00:00:00.000Well, so much for that Iran-US memorandum of understanding.
00:00:03.000So yesterday, Iran fired on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and last night, the United States responded by striking some 80 sites in Iran.
00:00:10.000And then this morning, President Trump declared that the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States is effectively dead.
00:00:37.000We, the West, are not like them, the Iranian mullahs, and this has consequences.
00:00:41.000In just a second, I'm going to explain why that MOU was destined to fail from the beginning, what the West gets wrong about Islam, and what comes next.
00:00:57.000Well, in the least surprising news since Rosie O'Donnell came out as a lesbian, the United States resumed what it called powerful strikes on Iran last night after the Iranians began harassing ships in the Strait of Hormuz again.
00:01:10.000According to CNBC, the United States began a series of powerful strikes against Iran on Tuesday in retaliation for Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to CENTCOM.
00:01:20.000Tensions have been rising since Iran attacked vessels moving through the Strait earlier this week, with the United States also revoking a sanctions waiver on Iranian oil earlier this week.
00:01:28.000On Tuesday, CENTCOM put out a statement via X explaining the strikes that they had committed.
00:01:40.000Well, again, there was no actual real ceasefire that was going on given the fact.
00:02:00.000That Iran has been routinely harassing ships in the Strait, and the United States has also fired back against Iran for doing precisely that.
00:02:09.000While Iran has also been warning ships in the Strait of Hormuz, who played you the audio on the show for several weeks at this point, here is some more of the audio that Fox News played yesterday.
00:02:45.000So, they're not being shy, and they haven't been shy.
00:02:48.000They are in control of the Strait of Hormuz, and they are going to continue to maintain they are in control of the Strait of Hormuz.
00:02:54.000Well, because of all of that, the United States restored sanctions on Iran.
00:02:57.000According to the New York Times, the Trump administration on Tuesday revoked a waiver allowing the sale of Iranian oil after three tankers were attacked in the Strait.
00:03:05.000Last month, the Treasury Department had issued a general license allowing Iran to produce, sell, and deliver oil for two months.
00:03:11.000That exemption represented a major shift in America's approach toward Iran, which has been heavily sanctioned for decades.
00:03:15.000And we talked about it at the time, pointing out that if that had been made permanent, then Iran could have been able to reshape its economy.
00:03:21.000Now, the reality is that a temporary waiver on sanctions did not actually allow for markets to adjust.
00:03:27.000People were still not buying Iranian oil because they thought the sanctions would go back on and they did not want to be tied into contracts with Iran that would then make them subject to snapback sanctions.
00:03:36.000For example, the license that was issued, according to the New York Times, by the Treasury Department in June was designed to give Iran greater access to American currency, and it allowed American importers to buy Iranian crude oil.
00:03:46.000But it turns out that nobody really wanted to do that.
00:03:49.000Well, President Trump then came out and he said essentially the deal is over.
00:03:55.000Here he was this morning at the NATO conference in Ankara, Turkey, saying, We attacked very powerfully last night.
00:04:04.000We attacked very powerfully last night.
00:06:18.000Folks, in a second, we're going to get to how we got ourselves into this sticky situation.
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00:08:34.000They came from originally the Old Testament and then the New Testament and then church, and they make us different from other cultures.
00:08:41.000So, what are some of those values that make the West different?
00:08:44.000Well, some of those values are things like analytic thinking.
00:08:47.000And by the way, this is not rooted in some sort of theorizing.
00:08:49.000This is rooted in actual testable hypotheses about how people in the West think about problems, for example, and how people in, say, the Islamic world think about problems.
00:08:57.000So, we in the West, we like analytic thinking.
00:08:59.000We like to break problems down and then strip them of context in order to solve them.
00:09:05.000Other cultures see problems holistically, they look at relationships between problems as sort of the key to life.
00:09:10.000So, for example, we may see the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as an isolated problem with an isolated solution.
00:09:17.000We pay a little bit of a bribe money, and the Iranians let it go, and everybody goes home happy.
00:09:23.000They see the Strait of Hormuz as a problem that is part of a larger, interwoven series of problems.
00:09:28.000They see it as part of their global conquest strategy, connected with everything from shooting protesters in the streets of Tehran to the maintenance of the terrorist group Hezbollah in Lebanon to the increased power of the Houthis in Yemen and dominance over the Babamandab Strait.
00:09:47.000All those things are intertwined, according to the Iranians.
