The Ben Shapiro Show - The Biden Comeback | Ep. 964

00:00:00.000 Joe Biden swamps the competition in South Carolina.

00:00:03.000 Super Tuesday approacheth, and that right soon.

00:00:05.000 And the Trump administration deals with fallout from the spread of coronavirus.

00:00:08.000 I'm Ben Shapiro.

00:00:09.000 This is the Ben Shapiro Show.

00:00:10.000 Today's show is sponsored by ExpressVPN.

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00:00:23.000 By the way, you may have noticed that everybody is panicked about coronavirus.

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00:01:35.000 Again, text MYNAMEBEN So, tomorrow is Super Tuesday, and it's gonna be super!

00:01:39.000 It's very, very Super Tuesday.

00:01:40.000 Why?

00:01:40.000 Well, because we finally have a competition.

00:01:41.000 to precious metals investing.

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00:01:53.000 All righty.

00:01:54.000 So tomorrow is Super Tuesday, and it's going to be super.

00:01:57.000 It's very, very Super Tuesday.

00:01:59.000 Why?

00:01:59.000 Well, because we finally have a competition.

00:02:01.000 According to FiveThirtyEight, there is now a two-thirds chance of an open convention in the Democratic Party, which is a nightmare scenario for the Democrats.

00:02:09.000 Because right now, the way that FiveThirtyEight has this thing gamed out, according to their latest poll statistics and their latest metrics, They believe that Sanders will go in to the convention, the Democratic convention, with a slight plurality of delegates.

00:02:24.000 When I say slight, I mean super duper slight.

00:02:26.000 When you look at the way they are gaming this out, they say in the remaining 10,000 simulations, they run tons of simulations, then they sort of average the simulations.

00:02:34.000 They're suggesting that Bernie Sanders would end up with around 1,600 delegates.

00:02:38.000 You need 2,000 to clinch the nomination.

00:02:40.000 He'd end up with about 1,600 delegates.

00:02:41.000 Joe Biden would end up with about 1,450.

00:02:44.000 Michael Bloomberg could end up with about 600 delegates, and Elizabeth Warren would end up with about 239 delegates, which means that Bloomberg and Biden combined would be just about like right at 2,000 delegates, and Sanders and Warren combined would be at like 1,900 delegates.

00:02:59.000 So how exactly does that play out?

00:03:01.000 Who the hell knows?

00:03:02.000 Because presumably Warren throws her support to Bernie Sanders and Michael Bloomberg throws his support to Joe Biden on the second ballot.

00:03:08.000 And then you have the moderate ticket that overcomes the Bernie ticket.

00:03:11.000 But the problem is that the Bernie ticket then walks out and most of his voters don't go and vote for Joe Biden because they don't like Joe Biden.

00:03:17.000 So it's a real disaster area inside the Democratic Party.

00:03:19.000 Things got a lot more complicated with Joe Biden winning big in South Carolina over the weekend.

00:03:25.000 And a few things became obvious.

00:03:26.000 One, Black audience is not resonating to Bernie Sanders, right?

00:03:30.000 But Bernie does real well in very white states.

00:03:32.000 He did very well in Iowa, did very well in New Hampshire.

00:03:34.000 There's a lot of talk about how he did well with Latino audiences, but Latino audiences are not quite as polarized among Democratic candidates as Black audiences are, obviously, because Joe Biden ran away, just skunked Bernie.

00:03:45.000 And a lot of that has to do with the fact that the Black electorate in places like South Carolina is a church-going electorate, and Bernie is overtly Non-religious, not only overtly non-religious, anti-religious in many cases.

00:03:57.000 It's not just that he talks about how he's Jewish because that really has no impact.

00:04:00.000 He is not Jewish in any real sense other than the ethnic. 0.91

00:04:03.000 He's certainly not religiously Jewish.

00:04:04.000 He is not culturally Jewish.

00:04:05.000 Like, there's nothing about him that's Jewish other than the fact that he was born into a Jewish family.

00:04:09.000 Which makes him technically, ethnically Jewish.

00:04:11.000 But that's not going to play extraordinarily well in church-going states.

00:04:15.000 His sort of overt atheism and socialism, those are not going to play great in states like South Carolina, where Joe Biden is seen as more of a consensus pick.

00:04:23.000 Joe Biden was resonating in South Carolina, and he blew out, I mean, blew out Bernie Sanders.

00:04:29.000 The fact of the matter is this was meant to be, it was thought that this was going to be a close race.

00:04:32.000 The conventional wisdom, which I had largely bought into prior to the kind of late breaking polls last week, is that Joe Biden had collapsed in the first three states.

00:04:39.000 You can't lose the first three states this way and then have a massive comeback victory.

00:04:43.000 The problem is that the electorate is so different in South Carolina demographically than the electorate is in any of the first three states that apparently you can.

00:04:50.000 Apparently you can have something like a South Carolina firewall.

00:04:53.000 And so Joe Biden, for the first time, actually demonstrates that a firewall works.

00:04:57.000 So he just kills the competition.

00:05:00.000 He won nearly 50% of the vote in South Carolina.

00:05:04.000 And Bernie just got skunked in South Carolina.

00:05:07.000 The final results in South Carolina.

00:05:10.000 For the Democrats, brutal.

00:05:11.000 48% for Joe Biden.

00:05:12.000 He more than doubled up Bernie.

00:05:12.000 48.4%.

00:05:14.000 Bernie got 19.9%, Tom Steyer got 11.3%, and Pete Buttigieg got 8.2%.

00:05:16.000 He more than doubled up Bernie.

00:05:17.000 Bernie got 19.9%.

00:05:20.000 Tom Steyer got 11.3%.

00:05:21.000 And Pete Buttigieg got 8.2%.

00:05:24.000 And Biden was really excited about all this.

00:05:27.000 He won 39 delegates to Bernie Sanders.

00:05:29.000 He's running an extraordinarily narrow delegate gap to Bernie.

00:05:29.000 He's 13.

00:05:34.000 He's down by like five delegates going into Super Tuesday.

00:05:36.000 Super Tuesday, of course, you have hundreds and hundreds of delegates who are up for grabs.

00:05:39.000 1,200, 1,300 delegates who are up for grabs.

00:05:42.000 There's no question that Biden has momentum going into Super Tuesday.

00:05:46.000 Joe Biden was pretty celebratory about it.

00:05:48.000 He should be.

00:05:49.000 It's the first Democratic primary he's ever won.

00:05:50.000 He's run for president three times.

00:05:52.000 This is the first Democratic primary he's ever won, and he won going away.

00:05:55.000 By the way, if Barack Obama were to sound even a mild note of endorsement of Bernie, of Biden at this point, which is what he should do, because basically this race is now down to Biden and Bernie.

00:06:06.000 Bloomberg does not have a path to the nomination.

00:06:08.000 There's no way that Bloomberg ends up with either a plurality of the delegates or that Bloomberg ends up with a majority of the delegates.

00:06:14.000 So that means it's a two-man race.

00:06:16.000 Why Obama wouldn't come out?

00:06:17.000 He doesn't even have to endorse Biden.

00:06:19.000 Just say, I trust Joe.

00:06:20.000 Joe's wonderful.

00:06:21.000 He doesn't even have to overtly endorse him.

00:06:23.000 Just say some kind words right before Super Tuesday.

00:06:24.000 It would make a big difference because one of the things that made a huge difference, apparently, was Jim Clyburn in South Carolina getting behind Joe Biden.

00:06:30.000 Apparently, 25 percent by exit polls of the people who voted in that primary said that Jim Clyburn's endorsement of Joe Biden made a big difference.

00:06:37.000 There's a reason that Joe Biden is also going around seeking endorsements of major political figures in states like Virginia.

00:06:43.000 He got the endorsement from Senator Tim Kaine and the endorsement from former Governor Terry McAuliffe in Virginia over the weekend as well.

00:06:49.000 So he's hoping to run up the scores in the various southern states where there's a heavy black population.

00:06:53.000 Because again, there is this massive demographic gap in the Democratic Party between upper class white liberals and young white liberals who apparently really like Bernie Sanders and everybody else who really likes Joe Biden.

00:07:05.000 So Biden, at his rally on Saturday night, very excited.

00:07:07.000 He says, Democrats want a Democratic nominee.

00:07:09.000 We don't want a socialist, we want a Democratic nominee.

00:07:11.000 Democrats want to nominate someone who will build on Obamacare, not scrap it.

00:07:16.000 Take on the NRA and gun manufacturers, not protect them.

00:07:23.000 Stand up and give the poor a fighting chance for the middle class to get restored, not raise their taxes and keep the promises we make.

00:07:30.000 Then join us.

00:07:32.000 And if the Democrats want a nominee who's a Democrat.

00:07:35.000 And that is him saying this guy's too radical.

00:07:39.000 You should not do.

00:07:39.000 Now, here's the thing.

00:07:40.000 If Biden comes away from Super Tuesday, anywhere within remote distance of Bernie, he ends up with a plurality of the delegates.

00:07:47.000 So tomorrow matters an awful lot because once this is down to a two man race, let's say Bloomberg underperforms.

00:07:52.000 So what's what's weird about the way that the Democratic primaries work for folks who don't understand the process, the Republican primaries, if you win a plurality of the votes in a state, you win the entirety of the delegates.

00:08:02.000 This is how Donald Trump never won more than 50% in a state through the vast majority of the primaries, but ended up with the majority of the delegates because he was winning 30, 35%, but it was enough to win.

