Marco Rubio put out a statement.

00:36:12.000 We'll be revoking the visas and or green cards of Hamas supporters in America so they can be deported.

00:36:16.000 The Homeland Security Department put out a statement as well, quote, Again, there's a difference between pro-Palestinian and aligned with Hamas, although distinction has been obliterated by the pro-Palestinian crowd, who have largely aligned with Hamas at this point.

00:36:44.000 So what are exactly?

00:36:46.000 Beyond him saying bad stuff, what exactly is the thing that's getting him in trouble here?

00:36:52.000 Well, it turns out that the group that he headed, Columbia University Apartheid Divest, withdrew an apology that it made for a member who said Zionists don't deserve to live.

00:37:05.000 Columbia University Apartheid Divest, which was this guy's group, put out a statement.

00:37:10.000 This is according to the New York Times, October 9th, 2024. Quote, we support liberation by any means necessary, including armed resistance.

00:37:19.000 That's not just pro-Palestinian, that is pro-Hamas. 0.92

00:37:22.000 That is what you are talking about.

00:37:24.000 They then distributed a newspaper with a headline that used Hamas's name.

00:37:29.000 Quote, one year since Al-Aqsa flood, revolution until victory, it read, over a picture of Hamas fighters breaching the security fence to Israel.

00:37:36.000 The group posted an essay calling the attack a moral, military, and political victory.

00:37:42.000 I mean, that's pretty pro-Hamas. 1.00

00:37:44.000 That's like pro-terrorist group.

00:37:47.000 And again, if you're an American citizen and you do this sort of stuff, that's one thing.

00:37:50.000 If you're a green card holder, why do we need you here? 0.99

00:37:52.000 Green card does not give you the right under American law to actively orient yourself toward terrorism.

00:38:00.000 That is not a thing.

00:38:01.000 When the founders were constructing the Constitution, they're not like, let's bring people from abroad who hate America and love terrorism. 0.99

00:38:07.000 That was never considered a right under American law.

00:38:11.000 The group wrote on October 7, 2024, quote, the Palestinian resistance is moving their struggle to a new phase of escalation.

00:38:17.000 It is our duty to meet them there.

00:38:18.000 It is our duty to fight for our freedom.

00:38:20.000 That would be Hamas that this person is talking about.

00:38:25.000 So, again, the New York Times recognized at the time, this is before the election, that this could lead to federal investigations into campus anti-Semitism or on-campus discipline if these were deemed to create a hostile environment for Jewish students.

00:38:40.000 Now, again, it's more than that.

00:38:42.000 It turns out that Khalil's group, the Columbia University Apartheid Divest, was one of 150 pro-terrorism groups identified by journalist Ryan Morrow over at Capital Research.

00:38:55.000 Khalil's group says that it is, quote, fighting for a total eradication of Western civilization.

00:39:00.000 It also asks for help from violent extremists abroad, quote, we seek instructions from militants in the global South.

00:39:08.000 Khalil's group said we in America must be killed, jailed, and tortured and targeted in order to genuinely threaten the state as part of the global intifada.

00:39:16.000 He suggested the only way to respond to state repression is to storm prisons and release prisoners and burn down prisoners, prisons, government offices, and state vehicles.

00:39:24.000 That's Khalil's group.

00:39:27.000 I mean, like, I don't know how much clearer your sympathy for Hamas has to get in order for you to, you know, violate the law.

00:39:34.000 So what does the law actually say on this?

00:39:37.000 Well, what exactly does the law actually say?

00:39:39.000 Well, good news.

00:39:39.000 We actually know what the law says.

00:39:41.000 According to Immigration and National Act Section 212, there are a number of grounds for an eligibility for a green card or immigration based on security grounds.

00:39:50.000 That includes, quote, anyone who endorses or espouses terrorist activity or persuades others to endorse or espouse terrorist activity or support a terrorist organization.

00:40:00.000 So, yeah, I mean that.