00:11:01.000And that means that agreements with people like that are not worth the paper they're printed on because they are just methods of them getting something over on you.
00:11:08.000We here in the West, we focus on internal intentions a lot.
00:11:11.000There are lots of studies to back this.
00:11:13.000In the West, our murder laws, for example, are rooted in did you intend to do it?
00:11:22.000There are a lot of other cultures where that isn't the case, where the cause of accidental death means very little when it comes to the actual punishment.
00:11:30.000Other cultures have sort of a strict liability system of morality.
00:11:33.000If you did something I don't like, I don't have to analyze your intentions.
00:11:35.000I don't have to try to get in your head.
00:11:37.000You're bad and you ought to be destroyed.
00:11:39.000So, this means that when we project our frame of mind onto other people, when we try to impute intentions to people who don't share our intentions, we make a category error.
00:12:30.000We're not like other cultures at all, which is why every single major agreement with an Islamic opponent has ended in tears unless you have completely defeated and destroyed the possibility of that Islamic opponent actually coming back and winning.
00:12:42.000Those are the only agreements that are durable at all in the history of agreements with Islamic states.
00:12:48.000We are certainly not like the Muslim theocracy in Iran.
00:12:54.000And from our perspective, they are because they don't share our way of thinking.
00:12:56.000But from their perspective, we're both crazy and also stupid and also weak because we don't think like they do, but we assume that they do.
00:13:04.000And so they look at us and we're saying things like, why can't we just focus on human flourishing?
00:13:13.000Well, the Islamic Republic of Iran believes that in the absence of the infallible 12th Imam who will arrive at the eschaton to make the world Muslim, a qualified Islamic jurist possesses the absolute divine authority to rule both the state and society to ensure fidelity to Sharia law.
00:13:35.000It can't be a democratic regime because that runs directly in the teeth of the idea that there is a divine authority absolutely invested in an Islamic jurist to rule society.
00:13:45.000This is why all of the talk about a moderate wing inside the Iranian government versus the radical wing inside the Iranian government is a bunch of nonsense.
00:13:51.000In the end, the Ayatollahs run the place.
00:13:54.000And the IRGC, which in some cases is more extreme than the Ayatollahs.
00:13:58.000The Iranian regime believes that it is their duty to prepare the entire world for the arrival of the 12th Imam.
00:14:04.000Their worldview centers on replacing the current Western led international order with a global system dominated by Islamic values.
00:14:10.000And this is where they get coalitional with Russia and China.
00:14:13.000Because again, they agree on the first step, replacing the current Western led international order, and they disagree on the second step.
00:14:23.000And Muslim states like Iran want an Islamic world order.
00:14:27.000They believe that Islam must become the dominant geopolitical and spiritual force on planet Earth and that secular, capitalist, Western systems are corrupt and destined to fail.
00:14:36.000So, what does all that mean in terms of Islamic rules for negotiation if you're negotiating a deal?
00:14:40.000Well, it means that lying, takiyah is the Islamic term for it, is totally fine in wartime.
00:14:46.000It is encouraged if it gets you to where you need to go.
00:14:50.000In the middle of the Quran, and it is praised.
00:14:53.000It means that power and perception of power are literally the only coin of the realm.
00:14:58.000If you are perceived as weak, some other tribe will come and rape your wife and sell your kids into slavery, historically speaking.
00:15:04.000Okay, so how do you make a deal with people who think like this, whose set of incentives is different, whose logical thinking is different, whose approach to negotiation is totally different?
00:15:13.000The only way to make a successful deal with people who think like this is to totally and completely devastate their capacity to win.
00:15:21.000You have to crush their hope for victory.
00:15:57.000Well, because not only was Israel not destroying its opposition, Israel was offering them hope and an olive branch that they could destroy Israel.
00:16:05.000The only way to have a successful agreement in the Middle East is for one side to be so thoroughly devastated that the only way out is to basically give up the ghost and try to play it as a win.
00:16:15.000And by the way, even if you do, you might get shot by your own people because that's what happened to Anwar al Sadat in Egypt when he did this with Menachem Begin in Israel.
00:16:23.000And this is why the MOU was bound to fail because we didn't do that.
00:16:27.000Now, President Trump looked at Iran on an absolute level and he kept saying, they're dead, right?
00:16:32.000Dead economy, military basically defenestrated, ballistic missile facilities gone, missile launchers tremendously damaged, nuclear facilities blown up, a navy at the bottom of the sea, a leadership class entirely dead.
00:16:46.000And he said, okay, well, I guess they're defeated.