00:08:12.000 And because it was enough to win, he won all the delegates, right?

00:08:14.000 So he ends up with the majority of the delegates at the convention.

00:08:17.000 Democrats don't work that way. 0.99

00:08:18.000 All of their primaries are proportional representation.

00:08:21.000 That means that if Joe Biden wins 30% and Bernie wins 20%, then Joe Biden wins 30% of the delegates and Bernie wins 20% of the delegates.

00:08:29.000 Now, there is one exception.

00:08:30.000 There's a cutoff.

00:08:31.000 If you win 10% of the votes in a particular state, That's below the cutoff.

00:08:36.000 You have to have 15% of the votes in a particular state like California in order to win any delegates at all.

00:08:41.000 And in California, we're going to examine the state by state in just a moment.

00:08:44.000 In California, that's going to make an awful lot of difference because California is the most delegate-rich state for the Democrats.

00:08:49.000 If Joe Biden finishes at 12%, it's a disaster for him.

00:08:52.000 If he finishes at 16% and Bernie wins 35%, that's still not a disaster for Joe Biden.

00:08:58.000 But bottom line is this, if Super Tuesday ends up relatively even with Biden in just like a slight Downward motion.

00:09:05.000 Let's say that Bernie has 600 delegates and Biden has 560 delegates or something.

00:09:11.000 What you're going to end up with is Biden as the nominee.

00:09:13.000 And the reason you're going to end up with Biden as the nominee is as the field consolidates, all the money's going to push behind Biden.

00:09:18.000 You're headed into a bunch of delegate-rich states like Florida, where Biden is likely to swamp Bernie.

00:09:23.000 So this thing is actually a race now.

00:09:24.000 It's actually a race.

00:09:25.000 Biden was pushing over the weekend, pushing very hard.

00:09:27.000 He says Bernie can't win over the weekend.

00:09:29.000 He, of course, Is making a case.

00:09:31.000 This is his entire case.

00:09:32.000 His entire case is I'm electable against Trump and Bernie is not.

00:09:35.000 I can win and I can bring along democratic victories up and down the state.

00:09:40.000 I can keep the United States Senate.

00:09:42.000 I can win the United States Senate at the top of the ticket.

00:09:45.000 I can keep the House and increase the number in the House.

00:09:48.000 I can go into every state in the nation.

00:09:50.000 I can go into purple states and we can win.

00:09:52.000 I can win in places where I don't think Bernie can win in the general election.

00:09:57.000 And that is his case.

00:09:59.000 That's his case.

00:10:00.000 Now, as you will see, there's still a bit of a delusion to Biden, right, that he's running a strong campaign or that he's going to lock this thing up before the before the end of the primary season, or that he even knows what he's talking about.

00:10:11.000 There are serious problems with the Biden campaign, namely Joe Biden.

00:10:14.000 We'll get to that in just a moment.

00:10:16.000 But then we're going to examine the field consolidating because Pete Buttigieg, out.

00:10:20.000 Tom Steyer, out.

00:10:21.000 Elizabeth Warren, hanging around for no reason just like John Kasich in 2016 for some odd reason she thinks that she's going to be the nominee for no one understands why.

00:10:29.000 We're going to get to that in just one second.

00:10:30.000 First, let's talk about the Second Amendment.

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00:12:06.000 Okay, so Joe Biden did have a big win in South Carolina.

00:12:09.000 He does have momentum, serious momentum, going into Super Tuesday.

00:12:12.000 We're going to examine that in just a second.

00:12:14.000 But look, Joe Biden still has flaws in his campaign.

00:12:18.000 And when Joe Biden says, for example, over the weekend, he said, I can win this before the convention.

00:12:21.000 No, he can't.

00:12:22.000 He can't.

00:12:22.000 He basically has no shot of winning this thing before the convention.

00:12:25.000 According to FiveThirtyEight, his shot of winning a majority of delegates before the convention is like one in seven.

00:12:30.000 Bernie Sanders, by the way, down to one in five.

00:12:32.000 As FiveThirtyEight estimates, two-thirds chance that it's an open convention, which is, again, a disaster area for Democrats.

00:12:38.000 Can you imagine how mad the Bernie bros will be if Bernie walks in with a plurality of the delegates, like a hundred more delegates than Joe Biden, and Biden walks away with the nomination?

00:12:46.000 Can you imagine the insanity that's going to break out in the Democratic Party halls?

00:12:50.000 Can you imagine how bad it'll be, conversely, if they hand it to Bernie and Biden and Bloomberg have a combined 200 more delegates than Bernie and Warren?

00:12:57.000 Can you imagine how the moderate wing is going to react to all of that?

00:13:00.000 I mean that the chaos inside the convention is going to be madness.

00:13:02.000 Here is Joe Biden trying to whistle through the graveyard saying he can win before the convention.

00:13:08.000 Do you think you can win this primary before the convention?

00:13:12.000 Or do you think it's inevitable though that you and Sanders may have to work this out at the convention?

00:13:18.000 I think I could win it before the convention.

00:13:20.000 But again, I'm not... Look, all I know is I think we're moving into constituencies that are constituencies, when they hear me, they've always been mine.

00:13:32.000 That's him basically saying no.

00:13:33.000 We're going to go all the way to the convention.

00:13:34.000 By the way, what SOP can he offer to Bernie that is going to satisfy Bernie?

00:13:38.000 What's he going to make him?

00:13:39.000 UN ambassador?

00:13:40.000 What exactly can Biden offer to Bernie that is going to make Bernie quiescent about all of this?

00:13:44.000 Bernie has a movement.

00:13:45.000 There's no reason for Bernie to go into a Biden administration.

00:13:47.000 There's no reason for him to tie his shoelaces to Joe Biden's shoelaces.

00:13:53.000 Then he gets none of the credit if Joe Biden wins and all of the blame if Joe Biden loses.

00:13:57.000 It's an unbridgeable gap inside the Democratic Party.

00:13:59.000 Meanwhile, Joe Biden again whistling past the graveyard saying that the lack of Barack Obama's endorsement isn't hurting him.

00:14:04.000 It is.

00:14:05.000 I mean, if Barack Obama came out tomorrow and endorsed him, Biden would win the nomination and he'd win it walking away.

00:14:09.000 But Obama's not getting involved, which is truly an amazing spectacle that Obama, who hates Sanders and thinks that Sanders is a toolbag, because he is, and who supposedly likes Joe Biden, won't come out at this point in a highly contested primary season and just say, I like Joe.

00:14:25.000 Doesn't even have to endorse him.

00:14:25.000 Doesn't even have to say, I'd vote for Joe.

00:14:28.000 I mean, he should say, I'd vote for Joe over Sanders, right?

00:14:31.000 Who are you voting for, Barack?

00:14:32.000 I'm voting for Joe.

00:14:33.000 Like, why wouldn't he just say that?

00:14:34.000 It's pretty incredible that he's been silent about all of this.

00:14:36.000 Here is Joe Biden suggesting that it's not a problem for him that Obama hasn't endorsed him.

00:14:41.000 It isn't hurting me, and I don't think it's time.

00:14:43.000 He and I have talked about this in the very beginning.

00:14:46.000 I have to earn this on my own.

00:14:48.000 Remember, George, the first thing everybody said when I announced, the opposition, the Democratic opposition, said, well, Biden feels entitled because he's vice president.

00:14:57.000 Imagine had the president endorsed me.

00:14:58.000 It would have been, well, Biden's entitled because he thinks he's entitled because The bottom line is that the only reason that anybody takes Joe Biden remotely seriously is because Barack Obama was the president and Joe Biden was his vice president.

00:15:11.000 Joe Biden's run for president twice before and not received a single electoral vote.

00:15:14.000 Not one.

00:15:15.000 So not one delegate.

00:15:16.000 So obviously this is all about Obama.

00:15:18.000 Meanwhile, again, the biggest threat to Joe Biden is the fact that he is Joe Biden, right?

00:15:21.000 The biggest upside to Joe Biden for Democrats is that he has the patina, the sort of shine of Barack Obama on him, the halo of Barack Obama on him.

00:15:32.000 If he were not that, he would be nothing because this is a guy who bumbles and fumbles and he's terrible, right?

00:15:35.000 Here was Joe Biden yesterday confusing Ebola with coronavirus. 0.94

00:15:39.000 What the hell is he even talking about?

00:15:41.000 I mean, there's just not a lot going on in that head.

00:15:43.000 Meanwhile, the field is consolidating.

00:15:45.000 Pete Buttigieg has ended his run.

00:15:46.000 of Ebola, excuse me, in terms of dealing with the issues that relate to what we put together when we face the pandemic of Ebola.

00:15:55.000 What the hell is he even talking about?

00:15:56.000 I mean, like there's not a lot going on in that head.

00:15:59.000 Meanwhile, the field is consolidating.

00:16:01.000 Pete Buttigieg has ended his run.

00:16:02.000 Pete Buttigieg was the most talented politician in this field.

00:16:05.000 He also was the guy who was smart enough to get out now because he recognized that if you were to stay in and complicate this, if you were to split votes, if you were to take away a few delegates from Joe Biden and then be blamed for Bernie Sanders's rise, then it would be very bad for him.

00:16:21.000 Now, here's the problem for Buttigieg.

00:16:22.000 People keep saying he'll be able to run for president again and it'll all be fine.

00:16:24.000 No, this is pretty much it for Buttigieg, because unless he is appointed to some sort of role inside a Democratic administration, he has no pathway to glory.