00:40:02.000 The Supreme Court has ruled back in 1904 that anarchists, for example, could be barred from the United States.

00:40:07.000 Congress is of the opinion that the tendency of the general exploitation of such use is so dangerous to the public wheel that aliens who hold and advocate them would be undesirable additions to our population.

00:40:17.000 Again, there's a section of the INA that grants the State Department broad authority to deport any alien, quote, whose presence or activities in the United States, the Secretary of State has reasonable ground to believe would have potentially serious adverse foreign policy consequences for the United States.

00:40:32.000 And that is exactly the authority that Secretary of State Rubio is citing in this guy's deportation.

00:40:37.000 So you're hearing the sob stories from the left.

00:40:40.000 So what did the Senate Judiciary Democrats do?

00:40:42.000 Again, the stock market tanked to the tune of 900 points yesterday.

00:40:47.000 And it has tanked to the tune of a significant percentage of the stock market's total value since the election.

00:40:56.000 So what are Democrats focused laser-like on?

00:40:58.000 Their hero of the day, Hamas, open Hamas sympathizer. 0.90

00:41:02.000 And pseudo-revolutionary Mahmoud Khalil.

00:41:05.000 They put out a tweet in the Senate Judiciary Democrats with a picture of this guy that said, free Mahmoud Khalil.

00:41:13.000 So just to get this straight, Democrats would not cheer last week for the family of Lake and Riley.

00:41:20.000 They would not stand up and applaud the family of Jocelyn Nungary, who was killed by illegal immigrants, but they are going to stand foursquare behind... 1.00

00:41:29.000 A terrorist sympathizer who used to work for the UNRWA when not calling for the overthrow of Western civilization.

00:41:35.000 They're going to cheer for that guy.

00:41:36.000 He has to stay in the United States.

00:41:39.000 Guys, the political malpractice here is so strong.

00:41:41.000 The Democrats here are so unbelievably bad at this.

00:41:45.000 Truly, truly awful at this.

00:41:47.000 Now, a judge has temporarily blocked the deportation.

00:41:49.000 He's going to get overruled.

00:41:50.000 This judge also happens to be brothers with Jason Furman, member of the Obama administration.

00:41:55.000 Most of his relatives work in, like, deep blue American institutions and all the rest.

00:42:02.000 Van Jones, perhaps the last sane man on the Democratic side of the aisle, he was pointing out, like, guys, what are you doing?

00:42:07.000 Like, what are you doing?

00:42:10.000 Look, man, we're screwed.

00:42:12.000 I mean, Democrats don't know what to do.

00:42:14.000 This is a nightmare.

00:42:16.000 You know, somebody like Donald Trump, we thought we'd at least have, you know, Hakeem Jeffries in the Speaker's chair to hold him back if we didn't have Kamala in there to do the right thing.

00:42:24.000 Listen.

00:42:25.000 The Democratic Party is going through a massive set of internal crises.

00:42:31.000 You have a party that got trapped two ways.

00:42:34.000 One, defending a broken status quo that nobody likes because they thought that Donald Trump was going to make it worse.

00:42:42.000 But when you're defending a status quo, you're going to lose.

00:42:44.000 and then offending most people in the country calling everybody sexist and racist and transphobic and every other name and then saying, please follow us. 0.70

00:42:53.000 That's not a good strategy, folks.

00:42:55.000 Defending a broken status quo and offending most of the country turns out is not as popular as my party thought it was going to be.

00:43:03.000 You know, again, Van is the only person speaking truth to power on CNN who is not a stated Republican.

00:43:10.000 But the Democrats are going to keep going down this path, which is why Whoopi Goldberg had on Dylan Mulvaney, singularly responsible for the for the complete collapse of the Bud Light brand.

00:43:19.000 They had on Dylan Mulvaney, a man pretending to be a woman to talk about how men should compete with women in athletics.

00:43:25.000 I mean, they just they keep doubling down on stupid.