00:16:47.000Now it's time for them to negotiate their surrender.
00:16:49.000Here's what they saw an America that wanted to negotiate, an America that was afraid to finish them off, an America that was not going to forcibly open the strait and, in fact, was begging for the strait to be opened, begging them for the strait to be opened.
00:17:03.000Okay, so that's why the MOU was going to fail because total misalignment.
00:17:08.000And that requires us to answer another question.
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00:20:15.000That he was trying to will into reality this fiction that Iran would somehow accept publicly that the United States controls the Strait of Hormuz.
00:20:22.000That's the thing he was selling publicly.
00:20:23.000And that's what President Trump was selling, presumably because JD Vance and Steve Witkopf and Jared Kushner told him that that was the case.
00:20:42.000Supposedly, according to people on the left and the woke right, Israel is the bad ally.
00:20:47.000Israel is flying literal sorties alongside the United States and essentially acquiescing to the demands of the United States on every level.
00:20:54.000Meanwhile, the Saudis, who do nothing, literally nothing, the Saudi royal government has American bases there defending them.
00:21:02.000And they said to the United States, you can't use our bases to open the strait.
00:21:09.000We should have just told them there are bases and we'll do with them what we please.
00:21:13.000In any case, there was never any agreement by Iran to open the strait.
00:21:18.000So again, either JD Vance is really, really naive and he thought that the Iranians were good, solid people, and the Pakistanis, he loves the Pakistanis, he loves Pakistan.
00:21:26.000Doesn't matter that Pakistan and Iran are hand in glove, doesn't matter that the prime minister of Pakistan literally went to Iran over the weekend and pledged fealty to the Iranian government.
00:21:37.000It doesn't matter for these negotiators that Qatar is an Iranian cutout.
00:21:44.000Or, all these negotiators basically knew that the Iranians were never going to agree that the Strait of Hormuz was open.
00:21:51.000And they were fibbing to the president to try to get President Trump to buy into letting the Iranians off the hook, hoping that the Iranians would basically tap this out over time.
00:22:27.000Everyone knows that's their big weapon.
00:22:30.000Lose the Strait and it's over and they know it.
00:22:32.000So they were never going to sign a piece of paper admitting that they didn't control the Strait, the only thing that keeps them relevant.
00:22:39.000We spent months hammering the regime, Air Force, Navy, missile sites, nuclear program.
00:22:43.000That was the exact moment to press, not to sign an MOU, because the moment you see weakness from Iran is the moment you ought to show aggression, because that's the way they think.
00:22:55.000Put yourself in the side of the other, put yourself in the shoes of the other side, and then think like they do.
00:23:01.000Instead, we showed up as dumb Westerners and shook their hand and looked for mutually beneficial arrangements.
00:23:07.000Listen, if Iran wanted to engage in mutually beneficial arrangements with the West, they could have done so any time over the course of the last.
00:23:32.000All they had to do was just open up and not fund gigantic terror apparatuses around the Middle East and not try to overthrow surrounding regimes.
00:23:45.000They could have normalized anytime they wanted to.
00:23:52.000We extended a handshake and they slapped us in the face, which is absolutely predictable.
00:23:56.000So, here are three things that we need to take away from all of this.
00:24:00.000First, they do not think like us, they don't think like us.
00:24:06.000They have a different worldview, they have a different theology.
00:24:08.000And projecting our thinking onto them is not just wrong, it is catastrophically stupid because they do not think the way we do.
00:24:19.000Two, there is no such thing as a good agreement with an evil enemy unless you absolutely force them to the floor.
00:24:25.000And third, it is now time to force them to the floor.
00:24:27.000If this is just another of the myriad twists and turns in the journey of life, if it turns out that this is just a prelude to another set of dumb negotiations where we completely misinterpret what they want, and this is just a prelude to, oh no, the MOU is still on, it was just tit for tat, then this will not end and it will not get better.
00:24:46.000And believe you me, right around the time of the election, the Iranians will shut the straight to screw Trump right before the midterms because they know that the Democrats will be far friendlier.
00:25:03.000If you think that the U.S. military does not have contingency plans for opening the Strait of Hormuz along with our allies, you're out of your mind.
00:25:41.000But here's the thing we should not do demonstrate weakness by going back to the table and pretending, once again, that they are reasonable, rational people.
00:25:48.000The greatest prize you can hand to Islamic terrorist regimes is the perception that they are rational actors in the way that we mean rational actors.
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