00:16:31.000 He's in Indiana.

00:16:32.000 Unless he carpet bags it over to New York or carpet bags it over to Massachusetts, He ain't going anywhere in Indiana.

00:16:37.000 Indiana's a red state.

00:16:38.000 It's increasingly red.

00:16:40.000 When he ran statewide, he lost by 20 points.

00:16:42.000 So the problem for Pete Buttigieg is that Buttigieg really had no upward trajectory inside his own state, which is why he ran as mayor of South Bend, Indiana.

00:16:48.000 What's he just going to stay mayor of South Bend, Indiana and then run for president again?

00:16:52.000 So, Buttigieg obviously made a lot of waves because he's gay. 0.53

00:16:54.000 I mean, again, let's be real about this.

00:16:57.000 If he were a straight man, he certainly wouldn't have made the sort of national waves that he did.

00:17:00.000 He's a very talented guy. 0.98

00:17:02.000 He is smug and awful. 0.98

00:17:04.000 I mean, Pete Buttigieg is the guy who is also lecturing Americans about how they were bad Christians if they didn't agree with his take on abortion and same-sex marriage, which is patently crazy. 0.98

00:17:11.000 But Buttigieg is a talented guy.

00:17:14.000 People in the Democratic Party who are patting him on the head and saying, well, he'll be back someday.

00:17:18.000 He'll be back someday.

00:17:19.000 Not unless he's appointed to Secretary of Defense.

00:17:22.000 Otherwise, Pete Buttigieg's day in the sunshine is over, yes, at age 38.

00:17:27.000 Because, again, he has no upward trajectory inside of his states.

00:17:29.000 Unless he carpetbags it or unless he's appointed inside a Democratic administration, it's over for him.

00:17:33.000 But he understands that his smart role is to get out again.

00:17:35.000 Again, the smartest politician in the race was Buttigieg.

00:17:38.000 He made the smartest move now, which is get out right now.

00:17:40.000 Don't wait until things get complicated.

00:17:42.000 Meanwhile, the dummy Elizabeth Warren is staying in to complicate things for Bernie Sanders, which is kind of fascinating.

00:17:47.000 So, Buttigieg is being treated with all sorts of plaudits this morning, despite the fact that he really is insufferable on a wide variety of levels.

00:17:55.000 Yesterday, he announced that he was dropping out because he has to help the new Democratic nominee speaking from South Bend.

00:18:01.000 I recognize that at this point in the race, the best way to keep faith with those goals and ideals is to step aside and help bring our party and our country together.

00:18:11.000 So tonight, I am making the difficult decision to suspend my campaign for the presidency.

00:18:18.000 I will no longer seek to be the 2020 Democratic nominee for president, but I will do everything in my power to ensure that we have a new Democratic president come January.

00:18:29.000 He and Biden are trading voicemails, by the way.

00:18:31.000 So there's a significant possibility that after Super Tuesday, you could see people if it's competitive, you could see people jump into the Biden camp and and you could see Biden.

00:18:40.000 Presumably, you know, give Buttigieg exactly what he needs, which is some sort of cabinet appointment.

00:18:45.000 That's the only thing that Buttigieg has in terms of a political future is some sort of cabinet appointment.

00:18:50.000 And so him trading that to Biden in favor of whatever level of support Buttigieg has nationally, which is not great, but is something.

00:18:56.000 That would be the smart move by Buttigieg, which presumably is why he was not trading phone calls with Bernie Sanders.

00:19:01.000 Meanwhile, Tom Steyer has also announced that he is out, the billionaire who spent like $200 million on this campaign to win two delegates or something.

00:19:10.000 This guy spent something like $3,300 per vote in South Carolina.

00:19:15.000 He announced that he was out.

00:19:16.000 He's going to throw presumably his massive, massive support behind Bernie Sanders.

00:19:20.000 I mean, the guy was desperately trying to get a hug from Bernie Sanders nearly the entire campaign.

00:19:24.000 Harris Steyer announcing he was dropping out.

00:19:27.000 There's no question today that this campaign, we were disappointed with where we came out.

00:19:32.000 I think we got one or two delegates from congressional districts, which I thank South Carolina for and the people. - Thank you.

00:19:41.000 But I said if I didn't see a path to winning, that I'd suspend my campaign.

00:19:47.000 And honestly, I can't see a path where I can win the presidency.

00:19:52.000 So am I going to continue to work on every single one of these issues?

00:19:57.000 Yes, of course I am.

00:19:59.000 Okay, so here is where we now stand.

00:20:01.000 We have a consolidation of the field.

00:20:03.000 Buttigieg is out.

00:20:04.000 He was expected by 538 to win about 50 delegates over the course of the Super Tuesday contest.

00:20:10.000 He will win some delegates anyway because there's all this early voting and early vote. 0.99

00:20:13.000 This just shows you why early voting is stupid. 0.96

00:20:15.000 Some 300,000 people have already cast ballots in California, and many of them have cast ballots for people who are not even on the ballot anymore, right? 0.99

00:20:22.000 People who are not going to matter.

00:20:23.000 People like Pete Buttigieg.

00:20:25.000 So that's pretty amazing.

00:20:26.000 But let's assume that most of Buttigieg's delegates move over to Biden.

00:20:30.000 Well, that means that according to FiveThirtyEight, looking at the numbers that they are putting forth, This is the average number of delegates each Democratic presidential candidate is forecasted to receive from each Super Tuesday contest.

00:20:40.000 According to their 5.38 primary forecast, this would be as of 11.30 a.m.

00:20:44.000 Eastern yesterday.

00:20:46.000 They were suggesting that Sanders would walk away with about 540 delegates from Super Tuesday, that Biden would walk away with about 395, that Bloomberg would walk away without 194, and that Buttigieg would walk away with 50 and Warren with 133.

00:20:58.000 Well, Bloomberg and Buttigieg, it really depends on whether you think that Bloomberg's numbers are actually real.

00:21:05.000 And I have serious doubts that Bloomberg's numbers are real.

00:21:07.000 I think that Bloomberg is going to perform, once he's on the ballot, almost exactly like Tom Steyer did.

00:21:12.000 Tom Steyer was running 15 to 20 percent in South Carolina.

00:21:14.000 Once he was actually on the ballot in South Carolina and people were forced to choose and they recognized that Steyer was not a viable candidate, Then they just didn't vote for him and got 11% of the vote and most of that went to other candidates.

00:21:25.000 I think you're going to see the same thing happen with Michael Bloomberg, who is fully delusional at this point.

00:21:29.000 Bloomberg is just walking around as though he has a shot at the nomination.

00:21:32.000 He had one narrow path.

00:21:33.000 His narrow path was that Biden completely collapsed in South Carolina, that Bernie won or came close to winning, and that then he could call on Joe Biden to drop out.

00:21:42.000 Because it's true that if you want to win a majority of the delegates, there has to be a consolidation behind one candidate.

00:21:46.000 The problem right now is that Biden just showed signs of life.

00:21:49.000 And not just showed signs of life, he showed serious life in South Carolina.

00:21:53.000 Well, that means that Bloomberg and Biden are now splitting the lane.

00:21:56.000 And so, assume for a second that Bloomberg were not in the race.

00:21:59.000 Presumably, those 195 delegates somewhere in that neighborhood, none of those people are going to go to Bernie.

00:22:04.000 Presumably, nearly all of those people would have gone to Joe Biden.

00:22:07.000 Well, if those delegates had moved over to Joe Biden, guess who your new delegate leader would have been?

00:22:11.000 By a pretty significant margin.

00:22:11.000 Joe Biden.

00:22:13.000 So I think that a lot of what happens on Super Tuesday is dependent on where Bloomberg stands in a lot of the southern states.

00:22:19.000 Because remember, if Bloomberg wins below 15% in those states, those delegates don't go to Bloomberg.

00:22:25.000 Instead, a lot of those delegates kick up to the front runner, Joe Biden.

00:22:29.000 So I think that Biden is actually going to outperform on Super Tuesday.

00:22:32.000 This is my this is my My edgy prediction.

00:22:35.000 I think that Biden is going to overperform on Super Tuesday.

00:22:37.000 I think that South Carolina shows people he's viable.

00:22:40.000 I think he's going to get a lot of endorsements today and early tomorrow.

00:22:43.000 I think that in Southern states, he's absolutely going to clean up.

00:22:46.000 I think in California, he's going, I think he's going to surpass the delegate margin in California necessary to gain some delegates.

00:22:52.000 I think that the Race is going to be pretty close coming out of Super Tuesday.

00:22:56.000 I do not think this is a Bernie Sanders walkover come Super Tuesday.

00:23:02.000 So, in just one second, I'm going to get to some of the actual polling from the various Super Tuesday states, because the polling is pretty sporadic in a lot of these states, but we're going to explain which states are up and how many delegates they have and who is likely to win those states.

00:23:14.000 We're going to get to all of that in just one second.

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00:24:24.000 Okay, so let's go through some of these Super Tuesday states.

00:24:27.000 You have all the data you need.

00:24:28.000 And you can play with these numbers yourself.

00:24:30.000 One of the fun things to do, if you are very bored at work today, is you can go, there are a bunch of delegate counters, calculators, and you can go in and you can sort of estimate what percentage of the vote you think various candidates are going to win in a lot of these states.

00:24:43.000 Okay, so the big prize on Super Tuesday is, of course, California.

00:24:46.000 The problem is that the polls don't close until 8 p.m.

00:24:48.000 Pacific time, and we're not even going to see results in California until very late.