00:43:27.000 It's amazing.

00:43:28.000 It's amazing.

00:43:28.000 The roulette wheel keeps turning up the other way.

00:43:30.000 And they're like, what if I just keep doubling down on the stupid?

00:43:35.000 Well, I think part of the problem that the trans community is facing, and it's the same problem that.

00:43:43.000 Women face is if you don't know anything about our bodies, you don't know how it works. 1.00

00:43:48.000 So when you come in and you say, oh, you know, these men, these are men, you know, competing against women, you're assuming that the women are weak and just can't do anything except for here.

00:44:04.000 Have you seen female athletes? 1.00

00:44:07.000 They know what they're doing.

00:44:09.000 So I'm not sure what's going on or why this is an issue.

00:44:15.000 Okay, unbelievable.

00:44:17.000 I'm sorry, but female athletes who know what they're doing, like Riley Gaines, who's like an NCAA champion, they're going to get clobbered by any half-decent dude in the pool. 1.00

00:44:27.000 Everyone knows this.

00:44:28.000 This is just basic human biology.

00:44:30.000 I'm sorry that facts exist for Whoopi Goldberg because it makes her job really uncomfortable, but let Democrats keep following this path.

00:44:36.000 Seriously.

00:44:37.000 And Democrats are stuck.

00:44:38.000 Because they keep throwing out these same types of people.

00:44:41.000 There's an entire article in Politico about Tim Walls, as though Tim Walls is going to make a giant comeback after his goofball presentation on the national stage, or Kamala Harris, or Gavin Newsom, who's now cleverly attempting to move away from some of the woke stuff.

00:44:54.000 The thing that I'm absolutely puzzled by, if you're a Democrat, I do not understand.

00:44:57.000 You have a point of vulnerability now in the markets.

00:45:00.000 Why are you not focusing in on that?

00:45:02.000 And the answer is they're so tied to their own social issues that they can't let go of them.

00:45:05.000 This is the thing they actually care about.

00:45:07.000 It's truly amazing.

00:45:09.000 By the way, when it comes to the colleges and universities, we mentioned what's going on in Columbia.

00:45:14.000 Something fairly amazing happened yesterday.

00:45:16.000 So Harvard and Yale were among 60 colleges who were warned of fund cuts over claims that they have not properly policed discrimination against Jews on campus.

00:45:26.000 And these universities are panicking.

00:45:28.000 They are freaking out.

00:45:29.000 These universities are claiming that this will mean serious cuts to their budget, to their ability to take care of students.

00:45:36.000 I mean, you're saying the quiet part out loud, which is that your government supported institutions.

00:45:40.000 All of these campuses have billion-dollar endowments.

00:45:43.000 They have much money, lots and lots of money.

00:45:47.000 But they are adjuncts to the federal government.

00:45:49.000 And now that the federal government is saying, no, we're done with this, they're freaking out.

00:45:53.000 Which demonstrates just how deeply intertwined pseudo-private institutions like Harvard and Yale are with the blue state Democratic Party in the federal government.

00:46:03.000 Already coming up.

00:46:04.000 We're going to get into the latest in Ukraine.

00:46:07.000 We're also going to be getting into a piece of interesting news from Netflix.

00:46:11.000 First, you actually go become a subscriber.

00:46:13.000 And the reason you do that is because we have all sorts of great stuff behind the paywall.

00:46:15.000 We've got Morning Wire.

00:46:16.000 We've got MI Racist.

00:46:17.000 We've got What is a Woman. 0.99

00:46:18.000 We have All Access Live.

00:46:20.000 Tons of stuff.

00:46:20.000 And you get to hang out with us behind the paywall.

00:46:22.000 If you're not a member, become a member.

00:46:23.000 Use code Shapiro at checkout for two months free on all annual plans.

The Ben Shapiro Show - March 11, 2025

Stock Market PLUNGES…So What’s Next?!

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