00:24:52.000 So that cuts in favor of Joe Biden.

00:24:53.000 Why?

00:24:54.000 Because that is Bernie's biggest winning state, right?

00:24:56.000 If Bernie does real well in California, we're not going to know until the next day.

00:24:59.000 You're really not going to know it.

00:25:00.000 So that means that if Biden shows a lot of momentum in the other states, then he could get a lot of big headlines out of Super Tuesday night.

00:25:07.000 Because again, the biggest prize on the map is Bernie.

00:25:11.000 For Bernie is California, and California is going to show up really late, like 11 p.m.

00:25:14.000 Eastern is when the polls close.

00:25:16.000 So Latinos are expected to make about 30% of the electorate.

00:25:19.000 Sanders won Latinos overwhelmingly in Nevada.

00:25:22.000 The suggestion is he might run up the score with them in California as well.

00:25:25.000 But it is also necessary to say that in Nevada, everybody is heavily unionized.

00:25:30.000 It is also necessary to say that in Nevada, it's a much smaller state.

00:25:34.000 I mean, the sample size itself is much smaller.

00:25:37.000 So Sanders did lose California to Hillary Clinton in 2016. 0.97

00:25:40.000 He spent a ton of money.

00:25:41.000 He spent about $7 million on ads, according to NPR.

00:25:44.000 Biden has spent no money on California TV ads.

00:25:47.000 He has spent $4,000 on digital ads.

00:25:51.000 But, apparently the early voting was fairly slow.

00:25:54.000 Bloomberg is currently polling below the 15% threshold required to get delegates in all of these contests.

00:26:00.000 Warren is teetering around the delegate threshold percentage, too.

00:26:04.000 The question is whether she gets 15%.

00:26:06.000 Also, there were no exit polls in 2016.

00:26:08.000 Black voters in 2008 in California were only 7% of the electorate, but the California Democratic Party is estimating the black Black Americans make up about 16% of the party in the state of California.

00:26:19.000 So maybe they show up in heavy numbers.

00:26:21.000 So what do the polls say about California?

00:26:23.000 Well, the most recent poll is a poll from Emerson, and it does show Joe Biden surpassing that 15% delegate threshold, which is a big deal for Joe Biden.

00:26:31.000 It's not about Biden winning California.

00:26:33.000 It is about Biden showing up above the 15% delegate threshold because were he to show up above that 15% delegate threshold, Well, then he would win enough delegates to make some serious trouble for Bernie.

00:26:44.000 Bernie needs to run away with California. 0.80

00:26:46.000 He needs to win 300 delegates in California.

00:26:48.000 And if there are three candidates who are above the delegate threshold, and right now that is where Warren is polling, she's also above the delegate threshold in a lot of these states, well, that is a problem for Bernie.

00:26:56.000 There's a CBS YouGov poll that came out just before the South Carolina primaries, and that one only showed Sanders up 31-19 over Biden, and with Warren at 18.

00:27:06.000 So, by the way, Bloomberg was getting 12, and Buttigieg was getting 7 to 9% of the vote in all of these polls, right?

00:27:12.000 So, Buttigieg was getting 7, and that 7 kicks over to Biden.

00:27:15.000 Suddenly, Biden is looking a lot more viable in states like California.

00:27:19.000 So, that is where things stand in California.

00:27:21.000 Bloomberg is running below 15%, but he is still pulling somewhere between 11 and 15%.

00:27:25.000 How many moderate Democrats in California now look at Bloomberg and they go, okay, that guy can't win the nomination, but you know who can?

00:27:30.000 Would be Joe Biden.

00:27:31.000 So, I think that Biden is gonna overperform the polling in California.

00:27:35.000 I think that Biden is going to perform 23 to 25 percent in California, which would be a big win for Biden in Texas.

00:27:42.000 The Democratic primary polling in Texas shows Sanders with a lead in the RealClearPolitics poll average.

00:27:47.000 Again, the latest two polls in Texas, which does have a serious number of delegates, 228 delegates at stake.

00:27:54.000 Polling shows that Sanders is up an average in the RealClearPolitics polling average, about 6%.

00:28:00.000 I don't think Sanders is going to win Texas.

00:28:01.000 I think Biden is going to win Texas.

00:28:03.000 I think that's going to be the big shock of the night, is that I do not think that Sanders is going to pull out Texas.

00:28:08.000 Because the fact is that Texas Democrats are still not as radical as the rest of the Democratic Party across the country.

00:28:15.000 They're radical in Austin, but they're not radical anywhere else.

00:28:18.000 Right now, the Emerson poll shows Sanders with 31 and Biden with 26 and Bloomberg at 16.

00:28:24.000 I don't think Bloomberg is going to show at 16.

00:28:25.000 I don't think Bloomberg is going to show at 13.

00:28:28.000 I don't know that Bloomberg is going to break 10% in Texas.

00:28:31.000 I think the big story of the night is Bloomberg is going to underperform and Biden is going to overperform.

00:28:36.000 And now hold me to my dumb prediction after it turns out I'm wrong about all this.

00:28:40.000 And I would never put my own money on my own betting because I did that in 2016.

00:28:43.000 Didn't work out great for me.

00:28:44.000 But I have a feeling that South Carolina, the media coverage, the fact that Biden's going to get a lot of big endorsements over the next 48 hours, I think that means that you're going to see Bloomberg start to collapse.

00:28:53.000 Because again, the reason that Bloomberg was almost a placeholder, when people are polled about Bloomberg, It's a placeholder for Biden.

00:29:00.000 It was people saying, okay, well, it was more referendum on Biden than it was on Bloomberg.

00:29:03.000 So if people thought that Biden was gonna collapse, they said, I'm gonna vote for Bloomberg.

00:29:06.000 If they think that Biden is going to not collapse, then they say, I'm gonna vote for Biden.

00:29:09.000 So all of these polls are not taking into account South Carolina.

00:29:13.000 And the ones that are taking into account South Carolina are showing a significant bump for Joe Biden, right?

00:29:18.000 That Emerson poll, the ones that came out, they were done on Saturday and then through Sunday.

00:29:23.000 Those polls are showing Biden significantly outperforming the other polls.

00:29:26.000 And that's not taking into account his South Carolina victory, except for one day of the poll.

00:29:30.000 That Emerson poll.

00:29:32.000 That's showing Biden up at 26%, again, to Sanders' 31.

00:29:36.000 Even the CBS News YouGov poll in Texas shows Sanders up 30 to 26 over Biden.

00:29:40.000 But what about three days of great coverage for Joe Biden?

00:29:43.000 What about three days of Joe-mentum coverage for Joe Biden?

00:29:47.000 I think Biden's gonna pull out Texas.

00:29:48.000 I think that Biden is gonna overperform in Texas, which is real trouble for Bernie Sanders.

00:29:52.000 Then you get to North Carolina.

00:29:54.000 North Carolina, The problem for Bernie in North Carolina is that black voters represent about a third of the electorate.

00:30:02.000 61% of voters in North Carolina are 45 and older.

00:30:06.000 So both groups do favor Biden.

00:30:08.000 The percentages of both are lower in North Carolina than in South Carolina.

00:30:13.000 But right now, the polling in North Carolina is not reflective of reality.

00:30:17.000 It just isn't.

00:30:18.000 Okay, the polling in North Carolina right now shows Biden up only four points on Sanders, according to East Carolina U. That came out before the South Carolina results.

00:30:26.000 That's before the South Carolina results.

00:30:27.000 Remember, in the polling averages, For South Carolina, Biden was only winning about 35-40% of the vote.

00:30:33.000 He showed 48% of the vote in South Carolina.

00:30:35.000 Significantly outperformed.

00:30:37.000 He outperformed the 538 estimates by 8 percentage points in South Carolina.

00:30:41.000 I think you're going to see the same thing in North Carolina.

00:30:42.000 I think you're going to see Biden walk all over Sanders in North Carolina.

00:30:45.000 I think you're going to see that Bloomberg vote collapse.

00:30:47.000 I think you're going to see Biden easily surpass 30% in North Carolina.

00:30:51.000 I think it's going to be more like 35% in North Carolina.

00:30:54.000 When it comes to Massachusetts, I think Sanders is going to win Massachusetts walking away.

00:30:57.000 I do not think it's going to be that close.

00:30:58.000 Right now, the polls show Sanders and Warren very close in Massachusetts, which is another big prize.

00:31:03.000 I think Sanders is going to do much better because I think that the Bernie bros are going to really mobilize there.

00:31:08.000 Not only are they really going to mobilize, I think that the Warren crowd is going to realize that she has no shot at the nomination.

00:31:13.000 So while she may do okay, I don't think that she is going to be competitive with Bernie.

00:31:17.000 I think that Bernie takes that state My five points.

00:31:21.000 And then I think you move on to Minnesota, which is another delegate-heavy state.

00:31:24.000 There, I think that Bernie wins, but narrowly.

00:31:28.000 I think that Klobuchar does show in Minnesota she is very popular in her home state in a way that Elizabeth Warren isn't.

00:31:33.000 Elizabeth Warren, dirty little secret. 0.73

00:31:35.000 Elizabeth Warren ain't that popular in Massachusetts, at least not more popular than any normal Democrat. 1.00

00:31:39.000 It's not like she's wildly more popular than whatever placeholder Democrat had held that Senate seat before.

00:31:44.000 And Virginia is another state with a heavy black population.

00:31:49.000 Virginia has 99 delegates at stake.

00:31:53.000 Okay, that probably is true because Bernie does not do particularly well.

00:31:55.000 There are not a lot of good polls out of Virginia.

00:31:56.000 The Virginia polling is very weak right now.

00:31:58.000 Over the age of 40.

00:31:59.000 Okay, that probably is true because Bernie does not do particularly well.

00:32:03.000 There are not a lot of good polls out of Virginia.

00:32:05.000 The Virginia polling is very weak right now.

00:32:08.000 All we know in Virginia is that the Democrat, let's see, the latest Democrat polls from Virginia had Sanders and Bloomberg and Biden basically within spitting distance of one another.

00:32:20.000 That was conducted before Bloomberg's first debate in Las Vegas and before Joe Biden won South Carolina.

00:32:24.000 So I think that you're going to, Hillary Clinton won two thirds of white women in Virginia and she ran all over Bernie in Virginia.

00:32:32.000 So I think that Biden is going to, I think if you had to ballpark this thing, assume that Biden is going to perform very much like Hillary Clinton did in 2016.

00:32:40.000 Count Super Tuesday, she ran up a delegate lead in 2016.

00:32:43.000 I think that Biden is going to underperform Hillary in places like California and New York and Massachusetts, but I think that he is going to perform almost exactly like Hillary in a lot of these southern states.

00:32:54.000 Colorado is a heavily Latino state.

00:32:58.000 About 67 delegates at stake in Colorado.

00:33:02.000 Again, not fantastic polling from a lot of these states.

00:33:07.000 Colorado's another one where there's just not that great polling.

00:33:11.000 But with that said, is it plausible that it's competitive in some place like Colorado?

00:33:20.000 Yeah, absolutely.

00:33:21.000 It's certainly plausible.

00:33:25.000 Bottom line is that it is a mess right now, but that mess is not necessarily cutting in Bernie's favor.

00:33:33.000 So all the talk last week was that Bernie was going to run away with this thing in very short order.

00:33:38.000 I'm not seeing a lot of evidence that that's going to happen.

00:33:40.000 I think that this is, I think Biden's going to overperform.

00:33:42.000 I think that Bernie's going to perform exactly like he thought.

00:33:44.000 I think Bloomberg is going to be the real story.

00:33:46.000 I think Bloomberg is going to collapse.

00:33:47.000 I think contact between voters and Bloomberg is toxic for Bloomberg.

00:33:51.000 By the way, I'm not mentioning Tennessee, where I think Biden's really going to run up the score.

00:33:55.000 I'm not mentioning Alabama, where I think Biden's really going to run up the score.

00:33:58.000 Oklahoma, where I think Biden is going to run up the score.

00:34:01.000 Arkansas, where he's going to run up the score.

00:34:04.000 Utah, I think that you're going to see Sanders win.

00:34:08.000 Maine, you're going to see Sanders win.

00:34:09.000 Vermont, you're going to see Sanders win.

00:34:11.000 But it is not implausible to believe that Joe Biden walks away from Super Tuesday if he doesn't have a delegate lead because of California.

00:34:18.000 At the very least, he is very, very close after Super Tuesday.

00:34:21.000 And then we move on to a bunch of states that are very, very conducive for the current Former Democratic Vice President, right?

00:34:29.000 We move into the rest of the primary calendar looks a lot better for Joe Biden than it does for Bernie Sanders.

00:34:36.000 I'm looking at the presidential election calendar right now.

00:34:39.000 So here's how it goes after Super Tuesday.

00:34:40.000 March 10th, you get Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, Washington.

00:34:44.000 Washington is good for Bernie.

00:34:45.000 North Dakota is probably good for Bernie.

00:34:47.000 Idaho is probably good for Bernie. 0.56

00:34:48.000 Michigan, probably good for Bernie, maybe not.

00:34:52.000 That could be Biden territory.

00:34:54.000 Mississippi and Missouri, very, very good for Joe Biden.

00:34:57.000 And then you move on to March 17th, Arizona, which could be good for Bernie, but Florida, which is awful for Bernie, Ohio, which is probably not great for Bernie, and Illinois, which is probably not great for Bernie, because Chicago's in Illinois, right?

00:35:10.000 So the fact is that this race starts as the time goes on, and as Joe Biden remains competitive, this race starts to tilt slowly toward Joe Biden and away from Bernie Sanders.

00:35:22.000 So there's a reason 538's got the open convention possibility at a 65%.

00:35:28.000 And by the way, in terms of their majority of delegates, they're showing Bernie at just a 21% to get it, and a 14% for Joe Biden.

00:35:36.000 So basically, they're running pretty close to even.

00:35:38.000 In their average number of delegates, they expect to be one.

00:35:41.000 Again, Bernie Sanders, 16-12.

00:35:43.000 Biden, 14-49.

00:35:46.000 They're expecting Bloomberg to win 591.

00:35:47.000 I think that's an overestimate of Bloomberg.

00:35:49.000 I think Bloomberg is gonna fall apart.

00:35:51.000 I think Bloomberg and I think the ads that Bloomberg is taking out are largely going to be directed not against Joe Biden.

00:35:57.000 They're going to be directed against Bernie Sanders.

00:35:59.000 So I would suspect that at least 200 of the delegates that are being allocated to Bloomberg right now are instead going to cut up to Joe Biden.

00:36:06.000 Quite plausible that Biden is your leader in the clubhouse, that he wins a plurality of delegates.

00:36:10.000 That is the best-case scenario for the Democrats, by the way.

00:36:13.000 The best-case scenario for the Democrats is that Biden has a plurality of the delegates going into the convention.

00:36:17.000 That is best-case scenario.

00:36:18.000 And it's not implausible.

00:36:20.000 We're going to know so much more after tomorrow night.

00:36:20.000 It's not implausible.

00:36:23.000 After Super Tuesday.

00:36:24.000 But like I say, this whole thing has been about momentum.

00:36:26.000 Bernie has not been able to run up the score, except in Nevada.

00:36:29.000 Nevada is the only state where he ran up the score.

00:36:30.000 In Iowa, he underperformed.

00:36:32.000 In New Hampshire, he underperformed.

00:36:33.000 He lost to Pete Buttigieg in Iowa.

00:36:34.000 He barely beat Pete Buttigieg in New Hampshire, and Pete Buttigieg is out of the race.

00:36:38.000 Now that you have an actual Democratic candidate in Joe Biden, who has actual minority support and older voter support, I'm not— I said two weeks ago, I thought that Bernie was unstoppable.

00:36:50.000 That was before South Carolina.

00:36:51.000 South Carolina made an awful lot of difference.

00:36:53.000 And tomorrow night, we are going to find out just how much of a difference all of that made.

00:36:57.000 Okay, in just a second, we're going to get to Bernie Sanders, who seems to be already sort of doing the whiny routine, which is kind of interesting.

00:37:05.000 Like, he's preemptively whiny.

00:37:06.000 He's not acting like a frontrunner.

00:37:07.000 Bernie Sanders is comfortable being the guy in second place, because he can attack everybody else.

00:37:11.000 Bernie, as the frontrunner, looks He looks fragile.

00:37:14.000 He looks radical.

00:37:15.000 He looks like somebody you don't want as your frontrunner.

00:37:17.000 He's the person who stands outside the party and criticizes.

00:37:20.000 In a second, we're going to get to that.

00:37:21.000 But first, Super Tuesday has come upon us.

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00:38:05.000 Join us for special events like tomorrow's Super Tuesday episode.

00:38:09.000 of Daily Wire backstage.

00:38:10.000 We'll be breaking down and covering all of the Super Tuesday election updates in real time.

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00:38:50.000 Also, We'd like to hear from you.

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00:39:07.000 We'll analyze the results on Daily Wire backstage this Tuesday.

00:39:10.000 You are listening to the largest, fastest growing conservative podcast and radio show in the nation.

00:39:14.000 All righty.

00:39:21.000 So Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, continues to be radical.

00:39:23.000 He continues to be off-putting.

00:39:24.000 And his people are basically now in full-on wine mode because they think that everybody is biased against Bernie. 1.00

00:39:31.000 Well, maybe people just don't like Bernie outside of sort of the core Bernie bros, because number one, the Bernie bros are kind of jerks, and second, Bernie's a nut. 0.99

00:39:38.000 I mean, like a full-on nut. 0.97

00:39:41.000 So, Bernie Sanders, one of his advisors is a guy named Mo Rocha, and he came out yesterday, he said, it's not just MSNBC biased against us, everyone is biased against us. 0.98

00:39:50.000 Okay, guys, it's not called a bias against you when people finally start asking basic, basic questions about how garbage your candidate is. 0.76

00:39:58.000 It was bias for years when they didn't ask those questions.

00:40:01.000 Here was Chuck Rocha, the Bernie 2020 senior advisor on CNN, complaining that everybody's mean to Bernie.

00:40:07.000 Stop being mean to Bernie, guys!

00:40:09.000 What is the heart of the issue that's been going back months?

00:40:12.000 For several months now, the Sanders campaign has been charging MSNBC with bias.

00:40:18.000 Well, look, I don't think it's just MSNBC.

00:40:20.000 We've won the first three contests.

00:40:22.000 And if you're watching certain networks, you would think we've been behind in every one because we get very little coverage.

00:40:28.000 I just want to make sure that the American people are finding out all they can find out about our movement, about our people, because the people in the movement and raising $50 million, $60 million from all these people are news.

00:40:38.000 And we should be talking about changing democracy in the way we fund campaigns.

00:40:41.000 OK, so first of all, I'm pretty sure everybody was talking about Bernie, and that was his big problem.

00:40:45.000 He had the same problem that Bloomberg had, which was that he was unexamined, then he was examined, and people were like, ah, don't really like this very much. 1.00

00:40:52.000 Bernie continues to be a radical idiot. 0.97

00:40:55.000 Over the weekend, he was interviewed and again ripped into AIPAC because he's a very proud you guys. 1.00

00:41:00.000 I mean, I'm so sick of hearing about how proud a Jew the guy is when he repeats basic anti-Semitic nostrums.

00:41:06.000 And it's like, okay, because he was born into a Jewish family, even though he hangs out with blatant anti-Semites all the time.

00:41:11.000 Like if this came out of Rashida Tlaib or Ilhan Omar's mouth, we'd all recognize exactly what it is.

00:41:15.000 But because Bernie is saying it, we have to pretend it isn't what it is. 1.00

00:41:17.000 Here's Bernie Sanders being an idiot. 1.00

00:41:21.000 Do you see a political cost in taking on the pro-Israel lobby in this way? 1.00

00:41:28.000 I mean, they have a lot of money, they have a lot of power.

00:41:28.000 Yeah, I do.

00:41:30.000 Look, I'm Jewish, and I'm very proud of my Jewish heritage.

00:41:34.000 As a kid, I spent time in Israel.

00:41:36.000 I am not anti-Israel.

00:41:38.000 I will do everything I can to protect the independence and the security and the freedom of the Israeli people.

00:41:44.000 But what we need in this country is a foreign policy that not only protects Israel, but deals with the suffering of the Palestinian people as well.

00:41:54.000 First of all, he sounds terrible.

00:41:55.000 Second of all, when he's out there ranting about the pro-Israel lobby and how powerful it is, really, because Nancy Pelosi refused to even condemn Rashid Tlaib and Ilhan Omar and puts them on covers of magazines.

00:42:05.000 By the way, I never hear about how powerful the pro-Italy lobby is or the pro-Britain lobby is in the United States.

00:42:12.000 Again, this sort of stuff has been sort of stock in trade of left-wing anti-Semitism for a very long time.

00:42:17.000 And the fact that Bernie traffics in it and then claims that he is a proud Jew because he once spent some time on a kibbutz when he was 17 back in 1322 is more than irrelevant to me.

00:42:28.000 But bottom line is, the more people see of Bernie, even inside the Democratic Party, the more that they are wary of Bernie as the nominee, as well they should be.

00:42:35.000 Okay, meanwhile, President Trump is having trouble with the economy.

00:42:39.000 Obviously, the Dow Jones Industrial Average seems to have stabilized a little bit today.

00:42:43.000 Basically, it's seeking a floor.

00:42:45.000 It jumped as of this morning as people start to become a little bit more confident that coronavirus isn't going to be the be-all, end-all.

00:42:51.000 Uncertainty is what led to that drop in the stock market last week, that 4,000 point stock market drop.

00:42:57.000 Now everything is being priced in.

00:42:58.000 The fact that there are production delays, the less information that's out there, the more people are scared.

00:43:02.000 The more people are scared, the more they sell and the more they invest in bonds.

00:43:05.000 So all of the talk about how millions of people will die due to coronavirus, the fact that the economic supply chains were disrupted, all of that was being priced into the stock market.

00:43:13.000 Now it seems like the stock market is finding a bottom.

00:43:16.000 And when I mean that it's finding a bottom, it's kind of sort of a stable Is coronavirus a real crisis at this point?

00:43:21.000 The answer is probably not.

00:43:22.000 earnings expectations for the year and don't expect that there's going to be any more massive and significant shocks to the economy.

00:43:28.000 So all of that was getting priced in very quickly last week as people were sort of thinking worst case scenario.

00:43:32.000 Is coronavirus a real crisis at this point?

00:43:37.000 The answer is probably not.

00:43:38.000 The reason that I say probably not is because we now have some more information about exactly what coronavirus is, what it does and what the risk factors are The New York Times has quite a good piece about this, talking about sort of the facts on coronavirus by Denise Grady, comparing it with the flu.

00:43:52.000 They say coronavirus is deadlier than the flu so far.

00:43:55.000 On average, seasonal flu strains kill about 0.1% of people who become infected.

00:44:00.000 The 1918 Spanish flu had about a 2% fatality rate, and it was extremely contagious.

00:44:05.000 Early estimates of the coronavirus death rate from Wuhan had been around 2%, but there was a new report on 1,100 cases from many parts of China published on Friday in the New England Journal of Medicine, and it finds a 1.4% coronavirus death rate.

00:44:17.000 And, as the New York Times points out, the coronavirus death rate may be even lower if, as most experts suspect, there are mild or symptom-free cases that have not been detected.

00:44:25.000 Also, China's been lying about this thing for months.

00:44:28.000 So the bad news is that it may be incredibly transmissible.

00:44:31.000 The good news is that if it's incredibly transmissible and not all that many people are dying, then your death rate goes down.

00:44:36.000 So as the denominator goes up, meaning the number of people infected, and the numerator stays stable, meaning the number of people who die, the death rate goes down.

00:44:44.000 The true death rate, according to the New York Times, could be similar to that of a severe seasonal flu, well below 1%.

00:44:49.000 That's according to an editorial published in the journal by Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. H. Clifford Lane of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, as well as Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Center for Disease Control.

00:45:01.000 Even MSNBC's medical experts are saying, average Americans should not be panicked about this thing.

00:45:06.000 It is not going to wipe out vast portions of the American population.

00:45:10.000 Here is MSNBC's medical expert, I believe his name is Joe Fair, this is clip 19.

00:45:14.000 Now with the data we have, and I emphasize the data that we have, just because we haven't rolled out broad testing nationally yet, your average individual American doesn't need to be that concerned right now of catching this virus.

00:45:27.000 However, community-based transmission in one state means that there is probably community-based transmission in other states.

00:45:34.000 Once we roll out that testing and lower the criteria for being tested for COVID-19, we're probably going to see a lot more cases than we thought were here previously.

00:45:43.000 Now again, he's saying there are a lot more cases than we're here, but that means that they've been here for a while and nobody's been noticing them because we don't have vast swaths of the population that have been dying out.

00:45:50.000 We have two coronavirus deaths total in the United States.

00:45:53.000 Apparently it was going undetected for weeks on end in Washington State.

00:45:57.000 Apparently it's already been here for a while and nobody's really noticed it, which doesn't suggest that this is the Black Plague.

00:46:02.000 Also, again, because China's been so non-transparent, that means that the figures on coronavirus seem to have been exaggerated.

00:46:07.000 So, for example, the New York Times reports each person with the coronavirus appears to infect 2.2 other people on average, but that figure is skewed by the fact that the epidemic was not managed well in Wuhan, so everybody was infecting each other.

00:46:17.000 And also on that Diamond Princess cruise, Everybody was infecting each other because they were quarantined together, right?

00:46:22.000 Which means that everybody is in contact with each other regularly who has the flu.

00:46:26.000 The figure for the seasonal flu is about 1.3.

00:46:28.000 The reproduction number for the flu of 1918 was about the same as that of the new coronavirus, but that was before modern treatments and vaccines were both available.

00:46:36.000 Now, there are no vaccines for this virus yet, but those are being developed as we speak.

00:46:40.000 They're figuring within 12 to 18 months, there will be a vaccine for coronavirus that at least lessens the impact of coronavirus.

00:46:48.000 And again, they're sort of expecting this to become just another strain of seasonal flu.

00:46:51.000 Here is the best news, honestly, about coronavirus, is that coronavirus and flu It mostly affects people who are older than 65.

00:46:57.000 So that's obviously not great news, but the fact is that it's not affecting people who are young and healthy.

00:47:02.000 The stuff that would be truly scary is if young and healthy people were dying off in vast numbers from the flu.

00:47:06.000 Coronavirus seems to be targeting and killing people who are, or at least affecting people disproportionately.

00:47:12.000 Who have a secondary illness, people who already have some sort of lung disease, people who already have pneumonia, right?

00:47:17.000 It's killing off a lot of people who are in that particular age group, but apparently, it is not actually having a significant impact on children, particularly very young ones, which is, honestly, for me, I have two kids under the age of six.

00:47:29.000 That's good news for me, especially because kids constantly have their hands in their mouths, they go to these germ factories where they're called schools, where they're constantly infecting each other.

00:47:37.000 Those cases tend to be, Extremely mild.

00:47:40.000 So, the Trump administration, correctly, is saying, we're handling this thing, like, please do not incite a panic.

00:47:48.000 President Trump came out, he said, listen, we've taken aggressive action against this thing, and any attempt to downplay that aggressive action is just a lie.

00:47:55.000 Since the early stages of the foreign outbreak, my administration has taken the most aggressive action in modern history to confront the spread of this disease. 1.00

00:48:07.000 We move very early.

00:48:08.000 That was one of the decisions we made that really turned out to be a lifesaver in a sense.

00:48:16.000 Big lifesaver.

00:48:18.000 On January 31st, I imposed travel restrictions on foreign nations who had, and anybody that had been to China, or people coming out of China.

00:48:32.000 Hey, this is all true, obviously.

00:48:33.000 One of the things that is truly impressive about the media and the Democrats is their reaction to all of this.

00:48:39.000 Maybe I'll save that for a thing that I hate.

00:48:42.000 But okay, let's do a quick thing I like and then we'll get to some things that I hate.

00:48:45.000 So things that I like today.

00:48:46.000 So there's a great science fiction book recommended to me by producer Nick, who has time to read because we're not apparently Burdening him enough with his work.

00:48:54.000 He plays the banjo and he whittles things and he reads science fiction novels, but that means that he sometimes has good picks in terms of his literary references.

00:49:01.000 Isaac Asimov's The End of Eternity.

00:49:03.000 It's a really good time travel novel that fewer people know about now than they probably should.

00:49:09.000 Everybody sort of knows the Foundation Trilogy, but The End of Eternity, which I'd never heard of, is really quite terrific.

00:49:13.000 It's a really well thought out, well plotted take on, let's say in the future there are a group of people who could come back and change the past and sort of change the past to avoid great pandemics and great nuclear explosions and avoid all of the worst things.

00:49:25.000 Would that be a good thing or a bad thing?

00:49:27.000 The book is Isaac Asimov's The End of Eternity and worth the read.

00:49:30.000 Okay, time for a big thing that I hate.

00:49:36.000 Okay, so let's talk about the Democratic response to the coronavirus thing.

00:49:40.000 So, the Democratic response to the coronavirus thing has been absolutely insane.

00:49:43.000 So, as we see, President Trump has said, listen, we've been handling this thing.

00:49:46.000 Correct.

00:49:47.000 And then President Trump came out, he said, I'm asking the media not to incite a panic.

00:49:50.000 Right, we should not be inciting a panic here.

00:49:52.000 This, of course, is exactly right.

00:49:53.000 As well, the media overplaying the risks of coronavirus in an irresponsible way, suggesting that we are on the verge of a great pandemic that's going to kill tens of millions of Americans, that the Trump administration is botching it, is politically driven.

00:50:03.000 Here's Trump saying that, and he's correct. 0.99

00:50:06.000 I'd like to just ask and caution that the media, we would respectfully ask the media and politicians and everybody else involved not do anything to incite a panic because there's no reason to panic at all.

00:50:22.000 This is something that is being handled professionally.

00:50:25.000 Yeah, that's exactly right.

00:50:26.000 Well, Dr. Anthony Fauci, who's the head of the National Institute of Health, there were accusations last week that because this operation was being run through Mike Pence, the PR operation was being run through the Vice President's office, which is just trying to consolidate information so you don't have vast swaths of misinformation running around, Fauci said, listen, I'm not being muzzled.

00:50:43.000 The media tried to claim that he was being muzzled.

00:50:44.000 He's like, I'm not being muzzled.

00:50:45.000 What the hell are you talking about?

00:50:47.000 Let me clarify it. 0.76

00:50:49.000 I have never been muzzled, ever, and I've been doing this since the administration of Ronald Reagan.

00:50:54.000 I'm not being muzzled by this administration.

00:50:56.000 What happened, which was misinterpreted, is that we were set up to go on some shows, and when the vice president took over, we said, Regroup and figure out how we're going to be communicating.

00:51:09.000 So I had to just stand down on a couple of shows and resubmit for clearance.

00:51:14.000 And when I resubmitted for clearance, I got cleared.

00:51:17.000 So I have not been muzzled at all.

00:51:19.000 That was a real misrepresentation of what happened.

00:51:22.000 Okay, Fauci served under President Obama as well.

00:51:24.000 He served under multiple administrations.

00:51:26.000 So he's saying, listen, we're not hiding any information here.

00:51:28.000 Alex Azar, the Health and Human Services Secretary, says it's pretty obvious here that people are overreacting and treating this as a massive crisis when it is not.

00:51:35.000 It is a crisis for the factory production in China.

00:51:37.000 It is not a crisis for the average American.

00:51:39.000 You're seeing people who are stocking up on masks.

00:51:41.000 By the way, here is the basic rule about masks.

00:51:43.000 Masks, medical masks, are designed to prevent people from coughing in your face, for example.

00:51:48.000 But the reality is that unless you have a high probability of being coughed on by someone with coronavirus, it's not going to serve you well.

00:51:55.000 So you really should be allowing the medical professionals who are going to be treating people who come in with symptoms to have the medical masks at this point.

00:52:01.000 You want to handle coronavirus in your own life?

00:52:03.000 Wash your hands a lot better.

00:52:04.000 Don't touch your face a lot.

00:52:06.000 That's pretty much all you can do.

00:52:08.000 And again, the symptoms of coronavirus, particularly for people who are young and healthy, are not severe.

00:52:12.000 What you're seeing is that it's really bad for like old age homes, nursing homes, that sort of thing.

00:52:16.000 Here's Alex Azar saying people are overreacting.

00:52:19.000 We are trying to give the American people all the information we have, when we have it, so they don't think there's secret information they're not getting.

00:52:27.000 That at least helps.

00:52:28.000 We say what uncertainties we've got, and as we resolve them, we try to clarify.

00:52:32.000 You think some people are overreacting?

00:52:34.000 Yes, absolutely.

00:52:35.000 If people going out and buying face masks, that's not necessary.

00:52:38.000 In fact, we need those masks for the people who should be using them, which are healthcare workers taking care of patients.

00:52:44.000 Okay, he's right that on an individual level, the masks are not going to help you.

00:52:48.000 They may help you marginally, but for healthcare workers, they do make a very large difference.

00:52:52.000 Bottom line is that everybody who actually understands the issue, right, left, and center, is saying, this is not yet a crisis.

00:52:57.000 It doesn't look like it's going to become a crisis.

00:52:59.000 Mike Pence says that, right?

00:53:00.000 Mike Pence says the risk remains low for the average American, which is true.

00:53:03.000 I mean, just like the risk of dying by flu remains fairly low for the average American.

00:53:07.000 Here's Mike Pence.

00:53:09.000 The American people should know the risk for the average American remains low.

00:53:14.000 And they can be confident.

00:53:16.000 And after three days leading the president's effort on the coronavirus, I'm more confident than ever that we are bringing a whole of government approach.

00:53:26.000 The president has directed the full resources of the federal government and talking with governors around the country, particularly in states where we brought people back home.

00:53:35.000 So Pence says all of that, and then he says the same thing on Face the Nation with Chuck Todd, or Meet the Press with Chuck Todd.

00:53:42.000 And Chuck Todd then proceeds to ask whether he's gaslighting him.

00:53:47.000 The attitude of the media and the Democrats, as we'll see, is that the Trump administration, which, again, has not mishandled this.

00:53:52.000 There's no evidence they've mishandled this.

00:53:54.000 There is no evidence at this point that this thing is going to become a major crisis inside America's borders.

00:53:58.000 We have very good public health facilities in the United States.

00:54:02.000 We are handling this thing.

00:54:03.000 It doesn't matter.

00:54:04.000 The media are proclaiming that this is a crisis.

00:54:05.000 Here's Chuck Todd asking if the American people are being gaslit after being informed, right, after the American people are informed by doctors on the left, on the right, on MSNBC, right, by Fauci, who is the guy who's supposedly being muzzled.

00:54:17.000 And nobody's being muzzled.

00:54:18.000 The information is out there that we're handling.

00:54:19.000 Here's Chuck Todd asking Mike Pence if we're being gaslit about coronavirus.

00:54:23.000 What facts are there that Democrats are doing this?

00:54:25.000 Seems like people are asking questions and they're concerned about the virus.

00:54:29.000 This implies some sort of political motivation, which is kind of gross.

00:54:32.000 Well, I will tell you, there's been a lot of irresponsible rhetoric among Democrats and commentators.

00:54:38.000 Who is this?

00:54:38.000 Who?

00:54:39.000 On the left.

00:54:39.000 Name some names, sir.

00:54:40.000 Because this is just, it just feels like gaslighting.

00:54:43.000 Please, name some names.

00:54:44.000 We're all big.

00:54:45.000 We're all big people here.

00:54:46.000 Name some names.

00:54:47.000 There was a column in the New York Times by a prominent liberal journalist that said we should rename it the Trump virus.

00:54:54.000 Okay, does that apply to all people?

00:54:57.000 So that the president would be blamed.

00:54:59.000 Chuck, this virus began in China.

00:55:02.000 Okay, well, listen to Chuck Todd there.

00:55:03.000 You're gaslighting me.

00:55:04.000 You're gaslighting me.

00:55:05.000 Nobody has said this thing, so Pence then gives him a name.

00:55:07.000 And then he's like, but that's not everybody.

00:55:09.000 That's not everybody.

00:55:10.000 Okay, I'm going to give you some names.

00:55:12.000 You ready?

00:55:12.000 Here are some names of people who have been completely gaslighting the American public about the Trump virus and how this is all Trump's fault.

00:55:18.000 Okay, Elizabeth Warren.

00:55:20.000 Perfect example.

00:55:21.000 So Elizabeth Warren comes out yesterday, she says, I can't think of a worse person in charge of this thing than Mike Pence.

00:55:27.000 The worst person you could imagine being in charge of this thing is Mike Pence.

00:55:29.000 Here is Elizabeth Warren, desperate for attention with the crazy eyes and everything over on MSNBC. 1.00

00:55:34.000 Let me just say that the Vice President Pence, he is the wrong person to be leading this.

00:55:41.000 He is actually the one guy around who has experience in dealing with a virus that gets out of control, only he's the guy who went in exactly the wrong direction.

00:55:53.000 He paid more attention to politics than he did to science, and that really created a health crisis in his state of Indiana.

00:56:02.000 I cannot thank Of a worst person to put in charge of dealing with this coronavirus.

00:56:08.000 So it's a disaster, right?

00:56:09.000 It's a disaster because we're putting... And then you have Chris Hayes frowning at it.

00:56:09.000 It's all a disaster.

00:56:12.000 Okay, what did Mike Pence do that was so bad?

00:56:14.000 He wasn't in favor of needle exchanges for HIV.

00:56:17.000 Okay, that is a very controversial public policy.

00:56:19.000 The federal government should be facilitating intravenous drug use.

00:56:22.000 Okay, that is a very controversial policy that the taxpayer should be picking up the cost of people shooting heroin into their veins.

00:56:30.000 Okay, that's pretty wild stuff.

00:56:32.000 Okay, and then Elizabeth Warren had another take. 1.00

00:56:33.000 If that take wasn't enough, she then tweeted out a picture.

00:56:36.000 So Mike Pence tweeted out a picture.

00:56:38.000 Today we had a very productive meeting of the White House Coronavirus Task Force in the Situation Room.

00:56:42.000 We placed additional travel restrictions on Iran, and we are increasing the travel advisory to level four, urging Americans not to travel to specific regions in Italy and South Korea.

00:56:50.000 Okay, and it's basically a meeting of the cabinet.

00:56:52.000 You can see various members of the cabinet there, including, by the way, Ben Carson, as well as a couple other figures here who are not white people.

00:57:02.000 But why would that possibly matter?

00:57:03.000 Who cares?

00:57:04.000 This is a coronavirus task meeting.

00:57:06.000 This is about trying to figure out how to stop coronavirus.

00:57:08.000 Elizabeth Warren tweets out, we're facing both a public health crisis and a potential economic crisis.

00:57:12.000 We urgently need top experts at the table in public health and medicine, many of whom are women.

00:57:17.000 This isn't it.

00:57:18.000 Many of whom are women? 0.88

00:57:19.000 How about you name some of the people who should be in the room who aren't in the room? 0.99

00:57:23.000 See, my first reaction when I'm thinking Task Force for Coronavirus isn't, I wonder how many people have vaginas handling this thing. 1.00

00:57:29.000 Like, that really is not even on my list, it turns out. 0.94

00:57:32.000 I don't care.

00:57:33.000 I want the people who are going to help stop coronavirus.

00:57:35.000 I love that Elizabeth Warren's first take is, well, you know, that's a lot of white guys. 0.99

00:57:39.000 That's a lot of men. 0.99

00:57:40.000 A lot of penises in that room talking about coronavirus. 0.99

00:57:43.000 Is there a special female access to knowledge with regard to coronavirus? 1.00

00:57:48.000 Is there a specific person who was barred because of gender from this room?

00:57:51.000 Like a lady came in and she was like, oh, well, you know.

00:57:54.000 Some woman came in, she's like, I'm the expert, the world expert on coronavirus. 1.00

00:57:58.000 And suddenly Pence is like, I can't be in a room alone with you because mommy says no, my wife says no, so I'm sorry, we're going to have to deal with coronavirus on our own.

00:58:04.000 Like, what the hell is she talking about?

00:58:06.000 But Chuck Todd says it's gaslighting to point out that Democrats are doing this routine. 0.75

00:58:09.000 Okay, another example.

00:58:10.000 So President Trump did a rally.

00:58:12.000 At the rally, he points out that the Democrats are hoaxing the American people about the Trump administration blowing coronavirus.

00:58:18.000 He doesn't say coronavirus itself is a hoax.

00:58:20.000 He doesn't say that coronavirus itself is non-threatening.

00:58:23.000 He says the Democrats are lying to you about the Trump administration mishandling this thing, and that the Democrats are lying to you that you're going to die from coronavirus and that we're all at tremendous, tremendous risk from coronavirus.

00:58:32.000 The data aren't there to support that.

00:58:33.000 Here is President Trump saying that, and then we'll see the Democrats lying about this, and then you'll see Chuck Todd lying about the Democrats lying about this.

00:58:41.000 Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus.

00:58:47.000 You know that, right?

00:58:48.000 Coronavirus.

00:58:51.000 They're politicizing it.

00:58:52.000 They tried anything.

00:58:53.000 They tried it over and over.

00:58:55.000 They've been doing it since you got in.

00:58:57.000 It's all turning.

00:58:58.000 They lost.

00:58:59.000 It's all turning.

00:59:00.000 Think of it.

00:59:01.000 Think of it.

00:59:02.000 And this is their new hoax.

00:59:05.000 Okay, I mean, that's just, so he says, what's the new hoax?

00:59:08.000 The new hoax is that Democrats are making this into a big issue, that we blew it, right?

00:59:12.000 Okay, and he's right about, so Democrats did that, right?

00:59:14.000 Then Biden comes out and he falsely claims that Trump called coronavirus itself a hoax. 0.97

00:59:19.000 Here's Joe Biden just completely misreading Trump's statements in the dumbest possible way.

00:59:24.000 I don't want to talk down the possibility of us being able to do this well, but, you know, the idea that Donald Trump said just several days ago this was a democratic hoax, what in God's name is he talking about? 0.94

00:59:36.000 What in God's name is he talking about?

00:59:39.000 Has he no shame?

00:59:40.000 We're in a situation where, and I respect Vice President Pence and him being put in charge, but we should be hearing from the scientists.

00:59:51.000 Trump did not call coronavirus a hoax!

00:59:53.000 Bloomberg then did the same thing, right?

00:59:54.000 Bloomberg comes out, he says, Trump called coronavirus a hoax.

00:59:57.000 He didn't.

00:59:57.000 He said that you guys are lying about the impact of coronavirus and that you are lying that the Trump administration is blowing it.

01:00:03.000 And then the media don't ask a follow-up?

01:00:04.000 Like, where's the follow-up, guys?

01:00:06.000 By the way, Facebook actually fact-checked Michael Bloomberg's statements on this, and even Facebook was like, yeah, that's not true.

01:00:14.000 They didn't take down Bloomberg's ad over it, because they don't take down ads on the basis of fact-checking, which is the correct policy.

01:00:19.000 But even they were like, this is not right.

01:00:22.000 Trump didn't call coronavirus a hoax.

01:00:23.000 He just said that you guys are lying about it.

01:00:25.000 Here's Bloomberg lying about it.

01:00:26.000 I find it incomprehensible that the president would do something as inane as calling it a hoax, which he did last night in South Carolina.

01:00:36.000 He said that the Democrats making so much of it is a democratic hoax, not that the virus was a hoax.

01:00:42.000 This is up to the scientists and the doctors as to whether there is a problem.

01:00:48.000 It's unbelievable.

01:00:49.000 It's unbelievable.

01:00:49.000 They're just lying about what Trump said.

01:00:51.000 And then Chuck Todd says to Mike Pence, well, you keep saying that the Democrats are criticizing you unfairly.

01:00:56.000 You're gaslighting us.

01:00:57.000 The unbelievable lies they will tell to get Trump are truly Trump is not the center of the universe.

01:01:01.000 I like Trump.

01:01:03.000 Okay, so don't forget, we want to hear from you.

01:01:04.000 much more.

01:01:05.000 Members of the media, the Democrats, they love Trump because it allows them to turn everything into a story about Trump when the story is not actually about Trump.

01:01:11.000 Okay, so don't forget, we want to hear from you.

01:01:13.000 Tell us who you think will win the Democratic nomination by texting either Biden, Bernie, Bloomberg, Warren to 83 400.

01:01:18.000 On Tuesday night during our Daily Wire backstage, we'll analyze the results live.

01:01:22.000 Again, text either Biden, Bernie, Bloomberg, Warren to 83400.

01:01:26.000 We will analyze the results on Daily Wire backstage this Tuesday.

01:01:29.000 We are doing Super Tuesday coverage.

01:01:31.000 And even if my wife is in labor, I will find a way to be part of that broadcast.

01:01:34.000 We will figure this thing out together.

01:01:37.000 But today is the day before Super Tuesday.

01:01:39.000 Tomorrow is a big day.

01:01:40.000 Super Tuesday, stay tuned.

01:01:41.000 We have two additional hours of content coming up later today, or we'll see you here tomorrow in preparation for Super Tuesday.

01:01:46.000 I'm Ben Shapiro.

01:01:46.000 This is The Ben Shapiro Show.

01:01:52.000 The Ben Shapiro Show is produced by Colton Haas.

01:01:54.000 Directed by Mike Joyner.

01:01:55.000 Executive producer Jeremy Boring.

01:01:57.000 Supervising producer Mathis Glover and Robert Sterling.

01:02:00.000 Assistant director Pavel Lydowsky.

01:02:02.000 Technical producer Austin Stevens.

01:02:03.000 Playback and media operated by Nick Sheehan.

01:02:06.000 Associate producer Katie Swinnerton.

01:02:07.000 Edited by Adam Siovitz.

01:02:09.000 Audio is mixed by Mike Koromina.

01:02:11.000 Hair and makeup is by Nika Geneva.

01:02:13.000 The Ben Shapiro Show is a Daily Wire production.

01:02:15.000 Copyright Daily Wire 2020.

01:02:17.000 Hey everybody, it's Andrew Klavan, host of The Andrew Klavan Show.

01:02:20.000 You know, some people are depressed because the American Republic is collapsing, the end of days is approaching, and the moon has turned to blood.

01:02:27.000 But on The Andrew Klavan Show, that's where the fun just gets started.

The Ben Shapiro Show - March 02, 2020

The Biden Comeback | Ep. 964

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